Ukraine $60.0 billion [wsj]
European Command operations $20.5B
Security assistance $15.8B
Replenish U.S. stocks $13.4B
Forgivable economic loans $9.5B
General expenses $900 million

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 21 2024 15:59 utc | 4

James – “this is not a bug but a feature!”
This is THE feature, right? I mean, the whole point of US foreign policy being care and feeding of MICIMATT and Wallstreet, the “war” is the excuse du jour for the spending, isn’t it?

Posted by: Caliman | Apr 21 2024 16:21 utc | 6

Posted by: Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 16:10 utc | 5
That’s the completely crazy policy of the Jewish strategists in the USA: They want Plutin gone and then one of their friends should come – Navalny is now out, but Chodorkovsky would be nice too. But that can’t happen. When Putin is gone, people come who have a much shorter fuse – and they then wage war like Churchill, Roosevelt and Trumann: burning one city after another until the enemy surrenders without question. Apparantly that’s how they want it.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 21 2024 16:30 utc | 8

Scott Ritter with Nima (Dialogue Works).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3KPa_OfbEw

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 21 2024 16:34 utc | 10

Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 16:10 utc | 5
Putin and Medvedev have worked hand in glove for close to two decades. Medvev is now in a position where he does not have to meet foreign counterparts, nor again in the future and can speak freely. He voices what he, Putin, and the entire Russian leadership are thinking and what they are preparing for, where they are headed.
Putin out of office what speak in the same way as the rest of the Russian leadership not in political office.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:00 utc | 12

Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 16:10 utc | 5–
Medvedev was the featured speaker at the most recent Security Council Meeting, which is all the was said in the read-out:

Today, we have several topics to discuss. We will talk about the state reserves and examine measures aimed at enhancing assistance to the population in countering substance abuse. We have several speakers today.
Let us begin with the first topic. Mr Medvedev, you have the floor.

Here’s what he wrote on his Telegram yesterday:

No one doubted that U.S. lawmakers would approve “helping” a gang of neo-Nazis. It was a vote by the joyful American bastards:
a) to continue the civil war of the divided people of our formerly united country;
b) for the maximum increase in the number of victims of this war.
We will, of course, win, despite the 61 billion blood dollars that will mostly go down the throat of their insatiable military-industrial complex. The Force and the Truth are ours.
But given the Russophobic decision that has taken place, I cannot but sincerely wish the United States to plunge into a new civil war as soon as possible. Which, I hope, will be radically different from the war between the North and the South in the 19th century and will be waged with the use of aircraft, tanks, artillery, MLRS, all types of missiles and other weapons. And which will finally lead to the inglorious collapse of the vile evil empire of the 21st century – the United States of America. [Emphasis Original]

Putin has said similar things, just not as graphicly. Putin vowed to end the Empire’s hegemony on several occasions. Putin is more circumspect as befits his position.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2024 17:10 utc | 14

Viktor Orban: “Today in Brussels, the majority are the parties of war”
Ok Orban, now do Moscow.

Posted by: PutinsMOAfluffers | Apr 21 2024 17:16 utc | 16

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2024 17:10 utc | 14
Thank you for that and all your contributions. I have learned a lot from you and so many others here.
I presume it wasn’t lost on Russian leadership that this revolting bill was passed on Adolph Hitler’s birthday, as well.
From ZH:

Breaking down the Ukraine aid – of the $61 billion, $13 billion will replenish US stockpiles of weapons, and $14 billion will go towards US defense systems for Ukraine. $7 billion will go toward US military operations in the region. We assume the remainder will go directly to Ukrainian oligarchs.
The Israel bill, which passed by a vote of 366 to 58, includes $4 billion for missile defense.

Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 21 2024 17:21 utc | 18

Posted by: PutinsMOAfluffers | Apr 21 2024 17:16 utc | 16
#################
If Russia wanted to level Ukraine, it could have done so during ’23.
Do you even know what Article 51 of the UN Charter is?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 21 2024 17:24 utc | 20

Ok Orban, now do Moscow.
Posted by: PutinsMOAfluffers | Apr 21 2024 17:16 utc | 16
Every day, here in MoA, I read posts, telling Putin not to be weakling, to attack cities, to throw the big one.
Each of those posts is testimony to the fact that in this war, the Russians are the side that did not want war.

