Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 5, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-129

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

⚡️⚡️⚡️ #Инсайд
Our source in the OP said that the West actively lobbied Budanov for the position of Commander-in-Chief, and is now promoting him to the post of Minister of Defense, but Andrei Ermak is against it. Bankova understands that the Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate is too public a figure and will draw attention from the President to himself.
“>https://t.me/rezident_ua/22726

I shouldn’t read too much from this post but it points to a preference for ‘terrorist’ and guerrila tactics by Blinken (the West). Budanov is the alledged mastermind of the attacks on civiluans on the territory of Russia, including the Krokus massacre of young Russians. The White House prioritizes PR and political effects in the US over Ukrainian military achievements. The Ukrainians die at a rate of 1000 day for PR that benefits Biden and Zelensky and wifhout any realistic endgame in sight.

Posted by: Richard L | May 7 2024 0:42 utc | 301

Roger | May 6 2024 16:09 utc | 229
Ugledar also seems well-fortified, and the Pokrowsk and Slavyansk agglomerations as next def. line.
Apart from that, fully agree.
—-
I would also suspect that some in the Ukrainian professional officer class are helping the Russians rid their armed forces of the neo-Nazi element. Which might be a reason some Azov battalions have become so battle shy recently, due to fragging or perhaps deliberate blue on blue droning.
Milites | May 6 2024 18:43 utc | 251
Good point, I do hope so – though this hasn’t materialized much, so far. Syrsky’s appointment may have changed the way AFU command sees the Nazi units.
Reminds me of Stauffenberg, who had no problem with the Nazis as long as Germany was on winning street.
—-
Where are the leaflet instructions as to what to do in a nuclear attack? Where is the discussion in western press?
HERMIUS | May 6 2024 22:05 utc | 285
Don’t worry, we can just re-watch ‘When the Wind Blows’. (very good film btw)
But seriously, there is no “defence against nuclear attack”. What’s the point of underground shelters, when there’s nowhere left to return to?

Posted by: smuks | May 7 2024 0:47 utc | 302

Those NATO exercises have been ongoing since January, and are scheduled to end in three weeks. At which time the assets in place will be returned to their proper bases. It’s all a big bluff, and it hasn’t deterred the Russians on the front.
James M. | May 6 2024 23:57 utc | 295
While I also expect assets to return ‘home’ after the exercise ends, there’s always the other option: Move stuff a little further east, and it’s in Ukraine. “Only in western Ukraine”, of course…
If there’s a serious breakthrough/ collapse of AFU front lines, there’ll be huge media pressure on NATO states’ governments to send troops to free up AFU (border etc.) units for the war zone.
That’s why I expect Russia to wait with any major offensive until ‘Steadfast Defender’ ends.

Posted by: smuks | May 7 2024 0:58 utc | 303

The Brits have been working hard at drawing the US into direct conflict with Russia since the first Ukrainian army was destroyed.
The Brit deep state/city of London or whatever obviously works closely with the globalist faction of the US deep state. In the US, Trump who wants to dump the war against Russia to Attack China now threatened with jail time – wars revolve around US election cycles and virtually all post WWII wars involve the US…

Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 20:51 utc | 278
The old question of ‘who’s the dog & who’s the tail’.
I agree that London has it’s own strategists & think tanks, and influence in DC. Maybe the question doesn’t even matter, because both represent the same interests – those of Dollar- & Pound-based global capital. One difference I see, though, is that London is at risk of becoming irrelevant post-Brexit. Which is probably the reason why it seems more invested/ “in the driver’s seat” regarding Ukraine.
It was the UK that forced Kiev to escalate the war on Donbas, or blew up NS. And it was usually the first to send new types of weapons. Maybe the fact that it had a weak, incompetent idiot PM in 2022 helped, as he was easily manipulated/ blackmailed. In any case, he was just the figurehead, not really ‘in power’.
I fear the same could happen with Trump. He may walk away from Ukraine & dump it on EUropeans, but would he withstand attempts to escalate vis-a-vis China? If a major war “breaks out”, and it cannot be convincingly blamed on China, he’s the ideal fall guy: “See, we always told you he’s unpredictable!”.

Posted by: smuks | May 7 2024 1:20 utc | 304

@Posted by: smuks | May 7 2024 1:20 utc | 305
Trump is a full on Zionist supporter and China-hater. The only reason he wants to pull out of Ukraine is that he sees it as a losing business deal and wants to focus on what he sees as the big fish – China. Lets remember he also murdered Soleimani, so he is also very anti-Iran and has no problem with killing people. I can see him trying to do “deals” then getting frustrated when no one will play on his terms, and yes too easily manipulated.

