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May 5, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-129
Comments
(Reposted from previous Ukraine thread).
Re: Posted by: William Gruff | May 5 2024 13:14 utc | 299
Really? It is an objective fact that you Nazis are losing in the Ukraine. By any measure you choose, whether it is body count, economic degradation, or even territorial gains as you simple minded types can only grasp, you are losing. You are the one who comes to the bar to rant impotently against that reality, so who is delusional?
Your delusions are so pathetically stupid that you think terrorist strikes by your “team” against civilians count for you instead of against you. You are seriously gone, dude (apologies for assuming your gender there… Julie-Ann can be biologically male in Europe, right?).
Ha, maybe this is more projection.
Do you suffer from cognitive dissonance?
How can you hold in your mind the theory that an ATTRITION STRATEGY will cause less death?!?
Utterly bizarre.
The very point of an ATTRITION STRATEGY is to destroy and kill as many of the opposition’s troops/people as possible!
A swift end to the conflict – ie, overwhelming territorial gains – will cause less deaths than endless war via attrition.
The fact you can’t grasp this is frankly astonishing.
And yes, you’ve made several erroneous assumptions in your post! lol
Posted by: Julian | May 5 2024 14:02 utc | 1
We have often complained about nato ISR superiority in Ukraine , and even discussed that the RF Kanopus-V can only assure live imaging of a 20km strip every 4 hours.
But what are friends for? Funny that I found this article after reading someone proposing the Pepe f35/nuke source could be china.
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/05/new-chinese-satellites-ending-us-monopoly-ability-track-and-hit-long-distance-targets/396272/?oref=d1-homepage-top-story
Posted by: Newbie | May 5 2024 14:03 utc | 2
Today’s Russian Defence Ministry report: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12511702@egNews
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (5 May 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
Units of the Zapad Group of Forces improved the situation along the front line, as well as inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 14th and 30th mechanised brigades near Sinkovka (Kharkov region) and Novosadovoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Six attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 77th Airmobile Brigade and 1st Ukrainian National Guard Brigade were repelled near Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 305 Ukrainian troops and two armoured personnel carriers.
In the course of counter-battery warfare, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, four 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and one 105-mm U.S.-made M119 howitzer were neutralised.
Units of the Yug Group of Forces captured more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 22nd, 93rd mechanised brigades, 5th, 92th assault brigades, and 56th Motorised Infantry Brigade near Andreyevka, Orekhovo-Vasilyevka, Grigorovka, Kleshcheyevka, and Krasnoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 290 Ukrainian troops, two motor vehicles, one 155-mm U.S.-made M777 howitzer, three 122-mm D-30 howitzers, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun.
Units of the Tsentr Group of Forces liberated Ocheretino (Donetsk People’s Republic), improved the tactical situation, and inflicted losses on units of the AFU 24th and 115th mechanised brigades near Arkhangelskoye and Novgorodskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Eight counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment, 47th Mechanised Brigade, 142nd, 143rd infantry brigades, and 68th Jaeger Brigade were repelled near Novokalinovo, Ocheretino, Solovyovo, Berdichi, Semyonovka, and Netaylovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 380 Ukrainian troops, one U.S.-made Abrams tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, including one U.S.-made Bradley, one armoured fighting vehicle, and three pickup trucks.
In the course of counter-battery warfare, one 155-mm U.S.-made M777 howitzer, one 155-mm Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery system, one 105-mm U.S.-made M102 light howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one 122-mm howitzer were neutralised.
Units of the Vostok Group of Forces took more advantageous lines, as well as inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade and 108th Territorial Defence Brigade near Urozhaynoye and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 135 Ukrainian troops, three pickup trucks, one 155-mm UK-made FH-70 howitzer, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, and one 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun.
Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware clusters of the AFU 44th Artillery Brigade, 35th Marines Brigade, and 121st Territorial Defence Brigade near Pavlovka (Zaporozhye region), Ivanovka, Mikhailovka, and Zolotaya Balka (Kherson region).
One counter-attack launched by an assault detachment of the AFU 118th Mechanised Brigade was repelled north of Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 45 Ukrainian troops, one 155-mm U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one 155-mm U.S.-made M777 howitzer, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Groups of Forces of the Russian Federation wiped out one western-made missile weaponry depot near Odessa, as well as one P-19 radar station for detecting and tracking air targets near Kozytovka (Kharkov region).
One fuel depot of the AFU 218th Joint Logistic Centre, workshops of missile fuel production facilities, weaponry for unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed, as well as enemy manpower and military hardware was engaged in 108 areas.
Air defence units shot down 20 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and two French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs.
In total, 593 airplanes, 270 helicopters, 23,742 unmanned aerial vehicles, 512 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,917 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,279 combat vehicles of multiple rocket launcher systems, 9,314 field artillery guns and mortars, and 21,479 special military vehicles have been neutralised since the beginning of the special military operation.
The attrition continues…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 5 2024 14:09 utc | 3
Simplicious has excellent writing about the emerging attrition strategy. China is probably taking notes although how they apply that to Taiwan is hard to say.
The West is deeply vulnerable to this approach. Consumerism, wokeness, being gender fluid tend to get in the way. Vietnam, Afghanistan, Algeria…..the West has never solved the problem of being endlessly drained. Israel’s solution is genocide and expulsion.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 5 2024 14:16 utc | 4
The more the western media tries to vilify Mr. Putin, the better his worldwide image becomes. It was not his choice to go to war with Ukraine, he tried to avoid it, i.e., Minsk accords, but western “leaders”, by their own admission, nefariously subverted those agreements. Putin is a man of his word and the whole world sees it. https://folkpotpourri.com/why-the-world-should-recognize-great-men/
Posted by: Ozark Grandpa | May 5 2024 14:23 utc | 5
True knowledge exists in knowing that you know nothing. – Old Dead Guy
But more fun:
The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt. — Also Old Dead Guy
Maybe that is the problem – all the smart people are dead?
Posted by: jared | May 5 2024 14:32 utc | 6
Ukraine Weekly Update, 3rd May 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-210
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | May 5 2024 14:34 utc | 7
Re: Julian | 1
How can you hold in your mind the theory that an ATTRITION STRATEGY will cause less death?!?
Utterly bizarre.
The very point of an ATTRITION STRATEGY is to destroy and kill as many of the opposition’s troops/people as possible!
________________________________________________
The attrition strategy that has been articulated and put into practice is the result of the conditions of this example and instance of modern warfare. The alternative is what NATO normally employs and this is failing in the current conflict as it is short-sighted, impulsive, and directed toward an illusory quick, ostentatious, and artificial appearance of a win.
One humanitarian perspective is that if there is to be a war, to fight it once and finish it completely. Many recent wars fought by NATO “end” by the departure of the agressor from the lack of winning after it has gone on too long and is clearly not sustainable. The conflicts themselves and the conditions in which they arise, remain unexamined and unaddressed. Many of these seem to relate to motives which do not originate from a perpsective of mutual respect and peacefullness but from those of conquest, plunder, extraction, and servicing an insatiable MIC which is ossified and is largely in the business of kickbacks and financialization as their product; rather than practical arms that work.
The terms and extent of this conflict are established by the agressor which is US/NATO/Ukraine/etc,… If the argument is that is is more humane to avoid death and harm to very many people, and I agree, then perhaps this sentiment is best directed to the agressors who are using the hands of others on the lands of others in an attempt to perhaps ultimately create another Bolshevik Revolution (60M died according to estimates) and parasitize Russia endlessly – rather than generate real value themselves to share with the world.
Perhaps the successful defense and use of attritional strategy is actually the means by which greater deaths and WWIII will be avoided. Perhaps this is the humanitarian path.
Posted by: R-NotBot_3000 | May 5 2024 14:56 utc | 8
You have to wonder if any of today’s military geniuses in command ever played Risk (5 years) Avalon-Hill (Gettysburg, etc. 6 years) Battle Plan (Flying Buffalo PBM 7 years) or Age of Empires/Kings (10 years).
So much stupidity in high places.
If you can’t take out those trebuchets, you’re toast.
