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April 14, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-109
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Interesting info about the new X-69 cruise missile, which can apparently be ground launched.
https://t.me/milinfolive/120410
Kh-69 cruise missile
Ukrainian media published data confirming the use of the X-69 cruise missile by the Russian Air Force. What can be said about the new Russian air-to-surface weapons?
The X-69 rocket developed by the State Design Bureau “Raduga” named after. AND I. Bereznyaka has a stated maximum launch range of 290 km. The missile can carry two types of warheads – penetrating or cassette, weighing 310 and 300 kg, respectively. This implies a wide range of stationary targets (including sea targets at their bases) with coordinates known before launch and/or with previously known information features of the target area. In the first case, the navigation and automatic control system (SNAU) uses GLONASS and GPS data. The second uses an optical-electronic system, the memory unit of which can contain “pictures” of the terrain surrounding the target, which allows, using correlation, to launch the missile to the target. In the event of powerful interference by the enemy, control switches to commands from a strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS).
It is most likely that after the first combat use there will be a pause. It is needed to create stockpiles of weapons with their subsequent massive use. This will lead to an “overload” of the enemy’s air defense and increase the effectiveness of the strike. KTRV factories are now operating 24/7, and debugging technological processes for the production of new weapons will increase the labor productivity of “rocket men.”
According to Ukrainian media reports, the X-69 launches were carried out from the latest Russian Su-57 fighter. Indeed, the rocket can be “thrown” from the UVKU-50 ejection device, designed specifically for the new “drying”. However, this is unlikely. It is logical to carry out the first combat launches from well-tested carriers. Fortunately, the Kh-69 is mounted on a standard AKU-58, which implies the possibility of using Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 as carriers.
In general, the topic of stealth requires a separate discussion. We have already talked about this, and we will return to it again in the near future.
Alexey Zakharov,
aviation expert
#expertVO
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 15 2024 18:27 utc | 201
Barlies, just a heads up:
Now that Ukraine’s Rada has recently passed the new mobilization bill, expect the US Congress to soon be passing their $61 billion aid bill to support the Ukrainian war. any day now.
The Uniparty has now cleared up the log jam of objections in the Republican controlled House.
Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Apr 15 2024 18:44 utc | 202
@ Passerby, §193:
Yes that´s exactly how the Mafioso state known as the USA runs: “Plato o plombo?”
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 15 2024 19:28 utc | 203
if no one has yet to post it – john helmer has an article up today… see below..
LENIN REVISED — RUSSIAN MILITARY POWER MEANS DE-ELECTRIFICATION AND UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER OF THE KIEV REGIME
Posted by: james | Apr 15 2024 19:32 utc | 204
But after May 21st, who’ll sign the ceasefire/ capitulation on behalf of Ukraine?
Posted by: smuks | Apr 15 2024 14:43 utc | 174
Admiral Dönitz?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_D%C3%B6nitz
https://youtu.be/aCCFXXshDVM
Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 15 2024 19:41 utc | 205
It is strange that Russia is not trying to continue with attacks on electrical network. The only area where Russia can escalate. One elegant move, almost nobody would die, and they would force Ukraine to capitulate.
Does Russia need electrical network in Ukraine?
Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 19:47 utc | 206
> they would force Ukraine to capitulate.
> Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 19:47 utc | 206
how is that even related?
what it there so unbearably bad for Biden or for Johnson or Scholz in lack of electricity in Ukraine?
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 15 2024 20:07 utc | 207
> The Uniparty has now cleared up the log jam of objections in the Republican controlled House.
> Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Apr 15 2024 18:44 utc | 202
if there ever was.
it could equally be just a carrot before the subhumans’ noses, a promise no one ever okanned to deliver, like dozens of other “eurpean future” promises give to Ukraine since before EuroMaida 10 years ago
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 15 2024 20:10 utc | 208
I have to wonder if part of the reason that Ukrainian defenses start to look much less elaborate further west of the current rear of the AFU’s positioning is because that Ukraine’s method of divvying up the graft made from aid sent by NATO nations is both elaborate, and somewhat set in stone. So in order to properly get contractors to commence work, funding would have to be diverted from something else, and someone important would see lighter envelopes handed to them because of that.
Even without funds going to build proper new defenses, we hear of AFU soldiers, or their surviving families, often having to fight just to get the money they are entitled to. Even among Ukraine’s supporters it is known as the most corrupt nation in Europe.
If the corrupt elites in Ukraine strongly suspect that the end, or at least their end, is near, human nature would dictate that they’d become even bolder in their endeavors to grow their off shore numbered accounts, and like the former President of Afghanistan, ensure their suitcases and trunks are filled with Western currencies, having sent word to get their living quarters in other nations prepped so as to accommodate their arrival.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 15 2024 20:13 utc | 209
> they would force Ukraine to capitulate.
> Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 19:47 utc | 206
how is that even related?
what it there so unbearably bad for Biden or for Johnson or Scholz in lack of electricity in Ukraine?
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 15 2024 20:07 utc | 207
That is very much related.
Ukrainians would leave Ukraine.
No services would work.
Front lines would collapse
A fast, clean victory for Russia without killing people.
Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 20:17 utc | 210
> having sent word to get their living quarters in other nations prepped so as to accommodate their arrival.
> Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 15 2024 20:13 utc | 209
And what a surprize, if you count top rank ukrainian officials that just recently moved abroad, starting with that general Zaluzhny now ‘serving’ at the embassy in London – there are handful, and the count is growing by week 🙂
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 15 2024 20:18 utc | 211
https://t.me/intelslava/57690
Looks like the Russians may have hit somone high up.
Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 15 2024 20:24 utc | 212
It is strange that Russia is not trying to continue with attacks on electrical network. The only area where Russia can escalate. One elegant move, almost nobody would die, and they would force Ukraine to capitulate.
Does Russia need electrical network in Ukraine?
Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 19:47 utc | 206
No, but it’s the game Putin loves so much: You hit me, I’ll hit you a little bit more. Come on, hit me again… I want to hit you a little bit more, I can, you’ll see…
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 15 2024 20:36 utc | 213
Ukraine, and I suppose most of the rest of the world who are following the war there, expect more attacks against their energy infrastructure. Imo, those attacks will be determined by two key factors. Number one being that the AFU has a limited supply of air defense systems and missiles, and number two being that Russia doesn’t have on hand at any one time near enough drones and missiles to attack every worthwhile target, and that it isn’t just the energy grid they want to attack, but also places like warehouses, transfer locations, and staging points.
And when the Russian Federation attacks a spot that has missile defenses, they want to overwhelm those, and destroy them. So it’s both a waiting and watching game, and a numbers game. Should a section of warehouses be both more or less undefended, and loaded with important products, then a good number of missiles and drones will be allocated for it. If they are only a quarter full, then it could be decided to leave them alone for now.
Russia is building up its inventory of missiles and drones, gathering intel on the value of targets, and watching closely to see if they can discern where the AFU is reassigning their mobile air defenses to.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 15 2024 20:37 utc | 214
> Ukrainians would leave Ukraine.
> Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 20:17 utc | 210
U wut m8t??? Sleeping Rosehip? EuroUkrainian can not escape unless vetted by Zelensky or unless managed to swim over Black Sea or Tissa river while borderguards shoot at them. All the borderlines were sealed in 2022 summer.
Just a week ago the world laughed at an Canadian idiot who visited Ukraine by his old Ukrainian passport, just to save on #40 Ukrainian visa – and now he whines and screams but no one let him out.
Two month ago some multi-kid famile went into Ukraine into their family van – they can not let out. They show kids to the guards – the guards shrug, we can’t be sure those are yours. They show papers – the guards shrug, we can’t be sure they are not faked.
