Below is a current Reuters headline giving some time dimension to the SMO future that sort of fits with my conjecture except I had Ukraine surrender by Orthodox Easter or not later than early August for both Ukraine and Occupied Palestine to resolve.
Ukraine’s top commander says Russia aims to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 15 2024 3:22 utc | 104

Posted by: Arioch | Apr 14 2024 21:23 utc | 51
###############
I had “muh”. Spellcheck thwarted my best attempts. :S

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 15 2024 3:51 utc | 106

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2024 0:19 utc | 81
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 15 2024 0:15 utc | 79
Tom Q wrote-Otherwise, I just can’t see why any 3LAs would bother. Not like anything any of us say here is going to change a god damned thing. Were that it could…
A very perplexing question, and one I and others have been struggling to find a satisfactory answer to. Nevertheless, I am convinced the Shadow banned type spanning/trolling efforts are very real and are directed by 3 letter agencies- or as I now refer to them as Alphabet Spook Soup Agencies. IMO these agencies are primarily “5 eyes” but I don’t exclude Mossad or Ukrainian intelligence either. Nor do I exclude the high probability that RF and its allies are involved in similar activities.
To reply to both Tom Q and Jake-
As for why MI6 or any other intelligence agency would go to the trouble and expense of recruiting suitable academics (retired or still active) and possibly their students, probably all based in different locations (because of the diversity of expertise expressed by SB and some more recent commentators). Also expenses involved in setting up the necessary communication and control/oversight structures to coordinate responses to particular situations.
I offer the following possible (probable) reasons-
,(1) I suspect it is a “tool” to draw out and presumably identify articulate and knowledgeable responders. Such individuals could be viewed as potential threats or adversaries by overly paranoid spook officers.
(2) As Jake @79 noted obliquely, there is wall of knowledge in MoA which can quickly torpedo any but the most sophisticated attempts to deposit false information, or in the case of (the now apparently lamented) SB, large calibre concern trolling. This is in full accord with (1) above.
(3) The more mundane aim of simply filling threads with spam and nonsense to simply make the site less attractive to genuinely inquisitive readers.
(4) TIN FOIL HAT ALERT!!! As a “training ground for future spooks. My point here is that if a troll-or troll collective- can successfully get through the MoA denizens for at least some time, then the techniques employed are worth developing for future use in more extensive and important information forums and campaigns.
I would also add that the human and financial resources required to set up such organised trolling structures would be a very tiny fraction of those available to national spook agencies.
I realise this is an inadequate answer to the main question, and I do have other speculations, but the above four possibilities are enough for now.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Apr 15 2024 5:05 utc | 108

For those musing. MoA barfleas are of various specialisations.
Some a garden variety know it all’s who stumble down a dimly lit arcade off the mainstreet internet… and feel compelled to correct the bizarre thinking they encounter here. When bludgeoned with facts and raw source material they flee in fright.
Some are proselytising True Believers whose mission it is to convert us to The Truth. Get us to disavow our heretical ways and Wrong Think. They linger longer, because they draw from a wellspring of belief and conviction. Some turn very bitter and aggrieved when years pass and the bar remains resolute in our dissolution.
And then there’s the spooks.
Let me introduce 77th Brigade

