I’m amused by all the armchair idiots who are upset that Putin rearranged his cabinet after the election. That happens in every western election that I’ve followed the last fifty years; guys who surprised get rewarded, older guys get turned out to pasture gently, and so on. No one bats an eye at the process; it’s all about dissecting the details.
Putin does it, and suddenly it’s a sign of weakness or Russian despair. Huh? Shoigu’s been under the gun for nearly 2 and a half years; maybe *he* wanted out.
As for the SecDef not being from the military, do they not look at the US list? From Engine Charlie Wilson to Robert ‘war by numbers’ Macnamara to good ol’ Cap Weinberger to shotgun totin’ Dick Cheney, the SecDef is quite often a businessman and connected political insider. They are only occasionally a retired officer, and must be retired for at least a decade if they are to serve (congressional waivers can reduce that, tho).

Posted by: FrankDrakman | May 13 2024 3:24 utc | 204

Re: Posted by: Michael Droy | May 12 2024 15:28 utc | 4

1. Because the de-militarisation is largely complete (=> main task is over and resistance is near zero).

Nearly complete?!? What?!?
Why isn’t Russia advancing on Odessa then? Or even Kherson?!?
Why isn’t Russia advancing quickly through the remainder of Luhansk and Donetsk?!? It is doing none of these things!
If the “de-militarisation” is nearly complete then surely Russia would control all of Donetsk & Luhansk – they are only a fraction of the whole of Ukraine you realise – most of Ukraine is West of the Dnieper – including significant military assets.
”near zero resistance”
You’re kidding right? Where are the collapsing lines then with Ukrainians fleeing in their tens of thousands?
That’s a complete fantasy.

Posted by: Julian | May 13 2024 3:28 utc | 206

>wants the U$ to retain the airbase in Niger.
As I originally posted.
Posted by: Melaleuca | May 13 2024 3:15 utc | 203
And where does he say he wants the US to retain the base? He doesn’t. He talks (in your quote) about the troops being held hostage and stranded. He doesn’t say one word about wanting the US there. Can’t admit you’re wrong. Non-credible poster. Anyone reading this should take note of this behavior.

Posted by: chronic | May 13 2024 3:31 utc | 208

chronic | May 13 2024 3:31 utc | 208
Gaetz is a U$ politician. U$ politicians are imperialists.
Gaetz is furious the U$ investment in Niger (installation of a base) has been lost due to Biden Blinken State Dept incompetence.
He’s furious that previously bought and paid for human and infrastructure assets in Africa have been (are being) lost.

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 13 2024 3:41 utc | 210

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/17/niger-air-force-whistleblower/
Gaetz accused government officials of delaying the inevitable departure of U.S. forces from Niger to spare the Biden administration the embarrassment of having to close facilities that cost the United States hundreds of millions of dollars to build only recently — a charge officials denied.
Yeah Melaleuca, when Gaetz goes ballistic at Biden officials delaying leaving Niger, what he really means is he’s upset at the US leaving Niger. Ok, got it. Makes perfect sense.

Posted by: chronic | May 13 2024 3:49 utc | 212

Re: Posted by: psychohistorian | May 12 2024 19:38 utc | 67

I think the short answer is that it is no longer the middle of the SMO but the end….at least Russia thinks so.
And you need that bureaucrat to manage the political/economic reintegration of the national pieces, not a warrior defending them exclusively.

Absolutely delusional. This thing has many months to run, perhaps even years.
Why on earth would you think it will be over soon?
Explain your logic.

Posted by: Julian | May 13 2024 3:58 utc | 214

I don’t think you’re American, otherwise you’d know better than to try to paint Gaetz as a globalist, which he definitely is not.
Posted by: chronic | May 13 2024 2:46 utc | 192
Gaetz is one of the best congressmen there is. If he is bitching about Niger, its to score points on Biden, not because he wants to stay in Niger.
As soon as I read Melaleuca’s comment I was miffed. Of all the congressmen, including those who pushed for bases in Niger, he singles out Gaetz, the least imperialist, one of the leaders of the historic speaker change and Ukrainian funding holdout?
Gaetz gets the benefit of the doubt from me.

Posted by: UWDude | May 13 2024 4:30 utc | 216

Melaleuca | May 13 2024 3:15 utc | 203
You are correct on Gaetz. From what I see he is just pissed off about management of empire rather than empire itself.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2024 4:40 utc | 218

Peter AU1 | May 13 2024 4:40 utc | 218–
Russia’s sharpened its pencil, honed its razor and calibrated its instruments, and is now ready for even more effort. What was that Putin said a year ago or so, “We haven’t even started yet.” Well, guess what just revved its engine?

