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A Kharkiv Encirclement As Dreamed Up By ‘Sources’
Yesterday The Economist published about an alleged Russian plan to partially encircle Kharkiv:
Ukraine’s desperate struggle to defend Kharkiv (archived)
I find that this is unlikely to ever have been a Russian plan:
Retrieved military plans, details of which were shared with The Economist, suggest the Russians were probing to see if they could partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on the Ukrainian formations to the east of the Pechenihy reservoir. The operation was supposedly planned for May 15th-16th but was brought forward by nearly a week for unknown reasons.
According to the plans, the Russians had identified two axes of attack on either side of the reservoir. The push on the western axis was intended, over 72 hours, to bring Russian troops to within artillery range of Kharkiv city at the village of Borshchova. They were stopped by a rapidly redeployed grouping from the elite 92nd Brigade, which pushed them back a full 10km from their initial goal.
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On the Vovchansk axis, further east, the Russian plan had been to fight past Anna’s father’s house on the reservoir, right down to the town of Pechenihy. The Russians initially made quick work of this operation, sweeping through an area that should have been prepared with minefields and serious engineering fortifications but wasn’t.
The piece includes this not very helpful map:
I have marked the LiveUAmap map of the Russian Kharkiv incursion with arrows from the border to the villages named in the Economist piece:
bigger
Borshchova is 15 kilometer (~10 miles) from the border.
The town of Pechenihy is west of the reservoir and the distance from the border is some 45 kilometer (~30 miles).
The whole Russian force used for the Kharkiv incursion is not larger than one division with some 12 to 15,000 men – most of them in back positions. Various videos from the operation show that the frontline forces mostly consist of infantry advancing on foot. There are only a few tanks, if any, and no large convoys of resupplies.
How such a forces would be supposed to do (within 72 hours) a five kilometer advance per day towards Borshchova or even a 15 kilometer advance per day towards Pechenihy is beyond me.
Such a move would require at least three divisions with a decent tank fist, absolute air superiority and highly mobile logistics. Given the prevalence of drones on both sides of the battlefield such an operation would certainly have incurred high losses for little but some tactical gain.
It would be totally untypical for the Russian force as it is currently fighting. Everything is done to avoid Russian losses. Artillery and air attacks are used to destroy the enemy. Only after that has happened will the infantry advance.
I do not know who made the plans the Economist published about. I do not know who 'retrieved' and 'shared' it. But I am pretty sure that neither has not involved anyone who is part of – or even near to – the Russian military.
It is disinformation with a likely purpose of demonstrating that the Russian forces are less capable than they really are:
"Look, they had such big plans but only achieved this little."
Do people still fall for such nonsense?
Russia is now much weaker then Powell’s army during that war.
Posted by: vargas | May 21 2024 19:31 utc | 124
Meanwhile: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12513726@egNews
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (21 May 2024)
Units of the Sever Group of Forces continue advancing to the depth of the enemy’s defences.
Losses were inflicted on manpower and hardware of the AFU 125th Mechanised Brigade, 112th, and 113th territorial defence brigades near Konstantinovka, Okhrimovka, and Granov (Kharkov region).
Three counter-attacks launched by the enemy’s assault detachments were repelled near Volchansk and Staritsa (Kharkov region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 245 Ukrainian troops, two tanks, two armoured fighting vehicles, two pickup trucks, three 152-mm 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, and one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station.
Units of the Zapad Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on formations of the AFU 14th, 21st, and 66th mechanised brigades near Novosadovoye, Ivanovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Nevskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic).
Six counter-attacks launched by the AFU assault detachments were repelled near Stelmakhovka, Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 425 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two armoured personnel carriers, six motor vehicles, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and one 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
Two U.S.-made AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery warfare stations were destroyed.
Units of the Yug Group of Forces improved the tactical situation along the front line and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 57th Mechanised Brigade, 105th, and 118th territorial defence brigades near Konstantinovka, Razdolovka, and Chasov Yar (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to more than 320 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, and two U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzers.
One AFU ammunition depot was destroyed.
Units of the Tsentr Group of Forces improved the tactical situation, as well as inflicted losses on formations of the AFU 68th Jaeger Brigade and 24th Mechanised Brigade near Semyonovka and Novgorodskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Seven counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 71st Jaeger Brigade, 47th, and 110th mechanised brigades were repelled near Ocheretino, Solovyovo, and Umanskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 420 Ukrainian troops, five armoured fighting vehicles, including four U.S.-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
Units of the Vostok Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 128th Territorial Defence Brigade near Velikaya Novosyolka and Makarovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
One counter-attack of the enemy was repelled near Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 145 Ukrainian troops, two infantry fighting vehicles, eight motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M198 howitzer, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 37th Marines Brigade, 65th Mechanised Brigade, and 15th National Guard Brigade near Veseloye (Kherson region), Rabotino, and Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporozhye region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 105 Ukrainian troops, seven motor vehicles, two U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzers, one 152-mm 2A36 Giatsint-B howitzer, and one 122-mm BM-21 Grad MLRS combat vehicle.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware clusters in 95 areas during the day.
Air Defence units shot down 45 unmanned aerial vehicles, two U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles, eight French-made SCALP-EG cruise missiles, five French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs, four U.S.-made HARM anti-radiation missiles, and eight U.S.-made HIMARS and Olkha MLRS projectiles.
In total, 601 airplanes and 274 helicopters, 24,464 unmanned aerial vehicles, 523 air defence missile systems, 16,114 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,306 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 9,717 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 21,872 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
A sombre total of 1660 troop losses. Also noted is the loss of more Bradleys; were these meant to be game-changer #3 or game-changer #4? I’ve long since lost count…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 21 2024 19:49 utc | 131
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