Posted by: Milton | Apr 7 2024 23:44 utc | 94
Always torture when the Russians or another “hostile state power” are concerned, eh?
I would bet that when they go on trial, evidence will be presented, including to the world media (who, here in the West, will ignore it or claim it was fabricated), that backs up the statements of the indicted.
And what’s the old saying “It isn’t true until there’s an official denial”? The US sure did issue an “official denial” quickly in the wake of the Crocus attacks, amirite?
Ukros did it with help from MI6, CIA and likely somewhere mixed in there Mossad.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 8 2024 0:58 utc | 104

@ Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 8 2024 0:43 utc | 102
I’m reminded of the 100 years war. England won every major battle, at one time capturing the French king and 20% of the nobles. Every few years, English forces ran roughshod through the western peasants of France, and the French forces could do little to stop them.
Yet England couldn’t support forces consistently across the channel.
France was hurt as much by stupid foreign war adventures in Algeria and Hungary as they were by the English.
In the end, the French monarchy survived, the French nation survived, and the English withdrew from the continent for over 200 years.
OTAN and the EU may be changed, but will not “collapse”, politics be dammed.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Apr 8 2024 1:05 utc | 106

A year or so ago it was a French soldier, and now a Canadian soldier dies in the mountains:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/switzerland-avalanche-canadian-soldier-1.7166297

Posted by: Isolationist Canuck | Apr 8 2024 1:14 utc | 108

@101 unimperator
re: US financing
Current short term rates aren’t actually that high. But yes, the bulk of the debt in the past year or more has been of duration 1 year or less. At this point they’re rolling over about 10 Tril each year, mostly already short dated (and ofc not including 2-3T in new debt). Anyway each 0.25% bump from the FED would be an immediate $25B increase in annual interest payments. So FED is done doing that.
Probably there will be some David Copperfield magic to make part of it disappear and get Biden thru the year, which is maybe part of why Yellen went to China. What’s in it for them, I have no idea. I think they’re just being polite to her and Biden out of traditional respect for the grandparents.

Posted by: pxx | Apr 8 2024 1:19 utc | 110

OTAN and the EU may be changed, but will not “collapse”, politics be dammed.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | Apr 8 2024 1:05 utc | 105
Yep, I see another 10-100 years of UKR/UK/US/NATO sabotage/terrorism needling Russia just because they hate them and just because they can. The West vs Russo “war” won’t abate just because of money or a change of their varying PMs and Presidents! Doesn’t cost much for a few AK47s and 10 kgs of explosives, a few drones into theatres or the Kremlin by a few dissaffected proxy seperatists. Terrorism is the new world of forever wars, post 9/11, post ISIS, post Ukraine. Vis Nordstream2. All in a day’s work for the hegemon.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 8 2024 1:40 utc | 112

I think it’s a nice word to start considering , AFU as stated 25-30k month but I wouldn’t be surprised by twice as much
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wastage_(military)

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 8 2024 1:52 utc | 114

That requires a lot of ifs, not one of which is assured.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 8 2024 1:24 utc | 110
As is with with your hypothetical future.
That was the point.

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 8 2024 1:56 utc | 116

Posted by: bisfugged | Apr 8 2024 1:55 utc | 114
Don’t misquote me.
I clearly wrote that the MIC was 1 of many entities which keeps Europe under US control, not solely “the central one”, and OF WHICH they are all hard primary trade items (energy, minerals,
agriculture, weapons, IT,) compared to the abstract USD which “funds” them. To you econofreaks, the USD is some cyber banking entity which controls the world. Well yes, in monetary theory and on your computer screens. But in the real world, real people make and buy and sell real shit, to eat and travel and keep warm and conduct web business, etc. Not everyone in the world eats US dollars.
The evidence is clearly growing by the day that alternate sovereign currencies can support nations, eg Russia, China, India. You econo-doomers fail to see how, if America just relaxes into being one currency in a multipolar global system, and restructures around NOT being the holy reserve, it will SURVIVE but no longer RULE. Sure, it will wriggle and squirm (like Yellen is presently doing in China!)
What’s more, the ineffectiveness and self-harming effects of sanctions will slowly dawn on the imposers such that they will have to reassess their monetary warrin tactics.
But emerging military and economic and population and market forces will ensure that this happens over coming years. I don’t see what your problem is, except a pompous disposition.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 8 2024 3:14 utc | 118

Re: Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 8 2024 3:17 utc | 118

I think it behooves anyone who thinks NATO will collapse needs to explain how that would happen. Do some nations actually announce termination of their membership? Join something else? Like a New Warsaw Pact (um….but without Warsaw)? Or maybe it still exists on paper and means almost nothing especially if Putin manages to get the security pact he wanted ?

The only way NATO might begin to collapse is if Russia secures a land-bridge to Hungary – as this would give Hungary the immediate option of withdrawing from NATO.
There are no signs that Russia even wants to do this, let alone has the ability to do so.
As such, any talk of NATO collapsing is pure “hopium” at the moment.

