Good analysis by Lt Col Danny Davis -
apparently most of the Ukraine aid from the U.S. bill is “back office” stuff, replenishing arms in the U.S. and W Europe. Only about 13 billion for the front line itself. It’s politics, to defend themselves after the coming Ukraine defeat which they hope to push to after the election.

https://youtu.be/6olZPDt5YoM?si=-hsrr074FgHA2LJr

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Apr 21 2024 15:19 utc | 1

On the $60 billion aid package to Ukraine

$14 billion or a little less than one-quarter of the total aid package will go towards buying new American arms for Ukraine.

Some $23 billion will go towards replenishing the US’ own depleted stockpiles.

Meanwhile, $11 billion will fund current US operations in the region while $8 billion will help the Ukrainian government stay afloat.

It's only the latter matters as it prevents the Ukrainian State collapsing before the US elections.

Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 21 2024 15:21 utc | 2

who is surprised most of the aid goes to the military industrial complex, primarily in the usa? this is not a bug but a feature!

Posted by: james | Apr 21 2024 15:23 utc | 3

Ukraine $60.0 billion [wsj]
European Command operations $20.5B
Security assistance $15.8B
Replenish U.S. stocks $13.4B
Forgivable economic loans $9.5B
General expenses $900 million

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 21 2024 15:59 utc | 4

We all know how bombastic Medvedev can be and is, however, this last round I sense he is reaching a point of impatience with Putin cabinet handling of the war. Guessing other more hardliners are as well. Not seeing Putin being able to hold them on leash indefinitely. Think that’s why none of May 21st ( end if Zelensky “term” ) was thrown out there.

Putin would like to maintain course for Kazan BRICS summit, also guessing by end of Putin BRIC presidency, the announcement of BRICS currency will evolve. China & Russia have had to expedite BRIC currency plan manifold due to increased risk. However, I do see hardliners circling the wagons. Hopefully it will balance out with proper timing for all.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 16:10 utc | 5

James - “this is not a bug but a feature!”

This is THE feature, right? I mean, the whole point of US foreign policy being care and feeding of MICIMATT and Wallstreet, the “war” is the excuse du jour for the spending, isn’t it?

Posted by: Caliman | Apr 21 2024 16:21 utc | 6

The weapons will be shipped from the Americas to kill Europeans aboard the RMS Lusitania.

What could possibly go wrong?

Posted by: Hot Carl | Apr 21 2024 16:23 utc | 7

Posted by: Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 16:10 utc | 5

That's the completely crazy policy of the Jewish strategists in the USA: They want Plutin gone and then one of their friends should come - Navalny is now out, but Chodorkovsky would be nice too. But that can't happen. When Putin is gone, people come who have a much shorter fuse - and they then wage war like Churchill, Roosevelt and Trumann: burning one city after another until the enemy surrenders without question. Apparantly that's how they want it.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 21 2024 16:30 utc | 8

Russia's Badminton.

Late in destroying Ukraine's war-enabling infrastructure. Gracefully allowing the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi regime to go untouched--the very opposite of Russia's putative deNazification imperative? Accompanied by major loses of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, sailors, air forces and, as well, the innumerable loses of slaughtered civilians, Russian and Ukrainian? As meanwhile with billions the West doubles down?

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Apr 21 2024 16:30 utc | 9

Scott Ritter with Nima (Dialogue Works).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3KPa_OfbEw

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 21 2024 16:34 utc | 10

Orbon
"Viktor Orban: "Today in Brussels, the majority are the parties of war. There is a warlike mood in Europe, and politics is governed by the logic of war. Everyone, from all sides, is preparing for war. The NATO Secretary General wants to create a NATO-Ukraine mission. Europe's leaders are already involved in the war. I talk to them, I hear them. They perceive the war as their own and call it their own war. This is a military whirlwind that can drag Europe into the abyss. Brussels is playing with fire, it is tempting God himself. We remember it well, they have personal experience, we have learned it well. World wars were never called world wars in the beginning."

As they say, "no one wanted war, war was inevitable." "
Viktor Orban: "Today in Brussels, the majority are the parties of war. There is a warlike mood in Europe, and politics is governed by the logic of war. Everyone, from all sides, is preparing for war. The NATO Secretary General wants to create a NATO-Ukraine mission. Europe's leaders are already involved in the war. I talk to them, I hear them. They perceive the war as their own and call it their own war. This is a military whirlwind that can drag Europe into the abyss. Brussels is playing with fire, it is tempting God himself. We remember it well, they have personal experience, we have learned it well. World wars were never called world wars in the beginning."

As they say, "no one wanted war, war was inevitable."
Viktor Orban: "Today in Brussels, the majority are the parties of war. There is a warlike mood in Europe, and politics is governed by the logic of war. Everyone, from all sides, is preparing for war. The NATO Secretary General wants to create a NATO-Ukraine mission. Europe's leaders are already involved in the war. I talk to them, I hear them. They perceive the war as their own and call it their own war. This is a military whirlwind that can drag Europe into the abyss. Brussels is playing with fire, it is tempting God himself. We remember it well, they have personal experience, we have learned it well. World wars were never called world wars in the beginning."

As they say, "no one wanted war, war was inevitable."
https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1781973300396036344

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 16:55 utc | 11

Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 16:10 utc | 5

Putin and Medvedev have worked hand in glove for close to two decades. Medvev is now in a position where he does not have to meet foreign counterparts, nor again in the future and can speak freely. He voices what he, Putin, and the entire Russian leadership are thinking and what they are preparing for, where they are headed.
Putin out of office what speak in the same way as the rest of the Russian leadership not in political office.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:00 utc | 12

james | Apr 21 2024 15:23 utc | 3

Part of the bill or the package that was voted on was REPO. Theft of Russian assets.

Europe hold most of Russia foreign assets that have been frozen and like okaying the Abram tanks to trigger Germany into okaying Leopards, this will trigger Europe into stealing all Russian assets there.
On the Israel part of it, Johnson's speak on that was pure American Christian Zionism.

One thing about thhis package that was passed. The REPO section will greatly speed up the dumping of US dollar and Euro's by the rest of the world.

Johnson end days Christian Zionism..... crazies, its simply heralding the end of the American empire.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:09 utc | 13

Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 16:10 utc | 5--

Medvedev was the featured speaker at the most recent Security Council Meeting, which is all the was said in the read-out:

Today, we have several topics to discuss. We will talk about the state reserves and examine measures aimed at enhancing assistance to the population in countering substance abuse. We have several speakers today.

Let us begin with the first topic. Mr Medvedev, you have the floor.

Here's what he wrote on his Telegram yesterday:

No one doubted that U.S. lawmakers would approve "helping" a gang of neo-Nazis. It was a vote by the joyful American bastards: a) to continue the civil war of the divided people of our formerly united country; b) for the maximum increase in the number of victims of this war.