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 21 2024 17:36 utc | 22

Elena Panina Director of the Institute of International Strategic Studies:
“According to the main result of the vote in the US House of Representatives for the Ukrainian tranche and confiscation of assets of the Russian Federation, very briefly:
Now a big war between Russia and NATO, led by the United States, looks inevitable.”
A big war is inevitable only if the United States and NATO plan and start this war. But even the war that is going on now is not a small war, you must agree. But if the West wants to get a nuclear war, then it will get it.

https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1781937938323910801
With the PACE vote on the “Decolonization of Russia”, the theft of Russian assets in the west, all the rest that is going on – Looks like Europe is going to get a hell of a pounding in the not too distant future. Will be interesting to see if the clowns are stupid enough to go nuclear.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:40 utc | 24

lol… to go with my last post..
“Biden asks Americans to choose between freedom and democracy”
obviously you can’t have both!!!

Posted by: james | Apr 21 2024 17:46 utc | 26

Pierrot | Apr 21 2024 17:45 utc | 25
Thanks for that take. Here in oz, we are gearing up for war with China. If it goes that far, Australia will learn a hard lesson. Much depends though if US is delayed by its other wars or is destroyed/collapses in the process before it kicks off the war with China.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:56 utc | 28

The futility of throwing another $60+ on the fire will, in retrospect, be shown to be a beautiful thing.
The coup de grâce of futility.

Posted by: too scents | Apr 21 2024 17:56 utc | 30

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2024 17:10 utc | 14

Putin is more circumspect as befits his position.

And that is precisely what the Hollywood like politics and politicians in the USA do not understand, how can anybody pretend to be the indispensable city on a hill when your doddering leader goes around the world calling son of a bitch whomever he objects to at a given time, be it an industrial worker in the USA, the prosecutor that investigates the dirty business of his offspring, or the president of a country that can wipe the whole world away. Strange times indeed, with all the ingredients for a tragic ending.

Posted by: Paco | Apr 21 2024 18:03 utc | 32

The Future of Ukraine: American, Ukrainian and Russian Perspectives.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy-Zpe6qWiA [15 mins]