Posted by: Bagration | May 5 2024 14:59 utc | 9
The very point of an ATTRITION STRATEGY is to destroy and kill as many of the opposition’s troops/people as possible!
A swift end to the conflict – ie, overwhelming territorial gains – will cause less deaths than endless war via attrition.
The fact you can’t grasp this is frankly astonishing.
And yes, you’ve made several erroneous assumptions in your post! lol
Posted by: Julian | May 5 2024 14:02 utc | 1
Hmmm….the old Charge of the Light Brigade, over and over and over. Rapid, foolish attacking does not guarantee less death. That is only the toss of a coin.
The REAL Attrition Strategy is the bleeding out of the U.S. Treasury- a task fully supported by U.S. Political Belligerence, coupled with Historic and Economic Ignorance:
“more than $21 trillion of Treasury paper has been refinanced in the under one-year T-bill market” (Stockman article, ZH). In other words more than 60% of all U.S. Debt must be rolled over (sold to increasingly reluctant buyers) in the next 12 months.
If I didn’t know better, I would have to think that China and Russia have infiltrated all of DC, including, Congress, the Presidency, the Treasury and the Fed, and have encouraged them to bet the farm on one, last, toss of the dice.
Posted by: kupkee | May 5 2024 15:02 utc | 10
The point of an attrition strategy is to win the war, surely. The Russian army is not attriting the Ukrainian civilian population by for example besieging population centers, it is attriting the Ukrainian military force by reducing them along a long, almost entirely remote line of contact. The Ukrainian forces have agency here, they have room to maneuver to more defensive positions or to take other strategies to reduce attrition such as, for example, a conditional surrender. I hear that Ukraine’s opportunity for defensive maneuver may have been lost now that the spring mud is hardening. That is Ukraine’s dilemma to solve, militarily or politically.
Attrition induces exhaustion. Exhaustion is the gradual hollowing out of a belligerent’s willingness to fight. I see that Russia’s pace of war is crafted to exhaust Ukrainian state partisanship amongst the population in Kiev’s territory and, as important, amongst the NATO belligerents.
Exhaustion is visible even in online commentary in Western press and in discussion forums like this one.
Posted by: a stone | May 5 2024 15:06 utc | 11
Posted by: Josef Schweik | May 5 2024 12:51 utc | 297
From last thread re. Chasov Yar.
Chasov Yar is Avdeevka on steroids, and Avdeevkas was Bakhmut on steroids.
Per Marat’s analysis, the important difference between Avdeevka and Chasov Yar is the width of the front. Chasov Yar is much narrower.
Afu is rushing all reserves into Chasov Yar to the point of over population. There they shall absorb FABs and TOS within a small oversaturated area ‘to buy time’ , yet another disaster in the making.
Posted by: unimperator | May 5 2024 15:07 utc | 12
“The REAL Attrition Strategy is the bleeding out of the U.S. Treasury- a task fully supported by U.S. Political Belligerence, coupled with Historic and Economic Ignorance:”
Posted by: kupkee | May 5 2024 15:02 utc | 10
Bingo!!
You hit the nail right on its head.
The above is the major reason Russia is slow mowing the SMO.
And yes, you’ve made several erroneous assumptions in your post! lol
Posted by: Julian | May 5 2024 14:02 utc | 1
You certainly have, Julian. For instance, a massive big-arrow offensive will certainly cause much higher RUSSIAN casualties, and would have a high probability of FAILURE which would cause even more casualties and force a return to an attritional strategy. There is simply no evidence that big-arrow offensives ‘save lives’ as a general principle. And never mind the very real potential of the exhaustion of combat potential in a big-arrow offensive that doesn’t immediately achieve complete victory. That would be an invitation for NATO to get directly involved, and that’s not going to save any lives. Given the fact that the Ukraine has no authentic government but instead a clique of minions of the US/NATO, a ‘complete victory’ in a big-arrow offensive would mean leveling all of Ukraine’s major cities with civilians included. Not a great way to reduce the death count. And of course, direct NATO involvement against a depleted Russia, which was the desideratum of the neocons to begin with, would mean at the very least the nuclear destruction of the western world and Russia. Now, there’s a way to save lives.
Posted by: Honzo | May 5 2024 15:19 utc | 15
The campaign to burn Georgia on the same crucible roasting Ukraine kicks into high gear. Scott Ritter’s reporting about this might be the best work he’s done:
https://scottritter.substack.com/p/dancing-the-khorumi-on-rustaveli
Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 5 2024 15:23 utc | 16
Posted by: Bagration | May 5 2024 14:59 utc | 9
even starcraft or warcraft would have been something…
Posted by: Macpott | May 5 2024 15:42 utc | 17
Of course the corrupt ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin, but not one for Netanyahu, do western bodies such as the ICC, ICJ UN etc have any credibility left I think not.
“Russia has added Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to its wanted criminal list, Russian news agencies reported on Saturday.
The Russian Interior Ministry said that a case had been opened against Zelensky
“under an article of the criminal code” but provided no details about the charges leveled against Zelensky.
Zelensky’s predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, was also featured on the ministry’s list of people wanted.
The commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, Oleksandr Pavlyuk, was also on the list.
Mediazona, a Russian news outlet, said Saturday that both Zelensky and Poroshenko had been listed since at least late February.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 5 2024 15:43 utc | 18
Let’s run a simulation of a full bore Russian invasion Feb 2022.
Instead of a 150 thousand soldiers Russia uses a million, it strips bare it other frontiers and goes all in.
It gets into Kiev, wrecks a bunch of stuff but wins. It’s losses are heavy but it’s across the dnieper and rolls towards lvov.
Great right? Russia probably loses 20 to 30 percent of its attacking force bur has Ukraine by the nuts and it should be all settled.
Or is it? In this scenario Russian forces approaching Poland and Romania via Odessas sparks direct Nato intervention. The rush left behind hundreds of thousands of motivated Ukrainian soldiers with millions of various weapons hiding in Ukraines vast territory.
Nato establishes a Cordon sanitaire protecting lvov and Odessa and a dmz is established. Ukraine doesn’t surrender and a state of permanent war is established between ukraine and russia.
While this is going on the Ukrainian army goes guerilla with devastating effect. Russian supply line are long and disrupted, its army being heavily dependent on trains. Sabotage is deadly and russia lashes out further alienating the Ukrainian population.
It’s forward forces are weakened over the ensuring next few years. During this time Nato rearms seriously its public scared by Russia troops swarming over blowing things up next to the European “garden”
There are no debates about it and it proceeds well.
As russia strength atrophies and the afghanistan scenario Nato envisioned for them comes to fruition Nato strikes with the free Ukrainian army from behind the cordon sanitaire.
Russia is rolled up its army is destroyed, having been weakened already.
Nato goes to the 1991 borders and russia goes nuclear.
Now how does the SMO attrition war compare?
2000 word essay minimum instant fail if you use chatgpt.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 15:48 utc | 19
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 15:48 utc | 19
I believe the MSM talking points of Ukraine (Russia lost 600k people, Ukraine guerrilla force is effective, etc.) are pre-written scripts that Nato ‘thought’ that would happen. They expected Russia to absorb half of Ukraine in a short amount of time with a ‘million troops’ and Nato built the entire expectation and strategy on its ‘guerrilla war’ which is upon what 80 % or more training was spent.
Instead it did not happen. They got tired of waiting for ‘guerrilla war’ and already sent all the Nato trained ‘guerrillas’ to front trenches, where artillery determined the game until late 2023. Russian counter-artillery campaign was dedicated and effective since early 2023, as the front more or less stabilized. Now FPV drones are acting as a supplement to artillery and very effective.
So Nato media had pre-written their stories even before SMO began and were presenting stories on auto-pilot like ‘they would have liked to happen’. But things didn’t go as they hoped or expected.
Now lets hope the nazi regime gets finished off for good, or isolated into western parts. The best case would be Poland and Hungary absorbing a part of the west, and let them keep the problem.
Posted by: unimperator | May 5 2024 15:57 utc | 20
@ Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 5 2024 15:23 utc | 16
Interesting.
It seems a case of: In order the save democracy, thet must destroy democracy.