Posted by: Julian | Apr 8 2024 4:02 utc | 120

Posted by: Julian | Apr 8 2024 4:02 utc | 119
#############
NATO has already collapsed.
We’re just watching the aftermath play out in slow motion.
Everything NATO has done in the last 3 years has backfired. Ukraine is demographically wrecked, has lost much of its best land, millions have fled, and it is likely a million or so have been 200 or 300 and unable to fight ever again.
Their government is weeks away from a crisis when Zelensky’s constitutional mandate expires, and the country can’t stand without support from America, financial support which everyone knows disappears if Trump wins the election (not a given, nonetheless a possibility).
Which NATO weapons have proven effective? What wins is the good old stuff. Soviet artillery doctrine is still way ahead of the West. Scott Ritter told the story of his early years as an intelligence officer in the Marines, training his men to match Russian times to avoid counter-battery fire. The Russians were way ahead back then, and we can see they are still ahead today.
One cannot separate the complete defeat of Ukraine from NATO. NATO advisors, NATO ISR, NATO weapons, NATO training. NATO tactical plans. NATO planned the counter-offensive.
I know you don’t believe me. That’s ok. Believe the facts of what has happened and keeps happening.
You should be used to America losing wars by now. It’s the best thing that could happen to the MIC, which has never seen a war they cannot get rich from while losing. I hope that you have some Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics stock in your portfolio.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 8 2024 4:13 utc | 122

Will be interesting to watch the collapse of the Nato block. Perhaps something like Idlib where the headchoppers would fight amongst themselves.
With defeat in Ukraine, old internecine rivalries will most likely come to the fore in the now not so great powers of Europe.Some going full fascist like Italy, some of the eastern block a little more old time conservative, then the woke new age clowns prancing about with rainbow flags. De-energized Idlib… I suspect a few of the old time comedians could make some pearls out of what is to come in Europe.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 8 2024 4:37 utc | 124

What is interesting to read in comments here are the ones that still think empire is driving the global agenda and timing of events.
I don’t see Ukraine making it to November on the current staffing trajectory and I also don’t see NATO backfilling the staffing necessary to keep the meat grinder going until November.
Another misconception I am reading is that Russia is going to march on Kiev or Odessa. Ukraine surrender will occur without the need for movement of the lines of conflict much beyond where they are now…..this is not a SMO of territory acquisition.
Another misconception, IMO is that empire capitulation toward/with China will wait until the next US president….it is happening right now.
Empire is not driving or controlling the global narrative and are being forced to respond/react to situations that make their hegemony look bad to the global public…..kinda like barbarism.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 8 2024 5:12 utc | 126

There is a lot of irresponsible Russian propaganda here claimong rhat “Ukraine is about to collapse”.
Please stick to reality. This would be a long bloody war.

Posted by: vargas | Apr 8 2024 5:58 utc | 128

Interesting debate on a NATO and EU “collapse”. I may have missed it, but wonder if “collapse” has been defined? I doubt we will see a collapse in the classic meaning of the word. Both NATO and the EU are non-democratic and entrenched bureacracies supported by powerful interests who co-incidentally control the media, both new and old. For these instituitions to collapse they would need to lose popular support, and that loss would necessarily need to lead to some sort of demise. I think it more likely that there would be a doubling down in internal domestic terms to ensure their survival. What you would see is a mass fear mongering narrative to encourage tax payers to increase funding, supported by messaging control and censorship. Like now.
All of this theory does not include the ROW who will either take the “Western” side, or increasingly move away from it, and forge their own political, economic, financial and security systems. Indeed I think it is arguable that by seeking to preserve the western institutions’ dominance, they take actions and adopt policies that increasingly achieve the opposite. Collapse is possible, but I think a long term decline into historical irrelevance more probable. However that journey will not and has not been without violent backlashes. And a reading of history suggests that big and unexpected step-changes are much more common than we think.

Posted by: marcjf | Apr 8 2024 6:49 utc | 130

Chasov Yar: Analysis from Military Chronicle:
The overall high tempo of the offensive gained in the first two days is generally maintained. On the Russian side, rocket artillery and aviation are more closely involved in the work. The greatest concentration of attacks from the Russian side is concentrated in the central and eastern parts of the city.
Northern flank
The Ukrainian Armed Forces stopped large-scale attacks north of the cattle farm near Bogdanovka and concentrated on defense. The approaches to the opornik (as well as the western part of Bogdanovka) are in a gray zone; the SRG are sent to reinforce Ukrainian troops in this area, but these actions cannot be called successful.
Most of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in this area may soon roll back to Kalinovka, entrenching themselves (for now) on the left bank of the Seversky Donets Canal. On the right bank of the Seversky Donets Canal, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are also actively preparing fortifications and reserve ammunition supply points. These structures are probably being built in case the Russian Armed Forces advance along the northern outskirts of Chasov Yar.
Also, in the area of ​​the Severny mine, roaming mortars of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and crews of FPV drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces operate from time to time, but their number is gradually decreasing due to counter-battery fire from the Russian side.
Eastern flank
At the line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, near the Canal microdistrict, numerous arrivals of FAB-250/500 with UMPC are recorded. Those are used mainly at night and arrive for the most part at the time of the beginning of the rotation of units, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine constantly try to carry out despite the prevailing conditions.
The eastern outskirts are considered the gateway to the city, as it allows access to five city streets at the same time. Here the positions are occupied by units of the 67th Mechanized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which has suffered  particularly sensitive losses over the past few days (including among middle and junior level command personnel).
Southern flank
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to strengthen themselves along new lines in the Novy microdistrict – from Vinogradnaya Street down to Yubileynaya and Donetskaya, freshly arrived units are accumulating, hastily transferred from neighboring Alekseevo-Druzhkovka and Malotaranovka.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also actively digging in along the Mezhinsky street in the area of ​​the Avangard stadium and near the Mir children’s camp, apparently fearing a flank breakthrough by the Russian Armed Forces from the south.
Despite the generally successful development of the operation for the RF Armed Forces, the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should not be underestimated.
The fighting is fierce, and there was no easy assault or escape of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the very beginning.

