Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 8, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-132

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/rafah-border-crossing-to-be-managed-by-private-contractor–h
Some Biden cronies are salivating.

Posted by: paxmark1 | May 8 2024 15:24 utc | 1

🇷🇺🇺🇦💡Massive strike of the RuAF on the Ukrainian energy sector on May 8, 2024
what is known as of 11.00 8/5/2024
The RuAF attacked the facilities of the Ukrainian energy complex, according to official data , three thermal power plants were damaged.
🔻Probably Burshtynskaya, Dobrotvorskaya, Ladyzhinskaya TPPs. Judging by videos on social networks and media reports, explosions were heard in Burshtyn and Ladyzhyn , and in the Lvov region, where Dobrotvorskaya TPP is located, they write about a fire.
▪️Strikes against the Burshtyn TPP continue: this once again confirms the systematic approach to fire damage to these facilities. Initially, the station had 10 turbogenerators with secondary control of turbine speed (out of 12 available). But after previous attacks, at best, four remained operational. It is this that allows them to compensate for frequency deviations from the nominal value during peaks in electricity consumption.
▪️There was one such generator at the Dobrotvorskaya TPP, and after the strikes in April, the station continued to operate, despite hitting the boiler-turbine shop and damaging some of the boilers. The boiler and turbogenerator No. 1 were not damaged, turbogenerator No. 2 may have received only partial damage, so the operation of the station continued.
▪️As for the Ladyzhinskaya TPP, since the resumption of attacks on the energy sector, Ukraine’s last flight was on April 3. After a month of repairs, it started working (and it’s clear that this was noticed). We can only hope that the Krivoy Rog TPP , which also continues to operate, will also be in the focus of attention.
📌It is gratifying to see that our words about the importance of defeating thermal power plants with special secondary frequency control equipment were heard. They are very important for the functioning of the entire energy system of Ukraine (they make it possible to eliminate frequency deviations from the set value of 50 Hz). Two out of three thermal power plants have such equipment.

https://t.me/sitreports/27305

Posted by: Down South | May 8 2024 15:40 utc | 2

@ paxmark1 | May 8 2024 15:24 utc | 1
i think you meant to put that on the open palestine thread…

Posted by: james | May 8 2024 16:03 utc | 3

Russian forces inflict over 350 casualties on Ukrainian army in Donetsk area in past day
Russian forces inflict over 350 casualties on Ukrainian army in Donetsk area in past day
Russian air defenses destroy 11 Ukrainian UAVs, ATACMS missile over past day
https://tass.com/politics/1785675

Posted by: ld | May 8 2024 16:08 utc | 4

Russian Defence Ministry report for 8 May 2024: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12512122@egNews

In response to the Kiev regime’s attempt to damage Russian power facilities, the Russian Armed Forces launched a long-range high-precision group strike by sea- and air-based missiles, the Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missile system, unmanned aerial vehicles at power facilities, as well as enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the assigned targets have been engaged.
As a result of the strike, Ukraine’s ability to produce military hardware and deliver Western-made weaponry and military hardware to the line of contact has been significantly reduced.
Units of the Zapad Group of Forces improved the tactical situation along the front lines and completely liberated Kislovka (Kharkov region).
Two counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 31st Ukrainian National Guard Brigade were repelled near Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 55 Ukrainian troops and two 122-mm D-30 howitzers.
Units of the Yug Group of Forces captured more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 92nd Assault Brigade, 28th, 93rd mechanised brigades, 56th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 4th National Guard Brigade, 104th, and 106th territorial defence brigades near Spornoye, Andreyevka, Kurdyumovka, Minkovka, and Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 355 Ukrainian troops, one tank, and two motor vehicles.
In the course of counter-battery warfare, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, one Anklav electronic warfare station, and one ammunition depot were wiped out.
Units of the Tsentr Group of Forces completely liberated Novokalinovo (Donetsk People’s Republic), as well as inflicted losses on units of the AFU 132th Mechanised Brigade and 68th Jaeger Brigade near Leninskoye and Umanskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
11 counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 24th, 47th, 100th mechanised brigades, 59th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 25th Airborne Brigade, 142th Infantry Brigade, and 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment were repelled near Schumy, Novgorodskoye, Vodyanoye, Solovyovo, Semyonovka, Pervomayskoye, and Netaylovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 415 Ukrainian troops, one German-made Leopard tank, four armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
Units of the Vostok Group of Forces captured more advantageous lines and repelled two counter-attacks of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade and 123rd Territorial Defence Brigade near Urozhaynoye and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 170 Ukrainian troops, one tank, three armoured fighting vehicles, including one U.S.-made M113 armoured personnel carrier, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M198 howitzer, and one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system.
Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware clusters of the AFU 65th Mechanised Brigade, 15th National Guard Brigade, 35th Marines Brigade, and 121st Territorial Defence Brigade near Rabotino, Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region), Ivanovka, and Tyaginka (Kherson region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 55 Ukrainian troops, three motor vehicles, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Groups of Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed one unmanned aerial vehicle production workshop of the AFU 101st Territorial Defence Brigade, AFU ammunition and missile artillery depots.
In addition, clusters of AFU manpower and hardware have been engaged in 113 areas.
Air defence units shot down one U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missile, three French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs, as well as 11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, 594 airplanes, 270 helicopters, 23,828 unmanned aerial vehicles, 512 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,950 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,280 combat vehicles of multiple rocket launcher systems, 9,385 field artillery guns and mortars, and 21,548 special military vehicles have been neutralised since the beginning of the special military operation.

No-one said attrition had to be quick, better to be thorough.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 16:17 utc | 5

There’s no way the current U.S. administration led by a cadaver in the White House, in an electoral year, is going to send troops to a war that from the beginning was scripted to be fought to the last Ukrainian. And there’s no way NATO will officially send troops to this proxy war, because they will be minced into steak tartare in a matter of hours.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/05/08/tale-two-sovereigns-lackey-and-nanny/
sorry if this has been posted

Posted by: ld | May 8 2024 16:23 utc | 6

This was too important anti-propaganda tool to be posted as an afterthought…
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 8 2024 2:50 utc | 252
“I happen not to agree with this. It’s an old trope based purely on radiological prejudice and fear. Think it through…”
First time I have heard something sensible. I may not agree with some of the more sensational claims e.g, “dial a nuke” for technical reasons. However, I agree with the spirit of the article.
A nuke is a few kilograms of very very heavy materials. After, it is vaporized only a few grams of it is turned into explosive energy, the rest is all the same material + few isotopes of again very heavy material. These materials sink very quickly to earth, sink in water, are taken in run-offs by creeks and rivers to the sea. Where they sink further to the bottom of the large body of water. So things come back to their pristine state as is witnessed by Wherever bombs were exploded, tested, and things are back to normal in a few years. Check Nevada, Japanese cities.
The other way it can happen, is nuclear reactors going out of control. Chernobyl, and Fukushima come to mind. These involve radioactive material which is in tons instead of mere kilograms. However, we see that both Chernobyl and Fukushima are thriving.
So this narrative of nuclear material being too dangerous is hogwash.
I do not dispute that they will kill people around the explosion site, but most of the “nuclear holocaust” and “nuclear night” is bullshit! Of course, it is endorsed only by filmmakers: who don’t know first thing about hard sciences; the intelligence agencies ( glorified marketers) and other eedjuts who find it too hard to study hard sciences.
So, go ahead use them! Philosophically speaking, a bomb that does not explode is not a bomb!

Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 16:24 utc | 7

Some ‘territorial losses’ for the Ukrainian energy grid: https://ukranews.com/en/news/1004388-russians-attacks-ukrainian-energy-facilities-in-6-regions-energy-ministry

Overnight into May 8, the russian army attacked energy infrastructure in six regions of Ukraine.
This follows from a statement by the Minister of Energy of Ukraine, Herman Halushchenko, posted on the Telegram channel.
“Electricity generation and transmission facilities in Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Vinnytsia Regions were attacked,” the official said.
According to Halushchenko, the consequences are being clarified, and energy experts are already working on their elimination.
“The enemy wants to deprive us of the opportunity to sufficiently produce and transmit electricity. Economical use of electricity is a contribution of each of us to victory. Responsible consumption in the morning and evening hours is especially important,” he added.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on April 11, russian invaders attacked critical energy infrastructure facilities in four regions of Ukraine.
On April 12, Deputy Minister of Energy Svitlana Hrynchuk reported that Ukraine might return to restrictions on the supply of electricity if the russian army continues massive attacks on the energy sector.
On April 16, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine had run out of missiles during the russian attack on the Trypilska thermal power plant.

~~~
https://ukranews.com/en/news/1004432-ukraine-will-receive-emergency-aid-from-eu-power-systems-on-wednesday

On Wednesday, May 8, during the morning peak hours, at the request of Ukraine, an emergency supply of electricity from the power systems of Poland, Romania, and Slovakia is carried out, while in the evening hours, restrictions on electricity consumers may be applied.
This was announced by the Ministry of Energy, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
“Due to network restrictions on the lines of the transmission system operator, power outage schedules were applied yesterday in the Kharkiv Region and for industry in Kryvyi Rih. Restrictions in these regions are still in effect today (in Kharkiv for 200,000 consumers). In other regions, consumers were not restricted. In the southern regions in order to prevent overloading of the equipment of one of the high-voltage substations, the operator of the transmission system limited the production of electricity from RES from 10:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.,” the message reads.
Last day, the needs of consumers were covered by own generation and commercial imports, and at the request of Poland, Ukraine urgently supplied electricity to this country in the evening hours.
Import of electricity in the amount of 7,600 MW/h is forecast for the current day.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on the night of May 8, russian invaders attacked energy infrastructure in six regions of Ukraine.

~~~
https://ukranews.com/en/news/1004455-on-wednesday-power-outages-possible-throughout-ukraine-from-6-pm-to-11-pm-ukrenergo

On Wednesday, May 8, there may be restrictions on the supply of electricity for household and industrial consumers throughout Ukraine from 06:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m.
This was announced by the press service of the Ukrenergo national energy company, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
“Tonight from 6:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m. it is possible to restrict household and industrial consumers throughout Ukraine. The restrictions will be evenly distributed across all regions. Exactly how the power outage schedules will operate in each region will be published on the official pages of local regional energy companies. The reason is a shortage of electricity in the power system. It arose due to new damage to the equipment of Ukrainian power plants caused by russian strikes,” the message says.
According to the report, overnight into May 8, the russian occupiers fired more than 50 missiles and 20 Shaheds at the energy infrastructure in the Lviv, Vinnytsia, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, and Ivano-Frankivsk Regions.
“This is already the fifth massive missile-drone attack on energy facilities since March 22. Heat and hydroelectric plants were damaged. Also, russian Shaheds damaged the equipment of one of the Ukrenergo facilities in the central region. Currently, consumers in this region has been revived by backup schemes. Currently, the Emergency Service is working on the damaged objects, and emergency restoration work is ongoing,” the message says.

But, but muh 0.0000000001% territory

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 16:40 utc | 8

Posted by: Down South | May 8 2024 15:40 utc | 2
Ukraine’s energy company DTEK a month or two ago, during the last large attack on energy facilities made a statement that most generation was destroyed. RUAF probably didn’t buy it, they observed the generation plants and struck them again once determining that some of them were still functional. So essentially finished them off.

Posted by: unimperator | May 8 2024 16:49 utc | 9

It can br that Russian leadership finally realizes that this is a total war. But we shall know that for aure only if Ukro 750 KV equipment is hit.
Only after that can Russian actions be taken seriously.
Destruction of energy sistem is the only area where Russia is able to escalate, besides nuclear war and it creates situation in which EU has to cobstantly provide elecricity for Ukraine.
From the begining I knew that it would come to this. Maybe guys from Kremlin realized that the peace offer from their beloved west would never come.

Posted by: vargas | May 8 2024 16:53 utc | 10

Headline in the oz government trash rag ABC “Ukrainian officials say they’ve intercepted a plot to assassinate Volodymyr Zelenskyy. What happens if the country lost the ‘public face’ of the war”
Apparently the US is looking for a replacement for Cokeman. The way thing are going now, his only value to the west is the propaganda value of his death. It struck with those headlines that this was a drum roll, a build up for the propaganda about his killing by the evil Russians. Sometime around the 21st may not only be the expiry date of his elected term but also his own expiry.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 8 2024 16:54 utc | 11

As far as I can see Oliver Boyd Barrett on his Substack is the one where the claim originated that Biden would escalate after a Nov. win.
But what are Barrett´s sources?
Because as writing a novel is concerned, I can do that too – so I expect a little more substance behind this.
It´s not about belief but about proof, about evidence. Since without I can say anything that sounds cool, or wise, or scary.
Another claim of his is this:
“In the event of a major NATO aggression or clear threat of one I believe Russia will strike at the NATO forces with relatively low grade, low radiation missiles (tactical weapons), and NATO logistics centers in Romania and Poland, with its heavier nuclear weapons on full alert ready for Armageddon.”
That sounds a bit like NYT truth-telling. Or scaring the kids with a smart story.
By now I have met too many people who have had close contact with those who actually are involved with WMDs in the West.
And yes they warned of the incompetence in the US SoS and the DoD, among them many executive style PhDs who know shit about war. But as much there are still sane minds left. And most RU personnel is not eager to blow up the planet either.
It´s easy to write this in a blog. But how does he know to use the near indicative, “I believe Russia will strike”.

Posted by: AG | May 8 2024 16:56 utc | 12

Looks like some of the Ukraine big wigs are wanting to stop the war by cutting off the head of the snake.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/ukraine/ukrainian-military-attempts-to-assassinate-zelensky/

Posted by: ursel doran | May 8 2024 16:58 utc | 13

Posted by: unimperator | May 8 2024 16:49 utc | 9
I think that comment refers to assets belonging to DTEK, other companies still have some level of functional facilities, though the attrition of those is ongoing.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 17:05 utc | 14

@10 vargas
The 750 kw transformers are necessary to keep electricity going to the nuke power plants to keep them from melting down, or to give them a place to send out their power I’m not really sure.
At any rate blowing them up increases the risk of a nuclear incident and could be classified as a quasi nuclear attack, even on top of the horrendous expense and time to replace them.
I expect they could only be hit as part of a russian defense against a Nato intervention in Ukraine, possibly in conjunction with tactical nuke strikes on nato troops in Russian territory.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 8 2024 17:17 utc | 15

Electric power companies of Ukraine:
Activ Solar, Centrenergo, Dniproenergo, Donbasenergo, DTEK, Energy Company of Ukraine, Ukrenergo, Ukrhydroenergo, Zakhidenergo
Total plant count is not easy to get.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 8 2024 17:23 utc | 16

Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 16:24 utc | 7

I do not dispute that they will kill people around the explosion site, but most of the “nuclear holocaust” and “nuclear night” is bullshit!

