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April 3, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-096
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New to RT
1) Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, reports that new information has emerged about the preparation of a French military contingent. According to the diplomat, the French military could be put on standby for operations in Ukraine as early as April:
“For this purpose, in early March, the command of the French Foreign Legion approved the composition of a battalion-tactical group of approximately 1,500 people. It is expected that the group will be put into full combat readiness in April to head to the Ukrainian theater of operations.”
Already on March 19, Sergei Naryshkin, the head of the Russian foreign intelligence service SWR, stated that France intended to send a military contingent to Ukraine, which would initially consist of around 2,000 men.
2) NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told journalists upon arrival at a meeting of alliance foreign ministers in Brussels that military supplies from NATO countries to Ukraine should be mandatory, not voluntary. The politician argued this as follows:
“We need to change the dynamics of our support. We need to provide reliable and predictable security assistance to Ukraine throughout the war. So we need to rely less on voluntary contributions and more on NATO commitments, less on short-term assistance and more on multi-year commitments.”
Stoltenberg noted that the situation on the battlefield is very serious and difficult for Ukraine. Therefore, Kyiv urgently needs help.
3) For every seven shells fired by Russian artillery, only one was fired by the Ukrainian armed forces, reports the Bloomberg news agency, citing Ukrainian officials who provided their information on condition of anonymity.
In their analysis, the Bloomberg authors complain that Kiev’s supply of artillery ammunition from the West is becoming increasingly problematic. Russia will be able to produce around 4.5 million bullets in 2024, while the entire EU can only produce 1.4 million in the same period. The US could produce an additional 1.2 million shells by the end of 2025, but only if a corresponding aid package is approved by Congress.
The Czech Republic’s initiative to supply Ukraine through global ammunition purchases has also not been very successful so far, Bloomberg continued. Accordingly, negotiations between Great Britain and Japan over ammunition purchases have “stalled”. Meanwhile, Brazil has rejected requests from European countries to supply ammunition to Ukraine, Bloomberg reports, citing officials from both sides.
Analysis:
The fighting in Donbass has taken a strategic pause and is waiting for the summer
. “No, the fighting continues, tactical movements are being carried out, but in general the Armed Forces of Ukraine rely on burning their reserves in crazy counterattacks. And the Russian army is destroying those who survive these counterattacks, ”says the author of several books about Donbass, member of the Union of Writers of Russia Oleg Izmailov.
Both sides are stockpiling and stockpiling their ammunition. Or rather, the Russian army is saving and tightening up, while the Ukrainian army is on its last legs and is really looking forward to the help of the West, without which it would have long been pushed back at least to Dnepropetrovsk,” believes Izmailov.
In his opinion, it is hardly worth waiting until May – June for a special activation at the front. But there is no doubt that Brussels will push Ukrainian forces to carry out suicide attacks this summer. Simply because it is no longer possible for NATO to end the war without a serious defeat.
“It’s like riding a bike: while you’re pedaling, you’re going, and when you stop, you’re falling,” says the author.
Now the front line from Krasnohorivka to Berdychi near Avdeevka and from Kleshcheevka to Bogdanovka near Artyomovsk has stabilized, writes “Donbass Decides”.
Much will depend on how quickly the issue of the liberation of Kupiansk and Krasny Liman is resolved.
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 12:57 utc | 1
Macron told the US and NATO that their involvement would not be necessary if French troops were hit in Ukraine.
This was reported by the Wall Street Journal, citing sources.
This is how the French president responded to Washington’s objection that a possible deployment of the French to Ukraine and a Russian attack on them could draw Western countries into a conflict with Russia.
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 13:04 utc | 2
The latter message says:
Nothing other than “There will be no NATO case” if the French intervene in the fighting and are killed!
Annotation :
Although it is ONLY the Foreign Legion, therefore NO French citizens
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 13:09 utc | 3
ossi @ 2
The people in charge of EU, NATO, USA lie, even on signed treaties, to super powers and peer rivals like Russia and China, and you think anything they say in the press to the peanut gallery matters? White devils speak with fork tongue, whatever they say even if true, or in part, or sincere, or part of a great plan, can be changed, abandoned, ignored, denied, forgotten from one day to the next, even from one hour to the next.
When the Putin said “agreement incapable” it covered the spectrum: malfeasance, idiocy, perfidy, incompetence, making it up as they go along, detachment from reality, self delusion, mental regression…
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to what leaders in the west say.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Apr 3 2024 13:26 utc | 4
The Nato war mongering bullies are discussing how much more aid and weapons to give the Neo-Nazi’s in Ukraine. The English Foreign secretary urges Nato warmongering nations to make more weapons and invest in more weapons technology.
Sadly it will be citizens of Nato countries that will suffer as public services are reduced as cash earmarked for them is sent to the Neo-Nazi’s in Ukraine to keep the war going.
“The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) top brass Jens Stoltenberg is proposing a $107.6 billion, five-year military aid package for Ukraine, during a NATO foreign ministers gathering in Brussels.
The financial package is set to be included in a wider effort to encourage allies to back Kyiv, given that a $60 billion US military aid package is currently facing delays in Congress.
The proposals will be debated upon in a two-day conference in Brussels, commemorating the 75th anniversary of the establishment of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and gearing up for a summit of alliance leaders in Washington in July.
“We need to shift the dynamics of our support,” Secretary General Stoltenberg said as he arrived at the meeting on Wednesday.
“We must ensure reliable and predictable security assistance to Ukraine for the long haul, so that we rely less on voluntary contributions and more on NATO commitments. Less on short-term offers and more on multi-year pledges.”
The UK’s foreign minister David Cameron, meanwhile, is urging member states to invest more in defense and increase industrial production, saying it is necessary if the alliance wants Ukraine to defeat Russia.
In a speech, Cameron is expected to encourage NATO allies to step up support for Kyiv and ramp up defense industrial production.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 3 2024 13:33 utc | 5
Let me guess the Russian plan on these nazito troops in south Ukraine : cutting the retreat of the French troop to Romania (like burning the bridges on the Berezina River)? A tragedy then a farce…
Posted by: Asian Frog | Apr 3 2024 13:39 utc | 6
About UK’s David Cameron’s above comment on the necessity for the nato member states to increase industrial production, a quick reminder that the UK has just closed its last blast furnace at Port Talbot. Good luck making steel for the military with mini mills when the power is off because there is no wind, or too much (Russian) wind…
Posted by: Asian Frog | Apr 3 2024 13:48 utc | 7
The opening ceremony for the Candidates tournaments (to determine the challengers for the World chess championship and the women’s world championship) will be held today in Toronto. The tournaments almost had to be moved to Spain because about 40 people were having trouble getting visas. With 5 Indian players, 3 Russians and 2 Chinese there was some speculation that there was a political problem. But everything was resolved with a day to spare:
Candidates to Take Place
One of those getting a visa was FIDE President Arkady Dvorkovich Who is a former Deputy Prime Minister of Russia. Since our Deputy PM is a Toronto MP I wonder if she will attend. It might be interesting to see how they interact, especially if Dvorkovich is bringing a gift for Canada: a posthumous Grandmaster title for Fedor Bohatirchuk.
The Grandmaster title wasn’t formalized until after WWII and there was a lot of debate concerning which living players should be retroactively awarded the title. In 2022 Dvorkovich stopped in Pakistan on his way to the Olympiad to award Sultan Khan a posthumous GM title. Since I don’t expect he will be back in Canada anytime soon this would be his best chance to do the honours personally. C.H. O’D Alexander (he goes by Hugh in The Imitation Game) is also being considered for a posthumous GM title.
