@James M. #92:

The difference between Minsk and now should be obvious, even to you.

Another unnecessary insult from a person who is supposedly all about the “free flow of ideas.”

Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 13:08 utc | 103

On Chasov Yar. Sorry, long text.

The battle for the Chasov Yar by the clock
As the twice-destroyed reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine die once again
By Marat Khairulin
Judging by the dynamics of events, in the coming weeks (if not days) an immediate battle for the Chasov Yar will begin. The peculiarity of this town is its location on the hills. For example, in comparison with the neighboring Artemovsk, the height difference here is about 150 meters.
Of course, this will make our progress difficult, but it is not critical. For example, the Canal microdistrict is located at approximately the same heights as the main urban area located behind the Seversky Donets Canal. Our troops, however, calmly entered it and continue to move forward confidently.
The Ukrainians, however, are trying to turn the canal itself into the main line of defense. And it is no coincidence that our offensive is successfully developing precisely in the direction of the three main crossings over it. This is a crossing on the Artemovsk-Konstantinovka highway, where there is an almost kilometer-long section of the canal hidden underground. This is, in fact, the Canal microdistrict itself and the automobile bridge behind it. Well, there is exactly the same kilometer-long underground section of the canal near the village of Kalinovka just outside the village of Bogdanovka.
The first section beyond Ivanovsky is de facto already under our control: these days, units of the 11th assault amphibious brigade (the very “Buryats” who terrify the AFU) and 4 separate brigades (also a very harsh, constantly fighting brigade, which is also called Lugansk – it includes the very battalion “Prizrak”) with a sharp leap advanced through the forest, located north of Ivanovsky, and took up positions in the area of the crossing. It cannot be ruled out that during these hours the guys have already consolidated their success and took the river crossing.
If we draw parallels with the Avdiivka operation, near Avdiivka, our troops first occupied the initial lines for the attack – the area of the Terikon and the bridgehead in front of Stepovoe, cutting the only railway coming from the North to Koksokhim.
Under the Chasov Yar, this is the exit to the three main points of crossing the canal, which I mentioned above. The second stage is the elimination of the heavy AFU artillery and MLRS, which can stop us.
Near Avdiivka, this stage was completed in about two months, and immediately after the New Year we went ahead.
Now there is a similar increased fire impact in Chasov Yar, everything is coming in: aviation, helicopters, artillery and MLRS.
The Chasov Yar differs from Avdiivka by that the positioning of the AFU artillery- it is narrower here and much smaller in areas where guns can be hidden.
The depth of the AFU front is also much less, our aviation reaches the entire depth with a margin. In short, there is hope that this stage will end even faster here. But for now, the AFU is resisting.
Now, as for the combat forces, the 11th brigade was in a fairly calm rear (Kherson direction) before the start of this battle, it was well re-equipped and manned. And today it is one of the most combat-ready assault units in our army on the line of contact.
In fact, both brigades, together with the attached regiments, are divisions in number or even surpass them. In any case, these are very powerful units.
Therefore, the Chasov Yar, or rather the AFU located there, are doomed, neither the dominant heights nor the Seversky Donets canal will help them. Apparently, even the Ukropian propaganda understands this and its current main mouthpiece is the cannibal Syrsky.
Note how he publicly feels sad about Chasov Yar: “the situation is difficult, nor enough of this or that, and in general, Chasov Yar is not of strategic value. Not as tasty as Avdiivka.
But in fact, Syrsky is sad, because the operation in Chasov Yar has its main goal – the destruction of the remnants of the shock fist of the once most powerful “personal” grouping of Syrsky’s troops – “Khortytsia”. Just as the backbone of the most combat-ready and numerous group at that time, Tavria (General Tarnavsky), was broken near Avdiivka. Now, under Chasov Yar, we are grinding the remnants of the most combat-ready troops of Ukropia. The only difference is that we started to rattle the Khortytsia back in the winter of the 23rd – in the battle for Bakhmut.
At that time, Khortytsya suffered losses of about 60 thousand people, but it still remained the most formidable force in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Then, in the summer of 2023, Syrsky moved it to Bakhmut, trying in parallel with the Zaporozhye “counteroffensive” to break through our defenses near Bakhmut. It was the most packed direction with Ukrainian soldiers- at the line of 16 kilometers (from Andreevka-Kleshcheyevka in the south to Berkhovka in the North) Syrsky was advancing with a group of almost 120 thousand people.
He was opposed by only three of our support units – the 4th Lugansk Brigade, the 98th Airborne Division (Ivanovo) and the 200th (Arctic) brigade. Syrsky, having a similar advantage, managed to advance (near Kleshcheyevka, near Berkhovka) no more than five kilometers. Actually, his fame as the “invincible savior of Kharkov” ended there.
Tarnavsky, in his counteroffensive, managed to advance almost 20 kilometers and even take several villages, while Syrsky received a barrel with butter.
But the total losses of Khortytsia during the summer campaign were estimated at 90 thousand corpses (including Kupyansk and Svatovo directions). Actually, after that, he received the call sign “General 200”. There is another interesting point here: immediately after the end of the next Bakhmut attack of Syrsky, our Arctic Brigade almost single-handedly passed the very five kilometers that the “ogre” had been pushing all summer, and successfully entered Bogdanovka, preparing a springboard for the current successful offensive.
And now let’s count: 60 thousand in the winter-spring 2023 season near Bakhmut, another 90 thousand in the summer – also mostly near Bakhmut.
By the autumn of last year, Khortytsya, which at the end of the 22nd was considered the largest military unit among the 4 main formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (240-260 thousand people), lost 150 thousand in just one year.
As a result, all the main units, I emphasize, are the best that remain at Khortytsia now, concentrated in the defense of the Chasov Yar – one at a time, and most have already been completely reformed twice. That is, they were completely broken once or twice.
But let’s take a closer look at them, as this in itself is very interesting.
The mainstay and the most combat-ready 93rd brigade “Kholodny Yar” is in the first place. It’s almost a division in size. It was broken twice in two years.
Interestingly, the “Cold Ones” were considered the most combat-ready, because they fought mainly on the best captured Russian equipment. These are primarily T-72, T-80 and even a few T-90 tanks. As well as the best that the AFU had – T-64 “Bulat”. The “cold ones” were the favorites of the Americans, and, for example, during the autumn-summer campaign of the 22nd year, some units were directly led by American officers. However, when the Bakhmut meat grinder began, they quickly ran away.
In second place is the 46th airmobile (amphibious) brigade, trained by the British in England, the most, by the way, unkempt – it was only once at the reformation.
Next, the 92nd airborne assault brigade (destroyed twice). These are generally suicide bombers. Like the 110th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Avdiivka. They distinguished themselves by massacring Russian POWs together with the Kraken battalion in the village of Novoselovskoye near Svatovo in the autumn of the 22nd. Then 16 fighters of the Lugansk militia (now the same 4th brigade) died a martyr’s death. They put bags on their heads and strangled them.
Oh, what will happen when the Lugansk people get to that 92 brigade.
Together with the 80th airborne Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they entered Kupyansk and are responsible for the mass cleansing of the civilian population. The fact of three mass shootings of civilians by soldiers of the 92nd, along with the Kraken and Tornado, is considered proven.
Further details – the 28th (Lviv brigade), 42nd, 67th, 93rd – all have already been assigned to complete reformation twice. And some, like the 28th and 42nd, are considered conditionally destroyed already during the current offensive of our army. The pitiful remnants of these brigades are not being withdrawn, because there is simply no one to replace them.
As for, for example, the 67th – it was formed on the basis of the Right Sector, it, by the way, included the battalion of punishers “Da Vinci Wolves” (Yarosh’s personal beasts). Even their own command does not like them.
It is clear that the morale of these units, which have been broken more than once, is so-so. It is no coincidence that Syrsky urgently sent two brigades that distinguished themselves under Avdeeva – 3 (on the basis of Azov) and 47, apparently, as detachments under Chasov Yar.
The fact is that in each of the above brigades, there have already been soldier riots. And now, according to the intercept, the AFU in Chasov Yar are openly worried and openly discussing their prospects.
The main leitmotif: they promised victory in Avdiivka, but a big lose came… And it’s the same here, the question is, why cling… to find your nameless grave in Chasov Yar?
Previously, the fighting spirit of the Ukropian army was based on the excellent Kharkov and Kherson offensive, as well as faith in the holy Western “Javelin”. Now comes sobering up. All that remains for Syrsky is to drive the detachments here.
In short, the AFU in Chasov Yar are doomed, since the settlement itself is an order of magnitude smaller than the same Bakhmut and Avdiivka, it simply will not work to organize a large-scale fortified area here. You can’t pull off a lot of strength, they’re already sitting on top of each other, which is why their losses are monstrous.
It is no coincidence that our Ministry of Defense reported the other day on the grave of almost six hundred ukrainians from one unit in just one strike.
And there is nowhere to take reserves – all directions of the front are overloaded. Those who are now dying in Chasov Yar, these are the reserves. And they have nowhere to retreat either.

