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Notice Of Absence – Update: Change of Plans
Update (May 25, 9:36 UTC)
After discussions involving a dozen MDs, two professors (and me) it was decided to change the relevant department and plans.
This now looks likely to be a small to medium size – but more bloody than expected – intervention coming only next Thursday with a second one following a few weeks later. Plans may change again though if and when appropriate. I for now expect to be back at home around June 6 or so.
In-between being cut up and sewn together I will likely have access to the net. I may therefore pop up here and there and will reopen comments if and when I feel able to at least somewhat police them.
Thank you for your patience.
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Old post to follow:
For medical reasons your host will be offline from Thursday to Sunday.
I have closed the comments to prevent vandalism while I am away.
I hope to be back at full capacity on Monday, May 27th. Should the procedure be extended, which is a possibility, I will likely be back on Wednesday, May 29.
See you soon …
Ukraine: ‘Shot Down’ Drones Hit Targets
Reports of damage caused by Russian drones in Ukraine are regularly followed by reports which claim that all drones were shot down.
Via Strana (machine translations):
Russians hit Konotop and Shostka power facilities in Sumy region
08:22, today
Last night, Russian troops launched an air strike on the energy facilities of Konotop and Shostka in the Sumy region.
This is reported by the Sumy OVA. "The enemy launched an air strike, using a Shahed-type UAV, on the energy facilities of the cities of Shostka and Konotop," the report says.
Currently, work is underway to restore power supply, which was cut off due to an enemy strike.
Also in the OVA reported that over the Sumy region this night destroyed 7 enemy UAVs of the type "Shahed".
Ukrenergo reported that Sumy and the surrounding areas remain without electricity after the night attack of "Shahids".
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Air forces destroyed all 24 Shaheds that attacked Ukraine
09:00, today
On the night of Wednesday, May 22, Russia attacked Ukraine with 24 strike UAVs of the Shahed-131/136 type. This is reported by the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"As a result of the anti-aircraft battle, the Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to shoot down all 24 Shaheds," the report says.
Strike UAVs were destroyed in the Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Sumy and Odessa regions.
Recall that at night, Russian troops launched an air strike on the energy facilities of Konotop and Shostka in the Sumy region.
Sumy and surrounding areas remain without electricity after the night attack of "Shahids".
I will concede that debris of a shot down drone can still cause damage. But when the 'debris' of a 'shot down' drone is causing the intended damage when it hits its target was it really shot down?
Who do they think they are kidding with this?
A Kharkiv Encirclement As Dreamed Up By ‘Sources’
Yesterday The Economist published about an alleged Russian plan to partially encircle Kharkiv:
Ukraine’s desperate struggle to defend Kharkiv (archived)
I find that this is unlikely to ever have been a Russian plan:
Retrieved military plans, details of which were shared with The Economist, suggest the Russians were probing to see if they could partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on the Ukrainian formations to the east of the Pechenihy reservoir. The operation was supposedly planned for May 15th-16th but was brought forward by nearly a week for unknown reasons.
According to the plans, the Russians had identified two axes of attack on either side of the reservoir. The push on the western axis was intended, over 72 hours, to bring Russian troops to within artillery range of Kharkiv city at the village of Borshchova. They were stopped by a rapidly redeployed grouping from the elite 92nd Brigade, which pushed them back a full 10km from their initial goal.
…
On the Vovchansk axis, further east, the Russian plan had been to fight past Anna’s father’s house on the reservoir, right down to the town of Pechenihy. The Russians initially made quick work of this operation, sweeping through an area that should have been prepared with minefields and serious engineering fortifications but wasn’t.
The piece includes this not very helpful map:
I have marked the LiveUAmap map of the Russian Kharkiv incursion with arrows from the border to the villages named in the Economist piece:
Cont. reading: A Kharkiv Encirclement As Dreamed Up By ‘Sources’
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-145
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The Economist wants us to know that Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential term expires on May 20th.
