Two Israeli Actions Misfired, Pushed Netanyahoo Into Retreat
Several recent incidents have increased the pressure on Israel to end its war on Gaza.
There are serious signs that the Israeli government, under pressure from the U.S., is now moving towards an intermediate ceasefire state that all sides may be able to live with - at least for a while. The decision to do that however has split the Netanyahoo government and may well end the coalition which supports it.
After six month of operations in Gaza the Israeli government has reached none of its announced aims. Neither is Hamas defeated, nor have the hostages been released. There is no viable plan who, if not Hamas, will in future rule the Gaza strip.
Israeli settlers, who have been living near the Gaza strip and the northern border, are still not willing to return to their homes as the government lacks a plan to guarantee their security.
Pressure on the Israeli government comes from several sides.
The war has been extremely costly for Israel's economy. The called up reservists have been missing in their work places. The tourism business is down on its knees. Providing for those hundreds of thousands who have fled from their homes is costly.
Large protest have erupted within Israel demanding the return of the hostages.
International criticism of Israel has risen to unprecedented levels. Several UN resolutions have condemned it for its war crimes in Gaza. The International Court of Justice has ruled against it.
Only the support from the United States had allowed Israel to continue. But two recent incidents have jeopardized it.
The first was Israel's assassination of seven people who had been working for World Central Kitchen, a U.S. based charity with good connections to Congress. Forty members of Congress, including Nancy Pelosi, have since spoken out against further unconditional support for Israel. The U.S. government under Joe Biden had to acknowledge that. It finally threatened to end its support for the Israeli government.
Following U.S. threats Israel immediately increased the provision of food to the starving population in Gaza:
The Defense Ministry body that coordinates Israeli activity in Palestinian territories said that 322 aid trucks entered the Gaza Strip on Sunday, the highest one-day total since the beginning of the war.
The second game changing incident was the Israeli attack on an Iranian embassy building in Damascus. A hit on any embassy is a serious crime that concerns all governments in this world. Iran would be fully within its rights to retaliated for such a strike.
The U.S. was extremely concerned over this as any Iranian response might well hit the many U.S. installation in the Middle East and could escalate into a wider war with severe consequences for all sides.
This had to be averted. Iranian media report now that a deal has been made in negotiations between Iran and the U.S. Iran will refrain from a direct attack on Israel if the U.S. guarantees a ceasefire in Gaza:
Iran informed the US that it would refrain from responding to the airstrike in which senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders were killed in Damascus if a ceasefire in Gaza is reached, Jadeh Iran reported on Sunday.The news outlet cited an anonymous Arab diplomatic source, saying the source spoke to the news outlet two days ago. The source added that "If America succeeds in containing the situation, it will be a great success for the Biden administration and we can build on that."
The report comes as negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release deal resume between Israel and Hamas in Cairo and as Israel continues preparations for a possible response to the Damascus airstrike that Syria and Iran blamed on Israel.
For the first time in six months ceasefire negotiations have suddenly become serious:
The state-linked Al-Qahera reported that Qatari and Hamas delegations had left Cairo and were expected to return “within two days to finalize the terms of the agreement.”US and Israeli delegations were due to leave the Egyptian capital “in the next few hours” and consultations were expected to continue over the next 48 hours, the outlet added.
The report, which was not confirmed by any of the parties in the talks, came after Israeli officials had indicated cautious optimism on the chances for a deal in comments carried by Hebrew-language media, with Jerusalem giving its delegation wider leeway to make concessions toward an agreement.
“This time is different, we are the closest we’ve been in months to a deal,” Channel 12 news quoted a source close to the talks saying.
Yesterday Israel withdrew its last but one brigade from Gaza. Many in Israel interpreted this as an admittance of defeat:
Is this how the war ends? Not with a bang, or even a whimper, but with the IDF pulling its ground forces out of Khan Younis, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant asserting, in defiance of reality, that Hamas has “stopped functioning as a military organization throughout the Gaza Strip,” contradicting himself in the next breath, and clarifying a few hours later?As Israel on Sunday marked six months since the October 7 massacre, the two prime declared goals of the war — destroying Hamas’s military capabilities and bringing home the remaining 129 hostages abducted that day — are patently unfulfilled.
...
Channel 12 TV’s military correspondent Nir Dvori, reading from his notes during the primetime evening news, presumably after a military briefing, echoed the assessment: “We have moved from war to fighting. The high-intensity [ground] maneuver is finished everywhere in Gaza. The operation in Khan Younis is done. [The IDF] is moving to the system of [more narrowly focused] raids.” Such raids were already being implemented in the north of Gaza, and now they would become the modus operandi in the south as well, he assessed.Making no effort to conceal his dismay at the material he was conveying, Dvori declared that “the hunt for [Hamas’s Gaza chief Yahya] Sinwar now moves essentially to the realm of intel. And Israel, as we see, has given up on [its] two major points of leverage: both military pressure and humanitarian [aid].”
