Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 5, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-129

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

On a more pleasant note, kinda, but more adult serious and unpleasant, a different area altogether, have you seen Dimas latest which seems to suggest the Americans are surpassing themselves in total insanity. What credence do you give that? And do you not think it about time for the dumb ignorant western masses to wake up and speak up? Perhaps via modern technology to wit perhaps: dont-write-to-congress
Posted by: arthur brogard | May 6 2024 10:23 utc | 202
Yes, you are right. But I do not see the western masses can wake up. The new generations are smartphone conditioned, and cannot wake up. It is not that these masses are evil or even stupid, but human brain is just weak against the nice shiny, glittering screens in their hands. There is Hollywood, Kardashianism, there is enough distraction for them.

Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 11:55 utc | 201

Strategy of Russia is to make sure they are impredictible, while strategy in the Waste is to keep their population confused and scared.
They are both hugely successful.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | May 6 2024 12:02 utc | 202

The State Duma adopted a law banning foreign agents from participating in Russian elections.
Bad timing for Georgian lawmakers

Posted by: 2+2=5 | May 6 2024 12:05 utc | 203

“If you are reading this vargas, please explain who/what/where you are. You seem to have the IQ, memory, reading skills, comprehension skills of a gnat.”
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 7:33 utc | 171
Really, Jake.
How is this provocation adding to the discussion?
Your attack is but a projection of your own inferiority complex; I guess that pain gets slightly assuaged in your tortured soul when you commence ‘punching down’ on other posters.

Posted by: canuck | May 6 2024 12:12 utc | 204

@ unimperator, §213:
That´s my expectation too. 1939 borders with Galicia and Bessarabia as bargaining chips for Poland and Rumania to behave.
I don´t think Transcarpathia will opt for Hungary. I think they´d prefer to be an exclave (like Kaliningrad) of Russia.
The rest of the Ukraine itself will disappear, joining Russia. The six oblasts around Kiev may be allowed to vote for an autonomous republic within the RF, like the Tatars or the Chechens.

Posted by: John Marks | May 6 2024 12:38 utc | 205

This Sputnik report claimed first casualties of official French deployment of combat personal to buttress Ukie front lines.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240506/french-foreign-legion-possibly-racked-up-first-losses-in-ukraine—report-1118283980.html

Posted by: Surferket | May 6 2024 12:49 utc | 206

@ Babel-17, §136:
Yep, the new, rump YouCrane, whatever it´s called, (my bet is on ´Chornarus´, cf. Belarus) will simply disown the prior debts of the YouCrane and say it doesn´t inherit them.
If they´re lucky enough to be given a referendum by the Russians, six oblasts (Kiev, Zhitomir, Xmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Yelizavetgrad) may form the new Chornarus.

Posted by: John Marks | May 6 2024 13:02 utc | 207

Willy’s latest:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gvQkTDrEys
Not much change (few fields) on the map. Looking like another .01% month, not a .02% month.
Video is mostly concerned with discussion of how Western militaries are not configured for long duration war like Ukraine. The muh attrition crowd will love it.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 6 2024 13:02 utc | 208

The tiny percentage that really counts is the small % of Ukraine territory increased for graves, not what Russia conquers.
So, this (maybe) .000001% beats the .01% that apologists seem obsessed with.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 6 2024 13:37 utc | 209

@b
I suggest banning Jake Blanchard. He used to write interesting things but unnecessarily attacks other commenters in unnecessarily nasty ways. (At least one of his targets deserves it, maybe. But not one of the others.)
I read the comments backwards and this skip over his posts easily. But, he’s violating one of your simple and only requests.

Posted by: not b | May 6 2024 13:48 utc | 210

re: a stone | May 6 2024 9:44 utc | 198
you wrote:
“I think Russia can win the war they are currently fighting without triggering nuclear war. I’ve heard the arguments to the contrary but I don’t find them convincing.”
The question really is whether or not NATO will lose the war without using nuclear weapons.
If the damn fools in France, Poland, and/or Washington manage to put enough troops in Ukraine (or try to take Transnistria) and start using air support flying out of Romania and Poland, then Russia will take out the airbases along with NATO troops in theater. Will NATO admit defeat or try to use nukes to prevent defeat on the battlefield?

Posted by: Perimetr | May 6 2024 14:08 utc | 211

167
the main difference between Ukraine and Russia is that Russia sees this as existential against Nato and its intentions to make Ukraine a member … hence end of 2021 Putin’s proposal of negotiating a new European Security Architecture which Nato and EU did not even to reply to. Idiots .. that is another fine mess that they have got themselves into.

Posted by: Jo | May 6 2024 14:17 utc | 212

Your attack is but a projection of your own inferiority complex; I guess that pain gets slightly assuaged in your tortured soul when you commence ‘punching down’ on other posters.
Posted by: canuck | May 6 2024 12:12 utc | 218

Ah look at the tea pot calling the kettle names.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 6 2024 14:24 utc | 213

Posted by: Perimetr | May 6 2024 14:08 utc | 225
personally, i think nato cannot stop this without going nuclear in one way or another.
they have driven themself into a corner, their megalomania and selfrighteous hubris has made them think that they are untouchable.
i bet they think that russia will back down if they just push strong enough, not understanding that its exactly this push that drives russia in the first place.
they refuse to take accountability for the mess they created, and the only thing they see is “we are the good guys”, but they should ask themself the question “are we the bad guys, hans?”.
so if all their wunderwaffels fail, and that “strategic defeat of russia” is not accomplished by the way they are currently trying to achieve it, they will do something really really stupid.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 6 2024 14:24 utc | 214

https://t.me/intelslava/59170

🇷🇺🇬🇧🇫🇷 The ambassadors of Britain and France arrived at the Russian Foreign Ministry.
The British diplomat spent half an hour in the facility and left without speaking to the press.
Following him, the French ambassador arrived at the Russian Foreign Ministry.
The reasons for the visit are not reported. Moscow probably handed the British a note in response to Cameron’s statement about the possibility of using British weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation. And the French – to Macron’s statement about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine.
After these statements, we recall that the Russian Federation began exercises on the use of tactical nuclear weapons
Also today, the German government announced that it was recalling its ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Lambsdorff, to Berlin for consultations. Officially, due to a cyber attack on the email accounts of members of the German SPD party, which Germany blamed on Russian intelligence services.

https://t.me/intelslava/59172

🇫🇷🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️Paris did not send soldiers of the Foreign Legion to Ukraine – French Foreign Ministry

https://t.me/intelslava/59173

🇬🇧⚡Russia has officially threatened Britain with strikes on its territory in the event of Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory by British missiles.
“The response to Kiev’s attacks on the Russian Federation using British weapons could be attacks on military targets in Britain and outside Ukraine,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
The Foreign Office called on Britain to “think about the catastrophic consequences of London’s hostile steps and immediately refute Cameron’s statements.”
Let us remind you that Foreign Minister Cameron said that Ukraine can strike at the territory of the Russian Federation with weapons transferred from Britain.
Today the British Ambassador visited the Russian Foreign Ministry.

https://t.me/intelslava/59174

🇷🇺🇬🇧⚡The statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry about the possibility of strikes against Britain is the first public statement by the Russian Federation threatening strikes directly against a Western country.
Events are developing faster and faster. The escalation is getting stronger.

https://t.me/intelslava/59175

🇫🇷 Judging by the fact that immediately after the French ambassador left our Foreign Ministry, Macron’s Foreign Ministry officially announced that there were no French soldiers in Ukraine, I think that, like his British colleague, he was also puzzled by what he heard.
He also (like the Briton) did not give any comments. We are waiting for an official comment from our diplomats.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 6 2024 14:30 utc | 215

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 10:51 utc | 206

Wow. That explains a lot! I have been watching Dima since day 1, but only to see his specific confirmed after-the-fact events on the ground.

