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April 7, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-102
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There is much (implicit) speculation about partition of Ukraine, with the east being accepted as part of Russia, as long as the west of Ukraine can be absorbed into NATO.
Those who think that this is a possibility have rocks in their head. Russia has made it clear from the start that Ukraine will not be allowed to be a threat to Russia. Implicit in this is the view that Ukraine within its current boundaries will not be allowed to be a threat to Russia. From this view it is impossible for Russia to accept that NATO’s borders will creep further east, just not as far east as originally planned.
Russia’s stated objective is to roll back the borders of NATO. To me this is clearly an ambit claim, but maybe not totally unachievable if NATO falls part and Poland and Romania see an opportunity for (regaining) territory as a trade-off for becoming part of a neutral buffer zone in eastern Europe.
So, maybe Russia will be prepared to partition Ukraine, but will not accept west Ukraine (by whatever name) becoming part of NATO. Nor will it accept formal intervention by NATO countries anywhere in Ukraine. Such intervention will be hammered!
Posted by: Marduk | Apr 7 2024 13:09 utc | 1
@Marduk:
You can be sure that if Ukranazistan is partitioned, and the Western part become part of NATO, the “Putin Is Playing 5D Chess” gang and the Martyanov lovers (usually the same people) will claim that this was foreseen and the plan all along.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 7 2024 13:21 utc | 2
I don’t understand headlines and discussions about 25 yr old being drafted in Ukraine. It appears to be utter fiction.
https://www.rt.com/russia/595557-ukraine-kid-violence-draft/
They just grab anybody.
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 7 2024 14:10 utc | 3
https://tass.com/world/1771563
Interesting article from TASS this morning discussing a recent article from a US publication on Ukraine never joining NATO.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Apr 7 2024 14:16 utc | 4
You can be sure that the Andrei Martinow gang of the
blind , who are the same as the Pepe Escobar, Gonzalo Lira,
Duran and assorted others feeble minds gangs will always say
they were right and Putin is the greatest chess player in the world.
Let me remind everyone that when the infamous General
Lapin lost Kharkov oblast in September 2022, Andrei Martinow is famously remembered to have written the most idiotic comment of the SMO so far.
He said that it is actually good to retreat because it will
give a opportunity to spring back. I posted a question to him
About how far retreat is good : until Volgograd (Stalingrad)
Or right up north until Moscow.
Stupidities like that can be expected from an arrogant
Former Coast Guard of the Soviet Union, because he must have garnered an extraordinary military expertise guarding the northern coast of the Caspian Sea.
Anyway for Red Army admirers like me , missing Zhukov and Dzerzhinsky, ( and Trotsky and Lenin) ,appalled at the slow grind performance of VVP and Shoigu current army , it is a catastrophic situation to see Russian lives squandered for now over two years by inneffectual Kommandiers. It was for instance utterly ridiculous , even treacherous , to start peace negotiations in March 2022 when you had just started the SMO. And recently asking Ukronazis to handover
Info and terrorists to Moscow was another ridiculous demand by the Russian FM. They are at war with the Nazis for God Sake! And you ask their cooperation. It’s a madhouse!!
So far the great Red Army is still the greatest army of humankind and VVP’s army just managed two small wins in Tchechnia and Georgia, leaving huge room for improvement. At one point the people in Russia will start missing Zhukov ‘s army
Posted by: Luca Fraser | Apr 7 2024 14:44 utc | 5
Posted by b on April 6, 2024 at 15:18 UTC | Permalink
Pls. listen to all of his meaning(s) to this one of him, today:
.. I see no appetite in any western nation to really intervene in the war and to experience the Russian wrath that any intervention force would be submitted to.
But the current crop of western ‘leaders’ is too committed to the failed case for Ukraine they now have made for more than two years. For now they are likely to try to just muddle through. ..
We will have to wait for some ‘regime change’ for a return to sanity and realism.
OK- But, the thing is obviously reported today (7th April) that “both” sides seem to have reached now something like an “exhausted status” of their own, due to its fighting soldiers on-ground plus their current psychological approaches are beginning “to think about”.
Then pls. do not forget, that even RF-Forces have made something “wrong” esp. when having tried the latest some Kamikaze like OPs towards “West”compass with having its (RF) own very many losses of “Vehicles” leaving on their advancing roads by UKR-Drones.
That all of new ground-lines reportings should be worth while about what the SMO/STO remaining on-ground still is today (7th Appril 24).
RF war commanders are not stupid at all on the ground front-line, some may be – as usual in every Army (ref.to of some above reported RF losses in material + infantry fighters) – senseless!
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Apr 7 2024 14:11 utc | 289
A new UKR forum has started once again on this day (7th April 24).
That’s good – thanks to the ‘provider’.
Because I’M not sure whether the latest post(s) have been read still today, Here is the re-sent comment on prev. forum’s section .. Only listen, what’s online reporting informations of any current + future ‘RF-Offenses’ towards the “West Compass” may be causing some real changes in this ongoing West/East conflicts performed by UKR as ‘Order killers’ of UKR plus RF civilians.
So it’s repeated here, that content of above comment and ‘facts’.
Thanks for reading – understanding is a further issue.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Apr 7 2024 14:46 utc | 6
At this stage, for those in the West who aren’t actually intending to enter direct conflict with Russia, the aim may be reduced now to effecting a spoiler strategy–to produce the least satisfactory outcome possible for Russia. This may reduce to giving Russia the outcome the most costly to win or maintain.
One of these versions will be to force them to take and hold West UKR by committing to support a Nazi insurgency there in the long run. This may fail, but for Russia to win a peace that does not destroy its own prosperity will be difficult.
The NATONazi / Neocon axis–for as long as it persists in its Russia-hatred–can at least extract the ‘victory’ of making their own defeat as expensive to Russia as possible. Russia wins only to the extent that its victory comes at a tolerable price.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Apr 7 2024 14:56 utc | 7
Ruslan Pukhov, Director of Moscow’s Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, on the lessons from two years of the SMO:
From “Special” to “Military” (Russia in Global Affairs, Ruslan N. Pukhov, April 1, 2024; published in Russian on February 23, 2024)
Posted by: S | Apr 7 2024 14:58 utc | 8
In 1933 FDR outlawed US citizens right to own gold and the government expropriated it ; 1971 Nixon closed the gold window; gold was $35/oz in 1971 now it is $2,330/oz and the Central Banks, excluding US, are buying gold bullion. Without fiat currency the US would never be able to initiate so many wars-but the cycle is turning….
“Today’s Federal Reserve note is printed endlessly and spent haphazardly, unshackled from any restraint. As a consequence, the national debt is now growing at a rate of $1 trillion about every 100 days.
According to economist Michael Bordo, the gold standard provided long-term stability, evidenced by an average annual inflation rate of 0.1 percent between 1880 and 1914 as compared to the average inflation rate of 4.1 percent from 1946 to 2003.
The abandonment of sound money principles allowed for unprecedented government spending, particularly during times of war. With the ability to print fiat currency unconstrained by the discipline of a gold standard, the government financed World War II and subsequent conflicts through inflationary measures.
“The government’s ability to print endlessly has enabled endless war. This unchecked power to create currency out of nothing has not only led to an expansion of the national debt but also facilitated increased expansion of controversial and fiscally unsustainable policies, such as the literal Ponzi scheme that is America’s entitlement programs.
Restoring sound money is an uphill battle, but significant victories are being won across the country. In 2023, the Sound Money Defense League effectively helped pass sound money legislation in Tennessee, Mississippi, Oregon, Arkansas, and Florida.
So far in 2024, governors in Utah and Wisconsin have signed pro-sound money legislation into law. Other sound money legislation has already been introduced and advanced in Oklahoma, New Jersey, Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, Kentucky, Georgia, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, and West Virginia.” (1)
1.https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fixing-fdrs-biggest-blunder-gold-standard-fiat-folly-and-back
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Apr 7 2024 14:56 utc | 7
####
That is the approach of the West with everyone, even among Western nations (Nordstream, throwing Ukraine into the grinder).
America even does it within its border between states and populations. Division and betrayal are the order of the day.
The West has mastered collective delusion and self-deception. They conveniently stopped talking about Afghanistan and Iraq within a couple of years. Their ability to preserve the collective ego is impressive, if ultimately fatal.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2024 15:13 utc | 10
Among some others of your states above, but this has not been yet ever a proof of the “Red Army”, whether by Sowjets nor by the currently really world-wide ruling “States of Russia” (means RF).