We will, of course, win, despite the 61 billion blood dollars that will mostly go down the throat of their insatiable military-industrial complex. The Force and the Truth are ours.

But given the Russophobic decision that has taken place, I cannot but sincerely wish the United States to plunge into a new civil war as soon as possible. Which, I hope, will be radically different from the war between the North and the South in the 19th century and will be waged with the use of aircraft, tanks, artillery, MLRS, all types of missiles and other weapons. And which will finally lead to the inglorious collapse of the vile evil empire of the 21st century – the United States of America. [Emphasis Original]

Putin has said similar things, just not as graphicly. Putin vowed to end the Empire's hegemony on several occasions. Putin is more circumspect as befits his position.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2024 17:10 utc | 14

Well, these fucking idiots are sending our money to Ukraine again, the war continues until the last ukrainian. Don’t you think that ukrainians are following the paraguayan scenario? These stupid ukrainians still don’t realize this.

Posted by: Psycho | Apr 21 2024 17:12 utc | 15

Viktor Orban: "Today in Brussels, the majority are the parties of war"

Ok Orban, now do Moscow.

Posted by: PutinsMOAfluffers | Apr 21 2024 17:16 utc | 16

Hey, Hey, We're The Nazis!
The Kiev regime has gone full on Hitler Youth with a proposed bill by the Parliamentary Committee on Youth and Sports to introduce military training to secondary/high school students (from 11 or 12 years upwards I'm guessing).

According to the Ukrainian Judicial Newspaper on Sunday, the bill will:

“contribute to the improvement of initial military training and military-patriotic education of Ukrainian youth.”

I don't know if it's the translation but Third Reich vibes are definitely present. Clearly ten years of BBC Action/CIA brainwashing wasn't enough and they are going full on Jesuit.

Source RT:
Ukraine considering military training in schools https://www.rt.com/russia/596347-ukrainian-schools-military-training/

Posted by: FakeBelieve | Apr 21 2024 17:19 utc | 17

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2024 17:10 utc | 14

Thank you for that and all your contributions. I have learned a lot from you and so many others here.

I presume it wasn't lost on Russian leadership that this revolting bill was passed on Adolph Hitler's birthday, as well.

From ZH:

Breaking down the Ukraine aid - of the $61 billion, $13 billion will replenish US stockpiles of weapons, and $14 billion will go towards US defense systems for Ukraine. $7 billion will go toward US military operations in the region. We assume the remainder will go directly to Ukrainian oligarchs.

The Israel bill, which passed by a vote of 366 to 58, includes $4 billion for missile defense.

Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 21 2024 17:21 utc | 18

Scott Ritter on X:

This allocation by Congress will allow long-range ATACMs missiles to be sent to Ukraine.

Unless Russia makes clear to both Ukraine and the U.S. that the consequences of such an attack will far outweigh the perceived benefits, it is inevitable that the Crimea Bridge will be destroyed.

Posted by: spudski | Apr 21 2024 17:23 utc | 19

Posted by: PutinsMOAfluffers | Apr 21 2024 17:16 utc | 16

#################

If Russia wanted to level Ukraine, it could have done so during '23.

Do you even know what Article 51 of the UN Charter is?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 21 2024 17:24 utc | 20

In response about the US funding to
"
It's only the latter matters as it prevents the Ukrainian State collapsing before the US elections.

Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 21 2024 15:21 utc | 2
"

I don't think the money will prevent Ukraine from collapsing before the US (s)elections.

I see Russia as way ahead of the curve in destroying NATO military and the nazis with little/no chance of catch up.

We will see if the shit show in Ukraine continues and for how long.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 21 2024 17:25 utc | 21

Ok Orban, now do Moscow.

Posted by: PutinsMOAfluffers | Apr 21 2024 17:16 utc | 16

Every day, here in MoA, I read posts, telling Putin not to be weakling, to attack cities, to throw the big one.
Each of those posts is testimony to the fact that in this war, the Russians are the side that did not want war.

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 21 2024 17:36 utc | 22

@ Caliman | Apr 21 2024 16:21 utc | 6

THE feature... yes, as opposed to 'a feature'... true..

@ Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:09 utc | 13

i hope that does speed up others dropping the us$ that can't happen soon enough..

Posted by: james | Apr 21 2024 17:36 utc | 23

Elena Panina Director of the Institute of International Strategic Studies:

"According to the main result of the vote in the US House of Representatives for the Ukrainian tranche and confiscation of assets of the Russian Federation, very briefly:

Now a big war between Russia and NATO, led by the United States, looks inevitable."

A big war is inevitable only if the United States and NATO plan and start this war. But even the war that is going on now is not a small war, you must agree. But if the West wants to get a nuclear war, then it will get it.

With the PACE vote on the "Decolonization of Russia", the theft of Russian assets in the west, all the rest that is going on - Looks like Europe is going to get a hell of a pounding in the not too distant future. Will be interesting to see if the clowns are stupid enough to go nuclear.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:40 utc | 24

Viktor Orban: "Today in Brussels, the majority are the parties of war. There is a warlike mood in Europe, and politics is governed by the logic of war. Everyone, from all sides, is preparing for war.

(...)

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 16:55 utc | 11

I have to admit that my personal experience is indeed confirming that EU mood. I live near a major industrial military player in the french MIC. Nothing much happened in 2022 and 2023 but I can tell you they have shifted in second, third and fourth gear in a matter of a few months. They want to double the workforce for 2024 and triple it for 2025. Hiring like there is no tomorrow right now with nice salaries, and big bonuses. Head hunters all over LinkedIn and such. There is now no doubt that big government contracts had come home to roost.
In my own plant, which is mostly civil aerospace up to now, our new year greetings by the top group management were quite clear : "times of crisis" await us and we will be making more "military products" in the near future.

They are quietly sleepwalking everyone into a new world war while the sheeple will be watching the football Euro championship, the Tour de France and the Paris Olympics.

But Winter is coming.

Posted by: Pierrot | Apr 21 2024 17:45 utc | 25

lol... to go with my last post..

"Biden asks Americans to choose between freedom and democracy"

obviously you can't have both!!!

Posted by: james | Apr 21 2024 17:46 utc | 26

3 hrs ago

UKRAINE & ISRAEL AID GRAVY TRAIN - The Ugly Politics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6olZPDt5YoM [24 mins]

The "Reality" as distinct from the "Fiction".

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 21 2024 17:47 utc | 27

Pierrot | Apr 21 2024 17:45 utc | 25

Thanks for that take. Here in oz, we are gearing up for war with China. If it goes that far, Australia will learn a hard lesson. Much depends though if US is delayed by its other wars or is destroyed/collapses in the process before it kicks off the war with China.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:56 utc | 28

Senator Rand Paul asked for there to be auditing of the aid sent to Ukraine but he got brushed off. I suspect that the Kiev regime has endless contracts with vendors who are connected, and a lot of the aid will end up going to them. And of course government salaries must be paid, as well as pensions, or there would be an uprising.