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 21 2024 18:18 utc | 34

Here’s today’s Russian Defence Ministry report: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12509909@egNews
As mentioned in the earlier thread, the qualifier “up to” is used for the estimated quantities of Ukrainian troop casualties.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (21 April 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
The units of the Zapad Group of Forces have taken more advantageous lines and defeated manpower and hardware of 14th mechanised, 68th jaeger, 57th motorised infantry brigades of the AFU and the 110th Brigade of the AFU close to Novoegorovka and Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic), as well as Olivovsky Yar.
The enemy losses were up to 50 soldiers, one infantry fighting vehicle, and two motor vehicles.
In addition, in the course of counter-battery warfare, one 155-mm M777 howitzer and two U.S.-made 105-mm M119 guns, two 152-mm Msta-B howitzers, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, four 122-mm D-30 howitzers, one 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun, one Grad multiple-launch rocket system, and one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare radar station were destroyed.
The units of the Yug Group of Forces have completely liberated Bogdanovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), improved the position along the front line and inflicted a fire defeat on manpower and hardware of the AFU 53rd Mechanised Brigade close to Krasnogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In addition, two counterattacks by formations of the AFU 93rd Mechanised Brigade have been repelled near Chasov Yar and to the west of Krasnoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 440 troops, three motor vehicles, and one Osa-AKM surface-to-air missile system.
In the course of counter-battery warfare, one 152-mm D-20 gun, one Grad multiple-launch rocket system, two Nota electronic warfare stations, and five enemy field ammunition depots were destroyed.
The units of the Tsentr Group of Forces have actively improved their tactical position and inflicted a comprehensive fire attack on manpower and hardware of the 3rd Assault Brigade and the 24th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Leninskoye and Novokalinovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).
During the day, eight counterattacks by assault groups of the 59th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 30th, 115th mechanised, 68th, and 71st jaeger brigades of the AFU have been repulsed close to Novobakhmutovka, Umanskoye, Shumy, Novgorodskoye, and Pervomayskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses were up to 360 troops, one armoured fighting vehicle, eight motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 155-mm howitzer, and one fuel depot for military hardware.
The units of the Vostok Group of Forces have taken more advantageous lines and defeated manpower and hardware of the 58th AFU Motor Infantry Brigade and the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade near Staromayorskoye and Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 100 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and two Nota electronic warfare stations.
The units of the Dnepr Group of Forces have inflicted a fire defeat on manpower and hardware concentration areas of the 23rd Brigade of the National Guard and the 121st Brigade of the Territorial Defence of Ukraine near Vysshetarasovka and Nikopol (Dnepropetrovsk region), Berislav and Zolotaya Balka (Kherson region).
The enemy losses were up to 50 troops, four motor vehicles, and one U.S.-made 175-mm M107 self-propelled artillery system.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have destroyed MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force at the Dnepr airfield, as well as one control centre, one air target detection radar, and one S-300PS surface-to-air missile system.
In addition, one production workshop for unmanned aerial vehicles, one surveillance radar with the Pelikan phased antenna array, as well as AFU manpower and military hardware in 104 areas.
Air defence facilities have shot down 194 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and eight HIMARS and Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems projectiles.
In total, 592 airplanes and 270 helicopters, 22,289 unmanned aerial vehicles, 508 air defence missile systems, 15,816 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,269 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 9,008 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 21,205 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 21 2024 18:22 utc | 36

AFU will get billion$ and billion$ more to continue bleeding russia…money well spent!!!

Posted by: Jailin Assange | Apr 21 2024 18:00 utc | 31
https://www.usdebtclock.org/ would like a word with you…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 21 2024 18:30 utc | 38

I expect a further attack on the crimea bridge will render kiev a terrorist state by moscow.
This will mean that the leadership in kiev, including zelenski, will become legitimate targets.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Apr 21 2024 18:48 utc | 40

HERMIUS | Apr 21 2024 18:48 utc | 40
The Russians have been mentioning May 20th/21st which is the date Zelensky’s five year elected term ends. I assume the have some plans for around then.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 18:59 utc | 42

I’m wondering if Shadowbanned was actually Russell Bonner Bentley.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Apr 21 2024 19:26 utc | 44

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:40 utc | 24
There is something that a lot of folks are missing about this “confiscation of assets” talk. Not saying that you are missing it, Peter; in fact, I would guess that you already get what I’m about to say.
Those assets are owned by INDIVIDUALS not the Russian government. It’s not like the $300B (which is also not a firm number; I’ve read articles that say it’s only $30B and a lot of it already went missing) is owned by the Russian government. The only entity that would hold such assets other than INDIVIDUALS would be the Central Bank, and they’ve long since divested themselves of Western assets prior to the SMO.
So even if some thug steals them, they’re not hurting the Russian government or their ability to operate. They’re stealing from individuals and that means they’re saying their own legal and economic systems are criminal and can never again be trusted. That alone explains why they haven’t already done it. They’re scared about the repercussions.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 21 2024 19:29 utc | 46

America has decided to continue fighting until all Ukrainians are dead.
With friends like these, one wonders who the bad guys- the ones sending tanks shooting at you? Or the ones sending tanks to your government, so your government can continue to poke the bear and keep sending it’s citizens to the trenches to die for their country. Or, more precisely, for the guys selling weapons and ammo to continue making money with weapons and ammo…

Posted by: Marvin | Apr 21 2024 19:37 utc | 48

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 21 2024 19:29 utc | 46
Correct, part of the $300 billion consists of cash repatriated from Russian subsidiaries of Western conglomerates, another part of it is invoice settlement from Russian private businesses to Western counterparties e.g suppliers.
Not to mention that a majority of the balance is actually denominated in €, not $; the ECB have repeatedly expressed concern about the implications for €-based international trading settlements.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 21 2024 19:43 utc | 50

