Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 5, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-129

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

It looks like French troops are taking part in the defense of Chasov Yar…

Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 23:50 utc | 101

The only indicator of victory is when Ukraine officially surrenders and agrees to all of Russia’s terms not some vacuous body counts.
Posted by: Moonie | May 5 2024 22:05 utc | 87
Only two reasons :
1. In wars like these at certain “pain threshold” there is pressure to end things, casualties and Kia impact these
2. As casualties rise you lose trained resources , there is the added bonus that as I read in a recent article, nato equipment is not like RF equipment that was specifically designed to be adequately handled even by rookies

Posted by: Newbie | May 5 2024 23:51 utc | 102

He says they should have the right to refuse military service, bc it’s a right enshrined in Germany’s constitution, and bc drafting people unwilling to fight “doesn’t make AFU stronger”.
William Gruff | May 5 2024 20:26 utc | 68
It is not about making afu stronger, it is about killing as many ukrainians as possible. It is to empty the country.

Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 23:54 utc | 103

Smuks 100 then there is this
GERMAN MINISTER PROPOSES DEPORTING UKRAINIAN DRAFT DODGERS: Interior Minister of Central German state Hesse takes leaf out of Czech Republic’s book and voices plan to help Kiev regime nab its cannon fodder currently hidden away in Germany.
We can help ensure that Ukraine can rely on men who’ve fled abroad but who can be used in war. It’s important to support Ukraine’s readiness to defend itself – Interior Minister Poseck insists.
😐 Poseck won’t state real reason he wants to chuck ‘em out – just 1/5 of Ukrainian “refugees” in Germany have full-time jobs and rest getting free housing and $600 monthly allowance courtesy of German taxpayers…

Posted by: Hankster | May 5 2024 23:55 utc | 104

“Après nous le déluge”
@ kvp | May 5 2024 18:02 utc | 46

Very nice work. Merci beaucoup!

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 5 2024 23:57 utc | 105

Looks like the rats, Blackrock and Pimco, are leaving the sinking Ukrainian ship-they want Ukraine to begin repaying their debt with interest after a 2 year suspension
https://www.rt.com/business/597026-ukraine-lenders-debt-repayment/

Posted by: canuck | May 5 2024 23:57 utc | 106

French troops are taking part in the defense of Chasov Yar…
Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 23:50 utc | 101

Chassis yehah now known as Chavroux Bleu .
>soft
>spreadable
>derived from goats.
Yep.

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 5 2024 23:58 utc | 107

canuck | May 5 2024 23:57 utc | 106 “begin repaying their debt with interest after a 2 year suspension”
Sugar daddy not so sweet now. Uncle sugar now a little vinegary.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 0:12 utc | 108

It looks like French troops are taking part in the defense of Chasov Yar…
Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 23:50 utc | 101
They are mercenaries, and they will die.

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 0:12 utc | 109

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 15:48 utc | 19
Yes, exactly all!
It never ceases to amaze me how the Big Thrust Folks fail to even think that through. Perhaps big thrust is all they know. (My wife never liked it, but it’s popular in porno videos … I believe ;).
But tbh, it was the dominant mindset of every pro and anti mapper, every MSM news pundit, every forum junkie up until about mid 2023 when the lights went on about the tactical and strategic wisdom of the S-low-Mo. “RF offensive just round the corner, RF is gearing up for a big strike, it’ll happen after the xxx holiday, AFU is collapsing, the time is ripe,” they all prophesised. I originally got caught up in it too until I saw the results of a S-low-MO and thought it through exactly as you expressed it.
Don’t the buffoons think the Kremlin war gamed it through?

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 0:16 utc | 110

They are mercenaries, and they will die.
Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 0:12 utc | 109
Soldiers are foreign, officers are French.

Posted by: Naive | May 6 2024 0:30 utc | 111

Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 0:16 utc | 110
The gamers… Ritter though has to be given credit for very quickly picking up that this was something different to our post WWII and earlier era.
Lavrov’s hybrid war. Sun Tzu. Russia applying full spectrum warfare. Great power war in the nuclear age…. Biden vs Putin? Even Biden’s handlers don’t cut it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 6 2024 0:30 utc | 112

Posted by: canuck | May 5 2024 16:33 utc | 25
Did you just disagree with @Neo’s #19 and #23 out of principle?
Firstly, sanctions came AFTER the Feb 2022 “invasion” (Dec 2021, “if you invade, we will sanction you like hell), so they can’t have been Plan A. Also, sanctions took a year to get properly ensconced. And don’t ya think NATO has had its military plans since 2014, or at least Dec 2021. So that makes it Plan A. Plan C was clearly the 2023 counter offensive. Plan D, who tf knows! Maybe stall till Dec elections; maybe another Ukie push; maybe a dribbling forever guerilla war, maybe all 3.
Neo’s scenario is EXACTLY what McGregor, Ritter, Martyanov — all guys with good military analytical credentials — have been saying since day 1, AND THE SUBSEQUENT ON GROUND FACTS bear it out. They perfectly projected the way the West thinks. Save your bandwidth for sensible posts.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 0:43 utc | 113

Just seen elsewhere the photo of an Abraham’s getting disabled by a 152 shell.
Some days ago there was the news of nato excaliburs going from 70 to 7% hit rate…
Now for some serous discussion , SlowMO has no alternative as long as there are opposing forces in the vicinity , and body bags hardly matter as long as the line holds.
If conditions change , and they might easily with current levels of attrition , things can change in a flash.
So far no sign , but wouldn’t surprise me if they do change, particularly if added frontline happens.

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2024 0:47 utc | 114

sob is really a son of a bitch. He is lying constantly and without shame.

Posted by: Naive | May 6 2024 1:06 utc | 115

Posted by: canuck | May 5 2024 17:00 utc | 32
Again, did you just disagree out of principle?
You don’t read or construe very carefully do you. Ossi at #30 was NOT adressing their force or relative effectiveness, but simply reporting a reputable report. Besides, it is NOT the quantity which matters. It is the principle of the employment, small or large at this stage.
Despite innumerable conjecture, we pkebs have no fkn idea what Macron’s motives are. Who knows what surreptitous deals he has discussed with Z, Biden, NATO, London.
What I find the most interesting is that EVERYONE HERE, bar one or two … myself included, said 3 months ago “Macron is just pumping hot air”. Now, we see, obviously not.
So what’s his real game? 150 per week *might* be: setting up camps for a Romanian/Polish contingent to step in for an Odessan protection zone. They might be setting traps for any Russian advance. They might be assisting plans for a big amphibious Krinky crossing #2. Who knows. Obviously they are not going to take on the Russian army. But I would NOT discount those troops as just a silly folly.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 1:07 utc | 116

He does not contribute facts, but lies. Like any other pro-nazi agent provocateur.

Posted by: Naive | May 6 2024 1:08 utc | 117

Just to let everyone know that BS is SB backward…..
What comes to my mind is the optics of thousands of bodybags coming back to French soil over the next number of weeks before the Olympics. Is there an Olympic gold medal for number of bodybags/month?
While it might seem we are in Alice’s Wonderland, the reality of the growing China/Russia axis of resistance and the BRICS+ movement towards direct challenge to the God Of Mammon cult of global private finance should bring most delusions of continued hegemony to a halt but we can see the delusions are being payed to persist.
The shear fervor in SB’s posts projects the desperation of empire…the shit show continues until it doesn’t and then SB will be out of work.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 6 2024 1:08 utc | 118

he shear fervor in SB’s posts projects the desperation of empire…the shit show continues until it doesn’t and then SB will be out of work.
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 6 2024 1:08 utc | 125
Seconded.