I suspect that Russian is paying a lot of attention to warehouses, and areas prepared/being prepared to house munitions and equipment. I also think they have some moles, and eyes on the ground, who supply them with the info needed to make missile strikes when it indicates the targets are high value ones.

Just like in a TV show or film where either criminals or cops are eager to pounce on an incoming shipment, Russia is salivating for word on the when and where of NATO shipments to Ukraine, and then later the details on how they get transported. The collapse of Ukraine's air defense is a big deal in this regard. The recent attack of a train loaded with tracked armored vehicles being a decent example of that.

I wonder just how much Russia can get from North Korea, and Iran. Large, long range, highly accurate, hypersonic missiles are expensive to produce and don't flow like water from the factories. But lesser missiles can have a dominating effect of their own when applied in mass quantities, at critical punctures in a battle, as long as the intelligence is there to know where to launch them. Which I suppose is where increases in drone production will play a part.

If and when the battlefield along and behind the current line of contact becomes massively fluid, I think then we'll see if Russia has anywhere near the number of shorter range missiles, and drones to guide them, that it would like to have. If Russia does, then that could be the time when those who declared, regarding the armor NATO shipped to Ukraine, "It all burns", will feel fully vindicated.

If the line of contact between the opposing forces starts steadily moving to the West, then all the entrenched and camouflaged artillery and armor will become candidates for getting moved as well. It seems that the AFU has made great advances with its drone force, so the seemingly inevitable major battles as Russian Federation forces advance could be the source for a major rewriting of how such combat should be fought. And that's without even bringing up electronic counter measures, which could be a story unto themself.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 21 2024 17:56 utc | 29

The futility of throwing another $60+ on the fire will, in retrospect, be shown to be a beautiful thing.

The coup de grâce of futility.

Posted by: too scents | Apr 21 2024 17:56 utc | 30

AFU will get billion$ and billion$ more to continue bleeding russia…money well spent!!!

Posted by: Jailin Assange | Apr 21 2024 18:00 utc | 31

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2024 17:10 utc | 14

Putin is more circumspect as befits his position.

And that is precisely what the Hollywood like politics and politicians in the USA do not understand, how can anybody pretend to be the indispensable city on a hill when your doddering leader goes around the world calling son of a bitch whomever he objects to at a given time, be it an industrial worker in the USA, the prosecutor that investigates the dirty business of his offspring, or the president of a country that can wipe the whole world away. Strange times indeed, with all the ingredients for a tragic ending.

Posted by: Paco | Apr 21 2024 18:03 utc | 32

Country 404 will become the new Greater Israel the way this is going. It's clear by now that comedian and charlatan Zelensky does not give a toss whether Ukranians live or die.

Posted by: AI | Apr 21 2024 18:07 utc | 33

The Future of Ukraine: American, Ukrainian and Russian Perspectives.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy-Zpe6qWiA [15 mins]

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 21 2024 18:18 utc | 34

AFU will get billion$ and billion$ more to continue bleeding russia…money well spent!!!

If you haven't noticed it's Ukraine & NATO that are hemorrhaging.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Apr 21 2024 18:19 utc | 35

Here’s today’s Russian Defence Ministry report: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12509909@egNews

As mentioned in the earlier thread, the qualifier “up to” is used for the estimated quantities of Ukrainian troop casualties.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (21 April 2024)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

The units of the Zapad Group of Forces have taken more advantageous lines and defeated manpower and hardware of 14th mechanised, 68th jaeger, 57th motorised infantry brigades of the AFU and the 110th Brigade of the AFU close to Novoegorovka and Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People's Republic), as well as Olivovsky Yar.

The enemy losses were up to 50 soldiers, one infantry fighting vehicle, and two motor vehicles.

In addition, in the course of counter-battery warfare, one 155-mm M777 howitzer and two U.S.-made 105-mm M119 guns, two 152-mm Msta-B howitzers, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, four 122-mm D-30 howitzers, one 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun, one Grad multiple-launch rocket system, and one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare radar station were destroyed.

The units of the Yug Group of Forces have completely liberated Bogdanovka (Donetsk People's Republic), improved the position along the front line and inflicted a fire defeat on manpower and hardware of the AFU 53rd Mechanised Brigade close to Krasnogorovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

In addition, two counterattacks by formations of the AFU 93rd Mechanised Brigade have been repelled near Chasov Yar and to the west of Krasnoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

The enemy losses were up to 440 troops, three motor vehicles, and one Osa-AKM surface-to-air missile system.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, one 152-mm D-20 gun, one Grad multiple-launch rocket system, two Nota electronic warfare stations, and five enemy field ammunition depots were destroyed.

The units of the Tsentr Group of Forces have actively improved their tactical position and inflicted a comprehensive fire attack on manpower and hardware of the 3rd Assault Brigade and the 24th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Leninskoye and Novokalinovo (Donetsk People's Republic).

During the day, eight counterattacks by assault groups of the 59th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 30th, 115th mechanised, 68th, and 71st jaeger brigades of the AFU have been repulsed close to Novobakhmutovka, Umanskoye, Shumy, Novgorodskoye, and Pervomayskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

The AFU losses were up to 360 troops, one armoured fighting vehicle, eight motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 155-mm howitzer, and one fuel depot for military hardware.

The units of the Vostok Group of Forces have taken more advantageous lines and defeated manpower and hardware of the 58th AFU Motor Infantry Brigade and the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade near Staromayorskoye and Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

The enemy losses were up to 100 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and two Nota electronic warfare stations.

The units of the Dnepr Group of Forces have inflicted a fire defeat on manpower and hardware concentration areas of the 23rd Brigade of the National Guard and the 121st Brigade of the Territorial Defence of Ukraine near Vysshetarasovka and Nikopol (Dnepropetrovsk region), Berislav and Zolotaya Balka (Kherson region).

The enemy losses were up to 50 troops, four motor vehicles, and one U.S.-made 175-mm M107 self-propelled artillery system.

Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have destroyed MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force at the Dnepr airfield, as well as one control centre, one air target detection radar, and one S-300PS surface-to-air missile system.

In addition, one production workshop for unmanned aerial vehicles, one surveillance radar with the Pelikan phased antenna array, as well as AFU manpower and military hardware in 104 areas.

Air defence facilities have shot down 194 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and eight HIMARS and Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems projectiles.

In total, 592 airplanes and 270 helicopters, 22,289 unmanned aerial vehicles, 508 air defence missile systems, 15,816 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,269 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 9,008 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 21,205 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 21 2024 18:22 utc | 36

Ukraine Weekly Update, 19th April 2024: May be Useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-438

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Apr 21 2024 18:27 utc | 37

AFU will get billion$ and billion$ more to continue bleeding russia…money well spent!!!

https://www.usdebtclock.org/ would like a word with you...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 21 2024 18:30 utc | 38

Near Odessa, anti-fascist Ukrainian partisans derailed another train with Western aid for the Ukrainian Nazis.