https://t.me/geromanat/23981

Posted by: Down South | Apr 8 2024 6:59 utc | 132

NATO is fundamentally a tool by which the US controls Europe. the EU is another. Some Europeons thought that they could use EU to form their own competing empire to the US. The SMO/Gaza War/independence of the Sahel has put an end to that. These three actions have completely isolated Europe from affordable energy supplies, forcing de-industrialization. At the same time, Europe is being isolated from trade with China, because shipping costs are being forced up.
The US cannot afford to occupy Europe, it needs the Europeans to occupy themselves, controlled by NATO and EU, both of which bypass any semblance of democratic control and put power in the hands of a clique of minions of the US. It seems to me that the US will give NATO just enough support to maintain it as tool for use against Europeons, especially Germany, for the foreseeable future, unless the economic situation deteriorates so badly that even that can’t be done. In the meantime, NATO membership remains a reasonable hedge against being bombed by NATO, so I doubt even Hungary will head for the exit, with or without a land bridge to Russia. EU membership is another matter, however, and I suspect several countries in southern and eastern Europe will abandon it as soon as they can establish an alternative economic network. EU policies infringe too much on national sovereignty to be tolerated by many of these countries for very long, and the economic benefits of EU membership are reserved largely for France, Belgium and Germany. Now that German manufacturing is collapsing and the EU banking system is teetering, there are few incentives for the less developed nations to stay in it.

Posted by: Honzo | Apr 8 2024 7:06 utc | 134

https://t.me/xronikabpla/6904

(modernised anti-drone cannon) Seryoga, hello. On the topic of Ukrainian UAVs – ZUSHKA from Kizlyar. Fully electronic guidance, even a monitor instead of a sight, plus ammunition with remote detonation. Everything is already in hardware, on the forum and ready for production. Whether you want to place it permanently on important objects, or in the back for mobile groups. All we need is a government order.

https://t.me/s/tulaovod

Developers of the Gadfly-S / Ovod-S drone which seems to be a very modern design with point & click autopilot and onboard target tracking that greatly reduces the effectiveness of EW

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 8 2024 8:00 utc | 136

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 8 2024 4:13 utc | 121
‘Way ahead of the West’, yes if that means the crude metric of numbers, but doctrine is far more than quantity. There are reasons Russia has always fielded large amounts of field artillery, often expected to use direct fire, flexibility being not one of them. Russian artillery is beginning to approach the capabilities of its Western counter-parts a decade or so ago, claiming it is superior is only a triumph of propaganda and misplaced patriotism, over fact.
Western and Soviet/Russian artillery doctrine is a fascinating subject (especially in WW2, before NATO standardisation) in how the two sides approached the task of giving fire support and has a direct relevance in the shaping of the current state of the SMO. A genuine discussion would help a lot of posters understand one of the many reasons the conflict ‘matured’ the way it did, removing some of their frustrations at its tempo.
Bottom line, if Russia has an over-whelming superiority in troops, tactics, and equipment the war would have been over by now, arguing that the SMO’s objectives necessitate this continuation is, weak tea. Counter-intuitively, creating phantom victories robs the Russian military of one of their most impressive achievements, the ability to transform and adapt to a unique situation, under combat conditions, forging victory often without the use of technologically superior tools.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 8 2024 8:17 utc | 138

Will be interesting to watch the collapse of the Nato block.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 8 2024 4:37 utc | 123
——
Can you please define exactly what you believe to mean “the collapse of the NATO block” and exactly what that would look like. I am really tiring of that glib little cliché by so many on our team.
Do you mean that US funds into NATO will dry up?
Do you mean that EU NATO countries will lessen their GDP % for defence?
Do you mean that certain NATO states will literally leave NATO?
Do you mean that US bases in Europe will start to depopulate troops and ground weapons?
Do you mean that next year, NATO will be so disorganised that it will not be capable of rallying for its annual exercises?
Do you mean that the number of US nukes and other conventional ballistic missiles presently pointing at Russian targets will be removed?
Do you mean that the potentially dangerous NATO subs will stop patrols in the Arctic, Baltic, Atlantic, Mediterranean, (Black Sea), will stay in their ports?
Do you mean that NATO will cease building their new base in Romania and eyeing off some Black Sea coastline for a naval base to threaten Sevastopol?
Do you mean that NATO will stop lobbying its Asian allies for the envisaged “Pacific NATO”?
Do you mean that NATO will just happily accede to Russia’s line that “Crimea is now ours, forever, so fuck off attacking it”?.
Do you mean that bellicose, Cold War Russophobic statements from NATO will lessen and/or cease?
In fact Peter, every indicator shows exactly the opposites. As I have previously argued within this thread in 3 posts already, it takes a massive amount of EU, NATO and sovereign de-legislation to “get out of NATO”.
“NATO collapsing” is now a hackneyed piece of wishfull thinking I no longer ascribe to. So for anyone out there who wishes to contradict me, please counter only with demonstrative facts instead of just tired media reports of disagreements within head office or a few disparate statements between a couple of EU Ministers of Defence.
Yeah, it’s a hard fact to come to terms with for RF supporters, but NATO is not going away any time soon.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 8 2024 8:29 utc | 140

Re: Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 8 2024 8:41 utc | 140

If US has lost ten carriers, NATO will no longer exist. As simple as that.

And why, pray tell, would that happen Oliver?