Bohatirchuk was clearly deserving of the title but the Soviets had a lot of pull in FIDE so he ended up just getting an International Master title. Although he aided Soviet POWs as a member of the Red Cross he retreated with the Germans. He signed the Prague Manifesto and joined Ukrainian nationalist groups so he was definitely persona non grata so far as Soviet officialdom was concerned. They even purged his results and games from books and magazines. But in 1967 Boris Spassky and Paul Keres played in a tournament in Winnipeg after which they travelled to Ottawa to visit Bohatirchuk. You don’t make a pilgrimage to see an IM.
One other thing of note in the article is the Russians playing under the FIDE flag. Fide allows this so players from nations that are out of favour aren’t punished for their country’s actions. Previously none of the three in Toronto have exercised this option. Being on their best behaviour in enemy territory? But on the April rating list only Goryachkina is listed as FID while Lagno and Nepomniatchi are still listed as RUS. Guess we’ll have to see when the first crosstables come out.
Posted by: Gerry L Forbes | Apr 3 2024 13:49 utc | 8
Posted by: Asian Frog | Apr 3 2024 13:39 utc | 6
.
:
Anyone who knows the story.
Knows that Marcon wants to prevent the capture of Odessa!
ONLY Odessa, why?
France also invested in tanks and weapons in the 1920s.
France is of the opinion that they own land and buildings in Odessa.
Everything is historically connected, from the uprising in the French Black Sea Fleet to the fact (currently) that Ukraine would not be viable as a state WITHOUT Odessa, meaning the rest of Ukraine!
BUT :
Odessa and its catacombs, on the other hand, is a sandbox game when it comes to conquering, not only Putin knows that, Macron also knows that.
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 13:51 utc | 9
Politico….
For now, Ukraine is willing to embrace his form of bad guy. As a Russian militant who led eye-catching paramilitary raids into Russia from Ukrainian territory this year and last, Kyiv sees Kapustin has a role to play as an ally against President Vladimir Putin.
But there are hazards in holding him too close. German authorities say Kapustin — sometimes known as Denis Nikitin — is “one of the most influential neo-Nazi activists” on the European continent, and that’s a godsend to Russian propagandists, who are seeking to whitewash their murderous invasion of Ukraine as an attempt to “de-Nazify” Kyiv.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 13:52 utc | 10
“Ukraine is winning. The only factor that would change this reality would be if the U.S. and Europe stopped providing assistance.”
https://thehill.com/opinion/4566466-ukraine-is-not-losing-us-assistance-must-continue/
Farkas is a big wheel in the US neocon faction.
……………………………………
At first sight the problem for the Russians seems simple enough. They need to neutralise Ukraine to stop it being used as one of the Western spearpoints against their country.
They seem to have all their ducks in a row and are methodically proceeding with doing just that. They gave up on attempting to reach a settlement with the West after Istanbul. (My belief, after the failure of Minsk 2 but I’m an outlier on that.) Now, they’re merely demolishing the men and armaments we’re putting up against them.
Unless it goes nuclear that’s that. And we in the West are running out of both proxies and armaments. We’re unlikely to enter the fray directly just because of the risk of nuclear, but such as Farkas are missing the point. If we were indeed to give Ukraine the maximum support Mrs Farkas calls for it still wouldn’t be enough.
The best army in Europe, ours in the UK, an army well trained and capable as no other European army is of sending a useful expeditionary force, could apparently (HoC report linked to earlier) send no more than around an armoured Brigade or so.
The French do have some capability but it’s geared to fighting in Africa and the ME. The Frogs are demons when it comes to bombing mud huts but that’s about their limit. In spite of the talk of “manning the Dnieper” (linked to earlier) the French couldn’t in reality even match what we could send.
The state of the German army is well known and besides, the Germans wouldn’t fight. “Barbarossa Scholz” talks the talk but can’t walk the walk.
The Wehrmacht of old is but a proud memory. Russenhass has replaced Judenhass in the Heimat, as can be seen from this comment section, but the Russians are rather better equipped to deal with that than were the Jews. The Krauts will have to content themselves with triumphantly stationing wrecked Russian tanks outside the Russian embassy in Berlin. Tanks their proxies have captured because the Germans themselves will fight by means of proxies but daren’t fight themselves. This time round the White Tiger has no teeth.
So much for Old Europe. All talk and no do. The Americans are scarcely in better case. They do indeed have a real army, large, well trained and well organised in spite of all the talk of “boutique armies”. But what they have they can’t deploy in time in this theatre. If they even risked trying they’d have to base what forces they could muster quickly in Europe itself.
In no time at all they’d hit what we may term the Europoodle problem. That problem being that the proud warriors of Europe insist on others doing the dying for them. If the Europoodles ever found themselves used as a battleground the indignant screams’d be heard over in Australia.
As for equipment, the cupboard’s bare, Mrs Farkas. We could give Ukraine several hundred more billion dollars if we chose, even give them the Russian assets we’re holding, but that does not automatically translate into armaments. That’s been shown already by such as Berletic or Vershinin. Nor does it translate into men who can use those armaments. The Ukrainian army is being torn to pieces and corpses can’t drive tanks.
A further consideration, Mrs Farkas, is that the Russians have equipped themselves with armaments far superior to those of the West and have a General Staff also far superior to the amateur night generals we’re mostly lumbered with.
Fazit: If we threw all we had at the Russians Farkas style they’d throw more and better back. This war is not winnable.
Never was. Once the sanctions war failed we failed. So what’s the problem, looking at it from the Russian point of view?
Tried to explain the Russian problem back in ’22 I think. Called it the “dangerous dog” problem. When faced with a dangerous dog you back off slowly. No sudden movements that might set the brute off. The West might be a toothless tiger, but we can mess around with shelling the ZNPP or helping our proxies play with dirty bombs or the like. Or we could go nuclear. We’re dangerous still. That’s why the Russians are slow-walking this show and will probably continue to do so.
Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 3 2024 13:55 utc | 11
@ Gerry L Forbes, §8:
Can anyone in Tranada play chess?
Will the king and queen have to swap roles?
And it can´t be black vs. white, can it? Perhaps pink vs. purple?
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 3 2024 13:57 utc | 12
“The Nato war mongering bullies are discussing how much more aid and weapons to give the Neo-Nazi’s in Ukraine. The English Foreign secretary urges Nato warmongering nations to make more weapons and invest in more weapons technology.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 3 2024 13:33 utc | 5
English policy hasn’t changed since 1694-use the European economy (divide and conquer) and military to fight England’s enemies wearing out both sides while perfidious albion does fuck all-today the Brits have a tiny military and the excess military equipment it did have has already be sent to the Ukraine and destroyed.
If I were European leader I would tell Sir Fuck Face of England to go and produce arms and supply its own soldiers.
John Marks @12
Sorry, trans women aren’t allowed in women’s chess events. Try tiddlywinks.
Posted by: Gerry L Forbes | Apr 3 2024 14:09 utc | 14
From ossi’s post @1
“For this purpose, in early March, the command of the French Foreign Legion approved the composition of a battalion-tactical group of approximately 1,500 people. It is expected that the group will be put into full combat readiness in April to head to the Ukrainian theater of operations.”