Posted by: karlof1 | May 13 2024 4:51 utc | 220

Zerada
🔥🔥 Kharkov
We continue to believe that the Russian Federation has no geopolitical task of taking Kharkov, Sum or Chernigov.
As before, we affirm that the whole information noise on this occasion is an attempt to keep society tense + a shift in emphasis from real Russian motivation.
So residents of the border regions can convey great greetings to Budanov, the RDK and all Podolyaks who maliciously commented on the raids on Shebekino and the attacks on Belgorod.
The main task of the « northern group » Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is the creation of a sanitary zone, about which spoke Putin March 18th.
The simplest option is to push the border 10-15 km., Which will make Belgorod inaccessible to most Ukrainian systems.
The number of Donetsk shelling decreased significantly after the Armed Forces lost Avdeevka. Now they shoot mainly by the Khaimars, but so far the Americans do not allow them to beat.
Therefore, 10-15 km is enough. Moreover, the approach of the front line will already put Kharkov in the reach zone of cheap Russian systems, which will make it even cheaper for « to turn off » the city without risking aircraft and not spending Iskander. And this is very important in the war of exhaustion.
Operational and strategic level. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot provide significant resistance in the Volchansky direction, then the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can try:
✅Minimum option: go to the rear of the Kupyan group;
✅ Option maximum: cut the Kharkov-Izyum track, which is the main supply route of the Kramatsky group.
We are talking about these operational strategic opportunities wrote back in January 2023.
Therefore, now the Armed Forces hastily transfer reserves to Kharkov from other directions. Notice we wrote, that in the near future we are waiting for the activation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in alternative areas. This absolutely falls within the scope of distributed pressure tactics.
Apparently in the Russian Federation they decided that the appearance of another 100 km of the ( front line is about such distances ) more profitable than the Armed Forces, which have a huge shortage of motivated fighters.
Our assumption is reinforced by the character of « call » Russians. He is neat. The first prisoners and panic among the TRP is a common occurrence of any war, because reports of readiness to repel an attack always surpass reality on earth.
We do not exclude the same entry into the Sumy region.
At the same time, we reiterate that there will be no assault on Kharkov ☝🏻
Dear Kharkovites, we sympathize with you, but we write as it is so that you can make adequate situations of decision.
In 2023 we wrote, that the beautiful city of Kharkov, unfortunately, will turn into a geopolitical dead end, given the falling curtain between the West and Russia. After the attacks on Belgorod, the situation changed for the worse. The region will gradually but steadily turn into a gray zone, following the example of many territories of Donbass.

Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2024 5:10 utc | 222

Let’s change the subject and discuss NATO’s objectives, sure the one that gets thrown around can be reduced to “killing Slavs without using own troops”.
But, really, what were NATO’s objective?
Army version 1.0 was all set to invade the Donbass Republics. If Russia did not react, would Crimea have been next?
There is evidence that Russia would react kicking in the “sanctions from hell” that would cause the collapse of Russia. That’s a fail.
Smart money was on Russia swiftly occupying 404, setting the stage for Operation Gladio V2022 and trapping Russia in a quagmire. Another failure.
Anyho, recalibration by both sides and suddenly, talk was for “halting” the conflict re the “Korean Solution”. That’s looks to be failing big time.
Talks about boots on ground, weapons to target Russia proper by the French and Anglo Poddles have been slapped down. Fail.
F16s will be shot out of the sky, so now talks about a “No Fly Zone” have been floated and sunk. Fail.
What fantastically stupid idea will the West come up with next?
Thoughts?

Posted by: Suresh | May 13 2024 5:23 utc | 224

Melaleuca | May 13 2024 3:15 utc | 203
You are correct on Gaetz. From what I see he is just pissed off about management of empire rather than empire itself.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 13 2024 4:40 utc | 218
Agreed, as a non American, they are all just different shades of Evil. I want to hope Jill Stein is a different breed of US politicians, but I’m not holding my breath. The Greens here (NZ) and in Germany have been hijacked.
Someone once said all US politicians should be wearing jackets with their sponsors brands on.

Posted by: Suresh | May 13 2024 5:33 utc | 226

Posted by: Suresh | May 13 2024 5:33 utc | 227
Read his twitter.