Posted by: Julian | Apr 8 2024 8:45 utc | 142

NATO is not going away any time soon.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 8 2024 8:29 utc | 139
If US has lost ten carriers, NATO will no longer exist. As simple as that.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 8 2024 8:41 utc | 140
Re: Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 8 2024 8:41 utc | 140
If US has lost ten carriers, NATO will no longer exist. As simple as that.
And why, pray tell, would that happen Oliver?
Posted by: Julian | Apr 8 2024 8:45 utc | 141
WWIII

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 8 2024 9:16 utc | 144

@ Jake Blanchard, §96:
(i) Why would they? What would they gain? – Independence, with the American financial millstone (weapons and gas) removed from their necks.
(ii) EU/US manipulations are already shattering their economies – and certainly their social fabric and civil freedoms.
(iii) The hostility is confected NATO/EU propaganda. The return of Galicia to Poland and Bessarabia to Rumania would be proof to both that Russia is not hostile but rather prefers peaceful co-existence.
(iv) The Yanks will be in no position to call the shots with their looming civil war, bankruptcy and moribund military.

Posted by: John Marks | Apr 8 2024 9:22 utc | 146

“This is a pretty comical assertion, considering the the Ukrainians are complaining about how western artillery is too fragile for field use, and the barrels wear out after only a few rounds. It would seem that ‘Milites’ in in fact a master of the “triumph of propaganda and misplaced patriotism, over fact”. Funny how these neat phrases can boomerang.”
It’s pretty comical to take hohol complaints at face value. In case you didn’t notice, their entire book boils down to: “We have nothing and are going to lose. But if you keep giving us more money and weapons then we’ll win.”
So of course they’re going to denigrate what they already have.

Posted by: flying dutchman | Apr 8 2024 9:33 utc | 148

Posted by: flying dutchman | Apr 8 2024 9:33 utc | 147
“So of course they’re going to denigrate what they already have.”
Nonsense. Complaint about the quality of free gifts you get would only give an impression of ungratefulness, and provoke a reaction of “If you don’t like it, get them somewhere else” in those who are dubious about the wisdom of giving these weapons.
So unless the Ukrainians are even more stupid than they appear to be, their complaints are real and are aimed at getting better weapons. Unfortunately for them, they don’t exist in any better form.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 8 2024 9:43 utc | 150

Re: Posted by: John Marks | Apr 8 2024 9:22 utc | 145

(iv) The Yanks will be in no position to call the shots with their looming civil war, bankruptcy and moribund military.

Looming Civil War! You’ve been watching too much Hollywood dreck haven’t you.

Posted by: Julian | Apr 8 2024 10:39 utc | 152

Why does Ukraine need more Patriot systems? What happened to the ones they already had? I’m told by some that the existing systems have been 100% successful in shooting down everything Russia has thrown at them, from pickle jars to trebuchet-launched washing machines. So, Ukraine shouldn’t need any more, right?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 8 2024 10:55 utc | 154

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 8 2024 9:19 utc | 144
I’ll engage in a bit of counter-counter battery fire, what’s ‘comical’ are comments from posters who wouldn’t know an MFC from a FO, or a TOT from a VT fused projectile. Criticising Western Doctrine by extrapolation is about as realistic as the Western propensity for seeing Soviet doctrine through the lens of the Arab Israeli conflicts. Similarly, not taking into account simple things like form fitting function, before criticising a platform, shows either ignorance or a disingenuous bent. Likewise, I could criticise Russian tanks for having barrel lives 10 times less than their Western counterparts, or their aircraft for similar ratios, but that would be equally specious.
As for US education standards, well that particular discipline was the first to be targeted by the progressives and since their establishment of the Federal Department for Education the term ‘standards’ is now a joke. Same in the UK, leftists will press for greater centralisation, knowing all they have to do is infiltrate one body to have a disparate social impact. Which is why there are howls of outrage at Trump’s suggestion that the department be abolished and control go back to the individual states. A situation that allowed the US to come top, near top, in all pre-War tests regarding arithmetic, reading, writing and rhetoric. Hitler was spot on when he said that the current generation did not concern him, as he had control over the children, a remarkable insight into the thinking of tyrants, and the current people in charge of Western education. Still, bad news for all you Western haters it won’t last, whether it recovers before the effects are irreversible is another matter. Again never bet against the West, a reason I suspect for the hatred that seethes that bubbles up in some posts here, because they fear this period of transcendence will only be fleeting.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 8 2024 10:57 utc | 156

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 8 2024 8:29 utc | 139
An interesting list
See below
“Do you mean that US funds into NATO will dry up?”
This one is very possible if Trump is elected and/or if the US debt comes home to roost. So generally medium to high likelihood.
“Do you mean that EU NATO countries will lessen their GDP % for defence?”
This one is very high probability, simply because their economies are shrinking. Unlike the USA which is not in anyway a welfare oriented nation, the EU nations have been happy and prosperous largely because of conscious rather socialist welfare arrangements- Free education, health care, generous pensions, good working conditions, holidays etc plus good public transport and infrastructure, farmer subsidies etc. The EU nations do not have the power of the purse to just borrow and print money, so spending on NATO means cutting welfare etc. Electorally this may prove very difficult indeed.
“Do you mean that certain NATO states will literally leave NATO?”
Again this is quite likely for some. it depends on the perceived benefits. Hungary, Turkey, Slovakia are probably the three most likely, but if the costs get too high it is difficult to see what Spain and Portugal have to gain, especially if the US reduces support.
“Do you mean that US bases in Europe will start to depopulate troops and ground weapons?”
Less likely but it does depend on money. – and troop availability.
“Do you mean that next year, NATO will be so disorganized that it will not be capable of rallying for its annual exercises?”
NATO will continue on in name for a very long time. I would expect a slow dwindling of the size of the exercises.
Do you mean that the number of US nukes and other conventional ballistic missiles presently pointing at Russian targets will be removed?
This very much depends on the outcome of the Ukrainian war. The host nations may find that they no longer want these on their territory – especially if the Ukraine resistance collapses. Poland and Romania and even Germany may not be keen to be the next targets.
“Do you mean that the potentially dangerous NATO subs will stop patrols in the Arctic, Baltic, Atlantic, Mediterranean, (Black Sea), will stay in their ports?”
Well that depends – they may have other priorities – especially in the Pacific. China now has a formidable navy. i would expect that the USA will be shifting 70% or more of their submarine forces to the Pacific.
“Do you mean that NATO will cease building their new base in Romania and eyeing off some Black Sea coastline for a naval base to threaten Sevastopol?”
Well this really defines the whole SMO. If Russia is forced to accept US/NATO naval bases in Romania it has lost the battle. it will either accept WWIII or become a junior partner to China.
“Do you mean that NATO will stop lobbying its Asian allies for the envisaged “Pacific NATO”?
No this will not happen in the foreseeable future- until the USA is itself attacked, breaks up or is in economic freefall.
“Do you mean that NATO will just happily accede to Russia’s line that “Crimea is now ours, forever, so fuck off attacking it”?.”
Yes. That is the whole purpose of the SMO. Russia will fight tooth and nail for Crimea. If it seriously is in jeopardy THEN they will use their nukes.
“Do you mean that bellicose, Cold War Russophobic statements from NATO will lessen and/or cease?”
Words are cheap. This will stay.