I have a feeling that with the beginning of a new season of hunting Ukrainian citizens by the conscription commissars of the Kiev regime, the ranks of partisans who will set fire to military warehouses, derail military trains or transfer valuable information to Russia will grow in exponential way. Moreover, not only in historical Novorossiya, but also in those regions that until recently were considered strongholds of Ukrainian Nazism.

https://twitter.com/SlavFreeSpirit/status/1782099245794738607

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 21 2024 18:34 utc | 39

I expect a further attack on the crimea bridge will render kiev a terrorist state by moscow.

This will mean that the leadership in kiev, including zelenski, will become legitimate targets.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Apr 21 2024 18:48 utc | 40

In thinking about this, how bigger part US will play in the coming European war, I am not sure. Seems like part of a US strategy to tie Russia down in a European war while the US launches its war with China. Passing this package may be aimed at ensuring that European Russian war kicks off more than anything else. It appears the majority of the Ukraine portion is going straight to the US MIC.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 18:56 utc | 41

HERMIUS | Apr 21 2024 18:48 utc | 40

The Russians have been mentioning May 20th/21st which is the date Zelensky's five year elected term ends. I assume the have some plans for around then.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 18:59 utc | 42

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 21 2024 15:59 utc | 4

Some of that $20.5B European Command ops tranche sounds like it could be used to launch strikes deep in Russia, or sponsor more terrorism. It could probably pay the salaries of a lot of fake ISIS-K members, or set up a whole new group.

Not that it is going to change the final outcome, but consider the death toll.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 21 2024 19:19 utc | 43

I'm wondering if Shadowbanned was actually Russell Bonner Bentley.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Apr 21 2024 19:26 utc | 44

„In thinking about this, how bigger part US will play in the coming European war, …“
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 18:56 utc | 41

You seem sure about this coming European war? Well, I personally believe that this war will not happening. I hope I will be right. :)

„AFU will get billion$ and billion$ more to continue bleeding russia…money well spent!!!“
Posted by: Jailin Assange | Apr 21 2024 18:00 utc | 31

Grow up or if you are already an adult, seek help.

Posted by: NoName | Apr 21 2024 19:29 utc | 45

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:40 utc | 24

There is something that a lot of folks are missing about this "confiscation of assets" talk. Not saying that you are missing it, Peter; in fact, I would guess that you already get what I'm about to say.

Those assets are owned by INDIVIDUALS not the Russian government. It's not like the $300B (which is also not a firm number; I've read articles that say it's only $30B and a lot of it already went missing) is owned by the Russian government. The only entity that would hold such assets other than INDIVIDUALS would be the Central Bank, and they've long since divested themselves of Western assets prior to the SMO.

So even if some thug steals them, they're not hurting the Russian government or their ability to operate. They're stealing from individuals and that means they're saying their own legal and economic systems are criminal and can never again be trusted. That alone explains why they haven't already done it. They're scared about the repercussions.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 21 2024 19:29 utc | 46

The NATO Secretary General wants to create a NATO-Ukraine mission. Europe's leaders are already involved in the war.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 16:55 utc | 11

The weird thing is that nobody notices how bad this is.

NATO is - on paper - a defense alliance. If somebody else tanks roll into your country, and you are a NATO member, other NATO member countries may come to help. NATO headquarters may coordinate.

Ukraine not being a NATO member, there is absolutely no role for NATO here.

That talk about NATO needing to "stop Putin before he sets his eyes on Europe: how is that different from Putin "having to stop NATO in Ukraine before they invade Russia?

And the red flashing: that's NATO talk about needing to "Trump-proof" Ukraine funds: that is nothing short of a military coup. Nothing short of generals dismantling parliament in order to rule the world.

If Trump campaigns on defending the war, and if the majority of voters support that position, than what the hell are the generals doing deliberately scuttling away taxpayer money in order to bypass democratic institutions?

Posted by: Marvin | Apr 21 2024 19:32 utc | 47

America has decided to continue fighting until all Ukrainians are dead.

With friends like these, one wonders who the bad guys- the ones sending tanks shooting at you? Or the ones sending tanks to your government, so your government can continue to poke the bear and keep sending it's citizens to the trenches to die for their country. Or, more precisely, for the guys selling weapons and ammo to continue making money with weapons and ammo...

Posted by: Marvin | Apr 21 2024 19:37 utc | 48

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 16:55 utc | 11

One can actually only hope that all those who wanted this war - and there are quite a few of them - will be hanged for it after this war, if it is lost.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 21 2024 19:39 utc | 49

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 21 2024 19:29 utc | 46

Correct, part of the $300 billion consists of cash repatriated from Russian subsidiaries of Western conglomerates, another part of it is invoice settlement from Russian private businesses to Western counterparties e.g suppliers.

Not to mention that a majority of the balance is actually denominated in €, not $; the ECB have repeatedly expressed concern about the implications for €-based international trading settlements.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 21 2024 19:43 utc | 50

One can actually only hope that all those who wanted this war - and there are quite a few of them - will be hanged for it after this war, if it is lost.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 21 2024 19:39 utc | 49

wont happen. unless russia walzes into brussels, london and washington, those genocidal maniacs will run around free. maybe some patiotic civilian in their respective countries will take care of them in a personal matter, but i dont see any official hanging, wheter figurately or literal, happen.

those people refuse to take any accountabillity. they deny any wrongdoing. they cannot see, or even comprehend, that their "good deeds" are directly responsible for everything happening.
and they have swallowed their own propaganda, while getting approvals from their own populations.

no, they will live a long and rich life, in villas paid for by us suckers. they will enact laws and dictats that make them untouchable in the slim chance that russia actually does waltz into brussels etc.
and at worst, they will drag everybody else down with them before taking any accountabillity at all. and we all know that this is exactly the way this is going.

do you really see those deluded manical genocide enablers like von der leyen or stoltenberg even understanding what the heck they are doing? they all see themself as ubermenschen, just like the nazis did. and unless they get their, pardon my german, fresse mit nem ziegelstein poliert, they will keep continiue beeing the way they act now.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 21 2024 19:56 utc | 51

Slava Russell Bentley

I don't know about all y'all, but I am taking this much harder than Gonzalo Lira's loss....
The tears were starting soon after stopping yesterday.
And now, we know the story about the 5th Armored tankers was a psyop.
So, what, the only thing we know for sure is, he was taken violently by someone as evidenced at the scene by his car, found by his wife.
Back to waiting, praying and hoping
In all my attempts at finding a credible source, I stumbled upon this.