Slava Russell Bentley
I don’t know about all y’all, but I am taking this much harder than Gonzalo Lira’s loss….
The tears were starting soon after stopping yesterday.
And now, we know the story about the 5th Armored tankers was a psyop.
So, what, the only thing we know for sure is, he was taken violently by someone as evidenced at the scene by his car, found by his wife.
Back to waiting, praying and hoping
In all my attempts at finding a credible source, I stumbled upon this.
“Sweet Home, Novorossia”
https://youtu.be/3nGtoThx9Bk?si=IPgZAP6Yo8rTS9uC
Blessings
L

Posted by: Lauren Michele | Apr 21 2024 19:58 utc | 52

There was a rumor that Israel supplied a low yield nuclear weapon to blow up a certain building (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) leaving behind cancer rates and bits of fallout – that were gathered up and sent to landfills.
If they got away with that, thinking that they could get away with a nuclear EMP weapon over Iran seems reasonable.

Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 21 2024 20:01 utc | 54

RE: Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2024 17:10 utc | 14
“But given the Russophobic decision that has taken place, I cannot but sincerely wish the United States to plunge into a new civil war as soon as possible. Which, I hope, will be radically different”
Thank you for the expansion of Medevev response as I had not seen the whole context.
Since Obama at least, the rulers have been pushing an American civil war, pulling out the race card, the class card, the political divide card, invested in rent-a-mobs, border crisis card, abortion card, every flash point and tension raising arena possible to initiate a civil war that the ruling elite can contain and control, resulting in a balkanized Federation of state-lets, with that pesky Constitution/Bill of Rights gone, for easy Corporate/Banking take over control.
We Balkanize every Nation State we walk into, and ours is on deck.
On the ground, I see no such desire from Americans, for any reason, to war within themselves, aside from some gang type scenarios.The latest, is how a civil war would erupt if Trump were “arrested”… no, it wouldn’t. Like all the rest of the Global World, the DC bubble crowd are wholly out of touch with the reality of Americans. All of their newscaster and articles reflect that everyday. All they do is echo their own reality to one another, and try to make their reality, our reality, and its failing badly.
All that said, what I do see on the ground, is a groundswell of anger, resentment, and preparation on the part of Americans to overturn the DC and all governance apparatuses.
A Nation full of angry and trained vets, let alone, medicated populace, from sea to shining sea.
So, Medvedev may well see those tanks, planes and what not plastered across the country. And as Biden once stated early in Presidency, regarding Second Amendment:
“President Joe Biden says at the White House that insurrectionists would need a lot more than guns to take on the US government because it is equipped with a nuclear arsenal and war planes.”
Of course we’d need “more” than “guns”… yet, just like Russia/Iran ect…he somehow doesn’t get how awfully easy the fall of the Governance will be. As if preparation hasn’t been going on for at least 2 decades for this State Department parallel governance to be ousted. I know, the general view is Americans are fat, lazy, self centered, self serving, living in their Moms basement and mind controlled. But none of that counters the anger.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 20:17 utc | 56

Simplicitus, the thinker
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-41924-a-small-gust-for-ukraines
this information was posted in comments
I am maybe boring but the euphoria about Russia easy winning and Putin that is never wrong is wrong.

Posted by: vargas | Apr 21 2024 20:30 utc | 58

I’m wondering if Shadowbanned was actually Russell Bonner Bentley.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Apr 21 2024 19:26 utc | 44

Seems extremely unlikely. ‘Texas’ had a lovely wife and a busy life as a volunteer. I can’t imagine Lyudmila allowing him to waste time as a full time internet troll. That is more the occupation of incels.