Inside the British Army’s secret information warfare machine
They are soldiers, but the 77th Brigade edit videos, record podcasts and write viral posts. Welcome to the age of information warfare
Andy Greenberg Nov 14, 2018
https://www.wired.com/story/inside-the-77th-brigade-britains-information-warfare-military/
>…It was the summer of 2017, … I was visiting a part of the British Army unlike any other. They call it the 77th Brigade. They are the troops fighting Britain’s information wars.
>…there was a suite full of large, electronic sketch pads and multi-screened desktops loaded with digital editing software. The men and women of the 77th knew how to set up cameras, record sound, edit videos. Plucked from across the military, they were proficient in graphic design, social media advertising, and data analytics. Some may have taken the army’s course in Defence Media Operations, and almost half were reservists from civvy street, with full time jobs in marketing or consumer research.
From office to office, I found a different part of the Brigade busy at work. One room was focussed on understanding audiences: the makeup, demographics and habits of the people they wanted to reach. Another was more analytical, focussing on creating “attitude and sentiment awareness” from large sets of social media data. Another was full of officers producing video and audio content. Elsewhere, teams of intelligence specialists were closely analysing how messages were being received and discussing how to make them more resonant.
Explaining their work, the soldiers used phrases I had heard countless times from digital marketers: “key influencers”, “reach”, “traction”.
You normally hear such words at viral advertising studios and digital research labs. But the skinny jeans and wax moustaches were here replaced by the crisply ironed shirts and light patterned camouflage of the British Army.
~~~~
What does the secretive 77th Brigade do? George Allison – June 21, 2016
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/secretive-77th-brigade/
>… The 2014 British Army Journal gives a detailed description on the 77th, which was was called the Security Assistance Group at thew time, “the unit will be be focal point for levers of soft power or persistent engagement”.
>…gobbledygook. But it’s a cyber unit dedicated to tracking Wrong Think.
Which is exactly the kind of think we mostly drink here @bar.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 15 2024 5:40 utc | 110

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report #Summary for the Morning of 15 April 2024; pub. 06:48📍
🎯 The RFAF continue daily strikes of varying intensity against enemy rear facilities. During the day, enemy personnel sites in the #Sumy region and an energy facility in #Kharkov were hit. Explosions of “Geraniums” sounded in #Dnepropetrovsk. Zelensky said that during the week, the RFAF used 130 Geraniums, 80 missiles and 700 FABs and ODABs with UMPC.
🔹In the #Kherson direction, the frontline remains unchanged, the enemy retains the ability to strike with 155-mm artillery. It is reported from the field that one of the foreign guns worked on our positions for about 40 min. It was also reported that two people died from enemy fire on civilians in the Kakhovka municipal district: one in the village of #Tsarskoye, the other in #Kakhovka.
🔹On the #Zaporozhye front, there are fierce battles in #Rabotino and northwest of #Verbovoye. The enemy does not intend to retreat in this direction. One of the defence lines is being built in the area of #Orekhov and Malaya Tokmachka.
🔹On the #Vremyevka ledge, local battles in the area of #Staromayorskyoye and #Urozhaynoye.
🔹In the #SouthDonetsk direction, slowly, but every day, the RFAF are breaking through the AFU defence in #Novomikhaylovka and around the village. It is reported that to the north, in #Krasnogorovka, our troops are developing offensives on the southern outskirts in heavy battles.
🔹West of #Avdeyevka, the Russian Army is attacking on a wide front. Heavy fighting is underway at #Netaylovo, #Umanskoye, #Semyonovka, #Berdychi, and #Novokalinovo.
🔹#ChasovYar remains one of the hottest front sectors. According to local reports, the eastern part of the city is difficult for both our troops and the enemy to secure. Footage of powerful strikes by heavy bombs of the RFAF on the town is spreading across the net. The enemy claims that half of the apartment buildings in the eastern part of the town were destroyed by our fire. A new element was the advance of our troops to the northeastern outskirts of #ChasovYar (dachas area). To the south, in the area of the reserve, Russian assault units occupied one of the enemy’s strongholds. There is also progress towards the Seversky Donets – Donbass water utility along the T-0504 motorway.
🔹In the #KrasnyLiman sector, #Terny has no front advances, while the enemy assesses our actions as aimed at expanding the control zone to the north, which will increase the front’s projection and give the Russian Army room for maneuver.
🛡Over the day, the RF MoD reported the destruction of aircraft-type UAVs: over the #Belgorod region – 5, yesterday morning over the #Krasnodar land -10, also yesterday morning off the west coast of #Crimea – 5.
💥Over the day, civilians of the #DPR were shelled from 155-mm artillery. 7 civilians were wounded by Nazi fire. In #Gorlovka wounded women born in 1944, 1948, 1960, 1964 and 1984. In #Aleksandrovka, a woman born in 1964 was injured as by a UAV drop on a city bus, born in 1951.
🎬#Belgorod region – our soldiers tracked the enemy UAV crew on its territory and delivered a 152 mm artillery strike.

https://t.me/two_majors/22377

Posted by: Down South | Apr 15 2024 5:52 utc | 112

Telegram trawl.>…
NEWSFLASH: Zelensky has withdrawn his earlier request for Israeli air defense systems because they shoot down only 99% of targets, and not 146% like Ukrainian ones.
~~
The EU’s failed foreign policy has turned “the whole world against the West” – Borrell
“The lack of unity among EU countries has cost us very dearly in the Arab world, as well as in many countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia. The difference in our reaction to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine was widely used by Russian propaganda’, said the head of European diplomacy.
Borrell added that the EU is still experiencing difficulties with the shipment of shells and faces challenges in terms of new military technologies. Brussels must “make a breakthrough in the defense industry”, and this may require new borrowing.
~~~
There’s protocols, there’s inadvertent oversight, and then there’s obvious snubs.
>…German Chancellor Scholz with a high powered business delegation arrived in China to discuss business (with his Chinese overlords)
He was met at the airport by the deputy mayor of the city of Chongqing….
Diplomatic slap to the face for all the shit talking they do.
~~~~
Demon about to return to Hell??
WEF Founder Hospitalized:
Klaus Schwab, the 86-year-old head of the World Economic Forum (WEF), has been hospitalized and is in critical condition, sparking a flurry of reactions across social media.
While some express concern, others celebrate the potential end of Schwab’s leadership, speculating on the future of the WEF and its role in global affairs. The WEF has not confirmed or denied the rumors.
Schwab’s potential passing has also led to discussions about the organization’s leadership succession, with some pointing to Bill Gates as a possible successor.
~~~
Cyberspec News reports:
The 🇺🇦25th airmobile brigade which was plagued by surrenders recently will be disbanded.
The 🇺🇦67th brigade, formerly from the nationalist “Right Sector”, whose fighters left their positions and equipment in the Chasov Yar microdistrict, will also be disbanded.
The Bgd commanders evacuated their headquarters to the western part of the city.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 15 2024 6:15 utc | 114