It seems very difficult for a smaller, not affluent country to remain sovereign, not aligned. Perhaps more so the “democracy”s. Its as if these countries are being harvested as green field opportunities for the banking industry – so they will be kept weak and needy until an opportunity for development should arise – maybe never. Its like a wild-fire of globalisation, consuming everything. I imagine that not everything can be saved and that the only viable option is to let it burn itself -out.
Same as Moldova, it seems. Then Kazakstan, etc.
Posted by: jared | May 5 2024 16:07 utc | 21
Posted by: kupkee | May 5 2024 15:02 utc | 10
Posted by: a stone | May 5 2024 15:06 utc | 11
Posted by: Honzo | May 5 2024 15:19 utc | 15
All excellent posts, thanks. Now if only the likes of @Julian, @rk, @Napoleon, @Anonymous (aka Berdychi Bob), and @shadowbanned were capable of reading and comprehending all the points so eloquently made.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 15:48 utc | 19
To a great extent I think you’ve probably outlined what the NATO party-planners had in mind; a swift and initially overwhelming Russian “victory” followed by tonnes of armaments being shipped from the West to the “plucky Ukrainian resistance fighters™”. That was the NATO Plan A, it’s obvious they didn’t have a Plan B and are now flummoxed.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 5 2024 16:09 utc | 22
@22 Jeremy rhyming
Re: plan B
Plan B was sanctions
Plan C is 2023 counter offensive
Plan D is limp it along and make it Trumps problem and turn lemons into lemonade by making ukraines loss his responsibility.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 16:18 utc | 23
The Empire will fall when the money runs out. Cash flow, baby. Slowly at first; then all at once. Downfall.
Posted by: Bagration | May 5 2024 16:30 utc | 24
Posted by: kupkee | May 5 2024 15:02 utc | 10
Posted by: a stone | May 5 2024 15:06 utc | 11
Posted by: Honzo | May 5 2024 15:19 utc | 15
“All excellent posts, thanks. Now if only the likes of @Julian, @rk, @Napoleon, @Anonymous (aka Berdychi Bob), and @shadowbanned were capable of reading and comprehending all the points so eloquently made.”
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 15:48 utc | 19
“To a great extent I think you’ve probably outlined what the NATO party-planners had in mind; a swift and initially overwhelming Russian “victory” followed by tonnes of armaments being shipped from the West to the “plucky Ukrainian resistance fighters™”. That was the NATO Plan A, it’s obvious they didn’t have a Plan B and are now flummoxed.”
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 5 2024 16:09 utc | 22
I don’t believe that the NATO ‘party planners’ had your Plan ‘A’ in mind.
I am confident that the Empire believed that ‘stealing’ $300 billion of Russia’s assets along with extensive sanctions would derail the Russian economy which would derail then Russian politics then and regime change or at least a compromise in the Empire’s favour.
Plan ‘A’ has been demolished; Plan ‘B’ is sending ‘tonnes of armaments” to Ukraine in a Hail Mary attempt to force a stalemate on the SMO and lead to Russia coming to the negotiating table.
Plan ‘B’ has been demolished as well..
So what is Plan ‘C’?
Rounding up Latvian, Polack and Romanian armed forces to reinforce Ukraine?
Putting up enough materiel and capital to keep Ukraine militarily ‘competitive’ until the US elections in November?
Trying to separate China and Russia s economically-in the past two weeks both Blinken and fatso Yellin have gone beg bowling to Xi and that ill advised gambit failed and they respectively fell on their respective swords on that issue.
Another fake virus outbreak?
Nuclear war?
unimperator @15:07
Chasov Yar is the linchpin. Central. By stacking all those forces into that maelstrom, the Ukraine military is essentially committing suicide. Their reasoning is not incorrect. However, the multidimensional capacity of the RU forces is basically overwhelming.
From the poet: “The center cannot hold, mere anarchy is loosed upon the land”. What happened when the Little Dutch Boy stuck his finger in the Dyke? She beat the shit outta him. The metaphor is apt. Ultimate collapse of the defenses of Chasov Yar is not only inevitable…it is also immanent.
“Apres Moi, le Deluge”…Louis Quatorze…Le Grand Roi de la France.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 5 2024 16:34 utc | 26
Their really is no “muh attrition” crowd here. Who are we kidding?
If Russia broke through Ukrainian lines tomorrow and raced towards the Dnipro, Odessa, the attrition-happy barflies would be ecstatic. Putin would be on cloud nine.
Thus, the MA (muh attrition) crowd is trapped in the neurosis of sweet lemons. They too, want Russia to break through the front and secure vast swaths of land. Yet this is not happening, so they mentally transform a military quagmire into a wonderland of attrition.
Posted by: Napoleon | May 5 2024 16:39 utc | 27
RepublicofScotland@15:43
All those international agencies, beginning with the Security Council of the UN can be regarded as historically doomed. The Second and Third Worlds are thoroughly disenchanted with those iterations which are totally dominated by the Collective Wa$te.
It is not illogical to assume that within a matter of not many years, that the majority of the planet’s nations will dissolve their ties with the Rottenfeller-granted UN superstructure in Manhattan and beyond the physical edifice, the entire agglomeration of control mechanisms. A new iteration of Global interaction will be developed. Logical location might be India, as it centers between the decaying Western “powers” and the rapid ascension of East Asia.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 5 2024 16:43 utc | 28
History Legends:
Russian Forces Heading Towards Operational Victory in Donbas
The Russian breakthrough in Ocheretyne continues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYaK4dB4zK8
Posted by: unimperator | May 5 2024 16:45 utc | 29
France has sent its first combat troops to the Ukrainian front
A renowned US expert has stated in an article that France has sent the first of 1,500 soldiers from the French armed forces to the front in Donbass to fight against Russia
.
Stephen Bryen is a former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, a leading expert on security strategy and technology, and he writes for Asia Times, American Thinker, Epoch Times, Newsweek, Washington Times, the Jewish Policy Center, and others. If you google his name, you’ll find him as an author on the pages of many established US think tanks, so he’s not just any weirdo.
Bryen has now published an article in which he claims that France has already sent the first 150 of a planned 1,500 French Foreign Legion soldiers to Donbass to fight on the front against Russia. Bryen does not cite a source for his claim, but as a respected expert he is unlikely to have made it up, I found his article published in the Asia Times interesting enough to translate.
.
https://anti-spiegel.ru/2024/frankreich-hat-erste-kampftruppen-an-die-ukrainische-front-geschickt/
Posted by: ossi | May 5 2024 16:46 utc | 30
@unimperator | May 5 2024 15:57 utc | 20
The idea that a pre-written script is followed is quite plausible. Paired with the strange inability to make rational adjustments by the west (controlling Ukraine) it seems likely a correct explanation.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 5 2024 16:56 utc | 31
“Bryen has now published an article in which he claims that France has already sent the first 150 of a planned 1,500 French Foreign Legion soldiers to Donbass to fight on the front against Russia. Bryen does not cite a source for his claim, but as a respected expert he is unlikely to have made it up, I found his article published in the Asia Times interesting enough to translate.
.
https://anti-spiegel.ru/2024/frankreich-hat-erste-kampftruppen-an-die-ukrainische-front-geschickt/“
Posted by: ossi | May 5 2024 16:46 utc | 30
Bringing ‘fifteen hundred’ French soldiers to the SMO is akin to brining a spoon to a gunfight.
If the the French could organize say 8 divisions (roughly 100,000 soldiers) instead of a week brigade then it might make sense.
But considering the entire French army (not counting navy or air personnel) is 118,000 that isn’t going to occur
Total mobilization, escape from the front and the government made up of criminals: the events surrounding Ukraine
.
Course of the operation
On Sunday, the Russian military group “Center” liberated the village of Ocheretino in the DPR.
The Russian groups “West” and “Centre” improved the situation, while “South” and “East” took more advantageous positions and repelled a total of 14 attacks and counterattacks by the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 1,155 killed and wounded, as well as equipment – an Abrams tank, 5 armored vehicles, 8 cars, 20 guns, 5 self-propelled guns.
The Russian air force and artillery destroyed a depot of Western weapons in the Odessa area, a fuel depot, workshops for the production of rocket fuel and drones, and a radar station. Air defense shot down 20 Ukrainian drones and 2 Hammer guided bombs.
