Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 10, 2024

A Pessimistic Economist Laments The End Of Order

The magazine for and by multi-millionaires and billionaires, The Economist, warns that the end is imminent:

The liberal international order is slowly coming apart - (archived)
Its collapse could be sudden and irreversible

For years the order that has governed the global economy since the second world war has been eroded. Today it is close to collapse. A worrying number of triggers could set off a descent into anarchy, where might is right and war is once again the resort of great powers. Even if it never comes to conflict, the effect on the economy of a breakdown in norms could be fast and brutal.

It is, in my view, true that the 'liberal international order', which after World War II largely regulated world trade and politics is in demise.

But who's fault is that?

The examples The Economist gives to support its central claim point to one culpable nation:

As we report, the disintegration of the old order is visible everywhere. Sanctions are used four times as much as they were during the 1990s; America has recently imposed “secondary” penalties on entities that support Russia’s armies. A subsidy war is under way, as countries seek to copy China’s and America’s vast state backing for green manufacturing. Although the dollar remains dominant and emerging economies are more resilient, global capital flows are starting to fragment, as our special report explains.

The institutions that safeguarded the old system are either already defunct or fast losing credibility. The World Trade Organisation turns 30 next year, but will have spent more than five years in stasis, owing to American neglect. The IMF is gripped by an identity crisis, caught between a green agenda and ensuring financial stability. The un security council is paralysed. And, as we report, supranational courts like the International Court of Justice are increasingly weaponised by warring parties. Last month American politicians including Mitch McConnell, the leader of Republicans in the Senate, threatened the International Criminal Court with sanctions if it issues arrest warrants for the leaders of Israel, which also stands accused of genocide by South Africa at the International Court of Justice.

It is the U.S., the country which arguably benefited the most from the liberal international order, which is actively destroying it.

Others, if they did not attract random U.S. rage and war against them, also saw some benefits from it. Those small to medium countries will most likely lose out should the current regime collapse.

That would not be unprecedented:

Unfortunately, history shows that deeper, more chaotic collapses are possible—and can strike suddenly once the decline sets in. The first world war killed off a golden age of globalisation that many at the time assumed would last for ever. In the early 1930s, following the onset of the Depression and the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, America’s imports collapsed by 40% in just two years. In August 1971 Richard Nixon unexpectedly suspended the convertibility of dollars into gold; only 19 months later, the Bretton Woods system of fixed-exchange rates fell apart.

Similar ruptures, like the examples above again caused by the U.S., may happen soon.

Interestingly the Economist does not name a solution or way to avoid it. It sees a collapse coming, blames -more or less- the U.S. for causing it, but does not point to way out of it.

That is an uncharacteristically pessimistic view for writers who otherwise like to paint a positive picture for those with big money.

Posted by b on May 10, 2024 at 14:04 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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It is ridiculous to refer to any period of internationalised taffic prior to Bretton Woods and the USA's insane drive to interfere with a world they barely understand as globalisation. One has to bear in mind that globalisation always did = amerikanisation, one of the reasons it was always doomed to the failure that is fast approaching (after a too-long period of sustained USA-borne destruction and misery). You have to laugh at USA Americans fretting about the rise of China which was always part and parcel of globalisation (=amerikanisation) mission.

Posted by: petra | May 10 2024 14:15 utc | 1

American elites fucked up big time when they promoted the inclusion of China into the WTO. Short term it was good for them 'cause they by-passed American working classes but long term they unleashed the power of a superior competitor. When that happened with Japan in the 70s-80s, the solution was simple, force the Japanese vassals to destroy their impetus with currency manipulations (1985's Plaza Accords). But that cannot be done to China today, for much that they beg-demand in failed supplicant-arrogant combo performaces.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | May 10 2024 14:18 utc | 2

They think that the liberal democratic order has prevented wars by the great powers? What mental universe have these people been living in for the past seventy years? I have seen nothing but near-continual war throughout my entire seven decades of life.

Posted by: G. Poulin | May 10 2024 14:20 utc | 3

I bought it for 30 years odd.
The father used to get it.
The quality declined.
In the end.
I couldn't care about the content it was so on script.
Pity.

Posted by: jpc | May 10 2024 14:22 utc | 4

2. Indeed they beat their own workers by pushing manufacturing to China and thereby laid the seed of their own destruction. These are 'people' who would rather have a nickle today than a hundred bucks tomorrow. Imbeciles.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 10 2024 14:24 utc | 5

American elites fucked up big time when they promoted the inclusion of China into the WTO. Short term it was good for them 'cause they by-passed American working classes but long term they unleashed the power of a superior competitor. When that happened with Japan in the 70s-80s, the solution was simple, force the Japanese vassals to destroy their impetus with currency manipulations (1985's Plaza Accords). But that cannot be done to China today, for much that they beg-demand in failed supplicant-arrogant combo performances.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | May 10 2024 14:18 utc | 2

The American Monied Class killed the American Working man. "Free Trade" they bellowed as factory after factory closed and American Capital relocated into Mexico and China.
Now, after 30 years of being bled-out, the U.S. economy is high-priced Government, Services and Spying, private and public.
Once vaunted American know-how is narrowed into computer, whiz-bang calculators with no knowledge of their place and import. A country totally lost in it's infinite propaganda.

Posted by: kupkee | May 10 2024 14:27 utc | 6

End of any remaining pretense of republic; beginning of empire?

Posted by: Feral Finster | May 10 2024 14:29 utc | 7

How this "order" is inflicted on our thoughts:

I am about to watch

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10394886/?ref_=nm_flmg_t_5_act

"The Salisbury Poisonings" about which I have my own opinions.

We will see if anything changes...

Fubar

Posted by: Fubar_el_Haq | May 10 2024 14:32 utc | 8

As intended. The “great reset”… the end of fiat & any other currency system is never meant to breach 100 years. Then the “great wealth transfer” is implemented and cycle restarted.

Bankers & speculators have been playing this game for centuries. Under different names & guises.
People need to quit making this like it’s some kind of “new” phenomenon. Or relegate it to “liberal globalists agenda”. Sometimes this nation stands and that nation falls, but in the end, the bankers & speculators win.

By developing the “middle class”… they simply developed another class that bankers and speculators can steal from beside exploiting the poor, and cutting the throats of their own that was always done in the plebiscite era.

They’re returning to the serfs era, then of course, will rebuild again, with even more wealth & assets, control of populations with tech. It’s tech that’s collapsing the old fiat system more than anything else, it requires a new system, that’s been well planned, and systematically instituted to collapse this one since the 80s minimally.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 10 2024 14:38 utc | 9

RE: Posted by: G. Poulin | May 10 2024 14:20 utc | 3

Agreed. Everything is just relabeled to guise the constant.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 10 2024 14:41 utc | 10

Feral, 2.29 GMT, I would have it, rapidly approaching end of aborted empire rather. Even the kulchural empire is fast being rejected by non-Americans fed up with the impoverishment amerikanisation brings about.

