Allow me to anticipate the flood of troll comments sponsored by shekels and “smart” boys:
– If you find yourself asking why Russia isn’t taking the shaheed path of “big arrow offensives,” you are simply far too ignorant of the past decade to matter. Advanced ISR from NATO would ordinarily be an untold boon for guerilla fighters. Thankfully, Ukraine is led by foreign agents who insist on WWI style defense and hasbara narratives which cannot deviate from unwarranted optimism, all while the families of Ukraine’s leaders are safely in Tel Aviv.
– Conversely, cabinet shuffles are absolutely standard in most governments with non-lifetime terms of office. Still more when you have elderly ministers representing their country for more than a decade.
– The West does not have infinite money to solve this. Even if you like Marxism too much to have any knowledge of current Western bond markets, most Western countries but ESPECIALLY the United States require vast sums of money to fuel any expansion of their hopelessly corrupt MIC. Political reforms, industrial training, and capital investment could solve the shrunken NATO industrial capacity- but that will take years. All while China can effortlessly switch its “overcapacity” from providing vital NATO consumer goods to building weapons efficiently.

Posted by: They Call Me Mister | May 13 2024 16:50 utc | 4

Today’s Russian Defence Ministry report, with a horrendous number of Ukrainian troop losses, ~1400: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12512793@egNews

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
The Sever Group of Forces has improved the tactical situation and delivered strikes at manpower and hardware of the 125th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Volchansk, Neskuchnoye, Liptsy, and Veseloye (Kharkov region). In addition, five counter-attacks of AFU assault groups were repelled close to Glubokoye and Tikhoye (Kharkov region).
The enemy’s losses amounted to up to 250 Ukrainian troops, two tanks, two armoured fighting vehicles, and 17 motor vehicles.
In counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops hit one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, Buk-M1 and Strela-10 anti-aircraft systems, as well as four MLRS launchers, to include Uragan, Czech-made Vampire, and Croatian-made RAK-SA-12.
The Zapad Group of Forces has taken more advantageous lines and inflicted fire damage on the 63rd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 117th Territorial Defence Brigade near Kirovsk and Torskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic). Thirteen counter-attacks of the 4th Tank, 3rd, 21st, 63rd, 116th mechanised, 77th Airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and 4th National Guard Brigade were repelled by the Russian Armed Forces near Kislovka (Kharkov region), Nevskoye, Novoyegorovka, Makeyevka, and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The enemy lost up to 80 Ukrainian troops, two infantry fighting vehicles, three pick-up trucks, two 152-mm Msta-B howitzers, and one 152-mm Giatsint-S gun.
The Yug Group of Forces has improved the situation along the front line and delivered strikes at manpower and hardware of the 79th Air Assault Brigade and the 81st Airmobile Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kleshcheyevka, Antonovka, and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Over the past 24 hours, the Armed Forces of Ukraine [this is as it appeared on the site – JRL] have repelled three counter-attacks of assault groups of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade and the 41st Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Spornoye and Razdolovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 540 Ukrainian troops, two tanks, including the German-made Leopard-2A1, two armoured fighting vehicles, 11 motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 gun, and one 105-mm Melara Mod 56 self-propelled artillery system.
The Tsentr Group of Forces have improved the tactical situation as a result of successful actions and inflicted fire damage on units of the 24th, 47th, and 100th mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Novosyolovka Pervaya, Katerinovka, and Novopokrovskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic). The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation repelled seven counter-attacks launched by the 92nd Assault, 142nd Infantry, 68th, 71st jaeger, 24th, 110th mechanised brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Shumy, Ocheretino, and Netaylovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to more than 395 Ukrainian troops, three armoured fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, and one Croatian-made 122-mm RAK-SA-12 MLRS launcher.
The Vostok Group of Forces has taken more advantageous lines and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the AFU 21st National Guard Brigade near Velikaya Novosyolka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 135 Ukrainian troops, one tank, five motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one UK-made 155-mm AS-90 Braveheart self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one 100-mm Rapira anti-tank gun.
The Dnepr Group of Forces has engaged the AFU 65th Mechanised Brigade, the 35th Marine Brigade, the 121st Territorial Defence Brigade close to Orekhov (Zaporozhye region), Ivanovka, Tyaginka, and Zolotaya Balka (Kherson region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 55 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 129 areas during the day.
One Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force was downed by Russia’s air defence forces. In addition, 33 unmanned aerial vehicles, six Tochka-U tactical missiles, 39 projectiles of Olkha, Chezh-made Vampire, and U.S.-made HIMARS, five French-made Hammer guided bombs, five U.S.-made HARM anti-radiation missiles, and four UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles have been shot down over the past 24 hours.
In total, 596 airplanes and 274 helicopters, 24,020 unmanned aerial vehicles, 518 air defence missile systems, 16,008 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,295 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 9,545 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 21,678 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 13 2024 16:54 utc | 6