.
Who should serve in the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Given the shortage of personnel, Kiev began recruiting patients, including patients with hepatitis and tuberculosis, those infected with HIV and people with mental illnesses. Volodin noted that the inventors of this approach are unlikely to serve in the army themselves.
The Ukrainians are trying to avoid being called up – especially given the high losses suffered by the Ukrainian armed forces – which is why they are being carried out by force. In Transcarpathia, a conflict broke out between employees of the local draft office and Gypsies who reported kidnappings of their people. The gypsies blocked the draft office and shots were heard.
.
Follow the fighting spirit
Ukrainian units are leaving the village of Arkhangelskoe near Avdeivka in a panic and are trying to escape, DNR security forces reported to TASS.
The access roads to Chasov Yar are under the control of Russian fire, so Ukrainian units have lost the ability to freely transport reserve forces and ammunition.
The co-director of international security programs at the Ukrainian Razumkov Center, Alexei Melnik, described the situation on the front as critical and acknowledged the Russian advantage.
Jake Sullivan, the US president’s national security adviser, admitted that even the aid package from Washington would not help Kiev in the near future.
Attacks on the border
Over the weekend, Ukraine continuously and indiscriminately shelled the Belgorod region. On Saturday, kamikaze drones attacked the village of Vergilevka, and another attacked the village of Krasnoye. The town of Shebekino, the village of Malinovka, the villages of Baitsury, Bochkovka, Voznesenovka, Vtoraya Olshanka, Dronovka, Zhuravlevka, Novostroevka-Vtoraya and Sevryukovo were also attacked, including from the air.
Ukrainian forces fired ten times at Korovyakovka and Uspenovka in the Kursk region.
Discussions about sending troops
Ukraine could ask European countries to send troops to the country if Ukrainian forces cannot stop the advance of the Russian army, Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexei Goncharenko said on French television.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who once again initiated a discussion about a possible invasion of Ukraine by Western troops, described it as weakness to set limits on options for action. He justified his “determination” with the range of Russian missiles that could hit French territory.
The Italian government has already condemned Macron’s comments. Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said he understood neither the purpose nor the benefit of Macron’s comments, which only escalated tensions.
As the Italian La Repubblica found out, NATO has established two red lines along which the issue of troop deployment can be decided. These are a breakthrough by Russian forces in the northwest, between Kiev and the Belarusian border, as well as possible military provocations in the Baltic countries.
Search for criminals
The Russian Interior Ministry has put Ukraine’s current leader Vladimir Zelensky and former President Petro Poroshenko on its wanted list.
Also on the wanted list are the commander of the ground forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Pavlyuk, and the former acting defense minister of Ukraine, Mikhail Koval.
Without Russia it is pointless
Kazakhstan is ready to organize negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Kazakh Ambassador Dauren Abaev told TASS. He added that without Moscow’s participation, any attempts to resolve the conflict would be impossible.
Ukraine itself needs reports of negotiations in order to compensate for the weariness of society caused by the hostilities, reports der Ukrainian “Focus”, citing Ukrainian experts. “Victory rhetoric” is no longer accepted by society, he notes.
End of translation
https://anti-spiegel.ru/2024/flucht-an-der-front-und-forderungen-nach-europaeischen-truppen-die-ereignisse-des-wochenendes/
Posted by: ossi | May 5 2024 17:00 utc | 33
@27 napoleon
Sure a quick uncontested victory would certainly suit Russia. But, you have to fight the war you get not the war you want. Russian strategy certainly tried to get best of all worlds and failed and had to fall back on the attrition strategy when ukraine declined to submit.
What’s your point? That Russia should surrender? They decline to do so and therefore the situation evolves. Try to keep up.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 17:04 utc | 34
“The Empire will fall when the money runs out. Cash flow, baby. Slowly at first; then all at once. Downfall.”
Posted by: Bagration | May 5 2024 16:30 utc | 24
The US money ran out in 1971-they have run massive deficits since then with only 1998 and 1999 budgets where the US ran a surplus.
The US dollar reserve currency has carried on because of confidence and tradition but, now that is changing rapidly.
For example China used to buy gold bullion with yuan -the last few years China has bought gold bullion with US dollars diminishing their US treasuries holdings over the last 4 years from 1.1 Trillion to 750 billion today.
Posted by: canuck | May 5 2024 17:00 utc | 32
.
.
It’s not about the number, it’s about the fact…look why don’t you send soldiers towards Romania, Baltic Poland.
And it’s about buying the snow from Poland as the new strong power in Europe, which the USA should make them into
France is about humiliating Poland because they are cowards
The few Foreign Legionnaires were only sent to die. When did France ever care about that?
.
And it is good for the West for provocation and escalation
Posted by: ossi | May 5 2024 17:08 utc | 36
So many of the best comments and analysis here as are available anywhere. A great pleasure and satisfaction to spend a Sunday with you all.
Re: nukes danger from neocons. Since 2/24/22 I’m spending as much of the year as possible in S. Hemisphere. Makes sense, no?
Posted by: Bagration | May 5 2024 17:15 utc | 37
Insidious plans
.
Russia prepares sabotage across Europe – Financial Times
According to the newspaper’s interlocutors, Russian authorities are planning explosions, arson and other attacks on European infrastructure.
It is completely incomprehensible why Russia would further antagonize Europe against itself. And it is absolutely clear why Ukraine needs such a confrontation, which has committed many terrorist attacks and even boasted of their successful implementation. From the Crimean Bridge explosion to the contract killings of journalists.
And Ukraine has a dozen potential perpetrators in Europe: in every city there are thousands of “refugees”, among whom there are always agents of the Ukrainian special services.
You will not envy Europe, it has found an ally for all its money!
Posted by: ossi | May 5 2024 17:16 utc | 38
aristodemos (28).
The OSCE was caught spying for the Ukrainians when it was meant to monitor the situation on the conflict in the Donbas between Russia and Ukraine.
OSCE staff were also sacked for reporting the truth on Assad supposedly barrel bombing Douma, which turned out to be lies.
The (IAEA) has also said very little on the Neo-Nazi’s (Ukrainians) continuous attempts to blow up Europe’s largest nuclear power plant the ZNPP, conveniently IAEA staff present at the ZNPP have left just prior to the Neo-Nazi’s starting their attacks on the power plant.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 5 2024 17:18 utc | 39
You can argue about what type of war is more “humane” than another, but I think Sherman had it right when he said, “War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it.”
Posted by: Perimetr | May 5 2024 17:28 utc | 40
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 16:18 utc | 23
Posted by: canuck | May 5 2024 16:33 utc | 25
Thanks, both. Although I didn’t spell it out my view of NATO Plan A encompassed all the sanctioning, the financial asset seizures etc alongside the arming of a putative Ukrainian resistance as part of a multi-pronged approach to debilitating and defeating Russia.
“Epic fail” are the two words that come to my mind when reviewing how things are actually working out.
A big part of the problem from NATO’s side is, as Andrei Martyanov regularly points out, the woeful paucity of anything like real, experienced, perceptive analysis among the Western decision-making cohort. None of them spotted Russia’s quiet internal economic strengthening, its quiet research and development of weapon systems that NATO has no real answer for, its growing closeness with China (this was crystallised by @Larchmonter445 in his ‘China-Russia Double Helix’ post at The Saker some years ago now).
As to what comes next, to my mind a big “unknowable unknown” is what happens to Ukraine’s internal political/civic stability. Aligned with this, does Russia actually need to force an offensive, or can it afford to wait for an opportunity presented by some kind of Ukrainian power vacuum and factional in-fighting? Heck, Russia could even dress this up as a “peace-keeping mission”!
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 5 2024 17:32 utc | 41
Happy Easter to some. Hope peace will come soon.
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | May 5 2024 17:37 utc | 42
The Empire will fall when the money runs out. Cash flow, baby. Slowly at first; then all at once. Downfall.
Posted by: Bagration | May 5 2024 16:30 utc | 24
Thus, the MA (muh attrition) crowd is trapped in the neurosis of sweet lemons. They too, want Russia to break through the front and secure vast swaths of land. Yet this is not happening, so they mentally transform a military quagmire into a wonderland of attrition.
