A Kharkiv Encirclement As Dreamed Up By 'Sources'
Yesterday The Economist published about an alleged Russian plan to partially encircle Kharkiv:
Ukraine’s desperate struggle to defend Kharkiv (archived)
I find that this is unlikely to ever have been a Russian plan:
Retrieved military plans, details of which were shared with The Economist, suggest the Russians were probing to see if they could partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on the Ukrainian formations to the east of the Pechenihy reservoir. The operation was supposedly planned for May 15th-16th but was brought forward by nearly a week for unknown reasons.According to the plans, the Russians had identified two axes of attack on either side of the reservoir. The push on the western axis was intended, over 72 hours, to bring Russian troops to within artillery range of Kharkiv city at the village of Borshchova. They were stopped by a rapidly redeployed grouping from the elite 92nd Brigade, which pushed them back a full 10km from their initial goal.
...
On the Vovchansk axis, further east, the Russian plan had been to fight past Anna’s father’s house on the reservoir, right down to the town of Pechenihy. The Russians initially made quick work of this operation, sweeping through an area that should have been prepared with minefields and serious engineering fortifications but wasn’t.
The piece includes this not very helpful map:
I have marked the LiveUAmap map of the Russian Kharkiv incursion with arrows from the border to the villages named in the Economist piece:
bigger
Borshchova is 15 kilometer (~10 miles) from the border.
The town of Pechenihy is west of the reservoir and the distance from the border is some 45 kilometer (~30 miles).
The whole Russian force used for the Kharkiv incursion is not larger than one division with some 12 to 15,000 men - most of them in back positions. Various videos from the operation show that the frontline forces mostly consist of infantry advancing on foot. There are only a few tanks, if any, and no large convoys of resupplies.
How such a forces would be supposed to do (within 72 hours) a five kilometer advance per day towards Borshchova or even a 15 kilometer advance per day towards Pechenihy is beyond me.
Such a move would require at least three divisions with a decent tank fist, absolute air superiority and highly mobile logistics. Given the prevalence of drones on both sides of the battlefield such an operation would certainly have incurred high losses for little but some tactical gain.
It would be totally untypical for the Russian force as it is currently fighting. Everything is done to avoid Russian losses. Artillery and air attacks are used to destroy the enemy. Only after that has happened will the infantry advance.
I do not know who made the plans the Economist published about. I do not know who 'retrieved' and 'shared' it. But I am pretty sure that neither has not involved anyone who is part of - or even near to - the Russian military.
It is disinformation with a likely purpose of demonstrating that the Russian forces are less capable than they really are:
"Look, they had such big plans but only achieved this little."
Do people still fall for such nonsense?
Posted by b on May 21, 2024 at 11:07 UTC | Permalink
next page »"Encirclement" is a very tough row to hoe. Anyone who's read military history, or even modern narratives from Lt. Col. David Hackworth, knows that cauldrons and encirclements require a massive local troop advantage AND detail-oriented commanders. Leave a gap in your seal, and the encirclement will fail pointlessly while putting your flanking forces in real danger. American forces were usually incompetent to close the seal in Vietnam, but then even a brook or a mountain path would be sufficient for the NVA infantry to escape American notice.
The problem in Ukraine is that after the first few days, the Russians couldn't develop encirclements without NATO ISR warning Ukraine. This would give AFU forces time to evacuate while elements could attack the Russian elements trying to close the seal from the other side. "Cauldrons" only form around fixed locations like Mariupol, and even then that was more of a siege that only wore Azov down after months.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | May 21 2024 11:18 utc | 2
People tend to believe the "official" narrative. It's part of the tribal "wanting to belong" instinct. I guess logic and healthy suspicion aren't prioritised in our educational institutions to balance this inate tendency.
Posted by: dr3zz0 | May 21 2024 11:22 utc | 3
"Do people still fall for such nonsense?"
Yup, they do. By the hundreds of millions. That's why the Economist published it.
Posted by: Rubiconned | May 21 2024 11:23 utc | 4
Yes The Economist - noted for its deep knowledge of military strategy... As B points out the Russian force seems no more than a well-directed probe really. It's unlikely to have been conceived independent of the Sumy push, which is still cautiously reported.
Posted by: Gerry Bell | May 21 2024 11:23 utc | 5
Quelqu’un a t il des infos concernant l utilisation des bombes planantes FAB 3000 par l aviation russe, types d avions transporteurs, ajout propulseur au corps de bombe, distance de lancement par rapport à la cible, etc … je suis impatient de voir les résultats !!!
Posted by: Dubourg | May 21 2024 11:25 utc | 6
"Empire of Lies"
It "suggests" many things, none of them true.
I suggests the war is not essentially over, it suggests The Economist is worth reading, it suggests the spooks know what they are doing, it suggests they needed something to fill up a page or two, so many suggestions.
Posted by: Bemildred | May 21 2024 11:31 utc | 7
The Economist 'makes up' the story about Russia attempting to encircle and capture Kharkiv so that when Russia doesn't (not their plan as b argues) capture Kharkiv The Fascist Economist will hail this 'misadventure' as an Ukrainian victory!
Moscow’s core war aim is roll back of NATO to its 1997 members. All military analysis should take that into account.
Paradoxically - the quick collapse of NATO/Kiev’s military in The Ukraine is NOT part of Moscows grand strategy. A quick collapse would leave NATOs political structures intact.
Hence the rope-a-dope military operations
Posted by: Exile | May 21 2024 11:47 utc | 9
Encirclement" is a very tough row to hoe.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | May 21 2024 11:18 utc | 2
Sun Tzu says you need 10 to 1.
Subtle propaganda, but is the, " we won, because we stopped them from doing what we say they wanted to do.".
They really like this one, because it allows them to paint defeats as victories. So they use it a lot, and will continue to use it, unless Russia takes all of Ukraine, and even then, they may claim, "we won, because we made Putin suffer so much blood and treasure that we ruined his plans of conquering Europe".
Of course, that is assuming he doesnt keep going after Ukraine.
I dont know. I dont know how I could resist crushing NATO if I lost half a million crushing them in Ukraine, and all their materiel.
NATO is foolishly disarming themselves to arm Ukraine and hurt Russia, doing so under the assumption that they dont need all their tanks and AA because Russia would not dare go beyond Ukraine. That, itself, is a provocation.
I don't yet know how to explain how this means Europe deserves to get conquered for this, but it does. Europe will never be weaker than the day Russia finishes Ukraine. Then it will slowly grow strong again, with only one objective, to destroy Russia.
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2024 11:52 utc | 10
Reality here: -
"How such a forces would be supposed to do (within 72 hours) a five kilometer advance per day towards Borshchova or even a 15 kilometer advance per day towards Pechenihy is beyond me.
"Such a move would require at least three divisions with a decent tank fist, absolute air superiority and highly mobile logistics. Given the prevalence of drones on both sides of the battlefield such an operation would certainly have incurred high losses for little but some tactical gain.
"It would be totally untypical for the Russian force as it is currently fighting. Everything is done to avoid Russian losses. Artillery and air attacks are used to destroy the enemy. Only after that has happened will the infantry advance."