A person tried to move to Moldova married a disabled women, the guards say “we saw that woman trafficking other males, we deny yout marriage and we care not of your papers”
14 year old boy was kidnapped from his village by the army and moved to Odessa. Half a road they decided they can not legally conscript him yet and threw him out the bus in the night, gladly he managed to eventually walk back to his village. But was he older, or would he been thrown out while still at the village and not some 20 miles away – no one would even raise an eyebrow, it would be normal European “direct democracy”.
Another village major complain to TV he can not bury deads because in the whole village there is not a single person left strong enough who could dig out a grave – no one bats an eye. It is just normal way of life after 10 years of European Democracy.
And so forth, you can find news like that every week.
Dude… If EuroUkrainians only could move away – 90% would had already fled, anywhere and naked.
The West ordered to keep the fight until the last Ukrainian – regardless age and gender – and Ze is doing that, and he will.
> No services would work.
That’s fine. You do not need services in trenches. People would be forced to leave ther shelters and go out the street, making it easier for Ze’s gangpressing squads to spot them.
> Front lines would collapse
They would, but it is not related to power grid. You do not have power plants in the trenches anyway.
————–
Biden and BoJo do not give a flying eff if EuroUkraine has power grid or not.
Ze would always have a diesel generator for his light and warm palace, and he doe not give a flying eff if anyone but him does.
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 15 2024 20:41 utc | 215
> Front lines would collapse
They would, but it is not related to power grid. You do not have power plants in the trenches anyway.
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 15 2024 20:41 utc | 215
No power no drones, no drones… front lines kaput!
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 15 2024 21:00 utc | 216
Luhansk attack aircraft on motorcycles close up. Previously, the daring rush of assault groups on motorcycles made it possible to take the garrison of a Ukrainian stronghold suppressed by artillery fire by surprise and successfully occupy it.
https://t.me/milinfolive/120420
The Losers (1970) Trailer
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Apr 15 2024 21:04 utc | 217
Newbie | Apr 15 2024 15:39 utc | 185
Sure, cya there later in the day (my day … just woke up).
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 15 2024 21:22 utc | 218
Luhansk attack aircraft on motorcycles close up. Previously, the daring rush of assault groups on motorcycles made it possible to take the garrison of a Ukrainian stronghold suppressed by artillery fire by surprise and successfully occupy it.
https://t.me/milinfolive/120420
The Losers (1970) Trailer
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Apr 15 2024 21:04 utc | 217
It can be improved, I had thought about that as a modern version of the egyptian light chariot when reading about them and considering the difficulties of advance in ukraine, driver and “bowman”
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 15 2024 21:37 utc | 219
😤😤
Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 15:30 utc | 183
Ossi. Pleeeease don’t encourage the use of emoticons! Soon we’ll have the place full of colourful little icons, rows and rows of them by infantile spammers who don’t know how to use words properly, like toddlers. And I’ll have to squint at the screen to decode what they mean.
You know when I first came here there was not an emoticon in sight. For 2 years I actually thought the forum’s code didn’t allow them (I didn’t even try one). I thought — What a mature place, not like Twitter. I don’t personally hate them. I sometimes use them in jocular places. But lately I notice more use here. Oh no … it’s the beginning of the end!
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 15 2024 21:50 utc | 220
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 15 2024 14:52 utc | 175
You are certainly correct James.
Also I think our poster Jake has been infected with with he SB virus. Take a look at the diatribe in his post @168 of this thread, but I advise not wasting too much time.
Regards-
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Apr 15 2024 22:01 utc | 221
silence…..I wonder what they are thinking now?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 15 2024 17:56 utc | 197
I respectfully suggest they might not even be objectively aware of NATOs demise! Most MSM normies only know the nonsense that Stoltenberg and Biden spout — ie, that NATO is getting stronger, protecting Europe from aggressor Putin, helping Ukraine “win the war”.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 15 2024 22:03 utc | 222
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2024 15:20 utc | 182
Yes, but a lot of Ukrainian heavy armor was there. And we still don’t know the complete force structure and numbers involved at Berdychi. Was it 100 Russian troops against 10,000 Ukrainians with Abrams? Well, no wonder they were “held up.” If it was the opposite, then we’d have to wonder.
The disparity is, I am sure, not that great, but I would hazard a guess that the Ukrainians did outnumber the Russians in Berdychi, ever so slightly.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 15 2024 22:14 utc | 223
Anyone know who these clowns are?
https://lansinginstitute.org/2024/04/15/russia-to-further-encourage-iran-israel-conflict/
Just read some of that warmed over dogshit they put out as analysis. It’s fiction. Like if Nikki Haley, John Bolton, Adam Schiff and Tom Cotton quotes were the entire basis for the “generative speech” model and one of their interns used ChatGPT to write it.
I’d never heard of the “Lansing Institute” in my life and their tweets average 0-2 “likes.”
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2024 22:23 utc | 224
Now that Ukraine’s Rada has recently passed the new mobilization bill, expect the US Congress to soon be passing their $61 billion aid bill to support the Ukrainian war. any day now.
The Uniparty has now cleared up the log jam of objections in the Republican controlled House.
Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Apr 15 2024 18:44 utc | 202
We’ll see. If Speaker Johnson does put it to a vote, he will lose his speakership. That’s what’s at stake here.
Even if it does pass, it will take at least two months for the aid to reach Ukraine. Even when it does reach Ukraine, it will be too late to have any impact.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 15 2024 22:26 utc | 225
You are certainly correct James.
Also I think our poster Jake has been infected with with he SB virus. Take a look at the diatribe in his post @168 of this thread, but I advise not wasting too much time.
Regards-
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Apr 15 2024 22:01 utc | 221
Lol. And there it is again — your arogant certainty that you’re right about something/someone you don’t actually “know” personally. You just THINK you do. Lol. That’s YOUR virus.
And to call it a diatribe is astoundingly telling that you aren’t open to learning about the nature of your own mind and the constructs of delusions it might hold.
But I’m sure you feel a little better now to have slapped the back of some other moron who considers me an antagonist to your conspiracy theories. I truly thought you were a bit smarter than that. But that was clearly my own self-delusion.
And as an afterthought on this topic, when poster @vargas first appeared, @PETER AU1 and I had some brief discussions about him. Peter proposed that he too, like sb, was a 3LA plant. I disagreed and said I thought he was just an ignorant “boy”, completely self unaware and uninformed. In my first and only post to him, I told him to go back into the 2022 MoA archives, read his way forwards, and only then come back to join the conversation. And for good measure, just to see what he would do, I also told him to fuck off. But he has ignored my kindly advice and persists in his mindnumbing stupidity day in day out! He clearly has no motives or agendas or MSM narratives. Just unadulterated low IQ and a mind which thinks that every thought bubble is some perceptive truth.
Now I don’t know if you’ve been reading him, but the continuing evidence shows that he is dumber than batshit. There is nothing remotely tricky about him. Every post he makes is ruthlessly attacked as nonsense. Some people engage with him … trying to educate him. Next time you notice this, why not inform them he is MI6 and to “not feed the spy trolls”. Laughing at you.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 15 2024 22:49 utc | 226
Anyone know who these clowns are?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2024 22:23 utc | 224
New think tank established in 2019 by that mighty intellect Armand Chouet, armed with his awesome master’s degree from the esteemed Delaware State university.
Their only prominent members are a former ambassador, Armburster, a professor of Russian literature (not political science or international relations) Fredrick White, and a former spook in John Sipher. Sipher is a fellow with the Atlantic Council as well.