Posted by: UWDude | May 13 2024 5:40 utc | 228

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 13 2024 2:50 utc | 193
Jake, MoA is a “watering hole”.
Mate, MoA is existentially whatever each user wants it to be. We ALL use it in various guises. If it was a real bar, some patrons would be thrown out through the doors into the gutter by the licensee. Some would have a plaque erected above the bar for Services To Truth and Good Information. Some just get more and more sozzled/stoned by the hours until irrational and unintelligablty picking egotistical fights with shadows. They would get a punch in the nose and told to stfu.
Me, I’d spend a little time chatting intelligently with knowledgeable folks on a variety of topics around the pool table, avoiding the pontificating war history and economic gurus and teenage trolls and the spluttering drunks on bar stools.
But it’s not that. It’s an online, global, free speech comments section full of varying humans. We all gotta live with its ***realities*** not behave like the whisky bar metaphor excuses low IQ interactions after dinner (or earlier as suspect might be the case for some!).

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 13 2024 5:44 utc | 230

We all gotta live with its ***realities*** not behave like the whisky bar metaphor excuses low IQ interactions after dinner (or earlier as suspect might be the case for some!).
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 13 2024 5:44 utc | 231
We == you.

Posted by: UWDude | May 13 2024 5:46 utc | 232

Lithuania’s Prime Minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, has stated that her country is prepared to send its soldiers to Ukraine on a training mission – both of them /sarc
Posted by: Passerby | May 12 2024 17:27 utc | 25
—-Nah, wrong number! Just dusting uniform in front of mirror!

Posted by: Ivan M. | May 13 2024 6:04 utc | 234

… and not behave as if the whisky bar metaphor excuses low IQ and drunken interactions …
UWDude | May 13 2024 5:46 utc | 233

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 13 2024 6:16 utc | 236

If you read the official media of the Washington and Brussels “regional committees”, the war of the collective Middle-earth against “Mordor” in Ukraine is proceeding according to plan and even faster than planned.
What could be wrong with these reports?
Harry Potter’s magic wand in the form of a $61 billion package of American military aid to Ukraine (most of which will remain in the pockets of the US military-industrial complex) was sent to Zelensky by a “white owl”, and soon will be the powerful Western “Sickle Chariots” begin destroying “legions of spindly orcs with skyfire.”
Red lines, maneuvers, talk of troops – what is the West planning?
Opinion
Red lines, maneuvers, talk of troops – what is the West planning?
Yesterday, the noble “elves”, represented by the ambassadors of the 27 EU member states, pompously announced that they had agreed on a draft agreement on Ukraine’s security guarantees, which will be in force until Ukraine joins the EU and NATO will remain, and until then the “orcs” should tremble and hiss in fear.
According to reliable reports from the “Marble Towers of Gondor”, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing ten powerful additional brigades that will easily stop the “temporary and completely insignificant Russian offensive” along the entire front.
The US President’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, after questioning, confidently stated in his “oracle hat” that Western aid to the Ukrainian regime would be enough to get through 2024 in peace, and that Kiev would receive another in 2025 I will organize a “super” counteroffensive, which will definitely work this time.
As the best Western military analysts cleverly noted, Russia was able to exhibit only a single tank at the Victory Parade on May 9 (they mean our legendary T-34 tank), which clearly proves that “Sauron’s” resources and reserves are completely exhausted.
And most importantly: the entire civilized world demonstrates its “unwavering” support for Ukraine every day and hour – and will not deviate from this path as long as there are still Ukrainians. Do you hear that? No turning back!
But if you read the “Elven Writings” in the original, it turns out that not everything is so clear in the “Magic Garden”, which is confirmed by “Gandalf’s Numerous Daughters”.
Media report: EU wants to give Kiev “security assurances”.
Media report: EU wants to give Kiev “security assurances”.
The very meaningful draft agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine, voted on yesterday in the EU, turns out in retrospect to be a “squeak of a dead mouse”: the text states in black and white that its provisions do not legally bind anyone, the direct participation of EU soldiers military operations against Russia are completely out of the question, and it is most likely that this draft will not be finalized since only seven out of 27 EU countries are currently willing to sign it (the rest are considering it or have not wanted to do so).
For some reason, the “magic” package did not work and will not work: John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator on the White House National Security Council, grudgingly admitted that the Russians, in view of the start of large-scale deliveries of military aid to Kiev, “successes in the Eastern Ukraine and Donbass”; and Western military experts openly stated that Washington should get involved as quickly and seriously as possible in preparing a peace agreement for Ukraine, which would require the West and Kiev to make “difficult decisions.”
So yesterday The Hill published a surprisingly sensible article saying that despite all the cash injections into the Kiev junta, “further attempts to defeat Russia militarily are hopeless, Russian forces have a major advantage, and the position of Ukrainian forces is rapidly deteriorating “worsened”.
According to the authors of the publication, the “laws of large numbers” are inexorable: “Ukraine will never win the war and will not recapture the lost territories.” What did the Russians say about open doors, are they still open?
But let’s assume that The Hill’s editorial staff (as well as many others) were kidnapped for a day by “Petrov and Boshirov” as part of a “towertop tour” and that it was all about inflammatory Putin propaganda.
The most poignant and brutal truth is, as always, shamefully exposed when it comes to unraveling the interests of major global finance.
Message to “Reconstruction Minister” Habeck: Ukraine is being rapidly de-industrialized
Opinion
Message to “Reconstruction Minister” Habeck: Ukraine will be destroyed recently de-industrialized
If one agrees with the Western mainstream that Russia will collapse by 2025 at the latest while the West prospers, then by the most primitive logic there should already be a queue of major international financial interests ready to be at each other’s throats, to capture a piece of the huge money pie for the “post-war reconstruction” of victorious Ukraine. The pie is huge: according to the most conservative estimates, at least half a trillion dollars will have to be invested to restore what Ukraine lost.
But for some reason there is no queue.
The World Bank, for example, which usually manages to get to wherever there is a fire, but which was suddenly overcome by “virginal modesty” in the case of Ukraine. For the whole of 2024, the bank planned to invest only $1.9 billion in Ukraine, while $35 billion is earmarked for a single energy project in Africa. According to the bank representative, “these are long-term investments that, unfortunately, may be lost as a result of the conflict.”
The analyzes cited by Reuters are even more telling.
According to the news agency’s experts, the remnants of the Ukrainian economy are feverishly shifting to the western part of the country. Recently, at least 19,000 companies and companies have moved there from the eastern, southern and central regions of Ukraine, and the meager flow of Western investments is also concentrated exclusively in the Lvov and Zakarpattia regions. The reason for this is simple: “These regions have the best prospects of prosperity if they join the EU” (read: where the Russians won’t reach).
“Ukraine is Russia, that is non-negotiable” – Medvedev draws strategic boundaries for Russia
analysis
“Ukraine is Russia, that is non-negotiable” – Medvedev draws strategic boundaries for Russia
The accelerated evacuation of Ukraine to the West naturally pleases the government in Lvov, where the number of job vacancies is growing in double digits and the budget filled by refugees is increasing. But that doesn’t please Reuters experts, who conclude that the “great exodus to the West” is forever. And as it stands, Lvov is increasingly seen as the only place that could become the capital of the former Ukraine.
On May 3, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron visited Lvov and, as a symbolic gesture, planted his personal black acacia tree – a symbol of immortality that apparently means that Lvov will hold out in defense to the last of its strength and that the West will hold on to Lvov.
It doesn’t matter to us which of them will think of the other and for what: we still have many Russian cities to liberate. As for Lvov – we will think about it tomorrow.
Translated from Russian. The article first appeared on RIA on May 12, 2024