"Sweet Home, Novorossia"

https://youtu.be/3nGtoThx9Bk?si=IPgZAP6Yo8rTS9uC

Blessings
L

Posted by: Lauren Michele | Apr 21 2024 19:58 utc | 52

Slava Russell Bentley

I don't know about all y'all, but I am taking this much harder than Gonzalo Lira's loss....
The tears were starting soon after stopping yesterday.
And now, we know the story about the 5th Armored tankers was a psyop.
So, what, the only thing we know for sure is, he was taken violently by someone as evidenced at the scene by his car, found by his wife.
Back to waiting, praying and hoping
In all my attempts at finding a credible source, I stumbled upon this.

"Sweet Home, Novorossia"

https://youtu.be/3nGtoThx9Bk?si=IPgZAP6Yo8rTS9uC

Blessings
L

Posted by: Lauren Michele | Apr 21 2024 19:58 utc | 53

There was a rumor that Israel supplied a low yield nuclear weapon to blow up a certain building (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) leaving behind cancer rates and bits of fallout - that were gathered up and sent to landfills.

If they got away with that, thinking that they could get away with a nuclear EMP weapon over Iran seems reasonable.

Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 21 2024 20:01 utc | 54

Earlier tonight, Ukrainian drones successfully hit the Russian Novo Bryanskaya 750kv substation in Vygonichi, Bryansk Oblast. The substation is currently ablaze.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1781453132884492471

I remind you that Russia/Putin didn't dare to hit Ukro 750kv substation until now. The consequences of Putin's inferiority complex are terrible.

Posted by: vargas | Apr 21 2024 20:16 utc | 55

RE: Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2024 17:10 utc | 14

"But given the Russophobic decision that has taken place, I cannot but sincerely wish the United States to plunge into a new civil war as soon as possible. Which, I hope, will be radically different"

Thank you for the expansion of Medevev response as I had not seen the whole context.
Since Obama at least, the rulers have been pushing an American civil war, pulling out the race card, the class card, the political divide card, invested in rent-a-mobs, border crisis card, abortion card, every flash point and tension raising arena possible to initiate a civil war that the ruling elite can contain and control, resulting in a balkanized Federation of state-lets, with that pesky Constitution/Bill of Rights gone, for easy Corporate/Banking take over control.
We Balkanize every Nation State we walk into, and ours is on deck.
On the ground, I see no such desire from Americans, for any reason, to war within themselves, aside from some gang type scenarios.The latest, is how a civil war would erupt if Trump were "arrested"... no, it wouldn't. Like all the rest of the Global World, the DC bubble crowd are wholly out of touch with the reality of Americans. All of their newscaster and articles reflect that everyday. All they do is echo their own reality to one another, and try to make their reality, our reality, and its failing badly.
All that said, what I do see on the ground, is a groundswell of anger, resentment, and preparation on the part of Americans to overturn the DC and all governance apparatuses.
A Nation full of angry and trained vets, let alone, medicated populace, from sea to shining sea.
So, Medvedev may well see those tanks, planes and what not plastered across the country. And as Biden once stated early in Presidency, regarding Second Amendment:

"President Joe Biden says at the White House that insurrectionists would need a lot more than guns to take on the US government because it is equipped with a nuclear arsenal and war planes."

Of course we'd need "more" than "guns"... yet, just like Russia/Iran ect...he somehow doesn't get how awfully easy the fall of the Governance will be. As if preparation hasn't been going on for at least 2 decades for this State Department parallel governance to be ousted. I know, the general view is Americans are fat, lazy, self centered, self serving, living in their Moms basement and mind controlled. But none of that counters the anger.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 20:17 utc | 56

Posted by: vargas | Apr 21 2024 20:16 utc | 55

Where do you get this propaganda from? You are one boring poster

Posted by: Boo | Apr 21 2024 20:26 utc | 57

Simplicitus, the thinker

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-41924-a-small-gust-for-ukraines

this information was posted in comments

I am maybe boring but the euphoria about Russia easy winning and Putin that is never wrong is wrong.

Posted by: vargas | Apr 21 2024 20:30 utc | 58

"President Joe Biden says at the White House that insurrectionists would need a lot more than guns to take on the US government because it is equipped with a nuclear arsenal and war planes."

One of the most idiotic things ever stated by a rather accomplished idiot.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Apr 21 2024 20:32 utc | 59

I'm wondering if Shadowbanned was actually Russell Bonner Bentley.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Apr 21 2024 19:26 utc | 44

Seems extremely unlikely. 'Texas' had a lovely wife and a busy life as a volunteer. I can't imagine Lyudmila allowing him to waste time as a full time internet troll. That is more the occupation of incels.

Posted by: Drifter | Apr 21 2024 20:32 utc | 60

The consequences of Putin's inferiority complex are terrible.

Posted by: vargas | Apr 21 2024 20:16 utc | 55

###########

Thank God that your inferiority complex only manifests in Nazi-triumphalist commentary.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 21 2024 20:33 utc | 61

Posted by: vargas | Apr 21 2024 20:16 utc | 55

at first i thought you were just a young, probable 12-14 years old, kid, with the way you ask stupid questions constantly. but i guess i was wrong, as you show your nafo narrative management lines.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 21 2024 20:36 utc | 62

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 16:55 utc | 11

Nice touch the magical/psych approach.
Yes, what you wrote was important enough to be stated three times.

Posted by: jopalolive | Apr 21 2024 20:38 utc | 63

Joe sleep walking into war

Viktor Orban: "Today in Brussels, the majority are the parties of war. There is a warlike mood in Europe, and politics is governed by the logic of war. Everyone, from all sides, is preparing for war. The NATO Secretary General wants to create a NATO-Ukraine mission. Europe's leaders are already involved in the war. I talk to them, I hear them. They perceive the war as their own and call it their own war. This is a military whirlwind that can drag Europe into the abyss. Brussels is playing with fire, it is tempting God himself. We remember it well, they have personal experience, we have learned it well. World wars were never called world wars in the beginning."

As they say, "no one wanted war, war was inevitable."
https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1781973300396036344

Posted by: jopalolive | Apr 21 2024 20:40 utc | 64

@ james, §3:
In fact, it´s a new tax.
The new ´kings´ are the Mafiosi bosses of the MIC and corporations like BlackRock.
The new ´peasants´ are all the rest of the population.
It´s just all camouflaged as "People! This is a war for your freedom! For democracy!"
So far it´s working because the Mafiosi have copied Goebbels.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 21 2024 20:43 utc | 65

Don’t you think that ukrainians are following the paraguayan scenario? These stupid ukrainians still don’t realize this.

Posted by: Psycho | Apr 21 2024 17:12 utc | 15

I could be wrong, but I do not believe the Paraguayans were funded intra/inter continentally. Otherwise, yes.