“After half a year,” Dvori unhappily summed up, “Israel remains with three big problems: how to return the hostages; how to bring the residents back home in the south and north [who were evacuated due to the fighting]; and how to set up an alternative to Hamas” to administer the Strip. “If Israel cannot achieve a framework for this, and I don’t know of one, then we are entering a very big problem for Israel,” he concluded.
The radicals in Israel's government also interpret this as a defeat of their aims. They are threatening to blow up their coalition with Netanyahoo over this:
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich issues a statement calling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to immediately convene the security cabinet to discuss the state of the war in Gaza, after the army pulled forces out of the southern Strip.“The only forum authorized to make significant decisions in war is the full [security] cabinet, but unfortunately this is not how things are happening, and we are seeing decisions being made in the smaller [war] cabinet without approval, without updating the full cabinet, under international pressure that is harming the war’s momentum and our security interests,” he says.
The Netanyahoo government had gotten too cooky. Its army's attack on U.S. supported charity workers and its attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus finally pushed the U.S. government to withdraw its support for the war.
Without support from the U.S. there is no way for Israel to continue a fight. Netanyahoo had to give up and did so.
We thus may now move towards a new balance of a lesser war which may sustain for a while but which can no be permanent.
The aim of Hamas' Al Aqsa Flood operation was to shatter the feeling of security and invincibility with he Zionist population of Israel. In has been successful in this.
The Israeli government has yet found no way to compensate for it.
Posted by b on April 8, 2024 at 10:46 UTC | Permalink
next page »Trading what might be a needless escalation for a central role in a Gaza cease-fire…
Iran scores big on ROW public opinion.
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 8 2024 10:56 utc | 2
Hamas will never ever be defeated and the Zionist regime knows that.
Posted by: AI | Apr 8 2024 11:06 utc | 3
The ceasefire negotiations have a very small, if any, chance of being successful, simply because the zionazi loonies simply won't back down from their maximalist demands. So far there has been no progress whatsoever...
Also, color me unimpressed by 'Murica's "strong condemnations" of their zionazi brethren's attrocities, but I won't hold my breath that any "western" country will stop funding and supporting the bloodthirsty genociders.
Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Apr 8 2024 11:16 utc | 4
Typo.
I think you meant to write:
The Netanyahoo government had gotten too cocky.
Fits the context much better.
Posted by: Kukulkan | Apr 8 2024 11:22 utc | 5
USA and the West may continue support for the murderous State of Israel.
Nothing that they do can prevent Israel being recognised as a settler-colonialist, terrorist state.
Its role into the future as a pariah state is now assured.
The people of the world can recognise mass-murder when they see it.
The ICJ can recognise and condemn it.
The Security Council has demanded a cease-fire.
Israel continues to dig its own grave.
Posted by: Engineer-John | Apr 8 2024 11:23 utc | 6
If Bibi had any competence, he would have resigned October 8 stating that his flawed policies let to to failure. No army can win a war with no defined goal.
Posted by: Polli | Apr 8 2024 11:25 utc | 7
And to be clear, the displaced Israelis from the South and North were 'pioneers'.
The crazies in Judea and Samaria are 'settlers'.
Failure to understand these implications will lead to faulty analysis.
Posted by: Polli | Apr 8 2024 11:28 utc | 8
Here is a pretty good thread on the 'death spiral match' between Iran and Israel.
Israel needed a strategy that would drag US against Iran and to fight its war in Palestine to allow Israel recover internally, remove attention from Palestine and Gaza, and reposition the Arab states and their propaganda against Iran.
Israel is making continuous attacks on Iran, gradually escalatory and larger attacks in respond to Iran's smaller attacks. The ultimate purpose is to achieve fore mentioned goals.
Iran's purpose is to keep the war inside Gaza, and with its attacks on Israel not be large enough to enable Israel to change attention away from Gaza, or drag US to fight Israel's war. This enables keeping Israel in a death spiral.
https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1776842636395208711
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 8 2024 11:29 utc | 9
If the Iranians have done such a deal, it is very, very clever. They will have retaliated against a terrorist atrocity with peace.
Posted by: Squeeth | Apr 8 2024 11:39 utc | 10
Allahu Akbar, Allahu Akbar. La Ilaaha Illallahu Wallahu Akbar, Allahu Akbar wa Lillahil Hamd
Posted by: Giyane | Apr 8 2024 11:41 utc | 11
Can it be that after 34,000 Palestinians killed by IDF and 1000's more to die from disease and malnutrition in Gaza, Canadian-American WCK aid worker Jacob Flickinger's death a trigger for a ceasefire? Truly, you can't make this up. Flickinger's partner and mother of his son, Sandy LeClerc, on ABC: "Please, Mr Biden, give us the truth of what happened...I think we need to bring more peace into this world."