—-
Go read The Year without a Summer. The explosion of Krakatoa in Java put so much material into the stratosphere that the whole world was cold for a year. It was called a “volcanic winter”.
It is your conceit which is hogwash – that setting off literally thousands of nuclear bombs will not cause “nuclear winter”(the correct term, not your made up one).
This “nuclear is nothing but a big bomb” propaganda trope is dangerous normalization of the end of the world. You are either incredibly naive or a shill for the MIC.

Posted by: john brewster | May 8 2024 17:24 utc | 17

Perfect example of how the cheerleadosphere exaggerates territorial gains:
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1788175962783228088 (GeromanAT)
“Russian forces are now taking one or two km almost every day here and there – they also took now more settlements in the last 2 months than Ukraine in their whole so called counteroffensive.
But there are still NATO idiots out there thinking the regime in Kiev can win this.”
He is confusing himself. The front is several 100 km long. So an isolated gain of a km at a specific spot is tiny. If one side gains a sqkm per day, that is only 30 sqkm per month, or .01% country terrain change/month.
Also, while I agree it was ineffectual, the Ukrop counteroffensive actually took MORE territory in 6 months (.10%) than the Russians did last 6 months (.06%).
This isn’t even about muh attrition cope. This is the pro Russia side confusing itself, from looking at all the Dima clickbait titles and not looking at the War Mapper monthly terrain change.
Lastly, you shouldn’t assume, I am pro Ukrop (or the converse) because I point out the flaws in the chearleadosphere thinking. It’s as if you are so used to pro RFA having RFA copes and the converse, that that is how you think everyone is. I’m interested in reality REGARDLESS if it fits what I want to happen.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2024 17:31 utc | 18

Re: #6
“There’s no way the current U.S. administration led by a cadaver in the White House, in an electoral year, is going to send troops to a war that from the beginning was scripted to be fought to the last Ukrainian”.
Consider that the ability to “elect” and even re-run said cadaver suggests that these people can do almost anything they want in an “election” year.

Posted by: Dave | May 8 2024 17:47 utc | 19

Re: #6
“There’s no way the current U.S. administration led by a cadaver in the White House, in an electoral year, is going to send troops to a war that from the beginning was scripted to be fought to the last Ukrainian”.
Consider that the ability to “elect” and even re-run said cadaver suggests that these people can do almost anything they want in an “election” year.

Posted by: Dave | May 8 2024 17:47 utc | 20

Many people hrere do not understand Anonymous.
He is not saying that the Russian army is not tryimng to beak Ukro defense.
He is not saying that Ukro loses are small.
He is saying that in spite of the Ukro losses, Russia cannot advance because it would face unacceptable losses.

Posted by: vargas | May 8 2024 17:59 utc | 21

Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2024 17:31 utc | 18
I really don’t get why you are so fixated on measuring the SMO through the narrow aperture of territory gained. This makes you come across as an ill-informed pro-Ukraine troll.
I ask you now to consider the bigger picture; the continuing degradation of Ukraine’s electrical grid, with its knock-on effects for manufacturing and transport (to name but two); the catatonic state of Ukraine’s national finances, relying totally on Western largesse; the complete chaos of Ukrainian military recruits being rushed to the front line without even basic training, leaving aside the increasing push-back from the population against press-gang thuggery; the inability of the West to actually produce meaningful levels of equipment (where are the F-16s, btw?) despite loud proclamations.
How about those latest missile strikes? Don’t they suggest to you that Russia already has muh copium, muh cheerleading…
***News Flash*** Ukraine will collapse, it is inevitable.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 18:01 utc | 22

I think it is about time, after weeks of this, to suggest that maybe attempting to explain faults in territorial fixation as a gauge for the SMO to certain visitors here is an exercise in total futility. I’ve seen the same arguments with the same points brought up by the same people to the same people almost daily over the last few weeks. The threads get difficult to follow from bloat as it is.

Posted by: boneless | May 8 2024 18:11 utc | 23

This “nuclear is nothing but a big bomb” propaganda trope is dangerous normalization of the end of the world. You are either incredibly naive or a shill for the MIC.
Posted by: john brewster | May 8 2024 17:24 utc | 17
The two are not mutually exclusive. Could be a naive shill.

Posted by: Phil R | May 8 2024 18:18 utc | 24

Posted by: boneless | May 8 2024 18:11 utc | 23
OK, point taken. I shall have to install that ‘Ignore’ software linked in another thread.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 18:20 utc | 25

@ Anonymous | May 8 2024 17:31 utc | 18
i second @ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 18:01 utc | 22 comment to you… based on the way you frame all this, you fail to understand the bigger picture of what is taking place here.. it truly is like the difference between chess – a long game – and checkers – a quick game… what continues to unfold is a long game, not a short and quick game.. i take it you are an american..

Posted by: james | May 8 2024 18:22 utc | 26

@ boneless | May 8 2024 18:11 utc | 23
there is that too.. it’s an ongoing pattern here at moa.. it hinges on a number of factors – often dependent on how long the poster has been at moa… there is no excuse for me, but i do feel answering questions can be beneficial, not that everyone agrees.. sometimes it does seem like one is talking to the wall..

Posted by: james | May 8 2024 18:24 utc | 27

@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 18:20 utc | 25
@ james | May 8 2024 18:24 utc | 27
The discussion itself has been informative with different angles of approach and I do not wish to imply it is not valuable in it of itself. However, I sense half of MOA has been talking to a wall, genuine or otherwise, with diminishing returns.

Posted by: boneless | May 8 2024 18:28 utc | 28

Headline in the oz government trash rag ABC “Ukrainian officials say they’ve intercepted a plot to assassinate Volodymyr Zelenskyy. What happens if the country lost the ‘public face’ of the war”
Apparently the US is looking for a replacement for Cokeman. The way thing are going now, his only value to the west is the propaganda value of his death. It struck with those headlines that this was a drum roll, a build up for the propaganda about his killing by the evil Russians. Sometime around the 21st may not only be the expiry date of his elected term but also his own expiry.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 8 2024 16:54 utc | 11
———————-
Thenceforth Ukraine becomes openly analogous to “free & democratic” South Vietnam, a game of presidential musical chairs. Between a bunch of illegitimate droogs.
Zelensky at least had the fig-leaf of crooked elections. Until this month.
Oh, funnily and enough VV Putin also becomes the only elected president on the territory of former Ukraine.
Arguably *the* president of all of it. Given the Russian Federation’s status as the U.S.S.R’s “successor” and the illegality of how the Soviet Union was broken up…

Posted by: Urban Fox | May 8 2024 18:35 utc | 29

john brewster | May 8 2024 17:24 utc | 17
Nuclear holocaust is an older and more general term than the nuclear winter hypothesis. A hypothesis who’s models do not accurately predict the results of a large number of fires, most notably the ones resulting from the burning of the Kuwait oil fields. The doomsday predictions from the models also used the most extreme results that they could pull from now seen to be inaccurate models.
I think the threat of people who spread untested hypothesize as settled science is more of a threat than nuclear winter.