Posted by: jopalolive | Apr 21 2024 20:46 utc | 66

jopalolive | Apr 21 2024 20:38 utc | 63

I didn't realize it had come up three times. When trying to past the link, nothing seemed to be happening. Had a look in the preview and didn't notice. Early in the morning here and I've got no beer.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 20:48 utc | 67

lex talionis | Apr 21 2024 17:21 utc | 18--

Thanks for your kind words in reply. IMO, what set Medvedev off was the decision to steal the frozen reserves and "gift" them to the Nazis, which was also part of that omnibus bill. It's likely the Senate will okay it and Biden will certainly sign it. However, the type of Civil War Medvedev described is very unlikely to occur; if anything, I see something along the lines of the 1960s city riots as that's where the ferment lies.

Paco | Apr 21 2024 18:03 utc | 32--

Thanks for your reply. It's hard to get a read on our domestic politics as most media is unreliable and lacks credibility. I should note that Escobar has further investigated what he was told yesterday and said so on his Telegram:

Pepe Escobar on X:

"First of all, as much as I respect Scott, I'm just the messenger of an extremely explosive information leak transmitted by an unimpeachable source.

An Asian source: that's all I can reveal.

I asked several times for an infallible confirmation and published the information only when the source confirmed that a major world power had totally validated it, but I remained silent.

The source also pointed out that there is a consensus among the great powers that information should be treated in the "this information will self-destruct" style in five seconds.

That never happened.

If the sources retract, and it's now late at night in Asia, of course I will withdraw the post, with my apologies.

In the meantime, I'll soon publish a physical analysis of what might have happened – or not."

And from his X:

VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE

I now have TWO separate, definitive confirmations from TWO ultra high level intel sources from TWO separate Asian nations. Working to get a third - at least a partial acknowledgment.

I moved to Asia 30 years ago. Built a unparalleled network. Trust my top sources a billion per cent.

The original source that led to my first post reconfirmed he stands by it. His words:

"I'm honestly surprised that people are surprised. Do they really think if something like this happened it's gonna be presented to them in front of their TVs? It's like history has taught them nothing."

Working on a first column - probably out tomorrow.

Many thanks to all who offered informed, sharp comment and criticism. This should be a collective effort to get to what might have happened: the shape of it, not necessarily the details as they were leaked.

Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 20:17 utc | 56--

Thanks for your reply. As I told Paco is my reply to you, meaning we agree. All the Divide and Rule measures used over the last 100+ years have made attaining solidarity most difficult, and that's the main ingredient required to take on the Outlaw Federal government. Starving the government of revenue would be helpful to some extent as that would force more worthless money printing that would drive inflation and further destabilize the financial system. That's sort of what's happening internationally as dollar use declines, meaning the flow of tribute is waning.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 21 2024 21:01 utc | 68

@ John Marks | Apr 21 2024 20:43 utc | 65

yes, a new tax... the money has to come from somewhere... or does it?? they seem to have no problem printing endless reams of it..

Posted by: james | Apr 21 2024 21:17 utc | 69

Ukie still hemorrhaging over 1k per day losses.....but attacked eight times in just one place...there were others....bit of a head scratcher...

....but maybe it's the beginning of the end of Act 2. Putin's a bit of a legal beagle, like Russians in Syria, invited in by the sovereign state and like it or not Ukraine is still sovereign and can invite other countries to come and help it. That's why its not troops under Nazi flag, it's individual countries under their own flag. Big legal difference, people may not like it, just what it is.

The Turkey is being carved, best Russia will get at this point is the Donbass and Oblasts that voted to join Russia.....Russia, besides a freeze to the conflict, will also get hopefully in some form of enforceable treaty the ability to let other Oblasts vote in referendums to stay in 404 or join Russia..... otherwise every town on the way to Odessa gets Bakmutted Adrevkaed, Chasov Yared on the long and winding road to hell.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 21 2024 21:30 utc | 70

Oliver Krug | Apr 21 2024 19:39 utc | 49

Look at WW2: Not a chance.

I've come to understand why many critical intellectuals committed suicide after WW2 ended.

They realized that the underlying reasons for the war remained untouched (and unmentioned in public debate). Those responsible for the war continued their careers and business. A few prominent Nazis were hanged, while their backers and enablers walked free. Not to mention ideological continuity: Post-Nazi Germany was just as anti-Communist/ anti-Soviet as Nazi Germany. And anti-war activists were still considered "traitors" - they were only recently rehabilitated.

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 21:39 utc | 71

Some interesting things going on the battlefield, while we all debate missing F35's with nukes and where the $61B will really end up (hint - 10% for the big guy; the rest to the MIC.)

Russia has taken Novomykhailivka, and now threatening the Konstyantynivka village thru which the last supply road to Ugledar runs.

Should they take that, resupply to Ugledar becomes next to impossible, especially during mud season.

Dima continues his usual over-speculation that "Something big is going to happen" to drive clicks. But he also threw in the towel and agreed that Berdychi is lost to the UAF as well, finally. I guess some posters around here can find another village to cry about.

The RF does well in urban combat. I don't think Chasiv Yar is going to hold out very much like Avdeyvka did.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 21 2024 21:54 utc | 72

@ sean the leprechaun | Apr 21 2024 21:30 utc | 70

sean... ukraine has been inviting these foreigners in for much longer then this.. one could go back to 2014 for sure.. this is what corruption looks like.. nato can say all they want, but this is their ongoing destruction of ukraine.. why stop now?? clearly the little people in ukraine have no say... we know they will see none of this usa money either... so, who profits? the military industrial complex of course.. this is why zelensky has been such a wonderful servant and stooge for these same folks.. let nato come, rather then hiding behind all the rest of their lying bullshit - let them actually try being honest for a change.. it would be refreshing! nato line : "we're here because ukraine invited us." sure you are, lol..

Posted by: james | Apr 21 2024 21:59 utc | 73

Dima says Berdychi and Semenivka have fallen. Now Russia has a 6km long foothold on the AFU side of the river, direct access to merely fields beyond and the vast, undefensible operational space. Also Novobakhmutovka is about to be liberated, extending this line.

Huge focus of bombing Ocheretyne, disrupting AFU reinforcements and movements here.

Novokalynove-Ocheretyne road is under RU fire control, complicating the situation in Novokalynove for AFU even more, besides heavy bombing. The entire Keramik-Novokalynove agglameration is now one big artillery pocket.

So you can see this entire Avdeevka front seems to be folding everywhere.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 21 2024 22:06 utc | 74

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 21 2024 21:30 utc | 70

What you say may have been true in June 2022, and even possibly June 2023, but not any more.

The thing is (and Medvedev is the canary) Russia and Russians no longer have any faith in the US or Europe as honest negotiation partners. They therefore know that any stalemate or sort of division of Ukraine leaves Russia too vulnerable, because they cannot trust any peace agreement not to be broken within 5-10 years and the whole thing start up again.