Doctorow is always worth reading, softly spoken and directly from Russia his overall impressions are full of revealing details. And his opinion is that corruption in the Ministry of Defense did it to Shoigu, plus I insist family problems that during times of war are not very well received by the general population. And that is why Prigozhin got the regular folks ear, we still do not know the full details of the supposed insurrection, probably we will never know, sort of a JFK event. Doctorow’s general impression is that Russia is succeeding in providing guns and butter. Another aspect to be considered is Shoigu’s origin, from Tuva the most depressed and impoverished region in Russia and a big provider of manpower to the armed forces, maybe that’s the reason why Putin kept him on in spite of the scandals, but time to efficiently manage resources has come and it seems the new guy is there right choice for the task.
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/05/13/the-kharkov-offensive-and-the-replacement-of-shoigu-as-defense-minister/

Posted by: Paco | May 13 2024 17:23 utc | 8

They Call Me Mister@4….the money isn’t in any printing machine, its in Russia’s resources…west will play long game, Russia can kill, kill, kill and wait, for the collapse or west drags out long enough for it get to some ammo parity, the Brits signed on for 100 years, that’s long game again, so maybe in 5 to 7 years, west will still be agitating Russia and if grinder can maintain minimum supply, times no territory taken, no one, save for a few kind hearted souls, no one cares a Fiddler’s fig how many Ukie die on any given day.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 13 2024 17:24 utc | 10

The West does not have infinite money to solve this. Even if you like Marxism too much to have any knowledge of current Western bond markets, most Western countries but ESPECIALLY the United States require vast sums of money to fuel any expansion of their hopelessly corrupt MIC

Posted by: They Call Me Mister | May 13 2024 16:50 utc | 4
Indeed, and most Western countries require vast sums just to re-finance their existing debt! All those short- and medium-term duration bonds that had a When Issued of sub-2% are going to be rolling over into an environment of 4+ or even 5+%.
I’m going to pinch @psychohistorian’s motto again: “The sh¡tshow continues, until it doesn’t”.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 13 2024 17:47 utc | 12

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 13 2024 18:02 utc | 13
Not just F-16s. Estonia is seriously considering sending troops to free up more Ukrainian soldiers to fight at the front. Germany is sending another Patriot system and more Iris-Ts. Ukraine’s allies are stepping up. This is why everyone wants to join NATO. They actually look after each other. Unlike the BRICS clowns.

Posted by: bored | May 13 2024 18:07 utc | 14

Estonia is seriously considering sending troops to free up more Ukrainian soldiers to fight at the front.
Posted by: bored | May 13 2024 18:07 utc | 14

The question is, how many of its 15 soldiers can Estonia spare? So many questions.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 13 2024 18:13 utc | 16

Paco | May 13 2024 17:23 utc | 8–
I have a different interpretation of the promotions that have occurred. There’s no “punishment” related to any of the repositioning of players. Patrushev earned his promotion to retired elder statesman and was replaced by Shoigu, not his deputy Medvedev. And as fate would have it, the Security Council met today, and here’s what we’re allowed to know:

Vladimir Putin: Now we will talk about a topic that is always for us priority in the external sphere is building relations with our closest, with the independent states formed in the post-Soviet Space. The Minister of Finance and I [Anton Siluanov] said that in Russia’s new political cycle, we must pay even more attention to this and talk about how we will organise this work from all points of view, including organisational ones.
We will return to this later, but now in fact, let’s start this conversation, this discussion on one of the aspects of this multi-vector work.
I give the floor to the Foreign Minister. You are welcome Sergei Viktorovich [Lavrov]Please.