Pity about what is going on in the francafrique, which a surprising proportion of voices who ought to know better are asserting to be autochthonous rebellion instead of what it is: the ferocious USA-France tussle which has been going .on since April '94 at an accelerating pace. I know of plenty of FWA and FEA citizens who have little affection for their former colonial overlord and yet are hoping that France can assert itself once again over the destructive blight from the far west. (With a little help from their RF and PRC friends.)

Posted by: petra | May 10 2024 14:43 utc | 11

Feral Finster@1429

Its already been a few years now since I began referring to the U$$A as "Our Ruptured Republic", on various forums. That reality has become clear as crystal nowadays. Those "public servants" are working for those who parasite upon We The People.

So the Republic is moribund, while the touted empire "wears no clothes" in the immortal words of Hans Christian Andersen. Not only politically bankrupt, the ruling elite agenda is also morally bankrupt and soon to achieve that status on the economic front. With tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians being genocided in Gaza by U.$. weapons literally GIVEN to the Talmudist exceptionalist "chosens"; world opinion, including millions of gens Y and Z. right here in our ruptured republic has become unforgiving.

The takeover regime in the Di$trict of Corruption is tottering, as is the three TRILLION per year debt-mongers on Wall $treet and in the Feral Reserve bankster monopoly. The Grand Finale of their hegemony is hitting the skids...which have been well greased by the primary BRICS nations...and by the fact that in D.C.; NYC and City of London...there are no longer any adults left in the room.

Posted by: aristodemos | May 10 2024 14:45 utc | 12

Posted by: G. Poulin | May 10 2024 14:20 utc | 3

It depends on your definition of war. Superpower invasion and adventurism is not a fight, it's an assault. It's bullying and armed robbery and conquest. War tends to bring to mind peers engaging in back and forth conquest. Not accurate, but it brings it to mind.

If it can be fitted into the maxim of 'all problems are America's problems, and all of America's problems have only a military solution' you have the post-WW II history. The de facto British Empire enforced by the Big Dumb Giant. Smaller nations might get into squabbles, but only the US has a significant portion of its economy on a war time footing. And what's the good of having a military like that if you're not going to use it?

The feral children who run the US foreign policy are the inevitable result of years of propaganda. They believe in World Cop, they believe in The Indispensible Nation, they believe in The Case for Goliath. Or at least, they'll keep killing people undisturbed by reality. Meanwhile, the American tax mule grows more and more restless.

Posted by: jhill | May 10 2024 14:46 utc | 13

"A worrying number of triggers could set off a descent into anarchy, where might is right"

But the economist had been a supporter of the rules-based order.

Our might makes right is good. Now that western might is not so mighty...

Posted by: ISL | May 10 2024 14:49 utc | 14

That the USUK sowed the seeds of the destruction of its own international order through expensive and endless wars and sanctions is of course true. But, given the tendency/rule of capitalism leading representative republics to crony special interest control focused on profit for the favored few, it was utterly inevitable.

So the Economist shouldn't be too hard on itself ... this was written in stone. After all, the business of America is business and militarism and imperial profit centering is the best and easiest way to convert local and foreign wealth into 0.1% profit. But at some point, the foreigners stop playing the patsy and start fighting back and here we are, the end of easy money. It's going to be a long hard fall ...

Posted by: Caliman | May 10 2024 14:50 utc | 15

thanks b... i agree strongly with the first 3 comments in this thread...

i love your opening line - "The magazine for and by multi-millionaires and billionaires, The Economist, warns that the end is imminent."

Posted by: james | May 10 2024 14:52 utc | 16

Only 1,data point will be significant in next 24 months:

Cost of Interest Payments on Federal Debt
Divided by
Federal Tax Reciepts

Barflies - my rough figuring estimates slightly more than 1/3 of federal tax receipts will be devoted to paying interest on federal debt starting in late 2024

Posted by: Exile | May 10 2024 14:53 utc | 17

One not insignificant aspect of the great unraveling, which worsens every week here in California: the little problem with homeowner's insurance. Not only in my fair state, Floridians are also suffering. It gets nearly impossible for young folks to buy a home, because to get a mortgage you need insurance, and next to nobody's writing new policies in this state anymore.

Like the macro-economic trade issues bothering The Economist,we reasonably expect this terrible trend -- vanishing real-property insurance -- to continue exacerbating. No solution in sight.

Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 10 2024 14:53 utc | 18

The thuggish USA with it 'pet' UK [who wants to think it is still Great Britain] threatened, penalized and bombed its way to ensure it got its way [like a toddler's tantrum] which allowed the billionaires to get 'their' wealth have found people who are prepared to come together and stand up to the bully. I applaud those who are standing up to the bully.

Posted by: Bill R | May 10 2024 14:54 utc | 19

The Economist is one of the primary mouthpieces of globalist high finance (ie Rothschilds, Sassoons, Schiffs, Warburgs). What they're lamenting with the "The End of Order" is the decay and coming collapse into irrelevance of their main project for the last 100 years - the USD system. They were able to roll over a lot of what they had learned and stolen with the GBP (1660s - 1945) into the USD system between 1900-1945 but it was a close thing.

The main rising powers in the system gelling around BRICS are former colonial possessions or nations like Russia/China that were badly abused by the USD system in the past. They are keenly aware of who did this and on their guard against further abuse.

This leaves only Americans, Western Europeans and a few nations around them as food for the vampires for the next few generations. Even these people are starting to get restive.

The big advantage of globalism is that the globalists can order everyone around, but in that same ability to communicate is a danger for them - well meaning people can communicate and organize against the globalists in ways not previously possible.

Posted by: Awl | May 10 2024 15:03 utc | 20

Most Americans know that political corruption is destroying the United States, which devotes massive resources to expand and rule its empire. The US Constitution was written to keep some power in the hands of the states, who appointed their US Senators, but the 17th Amendment, promoted by American business titans and ratified in 1913, removed this control with direct Senate elections to allow the centralization of power in Washington DC. Repealing the 17th Amendment is a simple idea that would have an immediate impact on the nation as states regain control of the federal government. US Senators would suddenly focus funding on helping people in their state and have little interest in military interventions overseas.

Here is a short video about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ttq4R1qvTUU

Posted by: Carlton Meyer | May 10 2024 15:16 utc | 21

When was war NOT the resort of great powers? The US resorted to war continuously both before and after of the 'liberal international order.' Without that, it would have disappeared by the mid 1960s. The 'liberal international order' was established by war, maintained by war, and is now being destroyed by its relentless prosecution of wars.