The rest I don’t know about. The only one that’s been published with any frequency is White, and all his publications are in Russian literature and film. Not worth your time, I suspect.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 15 2024 23:19 utc | 227
Just saw the video of Russians attacking with a team on motor bikes.
Omg, funny! But what amazes me the most is how the 21stC warefare has just reverted to light horse tactics!
Imagine suggesting such an idea in the Pentagon! You’d be escorted out of the room in a straight jacket. But the Russians employed this brilliant idea. Who tf came up with it? Which commander said “Hell yeah. Let’s give it a go”.
Now, imagine how this might develop … a whole company/brigade on bikes, supported by armour and artilery, darting and weaving at 80kph to their goal. Or APCs could offload 10 running bikes instead of 10 infantry. Or maybe sidecars with driver AND gunner. Hello Wehrmacht 1939!
Just incredible how warefare has turned on its head in 2 years.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 15 2024 23:30 utc | 228
Fire reported at Scranton, Pennsylvania 155 mm shell munitions factory:
Apparently not so bad:
https://theatlasnews.co/brief/2024/04/15/scranton-army-ammunition-plant-possibly-on-fire-scranton-pa/
Posted by: mjh | Apr 15 2024 23:36 utc | 229
It was suggested to go read the “diatribe” by JB re Barrel Brown | Apr 15 2024 22:01 utc | 221
People (everywhere) confuse facts with beliefs, with reasonable deductions, with faulty logic, with unfounded speculation, with biased perceptions, with fantasy imaginings, with crazy delusions. That was my whole point about CT research and for including mention of Simplicius’ article … which you completely passed over in your rush back to your pet theory about 3LAs.
and
I don’t care if you’re right or wrong, if I’m right or wrong. I’m more concerned that you and others peddle conjecture as fact.
and
[general indications about Logical Fallacies, the Dunning-Kruger effect and Cognitive dissonance etc]
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 15 2024 13:54 utc | 168
I quite liked the Vedic translation about known knowns too …. if I may add-
Speculation: the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.
Hypothesis: a supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation (or discussion.)
Never engage with people who assert things that are not actually facts,
and pull up completely irrelevant ones, and massively over-simplify things,
most especially when it comes to [Insert Passionate Subject].
Such are the vagaries of online discussion forums – it is inescapable. Helps to be realistic and moderate one’s expectations accordingly.
LD
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Apr 16 2024 0:21 utc | 230
Lavrov’s Dog | Apr 16 2024 0:21 utc | 230
Ha. The Vedic teachings were a veiled paraphrase from the original which actually uses the word “truth” in place of knowledge and knowing. But that sounds like dogmatic spiritual preaching so I hedged into common, secular parlance of knowing and knowledge, which actually copies perfectly well across into all non-religious philosophical perspectives because it is dealing with the underlying nature of thinking per se (which is universal) and NOT the substance of the thoughts (which is individual). Comprendez? I might elaborate in [General Discussion].
PS. Lol, Fyi, I have ABSOLUTELY NO EXPECTATIONS on social media cos I get that most people do not think as deeply or carefully about the words they use. But as a non-fiction writer and editor, it drives me nuts, (a) when people attach to their deluded beliefs and (b) when they dig-in when it is pointed out the semantic/ego mechanics they are trapped in.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 16 2024 1:16 utc | 231
Political humiliation foor the globe to see, after egghead Chancellor Scholz is greeted on historic visit to China by… Deputy Mayor of Chongqing municipality.
There are levels to diplomacy – some leaders get the red carpet, others get the small town mayor.
Posted by: Hankster | Apr 16 2024 2:03 utc | 232
Anyone know who these clowns are? …
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2024 22:23 utc | 224
It’s yet another of Empire’s propaganda meth labs but they make no bones about what what they’re up to, rather than merely moonlighting as infowar gimps.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 16 2024 5:59 utc | 233
Zaporozhye Front. Rabotino
Some time ago, we managed to gather drones for the artillerymen of the 42nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division, who are bravely fighting in the face of many FPV drones and enemy counter-battery warfare. War gods without modern eyes are no business (ed. are blind).
What was achieved thanks to the help of dear readers is in the next post.
The people and the Army are united!
Posted by: anon | Apr 16 2024 6:23 utc | 234
Haven’t checked them out yet but this update on equipment to defend against Ukrainian drone boats contains links to naval TG channels for anyone willing to trouble themselves with what might actually be going on behind the scenery.
https://t.me/dva_majors/40119
Thermal imaging sights for ships in the Black Sea have been delivered!
Thanks to the help of Armenak Tozlyan, we managed to buy +5 more of the same thermal imaging sights (total – 20 sights) 10 brackets for heavy machine guns*
Thank you, Maga Shalnyak and PPSh Laboratory, for the discount, prompt production and fast delivery.
We purchased additional thermal imaging monoculars for the sailors at a discount:
▪️Iray Finder fh35r v2
▪️Iray Eye e6 pro v3
▪️Affo 19w
Thank you for your active help with collecting subscribers:
Two majors⭐️
Battle_🅉_Sailor ⚓️
Vestovoy 🇷🇺
Notes of midshipman Ptichkin
Belarusian security officer 🇧🇾
Shalnyak
Russian Demiurge
Yuri Baranchik
Angry sailor
Russian outpost
The naval power of the state
We wish the sailors good luck and hope that people’s help will help them fight MBECs at sea more effectively.
And #Majoromobile went further to the Front.
—
* 10 brackets are still on the way. As soon as we receive it, we will deliver it promptly.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 16 2024 6:37 utc | 235
📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report #Summary for the Morning of 16 April 2024; pub. 06:59📍
🎯 The RFAF carried out attacks at night on enemy targets in #Starokonstantinov, #Khmelnitsky region, #Uman, #Cherkassy region, #Kherson, Novy Bug, #Nikolayev region, #Mirgorod, #Poltava region. At this point in time, the depletion of enemy air defences makes it possible to solve problems with fewer means of destruction.
🔹In the #Kherson direction, there are battles in the area of #Krynki. Yesterday it was reported about the activation of small enemy groups with the support of the AFU artillery. Drones are still a problem. The enemy uses a new tactics of using FPV in electronic warfare conditions. He try to use the drone as a projectile on the final attack trajectory, sending it to the target along a given trajectory without a control signal. Civilians were attacked by the AFU: one person was injured in #Radensk, in #Yubileynoye nine residential buildings were damaged.
🔹On the #Zaporozhye front, heavy fighting in #Rabotino. Everything is used on this piece of land, from assault groups and drones to tanks and rocket artillery. Fighting in the center of the village.
🔹The #Vremevka ledge is characterised by active actions of the RFAF in the area of #Staromayorskoye and #Urozhaynoye.
🔹In the #SouthDonetsk (#Ugledar) direction, there are battles for every house in #Novomikhaylovka. Our troops are also trying to cover the settlement from the south and north. The resumption of the active phase of fighting in #Georgiyevka in the direction of #Kurakhovo is reported. On the southern outskirts of #Krasnogorovka, our troops are expanding the control zone.
🔹West of #Avdeyevka, the RFAF ares developing success in #Semyonovka, but the village has not yet been liberated, the battle is in the central part of the development. Battles at #Netaylovo, #Umanskoye, #Berdychi, and #Novokalinovo.
🔹In #ChasovYar’s eastern outskirts, the RFAF continue to attack, increasing the pace. The plan of our troops is visible to come out from the flanks from #Bogdanovka and #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye) to the Vodokanal and to bind the enemy forces in the Microdistrict as much as possible.
🔹At #Belogorovka and #Terny, the fighting continues.