Missing was the usual attendance roster. I wrote an anticipation of the need to draw the Near Abroad closer to Mother Russia based on what I was reading and events I was seeing. The EAEU Supreme Economic Council Summit was very revealing in that regard as well as recent CIS and CSTO meetings.
Lavrov’s answer at a meeting of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs regarding the upcoming conference in Switzerland revealed nothing new with the press reporting his saying this twice:
“Our cause is just. If they want to go to the “battlefield”, then it will be so. Look at how they are now “lamenting” about the steady broad advance of our Armed Forces.”
It would be excellent to know what he told the Security Council, but I don’t see it changing its mode of operation or its outlook with the promotions. IMO, much of the reporting is trying to capitalize on the very slim (Western-style) sensationalism present. Where’re the press reports playing up the Communist’s opposition to Mishustin remaining as PM? There’s no “juice” present there.
And before the promotions were announced there was a very important meeting between Putin and Acting Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and the General Director of the State Corporation Rostec Sergey Chemezov of which only the following was reported:

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Dear Colleagues!
Just recently, at a meeting with the Government–Denis V. Manturov heard what I was saying–said that we should not have any disruptions in our current work until the new Government is formed.
The complex that Denis Valentinovich is in charge of – the entire industry, both the defence industry and the civilian industry – everything is concentrated here.
A significant amount of work is being done in this area within the framework of Rostec, and I would like to talk to you now about how this work is being organized now and how we plan to build it in the near future.
I know that a lot has been done, established, everything is functioning, but there are also questions, that require special attention. We will dwell on them today.

IMO, the discussion centered around how the new players would interact with the already existing structure as neither Manturov or Chemezov are going anywhere. Rather, take note how this meeting isn’t included in any of the sensationalized news reports. The decrees as published by the Kremlin regarding Patrushev and Shoigu are just dry notices devoid of any real meaning, but the press is using “removed” as a pejorative. Pundits must flap their gums and lips just as in the West, unfortunately.
As usual, Putin has already discussed what’s to be done prior to the moves being made public so there’s no grounds for rancor whatsoever. The new Defense Minister is supposedly outlining his priorities, but you can be sure they are actually Putin’s: “Andrey Belousov highlighted the need to reduce red tape and improve the welfare of military personnel.”

Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2024 18:22 utc | 18

Ukraine’s allies are stepping up.
Too little too late.
They actually look after each other.
LMAO, they’re being strong-armed to empty their cupboards in order to delay the inevitable. The US & EU clowns in charge know it’s not Europe at risk, it’s their own corrupt necks.
The BRICS have been supporting Russia throughout in the UN and via trade, but since Russia’s manufacturing capacity and manpower already far outstrips the West they have no need for the penny-ante virtue signaling rampant among the NATO members.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 13 2024 18:35 utc | 20

I think it is possible that Shoigu is being side-lined to make way for return of Surovikin.
Prigozin was not pleased with Shoigu.
It does not appear that this was an planned change.
I think that this is what happens when people are not able to speak freely.
The suggestion by Rybar and Slavyangrad is that there is lots of corruption incompetence in Russian military.
Much like the Ukraine military and US government, I suppose.

Posted by: jared | May 13 2024 18:39 utc | 22

About coup attempts, turmoil and caos manufacturing by US Intel in ukraine:
Gli Stati Uniti valutavano di infiltrare incursori e destabilizzare l’Ucraina già nel 1957
A study where to create a successful insurrrection Is included.
https://www.analisidifesa.it/2022/12/gli-stati-uniti-valutavano-di-infiltrare-incursori-e-destabilizzare-lucraina-gia-nel-1957/

Posted by: Mry | May 13 2024 18:44 utc | 24

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 13 2024 18:10 utc | 15
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 13 2024 18:36 utc | 21
Ah, my apologies to both, my use of the phrase was not intended to cause unlooked-for friction between two posters whose contributions I respect and enjoy.
I just saw it as a pithy and more down-to earth version of “That which cannot be sustained will not be sustained”; something which applies equally to Western debt levels and Ukrainian losses of personnel/equipment.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 13 2024 19:07 utc | 26

The west need a long bloody war and they have it. In spite of financial problems they can still print money.
That ability is the most important in this war.
The western economy is still holding

Posted by: vargas | May 13 2024 19:16 utc | 28

Posted by: vargas | May 13 2024 19:16 utc | 28
Nobody can print money, just like nobody can print Ukrainian troops, print ammunition for Ukraine, print artillery barrels, print Patriot batteries, or print F-16s.
Sure, currency can be printed, but that doesn’t solve anything, it makes matters worse.
I’ll leave it there, getting deep into this will drag things off-topic.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 13 2024 19:27 utc | 30