The foreign legion are expendables. Boots in bodybags not an issue. Looks like whoever is in the legion now has literally signed their life away. One thing to go on safari to Africa or some third world country, quite another to used as cannon fodder against Russia.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 14:13 utc | 15
The situation on the battlefield is very serious and difficult for Ukraine, Kiev urgently needs help, said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg upon his arrival at a meeting of the foreign ministers of the alliance countries in Brussels.
“The situation on the battlefield is very serious,” he said, noting that NATO “is experiencing a constant build-up of Russian forces.” He also reiterated that the Russian Federation allegedly receives weapons from the DPRK and Iran. Moscow, Pyongyang and Tehran have previously repeatedly rejected these claims.
“Ukraine needs help as soon as possible,” Stoltenberg noted. “We see the situation on the battlefield, we see how complex it is and what demands it places on Ukraine. We appreciate everything NATO countries have done, but this is not enough, we must do more,” said the Secretary General. “The Ukrainians need not only more help, but also more long-term and predictable help so they can plan attacks.”
.
My comment on this:
NATO (Western Bubble) simply does not want to recognize that Russia is able to produce ammunition and weapons, including jets, quickly, very quickly.
THEREFORE
North Korea Iran China comes into play again and again as a supplier.
.
The motto must not be what CANNOT be.
In the EU in the USA NOTHING is moving forward with arms production, why, because everything is geared towards profit and dividends.
None of this is necessary to start working in Russia.
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 14:14 utc | 16
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 14:13 utc | 15
.
.
I already wrote…
The expected losses (deaths) would NOT be French by citizenship.
No French person mourned them. No media reported that their coffins ended up in their respective home countries, not in France in front of cameras.
Once again :
Macron is all about defending Odessa, the rest doesn’t really matter.
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 14:17 utc | 17
So Ukie mined all the approaches to Chasav Yar, left the Russians a nice little kill box to drive through…..Odessa??? Maybe by 2030.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 3 2024 14:19 utc | 18
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 14:14 utc | 16
My take on Stoltenburger’s comment:
-He represents the US, not EU MIC
-The US MIC is geared for profit and dividends
-Everyone knows the profit oriented system known as capitalism cannot be changed, certainly in a timeframe which would make any difference in terms of preventing the western financial system from blowing up and complete loss in Ukraine
-Therefore, Nato (US MIC) is demanding Eurovassals take more debt, print more euros, and make more austerity in order to create long term contracts, which encourage the US MIC to build more weapons, as it is now more profitable to do so
-The problem in relying on Ukraine is – Ukraine is near the end of the rope when it comes to sustaining a serious fight
-Therefore, more escalation is required, to expand the demand of weapons from US MIC, to suck more taxpayer and austerity money and create long term contracts
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 3 2024 14:21 utc | 19
ossi | Apr 3 2024 14:17 utc | 17
What is Macrons thing with Odessa?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 14:22 utc | 20
I read Andrei lamenting the three Bradley strike force that pulled a gaffer and got toasted by the Russians…like, for what? Then the Russians ran a fifty odd vehicle strike force 35 tanks plus 15/20 IFVs through a three km corridor and got…..you guessed it, toasted, had to retreat with significant losses….hmm, seems bright bulbs are a shortage on both sides of the LOC. Everyone wins, hooray!
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 3 2024 14:27 utc | 21
again
Odessa, an old city with kilometers of catacombs that the French used as early as the 19th century.
Did the French (Foreign Legion) settle there?
3000 kg of bombs were of no use!
Even if Putin were to burn the entire city to rubble (which he would never do), the Azov plant is ridiculous.
These catacombs not only provide cover, they also provide access to the sea, access to the city, access to the hinterland.
Why do you think Putin always talked about setting up a special zone in the event of a surrender when it came to Odessa? This city can never be taken without total destruction (which he doesn’t want), unless the partisan is in it!
I know Odessa, I know parts of the catacombs..
.
.
If the French move there, they could cause real problems for Putin, Romania is close, they will find ways to supply the French there
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 14:29 utc | 22
After being kicked out of Nigel, these French troops to go somewhere, why not Ukraine?
Israel ignores Biden, France ignores Biden, Ukraine ignores Biden, UK ignores Biden, and Biden still claims he is the leader of the most powerful country in the world. Go figure that.
The whole hegemony empire is in suicide mood.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Apr 3 2024 14:29 utc | 23
Can anyone in Tranada play chess?
Will the king and queen have to swap roles?
And it can´t be black vs. white, can it? Perhaps pink vs. purple?
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 3 2024 13:57 utc | 12
I don’t speak for all Canadians but I play pretty much every day, I’m not a student of the game and I don’t follow the chess world but I play whenever I get a chance. Still black vs white.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 3 2024 14:31 utc | 24
What is Macrons thing with Odessa?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 14:22 utc | 20
.
.
Google may help you.
At least if you don’t fall under the censored index for Europe on this search engine.
Or a corresponding history book, keyword: the uprising of the French Black Sea Fleet, would be one approach
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 14:32 utc | 25
ossi | Apr 3 2024 14:29 utc | 22
The catacombs … Azovstal. Juts a matter of surrounding the place. Who defends along the Dnieper when Ukraine Runs out of Ukrainians? Once French troops are sent in without the figleaf of Ukraine uniforms, the France is at war with Russia.
I did see a bit of video of a French officer saying something about France having plenty of nukes to destroy Moscow and St Petersberg. Crazies.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 14:36 utc | 26
@ Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 3 2024 14:27 utc | 21
My thoughts exactly. Russian losses are not insignificant and happening when Ukraine is supposedly in short supply of manpower and weapons. Russians are either super incompetent or their army leadership is full of traitors/double agents.
Posted by: bored | Apr 3 2024 14:42 utc | 27
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 14:32 utc | 25
Generally wikipedia gives a bit of an overview of thing not current geopolitics. French Black Sea Fleet led to South Russia Intervention.
Nothing specific on Odessa, in fact Odessa didn’t rate a mention.
What was interesting was that the main interests of France was recovering French investments in Ukraine. Signed a treaty with the Ukraine nationalist defacto government of the time and territory was ceded to France.
Being a banker boy, perhaps Macron is still trying to recover that investment from Russian Empire days.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 14:58 utc | 28
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 14:36 utc | 26
.
.
Nuclear weapons to destroy what…2 – 3 or 4 cities in Russia?
Whether a nuclear weapon will reach Russia remains another question!
In any case, what the Russians would answer would be enough to make the whole of France first light and then dark.
And Big Mouth Macron knows it!
Everyone in the West is probably crazy, only the USA says as a precaution it was NOT WE, please no rockets on New York or Boston.
They incited such fools as Macron, the media will do their part as with any war agitation (pictures will make opinions)
Once again, ALL of the West’s nuclear missiles will not make the whole of Russia uninhabitable – the country is too big!
But a few Russians made ALL of Western Europe uninhabitable
Have you ever thought like that? Why do entire cities in the east of Russia have entire industries being built from the ground?
Russia is expecting what?
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 15:00 utc | 29
ossi | Apr 3 2024 15:00 utc | 29
The French and British have a few nuke missile subs not sure how many each have. I suspect UK only have enough to keep one sub at the most (if that) at sea.