Posted by: ossi | May 13 2024 7:12 utc | 238

Super smart* US Georgetown thinktank says the US is out of them to give without stripping operational units.
“The United States has transferred 142 M-777 155-millimeter (mm) towed howitzers to Ukraine.”
“Ukraine has received approximately 300 pieces of towed and self-propelled 155 mm artillery. (The exact number is likely a bit higher since some countries do not disclose their transfers.)”
“However, the Department of Defense (DOD) has indicated that it cannot provide any more M-777s without taking them from operational units.”
“In theory, more M-777 howitzers could be produced. However, the M-777 is not currently in production. Although the Army may restart M-777 production, delivery of new systems would take many years.”
https://www.csis.org/analysis/expanding-equipment-options-ukraine-case-artillery
from the MOD report:
one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer
one UK-made 155-mm Braveheart self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer
one French-made 155-mm Caesar self-propelled artillery system
U.S.-made 155-mm Paladin self-propelled artillery system
U.S.-made 155-mm M777
six U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzers
4% of the publicly available number of 155-mm pieces sent in a day, more than 6% of the M777 a finite resource not able to be produced. The point of the article was that they should start refurbishing 100 a year of an older system.
———————————
*hahahahahaha “As an extreme example of artillery use during a war of attrition, the British Army massed 1,400 guns on a front of 14 miles (100 guns per mile, 62 per km) for the Somme offensive in July 2016.”
The date in case anyone missed it, probably think that is when it was.