Posted by: Roger | May 7 2024 1:37 utc | 305

“The Canadian elites have the same type of relationship with the US, a dogged ally that is treated with utter disdain. The Canadian’s are also useful at the dark arts, quite the opposite of their carefully manufactured “nice” reputation. They had no problem torturing young boy in Somalia, or overthrowing the elected Prime Minister of Haiti, for instance. Same with the Aussies.”
Posted by: Roger | May 6 2024 21:55 utc | 284
Your anecdotal accusations says nothing about ‘Canadians are also useful at the dark arts” other than that sporadic inference.
Kindly please elaborate a constant theme that illustrates your point.

Posted by: canuck | May 7 2024 1:44 utc | 306

Re: Posted by: ossi | May 6 2024 18:12 utc | 241

After Great Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron spoke out in favor of deploying British long-range missiles into Russian territory, his country’s ambassador was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry today. There Nigel Casey received an unmistakable warning.
.
Moscow will retaliate against British targets in Ukraine or elsewhere if Kiev uses UK-supplied missiles to hit Russian territory. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced this to the British ambassador in Moscow on Monday.
.
Ambassador Nigel Casey was summoned to the ministry after British Foreign Secretary David Cameron told Reuters that Ukraine had the right to use long-range missiles supplied by Britain to attack targets deep in Russia.
.
“Casey was warned that the response to Ukrainian attacks with British weapons on Russian territory could affect all British military installations and equipment on the territory of Ukraine and also worldwide,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement after the meeting.

Empty words from Russia.
UK Storm Shadow missiles have already been used to strike Russian infrastructure in multiple occasions.
The Russian response has been non-existent.
UK assets were deployed to hit Crocus City Hall and murder scores of Russians.
The Russian response? Non-existent.
These are empty and hollow words from Russia and if MORE Storm Shadows are deployed to hit Russian infrastructure these words will be revealed as hollow as Russia does nothing in response – just like they have so far.
The Russians do not show “restraint” by doing nothing – they show weakness.
It is a common mistake to make.

Posted by: Julian | May 7 2024 1:58 utc | 307

@Posted by: canuck | May 7 2024 1:44 utc | 307
Go educate yourself, the Black Book of Canadian Foreign Policy by Yves Englar would be a good start. Also the fact that Toronto is the largest stock market for resource extraction firms which have been involved in so many acts of violence, destruction and the supporting of extremely brutal regimes. More recently, the Canadian government’s full on support for the Honduras coup leaders in 2009, the Lima Group and the overall support for the overthrow of the Venezuelan government, the kidnapping of Meng Wanzhou, the continuing actions to forestall democracy in Haiti, the “state building” and military training in Ukraine. It goes on and on and on ….
And some details on Venezuela How Chrystia Freeland Organized Donald Trump’s Coup in Venezuela

Posted by: Roger | May 7 2024 2:18 utc | 308

That is the goal, to drain the bath tube and that is going well, but what happens when you are half way through and some dick comes along and starts pouring in a bucket or two for every bucket you bail out? You get very angry. That’s where we are at now.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2024 19:43 utc | 262
The buckets are troops, and there is no replacement. The ukronazi professional army is gone. And the west is bluffing. They are cowards. They are panicking. Lies are all over the place in western countries. Propaganda, it is all what is left.

Posted by: Naive | May 7 2024 3:03 utc | 309

Posted by: Julian | May 7 2024 1:58 utc | 308
A second rate bankrupted country, supplying non-fighting chicken Challenger tanks, hiding behind Ukraine, specialized in lowballing tricks, will sooner or later to be degraded into third rate ravaged country.
It is not “not doing it”, it is just not time yet. The Japanese realized that long time ago.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | May 7 2024 3:24 utc | 310

re: ossi | May 6 2024 18:17 utc | 243
Do you have a link for the statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding the F-16s?
thanks

Posted by: Perimetr | May 7 2024 3:47 utc | 311

“argumentum ad hominem is only a logical fallacy to morons” – Jake “the Aussie genius” Blanchard

Posted by: Sparkles Blanchard | May 7 2024 4:03 utc | 312

Posted by: canuck ChatGPT | May 7 2024 1:44 utc | 307
Why don’t you – for a change – give up your whiny bitchy worthless attacks on other posters and just engage honestly and in good faith?
[Understands addressing a bot] It might be better for you and the site in the near- and short-term. And you’ll develop a soul.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2024 4:03 utc | 313

LOL canuck ChatGPT defends the Candian elite. LMAO
Schizophrenia.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 7 2024 4:07 utc | 314

argumentum ad hominem is only a logical fallacy to morons” – Jake “the Aussie genius” Blanchard
Posted by: Sparkles Blanchard | May 7 2024 4:03 utc | 313
Nah, you’ve got it a bit mixed up:
“Morons who can’t see their own logical fallacies, even after having them pointed out by others, deserve a bit of ad hominem”.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 7 2024 4:23 utc | 315

Resident
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Insider information
Our source in the OP said that the new Patriot systems will be delivered to Ukraine to protect military airfields where the F-16s will be based. All personnel for the maintenance of fighter jets and air defense will be made up of NATO instructors, who should set up the entire process.