So pls. forget the history here of the “Red Army in1945” to be compared to RF-Armed Forces! THANKS.
But, instead you should watch the B.Gates, Nulands + 911 JW.Bush, and its new Insect-Corona new plannings towards Ukrainia.
So listen pls. may you re-configure that msg/comment more:
Posted by: Luca Fraser | Apr 7 2024 14:44 utc | 5
So far the great Red Army is still the greatest army of humankind and VVP’s army just managed two small wins in Tchechnia and Georgia, leaving huge room for improvement. At one point the people in Russia will start missing Zhukov ‘s army .. ..
Talking about bullshit is good – but not enough to argue in your sense.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Apr 7 2024 15:14 utc | 11
On the sidelines there were rumors that Chasov Yar was being prepared for surrender. It is impossible to hold it without artillery, ammunition and armor.
There are a lot of deserters now at “zero” in Chasov Yar. The Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers leave their positions, change into civilian clothes and wait in a residential area until the Russians come to surrender to them.
We confirm the information of our colleagues that the number of conditional “deserters” in the Ukrainian Armed Forces is growing.
Our source indicates that this problem was even discussed at Ze headquarters.
The problem of “leaving positions/surrendering” was still relevant in Bakhmut and Avdeevka, but in Chasov Yar it became catastrophic due to the low morale of the army. We insided about this on April 3.
Posted by: Down South | Apr 7 2024 15:16 utc | 12
In the Izmail district, TCC employees probably tried to mobilize a 14-year-old. They brutally detained him on the street and, at gunpoint, forced the teenager into a bus.
But when they found out that the guy was only 14, he was thrown out of the bus right on the highway. This happened on April 2 in the village of Priozernoye, Suvorov community.
The minor survived physical violence and experienced psychological and social torture, Oksana Terzi, a representative of the village council, told local media.
The guy is an orphan and lives with his grandmother. As he said, his hands were twisted on the street; people in military uniform had balaclavas with white jaws painted on their heads.
“When the military dragged the guy into the minibus, they began to put the barrel of a machine gun to his temple, then to his forehead, because he resisted. And the child plays sports, so his self-defense reaction worked. He began to wriggle out, and the attackers subdued him, striking him on the with a machine gun in his back. They beat him and tied his hands with a plastic tie,” the official said.
According to her, on the way, having learned his age, the guy was thrown out of the bus, threatening him with violence if he spoke about the incident. The teenager had to walk home for about two hours.
At school he told about what happened. Village residents contacted the police, the prosecutor’s office and the ombudsman. There is no official reaction from the TCC and law enforcement officers yet.
https://t.me/nabludatels/41268
Mobilization in the country has completely failed. There are more than a million draft dodgers throughout the country. Due to the policy of forced mobilization, the attitude towards Zelensky has deteriorated greatly, repression and capture only worsen the situation.
Therefore, Zelensky decided to gradually make all women liable for military service. The authorities intend to include not only men, but also all women from 18 to 60 years old in the electronic register of those liable for military service.
This follows from the text of the law, which Zelensky signed this week.
Article 13 of the law states that authorities submit data to the register about all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 to 60 years. That is, all women of the specified age will be included in the list of those liable for military service.
Posted by: Down South | Apr 7 2024 15:18 utc | 13
@ Eightman 3
A flashback – 19 by Hardcastle
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dDuKXlnre0o
That being for a war “somewhere else”. In the west now there is no integrity to the figures of authority, but they have no need as all takes place behind a legal façade of state and social values.
What that means is society is increasingly conditioned to unquestioningly accept and defend an imposed order, one which might eventually include draft and conscription.
Sarscov2 was a clear example of how much authority society will accept. Though it was considered by some as a failed attempt at imposing a new order, I understand it more as an experiment to gauge public adaptation and pliability as well as the strength of globalist network. Profits, social and economic rearrangement being an added feature.
Fortunately we are able to speak on broader terms, for example “globalist” or “west” and so on.
“Delegitimisation of the state” or even simply documenting public authority misdeed is enough to find unwanted attention. Many in power take their position to mean that they also have permission to deconstruct the lives of others.
Any cause that can be found to further own positions and ends will be used. For example a soft voluntary mobilisation in the west, eventually momentum and conscription. If you imagine what has to occur before a full draft is accepted by the public then probably you have seen a small fraction of what has been gamed. Consider that planning stretches many months or years ahead, and that will partly explain a current presentation that often seems to be weak or to make little sense.
The result looked for is a command structure to suit those more highly placed, they will try to sell it, but always the potential of use of force is part of the negotiation.
Posted by: Ornot | Apr 7 2024 15:20 utc | 14
https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/4354
Storm Shadow missile shot down at sea
The Pantsir-M air defense missile system shot down a Storm Shadow missile for the first time.
The complex was installed on a ship, which at that moment was on combat duty. Oleg Ryazantsev, General Director of the High-Precision Complexes holding, spoke about this.
Pantsir-M is installed on ships and provides them with protection from enemy missiles. The complex’s missiles are capable of destroying targets at distances of up to 20 kilometers.
https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/4342
The Ukrainian channel “Woman with a Scythe” comments on the situation in Chasov Yar:
On the sidelines there were rumors that Chasov Yar was being prepared for surrender. It is impossible to hold it without artillery, ammunition and armor.
There are a lot of deserters now at “zero” in Chasov Yar. The Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers leave their positions, change into civilian clothes and wait in a residential area until the Russians come to surrender to them.
It seems like we already saw something similar last year.
https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/4341
It is no surprise for us that the RDK guys aren’t really ‘Russians’
There were Polish, American, British and Romanians involved in these raids + regular Ukrainians + ex-Russians who are Neo Nazis who came to Ukraine.
As usual, it is a PR campaign to convince the public inside Ukraine and in the west how there are some Russian defects trying to fight against Putin.
https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/4365
👉Russia would not be building a FAB3000 unless they needed it.
Many buildings have got multiple underground floors far out of reach for a FAB1500.
👆Masno
Questions about FAB-3000 are asking what aircraft can / will carry them, strategic bombers or cargo planes, and what risks those aircraft will face. Beyond a certain point it is a job weapons like the bunker busting variant of Iskander.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 7 2024 15:21 utc | 15
Putin is a master statesman not because he’s playing 5-D chess in a way that always reduces dramatic victories, but because he understands that his position has limits and works within them. This called Realism. Most westerners have difficulty recognizing Realism because whether they’re loyal imperialists or the opposition, it’s been a solid 40 years since realism was last seen in the west with any quantity. So westerners expect Russia to act as the U.S. would.
Posted by: Lex | Apr 7 2024 15:22 utc | 16
Ruslan Pukhov, Director of Moscow’s Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, on the lessons from two years of the SMO
Posted by: S | Apr 7 2024 14:58 utc | 8
Another dime-a-dosen liberast expert.
According to the authoritative opinion of expert Pukhov
It is worth recognizing that today the best tank in the world in all parameters and technical characteristics is the Abrams. And a tank duel with him does not bode well for our military equipment. For the sake of defeating this “American”, the entire Russian defense industry must work hard… The same applies to HIMARS missile systems, which have a noticeable advantage over Russian MLRS, and to barrel artillery.
Link to info on this know-it-all expert
Posted by: Poslan1 | Apr 7 2024 15:26 utc | 17
Spare_Truth_01…. Why do you insult me with the word Bullshit??!!
Is this the marker of your superior intelligence ?
You may disagree with my assessment that Zhukov ‘s
Red Army is the greatest of all armies in the history of mankind by retorting that you prefer Napoleon ‘s Grande Armée, or Julius Ceasar legions in the Gauls or Alexander’s in Persia, but you cannot skip supporting your ideas with historical facts. You have to destroy my contention that when you score a victory at the four greatest battles of world history, I.e., Stalingrad, Kursk , Operation Bagration and the final assault on Berlin 1945, despite all of that you must invalidate my opinion that the Red Army is the greatest of all time. I suspect you might be German and I understand that it would be a very painful acknowledgment for you
Posted by: Luca Fraser | Apr 7 2024 15:27 utc | 18
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Apr 7 2024 14:56 utc | 7
“One of these versions will be to force them to take and hold West UKR by committing to support a Nazi insurgency there in the long run.”