💥On the #DPR’s peaceful population, the enemy fired 45 rounds of ammunition, a man born in 1964 died in #Gorlovka as a result of a drone drop.
🎬In the #Avdeyevka direction, military personnel of the AFU surrender en masse to the Russian Army.
Posted by: Down South | Apr 16 2024 7:08 utc | 236
What’s all this ZNPS rubbish I’m reading about? Just got home from work so haven’t had a chance to find out.
Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 16 2024 7:09 utc | 237
Here’s the Fraudian’s crapola on it
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/16/ukraine-war-briefing-attacks-on-nuclear-plant-are-russian-false-flag-kyiv-tells-un-security-council
Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 16 2024 7:10 utc | 238
Our source in the OP said that the General Staff’s modeling of war scenarios in Ukraine showed that the optimal timing of combat operations is 3 years, but in a negative format it can last up to 5-7 years. The mobilization bill was necessary for a protracted war so that the TCC could attract reserves of up to three million men during this time.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22415
Our source reported that, according to the General Staff, the war will last 5-7 years, which is why there will be no demobilization.
There will be no law on the demobilization of the military, People’s Deputy Maryana Bezuglaya said in a comment to the Ukrainian media.
“I think there will be no law until martial law ends,” Bezuglaya answered when asked when a new law will be created.
She also predicted an intensification of the war.
“The continuation will only be larger, we will be destroyed in the events of the Third World War. Until the world is re-divided again,” the people’s deputy said.
Let us recall that the provision on the demobilization of the military after 36 months was excluded from the bill on mobilization adopted by the Rada. This caused an extremely controversial reaction both in society and among the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22463
Posted by: Down South | Apr 16 2024 7:12 utc | 239
India is avoiding all contact with Ukraine and ignoring calls, says the Ukrainian Parliament
https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1780132376246624328
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 16 2024 7:36 utc | 240
Our source in the OP said that the General Staff’s modeling of war scenarios in Ukraine showed that the optimal timing of combat operations is 3 years, but in a negative format it can last up to 5-7 years. The mobilization bill was necessary for a protracted war so that the TCC could attract reserves of up to three million men during this time.
Posted by: Down South | Apr 16 2024 7:12 utc | 239
Sounds about right. By negative format I’m guessing the Ukrainians mean they won’t regain any lost territory within the three years. I also don’t think mobilization will go as they hope or plan.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 16 2024 7:42 utc | 241
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 15 2024 23:30 utc | 228
Now, imagine how this might develop … a whole company/brigade on bikes, supported by armour and artilery, darting and weaving at 80kph to their goal. Or APCs could offload 10 running bikes instead of 10 infantry. Or maybe sidecars with driver AND gunner. Hello Wehrmacht 1939!
Just incredible how warefare has turned on its head in 2 years.
Jake, it is well known that the Germans were using motor cycle infantry in their assault on USSR during Operation Barbarossa-so it is not a rediscovery of light cavalry tactics. Those tactics have been essentially unchanged since (at least) the times of Hannibal when North African Berber cavalry troops were used. All that has really changed is the type of mobility -ie. horse and lance/sword replaced by motorcycle and side-car mounted LMG’s’ and RPG’s. But, of course the Mongols combined these general ideas with their formidable mounted archers, supplemented when required by cataphracts and rudimentary artillery. Such formations would be called BTG’s or something similar today.
All this is factual Jake-you can even find references in Wikipedia. The more truth changes the more it changes complexion, but does not stay the same. Do your Vedic Gurus have anything to say on this observation. If you feel like answering this, please refrain from Shadow banned type word spew-be concise.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Apr 16 2024 7:46 utc | 242
This 61 billion form USA is just going to prolong the war.
USA wants long wars with many dead people.
Posted by: vargas | Apr 16 2024 8:59 utc | 243
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 15 2024 14:27 utc | 172
Posted by: ghiwen | Apr 15 2024 12:14 utc | 158
There are two parts to Dima’s “military summary channel”. The first is his map where he aggregates data from a variety of sources to come up with a map of the battlefield.
The second is his analysis which is mostly speculation………………….
sorry;
it seems that i was vague about the aim of the post
………..how can anyone take this character seriously?………
it is directed against the “character” Vargas
i don’t use the dima-source
Posted by: ghiwen | Apr 16 2024 9:26 utc | 244
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Apr 16 2024 7:46 utc | 242
Lol. You’re being a contrarian arse just the sake of it because you are butthurt.
Did you not notice the exclamation marks and jocular tone throughout my post? No, you took it soooo seriously as to deliver a history lesson instead of simply enjoying THE POINT of my post which was highlighting Russian innovation on the Donbass LOC 2024. You sure know how to miss the point of what you read. You’re a master of misconstruence and misrepresentation. No wonder you invent conspiracy theories for things you don’t understand and see animal patterns in the clouds.
Then you contradict and split hairs about what I did not say, aka strawmanning. So no cookie for you today.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 16 2024 10:02 utc | 245
As of last evening (Dima), Berdichi had not yet fallen. “Any day now” (again).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z81SIffUMtM
FWIW, I agree that it looks imperiled, given the extensions north and south of it. But still funny how long it has held. And how the Russobots (Weeb, Kalibrated, Duran) have repeatedly claimed it was taken when it wasn’t.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 10:19 utc | 246
Regarding relative drone superiority on the front lines.
https://t.me/opennewss/33564
Forwarded from ZHIVOV Z🇷🇺
On drones and electronic warfare.
A couple of days ago guys from the Zaporozhye direction wrote. They apparently have a place for rotation and rest about 20 kilometers from the front. They recently had an FPV raid. My interlocutor wonders: why the hell are they flying so far away, and are they being launched by some saboteurs from the rear?
A little to the right of them there is also a familiar brigade. The guys are also desperately looking for electronic warfare. At least some. 60-70 drones fly to the brigade per day (PER DAY!!!). Unfortunately, the problem with the enemy’s superiority in low air has not been completely solved, just like the problem with the lack of electronic warfare systems.
Let me remind you that the enemy received at least 1 million drones this year. This is 2,700 drones to the front per day. Using simple calculations, we can estimate that even if 1 out of 10 drones reaches the target, that’s 270 hits per day, or about 100 thousand per year.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 16 2024 10:38 utc | 247
These look interesting for RF Naval news:
Angry Sailor: https://t.me/s/evilsailor
Notes of midshipman Ptichkin: https://t.me/s/rusfleet
The naval power of the state: https://t.me/s/SeaPower
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 16 2024 10:54 utc | 248
The Ukrainian head of state Zelensky asks why the West does not protect Ukraine like Israel?
Following the West’s intervention to protect Israel, Ukrainian President Zelenskyi has called for the same help for his country.
Posted by: Wordle | Apr 16 2024 11:23 utc | 249
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 16 2024 10:02 utc | 245
Thank you for the concise reply and refraining from hitting the “Shadow Banned” mode.
Butthurt? Nope, just a bit intrigued as to why you actually bothered to write that
Contrary? No way bud, I agree entirely with your observations. All I was attempting to do was broaden the context and add a few historically relevant facts regarding this general class of mobile warfare. The RF would be well aware of the potential of such mobile tactics in the right circumstances-as would the UAF- so this innovation should come as no great surprise. The Western MSM made a great fuss when ISIS (forget which flavour) used masses of second-hand pick-up trucks with infantry and machine guns in Iraq and Syria a few years ago. The same general idea.
I’m sure that others here (eg. Milites) could elaborate on this with a great deal more credibility than either you or me, but I’m not encouraging him to do so since it is not pertinent in any way to the general theme of this thread- at least at the present time.
I don’t reckon I misconstrued you at all, and I don’t see any relevance to your straw-manning comment.