Posted by: Honzo | May 10 2024 15:17 utc | 22

before and after the establishment of. I wrote it, it didn't upload.

Posted by: Honzo | May 10 2024 15:18 utc | 23

Interestingly the Economist does not name a solution or way to avoid it. It sees a collapse coming, blames -more or less- the U.S. for causing it, but does not point to way out of it.

Not Coming.Happened

Historians will date it to the mid 2010s.
Every thing since has been the angry bad reactions of a sore loser in denial.
Makes it so much easier to understand why the US does such stupid things even now.

Posted by: Mickey Droy | May 10 2024 15:22 utc | 24

The US Constitution was written to keep some power in the hands of the states, who appointed their US Senators, but the 17th Amendment, promoted by American business titans and ratified in 1913, removed this control with direct Senate elections to allow the centralization of power in Washington DC.

Posted by: Carlton Meyer | May 10 2024 15:16 utc | 21

This really misses the point. State governments are just as corrupt as the Federal government, because the same class corrupts both. The difference is one of scale, and that does make a difference, but if you lived in a small western resource extraction state before the 17th, the difference was not beneficial to the general population. Corporate interests simply owned those states. They continue to do so, because whenever their interests are attacked on one level of government, they resort to the other. I don't think elections are responsible for this problem. It's concentrated wealth corrupting any and all levels of government.

Posted by: Honzo | May 10 2024 15:25 utc | 25

Awl | May 10 2024 15:03 utc | 20--

Good for you to take the longer view of the Era that's collapsing. I put it at ~140 years and the backlash of the Rentier Reactionaries that led to Neoliberalism amid the Anti-Communist Crusade. What will emerge is the fair international system many nations thought was on-tap after WW2 but was subverted by the Outlaw US Empire and its many illegalities and crimes against humanity. What horrifies writers at The Economist is the West having to compete fairly when is comparative advantages are few and its opportunities to collect rents sink to zero. To improve, the West will need to oust its Neoliberal Parasites as internal improvements to make their economies more competitive are the only real way they have as a way out, which isn't at all what their Masters want as they want to continue to collect their rents and gnaw at the host's flesh.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2024 15:28 utc | 26

@ Mickey Droy | May 10 2024 15:22 utc | 24

interesting perspective.. i can kind of see it this way too..

Posted by: james | May 10 2024 15:28 utc | 27

@ Carlton Meyer | May 10 2024 15:16 utc | 21

1913 is an interesting date in usa history.. it is also the beginning of the federal reserve...

Posted by: james | May 10 2024 15:29 utc | 28

This really misses the point. State governments are just as corrupt as the Federal government, because the same class corrupts both. The difference is one of scale, and that does make a difference, but if you lived in a small western resource extraction state before the 17th, the difference was not beneficial to the general population. Corporate interests simply owned those states. They continue to do so, because whenever their interests are attacked on one level of government, they resort to the other. I don't think elections are responsible for this problem. It's concentrated wealth corrupting any and all levels of government.

Posted by: Honzo | May 10 2024 15:25 utc | 25

Correct, the corruption is top to bottom, this is obvious to anybody who has to deal with government, which is mostly run as a protection racket, you pay to protect yourself from them. Services are all run on the minimum effort principle, do as little as possible, but don't let the boss get annoyed. And lies and deception everywhere you go.

Posted by: Bemildred | May 10 2024 15:32 utc | 29

American elites fucked up big time when they promoted the inclusion of China into the

The ruling class did not fuck up. You think they will suffer from the economic downturn? Their money is already offshore. And in case things really going south, isn't Thiel building a bunker complex in New Zealand? This is the inherent contradiction in Capitalism. The ruling class will always seek greater profit at the cost of labor. Capitalism is doing what capitalism always will without protection from the state.

Posted by: Jun | May 10 2024 15:33 utc | 30

Barflies - my rough figuring estimates slightly more than 1/3 of federal tax receipts will be devoted to paying interest on federal debt starting in late 2024

Posted by: Exile | May 10 2024 14:53 utc | 17

It's just a way of paying the investor class for existing, and concentrating the ownership of wealth in their hands. It drives inflation, and inflation drives the concentration of wealth. The inflated currency creates a problem of ROI, and this leads to the collapse of marginal businesses and the further concentration of capital. The classic problem of capitalism is that when a small number of capitalists own most of the productive resources in a given local/regional economy, they can no longer realize profit by the medium of exchange and there's no place to invest what they do 'earn' at a profit. Hence imperialist wars to open markets, destroy competitors, and control resources at rock bottom prices. These, however, are temporary fixes, and when concentrated ownership becomes more or less global, there's very little 'outside' wealth or markets to acquire, and destroying competitors becomes the main model. This is why the Ameri-centric PTB would like to bring down Russia and China, and are actively destroying their Europeon competitors. The prospect of controlling markets in Russia and China is unlikely, so simply destroying them as competitors becomes the aim. Fortunately, this is now only doable in a civilization-destroying global nuclear war, and there's no profit in that. Or becoming radioactive dust.

Posted by: Honzo | May 10 2024 15:36 utc | 31

Posted by: Mickey Droy | May 10 2024 15:22 utc | 24

I’d actually date it to the 2008 GFC and the reaction to that from Western central banks and financial regulators. Instead of allowing impaired investments to be marked to true market value and taking the hit to balance sheet asset values, the huge amount of “socialism for the rich” by way of ultra-low interest rates and unprecedented amounts of currency emission, the central banks and regulators painted themselves into a corner, the consequences of which are still working through to this day.

On top of this, the absolute madmen (and women) in positions of Hegemonic policy-setting decided to weaponise the US$ as a means of exerting power and control over those nations they deemed recalcitrant, but doing this at the same time as their means of military enforcement of the global reserve currency was being exposed as smoke and mirrors. Historians will look at this as an epic miscalculation

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 10 2024 15:42 utc | 32

(With a little help from their RF and PRC friends.)

Posted by: petra | May 10 2024 14:43 utc | 11

You appear to be using a novel definition of 'friends.'
The choice you present is a false binary, and China and RF are proving it. They are not playing a Perfidious Albion style balance of power game, they are aiding the locals in breaking the grip of the imperialists, of whatever stripe. And don't bother with the nonsense that RF and China are imperialist powers hoping to replace the existing ones.

Posted by: Honzo | May 10 2024 15:43 utc | 33

The US would rather destroy the world than give up hegemonic power. Seems pretty on point for them.