https://twitter.com/vestnik_russia/status/1781297375878729945

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 19 2024 13:19 utc | 105

I really do not understand how is Unraine still able to stop Russian attacks.
Posted by: vargas | Apr 19 2024 11:18 utc | 81

Not curious enough to go check, but still mildly curious:
Does vargas pop into Palestinian threads with the question “I really do not understand how is Hamas still able to stop Israeli attacks” or his simplemindedness is limited only to Ukranian threads?

Posted by: Poslan1 | Apr 19 2024 13:36 utc | 107

Well it looks like Ukraine got a hold of some more anti-air missiles :
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/27392438/russia-bomber-shot-down-ukraine/
Posted by: bored | Apr 19 2024 13:04 utc | 102
They’re saying S200, old fixed SAM type.300 km range.
Assuming it didn’t get too close then it was either shot down from Odessa over crimea or closer to the front line from Dnipro (or something in between) tough bird as it seems to have flown hundreds of nautical miles before spinning and crashing (from the photos)…
I’m not sure I’m buying that story, and they couldn’t have an s200 close enough for a kill near Stavropol. But even a meteor would have to be fired from Georgia to make that kill there… Strange

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 19 2024 13:41 utc | 109

That’s the same point as above. It puts Serbia in a relation of dependence to France, which is a NATO appendage. Why couldn’t Serbia buy Russian weapons ?´
Posted by: Micron | Apr 19 2024 13:18 utc | 105

well, they couldnt. the eu has closed the airspace to russian planes and truckts etc, so how exactly would those russian planes be delivered?
oh sure, china could buy them and then sell them to serbia, and then the eu/nato would put even more pressure on serbia with sanctions or more “humanitarian interventions” because they dared to defend themself against those “moderate freedomfighters” from kosovo.
and china would then also face consequences, closed airspace or whatnot.
you do understand that serbia is completely surrounded by agressive nato countries? and even those that are friendly HAVE to dance to brussels dictat.
geography.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 19 2024 13:55 utc | 111