Posted by: Napoleon | May 5 2024 16:39 utc | 27
Bonaparte, you’re standing a bit too close to your ego to read the map. Russian attrition puts one more wet straw on the Camel’s Back of Europe and the US economy, every day that Ukraine needs more money and stuff.
Europe’s entire economic existence depends on U.S. taxpayer/government welfare (NATO,etc). And it depended equally on the Russian Welfare grants of cheap energy.
U.S. Dwarf Yellen didn’t go to China to step up to Xi’s belly button and threaten him with sanctions and war. For that would result in the immediate collapse of the U.S. Consumer economy. She went to plead with Godfather Xi to keep buying U.S. Debt, a disease which China seems to have an allergy to.
The foolish, angry U.S. pillow biters are rapidly forcing a complete roll-over of all their debt into the under 1 year term. Do you think the U.S. can survive their Ponzi if they need to sell 100% of their $35 Trillion rat-tail debt monthly, every single month?
Russia’s 300 billion is a pimple on an elephant’s butt compared to the festering boil on Uncle Sam’s family jewels.
Posted by: kupkee | May 5 2024 17:47 utc | 43
What is Plan C? – To send those who absolutely want to fight against Russia, i.e. the British, French, Balts, Poles, Hofreiter, Baerbock, Bütikofer, Harms and a few more…
I wish you all good luck in the East. You will need it. My grandfather had been there for a few years, the Führer wanted it that way. Even if you escape with your life, you can be broken for the rest.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | May 5 2024 17:56 utc | 44
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 17:04 utc | 34
What’s your point? That Russia should surrender? They decline to do so and therefore the situation evolves. Try to keep up.
I guess the point is not what Russia should not should not do, but that we, esteemed barflies, stop acting as a bunch of cheering fanboys for Russia. For at least two reasons:
1. The situation is not as rosy for Russia and dire for Ukraine as Russian propaganda is trying to portrait. It is a well known fact that Russia while loudly announcing Ukrainian losses does not disclose its own.
2. Russia is not our friend. Ukraine is not either, but that is already given. Why cheering for any of them?
Posted by: hopehely | May 5 2024 18:01 utc | 45
Posted by: aristodemos | May 5 2024 16:34 utc | 26
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apr%C3%A8s_nous,_le_d%C3%A9luge_(expression)
The expression “Après moi le déluge” originated as “Après nous le déluge” by Madame Pompadour mistress of Louis XV. Louis XIV (Le Roi-Soleil) was very much invested in the second half of the seventeenth century with establishing the French nation and the preeminence of the Bourbon aristocracy, so such a nihilistic expression fits neither with his person nor his lifelong project. His grandson Louis XV however came to power in the frivolous Rococo age, following a regency marked by corruption and extravagance. The power of the King and the aristocracy was by then well established. But the age of Louis XV was also one of evolving and challenging new philosophies. So this nihilistic expression is a reflection of absolute power indifferent to a future time, in which those who wield power will already be dead and in which the results of their abuse of power will leave their descendants much worse off. Louis XV, who died leaving both the French nation and the royal family heavily indebted, used the expression in relation to his own grandson Louis XVI. Those debts and Louis XVI’s less than stellar leadership, albeit in very difficult circumstances, lead France to the revolution of 1789.
It would now be fitting if the ruling anglosaxon gerontocracy would finally use it publicly in the original. “Après nous le déluge”
Posted by: kvp | May 5 2024 18:02 utc | 46
Posted by: Perimetr | May 5 2024 17:28 utc | 40
You can argue about what type of war is more “humane” than another, but I think Sherman had it right when he said, “War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it.”
That is easy. Wars in which less civilians in general and children in particular are getting killed are more humane.
Posted by: hopehely | May 5 2024 18:05 utc | 47
Posted by: hopehely 5 2024 18:01 utc | 45
Any student of History knows Russia didn’t start this mess. The U.S. with their European Sheepdog and Ukrainian Capos decided to start a fight they could not finish.
But Russia has right on her side, all the rest, except for the suffering Ukrainian people are thugs, immoral and amoral.
Posted by: kupkee | May 5 2024 18:12 utc | 48
Posted by: Napoleon | May 5 2024 16:39 utc | 27
So, we’ve had muh Berdychi
Followed by muh stalemate
Now we have muh quagmire
Seems the bar is accumulating stale memes almost as fast as a Moscow park is accumulating Western wreckage…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 5 2024 18:17 utc | 49
@45 hopely
Re: cheering
All things being equal I’d cheer for ukraine. But they are not. Ukraines biggest backers are the globalists. They are progressives, they are lgbtq activists(not just respect us, but obey us lgbtq people). They are anti white racists who want to kill white people.
I hate these people and would like to see them die like mussolini.
Therefore if they hate Russia it has to be the case Russia should win. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. It’s tragic that Ukrainians have to die for them, but it can’t be helped.
It’s like Trump, he has all the right enemies so there must be something to him.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 18:18 utc | 50
” the Biden administration is leading talks among G7 nations to commit to a new military aid package for Kiev worth up to $50 billion.
“Ideally, this is something we would like the entire G7 to participate in, be part of, not just have the United States doing it alone,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Bloomberg ” ZH
What happened to “the USA can just print it.” sop ? All those wounded and dead chickens are coming home to roost.
Posted by: kupkee | May 5 2024 18:23 utc | 51
@ canuck, §25:
I don´t think Estonia+Latvia will be so stupid. They know they´re small and near enough to Petersburg to see reality.
Lithuania, on the other hand, has grandiose memories of ruling Belarus & Chornarus (rump Ukraine) and they´re also the “guardian” of the Suwalki gap between Russia and Kaliningrad (north Prussia as was). And backed up by Poland, their historic partner in grandiosity, Lithuania could easily light the fuse.
Poland itself and Rumania look most likely to be strong-armed and/or bribed by the Mafiosi in Washington/EU/UK into being the next victims for the meat-grinder to serve America Inc´s greed.
Fortunately Hungary and Slovakia are sounding the alarm bells – and are likely to be joined soon by Austria and Czecho.
Posted by: John Marks | May 5 2024 18:25 utc | 52
Bryen does not cite a source for his claim, but as a respected expert he is unlikely to have made it up,
Posted by: ossi | May 5 2024 16:46 utc | 30
I think you meant ‘as a respected ‘expert’ he has certainly made it up.’
Bryen has a consistent history of the most egregious lies in pursuit of the Empire’s goals. Do you think a background in the State Department enhances anyone’s credibility? Or contributing the Epoch Times propaganda rag? His entire resume is of work for the organs of imperialism. C’mon, man! Buy a clue.
Posted by: Honzo | May 5 2024 18:29 utc | 53
@ aristodemos, §28:
Ceylon (Lanka) would be nice . . .
Posted by: John Marks | May 5 2024 18:29 utc | 54
@ canuck, §35:
Soon to be followed by Japan which can see the writing on the American wall . . .
Posted by: John Marks | May 5 2024 18:45 utc | 55
@ Bagration, §37:
Not in Oz nor NZ where you might be interned – or sent to fight for the YouCrane.
You should be OK in Buenos Aires or Cape Town . . .
Posted by: John Marks | May 5 2024 18:48 utc | 56
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 18:18 utc | 50
The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Fair enough.
Would you be willing to drink a pint of Tak-Beer with your friends?
Posted by: hopehely | May 5 2024 18:58 utc | 57
That’s too rich, a guy named napoleon… has no recall whatsoever what happened to Napoleon. Was Russia’s victory over Napoleon about breakthroughs and capturing vast swaths of land? Or was it attrition, after which they could do whatever they wanted?
Posted by: I | May 5 2024 18:59 utc | 58
@ hopehely, §45:
“Russia is not our friend.”
Not true. Since the end of the USSR, Russia has tried repeatedly and sincerely to be our friend.
They have been kicked in the teeth every time.
And now NATZO invades them.
As Putin said: “Enough is enough.”