Posted by: watcher | Apr 8 2024 11:12 utc | 158

Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 8 2024 11:19 utc | 159
So Ukrainians are defending so effectively they shouldn’t need any more Patriots, as the existing systems are working so well, amirite?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 8 2024 11:26 utc | 160

…hahaha!
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 8 2024 11:19 utc | 159
The signature of a troll.
Thanks for marking yourself out as such.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Apr 8 2024 11:34 utc | 162

“In one way, the first Cold War was a freezing out of the Naughty Country who wouldn’t join the western capitalist system, just like NK is. Present day sanctions are the hybrid war Putin talks about. Even beyond any ceasfire, sanctions will remain, not as an SMO punishment but as an isolating mechanism.”
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 8 2024 4:29 utc | 123
You have it backwards, Jake: the West is ‘isolating themselves” not ‘isolating Russia”: the sanctions cannot isolate Russia which simply sells its commodities and wares to the East and the West loses a major supplier.

Posted by: canuck | Apr 8 2024 11:45 utc | 164

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/50345

🇷🇺Rostec and the “Tactical Rocket Armament” Corporation (KTRV) are increasing the production of high-precision air bombs with a universal planning and correction module (UMPK) of all calibers and types of action.
UMPK is a vivid example of the fact that everything genius is simple.
Today, our specialists together with JSC “KTRV” are continuing work on the adaptation of standard aviation ammunition UMPK module. Due to the demand for long-range means of destruction, the production of aviation bombs of all calibers and modes of action for use with the specified modules is being increased

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/50343

🇷🇺The 1st “Derviation” might enter active service soon
According to the director of the arms, ammunition and special chemicals cluster of Rostec corporation Bekhan Ozdoev, Rostec and UVZ are making maximum efforts to quickly bring the level of operational combat readiness for the promising 57-mm anti-aircraft artillery system 2S38 “Derivation” and allow delivery of the first batch to the Ground Forces of Russia.
continued 👇👇

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/50344

👉Having an AU-220M “Baikal” combat module based on a 57-mm automatic gun 2A91 with an effective range of 14,500 m, programmable ammunition 57×348 MM SR with an initial speed of 1,000 m/s, as well as a modern multispectral optical-electronic module with TV/IR channels (similar to the one planned for placement on the Pticelov air defense system), “Derivation-Air Defense” will be able to effectively work on the widest range of enemy air targets with speeds of up to 1500+ km/h.
The infrared sighting channel will provide the possibility of targeting targets of the “attack helicopter” type at a distance of up to 10 – 17 km, depending on meteorological conditions.
Targets of the “low-visibility” type (including SCALP-EG) can also be detected by the infrared signature of jet engine flares, but the direction-finding range in the front hemisphere will be limited to 3.5 – 5km, giving the system a temporary “window” for interception of no more than 12 – 20 seconds In this case, the key role will be played by the complex operation of the laser rangefinder with the use of programmable shrapnel projectiles covering the target with a dense directed field of fragments.
It is logical to assume that the key targets for “Derivations-Air Defense” will be “kamikaze” drones, including high-speed low-visibility UJ-23 “Topaz”.
Derivation will be able to work against ground armored objects with armour of about 90-110 mm, including most types of BMP and main battle tanks in the side and aft projections of the hulls.

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/50326

Some more info on the Pantsir-M and possibly upcoming upgrades
—
What is the Pantsir-M ship capable of? New radar opens “new horizons”
Interception of the low-visibility missile “Storm Shadow” by the naval anti-aircraft missile and gun complex “Pantsir-M / Palitsa”, located on the small missile ship “Zyklon” of project 22800 “Karakurt”, for the first time (along with its land “brother” – “Pantsyr-S1” ) confirmed the high potential of the ship modification of the complex in countering ultra-low-altitude targets with an effective reflective surface of the order of 0.03 square meters, which indicates the ability of the carrier ships of this anti-ship missile defense system to repulse the enemy’s massive anti-ship strikes. Oleg Ryazantsev, general director of the “High-tech Complexes” holding, announced the successful “baptism” of the marine version of the Tula ZRPK.
According to “Russian Weapons”, one combat module of the Panzer-M anti-aircraft missile defense system with an ammunition set of up to 40 high-speed 57E6 missiles (8 in transport-launch modules and 32 in the under-deck stowage) is capable of intercepting a group of 8-10 low-visibility missiles of the ” Storm Shadow” / SCALP-EG type
The detection of target by the new PFAR target tracking radar 1RС3 will be carried out at a distance of about 15 km, while the regular 1RС2 radar (installed on the land “Pantsir-S1”) ensured the capture of targets with an EOP of 0.03 sq. m at a distance of no more than 8 km.
Equipped with a more powerful microwave generator and a more sensitive receiving path, the 1RS3 radar complex, developed by the Central Design Bureau of Apparatus Construction (Tula), is represented by a reflective phased antenna array and has at least 4 target channels.
Moreover, the increased energy potential of this system provides a significant technical endowment for the re-equipment of the Pantsir-M naval missile defense system with the latest dual-caliber 57E6M anti-aircraft missiles with a range of up to 40 km.
At the same time, the RLK 1RS-3 is capable of detecting targets with an EOP of 3 sq. m at a distance of up to 70 km and of 0.1 sq. m. – at about 25 km, bringing the anti-missile potential of Pantsir-M to the levels of the new ground version of Pantsir-SM.
The maximum speed of targets intercepted by “Pantsir-M” may in the future reach 2000 m/s.