However, there was no Nazi insurgency in Germany post-1945 under Russian/Allied occupation. Ordinary west-Ukrainians are likely to yearn for stability after a crushing defeat.
Russia also has the option to simply turn west-Ukraine into a drone-policed DMZ: a depopulated, economically non-viable Nazi ‘Somalia’ with rubble fields instead of cities. This would be a FAR bigger problem for the EU than for Russia.
Posted by: Cornelius Pipe | Apr 7 2024 15:31 utc | 19
Posted by: Down South | Apr 7 2024 15:18 utc | 12
.. Article 13 of the law states that authorities submit data to the register about all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 to 60 years. That is, all women of the specified age will be included in the list of those liable for military service.
That’s another current ‘proof’ of being engaged in the latest desperately established ‘laws’ against ‘his’ own UKR folk ..
Now – not only some mothers will wine about their UKR-cildren but also same way as of their fathers ..?
Good luck – Mr. Zsky -the Piano-Cock-Player – wait until cutting ‘anything’ of your life? STOP NOW to be crazy even sampled Mn$ > 500 in Bahamas/Palama by means of US/CIA! Be careful due to your fam!
https://t.me/legitimniy/17625
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Apr 7 2024 15:31 utc | 20
Article 13 of the law states that authorities submit data to the register about all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 to 60 years.
Posted by: Down South | Apr 7 2024 15:18 utc | 12
So the “refugees” remain here, in za gardeen? Very disappointing Zeli.
And where is the church that keeps coming here to say that attacks on ZNPP have stopped since last year, thanks to the general staff’s great actions?
“Ukraine’s armed forces have delivered a strike on a dome of the 6th power unit of the ZNPP”, “Ukrainian kamikaze drones struck the area of the cargo port and canteen”, “Three employees of the ZNPP were injured” ( tass.com/politics/1771717 , tass.com/world/1771725 , ria.ru/20240407/ataka-1938423657.html)
Posted by: rk | Apr 7 2024 15:33 utc | 21
anon2020 | Apr 7 2024 15:21 utc | 14–
Info I’ve read is Tu-22m and Tu-95 would be the two primary delivery vehicles, but other craft can be designed with the proper mounts to deploy them as they have the proper payload capacity.
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 7 2024 15:37 utc | 21
.. to deploy them as they have the proper payload capacity.
If they (RF) would have had the “proper payload capacity” they would not have retreated and all their tanks-like vehicles behind them
Pls. think a little!
There are some RF-Commanders – still today available in RUAF – that would have to “see” like to make anything of an “example” by RF-Forces on the ground lines.
That’s somehow understandable.
But some of those RF-Commanders ‘active defense engaged’ had risked their ‘own’ group of RF-Infantry guys to take YOUR-ONLY estimated RISKs. They worked towards the “WEST” compass, but some died immediately – out of any sense!
Understod that?
Wifes + friends + cosins of mine .. Will call you by phone at alater ‘stage’ ..
Understood – sdo far? Thanks.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Apr 7 2024 15:52 utc | 23
Ukraine Weekly Update, 5th April 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-7c0
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Apr 7 2024 16:03 utc | 24
anon2020 | Apr 7 2024 15:21 utc | 14
karlof1 | Apr 7 2024 15:37 utc | 21
Info I’ve read is Tu-22m and Tu-95 would be the two primary delivery vehicles, but other craft can be designed with the proper mounts to deploy them as they have the proper payload capacity.
Right so. The other planes are still searching for a solution.
FAB 3000 is around 3700 kg and is just within 4000 kg SU-34 capacity. This extra load is envisaged for an external fuel tank. The major issue is a UMPK for such bomb would not be under 300 kg. That is a big problem for mounting one system, so there it should be some slimming down the weight, as it is playing at the edge of capacity and puts a strain on an airframe. Also the 3k bomb is somewhat thicker than Kinzhal, so the mounting height is also an issue. It will take some time to arrange all the tech impro, for the SU-34 and other similar platforms.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 16:05 utc | 25
Cornelius Pipe@18
Russia also has the option to simply turn west-Ukraine into a drone-policed DMZ.
…..if you are making book on that Il take the house odds….
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 7 2024 16:26 utc | 26
According to Wikipedia (Swedish) the SU-34 can carry 8 tons:
https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suchoj_Su-34
Posted by: blueswede | Apr 7 2024 16:31 utc | 27
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 16:05 utc | 24
It’s possible the MLRS launched 250kg gliding bombs have more potential than FAB-3000 carried only by a heavy bomber. If FAB-3000 can also be mounted on a Su-34, then it’s a different thing all together.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2024 16:49 utc | 28
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 16:05 utc | 24
Thanks for the info, it does seem like a stretch for SU-35 to deliver FAB-3000 and putting larger airframes at risk isn’t a great option given that the targets are usually not of exceptionally high value.
Posted by: S | Apr 7 2024 14:58 utc | 8
Improving existing systems in a way that can maximise the value of existing production and operational capacity looks more appealing: extending the range of UMPC kits with aerodynamic / software upgrades, developing a laser seeker head for mid-caliber rockets like Uragan so they can be dropped right onto target vehicles, command posts, depots etc. with suitable drone illumination, ramping up drone surveillance and integration to leave fewer and fewer gaps in coverage, getting routine fire response times down to seconds, not minutes.
A lot of this and more is ongoing but the speed of development and deployment is a factor in how much it ends up being worth. Implementation is sometimes uneven which leaves gaps and weaknesses.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 7 2024 16:50 utc | 29
@ Marduk, §1:
Putin has repeatedly stated he doesn´t want to occupy all of the Ukraine and realizes that Galicia particularly would not be worth the effort and expense. He also wants to roll back NATO, so a golden opportunity arises: Poland and Rumania get back their 1939 borders with the Ukraine iff:
1. Both Poland and Rumania leave NATO permanently.
2. They both demilitarize, i.e. no foreign troops on their lands.
3. They both hand over to Russia all their NATO military equipment (e.g. Aegis Ashore, etc.).
The question is: are Poland and Rumania agreement capable?
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 7 2024 16:53 utc | 30
Well the Neo_Nazi’s (Ukrainian forces) are determined to blow up the (ZNPP) earlier on today they launched a drone strike on the the (ZNPP) the largest nuclear power station in Europe, and one of the top ten largest on Earth. Thankfully there was no great damage to the plant due to Russian vigilance.
Twenty or so minutes before the attack IAEA reps had just left the plant, the danger is of course that if the neo-Nazi regime is successful in blowing up the (ZNPP) that Europe could experience a huge disaster in the shape of a the Chernobyl one or even worse. Maybe that’s what the Neo-Nazi’s want
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 7 2024 16:55 utc | 31
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2024 16:49 utc | 27
The UMPB winged bomb should have a good range when launched from Tornado-S because the wings allow it to glide like the FAB kits. The project to mate stock FAB-250s to Tornado-S rockets doesn’t seem to have gliding wings but might be intended as a kind of budget Iskander to dive from high altitude onto hard targets.
That’s my understanding at any rate.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 7 2024 17:03 utc | 32
Опубликовано: Republicofscotland | 7 апреля 2024 16:55 utc | 30
Let the Nazis indulge in their hysteria. A drone cannot destroy a nuclear power plant unit.
Posted by: Виктор | Apr 7 2024 17:05 utc | 33
I was thinking that Russia having extra long runways at their disposal might make a difference into how much weight can be loaded onto an aircraft. But I’m at a loss trying to guess if jet assisted take-offs are still a thing these days, and an option for Russia, and ditto that for solid fuel booster units.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 7 2024 17:07 utc | 34
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 16:05 utc | 24
Footage released by the Russian Defence Ministry on April 5 showed Su-34 strike fighters employing ODAB-500 500 kilogram glide bombs with thermobaric warheads against fortified Ukrainian positions in the disputed Donetsk region. Such warheads are well optimised for neutralising well fortified enemy positions, and function by dispersing a gaseous chemical clouds into the air which are then detonated by a vacuum explosive to release a high pressure shock wave. The effect is that air is sucked out of confined areas with tremendous force, destroying buildings, caves, trenches and other fortifications and rupturing the lungs of all present in the vicinity. Thermobaric rounds have been employed extensively on the frontlines from TOS-1 rocket artillery systems, with their deployment from guided glide bombs representing part of a broader trend of such bombs being used to supplement Russian forces’ already significant artillery superiority, and thereby provide a greater firepower advantage.