What kind of reports are you expecting out of a war zone? I’ve been trying to learn what happened in the Rezev salient in 1942 since the mid 1990’s however the Russians still classify that shit … yet you think some youtube vlogger is going to get you reports on battlefield movements 12 hours after it happens?? dream on.
Dima isn’t the all knowing god of war. He’s just an aggregator of reports from Ukrainian and Russian telegraph channels. Non Russian speakers watch his channel is because he scours the Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels and government news releases and aggregates them into 25 minute reports for those of us who don’t speak Russian or can’t spend all day on Telegram. Dima is one of the only windows into how this war is viewed from the Russian perspective. He’s in Belarus where Russian new agencies or military reports aren’t blocked by western governments.

But not one, not one, of his fantasy projections has ever come true. The guy is truly neurotic about superfluous details; he is clearly dyslexic — gets his teams mixed up; repeats endless meaningless phrases to pad out the video time; uses such fuzzy timeline estimates to cloud his vagaries; has no insight into Kremlin or Bankova thinking; attracts a teenage fanbase in the comments. No wonder you endorse him. You are just like him.

Learn to use information to do your own analysis instead of relying on someone like Dima to tell you what to think. I read the Russian MOD reports as well as reports in Western media … both are full of propaganda and don’t tell the whole story … or they’re not, who knows. Dima’s reports are from the perspective of a Russian listening to Russian social media … of course it’s full of gossip and false reports … just as you’d expect from a war. If you view things from enough angles you can usually get a better idea of what’s really going on than relying on a single source.
Second I’ll bet Dima does one hell of a better job communicating in English that you do in Russian.

Posted by: HB_Norica | May 6 2024 14:35 utc | 216

On a subject that I have tried to bring up earlier.
As the US tries to scare with “RF Nukes in LEO”, as explained it would “radiation poison” LEO.
But if there is a moment where that is unlikely is now, here are some sections of a text from a link I posted earlier…
“The U.S. military has long held a key advantage over China’s: it can hit mobile targets at extremely long distances. But that “monopoly is over,” the Space Force’s intel chief said Thursday.
China is building a massive architecture of remote-sensing satellites to help target U.S. forces if they move to defend Taiwan in a conflict, said Maj. Gen. Greg Gagnon, deputy chief of space operations for intelligence.
“It’s to provide indications and warnings of sailors, Marines, airmen, trying to move west, if directed, to defend freedom. They will now—in a way that we’re not comfortable talking about in America—they will be inside a rapidly expanding weapons engagement zone,” Gagnon said Thursday at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.
China has launched more than 400 satellites over the past two years, more than half of which are designed to track things on Earth, Gagnon said. ”
And if china is sharing, then RF is no longer constrained by the 4 hour lag of it’s meager Kanopus-V network.
Now what this does not preclude is a false flag for removing the ascending chinese IRS ability while blaming RF.

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2024 14:44 utc | 217

There is Hollywood, Kardashianism, there is enough distraction for them.
Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 11:55 utc | 202
Volks?

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2024 14:48 utc | 218

The REAL Attrition Strategy is the bleeding out of the U.S. Treasury- ….
Posted by: kupkee | May 5 2024 15:02 utc | 10
Ultimately, all that matters is the geostrategic location. If Russia installed a Russia-friendly government in Mexico and the US intervened, it would be an expensive war for Russia and a cheap one for the US that they cannot lose. But in Ukraine it is the other way around.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | May 6 2024 14:54 utc | 219

For those who haven’t figured it out yet, Jake Blanchard is just the latest re-incarnation of Richard S. Hack…

Posted by: Simpleton | May 6 2024 14:56 utc | 220

RE: Posted by: anon2020 | May 6 2024 14:30 utc | 216
Thx anon for those updates.
I’m passed the “rhetoric” and “theatre” now to seeing the jig is up. Russia gave US/UK/NATO 2 1/2 years to accept there will never be a “strategic” or otherwise “defeat” of Russia.
The Ukraine “proxy” war was win the second Russian officially put a boot in the ground. They’ve given the “West” 2 1/2 years to accept it and move on.
Their patience is finished. Surrender. All their “goals will be accomplished”= No negotiations.
The West can put lipstick on it anyway they want for their public consumption, but Ukraine, in full, is Russia’s. Whether it’s all the way occupied or partially occupied, it’s Russia’s.
The June “peace plan”, which is no more than another international meet for Zelensky to pass a hat around for the last dregs of extortion before he exits, is an obvious to anybody, sham.
Anyways, thx for you work.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 6 2024 15:23 utc | 221

more tanks, beacause … why not
https://rutube.ru/video/e237ee83509b7588628ab08df4842fef/
(same event, with a bit more talk)
https://rutube.ru/video/d96e92cb98e9baace83ade2f911a20e8/

Posted by: pxx | May 6 2024 15:29 utc | 222

not b | May 6 2024 13:48 utc | 211
You’re being quite selective in your targetting of me. How much worse are my insults to ALL THE MANY calling various others hasbaras, jew lovers, 3 letter trolls, MI6 payees, Ukie stooges, deluded gold panners, etc.
I reserve my insults for the FEW worst of the worst idiots and arogant twats here who incessently post the most ridiculous rubbish … which many others condemn but in more polite ways, or just ignore without calling out. Also I hate the way people misread and strawman me and others. It’s blatantly dishonest.
I dunno how much abuse you remember of sb simply because he posts big batches on unpopular perspectives but loaded with military and historical facts.
Yes, I sometimes attack the person behind the dumb/arogant/bigotted posts because they are mostly BELOW any rationale for argument and because THAT’S where the problem lies, in the poster not in the substance. Ad hominum is a perfectly sensible way to tell someone what’s the problem behind their thinking. Eg, like peope who tell me to shut up cos they think I’m insecure. Far from it.
And the thing I’ve noticed here is the schizophrenic, Jeckle/Hyde, (presumed) intoxication. At say, 6pm, someone might post sensibly, but by 11pm they are posting rambling, incoherent drunken/stoned rubbish to which they never respond. Next morning they must be so full of remorse they still don’t answer their critics, or don’t post for several days. You’re being a bit precious about having me banned. Not that it would matter to my life one iota.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 15:38 utc | 223

For those who haven’t figured it out yet, Jake Blanchard is just the latest re-incarnation of Richard S. Hack…
Posted by: Simpleton | May 6 2024 14:56 utc | 221
Lol. That’s an old trope. Far from true and far from original. Lol at you Simple-Sock-Puppet. And people reckon sb and I post unnecessarily.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 15:41 utc | 224

The trouble with the YouTube commentariat and their followers is threefold. Firstly, their general understanding of military matters is inter-web deep, and as such they do not understand the broader canvas being painted, for example not differentiating between operation and tactical developments. Secondly, their dear diary’ format, that tries to see every outcome of every skirmish as though it’s of any significance, reinforces the shallow glide angle with which they approach the subject. Finally, the maps they create reinforce the impression that wars are won by simply capturing territory, they are not, they are won by capturing or controlling key terrain, or key points, which can be determined by a methodical analysis of terrain and its impact on the battle space.
The Russians are closing in on an operational breakthrough, which is why France, and now America are saying they will deploy ground troops to try to manage the rush for the Dnieper or help the Ukrainians conduct a fighting withdrawal, to prevent it. Counting each daily metre lost or gained is pointless as a metric, what needs to be assessed, post-operational outcome, is the amount of territory gained in totality, by an operation. Ukraine’s summer offensive was a total failure as at the end it created a micro-salient that has all but been erased, her gains in the Kharkov region were more substantive and strategically significant; however, she has not been able to exploit her gains, thanks to the efforts of a handful of para-military police, whose exploits dislocated the exploitation timetable.
I’ve just been out pollarding some trees and at first the saw seems to make a negligible impact, even when the limb is cut halfway through nothing, then the whole thing suddenly topples down, most military collapses replicate this illusion, in their pre-collapse state, hence the, ‘slowly then all at once’, maxim. Veterans often talk about bitter fighting one day, then the next day it’s over, with the cessation being so rapid and unexpected that many of them suffer a severe sense of dislocation.

Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 15:53 utc | 225

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 6 2024 15:23 utc | 222
No worries, it’s just whatever I think will complement Down South’s regular updates.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 6 2024 16:07 utc | 226

Natokraine has made a terrorist attack near Belgorod. Two minibuses of an agricultural company were hit with FPV drones. 6 people died on the spot.

Posted by: unimperator | May 6 2024 16:09 utc | 227

@Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 15:53 utc | 226
A comment worth wading through so much of the pap that pervades such discussions! The West would not be panicking if it did not see what the Russians are seeing, that the Ukrainian military is on its last legs while Russia can keep increasing the pressure until the front gives. The last major stronghold in the Donetsk area is the Toretsk-New York agglomeration. The advance north and west from Ocheretyne, and west and south from Bakhmut (with the taking of Chasiv Yar the next step) threatens to cut off that agglomeration and place it into a cauldron.
Then there will be no more strongholds built up over many years left, and also the fighting will leave the densely populated hilly terrain and move to the less populated plain. The move to the Dniepr could then be quite past, whether or not a new front is established. Fighting an enemy mostly constituted of ill-trained and badly equipped recruits on a plain with no major fortifications, when you have overwhelming superiority in artillery, armour, vehicles, equipment, munitions and in the air, can result in a collapse of the enemy. The only reason that has not occurred up to now is the nature of the terrain that the fighting has been taking place on and the extensive fortifications built up over many years. Together with the Russian carefulness about their soldier’s lives and those of civilians.
It was the same in Normandy, as soon as the break out occurred the advance to the Rhine was fast.

Posted by: Roger | May 6 2024 16:09 utc | 228

nothing, then the whole thing suddenly topples down, most military collapses replicate this illusion,
Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 15:53 utc | 226
Very true and not only in military situations.
Regimes, politicians, myriad of other social situations and constructs…
Apparently solid and eternal and then just crumble and nobody can understand why or how (and then tales are made up to explain and give a semblance of logic)
The tales we tell are this universe and the consent for its existence can vanish in an instant

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2024 16:12 utc | 229

In response to Simpleton@221,
To quote the goat, I didn’t even know he was sick. The good people here who see an impending Ukrainian collapse from attrition are the true humanists of our time. Your steadfastness against the heartless expectations being expressed of prolonging the suffering of citizens of that former country, as well as others, in exchange for the rate at which lines are being drawn on a map, is inspiring. I’m certain it’s not what the Russians initially had in mind in 2022, nor in 2015, but the variables that come into play when forcing someone to act in their own self-interest, particularly as concerns states governed by fools and compradors, create a logic chain where it’s not an open choice which links to go for and, sometimes, your choices are made for you. Plenty of actors with agency could and have added their contribution to the process, in one way or another, while others whose contribution could have been defining, or still might be, remain idle — the laser-like focus on what Russia did, does, could, will and should do, to the exclusion of everyone else involved, hints at ideas of omnipotence and unconditional benevolence on the part of that state and its leadership. Reality is more banal and worldly, and so the beatings will continue until morale improves.

Posted by: Skiffer | May 6 2024 16:14 utc | 230

“Wish me good luck in battle” – the cadets performed the famous “Blood Type” song by Viktor Tsoi while heading to the Victory Parade rehearsal

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/96950
Blood Type – Viktor Tsoi, the legend of Russian Rock

Posted by: Norwegian | May 6 2024 16:17 utc | 231

John Marks@# 64..May 5
You got it. Sri Lanka, Ceylon, Serendip would be a more precise location for a new formulation of the UN and other international agencies. Unlike India, to their immediate northwest, Sri Lanka is a relatively small country and thus would not play power-politics against other nations.
India is proving a level of national belligerence in their treatment of Kashmir. In a better world Kashmir would be an independent state with a declared constitution based on freedoms of speech, assembly, religion or lack thereof.
Many current nation-states which had been colonized, mostly in the 19th Century, but also in earlier times, tend to be hodgepodges of ethno-tribal groupings which are not generic, rather impositional by the colonizing powers in the first instance. Nigeria immediately comes to mind as a nation state which ought to be broken up in order to ultimately recover from colonialist imperialism.

Posted by: aristodemos | May 6 2024 16:20 utc | 232

Many current nation-states which had been colonized, mostly in the 19th Century, but also in earlier times, tend to be hodgepodges of ethno-tribal groupings which are not generic, rather impositional by the colonizing powers in the first instance. Nigeria immediately comes to mind as a nation state which ought to be broken up in order to ultimately recover from colonialist imperialism.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 6 2024 16:20 utc | 233
Rather the other way round, larger civilizational poles, allowing internal rotation as lineages rise and fall (china’s stability arises from two Han but separate lineages (sichuan plain vs rest) , Manchu -jurchen and even mongol-Tibetan ) .
Likewise for the upper-lower Egypt and kush and Lybians

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2024 16:35 utc | 233

Might seem a bit tangential but the sanctions are connected to the SMO and the situation mirrors a lot of what went wrong in Ukraine
Latvian state railways are asking to be exempted from sanctions to able to buy parts from Russia and Belarus for their trains.
The ironic thing here is most regional and commuter passenger trains in the USSR were made in the Latvian SSR, at the legendary RVR factory (like the one pictured above). These trains were the backbone of Soviet urban networks, exported all over the communist bloc and still heavily used by post soviet countries, Latvia included. After independence, Latvia was quick to privatize and dismantle the plant, and now they can’t even repair the trains they used to built.

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2024 16:48 utc | 234

Posted by: unimperator | May 6 2024 16:09 utc | 228
I get the impression that this stuff is being dialled to the highest level that won’t provoke a decisive response. From this perspective, Crocus City Hall was a failure because it hardened official and public opinion in a way that seem to have mostly persisted.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/111931

🇺🇦🏴‍☠️💥🇷🇺 What is known about the attack of Ukrainian drones on employees of an agricultural complex near Belgorod.
▪️The attack took place near the village of Berezovka in the Borisov district. Two Gazelle buses carrying employees and a passenger car were attacked.
▪️7 people died. The number of wounded is 35 people, including 3 children, they were taken to medical institutions.
▪️The Russian Investigative Committee is investigating what happened.
▪️Governor Gladkov expressed his condolences to the families and friends of the victims.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 6 2024 16:50 utc | 235

Well, it looks like I missed out on some fun. Lots of posts deleted (don’t tell me, let me guess), with a reshuffling of post numbers, which is why it‘s a good idea to include the time stamp when quoting posts, not just the post #.