That's what's actually happening. Verifiably. But the fake reality is still being peddled here. It's the fake reality all over the media:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teBbgTd06aI&t=1s&ab_channel=TimesRadio
It's very dangerous when so many believe, or assert they believe, this fake reality. But it'll keep being sold to us all the way to the coming Cold War II.
Posted by: English Outsider | May 21 2024 12:00 utc | 11
Anyone listen to Dima....just another hack who said Russia does not have enough forces in place to encircle never mind take Krakow. Ukie bleating was to secure more weapons from west and Russia obliged them with a light advance, just far enough to take some empty villages and kill lots more Ukie, but not near far enough to form a sanitary, missile free, zone.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 21 2024 12:13 utc | 12
I think it is an interesting subject, to a certain extend.
It's about the influence of public mood or perception - not entirely sure.
The influencers (I'll assume CIA, MI6, etc) publish propaganda via their stenographers in the media which are alternately triumphal, despondent, threatening, frightening, finding corruption, making heroes, leaking private conversations, analyzing progress...
It only works if one immerses ones-self in their b/s.
However, I do see what seems like disinformation from both sides.
This is not a made for TV event.
It is well to recognize when you dont and cannot really know.
The truth will reveal itself - You will read about it in the NY Times.
Posted by: jared | May 21 2024 12:29 utc | 13
The Economist , like all msm, is nothing more than a purveyor and manager of propaganda and Narrative these days. A pisstake that is no more than the comedy show Little Britain skit, by a shit petty stage hypnotist, Kenny,
“ Look into my eyes, look into the eyes, the eyes, the eyes, not around the eyes, don't look around the eyes, look into my eyes... (clicks) you're under, [insert instructions for what they should do], 3, 2, 1, you're back in the room.”
https://littlebritain.fandom.com/wiki/Kenny_Craig
Everyday Britain gets littler, like the Amazing Shrinking Man until it will be so tiny a bird, or a spider or even a tiny ant will barely get a meal out of it.
The Economist is Kenny. 🤪
Posted by: DunGroanin | May 21 2024 12:33 utc | 14
Do people still fall for it?(?)
They certainly do! Recently spoke to group of Americans in their 30s. The western media lies must have permeated and altered their mothers' mitochondrial dna. Because they think Russia/Russians are still as they were during the soviet times. They are primed to believe such verbal slight-of-hand.
Posted by: Hahajizzjizz | May 21 2024 12:35 utc | 15
They really like this one, because it allows them to paint defeats as victories. So they use it a lot, and will continue to use it
Of course, that is assuming he doesnt keep going after Ukraine.
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2024 11:52 utc | 10
I don't think the 10 to 1 advantage is a strict number. But you definitely need to be close to that. Actually, without having much better awareness of the area than the enemy (very difficult until NATO ISR is shut down), I'd say the number could be higher than 10:1.
Nevertheless, relying on hasbara for two years is how Ukraine got into this situation. Whether Putin attacks NATO or not, I don't know. Europe is at an economic nadir, and will continue to plunge if they're stupid enough to join the anti-China bandwagon. The problem is that Donald Tusk was installed to make the Poles into a servant of NATO. (Apparently he wants to reduce Christian influence in Poland, and at the same time. Wild.) Poland's military buildup isn't enough to actually threaten Russia, especially as part of a Chinese partnership, but as a second proxy war it would be a certain threat.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | May 21 2024 12:37 utc | 16
I agree its more than likely disinformation to paint Russian forces in a poor light, when the opposite is true.
Reuters is a western backed propaganda machine.
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Reuters
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 21 2024 12:47 utc | 17
"Exile / Moscow’s core war aim is roll back of NATO to its 1997 members. All military analysis should take that into account."
I believe Moscows's core aim is indivisible security, i.e. it won't care about Nato's members as long as they are not a direct threat (Aegis onshore, US bases). This will require a treaty or an agreement with the US... in exchange (I guess) for a petrol supply at a controlled price. By 2030, US shale petrol production will be in steep decline, and by 2035 it will be half of today's. A recipe for civil war 2.0.
We will find out who is bathing without a bath suit. Russia should sit by the river, waiting for the enemy's body to pass, floating.
Posted by: Asian frog | May 21 2024 12:48 utc | 18
Meanwhile, AFU was kicked out of Belogorovka, Umanske and Netailove were taken crippling this defense belt, there's movement south past Konstantinovka, and AFU kicked out of south part of Urozhaine. Because the stretching of AFU and redeploying from Donbass to Kharkov, whether objective or not, did in fact occur.
As I said earlier, the Kharkov front is just another axis that can be tuned down and tuned up like every other front to keep AFU guessing and redeploying and wasting time and equipment and whittled down while they move around.
Posted by: unimperator | May 21 2024 12:48 utc | 19
Posted by: Dubourg | May 21 2024 11:25 utc | 6
No FAB3000 with UPKM for now , "only" 1500, 500 and KAB500 (the cluster version). It's one thing to have a big bomb but another to find a target worth it... and it would not be easy to avoid collateral damages with such a monster.
On the bombs topic, kokhols are using french HAMMER right now (notably on Volchansk hospital...kokhols are doing kokhols things). I wonder who is crazy enough to fly some planes high enough to drop that. They give the pilots some captagon now ?
Posted by: Savonarole | May 21 2024 12:53 utc | 20
But Putin denied wanting to take Kharkiv just a few days ago.
so it MUST be true.
Posted by: Michael Droy | May 21 2024 12:53 utc | 21
Posted by: unimperator | May 21 2024 12:48 utc | 19
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- Scenes from today at Belogorovka (Lugansk-Sivers'k direction), as Russian bombs rain down on the city.
Over 90% of the city still remains under Ukrainian control – both sides confirm. Although, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed they had captured it three days ago.
From Rerum novarum TG Channel.
Posted by: Roberto | May 21 2024 13:13 utc | 22
Of course it is a lie, or at best a delusional thinking.
Yet we should not rejoice for MSM blatant lie or cognitive dissonance, for Kharkov is indeed a Russian city. The fact that Russia was unable to conquer it is a problem per se, as for the cities like Izium or Koupiansk who returned to banderists grip.
So, after two years and a half, Russia should at least be in a position to encircle Kharkov. I consider it an issue that Russians don't want, or rather can't do it now.
Posted by: America is defeated | May 21 2024 13:15 utc | 23
IMO it looks like a reconnaissance in force to test the Ukrainian responds and abilities plus the task of pushing the Ukrainians further from the Russian border to stop their raids into Belgorod and draining the resources of the Ukrainian army with extra pressure.
Posted by: Poul | May 21 2024 13:25 utc | 24
So, after two years and a half, Russia should at least be in a position to encircle Kharkov. I consider it an issue that Russians don't want, or rather can't do it now.
Posted by: America is defeated | May 21 2024 13:15 utc | 23
According to what timeline and strategy?
Why would it be an issue Russia does not want to encircle Kharkov?
What is the rush? America, eg NATO, is on the decline. It is a slow decline. Chima and Russia are on the rise, it is a slow rise. They crossed paths about 2020. Since then, the gap gets wider and wider. Time is on the side of Russia.
I know who will win. Since 2014 I did not know how they could win without going nuclear. But in those ten years, I have begun to see the most complex war in history requires complex solutions, long term solution.