“Unacceptable losses is exactly what Russian Armed Forces have been suffering under Kiev (in the words of Russian Colonel Pyotr Shuvalov, “…the regrouping was inevitable—during those days we already lost more modern (emphasis on the word ‘modern’) equipment than we have in service today.”). Therefore, the proper term for what happened in Spring 2022 is retreat.”
Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 13:35 utc | 107
You are incorrect.
Russia ‘did’ a feint towards Kiev to (a) pressure the Kiev government into a peace agreement (b) for the Uke military to reinforce Kiev which
took troop away from the front which made it easier for the Russians to conquer critical Donbass areas.
Result: (b) worked and, (a) was within a kunt hair from succeeding.
There was not enough Russian military to besiege Kiev in the first place.

Posted by: canuck | Apr 19 2024 14:18 utc | 113

Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 13:48 utc | 111
Sorry, this isn’t exactly related to your point, but your comment brought this to mind and maybe it’ll be of general interest.
A question I’m interested in is why Empire strategists instructed their media (infowar troops) to attack Prigozhin and like-minded officers with such energy. Prigozhin they did nothing except complain about when he was on the rise, gloat at his impending death after the “rebellion” (how is it Russia’s enemy knew beforehand with such certainty?) and then claim he was a traitor all along after his death!!!!
Leaving aside other considerations, I think a major fear of Russia’s enemies was the possibility that Wagner’s command culture of merit and accountability could substantially displace the slow, stationary or even reactionary reform pace exemplified by the Black Sea command, which appears to have mostly squandered the time since the start of SMO.
It’s not all bad news but the recent defence of Belgorod against mixed mercenary forces featured complains from Russian drone operators that fire delays were still sometimes on the order of ten minutes and that these missed opportunities lead to enemy forces having to be defeated in direct combat. The border area is almost all open fields, open roads and country lanes.
Slow, uneven, ineffective reform can only be compensated for by additional losses in men, matériel and civilians, making it all the easier to damage Russian interests.

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 19 2024 14:26 utc | 115

I see a few of the peculiar breed of strutting peacock types that compose the NATO braintrust are here to talk up the futile efforts of NATO to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. NATO isn’t capable of such a feat. They have however deeply wounded their own economies with this vainglorious imbecility. A fact which can only be concealed for so long.
NATO doesn’t just have out of date doctrine and inferior weapons, it has a officer class largely composed of people with room temperature IQs who have never fought a peer enemy.
And what else can they do? Having put all their eggs in one basket that is now clearly falling apart, they have nothing left but rhetoric and vague gestures. Terrorism and flailing arms around, grand pronoucements before an adulating, uncritical press.
These one sided boosters, ideologues who accuse others of being delusional are merely projecting. They post their rather weak and tendentious arguments at least as much to try to reassure themselves of their worldview as anything else. Recent events shake their faith, as they should.
To wit, NATO is a paper tiger whose populace will not fight WW3 in order to keep an incompetent, past their best before date ‘elite’ in position. The citizenry will eat the elite first. Once the economic hardships start these clowns dream their surveillance states will save them. They won’t. Enjoy your dissembling. It’s meaningless.
Also try analysis without a bias, it’s illuminating.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 19 2024 14:27 utc | 117

Unacceptable losses is exactly what Russian Armed Forces have been suffering under Kiev (in the words of Russian Colonel Pyotr Shuvalov, “…the regrouping was inevitable—during those days we already lost more modern (emphasis on the word ‘modern’) equipment than we have in service today.”). Therefore, the proper term for what happened in Spring 2022 is retreat.
Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 13:35 utc | 107
Who is this Shuvalov ? Does he have an Instagram, Youtube, and Onlyfans account ? And does he have 3 PhDs and 10 theses on the art of war ? What, no ? Faaaaake ;-). Paging my Martyanov here…
In reality you’re right. It was a retreat. And that’s ok because, as simplicius convincingly demonstrated, Russia only went with 80-100k combat troops in Ukraine, which was way too small to be able to win on the battlefield. Only people living in the fantasy of Russia muh strong & invincible would have trouble admitting this.

Posted by: Micron | Apr 19 2024 14:29 utc | 119

@PalmaSailor #113:

I’m not saying that it should or it shouldn’t, but I am saying that if the aim is to exhaust and de militarise the enemy then a few miles here or there doesn’t matter.
…
But I get it that you don’t understand that.

The aim is also to liberate the people of Donbass and to allow the territories that have already been liberated to begin reconstruction. The aim is also to demoralize Ukrainian soldiers by showing them that they can’t hold the lines against Russian forces. The aim is also showing the world that, despite all the help provided to the Ukraine by NATO, Russia is still advancing (even if slowly).
But I get it that you don’t understand that.

Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 14:39 utc | 121

@canuck #114:

Russia ‘did’ a feint towards Kiev to (a) pressure the Kiev government into a peace agreement (b) for the Uke military to reinforce Kiev which
took troop away from the front which made it easier for the Russians to conquer critical Donbass areas.
Result: (b) worked and, (a) was within a kunt hair from succeeding.
There was not enough Russian military to besiege Kiev in the first place.