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 8 2024 18:36 utc | 30

He is saying that in spite of the Ukro losses, Russia cannot advance because it would face unacceptable losses.
Posted by: vargas | May 8 2024 17:59 utc | 21
Well, that’s what it’s all about. Of course, Russia could have overrun Ukraine – but with very significant losses. Russia could also have atomized the suburbs of Kiev – they didn’t want that either.
The third solution also has advantages and disadvantages. You can’t present brilliant victories to the audience – but through continuous bleeding, not only Ukraine, but also its key supporters and their organizations such as the EU and NATO are losing internal cohesion. And at the same time, the Russians are also learning how to successfully combat Western weapon systems – which they could use very well in a war against NATO.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | May 8 2024 18:42 utc | 31

Oops if that’s a find, because from around May 20th, i.e. before June, around 120,000 NATO soldiers are stationed on the Belorussian Baltic Polish Romanian border with Ukraine and Russia under the cover of various maneuvers.
Message RT
But judge for yourself:
At the upcoming summit in July, NATO wants to enshrine in writing its rejection of the deployment of troops in the Ukraine conflict. According to the media, the document stipulates, among other things, that management of the Ramstein Group will be handed over from the USA to Brussels.
.
NATO wants to clearly state that there will be no deployment of troops to Ukraine. The Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reported this on Wednesday with reference to a draft of the relevant document. “No boots on the ground” is one of the key terms of the document that will be adopted at the NATO summit from July 9th to 11th in Washington.
Ex-Pentagon advisor: “Emmanuel Macron has clearly gone too far”
Ex-Pentagon advisor: “Emmanuel Macron has clearly gone too far”
The draft also stipulates that the leadership of the so-called Ramstein contact group, which coordinates the military support of the 50 countries for Ukraine, will be changed, Corriere said. So far it is the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin who leads the group. However, at the July summit it will be decided to transfer this task to NATO headquarters in Brussels.
The move has a practical reason, as the majority of the material delivered to Kiev comes from the 32 NATO countries. Politically speaking, the West’s approach would appear more unanimous in the eyes of both public opinion and Vladimir Putin’s.
Furthermore, the military alliance would like to continue to strengthen the eastern flank. According to the Corriere report, within a few weeks NATO could expect to have a reserve of 300,000 troops to deploy in areas from the Baltics to Bulgaria.
French President Emmanuel Macron has spoken several times about sending Western troops to Ukraine. According to him, there is so far “no consensus” on the issue. Other high-ranking Western politicians such as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and US President Joe Biden ruled out deploying troops.

Posted by: ossi | May 8 2024 18:48 utc | 32

I think it is about time, after weeks of this, to suggest that maybe attempting to explain faults in territorial fixation as a gauge for the SMO to certain visitors here is an exercise in total futility. I’ve seen the same arguments with the same points brought up by the same people to the same people almost daily over the last few weeks. The threads get difficult to follow from bloat as it is.
Posted by: boneless | May 8 2024 18:11 utc | 23

It’s like cows writing to some BBQ forum saying that people are fools because they are not vegan: cows should know, they have been vegan for years. And other cows asking people to at least “eat moar chikin”…

Posted by: Poslan1 | May 8 2024 18:50 utc | 33

Posted by: john brewster | May 8 2024 17:24 utc | 17
“Go read The Year without a Summer. The explosion of Krakatoa in Java put so much material into the stratosphere that the whole world was cold for a year. It was called a “volcanic winter”.
It is your conceit which is hogwash – that setting off literally thousands of nuclear bombs will not cause “nuclear winter”(the correct term, not your made up…”

Please, open up a book on basic physics…I know it is hard to read and reason: after all, that is why lazy people read
People lacking intestinal fortitude are exactly the targets of these marketing liars. Try not to succumb to such blatant scare-mongering.
Let’s not engage in gutter warfare; it is beneath me. I am not known as a person who takes kindly to brainwashed people.
Next time, watch the language!

Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 19:04 utc | 34

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 8 2024 18:36 utc | 30

Oil fied fires are a red herring. They do not loft particles into the stratosphere, which is why nuke particulates take so long to fall out.
I do not consider being afraid of nuclear war as being more of a threat than rapturists who say “bring it on”

Posted by: John brewster | May 8 2024 19:12 utc | 35

Prepping the masses / telegraphing their passes?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-08/zelenskyy-assassination-plot/103818948

Posted by: Rae | May 8 2024 19:16 utc | 36

*hypothesis
Haven’t found a study on the damages from such, this seems an interesting read that would be a good article to research in forming my hypothesis on the damages of “settled science”.
Too bad so many things science, publicly funded, are put behind paywalls. Ones you’d need a grant to afford. “Purchase 24 hour online access to view and download content. Article – $37.50 Issue – $460.00”
No wonder people go to the media for nonsense instead of doing research, who can afford it?
————————
Abstract
Informal reasoning fallacies belong to a persuasive tactic, leading to a conclusion that is not supported by premises but reached through emotions and/or misleading and incomplete information. Previous research focused on the ability to recognize informal reasoning fallacies. However, the recognition itself does not necessarily mean immunity to their influence on decisions made. An experiment was designed to study the relationship between the presence of informal reasoning fallacies and a consequent decision. Having conducted paired comparisons of distributions, we have found some support for the hypothesis that informal reasoning fallacies affect decision-making more substantially than non-fallacious reasoning—strong support in the case of a slippery slope, weak in that of appeal to fear, anecdotal evidence argument defying evaluation. Numeracy and cognitive reflection seem to be associated with higher resistance to the slippery slope, but do not diminish appeal to fear.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/10434631211033658

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 8 2024 19:18 utc | 37

Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 19:04 utc | 3
—-
Your post us nothing but invective. You don’t address the issue I raise; you just call me stupid
As for invective, you called nuclear winter hogwash first. I merely quoted you.

Posted by: John brewster | May 8 2024 19:19 utc | 38

22:
1. In the history of armed conflict, the ability to take territory is a pretty fundamental and important metric. Sure there might be some times where it does not apply, but a lot less than 50%.
2. In this case, it’s not even ABOUT terrain versus attrition. It’s about one of the people on your “side” babbling about terrain, itself! You all confuse yourselves with all the Dima clickbait titles.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2024 19:20 utc | 39

John brewster | May 8 2024 19:12 utc | 35
The nuclear winter hypothesis are based on the fire storms created by the nuclear devices, not their explosions. The Kuwait fires are the closest thing that has been able to be observed to fire storms that are theorized to be created by a nuclear war. How is the closest thing to the theory put forth that has been observed a “red herring”.

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 8 2024 19:20 utc | 40

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 8 2024 18:36 utc | 30
A very reasonable perspective.
All these super-scintists, probably never opened a hard sciences book. There is a huge difference between, theory, hypothesis, and law.
If your brain does not work,you read garbage and you claim, “Science” says. It is most certain that the gentleman belongs to the, “scientists said” group.
I have trouble abiding by people who are mentally not quick on their feet.
It is like the actors, they hire at JPL for applauding, when they communicate with a satellite or when a rover lands. Wearing a labcoat and high fiving a bunch of other loosers doesn’t make a serious scientist. The best they can do is use brushes on dead skeletons and call it a scientific find!
I can bet that not a single person on this board has ever read and understood “Das Kapital”. However, they call themselves communists!
I will leave it at that, otherwise I have a lot of stuff I need to say to these “highy educated” people.

Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 19:23 utc | 41

Footage of Putin’s inauguration:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/russia/putin-sworn-in-on-ecm-may-7th-target/
Footage of Biden’s inauguration (leaving out the barbed wire and military troops surrounding the event:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4JT-IhUoTg
According to the Mighty Wurlitzer, the “world” heaved a sign of relief when Biden was sworn in, because the adults were back in charge.
According to the Mighty Wurlitzer, Russia’s election was farcical, Putin’s opponents were killed or thrown off the ballot, also having three of Putin’s opponents meet after the election was another farce (wait: isn’t that contradictory? No matter, they contain multitudes), and the “world” is horrified at another Putin term.
If you disagree with the Mighty Wurlitzer you are a Thought Criminal, and will be banned, fined, or imprisoned, depending on which legislation is passed.
I’m SO proud to live in the Land Of The Free And The Home Of The Brave.