“My name is Shadowbanned, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

~~~
Anyway, found this on Ukranews; looks attritional to me: https://ukranews.com/en/news/1003732-latest-russia-s-mass-attacks-cause-usd-1-billion-in-losses-to-energy-industry-halushchenko

Massive attacks by the russian occupiers in recent months have caused more than USD 1 billion in damage to the energy industry.
This follows from a statement by the Ministry of Energy, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
“Today, we are talking about the losses of more than USD 1 billion. But the attacks continue, and it is obvious that the losses will increase,” said Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko.
He emphasized that the main damage as a result of massive attacks was done to thermal and hydro generation facilities, as well as electricity transmission systems.
At the same time, daily attacks on various types of energy facilities by drones, ballistics, or artillery continue.
“The system is stable today, but the situation is quite difficult,” the minister said.
According to him, currently, due to favorable weather conditions, the energy system can be balanced with the capacities of renewable energy sources (RES).
“At the same time, in some regions, in particular in Kharkiv, which is subject to enemy fire on a daily basis, there are restrictions on electricity supply. In the region, work is being carried out to stabilize the situation and prepare for the autumn-winter period. To carry out restoration and repair works, as well as to increase the capacities of shunting generation, the help of international partners,” Halushchenko said.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2024 17:03 utc | 236

https://t.me/ZeRada1/19485
^Ukrainians dragged out some disgusting tranny to desecrate orthodox Easter.

Posted by: anonposter | May 6 2024 17:09 utc | 237

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang@327
“The system is stable today, but the situation is quite difficult,” the minister said”
From the Ministry of Funny Walks, “excuse me sir, but how many times will we need to keep blowing it up before it stops working.”
Might be an aim thing, or all the major electrical components are under bridges.
The best, most deadliest stand off weapons known to personkind and they dance the disco in Kiev, foreign dignitaries whine and dine there, soon they can vaca in the Black Sea, tiss good Russia is only prosecuting a SMO and not a war, otherwise visiting Brits might have something to fear……speaking of fear, smell any in the UK, nope, narry a wiff.
Do you know why, British lawyers have no fear of Russian lawyers, do you know why, if it were Brits issuing the ‘warrant’ it would have included the names of all the accomplices, at home, in the SMO, and, and this is the difference between the competence of said lawyers……those accomplices residing abroad….Hello, David Cameron, Blob Johnson, Cookieman Nuddles….and a host of others.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 6 2024 17:27 utc | 238

…with a reshuffling of post numbers….
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2024 17:03 utc | 237

Thank you, now it makes sense.

Posted by: McAgnew | May 6 2024 17:48 utc | 239

After Great Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron spoke out in favor of deploying British long-range missiles into Russian territory, his country’s ambassador was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry today. There Nigel Casey received an unmistakable warning.
.
Moscow will retaliate against British targets in Ukraine or elsewhere if Kiev uses UK-supplied missiles to hit Russian territory. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced this to the British ambassador in Moscow on Monday.
.
Ambassador Nigel Casey was summoned to the ministry after British Foreign Secretary David Cameron told Reuters that Ukraine had the right to use long-range missiles supplied by Britain to attack targets deep in Russia.
.
“Casey was warned that the response to Ukrainian attacks with British weapons on Russian territory could affect all British military installations and equipment on the territory of Ukraine and also worldwide,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement after the meeting.

Posted by: ossi | May 6 2024 18:12 utc | 240

Veterans often talk about bitter fighting one day, then the next day it’s over, with the cessation being so rapid and unexpected that many of them suffer a severe sense of dislocation.
Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 15:53 utc | 226
———————————————————-
Truly worth noting.
Thank you, sir, as always.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 18:14 utc | 241

Russia’s Foreign Ministry: Will treat F-16s as carriers of nuclear weapons
If F-16 fighter jets arrive in Ukraine, Russia’s armed forces will treat them as nuclear weapons carriers; their delivery to Kiev will be seen as a deliberate provocation on the part of the West. The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a press release:
“In the near future, US-made F-16 multi-role aircraft are expected in the Ukrainian theater of operations. As the Russian side has noted several times, we cannot ignore the fact that these aircraft will become dual-use platforms – non-nuclear and nuclear – Aircraft of this type have for years formed the basis of the aircraft fleet used in NATO’s so-called ‘joint nuclear missions’. Regardless of the specific modification of these aircraft, we will consider them as carriers of nuclear weapons and this step USA and NATO as a targeted provocation.”
The agency further announced that Russia would also respond in a mirror image to the stationing of US short- and medium-range missiles “wherever” and lift the self-imposed moratorium on these weapons. Regarding the further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the ministry warned:
Feedback geben
Seitenleisten
Verlauf
Gespeichert

Posted by: ossi | May 6 2024 18:17 utc | 242

It was the same in Normandy, as soon as the break out occurred the advance to the Rhine was fast.
Posted by: Roger | May 6 2024 16:09 utc | 229
——————————————————
Not so fast, young man. Big Serge, a nom de plume taken after Sergey Witte, half Dutch and half Russian, has educated me beyond compare. He is a tanker and a great military historian as well as a great writer. Start with Part 18.
I was born in occupied territory during WW II and thought I knew my stuff. Not even close.
https://bigserge.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=substack_profile

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 18:20 utc | 243

Reality is more banal and worldly, and so the beatings will continue until morale improves.
Posted by: Skiffer | May 6 2024 16:14 utc | 231
——————————————————-
Progress is just that, by any measure. Ukie morale nor NATO morale might improve anytime soon. This will go on until it does no longer.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 18:29 utc | 244

Posted by: not b | May 6 2024 13:48 utc | 211
@b: I second the motion by @not b to ban Jake Blanchard.

Posted by: abc | May 6 2024 18:31 utc | 245

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 6 2024 17:27 utc | 239
Apologies, it’s not clear to me what your point is, might well be my fault, I don’t have a Guinness to English translation app installed.
Oh, btw, as you’re a leprechaun, you wouldn’t happen to have Ukraine’s gold reserves at the end of your rainbow? Asking for a friend (well, Western metals exchanges actually, they appear to be running out of the physical to back up the GLD certificates they’ve been issuing like confetti over the years).

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2024 18:37 utc | 246

ossi@241….so there are British targets in the Ukraine, that the Russian representative has just threatened…..SloJokeMow….if ever there was.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 6 2024 18:39 utc | 247

The agency further announced that Russia would also respond in a mirror image to the stationing of US short- and medium-range missiles “wherever” and lift the self-imposed moratorium on these weapons. Regarding the further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the ministry warned:
Feedback geben
Seitenleisten
Verlauf
Gespeichert
Posted by: ossi | May 6 2024 18:17 utc | 243
——————————————————
That is a great move. The Russians are ‘feeling their oats’ which is an American expression. I don’t know what the corresponding German, nor Dutch would be. The very fact that it is out there for public consumption, IMHO, is a big deal.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 18:41 utc | 248

I feel like the announcement today of of Russia tactical nuclear drill to be scheduled has been relegated to mere bombastic speech.
The WH states is “rhetoric”, “irresponsible given the strategic tension in the world today” (disconnect again-as if US isn’t sole instigator globally for the strategic global tensions).
All I know is that many years ago, I watched a speech by Putin, where he reiterated : “how many times have we warned you, are you asleep?”