Russian war correspondent: Zelenskiy is making plans for a “new Bucha”
Andrei Rudenko, war correspondent for Russian broadcaster VGTRK, claims that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is preparing a new cruel provocation similar to the events in Bucha. Rudenko writes on his Telegram channel:
“A convoy of cars and minibuses with Z symbols appeared near Kharkov. The locals initially thought it was our military, but then it turned out that it was the Ukrainian military in our uniform.
Zelenskiy is apparently preparing a new Butcha. Residents of the Kharkov region should be extremely careful and attentive.”

Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 6:38 utc | 116

@ psychohistorian | Apr 15 2024 3:22 utc | 102

Ukraine’s top commander says Russia aims to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9

It is worth remembering that the West and so-called-ukraine has been “predicting” Russia to do this or capture that before this or that holiday or anniversary. It has never turned out that way. Russia has not once operated their military to an arbitrary or even political schedule so far.

Posted by: boneless | Apr 15 2024 6:58 utc | 118

@79 Jake
Re: trolls
Yes most people only measure things against their own biases, if they agree with then, they’re real, if not their fake paid propagandists.
It can’t be changed, I just read and learn from good posters, those with an agenda usually have no good information just canned bites from the propaganda services.
Which carries its own informational value too, it’s just very circumscribed by what they want you to think, which is actually the valuable information.
I recommend CNN if you want the what you should think info, it’s well written and usually at the top of the page(check out the analysis op eds in particular)

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Apr 15 2024 7:26 utc | 120

Below is a current Reuters headline giving some time dimension to the SMO future that sort of fits with my conjecture except I had Ukraine surrender by Orthodox Easter or not later than early August for both Ukraine and Occupied Palestine to resolve.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 15 2024 3:22 utc | 102
That might be a little too early, though it depends on what happens this summer. I think, to be safe, by Feb. 2025 this SMO is done, or is past the point of no return (i.e., the West knows its done). That should be enough time to de-militarize Ukraine. Plus, both Biden and Trump are term-limited, and second terms without domestic pressure can be um…I’ll say unpredictable.
Posted by: James M. | Apr 15 2024 5:48 utc | 109
I might be tempted to re-ash an old tangential analysis that pointed to early may 2024 as a relevant nexus date(I have kept it verbatim and still consider that the quick end was tested but found too expensive)
Arestovich dropping more truth bombs.
https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1729928113318940758
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 30 2023 0:00 utc | 62
Very good for a tangencial analysis, in both cases I’ll use the percentual duration months from start as a proxy for country population and war duration, next apply ratios to army and KIA (WWI ratios for mobilization and KIA)
The french soldier’s mutiny in may 1917, in a 51 month war.
with 21 months instead of 33 we’re at the 63% level
That gives Ukraine starting population 24.500.000, total mobilization till the end 5.000.000, UAF KIA till the end, 820.000, end of war mid October 2024
But if I take the german protests in january 1918 the scenario is slightly different.
That gives Ukraine starting population 33.500.000, total mobilization till the end 6.700.000, UAF KIA till the end, 1.050.000, end of war early may 2024
Truth is this last one is a bit of a stretch as refuseniks is not population protests, but I always like to have upper and lower bounds. If the upper but crossing events, in 5 months huge protests in kiev so early may 2024 will always be interesting, either end of war or the protests that announce it in less than 6 months.
So my previous proposal for end of war of this Christmas (with a massive offensive) or 2025 (by sheer termination of all front line soldiers) is not in line with this analysis unless we consider that some months before all available soldiers are killed anybody quits.
Posted by: Newbie | Nov 30 2023 12:21 utc | 103
Link