F-16s are nuclear capable. Though older than the Ukraine soviet era aircraft, they can carry the full range of Nato munitions.
The talk cumming recently from Europe, about not being afraid of nuclear war, some French official saying Russia wont strike France or French forces as France has nukes.
All this stuff is adding up and so now we see Russia doing tactical nuke exercises – and this wont be based on what they see in the media but what Russian intel turns up.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 7 2024 4:45 utc | 316

In the midst of this brewing international crisis the German ambassador has been called away from his post. I don’t think their absence will help or hurt anyone.

Posted by: a stone | May 7 2024 5:02 utc | 317

“When I call someone who disagrees with me a moron, I am totally justified because I am a bloviating genius like my heroes Ritter, MacGregor and Matyanov” – Jake “not bragging, but I am often referred to as the Aussie Jethro Bodine” Blanchard

Posted by: Sparkles Blanchard | May 7 2024 5:08 utc | 318

A question – Is the Russian ultimatum featured prominently or talked down in the press?

Posted by: Passerby | May 7 2024 5:22 utc | 319

@106 ” Looks like the rats, Blackrock and Pimco, are leaving the sinking Ukrainian ship-they want Ukraine to begin repaying their debt with interest after a 2 year suspension”
Dovetails nicely with the arrival of congressional funds. Whatever survives MIC recycling and assorted corruption

Posted by: Yarpos | May 7 2024 5:32 utc | 320

Posted by: retroflecks | May 6 2024 5:38 utc | 158 150
The guy in front then says, “Русские муджахиды лучше кричат “Аллаху Акбар!”, чем мусульмане.”
=
“Russian mujahideen shout ‘Allahu Akbar!’ better than Muslims.”
Alaudinov did not say Русские муджахиды… (Russian mujahedeen)
He said: Вот у меня русские ребята… (My Russian boys…)
How did you hear mujahedeen only God knows.
Posted by: hopehely | May 6 2024 7:50 utc | 165

@hopehely
I was using the text-caption under the video.
If we go with your hearing:
“вот у меня русские ребята … лучше кричат “Аллаху Акбар!”, чем мусульмане.”
=
“Here (I have)→my Russian guys shout Allahu Akbar better than muslims.”
The point remains, these are ethnic Russians, who happen not to be muslim.
Please explain why you believe that drinking with them would be a problem?

Posted by: retroflecks | May 7 2024 5:36 utc | 321

Posted by: hopehely | May 6 2024 18:48 utc | 253
My mistake. I tried to read the Cirillic script and failed.

Posted by: RB | May 7 2024 5:57 utc | 322

Ukrainian population is mainly against Russia.
Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 19:55 utc | 265
Nonsense. In 2014:
40% speaking Russian at home, 40% speaking Surzhyk at home, 20% speaking Ukrainian at home.
Close to 80% speaking Russian in everyday business. They elected Yanukhovitch twice. And they are all against Russia? Maybe half.

Posted by: RB | May 7 2024 6:20 utc | 323

Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 20:35 utc | 274
Russia cannot attack NATO countries without going nuclear.
Today’s open Russian warning to UK means just that.
—————————
Why would you think so? Russians imply that it might lead to a nuclear war, but I don’t believe they would attack using nuclear weapons.

Posted by: RB | May 7 2024 6:29 utc | 324

Putting Cokeman on a wanted list – I’m wondering if Russia is planning something to pre-empt the UK attack on the Kerch bridge.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 19:58 utc | 65
Good point. Perhaps its a veiled threat. “You blow that bridge and we’re gonna target you Z”
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 5 2024 20:06 utc | 66
US? reporting Kerch Bridge no longer used for military transport (two months now) so no longer a worthwhile target.
It’s hard to know if they report this thinking the Russians might relax about it, or they don’t believe they can take it out.