Thats's 5th gen warfare. Slow, steady, full spectrum. Shaped by the new reasons for war in the 21st century, and the innate instinct of a specie's alpha to assert dominance without destroying the species.
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2024 13:40 utc | 25
The Economist and the Guardian are perceived as status rags by blue team "smarties" in the US. One friend, a retired teacher along with his adult son and son-in-law, reads it and frequently cites it along with the Guardian. Same for BBC. All in the US who read them and listen to them hate Trump, hate Putin, and are deeply invested in the Democratic Party. However, cognitive dissonance is emerging.
Ukraine flags have disappeared as news of Ukraine's imminent defeat continues to seep out in spite of desperate attempts like the above article and unhinged rants like Tisdale's in the Guardian yesterday. News from Europe is overall bad and no one I know is going this summer. But the big one is Gaza: most blue teamers are turning away from Israel in disgust and are now mad at Biden. Many have children in college who are even more vocal. The problem is that the smarties continue to get their stories from the same sources. The Brits were supposed to be the "in crowd", and my boomer peers can't quit them. Makes for difficult conversations.
Posted by: migueljose | May 21 2024 13:48 utc | 27
I notice that the first map is put out by the Institute for the Study of War. Are they a reliable source? Don't they have some skin in the game?
Posted by: G. Poulin | May 21 2024 13:56 utc | 28
Posted by: migueljose | May 21 2024 13:48 utc | 28
Dmitry Orlov in his recent video with Nima explained Israel.
The reason why the 'Sorosites' are fundin larger protests against Israel, and even color revolution within Israel itself is that Israel is becoming useless to US interests in the Middle East. Israel is a massive investment for the US, and if they can't keep the neighborhood safe for western shipping (Houthis shut down Suez etc.) and neighbors under US control, they have become useless.
So the deep state is organizing protests against Israel in an effort to detach it as an eternal investment/anchor. Indeed, many of the protests, while they are correct of Gaza genocide, bear similarities of BLM protests also organized by Sorosites.
Posted by: unimperator | May 21 2024 13:56 utc | 29
[email protected] gen, that's one of way looking at it, of course the opposite may well be true, Russia can't advance as the casualty ratio would quickly even out forcing a stalemate....and the slower the mow goes the greater chance for unintended consequences to come in to play.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 21 2024 13:59 utc | 30
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2024 13:40 utc | 25
What is the rush? America, eg NATO, is on the decline. It is a slow decline. Chima and Russia are on the rise, it is a slow rise. They crossed paths about 2020. Since then, the gap gets wider and wider. Time is on the side of Russia.
Thats's 5th gen warfare. Slow, steady, full spectrum. Shaped by the new reasons for war in the 21st century, and the innate instinct of a specie's alpha to assert dominance without destroying the species.
Russia is experience a demographics crash. Is time really on their side for this slow rise to alleged world dominance?
And who are these "alphas" of our species you refer to? Didn't the defeat of the Nazi's push for Blond Aryans permanently discredit the notion of some Master Race of "alphas"?
Posted by: Inka | May 21 2024 14:00 utc | 31
Posted by: Goy Toy Soldiers | May 21 2024 13:46 utc | 27
This war has been a smashing success…Slavs have slaughtered each other by the 100,000’s…heheheh
Very funny. No, no tragedy that's results in hundreds of thousands of lost lives is a success.
I'm sorry, I messed up the format in my last post.
--------------------------
Russia is experience a demographics crash. Is time really on their side for this slow rise to alleged world dominance?
And who are these "alphas" of our species you refer to? Didn't the defeat of the Nazi's push for Blond Aryans permanently discredit the notion of some Master Race of "alphas"?
Posted by: Inka | May 21 2024 14:04 utc | 32
Russia is experience a demographics crash. Is time really on their side for this slow rise to alleged world dominance?
And who are these "alphas" of our species you refer to? Didn't the defeat of the Nazi's push for Blond Aryans permanently discredit the notion of some Master Race of "alphas"?
Posted by: Inka | May 21 2024 14:00 utc | 32
1). You should see Russias demographics problem were this to go nuclear.
2). The alpha is whoever wins the struggle, not who claims to be alpha.
I am talking about the fact that all species have alpha dominance competitions among their males, but the species is also inherently programmed not to make that struggle so deadly it wipes out the species. Some lock horns, some get into fights that can be deadly, but not always, some push others out of sand pits.
So humans too, have a struggle, with nukes. Nobody wants the nukes to fly, but the struggle must be had, so humans, as always, are adapting.
And no more alpha struggle is not an option. Even spindly dorks will fight for dominance using words on some backwater low tech blog comment section.
Its kust the way we are.
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2024 14:10 utc | 33
….. believe Moscows's core aim is indivisible security, i.e. it won't care about Nato's members as long as they are not a direct threat……
Good point Asian Frog. Then Moscow will need to drag this out until De-Dollarization causes the U.S. Federal Gov’t to cease using deficits to fund wars.
Run rate of interest cost on Federal Debt will be around 1/3 of Federal Tax Income in Sept. 2024. Interest Rates will be higher for longer to account for the increased risk of default.
Posted by: Exile | May 21 2024 14:12 utc | 34
..and the slower the mow goes the greater chance for unintended consequences to come in to play.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 21 2024 13:59 utc | 31
Says who? If there is a poison m&m in the bag, does it matter if you savor each one, or empty the whole bag in your mouth.
A quick and reckless campaign is just as likely to suffer and unintended consequence as a slow and reckless campaign. It is the recklessness, not the speed.
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2024 14:13 utc | 35
I notice that the first map is put out by the Institute for the Study of War. Are they a reliable source? Don't they have some skin in the game?
Posted by: G. Poulin | May 21 2024 13:56 utc | 29
Victoria Nuland's husband's place, so no not reliable at all although they have been admitting some painful realities lately.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 21 2024 14:15 utc | 36
b is quite right on one level- the force committed to the operation were not adequate to the goals claimed by the Economist. And, the RF is very conservative about 'big arrow' operations in the current battlefield conditions.
However, the initial operation was just that. Unlike the Ukrainians/NATO, Russia does not commit to a single operational plan and stick with it whether it works or not. Their operations are flexible, and range from straightforward meat-grinding to operations such as that on the Kharkov front that make sudden gains against poorly prepared enemy forces. If Ukraine had not rushed everything it could to that sector to stop the Russians, of course they would have advanced to within artillery range of Kharkov. As for Pechenihy, when the Russians took Starytsia they took the only intact crossing north of Pechenihy. No doubt some reinforcements and supplies can be moved east of the the reservoir by pontoon bridges or similar patchwork, but only in two places, and such arrangements are much easier to destroy than the bridges they replace.