Posted by: wagelaborer | May 8 2024 19:36 utc | 42

Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2024 19:20 utc | 39
What exactly are “Dima clickbait titles”?
If you wish to waste your time with amateur Youtube “analysts” you are of course free to do so; you will find yourself getting bogged down in minutiae, losing sight of broader perspectives.
Personally I don’t bother with any of that stuff.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 19:38 utc | 43

Patiently explaining over and over…
I doubt it is coincidence that the majority if not all who require this now, appeared here after Feb 2022.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 8 2024 19:41 utc | 44

james@26….on the pro circuit, chess is clocked….many non pro games are ‘touch’ chess, as in, you touch the piece, you move it, no room for daydreamers….
Not bragging, not my style, but I’ve won a few high school tournaments…I’ve was never taught the lie back and wait, in chess the art of the win lies in capturing the opposing King as swiftly as possible, with as many of his best men still on the board, ridiculously embarrassing. Too old school perhaps.
Cheers M
….once, through friends, I met a fella who fancied himself at Backgammon and Chess, no one would play him. One night I took up the chess challenge, he asked if I could play, I lied, first game I threw, not easy, just sussed him out. He said not bad, wanna play again, I said sure. I beat him fairly easily. He looked different, asked for a rubber….the afterburner shock on his face on the second loss was priceless….I did own up, he too was a highschool champ, like war, different styles.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 8 2024 19:44 utc | 45

It was the proponents of nuclear winter who said that the Kuwait oil fires would cause a nuclear winter like effect for a large area, with hundreds less wells than what were ignited.
https://web.archive.org/web/20141006144456/http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-01-23/news/1991023131_1_kuwait-saddam-hussein-sagan
There is a huge problem, that I have already mentioned, unless you are associated/paid by those who maintain the wall against actual science all you have is things like old archived Baltimore sun articles.
“Kuwaiti oil fires—Modeling revisited”
“The scientists, using modeling techniques, raised the speculations about the global impact which, however, was discounted at a later stage.”
“US$35.95
Local taxes may apply
Online access for 48 hours with the option to save or download the article in PDF format.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/1352231094903611

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 8 2024 19:46 utc | 46

i have put togeather a user interface tampermonkey script for MoA.
what i have available is a javascript file and a text documentation file.
i am going to be working on a introductory video for it. may take some time.
if there is anyone familiar with fetching gist files and installing a script
in tempermonkey and can add comments to gist you can try it. if you see more
than about 4 comments please dont try. i cant handle too many people.
this has been used for 9 months but there may still be problems.
tested on ubuntu linux with opera, brave and chromium browsers.
also tested on android pixel 5a phone and pixel tablet with the kiwi browser app.
the android stuff has limitatioins. the javascript is around 1600 lines.
the documentation is around 470 lines of dense text (after all i am a programmer).
i have tried to address a lot of the complaints i have seen on MoA.
– XTomScript.user.js – tampermonkey script for MOA
jsgist
– moaichg.txt – XTomScript.user.js documentation
docgist

Posted by: frkorz | May 8 2024 19:52 utc | 47

I can bet that not a single person on this board has ever read and understood “Das Kapital”. However, they call themselves communists!
Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 19:23 utc | 41
===============================================
Sorry Comrade – But you are wrong there.
(Engineer-John – – – Marxist)

Posted by: Engineer-John | May 8 2024 20:07 utc | 48

@Nasir @Rhymerez
Hogwash and obfuscation.
The theory of nuclear winter takes into account several factors:
– high impact of explosions
– fires over large areas throw up smoke and soot high into the atmosphere
– large fires in cities burn oil and plastics
The combination of those factors makes a nuclear winter after an extended exchange highly probable. In comparison the Kuwait oil fires miss one or more criteria for the emrgence of a “nuclear” winter.

Posted by: darkmoon | May 8 2024 20:10 utc | 49

But, but muh 0.0000000001% territory…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 16:40 utc | 8
Excellent!!!

Posted by: Naive | May 8 2024 20:17 utc | 50

darkmoon | May 8 2024 20:10 utc | 49
Carl Sagan specifically says in their predictions of the effects of the oil well fires were based on the nuclear winter calculations.
“we know from nuclear winter calculations . . . that there is a phenomenon called self-lofting . . . [in which] the soot absorbs sunlight, heats up, heats the surrounding air, and the hot air then rises, carrying soot with it. It produces a higher plume.” -Carl Sagan (article already linked).

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 8 2024 20:19 utc | 51

@ sean the leprechaun | May 8 2024 19:44 utc | 45
lol..good story! i was a bit leery of using the chess analogy because i know it has been overused.. and yes – there are different ways to play the game… if you get a chance, satyajit ray did a movie called the chess players.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chess_Players_(film)
the idea that things are not as they seem and that their are layers to any game, has to be taken into consideration, but not everyone thinks this way.. i guess it is a bit like psychology.. those with no psychological insight will be prone to falling in a ditch in relations with others… its the same deal with regard to war and understanding war.. it is more complicated then chess actually!

Posted by: james | May 8 2024 20:21 utc | 52

I can bet that not a single person on this board has ever read and understood “Das Kapital”. However, they call themselves communists!
Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 19:23 utc | 41
Strawman fallacy. Why didn’t you back up your bet with some money? I would be richer now. And another fallacy for I am not marxist. Like Marx.

Posted by: Naive | May 8 2024 20:23 utc | 53

A 300-meter-long St. George ribbon was unfurled at the Saur Mogila memorial near Donetsk
Europe too is just bursting with patriotic demonstrations small and big… oh, wait… (Emily Litella voice) never mind.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 8 2024 20:29 utc | 54

Those who seem paid to misunderstand need not be educated more than once. 🙂 The “pushing of the propaganda,” talking points recital without real engagement or debate, gives their game away thereafter. Adults tend to disengage from such bad faith actors and leave these brick walls to its sad echoes.
Try it, you just may like it.
/cheep

Posted by: titmouse | May 8 2024 20:32 utc | 55

@ nasir #41
“I can bet that not a single person on this board has ever read and understood “Das Kapital”. However, they call themselves communists!
Firstly, not all those who have read, and seriously studied, Kapital are most certainly not “communists”. I prefer the term “Marxist” myself and have used “in the broad Marxist tradition to describe those who follow its key insights and build on them for modern times. There are a well tuned few in the bar at times.
Many, in fact, have found that the scientific, yes “scientific”, and empirically based for its time, and structural insights contained within Marxism provide a rigorous social scientific, including but not limited to “economics”, template for both understanding and explanatics of human life all around us.
And, yes, I’m well grounded in both the ‘hard’ sciences, and in the Continental European Philosophical tradition.
Still want to bet? “not a single one” … tut tut tut that’s not a hypothesis – it’s a signature of childish arrogance as your tutor, assuming you had one, might have put it.

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 8 2024 20:33 utc | 56

I can bet that not a single person on this board has ever read and understood “Das Kapital”. However, they call themselves communists!
Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 19:23 utc | 41
Not sure who calls themselves communists, but I would bet you’re wrong about Das Kapital. I can think of a few regulars that I’m pretty sure have read and understood it.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 8 2024 20:35 utc | 57

Oops @nasir #41 on my #56

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 8 2024 20:36 utc | 58

“However, we see that both Chernobyl and Fukushima are thriving.” 7
References for this? What is your definition of thriving? Both are still highly radioactive and will be for thousands of years.

