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A Pessimistic Economist Laments The End Of Order
The magazine for and by multi-millionaires and billionaires, The Economist, warns that the end is imminent:
The liberal international order is slowly coming apart – (archived)
Its collapse could be sudden and irreversible
For years the order that has governed the global economy since the second world war has been eroded. Today it is close to collapse. A worrying number of triggers could set off a descent into anarchy, where might is right and war is once again the resort of great powers. Even if it never comes to conflict, the effect on the economy of a breakdown in norms could be fast and brutal.
It is, in my view, true that the 'liberal international order', which after World War II largely regulated world trade and politics is in demise.
But who's fault is that?
The examples The Economist gives to support its central claim point to one culpable nation:
As we report, the disintegration of the old order is visible everywhere. Sanctions are used four times as much as they were during the 1990s; America has recently imposed “secondary” penalties on entities that support Russia’s armies. A subsidy war is under way, as countries seek to copy China’s and America’s vast state backing for green manufacturing. Although the dollar remains dominant and emerging economies are more resilient, global capital flows are starting to fragment, as our special report explains.
The institutions that safeguarded the old system are either already defunct or fast losing credibility. The World Trade Organisation turns 30 next year, but will have spent more than five years in stasis, owing to American neglect. The IMF is gripped by an identity crisis, caught between a green agenda and ensuring financial stability. The un security council is paralysed. And, as we report, supranational courts like the International Court of Justice are increasingly weaponised by warring parties. Last month American politicians including Mitch McConnell, the leader of Republicans in the Senate, threatened the International Criminal Court with sanctions if it issues arrest warrants for the leaders of Israel, which also stands accused of genocide by South Africa at the International Court of Justice.
It is the U.S., the country which arguably benefited the most from the liberal international order, which is actively destroying it.
Others, if they did not attract random U.S. rage and war against them, also saw some benefits from it. Those small to medium countries will most likely lose out should the current regime collapse.
That would not be unprecedented:
Unfortunately, history shows that deeper, more chaotic collapses are possible—and can strike suddenly once the decline sets in. The first world war killed off a golden age of globalisation that many at the time assumed would last for ever. In the early 1930s, following the onset of the Depression and the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, America’s imports collapsed by 40% in just two years. In August 1971 Richard Nixon unexpectedly suspended the convertibility of dollars into gold; only 19 months later, the Bretton Woods system of fixed-exchange rates fell apart.
Similar ruptures, like the examples above again caused by the U.S., may happen soon.
Interestingly the Economist does not name a solution or way to avoid it. It sees a collapse coming, blames -more or less- the U.S. for causing it, but does not point to way out of it.
That is an uncharacteristically pessimistic view for writers who otherwise like to paint a positive picture for those with big money.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | May 11 2024 1:03 utc | 123
What we’re seeing (in U.S. behaviors) is evidence of a cultural problem: we’ve chosen the wrong values, and let ourselves be seduced by the comfortable.
This is a common problem among rich societies, and we (the U.S.) did _not_ dodge that bullet.
That’s a self-praising criticism (oh we are so rich and comfortable that’s our problem), not a realistic assessment. U.S.A. behaviors are the result of senescence, of ossified social mobility, of lack of competition, and depredation of elites on their subjects. Once the most vibrant and creative community in the world, has substantially deteriorated due to gross errors of management.
What we’re seeing in Russia and China is the willingness to do the difficult, over a long period of time, in the face of vicious opposition. Both societies did their own version of the Long March.
Nah, it’s just that they enjoy the vitality of young capitalist systems. Russia’s and China’s capitalism are a few decades old. Russia started poorly in the 90s but then a genious stateman came and corrected course. China had to endure the fanaticism of the Cultural Revolution but then Mao died and another genious stateman, Deng, came and corrected course.
The key factor is the vitality of the economy. The U.S.A. has run its course in its current configuration, it’s past its shelf lifetime, it needs a thorough re-shuffling (i.e. some sort of revolution) to recover its inherent vitality.
What, culturally, (values widely held, behaviors which implement the values) is so different between China, Russia, Iran, etc. .vs. the U.S.?