Yes, there wasn’t enough Russian forces to besiege Kiev, which means that (a) couldn’t possibly work. You can’t pressure someone with something that can’t do anything to that someone. Regarding (b), no troops have been pulled from Donbass. I suggest you reread Ruslan Pukhov’s “From ‘Special’ to ‘Military’ ” to get a clearer picture of how things played out.

Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 14:51 utc | 123

Yes ! This is the fundamental problem of this war since it began. There is no limit other than full extinction of Ukraine. I truly pray for mass surrenders or rebellion because this will be horrific.
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 19 2024 14:46 utc | 123
Ukrainian society is like ISIS. There is no limit in losses. They can accept totsl anihilation without remorse. Or the stories about the huge Ukro losses are lies.
Therefore, it is better and more humane for Russia to destroy 750KV network and make Ukraine uninhabitable.

Posted by: vargas | Apr 19 2024 15:07 utc | 125

I suggest you reread Ruslan Pukhov’s “From ‘Special’ to ‘Military’ ” to get a clearer picture of how things played out.
Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 14:51 utc | 124
There it is! I was just writing a post to ask you to post that article again. It didn’t get much play, if any, when you posted it 2 or 3 times recently. And I failed to save it.
People should read it, especially the conclusion.
It should give pause to those who think they know what Russia should be doing.
P.S. Can you give instructions again on how to search for your moniker S ? I have not been able to get the search function to do that and I wanted to look for that article. You also had a post explaining who Pukhov is that you could repost. Thanks.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Apr 19 2024 15:16 utc | 127

> Well it looks like Ukraine got a hold of some more anti-air missiles :
> Posted by: bored | Apr 19 2024 13:04 utc | 102
But there is nothing seen supporting “rocket attack”.
We only see a “flat spin” after velocity zeroed, and the burning engines.
Not even pilots jetissonned and “hanging” near the doomed plane we can see, suggesting the video captured only the very later moments of the disaster.
—-
Now, the production of Tu-22M3 ceased in 1993, the production of NK-25 engines ceased in 1996. Not even factories left.
Tu-22M4 derivative was proposed to fly with NK-32 engines from Tu-160, but it never materialized in “the holy 1990-s”.
The recently built NK-32-02 engines were considered for remotorization: https://web.archive.org/web/20201126184556/nvo.ng.ru/realty/2020-11-12/1_1117_aviation.html
However their produciton rate is slow and even the strategic Tu-160M – the primary and tested recipients of them – are not remotorized yet. https://topwar.ru/176811-dvigateli-nk-32-02-i-buduschee-dalnej-aviacii.html

Posted by: Arioch | Apr 19 2024 15:38 utc | 129

True, Ukraine + NATO + US has essentially unlimited natural resources, industrial capacity, and money.

‘unlimited industrial capacity? Really? You cannot possible believe that, given the inability to produce even enough dumbfire mortar rounds to keep up with Russia. The West has deindustrilized in favor of a hollowed out, financier economy. Just drive around the Midwest to see the effects.
Shockingly to Maerica, it turns out you can’t fight great power wars on credit. Paper is great for corrupting quislings but not so great for fighting wars. Also you can’t eat it. Good for asswipe though.
Then we can talk about engineering prowess. What was the last innovation made in Maerica? The cronut? The world’s best engineers are Indian, Iranian, Chinese, Russian. Maerica and her vassals don’t even make the list. Humanities are big though.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 19 2024 15:57 utc | 131

> betraying all the people who believed in Russia,
> Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 13:00 utc | 100
these guilting attempts would never end, will they?
Well, S, i bellieve in you sending my $1000, i believe in you so strong!!! Where is my money? how dare you betraying me???
————
> Who is this Shuvalov ?
Easy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyotr_Andreyevich_Shuvalov
an influential Russian statesman and a counselor to Tsar Alexander II.
Some people have a knack to borrow historical names for their pennames. Just like Rezun/Suvorov did.
> Does he have an Instagram, Youtube, and Onlyfans account?
They have TG, but it is of limited production rate, they could cook their stuff more often.
However, those rare posts seem to be gems, readily reported by “new democratic Tataria”, Tomas Palmer and similar… independent media. Of whom only Google knows, and S the devoted collectioner of obscure pro-Western sources.
> during those days we already lost more modern (emphasis on the word ‘modern’) equipment than we have in service today
…and he proves this “BREAKING NEWS” how exactly? Well, he proves it by A-50 AVACS shot down on 2024-01-15. Make it sink, this reasonable and knowledgable colonel proves his claims about February 2022 by events of January 2024. https://t.me/shouvalov/180
They are real stars of stand-up though: https://t.me/shouvalov/199
Everything is as transparent as oil drops, falling from tank tracks into Donbass steppes
Ayah! i second this. Tanks are so known for dripping “transparent oil drops” on the go. Well, those rusty derelict Russian tanks, i mean.
Meanwhile NATO is affectionately watching RuArmy lowering from XXI centrury warfare to, initially, second-half of XX century, and then ti the 1st half, and now our vision fallen below historic navel and we explore new horizons there”
So coherent a rant.
I’ll explain it to you in layman’s terms: wasting expensive and few rockets at Ukrainian power grid is not weakening NATO military potential that much. Don’t ask why, just trust my word on it.
Yeah, what a superior and coherent explanation.
And NATO they are preparing to the war with us, just it makes more sense for them to passively wait RuArmy is steadily degrading to the 1700 grade army
What concerned and coherent thinkers they Shuvalov are!