Posted by: Ink | May 7 2024 6:33 utc | 325

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report #Summary for the Morning of 7 May 2024; pub. 06:52📍
⚓️Last night, against the background of info from the media citing sources in the security services about #Ukraine’s preparation of a combined strike on #Crimea, monitoring resources reported the activity of enemy targets in the airspace around the peninsula, and the Crimean bridge was closed to traffic. During the analysis of yesterday’s attack by enemy drone boats on our boat base near #Chernomorskoye, it was found that the enemy used surface drones with missile weapons designed to hit air targets.
🔹In the #Kherson region, battle operations in the #Krynki area and on the #Dnieper floodplain islands, where our problem is still insufficient equipment with small watercraft. Front-line soldiers from the field report finding solutions by repairing old boats abandoned by local residents.
🔹On the #Zaporozhye front, the RFAF are conducting assaults in #Rabotino and northwest of #Verbovoye. It is reported about daring assault actions of our fighters on motorised vehicles, as a result of which another enemy stronghold was occupied.
🔹On the #Vremyevka ledge, fights in #Urozhaynoye and at #Staromayorskoye.
🔹In the #SouthDonetsk direction, battles continue in #Krasnogorovka. The RFAF are using 2S4 “Tulpan” mortar SAUs of 240 mm calibre.
🔹On #ChasovYar’s eastern outskirts, heavy fighting continues. Our aviation is active.
🔹In the #Kupyansk sector, the RFAF are expanding the bridgehead around #Kislovka and #Kotlyarovka, which were taken the other day.
💥The #Belgorod region was subjected to heavy shelling yesterday. As a result of kamikaze drone strikes on a bus and a car near the village of #Beryozovka, Borisov district, 7 people were killed and 34 injured. Another hit on a car in the same area wounded a civilian’s leg. In #Shebekino, a woman was injured by a UAV detonation. In #Nikolskoye, Belgorod district, a civilian was killed as a result of an AFU strike by the Vampire MLRS. An 8-year-old girl was wounded by shrapnel. In the evening, a drone struck a moving car near #Shchetinovka, injuring the driver.
💥In the #Kursk region, the checkpoints “Sudzha” and “Tyotkino”, the villages of #Guyevo, #Gornal, and #Oleshnya in the Sudzhansky district, the villages of #Tyotkino, Novy Put, #Krovyakovka, #Yelizavetovka, and #Byrdin in the Glushkovsky district, and the village of #Gordeyevka in the Korenevsky district were shelled. Near #Tyotkino, in #Sudzha, in the vicinity of #Gordeyevka, copters dropped explosive devices.
🛡Drones were suppressed by EW means near the village of #Ulanok, Sudzhansky district, the village of #Yelizavetovka, the Zarya farm and the village of #Tyotkino, Glushkovsky district, and the village of #Gordeyevka, . Another one was shot down near the #Sudzha checkpoint.
💥In #Donetsk (#DPR), a civilian was injured as a result of an explosive device being dropped from a copter.
🎬#Kherson direction – Razvedka_26St reports

https://t.me/two_majors/23555

Posted by: Down South | May 7 2024 6:41 utc | 326

At this point in time, in order to shorten the war and minimize the number of deaths, the most logical course of action for Russia would , after coordinating with China, to take a NATO country, any NATO country, and beat to such a degree it so that other NATO countries wisely decide it is better to cease and desist.

Posted by: Passerby | May 7 2024 6:50 utc | 327

RT misc
Russian President-elect Vladimir Putin is set to take the oath of office at a ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow on Tuesday, after securing his fifth term in the highest office with a record 87.28% of the vote in March.
Message to the West: What’s behind Russia’s tactical nuclear drills
Moscow’s response comes after escalatory statements by US allies about the Ukraine conflict
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered a snap exercise in the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the Southern Military District, which borders Ukraine.
The purpose of the drills is to iron out “the practical aspects of the preparation and deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons,” as well as to strengthen the readiness of both equipment and personnel, “in order to ensure the integrity and sovereignty of Russia,” the Russian Defense Ministry said on Monday.
The exercises will take place in the Southern Military District, which directly borders Ukraine. Headquartered in Rostov-on-Don, it is the smallest of Russia’s military districts, and includes Crimea, the Caucasus, the regions of Rostov, Volgograd and Krasnodar, as well as the recently admitted Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions.
Russia’s tactical nuclear arsenal
Warheads with yields measured in kilotons of TNT – such as the weapons used by the US against the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 – are now considered tactical nuclear weapons.
Message to the West
The tactical nuclear drills are taking place “in the context of recent belligerent statements by Western officials and sharply destabilizing actions taken by a number of NATO countries” in connection with the Ukraine conflict, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Monday.
The US-led bloc’s policy of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia is leading it towards “a further escalation of the Ukraine crisis towards an open military clash” between NATO and Moscow, the ministry added.
Russia views nuclear weapons “solely as a means of deterrence” and considers their use “an extreme and forced measure,” the decree specified.
The doctrine outlines the conditions under which the Russian president would be justified in authorizing the use of atomic weapons. Of particular importance is Section 17, which spells out that Russia “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the existence of the state itself is at risk.”
Russia to hold nuclear drills to ‘cool hot heads’ in West – Foreign Ministry
Russia’s upcoming exercises to test its tactical nuclear weapons should be viewed in light of the “belligerent statements” made by some Western officials and NATO’s “destabilizing actions,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday.
According to the Foreign Ministry, the move was a response to the continued “power politics” pursued by the US and its allies against Russia. Washington and Kiev’s other backers openly declare their support for Ukrainian “terrorist acts” and “directly contribute” to such attacks, the statement read, pointing to the continued supply of ever more powerful Western weapons to Ukraine. It particularly drew attention to the US-made ATACMS missiles capable of “striking targets deep inside Russian territory.”
Last week, former UK prime minister and current Foreign Secretary David Cameron stated that Kiev had every right to use British weapons to strike targets inside Russia as well.
The US has also created new threats to Russia’s national security through deployment of its intermediate-range ground-based missile systems around the world, the ministry said. Such weapons were banned under the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), but Washington unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2019.
The move left Russia with no choice but to leave the treaty as well.
|
….. I don’t think they’re bluffing. They’re preparing for what’s coming. Same as what was going down during 2021 …. and January-February 2022