One Sarmat for UK and perhaps two for France and its game over. Russia just recently tested the S-500 or 550 on a sub launched missile. On top of that it has the next gen long range missile defense around Moscow. Watching the launch of those things is incredible. Large rockets always look slow at launch….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bag2HJhcV44
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 15:12 utc | 30
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 3 2024 14:27 utc | 21
You mean the one Bradley destroyed by a mine, and the Russian tank regiment’s AG battalion sized attack that suffered the expected losses for an opposed advance to contact and advance of 1-2km advance. You do know those tanks were designed to last 11 minutes when the shooting started, and even with upgrades, they are up against fat tougher opposition than the designers predicted.
Sit in a TOC, under possible imminent threat of attack, listening to the garbled radio messages, whilst being surrounded by numerous ISR outlets, often telling you contradictory information, before making such comments. I doubt your bulb would flicker any more brightly, more likely go ping just as the moment of decision arrived.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 15:12 utc | 31
The French or macrons interest in Ukraine. The lost investments of 100 years ago.
Makes me wonder if the French have intentions of claiming a portion of the carcass of the former Ukraine?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 15:15 utc | 32
Posted by: bored | Apr 3 2024 14:42 utc | 27
Because, as everyone knows, infallibility is a central trait in warfare. Hate to break it to you, but the Russian Army is still struggling with systemic issues of C3 and fighting a war their army was not adequately prepared for. The Ukrainian’s though are fighting not just those issues, but a host of others either self-inflicted or imposed on them by the Russians. To paraphrase, all wars are mainly comprised of errors, the trick is to make less of the bigger ones than your opponent.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 15:22 utc | 33
RT
WSJ: US fears conflict will spread to NATO if French troops are fired on in Ukraine
An official deployment of French troops in Ukraine – this option, should French head of state Emmanuel Macron take it, is worrying NATO allies. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) draws attention to this in an editorial that discusses the hardening of Macron’s rhetoric recently and the reaction of said allies to it. Not least in Washington they see the danger that NATO will be drawn into the conflict (drawn even deeper, corrects RT DE) if French troops in Ukraine are exposed to Russian fire (and that, RT DE reminds, is as good as possible given). That’s what the WSJ said with reference to an anonymous high-ranking US official.
Such fears are shared by the governments of other NATO countries, the paper reminds us.
Meanwhile, Macron has given the all-clear in this regard, the journalists write, referring to another anonymous official from an unnamed country: If Russia’s military fires on French military personnel in Ukraine, there will be no need to involve the USA or NATO. After all, France suffered deaths in its military campaigns in Africa and did not ask its allies for help.
Despite everything, Paris is insisting on the idea that not only France’s troops, but also those of other NATO member states should operate “defense systems” in Ukraine, for example, the WSJ continued.
Annotation :
Marcoron can say that because there were NO French people who died in Africa, just the Foreign Legion!
He just forgets to mention this in his comments and NO media makes this clear
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 15:23 utc | 34
Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 14:36 utc | 26
Not underestimating or overestimating Russian war histories, strategies and actions, I still believe in “Crazy Ivan” event concerning Odessa Oblast – not the city. City is not important at all. Surrounded, it falls by default, no need to ‘soft plow’ it.
A respectable submitter Anonymous has a right position on the Ukrainian collapse that is not really happening. My only explanation is when Russians use 2 platoons and 3 tanks to break Ukrainian defense, no collapse can be expected.
But – raining FABs of various weights can and probably will break Ukrainian front-lines, overall demoralizing its military.
FAB 3000 sanitizes 2 football fields in 360°, that is 4 fields radius. Blasts up to 30 meters deep without the assistance of a penterator, guarantees 500 meters shrapnel distribution and severely damages eardrums up to 1 km from the blast. That said, to many’shadowbanned’s’ nuclear desires, FAB 3000 and above is an equivalent of a tactical nuclear weapon. It was thrown on Azovstal once from TU-22, with the terrible effect of also damaging own forces that were too close for the blast. An overkill weapon.
It will not be so easy to fit those with UMPK and make SU-34 carry them, so it’ll take sometime. But having those in use, sure, everybody collapses under that. And it is a real game-changer.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 3 2024 15:25 utc | 35
“If I were European leader I would tell Sir Fuck Face of England to go and produce arms and supply its own soldiers.”
Canuck (13).
Sadly like the English government, EU governments are laden with Atlanticists, who put (US) interests ahead of their own citizens.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 3 2024 15:26 utc | 36
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 15:12 utc | 30
Are you channelling your inner Shadowbanned? The UK’s nuclear capability would be more than enough to wreck Russia for decades to come. It’s not just MIRVed D-5’s you have to worry about, there’s also the eye-patched instant sunshine deliverers, and they are cunning so and so’s.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 15:29 utc | 37
Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 15:22 utc | 33
.
.
Uh..
Where does your wisdom come from when it comes to Russian problems?
Are you a student of strategy?
Or do you have a silent connection in the Kremlin?
Were you there to identify and analyze these problems?
Or did the constant bombardment of the media make itself felt in your head when you think and analyze?
The problems of the Ukrainians, well, anyone who needs analysis is poor in their heads anyway.
They even reported on initial problems with the Russians themselves, about the dismissal and removal of incompetent officers who were only in such positions because they were functionaries, emphasizing on and had cheated their way through
As for you, Stradege armchair!
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 15:34 utc | 38
Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 15:29 utc | 37
.
.
I just wrote: You’re the smart one here!
Don’t think about their strength when it comes to England, which is an island
As far as the Russians’ advance warning of what hypersonics are concerned NO West country can fend off!
But, keep it up, we are looking forward to your strategic outpourings of truths that will make every opponent pale
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 15:39 utc | 39
Sadly like the English government, EU governments are laden with Atlanticists, who put (US) interests ahead of their own citizens.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 3 2024 15:26 utc | 36
And how could this come about? Because the Europeans were unfortunately unable to stop Hitler’s claim to supremacy in Europe on their own. The great friend across the pond intervened and prevented some of them from becoming Stalin’s citizens – but in return he reduced them to political and military dwarfs who had to obey him because they had no alternative.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 3 2024 15:40 utc | 40
@unimperator | Apr 3 2024 14:21 utc | 19
It is really painful to read about Stoltenbergs behaviour. I have called him a quisling before, and I will do it again. It is despicable what he is doing. I believe he was ‘captured’ at Utøya 22. July 2011, and we see the result of that now. Truth be told, he also lied before that, e.g. “Moon Landing” global warming propaganda in 2007 New Year speech as PM.
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 3 2024 15:54 utc | 42
Posted by: bored | Apr 3 2024 14:42 utc | 27
Thanks for the sarcasm towards the NATO/NAFO trolls, dude! Greatly appreciated!
Posted by: Boo | Apr 3 2024 15:55 utc | 43
@ republicofscotland, §36:
Most of the “daring” (I would say reckless) attacks on Russia: concert halls, bridges, oil refineries, etc., etc., have all the hallmarks of British special services (the SAS and the SBS), coordinated by MI6.
It´s difficult to understand puny Britain´s obsession with Russia – as though we were in 1824 not 2024. Perhaps it is the City of London´s obsession with Russia´s vast mineral resources: the very same obsession they had with the gold and diamonds of the Orange Free State and the Transvaal. Since then Britain has been run by a very genteel Mafiosi, but a Mafiosi nevertheless. Their lower-class fellows in America don´t hide the fact that they´re gangsters.
The next wheeze the British are dreaming up is attacks from Kazaxstan, especially targeting the Trans-Siberian railway, probably the gigantic bridges over the Ob and the Yeniseï.