Posted by: Arioch | Apr 19 2024 16:13 utc | 133

The Turkish gas pipeline, which runs through Bulgaria, and transports Russian gas to Serbia and Hungary… the “Turkish Stream”… may remain the only pipeline carrying Russian gas to the EU from the beginning of 2025.
Interesting articles (below) on the impact to Ukraine, Russia and the E.U. if the gas pipelines through Ukraine are shut down.
Not all is doom & gloom… but every action has a reaction.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/leaked-documents-reveal-kremlin-control-over-turkish-stream-pipeline-construction-through-bulgaria/
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91649

Posted by: Retaining_H2O | Apr 19 2024 16:29 utc | 135

S #66:

Given that 11 days later his wife still hasn’t been allowed to talk to him, it’s possible that he’s dead. I hope I’m wrong.

Unfortunately, I wasn’t wrong. Russell is dead.
Margarita Simonyan reports:

Russell Bentley, also known as Texas, a real American, really from Texas, died in Donetsk.
He fought there for our people. He worked with our Sputnik.
Terrible. [Let him enter — S] The kingdom of heaven…

Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 16:43 utc | 137

Ukraine is winning this war. Putin thought he could shock and awe a failed state — he lost the battle of Kyiv. Ukraine was a powerful state. Vlad got punked by his advisors.
Russia has failed in all their objectives. We used to hear in 2022 that Russia was about to ‘close the cauldron’ in the East — what a joke. Russia can’t even perform a large scale pincer movement.
The Russian strategy is idiotic. They are storming fortified defenses! Imagine if Hitler had been stupid enough to dig in at the Maginot Line and was stuck there for two years. Russia should have gone around these defenses.
Russia has lost more lives than the US did in Vietnam. Calling this a glorious inevitable victory is an insult to all the soldiers who died. At the current pace, Russia will take Kyiv …. in hundreds of years.

Posted by: Napoleon | Apr 19 2024 17:17 utc | 139

Reply to 135
I fear this could be worse than WW1 because Ukraine is being externally propped up by endless demands and resources. This way, “to the last Ukrainian” isn’t glib hyperbole. I think this differs from WW1 France.
I suppose killing off 2 – 3 million Ukrainian males is impractical, given that they’ve only eliminated 500K so far. Destroying electricity supplies looks experimental as to emptying cities. Maybe they hunker down in front of street campfires and NATO can give them unlimited hand held rifle ammo.
So, I wonder if Russia should encircle each city and demand surrender or death. This could get them past the need to kill off extreme numbers since then mass surrender could actually happen and not this dozen or so. Much more humane.

Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 19 2024 17:34 utc | 141

Ukraine is winning this war.

You can keep repeating this to yourself, perhaps you find it comforting. However, it doesn’t make it true, I am sorry to tell you.
I find your selection of a moniker highly ironic. Napolean was no ideologically blinkered follower, but a flexible pragmatist and realist.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 19 2024 17:40 utc | 143

S @ 138

Russell Bentley, also known as Texas, a real American, really from Texas, died in Donetsk.

Tragic to hear, Simonyan is authoritative so I guess that’s that. I really doubt the “tankers” story, I’m sure it’s SBU if not CIA – thing about “cops” is that they are petty and vindictive. I followed Bentley since before the SMO when he was fighting with the Donbas militia and before YouTube banished him, he had the honor of being one of the first to get banned. He rambled in his videos interviews and was alarmist but he was a concise and capable writer. Late in life he had found true love and contentment in the Donetsk war zone of all places. I’m not a religious man but he was, tomorrow I’ll go and light a candle in the cathedral for him. If he’s right about God maybe it’ll do me some good too.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Apr 19 2024 17:45 utc | 145

@ 138
Thank you, ‘s’
I had found something on russiavsworld.com about Russell being found, decapitated.
I almost posted it to let everyone know.
Seeing as it is a ukronazi outlet, I decided to wait and hold out hope that whoever kidnapped him last week would treat him humanely.
God Bless Russell Bentley and all who care for him.
I think it is psychohistorian who often reminds us that….
“The sh%show continues until it doesn’t ”
Blessings,
L

Posted by: Lauren Michele | Apr 19 2024 17:52 utc | 147

https://t.me/wagnernew/15309
Check this crazy get up. It’s back to the middle ages, only you don’t need a squire to polish it every day to keep it from rusting. I guess next will come the Holtzman body shield from Dune.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Apr 19 2024 18:10 utc | 149

RIP Russell Bentley.
We can take solace in the fact that the scoreboard ended up in his favor, as he most certainly killed multiple UAF and Nazi goons, and the final score was N-1, where N is some integer larger than 1.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 19 2024 18:32 utc | 151

… It takes at least 3 months to take a raw recruit with no military training and turn them into a basic grunt, …
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 19 2024 17:10 utc | 139
The Ukrainian front line is mostly a death camp masquerading as military strategy. Victims abducted and deported to death camps don’t need military training but in this case they might receive pretend training in order to maintain the illusion for ignorant or depraved foreigners. You will find this to be a proper description of what is taking place, all the way to the last Ukrainian.