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 15 2024 7:31 utc | 122

I have never watched Dima and from what i gather he is a bunch of wind.
Posted by: watcher | Apr 15 2024 3:13 utc | 101
Dima is an aggregator of information found mainly on Russian and Ukrainian language telegram channels. he speaks the language, knows the culture and has firsthand knowledge of the battlefield terrain.
I can get the story from the western perspective and through official Russian and Ukrainian media but I don’t speak Russian, I don’t know the culture and I’ve never travelled through Ukraine so I don’t know the terrain … he does and he and his team wrap it up in a nice neat package and put it out there twice a day every day like clockwork.
Dima is just one source of information offering a unique perspective and a perspective that the west does not want you to know. As you would expect from this kind of grass roots reporting it’s gossipy and full of speculation … it’s up to you what you do with that information. Personally I wouldn’t bet the farm on his analysis but he’s giving us a perspective on this war you just can’t find anywhere else.
If anything his maps are more conservative than what you see at either Ukrainian or western maps like Deepstate or ISW. He refuses to change the map without geolocation even after the likes of deepstate and ISW have acknowledged Russian advances.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 15 2024 7:59 utc | 124

HB_Norica | Apr 15 2024 7:59 utc | 122
Far better to get the Russian military big picture. Many Russian bloggers, even those that go to the frontlines are fighting the small war. I don’t disparage them. It is Russians that are dying. Far better to understand the greater strategy, plus the depth of the Russian military. Dima is sometimes right but that is very diluted by a liberal helping of tin foil hat analysis and projection. and those two are near impossible to distinguish between. He was on Lira’s round tables with other bloggers a number of times and Lira would constantly pull him up because rather than just putting in something solid on a particular subject he would always drift off into long winded lala land.
For anything Russian, use the yandex browser.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2024 8:35 utc | 126

Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 8:56 utc | 125
Wow. Didn’t have to wait long for the new French contingent to get blasted.
Of course those would be French Foreign Legion so they don’t have to be accounted for Macron’s election campaign.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 15 2024 9:11 utc | 128

looks like the rt mirror site in germany has been blocked.
ve love our press-freedomz, ja!

Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 15 2024 9:27 utc | 130

… Which is exactly the kind of think we mostly drink here @bar.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 15 2024 5:40 utc | 108
Just the tipple, many thanks. Belingcat and similar low rent fronts of western infowar give a flavour of how things are at the disposable end of the “intelligence” racket. MoA seems to warrant a selection from the remainder bins, who’ve now taken to debating their own existence as a way to increase the noise ratio.
At least they’re easier than ever to spot.

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 15 2024 9:40 utc | 132

looks like the rt mirror site in germany has been blocked.
ve love our press-freedomz, ja!
Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 15 2024 9:27 utc | 128
..
.
.
No it’s not, at least I can access it and I’m sitting in the middle of DE.
Adjusting the DNS entry on your PC may help.

Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 9:44 utc | 134

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2024 9:44 utc | 133
.
.
Things will get even worse in Germany and the EU if the law passes. And it will come through.
Then you can no longer criticize the government in social networks or in particular in these, which is then punishable, and abroad there is no mention of what is going on here.
Off to the NEW democracy:
THE STATE IS ALWAYS RIGHT
We know it from the GDR and China
THE PARTY IS ALWAYS RIGHT
find the mistake about freedom

Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 9:54 utc | 136

Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 9:44 utc | 132
i changed the dns back when they first banned rt here.
the problem is that you once again have to circumvent the issue of censorship, all the while the new goebbels in brussels is yapping about freedom of press.
*****
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 15 2024 9:44 utc | 133
yes i experienced it first hand a while ago while wearing an old zorro shirt during work in the garden. someone got offended by it that i had a visit from our friendly police.
during our yearly kerb (a little town-festival) my wife made russischer zupfkuchen (chocolate cheesecake) among other things, and some got offended by it, so for the last two years we were not allowed to have that cake.
you cannot make this up.
this is how low the average german population has sunk thanks to what you correctly said, the control that those unelected autocrats in brussels exercise on the mob.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 15 2024 10:08 utc | 138

Dima is authentic and genial.

Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 10:16 utc | 140

3. Oh…and partially controlled isn’t 100% controlled. The “Ber” is still not under the red. 😉
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2024 10:15 utc | 137
Doesn’t look that way on the Southfront map, but I’ll admit my eyesight isn’t the best, so I’ll take your word for it.
As to the rest, I agree with you. Sorry if I came on a little strong with you. You looked like a troll, but it sounds now like you’re just looking for a more balanced or nuanced perspective on the war. I can respect that.