Posted by: Ed4 | May 13 2024 12:51 utc | 277
The much smaller that I stated was the difference between “KIA” and “casualties”.
Medizona numbers are for KIA and they run about 100 RF a day.
Group that more or less mirrors Medizona for Ukraine: https://ualosses.org/en/soldiers/
============================================
Total BS
First, the Russian losses on Mediazone are not about 100/day:
As of May 9,2024 – it is 810 days and 52789 KIA which is equal to 65.2 KIA or exaggeration from your side of 53%+
Between 11 and 25 April the KIA were 1208 or 86/day
For the last update- from Apr.26 to May 9 the KIA are 1110 or 79/day.
These cover the last 4 weeks or the period for significant russia gains with perhaps more than 20 villages taken
Now about the “ualosses.org” that you are pushing as similar to Mediazone – thus is purely Budanov disinformation campaing
First – the site has been registered on Dec.26, 2023 at 10:20:20 UTS.
This is way too early in the morning for any USA or Canadian based organization, given that it is the day after Christmas. Not very probable for a Europe-based organization, but it is early afternoon in Ukraine.
They felt that they needed to do something to counter the fact that people see the growing numbers of flags in the cemeteries and simply wont believe the Zelencky number of 31,000 killed Ukrainians
They use hosted service by cloudflare and the SSL sertificate is by Google Trust Services. The IP address for the domain is 172.67.183.36
Now you are aware that there is a law that prohibits the Ukrainians to take pictures of the Russian rockets attacks and to post them online.
I suspect the secondary purpose of this domain ualosses.org is to be used as honeypot – every Ukrainian, reporting a dead relative name there will have his IP address logged and perhaps be investigated by their security services, especially if there are suspicions the there could be other male relatives in hiding
And the Ukrainian can claim that their losses are comparable with the Russian one.
This is why this site is pushed on Reddit and similar pro-ukrainian propaganda sites and by people like Ed4

Posted by: IhaveseenanUFO | May 13 2024 19:34 utc | 32

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | May 13 2024 19:25 utc | 29
Wow! That is some weapons-grade copium from the Express. Beats me what is going on with the Western Wurlitzer at the moment. On the one hand we have pieces like the one b featured recently from The Economist plus other pieces from so-called highbrow outlets that seem to be trying to soften up their audience for some bad news, then we have this “rah-rah” nonsense from the lower end of the market.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 13 2024 19:48 utc | 34

AFP: US sanctions test China’s ‘no limits’ friendship with Russia
Chinese banks are tightening scrutiny over trade with Russia for fear of incurring strict new US sanctions over the Ukraine war, testing the “no limits” friendship between the two countries.
It is the question at which moment China is going to reduce its support to Russia.

Posted by: vargas | May 13 2024 20:06 utc | 36

is sending another Patriot system and more Iris-Ts.
Posted by: bored | May 13 2024 18:07 utc | 14
—
To replace the Patriot system that found its way to China?
https://t.me/jnb_news/48474

Posted by: too scents | May 13 2024 20:16 utc | 38

It is the question at which moment China is going to reduce its support to Russia.
Wishful thinking as usual. Xi’s just told both Blinken & Macron GFY.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 13 2024 20:20 utc | 40