Posted by: teddy salad | May 10 2024 15:44 utc | 34

Invocation
by Ogden Nash
( " Smoot Plans Tariff Ban on Improper Books " NEWS ITEM )

Senator Smoot (Republican, Ut.)
Is planning a ban on smut.
Oh rooti-ti-toot for Smoot of Ut.
And his reverent occiput.
Smite, Smoot, smite for Ut.,
Grit your molars and do your dut.,
Gird up your l — ns,
Smite h p and th gh,
We'll all be Kansas
By and by.

Smite, Smoot, for the Watch and Ward,
For Hiram Johnson and Henry Ford,
For Bishop Cannon and John D., Junior,
For Governor Pinchot of Pennsylvunia,

For John S. Sumner and Elder Hays
And possibly Edward L. Bernays,
For Orville Poland and Ella Boole,
For Mother Machree and the Shelton pool.
When smut's to be smitten
Smoot will smite
For G d, for country,
And Fahrenheit.

Senator Smoot is an institute
Not to be bribed with pelf;
He guards our homes from erotic tomes
By reading them all himself.
Smite, Smoot, smite for Ut.,
They're smuggling smut from Balt. to Butte!
Strongest and sternest
Of your s x
Scatter the scoundrels
From Can. to Mex.!

Smite, Smoot, for Smedley Butler,
For any good man by the name of Cutler,
Smite for the W.C.T.U.,
For Rockne's team and for Leader's crew,
For Florence Coolidge and Admiral Byrd,
For Billy Sunday and John D., Third,
For Grantland Rice and for Albie Booth,
For the Woman's Auxiliary of Duluth,
Smite, Smoot,
Be rugged and rough,
Smut if smitten
Is front-page stuff.

Posted by: George D | May 10 2024 15:48 utc | 35

That was not the liberal order but the capitalist order.

Posted by: Dodrey Dougherton | May 10 2024 15:51 utc | 36

Nationalism is killing capitalism.

International working class awakening to socialism as the barbarity inherent in capitalism bares its bloody fangs, not to mention the fact the ruling class sees the working class as disposable. Wrong.

Posted by: lindaj | May 10 2024 15:59 utc | 37

Understanding their actual worth to the corporate and oligarchical 1% is the light which will open the eyes of the People. Its when the overlords, in their self-satisfied hubris, show you themselves the disdain they have for you, that the People will start to figure it out.
Apple released this with their new gizmo to show you. It took about 48 hours for them to realize what they had actually done, and they've "disappeared" it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntjkwIXWtrc

Posted by: WilsonK | May 10 2024 16:00 utc | 38

It's *almost* as if the psychopaths ruling the Western world are destroying it intentionally....

Posted by: Iseeit | May 10 2024 16:09 utc | 39

Capitalism is a Fraud ... Fractional Reserve Banking allows the creation of money out of thin air besides what the Fed has already created out of thin air ... It will eventually come to an end ... And the end is near ...

Posted by: Luigi Governi | May 10 2024 16:13 utc | 40

The Economist article is pretty positive in one respect in that it FINALLY lays blame correctly, on the US. It doesn't seem like much but a first step is needed before global healing can take place. Build out a balance of powers and allow nations to choose who they wish to do business with.

The truly weird part is guys such as Blinken who seem pathologically incapable of accepting that the sands have shifted. When the US needs real deal making diplomacy, they call in Burns to get it done ( and he hates Russia/China but can 'get real'). As for Congress/the Senate, they're just playing for constituents or campaign bribery. I don't see how the US ever gets back to Kissinger level competency ( yeah, yeah, warcrimes and all)

Posted by: Eighthman | May 10 2024 16:16 utc | 41

Excellent discussion on a perceptive pick from b - many thanks. Agreed that everything happening is just what capitalism does, and the way to understand this is through Marxist analysis. The only answer to it is Marxist social organization (socialism, communism, etc), to which much of the world is inexorably gravitating.

My only question, and for history to observe in fascination, is if the old banking families who claim ever-increasing ownership of the means of production will be able to keep hold of these means in the future.

Posted by: Grieved | May 10 2024 16:27 utc | 42

Why are US univetsities so silent about this economic crisis?

Posted by: vargas | May 10 2024 16:33 utc | 43

Positive news: Mishustin's been reappointed as Russian Prime Minister which will help ensure government continuity given its current workload.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2024 16:40 utc | 44

The U.S. Universities were turned into useful idiot factories, producing morons to be used by the psychopaths running the empire....To death.

Posted by: Iseeit | May 10 2024 16:42 utc | 45

Although this may seem OT, if we are talking about the end of order, it's relevant in that the solar storm conditions might end a lot of things. I haven't seen much about it on here, but it's important. Suspicious observers has a lot on it today. I did a post on it too. https://folkpotpourri.com/a-time-to-collect-our-thoughts/

Posted by: Ozark Grandpa | May 10 2024 16:44 utc | 46

You know shit is smelling when the Economist ‘tribe ‘, of believers have not factored in that the ALL SEEING MARKET is roaring to new records on Wall st on the news of a Rafa invasion . A.1. Target Wave , of the NEW SOLUTION . Blinken urging Hamas to take the ‘invisible on vanishing cease fire ‘, was predicted in the market ! It was the S.M. , de Sade moment in keeping the FROTH OF BLOOD BATH , bloated corpse to MARKETS AFLOAT ! What the Economist readers don’t get is the A.I . Artificial intelligence , gig is… GAZA ! Rafa is a south sea Dutch Tulip .

Posted by: Paleologos | May 10 2024 16:51 utc | 47

Economist: "But the achievements of the 1990s and 2000s—the high point of liberal capitalism—are unmatched in history. Hundreds of millions escaped poverty in China as it integrated into the global economy."

The authors at The Economist want to credit their beloved liberal capitalism with raising 800 million Chinese out of poverty.

Of course it's the role of the Chinese state under the leadership of the 90 million plus CP that is responsible for this remarkable accomplishment. The great country of India was just as involved in the blessings of liberal capitalism and, no, the results were not the same as in China.

China 1 Economist 0.

Posted by: N Hanrahan | May 10 2024 17:01 utc | 48

SMO in Ukraine did not cause the end of the liberal order, but certainly accelerated the timeline drastically.

Together with the identity crisis from the green agenda, the system is paradoxical, trying to strangle itself alive in the name of climate change, while trying to build a war economy further choking itself, while spending like no tomorrow to generate pitiful GDP growth and keep the debt house of cards from collapsing, while weaponizing the primary asset of the liberal order (the US dollar) against other large global economic powers from not being able to use it.

More recently, transgenderism, educational decay, rewriting biology and history, destruction of normal food supply and farming, war on CO2 (equivalent to war against life on the planet), reducing human population through various means including gene therapy products. All these come together and work to rip the liberal economic system apart. Such irony.