Russian ODAB-500 bombs are equipped with universal planning and correction modules with wing and rudder controls, allowing them to correct course during flight for greater accuracy. Despite the bombs’ high weights, the Su-34 has the highest endurance of any fighter class in the world today and can carry up to four per sortie without strain on the airframe. The Su-34 has been acquired in much greater numbers than any other post-Cold War fighter class in Russia, with production reported in 2023 to be further expanding. The increasingly widespread use of glide bombs had been highlighted with growing concern by Western and Ukrainian sources, with multiple Ukrainian personnel in January 2024 having informed the New York Times that a new Russian strikes using these bombs imposed “additional devastating power,” and with 500kg of explosives could thus obliterate their underground bunkers. One serviceman compared the impact of Russian glide bomb strikes to “hell’s gates,” stressing that the Russian Air Force “would send them two by two by two, eight in an hour… It sounds like a jet coming down on you.” The use of thermobaric warheads has reportedly made Su-34 sorties significantly more lethal still when targeting fortified positions, with this kind of ammunition having been widely likened in Russia to flamethrowers for their special function clearing trenches and bunkers.
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/footage-su34s-thermobaric-ukrainian-vacuum
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 7 2024 17:10 utc | 35
ZNPP at risk of a massive attack from the western terrorists and nazi Azovs in Ukraine. Moscow has repeatedly described the government in Kiev as a “Nazi regime,” pointing to the deliberate Nazi symbolism of units like ‘Azov’ as well as official glorification of WWII collaborators such as Stepan Bandera. Ukrainian armed forces have also embraced many of the insignia used by the German Wehrmacht, as well as SS runes and divisional badges.
Posted by: AI | Apr 7 2024 17:17 utc | 36
John Marks #29 Thanks. I would quibble about #3, the tanks and artillery could possibly stay, but Aegis Ashore definitely has to go.
My 12 step sponsor in 1994 informed me that every Arleigh-Burke with Aegis that he signed off to the USN – he was signing it off as a certified nuclear weapons capable platform, do you really want to do your 4th step with me? I did.
Posted by: paxmark1 | Apr 7 2024 17:23 utc | 37
Виктор (32).
The report, there was some damage and some injuries to staff. However it just takes the Neo-Nazi’s to have one good incursion on the plant for a Europe wide disaster to happen.
https://ria.ru/20240407/ataka-1938423657.html
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 7 2024 17:25 utc | 38
@Blueswede 26:
The total amount an SU 34 can carry is irrelevant. What matters is how much it can carry on any one hardpoint. If a plane has – for example – 8 hardpoints, each capable of bearing 1000 kg, it can’t even carry an FAB 1500 without extensive modification. Like the Lancasters that attacked German dams and bridges, or the B 29s that nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki, for example.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 7 2024 17:28 utc | 39
So, maybe Russia will be prepared to partition Ukraine, but will not accept west Ukraine (by whatever name) becoming part of NATO. Nor will it accept formal intervention by NATO countries anywhere in Ukraine. Such intervention will be hammered!
Posted by: Marduk | Apr 7 2024 13:09 utc | 1
Tend to agree. If NATO send troops or aircraft into Ukraine it will be clearly demonstrated that the so-called “Western political elite” has no understanding whatsoever of the meaning of “existential” экзистенциальный and those sods sent into the theatre of war will not live long enough to be even begin to think about it.
As for “West”ern morality, the “Western political elite”s morality is in the Sh1thouse as empirically demonstrated daily in its reaction, and in-action, to the Gazan Genocide.
The state of affairs must drive all reasonably sane men and women to drink”. (b)arman – I’ll have a large Jameson please – have one yourself. D.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 7 2024 17:31 utc | 40
Опубликовано: Republicofscotland | 7 апреля 2024 17:25 utc | 37
It is impossible to destroy a concrete dome with a thickness of 1000 mm with a drone. At the same time, it is more difficult to detect it. A serious missile will be intercepted by the Russian air defense.
Posted by: Виктор | Apr 7 2024 17:40 utc | 41
There seems to be a crazy amount of counter battery kills in the Russian MOD report from today, and 293?!? UAVs shot down.
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (7 April 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces have inflicted a fire defeat on formations of 43rd mechanised and 57th motorised infantry brigades of the AFU close to Sinkovka and Zagoruykovka (Kharkov region).
In addition, two counterattacks by assault groups of the 95th Air Assault Brigade of the AFU have been repelled near Terny (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 30 servicemen, one tank, two armoured fighting vehicles, and two motor vehicles.
In the course of counter-battery warfare, two 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm D-20 gun, one 220-mm Uragan multiple-launch rocket system, one 122-mm Grad multiple-launch rocket system, as well as one U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare radar station, and one Nota electronic warfare station have been hit.
In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces have defeated formations of 93rd mechanised and 17th tank brigades of the AFU and the 5th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard close to Krasnoye, Kleshcheyevka, and Andreevka (Donetsk People’s Republic), and took more advantageous positions.
In addition, Russian troops have repelled nine counterattacks by assault groups of 10th mountain assault, 92nd air assault, 33rd, and 67th mechanised brigades of the AFU near Berestovoye, Bogdanovka, and Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses were up to 370 troops, one tank, and 13 motor vehicles.
In the course of counter-battery warfare, 155-mm M777 howitzer, two U.S.-manufactured 105-mm M119 guns , one UK-manufactured 155-mm FH70 howitzer, one German-manufactured 155-mm PzH 2000 self-propelled artillery system, three 152-mm D-20 howitzers, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, three 122-mm D-30 howitzers, one AFU ammunition depot, and three Nota electronic warfare stations.
In Avdeyevka direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces have defeated the enemy and improved the situation along the front line.
Russian troops have repelled 11 counterattacks by assault groups of 24th, 47th, 115th mechanised, 59th motorised infantry, and 25th airborne brigades of the AFU close to Pervomayskoye, Krasnogorovka, Berdychi, Tonenkoye, Vodyanoye, Novokalinovo, and Novobakhmutovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 375 troops, two infantry fighting vehicles, three armoured fighting vehicles, 11 motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155mm M777 howitzer, and one 122mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
In South Donets direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces have improved the tactical position by active actions and defeated formations of the 31st Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard and the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade near Nikolskoye and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
One counterattack by an assault group of the 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade of the AFU have been repelled near Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 135 troops, one tank, six motor vehicles, and one U.S.-made M777 155-mm howitzer. In addition, one ammunition depot has been destroyed.
In Kherson direction, units of the Dnepr Group of Forces have inflicted a fire defeat on manpower concentration areas of 28th, 65th mechanised brigades of the AFU, and the 126th Brigade of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence close to Rabotino, Mirnoye (Zaporozhye region), Novotyaginka, and Ivanovka (Kherson region).
The enemy losses were up to 25 troops and three motor vehicles.
During counter-battery warfare, two U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzers, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and two 122-mm D-30 howitzers.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have destroyed one ammunition depot with uncrewed boats handed over to Ukraine by NATO countries, two launchers of the S-300 surface-to-air missile system, one P-18 radar station for detecting and tracking aerial targets, as well as struck AFU manpower and military hardware in 107 areas.
Air defence facilities have shot down 293 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and four HIMARS and Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems projectiles.
In total, 583 airplanes and 270 helicopters, 19,390 unmanned aerial vehicles, 499 air defence missile systems, 15,709 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,266 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 8,715 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 20,740 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Posted by: Rhymerez | Apr 7 2024 18:03 utc | 42
Posted by: Виктор | Apr 7 2024 17:40 utc | 40
If Nato wants to destroy the nuclear power plant in Energodar, they can do it. Especially because it’s on the shore of the river and there’s practically no depth to intercept drones or missiles so effectively.
It seems they have now gone into desperation/berserk mode where they will try. That’s Nato mentality – ‘if we can’t have it, no one can’.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2024 18:03 utc | 43
Standard weapons load of SU-34 is 12000kg (1100km operatipnal range) and design weapons load is 14000kg.
The limitation is most likely structural, but it is likely Su-34 can carry 2 FAB-3000s plus some lighter stuff like AA missiles or EW pods.
Posted by: averros | Apr 7 2024 18:17 utc | 44
Yes, FAB-250 and 500 is right now enough for constantly destroying strong points. FAB 1500 is a morale killer and is used for big fortified buildings, deep underground bases and bunkers. A FAB 3000 and above is an overkill currently. It basically equals to a small tactical nuke. Tried stupidly on Azovstal and never again. It evaporated many Ukrainians, but damaged 3 platoons of Russians, too.