I'm not sure I agree with this analysis. Time will tell.
Ramadan ends in 48 hours. I think the IDF will go into Rafah and resume the genocide as soon as that ends. Hamas is not agreeing to any ceasefire.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 8 2024 11:58 utc | 13
I disagree with this analysis. Ramadan ends in 48 hours. The ceasefire negotiations aren't going anywhere, Hamas isn't playing ball.
Bibi will order the beginning of the Rafah operation as soon as Ramadan ends.
Then the ball will be in Iran's court.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 8 2024 12:00 utc | 14
And just like that, the genocide never happened, and Joe Biden should win the Nobel Peace Prize.
Posted by: Robert Italia | Apr 8 2024 12:02 utc | 15
Any assertion that Hamas and PIJ have been defeated in the field of battle is ludicrous..........attacks on IDF occupation forces continue on a daily basis, there is no evidence that these attacks have halted or are impaired by IDF occupation forces.
The IRA fought the Brits in occupied Northern Ireland from 1923 - 1998 and were never defeated. They continued their attacks on the Brits despite massive use of military force, planned assassinations and general oppression of the Irish people.
This is a lesson never learned by the IDF.......the Palestinians will never surrender until the land seized in the illegal wars against their people in 1948, 1953, 1958, 1967, and 1973 are restored. Until the farmlands, orchards, pastures and vineyards of the Palestinian people are restored this conflict will never end, rest assured of that fact.
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Apr 8 2024 12:02 utc | 16
Hope you're right b. The monstrous crimes of Israel in Gaza are haunting.
I await anxiously the coming eclipse with the ominous wariness of a Roman. Thanks for the article.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 8 2024 12:03 utc | 17
Good words, but still merely words. :) Let's see it bear fruit sweeter than Minsk 1 & 2.
It is costly to sacrifice one's credibility, for you need greater displays of action later to assure your sincerity. Or will the temptation to more silly little games be too much for the Imperious West? ;) Who can figure out such odds?
Posted by: titmouse | Apr 8 2024 12:07 utc | 18
Difficult to imagine a greater failure and desaster for Israel government.
Nothing concrete achieved apart from Gaza destruction and partial population quasi genocide.
Huge economic price.huge combat toll, immense loss in credibility throughout the world, including within the US.
The manœuvre to take advantage of Palestinian attack plan was highly dangerous, and revealed itself so quickly
Posted by: Daniel | Apr 8 2024 12:08 utc | 19
Difficult to imagine a greater failure and desaster for Israel government.
Nothing concrete achieved apart from Gaza destruction and partial population quasi genocide.
Huge economic price.huge combat toll, immense loss in credibility throughout the world, including within the US.
The manœuvre to take advantage of Palestinian attack plan was highly dangerous, and revealed itself so quickly
Posted by: Daniel | Apr 8 2024 12:08 utc | 20
It seems to me, the most important demands Hamas could make of the Jewish entity in the ceasefire negotiations is elimination of the blockade of Gaza's seacoast and elimination of Jewish interference in the Raffah border crossing. The winning of those demands would, in effect, end Jewish control of Gaza. Yet, at least according to corporate media, Hamas is not making those demands. Why not?
Posted by: Chas | Apr 8 2024 12:14 utc | 21
So we have real events, the embassy hit, which achieved its goals of killing everyone, then imaginary actions with imaginary results: an "anonymous" source said something about something. Iran could avoid assassinations by being smart (where they meet, how they travel and so on), which they're not so they keep getting killed.
If Bibi wants to stop he'll do so, no one is forcing him, the weapons and money are unlimited, no pressure from US and with Trumpy will be even better. Boy Jared already has a business project for the Gaza "waterfront". Maybe Bibi plans to drop mines (as previously announced by local media - what will not be taken will be mined). He won't keep his soldiers there, would he? Many goals achieved anyway, for example endless killing and complete destruction. The NGOs like the one attacked won't take part anymore, starvation goal achieved with zero losses. And most of the stuff dropped by plane falls intentionally in the water. Sooner or later US and EU will invade Gaza permanently, it's the Ursula and Borel plan for a "special route" they keep talking about. The most interesting part is that many local countries are Bibi supporters, another success. Bibi did not expect little Yemen to cause problems with shipping, but that's not such a big problem, Russia and China can fulfill any shipping needs
Posted by: rk | Apr 8 2024 12:15 utc | 22
The Iranians are taking exactly the correct approach here.
A massive retaliatory strike on the Israelis would shift the world's focus from the IDF genocidal actions in Gaza and the West Bank, and immediately engender renewed sympathy for the Bibi coalition government.