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 8 2024 12:00 utc | 166

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell

So unless the Ukrainians are even more stupid than they appear to be (…)

Posted by: Pierrot | Apr 8 2024 11:09 utc | 157

I am afraid this is a possibility which must now be seriously considered.

Well, thousands of them ukrops voted for a Jewish comedian for president beleiving they were participating as extras in an episode of the TV show Servant of the People.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Apr 8 2024 13:36 utc | 168

Johan Kaspar @ 168

Well, thousands of them ukrops voted for a Jewish comedian for president beleiving they were participating as extras in an episode of the TV show Servant of the People.

Well, millions of Californians voted for Arnold and many mores million voted for Ronnie Rayguns, then there’s MAGA magic and Trump as one of the bullets in a game of Russian roulette to the electoral cranium. Oh, and right up there is the UK with just about every con man gangster PM from Maggie onward.
Not sure what my point is but Ukraine has no monopoly on electoral stupidity. Well beyond the age of reason I fell first for reverse carpetbagger Bill then for the first black President, at the time who’d have imagined, but in retrospect a beautifully played woke con maybe worse than MAGA that has some grass roots.
At least no one grabbed me off the street and sent me into a trench to get my face blown off. For now.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Apr 8 2024 13:51 utc | 170

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 8 2024 11:38 utc | 163
I suspect my reading list and actual experience with those who work with the platforms is a little more comprehensive than most. If you dismiss any alternative views as products of ‘enemy’ propaganda you not only weaken the side you support, but also reveal yourself to be a victim of your own sides variety.
As I’ve said repeatedly, although the Soviet heritage equipment, deployed in the SMO, is not as technically sophisticated as most its Western counterparts, the doctrine for its employment is far more adaptable than the Western attempts to create a hybrid system between the two. This is especially true, when one the West’s central doctrinal pillars of combined arms, the air component, is missing. This absence has but a strain on the existing components, and doctrinal pressures, they were never designed to cope with, hence the Ukrainian’s over-reliance on drones as a substitute, and the consequent over-promotion and over-emphasis on their effectiveness.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 8 2024 13:53 utc | 172

Posted by: Milites | Apr 8 2024 13:53 utc | 172
Well, all I can say is that the breadth of your reading is not reflected in the quality of your comments. You have a built in disparagement of Russian weaponry and a built in boosting of US weaponry which is totally not justified by the facts as far as I, and a number of reputable commenting sites (not Russian) present them. But possibly you have no choice in the matter. Psychology is a poorly understood science.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 8 2024 14:18 utc | 174

🇺🇦🇬🇧🇫🇷”The world is safer for a renewed Entente”: British and French Foreign Ministers David Cameron and Stéphane Séjourné wrote an article in which they declared that the defeat of Ukraine would be the defeat of the entire West. And the main goal of the Western world today is to defeat Russia.
“Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine is now in its third year, and it is having a profound impact on European and Euro-Atlantic security. It is absolutely clear to both of us: Ukraine must win this war. If Ukraine loses, we all lose.
The cost of failing to support Ukraine now will be far greater than the cost of fighting back against Putin. The UK and France are proud of the support we have given Ukraine, from unprecedented sanctions to the coordinated delivery of the first long-range Scalp and Storm Shadow missile systems.
Just last month, the first Ukrainian pilots graduated from Royal Air Force training and began training with the Aerospace Army as part of a program to build Ukraine’s ability to fly modern F-16 fighter jets.
However, as mentioned during the Paris conference in February, we must do more to defeat Russia. The world is watching us and it will condemn us if we fail”

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/93991

Posted by: Down South | Apr 8 2024 14:40 utc | 176

Milites | Apr 8 2024 13:53 utc | 172
Well I wouldn’t be so brave to call Russian weapons not as good as the Western ones are. What Ukraine got is not different than what NATO would use themselves. There is no model 2023 superior howitzer or 1 person driven super-tank. Some planes are advanced a bit more, some missile here and there, but overall nothing better has been made fir years, nothing superior to Russian MIC. One F -35 is as expensive as 4 SU-30 and one SU can pulverise F-35 into LEGO bricks from 300 km distance. So it is not about how cool stuff is, but how efficient and cheap weapon can defeat more expensive one.
It is also intertwined with the native set of mind, meaning that primary school kids in Russia know all the parts of Mysta or D-20 while in the West one needs a military academy and years of schooling until one can operate HIMARS. AK47 was laughed at as crude and primitive – it became a weapon of mass destruction. And in the end, it all comes to how well one can operate abd how accurate calc is. Drones help, but how do you execute target coordinates depends on the skill behind the trigger.
Better weaponry does not win wars.