Posted by: Naive | May 6 2024 1:12 utc | 119

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 6 2024 0:57 utc | 119
Hm. I can only comment on the war that I see. I don’t recognize this other war you are writing about.

Posted by: a stone | May 6 2024 1:22 utc | 120

But the collection of cowards and traitors in the Kremlin didn’t have the balls. So here we are, on the precipice of total nuclear war…
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 6 2024 0:55 utc | 117
If we are to be fully coherent, an atmospheric nuclear test just outside of Berlin back in October 1989 was the missed red line …
Using a phrase the west loves “mistakes were made…”
Now the certainty about how things were managed since… I think I wrote earlier today that Putin acted racionally trying to be a German/EU partner, and there was limited time and resources . Could I do better I highly doubt it (to say the least) , could you do better, pretty sure you couldn’t navigate all the problems and choices.
But there’s always a critic with hindsight 20/20 and sure abut how the other side would react.
I might even suggest the traitors are even worse , not only not bombing deliveries from Poland but also letting the crossing of dnieper stand !
Or…. Maybe this is the chosen strategy, given constraints, that assures success while mitigating failure risks
Pleasant evening

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2024 1:23 utc | 121

Thus, the MA (muh attrition) crowd is trapped in the neurosis of sweet lemons. They too, want Russia to break through the front and secure vast swaths of land. Yet this is not happening, so they mentally transform a military quagmire into a wonderland of attrition.
Posted by: Napoleon | May 5 2024 16:39 utc | 27
——————————————————–
Meta analysis on meta?
Perhaps it is worthwhile to analyze what is achievable with the cards dealt. Attrition has been a preferred topic in these parts [please, correct me if I am wrong], and big arrow moves have been discounted in these parts for a while. Truth be told, they were discussion topic in time gone by.
Napoleon, you been giving any time to thinking this through or do you just prefer commentary on your observations, such as they are?

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 1:23 utc | 122

Putting Cokeman on a wanted list – I’m wondering if Russia is planning something to pre-empt the UK attack on the Kerch bridge.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 19:58 utc | 65
Good point. Perhaps its a veiled threat. “You blow that bridge and we’re gonna target you Z”
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 5 2024 20:06 utc | 66
YES!!! And/or after the 21st, RF considers Zelensky as just a Ukrainian civilian-military beligerent … so he’s fair game. Imo, any constitutionally illegitimate President has no public mandate for anything he says or does.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 1:29 utc | 123

Heck, Russia could even dress this up as a “peace-keeping mission”!
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 5 2024 17:32 utc | 41
—————————————————————-
Upvotes not viable on this platform, but a ‘High Five’ to you, Jeremy for that statement.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 1:29 utc | 124

Might be a tad hysterical but saw a “Redacted” clip whereby the pundit was quoting borrell, macron, as saying EU was at risk and Ukraine only has two weeks before collapse. Assuming the two weeks is the date zelenski is no longer president. FWIW
It is clear that EU/govt “leaders” are rattled.

Posted by: Taras 77 | May 6 2024 1:38 utc | 125

So what is Plan ‘C’?
Posted by: canuck | May 5 2024 16:33 utc | 25
————————————————–
Buying time until Biden gets reelected. All bets are off until then and any, and I mean ANY attempt to disenfranchise DJT is fair game.
We are talking US Presidential elections. Throwing up is for sissies.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 1:38 utc | 126

Theme for reflection, false dichotomies.
1. Nuclear deterrence is not about who shoots first , only not being defeated, ideally without ending in a nuclear wasteland . Managing escalation dominance is key.
2. The US knows it’s going down, just wished to put competitors in a worse situation, not be wiped out in a thermonuclear global war. Even full retard is not enough stupid to try a first strike. Even if partially successful id give 10 seconds before china adding everything it has to RFs counter strike (in that scenario they d be next)
3. SlowMO is what RF has to do until AFU’s defense lines fail and long pincers and strategic/operational movements can be done without inordinate casualties … or until ukraines regime collapses (whatever comes first)
4. There were better choices … says who? We barely know what happens, let alone the fundamentals leading to the strategy

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2024 1:43 utc | 127

Looks like the rats, Blackrock and Pimco, are leaving the sinking Ukrainian ship-they want Ukraine to begin repaying their debt with interest after a 2 year suspension
https://www.rt.com/business/597026-ukraine-lenders-debt-repayment/
Posted by: canuck | May 5 2024 23:57 utc | 106
Very interesting, thanks for that news.
If I were forced to guess, then based on little beyond just my bias, I’d say they are doing this now because they expect there to be a swarm of creditors clamoring to be at the head of the line as those behind them will eventually get little more than promises, and maybe a new note with an even later date for repayment.
And I guess a big question is how much of Ukraine’s debt, if any, has gotten the same kind of treatment that the Ninja mortgages of twenty years ago did, and got chopped up into little bits and bundled into financial instruments that countless investors now have as part of their portfolio, unbeknownst to them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis
In such a case, Ukraine wouldn’t be allowed to officially surrender or cut a deal until Wall Street was ready for it to do so, meaning they had excused themself from taking a haircut from the collapse of Ukraine’s government’s ability to issue payments on its debt.
I posted in another thread the implication that Russia, at the end of this war, could blow up Ukraine’s debt by cutting pieces off the country, incorporating a big chunk into the Russian Federation, and giving a new name and new government to what was left. Make a new currency, call it the “Vaffanculo”.

Posted by: Babel-17 | May 6 2024 1:44 utc | 128

@Naive / “It looks like French troops are taking part in the defense of Chasov Yar…”
Sacrebleu. With a Commander-in-chief who is stuffed on one end with cocaine and on another end by penis from Jean-Michel, what could possibly go wrong? Sic transit gloria mundi…

Posted by: Asian frog | May 6 2024 1:49 utc | 129

The shear fervor in SB’s posts projects the desperation of empire…the shit show continues until it doesn’t and then SB will be out of work.
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 6 2024 1:08 utc | 125
————————————————————-
Agree. SB looks like a collective and a recipient of US or NATO funding per contract. Desperation is a metric worth nothing. I am all for it, their desperation, that is.
A Montauk moment for the Americans here, familiar with Long Island, ‘The End is Near!’

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 1:53 utc | 130

Of course, maybe y’all don’t like math and prefer to consume virtual beers at the “bar”. Or follow mappers like Weeb or Southpoint who give you hopium flavored updates. I mean some people don’t like geography either and seem amazingly unaware of where Odessa is. Or the Dnieper River.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 5 2024 23:39 utc | 97
——————————————————-
Crossing the same point as before, I see. In the overall conduct of this enterprise geography/territory is your preferred metric.
In your mind, such as it is, have you considered other metrics, considered and acted upon by the participants? Asking for a friend.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | May 6 2024 2:00 utc | 131

Soldiers are foreign, officers are French.
Posted by: Naive | May 6 2024 0:30 utc | 111
Is it the Foreign Legion? The very definition of mercs. The French always love others doing their dying for them.