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 13 2024 7:28 utc | 240

@ UWDude | May 13 2024 4:30 utc | 216
> Gaetz gets the benefit of the doubt from me.
Since normally I’m “out of my league” and thus just lurk, this is the first time our opinions on something differ. (Thank you for so many good contributions here.)
> one of the leaders of the historic speaker change and Ukrainian funding holdout?
And?? As we see so often in politics, changing the people changed nothing. When necessary, the regime rotates its “public relations” staff to instill false hopes of change.
Don’t give politicians the benefit of the doubt. That gives the system the room it needs to operate.
@ Blanchard
You regularly contribute good comments too. But, consider relaxing a little, please.

Posted by: despondent | May 13 2024 7:38 utc | 242

@Melaleuca | May 13 2024 3:15 utc | 203
fighting for U$ and ISIS, wanting to do PAYtriotic duty
Fixed it for them. I kinda want em to stay stuck there, because once they all get bumped out from all over the world, if they come home, then they will be turned on those who don’t support the BS they are doing there. “Will” isn’t quite accurate, they already give some of the most twisted ones a badge and a gun.
Also fixed for them.
I fear, as we speak, the conditions may be forming to create another arms deal supplying ISIS gone bad.
I hope they fail to properly destroy hard drives when it happens.

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 13 2024 8:02 utc | 244

The Russians simply walked in, Ukrainian troops in Kharkiv tell BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo

Posted by: Apollyon | May 13 2024 8:06 utc | 246

Posted by: Yarpos | May 13 2024 7:53 utc | 245
Belgorod was bombed with Vampyre MLRS until recently, now those have run out and/or out of range, the only thing that can bomb Belgorod is Himars, which are limited. Yet they continue using limited Himars to strike at Belgorod.
On the one hand this is an undeniable war crime, on the other hand it facilitates the movement of the weakly fire supported front. We have more recently learned that the defensive structures that were supposed to be in Sumy and Kharkov region are not necessarily there, as a lot of the construction funds were stolen.
When Ukraine still controlled border area they could use howitzers.
All of this does not mean that boat loads of artillery have not been destroyed, it has.

Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2024 8:09 utc | 248

Posted by: Newbie | May 12 2024 20:14 utc | 90

………………………………………………………………
Would love to know who will he have (with solid military experience ) as his right hand.

@all
what’s all the fuss about shoigu ?
that is so typical MSM presentation/thinking
– a simple task for the hectic is to make a list of the defense / war ministers of all NATO countries and their military careers !
for the quote above:
maybe you can look for the right hand of shoigu ?
Not in msm !!! BUT in the original —> https://eng.mil.ru/en/management/deputy.htm

Posted by: ghiwen | May 13 2024 8:32 utc | 250

The western banking/financial system may be imploding at any moment. The obvious instinct reaction is to try to cover up the banking collapse with a war against Russia
Posted by: unimperator | May 13 2024 5:42 utc | 230
US not so much and they’ll never pay back any money, they have nothing to worry about. So this plan would work only if Russia is so stupid to fight Europe as a proxy for US, lose millions, get all cities in the western part erased, then what is left of it go back to US butt kissing forever. Unfortunately there are signs some of them are stupid since someone, can’t remember who it was but it was on Tass about a month or two ago, said that there is increased danger of war in Europe. It seems their entire context is set in the very wrong way. Kim is much smarter, he always talks directly to the source of the problem and develops more long range missiles. If he’s attacked, he won’t respond to SK or J losers alone. Russia, after Belgorod building was hit and so far 15 were found dead and the rescue is frequently stopped by more strikes towards the same location, announced an “investigation” to find those who attacked. Because everyone knows that finding three retarded soldiers will definitely make nato stop.

Posted by: rk | May 13 2024 8:42 utc | 252

I see that troll army/NAFO clan is re-activated to dunk on latest Russian govt appointment and *check notes* Russian shelling themselves at border towns. Well done struggling in vain and impotent rage like 404’s shrinking military and fate – micron, nasir, vargas, julian.
Lavrov’s warning about mandating a non-negotiable 300km buffer zone from the nearest Russian town came to mind. More advanced weapons simply extend the zone. Can’t be any clearer.

Posted by: __newbie__ | May 13 2024 8:54 utc | 254

So this plan would work only if Europe is so stupid to fight Russia as a proxy for US, lose millions, get all cities in the eastern part erased, then what is left of it go back to US butt kissing forever.
There… fixed it for ya!