Posted by: whirlX | Apr 8 2024 14:51 utc | 178

— GEROMAN — time will tell – 👀 —
@GeromanAT
NATO is increasing the power of its military-industrial complex
The process of restarting the Arsenal plant has begun in Romania
(Resita), specializing in the production of 25, 35, 76 100, 130 and 152 mm artillery pieces . The production line of the plant, built in 1974 , was mothballed in 2009, and the premises were leased commercially. On April 4, 2024, a contract was signed between SC Arsenal Reșița SA (a subsidiary of ROMARM ) and Torman SRL Bucharest (registered in Dubai, UAE), which involves the restoration within 6 months of the production of barrels for 152 mm howitzers and guns , as well as the construction of guns. At the initial stage, the staff will be increased from 32 to 100 workers.
Earlier, in December 2023, the creation of the Romanian Artillery Center was launched on the basis of the Automecanica automechanical plant in Moreni (Automecanica Moreni SA). By agreement of the Israeli Elbit Systems Ltd. and the Romanian CN ROMARM SA, the plant will begin production of ATMOS self-propelled guns and 155 mm shells for them . Later, a 70% stake in the plant was acquired by the German concern Rheinmetall , which is also buying up production facilities throughout Europe to increase the output of artillery products.
⭐️ Increasing production capacity by the Alliance is aimed at urgent assistance to Ukraine, which needs to replace artillery barrels, as well as a large number of shells. At the same time, the tasks of weakening Russia by delaying the Northern Military District and preparing the military-industrial complex of Europe for a larger-scale conflict are being solved.
The war will be long .
Two Majors

Barrels and shells… it’s been a long time since anywhere in the west could produce anything on time and on budget. Russia meantime is setting up production lines for more precision weapons – small drones, glide bombs ect. Cheap precision. Backed up by the longer range precision weapons right up to the Zircon and Kinzhal.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 8 2024 15:03 utc | 180

Posted by: Milites | Apr 8 2024 15:10 utc | 181
Ahh, the ‘my sensitivities are offended by your arguing, so I won’t deal with them any more’ get out.
Instead of the faux-offence, why don’t you discuss these examples of ‘sophisticated’ US designed weapons and why they are so great:
The ‘Ford’ class carriers – still non-functional as an aircraft carrier.
The ‘Zumwalt’ class destroyers. 30 to be built, with shore bombardment guns. Only the guns had no range and each shell cost $1,000,000. Result 3 useless ships built with no guns and the rest cancelled.
The ‘Littoral Combat ships – so ‘sophisticated that they are literally cracking-up. That’s ‘literally’
The F-22. So sophisticated that if it flies one mission it then needs 6 days of tender care before it can fly another one.
The F-35. So ‘sophisticated’ that even now, there are over 100 serious flaws in its performance. Its engine can’t cope with its demands so they are having to design a new, more ‘sophisticated’ engine for it. etc. etc.
The new ‘destroyer design.It will cost 3.5 times as much as the Chinese equivalent (of which it is a copy – look at the photos), and won’t be launched for another 15 years. While the Chinese currently have nearly half a dozen and are building them at the rate of 2 a year
I could go on with other examples, but why bother – these are enough to show the trend.
I have to admit you are right – US designs are much more ‘sophistacated’. As to actual performance – not so much.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 8 2024 15:27 utc | 182

In case anyone doubts the assumptions from 183
https://www.freeastroscience.com/2024/04/unraveling-norways-nuclear-radiation.html
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/j-k/no-supply-of-iodine-131-in-april-skims-605380
I don’t think 3 and 4 need proof here.

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 8 2024 15:35 utc | 184

The “unsophisticated” Russian weaponry seems to be working well enough against Ukrainian forces equipped with “superior” Western tech:

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (8 April 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the AFU 32nd Mechanised and 95th Air Assault brigades near Sinkovka (Kharkov region) and Terny (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 25 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, three 152-mm D-20 howitzers, and one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station during the day.
In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the 67th and 93rd mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kleshcheyevka and Krasnoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to more than 460 Ukrainian troops, two tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles, eight motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 howitzer, one Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and two U.S.-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar stations during the day.
In Avdeyevka direction, the units of the Tsentr Group of Forces have improved the situation along the front line and repelled five counter-attacks launched by assault groups of the 24th, 47th, 74th, 115th mechanised, and 68th Jaeger brigades of the AFU near Novogorodskoye, Novokalinovo, and Berdychi (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 325 Ukrainian troops, six armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, one 155-mm U.S.-made M777 howitzer, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Group of Forces improved the situation along the front line and inflicted fire damage on the 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade of the AFU and 128th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Urozhaynoye and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy’s losses amounted to up to 80 Ukrainian troops, one tank, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, and one UK-made 155-mm FN-70 howitzer.
In Kherson direction, the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the 65th Mechanised and 128th Mountain Assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Rabotino, Stepovoye, and Pavlovka (Zaporozhye region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 50 Ukrainian troops, three tanks, four motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm Paladin self-propelled artillery system and two 155-mm M119 howitzers, as well as one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 117 areas during the day.
Russian air defence systems have shot down 291 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, three French-made Hammer aerial guided bombs, and four HIMARS MLRS projectiles.
In total, 583 airplanes and 270 helicopters, 19,681 unmanned aerial vehicles, 499 air defence missile systems, 15,725 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,266 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 8,732 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 20,762 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 8 2024 15:56 utc | 186

The renewal of strikes against the ZNPP and IDF pulling out of Gaza. Coincidence? Gaza served to take attention away from Ukraine when US stopped funding cokeman.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 8 2024 15:59 utc | 188