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 19 2024 18:47 utc | 153

If we take Shoigu’s numbers they’re still under
Newbie | Apr 19 2024 16:22 utc | 135
In their official reports, MoD said multiple times the numbers are only for the front line. Strikes behind the front line are not part of the public numbers. I think they’re a large number in addition to wounded left on the field, without treatment. But you’ve seen that in less than a month since US demanded to lower the minimum age, the gov. approved and made it worse in the new law, you have to change your math to zombie math
Posted by: rk | Apr 19 2024 16:41 utc | 137
Thank you for reminding me of checking/updating my favorite data (the economist excess mortality, russian statistics are still honest and an average of 1.200 + excess has proven good enough an esimate)
I have now seen december and january… mindblowing, I had mentioned a monthly KIA for the RF of 3.000, december and january they are averaging double that.
Current estimate for RF KIA by end of january is a cumulative just shy of 80.000.
Now for the AFU I cannot estimate less than half a million and no more that 650.000.
I have seen no signs that february, march and april were any softer.
So if I had to eyeball KIA as of end of april I’d say RF KIA 100.000, AFU KIA 600.000 to 800.000 (center value 700.000)
If the 850.000 kia limit for AFU holds then
Optimistic view end of May it’s over
Center estimate view end of July its over
Conservator view end of September its over
It will be kept “under budget” 110 to 135 k RF KIA for the whole SMO, more than it started with but within what is recruited, trained, equiped and experienced in 6 months.
It’s interesting to note that May 2024 and October 2024 were dates also found in the AFU mutiny estimates.
the only thing that I can give with a very reasonable degree of certainty is that for the last 5 months RF has been paying twice as many dead as in previous months, it has reached in january levels not since Bahkmut and then not in sequential months.
The SMO has changed gears and there is probably no time for the AFU and NATO to do anything.

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 19 2024 18:59 utc | 155

@Arioch #134:

these guilting attempts would never end, will they?

Anonposter suggested in his comment #89 that “it would be better for Russia to stay in place or even move backwards.” Obviously, if Russia moved backwards, the people living in those territories would either end up in the Ukraine again (with all the sad consequences for those who cooperated with the Russian government in any way, including teachers, doctors, etc.) or would have to leave for Russia, abandoning their homes and their native cities where they, their parents and grandparents lived. It’s strange that you don’t think such a scenario would constitute a betrayal of these people.

> Who is this Shuvalov ?
Easy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyotr_Andreyevich_Shuvalov
an influential Russian statesman and a counselor to Tsar Alexander II.
Some people have a knack to borrow historical names for their pennames. Just like Rezun/Suvorov did.

And before Pyotr Andreyevich Shuvalov (1827–1889), there was another influential Russian statesman, Pyotr Ivanovich Shuvalov (1711–1762), so clearly multiple Pyotr Shuvalovs can exist, including this Colonel Pyotr Ilyich Shuvalov.
That said, I searched for more information on him and couldn’t find anything at all, which is very fishy, so maybe you’re right, he might be a fake (I discovered him via a repost from one of Russian war correspondents, so I assumed he was legit). I will refrain from reposting anything from him in the future until I get an independent confirmation that he does exist. Thank you for calling my attention to this.

Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 19:06 utc | 157

What is a breaking point for a nation?
What is a breaking point of Ukraine.

Posted by: vargas | Apr 19 2024 19:21 utc | 159
When its financial backers decide to cut their losses. It’s a sad thing to have to say, but coffins don’t show up on balance sheets.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 19 2024 19:35 utc | 159

Eighthman@142…..watch the LOC, dossey doe forward, dossey doe backwards, circle cites….way too funny, cluster munitions and FPV drones rule the front, ain’t nobody circling no one any time soon.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 19 2024 19:51 utc | 161

William Gruff@153…..Russel had a tendency to shoot from the lip…. no shortage of well wishers from both sides looking to settle up….
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 19 2024 19:56 utc | 163

Aha! The leprechaun is here! Perhaps he can point us to the end of the rainbow where we can find Ukraine’s gold reserves…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 19 2024 20:05 utc | 165

‘Napoleon’ is right. Russia is stuck in an endless war, burning its financial and human resources.

Posted by: Kara | Apr 19 2024 20:44 utc | 167

I think that even a threat of nuclear annihilation would not stop Ukraine.
Posted by: vargas | Apr 19 2024 19:21 utc | 159
It’s a matter of dead comrades, dead sons, husbands, fathers…
enough is enough

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 19 2024 20:58 utc | 169

OR does S stand for Special?
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Apr 19 2024 21:02 utc | 171
superman, it stands for Kal-El… might as well use the full name 😉

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 19 2024 21:04 utc | 171

@Arioch
waynorinorway #128:

People should read it, especially the conclusion.

Arioch #145:

And why do the meme forcers suggest to only read the ocnclusion, skipping the body?

So right off the bat you start with a distortion. waynorinorway’s “read it, especially the conclusion” magically turns into “only read the ocnclusion, skipping the body”.
The rest of your comment is made up of similar distortions.
Arioch #145:

> The initial SMO plan is actually quite familiar, as it copied Operation Danube, the 1968 Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia.
> Operation Danube was carried out by a powerful group of Warsaw Pact forces that vastly outnumbered the Czechoslovak army, while the SMO was conducted in a country much larger than Czechoslovakia, using a limited contingent of about 185,000 troops
So this superb propht starts his preaching with easily recognizing the “quite familiar” plan based upon REVERSED force correllation.