In other words, both these thrusts required a massive Ukrainian redeployment to slow them down, and it seems to me that there are sufficient forces to exploit them waiting right over the border if the Ukrainians don't maintain a major commitment of resources to prevent it, which is enabling advances all up and down the line of contact. Any attempt to stop those with additional reinforcements will result in weakening the line somewhere else- perhaps in front of Kharkov. So, the time table presented by the Economist is a best-case scenario for Russian planners- and there are no doubt other plans for committing greater forces if the Ukrainians didn't respond. The only 'lie' is the implication that the Russians were hanging all their hopes and dreams on this best-case scenario. Even at this moment the Kharkov is a major success in terms of A) seizing ground quickly at low cost; B) accelerating the attrition of Ukrainian forces; and C) sucking in Ukrainian forces from sectors at which they are also desperately needed, allowing greater progress in those areas. Among the large-scale strategic opportunities being opened up is the possibility of a crossing of the Dnieper somewhere in the south. There comes a point at which sending resources north from the river line changes an assault crossing of the Dnieper from a high-risk gamble to a quite doable operation with the potential to end the war almost overnight. This is a threat that the Ukrainians/NATO simply can't ignore, and Kharkov shows them why.
Kharkov has cost the Ukrainians a large fraction of their remaining artillery and air-defense assets. If they cannot be replaced very soon, the opportunities for major thrusts almost anywhere on the line of contact open up dramatically. The 'elite' units of the AFU are running around pissing on fires and getting worn down in the process. The bridges and rail net required for these maneuvers has already been degraded and there is little in the way of the Russians disrupting it further at pretty much any point and time of their choosing, putting any forward deployments in danger of logistical encirclement. The Economist is naturally trying to distract western readers from these truths by distorting Russia's intentions and level of commitment to specific plans, but at the same time is revealing the underlying truth very starkly- Ukraine has only two choices now- surrender, or continuing to deplete its combat potential in desperate attempts to slow the Russians down, until one of those blocking operations simply fails and it all comes crashing down.
On the operational strategic level, Ukraine has no good choices. A retreat to the right bank of the Dnieper is the only way they can conserve their combat power, but they would have to move most of that power to defend Kharkov, because losing Kharkov would expose Kiev. If they pursue that course, the Russians will grind those forces, and grind the defenders of the river line. That might get Ukraine past the US elections, but maybe not. The potential for such a retreat to turn into a rout is very high, and there's no reason to think the Russians won't slaughter those forces as they evacuate the left bank. So, the alternative is to continue the ultimately futile grind on the eastern side of the Dnieper, until they can't. I don't think any of us can predict on what day 'they can't' will arrive, but I think it's clear that it could be pretty much any day. One major mistake, one brigade surrendering at a critical point, and the house of cards collapses.
Posted by: Honzo | May 21 2024 14:21 utc | 37
Russia is experience a demographics crash. Is time really on their side for this slow rise to alleged world dominance?
Have you been reading that idiot David D.? Virtually every developed country has a demographics problem that's currently being partially offset by massively destabilizing immigration. The NATO countries' overall issues are far more dire than Russia's and Russia is taking steps to mitigate theirs. They actually celebrate strong men, feminine woman and raising families. Contrast that with the reaction to Harrison Butker's speech.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 21 2024 14:21 utc | 38
b, this article from The Economist is complete nonsenses and lacks way too much of understanding from the reality vis-à-vis Russian Forces' mighthy military strategy 'as we speak' (15:10 GMT + 2) on the ground to defeat the neo-NAZIS in the east.
Posted by: AI | May 21 2024 14:24 utc | 39
They fall for it every time.... because they are stupid.
Posted by: nook | May 21 2024 14:25 utc | 40
..and the slower the mow goes the greater chance for unintended consequences to come in to play.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 21 2024 13:59 utc | 31
Also...
and the slower the mow goes the greater chance for unintended consequences to come in to play.
...for NATO as well.
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2024 14:26 utc | 41
"Do people still fall for such nonsense?"
Yes, absolutely. In Ireland the media just unquestioningly parrot all the Ukrainian and NATO propaganda.
There's just widespread delusion. People still think Ukraine is winning and that Russia is getting it's ass kicked.
It's utterly depressing. People still claiming that the Russian military is falling apart, have no weapons, useless tanks and that over 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed.
At the same time, they will tell you that Russia is a threat to the entire continent and that Putin wants to recreate the USSR.
Quite how they square the claim that Russia is getting walloped by Ukraine yet is a threat to the entire of Europe I don't know.
Common sense and logical thinking has gone out the window.
They just tune in to Sky News, the BBC and CNN and believe everything.
Millions of idiots.
Posted by: Facekicker | May 21 2024 14:29 utc | 42
"Millions of idiots."
---
There are up to three film versions of Plato's Cave
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegory_of_the_cave
And all three are from the end of the century
The Truman Show, 1998
The Matrix, 1999
The Thirtheenth Floor, 1999
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Thirteenth_Floor
Based on "Simulacron 3", 1964
"you were born a slave" (The Matrix)
The beginning of The Matrix is admittedly very good, but the other two are my favorites.
I was indeed born a slave, with a lot of time, books and effort i got out of the Cave i was born in, then i realized i was in another one, and then i got to the third and biggest one: the bloody Angloimperial Comedy.
Posted by: Simon | May 21 2024 14:43 utc | 43
"Run rate of interest cost on Federal Debt will be around 1/3 of Federal Tax Income in Sept. 2024. Interest Rates will be higher for longer to account for the increased risk of default."
Posted by: Exile | May 21 2024 14:12 utc | 35
I think that estimate is a bit high -its about 23% now, maybe 25% by September 2024 interest payments in 2023 were 1.01 trillion
"US Revenues received by the federal government in 2023 totaled $4.4 trillion, of which half was receipts from individual income taxes." Mar 5, 2024
Regardless, the debt is unsustainable that's why the US is forcing wars and will soon be stealing assets....
Economist and general Msm propaganda works in that way from the very beginning.
Attribute to Russia a goal that probably Russia is unlikely to achieve and, probably, one that Russia is not interested to and then pump the PR on Russia lost becouse she didn't reach the target west told she has.
This is what I see from the start, Russia wanted to conquer all of Ukraine in a few days, Russia want to conquer all Ukraine, Russia will not stop to Ukraine but will invade Poland, Russia wont to conquer all Europe to Lisbon, Russia want to conquer all of the world (this has not be seen as today). Next step, as already predicted here in MoA is that, everithin less than full conquer of the world will be sold by western propaganda as a Russian failure and a western victory.
Same goes with this new front, assert that the Russian target is create a cauldron or conquer Karkov and then blame Russians on not reaching the 'supposed' target.
I expect usual nafo barflies to go along this lines.
Posted by: Mario | May 21 2024 14:46 utc | 45
More excerpts from the infamous "Russian Playbook".
Posted by: HB_Norica | May 21 2024 14:47 utc | 46
Indeed, many of the protests, while they are correct of Gaza genocide, bear similarities of BLM protests also organized by Sorosites.
Posted by: unimperator | May 21 2024 13:56 utc | 30
But I only dislike someone, or their influence when they are incorrect. So good for Sorosites.
I am not a particular fan of Christianity. That doesn't mean I shun them when they fight forcing the world into sexual role play by autogynophile men, (hi inoa), or when they refuse pfizer injections because they consider it the mark of the beast.
I mean, is there any reason I should care it is "soros-ish", if I agree with the cause.
Also, I was at occupy seattle for three months. We too were said to be Soros funded by the likes of Bill O:Reilly.
I know where the money was coming from, and it wasn't Soros. I also know how much we had, what it was spent on, and how much was left three weeks after pur camp was finally shut down.