And just to set your mind(s) at rest, I have not abandoned our past exchanges about trolls and alphabet soup. I’ll get back to that, but I do have a life outside MoA.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Apr 16 2024 11:42 utc | 250
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtASQb3oStg
DPA from few hours ago.
1. Presence of Ukrops at western (yes western) edge of Ivaniske forest invalidates huge forest claim by Russophiles.
[Basically, there is a long tendency of advocates to confound small infantry raids with “control” of territory. This has been happening for months, but the yuckyucks don’t learn. Or worse, they have financial incentives to claim territory gains (which gets clicks) and be first in the news cycle (which gets clicks)…so they don’t check too hard, don’t wait for geolocation (and strong/good geolocation, flag videos by soldiers in the open).]
2. Good RFA advance along tree/rail line towards Novobahmutivka. This is north of Berdichi (yes it still is not 100% occupied, sorry Weeble) and puts pressure on it/Seminovka. DPA posits that if Novob falls (not entered yet, but menaced) that this puts on pressure on the whole “first line of defense” west of Avdiivka (remember Berdichi etc. are really the zeroth line).
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 11:47 utc | 251
Correction to 1 (that should be eastern, yes eastern). I is lysdexic. 🙁
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 11:48 utc | 252
Grifters gonna grift. Latest Dima report:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ6nia-Pd2E
Caption says Ukrops lost several top leaders and description says Budanov and another general. However, meat of the video says “no proof” and it is just speculation based on air strikes on the towns themselves where those two were located! (I.e. everyone in those towns are dead? Even in bunkers? Totally weak evidence and speculation. And FWIW, we even have had several past false reports of Budanov dead. But…clickbaiters gonna clickbait.
Other than that, says again about the good progress north along rail/tree line towards Novab. and Ochertne (same news as previous). And regarding Berdichi, “any day now”. (Still!)
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 12:22 utc | 253
And regarding Berdichi, “any day now”. (Still!)
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 12:22 utc | 253
It doesn’t really matter now if or when Berdichi falls as the Russians are in a position to encircle it or otherwise isolate it. Either the Ukrainians will fall back, or find themselves cut off. I’ve asked before, and you haven’t responded, as to the force structure in Berdichi. Why haven’t the Russians taken it, while making progress elsewhere along that line?
Posted by: James M. | Apr 16 2024 12:33 utc | 254
Anonymous – give it a rest …even the ISW admits Berdichi is lost. In the year 2030, after Urkraine is no longer a country but a province of Russia, you’ll still be posting here claiming that because some ex-Azov type resides in his Mom’s basement in Berdichi, the Russians still haven’t taken it.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 16 2024 12:50 utc | 255
James M.:
Total movement on the front is also very slow.
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1774999571241791790/photo/1
.02% during FEB (yes the magic month Avdiivka fell) and .01% the month after (yes, after the “breakhthrough”). So, even if you say that particular village is irrelevant, overall progress is glacial.
It’s not that that village is so special. But how emblematic it is of cheerleaders, overestimating RFA advance…and underestimating UFA resistance. And underestimating the difficulty in EITHER side making large advances. Team stalemate…
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 12:53 utc | 256
The problem watching daily updates is – you get very specific minutiae which might not give the picture. And it doesn’t really work if timeframe for significant moves is weeks or even months.
Anyway, Dima:
-RU has firm foothold in SE part of Krasnogorovka after a couple of AFU counter-attack attempts
-RU improve position north of Novomikhalovka
-AFU tried counter-attack from the west toward Pervomaiske, albeit Dima says the presented video of the supposed attack was old, before Pervomaiske was resolved for RU side
-RU improve in the forest slice between rail road tracks SE of Ocheretyne – the road is clear to Novobakhmutovka to the west
-Seems AFU lost control of Kanal, the East part of Chasov Yar
Dima mentions strikes, some reports which say could have killed general Tarnavsky and Budanov. However he notes that we had similar reports about Zaluzhny and Budanov in 2023, which turned out to be false.
It is probable that some kind of strike happened, and some officers were hit even if they aren’t Tarnavsky or Budanov.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 16 2024 12:57 utc | 257
The situation in the ME is more important anyway than whether Russia takes some village today or later in May. All the West’s missiles and patriots will need to be husbanded carefully in order to protect US military bases in Syria, Jordan, etc. You can forget about any help coming in terms of air defense. All of Ukraine is now a sitting duck.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 16 2024 13:04 utc | 258
Grifters gonna grift. Latest Dima report: …. And regarding Berdichi, “any day now”. (Still!)
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 12:22 utc | 253
If you mistrust Dima’s channel so much why do you keep watching it and bitching about it every day? Did Dima shoot your dog or did you catch him with your girlfriend?
You’ve gotta understand war is dynamic. There is no accounting for what the enemy does. If they decide to keep counter attacking and reinforcing losing positions like krynki and Berdichi there is nothing Dima can do about it. He’s not actually on the ground witnessing events for himself, he’s somewhere in Belarus pouring over telegram posts.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 16 2024 13:08 utc | 259
$61 billion aid bill to support the Ukrainian war.
You can’t win this war with your money printing machine. NATO has already lost. Attempts to send more money is a vain attempt to save face.
Round of applause for the fucking idjits who make up the Western strategic braintrust. They haven’t gotten their heads wrapped around the ‘You Lose’ just yet. After all, they’ve failed upwards their entire lives. Why should this be different?
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 16 2024 13:12 utc | 260
Anonymous is a classic example of a person whose ideology clouds their reason. Once you start with support of a specific side, analysis suffers as you become a cheerleader. Yes yes we get it you concentrate on territory as it’s the only metric you can cling to that doesn’t show Ukraine having its ass turned inside out as its erstwhile allies all hide behind paperwork. I imagine your optimism will start to wane in the coming weeks, unless you’re Maerican and enjoy watching people die in vain for the imbecilic schemes of your masters.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 16 2024 13:18 utc | 261
In other words, anonymous, you seem to be trying very hard to convince yourself up is down. Good luck!
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 16 2024 13:19 utc | 262
This video isn’t ideal because the pilot seems be manually swerving away from the target at the last moment, giving the intuitive impression of tracking failure, but if it only doubles the hit probability it’ll be more than worth it and this is a logical direction of development. Short range EW could be greatly nullified by this kind of autopilot feature.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BMiTS8hhZc
Tests of the Russian Ovod-S FPV drone with a target homing system were published by the developer; we have previously shown this drone. The drone is equipped with an on-board homing system “Square”. The homing system is implemented through two types of tracking: algorithmic, which uses technical vision, and neural network, for recognizing objects by the drone. Having captured a target, the drone continues to track it and engage it, regardless of whether it is a static or dynamic target. The cost of early versions of the Gadfly drone, without a homing system, is about 40 thousand rubles or 480 dollars.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 16 2024 13:22 utc | 263
Attempts to send more money is a vain attempt to save face.
One last big payday before the rats desert the sinking ship.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Apr 16 2024 13:22 utc | 264
All the West’s missiles and patriots will need to be husbanded carefully in order to protect US military bases in Syria, Jordan, etc. You can forget about any help coming in terms of air defense.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 16 2024 13:04 utc | 258
Who is going to attack US? No one. The little slingshots thrown at one base or another are not destroyed using patriots anyway. And Iran is not going to strike them even if Israel strikes Iran again.