I am sure that Russia will act accordingly.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
ICC Prosecutor Asks For Arrest Warrants For Netanyahoo, Gallant And Others
Today the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim A.A. Khan KC, has filed applications for warrants of arrest before a pre-trial chamber of the court.
These concern both sides of the conflict in Palestine:
On the basis of evidence collected and examined by my Office, I have reasonable grounds to believe that Yahya SINWAR (Head of the Islamic Resistance Movement (“Hamas”) in the Gaza Strip), Mohammed Diab Ibrahim AL-MASRI, more commonly known as DEIF (Commander-in-Chief of the military wing of Hamas, known as the Al-Qassam Brigades), and Ismail HANIYEH (Head of Hamas Political Bureau) bear criminal responsibility for the following war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of Israel and the State of Palestine (in the Gaza strip) from at least 7 October 2023:
…
All three persons are already under threat of assassination by Israel. They do not travel and stay out of the public. Even if arrest warrants are granted against them they are unlikely to be concerned by that.
On the other side of the conflict that may well be a different issue:
On the basis of evidence collected and examined by my Office, I have reasonable grounds to believe that Benjamin NETANYAHU, the Prime Minister of Israel, and Yoav GALLANT, the Minister of Defence of Israel, bear criminal responsibility for the following war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of the State of Palestine (in the Gaza strip) from at least 8 October 2023:
- Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(b)(xxv) of the Statute;
- Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health contrary to article 8(2)(a)(iii), or cruel treatment as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);
- Wilful killing contrary to article 8(2)(a)(i), or Murder as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);
- Intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population as a war crime contrary to articles 8(2)(b)(i), or 8(2)(e)(i);
- Extermination and/or murder contrary to articles 7(1)(b) and 7(1)(a), including in the context of deaths caused by starvation, as a crime against humanity;
- Persecution as a crime against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(h);
- Other inhumane acts as crimes against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(k).
Should the arrest warrants against Netanyahoo and Galant be granted they will have to end all travel to or through those many countries which are member states of the Rome statute. (The U.S., Israel, Russia and Sudan have signed the Rome statute but did not become member states.)
Member states are under obligation to fulfill arrest warrants should the ICC prosecutor have valid ones. There is also a stigma coming with the warrants that will prevent pro-Zionist politicians from Europe and elsewhere from meeting with Netanyahoo or other involved persons.
President And FM Of Iran Killed in Apparent Helicopter Accident
You all will have heard by now that the President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi as well as its Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian have died in what looks like a helicopter accident:
Raisi was traveling in a US-made Bell 212. Low visibility and the impassibility of the area made search operations difficult, IRNA wrote.
Rescue teams finally managed to locate the crash site on Monday morning with the help of Turkish surveillance drones.
The wreckage was discovered in a wooded area on a mountain slope. The aircraft was severely damaged and charred, and there were no signs of survivors, the Iranian Red Crescent Society said.
Iran will have acquired the Bell 212 before the 1978-79 revolution. While at least 45 years old it had never had access to manufacturer level maintenance or regular replacement parts. It is likely that the helicopter was not equipped for pure instrument flights but required visibility to navigate.
The weather over the mountain range the helicopter was crossing was bad with video from the scene showing heavy fog.
Under such circumstances the flight should not have taken place. But with very important guests on board, who run on a tight schedule, the pilots may have felt a need to fly despite unfavorable weather condition.
I therefore see nothing that would suggest a conspiracy or foreign influence in the incident.
Raisi was on the conservative, and thereby more social, side of Iranian politics. Within the current framework in Iran his successor will likely by from the same political direction.
Iran's Supreme Leader has already announced new elections:
Khamenei.ir @khamenei_ir – 10:05 UTC · May 20, 2024
In accordance with Article 131 of the Constitution, Vice-President Mr. Mokhber will be the head of the Executive Branch & is obliged to cooperate with the heads of the Legislative & Judiciary Branches in facilitating the election of a new president within a maximum of 50 days.
There will be a bit of a rush to decide which personalities will be allowed as candidates for the next presidency.