Instead, the Iranians are witnessing world wide condemnation of the Damascus embassy strike, and the outrage over the use of the Lavender AI IDF target program to murder thousands of Palestinian families in their own homes (their crime of course was to be employed by the Gaza government as police officers, civil servants, doctors, nurses, EMT's, Ambo drivers, food aid workers, professors, poets, educators, or just general governmental administrators).
As the Bibi coalition government strikes out with internal rancor and international contempt, the Iranians are hitting a walk off home run...bravo.....
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Apr 8 2024 12:18 utc | 23
Hope you're right b. The monstrous crimes of Israel in Gaza are haunting.
I await anxiously the coming eclipse with the ominous wariness of a Roman. Thanks for the article.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Apr 8 2024 12:03 utc | 16
I don't think the 'ominous wariness' of a Roman applies:
Plutarch writes that Aemilius Paulus the Roman consul and general used an eclipse to rally his troops against the Macedonians whom were affrighted by the eclipse and their morale slumped at the Battle of Pynda (167 AD) while the Roman legion's morale was stiffened by the same eclipse and summarily defeated the Macedonian phalanx.
"7 Now, when night had come, and the [Roman]soldiers, after supper, were betaking themselves to rest and sleep, on a sudden the moon, which was full and high in the heavens, grew dark, lost its light, took on all sorts of colours in succession, and finally disappeared.e 8 The Romans, according to their custom, tried to call her light back by the clashing of bronze utensils and by holding up many blazing fire-brands and torches towards the heavens; the Macedonians, however, did nothing of this sort, but amazement and terror possessed their camp, and a rumour quietly spread among many of them that the portent signified an eclipse of a king.
9 Now, Aemilius [Paulus] was not altogether without knowledge and experiences of the irregularities of eclipses, which, at fixed periods, carry the moon in her course into the shadow of the earth and conceal her from sight, until she passes beyond the region of shadow and reflects again the light of the sun; 10 however, since he was very devout and given to sacrifices and divination, as soon as he saw the moon beginning to emerge from the shadow, he sacrificed eleven heifers to her. 11 And as soon as it was day, he sacrificed as many as twenty oxen to Hercules without getting favourable omens; but with the twenty-first victim the propitious signs appeared and indicated victory if they stood on the defensive. 12 Accordingly, having vowed to the god a hecatomb and solemn games, he ordered his officers to put the army in array for battle; 13 but he himself, waiting for the sun to pass to the west and decline, in order that its morning light might not shine in the faces of his men as they fought, passed the time sitting in his tent, which was open towards the plain and the enemy's encampment. (1)
1.https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Plutarch/Lives/Aemilius*.html
Pioneers ?
The landowners might disagree with that definition
https://www.plands.org/en/articles-speeches/speeches/2023/return-plan-2023
Posted by: Exile | Apr 8 2024 12:28 utc | 25
Excellent News
If what b has reported is anywhere near reality then it is truly a 5D diplomatic chess move by Iran. Using the Zionist’s mistakes against them to achieve a great result for the Palestinians of Gaza-even if it turns out to be only temporary relief from the active genocide they have experienced for 6 months.
The racist nut jobs in the Israeli government-and no doubt a large proportion of the Jewish population of Israel will be apoplectic. When the realisation that the overall Zionist goal of removal of the Palestinian people from all of their historic lands has met a very serious blockage sinks in, they will very likely become extremely dangerous and unpredictable.
I do not pretend any insight into the psychology of fanatical Zionists, but their apparent possession of nuclear weapons and appropriate delivery systems should lead everyone to worry. I sincerely hope that the US (and RF) are watching for signs of severe desperation, and have some (mutually agreed) plan to neuter any really insane Zionist behaviour.
The next couple of weeks may see some really major developments, not just in the ME but possibly also in Ukraine. I do not think that the Gaza war and that in Ukraine should be viewed as being entirely separate in their underlying causes.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Apr 8 2024 12:28 utc | 26
Posted by: Squeeth | Apr 8 2024 11:39 utc | 10
If the Iranians have done such a deal, it is very, very clever. They will have retaliated against a terrorist atrocity with peace.
######
Agree, but anyone who knows the least little bit about Iran knew that retaliation would not be violence/tit-for-tat.
The American people need to understand: USA is held hostage to guarantee that Israel fulfills conditions.
Will the Lockheed contract go forward? Israel should be deprived of F15s etc., they make Israel too self-confidently "cooky" (kooky?). Israel has been a major component of Lockheed, and Lockheed a major supplier to Israel, since the Martin Marietta-Lockheed merger in late 1980s-1990.
BUT: What about the Gazans trapped in Rafah -- where are they to go? Who will pay to rebuild Gaza? What about Palestinian prisoners held by Israel?