FAB-5000 and FAB-9000 are not practical in today’s current shape of the front-line, but nothing guarantees that they will not be used.
Last time such big volumetric bombs were used, was in Afghanistan, but not for killing. There was some canyon that got widen by FABs at certain points to ensure stop, retreat and regroup points for Soviet servicemen following the convoys of fuel and food.
Syria had the seen small ones galore in 2015 to 2017. FABs defeated ISIS in Syria.
blueswede | Apr 7 2024 16:31 utc | 26
Yes, 8000 kg all together, but not on the central pylon. A standard fuel tank has around 250 kg and 3.4 tonne liquid fuel in it. 4000 kg central fix is a max on SU-34. FAB-3000 M54 weighs 3,067 kg. Add to it a UMPK, aerodynamic cone and all that goes not below 400 kg. It is not going to be easy to get them. But there are always TU-22m that can deliver plenty of those to the front-line.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 18:18 utc | 45
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 7 2024 17:28 utc | 38
Thanks I get it. My post was in response to whirlX saying SU-34 could carry 4 tons.
Posted by: blueswede | Apr 7 2024 18:19 utc | 46
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 18:18 utc | 44
Thanks for elaborating.
Posted by: blueswede | Apr 7 2024 18:23 utc | 47
My pet crappy translation peeves:
1. (артиллерийский) рассчёт – INCORECT “calculation”, CORRECT (artillery) squad.
2. планирующая (бомба) – INCORRECT “planning”, CORRECT gliding (bomb).
Posted by: averros | Apr 7 2024 18:27 utc | 48
blueswede | Apr 7 2024 18:19 utc | 45
Also the weight is as important, as the aerodynamics too. If you have a bearable weight, every non-aerodynamic payload also creates an extra load at the speed.
However, with every military Russian product, things vary from real specs, a little here and a little there, so nobody really knows for sure. The only thing I can imagine being the problem is a dia of FAB 3K is 103 cm, minus protruding fastening/releasing hooks and the thickness of a glide module.
Airstrip takeoff clearance might be an issue.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 18:32 utc | 49
There seems to be a crazy amount of counter battery kills in the Russian MOD report from today, and 293?!? UAVs shot down.
Posted by: Rhymerez | Apr 7 2024 18:03 utc | 41
Several “Pantsir-S” can do this.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russia-just-might-have-the-perfect-weapon-crush-swarm-24144
Posted by: Виктор | Apr 7 2024 18:34 utc | 50
Posted by: Cornelius Pipe | Apr 7 2024 15:31 utc | 18
“there was no Nazi insurgency in Germany post-1945 under Russian/Allied occupation. Ordinary west-Ukrainians are likely to yearn for stability after a crushing defeat.”
I’m not sure how much was “yearning for stability”, and how much was two years of near-starvation following on from mass-scale ethnic cleansing (of East Prussia and Pomerania), following on from several years of Allied bombing plus all the military deaths. And the Nuremburg trial and execution of many for being on the losing side.
https://theconversation.com/postwar-forced-resettlement-of-germans-echoes-through-the-decades-137219
That sort of thing can make “yearning for stability” a life and career-saving strategy. Does Russia really want to do that to Ukraine?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 7 2024 18:56 utc | 51
It seems to me that the value of patience and self discipline in this war and Palestine has not been discussed nor appreciated. Indeed, the near hysteria expressed here – as well as the reactionary character of Western democracies – can create real weaknesses.
The EU and USA must, must must be seen as dynamic and quick to strike back while their Parliaments and Congress howl for blood shed. Meanwhile, Putin and Xi can bide their time and build up incrementally into terrifying strength over time. Iran has become much the same.
The near obvious weakness of Western nations is their MEGO attitudes (My Eyes Glaze Over) such that their assurances mean little. A religion can accomplish this also as with Arab leaders who privately say about Israel, “we only have to win……once”.
These conflicts will not end well for the West. They can’t focus or stay with a serious purpose for the length of time that their opponents can master
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 7 2024 19:28 utc | 53
Posted by: vargas | Apr 7 2024 19:09 utc | 51
###
Not a glide bomb, the MOAB is the “Mother of All Bombs”.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2024 19:31 utc | 54
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Apr 7 2024 17:10 utc | 34
Thermobarics are nothing new, whether used in Vietnam as jungle clearance devices, or man-portable systems like the RPO used to take out sangars and caves in Afghanistan their over-pressure, blast characteristics have been utilised for decades. The big difference now is the accuracy of their delivery systems, this means that the CEP (Circular Error of Probability) improvements have greatly improved their versatility and combat effectiveness.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 7 2024 19:33 utc | 55
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 7 2024 19:28 utc | 52
#####
I have posted about it many times recently.
It’s the internet and people express themselves freely which means we don’t get them at their most level-headed or calculated.
What Russia, China (re: Taiwan), and Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah are doing is, IMO, a more mature perspective about pace and urgency.
Of course, this is in sharp contrast to the West, particularly America, which wants everything yesterday, and then once achieving it, proceeds to forget about it in 24 hours and then proceeds with the next power agenda.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2024 19:37 utc | 56
… It seems they have now gone into desperation/berserk mode where they will try. That’s Nato mentality – ‘if we can’t have it, no one can’.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2024 18:03 utc | 42
Resumed hits on ZNPP might be the real bargaining play for a freeze that hands NATO everything west of the Dnieper. The security situation at Zap never went away, it was always there to be exploited as a pressure point.
From earlier discussions, the consensus seemed to be that the stores of radioactive material outside of the main reactor buildings were the most vulnerable.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 7 2024 19:46 utc | 57
Putin Is Playing 5D Chess” gang….
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 7 2024 13:21 utc | 2
If in ten years, Ukraine is pacified, NATO divided and squabbling, and the dollar is only accepted in the west, and the USA in domestic disunity and shambles…
..would you admit Putin was playing 5D chess?
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 7 2024 20:01 utc | 58
These conflicts will not end well for the West. They can’t focus or stay with a serious purpose for the length of time that their opponents can master
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 7 2024 19:28 utc | 52
The lies and hypocrisy of the West make them so frivolous and immature. They don’t want to grow up.
Posted by: Виктор | Apr 7 2024 20:16 utc | 59
anon2020 | Apr 7 2024 19:46 utc | 56
ZPP.
I am not sure, but I remember reading that all reactors, but one, are shut.
The last one is in a process of cooling down or it is already cooled off. In general, ZPP is not producing anything. If fuel is out of the rods, if there is no reaction ongoing, and diesel power works ..whatever Ukrainians are thinking they will achieve is just attracting more bombs, missiles and destruction on their heads with their stupid deeds.
But a new Chernobil, whatever they manage to throw on ZPP will not occur – at the worst a minor pollution, if they hit spent fuel storage, that is in the rather heavily reinforced pools and under the 12 meters water, anyway.
There were several panic days when the dam broke, but it has been explained and here and everywhere else. No fear.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 20:17 utc | 60
I can continue with the corrosive effects of this lack of patience and focus with many examples. The West kept adding ‘wunderwaffen’ in steps – that all failed. Had they been done all at once – without distraction – Ukraine might be winning. (Look, a squirrel !!!!)
The US/EU needs QUICK results. Sending the French will do it (Nope). Creating a wedge between Shoigu and Putin will work (nope). Russia will collapse (nope), China will collapse (nope) Sanctions will work (nope)
No one needs to think that Putin plays 5-D chess. He doesn’t need to. It’s not that he’s so brilliant, it’s that the West behaves as scatterbrained and superficial. And culturally, they can’t stop.
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 7 2024 20:28 utc | 61
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/32611
Video from Zhenya Poddubny, which was taken from the phone of an American mercenary who took part in hostilities as part of the Main Intelligence Directorate.
The footage was filmed in the village of Kozinka, Belgorod region, where their group was hiding in the houses of residents. In the end, the group began to be covered, and in the end almost everyone was destroyed.
By the way, at the beginning of the attack on the Belgorod and Kursk regions, I already said that in the first days the core of the groups was made up of foreign mercenaries.
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/32617
Zelensky gave an interview and said interesting things.
According to him, the negative narrative of mobilization in Ukraine was created by the Russian media in order to influence the West. As he said, now the West is asking him “why do you need weapons if you have no desire to fight?”