There’s no need for patriots in Ukr, it was to destroy current stocks of nato slaves and simple marketing, after German, French and British toys were turned into a joke. Now (forced) customers also believe patriots shot down all hypersonics in Ukr. They will only send attack weapons to Ukr, the rest will be simulated. Ukr is a virtual state now, purely terrorist, no defense needed. Exactly why they started attacks since Maidan, there was no going back plan, they were going to kill everyone and get killed in the process
Posted by: rk | Apr 16 2024 13:24 utc | 265
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 16 2024 12:57 utc | 257
Thank you unimperator for the Dima summary and all of your insightful posts.
Posted by: migueljose | Apr 16 2024 13:33 utc | 266
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 16 2024 12:57 utc | 257
1. Failure to look at big picture. I did mention the OVERALL rate of advance. .01% in MAR24. Tiny, tiny. It’s not like RFA took 10% of the country (1000 times more!) and I’m ignoring it because they didn’t take on Asterix-like village.
https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/asterix/images/c/cd/Map_of_Gaul.png/revision/latest?cb=20160417052814
2. “It is probable that some kind of strike happened, and some officers were hit even if they aren’t Tarnavsky or Budanov.”
Haha. And this is different from any random day of the war, how?
Kinda reminds me of how one of these cholos (think it was Dima, might have been Weeb) predicted Prigozhin was actually doing a triple secret loop to Belograd to go after Kharkiv. When he was wrong, he said “oh, no biggie…march on Moscow was practically same thing!” Maybe something to take into account with his latest Kharkiv speculations…
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 13:40 utc | 267
@265
The US already had to move patriots to Al-Tanf and the Syrian bases due to threat of ballistic missiles. It’s an election year and the pudding for brains shitbird in charge cannot afford even a few deaths of US military service members.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 16 2024 13:58 utc | 268
Kinda reminds me of how one of these cholos (think it was Dima, might have been Weeb) predicted Prigozhin was actually doing a triple secret loop to Belograd to go after Kharkiv. When he was wrong, he said “oh, no biggie…march on Moscow was practically same thing!” Maybe something to take into account with his latest Kharkiv speculations…
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 13:40 utc | 267
If you’re looking for certainty find another hobby instead of following an active war.
Prigozhin is dead, Wagner is still very active in Africa. Prigozhin was a beard … he never really commanded the Wagner group, the GRU does. I knew that was the case all along because I did a little research into what the Wagner group actually was instead of paying attention to gossip.
Wagner was created by the GRU to allow Russia to act outside of Russia’s borders without a vote in the Duma because the Russian constitution does not allow the Russian military to act outside Russia’s borders without a declaration of war or special permission of the Duma.
It was obvious that Prigozhin had no chance of success in his thunder run to Moscow so to anyone else who knew the real ownership of Wagner it was either a planned deception or Prigozhin had begun to believe his own bullshit.
As I recall at the time this happened most of the world thought Wagner was Prigozhin’s private army and thought Wagner was in fact a stronger force than the Russian army … it wasn’t and Dima was right but he put his money on deception rather than inflated ego. His mistake was he thought Prigozhin was smarter than he really was.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 16 2024 14:07 utc | 269
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 13:40 utc | 267
Let’s keep it simple.
Dima is a compiler of videos and news daily scavenged from various Russian and Ukrainian TG channels and Twitter and other sources. That part is very good, and the localization of events on the map, to judge for yourself. Take it for what it is.
The speculation is what it is, educated guesses based on sources and logic. As long as you justify or provide rationality for what you claim, speculation is ok. Much better than baseless speculation.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 16 2024 14:16 utc | 270
It’s not certainty. It’s the failure to address his own mistake and the dishonest rationale that said “same thing”. It’s one reason why I find DPA, Willy, and Theti more interesting. They are honest and admit mistakes. Weeb, Kalibrated, Dima, Suriyak, Duran…not so much.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 14:18 utc | 271
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 16 2024 13:08 utc | 259
##############
Hate watching. Similar to when American right-wingers watch CNN/read the NYT, or Leftists watch Fox News to stimulate emotions like outrage.
That, IMO, is what happens when people become addicted to drama. They seek it out even if it is harmful to their souls.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 16 2024 14:27 utc | 272
Don’t know why so much airtime is being given to a micro-analysis of Dima’s output.
I much prefer this aggregator of unconfirmed Telegram sources (/s): https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12509263@egNews
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (16 April 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Group of Forces’ units improved the situation along the front line and repelled two counter-attacks launched by the AFU 21st Mechanised Brigade’s assault groups close to Terny (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 30 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made 155-mm M198 howitzer, and one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer. In addition, one AFU field ammunition depot was destroyed.
In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the 46th Airmobile, 92nd Air Assault, 28th, 93rd Mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Andreyevka, Krasnogorovka, Kurdyumovka, and Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Up to 630 Ukrainian troops, one armoured fighting vehicle, and four motor vehicles were neutralised.
In counterbattery warfare, the U.S.-made 155-mm Paladin and Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery systems, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 gun, as well as one Nota electronic warfare station were annihilated.
In Avdeyevka direction, the units of the Tsentr Group of Forces have improved the tactical situation and repelled eight counter-attacks of the assault groups of the 25th Airborne, 68th, 71st jaeger, 23rd, 24th, 115th mechanised brigades of the AFU close to Novokalinovo, Semyonovka, Petrovskoye, Netaylovo, and Berdychi (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to more than 380 Ukrainian troops, one infantry fighting vehicle, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and three 122-mm D-30 howitzers.
In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Group of Forces improved the situation along the front line and hit manpower and hardware of the 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade of the AFU, 108th and 128th territorial defence brigades close to Lugovskoye (Zaporozhye region), Ugledar, Urozhaynoye, and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 80 Ukrainian troops, two motor vehicles, one Grad MLRS, one Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, and one Bukovel-AD electronic warfare station.
In Kherson direction, the units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the 117th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU and 35th Marine Brigade near Orekhov (Zaporozhye region) and Ivanovka (Kherson region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 40 Ukrainian troops, five motor vehicles, and one U.S.-made M777 howitzer.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU ammunition and fuel depots, UAV production and storage facilities, as well as clusters of enemy manpower and military hardware in 133 areas during the day.
Air defence systems have shot down 155 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, six UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles, two U.S.-made HARM anti-radiation missiles, four U.S.-made MALD decoy missiles, as well as two HIMARS and Uragan MLRS projectiles during the day.
In total, 583 airplanes and 270 helicopters, 21,292 unmanned aerial vehicles, 502 air defence missile systems, 15,793 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,267 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 8,928 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 21,063 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 16 2024 14:32 utc | 273
It’s the failure to address his own mistake and the dishonest rationale that said “same thing”. It’s one reason why I find DPA, Willy, and Theti more interesting. They are honest and admit mistakes. Weeb, Kalibrated, Dima, Suriyak, Duran…not so much.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 14:18 utc | 271
So what are you trying to achieve by posting about Dima’s fallibility every day? Do you want an apology from him, do you want us all to join you in 10 minutes hate of Dima every day or are you just going to bitch about him until the fighting stops? I tend to just not pay attention to sites I dislike but it appears I’m not nearly as sensitive as you are so I’m at a bit of a loss here.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 16 2024 14:34 utc | 274
The US already had to move patriots to Al-Tanf and the Syrian bases due to threat of ballistic missiles. It’s an election year and the pudding for brains shitbird in charge cannot afford even a few deaths of US military service members.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 16 2024 13:58 utc | 268
He might as well cover them with a paper bag. At least they could hide under it.
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 16 2024 14:38 utc | 275
The US already had to move patriots to Al-Tanf and the Syrian bases
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 16 2024 13:58 utc | 268
I see. Isn’t Al-Tanf where they also train terrorists for Ukr since the smo? Anyway, Zeli told us a few days ago there are at least 100 completely unused patriots all over the planet, which he wants badly. So there’s no problem with resources. He will only get one from Germany because he runs a kamikaze business, which will some day be replaced with a few bases like Al-Kiyvyy, cheap local workers with one leg and migrants ejected from the “garden”.