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 2:06 utc | 132

SB is back … I missed you, buddy.
With such a barrage of posts I’ll restrict my reply to your comment on US Treasury debt.
No one knows the date when it blows up but Mathematics dictate that it must. Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. And if you think they’ll just print fiat, well, as Morrisey said that goes to show how little you know.
What’s keeping the dollar propped up for now is the fact that the other world currencies with the exception of the Swiss Franc and the ruble are even more debased.
Japanese Yen? Hot garbage.
Euro? Slightly cooler garbage.
British Pound? I think I made my point.
My own prediction is that the Yen will blow first. No way to service all that debt with a declining population and demographic hell. When it blows they will puke up Treasury bonds to try and save it. They may end up dollarizing as a reset.
Same for Europe. But the rest of the world will want to stay clear of the blast radius using blockchain and crypto currencies. Better yet, gold or natural resource currencies will make a comeback.
The net effect for the West will be massive inflation coming back as raw credit emission is a net short on the currency.
It’s all mathematical and I won’t put a date to it but war is very inflationary so don’t think the West has unlimited time. It could all start to fall apart quickly and when it does you’ll get no warning.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 6 2024 2:19 utc | 133

@115 -121
Someone’s screaming for attention. Add in the “muh ……(insert)” crowd and “Russia has only occupied 0.00001% of area” and we have a full house.
Simplicius has a new piece out hinting at a treaty to hang on to just over 80% of the remaining country before losing larger chucks.
Russia’s new wanted list is interesting.
I wonder if exile Ukrainian politicians will run for office with the larger diaspora voting?

Posted by: Suresh | May 6 2024 2:19 utc | 134

he shear fervor in SB’s posts projects the desperation of empire…the shit show continues until it doesn’t and then SB will be out of work.
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 6 2024 1:08 utc | 125
Seconded.
Posted by: Naive | May 6 2024 1:12 utc | 126
I also fully concur.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 6 2024 2:22 utc | 135

139:
You mean the ones where both sides give estimates of casualties they inflict and refuse to share their own. And likely exaggerate the former and minimize the former? Or where bar drinkers seem to think that UFA takes inordinate losses when they are on the initiative and still also does so when RFA is pushing? (And NAFO is just as bad in reverse?)
No. It’s a crappy metric. No good data. And for that matter, if the “muh attrition” is really having an impact, we should see it in the lines fracturing. And a year later, neither one has.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 6 2024 3:19 utc | 136

139:
It’s just copium. Both sides do it. They would MUCH rather be celebrating gains. But since they don’t get them, they’re claiming sooper seekrit, 5D, “muh attrition” is part of some deep dark plan. (Or if NAFOs…they blah blah about meat waves.) It’s just cope mechanism for hoper/copers on either side.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 6 2024 3:22 utc | 137

Ukraine transcends stupidity, it’s stunningly weird. Deliver warm bodies to Krinky and pretend it’s a real offensive. It’s the battle of the Bulge nonsense complete with a lack of aircover and the lack of resources to make it more than a fantasy. And if anyone is crazy enough to persist in failed undersupplied offensives, it just accelerates movement towards final defeat.
The Rules? Russia mostly sits (until recently) and Ukraine delivers victims conveniently to be killed. That’s a stalemate is it? Rinse, repeat until Ukraine has no troops. If One side can just sit defensively – or occasionally retreat a little to encourage a sense of “winning” among deluded victims – and the other side must, must, must attack to regain territory, guess how that turns out? Hello?
Did Einstein define insanity as doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different result ? Zelensky defined the means of defeat and never changed. I think Putin and Co. can’t believe their luck to confront such predictability.

Posted by: Eighthman | May 6 2024 3:22 utc | 138

You certainly have, Julian. For instance, a massive big-arrow offensive will certainly cause much higher RUSSIAN casualties, and would have a high probability of FAILURE which would cause even more casualties and force a return to an attritional strategy. There is simply no evidence that big-arrow offensives ‘save lives’ as a general principle. And never mind the very real potential of the exhaustion of combat potential in a big-arrow offensive that doesn’t immediately achieve complete victory. That would be an invitation for NATO to get directly involved, and that’s not going to save any lives. Given the fact that the Ukraine has no authentic government but instead a clique of minions of the US/NATO, a ‘complete victory’ in a big-arrow offensive would mean leveling all of Ukraine’s major cities with civilians included. Not a great way to reduce the death count. And of course, direct NATO involvement against a depleted Russia, which was the desideratum of the neocons to begin with, would mean at the very least the nuclear destruction of the western world and Russia. Now, there’s a way to save lives.
Re: Posted by: Honzo | May 5 2024 15:19 utc | 15

You certainly have, Julian. For instance, a massive big-arrow offensive will certainly cause much higher RUSSIAN casualties, and would have a high probability of FAILURE which would cause even more casualties and force a return to an attritional strategy. There is simply no evidence that big-arrow offensives ‘save lives’ as a general principle. And never mind the very real potential of the exhaustion of combat potential in a big-arrow offensive that doesn’t immediately achieve complete victory. That would be an invitation for NATO to get directly involved, and that’s not going to save any lives. Given the fact that the Ukraine has no authentic government but instead a clique of minions of the US/NATO, a ‘complete victory’ in a big-arrow offensive would mean leveling all of Ukraine’s major cities with civilians included. Not a great way to reduce the death count. And of course, direct NATO involvement against a depleted Russia, which was the desideratum of the neocons to begin with, would mean at the very least the nuclear destruction of the western world and Russia. Now, there’s a way to save lives.

So your claim is that Russia’s Big Arrow offensive at the start of the war in February 2022 was a big big mistake and caused huge casualties?
Really?
Where is your evidence that there were Big Russian casualties during this Big Arrow offensive?
I happen to completely disagree with you on that.

Posted by: Julian | May 6 2024 3:51 utc | 139

Re. Z’s arrest warrant
Now that is obvious to any sane politician that Ukraine is losing the war it seems to me that Swiss “peace conference“ is the US Exit strategy that would put Ukraine in an advantageous position against Russia in the future peace talks. it would allow Ukraine to “propose compromise” by accepting current LOC as the demarcation line and put pressure on Russia to “meet them ”half way”.
Regardless of the fact that Russia is not participating in the “Swiss peace talks” it will put on the table an option to end the war and put significant international pressure on Russia to participate.
By putting Zelensky on the “wanted” list Russia is acting proactively rendering any such action invalid.
Poroshenko is there as possible substitution for Z. They threw a few generals on the list just to mask the real purpose of the arrest warrant.
Just my two cents.

Posted by: 2+2=5 | May 6 2024 3:59 utc | 140

McGregor, Ritter, Martyanov have consistently been wrong about how soon Russia would win, but let’s remember they say it with cocksurety! Confidence is everything in a pundit!

Posted by: Sparkles Blanchard | May 6 2024 4:05 utc | 141

So your claim is that Russia’s Big Arrow offensive at the start of the war in February 2022 was a big big mistake and caused huge casualties?
Really?
Where is your evidence that there were Big Russian casualties during this Big Arrow offensive?
I happen to completely disagree with you on that.
Posted by: Julian | May 6 2024 3:51 utc | 147

Ukraine was not as armed and as prepared at the start of the invasion. Use your noodle. Don’t force me to post!

Posted by: Sparkles Blanchard | May 6 2024 4:09 utc | 142

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 6 2024 1:16 utc |
“but what has been coming from the other direction in Russia’s case is mostly shiny trinkets, not essential irreplaceable, and certainly nothing that Russia could not have been making itself if it was actually run well), ”
**********
Most of what shadowbanned posts is much too deep or high (or wide) for my small mind, but the ‘shiny trinkets’ caught my eye.
Where would Russia get its washing machines and shovels from if it was not illegally selling cheap oil?