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 13 2024 9:31 utc | 256

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 13 2024 9:15 utc | 257
There’s a video, often used in the intro of pro-Iranian news snippets, showing an Iranian underground storage facility, guys walking down a long rock tunnel, walls lined with missiles and other equipment. Perhaps it’s just me but at one point the camera pans across a highly conspicuous rack of ballistic missile warheads. I thought the implication was clear: these could contains anything.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 13 2024 10:20 utc | 258

Posted by: Perimetr | May 12 2024 19:30 utc | 59
Is it a good idea to appoint a bureaucrat with no military background to be Defense Minister in the middle of a war?
———————
Yes. What’s the role of a defense minister you think? Not commander in chief for sure

Posted by: RB | May 13 2024 10:28 utc | 260

Willy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnNrbueoLmc
Little bit more on the “Combat Vet Reacts” video criticism. Another guy backing up Willy and not the pro-Ukr grifter YTer.
North:
Another advance on left salient, per DS. And grey zone increased, both salients, in Vochansk now.
Defensive works nob built, blabla.
Suriyak shows similar but larger than DS. ~at the gray zone of DS. No geo-confirmations of Suriyak’s larger claims.
*Random non-map rant about Russia not being a threat to Poland, etc. given they can’t even take Ukraine. It’s just rhetoric from talking generals in the West to say this.*
Verbove: DS shows an advance NW of. W interprets this as a “drip” update. No Suriyak advance shown there today…has been on Suriyak map for a while.
Kraz: Tiny RFA sliver on DS in city center (after large update yesterday). Suriyak shows an increase now too. Maps are now pretty similar, showing city 40-50% RFA controlled.
Netalove: small advance (DS)
Seminvka: 1 km advance to west, into fields. [Note: Willy has previously said this is difficult to control ground, as both sides have controlling artillery from hills. And it has been lagging the advances to N or S.]
Oche: Suriyak shows a few fields advance to N. DS still has grey zone in a pocket E of Arhank, where Suriyak has RFA. (no change either.)
Chasiv/Ivaniske: Suriyak has caught up to DS map showing forest control. (Looks like a catch up, not an advance, as DS no change.)

Posted by: Anonymous | May 13 2024 11:07 utc | 262

Posted by: Newbie | May 13 2024 9:40 utc | 259 “RF total excess mortality for march 2024 is finally in at a paltry 735.” “For those that know my estimates it is a RF KIA month at 1.900 (low casualty month) whilst march saw almost 1.000 AFU casualties per day.”
Where/how do you get your estimates for excess mortality for the RF? Mediazona long term average is about 100 RF KIA per day. That would mean 3,000 for April. Not too far off from your number.
How about your estimate for the AFU? The group that mirrors the Mediazona work but for the AFU has a much lower number. But KIA, not casualties.

Posted by: ed4 | May 13 2024 11:17 utc | 264

@266,
What is that group that mirrors Mediazona?
AFU much lower number? Considering the level of firepower on both sides, I highly doubt that the numbers in Ukraine are ‘much’ smaller.
We can argue that the casualty ratio is probably not something absurd such as 10-1 but for RU worst case scenario is 1-1 casualty ratio which might be plausible on certain areas.

Posted by: JamesBond | May 13 2024 11:41 utc | 266

Considering the level of firepower on both sides, I highly doubt that the numbers in Ukraine are ‘much’ smaller.
All correlations suggest the RF casualties are indeed MUCH smaller. The FABs alone have been devastating and there’s simply no equivalent on the UFA side.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 13 2024 12:10 utc | 268

Posted by: Suresh | May 13 2024 5:33 utc | 227
Jill Stein can afford to be different because she’ll never be elected to anything. I voted for her in 2012 as a protest vote when I still cared. My last vote.
Sanders was different until he had a chance to be elected. He was destroyed and promptly changed his tune.

Posted by: RB | May 13 2024 12:36 utc | 270

Where/how do you get your estimates for excess mortality for the RF? Mediazona long term average is about 100 RF KIA per day. That would mean 3,000 for April. Not too far off from your number.
How about your estimate for the AFU? The group that mirrors the Mediazona work but for the AFU has a much lower number. But KIA, not casualties.
Posted by: ed4 | May 13 2024 11:17 utc | 266
I already explained several times but will do it again.
The economist has (since the days of Covid ) a monthly excess mortality per country , Russia keeps divulging the number, Ukraine does not since February 2022.
I use an additional value of 1.200 because
1. Otherwise you’d get negative months
2. It was consistent with a first probate analysis of excess mortality for under 50 yo males in RF
It’s also compatible with mediazona roughly catching almost 2/3 of the Kia in standard/original method, and probably over estimating by 500 a month in the new BBC probate numbers
For Ukraine there were some tangential analysis by amputees, by the institute of sociology of Kiev on Cloe friends and family wounded or killed, the several recruitment phases and stated needs.
Higlhly unlikely that the AFU ratio be far from 6.5 to 8 AFU KIA to 1 RF … and that before the FABs