Posted by: John Marks | May 5 2024 19:03 utc | 59
@57 hopely
Can you elaborate? I think the video on telegram implies something about Islamic militants but it’s not clear to me.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 5 2024 19:16 utc | 60
“If kiev requests it”….
But thats the point. Kiev isnt going to request it.
This is by prior agreement between macron, cameron and kiev.
Be sure, if it was a serious proposal kiev would DEFINATELY request it. But they wont and cameron and macron know this.
What it does do though, is give the appearance of a tough, unfrightened uk and france.
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 5 2024 19:24 utc | 61
reply to 45
Why cheer for Russia? Because we try to have hope for the human race in general. If you are an American or British (and often, European), you have no say in Endless War policies. Your vote means nothing, protest means almost nothing. The Uniparty offers no choice.
Where is any hope for world peace at all? This: Balance. A multipolar world in which nations choose who they wish to deal with – as well as making war so expensive and impractical that the US in particular, stays away from it. Yemen has created a blockade with missiles and the US/EU can’t do much about it.
If China becomes number 1, their ‘hegemony’ would be very different because they are far too alien to manage subversion and regime change such as the US/EU can do. I think they will simply do deals and lack interest otherwise. It’s like a ‘free market’ of geopolitics. And similar to Adam Smith, peace won’t come from leaders who deeply care (blah, blah, blah) but because they can freely seek their own interests without hegemonic control.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 5 2024 19:42 utc | 62
French troops hit in Sloviansk…seems they are there.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 5 2024 19:44 utc | 63
“Russia is not our friend.”
Not true. Since the end of the USSR, Russia has tried repeatedly and sincerely to be our friend.
They have been kicked in the teeth every time.
And now NATZO invades them.
As Putin said: “Enough is enough.”
Posted by: John Marks | May 5 2024 19:03 utc | 59
Agreed, and it made sense RF as the EU’s energy and safety partner.
The biggest mistake was NOT integrating RF in the EU without letting the sack and collapse of the 1990’s.
Or at least do so after Putin saw that and proposed (as much as could be done).
Maybe a point can be made that he was naive, but believing that a good deal for both sides would be accepted is not irrational, the EU not taking the chance was the irrational behavior (and as someone else said, europeans have little to no say to a political class that behaves without consent and without its citizens best interest in mind… regardless of who wins the elections)
Posted by: Newbie | May 5 2024 19:56 utc | 64
Zelensky on Russia’s wanted list…. haven’t looked up the charges – around the 21st he’s no longer the elected president of 404.
The Americans saying now the 60 billion will allow ‘Ukraine’ to launch an offensive in 2025. Looks to be nothing more than a carrot to keep the idiot Ukrainians and Europeans at war with Russia until after the next US election. Election cycle wars…. the banality of evil. How many people will be killed between noe and the US election/inauguration?
Putting Cokeman on a wanted list – I’m wondering if Russia is planning something to pre-empt the UK attack on the Kerch bridge.
Current casualty ratio? that must be off the charts by now. Ukraine/Nato doesn’t seem to have anything to strike behind the lines anywhere along the front whereas Russia is striking everywhere. I assume the will be casualties amongst the assault groups but that seems very light compared to losses taking by the motley crew that are termed Ukraine forces.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 19:58 utc | 65
Putting Cokeman on a wanted list – I’m wondering if Russia is planning something to pre-empt the UK attack on the Kerch bridge.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 19:58 utc | 65
Good point. Perhaps its a veiled threat. “You blow that bridge and we’re gonna target you Z”
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 5 2024 20:06 utc | 66
Current casualty ratio? that must be off the charts by now. Ukraine/Nato doesn’t seem to have anything to strike behind the lines anywhere along the front whereas Russia is striking everywhere. I assume the will be casualties amongst the assault groups but that seems very light compared to losses taking by the motley crew that are termed Ukraine forces.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 19:58 utc | 65
Let’s see… artillery-wise 10 to 1?
Heavy bombing (FAB from big to huge) 100 to 0
Even (and I’m not sure given RF’s EW) there is a slight advantage on anti personnel drones , does anyone believe it makes any significant difference?
RF losses in february were already low, expecting march excess mortality data any day now, to check if even lower.
Posted by: Newbie | May 5 2024 20:18 utc | 67
In case anyone was wondering, I have replied to the poster Julie-Ann, whom I erroneously assumed to be biologically male; a mistake I’ve already apologized for. It’s our host’s choice as to whether that post appears on his site or not, and I’ll not think badly of him if he chooses not to have it.
As to the point Peter AU1 raises @65, I wonder if perhaps the Russians will stage a rescue of the poor Jew trapped in the Nazi den under the guise of executing an arrest warrant? That would be Zelensky’s best hope for a long life, after all.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 5 2024 20:26 utc | 68
Ukrainians are still flhighly motivated, we see no mutinies, no whdiscontent. Only after that we can talk about the Russian victory. For now this is a stalemate.
Posted by: vargas | May 5 2024 20:30 utc | 69
Ukrainians are still flhighly motivated, we see no mutinies, no whdiscontent. Only after that we can talk about the Russian victory. For now this is a stalemate.
Posted by: vargas | May 5 2024 20:30 utc | 69
Stop talking fuckin stupid!
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 5 2024 20:32 utc | 70
We haven’t speculated about what happens after May 20th. Russia seems to hint that negotiation isn’t even possible after that because Ukraine has no legitimate leader. Do they boldly send a Khinzal to greet Zelensky? Are they setting this up by seeking his arrest? So, any Geneva Convention stuff doesn’t apply?
Would many Ukrainians celebrate? Maybe the Rada would have to vote on capitulation.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 5 2024 20:33 utc | 71
Posted by: vargas | May 5 2024 20:30 utc | 69
jeah as we say in australia it’s a stalemate, like you are in a stale and I like to mate <3
Posted by: Macpott | May 5 2024 20:36 utc | 72
“Kiev regime losing more than a thousand soldiers per day on the front lines.”
https://infobrics.org/post/41076/0
I think that the comments about a fake stalemate are the most stupid ones considering the reality at the front.
Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 20:41 utc | 73
I suffered through almost all of Mercouris’ latest video (he’s
sure got the gift of gab) and he makes several excellent points. One is that the list of weapons in the latest aid package from DC contains lots of head scratchers, like stinger missiles that won’t even be back in production until 2026, and ATACMs that do not exist either unless you count refurbished ones. Confirms that the cupboard is getting entirely empty and the real point is to keep MIC grift going.
I like Alex all kidding aside. One benefit is that he talks more than necessary but generally resists speculation.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 5 2024 20:47 utc | 74
William Gruff | May 5 2024 20:26 utc | 68
I hadn’t though of that. I doubt he is loyal to anyone or anything and would most likely sing like a sweet little tweety bird if captured.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 20:55 utc | 75
I hadn’t though of that. I doubt he is loyal to anyone or anything…
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 20:55 utc | 75
oops, forgot about his ‘flour’ supply. Need to dig up the Kadyrov skit for that.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 21:03 utc | 76
Ghost of Zanon @ 74
I like Alex all kidding aside. One benefit is that he talks more than necessary but generally resists speculation.
He was great early on when his vids where ~40min, then they became 1hr 20min plus and it became insufferable, though he’s still insightful I just can’t take it. I know he’s aware that “brevity is the soul of wit” guessing there’s some monetization optimization in the 1hr 20min figure, a bucks/minutes peak. Chritoforou keeps it tight and still gets my views.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 5 2024 21:08 utc | 77
karlof1 mentioned the Ratnik body armour the other day.
A bit of video that could be straight out of a terminator movie.
https://twitter.com/RadarFennec/status/1786863337986236607
Fennec_Radar
@RadarFennec
Guy casually shrugs off 3 FPV strikes, drops a grenade into a dugout before jumping in, just in time to be missed by a mortar shell.
Some guys are just built different.
………..
First FPV knocks them off the motorbike. He dicks around for a bit helping his mate up then runs off down the road to attack the Ukie position.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 21:11 utc | 78
Hmmm….the old Charge of the Light Brigade, over and over and over. Rapid, foolish attacking does not guarantee less death. That is only the toss of a coin.