Posted by: James M. | Apr 15 2024 10:46 utc | 142

Based on Dima’s reports, it seems Ukraine absolutely has lost initiative in the Rabotyne, Ugledar and Novomikhalovka directions. Albeit these seem to be low activity and low concentration areas, but they just can sit there and take it. The two villages west of Novomikhalovka (Konstantinovka and the one west of it) are already under relatively heavy fire.
As far as Krasnogorovka, Umanske. Russia controls some east and south part of Krasnogorovka and beat off several counter-attacks aiming to retake those positions. The counter-battery seems to be pretty effective in this area, and the area between Umanske and Netailove. Ukraine’s 25th brigade recently had a large chunk (several hundred) supposedly surrendered next to Umanske.
Russia also controls the area south of Artemovsk, on the Kurdumyivka-Kleschevka. Here too counter-battery was strong.
Chasov Yar and the Kanal area will probably be a long slog. But a lot of bombing seems concentrated on this area. The bridge between Chasov Yar-Kanal is destroyed (apparently?) and RU controls the west bank of the river with FPVs. A good chunk of a brigade and battalion is stuck in Kanal.
AFU has driven RUAF somewhat away from Torske, but doesn’t have much ability to exploit it. Remember that the forest extends east of Torske, and after that there’s a wide area of fields. If AFU manages any effective attack, it might force RU to move further east over the field. AFU seems to have concentrated a lot of FPV drones in this area which helps them.
Kupyansk-Sinkovka seems to be relatively inactive now.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 15 2024 11:01 utc | 144

It’s going to be a long haul to Odessa, if RFA takes a minor city like Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar every 6-12 months. With considerable effort needed. When looked at on the totality of the map, we end up seeing movement, but only in certain small areas of what is a very long front. And only when zoomed in a fair amount. The % territory by month reports make this very clear.
This is why I see a negotiated solution in the end…and the issue is not Russian willingness, but Ukrop and US/NATO willingness. As it is now, Russia is not even controlling the areas like the Donetsk that they have formally annexed. They are going to end up with less than half a loaf at the end of the day.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2024 10:55 utc | 141

Don’t think so. The ‘negotiated solution’ is purely western copium and propaganda because they want to ignore the issues. They want it all the problems just to ‘go away’ and imagine something not so inconvenient.
The key is who can sustain their army and fire support, supplies, and prevent the other side from bombarding them and sustaining their army and supplies. Nato is on the losing end of this match.
Ukraine is scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to getting new ‘volunteers’ and they use people very inefficiently. Several insider channels like Rezident and Legitimny talk about massive casualties due to relative lack of weapons and air defenses and the utilized tactics.
The war might be decided without much ground movement as the ability to sustain the AFU becomes nearly impossible. They can dig trenches

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 15 2024 11:10 utc | 146

@144
…can dig trenches but not do much else but wait their fate.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 15 2024 11:12 utc | 148

@psychohistorian | Apr 15 2024 3:22 utc | 102

Below is a current Reuters headline giving some time dimension to the SMO future that sort of fits with my conjecture except I had Ukraine surrender by Orthodox Easter or not later than early August for both Ukraine and Occupied Palestine to resolve.

The main purpose of such rumors is to later gloat that “the Russians failed”, even though the Russians said no such thing.
Think “take Kiev in 3 days” .

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2024 11:22 utc | 150

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Apr 15 2024 10:03 utc | 135
Should have been a comma — “…
anal, pro-Russian …”
Anal in that reference meaning a great love of obsessive detail about war gaming, thus having a fanboy attraction for even the brigade patches … All a bit shortsighted for me. It’s a cult following.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 15 2024 11:29 utc | 152

This is why I see a negotiated solution in the end…and the issue is not Russian willingness, but Ukrop and US/NATO willingness. As it is now, Russia is not even controlling the areas like the Donetsk that they have formally annexed. They are going to end up with less than half a loaf at the end of the day.
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2024 10:55 utc | 141
Here I’ll disagree. I don’t think the Russian goal is to take territory at a snail’s pace all the way to Odessa. I think their goal is to break the Ukrainian lines to effect revolution and/or regime collapse. If that’s the case, they don’t need to go all the way to wherever. They can still dictate terms to the Ukrainians.
The precedent for this is the Eastern Front in WW I. Germany received a lot of territory their troops never entered after the treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Ultimately they couldn’t keep it since they lost on the Western front, but that’s not going to happen to Russia in Ukraine. Anyway, that is one scenario that we shouldn’t discount.
Russia,, in my view, will not settle. Not for less. They have the manpower and equipment to keep up the current rate of fighting/attrition for a number of years. Ukraine cannot. Putin’s position is secure. Zelensky’s is not. The US public has a short attention span, and limited tolerance for overseas adventures. The Russian public is all in, fully committed to the war.
I see this ending in only one way.