Posted by: Newbie | May 13 2024 12:39 utc | 272

The best thing to do in a bar is drink your beer and listen.
Posted by: jpc | May 13 2024 11:53 utc | 269

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 13 2024 12:44 utc | 274

Posted by: HB_Norica | May 13 2024 12:42 utc | 275
Why tf did you address that to me? What you said was my point. Tell @Honzo and @badjoke to think it through more clearly.
Jeezuz, my original point, if anybody could be bothered to read threads properly and in order, was that the common label for Putin as “an ex-KGB agent” (which Honzo first labelled him) is NOWADAYS a trite and irrelevant descriptor for a man of much broader and deeper substance some 40 years later … irrespective of weather or not he was the fkn tea boy or a 007 Spy in East Berlin.
Why does it take half a dozen posts in here to get the same message across to the skip-reading simpletons.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 13 2024 13:01 utc | 276

@277,
Interesting, if I compare the Ukr site that you provided above and Mediazona numbers, it’s strangely similar in terms of numbers.
51245 ukrainians vs 52789 russians.

Posted by: JamesBond | May 13 2024 13:26 utc | 278

In 2022, the Putin regime had several major and interlocking goals:
1. Blitzkrieg and conquer Ukraine in preparation for ethnic cleansing and Russification
2. Undermine NATO
3. Undermine the EU
4. Restore Russia to its former economic, political and military glory.
Posted by: Mr B | May 12 2024 23:10 utc | 141
Ah yes … more information taken from the “Russian playbook”
I would ask you to cite a Russian source for the objectives of the SMO but you can’t because all those sources are blocked by the west which only leaves the “Russian playbook” as the source of information and unfortunately that is kept in a vault deep in the pentagon where only State Department officials and western media can see it.
So since the real sources of information is censored by free speech loving Americans I’ll paraphrase.
The Russian objectives of the SMO as of August 22, 2022
1. Liberate the two breakaway Ukrainian oblasts that were admitted to the Russian federation at their request.
2. “De-militarize” the Ukrainian armed forces. In other words destroy Ukraines ability to wage war.
3. De-nazify” Ukraine. (regime change for the leadership and long term employment opportunities in Siberia for the football hooligans / militias known as kraken, Azov etc.)
4. Denying NATO forces access to Ukrainian territory and forcing the west into renegotiating a security agreement with Russia.
If you read Putin’s speech from Aug 22, 2022 you will find that he says Russia has no intention of occupying Ukraine.
At no point has Putin said anything about restoring the USSR or Russian empire in any speech or written paper.
As far as “ethnic cleansing” they’re all basically Slavs for fuck sake. Ukrainians born before 1991 were born into Russia, speak Russian act Russian and have friends and relatives all over Russia. How the fuck do you “Russify” a country that’s already for the most part Russian?
Russia isn’t fighting to turn Ukrainians into Russians … they’re fighting to stop Ukrainians from turning Russians into Ukrainians against their will. THAT is what this conflict has been about since 2014. It’s the Ukrainians who ban Russian books and force Russian speakers to learn Ukrainian not the other way around. Zelensky himself is a Russian speaker who had to learn Ukrainian after he was elected president.

Posted by: HB_Norica | May 13 2024 13:33 utc | 280

Medizona numbers are for KIA and they run about 100 RF a day.
Group that more or less mirrors Medizona for Ukraine: https://ualosses.org/en/soldiers/
Posted by: Ed4 | May 13 2024 12:51 utc | 277
Ukraine has kept a tight lid on deaths (even hiding total mortality)
You might have almost 50.000 whose families were informed and as much as 20 times as many whose bodies were left and no information given.
Unlike the RF where you can check total excess mortality and cross reference, in Ukraine you can’t .
But you can suspect that tens to hundred thousand amputees are a fraction of KIA
You can see that if everybody has several close friends and/or family Kia and twice as many WIA, then the numbers must exceed a million
And if the AFU desperately needs 25.000 to 30.000 a month to cover expenses (in a lighter phase of the SMO) they are probably dead or completely unusable
Once the numbers are known there will be a big surprise and horror

Posted by: Newbie | May 13 2024 13:37 utc | 282

re sockpuppets
For a time RSH was conspicuously using sockpuppet accounts and names.
RSH had a lot of loyalists as well as a group (myself included) who got death threats.
Online life is odd. Emotional manipulation occurs here. Very likely indeed that those who choose to manipulate have studied how this is done. No need at al to deal in facts if an emotional response van be obtained.
If it looks like a troll and quacks like a troll it is most likely a troll. Who controls the troll? A reader does not know and will not know. Highly indoctrinated self-motivated trolls can occur without direct outside agency.
We know that Brigade 77 exists. Admitted. Whatcha gonna do? Pretend they are not here?