Posted by: Foreigner | May 8 2024 20:39 utc | 59

Posted this to the wrong thread. Here’s where it belongs.
As of August 2023, at least eight countries have conducted 2,056 nuclear tests since 1945.
We’re still here.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | May 8 2024 20:47 utc | 60

A couple of points:
1. Putin said in the beginning that the war will be fought so as not create a war economy. This partly explains, and matches, the Russian slow but steady and risk adverse approach. The Russians can therefor afford to fight this war indefinitely.
2. Any engagement between NATO and Russia is by definition not contained strictly to Ukraine. It will go nuclear in a matter of weeks, IMHO. Both sides know it.

Posted by: Sally | May 8 2024 20:53 utc | 61

@ Foreigner | May 8 2024 20:39 utc | 59
There are rumors that Chernobyl’s outskirts property is being bought at a premium thanks to its distance from the closest roaming TCK mobilization/kidnap crews. Real estate business there sure is, one could say, thriving.

Posted by: boneless | May 8 2024 20:59 utc | 62

Posted by: Foreigner | May 8 2024 20:39 utc | 59
Both are still highly radioactive and will be for thousands of years.
Chernobyl has a thriving nature. Living for humans is possible there but not allowed. Fukushima is in all-day working mode with offices and cafeteria on the premises. Only in the reactor hall is restricted time of working necessary in the process of disassembling.

Posted by: dors Venabili | May 8 2024 21:02 utc | 63

there is a short clip on ” bit chute .com /video/BNcvZmWmiq0w/ ” (without the space, seems to be blocked here?) that has no youtube short currently.
its about a reporter asking karin jean-pierre why the us is not condemmning ukrainian manifestation of nazism, and her answer is that 79 years ago, the us joined forces with our ukrainian allies to fight the opressive forces of hitler and stalin.
this is either an elaborate fake, or the biden administration is completely insane.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 8 2024 21:05 utc | 64

Justpassinby | May 8 2024 21:05 utc | 64
79 years ago would be 1945. From wikipedia…
“The United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) dates from September 18, 1947, when President Harry S. Truman signed the National Security Act of 1947 into law. A major impetus that has been cited over the years[citation needed] for the creation of the CIA was the unforeseen attack on Pearl Harbor,[1] but whatever Pearl Harbor’s role, at the close of World War II government circles identified a need for a group to coordinate government intelligence efforts, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the State Department, the War Department, and even the Post Office were all jockeying for that new power.
About the time the US began working with Bandera and his Ukraine nazi crew against the Soviet Union.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 8 2024 21:14 utc | 65

Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 19:23 utc | 41
Hey, Nasir!
If you get vapourised in the blast, you won’t get to find out if nuclear winter is a thing or not.

Posted by: oldhand | May 8 2024 21:25 utc | 66

I can bet that not a single person on this board has ever read and understood “Das Kapital”. However, they call themselves communists!
Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 19:23 utc | 41
===============================================
Sorry Comrade – But you are wrong there.
(Engineer-John – – – Marxist)
Posted by: Engineer-John | May 8 2024 20:07 utc | 48
———————————————————
OT, but enough noise.
I take my readings from the pages of William Jefferson Clinton. ‘Depends on what the meaning of “understood” is.’

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 8 2024 21:27 utc | 67

this is either an elaborate fake, or the biden administration is completely insane.
Posted by: Justpassinby | May 8 2024 21:05 utc | 64
——————————————————-
‘Dumb as rocks’ is pretty much the opinion on KJP. She also has a high DEI score.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 8 2024 21:30 utc | 68

I can bet that not a single person on this board has ever read and understood “Das Kapital”. However, they call themselves communists!
Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 19:23 utc | 41
I read it in the 70s, all three volumes. Helped me understand how capital and labour related to each. It was useful as i was a trade union rep as well and for the first time I understood how the company made profit. Anyway, before long I joined the Communist Party of Great Britain.

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 8 2024 21:32 utc | 69

this is either an elaborate fake, or the biden administration is completely insane.
Posted by: Justpassinby | May 8 2024 21:05 utc | 64
——————————————————-
‘Dumb as rocks’ is pretty much the opinion on KJP. She also has a high DEI score.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 8 2024 21:30 utc | 68
About the only high score.
If that clip is real.
It’s the most incredible example of historical Ignorance yet!
Welcome to idiocracy!

Posted by: jpc | May 8 2024 21:38 utc | 70

Justpassinby | May 8 2024 21:05 utc | 64
***… a reporter asking karin jean-pierre why the us is not condemmning ukrainian manifestation of nazism ***
It isn’t fair to be asking little Dozy-Doll difficult questions.
Now, the really big question = at what angle of tilt do her eyes open and shut?

Posted by: Cynic | May 8 2024 21:46 utc | 71

What exactly are “Dima clickbait titles”?
If you wish to waste your time with amateur Youtube “analysts” you are of course free to do so; you will find yourself getting bogged down in minutiae, losing sight of broader perspectives.
Personally I don’t bother with any of that stuff.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 19:38 utc | 43
——————-
Those types are a mixed bag at best “Dima’s” latest kick is a few drone strikes & hapless doomed Ukrs faffing about on the shores & islands of the Dniper-Kherson area.
Means the AFU has “superiority” in the area. So thus will somehow manage a big ole cross-river offensive.
Even though anything resembling that failed already and at a time when the front the east was doing better (not good but better). Whilst the AFU is also having to spread themselves thin in Kharkov, to cover that border area.
Having said that, even if “Dima’s” clickbait premise was correct, well Jubal Early managed to raid through the Shenandoah Valley, sometime in 1864-5 and got quite near Washington D C.
However that didn’t unf**k the Confederacy at all…

Posted by: Urban Fox | May 8 2024 21:53 utc | 72

https://t.me/sheyhtamir1974/85542
Today in Marseille, France.
ROTFL

Posted by: Naive | May 8 2024 21:56 utc | 73

Being well versed in Marxist thought/writings doesn’t automatically make that person a communist, whatever that happens to be. Indeed, being well versed in the Communist Manifesto ought to be the sole criterion as to being a communist. Indeed, there’s an entire school of thought known as Marxist that analyzes all sorts of stuff from the POV of Class and Economics, with the vast majority being non-communist. IMO, there’s no conclusive definition or set of criteria that’s capable of describing what constitutes a communist. That failure was always the big problem with the Anti-Communist Crusade.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 8 2024 21:58 utc | 74

ya see, sometimes even Western loudmouths are silenced and have to walk things back when confronted with (Russia and Belarus) tactical nuke threats use in their back-yard, or heck even on their Western home soils.
fyi,
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240508/nato-no-boots-on-the-ground-ukraine-strategy-meant-to-silence-wests-loudmouths–1118336759.html
NATO ‘No Boots on the Ground’ Ukraine Strategy Meant to Silence West’s ‘Loudmouths’
In the wake of recent Western threats to deploy ground troops in Ukraine, along with other aggressive steps threatening to escalate NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, Russia announced upcoming tactical nuclear missile drills to “cool down the ‘hot heads’.”
The rationale behind NATO’s new “no boots on the ground” in Ukraine strategy is to silence belligerent “loudmouths” in the West, international relations analyst Gilbert Doctorow told Sputnik…..
…..“The Lithuanians are among the most irresponsible member states of the EU with respect to their policy towards Russia, expecting as they do, that the US will back them up if they come into direct conflict with Moscow,” Doctorow stressed.
“The adoption of the decision NOW and the release of that decision to the general public NOW indicates the real effectiveness of the announcement several days ago by the RF Ministry of Defense of exercises to test the preparedness of its ground, sea and air forces to use tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war should Russia’s sovereignty be threatened. This was the Russian push-back to Macron and it worked,” Doctorow said……