Posted by: ChasMark | Apr 8 2024 12:32 utc | 27
Israeli government indeed became too cooky, my understanding of the word is "hard to figure out what and how they think" or simply "irrational". This assemblage of individuals is weird in extreme, yet, in all their lack of wisdom, the Administration decided to let them do what they want, no second guessing the most precious ally!
In the same time, GoI has to make difficult choices, a simple approach adopted at the very beginning, "just kill them all, we will figure out whom to mourn" is not sustainable, and a "clever approach" of exterminating all possible sources proving information on casualties and starving the rest (denying potable water too) encounters difficulties. Yet, by inclinations and ideology, these cooks (sorry to amateurs and professionals of actual cooking) have to be uncompromising and decisive, so they had to figure something uncompromising and decisive, and here we are.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 8 2024 12:40 utc | 28
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 8 2024 12:00 utc | 13
Then the ball will be in Iran's court.
######
Not so sure about that.
USA is hostage to the deal. First US soldier who suffers a hang-nail jeopardizes Biden & what remains of US credibility. Biden has GOT to halt supplying Israel with weapons and SANCTION US dealings with Israel.
BUT -- what will Trump do? 9And is there ANY dark horse out there that the American people can "elect" to lead their nation with some competence?
Posted by: ChasMark | Apr 8 2024 12:40 utc | 29
Posted by: Squeeth | Apr 8 2024 11:39 utc | 10
If the Iranians have done such a deal, it is very, very clever. They will have retaliated against a terrorist atrocity with peace.
Absolutely agree. I should have acknowledged your post in mine at 25.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Apr 8 2024 12:40 utc | 30
SITREP round up:
https://www.palestinechronicle.com/the-khan-yunis-retreat-resistance-roundup-day-184/
Comment - 3 videos: Southern Front; 1st Video is the assembly and firing off of some homespun rockets. 2nd video is a jubilant compliation video of victory against to IDF in Khan Yonis battle. Northern Front; yet another series of attacks on IDF positions
Eastern Front - there was a claim that a Iraqi drone stuck the Haifa refinery yesterday (Sunday) any confirmation ?
Posted by: Exile | Apr 8 2024 12:53 utc | 31
Anyone following the live feed of the Genocide Lawsuit hearings against German government today ?
Posted by: Exile | Apr 8 2024 12:59 utc | 32
Good news, but no shortage of fluff, had to kill seven white people for the the rest of the world to pay attention.....lip service from US Congress, 40 out of what.
Now when the rest of the world freezes and seizes Israeli financial holdings world wide and designates the money for the reconstruction of Gaza.....that's an action that can be judged.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 8 2024 13:01 utc | 33
I dislike Polish on-line media because either they have paywalls or close comment sections that I like. But I checked for reactions to recent events, given parochialism, the killing of a Polish aid worker would force coverage that is otherwise avoided (not particularly friendly to I., but very sparse). One story is that two parliamentarians, from the right (not United Right but a coalition of libertarians, monarchists etc.) and left (conventional tame left, think Linke) voiced opinion that the killing of WCK workers was deliberate. For that Israeli ambassador accused them of anti-semitism with some vague generalizations, which resulted in a stern reply from Prime Minister.
Second story is interesting. Ambassador accused a Polish university for tolerating antisemitism, denying safety to Israelis, which was rebuked. The full story is little bit crazy. Russian literature program (yes, they exist in Poland) used to periodically invite Russian authors, alas, now such invitations are conditioned on condemnation of Russian aggression which effectively ended that. So the organizers figured that they could consider writers of Russian prose in Israel, and found one. However, students found social posts of that writer (later deleted) approving the killing of children in Gaza, and notified the department had, resulting in cancelling of the invitation.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 8 2024 13:04 utc | 34
If Hamas' tunnels are such a peril for Israel it should have developed an AI-based plan and announced it to the world as a strategic and more humane way of rendering Hamas inoperative in Gaza and at least put on a show of achieving it, also Hamas satraps outside Gaza should have been targeted economically and militarily, yet it seems none of this was done. The other priority should have been freeing the hostages of course. Also Gaza should have been more fully integrated into the Israel economy, including the imposition of onerous surcharges for protecting Gazans themselves from illegal terrorist actors, i.e. Hamas. Furthermore, if it's true that significant gas/oil deposits lie off the coast of Gaza these should be developed in the name of the Gazans, by Israeli energy companies (the former of which can be confiscated at a future time 'if need be').