In addition, he stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot carry out rotation.
Everyone will die, apparently.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 7 2024 20:34 utc | 62
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 20:17 utc | 59
Thanks for the update, we’ll just have to wait to see how it turns out.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 7 2024 20:34 utc | 63
No one needs to think that Putin plays 5-D chess. He doesn’t need to. It’s not that he’s so brilliant, it’s that the West behaves as scatterbrained and superficial. And culturally, they can’t stop.
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 7 2024 20:28 utc | 60
That Russia could even stand up to NATO, amd survive sanctions is a miracle…
…a miracle like when a woman claims her prayers to God cured her cancer, after a surgeon cut it out.
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 7 2024 20:39 utc | 64
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 7 2024 13:21 utc | 2
Another comment by someone who has no idea about the future of what will left of Ukraine.
Your anti-Putin agenda is too obvious.
Posted by: Naive | Apr 7 2024 20:48 utc | 65
Why should Russia end the SMO, it is acquiring the best real estate Ukraine has, it is eliminating NAZIs, it is acquiring control of the best agricultural land and seaports Ukraine has. Likely Russia will, once again, be the provider of cheap gas, electric power, potable water and banking services. Ukraine and Germany might need to become members of Brics.. and Ukraine might need to change its RR track gauge to accommodate Russian Standards and many people in Ukraine already speak Russian.
This show could go on for years..
Soon Russia will find a way, I believe, to deny acts of Terror within Russia.. and the SMO acquired territories. The SMO keeps the armed forces of Russia alert. it offers a place to maintain war time readiness and it allows Russia to test its war technology and it facilitates the Russian security partnership with China, Syria, Yemen, and Iran and it drains NATO resources, and as long as Ukraine is engaged in war, it cannot become a member of NATO? There is less and less of Ukraine to resist, and more and more of the forces external to Russia coming to Ukraine to get in on the action. Better for Russia to fight those who oppose them in the Russian back yard?
I can not see any urgent or impelling reason for RUSSIA to halt its SMO?
Posted by: snake | Apr 7 2024 20:50 utc | 66
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 7 2024 20:39 utc | 63
The sanctions helped Russia to develop its autarcy and its unity.
Of course the imperialists did not understand that Russia is something more than a gas station.
Posted by: Naive | Apr 7 2024 20:52 utc | 67
I can not see any urgent or impelling reason for RUSSIA to halt its SMO?
Posted by: snake | Apr 7 2024 20:50 utc | 65
I agree with you. Western economies are collapsing. Slowly but collapsing. So: no hurry.
Posted by: Naive | Apr 7 2024 20:56 utc | 68
The lies and hypocrisy of the West make them so frivolous and immature. They don’t want to grow up.
Posted by: Виктор | Apr 7 2024 20:16 utc | 58
better to use a word the west loves to throw around: they dont want to behave.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Apr 7 2024 20:59 utc | 69
ZPP Ukraine has no limits, they are ready to do anything.
It is going difficult for the Russians.
It is also going difficult for the Ukrainians, but they do not care.
Posted by: vargas | Apr 7 2024 21:18 utc | 70
50
Has US ever used such big bombs like fab 3000 ?
Posted by: vargas | Apr 7 2024 19:09 utc | 51
Not glide bombs, but Thermobarock bombs (ODAB).
There is an overview in https://www.stern.de/digital/technik/pilz-wie-eine-atombombe—putin-setzt-schwere-aerosol-bomben-ein-34590854.html. It’s in German, Google translate or googling the bomb numbers will give you a good idea. In a nutshell, the US has used the “mother of all bombs”, 9.8 tons, 11 tons TNT-equivalent, in Afghanistan. Russia is a few light-years ahead in the design of Thermobarock weapons. Not just the TOS-Flamethtower systems, but also the “father of all bombs”, with 7.1 tons lighter than the US-weapon, but with 44 tons TNT-equivalent four times as powerful.
There are reports of Russia using the thermobaric bomb, ODAB-1500, in Ukraine for the first time, striking the town of Velyka Pysarivka in Sumy Oblast March 30 (the story with 300 casualties). ODAB is way more powerful than FAB, albeit also against friendly forces in the area.
Posted by: Marvin | Apr 7 2024 21:26 utc | 71
Naval version of Pantsir-M (installed on a ship deck) has shot down a Storm Shadow missile for the first time.
Disregarding naval drones, Russian fleet is becoming missile-proof against the most sophisticated Nato missiles available.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2024 21:27 utc | 72
All in respect – as ever commented here done before:
Posted by: snake | Apr 7 2024 20:50 utc | 65
.. I can not see any urgent or impelling reason for RSIA to halt its SMO?
I also cannot see ‘any urgent .. reasons to halt its SMO? ..
You know that this current SMO has changed to a STO (Security-Terror-Attack) operations required to be defeated by rifles, any found within your household ready to be fired against any Zelensky-like up-coming Nazi-guys in this of “MY” village ?
Think about – or die! Mrs Nulands + the B.Gates Lab-s , you (US chemics industries) have “left us”.
Thanks – China + Russia will wind you (US/EU) DOWN a while – so You US/UK may think about next CRIMEA strikes!
Wait – even IDF/Mossad – Your fingers will also be cut some Centimeters. That’s torture reflected on your own tortures – Be sure, reacted “in” your self constructed ‘home land’. Nethan-Master has been killed today- ok – Settlers Go to hell.
No more no less.
UKR fashion rich like people – wake up! Take also an AK-47 daily when stepping out, on shopping the first fresh toasting French-breads / croissants available in Kiew.
Sorry, just now you may not have “enough electricity” sometimes for a while. Proceeding this E-Losses you won’t feel any hotel conviencesness – I’m sure , You Nulands + guys ..
Count on YOUR current Security Officers nearby. That’s the only remainig security YOU still have ! ..
Or not ?
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Apr 7 2024 21:46 utc | 73
32 the vital component re the npp is the only connected electricity supply that is required to assist cooling
Earlier this week, the NPP lost the connection to its only remaining back-up power line, a key source of the electricity it needs to cool its reactors,
Posted by: Jo | Apr 7 2024 21:48 utc | 74
I meant the upper UKR class people, furher still available going shopping wherever in KIEW – ‘those daugthers mini-girls skirted clothed stepping streets aside’ in KIEW.
Those girls havn’t had any ‘School’, instead looking daily on Insta/YTube/LINE etc. searching a lucky life style. ..
NOW – #
Dear UKR-Girls beyond > 18 years old, YOU won’t have any Smartphone/Internet F-Book/Twitter-X/LINE connections when ordered to the UKRANIN ARMY – being sent to the FRONT.
Okay girls in UKR, call ME here by phone +… … , I may/can help You children like a “small female” military guys.
Cheers female UKR Soldiers.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Apr 7 2024 22:05 utc | 76
So, maybe Russia will be prepared to partition Ukraine, but will not accept west Ukraine (by whatever name) becoming part of NATO. Nor will it accept formal intervention by NATO countries anywhere in Ukraine. Such intervention will be hammered!
Posted by: Marduk | Apr 7 2024 13:09 utc | 1
I think that Russia would accept westernmost Ukraine (Galicia) becoming part of NATO by becoming part of Poland. I really don’t see a country called Ukraine existing when the SMO ends, but if it does, it will have a Russian-imposed government at every level.
Posted by: Honzo | Apr 7 2024 22:12 utc | 77
What with the recent Moscow Crocus terrorist attack; added to all the civilian assasinations and other civilian targetting; plus Kiev’s latest multiple drone attack on ZNPP (they hit a lunchroom, killing some??? number of employees); I find it interesting that the SMO has not been officially augmented into a Counter Terrorism Operation. Sure, it would take a Putin + Duma legal redefinition, and I reckon there’d be a LOT of public support for it. So why not yet?
One wonders if there will ever be a straw which breaks the camel’s back for the Duma to approve an augmentation of the SMO into a CTO. It would then become a SMOCTO! I can still clearly see why RF does not want to call it a war, nor WANT to prosecute one all over Ukraine.
Yes, they all amount to another (fuzzy, undefined) series of redlines being crossed without sizeable retaliation. But RF must have very good reasons not to do so. I don’t believe it’s because “Putin is a pussy”. There must be more, politically to it, because *tactically* it doesn’t make a lot of difference. The general and precision missile strikes on terrorist bases will just continue day by day; Zelensky will continue be left alone; territory will keep moving westward.