Posted by: Drifter | Apr 21 2024 20:32 utc | 60

Posted by: vargas | Apr 21 2024 20:16 utc | 55
at first i thought you were just a young, probable 12-14 years old, kid, with the way you ask stupid questions constantly. but i guess i was wrong, as you show your nafo narrative management lines.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 21 2024 20:36 utc | 62

Joe sleep walking into war
Viktor Orban: “Today in Brussels, the majority are the parties of war. There is a warlike mood in Europe, and politics is governed by the logic of war. Everyone, from all sides, is preparing for war. The NATO Secretary General wants to create a NATO-Ukraine mission. Europe’s leaders are already involved in the war. I talk to them, I hear them. They perceive the war as their own and call it their own war. This is a military whirlwind that can drag Europe into the abyss. Brussels is playing with fire, it is tempting God himself. We remember it well, they have personal experience, we have learned it well. World wars were never called world wars in the beginning.”
As they say, “no one wanted war, war was inevitable.”
https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1781973300396036344

Posted by: jopalolive | Apr 21 2024 20:40 utc | 64

Don’t you think that ukrainians are following the paraguayan scenario? These stupid ukrainians still don’t realize this.
Posted by: Psycho | Apr 21 2024 17:12 utc | 15
I could be wrong, but I do not believe the Paraguayans were funded intra/inter continentally. Otherwise, yes.

Posted by: jopalolive | Apr 21 2024 20:46 utc | 66

lex talionis | Apr 21 2024 17:21 utc | 18–
Thanks for your kind words in reply. IMO, what set Medvedev off was the decision to steal the frozen reserves and “gift” them to the Nazis, which was also part of that omnibus bill. It’s likely the Senate will okay it and Biden will certainly sign it. However, the type of Civil War Medvedev described is very unlikely to occur; if anything, I see something along the lines of the 1960s city riots as that’s where the ferment lies.
Paco | Apr 21 2024 18:03 utc | 32–
Thanks for your reply. It’s hard to get a read on our domestic politics as most media is unreliable and lacks credibility. I should note that Escobar has further investigated what he was told yesterday and said so on his Telegram:

Pepe Escobar on X:
“First of all, as much as I respect Scott, I’m just the messenger of an extremely explosive information leak transmitted by an unimpeachable source.
An Asian source: that’s all I can reveal.
I asked several times for an infallible confirmation and published the information only when the source confirmed that a major world power had totally validated it, but I remained silent.
The source also pointed out that there is a consensus among the great powers that information should be treated in the “this information will self-destruct” style in five seconds.
That never happened.
If the sources retract, and it’s now late at night in Asia, of course I will withdraw the post, with my apologies.
In the meantime, I’ll soon publish a physical analysis of what might have happened – or not.”

And from his X:

VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE
I now have TWO separate, definitive confirmations from TWO ultra high level intel sources from TWO separate Asian nations. Working to get a third – at least a partial acknowledgment.
I moved to Asia 30 years ago. Built a unparalleled network. Trust my top sources a billion per cent.
The original source that led to my first post reconfirmed he stands by it. His words:
“I’m honestly surprised that people are surprised. Do they really think if something like this happened it’s gonna be presented to them in front of their TVs? It’s like history has taught them nothing.”
Working on a first column – probably out tomorrow.
Many thanks to all who offered informed, sharp comment and criticism. This should be a collective effort to get to what might have happened: the shape of it, not necessarily the details as they were leaked.

Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 20:17 utc | 56–
Thanks for your reply. As I told Paco is my reply to you, meaning we agree. All the Divide and Rule measures used over the last 100+ years have made attaining solidarity most difficult, and that’s the main ingredient required to take on the Outlaw Federal government. Starving the government of revenue would be helpful to some extent as that would force more worthless money printing that would drive inflation and further destabilize the financial system. That’s sort of what’s happening internationally as dollar use declines, meaning the flow of tribute is waning.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2024 21:01 utc | 68