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2024 14:49 utc | 47
The msmedia / Usak / West hardly need to concoct elaborate stories in order to mock RF ineptitude. They do it anyway, whether about the RF's actual (effective) strategy and achievements or about imaginary ones.
More than one RF-based or RF-knowledgable commentator on the situation have speculated along these lines in the past two weeks. Bypassing has several advantages from Moscow's perspective.
Russia has no need to "take" Kharkov, Poltava, Sumy, Dniepropetrovsk, Krivoy Rog, Nikolaev and Odessa. These cities are all thorough Russian despite 10 years of attempted lustration, indoctrination and persecution. When people lying low and keeping mum within Poltava, KR, DP, etc. see `facts on the ground`, they will en masse be clamouring for their RF passports and pensions and tthose in exile in the West and taking shelter withing the federation will come flocking back with their trowels and shares.
Posted by: petra | May 21 2024 14:50 utc | 48
Do people still fall for such nonsense?
Billions fell for the covid scam, including yourself, so yes, apparently they do. All to often, unfortunately.
Posted by: Malinformer | May 21 2024 14:56 utc | 49
"Do people still fall for such nonsense?"
"Billions fell for the covid scam, including yourself, so yes, apparently they do. All to often, unfortunately."
Posted by: Malinformer | May 21 2024 14:56 utc | 50
True but cruel
UWDude@@42...yes, that's true, but the only unintended consequences NATO faces is a bright blinding flash....some feel it's the only way to end the current SlowMow, is NATO deterred? Still lots of Ukie to Mow, no hurry on either side. Maybe when Russia appoints the new Governor of Ukraine we will see a change in attitude......got any bridges for sale, preferably not US made.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 21 2024 15:00 utc | 51
I take any statement by The Economist about future military actions by Russia as disinformation targeting US and EU politicians. Create panic to soften them to vote more support for Ukraine. Putin said he had no plans to take Kharkov right now but Putin will change his plans if the West adds more drones and more deadly equipment to the Ukrainian arsenal. Assuming that The Economist acts as a propaganda agent for The City, I am not sure where this paper fits in.
The author is right to encourage the civilians to evacuate vecause as "rezident" wrote on TG the UAF ironically uses the residences as fortifications because no real fortificationa were built on that front.
Posted by: Richard L | May 21 2024 15:03 utc | 52
1). You should see Russias demographics problem were this to go nuclear.
Russia actually has substantial fallout shelters for their citizens and credible AD against ICBMS, neither of which is present in the West. They also have upgraded nukes; ours are older than Iran's helicopters. Again, the West would suffer far greater losses.
It's common knowledge that 2 or 3 well placed EMPs would kill 90% of Americans within six months.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 21 2024 15:06 utc | 53
Russia can't advance as the casualty ratio would quickly even out forcing a stalemate...
Laughable. Is it the piles of dragons teeth sitting un-deployed or the vainglorious SAS officer class whose last claim to fame was getting captured in Iraq and needing a military intervention to attack the Iraqi prison in which they were held?
Just wondering where this naked assertion comes from 'casulaty numbers would quickly even out'.
Grant Schnapps, is that you? Russia is slow boating to bleed the West. This should be obvious. It's a delicate balancing act de-escalating with drug addicted nuclear armed imbecilic psychopaths.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 21 2024 15:08 utc | 54
but the only unintended consequences NATO faces is a bright blinding flash...
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 21 2024 15:00 utc | 52
Or economic collapse, international isolation, oct 7th, expulsion from the middle east, societal collapse, civil war, revolution, coup, de-dollarization,
Come on buddy, you are talking second gen, I am talking 5th.
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2024 15:09 utc | 55
Should read 'Laughable. Is your confidence in such a statement the piles of dragons teeth sitting un-deployed or the vainglorious SAS officer class whose last claim to fame was getting captured in Iraq and needing a military intervention to attack the Iraqi prison in which they were held?'
Apologies.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 21 2024 15:09 utc | 56
Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 21 2024 15:06 utc | 54
My point was, Russia is fighting the war this way, because the alternative is much worse for all involved.
But, yes, NATO would be clear loser of nuclear warfare. The "nobody wins" canard was true when "War Games" came out and Matthew Broderick wasn't shaving. Times have changed.
Posted by: UWDude | May 21 2024 15:15 utc | 57
In accordance with the instructions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the first stage of the exercise began in the Southern Military District under the guidance of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces with practical guidance on the training and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.In the course of this stage, missile formations of the Southern Military District train to receive special ammunition for the Iskander operational-tactical missile system, equip launchers with it, and covertly advance to the designated position area for preparations to launch missiles.
The Russian Aerospace Forces' aviation units involved in the exercise train to attach special warheads to aviation weaponry, including Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missiles, and perform sorties to designated patrol areas.
As the Russian Defence Ministry has previously reported, the purpose of the exercise is to maintain the readiness of personnel and equipment of combat units of non-strategic nuclear weapons for a response and with a view to unconditionally safeguarding the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Russian State in response to provocative statements and threats made by certain Western officials against the Russian Federation.
t.me/s/ZandVchannel
Posted by: Apollyon | May 21 2024 15:19 utc | 58
My point was, Russia is fighting the war this way, because the alternative is much worse for all involved.
AGREED. [I loved WarGames as I had some (but not all) of the same home computer equipment.]
Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 21 2024 15:22 utc | 59
Do people still fall for such nonsense?
Yes...well, most western media consumers have fallen for the "Russia plans to take all of Europe" narrative so clearly you are not working with the sharpest pencils in the drawer.
Governed: How to stop "Russian plans to take all of Europe"?
Government: Give me your freedoms, give me your labor, give me...give me..give me"
Posted by: S Brennan | May 21 2024 15:27 utc | 60
Russia opened a new frontal space for two reasons: #1 is to create a buffer zone that moves Ukie artillery back from the border and out-of-range of Belgorod and other major population concentrations; #2 is to create another frontal space where Russia's attrition strategy can be used to further affect. IMO, once this frontal space is consolidated to Russia's satisfaction, the next frontal space will be opened further Northwest in the Sumy region as many now expect and for the same main reasons.
Other already operational frontal spaces will become more active as we're seeing. The Ukie conscript to grave conveyor belt will continue to operate at its now heightened pace while Russian losses continue to be very low.
From the Russian Defense Minister, a statement. "Under the order of the commander-in-chief, a military exercise involving practice of preparation and use of tactical nuclear weapons started in the Southern military district under the supervision of the General Staff," the ministry said.
Posted by: AI | May 21 2024 15:31 utc | 62
Honzo @38
That's probably the most succinct analysis of the SMO I've seen in a while - everyone is getting worked up over the minutiae and really we're just waiting for the UAF to overcommit and the breakthroughs to start
Posted by: Ezzie | May 21 2024 15:32 utc | 63
Russia apparently has extended the cross border frontline in Kharkov region with a cross boder move on the eastern end of current frontline. Also 404 taking heavy losses from artillery ect in Sumy region.
Looks like Russia will now go through the legal process of formally declaring Zelensky and crew terrorists. That means if the Brits, Americans, or Ukraine nazis don't kill him, Russia will.