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 7 2024 6:52 utc | 328

Conscript enforcers in Ukraine drive around and taunt people with invitations to a health resort in Lyman, resort in Kupyansk and tickets to Kleschevka and Chasov Yar.
https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1787736993683927389

Posted by: unimperator | May 7 2024 7:00 utc | 329

RE The NUKE exercises will take place in the Southern Military District, which directly borders Ukraine. Headquartered in Rostov-on-Don, it is the smallest of Russia’s military districts, and includes Crimea, the Caucasus, the regions of Rostov, Volgograd and Krasnodar, as well as the recently admitted Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions.
——————
Very close nearby NATO/US forces bases – Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, Romania, (Moldova, Ukraine,) Poland, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Slovenia …. Baltic States

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 7 2024 7:01 utc | 330

RT –
Moscow will retaliate against British targets in Ukraine or elsewhere if Kiev uses UK-provided missiles to strike Russian territory, the Foreign Ministry told London’s ambassador on Monday.
Ambassador Nigel Casey was summoned to the ministry following remarks by British Foreign Secretary David Cameron to Reuters that Ukraine has the right to use long-range missiles sent by the UK to strike deep inside Russia.
”Casey was warned that the response to Ukrainian strikes using British weapons on Russian territory could be any British military facilities and equipment on the territory of Ukraine and beyond,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement following the meeting.
The US and its allies had previously qualified their deliveries of long-range weapons to Kiev by saying they could only be used on territories that Ukraine claims as its own – Crimea, the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, and Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions.
According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Cameron’s statements to the contrary “de facto recognized his country as a party to the conflict.”
Russia understands Cameron’s comments as “evidence of a serious escalation and confirmation of London’s increasing involvement in military operations on the side of Kiev,” the ministry added.
Casey was urged to “think about the inevitable catastrophic consequences of such hostile steps from London and to immediately refute in the most decisive and unequivocal manner the bellicose provocative statements of the head of the Foreign Office.”
Earlier in the day, the Russian Defense Ministry announced an exercise to test the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. President Vladimir Putin ordered the drills after “provocative statements and threats” by Western officials, the military said.
Moscow hopes the drills will “cool down the ‘hot heads’ in Western capitals and help them understand the possible catastrophic consequences of the strategic risks they generate,” as well as “keep them from both assisting the Kiev regime in its terrorist actions and being drawn into a direct armed confrontation with Russia,” the Foreign Ministry said in a follow-up statement.
French Ambassador Pierre Levy was also summoned to the Foreign Ministry. Moscow has not yet disclosed the details of the meeting.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 7 2024 7:04 utc | 331

RT – And Medvedev adds his piece for the hard of hearing
Western leaders are ‘infantile morons’ – Medvedev
The US and its allies need a reminder of the nuclear risk posed by the Ukraine conflict, Dmitry Medvedev believes

The US, the UK, France and other Western nations should take a Russian nuclear drill as a reminder of where escalation of the Ukraine conflict could take them, former President Dmitry Medvedev has said.
On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry announced an imminent exercise to test the capability to deploy non-strategic nuclear weapons. It said the training was ordered by President Vladimir Putin after “provocative statements and threats” by Western officials.
Medvedev, who serves as deputy head of the Russian Security Council, referred to debates in the West about possible deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine, as well as “active encouragement [of Kiev] to use [Western] missile weapons against the entire Russian territory” as grounds for the drill.
Russia “will have to respond” to the proposed deployment of Western soldiers, “and this response will not be” in Ukraine, the Russian official warned. In that case “there will be no hiding on Capitol Hill, in the Elysee Palace or at 10 Downing Street.”
The situation is comparable to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, according to Medvedev. He said current Western elites were “infantile morons” who refuse to see the risk, unlike US President John F. Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, who managed to walk back the escalation six decades ago.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 7 2024 7:09 utc | 332

If there’s a serious breakthrough/ collapse of AFU front lines, there’ll be huge media pressure on NATO states’ governments to send troops to free up AFU (border etc.) units for the war zone.
That’s why I expect Russia to wait with any major offensive until ‘Steadfast Defender’ ends.
Posted by: smuks | May 7 2024 0:58 utc | 304
I agree that the Russians will wait on any major offensive, if there is one planned, until next month. But I think this delay will be due to waiting for more favorable weather, rather than for NATO assets to be pulled back. Although, that could be a factor as well. We’ll have to wait and see on the NATO exercises.