I don’t know about Iran but China and Russia have family values, conservative values in general, which combined with strong meritocracy for the best positions in private business and the State and good intellectual ability in the general population, guarantess success. The U.S.A. on the other hand, for reasons of mis-management by short-sighted and greedy elites (which I briefly pointed put to in the 2nd comment in this thread), have abandoned meritocracy to favor diversity, inclusion and equality, and has elevated degenerate sexuality as the paramount kind of freedom. A small but powerful minority in the U.S.A., the Israel lobby, has been the major factor behind this descent into lower standards and general deterioration.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | May 11 2024 8:54 utc | 158
Here in the NW, there is a youtuber named Uneducated Economist who, for years, has been diligently producing podcasts discussing economic theory, FED-Reserve meeting minutes, and his own specialty, lumber prices. Like b, he chooses low-tech and avoids the slick-trappings of those wanting to make a commodity of their wheelhouse.
His last podcast, that he does from the comfort of his older cars, he relates freight numbers in the U.S. and how they are dropping currently from extreme post-pandemic highs.
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There is a phenomenon called doom-scrolling that is really affecting technophiles in this country: basically, you scroll absentmindedly through social media, absorbing all kinds of 1-second blurbs of content and advertising. It is an absolutely dreadful thing. We laugh at the boomers and greatest generation that stared for hours at the t.v., but they had it heads-and-tails over our sorry, colonized asses: they kept their necks and posture straight on the couch/we cock our necks down for hours in bed, thumbing our stupid phones; they had the patience to endure an entire program and advertisements for hours without changing the channel/we flick to the next 10-second video-blurb after a tiny moment of recognition (swiping left or right on Tinder also comes to mind, where we make unconscious judgements that abhor reflections).
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In Psych101 back at community college, I remember the instructor scoffing at questioning his statement that advertisement works on us regardless of our intentions to dismiss them. I said that to understand irony, you learn to laugh, as a default, when presented with images of happiness, contentment, the good life, etc..
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But now I am not so sure. In the past couple years, I remember doom-scrolling through youtube where I would see young, upstart truckers broadcast their daily routine: fill-ups, safety-checks, screening their windows at night to sleep, making a comfort meal in their microwave, turning-down for the evening and watching a movie or playing a video game in their cab.
Altogether, not a bad life, I thought if that is what you seek: introversion and alone-time, to see the U.S., to not have a boss breathing down your neck or micro-managing you.
But, putting everything together now, I see how insidious social media, doom-scrolling, and advertising can be. A couple years ago, they needed truckers, so how about paying these lads to broadcast their life? It’ll get the dissatisfied to line-up to study for their CDL endorsements in no time.
The only problem is, two years later, freight is down, logistic companies have gone out of business, and the economy is on the brink. I imagine that those youtuber, upstart truckers may no longer be needed to broadcast the allure of living solo on the road with hemorrhoids.
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What is the relation between the individual, the economy, the mind, and advertising? A common-denominator binds them.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 11 2024 17:11 utc | 179
It’s great that those at the Economist have begun to face reality. Believe it or not, few realize that it’s the natural end of one horrific chapter & the beginning of a new one – where the woefully dysfunctional human family finally becomes a functional family. The old world order is falling apart, because it must – to make way for a brand new era that will last more than 2,000 years. Russia & China are leading the way. They’ve learned much in the last 100 years & are now in the vanguard. They’re on a natural, evolutionary, perpetual improvement trajectory. The sooner we join them, the better.
The western ruling elite – who have held power for centuries are freaking out now, because their old time worn solutions are no longer working. As controllers of the mass media, they surely want us to be hopeless & divided. Divided/conquered & oblivious to the power they are excercising to create needless chaos & more human suffering than can be measured.
Hiding truth is no longer possible for them. A very large percentage of the masses are thinking & questioning now more than ever. Even most of the formerly unquestioning, gullible masses now recognize that our political leaders are too corrupt/lost for words & need to be replaced. These advances/expansions in consciousness are evolutionary and can not be stopped.
A competent healer does not focus on the symptoms of a disease, but use the symptoms to identify the root cause of the disease, and proceeds from there.
“It is more proper that law should govern than any one of the citizens: upon the same principle, if it is advantageous to place the supreme power in some particular persons, they should be appointed to be only guardians, and the servants of the laws.
Aristotle, Politics 3:16.
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“We are moving into a period of climax, leading to events which will fundamentally alter life as we know it… To some people… it is the realisation that only through a profound inner change and readiness for a new direction in our political, economic and social life can humanity survive…
“Another war would destroy all life on earth. So what can we do?…. We only have one option and that is to end war forever. So how to we get at stopping war? We have to create trust. We have to get rid of injustice.