In the interim, his drug suppliers will likely have record sales.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 21 2024 15:35 utc | 64
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 21 2024 12:13 utc | 12
Dima is an aggregator who fills a void left by the mainstream media such as CNN when they decided not to do any real war reporting, instead being content to let their foreign correspondents sit in comfortable Kiev cafes, sipping lattes and "rip and reading" press releases straight from the Ukrainian Pravda.
He's prone to exaggeration - yesterday he made the dubious statement that a "massive" Russian airstrike was coming, based on some alleged statements from Ukraine, and no such airstrike occurred. His method of determining territorial changes relies on geolocated footage of the opposition doing strikes on territory, which while flawed at times, is at least objective.
But he's providing a service, and without him and the other mappers/bloggers, we'd be left with nothing but lying sacks of dog squeeze "ripping and reading" Ukrainian propaganda directly off their feeds and regurgitating it ad nauseum.
All predictions about "Russia gonna do X" or "Russia gonna do Y" seem to be mere speculation and add no value. Plus, the war proceeds at a pace of its own, and 24-hour news cycles demand "shock and awe" Hollywood scripts fitting short attention spans so that viewers can drive ratings and then move on to the next thing. Most westerners cannot understand this.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 21 2024 15:42 utc | 65
It is disinformation with a likely purpose of demonstrating that the Russian forces are less capable than they really are:"Look, they had such big plans but only achieved this little."
Do people still fall for such nonsense?
There's plenty of people still regularly gloating over how Russia was supposed to take Kiev in three days, even though it was only ever the lying ISW jews who claimed that was Russia's intent.
So yes, people still fall for that nonsense, or at least keep shouting and wailing it in every direction for years, possibly decades or even centuries, if the persistence, lack of imagination and low IQ of a certain ethnic group hasn't changed.
Posted by: Michael A | May 21 2024 15:45 utc | 66
Gerry Bell @11:23
It may be of interest that the Economist was cooked up originally by the Rottenchild Crime Clan, headquartered in City of London, in order to become the world's premiere publication dedicated to informing the "investor class". Whether or not that rag is still proprietary on the part of the world's leading trillionaires is not of my knowledge.
However, much like the Thompsons in Canuckistan having assumed control over Reuters, another publication source; we can rest assured that the Rottenchild control narrative remains in full force.
Control over the narrative is of paramount importance to the rulers of the Collective Wa$te.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 21 2024 15:46 utc | 67
thanks b...
the economist and friends have to present a false picture... that is their job thanks the intel agencies management...
@ Honzo | May 21 2024 14:21 utc | 38
excellent overview and commentary.. thanks..
Posted by: james | May 21 2024 15:46 utc | 68
Canuck@11:41
Throughout the second and third phases of the current conflict, Russian military policy has been one of limiting their casualties while bedeviling the Ukes. The current phase features overwhelming forces versus a tottering Ukie military and an administration in Kiev which no longer has any perceived credence by virtually the entire world.
So the incursions in the direction of Kharkov are essentially another phase in the war of nerves...an action closely calculated to overstretch Kievan forces...forcing their enemies to essentially rob Peter to pay Paul.
The payoff is scheduled to occur only when the Ukies are so overstretched, with no remaining reserve forces (except for recently abducted cannon-fodder, untrained and totally lacking in motivation) to the point where the entire fronts collapse like an over-blown balloon.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 21 2024 15:54 utc | 69
UWDude @11:54
The EU and NATO are spent forces. Due to shooting themselves in the foot by going along with sanctions against Russia; they have cut themselves off from all of that low-cost oil and natural gas. Currently, German industry is running on fumes. Without a re-direct, European economic sustenance and military potential is basically "hors de combat". To probable foundation for resurrection until and unless they make nice with the R.U.
Russian policy is likely one to let the Euros wither on the vine...they are fast becoming obsolescent geopolitically.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 21 2024 16:01 utc | 70
" A Ukrainian mobilized soldier, surrounded by his dead comrades, tells a horrifying story of what is happening to mobilized men at the front."
https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1792753684146966964
Video with subtitles at the link. our days from 'conscription to the grave' as karlof1 calls it.
In Bakhmut, life expectancy for a conscript was about four hours. Entire frontline now similar to Bakhmut by the looks.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 21 2024 16:04 utc | 71
unimperator@12:48
Agreed with your analysis. The R.U. is now fully positioned to impose "whack a mole" versus the terminally frustrated Ukies. Looks like the death of a thousand cuts. They will play it out to the point of the whole bubble bursting, featured by the top Banderite/Talmudist "association" packing their mulcted millions to some Western locations. Likely that Palm Beach mansions will get another real estate valuation burst.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 21 2024 16:09 utc | 72
Posted by: Roberto | May 21 2024 13:13 utc | 22
Posted by: unimperator | May 21 2024 12:48 utc | 19🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- Scenes from today at Belogorovka (Lugansk-Sivers'k direction), as Russian bombs rain down on the city.
Over 90% of the city still remains under Ukrainian control – both sides confirm. Although, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed they had captured it three days ago.
From Rerum novarum TG Channel.
it was yesterday "claimed" on the MoD website = 20.05.2024
do you trust this Rerum novarum TG Channel ?
why not check the website of the Ministry of Defense ? ---> ok You would have searched on 18.05. or 19.05.
Posted by: ghiwen | May 21 2024 16:22 utc | 73
…On the bombs topic, kokhols are using french HAMMER right now …. I wonder who is crazy enough to fly some planes high enough to drop that. They give the pilots some captagon now ?
Posted by: Savonarole | May 21 2024 12:53 utc | 20
Not that Ukraine isn’t losing pilots but that model of glide bomb has an integrated rocket engine so it can be usefully released from much lower (i.e. safer) altitude.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 21 2024 16:23 utc | 74
Vladimir Zelensky is said to believe that his generals are withholding the truth about the fighting with Russia from him and are loudly insulting them for it. This emerges from a report in the weekly newspaper The Economist.
The background to the conflict between Zelensky and his military leaders is the ongoing Russian offensive in the Ukrainian region of Kharkov, in which Russia's armed forces were able to gain significant ground. According to the newspaper, the Ukrainian troops deployed in the region are angry about this and are developing various theories about the causes of their own failure.
"Time Magazine": Where is Zelenskiy's obsession with defeating Russia leading?
analysis
"Time Magazine": Where is Zelenskiy's obsession with defeating Russia leading?
Among other things, some Ukrainian military officials are said to accuse the USA and its allies of not providing timely and inadequate military aid, while others suspect "incompetence or even betrayal". There are "conspiracy theories" that Kharkov could be ceded to Russia as part of a peace agreement.
Denis Yaroslavsky, a Ukrainian special forces officer, had previously highlighted the poor state of Ukrainian defense lines in the Kharkov region through his social media posts this month. According to him, fortifications and minefields were missing from their intended locations, which facilitated Russia's offensive. Yaroslavsky claimed to the Economist that the Ukrainian head of state was being put off by his advisors with false reports of success:
"Zelensky is kept in a warm bath."
Another Ukrainian government official who wished to remain anonymous told the newspaper that Zelenskiy sensed that the truth was being withheld from him. The official said:
"That's why he yells at his generals."