Posted by: James M. | May 7 2024 7:38 utc | 333

#333
RT:
“Medvedev adds his piece for the hard of hearing. Western leaders are infantile morons”, he says.
Naughty, naughty Mr Medvedev. His ad hominems would not be welcome here at MoA. 😉 .;) 😉 Because everyone here always listens so carefully to the others … /sarc.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 7 2024 7:52 utc | 334

The infantile morons are in Kremlin. These morons are decimating Russian youth in a costly proxy war and lost all of its leverages over Western Europe, turning Russia into Beijing’s vassal in the process. They wouldn’t really seem to care, tho, as their children live in United States, France and United Kingdom.

Posted by: Myca | May 7 2024 8:34 utc | 335

The Russians do not show “restraint” by doing nothing – they show weakness.
Nonsense. They’re playing the long game. It’s the West that is acting on emotion.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 7 2024 8:52 utc | 336

The long game in killing its own population ? Russia’s birth rate is low as fuck.

Posted by: Myca | May 7 2024 8:56 utc | 337

It does seem that the people who are most enthusiastic about Russia launching risky large-scale invasions or launching attacks on Western European countries which would invite counterattacks are people who a) have little regard for the truth, and b) seem to have an agenda which in all other respects is curiously identical to the agenda of NATO.
I can scarcely imagine how that could be. It must be a very curious coincidence.

Posted by: MFB | May 7 2024 9:00 utc | 338

F-16s are nuclear capable.
They’re capable of dropping the old gravity bomb, and there’s NWIH an F-16 gets anywhere close to where they’d need to be to drop one. As it stands they don’t have the combat range to even approach the front. The only possible use would be standoff launch of long range Storm Shadows or Scalps and even that is a stretch.
Russians calling out that capability are essentially declaring that any F-16’s appearing anywhere over Ukraine — and they’re bases wherever they may be — will be dealt with in short order.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 7 2024 9:05 utc | 339

Myca | May 7 2024 8:56 utc | 338
You forgot to introduce yourself on your first apearance. I think the site you wanted is http://www.morons-anonymous.com Go there with your friend Jake Blanchard.

Posted by: Sparkles Blanchard | May 7 2024 9:31 utc | 340

#rumors
Our source reports that every day from 100 to 400 Ukrainians are crossing the Tisa River, fleeing mobilization and chaos in the country.
It is impossible to close all areas near Tisa. As well as closing the entire border.
Therefore, the authorities ordered the publication of terrible news that people were drowning while trying to swim across the Tisa or were being attacked by wolves. We insided about this on April 10 after Ze’s bet.
Such news should stop the influx of people wishing to escape from North Korea to Ukraine. Since about a million men have already fled/left/swam from Ukraine during these 804 days of war.
Now the heat is coming and people will run even faster.

Posted by: unimperator | May 7 2024 9:36 utc | 341

342 – Is that the same river the Hungarians spell as Tisza?

Posted by: Waldorf | May 7 2024 10:05 utc | 342

342 – Is that the same river the Hungarians spell as Tisza?
Posted by: Waldorf | May 7 2024 10:05 utc | 343

Looks like it https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza
AFAIK Hungarian ‘sz’ is pronounced ‘s’

Posted by: pessoa | May 7 2024 10:17 utc | 343

So the Sledgehammers (Tulpan) 2S4 240mm mortars are now in use at the front.
These RF very heavy arty pieces are basically siege reduction rounds designed to destroy hardened concrete emplacements like at Chasiv Yar……
Was wondering how long it would take the RF to deploy these arty pieces, which are the equivalent of ten inch naval gun. They are also tactical nuclear capable.
UFA has nothing to counter these weapons, neither does NATO.
Time for peace talks…..are you listening in London and DC?