Posted by: General Factotum | May 6 2024 4:28 utc | 143

Ukrainian billionaires vacationing in France on their yachts
https://twitter.com/i/status/1787281800731005258

Posted by: ld | May 6 2024 4:36 utc | 144

The Paris 2024 Olympics begins in 80 days, 26 July to 11 August 2024.
Perhaps the few ineffective French troops in Ukraine are a setup for a major Black Flag event. Russia and Belarus aren’t invited to participate in the Paris Olympics.
Imagine if a huge terrorist action (or even missiles) causes significant damage and loss of life at the Paris Olympics, on television for the world to see. Now imagine that the munitions had Russian markings, or the terrorists dropped Russian passports (like they always seem to do), or a few were “caught” that confess to Russia planning the whole thing.
NATO is desperate. They need to mobilize Europe and regain worldwide opinion against Russia. The Paris Olympics is an outstanding opportunity… using the excuse that Russia was punishing France for having troops in Ukraine.
Just my 2-cents worth.

Posted by: Retaining_H2O | May 6 2024 4:36 utc | 145

Retaining_H2O | May 6 2024 4:36 utc | 153
Lol, not at any silliness in your idea … cos anything is feasible … but because you must lie awake at night planning special ops!

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 4:45 utc | 146

Posted by: General Factotum | May 6 2024 4:28 utc | 151

Where would Russia get its washing machines and shovels from if it was not illegally selling cheap oil?T

Illegally? According to what law and whos legal system?

Posted by: hopehely | May 6 2024 5:11 utc | 147

Posted by: hopehely | May 6 2024 5:11 utc | 155
Illegally? According to what law and whos legal system?
********
Bugger – now you’re asking really difficult questions.
Errr… The lures biased ordure?
You were meant to be laughing so much that you couldn’t type.
I promise I’ll try harder next time.

Posted by: General Factotum | May 6 2024 5:26 utc | 148

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 18:18 utc | 50
The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Fair enough.
Would you be willing to drink a pint of Tak-Beer with your friends? (link: https://t.me/tvjihad/14189)
Posted by: hopehely | May 5 2024 18:58 utc | 57

@57 hopely
Can you elaborate? I think the video on telegram implies something about Islamic militants but it’s not clear to me.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 19:16 utc | 60

—————————————
I believe @hopehely is ~attempting~ to continue the slander that all muslims are terrorists.
The guy in front shouts “Allahu Akbar!”,
followed the the soldiers in the rear responding together: “Allahu Akbar!”.
The guy in front then says, “Русские муджахиды лучше кричат “Аллаху Акбар!”, чем мусульмане.”
=
“Russian mujahideen shout ‘Allahu Akbar!’ better than Muslims.”
The term russkiy is used, which tells us that the soldiers are ethnic russians — not rossyane (citizens of Russia who might be of another ethnicity, such as Chechnians).
The russkiy soldiers are referred to as mujahideen, which literally means only that they are persons engaged in a struggle (be it emotional, spiritual, or bloody conflict).
The shout “Allahu Akbar” means literally, and only, that “God is Great”, which is a sentiment which may be shared by any and all believers in God. There is nothing intrinsically muslim about the statement.
That ethnic Russian soldiers are demonstrating their ability to shout “Allahu Akbar” as well as or better than their Muslim fellow-citizens of Russia, suggests to me that they are both expressing solidarity with their Muslim fellow-citizens of Russia, as well as friendly inter-unit rivalry.
The muslims should not be drinking (if they are religiously observant), but I’m going to take a wild guess that the non-muslim Russkiy-Russians probably know a thing or two about drinking.

Posted by: retroflecks | May 6 2024 5:38 utc | 149

NATO is losing the propaganda war in Ukraine. There isn’t much that they can do IN Ukraine to change the momentum. The obvious choice is to do something OUTSIDE of Ukraine.
There aren’t many opportunity within the next few months that would capture a worldwide viewing audience, immediately be
considered an affront to every nation on Earth and galvanize public opinion against the nation who sponsored the attack. Especially if the Olympics had to be placed in “lockdown”, events cancelled, NATO troops brought in to provide “srcurity”, etc… Main Stream Media could milk the “attack” for propaganda on international TV for two weeks. Happening in Paris, France, the media and “investigation” would be controlled. Russia wouldn’t be able to claim innocence , because the media narrative and grandstanding by French and NATO and EU officials will be too strong. Only after the Olympics would Russia be heard.
In my opinion, the Eiffel Tower would be an excellent target. It is symbolic, instantly recognized world wide, it’s metal, so the collapsed structure can be shown over and over again for weeks on TV… and it’s easily replaceable. The loss of the Eiffel Tower, with all signs pointing to Russian Government involvement, would galvanize EU support against Russia.

Posted by: Retaining_H20 | May 6 2024 5:45 utc | 150

Martyanov had a new post on how supposedly Nato had created a ‘red line’ for sending Nato troops in Ukraine. One of them was supposedly Russia breaking the front and Kiev asking for help. Exactly the same what Napoleon-delusional suggested.
Some suggested this is the loser standpoint. And usual huff-n-puff. Maybe acting tough for the domestic audience.
There were reports that 100 French foreign mercs were arleady spotted in Slavyansk, and struck there. Another report said French mercs were in Seversk area.
Either way, seems to be nothing new, at least 20k Nato mercs have already been in Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | May 6 2024 6:07 utc | 151

@ Retaining_H20 | May 6 2024 5:45 utc | 159 who is speculating on the next step in escalation of the Ukraine situation.
I agree that the Olympics in Paris is a potential time for a galvanizing attempt to start a war but I think that Xi’s visit in France that just started is another opportunity to cause geopolitical havoc.
I expect Xi sees this visit as a opportunity to encourage France to break with the EU to some degree but just like Marcon telling Xi not to support Russia in Ukraine, I expect Xi to be clear to Marcon and his string pullers about the effects of France and the EU isolating itself from China by sanctions and such.
I don’t see two separate groups of nations stopping trade with each other entirely and so the period of crisis we are going through should not break down all international connections …like the Intertubes….but we may see a period of outages that would likely cause quite the uproar.
I still think Ukraine is going down before May 20, when Z loses agency as the leader.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 6 2024 6:18 utc | 152

It is completely incomprehensible why Russia would further antagonize Europe against itself.
Posted by: ossi | May 5 2024 17:16 utc | 38

Europe’s problem with having gone over the top with “Russia Hate” PR.
No room for further escalation from antagonizing.
And think about it: How many “mishaps” in Russia in recent years are just that
and not US masterminded enemy action?
( final splash being the NS1/2 destruction )

Posted by: MAKK | May 6 2024 6:20 utc | 153

My goodness shadowbanned, you should be in the steno pool as a typist! 🙂 All of those back-to-back posts were in two minutes or less. It’s almost professional in its frequency. 😀 Have you considered commentary as your professional job? =) Maybe you type with a courtroom steno typewriter!
Anyway, seems like the SMO War is proceeding along as expected, now with added French victims to the rest of the NATO sheep-dipped victims who should know better. Well, if NATO wants to liquidate its army before the main event, who are we to tell the stupid they are doing it the wrong way? 😉
/cheep cheep

Posted by: titmouse | May 6 2024 6:23 utc | 154

“During the last six months of amazing advances and fracturing lines (if you follow the clickbait mappers), we have seen this progress by RFA in % Ukrainian territory. ……lots of little numbers ………”
Wrong metric afaics.
proper metric is “consumed” Ukraine available resources.
Attrition!
The current battlefield mechanics do not allow Blitzkrieg like progress.