“When a nation comes to adulthood, to maturity, it relates to other nations in a completely different way than hitherto. It begins to respect the Rule of Law, which binds all nations together in mutual responsibility and need. The sign of a growing maturity is precisely this respect for the laws which men have found necessary to living together in peace…
“When we create an economic system based on co-operation and sharing rather than on competition and market forces, we will create a more moral economic structure. When the stock exchanges collapse, humanity will be brought face to face with its illusions about the nature of reality.
-Benjamin Creme
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Benjamin_Creme
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“A Society that prohibits the capacity to speak in truth extinguishes the capacity to live in justice… Tyrannies invert the rule of law. They turn the law into an instrument of injustice. They cloak their crimes in a faux legality. They use the decorum of the courts and trials, to mask their criminality.”
“Those such as Julian who expose that criminality to the public are dangerous, for without the pretext of legitimacy the tyranny loses credibility and has nothing left in its arsenal but fear, coercion and violence… The long campaign against Julian and WikiLeaks is a window into the collapse of the rule of law..
Chris Hedges, Revisiting the case of Julian Assange and the reality of the “rule of law”, Salon (15 June 2021)
“What we are demanding on the political spectrum is in fact conservative: It is the restoration of the rule of law. It is simple and basic. It should not, in a functioning democracy, be incendiary. But living in truth in a despotic system is the supreme act of defiance. This truth terrifies those in power.
The criminal ruling class has all of us locked in its death grip… It has abolished the rule of law. It obscures and falsifies the truth. It seeks the consolidation of its obscene wealth and power. And so, to quote the Queen of Hearts, metaphorically of course, I say, “Off with their heads.”
-Chris Hedges, Revisiting the case of Julian Assange and the reality of the “rule of law”, Salon (15 June 2021)
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Rule_of_law#H
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“The basic problem of US foreign policy is that it is trying to achieve hegemony in a multipolar world. The US has neither the economic, military, financial, nor technological means to be the world’s hegemon, but is also has no deep national interest in trying to be the world’s hegemon. Yes, the belief by people like Biden that the US is the world’s leader and the “indispensable” nation, is still part of the Washington scene, or I should say the Washington delusion.
-Jeffrey Sachs
https://www.jurist.org/features/2023/11/06/there-needs-to-be-a-political-settlement-jeffrey-sachs-on-what-it-will-take-to-end-the-israel-palestine-conflict/
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“The greatest achievement of humanity is not its works of art, science, or technology, but the recognition of its own dysfunction, its own madness.
In the distant past, this recognition already came to a few individuals. A man called Gautama Siddhartha, who lived 2,600 years ago in India, was perhaps the first who saw it with absolute clarity…
“To recognize one’s own insanity, is of course, the arising of sanity, the beginning of healing and transcendence.
“The more unconscious individuals, groups, or nations are, the more likely it is that egoic pathology will assume the form of physical violence. Violence is a primitive but still very widespread way in which the ego attempts to assert itself, to prove itself right or another wrong. With very unconscious people, arguments can easily lead to physical violence.
“The ego, and particularly the collective ego, strengthens itself through emphasizing the “otherness” of others. In other words, the ego needs an “enemy” for its continued survival. Hence its refusal to compromise.
Until the new consciousness, which is awareness-based, grows and becomes more firmly established in the human psyche, temporary regression to the egoic state of consciousness (or rather unconsciousness) can easily occur. I have noticed with concern, for example, that not only certain politicians, but also some commentators in respectable publications are increasingly portraying Russia and/or China as the “enemy.”
-Eckhart Tolle
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Eckhart_Tolle
P.S.
Western Leaders & supportive associates: Please stop supporting genocide/barbarism/endless wars/big lies & dirty tricks. It’s extremely, ignorant & futile. Karmic consequences will not be pleasant. Please See severe & profoundly handicapped kids for insight & remember that Hitler & his associates also fondly imagined that they were above the law.
P.S. II
Ladies & Gentlemen: What Can/Should be done about AIPAC? Has AIPAC corrupted all the US/EU governments with honeytrap, blackmail, bribery ops? Are they behind the endless wars, mass deception, & literal epidemic of chaos &decadence? Who does AIPAC report to? Perhaps they report to a few old ruling elite families who have held power for centuries – who don’t understand what’s going on & are very fearful of losing their power?
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PSA: US gov’t Employees & Contractors Can Be Charged w/COMPLICITY in War Crimes: 18USC §2441 & GENOCIDE: 18USC §1091 + “I was following orders” is NO excuse! There is NO Statute of Limitations. Maybe some US workers helping Biden/Netanyahu should think less about their careers & more about prison.
Posted by: Will Seymore | May 12 2024 21:27 utc | 197
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