When I see the UK/Pentagon response, I see no concern or deterrent at all. I see no consideration to change tactics, goals or actions against Russia in the slightest. It’s a blank stare. The West is truly going to walk into nuclear war asleep.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 6 2024 18:41 utc | 249

Posted by: Roger | May 6 2024 16:09 utc | 229
Yup, I’ve used the Normandy breakout, after a month long attritional battle, as a key exemplar of what a future operation might look like. I’ve also alluded to the race for the Dnieper crossings, in ‘43, as another possibility. All those prematurely burying the tank might want to think again, it’s in its element when rampaging in the rear areas, and drones are really only a force multiplier, as offensive weapons, whilst they have secure frontlines to operate behind.
Your point about the Allies seeing what the Russians are seeing is correct, but perhaps needs to be reversed. The Russians are probably seeing the summaries of the Allies SF ‘advisors’ and alphabet agencies daily reports on the state of their proxy, and how close they are to the dreaded break-point. Of course the Russians might be being fed dis-info and become victims of cyber maskirovka, but I bet some second-tier NATO handler, who couldn’t resist Natasha, or Nikolai’s charms (or both) is providing an info-conduit to those reports.
I would also suspect that some in the Ukrainian professional officer class are helping the Russians rid their armed forces of the neo-Nazi element. Which might be a reason some Azov battalions have become so battle shy recently, due to fragging or perhaps deliberate blue on blue droning.

Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 18:43 utc | 250

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang@247…. it’s leprechaunese….your either fluent, or English….
Cheers M
…the point, Russia is incapable of turning of the Ukraine’s power supply, couldn’t if they tried….and try they desperately do.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 6 2024 18:44 utc | 251

Posted by: RB | May 6 2024 8:51 utc | 180

I think you are hopelessly uninformed. All forms of jihadists were created and used by the empire with an occasional blowback. So, they are friends of the empire.

What are you talking about, what empire, what jihadists, there are no jihadists in that video. They are all members of Russian Armed Forces.

Posted by: hopehely | May 6 2024 18:48 utc | 252

Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 15:53 utc | 226
Always exepting the tried and true around here (all long term visitors know who they are), this post of yours/all your posts, are like rubies dumped into a tank of lard.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | May 6 2024 19:05 utc | 253

The question really is whether or not NATO will lose the war without using nuclear weapons.
If the damn fools in France, Poland, and/or Washington manage to put enough troops in Ukraine (or try to take Transnistria) and start using air support flying out of Romania and Poland, then Russia will take out the airbases along with NATO troops in theater. Will NATO admit defeat or try to use nukes to prevent defeat on the battlefield?
Posted by: Perimetr | May 6 2024 14:08 utc | 212
———————–
Neo-s**t-libs don’t make good martyrs, particularly as they go higher up the chain.
As I’ve posted before, you need an actual army to fight. They’ve already neigh pissed away the best one they had in the AFU. Along with a lot of equipment & munitions.
The rest of EU-NATOland cant sustain the numbers of their peacetime armies, nor equip them properly. They’re auxiliaries at best, decorative toys at worst.
The one army NATO has left is the US and it’s actually in bad shape too, even before the awful logistics gathering it up & trying to enter Ukraine en-masse factor in.

Posted by: Urban Fox | May 6 2024 19:06 utc | 254

The West is truly going to walk into nuclear war asleep.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 6 2024 18:41 utc | 250
——————————————————
I doubt that. Talk is cheap. The US professionals, military and otherwise, pretty much consider that a ‘dead man’s exercise.’ Keeping up the pretenses is a big deal, same for the Russians.
They all know that there will be no hereafter after that thereafter. All the deterrence, etc. talk is its own very special Kabuki theater full of its own nitty gritty, dull as all can be. Introducing F-16s in a dual use capacity is a tripwire. The WH and DoS leadership lacks depth and makes funny talk.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 19:11 utc | 255

“I would also suspect that some in the Ukrainian professional officer class are helping the Russians rid their armed forces of the neo-Nazi element. Which might be a reason some Azov battalions have become so battle shy recently, due to fragging or perhaps deliberate blue on blue droning.”
Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 18:43 utc | 251
You might be right that-‘ Azov battalions have become battle shy recently, due to the fragging or perhaps deliberate blue on blue droning’; I have a different, or accompanying, idea.
Avoz like all Nazis are , fundamentally, cowards-they only strike when they have the advantage.

Posted by: canuck | May 6 2024 19:20 utc | 256

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 18:20 utc | 244
By mid-‘44 US Army’s casualties in the ETO were so high (2-300%) that times for basic training, especially officer’s’, was cut in half so as to be able to keep up with the replacement schedule. The Red Army suffered even worse, with their late war TO&E’s (Table of Organisation and Equipment) changing to reflect the staggering loses that the Germans inflicted on them, losing, for example, 600+ AFV’s in the first days of the German counter-offensive in Hungary. Il-2 ground-attack pilots sometimes flew 6-7 times a day, due to the imbalance of sorties required and pilots and machines available, with some anti-aircraft units being used so frequently, to beat off Luftwaffe attacks, they wore away the rifling in their barrels.
Fighting in the Low-Countries was particularly brutal for the British and Commonwealth Allies, who had to assault heavily fortified positions in flooded terrain, and the fighting towards the Rhine saw some units reconstituted several times. In the end the British used copious amounts of artillery and air support to stop their infantry from suffering literally irreplaceable losses.
If you are at all interested in the Allied soldiers experience’s this is a must read.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sharp-End-Fighting-Man-World/dp/1845134591

Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 19:23 utc | 257

the point, Russia is incapable of turning of the Ukraine’s power supply, couldn’t if they tried….and try they desperately do.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 6 2024 18:44 utc | 252
But why would Russia seek to turn off Ukraine’s power supply completely? They are not waging war against the Ukrainian population as whole, especially the poor, suffering plebs who get kidnapped by the corrupt press-gang operatives.
Sure, it makes sense to attrite the power supplies feeding industrial/commercial enterprises (especially those producing military hardware), forcing a reconfiguration of the grid to primarily support civilian demand.
The goal of the SMO is to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, has anyone in the Russian government said otherwise?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2024 19:28 utc | 258

Anyone really think Xi is in Europe to discuss trade? Presidents don’t discuss trade they finalize agreements, underlings discuss and iron out trade. Xi’s only going to France then to pro RF Hungary and Serbia. His trip coincides with German, UK, and French ambassadors being called into to the Kremlin. Also, coincides with RF doing short range nuclear exercises. No point talking peace with anyone but the USA, Xi went to France to talk war, in a few weeks he will meet with Putin in China to discuss what he found, if France is totally on board for Atlanticist war or if the once great power still has some integrity and sanity left.
Russia is at a critical time now as it’s finally making long planned and hard gained progress in round two, post Kherson pull back, nothing will be allowed to trip them up, there will be no round three. I think Xi is there to reinforce Russian warnings and add his own – end it now, last chance, otherwise we will fully back Russia militarily. Despite all the Chinese flag waving along his motorcade in France and all the bonhomie, this looks very much to me like the years around 1939 when leaders would fly from capital to capital giving each other admonitions and threats.
Oh, and why anytime le Tres Petit Roi meets with Xi does he bring along his Tres Petit Shadow von der Leyen? She’s not French, not part of the French government, she is the unelected President of the EU in which case if Xi wanted to meet her he would have scheduled in a stop in Brussels, but he didn’t. Normal would be for Macron to contact her afterwards and report on what was discussed. She seems to act like a NATO Atlanticist political commissar keeping an eye on anyone with the power of going outside the NATO party line.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2024 19:29 utc | 259