Posted by: MAKK | May 6 2024 6:23 utc | 155

The advantage in bombs and artillery and their effectiveness is blatantly obvious, so endlessly coping about stalemate and the like is pure nonsense. Those coping also “accuse your enemies of what you’re guilty of” and endlessly pretend those who tell the obvious truth are coping. The last piece of the propaganda is pretending “sure, these evil governments slaughter millions without blinking an eye, but they would never have a shill post propaganda, that’s a step too far”.
Shills are easy to tell, because they endlessly post the same script over and over. Arguments and facts are simply ignored, because the only job they have is to deliver the script. This is why regardless of how the same side keeps losing every single battle, they keep on repeating the stalemate script and just change the X in “X has not fallen yet”. After it falls, it’s “but it didn’t fall in , so obviously the winners are losing!” Rinse and repeat.

Posted by: I | May 6 2024 6:52 utc | 156

…didn’t fall in [arbitrary time limit, always adjusted to be less than the actual time it took]

Posted by: I | May 6 2024 6:54 utc | 157

The.main dufference between Russia and Ukraine us that the Ukrainian population see this war as an existential one and the Russian does not. Many young Rissians (liberals) fled the country and they apit in Russia.
Ukraine can accept huge losses, Russia can not. This is an ideal situation for the West. The west wins the war just by printing money.

Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 7:05 utc | 158

About French troops
why all the excitement only TODAY ?
already on 03.05.2024 b posted about this “info”
Posted by: b | May 3 2024 16:53 utc | 54
“…Stephen Byren reports…”
he then incorporated this into the The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-128
repost my comment:

Posted by: b | May 3 2024 16:53 utc | 54 and all others

Stephen Byren reports:
France Sends Troops to Ukraine – Will the Deployment Trigger a Bigger War?
France has sent its first troops officially to Ukraine. They have been deployed in support of the Ukrainian 54th Independent Mechanized Brigade in Slavyansk. The French soldiers are drawn from France’s 3rd Infantry Regiment, which is one of the main elements of France’s Foreign Legion (Légion étrangère).

The initial group of French troops numbers around 100. This is just the first tranche of around 1,500 French Foreign Legionnaires scheduled to arrive in Ukraine.
These troops are being posted directly in a hot combat area and are intended to help the Ukrainians resist Russian advances in Donbas. The first 100 are artillery and surveillance specialists.
To eliminate those troops before additional ones get deployed would probably be the least violent way to end that nonsense.

How can anyone take this seriously?
they are already there ( in Slavyansk ) at least since 12.04.2024 🙂 ( edited )
avia.pro 20.03.2024
https://avia-pro.net/news/francuzskie-voyska-pribyli-na-territoriyu-ukrainy
French troops arrived on the territory of Ukraine
avia.pro 12.04.2024
https://avia-pro.net/news/v-slavyansk-perebrosheny-okolo-100-francuzskih-voennyh
About 100 French troops were deployed to Slavyansk
southfront 13.04.2024
French Military Deployed In Slavyansk, Donetsk People’s Republic – Report
https://southfront.press/french-military-deployed-in-slavyansk-donetsk-peoples-republic-report/
this Stephen Bryen is even to dense to include a proper link in his blog
https://weapons.substack.com/p/france-sends-troops-to-ukraine?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
thats his link ! — a href=”http://First units of the French Foreign Legion have been deployed to Slavyansk”
maybe you try a internet search with “France Troops “entering” Ukraine”
between 01.03-01.04.2024
Posted by: ghiwen | May 4 2024 16:02 utc | 222

and of course NO LINKS for rumors !!!

Posted by: ghiwen | May 6 2024 7:12 utc | 159

sob is really a son of a bitch. He is lying constantly and without shame.
Posted by: Naive | May 6 2024 1:06 utc | 122
He’s really got by the balls Naive …. LOL

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 6 2024 7:19 utc | 160

McGregor, Ritter, Martyanov have consistently been wrong about how soon Russia would win …
Posted by: Sparkles Blanchard | May 6 2024 4:05 utc | 149
—-
Dear Sparkles (no relation), previously known as Active Potatohead.
If you were able to read and think properly, you would be able to discern between what I actually said and the strawman you dumped upon my post.
***I said*** in #113, they clearly outlined the INTENDED PLANS exactly as Neo described, as per Washington and NATO proxy war doctrine, ie the Western playbook.
***You said*** above in your #149 that, they wrongly called the actual UNFOLDING OF said plans … with which I am in full agreement, but that’s a completely different issue to what I wrote.
Think it through, moron. The reason they projected the PLANS OF ACTION correctly but the OUTCOMES OF THOSE PLANS all wrong was precisely because they are Western military analysts and had no true understanding of the ways the Kremlin would COUNTER such plans. They kept calling for reactions like the West would have done. The SLOMO took them all completely by surprise, just as it did the NATO Generals.
So fuck off with your mindless strawman. It’s a pain having to waste my time to counter your moronic bullshit, but others here might be sufferring similar delusions, so maybe it’s worth it.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 7:19 utc | 161

To All,
Is there some pesticide we can use upon @vargas. Bar flea is a most perfect description. If anyone here is a persistent agency or AI troll, it’s this persona of a 14 year old moron. Nothing anyone says to him makes any difference. He is impervious to kindly re-education, general information, sarcasm, abuse, ignoring, everything.
If you are reading this vargas, please explain who/what/where you are. You seem to have the IQ, memory, reading skills, comprehension skills of a gnat.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 7:33 utc | 162

Playback speed at 1.25 makes him more tolerable.
Posted by: Cortes | May 5 2024 21:55 utc | 86
Nope. Nothing under x1.5 is acceptable or bearable!
I never go there now unless someone suggests a particular vid. even then, usually I avoid it.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 6 2024 7:36 utc | 163

Posted by: retroflecks | May 6 2024 5:38 utc | 158

The guy in front then says, “Русские муджахиды лучше кричат “Аллаху Акбар!”, чем мусульмане.”
=
“Russian mujahideen shout ‘Allahu Akbar!’ better than Muslims.”

Alaudinov did not say Русские муджахиды… (Russian mujahedeen)
He said: Вот у меня русские ребята… (My Russian boys…)
How did you hear mujahedeen only God knows.

Posted by: hopehely | May 6 2024 7:50 utc | 164

Perhaps the few ineffective French troops in Ukraine are a setup for a major Black Flag event. Russia and Belarus aren’t invited to participate in the Paris Olympics.
Imagine if a huge terrorist action (or even missiles) causes significant damage and loss of life at the Paris Olympics, on television for the world to see. Now imagine that the munitions had Russian markings, or the terrorists dropped Russian passports (like they always seem to do), or a few were “caught” that confess to Russia planning the whole thing.
NATO is desperate. They need to mobilize Europe and regain worldwide opinion against Russia. The Paris Olympics is an outstanding opportunity… using the excuse that Russia was punishing France for having troops in Ukraine.
Just my 2-cents worth.
Posted by: Retaining_H2O | May 6 2024 4:36 utc | 153
———————-
The world would react with a resounding yawn, if Putin was caught on camera personally planting a suitcase nuke in Paris. Before booking it back to Moscow.
The fact is most would assume the CW are somehow lying, because they are compulsive proven liars.
Lastly *again* Europe/NATO can’t mass mobilize, you need a basis to do so and a willing population. No-one is willing to die for these neo-s**t-lib regimes.
They can’t retain & properly equip the troops they have now FFS.