Posted by: John Marks | Apr 3 2024 15:55 utc | 44
People on this forum SERIOUSLY underestimate Ukraine/NATO. According to @Rybar
“Whether through unmanned boats, drones, cruise or ballistic missiles, or another attempt at a terrorist attack, it is crucial to understand that the AFU will seek to inflict maximum damage, and we must be prepared for this.
The capabilities of the AFU, which receive full technological support from the West, have significantly increased. Underestimating them could lead to “painful lessons” that can be avoided.”
I agree with him 100%. This war will drag on for years and if Russia isn’t careful and its allies don’t provide more than just lip service, they can lose this badly.
Posted by: bored | Apr 3 2024 15:56 utc | 45
I hope the Foreign Legion boys bring lots of batteries with them. It’s gonna get awful dark down there in the catacombs when the lights go out.
Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Apr 3 2024 15:59 utc | 46
Milites | Apr 3 2024 15:29 utc | 37
You’re a bit of a clown at times. Was it you mentioned one time about spending time in Soviet tanks? You seem to be a bit of a tank ‘enthusiast’ but have a somewhat inflated view of western power. UK’s last missile test launch was a bit of a flop though.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 16:02 utc | 47
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Apr 3 2024 15:40 utc | 40
I have a different theory. Europe spent on domestic concerns while outsourcing defense to NATO.
They got the worst outcome. Vassalage and a soft civilization.
A predictable outcome made by democratically elected leaders. Votes, not posterity, are their priority and their future vision rarely extends beyond the next election cycle.
The West loves to complain that Putin, Xi, and Jong-Un have ruled for so long. The colonial powers love turnover and the chaos of elections because the discontinuity in those countries is an opportunity for exploitation.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 3 2024 16:08 utc | 48
So Ukie mined all the approaches to Chasav Yar, left the Russians a nice little kill box to drive through…..Odessa??? Maybe by 2030.
The wee little green man apparently is drawn from the general staff of NATO. Any more prognostications? Amusing if not so grim, the sheer hubris. By 2030 maybe Maerica will be in full civil war.
PS. How effective are mines against FABs? Asking for a nazi.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 3 2024 16:08 utc | 49
Lol French troops hiding in catacombs. What’s the point of that?
Posted by: Comandante | Apr 3 2024 16:11 utc | 50
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 14:36 utc | 26
I did see a bit of video of a French officer saying something about France having plenty of nukes to destroy Moscow and St Petersberg. Crazies.
<=I think promoting French use of Nukes in Ukraine is how NATO intends to legitimize the Use of Nukes and that introduction is going to flow over to assist Israel with the problems it is experiencing in the middle east with clearing the residents of Gaza, and their Arab supporters from asserting any claim of right to occupy the land or to share in the profits that might come from the Israel intention to exploit the oil rich territory the Gazaians now occupy for profit.
Everywhere at once, we are seeing the corrupt powers who have stationed themselves as rulers of the peoples of the various nations state (in much the same fashion as happened in the Bolshevik revolution, one day the Bolshevik were in the important government chairs(surprise, surprise). This corruption has installed Mafias instead of politicians at the helm.. its a problem so unimaginable, and so well covered up by media, that those who are the governed in most of these countries cannot see they have been excluded from their own countries and have been essentially turned into cannon foder to advance the interest of those behind the scene persons, the Dons so to spear, who are running things. The take over of many of the nation states of the world has already been accomplished IMO.
I expect the use of nukes has been planned to happen as the November USA election gets closer so as to use election events to block out the transition of warfare from tradition to nuclear weapons? NATO is short of traditional weapons but it is long on modernized nuclear weapons. So I predict we shall see nuclear weapons soon..
Posted by: snake | Apr 3 2024 16:12 utc | 51
US and UK are becoming rogue states. According to the guardian, ukraine is planning a new attack on the Crimean Bridge that may take place in the first half of this year, referring to sources from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR). The paper itself has doubts about whether the Ukrainian intelligence agency is currently capable of conducting such attacks. Nevertheless, GUR Head Kirill Budanov already has most of the means to carry out this goal, the Guardian quoted an official as saying. These are US and UK rogue states means.
Posted by: AI | Apr 3 2024 16:14 utc | 52
Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing – Politico
“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.
…
“Don’t believe the hype about them just throwing troops into the meat grinder to be slaughtered,” he added. “They do that too, of course — maximizing even more the impact of their superior numbers — but they also learn and refine.”
…
But the senior officers POLITICO spoke to said that Syrsky was wrong and “playing along with narratives from politicians.” Then, on Tuesday, Zelenskyy signed some additional parts to an old mobilization law tightening the legal requirements for draft-age Ukrainian men to register their details, and lowering the minimum age for call-up from 27 to 25. But in Ukraine, this is just seen as tinkering.
“We don’t only have a military crisis — we have a political one,” one of the officers said. While Ukraine shies away from a big draft, “Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a big attack around August, and maybe sooner.”
They want to escalate further it seems!
.
Abstract :
Underground fighters: Foreign mercenaries back in Kharkov and Sumy – raid on Belgorod and Bryansk in preparation
Mercenaries from France, Georgia and fighters from the terrorist militia “Russian Volunteer Corps” have arrived in the city of Kharkov, the capital of the region of the same name in the northeast of the former Ukrainian SSR. Sergei Lebedev, coordinator of the resistance movement in the Nikolayev region in the south of the country, provides information about this with reference to the Kharkov allies.
The Russian news agency TASS quotes him as saying:
“New groups of mercenaries have set up in Kharkov, in their ranks there are fighters from the Chechen battalion, from Georgia and France, as well as from the ‘Russian Volunteer Corps’.”
Lebedev added that citizens of the three Baltic states, as well as the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania, are also present there. They all had vehicles and ammunition with them.
Regarding the appearance of some of these people, the Nikolaev resistance coordinator quotes his Kharkov allies as follows:
“In the center near the city council there are a lot of olive green people on different vehicles with different signs, including triangles and skulls, the vehicles with different specific accessories, with camouflage nets and without. They behave confidently and arrogantly, not mobilized people, not simple fighters. They speak Russian, but their accent isn’t a local one – but it doesn’t sound like a ‘real’ foreign country either. They look like some specialists. Had lunch in cafes that weren’t too cheap.
Many of the olive greens drive vehicles with civilian license plates, which also often carry various specific accessories. Everyone is freshly recovered, styled in barbershops, and doesn’t present themselves in full gear.”
According to the Kharkov resistance, they are present in approximately the same number as at the beginning of autumn 2022. This should not be ignored because this concentration could be a sign of another planned attack on the Russian border region of Belgorod, argues Lebedev on his Telegram channel. A similar mercenary invasion can also be observed in the neighboring Sumy region – this can be seen as a sign of preparation for an attack on the Russian border region of Bryansk.
In addition, the coordinator had recently reported the arrival of a large number of fighters from the Nazi Azov terrorist militia in Kharkov.
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 16:29 utc | 54
And now this, Ukraine just took out a drone factory deep inside Russia :
Posted by: bored | Apr 3 2024 16:32 utc | 55
snake | Apr 3 2024 16:12 utc | 51
Something is going on. The bimbo from the Baltics saying we shouldn’t be afraid of nuclear war. A US politician saying Israel should just nuke Gaza and get it over with quickly.
On top of that the French officer thinking France can take on Russia in a nuclear war….
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 16:34 utc | 56
This is a shell game deploying deniable mercenaries.