Election campaigns in Iran are restricted to short periods. Voter turnout is usually low. While there might be surprises when a winner comes up the political system in Iran, established after the revolution, is quite stable and is likely to prevail.
Palestine Open Thread 2024-144
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-143
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-142
Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:
Ukraine:
Palestine:
Empire:
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-142
Ukraine SitRep: Kharkiv Incursion Forensics – Attacks On Russia And Russian Revenge
On May 11 I had analyzed the Russian move towards Kharkiv and concluded that it was designed to create a 'sanitary zone' along the boarder, not to take Kharkiv:
Thus the Kharkiv offensive seems designed to create a buffer zone, maybe 6 miles / 10 kilometers deep, on Ukrainian land along the norther border with Russia. That it diverts Ukrainian forces from elsewhere and positions them in mostly open land for their eventual destruction is just a welcome side effect.
In a recent press conference President Putin of Russia confirmed this:
As far as the developments in the Kharkov sector are concerned, they are also to blame for these, because they shelled and, regrettably, continue to shell residential areas in border territories [of Russia], including Belgorod. Civilians are dying there, it’s clear for everyone. They fire missiles right at the city centre, at residential areas. I said publicly that if this continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a sanitary zone. And this is what we are doing today.
As for [the seizure of] Kharkov, there are no such plans for now.
The Russian Kharkiv incursion is a direct consequence of Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians.
Likewise is the recent Russian destruction of electrical power generation stations in Ukraine a direct consequence of Ukrainian attacks on Russia refining facilities. As the Russian daily report on its operation in Ukraine noted on May 8:
In response to the Kiev regime's attempt to damage Russian power facilities, the Russian Armed Forces launched a long-range high-precision group strike by sea- and air-based missiles, the Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missile system, unmanned aerial vehicles at power facilities, as well as enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the assigned targets have been engaged.
Ukraine has lost some eight gigawatt of generating power and had to start rolling blackouts:
Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Kharkiv Incursion Forensics – Attacks On Russia And Russian Revenge
Russia, China Reveal Their Global Agenda
There will be more to say about the nearly 8,000 words long
Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on deepening the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership in the new era on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries (in Mandarin) (h/t Arnaud Bertrand).
But for now there are these two excerpts.
On multipolar global governance (machine translation):
The two sides pointed out that the great changes in the world have accelerated their evolution, the status and strength of emerging powers in the “global South” countries and regions have continued to increase, and the world's multipolarization has accelerated. These objective factors have accelerated the redistribution of development potential, resources, opportunities, etc., developed in a direction conducive to emerging markets and developing countries, and promoted the democratization of international relations and international fairness and justice. Countries that embrace hegemonism and power politics run counter to this, attempting to replace and subvert the recognized international order based on international law with a “rules-based order”. The two sides emphasized that the concept of building a community of human destiny and a series of global initiatives proposed by China are of great positive significance.
As an independent force in the process of establishing a multipolar world, China and Russia will fully tap the potential of their relations, promote the realization of an equal and orderly multipolar world and the democratization of international relations, and gather strength to build a fair and reasonable multipolar world.
The two sides believe that all countries have the right to independently choose their development models and political, economic, and social systems in accordance with their national conditions and the will of the people, oppose interference in the internal affairs of sovereign countries, oppose unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction” that have no basis in international law and are not authorized by the Security Council, and oppose ideological lines. The two sides pointed out that neocolonialism and hegemonism are completely contrary to the trend of today's era, and called for equal dialogue, the development of partnership, and the promotion of civilized exchanges and mutual learning.
The two sides will continue to firmly defend the results of the victory of the Second World War and the post-war world order enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations, and oppose the denial, distortion and tampering with the history of the Second World War. The two sides pointed out that they must carry out correct historical education, protect the world's anti-fascist memorial facilities from desecration or destruction, and severely condemn the glorification and even attempts to resurrect Nazism and militarism. The two sides plan to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japan and the Great Patriotic War in 2025, and jointly promote the correct view of the history of World War II.