Posted by: michaelj72 | May 8 2024 21:59 utc | 75

Krakatoa -> 200 Megatons
Current US Nukes -> 1.2 Megatons
The problem would not be the nuclear winter but the destruction of so many major cities and the following crisis. Look at the harm from two towers in New York. In a full launch scenario, more people probably die from starvation afterwards from food system collapse than production issues caused by less sunlight hitting the Earth.
My opinion is that nukes are the reason that we haven’t had a repeat of WW2. India and Pakistan stopped actively fighting after they got nukes. Maybe we just got lucky but it is not exactly like we’ve ever had sane leaders.
This stupid war just goes on until Ukraine collapses. In 20 years, everyone is going to just look at it as a stupid blunder by a decaying empire that set China up to lead the next century.

Posted by: je | May 8 2024 22:00 utc | 76

He is saying that in spite of the Ukro losses, Russia cannot advance because it would face unacceptable losses.
Posted by: vargas | May 8 2024 17:59 utc | 21
Are you stupid? USSR lost 29 MILLION people in WW2. You Westoid clowns cannot even comprehend what Russians can accept to win.
It’s not that losses are “unacceptable”, it’s just they are not needed. Russia is not limited any time line. It is not concerned with corporate P&L or with upcoming elections. It is not concerned with taking or losing ground.
What it does is optimizing for attrition rates. Losing as fewer people as possible while taking out as much of Banderite and NATO personnel and materiel as possible until the Collective Waste just gives up, just as it did many times before when affluent fat locals become really unhappy with what their kleptocratic elite is doing abroad.
Oh, and nukes… it’s just keeping psychopaths-in-charge properly concerned about their own hides.

Posted by: averros | May 8 2024 22:22 utc | 77

Question for a Russian.
Re #64, 68, 70, 71,
I once saw a comment here that White House spokesthing Karin Jean-Pierre was called ?????? by Russians because she looked like a particular dark-skinned, dreadlocked, Russian children’s cartoon character. I looked it up at the time and it was so true and very funny. But I’ve lost the reference. Unfortunately, not speaking Russian, I couldn’t follow her adventures in the programme.
Who knows the name of this White House cartoon character ???

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 8 2024 22:23 utc | 78

I can bet that not a single person on this board has ever read and understood “Das Kapital”
————————
LOL. I have “excellent” grade for “Scientific Communism” course (mandatory, of course) from Moscow State U.
The main thing I learned about Das Kapital is that this is a voluminous collection of inanities written by a pompous graphomaniac as an exploration of logical derivations from an easily debunked labor theory of value. Compounded witn equally idiotic Hegelian dialectic and even more idiotic primitive materialism.
So, naturally, pretentious fools consider it profound simply because they cannot admit to themselves that their enlightened circle of intellectuals who are all claim to understand that profound opus are just pretentious fools. BTW, same applies to pseudo-profound BS by Keynes.

Posted by: averros | May 8 2024 22:33 utc | 79

Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2024 17:31 utc | 18
You ukrops, are boring, dick sucking imbeciles. Now that Russia is fucking you in the ass, the only thing you come up with is some dumb propaganda while rectum is bleeding. Fuck off

Posted by: Boo | May 8 2024 22:35 utc | 80

From my #78. Just found it!
“When Russians refer to Karine Jean-Pierre as “a house spirit”, they are referring to “Domovyonok Kuzya — Adventures of a Little Brownie”. Lol lol. I just found lots of YT vids in Russian, none with English subs yet.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 8 2024 22:38 utc | 81

das Kapital, the Communist Manifesto, Mein Kampf.
Boring, long-winded books of conjecture and non sequiturs.
I admire anyone who has read these tomes, but I admire more anyone who truly believes they understood the authors.

Posted by: kupkee | May 8 2024 22:40 utc | 82

LOL. I have “excellent” grade for “Scientific Communism” course (mandatory, of course) from Moscow State U.
The main thing I learned about Das Kapital is that this is a voluminous collection of inanities written by a pompous graphomaniac as an exploration of logical derivations from an easily debunked labor theory of value. Compounded witn equally idiotic Hegelian dialectic and even more idiotic primitive materialism.
So, naturally, pretentious fools consider it profound simply because they cannot admit to themselves that their enlightened circle of intellectuals who are all claim to understand that profound opus are just pretentious fools. BTW, same applies to pseudo-profound BS by Keynes.
Posted by: averros | May 8 2024 22:33 utc | 79
I’d bet all who majored in economics had to read a couple of chapters (100-200 pages worth) of das kapital (as well as Ricardo an Menger)… value theory
And yes, with a good editor (cutting 90%) he might have made some nice sci-fi 😀

Posted by: Newbie | May 8 2024 22:57 utc | 83

Posted by: kupkee | May 8 2024 22:40 utc | 82
What is difficult to understand here (Manifesto):
(i) Limitation of private property through progressive taxation, heavy inheritance taxes, abolition of inheritance through collateral lines (brothers, nephews, etc.) forced loans, etc.
(ii) Gradual expropriation of landowners, industrialists, railroad magnates and shipowners, partly through competition by state industry, partly directly through compensation in the form of bonds.
(iii) Confiscation of the possessions of all emigrants and rebels against the majority of the people.
(iv) Organisation of labour or employment of proletarians on publicly owned land, in factories and workshops, with competition among the workers being abolished and with the factory owners, in so far as they still exist, being obliged to pay the same high wages as those paid by the state.
(v) An equal obligation on all members of society to work until such time as private property has been completely abolished. Formation of industrial armies, especially for agriculture.
(vi) Centralisation of money and credit in the hands of the state through a national bank with state capital, and the suppression of all private banks and bankers.
(vii) Increase in the number of national factories, workshops, railroads, ships; bringing new lands into cultivation and improvement of land already under cultivation – all in proportion to the growth of the capital and labour force at the disposal of the nation.
(viii) Education of all children, from the moment they can leave their mother’s care, in national establishments at national cost. Education and production together.
(ix) Construction, on public lands, of great palaces as communal dwellings for associated groups of citizens engaged in both industry and agriculture and combining in their way of life the advantages of urban and rural conditions while avoiding the one-sidedness and drawbacks of each.
(x) Destruction of all unhealthy and jerry-built dwellings in urban districts.
(xi) Equal inheritance rights for children born in and out of wedlock.
(xii) Concentration of all means of transportation in the hands of the nation.

Posted by: Naive | May 8 2024 22:58 utc | 84

Good to see the attacks on strategic targets, both TGG and conventional power generation stations and rail yards……..
This is a must……the 750 KV systems must also be destroyed to eliminate any power transfer from Poland and Romania……..take the whole system down and out and the war economy and NATO resupply collapses in detail….
All oil tank farms and locomotive storage and repair yards must also be eliminated. No fuel and no fuel transport and no rail freight traffic means logistical nightmares for the UFA nazi forces…..dont give them a break, step on their neck. No food, fuel and ammo at the front means short term total defeat.
The USAAF 8th AF campaign of WWII was a partial failure because it did not focus on what really mattered, namely the power and railroad system of the Reich………no transport, no logistics…….no army support…..