Ukie still hemorrhaging over 1k per day losses…..but attacked eight times in just one place…there were others….bit of a head scratcher…
….but maybe it’s the beginning of the end of Act 2. Putin’s a bit of a legal beagle, like Russians in Syria, invited in by the sovereign state and like it or not Ukraine is still sovereign and can invite other countries to come and help it. That’s why its not troops under Nazi flag, it’s individual countries under their own flag. Big legal difference, people may not like it, just what it is.
The Turkey is being carved, best Russia will get at this point is the Donbass and Oblasts that voted to join Russia…..Russia, besides a freeze to the conflict, will also get hopefully in some form of enforceable treaty the ability to let other Oblasts vote in referendums to stay in 404 or join Russia….. otherwise every town on the way to Odessa gets Bakmutted Adrevkaed, Chasov Yared on the long and winding road to hell.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 21 2024 21:30 utc | 70

Some interesting things going on the battlefield, while we all debate missing F35’s with nukes and where the $61B will really end up (hint – 10% for the big guy; the rest to the MIC.)
Russia has taken Novomykhailivka, and now threatening the Konstyantynivka village thru which the last supply road to Ugledar runs.
Should they take that, resupply to Ugledar becomes next to impossible, especially during mud season.
Dima continues his usual over-speculation that “Something big is going to happen” to drive clicks. But he also threw in the towel and agreed that Berdychi is lost to the UAF as well, finally. I guess some posters around here can find another village to cry about.
The RF does well in urban combat. I don’t think Chasiv Yar is going to hold out very much like Avdeyvka did.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 21 2024 21:54 utc | 72

Dima says Berdychi and Semenivka have fallen. Now Russia has a 6km long foothold on the AFU side of the river, direct access to merely fields beyond and the vast, undefensible operational space. Also Novobakhmutovka is about to be liberated, extending this line.
Huge focus of bombing Ocheretyne, disrupting AFU reinforcements and movements here.
Novokalynove-Ocheretyne road is under RU fire control, complicating the situation in Novokalynove for AFU even more, besides heavy bombing. The entire Keramik-Novokalynove agglameration is now one big artillery pocket.
So you can see this entire Avdeevka front seems to be folding everywhere.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 21 2024 22:06 utc | 74

The Ukraine “aid” bill is actually quite underwhelming.
Headline “61 $bn” sounds huge, but only a small portion ever reaches Ukraine – most is for US MIC.
The main purpose of the bill seems to be to increase pressure on EUrope to send more “aid”.
In recent months, EU leaders could conveniently point to US reluctance vs. their own “strong commitment”.
The real question is: Why now?
Something has changed, and I don’t know what (yet).
The “aid” was stuck in Congress for 6+ months, now suddenly it goes through swiftly as…[some simile].
C.C., China is unwilling to lend the US more money for its wars. So it has to get these billions somewhere else. Now, if EUrope does indeed steal the frozen Russian 300 bn, that would greatly undermine global trust in the Euro – leading to a flight into the $?
This may explain the parallel summits in the past week (IMF, G7, EU).
If that’s true, there should be a somewhat serious Euro crisis coming up.
In any case, if ECB cuts rates and Fed doesn’t, look for Euro-Dollar parity (or lower).

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 22:10 utc | 76

unimperator | Apr 21 2024 22:06 utc | 74
Seems Ugledar and Toretsk are the remaining relevant ‘fortress’ towns. All operations now aimed at encircling these two imo.
Question: You mentioned the Ritter video (#10). There’s an awful lot of such videos, or rather audios of him and a few other usual suspects on yt. Do you know if these are legit? It puzzles me that he’d do interviews/ podcasts every single day, and the style is rather strange.