Russia threatening to use tactical nukes if NATO enter the war in Ukraine. We live in interesting times.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240506/russias-not-bluffing-tactical-nuke-drills-are-deafening-warning-to-nato-to-stay-out-of-ukraine-1118294192.html

Posted by: Surferket | May 6 2024 19:32 utc | 260

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang @ 259

The goal of the SMO is to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, has anyone in the Russian government said otherwise?

That is the goal, to drain the bath tube and that is going well, but what happens when you are half way through and some dick comes along and starts pouring in a bucket or two for every bucket you bail out? You get very angry. That’s where we are at now.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2024 19:43 utc | 261

Dima: West Backs Off After Nuclear Warning
So, Russia managed to scare the West? Is that true?
If so. they should have done it much earlier.
Maybe, our Shadowbanned was right.

Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 19:47 utc | 262

RE: Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2024 19:29 utc | 260
Agree with your post, only to add the arrest warrant and earlier statements seem to indicate Zelensky won’t be recognized to sign surrender past the 20-21st. After that, Ukraine has no “legitimate” governance as far as Russia concerned.
As for US and “peace deal”, think same “surrender” deal applies. He may need Macron for wider EU security agreement, but I personally see no hope for US change.
Think window for US closing. Soon, it’ll just continue but expand.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 6 2024 19:47 utc | 263

But why would Russia seek to turn off Ukraine’s power supply completely?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2024 19:28 utc | 259
Besides the nuclear options, that is the only way Russia can escalate.
Ukrainian population is mainly against Russia.

Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 19:55 utc | 264

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2024 19:43 utc | 262
Oh yes, fair comment. It was @sean_the_leprechaun’s narrow point about Russia’s approach to Ukraine’s power grid as somehow being indicative of a wider Russian failure that provoked my reply.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2024 20:00 utc | 265

Posted by: canuck | May 6 2024 19:20 utc | 257
Actually the reverse is often true, 12SS Hitler Jugend were noted for not surrendering in Normandy, when the British Crocodile flamethrower tanks shot a warning rod of flame at their bunkers, like most of their Wehrmacht compatriots, and on the Eastern Front the Nordic legions often fought with the bravery only fanaticism bestows.. So I’m wondering if this reluctance is a product of Azov REMF’s having to become front-line combat soldiers, to replace losses. Plenty of examples of that in WW2 fascist forces.

Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 20:01 utc | 266

Posted by: Norwegian | May 6 2024 16:17 utc | 232
Here you have a studio version with footage from the film “9ya Rota” The 9th Company.
https://youtu.be/pbn-6C4-TC8

Posted by: Paco | May 6 2024 20:01 utc | 267

@Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 18:20 utc | 244
I suppose age is relative! At 60 I am a “young man” to someone born in WW2. I follow Big Serge, and also the actual real history of the British Army in WW2 which is pretty ignominious; Singapore perhaps being its greatest failure and Market Garden the greatest tribute to Montgomery’s at best mediocrity. The Brits got the best terrain in Normandy and fucked it up royally through battle-weariness, lack of aggression and bad leadership. The Americans got “hedgerow country”, and Omaha Beach.
The performance of the Brits (and I am British!) showed what would have happened if Rommel had been properly supplied (and perhaps a few more U-boats stationed in Italy/Greece/Crete to hinder British supplies), they got completely blown away by the much better trained and effective German tank formations. In Operation Cobra the US used its overwhelming superiority on a small area of the front to break the German lines. Then it drove south, then east, then north to close the pocket on the Germans (the Falaise pocket). The Brits hardly moved.
A quote from Big Serge:

Operation Cobra and Patton’s subsequent explosion into the rear marked a stunning acceleration of the war, relative to the preceding slog in Normandy. From the D-Day Landings on June 6 to the start of Operation Cobra on July 25, it had taken the Americans 49 days just to reach St Lo – a midsized Normandy town just 20 miles from the beaches. Just 28 days later, on August 21, the Falaise Pocket was liquidated. Four days later, Paris was liquidated. The pace change was shocking – like a straining dam, the Wehrmacht had done everything to hold the water back for months, and when it burst it did so in astonishing fury.

Once the dam broke things accelerated very fast, that is exactly what I am proposing with the “dam” of the massive entrenchments around Donbass – Bakhmut, Pisky, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Marinka, Novomyhailavka, Avdeevka, NY-Toretsk agglomeration, Vuhledar etc. The many months of attrition have also destroyed the professional Ukrainian army (perhaps 3 such armies in the past 2 years), with up to 45,000 a month now being killed, irreversibly injured, MIA and surrendered. Plus all the equipment and the Ukrainian military industrial complex. While the Russians add men and material every day. Last year’s Ukrainian offensive can be paralleled to the German Operation Luttich, the former allowed for a massive level of attrition of the Ukrainian forces while the latter moved the Germans deeper into the Falaise pocket and thus ensuring their greater destruction.
Big Serge: Apex Predator: The American Army in Normandy
An excellent book on the realities of British wartime leadership is “Hollow Heroes An Unvarnished Look at the Wartime Careers of Churchill, Montgomery, and Mountbatten” by Michael Arnold. Also Tariq Ali’s biography of Churchill gives a clear view of the kind of man Churchill was, and how he quite liked fascism as long as it was not aimed at Britain (the reason why he became anti-Hitler, as he saw that Nazi Germany could not be easily controlled and would seek victory in the West as well as the East).
The current state of the Ukrainian Army:
UKRAINE ARMY LARGELY DESTROYED, BATTLEFIELD LOSSES, MOBILISED WITH MENTAL ILLNESS, CANCER, FOREVER WAR CRIPPLING WEST, THE $61BN FARCE, NOVOROSSIYA PEACE BASIS

According to retired Ukraine State Security Service colonel Oleg Starikov the new Mobilization law (and the attempt to force Ukrainian refugees of military age abroad to return) will not help Kyiv turn the tide of the war; untrained recruits cannot defeat the Russian army. According to Starikov Ukraine no longer has a regular army; the NATO trained army of 400,000 has been largely destroyed by Russian troops in two years of fighting. There remain a few professional brigades with unexperienced officers and recent poorly trained recruits.
There is massive internal resistance to the war inside Ukraine with 12m having left the country, some 650,000 men of military age living abroad, even more in “internal exile” fleeing the government’s press gangs who kidnap them off the streets, the daily flight of potential soldiers over the borders to Moldova and Romania (often with border guard help, doubtless at a price) and as People’s Deputy of Ukraine Yuri Kamelchuk said:
“At least 15 thousand Ukrainian military personnel received disciplinary punishments for refusing to follow orders”
They are apparently not sent back to the battlefield. So, desperate for new bodies to be hurled into the front line, Kiev’s new mobilisation law declares the mentally ill and mentally retarded will be drafted into the Armed Forces. Men and women will also be considered fit for service even if they have HIV, hepatitis, tuberculosis or cancer.

Also, the widespread corruption that has served to undermine the Ukrainian war effort. The supposed extra defence lines have not been anywhere near fully built as funds were siphoned off into private bank accounts.

Widespread corruption has siphoned off much of the $200bn of western civil and military aid to Ukraine. So much money meant for the building of defence lines as the Ukrainian army retreats have been misappropriated by middlemen and contractors.
”We have nothing!” complained Ukraine General Krivonos angrily on live television about a lack of ammunition. Krivonos emphasized that military operations cannot rely solely on the sacrifice of soldiers’ lives.
“If we (the Ukrainian authorities) had not embezzled funds but instead invested them, we could have allocated 25-35 million – but unfortunately, this is not the case! We have numerous factories capable of quickly repairing equipment, but unfortunately, this is not happening.”

Posted by: Roger | May 6 2024 20:07 utc | 268

Besides the nuclear options, that is the only way Russia can escalate.

Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 19:55 utc | 265