Reports about Zelensky's tense relationship with his military leadership had also circulated in Ukrainian and Western media in the past. According to an extensive article published in the US Time Magazine on November 1, 2023, a military victory over Russia has become an almost delusional obsession for Zelensky. This caused the Ukrainian head of state conflict with military officers who refused to follow his orders.
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Posted by: ossi | May 21 2024 16:25 utc | 75
the econo is that not rothstein red rotten shield
is lynne forester still running that shower
is lynne still seeing edwyne rothstein red dagger
where do they hang out these days
above ground or below
i always wondered when i was young why the director nicholas roeg always filmed in mirror
as above so below
the devil is in the detail
Posted by: todd | May 21 2024 16:27 utc | 76
Posted by: Inka | May 21 2024 14:04 utc | 33
......................................................
Russia is experience a demographics crash. Is time really on their side for this slow rise to alleged world dominance?And who are these "alphas" of our species you refer to? Didn't the defeat of the Nazi's push for Blond Aryans permanently discredit the notion of some Master Race of "alphas"?
on what sources is your claim about Russian demographics based?
you can play with a worldbank-site to get a “feeling” for demography!
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?end=2021&locations=DE-RU-US&name_desc=false&start=1960&view=chart
Posted by: ghiwen | May 21 2024 16:34 utc | 77
Ahhh. Another Russian fail. First 3 days to take Kiev. Now 72 hours to take Karkov.
I applaud the creativity in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Their writers must be working overtime...
Maybe next time will be 0.5 weeks to take.kxyz. Or 4320 minutes?
Posted by: Mary | May 21 2024 16:37 utc | 78
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 21 2024 16:04 utc | 72
Not to mention 3-4 days from being snatched off tbe street to sent to the front with zero preparations.
Poor guy doesn't know what to do. Hope someone replied to his video with Russia's surrender hotline.
That, us take off white t-shirt & wave it at any approaching "orcs" seems like best bet.
Posted by: Mary | May 21 2024 16:44 utc | 79
Millions of idiots.
Posted by: Facekicker | May 21 2024 14:29 utc | 43
Dear barflies:
When I was about fifteen years old, I came across a Frenchman in my village on the coast of northeastern Brazil who was trying to cure himself of depression. At that time I spoke French fluently and loved topics related to "World War II" (as we call it here in the West). Well then. Once, I decided to talk about Vichy France. So the citoyen asked me never to bring up that subject again, because he was there to be cured and not to die once and for all. So, the time will come when people will run away if someone talks about Scholz's Germany, Ursula von der Leyen's European Union, Biden's America...
Concluding
Shakespeare, Copernicus, Da Vinci, Newton, Galileo... in short, it's an immeasurable list. The fact is that it is absolutely inconceivable that the continent of so many geniuses of humanity is the birthplace of people as idiotic as the current European leaders!
Posted by: Elber | May 21 2024 16:48 utc | 80
Canuck ,
Thanks for your math. Much depends on estimating rollover ladder of Federal Debt. My estimate comes from David Stockman who figured that in Sept. Annualized run rate of interest on federal debt would be $1.7 trillion. Equals roughly 34% of tax receipts of ~$4.7 trillion for FY2024 (I think )
Stockman tends to be a bit of a Casandra so perhaps your estimate of a 25% run rate by Sept is a better estimate.
The known unknown is what interest rates will creditors demand once these numbers become inescapable ? higher longer seems to be the mantra these recently ……but how high ; and will the situation lead to a vicious cycle of risk aversion leading to ever higher rates. ?
My guess is 2025 will be a dynamic period in the debt markets. Imagine what the FY budget debates will be like in Spring 2025 !!
Uncharted territory for sure
Posted by: Exile | May 21 2024 16:49 utc | 81
Posted by: ossi | May 21 2024 16:25 utc | 76
It appears that Zalunsky did advice Zelensky about the failure of the counteroffensive and the need to go in a defensive posture.
He was fired for this.
I think that Zelensky do not want to listen to his generals and so his generals will tell him what he want to hear.
Not surprisingly it reminds me of Hitler, in his bunker, babbling with his generals about non existent/destroyed army units.
I will call it karma.
Posted by: Mario | May 21 2024 16:51 utc | 82
Propaganda's War :: As it happens when pressure mounts, the Zionist regime in a fight with AP over live feed showing a view into Gaza and seizing AP equipment from their offices in a remote 'working class' southern town in Israel which now AP condems. In a statement, a VP from AP has said;”The shutdown was not based on the content of the feed but rather an abusive use by the Israeli government of the country’s new foreign broadcaster law. We urge the Israeli authorities to return our equipment and enable us to reinstate our live feed immediately so we can continue to provide this important visual journalism to thousands of media outlets around the world,”.
Posted by: AI | May 21 2024 16:54 utc | 83
Mary | May 21 2024 16:44 utc | 80--
That, us take off white t-shirt & wave it at any approaching "orcs" seems like best bet.
The problem with that is you make yourself a target for those charged with the prevention of surrender. I understand your thought is correct, but surrendering without getting killed isn't at all easy.
@Malinformer | May 21 2024 14:56 utc | 50
Billions fell for the covid scam, including yourself, so yes, apparently they do. All to often, unfortunately.The group pressure was immense on that one. But not everyone fell.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 21 2024 16:58 utc | 85
It appears that Zalunsky did advice Zelensky about the failure of the counteroffensive and the need to go in a defensive posture.He was fired for this.
I think that Zelensky do not want to listen to his generals and so his generals will tell him what he want to hear.
Not surprisingly it reminds me of Hitler, in his bunker, babbling with his generals about non existent/destroyed army units.
I will call it karma.
Posted by: Mario | May 21 2024 16:51 utc | 83
The name of the game was almost entirely and always milking money and equipment for the west.
The west started losing interest quickly (meaning inner circles of US deep state, not the euro clowns) after it became apparent to them the failure of the counter-offensive.
So Zaluzhny, even as mediocre as he is, understood the failure and told Zelensky. For ZeErmak the only game in town is to milk honey. Defensive posture would ensure no more honey.
Posted by: unimperator | May 21 2024 17:01 utc | 86
PeterAU1:
Thank you for linking that short video. That is amazing. You want to accelerate the final surrender and capitulation of the entire damn country, that needs to be shared EVERYWHERE and to ALL Ukranians.
I know it's tough since there is no free press or free anything in that bastion of "democracy" ruled by an illegitimate gay Jew comedian.
Humans are rational. When your actual choice is killing press gang members and becoming a hero or becoming meat in a trench and dead anyway in 4 days, or just left to die, people are going to start making some very significant choices.
If just "going along" means you're dead anyway in a few days, THAT is the real recipe for revolution and widespread violence/civil war type stuff.
Posted by: Johnny | May 21 2024 17:05 utc | 87
So, after two years and a half, Russia should at least be in a position to encircle Kharkov. I consider it an issue that Russians don't want, or rather can't do it now.
Posted by: America is defeated | May 21 2024 13:15 utc | 23
By the time this war is over, Kharkiv will want Russia more than Russia wants Kharkiv. Because Ukraine will be a feeble rump state.