Truly the epic conjuncture of events similar to the end of the Roman empire, with all associated lunacy, madness and paradoxes to go along with it. Good riddance.

Posted by: unimperator | May 10 2024 17:05 utc | 49

Silicon Valley oligarchs running much of what is technologically driving the New World dystopia building the modern war machines, smart wall, deep state, vax passports, digital IDs - Surveillance Hell.

Peter Thiel, Anduril, Palantir etc

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rVuc-NlZyls

Jimmy interviews Whitney Webb.

Posted by: Scorpion | May 10 2024 17:09 utc | 50

Capitalism is a Fraud ... Fractional Reserve Banking allows the creation of money out of thin air besides what the Fed has already created out of thin air ... It will eventually come to an end ... And the end is near ...

Posted by: Luigi Governi | May 10 2024 16:13 utc | 40

Fractional Reserve Banking (infinite compounding of leverage of your capital) and Central Banking, restricts Free Market Competition by harsh Legal Penalties, ergo our Banking System is Feudalism.

Posted by: kupkee | May 10 2024 17:18 utc | 51

I think this is a case where ad-hominem attacks are actually justified. The Economist, pah, tell me where they’ve been accurate in any of their recent predictions? The timing of the article is highly suspicious as well. No coincidence that, as the Democrat’s chances of retaining power recede faster than its current incumbent’s mental faculties, up pops the reliable globalist stooge, to suggest that weakening international institutions is the root cause for a potentially chaotic future. No mention that these institutions have superseded national independence and are corrupted mechanisms, designed to preserve the elite’s, and their increasingly dim-witted inheritors, grasp on power.

I have said that the next quarter century will resemble the later half of the 18th Century, for good reason. Globalists smugly believed, by corrupting every Western institution, that they had constructed a global nuclear reactor, capable of generating more than enough power to sustain their apex position, whilst allowing them to destroy any threats. Too late they realised that the components, carefully placed for decades, actually aligned to make a bomb that would upend their world. Revolution’s in the air and once again events will be driven largely by those in America.

Posted by: Milites | May 10 2024 17:25 utc | 52

The end of order of course means the end of the USA. The US has been kept artificially afloat by all the "privately" owned reserve banks in nations across the world. These banks subsidise the existence of the USA to keep it going in spite of the USA's humongous unpayable debt. Obviously all the "private" reserve banks are reaching the end of their tether in keeping the dollar as the global reserve currency. Soon all the smoke and mirrors and propaganda is going to be of no use and the dollar, the USA, and the current global order is going to collapse. The Western elite think that they and all their wealth are going to weather the storm to rule again, but that is only if the collapse happens in a controlled fashion and not everywhere at once. If things end up in total chaos in the West, the every man for himself and God for us all scenario, then definitely some other countries out there will decide to take advantage of the West's weakness to take over some Western countries.

Posted by: gT | May 10 2024 17:25 utc | 53

In response to
"
My only question, and for history to observe in fascination, is if the old banking families who claim ever-increasing ownership of the means of production will be able to keep hold of these means in the future.

Posted by: Grieved | May 10 2024 16:27 utc | 42
"

Thanks for the perspective which to me equates to questioning who is going to own the means of the production of money in the future....continued private or public?


What struck me about the Economist piece is the obfuscation bent to the narrative....nowhere is there anything about the growth of multipolarity and that the order they refer to is global private finance hegemony. They think that somehow BRICS+ is a decent into anarchy when it is a direct confrontation to the God Of Mammon jackboot.

The only tidbit of truth in the Economist piece is that the death of empire based on global private finance hegemony is coming...and maybe soon....the elite just don't want it talked about in public because they are still in denial.

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 10 2024 17:41 utc | 54

Despite the lords of finance and war acknowledging all the reasons for the decline of the US dominated world system, i.e., replacing industrial profits with financial gains, declining corporate profits, inequality, they know nothing can be done to fetter the hubris of the American hegemon, its puppet masters and spooks. The arrogant Americans think they can burn enough money to win any and every conflict. The abrupt end of their hegemony will occur when they discover they are in arrears and can no longer pilfer from their 'allies' and the Global South to maintain their society of terror.

Posted by: Wilikins | May 10 2024 17:54 utc | 55

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 10 2024 15:42 utc | 32

I agree completely about dating it to the 2008 GFC. Once 'The Fed' started QE, ...

Only going downhill from here.

Posted by: varnel | May 10 2024 17:55 utc | 56

What would Marx say about this downturn?
He considerd the means of production to be a motor of social changes?
But it seems something else is behind the suicide of the west?
Capital eating his host?
Feminized societu heing even more destructive then the patriarchal one?

Posted by: vargas | May 10 2024 17:56 utc | 57

The 16th Amendment authorizing the federal income tax was also ratified in 1913.

Posted by: Lysias | May 10 2024 17:56 utc | 58

Posted by: vargas | May 10 2024 17:56 utc | 57

Feminized society being even more destructive then the patriarchal one?

There is nothing feminine in feminism.

Posted by: hopehely | May 10 2024 18:04 utc | 59

There was never a "Liberal International Order". There was a US imposed peace among the Western nations and a US-dominated opening of their markets. As soon as the nation of Japan threatened the power of the US, the US showed its position as the sovereign that does not follow the rules that it sets of other. Outside the West there was only Western domination and exploitation, and threats, subversion and invasion if necessary for any nation not understanding that the US was the boss.

As karlof notes, without the rest of the world to exploit and laid open to fair competition, the West will crumble and its ruling class turn in on the Western populations to extract rents from. Only if those ruling classes can be removed will the West be able to stop its decline.

Posted by: Roger | May 10 2024 18:17 utc | 60

where is lord evelyn wjere is jacob
what happened to boris johnson david camerons college pig sex partner nat?

why are the roths steins hiding from ?

what of the rokerfella skanks the shitters at the b i s bank what of the reverse tskeover of the uk by the foreign city state corporation called the city of london.


this econo globohomo piece is like nato saying no boots on the ground satanists do not give up they always lie parasites only understand suck.

decay collapse dis order is all these scum know


khazharian mafia still running the shoah

Posted by: todd | May 10 2024 18:21 utc | 61

"The IMF is gripped by an identity crisis, caught between a green agenda and ensuring financial stability."

Oh, is that what they're calling it these days?

xD

Posted by: McAgnew | May 10 2024 18:49 utc | 62

What would Marx say about this downturn?

Marx predicted the rate of profits would decline over time, leading to capitalism's downfall. Lenin explained imperialism was the response to this dilemma and now that the Global North has exhausted the 'resource' of the Global South and caused it to unite as a block in its defense to continued exploitation, bankruptcy and depression will follow.