Posted by: kupkee | May 5 2024 15:02 utc | 10
Side fact, a standard squad/section drill is called the “anti ambush drill”. The participants are taught to charge in the direction of on coming fire and not to “take cover”. The entire idea to get out of the kill zone as quickly as possible.
Which is contrary to normal practice, being shot at, take cover/return fire/advance or withdraw/reorg.
Posted by: I | May 5 2024 18:59 utc | 58
Touche!
Latest on RT is Ukraine may request for foreign nations (France) to send troops. I believe this is trying to emulate the CSTO move in Khazakstan or Russia/Iran intervention in Syria. Except, in both those instances, countries were responding to “non state actors”.
No question of NATO soldiers unofficially in country.But, will Macron be allowed to intervene officially?
Posted by: Suresh | May 5 2024 21:14 utc | 79
“happens after May 20th…………Do they boldly send a Khinzal to greet Zelensky? ”
Eighthman | May 5 2024 20:33 utc | 71
The Russians set up a Ukrainian Government in Exile, that will authorize them to kick NATO out of all Ukraine and begin denazificayion from the inside of the government (national, oblasts, and cities).
Posted by: Jerr | May 5 2024 21:25 utc | 80
” “Kiev regime losing more than a thousand soldiers per day on the front lines.”
Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 20:41 utc | 73 ”
How many people did Vietnam lose ?
How many people did the US lose ?
Who won ?
” The McNamara fallacy is often considered in the context of the Vietnam War, in which enemy body counts were taken to be a precise and objective measure of success. War was reduced to a mathematical model: By increasing estimated enemy deaths and minimizing one’s own, victory was assured. ”
Posted by: Moonie | May 5 2024 21:25 utc | 81
Moonie | May 5 2024 21:25 utc | 81
Ukraine is not Vietnam. Neither in population nor leadership. The only way it can be likened to Vietnam is the speed at which the proxy government will collapse if/when the west dumps it. US has already dumped it but the Euro twats try to keep it going.
Perhaps even saying Ukraine is not Vietnam is wrong, in the sense of how fast the western supported government will collapse without western backing. Vietnam, Afghanistan, Ukraine.
But to liken Cokeman to Ho Chi Minh…. you certainly live in a different world.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 21:37 utc | 82
Ukraine will never surrender to the Orc bastads and we in the USA will never abandon them!!!
Posted by: canuck | May 5 2024 21:50 utc | 83
I took so long correcting some of the typos and whatnot on my post in the previous thread that I missed out on seeing a fresh one had supplanted it. So please excuse this repost.
A while back I posted about how morale in Ukraine had reached a low point partly because that in spite of government propaganda, and the Zelenskyy regime having closed down news outlets that could post the truth of the state of the war, all the people in Eastern Ukraine had family or friends, or friends with family, who had either been killed or wounded when fighting against the Russian Federation forces.
Since I posted that the situation has become much more dire, with a much more pronounced general awareness of all the soldiers killed and soldiers seriously wounded. Overflowing cemeteries don’t tell lies, and this is the environment that the West and the Zelenskyy regime expect to be conducive to getting those who fled the war, and have been blissfully living in other countries, to surrender themself to be served up to the awaiting maw of the meat grinder at the front, after just a few months of indifferent training.
And that magical thinking applies to ginning up enthusiasm among the recently graduated university students, and those in their forties and above, or those who have infirmities, who were previously exempt from the draft.
You know, it can be infuriating to encounter the Western propaganda coming from the likes of fat cat war pigs like Lindsay Graham which strongly implies all of Ukraine refuses to consider a peace deal, and would rather die than concede an inch of territory that the Zelenskyy regime formerly held. I wish for a reporter to ask them, “Then why have millions of young men fled Ukraine, rather than fight and die for it?”. Why is it that no other nation has ever won a war with that level of total resistance at home to fighting it? Even during America’s Vietnam War there were only tens of thousands, not millions, who fled to Canada, a country where English was spoken, and the way of life was similar. And that was over around a decade of time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_resisters_in_Canada
Posted by: Babel-17 | May 5 2024 21:50 utc | 84
Western military re-industrialisation is just rumour that’s been spread around town:
Robert Wyatt – Shipbuilding
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 5 2024 21:54 utc | 85
I like Alex all kidding aside. One benefit is that he talks more than necessary but generally resists speculation.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 5 2024 20:47 utc | 74
Thanks for the laughs. His M.O. is to have his cake and eat it: he proffers an interpretation of events then immediately says
“Just saying/let’s just wait and see/&c”
Playback speed at 1.25 makes him more tolerable.
Posted by: Cortes | May 5 2024 21:55 utc | 86
” But to liken Cokeman to Ho Chi Minh…. you certainly live in a different world.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 21:37 utc | 82 ”
Straw man is here I see. When did I ever imply that ?
Obviously the wars are different, one is more of a guerilla fight the other is definitely “conventional” with new technologies. However, these constant body counts are just silly and a waste of time. Isnt Ukraine supposed to be on its third, fourth, or fifth army by now ? Isnt it out of ammo and weapons systems ? Arent its current troops composed of drug addicts, convicts, old men, and cripples. If true, then Russia should be steam rolling through Ukraine lines like a hot knife through butter. Why arent they ? ( queue the plethora of various explanations and excuses ).
To see the current type of troops Ukraine has, I invite everyone to go to sites like https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ and watch some videos of the fighting, they dont seem to be that different from Russian troops as there are plenty of healthy looking young men, with plenty of gear.
Of course this is a very active war and many people die, but thats what happens in a real war, something which we havent seen for a long time. The only indicator of victory is when Ukraine officially surrenders and agrees to all of Russia’s terms not some vacuous body counts.
Posted by: Moonie | May 5 2024 22:05 utc | 87
Moonie | May 5 2024 22:05 utc | 87
No strawmans. You linked the wining side against a US proxy in Vietnam to the current US proxy in this war. Instead you should have likened the US proxy in Vietnam to the US proxy in Ukraine. They all end the same.
As Kissinger said “to be and enemy of the US is dangerous, to be a ‘friend’ is lethal”.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 22:09 utc | 88
I saw a Russian promo video for body armour that was being designed some time back. Somebody walking through explosions – get through, pulls off the helmet and its a pretty woman. I didn’t give it much more thought.
But the drone video that is starting to appear now… whatever the body armour is, it is bloody good as in next gen. Put that on a “Best in Hell” mindset… I guess that is what we are starting to see.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 22:17 utc | 89
Yandex translation from French:
The presence in Ukraine of soldiers of the French foreign legion is becoming very visible.
This is due to President Macron’s greyhound position.
The French legionnaires present in Ukraine since March 2024 arrive mainly in two directions.
The first is Odessa and Chernomorsk. The second is the Slavic agglomeration-Kramatorsk.
Of the 1,540 legionnaires, 280 are special forces combat training instructors. 450 people are military engineers and signalmen.
The others are tankmen and gunners. There are also arrivals in groups of 7 to 10 by Chisinau Airport in Moldova.
The Legion gathers 3-4 dozen military experts to organize attacks with SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles on the Crimean military infrastructure and the Crimean Bridge.
The main goal of the French Legion is to gather fighters from the Western PMCs who are not fighters, according to Paris, to create a cover for vacationers from the general staff and the French Ministry of Defense.
In fact, most of the approximately 1,600 people are career officers and military intelligence officers, who, according to Macron, should make a game-changer, or a radical change, on the front line in favor of the armed forces of Ukraine under the leadership of the French general staff.
It’s all Napoleonism.
The cover operation with the leak of data on the German negotiations on the Taurus missile strikes on the Crimean bridge was recognized as successful by NATO, which at the end of February launched the mechanism for transferring the French army under the banner of the legion to Ukraine.
Macron’s revenge for the lost Africa has begun, and it is organized so that retaliatory strikes do not reach Paris and do not prevent the Olympic Games.
Mr. Emmanuel himself constantly talks about peace initiatives and pacifism, thus masking his personal decisions.
This decision was made; the Kremlin was aware of these plans at the end of 2023.
Of course, the response of the general Staff of the Moscow region will not be long in coming:
The mass death of French legionnaires during the “Macron Olympic Truce” will not be comme il faut.