You made Pukhov’s text look silly by skipping the text in-between. Here’s the full quote:

The initial SMO plan is actually quite familiar, as it copied Operation Danube, the 1968 Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia. Analogously, the SMO envisaged the capture of Kiev’s airport, the deployment of paratroopers there to seal off the Ukrainian capital, and rapid advances of numerous armored and mechanized units to surround major cities, which would then be quickly pacified by light units, special forces, and intelligence services.
But Operation Danube and the February 2022 campaign differ not only in the strong resistance that the Ukrainian political leadership and armed forces put up. Operation Danube was carried out by a powerful group of Warsaw Pact forces that vastly outnumbered the Czechoslovak army, while the SMO was conducted in a country much larger than Czechoslovakia, using a limited contingent of about 185,000 troops (although this included most of the Russian Ground and Airborne Forces), or about 140 battalion tactical groups (BTG). Even including the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Militias (about 110,000 more personnel), this force was still outnumbered by the Ukrainians, already partially mobilized.

In the first paragraph Pukhov explains how the initial SMO plan copied Operation Danube’s overall approach. In the second paragraph he explains that it couldn’t work because it didn’t copy Operation Danube’s scale. Hence the title of the section—“Failed ‘Operation Danube’ ”.
Arioch #145:

> the SMO envisaged the capture of Kiev’s airport
you wut m8t??? when Russia ever tried to capture Boryspil International Airport??? when???

Pukhov was clearly writing about Gostomel Airport, an international cargo airport also used by the Ukrainian Air Force—hence the need to take control of it.
(And just so you know, Kiev has two international passenger airports—Borispol International Airport and Kiev International Airport (Zhulyany), the latter actually located inside Kiev. Therefore, it would be better to use Kiev International Airport in this petty and unnecessary objection of yours.)
Arioch #145:

> In the north, … , the main assault groups reached Kiev
WOW! “reached Kiev” ??? When, where?

Again, Pukhov writes about it very clearly, you just pretend to not understand:

In the north, moving from Belarus through the Pripyat swamps and from Russia through the Sumy and Chernigov Regions of Ukraine, the main assault groups reached Kiev…

Clearly, Pukhov is writing about the suburbs of Kiev. In the west, Russian forces controlled Gostomel, Bucha and the western part of Irpen, in the east—approached Brovary.
I’m going to stop here. Your “comment” is a wall of infantilistic grimacing written in bad faith. You’re distorting every single thing Pukhov has written just so you can perform your shit-flinging act. Why his reasonable, neutral article caused such a psychotic outburst in you, I have no idea.

Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 21:17 utc | 173

Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said that every NATO member has military personnel in Ukraine.

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 19 2024 21:34 utc | 175

Been a couple days. Berdichi has still not fallen. It’s not like that’s the end-all, be-all. Just interesting how some here said that it had, while cherrypicking the frontrunners who called it too early. Even several Russian-leaning other mappers have said this was wrong. And we’ve had several subsequent reports that RFA has still not taken the whole village. This is not to say it never will fall..I bet Weeb and the Weeb-lover, just hope it will eventually fall…at which point, with time, the intellectual dishonesty to jump with what they want (versus best estimate) and to fail to correct themselves candidly, will be lost.
Other than that, looking at Chasiv Yar and Robotyne (or even the places N and S of Berdichi where there was progress several days ago), not much has changed. Doesn’t mean it never will. But hasn’t in last two days.
Any way you cut it, territorial advance has been glacial. Despite the Russians being 10 feet tall and the Ukrops attrited and miserably swimming rivers to escape…RFA took .01% territory in MAR. Yes, one ten thousandth. Guess the Ukdrops aren’t THAT attrited yet!

Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 19 2024 21:49 utc | 177

S@174….there’s some psychological math formula about grief and stages, maybe that was anger and stages, hmm come to think of it, it might be DeNile….it’s has stages too, many stages….freakin’ math….
Cheers M
…I found the piece analogous to what many had thought, surmised and guessed about the start of the SMO, personally I thought to light a force, just by the Ukie push back. Unless the Russians force some form of capitulation this will drag on for a while, and if the long range deep touch weapons appear on the NATO side, well, more Ukrainians will die, that’s a given, but bleed Russia will.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 19 2024 21:54 utc | 179

Yes, and that’s why you shouldn’t be calling people who disagree with you “trolls.”
Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 13:05 utc | 103
Anti-Russian agents provocateurs is the correct name of what you and others are.

Posted by: Naive | Apr 19 2024 22:03 utc | 181

Passerby @ 2024

Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur said that every NATO member has military personnel in Ukraine.

Of course they do, always had, but post Artemovsk, post BIG counter offensive FLOP, post Avdeevka, either Ukraine loses the war this year or they keep Russia from crossing the Dnieper and, it’s clear now from Lavrov’s statement, taking Kharkov and then regrouping and rebuilding for 2025.
Given the three huge loses above it’s clear the AFU needs NATO’s help to hold the Dnieper and Kharkov. But will NATO throw their men under the FABs, a couple hundred casualties a day? Hospitals in western Europe filling up with very ugly wounded? Mamma mia!
Yes they will, but they need to contain the casualties to something acceptable, so not until they can counter Russian air power and contest the air space. That is guaranteed to be coming soon otherwise all the NATO countries wouldn’t be sending in men. Catch 22.
The USA in trying to destabilize Russia achieved the mother of all blowbacks and now it really does have the existential threat it imagined it had. The SMO is not nearing an end it’s escalating to WW3.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Apr 19 2024 22:09 utc | 183

Any way you cut it, territorial advance has been glacial. Despite the Russians being 10 feet tall and the Ukrops attrited and miserably swimming rivers to escape…RFA took .01% territory in MAR. Yes, one ten thousandth. Guess the Ukdrops aren’t THAT attrited yet!
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 19 2024 21:49 utc | 178
Blablabla… You should try to hide your joy better. With some 1000 killed afu servicemen every day, yes, that is attrition. Working well. And in March it was not about territory, but electricity.