Posted by: Wilikins | May 10 2024 18:57 utc | 63

@petra

Colonization was globalization before UK/USA, even the spread of Homo to all continents. Get a grip

Posted by: Æ | May 10 2024 19:00 utc | 64

The economist was once (20/30 years ago) a good paper

last decade I stopped buying it at all...

Posted by: Newbie | May 10 2024 19:10 utc | 65

The alternative to allowing the end of the era of liberal US hegemony, and one which appeared as a result of the Great Depression in the middle of the 20th century, is conversion to a totalitarian society utilizing fascist ideology. Technological and psychological advances now make possible the organizing and management of a society of terror Arendt and Orwell warned about. The capitalists have no alternative for their rule to survive without seizing total control of each and every persons existence, which AI is being developed to accomplish. They do not want to share power. Pluralism was always an idea used to fool academics and the electorate. The threat of multipolarity expressed by China, Russia, Iran, is anathema to Western Capital's power elite, which is why they are preparing for and investing in total war and totalitarian rule.

Posted by: Wilikins | May 10 2024 19:19 utc | 66

Coming from the economist, that is good news.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 10 2024 19:21 utc | 67

Why are US univetsities so silent about this economic crisis?

Posted by: vargas | May 10 2024 16:33 utc | 43

Economics departments in the US are all basically free(sic)market fundamentalists and neoliberal facilitators of the ruling class. If one doesn't toe this line it is impossible to gain tenure, or to get published in their 'leading'(sic) journals.

Most of academic economics in the US dominated West is basically ideological 'nonsense' and has very little to do with reality.

Corporate Governance is dominated by the cardinal rule of increasing share-holder value - now also dominated by share-buy-backs and manipulation.

Labour or Labor is simply a 'COST' to be savagely reduced to basic penury or the absolute minimum.

The US Treasury is owned by Goldman-Sachs.

Time for Sacho and Venzetti and the Molly Maguires to stage a comeback .... but they will need to be armed.

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 10 2024 19:36 utc | 68

Carlton Meyer @ 21

Thanks so much for the informative film explaining reasons for repealing the 17th Amendment.

I am convinced.

A worthy goal to work toward.

Posted by: Jane | May 10 2024 19:39 utc | 69

After declaring the 'End of History' and demanding we forget Marx for the last 40 years the Economist 'discovers' that there's a contradiction between the political economic order and the modes of its reproduction. I literally do not have enough palms to put on my face. Sometimes stupidity and ignorance are so profound it takes your breath away.

Posted by: Patroklos | May 10 2024 20:10 utc | 70

The US was only a republic until the Constitution was ratified. It has always been an empire. All of the westward expansion was imperial. The Spanish American war, taking Hawaii, etc.

What we’re seeing is the end of an empire. They all end. They all end for the same fundamental reason: when they can no longer expand they must contract. The US empire has now hit the limit of its expansion at the Eurasian heartland. The colonization of China failed and the bet to win it was US industrial power. The colonization of Russia also failed because Putin came to power.

The problem now is that US leadership is degenerate and wholly focused on imperial management, so it lacks both the will and the capability to address the internal contradictions of the imperial core. In theory there could be a return to a great power republic; in reality the capacity to manage that transition is absent. Imperial decline may be slow. On the other hand, a fairly large number of events could initiate cascading failure and it could happen quite quickly. With current and predictable near term leadership, the odds of a mismanaged punctuated event are pretty high.

Posted by: Lex | May 10 2024 20:11 utc | 71

Roger | May 10 2024 18:17 utc | 60--

Thanks for noticing and echoing! After the Parade Putin met with his foreign guests one of which was the President of Laos. Putin was direct in saying Laos allows excellent Russian access to the ASEAN with which the EAEU in its Summit just said it wanted to maximize contacts. The interaction of all the non-Western organizations is rapidly quickening and will soon see the G-7 in its rearview mirror as all the West really "offers" is rent extraction. Technologically, Russia, China, Iran have all the basics that developing economies of the Global Majority require--AND--they are willing to transfer them and train the locals how to operate those systems. At the EAEU Summit, the Kyrgyz president said this:

"I believe that our countries need to develop active cooperation in the field of personnel training. We need to consider the possibility of creating joint competence centers where we can combine our efforts to find new knowledge and transfer it."

And was followed by Cuba's president saying this:

"Undoubtedly, the way to the development of nations is through knowledge."

Thousands of people from Global Majority nations study at Russian and Chinese universities, while fewer and fewer people in the West study what's vital to industrial economies while being fed Junk Economics. And the aim is towards equity between nations as neither China nor Russia seek hegemony. But the equity doesn't stop there; it's to be extended to all as brilliant people are born into poor families quite often but until now have seldom received an opportunity. And that's a development the West detests.

So, it's more than just banking and finance as a host of other policies and associated institutions were implemented to keep the Global Majority down and hosts to Western Parasitism.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2024 20:23 utc | 72

Kennan blamed the student radicalism of the late 1960s on what he called the "sickly secularism" of American life, which he charged was too materialistic and shallow to allow understanding of the "slow powerful process of organic growth" which had made America great.[120] Kennan wrote that what he regarded as the spiritual malaise of America had created a generation of young Americans with an "extreme disbalance in emotional and intellectual growth." Kennan ended his book with a lament that the America of his youth no longer existed as he complained that most Americans were seduced by advertising into a consumerist lifestyle that left them indifferent to the environmental degradation all around them and to the gross corruption of their politicians. Kennan argued that he was the real radical as: "They haven't seen anything yet. Not only do my apprehensions outclass theirs, but my ideas of what would have to be done to put things right are far more radical than theirs."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_F._Kennan

Posted by: phenon | May 10 2024 20:46 utc | 73

Nationalism is killing capitalism.

Posted by: lindaj | May 10 2024 15:59 utc | 37

Quite the contrary: nationalism like racism is the backbone of capitalism.

In western countries there is no more a working class. There are only individuals who care only about themselves. For a working class to exist a class consciousness is mandatory. Such a consciousness does not exist anymore. The corruption is everywhere from top to bottom. The poors are insulting people poorer than themselves.

Posted by: Naive | May 10 2024 20:48 utc | 74

The US of A does not have any friends, nor allies.

For if it did have a dear friend, that friend would be honest with them about the direction it maintains.

But there are no friends, only lackeys and yes-men… only the vassal states also afflicted with the great dumbing down… poisoned too by Californication.

Posted by: DrWho | May 10 2024 20:55 utc | 75

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2024 20:23 utc | 72
From previous thread:
Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2024 1:57 utc | 139

Hello Karl,

I am very interested to read the pdf essay by Medvedev. Unfortunately when trying to download it, a security risk message appears.

Is it safe to download?

What the yankees did to help Hitler before 1941 is never taught in western countries, afaik.