Posted by: Ludo | Apr 8 2024 13:06 utc | 35
As I noted yesterday, the first of many small steps is being taken that will lead to the exile of the Zionists. Unmentioned are the attacks aimed at Haifa which are strategic in nature. One of the Zionist allies--Erdogan--suffered a big political defeat because of his continuing support despite his rhetoric, which also puts pressure on the Zionists. Also unsaid is the vast rupture in relations between Russia and Zionists. So, there're are many factors that are enabling this change in the conflict's direction. Lavrov's in China for the next two days and will certainly discuss how Russia and China can further the effort as force will be required at some point to enforce a Just solution for Palestinians, the Zionists now having proved to be no better than Nazis.
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Apr 8 2024 12:02 utc | 15
"From the River to the Sea, Palestine shall be free.". Case closed.
Posted by: AI | Apr 8 2024 13:17 utc | 37
If the cake was awful before, it won't taste much better with another cherry on top.
At least they realized the cherry was rotten but they still have to acknowledge eating the cake will make them sick onto death. Let them eat cake ...
Posted by: Savonarole | Apr 8 2024 13:20 utc | 38
"Netanyahoo had to give up and did so."
Yes? Why is Rafah being bombed right now?
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 8 2024 13:22 utc | 39
I think it's important to understand that there will be no ceasefire at this time, and that Iran knows this, and very likely the US knows this. Among other things, both the US and the Zionist Entity, which are joined at the hip, are 'agreement incapable.' What Iran has done is to put the US in a position where it has publicly distanced itself from the idea of attacking Iran if/when Iran attacks Israel. The US linked Iranian restraint to Israeli behavior- but I do not think the US has the necessary control of Israeli behavior, because it can't control Nuttinyahoo, as his life and freedom depend on remaining war-time PM of Israel. That link must be broken, and it seems Israelis are at last attempting to break it. When Nutty's position becomes too unstable, he can take the Pahlevi option and seek medical treatment in the US. In the meantime, it's quite likely that Iran will, in fact, strike Israeli military infrastructure and/or ports, energy infrastructure, and the US will not take any retaliatory action,
Posted by: Honzo | Apr 8 2024 13:23 utc | 40
Thank you, b. The damage is enormous; the response has been exceptional in world terms. Yesterday was the feast of the Annunciation. Let it be according to thy word, O Lord - peace.
Posted by: juliania | Apr 8 2024 13:24 utc | 41
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 8 2024 13:04 utc | 33
It's all bark from the Poles and then it will be a big NOTHING.
I'm willing to bet that Israel will give ZERO compensation to the murdered man's family.
=====================================================
Making a deal with Lying Murderers is a delusion.
It's been 6 months of getting away with the worst crimes imaginable yet ...
they are getting away with it.
Reaction: More money and more arms.
Posted by: Tom_12 | Apr 8 2024 13:26 utc | 42
Now would be the time for Hamas and/or Hezbollah to push back - take it to the Israelis. Attack the retiring forces leaving Gaza, increase the pressure on the West Bank to push the land thieves out, Launch an ooperation to take back the Golan Heights. The idea of letting Israel just quit slaughtering people with no retribution is, to me, unacceptable. Reparations for the destruction in Gaza is obviously out of the question, but the shoe now has to go on the other foot. The fence around Gaza must come down. Meanwhile the Iranian response to the embasy bombing in Syria is an asunto pendente.
Posted by: c | Apr 8 2024 13:26 utc | 43
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 8 2024 13:04 utc | 33
The vassals might throw a few barks but Israel will put them all in line very quickly. It would be a miracle if there were even 5% of EU state ruling politicians of which Israel doesn't have some incriminating information, like from Epstein island.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 8 2024 13:33 utc | 44
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 8 2024 13:22 utc | 38
>Why is Rafah being bombed right now?
I think B hit the hopium pipe too soon.
As I posted above, the Rafah assault is happening and Bibi is just waiting for Ramadan to end and the fig-leaf of Cairo talks to fail, which it appears that they have.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 8 2024 13:34 utc | 46
Zionists now having proved to be no better than Nazis.
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 8 2024 13:15 utc | 35
They always operated in that way
Posted by: Tom_12 | Apr 8 2024 13:36 utc | 47
Defeat DOES have a way of forcing one to come to one’s senses.
Nonetheless, WAR CRIMES MUST BE PUNISHED. Capital punishment for the leaders of the rogue state, significant loss of territory, restrictions on military capabilities going forward. AND… cultural extinction of the ZioNazi Ideology, dismantling of their religious and educational institutions which propagate their sense of Superiority and Entitlement over the rest of Humanity. Continuous public ridicule of them as a People, until they are ashamed of what their Fathers were and join the rest of us as equals.
Posted by: OldFart | Apr 8 2024 13:37 utc | 48
Israeli doctor blows the whistle on a Israeli like Guantánamo Bay where Palestinians are brutally tortured including being mauled by dogs electrocuted starved etc.
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/04/05/israeli-doctor-blows-whistle-on-war-crimes/
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 8 2024 13:39 utc | 49
Posted by: Giyane | Apr 8 2024 11:41 utc | 11
His praise will ever be on my lips.