Posted by: rk | Apr 16 2024 14:43 utc | 276
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-could-have-ended-war-ukraine
The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine
An interesting article on the Istanbul talks in 2022.
The more that you study it the more you begin to think Russia went along with Istanbul talks knowing full well that Ukraine and its Western paymasters were not going to accept an agreement to end the conflict. To maintain support with China and parts of the Global South Russia had to be seen to go along with the talks. Indeed, by going along with them Russia legitimized its case with most of the Global South.
But, more importantly by accepting negotiations the West thought Russia was weak and thus they fell into the Russian trap which they can’t get out of without losing face at best and much worse.
If I’m right historians may well describe it as one of the brilliant pieces of statecraft of the modern era.
Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 16 2024 14:58 utc | 277
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 16 2024 14:07 utc | 269
The problem with this subject is that there doesn’t appear to be any good sources. Your account is similar to others I’ve read but it doesn’t explain things we can actually see, such as:
1) Prigozhin had enough command to order his obscene “rebellion” on the initiative of his inner circle that included Utkin. It doesn’t matter what research you did, or whether others were seduces by gossip, bland claims that GRU was in command cannot be correct. At a minimum there was a faction that Prigozhin could command.
2) I’ve lost count of the number of times since then of official proclamations that Wagnerites were all signing up with the MoD. Some absolutely have but a large number are still in limbo, at their own choice, after all this time. This is evidence of serious immiscibility between Wagnerites and the rank-and-file MoD command structure. Some have signed up as regular MoD formations but all of the rest seem to have sought an arrangement that satisfied a need to preserve a Wagner command culture. The choices made by Wagnerites in the aftermath of the “rebellion” suggest a much more complex picture than a simple GRU front, actually that direct GRU control of the remaining forces can only be minimal, count be almost nonexistent.
Separately, it is my own working assumption that the MoD had decided to disband and absorb Wagner before Bakhmut fell, Prigozhin wanted to retain control for his own advantage and that’s all the “rebellion” was about. There were only enough forces involved to create a temporarily scary impression. The report of large quantities cocaine being found on Prigozhin’s property was all too believable. I also think he assumed (or hoped) that there would be no bloodshed, it was certainly never to his advantage, but he’d have surely overlooked anything if he’d have won the day.
That’s as much of my impression as comes immediately to mind, at any rate, and the lack of real sources means that people often see what they want to see.
Prigozhin buried himself but many careerists had ignoble reasons to want Prigozhin out of the way and Russia’s enemies did nothing but complain about him when he was alive and then claim he was a traitor when dead, a line of propaganda for the truly hard-of-thinking.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 16 2024 15:05 utc | 278
It’s the failure to address his own mistake and the dishonest rationale that said “same thing”. It’s one reason why I find DPA, Willy, and Theti more interesting. They are honest and admit mistakes. Weeb, Kalibrated, Dima, Suriyak, Duran…not so much.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 14:18 utc | 271
So what are you trying to achieve by posting about Dima’s fallibility every day? Do you want an apology from him, do you want us all to join you in 10 minutes hate of Dima every day or are you just going to bitch about him until the fighting stops? I tend to just not pay attention to sites I dislike but it appears I’m not nearly as sensitive as you are so I’m at a bit of a loss here.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 16 2024 14:34 utc | 274
The problem is that those clickbaiters like Dima, Weeb… are widely disseminated or quoted on MoA whenever there’s a need for some good dose of copium. Case in point a few days back, when b quoted Nebenzya saying cryptically that soon Ukraine would need to completely capitulate.
Wham ! Suddenly a flood of commenters nearly p*** themselves with joy, confidently stating that was it, Ukraine was done for. How ? No idea. It was never explained how we would transition from the current situation (where, as Anonymous correctly states, only minuscules slivers of land exchange hands, and on the attrition side there are no visible signs Ukraine is running out of anything) to a complete capitulation (complete, I imagine, with Russian tanks parading in the streets of Kiev), all in the space of a few weeks.
So there’s this constant see-sawing where, when skeptical people like me, Anonymous or shadowbanned, point out the fact that most Russian-friendly commenters regularly trip over themselves with grossly wrong predictions – and then we get told that yeah, it’s normal, nobody is infallible… And then suddenly the same people who chastise us are suddenly cocksure Russia will be in Odessa by July. Go figure.
Posted by: Micron | Apr 16 2024 15:11 utc | 279
1) Prigozhin had enough command to order his obscene “rebellion” on the initiative of his inner circle that included Utkin. It doesn’t matter what research you did, or whether others were seduces by gossip, bland claims that GRU was in command cannot be correct. At a minimum there was a faction that Prigozhin could command.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 16 2024 15:05 utc | 278
That’s evidence of a mutiny, nothing more. I never said Prigozhin was powerless, I said he was a beard. Russia is a complex society. I don’t know the intricacies of Prigozhins relationship with the state, the GRU or Russian officials. I do know prigozhin started life as a crook and became rich as a well connected contractor providing services to the Russian military. I don’t know the level of corruption he was involved with or what information he held that may have made him very difficult to remove.
What I do know is Wagner was created by the GRU for reason I stated in my earlier post and that Wagner didn’t die with Prigozhin and is still active in Africa. Wagner is no longer fighting alongside the Russian army but perhaps that has more to do with the Russians building up their ground forces to the point where they don’t need Wagner and now it’s back to doing the business it was intended to do. Wagner came with it’s own command structure and now Russia has enough trained, experienced officers and NCO’s that Wagner soldiers can operate under the command of the Russian army.
This is just speculation on my part because only the Russians know the true story.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 16 2024 15:23 utc | 280
HB Norica:
Why are you posting about anything every day. Obviously major events in the war are rare. To me analyzing one of the major (slightly pro Russian) outlets is of topical interest. You do you.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 15:50 utc | 281
If I’m right historians may well describe it as one of the brilliant pieces of statecraft of the modern era.
Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 16 2024 14:58 utc | 277
In fact, it has probably been the case so far in human history that the historians of the victors have agreed on a few lies that they could present to their astonished population.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 16 2024 16:52 utc | 282
@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 16 2024 14:32 utc | 273 with the MOD report…thanks
Yes, the rest is 3rd hand speculation.
I got in trouble for claiming about so many Ukraine military died in a previous day from a rough count and this MOD total looks like 1160 with the point being for me that we are seeing ongoing losses of over a thousand troops a day which has been going on at that level for quite a while and cannot be sustained, IMO.
Unconditional surrender before May 20 seems the unwritten goal for Russia and I expect that to occur.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 16 2024 17:18 utc | 283
Case in point a few days back, when b quoted Nebenzya saying cryptically that soon Ukraine would need to completely capitulate.
Wham ! Suddenly a flood of commenters nearly p*** themselves with joy, confidently stating that was it, Ukraine was done for. How ? No idea.
Posted by: Micron | Apr 16 2024 15:11 utc | 279
If you’d read the rest of the thread, you would know that the Aztec 3rd Light Infantry (the Fightin’ Heart-Pluckers) are marching from Tenochtitlan to carry out a flanking attack on Odessa.
Posted by: McAgnew | Apr 16 2024 17:27 utc | 284
Posted by: rk | Apr 16 2024 14:43 utc | 276
Even if the there are 100 patriot systems out there in the wild, what makes Zelensky think that they’re not there for a reason? Hello, McFly?
0h I forgot, cocaine is a helluva drug. Other than Germany, nobody has stepped up.