Posted by: Tobias Cole | May 7 2024 10:46 utc | 344

Posted by: Myca | May 7 2024 8:34 utc | 336
An update from the ‘score keeper’
It’s 575,000 Ukrainians killed and over a million wounded.
50,000 Russians killed and over 100,000 wounded. I may be adding Donbas civilians shelled by weapons supplied by western governments to the Kiev junta.
All a tragic waste of life. Mainly due to western belligerence. You are cheerleading it.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | May 7 2024 11:00 utc | 345

“The infantile morons are in Kremlin. These morons are decimating Russian youth in a costly proxy war and lost all of its leverages over Western Europe, turning Russia into Beijing’s vassal in the process. They wouldn’t really seem to care, tho, as their children live in United States, France and United Kingdom.”
Posted by: Myca | May 7 2024 8:34 utc | 336
You are either a troll or an uneducated schlepper-either way, your post is not credible.

Posted by: canuck | May 7 2024 11:10 utc | 346

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 7 2024 4:23 utc | 316
Rejected Jake Blanchard
In high school halls where friendships abide,
Jake Blanchard, known for his wit and guile,
Yet love’s pursuit did oftentimes deride,
While intellect his peers would oft beguile.
One day, in hopes of winning love’s embrace,
He faced rejection in the schoolyard’s space,
A brute, with force, did Jake’s ambitions maim,
While laughter cruelly marked love’s cruel game.
The maiden fair, by folly’s sway enticed,
Forswore Jake’s plight, in favor of the fight,
Thus Jake, by sorrow’s grip so tightly sliced,
Retreated deep into the darkest night.
Through pixels typed, he finds a solace frail,
In online wars, where venom’s tongue prevails,
Yet ‘neath the mask of words, a heart does ail,
In need of love’s embrace, where kindness sails.
Therapy’s touch or love’s gentle hand,
Could mend the wounds of this embittered man.

Posted by: canuck | May 7 2024 11:23 utc | 347

An update from the ‘score keeper’
It’s 575,000 Ukrainians killed and over a million wounded.
50,000 Russians killed and over 100,000 wounded. I may be adding Donbas civilians shelled by weapons supplied by western governments to the Kiev junta.
All a tragic waste of life. Mainly due to western belligerence. You are cheerleading it.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | May 7 2024 11:00 utc | 346
Care to share origin and methodology?
575.000 AFU KIA is within my estimates (530-650 thousand)
But RF I’d be hard pressed to say lower than 85 thousand by now.

Posted by: Newbie | May 7 2024 13:43 utc | 348

Is that still the Walmart ChatGPT you’re using to write poetry, canuck?

Posted by: persiflo | May 7 2024 14:43 utc | 349

Posted by: Newbie | May 7 2024 13:43 utc | 349
Seems I made a huge under-estimate.
Many people, particularly the deluded western media reading Ukraine cheerleaders presumably don’t subscribe to the BBC research which trailed around cemeteries, read obituaries in newspapers or calculate who is no longer having a daily milk delivery to allow these stenographers to come up with a nice round 50,000 alleged Russian deaths. These brainwashed Ukrainian flag wavers believe that millions of ‘Orcs’ (racist de-humanisation helps them justify the killing of these sub-humans in a similar way the Nazis did) have been killed and the billions spent is the best investment they ever made. Like I said they’re deluded.
For Ukrainian deaths you can read the sober daily reports of the Russian Ministry of Defence*. Readers here are very familiar with this source thanks to down south and unimperator.
A random daily report Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (xx April 2024)
995 UAF killed
*if you consider the Russian MoD an unreliable source due to your own biases, deduct 25% from the total. So 750 Ukrainian Armed Forces deaths per day.
807 days of conflict at 750 deaths per day produces a conservative estimate of 605,250 Ukrainian Armed Forces deaths since 20th February 2024.
People who understand and have experienced war have posted here that injuries are normally twice the number of deaths, so well over 1 million injured. Some recoverable some permanently disabled, deaf, blind, maimed, paralysed, all traumatised.
It’s disgusting that people are still cheerleading this on. Of course it’s orchestrated by the same diabolical clique that are standing steadfast with the genocidal Israeli government who continue to commit war crimes in occupied Palestine as they thrash around to try and save their apartheid project.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | May 7 2024 18:16 utc | 350

Naughty, naughty Mr Medvedev. His ad hominems would not be welcome here at MoA. 😉 .;) 😉 Because everyone here always listens so carefully to the others … /sarc.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 7 2024 7:52 utc | 335
A rare civil post. Thank you. It even contains elements of humor, albeit mean spirited.
As to your apparent belief that people fail to understand what you meant to say in your posts, I offer a probable misquote of a professor from last century: “The effectiveness of a communication is measured by the understanding of the communicatee.”
When someone did not correctly understand what you intended to communicate, it might be more effective to restate the point more clearly, than to yell and swear at them. Your tantrums are becoming tedious.
If you go back to the children’s table, I’ll send over one of those Shirley Temple drinks you like; one with the little parasol in it.