Posted by: Mary | Apr 8 2024 13:41 utc | 50
How do we know that the IDF troops being pulled out are not just due a bit of R&R, afterall the murdering of Palestinians by the Zionists has now been going on for a full six months.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 8 2024 13:48 utc | 51
There are still almost 2M hungry Palestinians with nothing to eat and nowhere to go.
Making Gaza inhospitable for Palestinians is perhaps the single objective that the zionist scum has achieved.
Someone would need to force the US to pay for the reconstruction & aid effort.
Posted by: marcel | Apr 8 2024 13:50 utc | 52
Republicofscotland | Apr 8 2024 13:39 utc | 48
Guantanamo was/is appalling but this is much worse.
Every prisoner in the hospital is cuffed all the time at both wrists and ankles. This sort of sadism is far worse than the treatment at Auschwitz too, it is, so far as I, who know very little about such matters I am happy to say, can see unlike anything else. It is not just individual sadism but sadism on an industrial scale.
Posted by: bevin | Apr 8 2024 13:51 utc | 53
Israel has taste of blood in it's mouth. They like it. Want more. The chance they will backtrack towards rationality seems small.
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 8 2024 13:57 utc | 54
Tom_12 | Apr 8 2024 13:36 utc | 46--
Thanks for your reply. Yes, for those of us paying close attention, you are correct; but now the Global Majority now sees that also, including those nations that abet the Genocide. This realization greases the skids toward the Global Fracture into two Blocs. The Big Picture is where we need to see what's happening. And this won't be just some flash in the pan happening but an event that is/will change the global dynamic.
….. Someone would need to force the US to pay for the reconstruction & aid effort.
Posted by: marcel | Apr 8 2024 13:50 utc | ……..
The Israeli Central Bank has $200 billion of assets.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 8 2024 13:59 utc | 56
oldhippie | Apr 8 2024 13:57 utc | 53--
Unmentioned by b is the escalation of the internal feud within Occupied Palestine that's also applying pressure--it's not just the illegal squatters who want to return to their hovels, but a curious collection of factions. Crooke's SCF essay is out, but I've yet to read it or listen to his weekly chat with the Judge, "Brutal, chaotic war – norms, conventions and laws of conduct are being erased".
“ is there ANY dark horse out there that the American people can "elect" to lead their nation with some competence?”
No.
Posted by: Fred777 | Apr 8 2024 14:05 utc | 58
This week's chat is here, "Alastair Crooke: Western Thinking About War".
I hope that the approach to dealing with the zionists now being taken by the Houtis and all of the other arab and Islamic inhabitants in the neighborhood will be somewhat permanent.
In the US and elsewhere, I hope that the AIPAC and their ilk will be more clearly seen for what it is and begin to lose its ability to so easily buy politicians. It all begins with pumping less US tax dollars into Israel to be laundered back.
Posted by: dpy | Apr 8 2024 14:09 utc | 60
"Israel has taste of blood in it's mouth. They like it. Want more. The chance they will backtrack towards rationality seems small."
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 8 2024 13:57 utc | 53
I grew up on a farm. Once a dog has tasted sheep's blood you can never stop the dog from killing more sheep. Had to put two dogs down after they tasted sheep's blood.
The Zionists, as you adroitly put it, have now the same fetid, foul fetish and they will have to be eventually be put down, cause, just like blooded canines, they will never stop.
AI@36......"From the River to the Sea, Palestine shall be free."
It's a blues song by N Ireland musician Karl Devlin.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 8 2024 14:12 utc | 62
Very nice to witness how Iran's bazaar culture of haggling in the marketplace might bring peace.
As for Israel itself, they're stuck in perpetual misery. They can't get rid of Netanyahu because nobody can put a coalition together as he can. OTOH, I think Israel is likely to be bleeding secularists/Labour types who truly keep the nation going. And they can't get the Torah Study bums to join the army or be useful. Good Luck with all of that.
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 8 2024 14:12 utc | 63
[email protected] it's not one or two rogue farm dogs, it a pack of elite wolves, coyotes and rabid dogs, and remember, rabid dogs never question why, there's is to do and die.
Cheers M
....and yes wolves don't like coyotes but they still interbreed with them....
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 8 2024 14:20 utc | 64
The retreat of the brigades from Gaza was immediately followed by resistance rocket fire from the previously 'held' territory.
If Iran negotiated any softening of the Izzraeli stance it would appear Hamas didn't get that particular memo or has no intention of playing ball.
We're now left with a multiple choice question:
Q: Did the IDF withdraw due to
a) pressure initiated by Iran?
b) getting the pants beat off them by Hamas (combined with Hezbollah pressure in the North)?
c) All of the above?