You seem remarkably well-informed about Russia’s escalatory options being limited. What are the other options you have ruled out?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2024 20:09 utc | 269

@Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 18:43 utc | 251

I would also suspect that some in the Ukrainian professional officer class are helping the Russians rid their armed forces of the neo-Nazi element. Which might be a reason some Azov battalions have become so battle shy recently, due to fragging or perhaps deliberate blue on blue droning.

I hope so, the faster the indoctrinated die-hards can be eliminated the faster this conflict can end, and the rebuilding begin. The cancer which is a Western-dominated Ukraine needs to be excised and replaced once again with fraternal Russian-Ukrainian relations, with the Banderite scum sent to Valhalla.

Posted by: Roger | May 6 2024 20:13 utc | 270

LightYearsFromHome | May 6 2024 19:29 utc | 260
Von der Leyen is there as the “representative” of a “future” Europe, where Nations and national Governments have been dissolved. To make way for an Europe, over-ruled by an untouchable “technocratic” thingy and controlled by the US, Bankers and the chosen. But not democratic, where you will have nothing and not be amused.
So Xi, who will only give credit to “sovereign” Nations, will take home that France is no longer a Sovereign country. From then on I expect it to be considered not as a “entity worth talking to on a more or less equal level”, rather “just another” political Commissar with illusions of “Grandeur”.
Only hope here is that Macron and his Zionist front-runner for the EU Parliament are beaten. (Tete de Liste; Glucksmann) About him; He was a key actor in several US-led color revolutions and their aftermath (in Georgia and Ukraine)…..in 2020 he was elected president of the “Special Committee for foreign interference in all democratic processes in the EU, including disinformation”. The guy who is literally THE poster child for US interference and US propaganda in Europe has been put in charge of fighting foreign interference and disinformation in Europe. Already a MEP: Anti Russian as well
Longer description Here; https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1771016852459909434
****
I do see an “example” being made by the Russians with “Plausible deniabilty”. An unexplained explosion close to the US coast, or something that has been well worked out beforehand. They think ahead, don’t they?

Posted by: Stonebird | May 6 2024 20:25 utc | 271

Europe launching open war against Russia instead of proxy war is close now. As for the ‘mutual security agreements or military technical means, in Ukraine, Russia has hit Nato were it hurts.
Russia practicing tactical nuke drills means they see a very real threat of war with Europe, and with France and Britain both possessing their own nuclear weapons, others likely having access to American nukes… madness in the way Europe is going, but then so many wars through history involve an element of madness. Logic, common sense ect goes out the window – unneeded…

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 20:27 utc | 272

You seem remarkably well-informed about Russia’s escalatory options being limited. What are the other options you have ruled out?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 6 2024 20:09 utc | 270
Russia cannot attack NATO countries without going nuclear.
Today’s open Russian warning to UK means just that.

Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 20:35 utc | 273

Posted by: ossi | May 6 2024 18:12 utc | 241
More important than what is said is what not is said.
If the USA does not state, clearly and without ambiguity, that any attack on French or UK assets will be answered by a US attack on Russia, then the American bluff will have been called.

Posted by: Passerby | May 6 2024 20:45 utc | 274

“Strategy of Russia is to make sure they are unpredictable, while strategy in the Waste is to keep their population confused and scared.
They are both hugely successful.”
Posted by: Greg Galloway | May 6 2024 12:02 utc | 20
Profound post, thanks.
Simple but true.

Posted by: canuck | May 6 2024 20:46 utc | 275

“Europe launching open war against Russia instead of proxy war is close now. As for the ‘mutual security agreements or military technical means, in Ukraine, Russia has hit Nato were it hurts.”
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 20:27 utc | 273
You are right on the money, Peter.

Posted by: canuck | May 6 2024 20:48 utc | 276

UK and US have an equal allegiance. In response to Cameron publicly saying UK weapons can be used to strike into Russia, Russia has said they will strike British assets any where, in Ukraine or outside Ukraine.
The Brits have been working hard at drawing the US into direct conflict with Russia since the first Ukrainian army was destroyed.
The Brit deep state/city of London or whatever obviously works closely with the globalist faction of the US deep state. In the US, Trump who wants to dump the war against Russia to Attack China now threatened with jail time – wars revolve around US election cycles and virtually all post WWII wars involve the US…

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 20:51 utc | 277

“Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 15:53 utc | 226
Always excepting the tried and true around here (all long term visitors know who they are), this post of yours/all your posts, are like rubies dumped into a tank of lard.”
Posted by: Robert E.Smith | May 6 2024 19:05 utc | 254
A wonderful and accurate simile; Hail to Milites!!

Posted by: canuck | May 6 2024 20:51 utc | 278

vargas@274…..wait, some Russians really said that, ‘open warning’, not demilitarized denazified….but really hinted, nudge nudge, wink wink, if those F16’s, that are nuclear capable, really do show up in the Ukraine…. we’ll jump up and down and stomp our feet, might even pull our hair…that the SMO is at this point, and anyone with five working brain cells knows if Ukie gets da plane, they get da bomb, er….bombs if they ask.
Cheers M
Applied logic, let’s skip the math….everyone has a bellylarf every time F16 for Ukraine gets mentioned, not Mr Lavrov though, he’s a bit of a ‘chicken little’ ‘crying wolf’ doesn’t he read MOA, F16’s, piece of crap, Russia’s S300/350/400/450 2.0 and S500, sorry forgot about the math bit, will toss them from the sky, much easier than the SU’s Ukraine is currently using, Russia appears to have a bit of an issue there, a topic for another day.
Longer range weapons on the way, maybe there even, oh and I know, Russia catches 90% of those but it only takes one errant stoke of the blade to remove a nut or two, one will most certainly live, win the battle even, but life will be so much less….let’s say, exciting!

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 6 2024 21:14 utc | 279

UK and US have an equal allegiance. In response to Cameron publicly saying UK weapons can be used to strike into Russia, Russia has said they will strike British assets any where, in Ukraine or outside Ukraine.
The Brits have been working hard at drawing the US into direct conflict with Russia since the first Ukrainian army was destroyed.
The Brit deep state/city of London or whatever obviously works closely with the globalist faction of the US deep state. In the US, Trump who wants to dump the war against Russia to Attack China now threatened with jail time – wars revolve around US election cycles and virtually all post WWII wars involve the US…
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 20:51 utc | 278
————————
Please mark me, when I say with all cordialness.
You vastly overrated the capability, influence and courage. Of the UK.
Lord Pigf**Ker has no pull in DC, nor does anyone else in London.
Whatever else you can say about them, no-one in DC: is truly listening to, being influenced by or has respect for these cucks. For ego reasons if nothing else, it’d be beneath them.
The UK is thevUSA’s Renfield, not it’s ally or hidden puppet-master.

Posted by: Urban Fox | May 6 2024 21:24 utc | 280

Urban Fox | May 6 2024 21:24 utc | 281
Influence is the one think the once Great Britain has left.; Never under estimated the influence power of London. They are still very good at it and combine with the globalist faction in the US.
In studying this over the last years, British influence operations come close to matching that of the US, and in fact are much stronger in the countries bordering Russia than the US operations.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 21:30 utc | 281

“Posted by: canuck | May 6 2024 19:20 utc | 257
Actually the reverse is often true, 12SS Hitler Jugend were noted for not surrendering in Normandy, when the British Crocodile flamethrower tanks shot a warning rod of flame at their bunkers, like most of their Wehrmacht compatriots, and on the Eastern Front the Nordic legions often fought with the bravery only fanaticism bestows.. So I’m wondering if this reluctance is a product of Azov REMF’s having to become front-line combat soldiers, to replace losses. Plenty of examples of that in WW2 fascist forces.”
Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 20:01 utc | 267