Posted by: Tobias Cole | May 8 2024 23:11 utc | 85

What a way to ruin the thread people – keep your literary historical flexes and other off topic issues for the open thread. Thanks

Posted by: Eol | May 8 2024 23:24 utc | 86

The question avoided here is why this infrastructure destruction was morbidly late in commencing. How many Russian lives and Russian families were hurt and ruined or their lives brutally ended by this mucking around.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | May 8 2024 23:24 utc | 87

The question avoided here is why this infrastructure destruction was morbidly late in commencing. How many Russian lives and Russian families were hurt and ruined or their lives brutally ended by this mucking around.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | May 8 2024 23:24 utc | 87
——————————————————-
That topic has been well chewed here on and off over time. Perhaps your participation is recent.
Putin said that he did not want the civilians to freeze over the winter which is a hint that the war effort might be over by then.
The slow destruction of the infrastructure started last year. The discussion here thought it make have taken some time to prepare adequate war material to force the NATO hand, which it looks like they are doing.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 8 2024 23:48 utc | 88

@ Elmagnostic | May 8 2024 23:24 utc | 87
Literally zero. Surgical strikes on infrastructure of a country on this scale not only costs a lot of priority precision ammunition, take a lot of time to plan and execute, but more importantly isn’t entirely permanent. If the military isn’t in position to take advantage of the window of opportunity, then hitting power generation earlier would be little more than annoyance (see Autumn 2022 Russian air campaign, though there could be an argument it could have helped buy time to prepare defense). RAF at the very least appears to be preparing for something now.
The complaints of this type are usually applied in a form alike to “why didn’t Russia just send 2 million men on all out offensive to save lives”. Equally shallow understanding of a complex situation. It is usually designed as a means to discredit via emotional manipulation by focusing on a mirage of innocent deaths.

Posted by: boneless | May 8 2024 23:52 utc | 89

S has a new post
starts with the ammo debacle and caries on to AD and latest putin speech

Posted by: Newbie | May 8 2024 23:55 utc | 90

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 8 2024 19:46 utc | 46
“US$35.95
Local taxes may apply
Online access for 48 hours with the option to save or download the article in PDF format.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/1352231094903611…”
Don’t pay the bastards spewing bad science behind pay walls.
Your thesis will not be allowed to be published: that is how the game is played in the academia. As long as fiat money can be printed, they will work dishonestly. That is why we teach economics and such as way of making money. That is why people invented rankings; so Bush and other idiots can pay exorbitant fees to the universities.
However, you will not find a single graduate student in hard core sciences. Only math, and Physics, maybe chemistry, in universities which were called institutes of technology.
The free/easy money makes everyone do bad shit. From these hustlers, who are easy to spot, to more hardened players who are science enthusiasts instead of hard scientist. For example, the dude from Cornal, Carl Sagan, was an enthusiast not even fit to shine shoes of Lev Landau.
So let people fall victim to scams, it is great to protect yourself from these scammers. That is the best we can do. Do not play the game with their rules and their games.
You are thinking for yourself, which is already a good start.
Good luck!

Posted by: Nasir | May 9 2024 0:10 utc | 91

Posted by: je | May 8 2024 22:00 utc | 76

Krakatoa -> 200 Megatons
Current US Nukes -> 1.2 Megatons

Posted by: john brewster | May 9 2024 0:14 utc | 92

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | May 8 2024 20:47 utc | 60

As of August 2023, at least eight countries have conducted 2,056 nuclear tests since 1945.
We’re still here.

—-
Details please. How many were underground? (no soot). How many were in the ocean, like Bikini Atoll? (again, not much soot) How many were early days 20-100 kilotons? (it would take 10-50 of those to equal one 1 MT). Also, they were spread over, at minimum, 18 years (until above ground test ban).
Furthermore, there is a proposal that those tests did cause temperature stagnation:

The role of atmospheric nuclear explosions on the stagnation of global warming in the mid 20th century
This study suggests that the cause of the stagnation in global warming in the mid 20th century was the atmospheric nuclear explosions detonated between 1945 and 1980. The estimated GST drop due to fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions…The non-negligible amount of GST drop from the actual atmospheric explosions suggests that nuclear winter is not just a theory but has actually occurred, albeit on a small scale

Posted by: john brewster | May 9 2024 0:22 utc | 93

Posted by: Nasir | May 8 2024 19:23 utc | 41
Nothing but vitriol, personal ranting about scientists being idiots.
Come back when you have some facts.

Posted by: john brewster | May 9 2024 0:25 utc | 94

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 8 2024 18:01 utc | 22 ***News Flash*** Ukraine will collapse, it is inevitable.
How much longer do you think it will take?

Posted by: Ed4 | May 9 2024 0:26 utc | 95

Dima has honed his skills overlaying maps to show conflicting reports of a cow shed taken over for two years. It’s his schtick. At first his pro ukie bias showed but he seems to have toned that down to keep credibility. Either way I don’t watch him,
Can we all just agree SMO is a mixture of manoeuvre, positional , attrition, and whatever else can be described, like taking out strategic infrastucture behind lines, Defensive lines don’t exactly fit manoeuvre, trenches at one point swapped sides daily.

Posted by: Hankster | May 9 2024 0:28 utc | 96

Posted by: john brewster | May 9 2024 0:22 utc | 93
507. And, again, we’re all still here. And there are two very nice cities in Japan if you need ideas for a rest cure.
Henceforth, do your own searching. There aren’t enough soap box ranters here already …?

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | May 9 2024 0:30 utc | 97

…Not sure who calls themselves communists, but I would bet you’re wrong about Das Kapital. I can think of a few regulars that I’m pretty sure have read and understood it.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 8 2024 20:35 utc | 57
Please let them come forward and claim it!

Posted by: Nasir | May 9 2024 0:41 utc | 98

“…das Kapital, the Communist Manifesto, Mein Kampf.
Boring, long-winded books of conjecture and non sequiturs.
I admire anyone who has read these tomes, but I admire more anyone who truly believes they understood the authors.
Posted by: kupkee | May 8 2024 22:40 utc | 82”
First, honest post of the day! Hats off to you!

Posted by: Nasir | May 9 2024 0:43 utc | 99

Posted by: Rhymerez | May 8 2024 19:46 utc | 46
First, let me thank you for quoting the literature. I have not followed the details because I figure this kind of argument is moot if the balloon goes up. That is, who cares who was right when every major city has been nuked?
That said, the historical facts of Krakatoa and the Volcanic Winter of 536 show that such an effect is possible and has been observed several times in recorded history.
You cited:

Kuwaiti oil fires—Modeling revisited
T Husain
Atmospheric Environment, 1994•Elsevier
Abstract
Just after the invasion of Kuwait, scientists began predictions on the environmental disaster…
Elsevier
Show more
Save Cite Cited by 6 Related articles All 5 versions

This is the best article you could quote? It was cited precisely six times since it was written. It is written by some academic in Saudi Arabia. This is not some major rebuttal. Also, Wikipedia says the impact factor of “Atmospheric Environment” is 4.1. Again, not great.
Every untestable hypothesis (need a major nuclear war to test it) is a playpen for all kinds of people with all kinds of agendas to spout their stuff, based on incomplete or non-existent data. We could quote opponents and proponents for a while, or just agree to disagree about a hypothetical.
Me, I have said my piece.

Posted by: john brewster | May 9 2024 0:46 utc | 100