So it is indeed puzzling what strategic reasons the Kremlin has against ramping up to a CTO … in name and/or operational license.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 7 2024 22:20 utc | 78
..would you admit Putin was playing 5D chess?
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 7 2024 20:01 utc | 57
Putin seems to be playing something more along the lines of Go.
Posted by: Honzo | Apr 7 2024 22:21 utc | 79
What happens to NATO when Russian color revolutions flip a few of their governments. Would be better for Russia if they stayed in NATO.
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 7 2024 22:22 utc | 80
@US/UKGER best humanity guys :
HELP:
The future ASYL-problem is no more a national thinking-style problem.
Listen:
From now on, even the mostly very pretty Ukranian Girls (Patry girls from Kiew?) will be drafted to its ‘regular” Ukranian Army Services. How does that work – without money under the table?
Have ever heard a girl’s firing an AK-weapon ? I can say – a horrible noise – louder than the shot – came off her mouth.
That’s the new UKRANIAN YOUTH, being educated for the next 3 years.
UKRANIA – go on!
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Apr 7 2024 22:22 utc | 81
re: UWDude | Apr 7 2024 22:22 utc | 79
I didn’t realize Russia had been a member of NATO.
Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 7 2024 22:24 utc | 82
Of course, this is in sharp contrast to the West, particularly America, which wants everything yesterday, and then once achieving it, proceeds to forget about it in 24 hours and then proceeds with the next power agenda.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 7 2024 19:37 utc | 55
I would say that the west NEEDS everything yesterday. That is built into the structure of capitalism. The mini-capitalist geezers in my neck of the wood say ‘I’d rather have a fast nickel than a slow dime.’ This is an expression of the nature of the compounding nature of capitalist accumulation and concentration, which has reached such extremes now that the whole concept of realizing profit through sales is coming unglued.
Posted by: Honzo | Apr 7 2024 22:25 utc | 83
“Western Ukraine” as a nation could flip into the Russian sphere in the next ten years.
The ARVN fought well against the Viet Cong and NVA, didnt mean the people of South Vietnam were staunchly pro-America.
In ten years, the world may very well be a different place, in regards to who can hand out the most spankings and goodies.
The “strong hatred of Russia” is being bombed away, and it is exaggerated any way, the millions who have fled being proof. If they hated Russia and Russian so much, they would have been overjoyed at the chance to fight.
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 7 2024 22:28 utc | 84
UWDude | Apr 7 2024 22:22 utc | 79
Is this lost in a translation? What NATO Russia was in? Certainly not on this planet.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 22:39 utc | 85
“UWDude | Apr 7 2024 22:22 utc | 79
Is this lost in a translation? What NATO Russia was in? Certainly not on this planet.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 7 2024 22:39 utc | 84”
I suspect awkward phrasing.
He’s suggesting Russia doing color revolutions in Nato countries wouldn’t help Russia.
Russia is a live & let live country that wants to do business, not own the world, so seems unlikely they would copy the US “color revolution” scheme.
Posted by: Mary | Apr 7 2024 22:52 utc | 86
I wold say that the west NEEDS everything yesterday. That is built into the structure of capitalism. The mini-capitalist geezers in my neck of the wood say ‘I’d rather have a fast nickel than a slow dime.’ This is an expression of the nature of the compounding nature of capitalist accumulation and concentration, which has reached such extremes now that the whole concept of realizing profit through sales is coming unglued.
Posted by: Honzo | Apr 7 2024 22:25 utc | 82
Amazing post and good point.
Posted by: vargas | Apr 7 2024 22:58 utc | 87
” … if NATO falls part … ”
Posted by: Marduk | Apr 7 2024 13:09 utc | 1
—-
I see all such talk as wishful-thinking nonsense. Yes, everybody knows that NATO is getting more dysfunctional by the day … ***OR IS IT, REALLY?*** Sure, there are some admin disagreements. But it is a looooong way from admin and weapon disintegration. All such believers in NATO’s impending fall need to realise that every branch of every EU state has sworn it will not “fail or weaken” They fear, they rightly know, that such an outcome is a massive loss by the west. It.just.will.not.happen.
In truth, all NATO has to do to “win” is to keep its offices open; keep a command structure; keep a list of members; keep shuffling its weapons hither and thither; keep some troops in some bases; and, to appease Russia say — “Well, we never really said Ukraine could actually join NATO. We just said it might hapoen one day”. Then the fireless dragon can just muddle along with its 2 new members and internal strife, occasionally issuing bombastic anti-Russian statements till kingdom come.
I just can’t see the dissolution of NATO, ever — even short of an RF war with them. Ha, every missile that RF fires is all the justification EU/NATO needs to keep justifying its paper tiger existence. It ain’t gunna go away, cos it has a self perpetuating raison d’etre.
Another factor is that what Putin REALLY REALLY WANTS, long term, is a whole new East European Security Framework, which works best for the peace of all countries. But as long as NATO exists, that can never happen. All this is unarguably a strategic win for the west and loss for RF.
The only wildcard which might upset NATO’s applecart is a Pres Trump atrophying it through less US funding. But I don’t really see that happening (i) because the EU is a trade and MIC cash cow, and (ii) because the deep state would thwart him ad infinitum, (iii) a loss for NATO would be a loss for the US.
So, in my reasoning, NATO is here to stay, albeit somewhat humiliated by their wet-lettuce-leaf assault on Russia.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 7 2024 22:58 utc | 88
Would be better for Russia if they stayed in NATO.
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 7 2024 22:22 utc | 79
Yes, well clearly. But ain’t ever gunna happen. Russia asked in 1991, and again in 2000, and 2005, and 2010, but was told to fuck off. Clinton once said “Possible, feasible”, but was overruled by deep state. US/UK/NATO *NEED* their bad boy Russua to be the perpetual enemy. It’s an intractable hatred which NATO represents to the core.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 7 2024 23:07 utc | 89
If true this seems big. Is this new and/or true?
https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1777075163638411699
🚨🇷🇺 BREAKING: MOSCOW CONCERT ATTACKERS TESTIFY THEY WERE PAID BY UKRAINE
Testimonies reveal Ukraine’s clearance of a minefield near the Russian border ahead of an escape following a massacre.
Terrorists were instructed to head to Kiev upon entry into Ukraine and were assured compensation of nearly $11,000 each for their involvement in the attack.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 7 2024 23:21 utc | 90
“…The only wildcard which might upset NATO’s applecart is a Pres Trump atrophying it through less US funding…” Jake Blanchard | Apr 7 2024 22:58 utc | 87
No. The threat to NATO lies in the disintegration of the underlying Atlantic Alliance: Europe is increasingly suffering from its relationship with the US and from the US standing in the way of countries entering into mutually profitable trade and other relations with their eurasian neighbours.
And this is going to lead to, one by one, divorces from the US and therefore NATO. Germany, for example, is watching its carefully re-built economy slowly collapsing because it can no longer get access either to Russian energy or markets,
France laments the loss of its major position as a weapons manufacturer and supplier- instead it is forced to buy US arms and pay monopoly prices for them. It also regards the US as the rival which undermined its positions in Africa.
As to the UK, the alliance between its ruling class and that of the US is so deep and unbreakable that it has willingly presided over the dismantling of the British economy- it has transferred its economic interests, including its capital off-shore. Britain is the living dictionary definition of a country with a ruling class full of hatred for the population as a whole and ready to consign its members to a future of falling living standards and approaching beggary. The time is coming when the British people will throw out the collaborators’ phony party system and install authentic representatives of its real interests in power.
Anyone who caught Galloway’s MOATS monologue today, in which he outlined a classic populist programme as that of the Workers Party will realise that this process is under weigh.
And similar scenarios exist throughout Europe: NATO like the EU is the a project of the current political classes it will last as long as they can retain power and not a moment more.
Because getting rid of NATO is part of the price Europe will have to pay to return to prosperity and to get value from those human and material assets which the US treats with jealous contempt.
Posted by: bevin | Apr 7 2024 23:22 utc | 91
So dear guys above, please let “The Russians” be as they are today, for another furure ‘while’ since 1991.
That’s their right – including newly selected its Donbass, Luhansk, Odessa regions etc.
Moldova is getting a new US/NATO hotspot now (troops newly stationed there. Ever have noticed that kind of US/RF war?