I bow to your greater knowledge-thanks for the tutorial.

Posted by: canuck | May 6 2024 21:43 utc | 282

@Posted by: Urban Fox | May 6 2024 21:24 utc | 281
I always have a good laugh at the people who propose that somehow the British elite still runs things, when in fact Britain is the Corgi to the US ruling class and has been for many, many decades. Now the British are very useful in the “dark arts” for the US ruling class, just as the Israeli’s are (especially in their designated role of settler colony spoiler for the Middle East), but everyone understands who the boss is.
The Canadian elites have the same type of relationship with the US, a dogged ally that is treated with utter disdain. The Canadian’s are also useful at the dark arts, quite the opposite of their carefully manufactured “nice” reputation. They had no problem torturing young boy in Somalia, or overthrowing the elected Prime Minister of Haiti, for instance. Same with the Aussies.

Posted by: Roger | May 6 2024 21:55 utc | 283

The BLUFFS become more serious as Ukraine loses more land.
But thats what they are ….BLUFFS.
Western leaders have basically left their populations defenceless against a nuclear attack. Where are the underground shelters? Where are the leaflet instructions as to what to do in a nuclear attack? Where is the discussion in western press?
Its a complete bluff. France and the UK and US will not be sending troops to Ukraine. Its merely an effort to bolster morale in Kiev.

Posted by: HERMIUS | May 6 2024 22:05 utc | 284

Its a complete bluff. France and the UK and US will not be sending troops to Ukraine. Its merely an effort to bolster morale in Kiev.
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 6 2024 22:05 utc | 285
This is absolutely, one hundred percent correct. And when Ukraine finally collapses, those countries will either pretend they didn’t say those things, or walk back what they were saying – It happened too fast for us to react, or we didn’t really think the Russians would win, etc.

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 22:16 utc | 285

Russia cannot attack NATO countries without going nuclear.
Today’s open Russian warning to UK means just that.
Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 20:35 utc | 274
That’s what Russia wants them to think. Although, there can be a war between Russia and NATO countries without nuclear weapons. It will start as a conventional war, it could escalate to all-out nuclear war, although it could also look like the current attritional war.
But since there is a risk of nuclear weapons, I seriously doubt the West wants to find out if Russia is bluffing or not.

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 22:24 utc | 286

Roger | May 6 2024 21:55 utc | 284
What occurs in Canada when UK US have a difference. Here in OZ the politicians are confused for a bit at the different orders from their two masters but always end up going with the Brits.
The Chinese infrastructure bank is a good clear cut case for this but I have also noticed a number of other instances. Off memory, I think as soon as UK decided to join that Infrastructure bank, all its colonies did the same.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 22:30 utc | 287

Most military collapses replicate this illusion, in their pre-collapse state, hence the, ‘slowly then all at once’, maxim. Veterans often talk about bitter fighting one day, then the next day it’s over, with the cessation being so rapid and unexpected that many of them suffer a severe sense of dislocation.
Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 15:53 utc | 226
Indeed, everyone seems to be in agreement that this will happen with Ukraine. The West/NATO/US/France know this, Ukraine knows this, and Russia knows this. Even, I suspect, our more earnest trolls here know this. The only question is the timing of the collapse. Good post, by the way.

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 22:31 utc | 288

social transformation must happen inside Russia – Posted by: shadowbanned | May 6 2024 8:55 utc | 193
Just sayin’ —
In other pointless speculation, I wonder if someone started to use red mercury on the eastern front.

Posted by: persiflo | May 6 2024 22:34 utc | 289

Macron has threatened NATO / French intervention if there is a collapse of the Ukrainian Military.
The Ukrainian Military is in the process of collapse.
There is huge ongoing NATO exercise, (Steadfast Defender) currently taking place, which leaves masses of NATO military assets poised and ready to enter the battle zone.
Russia’s nuclear exercise is intended to make it clear to NATO that any attempt to enter the Ukraine theatre will be met with whatever means are necessary to repel that invasion, up to and including nuclear weapons.
That is where we are.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | May 6 2024 22:37 utc | 290

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 18:14 utc | 242
Fully agree with this assessment of the Milites contribution at – Posted by: Milites | May 6 2024 15:53 utc | 226
When it comes down to sensible and objective analysis of military situations, Milites is probably the best commentator on MoA.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 6 2024 23:03 utc | 291

That is a great move. The Russians are ‘feeling their oats’ which is an American expression. I don’t know what the corresponding German, nor Dutch would be. The very fact that it is out there for public consumption, IMHO, is a big deal.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 18:41 utc | 249
Den sticht der Hafer.

Posted by: persiflo | May 6 2024 23:30 utc | 292

Jacques Baud
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DA-a28JrbqY

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 23:43 utc | 293

There is huge ongoing NATO exercise, (Steadfast Defender) currently taking place, which leaves masses of NATO military assets poised and ready to enter the battle zone.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | May 6 2024 22:37 utc | 291
Those NATO exercises have been ongoing since January, and are scheduled to end in three weeks. At which time the assets in place will be returned to their proper bases. It’s all a big bluff, and it hasn’t deterred the Russians on the front.

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 23:57 utc | 294

Soviet Russian military doctrine – something in that that has allowed Russia to evolve from a peacetime combat readiness to a wartime combat hardened readiness. Perhaps its already in the culture… the ability to quickly evolve and adapt on a large scale.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 23:58 utc | 295

Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 6 2024 23:03 utc | 292
But I should add that comments by Roger and James M, among others should also be seriously considered. But Milites clearly has pretty extensive military knowledge, particularly when assessing overall strategic situations.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 7 2024 0:10 utc | 296

In response to and support of the perspective

The Ukrainian Military is in the process of collapse.
There is huge ongoing NATO exercise, (Steadfast Defender) currently taking place, which leaves masses of NATO military assets poised and ready to enter the battle zone.
Russia’s nuclear exercise is intended to make it clear to NATO that any attempt to enter the Ukraine theatre will be met with whatever means are necessary to repel that invasion, up to and including nuclear weapons.
That is where we are.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | May 6 2024 22:37 utc | 291

Thanks for that. All the proxy wars of empire are coming home to roost and all those chickens are wanting their big rooster to step up and protect them….LOL!
It serious shit show time and don’t let any hit you on the way past as this civilization war goes down……

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 7 2024 0:18 utc | 297

Barrel Brown | May 7 2024 0:10 utc | 297
Russia, Putin’s Russia, does not think ‘in the box’.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 7 2024 0:18 utc | 298

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 23:58 utc | 296
Yes, I would think that the Russian/Soviet experience during 1941-1945 would have impressed this on all Russian governments, and be integral to overall RF military culture. RF is surely aware of the potential for another Operation Barbarossa type adventure by the collective West and presumably appropriate and adequate contingency plans and directives have been in place for years-despite the utterances of doomers like SB and Vargas.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 7 2024 0:29 utc | 299

I must say, I find the silence of the western MSM concerning direct Russian military action against England quite deafening. Here are people who fall all over themselves trying to convince everyone that Russia has military objectives against Western Europe, not saying a word about any of this. Same goes for snap nuclear drills. Not even happening. I think it lends credence to Hermius’ bluff theory (sorry, can’t think of a better word).

Posted by: Caveman | May 7 2024 0:36 utc | 300