Posted by: Naive | May 10 2024 20:57 utc | 76

In line with this piece by b, Martyanov has this
"I Review (A Little)...
... Sinara Group and what they do and explain why it is over for Siemens in Russia.
This is how new Russian High Speed Train will look like.
All Russian-made.

My hearing is not good enough to listen to his videos but just those few words are worth thinking about. Siemens, a German company? had a huge amount of work in Russia. They've lost the lot. Add that to Volkswagen and a number of other German companies that had a lot of business in Russia. Add all that to the other effects of sanctions on Germany, energy, normal trade with Russia
Then add on war spending. No economy can withstand a sudden across the board loss like that.
Germany - the new Greece?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 10 2024 21:05 utc | 77

Posted by: DrWho | May 10 2024 20:55 utc | 75

What strikes me is the rare stupidity of the European leaders. They did not learn anything from history. WW2 was about to destroy the European countries altogether by helping in turn the nazis and the Soviets. They did not expect though that Soviet Union would build a so strong army and they cancelled Operation Unthinkable which would have been the crown of the plan. Russia always in the past became stronger after a war. It is also the case today.

Russia yesterday was not ready, today it is.

That is what the stupid agents provocateurs are unable to understand.

Posted by: Naive | May 10 2024 21:06 utc | 78

jpc | May 10 2024 14:22 utc | 4
I too used to read it and it was really good, especially the science and technology part. When Murdoch bought The Economist... that was truly the death knell though it had gone done in quality even before that.

Posted by: dan of steele | May 10 2024 21:08 utc | 79

Anyone up for discussing the bronze age collapse?
I have my theory, but I'd be very happy to get new input & ideas!

(@petra #1 - The first era of globalization was the late bronze age, c. 1300 BC. It ended abruptly c. 1190 because...well, nobody really knows.)

Posted by: smuks | May 10 2024 21:18 utc | 80

Wilikins | May 10 2024 18:57 utc | 63

Imperialism reaches its limits when there's nowhere "unexploited" left to expand to. At the same time, 'internal expansion' (can't think of the correct term) of the capitalist system is limited by inequality, scarcity of resources and democratic limits to original accumulation (privatization). The situation before WW1 is quite similar to today in both regards imo.

Something's got to give... The "solution" is usually to destroy productive capital in a war, and financial capital via currency devaluation/ destruction. The remaining capital then has new room for continued accumulation. Those who bet on the winning horse (war party) get to reap the rewards, the losing side goes broke.

Posted by: smuks | May 10 2024 21:29 utc | 81

The Economist is one of the primary mouthpieces of globalist high finance (ie Rothschilds, Sassoons, Schiffs, Warburgs).
Awl | May 10 2024 15:03 utc | 20

I view this Economist article as predictive programming. On behalf of their controllers, they’re telling us that the next shoe will be dropped soon. Next comes CBDCs and the Great Taking. All part of the plan for complete corporate fascism, all planned.

Posted by: Ciaran | May 10 2024 21:38 utc | 82

Posted by: Naive | May 10 2024 21:06 utc | 78

Necessity is the mother of invention they say.

Sanctions have only galvanised Russia in a world where many states share their global viewpoints, while at the same time, as you rightly say, European leaders display a rare and special type of blissful ignorance.

The above, coupled with an extensive, controlled war front, has served to bring a battlehardened, war ready spearhead to The Bear.

Very hard for me to believe a chubby, soap dodging Brit would fancy a piece of The Bear for the next couple of generations, at least… the French are mentally incapable of organising a meat raffle… and we have to remember Queen Von Der Leyen had the German army running around with wooden make believe guns during training exercises… ‘pew pew pew’

Not hard to fly like an eagle when you are surrounded by geese. Putin to call the bluff 24/7

Posted by: DrWho | May 10 2024 21:44 utc | 83

Naive | May 10 2024 20:57 utc | 76--

Thanks for your interest. I had no troubles downloading it, no alarms or pop-ups whatsoever. Here's the link to Russian Security Council which is in Russian. The first linked item goes to the essay link page where you'll see PDF in a box. Click it and it will take you there. Or you could bypass all that and click this.

As I noted, the pdf format makes it difficult to get a clean translation using Yandex or Google. I had both translations open as I plowed through it yesterday. Producing a clean copy is doable but will take time. The main problems are the footnotes and images. Happy reading!

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2024 21:53 utc | 84

An Augustus could give the West another couple of centuries.

Posted by: Lysias | May 10 2024 22:00 utc | 85

karlof1 Naive

Here in oz, I get many popups saying a site is insecure when it comes to sites by or pro our current enemies of choice.
I always ignore them.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 10 2024 22:13 utc | 86

psychohistorian | May 10 2024 17:41 utc | 54

The most interesting question might indeed be: Why in The Economist, why now?

A possible explanation I can think of is the aim to cultivate fear among the ruling elite, so they'd be more willing to accept 'radical' policy options. Like the destruction of the EU, in order to keep US/UK afloat a little longer. My c.c.: Without European market access, the UK is nothing.

The next months could get interesting. Currently it looks like the Fed will keep its high rates, while ECB will lower them. After the Yen, Euro might be next to drop/ drift lower, making it unattractive for savings. (Or maybe something completely different - there are many factors in play.)

karlof1 | May 10 2024 16:40 utc | 44

re. Mishustin - Do you see any 'new generation' of Russian leaders coming up, who could replace Putin/ Lavrov in 2030(?)? The current government reshuffle might offer hints, but so far, not to me.

Naive | May 10 2024 20:48 utc | 74

Though I agree, I'd put it differently: There *is* a working class, but (most of) its members lack class consciousness. Marx assumed it would automatically evolve due to common class interest; this was one of his few major mistakes imo.

Posted by: smuks | May 10 2024 22:24 utc | 87

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 10 2024 19:36 utc | 68

I dont blame the Economics and Finance Departments. I have a Finance Grad degree from a Major University and they seemed pretty clued in on what is going on. A top Financial Engineering professor in the US, did not play options market because he felt the prices are manipulated by the banks and he was open with the students about it. Other Top Finance profs discussed how the CAPM was a crude instrument that the market embraced because it is a simmple model that makes money for the traders. They present research on how the investment advisors consistently underestimate economic transactions. The problem is industry which makes profits by selling gains, not recognizing losses or contractions. The other problem as pointed out by my classmate in my visit to Goldman Sachs, is that the firm is worth 1/3 of Turkey's GNP. There is no question that dark money runs our financial centers and it is a guild that excludes outsiders, where enormous money is made for the select few.