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 22:20 utc | 78

Scorpion | Apr 21 2024 22:19 utc | 77
Well the Europeans think they can settle in for a long war. War is a little different to a limited military operation with limited targeting. Hypersonics may make the war a little shorter than the Europeans imagine.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 22:32 utc | 80

But Peter! I sincerely thought that you did it intentionally, the three repeated blocs of Mr. Orban warning!
I thought: This Is Clever! (even if there were no marks that you indeed knew about this, like the clever /s signs or something).
Please repeat this tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow.
I wouldn’t mind.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 20:48 utc | 67

Posted by: LogosApplied | Apr 21 2024 22:39 utc | 82

The frontlines creeping along a bit are only interesting in that it gives a good idea of the attrition of the defending forces.
What is interesting is the videos coming out of SU-25’s flying low over Chasov Yar. Gives a pretty good idea of the state of air defenses.
As for Manpads, a huge number must have been used in shooting down drones and perhaps a few cruise missiles. Manpads appear to pose little threat. Of the videos I have seen, I don’t see anything being launched against the SU’s.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 22:45 utc | 84

On Ugledar: it always seemed to be a very tough nut for the RF to crack. I recall a failed attempt over a year ago, though my date could be off.
It does not seem like a very large city. I wonder why not just FAB-ing it into the stone age is an option? Are the Russians simply playing too nice?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 21 2024 23:03 utc | 86

Just a hunch, but it seems after Keramik, Novokalynove and Ocheretyne are gone, the road is wide open to the north, leading to envelopement of New York – Toretsk agglemeration from the east (from the rear).
unimperator | Apr 21 2024 22:31 utc | 79
Agreed. If I read the map correctly, Russians also need Chasov Yar & surroundings in order to cut supply to Toretsk/ New-York.
No idea about the time frame. The “Chasov Yar by May 9th” announcement seems to be a set-up, in order to cry “failure” when RuAF doesn’t manage by then. But things seem to be picking up speed, so what do I know.
Still, we’re talking about villages and small towns here. Nothing strategically relevant, only pinning down and bleeding dry AFU units, trying to draw in as many reserves as possible.

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 23:33 utc | 88

The great thing about wars is how effectively they prevent revolutions.
Scorpion | Apr 21 2024 22:19 utc | 77
Err – 1870, 1917, 1919, 1945 Greece, Yugoslavia?
Wars, especially if they’re lost, tend to be catalysts for revolutions imho.

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 23:37 utc | 90

Re Chasov Yar etc – it’s going to be another attritional battleground, like Bakhmut was. It will eventually have operational importance, since it anchors the elevation inside the arc of cities from Slavyansk down. But not anytime soon.
Ukraine is happy to defend it anyway, because that’s their game. Kiev sees the churn as a positive. They collect Western cash in proportion to their manpower, and kill off the population for whom they have only contempt. It’s going to be reduction of UA manpower the whole way.

Posted by: pxx | Apr 22 2024 0:10 utc | 92

Below is a Reuters posting title that makes me see Z as being quite desperate
Zelenskiy urges speedy passage of Ukraine aid in US Senate, transfer of weapons
I believe it has passed and been signed now but will delivery of weapons make a difference at this point? I think it is too little and too late to make a difference in the soon to be outcome.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 22 2024 0:50 utc | 94

watcher@75…..I be waiting for Russia to tidy up 404 first, yapping dogs aside, it’s a long way out at the current bleed attrition rate and that’s happening on both sides, regardless of number disparity.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 22 2024 0:57 utc | 96

What happens when US taxpayers stop paying pensions of Ukies to the tune of $1 billion a month?
Ukraine’s second economic and demographic collapse.
Posted by: Jason | Apr 21 2024 23:34 utc | 89
Assuming that the pensions are actually getting paid now…

Posted by: Honzo | Apr 22 2024 0:59 utc | 98

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 22:10 utc | 76
The Ukraine war is fundamentally a US war against Europe. I believe that stealing Russia’s assets is a trap the US is trying to get Europe to step in. It would make the US dominance of Europe completely irreversible- at least until the US has its own economic collapse, which may not be too far off. The seizure trap is two-fold- first it completely destroys RoW confidence in the western banking system; and second it guts a lot of private concerns, mostly European, that that money is owed to.
That being said, I’m not sure that investors will flee to the dollar. Much of it will flee to China, and a lot will move to local currencies that China is willing to trade in. Dedollarization is proceeding rapidly, and the asset seizure is likely to accelerate it further.

Posted by: Honzo | Apr 22 2024 1:13 utc | 100