The 'Global South', i.e. the majority of all countries, will very much welcome this.
On the war in Ukraine (machine translation):
Cont. reading: Russia, China Reveal Their Global Agenda
The Al-Aqsa Flood Operation Is – Despite All Damage – Effectual
On Monday Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah held a speech which to a large part explained the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation and why it can be seen as a success. (Nasrallah is currently the public spokesperson for the various Resistance groups involved in the current fight):
Sayyed Nasrallah maintained that the Palestinian resistance wanted Al-Aqsa Flood Operation to be a chance to revitalize the Palestinian cause and remind the whole world with the Palestine and Palestinian rights thrown in the oblivion.
On the other hand, some Arab regimes promoted ‘Israel’ as a normal entity that preserves democracy, according to Hezbollah leader, who added that the steadfastness of women, children and resistance fighters in Gaza has changed this situation.
Nowadays, Palestinian and the Palestinian rights are being highlighted all over the world, Sayyed Nasrallah said, adding that over 140 states voted for granting Palestine a full UN membership.
Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that the Israeli envoy’s act of shredding a copy of UN Charter over a vote in favor of Palestinian rights displays the Zionist arrogance and carelessness about the international resolutions.
The most important political media scene that reflects the victory of the Palestinian resistance is the moment the Israeli UN envoy raised the picture of Hamas military commander Yahya Al-Sinwar.
Another expression of the success is the fact that Israel has achieved not even one of its war aims:
Cont. reading: The Al-Aqsa Flood Operation Is – Despite All Damage – Effectual
Palestine Open Thread 2024-141
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-140
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2024-139
Sorry for not posting. Still a bit busy with health related issues.
Of interest (may be):
Use as open (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine) thread …
Ukraine SitRep: An Army And Country At Their End
Stephen Byren writes, correctly, that the purpose of the Russian offensive towards Kharkiv is to disintegrate the Ukrainian army:
To my mind, Russia’s objective is to force Ukraine’s army to chase after invading Russian units. The idea is to cause heavy casualties on the Ukrainian side and, if all goes according to plan, either to split Ukraine’s army into two, or disintegrate it altogether.
In such a manner the idea is not just to take territory but to destroy Ukraine’s ability to resist. There are many indicators that Russia is having success in the ongoing operation.
General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence agency, (which includes foreign fighters and Nazis units,) agrees to that. He paints an bleak picture (archived):
Like most Ukrainian officials and military experts, General Budanov said he believes the Russian attacks in the northeast are intended to stretch Ukraine’s already thin reserves of soldiers and divert them from fighting elsewhere.
That is exactly what is happening now, he acknowledged. He said the Ukrainian army was trying to redirect troops from other front line areas to shore up its defenses in the northeast, but that it had been difficult to find the personnel.
“All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” he said, referring to a Ukrainian stronghold about 120 miles farther south that Russian troops have assaulted in recent weeks. “I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”
The Ukrainian military has pulled out parts of various brigades that are engaged in the east and is moving them north towards the Kharkiv region. This will be a hodgepodge of partly filled battalions without a unified command and with nothing left to stuff any holes elsewhere.
Budanov correctly fears that Russian can and will repeat this game in other places:
General Budanov said he expected the attacks in the Kharkiv region to last another three or four days, after which Russian forces are expected to make a hard push in the direction of Sumy, a city about 90 miles to the northwest of Kharkiv. Ukrainian officials have previously said that Russia had massed troops across the border from Sumy.
Pavlo Velycho, a Ukrainian officer operating near the Russian border in the Sumy region, said that Russian shelling of the outskirts of Sumy had recently increased.
The Russian forces can easily progress because the money allocated for fortifications in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions was paid to fictitious companies without any trenches ever being build (machine translation):
Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: An Army And Country At Their End
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-138
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Palestine Open Thread 2024-137
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-136
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-135
Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:
Palestine:
Ukraine:
Empire:
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-135
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