Posted by: Ed4 | May 13 2024 20:06 utc | 35
All well and good, but doesn’t explain how the Express linked earlier by @Christian J Chuba | May 13 2024 19:25 utc | 29 get their totals for Russian losses. In your view are they quoting a credible number?
~~~
Posted by: vargas | May 13 2024 20:06 utc | 36
AFP = Agence France Presse, obviously an unbiased source with no underlying agenda to its reporting…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 13 2024 20:22 utc | 42

This is why everyone wants to join NATO. They actually look after each other.
Posted by: bored | May 13 2024 18:07 utc | 14
This belief of yours would actually explain a number of your posts.

Posted by: Passerby | May 13 2024 20:30 utc | 44

RUAF control the settlement west of Vovchansk and all bridges between Vovchansk and Kharkov are either controlled by RUAF or destroyed. Reminder that the nazi battalions were sent to defend Vovchansk (undoubtedly a convenient opportunity to get rid of them).
One video from the morning showed AFU Bradley attacking in the north of Vovchansk, but by the evening the third of the town, north of the river was already completely under RUAF control.

Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2024 20:40 utc | 46

No ‘bored’ the west cannot win the long game, because its long game-imperialism- is coming to an end after centuries in which it plundered Asia, Africa and America.
The source of its strength is drying up: look at what has happened to just one of those western countries- France- in Africa, just in the past few months. France has lost its source of the cheap nuclear fuel that gave its economy a real advantage.
NATO is hanging on: Germany’s economy is in real trouble, its society riddled by intellectual corruption, is crumbling away. And Britain is in even worse shape.
They aren’t pouring weaponry and marine commandos into Ukraine because they are playing a long game and love Kiev’s ‘democratic values’, they are desperate gamblers throwing good money after bad and hoping against hope that the laws of physics will change and the Nazi tribute act in Kiev will turn into a means of doing to Russia what China, India and the rest of the world will no longer countenance being done to them.
As to the Godfather of NATO et al, what more need be said about the United States than that it has a choice between Biden and Trump in prospect, add to that its cack handed inability to deal with an outbreak of rabies in ‘Israel’ and any thought of a ‘long game’ involving that entity dissolves.
One thing about discussions here never changes: there are always some people arguing that the US and its military dominate the globe, and that, in the end, what Washington wants will prevail. On these people, and ‘bored’ is one of them ‘vargas’ another, reality has no impact.
China isn’t going to reduce its support for Russia. Estonian troops (half of whom are likely to be Russians) are not going to turn the tide in the Donbas. F-choose a number, aircraft are not going to make a difference.
The war in Ukraine may not be over but the result is clear: Russia won. All that remains is the plebiscites to find out how many Ukrainians are deeply attached to the new ‘Western-style’ society that came with the Maidan, the banning of all opposition, the kidnapping of boys in the streets, the corruption, the disappearances and the torture dungeons, the pauperisation, the unemployment, the hunger and the vast expanse of new cemetries.. and how many would rather throw in their lot with Eurasia. And the future.

Posted by: bevin | May 13 2024 20:46 utc | 48

From Intel Slavs Z:
Russian military telegram channels report that the head of the Main Personnel Directorate (GUK) of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov, former head of the 8th Directorate of the General Staff (HRT service) has been detained.

Posted by: Mary | May 13 2024 20:51 utc | 50

„Estonia is seriously considering sending troops to free up more Ukrainian soldiers to fight at the front…“
Posted by: bored | May 13 2024 18:07 utc | 14
Estonia has some 4‘000 active soldiers.
At the current rate of Ukrainian losses that‘s about 2-3 days.
They have some more reserves… but I gess you get the point.

Posted by: NoName | May 13 2024 21:01 utc | 52

Bored @ 14:
Did you actually mean to say that Estonia was preparing to return all the Ukrainian refugees in its territory to Ukraine? Estonian PM Kaja Kallas had been making some noises about doing that.
It’s difficult to see why Estonia would risk send its own troops into Ukraine unless they were part of a combined NATO force or instructed to do so by Washington, London or Brussels.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | May 13 2024 21:22 utc | 54

Did someone order a Johnny Cab?
https://t.me/intelslava/60033

🇺🇦 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Kiev this week.
Apparently, everything is very bad in Ukraine.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 13 2024 21:36 utc | 56

And the Ukrainian can claim that their losses are comparable with the Russian one.
This is why this site is pushed on Reddit and similar pro-ukrainian propaganda sites and by people like Ed4
Posted by: IhaveseenanUFO | May 13 2024 19:34 utc | 32
and to all others discussing it.
Till the end of March 2024, for RF KIA the mediazona 54 k is indeed a probable absolute minimum, being also equal to the total excess mortality of RF since february 2022.