Posted by: Naive | Apr 19 2024 22:15 utc | 185

Unacceptable losses is exactly what Russian Armed Forces have been suffering under Kiev (in the words of Russian Colonel Pyotr Shuvalov, “…the regrouping was inevitable—during those days we already lost more modern (emphasis on the word ‘modern’) equipment than we have in service today.”). Therefore, the proper term for what happened in Spring 2022 is retreat.
Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 13:35 utc | 107
I was referring to Kherson and Kharkiv. But Kiev was also a withdrawal, for the simple fact that there was no Ukrainian pressure on Russia at the time. The Russian objective in Kiev was to a. Put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate, and b. To divert UAF forces so Russia could better position itself in the Donbas region.

Posted by: James M. | Apr 19 2024 22:20 utc | 187

Posted by: Simon | Apr 19 2024 22:11 utc | 185
I don’t read or listen to either. Forecasts are stupid. Armchair commentators – General or not – are stupid.
What count are facts and only facts. And to be patient. To be as patient as the Russians. For they know what they are doing while other people don’t.

Posted by: Naive | Apr 19 2024 22:24 utc | 189

The difference between Minsk and now should be obvious, even to you.
Another unnecessary insult from a person who is supposedly all about the “free flow of ideas.”
Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 13:08 utc | 104
You like definitions so here’s one for you: Idea: whatever is known or supposed about something. Comparing zebras and giraffes and calling them fish, isn’t an idea. Micron thinks all things are a constant. All agreements will be the same between Russia and the West, even though an invasion and all-out war has happened in the interim since Minsk.
The ineffectiveness of the Minsk agreements are (one reason) why Russia invaded Ukraine. The Minsk agreements are dead, but that doesn’t mean Russia is opposed to new agreements with the West. This is because they have changed the realities on the ground (with, yo know, their army). So any new agreements will have to reflect that. If those agreements are subsequently violated, then Russia will take action again, and the results and end-agreements then will be worse for the West.

Posted by: James M. | Apr 19 2024 22:33 utc | 191

Good news from Slovakia- eastern europeans are beginning to understand what NATO aims to do with them. In Hungary opposition to war and Ukrainian fascism comes from the Left. In Hungary it is the right asserting the national interest. Which will be next? Czechia- the victim of Munich, I hope.
“…Slovak parliamentary speaker Peter Pellegrini, who shares prime minister Robert Fico’s staunch opposition to continued arms supplies to Ukraine, won the second round of Slovakia’s presidential election. Pellegrini and Fico’s left-wing opposition to the Russo-Ukraine war proved to be a winning formula.
“In Peter Pellegrini Slovakia will finally have a president who does not support the pro-Western position and was not “installed by the Americans,” political observer Peter Marcek told Sputnik.
“There will be coordination between the government of the Slovak Republic [led by] Robert Fico and President Peter Pellegrini, because they have one program, one direction,” he remarked.
“According to Marcek, “both Fico and Pellegrini share the idea that no Anglo-Saxons should be able to dictate to us what we should do.”
“Washington pursued its own goals by pushing Pellegrini’s main rival, former foreign minister Ivan Korcok, for the presidency, argued the expert, in an effort “to subordinate our will exclusively to their hegemony.”…”
https://www.defenddemocracy.press/pellegrinis-win-in-slovakia-wont-allow-eu-to-drag-it-into-conflict-against-russia/

Posted by: bevin | Apr 19 2024 22:36 utc | 193

Yes, and that’s why you shouldn’t be calling people who disagree with you “trolls.”
Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 13:05 utc | 103
The point being is to have an actual original idea. A thought that is not pre-packaged from countless talking points from Western politicians. I’ve heard those arguments many times before, and they are easily dismantled. Micron doesn’t come up with any kind of new counterargument, and usually posts very occasionally, and often after a Russian setback.

Posted by: James M. | Apr 19 2024 22:40 utc | 195

@Arioch #165:

> so I assumed he was legit
…like that would mean much whether he served some kind of colonel, somewhere, anywhere.

I don’t know if it would mean much, but it would certainly mean something. It would certainly mean more than the strong opinions of those who have never been to the front.

…like nobody of legit colonels could be incompetent idiots or NATO fanboys.

Say what? Are you saying some Russian officers could be incompetent? Blasphemy!

What mattered was his, ahem, message. Which clearly is incoherent, shallow, and sharing lots of talking point with Western effort.

Just because someone’s opinion happens to coincide on certain points with the Western narrative does not mean that that someone is a “NATO fanboy.”
For example, it is my opinion that 2+2=4. It is also the Western narrative that 2+2=4. Such coincidence of opinion does not make me a “NATO fanboy.” I do not have to reflexively start claiming that 2+2=5 just to avoid having the same opinion as the West.

Posted by: S | Apr 19 2024 22:46 utc | 197

Been a couple days. Berdichi has still not fallen.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 19 2024 21:49 utc | 178
Thanks for giving us our daily update. Although, I have a better idea, instead of telling us every day that Berdichi hasn’t fallen, why don’t you wait until it actually does fall, and then tell us.
Maybe take a month or two, or even three afterwards before posting here, just to make sure Ukraine doesn’t recapture it.
Just trying to save you a lot of trouble in posting every day to update one minor village, which no one on MoA really cares about.

Posted by: James M. | Apr 19 2024 22:51 utc | 199