Posted by: James M. | Apr 15 2024 11:42 utc | 154

…can dig trenches but not do much else but wait their fate.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 15 2024 11:12 utc | 146
Which doesn’t take long, as I explained several times a 9 year decrease from 64 y in life expectancy for GLOBAL ukranian males is probably a 27-32 decrease for those, one in three or four, unfortunate enough to end in the front so… 32-37
Seems on par with those KIA so far…

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 15 2024 11:55 utc | 156

Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 10:16 utc | 138

Dima is authentic and genial.

how can anyone take this character seriously?
Posted by: vargas | Apr 7 2024 8:32 utc | 243
What is going on with the wlectricity in Ukraine? Have they managed to repair the damage ebtirely?
Are any parts still wothout electricity?
Posted by: vargas | Apr 4 2024 10:52 utc | 33
… Dima is giving too many low level details
Posted by: vargas | Apr 3 2024 20:08 utc | 115
……I am sorry, I was wrong. Russia has more FPV drones, but I understood Dima in a wrong way..
Posted by: vargas | Mar 20 2024 10:21 utc | 310

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVaYVkS4S34
As I predicted, NATO forces, in small groups are slowly entering Ukraine. According to Dima, Romanian forces are even used and fighting in attack on Russia proper.
There are many highly motivated soldiers from NATO countries to make things more difficult for Russia.

excerpt from the transcript:
Russia uh on this video for example we
9:30
can see uh the use and work of Romanian
9:34
soldiers Romanian soldiers we can’t say
9:36
that this is like regular Romanian Army
9:39
this is obviously volunteers or
9:41
mercenaries from Romania but they have a
9:43
separate Squad separate Battalion and
9:45
the SE this separate Battalion was
9:47
operating on the border with Russian
9:49
Federation so this is very interesting

Posted by: ghiwen | Apr 15 2024 12:14 utc | 158

In WW1 Germany ‘didn’t lose on the Western front,” they surrendered because of the Allies naval blockade which was starving the German populace.
Posted by: canuck | Apr 15 2024 12:16 utc | 157
Ok, fine, fine you’re correct, they didn’t lose on the front. Technically it was regime collapse. But the Western front was the only one Germany was fighting on at the time.

Posted by: James M. | Apr 15 2024 12:24 utc | 160

Dima gives too many dtails sometimrs but for me he is the best source.

Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 12:48 utc | 162

@ Oliver Krug, §161:
“If they are attacked as a result of these actions, they will of course be protected again by NATO.”
No, Art 5 explicitly states that independent offensive actions by a member state and the consequences thereof are excluded.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 15 2024 12:54 utc | 164

No, Art 5 explicitly states that independent offensive actions by a member state and the consequences thereof are excluded.
.
.
.
And since when does the USA care about the West about an article where even treaties don’t?
Don’t be silly, this article becomes active on command or not, vassals states that are too afraid or have a backbone government just don’t follow it.
Anyone who definitely won’t follow him without their own benefit is the USA. They don’t swap New York or Boston for Berlin or Paris, much less for Warsaw or the mini Balts.

Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 13:37 utc | 166

Barrel Brown | Apr 15 2024 11:12 utc | 145
You’re still missing my point, evident by firstly dismissing my opening as word salad; secondly by not understanding what Rumsfeld was getting at on that occassion; by returning to argue and justify no better than before the speculative details we will disagree on till we die.
A final reiteration:
It is not the substance that interests me, it is the construction of statements that people in general use to justify imaginative realities, ie conspiracy theories based on nothing more than inventive thought. I don’t care if you’re right or wrong, if I’m right or wrong. I’m more concerned that you and others peddle conjecture as fact. You did it again, vis
>>>” I will say categorically that is BULLSHIT, and if you buy that Jake, you are far more gullible than your usually sensible and reasoned posts indicate.”<<< You see, there you are saying, definitively, with total belief, yet without a scrap of evidence, that you are right and I am gullible, despite your "rightness" being based only on your imagination. But the truth is that neither of us truly KNOWS. I formed *my belief* re sb on deductions from his actual behaviours here, the only evidence we have. You've just imagined your beliefs, a theory of a conspiracy by forces unseen. And that's what gets up my nose in general, and specifically around here. People (everywhere) confuse facts with beliefs, with reasonable deductions, with faulty logic, with unfounded speculation, with biased perceptions, with fantasy imaginings, with crazy delusions. That was my whole point about CT research and for including mention of Simplicius' article ... which you completely passed over in your rush back to your pet theory about 3LAs. You can call your spook scenaria "plausible". But they are only plausible to YOU, not me, because YOU made them up. I think they are highly implausible. To close, I enjoy debunking all the shit Rumsfeld got for his famous spiel. Criticism of it illustrates how little people know their own mind. It made perfect sense to anyone who knows Vedic philosophy, as I do (my little specialty subject, so please indulge me momentarily). He has ripped it and imperfectly condensed it (via Western plagiarist logicians) from the ancient philosophy. Please try to ingest it rather than dismiss it as some twisted word salad. It concerns fundamental theory of mind: 1. Human consciousness has 4 levels of awareness. The conscious, information in immediate awareness, ie not in memory but present knowing; the subconscious, known just below the surface, accessible by memory recall; the individual unconscious, perhaps dimly known, or once known but since lost out if wilful recall, the instinctive which can be accessed with practices like self reflection, meditation, and hypnosis; the super conscious, aka the collective unconscious, knowledge that is common to all, but only at a cosmic, collective level. This is SUPER HIDDEN, accessible only by deep introspection, eg advanced meditation methods or psychedelics. I could give you day to day examples of each of these different levels but most people can recognise them as valid. 2. Now, when one says "I know" or "I don't know", at what level of knowing do they mean? The conscious level? The subconscious level? The individual unconscious level? Or the collective unconscious level? Think about it. We "know" and "don't know" in many different ways. 3. So when Rumsfeld tried to explain this, he butchered it, he truncated it, and said: "There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know" That was crystal fucking clear to me, because it is true, albeit incomplete. But to most people it sounded like gobbledygook because they have little fucking self awareness of what they do and don't know, and have never thought about the different levels of knowledge. Mentally lazy fuckers just heard that and zoned out ..."too many words". Or, like you, they thought he was dodging the questions. If you ignore he was the SuperNeoCon Defence Secretary, it's an accurare answer to why he didn't know what he didn't know. It's perfectly true and a structural fact of human psychology. You want the full story? You wanna know what the Vedic philosophy fully says about knowledge? (Paraphrased from the Sanskrit): There are things we know, and we know that we know them. Then there are things we THINK we know, but we don't really. We just BELIEVE we know them. These are false beliefs and self delusions. There are things we've heard from others -- maybe knowledgeable or otherwise. This is merely hearsay, not knowledge. Then there are things we don't think we know, but which we really do know. We have just buried them, forgotten them to history. They can be reawakened. There are things we don't know, and we know that we don't know them. These are aspects of our ignorance we don't mind admitting to. Then there are things we don't know but we don't know that we don't know them. These are our ignorances that we can't even begin to imagine, because we cant even conceive of them existing. So there you are. Rumsfeld got it 60% correct. If you really want a deeper examination of its validity, (and how Americans THINK they made it up in 1979!), see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_unknown_unknowns
And not a skerrick of word salad in this post, just a forensic model of human levels of knowledge.
So whenever I hear anyone say the words “I know” I immediately think “Oh yeah? At what level of knowledge do you REALLY know that?”

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 15 2024 13:54 utc | 168

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 15 2024 13:57 utc | 169
i hope russia shells that construction site and simply answers with “we dont know who is shelling, just like you dont know who shells znpp.” while smileing poilitely.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 15 2024 14:06 utc | 170

Posted by: ghiwen | Apr 15 2024 12:14 utc | 158
There are two parts to Dima’s “military summary channel”. The first is his map where he aggregates data from a variety of sources to come up with a map of the battlefield.
The second is his analysis which is mostly speculation.
If you watch for the maps you’re likely getting the most balanced map of the conflict. If you stay for the analysis then it’s up to you whether you believe him or not. Some of his stuff is insightful because he has first hand knowledge of the country and the culture but some is just pure rumour and speculation. I seem to remember him revealing on the Duran that he didn’t have any military experience so his opinion is just his opinion.
One of the problems he has is his English is somewhat lacking in precision. You have to be forgiving and figure out what he really trying to say. Yesterday he called a chimney a drainpipe … I have kids I figured it out.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 15 2024 14:27 utc | 172

Chasov Yar:
From what I understand, the main remaining fortress is Toretsk/ New-York, west of Gorlovka.
In order to block its supply routes, RuAF needs to capture Chasov Yar and Ocheretine (+ further north).
What I can’t figure out:
I doubt anybody wants to fight for Kiev & other big cities. RuAF might repeat what it did in March 2022, encircle Kiev, forcing/ enabling negotiations & helping AFU keep Azov Nazis in check. But after May 21st, who’ll sign the ceasefire/ capitulation on behalf of Ukraine?

Posted by: smuks | Apr 15 2024 14:43 utc | 174

@ Oliver Krug, §161:
“If they are attacked as a result of these actions, they will of course be protected again by NATO.”
No, Art 5 explicitly states that independent offensive actions by a member state and the consequences thereof are excluded.
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 15 2024 12:54 utc | 164
Article 5
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .
???