Posted by: oldhippie | May 13 2024 13:41 utc | 284

Why tf did you address that to me? What you said was my point. Tell @Honzo and @badjoke to think it through more clearly.
Jeezuz, my original point, if anybody could be bothered to read threads properly and in order, was that the common label for Putin as “an ex-KGB agent” (which Honzo first labelled him) is NOWADAYS a trite and irrelevant descriptor for a man of much broader and deeper substance some 40 years later … irrespective of weather or not he was the fkn tea boy or a 007 Spy in East Berlin.
Why does it take half a dozen posts in here to get the same message across to the skip-reading simpletons.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 13 2024 13:01 utc | 278
I’ll try to be polite here but this has to be said. I don’t read your posts because you emote and squabble like a 14 year old girl. Your posts trigger my PTSD from raising teenagers so I skip over everything you write until I find a quote from you in a response then I go back and read the post it came from and write my response to that post. I simply don’t have the time to read and follow every post on this site. Just chill out Jake and be more concise and information focused in your posts … maybe take a walk, take up gardening or bird watching and smell the roses from time to time.

Posted by: HB_Norica | May 13 2024 13:59 utc | 286

Nothing about this war/SMO makes sense. One report is that the Ukrainian frontline is slowly collapsing in the East with Russians just walking in because adequate fortifications were never built. Another report says that Russia has made no significant advances, and the situation is tense but stable. Both reports from the same “side” in this war! What a mess.

Posted by: bored | May 13 2024 14:12 utc | 288

HB_Norica@288…..teenager triggered PTSD…. priceless!
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 13 2024 14:19 utc | 290

The 5 eyes have incestuous agreements to get around those pesky little Constitutional questions and just spy domestically on each other’s population. As some say, simples. Maerica is the ringleader. So don’t pose as victim thanks.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 13 2024 14:25 utc | 292

Lolwut. Canada is a vassal state of Maerica and sure as hell isn’t working ‘against US internet freedoms’ you’re doing very good at that all by yourself thanks Mr. Patriot act. Was Snowden Canadian and I didn’t notice? The hell.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven |

Posted by: Not Ewe | May 13 2024 14:40 utc | 294

Lolwut. Canada is a vassal state of Maerica and sure as hell isn’t working ‘against US internet freedoms’ you’re doing very good at that all by yourself thanks Mr. Patriot act. Was Snowden Canadian and I didn’t notice? The hell.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven |
goddamned computer.
actually the word “employed” should have been used.
and if you need to cut and stitch words using anything suggesting a quote, please take considerable time to go fuck yourself.

Posted by: Not Ewe | May 13 2024 14:42 utc | 296

Posted by: snake | May 13 2024 11:33 utc | 267
Good post.

Posted by: horseguards | May 13 2024 14:49 utc | 298

Posted by: Honzo | May 13 2024 0:59 utc | 170
I have infinite respect for VVP, and I reject the western propaganda line, which you seem to embrace, that Putin ‘saw the light’ and became an Atlanticist, and that only the ‘unexpected betrayals’ and rejection by the west made him turn to a ‘nationalist’ platform. Only a complete idiot would think that a brilliant man with a long career in the security services would think the west was anything but hostile to Russia. They were trying to rob it, hack it apart, and make sure it could never be a unified state again. Putin, at least, does not get his understanding of the world from reading the MSM.

And yet he has often accurately pointed out that Western people don’t hate Russia, rather it’s our elites. I got the feeling – perhaps out of stupidity as you say – that he genuinely wanted rapprochement with the West and thought that the fall of communism presented an opportunity. I also suspect that he is not so much ‘communist’ as Russian, though he may well regard many of the communists as loyal Russians who got entangled with something that went wrong. Russia went through various iterations of communism and is now, in its own way, more like China. Some sort of strong, stable state with a mixed economy (aka ‘socialist’) tied together with ‘Russian characteristics’ and whose guiding principles place the well-being of the people above all other considerations. (Hopefully that’s true; some critics doubt this.)
However, the Hegemon went way too far, and no doubt Putin was one of the first RoW statesmen to perceive this with clear eyes and a steady hand; so soon after the Iraq War, rather than surrender to a monotonic neoliberal ‘end of history’, he began to work on changing the world order to create a very different history altogether.
A great man.

Posted by: scorpion | May 13 2024 14:51 utc | 300