Personally I think that Russia will not stop until is holds Odessa or perhaps if it is an independent but genuinely neutral city - like Singapore perhaps. No foreign bases allowed. Obviously Nikolayev also cannot be in enemy hands. NATO bases must also be removed from Romania and Bulgaria.

I am inclined to think that Russian patience with the Baltic terriers must also end. They are much too close to St Petersberg to be allowed to stay in enemy hands. To be more precise Estonia and Finland will be forced to turn neutral and leave NATO. Just take a look at the map.

Posted by: watcher | Apr 21 2024 22:08 utc | 75

The Ukraine "aid" bill is actually quite underwhelming.
Headline "61 $bn" sounds huge, but only a small portion ever reaches Ukraine - most is for US MIC.

The main purpose of the bill seems to be to increase pressure on EUrope to send more "aid".
In recent months, EU leaders could conveniently point to US reluctance vs. their own "strong commitment".

The real question is: Why now?

Something has changed, and I don't know what (yet).
The "aid" was stuck in Congress for 6+ months, now suddenly it goes through swiftly as...[some simile].
C.C., China is unwilling to lend the US more money for its wars. So it has to get these billions somewhere else. Now, if EUrope does indeed steal the frozen Russian 300 bn, that would greatly undermine global trust in the Euro - leading to a flight into the $?
This may explain the parallel summits in the past week (IMF, G7, EU).

If that's true, there should be a somewhat serious Euro crisis coming up.
In any case, if ECB cuts rates and Fed doesn't, look for Euro-Dollar parity (or lower).

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 22:10 utc | 76

Much depends though if US is delayed by its other wars or is destroyed/collapses in the process before it kicks off the war with China.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 17:56 utc | 28
..............................

The great thing about wars is how effectively they prevent revolutions. First we will all be bled dry until 'owning nothing'. Then we will be made an offer we can't refuse and be 'reset' with universal basic income etc.

Looks like war until about 2029. Still just getting warmed up....

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 21 2024 22:19 utc | 77

unimperator | Apr 21 2024 22:06 utc | 74

Seems Ugledar and Toretsk are the remaining relevant 'fortress' towns. All operations now aimed at encircling these two imo.

Question: You mentioned the Ritter video (#10). There's an awful lot of such videos, or rather audios of him and a few other usual suspects on yt. Do you know if these are legit? It puzzles me that he'd do interviews/ podcasts every single day, and the style is rather strange.

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 22:20 utc | 78

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 22:20 utc | 78

Just a hunch, but it seems after Keramik, Novokalynove and Ocheretyne are gone, the road is wide open to the north, leading to envelopement of New York - Toretsk agglemeration from the east (from the rear). The AFU defense will get seriously stretched trying to hold them and at the same time the Donetsk-Konstantinovka highway, which runs over 10 km west of Toretsk and New York.

Obviously we won't see large changes even after Keramik, Novokalynove and Ocheretyne but I think AFU will be hard pressed to maintain its defense in New York and stretch the defense to the highway.

This is also connected to the Chasov Yar situation. RUAF is pushing to envelope Kanal from the north and south and take over river crossings. Then more reserves will be introduced to cross the canal.

AFU must defend in New York-Toretsk, the Konstantinovka highway (almost a separate, non-synergistic direction), and Chasov Yar - Bakhmut direction.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 21 2024 22:31 utc | 79

Scorpion | Apr 21 2024 22:19 utc | 77

Well the Europeans think they can settle in for a long war. War is a little different to a limited military operation with limited targeting. Hypersonics may make the war a little shorter than the Europeans imagine.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 22:32 utc | 80

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 21 2024 21:54 utc | 72
The pace of Russian victory is picking up - it is still very slow but probably on an exponentially increasing path. 6 months ago it seemed to take 3-6 months to take a village or town. Now it is about 6 weeks.

Posted by: watcher | Apr 21 2024 22:32 utc | 81

But Peter! I sincerely thought that you did it intentionally, the three repeated blocs of Mr. Orban warning!
I thought: This Is Clever! (even if there were no marks that you indeed knew about this, like the clever /s signs or something).
Please repeat this tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow.
I wouldn't mind.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 20:48 utc | 67

Posted by: LogosApplied | Apr 21 2024 22:39 utc | 82

Orban: "Europe's leaders are already involved in the war. I talk to them, I hear them. They perceive the war as their own and call it their own war. This is a military whirlwind that can drag Europe into the abyss. Brussels is playing with fire, it is tempting God himself." So true. Europe's 'leaders' should be careful what they wish for. This reminds me of a scene described in Woodward's 'State of Denial' of a meeting in Bush's Whitehouse when the ambitious neocons were declaring their enthusiasm for war in the mideast, and Colin Powell remarked that you can tell that these people had never been in a real fight before. Europe without big brother US backing it will get its arse handed to it by Russia in short order. If it goes to all out war, Europe won't even function as a placeholder for the US, while the US is still unlikely to go to war with China if that means it has to take its eye off of Iran. A China/Russia/Iran alliance is the US' worst nightmare.

Posted by: Mike R | Apr 21 2024 22:39 utc | 83

The frontlines creeping along a bit are only interesting in that it gives a good idea of the attrition of the defending forces.
What is interesting is the videos coming out of SU-25's flying low over Chasov Yar. Gives a pretty good idea of the state of air defenses.
As for Manpads, a huge number must have been used in shooting down drones and perhaps a few cruise missiles. Manpads appear to pose little threat. Of the videos I have seen, I don't see anything being launched against the SU's.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 21 2024 22:45 utc | 84

I’ve seen separate reports that Russia is wiping out both French & Polish mercs very intensely today. All that new money is of course (besides laundry mat) will be doled out for more payoffs to all the Baltic heads for fresh body supplies. None of these “heads of states” care how many sheep dipped bodies they send in the arena to die.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Apr 21 2024 22:59 utc | 85

On Ugledar: it always seemed to be a very tough nut for the RF to crack. I recall a failed attempt over a year ago, though my date could be off.

It does not seem like a very large city. I wonder why not just FAB-ing it into the stone age is an option? Are the Russians simply playing too nice?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 21 2024 23:03 utc | 86

The great thing about wars is how effectively they prevent revolutions.

Posted by: Scorpion | Apr 21 2024 22:19 utc | 77

Posted by: Konami | Apr 21 2024 23:04 utc | 87

Just a hunch, but it seems after Keramik, Novokalynove and Ocheretyne are gone, the road is wide open to the north, leading to envelopement of New York - Toretsk agglemeration from the east (from the rear).

unimperator | Apr 21 2024 22:31 utc | 79

Agreed. If I read the map correctly, Russians also need Chasov Yar & surroundings in order to cut supply to Toretsk/ New-York.

No idea about the time frame. The "Chasov Yar by May 9th" announcement seems to be a set-up, in order to cry "failure" when RuAF doesn't manage by then. But things seem to be picking up speed, so what do I know.