200s and 300s can be made from any nationality. Meat is meat.
The Russians are equal opportunity like that.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 3 2024 16:35 utc | 57
Anti-mirror post:
.
France is serious about sending troops to Ukraine
Apparently French President Macron is serious about his idea of sending regular French troops to Ukraine to fight Russia. Macron has also announced that he will not turn to NATO in the event of Russian attacks on his soldiers.
.
The idea of sending ground troops from NATO countries to Ukraine, which French President Macron brought up at an EU summit at the end of February, was controversial from the start. However, it led to European politicians subsequently openly declaring that NATO soldiers were already active in Ukraine. Just recently, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said that the reality is that every NATO member state already has military personnel in Ukraine, such as military attachés or people who travel to Ukraine from time to time. However, German media remain silent about this sensitive issue and at best report on it in very small print.
.
NATO’s concerns
Now the Wall Street Journal has the headline “Macron didn’t want to humiliate Putin. Now he wants to be tough” reported about it. The US fears that Western countries could become involved in the conflict in Ukraine if Russia attacks French soldiers while they are in the combat zone.
According to the newspaper’s source, the US government is concerned that Russian forces could attack French troops if sent into the combat zone, which would lead to the involvement of France and other Western countries in the conflict. The newspaper reports that the issue of soldiers deployed to Ukraine has been the subject of discussion among NATO allies, particularly the question of the collective response of NATO members in the event of the death of soldiers.
France appears to want to brush off concerns because, according to the Wall Street Journal, France has no intention of asking NATO allies for help in the event of a Russian attack on its soldiers in Ukraine. President Macron explained this. In his opinion, “there is no need to involve NATO or the US when Russia attacks French troops.” France, for example, suffered losses in military actions in Africa without asking its allies for help,” Macron was quoted as saying, citing sources .
Are French soldiers already in Ukraine?
In recent months there have been repeated reports that French “mercenaries” have been killed in Russian missile attacks. There is a suspicion that these were French soldiers from the Foreign Legion, who are part of the regular French armed forces. According to Russian reports, there is already unrest in French government circles because the large number of French losses can no longer be kept secret and the losses are also leading to the French army having more and more difficulty recruiting new “volunteers” for secret missions in Ukraine to find. This could be the reason why Macron now officially wants to send soldiers in order to be able to explain the deaths and to no longer have to rely on “volunteers”.
abstract
Source :
https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2024/frankreich-macht-ernst-mit-der-entsendung-von-truppen-in-die-ukraine/
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 16:35 utc | 58
Are you channelling your inner Shadowbanned? The UK’s nuclear capability would be more than enough to wreck Russia for decades to come. It’s not just MIRVed D-5’s you have to worry about, there’s also the eye-patched instant sunshine deliverers, and they are cunning so and so’s.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 15:29 utc | 37
You haven’t been paying attention have you? Did you not get the message that just 2 weeks ago the Russians struck an SBU bunker in Kiev that was defended by a patriot battery with a Tsirkon missile launched by a submarine 700 km away in the Black Sea that struck so fast the Ukrainians didn’t even have time to raise an alarm let alone try to defend against it … and that was with NATO ISR.
Today a single Russian submarine could take out the Whitehouse, Pentagon and Downing Street in under ten minutes from the middle of the Atlantic and there is nothing NATO could do about it.
Now picture that decapitation strike coordinated with a massive missile attack on USA / UK … they see the missiles in the air over at NORAD but nobody’s left to give the launch order.
I don’t for a minute believe the Russians are going to attack the USA / UK with nuclear weapons and if they did it would be the end of most of us but if it comes down to a nuclear fight today Russia has all the cards.
Did I mention that Russia still takes civil defence seriously and can get the entire city of Moscow underground in 30 minutes … they ran a drill right before the SMO. That’s also why you see bunkers deep under every factory and most villages in Ukraine … they were built by the Soviets to withstand a nuclear war. If the Soviets built like that in Ukraine don’t you think the rest of Russia might be built the same? Any well stocked bomb shelters in your workplace?
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 3 2024 16:38 utc | 59
Posted by: bored | Apr 3 2024 16:32 utc | 55
.
.
It would have helped you to follow the VARIOUS Telegram channels, I emphasize!
Then you would have noticed that almost everyone is talking about a missed goal.
.
Tip: Read a lot of sources to get a picture yourself, and the reports raise various doubts.
In this case, around 90% of the reports from all sides were the same.
Miss the target
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 16:41 utc | 60
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 16:41 utc | 60
##############
Some people want their bias confirmed and will rely upon any odious source to do so.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 3 2024 16:44 utc | 61
Doctor Eleven@49….I didn’t mine the area they did. It’s a fact, deal with it…..
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 3 2024 16:46 utc | 62
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 3 2024 16:46 utc | 62
.
.
Correct !
That’s why I read Ukrainian and Russian, but also Asia and yes USA, the rest is drummed into me anyway in the western bubble so I don’t need to look (=
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 16:49 utc | 63
Sad that NATO trolls have driven out almost all the good commenters.
Nothing but noise on this thread.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 3 2024 16:57 utc | 64
Regarding the pacing of Russian Federation attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure: Imo there could be less obvious advantages to stringing out the strikes on them, and making them intermittent. For one, a partially disabled node puts a strain on otherwise nonaffected ones. Another could be that pauses allow intelligence to be gained on what equipment is now out of commission, and which is still repairable. Speaking of repairs, by holding off on a second round of attacks, Russia encourages Ukraine to expend some of its limited supply of repair parts on equipment that is going to get attacked again. And hours of skilled labor also would go to waste.
Another factor could be that allowing time to pass highlights the lack of air defenses when a second strike is made on the same target. It lets the Ukrainian public know that the first strike wasn’t just luck, time is up for Zelenskyy being able to ward off critical aerial attacks, and so evacuating westward might be wise.
And since the AFU is under considerable pressure to provide air defenses, they might be compelled to provide some by a recall of a part of what was sent to protect assets near the front lines. Furthermore, while I’m out of my depth in bring up how air defenses work, I have to wonder if it can be foolish to spread them out instead of concentrating them where they can protect each other, even if that meant conceding some areas to be totally undefended.
It seems to me that a yooge factor in calculating how to maintain Ukraine’s defenses is how things will get perceived back in America. And in the case of air defenses, it will be major blow to how the Zelenskyy regime is perceived if it becomes obvious that Ukraine has had to concede the skies over some of its cities energy grids, and that the power was going out, and there was nothing they could do to prevent it.
Here in America, the MIC’s lackey in the press refuse to portray as compelling news the number of AFU casualties, and loss of equipment. But cities perpetually in the dark are an unavoidable reminder of a war that is being lost, and satellite photos of the nighttime sky over now darkened cities tells a story that needs no words, and which the media can’t spin.
If I had to bet I’d put my money on a prolonged degradation of Ukraine’s energy grid. That would be in accordance with the most efficient use of missiles and drones which, however plentiful they might be, could always be used for later attacks.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 3 2024 16:58 utc | 65
sean the leprechaun | Apr 3 2024 16:46 utc | 62
Everything is mined by both sides. Advances by both sides are usualy single file for that reason.
The best one I saw though was on one of the attacks towards Belgorod. The Russians remote mined behind the lead elements to prevent backup/follow up forces.