Al tanf is a festering sore that Russia should have taken out a decade ago. But, it needs to be protected even more since Irans little demo over the weekend.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 16 2024 17:50 utc | 285
Correction to 1 (that should be eastern, yes eastern). I is lysdexic. 🙁
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 11:48 utc | 252
And Dima is certainly OCD + dyslexic too. On top of the insane speed he talks (I listen at x0.85), he so often gets the teams mixed up — Russia<>Ukraine. I sometimes have to replay to be be sure what he meant. He endlessly repeats himself; contradicts himself 30 seconds later; reiterates yesterday’s news and videos and mapping to pad out the time; not to mention his fantasy speculations. Infuriating but 50% useful as a reliable sitrep.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 16 2024 20:28 utc | 286
If you’d read the rest of the thread, you would know that the Aztec 3rd Light Infantry (the Fightin’ Heart-Pluckers) are marching from Tenochtitlan to carry out a flanking attack on Odessa.
Posted by: McAgnew | Apr 16 2024 17:27 utc | 284
Time zone, and I’ve arrived late to this obviously dead thread.
But I do want to note this sardonic addendum ^ was much appreciated
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 16 2024 21:48 utc | 287
Posted by: Micron | Apr 16 2024 15:11 utc | 279
It doesn’t matter how much territory Russia seizes now. It’s about momentum and morale. Sapping the will to fight of the Ukrainians. Russia doesn’t have to reach Kiev, or Odessa, or even all of the Donbas to effect regime collapse. And when you surrender, terms are dictated to you, including how much, and what, territory you’re going to lose.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 16 2024 22:07 utc | 288
.02% during FEB (yes the magic month Avdiivka fell) and .01% the month after (yes, after the “breakhthrough”). So, even if you say that particular village is irrelevant, overall progress is glacial.
It’s not that that village is so special. But how emblematic it is of cheerleaders, overestimating RFA advance…and underestimating UFA resistance. And underestimating the difficulty in EITHER side making large advances. Team stalemate…
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 16 2024 12:53 utc | 256
You need to be a little more honest in your own numbers there. It’s never been Russia’s goal to conquer all of Ukraine. This is a Western invention. You might as well compare the Russian advances to the total area of Eastern Europe, or European NATO, for all the good it will do.
A better metric would be, pick a date, like November 2023 and compare Russian territorial gains to Ukrainian ones since that time. Or how far the front has moved in one direction or the other since that time. Or compare it to the total area of the Donbas, or other Russian oblasts that voted to join Russia.
But I guess you wouldn’t want to do that since the percentages would be much higher than .01%, and that would destroy your precious narrative about “stalemate.”
Posted by: James M. | Apr 16 2024 22:16 utc | 289
Ukrainian casualties. A guide for BBC ‘journalists’.
Rather than ‘trail around cemeteries’, read obituaries in newspapers or calculate who is no longer having a daily milk delivery to allow these stenographers to conjure up with a nice round 50,000 alleged Russian deaths, you can read the sober daily reports of the Russian Ministry of Defence*. Readers here are very familiar with this source thanks to down south and unimperator.. Taking the latest available:
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (17 April 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces have taken more advantageous lines and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of 57th motorised infantry, 14th, 54th mechanised, and 77th aeromobile brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Sinkovka, Zagoruykovka (Kharkov region), and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
Four counter-attacks launched by assault groups of AFU 63rd mechanised, 3rd assault brigades, and the 125th Territorial Defence Brigade hae been repelled near Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic), Torskoye, and Terny (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses were up to 70 Ukrainian troops, three motor vehicles, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, two Plastun-3000 electronic reconnaissance stations, as well as one Nota electronic warfare station.
In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces have improved the situation along the front line and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of 56th mechanised, 5th, 79th air assault, 28th, 30th, and 93rd mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Orekhovo-Vasilyevka, Blagodatnoye, Bogdanovka, Andreyevka, and Kurdyumovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In addition, three counterattacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 10th Mountain Assault Brigade and 46th Airmobile Brigade have been repelled near Vyemka and Krasnogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses were up to 480 Ukrainian troops, one tank, one armoured fighting vehicle, 20 motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and one Anklav-N electronic warfare station.
In Avdeyevka direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces have improved the tactical situation and inflicted fire damage on units of 24th, 47th, and 59th mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Novgorodskoye, Netaylovo, and Karlovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Eight counter-attacks have been repelled by units of 25th airborne, 68th, 71st jaeger, 23rd, 115th mechanised brigades, and the 78th Separate Air Assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Leninskoye, Novokalinovo, Pervomayskoye, Umanskoye, and Berdychi (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses were up to 330 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, and one D-30 howitzer 122-mm.
In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces have improved the situation along the front line. The servicemen also have defeated units of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade and the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade near Vodyanoye and Makarovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses were up to 80 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two motor vehicles, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
In Kherson direction, the units of the Dnepr Group of Forces have inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the 126th Territorial Defence Brigade near Kazatskoye, Berislav, and Nikolayevka (Kherson region).
The AFU losses were up to 35 Ukrainian troops, five motor vehicles, as well as one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged ammunition depots of the Donetsk Operational-Tactical Group, the 125th Territorial Defence Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the terrorist units of the Russian Volunteer Corps, as well as manpower and military hardware in 132 areas.
70+480+330+80+35= 995
*if you consider the Russian MoD an unreliable source due to your own biases, deduct 25% from the total. So 750 Ukrainian Armed Forces deaths per day.
788 days of conflict at 750 deaths per day produces a conservative estimate of 591,000 Ukrainian Armed Forces deaths since 20th February 2024.
People who understand and have experienced war have posted here that injuries are normally twice the number of deaths, so well over 1 million injured. Some recoverable some permanently disabled, deaf, blind, maimed, paralysed, all traumatised.
Do you want more of this?
Approve the transfer of tax dollars from US, UK, Germany, France and continue to fund this death and destruction in order to save territory owned by Blackrock and Monsanto.
You may even think that the death and destruction is the “best money we ever spent” after all some Russians get killed in return.
Meanwhile western infrastructure, schools and hospitals crumble, bridges collapse and trains crash, your government says it can’t afford to fix potholes and raw sewage is dumped in rivers and streams. The western politicians doing all this insist that they shot down all missiles which destroyed two Israeli air bases and the HQ of the Israeli Air Force. Apparently you can rely on these politicians to protect you. Grant Shapps has a laser pointer that will be operational by 2027. This is true because the BBC stenographers say it’s true.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Apr 18 2024 6:48 utc | 290
591,000 Ukrainian Armed Forces killed and over 1 million wounded since 20th February 2022.
Not since 20th February 2024, apologies for my typo.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Apr 18 2024 6:53 utc | 291
@216. “No power no drones, no drones… front lines kaput!”
Please, drones are low power units. Their are multiple options for distributed low power charge sources. The closer you get to the front, the less avaiable grid power will be anyway.
Posted by: Yarpos | Apr 18 2024 7:31 utc | 292
What’s all this about a missile-strike on a small town north of Kiev? Apparently some drone-makers were having a jamboree in a theatre when a missile came through the ceiling. Naturally the entire Western media (including our own dear Daily Maverick) are spinning it as a vicious attack on harmless civilians which requires that the saintly holy warriors of NATO must immediately flood Ukraine with their magic anti-missile-missiles.
I couldn’t find anything else, however. Are the Russian missileers running out of useful targets?
Posted by: MFB | Apr 18 2024 11:08 utc | 293
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 16 2024 21:48 utc | 287
Cheers. 🙂
Posted by: McAgnew | Apr 19 2024 15:00 utc | 294