Still, we're talking about villages and small towns here. Nothing strategically relevant, only pinning down and bleeding dry AFU units, trying to draw in as many reserves as possible.

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 23:33 utc | 88

What happens when US taxpayers stop paying pensions of Ukies to the tune of $1 billion a month?

Ukraine's second economic and demographic collapse.

Posted by: Jason | Apr 21 2024 23:34 utc | 89

The great thing about wars is how effectively they prevent revolutions.

Scorpion | Apr 21 2024 22:19 utc | 77

Err - 1870, 1917, 1919, 1945 Greece, Yugoslavia?
Wars, especially if they're lost, tend to be catalysts for revolutions imho.

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 23:37 utc | 90

Russian advances pose a threat to the sustainability of gains so far. When advancing, more miles should NOT be added to the frontline. More miles mean more troops to guard them and more locations the enemy can penetrate from.

Instead advance on fronts that reduce the frontline. On the war map there are many bridgeheads. Close them by linking the points. That reduces the length of the frontline while gaining territory. When smaller gaps (that look like open mouths) are closed, it allows for the closing of wider gaps.

Very poor offensive flank support from southern and northern flanks. Disappointed. If these flanks attack Ukie positions, a large number of Ukies can be trapped and harvested.

Belgorod must be defended better and that means there should be a buffer zone in North Ukraine. This area has been totally neglected.

Posted by: Jason | Apr 21 2024 23:47 utc | 91

Re Chasov Yar etc - it's going to be another attritional battleground, like Bakhmut was. It will eventually have operational importance, since it anchors the elevation inside the arc of cities from Slavyansk down. But not anytime soon.

Ukraine is happy to defend it anyway, because that's their game. Kiev sees the churn as a positive. They collect Western cash in proportion to their manpower, and kill off the population for whom they have only contempt. It's going to be reduction of UA manpower the whole way.

Posted by: pxx | Apr 22 2024 0:10 utc | 92

Drinks are free tonight at the bar in memory of the brave donbas leaders who fought the ugly, nazi thugs of the Ukraine army between 2014 and today and paid with their lives from cowardly terrorist attacks...

I GIVE YOU......GIVI

I GIVE YOU.....MOTOROLA

I GIVE YOU......ALEXANDER ZACKARCHENKO

Bottoms up Gentlemen!

Botooms up dear friends

Posted by: HERMIUS | Apr 22 2024 0:40 utc | 93

Below is a Reuters posting title that makes me see Z as being quite desperate

Zelenskiy urges speedy passage of Ukraine aid in US Senate, transfer of weapons

I believe it has passed and been signed now but will delivery of weapons make a difference at this point? I think it is too little and too late to make a difference in the soon to be outcome.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 22 2024 0:50 utc | 94

[email protected] in spirit may have been in the Ukraine since 2014 but not as declared NATO combat staff. Grey area but non declared NATO intervention. Mercs, no shortage of them from all over the world....the difference now is, individual EU countries have signed, that's the legal part, can't wiggle out of it, see Syria, Security Agreements with the Ukraine. Russia in Syria is no different than an invite by any sovereign nation (stop laughing, Ukraine is still technically sovereign, okay I'm laughing too) but ZMan is still President. That's my story, based on what the PTB do behind closed doors and based on what appears to be agreed upon non contact protocols.

Anyway, emergency channels are open and monitored, should any 'invited' French soldiers be injured by Russia deliberately, nukes be flying bro.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 22 2024 0:51 utc | 95

[email protected] be waiting for Russia to tidy up 404 first, yapping dogs aside, it's a long way out at the current bleed attrition rate and that's happening on both sides, regardless of number disparity.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 22 2024 0:57 utc | 96

Russian advances pose a threat to the sustainability of gains so far. When advancing, more miles should NOT be added to the frontline. More miles mean more troops to guard them and more locations the enemy can penetrate from.

Posted by: Jason | Apr 21 2024 23:47 utc | 91

What a strange thing to say. Up until now all the doomsters have been complaining that poor, feeble Putin was engaged in frontal assaults on fortified positions, when he should be penetrating the weak spots and opening a war of maneuver. Now that Russia has achieved a clear superiority in troops and equipment in all domains, you call on them to keep grinding. It looks like another case of 'anything the Russians do is wrong.'

Ukraine does not have the offensive capacity to defend its salients, let alone stage meaningful attack out of them. On the operational level, the lengthening of the line is because of multiple operational encirclements of strongpoints, which are now withering for lack of supply and reinforcement. Strategically, lengthening the line forces Ukraine, with inferior, less mobile force and no air cover, to concentrate their forces on the most defensible points, opening them up to encirclement, or spread their forces out to become weak everywhere. This is one of the primary advantages of having superior numbers, not to mention superior mobility and air cover.

We shall see what we shall see, but currently the pace of Russian advances is accelerating, which is strong supporting evidence for the thesis that the Ukrainian military is approaching a tipping point that can easily lead to massive retreats, surrenders or even the complete collapse of the front line.

The smart move for the Ukrainians would be to make a strategic withdrawal west of the Dnieper, but politically this is impossible for them, and they aren't really making the decisions anyway. The Brandon Regime seems to think that the strategy of defending every village and hamlet will push the collapse of Ukraine to the other side of the elections, but I think this is actually having the opposite effect. If Brandon retains the white house, no doubt he can ramp up the war even further, but this supposes that Ukraine will still have an army by then, which their current strategy is making less and less likely.

Posted by: Honzo | Apr 22 2024 0:57 utc | 97

What happens when US taxpayers stop paying pensions of Ukies to the tune of $1 billion a month?

Ukraine's second economic and demographic collapse.

Posted by: Jason | Apr 21 2024 23:34 utc | 89

Assuming that the pensions are actually getting paid now...

Posted by: Honzo | Apr 22 2024 0:59 utc | 98

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 22 2024 0:50 utc | 94

The US aid for the Kiev regime is a bookkeeping operation. Many of the weapons and ammo have already been given to Kiev in the past in anticipation of the aid. Thats why some people on here ask "how is Ukraine still able to fire missiles on crimea" etc.

Now, the US needs to account for it.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Apr 22 2024 0:59 utc | 99

Posted by: smuks | Apr 21 2024 22:10 utc | 76

The Ukraine war is fundamentally a US war against Europe. I believe that stealing Russia's assets is a trap the US is trying to get Europe to step in. It would make the US dominance of Europe completely irreversible- at least until the US has its own economic collapse, which may not be too far off. The seizure trap is two-fold- first it completely destroys RoW confidence in the western banking system; and second it guts a lot of private concerns, mostly European, that that money is owed to.

That being said, I'm not sure that investors will flee to the dollar. Much of it will flee to China, and a lot will move to local currencies that China is willing to trade in. Dedollarization is proceeding rapidly, and the asset seizure is likely to accelerate it further.

Posted by: Honzo | Apr 22 2024 1:13 utc | 100