I would probably place the probable RF KIA within 77-83K until march 2024.
And yes, 1.56 was the multiplier that seemed correct for the bare minimum numbers to reach the probable limit. (it held on the first probate study long ago, seems to keep holding)
I also believe that the number of out of combat WIA in thee RF should be close to the KIA number (long term with reasonable care its 2 or little more). So 150K?
Now for the AFU, for 02/2022-03/2023 I would be hard pressed to accept a global number under a round million for the same period (KIA+WIA beyond repair). But it wouldn’t surprise me if they were pressing wounded to fight beyond reasonable discharge and a completely different ratio.
As already mentioned, Shoigu’s numbers were probably understated as they concerned KIA as seen from the front.
Now, if there is one thing ukraine has kept a very heavy lid is its AFU KIA… the site mentioned is unlikely to have any relevance.

Posted by: Newbie | May 13 2024 21:57 utc | 58

Posted by: petra | May 13 2024 21:30 utc | 55 Telling to see so many Americans incomprehending at the notion of a non-military man as minister of defence. Out here in the Nonamerican World, cabinet is an organ of the civil state. Military men in cabinet? Best left for military juntas, martial law and banana republics.
The thing is, a civilian minister of defence / secretary of war is also the norm for the United States. That this becomes a such a topic of debate is thus not about the bureacratic norms of the USA, but the degree of ignorance of its populace. I suspect that if pressed, there would not necessarily be a large majority insisting with high certainty that military leadership is the norm. It is more the impulse to continue to flow of discourse, blindly assembling thoughts based on word-logic alone. These same people also have practically no understanding of Russian governmental organization or norms, to include the recent constitutional changes. Most of which is not salient in terms of denouncing or approving Russia as entity under US appraisal, yet of course is basic knowledge to make any informed comment. Yet with base of ignorance, instinct tells them that every factoid they are aware of is especially important and relevant to their end judgement (which is largely already decided).
Similarly, you saw in recent move by Russians to take a few border villages near Kharkiv, it being judged in bombastic terms as being necessarily the proof of total Russian failure in war, the only alternative in their analysis being a total success. Why was this particular front at this particular moment in time so especially important? Because that´s what´s in front of their nose, and since their righteousness is already assured, they only need to express an opinion. After all, even if they end up wrong, they are still right in some inscrutable essence.

Posted by: ccc | May 13 2024 22:17 utc | 60

One thing about discussions here never changes: there are always some people arguing that the US and its military dominate the globe, and that, in the end, what Washington wants will prevail. On these people, and ‘bored’ is one of them ‘vargas’ another, reality has no impact.
Posted by: bevin | May 13 2024 20:46 utc | 48
I do not argue that USA would win.
I am just saying that there is no credible evidence that the western block is failing, or that Ukraine has almost collapsed.
When I see extensive financial social and crisis in the West, when I see riots and wage slaves absenting their work and when I see massive surrender of Ukro army, then I ll believe it.

Posted by: vargas | May 13 2024 22:21 utc | 62

@ karlof1 | May 13 2024 20:15 utc who said:

What I see is Belousov being a better manager of rubles and kopeks

Karlof1: I know you know what follows below, but I’m going to say it again just to (hopefully) provoke additional conversation.
Belousov is way, way more than a ruble-and-kopec allocator. He’s a production-capacity-builder. He knows what to build, in what sequence, and how to connect these industrial capacities for maximum effect.
I’m pretty sure that’s what he is, and why Putin installed him where-and-when.
===
Russia is getting into 2nd gear industrially. The SMO and the attacks from the West has enabled a great deal of political house-cleaning in Russia, which (this is my speculation) Mr. Putin has been preparing for, planning for, moving people into and out of key positions for .. for decades.
Putin finally has:
a. Political acclaim and results enough to have earned the faith and (more importantly) the enthusiasm of the Russian people. They are behind him, and for good, solid, tangible reasons
b. The right people in place (for all the reasons you (Karlof1) detailed earlier on the subject of recruiting and staff development)
c. The oligarchs that own the big enterprises are now on-board, or gone
d. The industrial machinery. The factories, the supply lines, the skilled workforce. All there _enough_ to provide the infrastructure for Second Gear industrial integration
What Russia needs next is to acquire and install the very latest industrial machinery and processes and materials transit arteries, and for that … there used to be Germany (now gone) and now there’s China.
===