China is newly being ‘punished’ on ‘helping’ Russia by any sanction means.
Same as India is punished on the same way.
What do you think, Dear American USA’s folk, would be the best way to come out of this self-degrading spiral onging against your own interests, rather than follow the very deep state guys like Nuland’s Fam., Hunter-Biden’s Fam, B.Gates, Old man Soros (ever heard of them).
Okay – all that’s may be known til today.
Suggestion here – as some external other Front-Line reporters have commented:
Russia (RF), do not make operational failures that would cost your own batallions a further new losses of material + men power (hence more dead RF-Soldiers than “needed” )!
RF Commanders on ground: Think about how to use technical means more often then throwing your comrades into an open fire ‘offensive’ operation.
Thanks – Officers of RF. Awaiting a next more defensive like orders is always the best way to reduce your own losses.
Make the enemy feel the same like you’ve experienced:
Fire Cluster + Flame rounds above the Ukranian/NAZI defense belts, as much you (RF commanders) just have available to fire.
Then please, only after having all burned-down of Ukr/Nazis, may go to the “WEST Compass” direction – but NOT before having cleared your foot-steps 5m ahead due to mines all over going your West-Path.
Means finally: RF is not so stupid or weak positioned as someone’s Generals (like Mr.Z’s) may think.
Go 1 ksqm towards holy West region, then retreat the same way back to origin.
That’s the best strategy, the RF Forces have realized last couple of months on the ground-fields, believe.
Wait – plus observe what’s going after a small peak into the assumed enemy’s heart (but not the electricity power).
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Apr 7 2024 23:32 utc | 92
“rumors that Chasov Yar was being prepared for surrender”
Sounds like the classic “about to collapse” tease we’ve had for several months now. Too bad, we can’t even get them to abandon Berdichi. Heck, Russians got .01% territory AFTER the Ukrops were supposedly in disarray post Avdiivka.
I’ll go based off of what we see. If there is really about to be a collapse, it will get here. But I’m not falling for the perennial tease. This is a two year old war, with lines barely moving right now. Sure…if “muh attrition” has secretly hollowed out the Ukrops we will find out. But I sure don’t trust the hopium/copium wishcasters from Telegram. (From either side.)
Seen this hopium wishcasting before from the Q-tards. How did that work out?
Posted by: Anonymous | Apr 7 2024 23:36 utc | 93
Posted by: Honzo | Apr 7 2024 22:12 utc | 76
The preferable choice is probably Ukraine being carved up. US will probably want to create a Nato protectorate out of the Lwow oblast, not join it into Poland.
Keeping it separately enables the notion of ‘independent Ukraine’ regardless even if it were a post stamp sized thing. Joining it to Poland removes Ukraine as a separate plausible deniability entity for Nato. Thereon after every attack from rump Ukraine will be Nato attack.
That is politics. Then there’s the military issue where Nato can’t setup any permanent installations in rump Ukraine. Russia will simply observe whatever Nato tries to build, and when they finish any large (expensive) installation like an airbase, military base or training camp, will obliterate it with long range strikes.
So Ukraine will remain open-ended for quite a while longer. At this point, west is on the losing end as long as Russia keeps things tight, organized and efficiently blowing up west’s stuff.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 7 2024 23:41 utc | 94
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 7 2024 23:21 utc | 89
BREAKING: MOSCOW CONCERT ATTACKERS TESTIFY THEY WERE PAID BY UKRAINE
I’m guessing the guy wanted to keep his other ear.
There is much (implicit) speculation about partition of Ukraine, with the east being accepted as part of Russia, as long as the west of Ukraine can be absorbed into NATO.
Those who think that this is a possibility have rocks in their head. Russia has made it clear from the start that Ukraine will not be allowed to be a threat to Russia. Implicit in this is the view that Ukraine within its current boundaries will not be allowed to be a threat to Russia. From this view it is impossible for Russia to accept that NATO’s borders will creep further east, just not as far east as originally planned.
Russia’s stated objective is to roll back the borders of NATO. To me this is clearly an ambit claim, but maybe not totally unachievable if NATO falls part and Poland and Romania see an opportunity for (regaining) territory as a trade-off for becoming part of a neutral buffer zone in eastern Europe.
So, maybe Russia will be prepared to partition Ukraine, but will not accept west Ukraine (by whatever name) becoming part of NATO. Nor will it accept formal intervention by NATO countries anywhere in Ukraine. Such intervention will be hammered!
Posted by: Marduk | Apr 7 2024 13:09 utc | 1
As i said at the end of the last thread…
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 7 2024 2:24 utc | 215
No problem
https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2024/04/05/news/ingresso_nato_ucraina_russia-422425005/amp/
Posted by: Down South | Apr 7 2024 7:03 utc | 238
Thank you very much!
But they’re still high on Hopium.
Crimea plus the now russian oblasts was on the table 2 years ago, but NEVER with the rest in NATO.
Now the RF has a cutting edge 5 times bigger 600k vs 120k (not considering other qualitative advancements), this proposal will never do.
If they hold a stump of Ukraine to pay the bills they’re lucky, and I think they know Trump knows what is a possible deal and what is an impossible deal. Hope Putin knows and holds.
If they throw the entire 18-26 generation into the fray they can only buy a year at most, even less can be said of NATO European assets (and if the US tried a deployment the atlantic fishes would have plenty of new (if sometimes radioactive from the reactors, not nukes) real estate and food.
On the other hand the US is risking a perfect storm of synchronicity, Ukraine+Middle East+Taiwan+South Korea could be the question with no answer for them, but 2024/2025 seems more of a moment for France to lose Africa. I’d bet on 2040 for a US debacle.
But that’s my 2 cents….
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 7 2024 22:34 utc | 305
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 7 2024 23:45 utc | 96
The question is: are Poland and Rumania agreement capable?
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 7 2024 16:53 utc | 29
I think you’re dreaming if you think ANY country could/would ever withdraw from NATO!
(i) Why would they? What would they gain? Plus, Russia would have to “own” the whole of west Ukraine to dangle that carrot, which they are far far from owning. R & P both currently have those security agreement thingies with Kiev.
(ii) They would have their economies shattered by EU/US manipulations if they even think about upsetting the status quo.
(iii) There is nothing but hostility presently between Romania and Poland and Russia. Detente would be decades away.
(iv) And the only way that Aegis and the like ever arrive and leave anywhere is if the Yanks say so. Thus the only way that might ever happen is via some far off future Arms Reduction Treaty between Moscow and Washington … and the only way that might ever happen is through an equal and opposite threat against the US .. eg Cuban missiles! I can’t see a few phone calls with nicey nicey requests by Moscow with hidden backroom deals resolving the NATO/US/Romanian/Polish/Aegis issues.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Apr 7 2024 23:52 utc | 97
Eventually all of the West wunderfluffe weapons will be effectively countered by Russians.
Russia’s only problem is they can’t build them fast and many enough.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240407/pantsir-m-russian-warships-do-it-all-air-defense-shell-1117792920.html
Posted by: Surferket | Apr 8 2024 0:01 utc | 98
Jake Blanchard | Apr 7 2024 23:52 utc | 96
Jake…Jake clearly you have NO idea how the destruction of the EU or NATO can come about. There are so many different scenarios in which it can occur. For starters, a massive red flag is flashing in the us govt. right now as billions of new dollars to run that obscenely corrupt entity are entirely created by short term T-bills and not medium and long term bonds. This is seriously inflationary and a sign that they don’t want the us 10-year bond to exponentially rise in yields and basically implode/default the whole City of London proxy experiment. EVERYONE can see it except the brain-washed little people of the americas and europe!! Got gold??
Posted by: bisfugged | Apr 8 2024 0:20 utc | 99
Dima:
-Russia is making progress around the landfill at Belogorovka
-Russia made progress in eastern part of Chasov Yar – AFU positions identified and bombed
-Also activation on the Kurdumyivka area, which along with Klescheva have become untenable for AFU after losing Ivanovske
-Avdeevka west front a mixed bag – AFU seems to have a large presence of FPV drones, but RUAF is hitting AFU artillery systems en masse all over the Avdeevka and South Donetsk front (Maryinka, Novomikhalovka area)
-SAMP-T or NASAMS air defense system hit in Odessa, and supposedly a naval drone assembly location
-Russia started using the surface and sub fleet again to launch strikes in Ukraine
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 8 2024 0:26 utc | 100