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 15 2024 14:54 utc | 176

As answer to Post 176,
Article 6 makes the area for article 5 more clear:
Article 6
For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:
on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.
So Nato Troops in Ukraine are not protected by article 5.
But an attack may trigger a response by article 4, which is less defined:
Article 4
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

Posted by: HEL | Apr 15 2024 15:03 utc | 178

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 15 2024 14:27 utc | 173
My opinion is that sb was just a lone individual, and with a not very subtle approach. There are others here who are more professional, but with the same aim. If you leave their posts with a vague feeling of disquiet, look carefully at further posts.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 15 2024 15:07 utc | 180

174:
It’s a long way from Chasiv Yar to Kiev. Look at how slow Russia moves. Even after the “breakthrough” at Avdiivka, they were held up for close to two months at a crappy village like Berdichi, without prepared fortifications and with a very modest water hazard (like a golf course creek and ponds).

Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2024 15:20 utc | 182

French president Macron won’t be happy as RF weapons killed French mercenaries (more likely troops) who were aiding and abetting the Neo-Nazi regimes forces in Ukraine.
https://ria.ru/20240415/naemniki-1940055559.html

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 15 2024 15:30 utc | 184

It’s a long way from Chasiv Yar to Kiev. Look at how slow Russia moves. Even after the “breakthrough” at Avdiivka, they were held up for close to two months at a crappy village like Berdichi, without prepared fortifications and with a very modest water hazard (like a golf course creek and ponds).
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2024 15:20 utc | 182
.
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Well, a long way?
The question is always: is this road bumpy and full of holes, or is it a highway with the population waving at the edges?
Have you ever been to Ukraine and east of Kiev?
If not, it’s better to keep your mouth shut, pointing at maps doesn’t replace reality. Every place in the east and sometimes every village that might have had tactical significance was filled with concrete.
These “bunkers” suddenly stop in the direction of Kiev. I was there and saw it with my own eyes. Although NOTHING has been done in terms of infrastructure in Ukraine since around 2014, the highways have country roads and there are more and more towards the west. This means you can move forces almost at highway speed once the concrete obstacles in the east have been overcome.
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If you don’t compare Russian strategists to US analysts and if you haven’t experienced the Russian mentality yourself, then it’s better to keep your mouth shut.

Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 15:40 utc | 186

Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 15 2024 15:20 utc | 182
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Question How long did it take Russians to get to Berlin…and with horse-drawn wagons.
How long did it take Allies from France to Berlin…
Wherever you then exchange areas south of Berlin for a piece of Berlin, without this exchange YOU would have had nothing.
Without this exchange, the GDR and the Russian sector would NEVER have existed!
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I lived in the American sector (Leipzig) at the time and was able to enjoy 65 years of East Russian life because of the exchange
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Also a question about relying on US rely on DIE and you are abandoned!

Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 15:48 utc | 188

@ Bemildred 189
A trap has now been laid for NATO and they seem hell bent on walking into it. Sadly, their own hubris and rhetoric means they haven’t got a ‘golden bridge’ to retreat over.
In April 2022 they could have walked away with a ‘win’ via the Istanbul agreements and a big one in the circumstances.

Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 15 2024 16:15 utc | 190

‼️BREAKING
‼️🇷🇺💥🇫🇷🏴‍☠️🇺🇦 On the morning of April 15, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit the location of French mercenaries in Slavyansk, controlled by Ukraine.

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/109151

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2024 16:57 utc | 192

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2024 16:57 utc | 192
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Report: About 60 mercenaries and Ukrainian officers killed in attack on Slavyansk
According to a report by the TASS news agency, around 60 foreign mercenaries and career officers of the Ukrainian military are said to have died in the Russian air raid on the city of Slavyansk. The news agency quotes an unnamed representative of the Russian armed forces:
“There are reports that at the time of the attack there were career officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including high-ranking and foreign mercenaries, in the accommodation in Slavyansk. These were French as well as representatives of the USA and Georgia.”
According to the source, there were up to 100 people at the target site of the attack, of whom around 60 were killed.
The coordinator of the pro-Russian underground in Nikolayev had previously reported a Russian attack on Slavyansk in which mercenaries from France were said to have been hit

Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 17:04 utc | 194

Posted by: Passerby | Apr 15 2024 17:04 utc | 193
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That’s why: Anyone who has the USA as a “friend” doesn’t need enemies.

Posted by: ossi | Apr 15 2024 17:07 utc | 196

Correct. The USA is not our friend.
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2024 17:06 utc | 195
States do not have friends, they have interests – that is all.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 15 2024 17:57 utc | 198

PS NOBODY reply please – or go over to the Week in Review
Posted by: watcher | Apr 14 2024 21:24 utc | 53
Thanks, I really do appreciate it. But I am done with that topic for the time being; I won’t be wasting anyone’s time with more Christ debates, even on open threads.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 14 2024 21:32 utc | 58

That’s it? The Aztecs just get a free pass on their crimes? The whole thing just gets swept under the rug? Shame on you, MoA!
;-P

Posted by: McAgnew | Apr 15 2024 18:19 utc | 200