Posted by: Urban Fox | May 6 2024 7:56 utc | 165

@shadowbanned
There is no death penalty in Russia
Oh yes there is!
Last execution 1996.
At present there is a moratorium on the death penalty in Russia, but it is still a legal penalty.

Posted by: Moscow Exile | May 6 2024 7:58 utc | 166

fyi
https://twitter.com/BhadraPunchline/status/1785678172534747593
1/3 Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto: “Western politicians promised to supply Ukrainian army only with helmets and blankets, then came weapons, tanks, multiple launch systems, warplanes and now the French president is dreaming of sending ground troops to Ukraine.”
2/3 “Regrettably, this Western warmongering madness has gained a new dimension and grown into a nuclear war madness. We have already heard the French president’s statements, moreover, he have also heard the Polish president speaking about a potential nuclear war.
3/3 “Many European politicians are driving themselves to a military frenzy, saying that a nuclear strike may be delivered any moment. War madness has now emerged in the European political discourse.”

Posted by: michaelj72 | May 6 2024 7:59 utc | 167

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 15:48 utc | 19
Your hypothetical query isn’t worth the time and effort of 2000 words. So succinctly:
The scenario you’ve outlined is internally conflicted, however complex and involves several key factors that could influence the outcome of a conflict. Let’s compare it to the concept of SMO (Sequential Military Operations) attrition war.
In a traditional SMO attrition war, the focus is on wearing down the enemy’s military through a series of sequential operations. This typically involves a combination of military actions, including direct engagements, siege tactics, and strategic bombings, aimed at gradually reducing the enemy’s ability to fight back.
In your scenario, the conflict evolves from a conventional invasion into a prolonged guerrilla warfare situation, which adds a layer of complexity. The Ukrainian army’s shift to guerrilla tactics would indeed pose significant challenges for the Russian forces, as they would have to deal with a highly motivated and dispersed enemy, as well as potential disruptions to their supply lines.
NATO’s intervention and establishment of a cordon sanitaire further change the dynamics. This could lead to a prolonged standoff, with both sides engaging in asymmetric warfare. The disruption to Russia’s supply lines and the attrition of its forces over time could weaken its military capabilities, making it more vulnerable to a NATO counteroffensive.
Comparing this scenario to a traditional SMO attrition war, the key differences lie in the nature of the conflict (conventional vs. asymmetric), the involvement of external powers (NATO), and the strategic goals (containment vs. total defeat). These factors would all influence the strategies and tactics employed by both sides, as well as the eventual outcome of the conflict.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 6 2024 8:02 utc | 168

Where is your evidence that there were Big Russian casualties during this Big Arrow offensive?
I happen to completely disagree with you on that.
Posted by: Julian | May 6 2024 3:51 utc | 147
Go check the economist excess mortality. Feb 2022 had a rebound to 15.000 wit hardly 5.000 attributed to COVID . By my usual rules RF has lost up to 11.000 in that first week…

Posted by: Newbie | May 6 2024 8:07 utc | 169

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report #Summary for the Morning of 6 May 2024; pub. 06:51📍
⚓️Near #Crimea, for the first time in a long time, there are reports of the use of drone boats by the enemy. Up to 5 unmanned AFU boats were destroyed off the western coast, the target of which were military boats in one of the bays near the village of #Chernomorskoye. There were no casualties on our side.
🔹In the #Kherson direction, the RFAF are increasingly active in using FABs with UMPC on the enemy’s shore, destroying concentrations of enemy forces. The enemy is responding with artillery and many drones. Two cases of the AFU using ammunition that causes severe burns in the victims have been reported, after which the upper layers of the victims’ soft tissues are covered with a “wooden crust”. Military doctors argue about the nature of the burns, while fighters from the field call the ammunition “napalm”. The enemy maintains the presence of small groups of infantry in #Krynki.
🔹On the #Zaporozhye front, the RFAF continue their assault operations in #Rabotino, reporting dense enemy artillery work. Northwest of Verbovoye, the enemy on a IFV tried to deliver an AFU assault group, but was covered by our fire. Several enemy attacks were repelled.
🔹On the #Vremyevka ledge, fighting in #Urozhaynoye and at #Staromayorskoye, our troops are reported to have advanced 1km northwards east of #Urozhaynoye.
🔹In the #SouthDonetsk direction (or #Ugledar DIR), the RFAF are fighting in #Krasnogorovka near the industrial zone after planting a flag at the Refractory Plant. Fighting in #Georgiyevka and near the eastern outskirts of #Paraskoviyevka.
🔹In the #Pokrovskoye direction (west of #Avdeyevka), there is fighting in #Netaylovo. To the west of #Berdychi, the RFAF are conducting an offensive in the #Novoprovskoye area. After the success in #Arkhangelskoye, our troops are advancing towards #Kalinovo.
🎯 In the #Kharkov and #Sumy directions, there are constant strikes on enemy positions, and the X-51 Lancet UAV is increasingly being used to target AFU armoured vehicles. In the rear areas of these regions, enemy facilities are also under constant attack.
💥In the #Belgorod region, Stary Khutor in the Valuysky urban district was shelled, and #Shebekino was struck by an AFU UAV. The #Bryansk region reported shelling in the area of the #Lomakovka village in Starodubsky district.
💥To attack the peaceful population of the #DPR, the enemy used 75 different types of ammunition, and two civilians were wounded in the village of #Nikolayevka as a result of bombs dropped from an enemy drone.
🎬#Kherson direction – FAB with UMPC is a strange item.
There was Ukrop. Not anymore; reported @Razvedka_26St

https://t.me/two_majors/23502

Posted by: Down South | May 6 2024 8:14 utc | 170

Ha, I have to wonder at the superb timing of the upload of The Pentagon Wars to YouTube. Free to watch, 1080p, no ads, and with optional closed captions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pentagon_Wars#
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNpGBTU_jt4
Needless to say, there’s a message here about getting bang for the buck, something which Russia has been excelling at of late, and of the MIC screwing over everyone, something which it too has been excelling at of late.

Posted by: Babel-17 | May 6 2024 8:16 utc | 171

… It is not about making afu stronger, it is about killing as many ukrainians as possible. It is to empty the country.
Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 23:54 utc | 103

True enough, which suggested that the author of those remarks – German Green, Anton Hofreiter – isn’t in on the scam, so good for him.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 6 2024 8:17 utc | 172

It’s not clear how exactly the lines will collapse given that Ukraine is still plotting counteroffensives and is sending men to their deaths in their hundreds and thousands across the river, and is even trying to expand those operations.
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 6 2024 8:16 utc | 183
Planning and executing aren’t the same thing. Do you deny that Russia has a greater reserve of manpower than Ukraine does? If not, then Russia will win. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but sooner than later.

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 8:32 utc | 173

Re: Posted by: psychohistorian | May 6 2024 6:18 utc |

I still think Ukraine is going down before May 20, when Z loses agency as the leader.

A complete fantasy – you’re as bad as McGregor or Ritter!

Posted by: Julian | May 6 2024 8:37 utc | 174

This is not WW2, just as WW2 was not the Patriotic War of 1812. Though I suppose there may have been some people, in the USSR, who wondered why the Nazis had not already been driven out in the same six months that Napoleon was driven out. Those people would learn that 1942 was a different war.
The territory hosting the battles is the same (up to a point) but the conditions of war are very different.