When the survivors of the lead units retreated back the way they had come, they were completely destroyed in the mine field that had been laid behind them.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 16:58 utc | 66
@ b # 53 with the quote
…
“We don’t only have a military crisis — we have a political one,” one of the officers said. While Ukraine shies away from a big draft, “Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a big attack around August, and maybe sooner.”
That is 5 months or sooner…..how much sooner is possible?
I see a big gap that has formed and getting bigger between the resources to feed the 750-1K per day Ukraine losses and any ability to back fill that need AND then get the resources to where they are needed, in a timely manner…..without stable electricity in many regions.
As Peter AU1 described it, Ukraine is this fragile egg shell that has been carved out and is about to collapse…..Orthodox Easter is coming and I missed Usury Easter as the date of collapse….oh well…but this guy saying August hits my outside window of conjecture.
When is Pope Frank going to die or step aside? Humanity needs another distraction and I don’t expect him to ban usury on his way out, but I can dream.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 3 2024 17:03 utc | 67
psychohistorian | Apr 3 2024 17:03 utc | 67
It was someone else with the eggshell description. A pretty fair description of current Ukraine.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 17:07 utc | 68
b | Apr 3 2024 16:17 utc | 53
Ok, but I do not know whom to trust. Politico is a German BND soft filtered and info owned “reporting”, and Klitchko is a potential German agent in Ukraine, that the Anglo-Saxon West tries to prevent coming nowhere near the presidential palace. Some others see it as an advantage.
A collapse that everyone wants to see is not happening, yet. And a few reasons are surely not related just on mega collapse of front-lines and anticipated big arrows stuff. I naively think that articles like that and stories they look in are just a mass opinion litmus paper test.
If you say to anyone literate over 40 in Europe – Russia wins – the answer would be always: “What else is new?”, love them or hate them, so a non-reaction from the vast population in Europe is a surprise? No, nobody wants the war and the people in general do understand it even if not openly talking about it.
Or the idea is to have big street protests of such people, calling to the war with Russia, waving their national flags? Thought so.
Ukraine has been destroyed in 2014 by the West, and its Zombie-state creation in February 2022 by Russians. It is just boring to watch Algor and a Rigor Mortis cool off period.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 3 2024 17:08 utc | 69
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 3 2024 17:03 utc | 67
.
.
Diversion:
The evening programs in the media are already distracted by the topic of Ukraine.
Every dead civilian in Ukraine goes through as a report NOT the dead civilians in Russian areas, mind you
But apart from that, every Pforz is reported on, no matter where and how. The example of “separating from Aditas and now having Nicke as a supplier to the national team” was the main topic in the German media for weeks
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 17:11 utc | 70
“Not this August, nor this September; you have this year to do what you like. Not next August, nor next September; that is still too soon . . . But the year after that or the year after that they fight.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_This_August
The mention of the Ukrainian estimation of Russia attacking this August reminded me of the Hemingway quote, and the SF/alternate history novel by the, died way too young, author C.M. Kornbluth. He was always eminently readable, and the novel I mentioned is no exception, albeit it was written during the cold war, and “the Commies” were the Big Bad.
It’s very recently sort of “de-aged”, as a key point in the novel is how air defenses were king, and they rendered attacks by bombers and missiles as not very doable, so war was fought more traditionally, and without nukes, though imo that part was danced around so there could be a story.
In the public domain in Canada now, so …
https://gutenberg.ca/ebooks/kornbluthcm-notthisaugust/kornbluthcm-notthisaugust-01-h.html
Posted by: Babel-17 | Apr 3 2024 17:21 utc | 71
A rule of dialectics is analogous to this:
An accumulation of quantity leads to a new quality.
And it’s clear that Russia has outstripped the Ukrainians in terms of the quantity of weaponry, whereas on the battlefield things are progressing at a rather leisurely pace.I think that the leap in quality is just around the corner.So the Russians will soon go on the offensive.
And I favour the decisive battle in the Donetsk area.
That would take the pressure off the north and open up new prospects in the direction of Odessa.
Und nun S-Soft…
Posted by: Oberbayer | Apr 3 2024 17:32 utc | 72
whirlX | Apr 3 2024 17:08 utc | 69
When Russia destroyed the first Nato trained Ukraine army, US beltway began talking about tactical nukes to defeat Russia. The the Nato army, equipped with mostly nato ex soviet equipment and a mix of rebadged nato and foriegn trained Ukrainians. Kharkov and Kherson offensives. They were destroyed and again the beltway talks about tactical nukes.
Then the vaunted southern offensive with the third army. That has now long since been destroyed and no more funding or nuke noises coming from the US. Europe on the other hand going apeshit.
Europeans starting to talk openly about nukes.
As for the US, there is this Nato defender exercise to keep an eye on but US seems to have given up on the Ukraine proxies.
Europe now seems to be at the point US can just sit back looking innocent and let the Europeans incur Russian blowback.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 17:32 utc | 73
My take is based on the US’s policy of plausible denibility.
Assume the US is behind the Krokus attack.
Then warning the Russians about an imminent attack in advance makes sense.
You know the attack is imminent because you okayed it.
You introduce an error in the warning so the warning is useless.You state “in the next 48 hours” knowing nothing will happen in that timeframe.
But the warning serves as a convenient way to be able to claim you’re not to blame. “Who? Me?”.
Posted by: Passerby | Apr 3 2024 17:34 utc | 74
HB_Norica | Apr 3 2024 16:38 utc | 59
Good stuff. I agree, there is also a bit mystery explained in a Putin’s comment on the course of the potential nuclear conflict – We will not fire first, but also not second.
Although Brits used to be the best NATO soldiers ever in Europe, during the Cold War exercises, complaining that Americans are too loud on the terrain. Mr Milites has that British lost pride stench, I agree, but I like that tobacco-leader-sandalwood smell.
He is a fellow gamer and knows a lot, I respect that. No need to derogate anyone from the discussion.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 3 2024 17:36 utc | 75
Saw a comment on another thread about the Russian Defence Ministry daily report, so here is today’s “clobber list” from https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12507498@egNews for those people whose ISP blocks direct access.
Nothing too dramatic, just the usual attrition of Ukrinal troops and artillery pieces, often as a result of seemingly futile attempts at counter-attacks.
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (3 April 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in the areas of Stroyevka (Kharkov region) and repelled three attacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 60th Mechanised and 95th Air Assault Brigades near Terny (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 30 Ukrainian troops, three motor vehicles, one 155-mm U.S.-made M777 howitzer, and two 152-mm D-20 howitzers.
In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted damage on manpower and hardware of the 24th, 28th, 53rd mechanised, 5th assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 241st Territorial Defence Brigade near Chasov Yar, Kurdyumovka, and Krasnogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Ten counter-attacks launched by the AFU’s 81st Airmobile, 10th Mountain Assault, 67th, 72nd mechanised brigades and 4th National Guard Brigade of Ukraine were repelled close to Belogorovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Berestovoye, Krasnoye, Bogdanovka, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 390 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles (Kozak and MaxPro), as well as 19 motor vehicles.
In the course of counter-battery warfare, the following enemy’s military hardware was hit: one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 gun, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and one 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun.
In Avdeyevka direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces improved the situation along the front line, defeated enemy formations, and repelled nine counter-attack attacks launched by the 25th Airborne, 24th, 47th, 59th mechanised brigades of the AFU near Pervomayskoye, Kirovo, Vodyanoye, Berdychi, and Tonenkoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 305 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Group of Forces’ units improved the tactical situation and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade near Vodyanoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
In addition, one counter-attack launched by an assault detachment of the AFU 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade was repelled near Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 155 Ukrainian troops, three motor vehicles, as well as one 122-mm BM-21 Grad MLRS combat vehicle.