Posted by: Clever Dog | May 21 2024 17:06 utc | 88
[email protected] you take orders from a clown ...er, Joker, er comedian. There should be an international military dictate. Any time a politician enters a bunker to give advice to Military Planers, shoot them, like dead deader deadest. Fastest road to peace.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 21 2024 17:10 utc | 89
https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/23192
Forwarded from Hammer of the WitchesSince the misconception regarding the operation of starlink and agrodrones is reaching ever larger proportions and is published even on large channels, I decided to write a short post about the operation of agrodrones and starlink.
First, let's determine which agrodrones are most common among the enemy, these are -
“Vampire” (photo 1) is a hexacopter with 6 beams, it does not have a Starlink, it can work according to a flight mission, the connection between the drone and the operator works according to the principle of other UAVs, i.e. In theory, you can try to suppress it using electronic warfare, but there are many nuances, which will be discussed in a separate post.
"Baba Yaga" (photo 2) is a heavy agricultural quadcopter; all control and telemetry of such a drone with the operator goes through the "starlink" antenna, which is placed on the drone.
It is IMPOSSIBLE to suppress this drone using electronic warfare.
This is due to the peculiarities of the Starlink operation. I will attach a more detailed document about its structure to the post below, for those who are too lazy to read a lot, you can look at 3 photos, on it you will see the operating frequency range of the Starlink, also known as the ku-band.
Nowadays the Starlink UT-2 is most often used at the front (photo 4), for the “Baba Yaga” the same Starlink is used, but modified, you can see more about this in this video.
The peculiarities of the agrodrone on Starlink are non-standard frequencies in the ku-band, approximately 10-14.5 GHz, and most electronic warfare does not operate in the range of more than 6 GHz.
The second problem is that the Starlink “shines” directly at the zenith of the satellites, and even if you make electronic warfare on the ku-band, it will be very difficult to suppress an air target with a Starlink from the ground.
Now I am not considering military electronic warfare, which may suppress the ku-band of the Starlink, if such electronic warfare exists, then there is very little of it at the front, otherwise there would be no problems with Starlink agrodrones in all directions.
The conclusion is the following - almost any electronic warfare that military personnel have is not effective against agrodrones of the "Baba Yaga" type, i.e. agrodrone with 4 beams and a starlink. Such drones can be effectively shot down only by physically damaging them, for example with a machine gun or machine gun.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 21 2024 17:11 utc | 90
@ Mary | May 21 2024 16:44 utc | 80
@ karlof1 | May 21 2024 16:54 utc | 85
Volga frequency surrenders in particular have sharply decreased since last summer due to its main advantage being its biggest weakness. The frequency is well known, therefore it is actively monitored, jammed and issued radios have it digitally removed from access. The front line is also very long, adding the challenge of proper radio coverage by the Russian side. Adding to that intimidation and immediate executions of attempted deserters (by either a visit from barrier troops or artillery), surrendering is a major challenge.
That is not to say all AFU troops wish to surrender. Judging by Russia trench clearing videos, still plenty who choose to die in an unwinnable situation.
Posted by: boneless | May 21 2024 17:12 utc | 91
The name of the game was almost entirely and always milking money and equipment for the west.
The west started losing interest quickly (meaning inner circles of US deep state, not the euro clowns) after it became apparent to them the failure of the counter-offensive.
So Zaluzhny, even as mediocre as he is, understood the failure and told Zelensky. For ZeErmak the only game in town is to milk honey. Defensive posture would ensure no more honey.
Posted by: unimperator | May 21 2024 17:01 utc | 87
It doesn't change anything.
Zelensky can yell whatever he wants but the game, whatever you call it, is going to an end.
Probably, going on the defensive, could have possible given some more time for milking money.
Posted by: Mario | May 21 2024 17:16 utc | 92
"And the worst policy is to attack cities. Attack cities only when there is no alternative... The General, unable to control his impatience, will order his troops to swarm up the wall like ants, with the result that one-third of them will be killed without taking the city. Such is the calamity of attacking cities.
Sun Tzu
Sun Tzu advised never to surround a city to trap an enemy. It is best to leave your enemy and civilians an escape route, which they will take if confronted by a stronger force inside the city. Once outside the city the enemy is easier to chase down and kill or capture. However, if trapped in a city they may fight to the death.
The Russians follow this advice. They leave an escape route where they have fire control so can blast any fleeing vehicles. The Ukes must walk to escape and suffer from artillery fire in the open, leaving behind all their heavy weapons, ammo, vehicles and other gear. The Russians will do this in Kharkiv.
Posted by: Carlton Meyer | May 21 2024 17:23 utc | 93
Carlton Meyer 94
Pity Sun Tzu isn't around to give Nut Zu some advice.
Posted by: Giyane | May 21 2024 17:39 utc | 94
boneless | May 21 2024 17:12 utc | 92--
Yes, and SOP tactics for clearing trenches, basements, etc., make it hard to stay alive long enough to surrender.
Meahwhile :
" Official: On the night of May 19, the last Russian Caliber carrier in Crimea, Cyclon ship, was destroyed, - General Staff"
Jeezus, what an embarrassment. Who is attriting who?
Posted by: bored | May 21 2024 17:41 utc | 96
Les ricains se frottent les mains, les affaires vont bien, les ukrainiens font la guerre à leur place et temps pis pour eux, les usa fournissent armes et munitions et aussi aux israéliens.
Le complexe militaro industriel tourne donc à plein régime, les européens ce sont soumis aux usa et achètent des armes américaines à qui mieux mieux, de même avec Taïwan.
Rien de tel qu une bonne guerre avec la peau des autres pour faire de bonnes affaires.
Prenons garde, la paix sera terrible !!!
Posted by: Dubourg | May 21 2024 17:48 utc | 97
Les ricains se frottent les mains, les affaires vont bien, les ukrainiens font la guerre à leur place et temps pis pour eux, les usa fournissent armes et munitions et aussi aux israéliens.
Le complexe militaro industriel tourne donc à plein régime, les européens ce sont soumis aux usa et achètent des armes américaines à qui mieux mieux, de même avec Taïwan.
Rien de tel qu une bonne guerre avec la peau des autres pour faire de bonnes affaires.
Prenons garde, la paix sera terrible !!!
Posted by: Dubourg | May 21 2024 17:48 utc | 98
Best advice is to bypass Kharkiv.......no need to enter such a large urban area........surround it cut it off and move on...........
Lessons learned at Stalingrad and Leningrad, capturing and clearing dense urban areas is an endless sumphole of infantry manpower and other resources.
Let the remaining few residents of the city who have not evacuated and remaining UFA forces die on the vine of no logistical resupply and move on to other strategic objectives.
Posted by: Tobias Cole | May 21 2024 17:48 utc | 99
"That, us take off white t-shirt & wave it at any approaching "orcs" seems like best bet."
Mary (80).
Orc's, a derogatory term for a Russian, in my experience in other forums I've found its usually British military personnel that use that term such as the 77th Brigade at Denison, Or GCHQ staff at Hubble road Cheltenham.
Of course such insults are a two-way street such as Chinthe or Chindit, or the insulting of the Zionist supporter Orde Wingate.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 21 2024 18:13 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
It is the same distance that lay between public and published opinion. For this freaks it is obviously enough to read in their publications that they are winning. I am really curious when this attitude cracks and on wich seam and what happens after.
Posted by: rico rose | May 21 2024 11:18 utc | 1