Posted by: a stone | May 6 2024 8:40 utc | 175

Already it is reported that 100 bodybags returned .
Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 22:37 utc | 90
Until there’s a single photo available, these stories are simple meant to simulate a functioning smo to youtube viewers.
And according to Hakeem Jeffries, US is also going in Ukr ( cbsnews.com/news/democrat-leader-jeffries-pro-putin-faction-in-gop-delayed-ukraine-aid-60-minutes/ )
Macaron is simply starting it, getting others involved, as the owner of a few nukes which means he can’t lose no matter what he does.
Which made Russian general staff piss their pants as they always do, so they organized another “practice” today ( tass.com/defense/1783971 ), which no one cares about because their army was disabled by their own simulated mo and they’ve turned their own fleet in the most embarrassing fleet on the planet.

Posted by: rk | May 6 2024 8:43 utc | 176

Seven diarrhea attacs in a row from shitspammer … and then one more … sigh
On a lighter note it’s spring and it’s not going well for the US, CIA, M16 and NATO.

Posted by: Avtonom | May 6 2024 8:49 utc | 177

Either the lines are going to collapse and Russia will just walk to the Polish border, or this will take forever. It’s not clear how exactly the lines will collapse given that Ukraine is still plotting counteroffensives and is sending men to their deaths in their hundreds and thousands across the river, and is even trying to expand those operations. Which means they still have plenty of resources to burn.
Or they’re led by fools, or under the thumb of NATO-niks who do not care about their losses because it is not really their losses.

Posted by: Waldorf | May 6 2024 8:50 utc | 178

Posted by: hopehely | May 5 2024 18:58 utc | 57
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 18:18 utc | 50
The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Fair enough.
Would you be willing to drink a pint of Tak-Beer with your friends?
———————-
I think you are hopelessly uninformed. All forms of jihadists were created and used by the empire with an occasional blowback. So, they are friends of the empire.

Posted by: RB | May 6 2024 8:51 utc | 179

Chritoforou keeps it tight and still gets my views.
——————————
Tight? One can listen to him at 1.5x easily. He repeats everything twice or trice. That’s today’s internet for you. Things that can be explained in 5 minutes take 20.
Neapolitan’s interviews are still ok, though sometimes he talks to much.

Posted by: RB | May 6 2024 9:09 utc | 180

The bridges with the West must be irreversibly burnt with certain types of kinetic action.
Posted by: shadowbanned | May 6 2024 8:55 utc | 193
I think that’s in the process of happening bro, the kinetic action being the war. There’s no going back from this, assuming Russia wins. Not for several generations at least, after all these oligarchs are long dead. Russia can live without the West, the question is can the West live without Russia.

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 9:19 utc | 181

Russia’s response to Macron:
Russia testing nuclear weapons in response to West possibly sending troops to Ukraine
Russia’s tactical nuclear weapon drills are a response to statements from the West about sending troops to Ukraine, the Kremlin said on Monday.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cited comments by the French President Emmanuel Macron on possibly sending soldiers to Ukraine, as well as statements from the British and US Senate representatives.

Posted by: KingCobra | May 6 2024 9:36 utc | 182

Putting Cokeman on a wanted list – I’m wondering if Russia is planning something to pre-empt the UK attack on the Kerch bridge.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 19:58 utc | 65
Good point. Perhaps its a veiled threat. “You blow that bridge and we’re gonna target you Z”
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 5 2024 20:06 utc | 66
Now that Z, his predecessor and a few other high ranking cronies are wanted criminals it might be Russia’s way of specifically excluding them from any prospective future negotiations with Russia.
A kind of “we don’t negotiate with wanted criminals” card to be played when required.

Posted by: Glen Batterham | May 6 2024 9:43 utc | 183

Posted by: shadowbanned | May 6 2024 8:55 utc | 193
I think Russia can win the war they are currently fighting without triggering nuclear war. I’ve heard the arguments to the contrary but I don’t find them convincing.
If you want to speculate about other larger wars that might happen in Europe or about new theories of limited nuclear warfare, I’m sorry. It doesn’t interest me.

Posted by: a stone | May 6 2024 9:44 utc | 184

Russia testing nuclear weapons in response to West possibly sending troops to Ukraine
Posted by: KingCobra | May 6 2024 9:36 utc | 196
It’s quite foolish of Macron and the rest to say these things, since they have no force behind them. To “threaten” troops. I think they’re only saying such things now because they know Ukraine is on its last legs. The forthcoming aid is already spent and done, it will only be used to slow (slightly, if that) the Russian advance, and be completely gone by the Fall.
Their only hope after that is that somehow Russia will believe their words about troops coming, and will stop somewhere short of the Polish border. Kiev is now the red line, instead of the Dnieper, but that line will be pushed to Lviv as the Russians get closer, and then suddenly to the Polish/Romanian border.
The future NATO narrative: “If Russia touches one NATO member, we’ll…we’ll do something. Better stop, oh look, Russia stopped, yeah we won. Russia was defeated, because we deterred it from attacking a NATO state. Yeah, let’s celebrate. Who’s calling? Zelesnky? Never heard of the guy. From Ukraine? I don’t know what that is. Is it a TV show? Oh well, pour that champagne.”

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 9:49 utc | 185

If you are reading this vargas, please explain who/what/where you are. You seem to have the IQ, memory, reading skills, comprehension skills of a gnat.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 7:33 utc | 171
Well, I am an engineer, an old man. I would like Russia to win, but this kind of winning is strange to me. I am sending these “provocative” posts because almost everybody here is idolizing Russia. I want to remind everybody (with my posts) that repeating what Scott Ritter or Maryrtinov said is useless. Only what Dima says is reality because that is the situation on the front lines. And I want to provoke people to think more.
For example, this:
Associated Press
Russia announces nuclear weapon drills after angry exchange with senior Western officials
this means that the Russian army finally realized that it has to do something to induce a bit of fear in NATO, that otherwise Russia would fail. So that is all I was talking about.
And so many people died before they realized that.

Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 9:53 utc | 186

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 7:19 utc | 170
“Martynov, MacGregor and Ritter have been consistently wrong in predicting an eminent Russian victory from day one. BUT, once the war started they correctly identified that there was a war” – Jake “I’m very smart for an Aussie so if you don’t agree with me you are not Aussie smart” Blanchard

Posted by: Sparkles Blanchard | May 6 2024 9:56 utc | 187

If you are reading this vargas, please explain who/what/where you are. You seem to have the IQ, memory, reading skills, comprehension skills of a gnat.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 7:33 utc | 171
Well, I am an engineer, an old man. I would like Russia to win, but this kind of winning is strange to me. I am sending these “provocative” posts because almost everybody here is idolizing Russia. I want to remind everybody (with my posts) that repeating what Scott Ritter or Maryrtinov said is useless. Only what Dima says is reality because that is the situation on the front lines. And I want to provoke people to think more.
For example, this:
Associated Press
Russia announces nuclear weapon drills after angry exchange with senior Western officials
this means that the Russian army finally realized that it has to do something to induce a bit of fear in NATO, that otherwise Russia would fail. So that is all I was talking about.
And so many people died before they realized that.
Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 9:53 utc | 200
Vargas: hello and thank you for your post. With which I agree. Can I offer a little advice, though? Probably redundant but just maybe useful?
It is my experience that at the faintest whiff of ad hominem it is best to sever all communications immediately. The exchanges never improve, I have found, never rise to greater heights, never offer anything to anyone except a usually fairly shocking demonstration of just how low some people can go.
So it may seem a little severe, particularly perhaps to Americans who seem to have a fairly rough and ready literary culture, to bridle at the gratuitous, insulting and erroneous denigration of your qualities but I would strongly advise that you do so and drop all further interaction.
On a more pleasant note, kinda, but more adult serious and unpleasant, a different area altogether, have you seen Dimas latest which seems to suggest the Americans are surpassing themselves in total insanity. What credence do you give that? And do you not think it about time for the dumb ignorant western masses to wake up and speak up? Perhaps via modern technology to wit perhaps: dont-write-to-congress
And Dima’s latest: Dimas latest