Imagine how, in the middle of the Olympic Games, the French masses will be enlightened by the leaked images of killed soldiers of the French Legion, and how the Flight Radar application will generously show dozens of air ambulance planes with 200 and 300 cargoes to Polish and Romanian hospitals. and the morgues.
Moldova, with its trafficking in legionnaires, will not be left out either.
Source:
t.me/boriskarpovrussie/134971
Like for Leopards and Abrams, I guess there will be primes for hitting those. As they are not French, the French families will not be whining.
Already it is reported that 100 bodybags returned though Chateauroux airport.
Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 22:37 utc | 90
Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 5 2024 15:23 utc | 16
Scott Ritter’s reporting about this might be the best work he’s done:
https://scottritter.substack.com/p/dancing-the-khorumi-on-rustaveli
TBH, while I don´t particularly disagree with his general premise, it isn´t good writing,
it´s not particularly insightful or informative to actual details relevant to the point.
Not that I feel 100% aligned with the authors, but the articles by Almut Rochowanksi and Sopiko Japaridze
(linked in comment by ¨AG¨ in Weekly Review thread)
are just magnitudes more informative (including the characterization of Georgian NGO budgets as 80% foreign,
which Ritter neglects likely to due to ignorance, instead only referencing the 20% threshold of the law)
and actually give insider insight from Western-funded NGO participants themselves who feel the
compulsion for self-reflection and honesty about the ethical and political problems they have submitted to.
Much of Ritter´s article in fact devolves into broad generalizations not based on the specific issue at hand.
https://lefteast.org/unrest-georgia-foreign-influence-transparency-law/
https://discomfortzone.substack.com/p/foreign-agent-law-fundamentals-part
https://discomfortzone.substack.com/cp/143837943
Posted by: ccc | May 5 2024 22:44 utc | 91
From intelslava, 11.17:
NATO, against the backdrop of Western concern about the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front, “in a very confidential form”, “established” two “red lines” for itself, which could be followed by direct intervention of the alliance in the conflict, writes the Italian newspaper Repubblica.
The first “red line,” Repubblica argues, “revolves around the possibility of Russian penetration through Kyiv’s defense lines” and concerns “direct or indirect third party involvement” in the conflict in Ukraine. The publication writes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces “can no longer fully control” the border, which, according to the newspaper, creates conditions for the Russian Armed Forces to break through into the corridor between Ukraine and Belarus. As the newspaper suggests, “then Minsk will be directly involved in the military dispute,” and “its troops and arsenal will be of decisive importance for Moscow.” “And this circumstance can only intensify (NATO’s) defense in favor of Ukraine,” the article states.
The second “red line,” the newspaper writes, “involves a military provocation against the Baltic countries or Poland or a targeted attack on Moldova.” Repubblica also notes the deep concern of Western authorities about the situation at the front and the “unfavorable conditions” for Kyiv.
Stalemate?! Someone says”stalemate”? But why is nato so worried?
Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 22:49 utc | 92
Naive | May 5 2024 22:37 utc | 90
The banker boy from gay Paree. Those perfumed twats from the Euro elite thinking they can go up against Russia…. but not a Napoleon or Hitler amongst them. Ludicrous to watch.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 5 2024 22:57 utc | 93
I just wonder…
What will happen if a couple of weeks before the Olympic Games, Russia declares that they are in a state of war with France, due to France’s active involvement with the SMO.
No further action needed. Just declare a state of war…
Posted by: Erlindur | May 5 2024 23:01 utc | 94
Dima of M/S claiming that Russia targeted/hit French Foreign Legion.
Posted by: jared | May 5 2024 23:06 utc | 95
Posted by: jared | May 5 2024 23:06 utc | 95
They are priority targets. No doubt. It will become funny.
Posted by: Naive | May 5 2024 23:11 utc | 96
During the last six months of amazing advances and fracturing lines (if you follow the clickbait mappers), we have seen this progress by RFA in % Ukrainian territory.
NOV23: .00%
DEC23: .01%
JAN24: .01%
FEB24: .02% (the month Avdiivka city fell)
MAR24: .01% (the disarray retreat month…yes, it really was this tiny!)
APR24: .01% (yes, still this tiny, despite all the hooplah about the Oche “bloom”)
Source: https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1786376285574373643/photo/1
So that’s .06% in six months. Or a convenient average of .01% per month. Or .12% per year. At that rate of change, we’d have to wait 687.25 years for the RFA to occupy all of the remaining unoccupied Ukraine (82.47%).
If we change our focus and just think about occupying all of the claimed annexed oblasts, it would still take several decades. I don’t have a good estimate of how much of Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zhaporizia are still in Ukrop hands (none are 100% RFA held). But say it’s 6% of Ukraine. That would still take 50 years to complete the occupation of claimed Russian sovereign territory. Even if it’s 3% of Ukraine, that would take 25 years. And note, this DOESN’T include Odessa or Kharkiv or many other dreamed about Russian speaking areas of Ukraine.
It boggles the mind to think of the war lasting that long. Putin isn’t even going to live that long. Either the lines will break and the RFA will come through. Or the converse. Or both sides will get tired and we end up with a Korean peninsula solution.
This last seems the most likely. Russia has already made several signals of being willing to negotiate. It’s actually the West and Ukraine which needs to be compelled to the table more. They are still not ready to eat their half of the sh$+ sandwich. When this armistice happens…it’s incredibly likely that the conflict will be frozen at the line of conflict. Why would either side concede something, when it’s clear that defensive warfare is superior to offensive…and that both sides have proven incapable of “big arrow” moves.
—-
By the way, if you look at the 6 months of the Ukrop “offensive”, they only took .10% of territory in six months. And yes, I completely agree that their offensive failed. I’m not a cheerleader for either side. I’m a cheerleader for looking the truth in the eye and not being a copium-hopium dope addict (on either side!) But for all that, their pathetic offensive was actually similar (and even slightly better) than the last six months of “disarray”.
Ukrop advances during summer offensive:
May23: .02%
JUN23: .04%
JUL23: .01%
AUG23: .01%
SEP23: .01%
OCT23: .01%
————-
The last time we had significant changes was in late 22 when Ukrops got ~3% of the country. And some areas that most people would consider strategic (Kharkiv environs, Mykolaiv environs, Kherson itself, and the RFA presense accross the Dneiper along the Black Sea). Sure sounds more strategic than Avdiivka or Bakhmut!
Just look at the math. Team stalemate looking awful good since end of 22. Maybe that Ukrop general knew what he was talking about when he said the battlefield favored the defense and that neither RFA nor UFA had the ability to make big moves.
Of course, maybe y’all don’t like math and prefer to consume virtual beers at the “bar”. Or follow mappers like Weeb or Southpoint who give you hopium flavored updates. I mean some people don’t like geography either and seem amazingly unaware of where Odessa is. Or the Dnieper River.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 5 2024 23:39 utc | 97
Just think. When Russia finally prevails and installs a Party of Regions government in Kiev, all those debts that the present illegal regime has built up with the west will be DISHONOURED. Kaputt. Gone. A lot of money will have been lost in the west! Bye Bye Black Rock….fuck off!
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 5 2024 23:49 utc | 98
“…perhaps ultimately create another Bolshevik Revolution (60M died according to estimates)”
Posted by: R-NotBot_3000 | May 5 2024 14:56 utc | 8
FYI: The ones who give estimates that 60M died in the Bolshevik Revolution are the same ones who estimate that 500M Russian soldiers have died in the SMO, and that Putin has cancer.
They are long term liars.
Posted by: wagelaborer | May 5 2024 23:49 utc | 99
Anton Hofreiter (prominent MP German Greens) say Ukrainians in Germany (and EU) should be given documents so they don’t have to return to Ukraine to renew their passports.
He says they should have the right to refuse military service, bc it’s a right enshrined in Germany’s constitution, and bc drafting people unwilling to fight “doesn’t make AFU stronger”.
William Gruff | May 5 2024 20:26 utc | 68
Good point. I’ve always said that once he’s no longer useful to the West, the only safe place for Zelensky will be Russia (and China). But I hadn’t seen the arrest warrant in this context. Possible.
Posted by: smuks | May 5 2024 23:50 utc | 100