In Kherson direction, the units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the units of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU and 121st Territorial Defence Brigades close to Novodanilovka, Nesteryanka (Zaporozhye region) and Respublikanets (Kherson region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 35 Ukrainian troops, four motor vehicles, one 155-mm UK-made AS-90 Braveheart self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have been eliminated during the day: one hangar for the production and storage of unmanned aerial vehicles, one armament depot, as well as manpower and military hardware of the AFU in 131 areas.
Air defence systems shot down 164 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and two U.S.-made JDAM aerial guided bombs.
In total, 581 airplanes and 270 helicopters, 18,538 unmanned aerial vehicles, 495 air defence missile systems, 15,684 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,262 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 8,644 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 20,576 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 3 2024 17:49 utc | 76
Resident
Our neighbors are actively preparing, while the Poles are blocking the borders of Ukraine in Bucharest, they want to adopt an interesting law.
Romania is preparing a new law on defense, according to which it will be possible to send troops to the territory of other countries to “protect Romanian citizens” in response to “hybrid threats”.
The intervention will involve: the mobilization of the police and the creation of a” National Military Command Center”, which will unite all security forces, according to local media.
This will only require the decision of the Romanian President and the approval of the Supreme Council of National Defense. The bill is being prepared by the Romanian Defense Ministry, which proposes to submit it for discussion.
Probably the wrong impression, but its starting to look like a number of countries are lining up for the carve up of Ukraine, all wanting to grab a bit.
Russia has made it clear Poland, Hungary and Romania can all have their bits.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 17:57 utc | 77
Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 17:32 utc | 73
Yes, true at many levels. The main cause of this mess are AEGIS bases in Romania and Poland, so Russia put EW, nukes and hypersonics in Kaliningrad. Secondary is Crimea and Danube delta control. Donbass is perhaps just a collateral.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 3 2024 18:01 utc | 78
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 3 2024 17:36 utc | 75
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.
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Now a counterattack?
The Russians are FULLY automated.
Possibly explains the sentence “we will NOT shoot as second”
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 18:01 utc | 79
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 15:34 utc | 38
Oh dear, pressed a few buttons obviously, go on believing what you believe, but you’re going to have to build increasingly complex constructs to explain why the superb Russian Army hasn’t already wrapped this thing up. Good luck with your endeavours, I’ll get back to marking my map of Ukraine with chino-graph pencils, but I prefer a chair without arms for pontificating.
Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 18:05 utc | 80
Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 18:05 utc | 81
.
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You are and will remain a weirdo!
Because of the Russian army!
How many soldiers does this include? 1.5 million ?
Who is at the SMO? You stupid?
No conscripts, so who is fighting on the Russian side?
Voluntary professional soldiers, for example??
Posted by: ossi | Apr 3 2024 18:09 utc | 81
ossi | Apr 3 2024 18:09 utc | 82
So many can’t get it through their thick skulls that there is a reason Russia calls this a special military operation rather than war. Milites appears to be one of them.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 18:12 utc | 82
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 3 2024 15:54 utc | 42
It is really painful to read about Stoltenbergs behaviour. I have called him a quisling before, and I will do it again. It is despicable what he is doing.
All true. I never watch TV or clips, so I don’t know what Stoltenberg looks like now but I got the feeling that he actually wanted out: he’s been trying to trade the NATO position with a domestic one (central bank of Norway). Of course, he belongs in a court.
Posted by: Konami | Apr 3 2024 18:21 utc | 83
“Most of the “daring” (I would say reckless) attacks on Russia: concert halls, bridges, oil refineries, etc., etc., have all the hallmarks of British special services (the SAS and the SBS), coordinated by MI6.”
John Marks (44).
I agree on the above, several English PM’s have boasted about England being first to do this and that for Ukraine, the terrorists in the concert hall killings moved in tandem, they had obviously been trained to carry out this atrocity, and no doubt to kill women and children in cold blood they would have been pumped full of drugs (Then again the Zionist have no problems killing children in cold blood). Once the training ground in whatever country is found, its more than likely that the country/ies behind the attack will be known, though I suspect that most of the people that make the connections to the country/ies will have been terminated by now.
As for England obsession with Russia, The Great Game springs to mind, England once feared Russia moving in on India a jewel in the English Empire at one time, I suppose the English saw the region as theirs at the time. Fast forward to the 20th century and a bogeyman was needed, and once the Soviet Union collapsed Nato had no remit so Russia had to be revived to become the bogeyman once again to give Nato relevance.
The big question must be, does the West really want to crush Russia or does it just want Russia to remain the bogeyman for ever how long is needed to frighten Western citizens and keep on making those politician who tell us Russia is about to invade our country relevant as well, also there’s the huge waste of taxpayers cash on weapons that we don’t really need and will probably never use as Russia has no inclination to invade the West, all we are doing is making the MIC and their compliant politicians rich off our misplaced fear of Russia.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 3 2024 18:22 utc | 84
I’m sorry, but I kind of remember different Milites, the one that for many times has patiently explained the trends Ukrainian and Russian militaries are now going through – one losing experienced soldiers and units and then the other one who is gaining vital experience and is going from strength to strength. Might be the discussion, but nevertheless, that’s what I remember.
And where’s the urgency of Shadowbanned&Co disappeared?
Posted by: js | Apr 3 2024 18:24 utc | 85
In I think the previous thread, some clown said nobody respects Russia. I guess in that clowns mind, everybody is Europe.
Resident
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Insider information
Our source in the OP said that the summit of world leaders under the Zelensky formula will not take place this year, because representatives of the global South refused to participate even formally in this process. An attempt by the President’s Office to segment Zelensky’s peace program failed, and everyone understands Kiev’s desire to gather country leaders in one place to demonstrate support for Ukraine.
Russia held a world youth forum not long back and a large number of young people from all over the world including the west attended.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 3 2024 18:31 utc | 86
Little Princess Manny Macaroon wants Putler to tear her a new one just like his great great great grandfather did for emperor Napoleon back in 1814. She really really wants them to come to her big party in Gay Paree this summer and she really really wants her Sahel collection back!
Her Banker bosses aren’t happy that their land purchases mean they don’t finally got what they wanted for ever and BHL wants his palace In Odessa..
So many dreams , so many tears before bedtime to come, this is probably how it looked to the maddened Caesars and the Romans who got bread and circuses as the Empire fizzled and died..
I’ll order a sack of popcorn and ….champagne I think.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 3 2024 18:32 utc | 87
Oliver Krug (40).
I’d say that the USA’s influence on Europe does indeed stem back to WWII and Germany is I think a country with the most US military personnel stationed in it, though it could be Japan or the UK, the German security services the BND even has an office in Washington DC.
I think many WWII Nazi scientists etc were sent to the USA to carry on their work for the Americans so the ties are there, I’d also say that the USA has many European politicians in its pocket via the The US State Departments programmes that takes up and coming and promising young politicians to America and indoctrinates them into their way of thinking to put US interests at the forefront of their politics, hence the huge number of Atlanticists within Europe and the EU.
In England the USA has the (BAP) scheme which does the same with UK politicians and the UK is over ran with Atlanticists as well.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 3 2024 18:34 utc | 88