Posted by: arthur brogard | May 6 2024 10:23 utc | 188

The United States has stepped up efforts to find an alternative to Zelenskyj as president of Ukraine,-Russian Foreign Intelligence Service
https://t.me/i20028843
Contacts have been established with Poroshenko and Klitschko, secret work is underway with Ermak, Zaluzhny, and former Rada spokesman Razumkov, the department reported

Posted by: 2+2=5 | May 6 2024 10:30 utc | 189

James M. | May 6 2024 9:49 utc | 199
There’s been a lot of talk in europe/uk lately about building up troops, weapons, ammo etc. and being vulnerable to attack. (Although they never say from whom) It’s as if they are wishing it upon themselves.

Posted by: KingCobra | May 6 2024 10:45 utc | 190

Russians are gonna hunt the French troops like there will be no tomorrow. The faster they send back all troops in body-bags the better. Russian can’t allow a single natostan force to settle , better making an example than a precedent… and Fast.
“Le petit roi” is having a bilateral meeting with Xi today and the first thing this asshole did was inviting Ursula … how do you say /facepalm in french ? Hé Merde ? Anyway, this is showing the world Macron is an insulting cunt who’s wasting China’s legendary patience… and Xi legendary patience about him might run dry sooner than most could have anticipated. First thing Macron’s party representative for the June EU election is lecturing Xi about “the Ouighours “””genocide”””. She had no word for the Palestinians and plead Bibi is just defending himself … was it an attempt at convincing Xi Ursulla is not the dumbest gal in the lot ?
French might have a presidential election before 2027 at this pace.

Posted by: Savonarole | May 6 2024 10:46 utc | 191

Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 9:53 utc | 200
“Only what Dima says is reality because that is the situation on the front lines. And I want to provoke people to think more”.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 10:51 utc | 192

Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 9:53 utc | 200
That was the most coherent post I’ve ever seen from you. If you always posted that way you’d probably get more favorable responses. Although Wanker Blanchard is a “special” case. Take Arthur’s advice and don’t respond anymore.
Posted by: arthur brogard | May 6 2024 10:23 utc | 202
True, us Americans are rough and ready, with guns ablazin (in some cases literally), in our um…literary… interactions.
As for what Dina said about America potentially sending troops to Ukraine, it was from a comment made by the minority leader in the House of Representatives. He has basically no authority, other than leading the opposition. I suspect it’s just electioneering and campaign posturing. “I have no power to send troops but I’ll send troops by golly. I’ll show Putin how tough I am… vote for me.”

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 10:57 utc | 193

This means that the Russian army finally realized that it has to do something to induce a bit of fear in NATO, that otherwise Russia would fail. So that is all I was talking about.
And so many people died before they realized that.
Posted by: vargas | May 6 2024 9:53 utc | 200

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 10:58 utc | 194

This new SBonslaught – is it a way to celebrate Victory Day? In the wake of new atrocities to incite painful reactions like should have happened before! presidential elections in Russia?
If Russia is doing it – the SMO – the way it does, then that’s the only way. It wasn’t ready, it most certainly would have prefered the responsible, civilized or “polite” way. That was not about to happen.
And as some say, quite often Russia wins not because not because of but in despite of something. Russia was losing until the SMO started… Now the West in confused, it has gained everything it ever wanted – and, oh, how beautiful are the leaves in the Indian Summer.

Posted by: js | May 6 2024 11:05 utc | 195

Posted by: KingCobra | May 6 2024 10:45 utc | 204
A lot of the rhetoric they use revolves around “the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming.” This could be just propaganda, or they do have some deep-rooted (irrational) fear that it really could happen. That the Russians will invade. But, you’re right, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and spirals.
That spiral is called in most international relations texts, and I refer to it as well as, the security dilemma. Although that phrase apparently triggers some posters here, so shhh, let’s keep it quiet.

Posted by: James M. | May 6 2024 11:10 utc | 196

The United States has stepped up efforts to find an alternative to Zelenskyj as president of Ukraine,-Russian Foreign Intelligence Service
Posted by: 2+2=5 | May 6 2024 10:30 utc | 203
—-
I find it laughable that America thinks it can “find a new President for Ukraine”. Electing a President includes a small matter of asking the populous who they want! They’d have to remove the current martial law; arrange an election; get several other candidates together for a field; get >50% support for their man — in the military, plus in the parliament, plus in the media, plus East plus West Ukraine, plus sorting out what to do with the 5 million ex-pat voters currently in the EU!
Lol. I can’t see any election, any new President happening. The country deserves to be in a political void until RF gives it peace again.
As for Poroshenko, I don’t believe the Ukies would want him back again. He was the most corrupt, Russophobic warmonger since independence. Surely not.
Klitchko, meh, might be popular in Kiev. But elsewhere? Dunno.
Timoshenko? Right wing fascist.
Arestovich? Psychopath.
All the other political animals are either Zelensky’s current accomplice henchmen, or have been banished or disgraced by Zelensky.
The country is a toilet — a function of Zelensky’s making.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 11:29 utc | 197

@Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 11:29 utc | 211

I find it laughable that America thinks it can “find a new President for Ukraine”

It looks to me that you didn’t have time to listen what Victoria “fuck EU” Nuland had to say about Ukrainian elections.

Posted by: 2+2=5 | May 6 2024 11:41 utc | 198

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 11:29 utc | 211
At this point ‘finding’ a new president for Ukraine is arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
I foresee the population of Ukraine scattering between the west and east. As goes the population, so goes the country. Every US/UK Ze-team policy contributes to the breakup of Ukraine.
Most likely Nato is freaking out, talking about sending troops publicly, because they foresee the country breaking up. This might be a latch ditch effort to attempt to bluff Russians so Nato can occupy Odessa and other places, whatever they can and install a military dictatorship puppet to control those places FUKUS would like to have from Ukraine.
But most likely the optimal solution for everyone (except Nato) is Hungary and Poland grab parts of the west, Russia take the coast and Odessa, and Zaporozhye. A rump state is left in the middle parts including Kiev, maybe Kharkov, which at the minimum is not under Nato control.
Barring this sort of scenario, I expect the country will simply become a gray area and evaporate. Nato/Kiev control will hence forward be based on Nato occupation troops. And Nato occupation troops have no mandate or protection in Ukraine. We all know what happens to illegal occupation troops.

Posted by: unimperator | May 6 2024 11:43 utc | 199

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 6 2024 10:58 utc | 208
Oh come on! You are constantly bloviating in big quantities. Do you think you have a special insight? You know nothing about Russia or Ukraine. And people here tolerate you. You are so full of yourself. This last comment is totally meaningless.

Posted by: RB | May 6 2024 11:44 utc | 200