Sidebar: Germany, you made a bad decision there. This is gonna cost you. You realize, of course, that you were a pawn, removed from the board, which would have done for Russia what China will now do. U.S. didn’t just remove cheap energy from Germany; it also took Germany’s industrial prowess away from Russia. Now we just have a frustrated West and a broken Germany. Great work all around.
===
And this is China-Russia Industrial Upgrade (2nd gear) is why I flagged that piece about Mr. Andrei Belousov being the central figure in the Russia-China industrial integration.
This Russia-China industrial integration is exactly _what_ the West is so very fearful of, so very adamant to prevent. This integration – this interior, not-subject-to-naval-intervention – cooperation between Russia and China is what MacKinder was so worried about. MacKinder warned the West about Asian integration in 1904 … and now, here it is.
Long ago, I said “Russia and China need to concentrate on economic integration. That’s the one thing the West fears most, is trying to prevent, and that’s the one thing they need to do”.
That’s the locus of the war. This Asian industrial integration constitutes the epicenter of the West .vs. the Rest game.
And now the scenario has been set up, the players are in place, the machinery’s in place, and things are going to move a bit faster than people expect.
Putin may well take a place next to his hero, Peter the Great.
======
What the West needs now is to find their own Peter the Great. But first, we have to discard a lot of dead-weight, boat-anchor make-pretend leaders.
Did I mention “boat-anchor”?

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 13 2024 22:40 utc | 64

Bidensky has asked the brigades in Donbass to contribute one batallion each to Kharkov. A patchwork defense. Units that don’t know each other, supposed to fight in unison. Against an enemy that does act in unison and has prepared for attacking this particular region.
For once Bidensky doesn’t keep up appearances but is letting the doom and gloom show.

Posted by: Hegar | May 13 2024 22:49 utc | 66

Posted by: Peter A1 | May 13 2024 19:32 utc | 31
Thanks for your former opinion and sorry to disappoint you, but that’s my gut feeling, that the insurrection event is not clear at all, and rumours about corruption in the defense ministry are not new, even before the SMO. Let us suppose that the minister himself was not involved, in any case he would be guilty of negligence when his deputy is leading a very extravagant and luxurious lifestyle while a lot of people under their command are dying.

Posted by: Paco | May 13 2024 22:54 utc | 68

Estonia has some 4‘000 active soldiers.
At the current rate of Ukrainian losses that‘s about 2-3 days.
They have some more reserves… but I gess you get the point.
Posted by: NoName | May 13 2024 21:01 utc | 52
——————
That would make it a good time for the local Russians, to start their own Baltic republic. With vodka & caviar.
Seriously though the Baltic states will most likely, die on their own due to de-population.
The Western think-tank-media-complex, occasionally farts about Russian demographic issues. Even though the number of people living in the ole RSFSR are higher than in Soviet times.
The Latvian & Lithuanians lost between 25% to 35% of their population, Estonia is doing a bit better but is also the smallest of the three by far. All are much healthier than glorious democratic Banderastan.
If Russia had the same outcomes, you’d never not hear about how apocalyptically s**t their situation is and how the wicked Kremlin regime has (adjusted for scale) cannibalized & run off about 30 to 40 million people.

Posted by: Urban Fox | May 13 2024 23:00 utc | 70

RE: 🇺🇦 “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Kiev this week.
Apparently, everything is very bad in Ukraine.”
Posted by: anon2020 | May 13 2024 21:36 utc | 56
Probably Blinken just going to inform Zelensky who the next “Interim” President will be when he expires in the 21st.
Guessing Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pratt will take it from here….
That’s why she left State Dept….
Of course, Juan Guido is also available.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 13 2024 23:39 utc | 72

Busy today. Have just enough time to swing by for my daily update by anonymous reporting the 000000000000000.00000001? Of Ukraine now owned by Russia.

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 13 2024 23:43 utc | 74

Paco | May 13 2024 22:54 utc | 68
Best you check which defense roll Shoigu retains and what roll was played by the official charged with corruption. You seem to have little understanding of Russian leadership, preferring rumor and projection.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 14 2024 0:30 utc | 76

It is the question at which moment China is going to reduce its support to Russia.
Wishful thinking as usual. Xi’s just told both Blinken & Macron GFY.
It is laughable. They always make it sound like by backing Russia China is doing something wrong, like siding with the Dark side of the Force or like a substitute teacher helping out the unredeemable student. Their colonial/imperial mindset never allows them to accept that it is completely legitimate, not only for China but for any other country, to take sides with a power they don’t like or approve.

Posted by: gatobart | May 14 2024 0:50 utc | 78