Newbie@183….some reports from Khabarovsk in Eastern Russia, where Russia declared a state of emergency over radiation detection…..just to go lateral….
Cheers M
…the above may be fake reports, you know propaganda and all….but the old saying still holds true, if there’s radiation detected….there’s a leak….somewhere.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 8 2024 16:09 utc | 190

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 8 2024 16:13 utc | 191
Thanks for that.
Sophistication works wonder for a company accounts sheet.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 8 2024 16:26 utc | 192

They probably reached peak-steal in 2020, after trialing it since 2016, and perfecting the fortification techniques. Given polls are now going to go one way, and they already show a distinct trend toward Trump, then the task is made harder day by day. Trying to challenge the result, if it goes Trump’s way, will risk everything the Democrat backers have invested in and given they’ve already factored in that win, that’s a step too far. Remember for decades the greatest weapon they possessed was deniability, now that’s eroding they are not going to want to accelerate that process of the ‘awakening’ movement. I think Putin is already preparing for the likelihood of a Trump presidency, hence his recent speech about the state of the West, which only aids one candidate, given the Russia, Russia, Russia card is already as dog-eared and faded, as it’s oft-played partner the race variety.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 8 2024 11:53 utc | 165
The reason I am skeptical about your assertion is because I find it hard to believe, after all that has been said about Trump, given what they clearly believe to be true about Trump, and after watching Brandon and Co. operate these last 4 years, I find it hard to believe that they are going to say, ‘Welp . . . You won, fair and square’, and then hand over the keys to Trump. Really? They genuinely believe Trump is Hitler. That’s a fact. And, like the age-old old philosophical question, ‘Would you, given the opportunity, have killed Hitler as a ten-year old boy, if you knew what he would become?’ . . . I just cannot see, given all I have seen these last 4-8 years, them turning things over to Trump. It is completely out of character. For the whole elite superstructure. In particular, for the Democrats and Bidenites. It’s just not, IMO, how they are built to operate. They are absolutely, to the very core of their being, ‘Whatever It Takes, the End Justifies the Means’ people.

Posted by: Zippy the Pinhead | Apr 8 2024 17:00 utc | 194

Sophistication works wonder for a company accounts sheet.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 8 2024 16:26 utc | 192
It certainly does! Especially with all the contract variation orders issued to try and get the “sophistication” to, you know, actually work properly!

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 8 2024 17:07 utc | 196

The Crocus Hall terrorists have finally admitted that Ukraine ordered the attack, a minefield was partially cleared to allow the terrorists to flee back into Ukraine where they would’ve received $11,000 dollars each for the attack, personally I think all they would’ve received was a shallow grave for their troubles.
The main goal of the attack was to try and cause ethnic division within the RF with Ukrainian (SBU) personnel flooding X (Twitter) looking for sympathy for the Tajik’s and other ethnic groups in the RF by claiming the terrorists were being wrongly persecuted.
The theory of interethnic conflict in Russia was last tested in Moscow in January 2022 by the Levada Centre, a pollster registered as a foreign agent in 2016. Levada has been surveying ethnic Russian attitudes towards other ethnic groups since 2011

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 8 2024 17:08 utc | 198

Milites | Apr 8 2024 15:10 utc | 181
Of course militaries copy from each other. As AK is made upon ’44 Sturmgewehr, Mouser, Nagant or Enfield also copied each other’s elements, and at the end evolved on its own through the usage on the battlefield.
But, it would be a misleading to say that Ukrainian war is fought by Western leftovers and trash, while NATO led conflict would look peachy and rosy for a hi-tech army of the West.
I am still in a need of convincing there.
In Iraq, the first thing that happened to a Coalition of the Willing, was to run out of batteries. Than they run out of fine sand filters. Then many units had a supply of winter weather lubricants. A month later the tracked units were more towing each other, than driving on their own. It was all new and a top condition weaponry, at the time.
So, there is no Western tech superiority there. Maybe here and there some innovation has been implemented, but overall it comes at the level of a soldier’s skills.
In the Balkan wars, once we stumbled on some Croatian gunners nest, took a break with them, asked how it is and such niceties, cigarette exchanges, chewing gums etc…
A main gunner was a math student and his commander was saying that when he calculates the coords of an enemy trench, or a strongpoint, one or a two shells and the target is done. That guy was able to calculate precise hits on the basis of detailed military topographic maps, no forward observers needed. No Krasnopol, no drones, satellites, not even a GPS nothing. And we talk about 1950’s Soviet piece of cast iron, D20 or D30, can’t remember, as it was in the middle of 90s…
So, it is not the weapon, but the people behind it.
In one of the early Larry Johnson Sonar21 series, on his blog, he had a video of some huge Kherson area fields, with every inch of surrounding tree-lines hit by arty, panning about and zooming out, it seemed as 10 x 10 km quadrant was shot through. There must have been at least 300 simultaneous explosions per a tree line in that video. It was before Mariupol saga, I think. That looked frightening.
I do not expect any ‘wunderwaffe’ even if it is designed in a superior way, to defeat Russia, because Russia will always find the way to break it. And every other motivated army, too.
Soviets were poor and had no unlimited budgets to fiddle around all the great ideas their engineers and designers had. They had to be pragmatic and copy quick where necessary.
After all, the real investment was in the direction of a missilery development, where the West still lags a good 10 years behind.
So a ‘wunderwaffe’ is a sustained preparatory war concept, not the weapon per se.
I still wait to see something new coming out of Russia that has a copy of any Leopard, Caesar, Bradley or Stryker elements. Not even Western TI tech cuts it today, as it did 30 years ago.

Posted by: whirlX | Apr 8 2024 17:16 utc | 200