Posted by: Turk 152 | May 10 2024 22:26 utc | 88

I think that it is not needed to be that alarmist as in The Economist piece. What we are seeing is the failure of the political center - social/christian democracy - to correctly address the contradictions within western society that full industrialisation brought. In Europe we had these parties in power throughout the 90s, 00s with the 10s seeing them starting decline while in the US that was somewhat later with Obama that introduced drastic changes towards democratic socialism. Ever since then the West has been searching a new center of political gravity and made many mistakes, leading us to the current situation. Political extremism and fertile social-cultural grounds for new theories which are now fighting it out.

The issue with social/christian democrats is in a nutshell that they have invented consumerist society as the solution of class problems. That material wealth will bring peace and stability to society, indeed The End of History.

But we now see that it is not so. For the real class problems and other modern social contradictions are born out of human nature, specifically its relation to power and easy corruption via addiction. Indeed this is what Critical Theory is all about and although it has value in our modern context it fails to be complete, especially in what to do about it. It has since devolved, again via that same human nature, to viral social infections like intersectionality, critical race theory one one side and libertarianism and quasy-traditionalism on the other side. These cant solve anything so we go back and forth between right and left like chicken without a head.

So the search for a new political centre in the West continues but it is complicated by competition from the “common prosperity” ideologies of Russia and China plus the sustainability problems of the consumerist society we have created.

Posted by: alek_a | May 10 2024 22:40 utc | 89

Biden or Trump - that's the choice the citizens of the US have. May your God help you.

Posted by: Siddhartha | May 10 2024 22:42 utc | 90

The problem is industry which makes profits by selling gains, not recognizing losses or contractions.

Posted by: Turk 152 | May 10 2024 22:26 utc | 88

I dont get this, can you explain a bit more?

Posted by: alek_a | May 10 2024 22:45 utc | 91

Posted by: alek_a | May 10 2024 22:45 utc | 91

In looking at academic studies in Behavioral Finance, investment advisors are wrong as often as they are right, but they are wrong downturns and underestimate significant economic shocks, such as 2018, and more accurate at predicting surges in bull markets. I believe this is because the investment and real estate industries are based on hope for some undetermined future profit. I can accruately predict the next crash and put you in a cash position in which fees arent being earned from trades and we are not losing money, does not sell as much as I am going to double your money in the next five years.

Posted by: Turk 152 | May 10 2024 22:57 utc | 92

By developing the “middle class”… they simply developed another class that bankers and speculators can steal from beside exploiting the poor, and cutting the throats of their own that was always done in the plebiscite era.

Trubind1 | May 10 2024 14:38 utc | 9

Your post made me wonder - is there a Marxist theory of the "middle class", apart from seeing it as specialized and hence privileged workers?

Economically, the 'middle class' has (sometimes much) more than the bare minimum to survive, and can thus generate savings, even begin to accumulate. At least in 'good times'. Do its savings serve as an economic buffer, to be plundered in times of crisis before capitalists turn on each other/ the system eats itself?

---

... they have invented consumerist society as the solution of class problems. That material wealth will bring peace and stability to society, indeed The End of History.

...it is complicated by competition from the “common prosperity” ideologies of Russia and China plus the sustainability problems of the consumerist society we have created.

alek_a | May 10 2024 22:40 utc | 89

That was indeed the promise of social democrat Keynesianism: Mass consumerism & ever-increasing material standard of living. At least for the 'chosen few' in western countries - it was always based on cheap labour & raw materials from the RoW.

Is 'common prosperity' the same idea, now coming from China? The Chinese economy today does have similarities to 1950s USA, or Germany. Also, if anyone is able to build an economy operating within the planetary limits, it's the Chinese.

The rest of your post, I'd mostly disagree.
Western politics has been on a one-way street towards the right since c. 1980. It's fairly easy to say what would be necessary today, but in today's debate it's considered 'extremist', i.e. outside the overton window.

Posted by: smuks | May 10 2024 23:07 utc | 93

smuks | May 10 2024 22:24 utc | 87--

Thanks for your query. There's been off/on discussion of that topic at my substack over the past several months and particularly at New Year when it was clear Putin was arranging the post-2030 agenda, which we now have in the form of a decree. I see some very bright lights, but much is possible over the next 6 years. One person I'm very impressed with is Tatyana Golikova who'll be 64 in 2030. Another is Anton Alikhanov, current Kaliningrad Governor, who's 20 years younger, but very capable and quite popular. There are a few others in his class that I don't know enough about. IMO, the head-of-state is important, but the overall ability of the governing team is what's most important--their ability to work together efficiently and to solve problems for there'll be lots of work to do after Putin retires.

As a replacement for Lavrov, I favor Ryabkov who is the current Deputy, although Vasily Nebenzya, the current UN Rep, who's 62 would also be excellent. The overall team is big at 30 major members. Head of the Duma Vyacheslav Volodin is 60 and would also make a good PM. Mishustin is a bit younger at 58 and would also be a worthy Putin successor. Of course, the Russian people will decide, but whoever gets recommended by Putin will have the best chance at winning the 2030 election.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2024 23:16 utc | 94

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2024 21:53 utc | 84

Thanks a lot!

Finally I downloaded the PDF and scanned it virus or malwares, but it looks all right.

After reading it I will post my comments if any are necessary.

Posted by: Naive | May 10 2024 23:16 utc | 95

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 10 2024 22:13 utc | 86

Could be also because the site is not https...

Posted by: Naive | May 10 2024 23:18 utc | 96

karlof1 | May 10 2024 23:16 utc | 94

Putin, in an early interview knew that he and his family faced very real danger which he had to think about. I suspect that was the reason fore his later divorse - to protect the family.

If he retires, I assume he will step down similar to Yeltsin and give his successor an interim period prior to elections.
In the other case that he dies suddenly, I assume there would be a line of succession similar to what the US has?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 10 2024 23:26 utc | 97

Two little snippets from the piece which caught my discerning eye:

#1 In the eyes of the Chinese Communist Party, Vladimir Putin or other cynics, a system in which might is right would be nothing new. They see the liberal order not as an enactment of lofty ideals but an exercise of raw American power—power that is now in relative decline.

#2 The latest research shows that the era of the “Washington consensus”, which today’s leaders hope to replace, was one in which poor countries began to enjoy catch-up growth, closing the gap with the rich world.

I leave critical interpretation to critically discerning commenters.

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 10 2024 23:28 utc | 98

Posted by: karlof1 | May 10 2024 21:53 utc | 84

Already happy with the title:

How the Anglo-Saxons promoted fascism in the 20th century and resuscitated it in the 21st.

Translations in several other languages would be interesting...

Posted by: Naive | May 10 2024 23:28 utc | 99

Someone wrote that China has a fascist regime.

Imo the fascist is the one who wrote that.

Posted by: Naive | May 10 2024 23:29 utc | 100

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