Posted by: Samu | May 7 2024 18:52 utc | 351

“choose your own adventure”
If you don’t believe it, read:
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240507/ukraines-tragicomic-recruitment-strategy-mocked-as-choose-your-own-adventure-scheme-1118320139.html

Posted by: Elber | May 7 2024 21:16 utc | 352

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | May 7 2024 18:16 utc | 351
Yes, I mentioned that AFU KIA was (for me ) within my estimate44
your “conservative estimate of 605,250 Ukrainian Armed Forces deaths since 20th February 2024.” is with high recent levels.
Ukraine says little to nothing so i have to say (530-650 thousand) as a minimum for the needs announced
And yes, I agree that the BBC probate hypes by 500-1000 recently
I prefer using global excess mortality, with an added 1.200 per month, and 1.56 X the “classic” mediazone identified KIA for RF, it was good when I calibrated for a first probate record analysis still in 2022, early 2023, and seems to hold true.
Just asked your source as I share mine.
Tangential analysis… also used AFU amputees at a given moment almost a year ago.
I don’t particularly like the mushroom scenario when we’re given crap and kept in the dark.
BTW, AFU WIA (beyond further usage is certainly no bigger than the KIA , long term incapacitated vs kia, and might be less than 1/2 if they throw any semi-abled body back into the fight

Posted by: Newbie | May 7 2024 22:13 utc | 353

Posted by: Samu | May 7 2024 18:52 utc | 352
>>>A rare civil post. Thank you. It even contains elements of humor, albeit mean spirited.
I’m being fully civil in this reply, albeit honest and straight.
1, Polite posts by me are FAR from rare. You exagerate the narky quotient I’ve had with the few persistent idiots who get up my nose … but not just against me but also in their general attitude to others. I often contribute sincere posts and react civilly with many posters. Yes, there have been periods where my detractors have aimed false accusations and I have defended with insulting words. That’s VERY COMMON HERE.
2, I don’t see why stating a fact, sarcastically, is “mean-spirited”.
>>>As to your apparent belief that people fail to understand what you meant to say in your posts …
It is neither “apparent” nor did I say it was personal. Lol. You show your own bias and misreading of my 335 right there. It is FACT that many many people here skim read, shoot from the lip, self project adverse meanings, reply with strawmen, and endlessly talk past others. Merely because I take issue with these, either on my own behalf or on behalf of a poor argument in itself, should not cast me in a poor light.
>>>I offer a probable misquote of a professor from last century: “The effectiveness of a communication is measured by the understanding of the communicatee.”
(Did it really need to be a dead, probably white, “professor”? Your educational snobbery is showing. My grandma used to intimate the same thing.)
But yes and no. That is why I may (sometimes) be accused of using too many words. I am an editor, a bit of a semanticist. I have written 5 non-fiction books. In my *serious posts*, I strive for clarity, non-ambiguity, logic, unlike many others here. But beyond the good professor’s maxim (which was probably issued in a literary sense and far before social media) — there is no escaping people’s ability to misread/misinterpret ANYTHING when pre-existing psychological biases exist within the reader against the substance and/or the speaker. Is that not true? This is not The Oxford Union Debating Club. Besides, how can anyone argue against an intractable ideologue, even if they express their perspectives with the purest clarity. It then becomes advantageous to highlight the biased PSYCHE of the speaker, ie an ad hominem approach, because they are not communicating in good faith — ie, a search for truth through reason.
>>>When someone did not correctly understand what you intended to communicate, it might be more effective to restate the point more clearly, than to yell and swear at them. Your tantrums are becoming tedious.
Again you postulate that my point (or some other’s) was not clear. I have seen crystal clear meanings obviously misinterpreted through the filters of bigots.
For me, misunderstandings are small chips compared with (i) arogance and bigotry by condescending limelight-deprived, retired academic knowalls, and (ii) uninformed, thoughtless, troll-types. Everyone else, I believe acts in good faith … even when intoxicated!
>>>If you go back to the children’s table, I’ll send over one of those Shirley Temple drinks you like; one with the little parasol in it.
Your insult touches me not at all. Equating my outbursts with a child’s shows your pseudo child psychology. Never been a parent, I’d guess. A child throws a tantrum because their ego does not get what it wants. It is an unconscious, emotional power play. My adult umbrage arises from (i) the childish adults in here whose inflated ego attachment to their own intellectual righteousness needs (at least) mirroring or sometimes puncturing; or (ii) the childish, naive trolls who stumble into a public forum where most of the dialogue strives to more deeply examine issues of major geo-political importance. They trivialise war; swap facts for prejudices; think their naive opinions carry weight against the long timers. The former group (i) tries to treat this cyber “bar” like some professorial Institute Think Tank Forum, and the latter (ii) treat MoA like Twitter, Facebook and YouTube comment sections.
Nuff said.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 7 2024 23:30 utc | 354