Sadly it seems clear to me that surovkin was partially implicated in the prizoghin mutiny. Seems he may have had some good reason for gripes with shoigu or his department. Sent to Africa and to the Caucasus out of politics but Not jailed.
However such a skilled guy will not be wasted. Now the election is over putin and co probably feel it is safe to bring him back.

Posted by: Watcher | May 14 2024 1:02 utc | 80

I know comets are to be forebears of catastrophic changes. However, what does the appearance of the Aurora Borealis in regions far South of its normal range protend?
Anyone care to harp on this?

Posted by: Jerr | May 14 2024 1:37 utc | 82

I know comets are to be forebears of catastrophic changes. However, what does the appearance of the Aurora Borealis in regions far South of its normal range protend?
Anyone care to harp on this?
Posted by: Jerr | May 14 2024 1:37 utc | 82
* [=======] * [========] *
Actually, I saw someone somewhere (can’t find ut now, alas) suggest that this more-Southern-than-usual Northern Lights display was indeed the result of HAARP-ing. Does anyone else have better info?

Posted by: John Anthony La Piet | May 14 2024 1:58 utc | 84

Jerr | May 14 2024 1:37 utc | 82
It ‘protends’ that you are superstitious.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 14 2024 2:01 utc | 86

Sadly it seems clear to me that surovkin was partially implicated in the prizoghin mutiny.
Posted by: Watcher | May 14 2024 1:02 utc | 80
I don’t think so. There’s a fine line between a strong nationalism and nationalist extremism. Kadyrov also backed or supported Prizoghin for a time. Wagner according to Larry Johnson was a GRU operation. Much of what they did, at least prior to SMO, would have been closely monitored, if not the initiative, of Putin.
As a civilian/PMC figleaf for the Russian foreign legion, Prizoghin likely performed well or at the very least, satisfactorily. He lost the plot with the SMO.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 14 2024 2:17 utc | 88

Peter
I agree. I said partially implicated not anactive role
Sorovkin is a nationalist and did not like shoigu. Supportive of prizes but not I suspect when it morphed to mutiny.
Never liked or trusted prizzy.self serving mercenary,robably murderer and all.round spiv.
Wanted to be president

Posted by: Watcher | May 14 2024 2:39 utc | 90

@ Jerr | May 14 2024 2:45 utc | 91
It portends you and you butt buddy at #84 are thread hijackers
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 14 2024 3:04 utc | 92

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1789683632728371610
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 13 2024 20:41 utc | 47
Interesting graph of electricity production in the world.
You can see electricity production in Europe (excl. EU) is falling. Ukrainia.
But also US and EU electricity production is falling. Hard. Does this mean a collapse in industrial manufacturing, not compensated by an increase in arms manufacturing?
And yes, US and EU GDP is largely fictitious. One thing is counting price inflation as growth. (GDP deflactor vs. inflation).
Another thing: German GDP is predicted to grow 0.1% over 2024. But prostitution, drug smuggling and arms trafficking are counted as part of German GDP. This means an arbitrary number is added to GDP.

Posted by: Passerby | May 14 2024 5:15 utc | 94

@Passerby | May 13 2024 18:33 utc | 19

My impression from the region was that Finns were seen by fellow Scandinavians as “Russians”, and that Lithuanians were seen by Russians as “Germans”.

Nonsense. First of all, the Finns are not Scandinavians. Scandinavia is Norway, Sweden and Denmark. However, the Nordic countries are comprised of the 3 Scandinavian countries + Finland and Iceland.
Finland is a Nordic country and has been so all my life. The Finnish language is completely different from the Scandinavian languages (which are mutually intelligible), but many Finns speak Swedish.
The long period of the Finnish president Uhro Kekkonen (died 1986) established Finland as a neutral country and a natural member of the Nordic countries. Certainly, the Finns were not seen as “Russians” from the perspective of the other Nordic countries.
What has happened in recent years with Finland joining EU and now NATO is in my opinion a tragedy for Finlands reputation and long term independence.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 14 2024 5:22 utc | 96

@kupkee | May 13 2024 19:03 utc | 25

“Everyone” wants to join NATO so the beleaguered American Taxpayer can subsidize Europe.

You must be fun at parties. The US wants “Everyone” in Europe to join NATO so European Taxpayers have to subsidize the American MIC.

Posted by: Norwegian | May 14 2024 5:51 utc | 98

Reuters has a posting up with the title
Blinken arrives in Ukraine in show of US solidarity amid Russian attacks
the quote I think telling

On Monday, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Washington was trying to accelerate “the tempo of the deliveries” of weapons to Ukraine to help it reverse its disadvantage.
“The delay put Ukraine in a hole and we’re trying to help them dig out of that hole as rapidly as possible,” Sullivan said, adding that a fresh package of weapons was going to be announced this week.

Too little and too late……May 20th is coming when Z loses legal agency in Ukraine.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 14 2024 5:56 utc | 100