My answer: b) ... because withdrawals have happened before, primarily due to this very reason.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 14:27 utc | 65
This week's chat is here, "Alastair Crooke: Western Thinking About War".
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 8 2024 14:07 utc | 58
In Crooke's latest I find clear condemnation and of IDF actions against civilians in Gaza and an unmistakable tone of empathy when describing those atrocities.
This essentially debunks Pq's earlier assertion that Crooke never indicated any empathy with the Palestinian people and condemnation of Izzraeli actions in Palestine.
The more one listens to crooke, the more ridiculous Pq's attempts at character assassination become.
The more one observes the actions of the Middle Eastern Satrapies of the West (i.e, most Middle Eastern states), the more suspicious Pq's coddling of them begins to appear.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 14:32 utc | 66
The aim of Hamas' Al Aqsa Flood operation was to shatter the feeling of security and invincibility with he Zionist population of Israel. It has been successful in this.
The Israeli government has yet found no way to compensate for it.
Posted by b on April 8, 2024 at 10:46 UTC | Permalink
We may argue about everything else but at this time this much at least is true.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 14:38 utc | 67
CEASEFIRE TALKS FAIL:
https://www.newarab.com/news/hopes-eid-truce-dashed-iran-fm-visits-syria
Now we wait for Ramadan to end and see what happens.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 8 2024 14:38 utc | 68
canuck @ 60
What is happening is tragedy. Definition of tragedy is once the play is in action the Act Five result is inevitable.
This has been coming since 1948 if not before. This is Act Five.
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 8 2024 14:41 utc | 69
BUT -- what will Trump do? 9And is there ANY dark horse out there that the American people can "elect" to lead their nation with some competence?
Posted by: ChasMark | Apr 8 2024 12:40 utc | 28
###########
No man can fill every belly, win every war, and make every child beautiful and intelligent.
The material world has flaws.
Nonetheless, people continue to BELIEVE in the next Presidential Messiah who promises to kill a few less brown people than the last Chosen One.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 8 2024 14:42 utc | 70
Without support from the U.S. there is no way for Israel to continue a fight. Netanyahoo had to give up and did so.
Surprisingly bold, for a customarily cautious commentator such as b. Also (grossly, quite uncharacteristically) mistaken, I think.
It's true that US backing is key, but there's an implication here that said "support" is ending in any significant way, and that's false. Netanyahu wouldn't even know how to "give up" if his life depended on it. USUK48 has tasted blood, to paraphrase oldhippie, and wants more.
This has never been a war, despite Oct. 7th theatrics. We're still in Act One of a three-act play called The Final Solution to the Palestinian Problem. The stage is filled with rubble, and this bulldozer has no reverse gear.
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Apr 8 2024 14:45 utc | 71
Iranian media report now that a deal has been made in negotiations between Iran and the U.S. Iran will refrain from a direct attack on Israel if the U.S. guarantees a ceasefire in Gaza: Fucking priceless! Now they can make guarantees, wtf.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 8 2024 14:47 utc | 72
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Apr 8 2024 12:02 utc | 15
How come the Catholics welcomed the arrival of the British Army in 1968?
Posted by: bwwe | Apr 8 2024 14:50 utc | 73
"Hamas leader Sami Abu Zuhri told Anatolia: We deal flexibly with the Cairo negotiations while the occupation insists on limiting them to the exchange of prisoners and allowing a limited return of the displaced, and this does not lead to a successful agreement."
Posted by: Ornot | Apr 8 2024 14:56 utc | 74
Iran will refrain from a direct attack on Israel if the U.S. guarantees a ceasefire in Gaza
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 8 2024 14:47 utc | 71
Take heart, the Houthi are on a rampage in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. Whatever deals the Iranians cut with the Great Satan are not being observed by the Houthi.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 14:56 utc | 75
Failure here to see that Iran is weak. They don’t control Hamas nor the Ansar Allah movement. Events are going to overtake B’s wishful thinking.
Posted by: Screwtape | Apr 8 2024 14:57 utc | 76
Failure here to see that Iran is weak.
Posted by: Screwtape | Apr 8 2024 14:57 utc | 75
The very opposite it true.
There is a clear understanding of Iran's weakness. However, there is also an understanding that it's strengths allow it to fight the Empire asymmetrically.
The Empire has been deterred by Iran's asymmetric strengths.
If this were not true Iran would look like Iraq and Libya by now.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 15:01 utc | 77
One more thing, about those six "international aid workers" assassinated by the Zionist entity. Many anomalies accompany this "tragedy" -- among which we will not include the extreme racism our disproportionate angst. That stench is so overpowering, it has been noted elsewhere.
What interests me is the notable lack of background / mini-bio information about the six. Usually, in like "tragedies," we're saturated with the grief of friends and relatives, fondly reminiscing over the old days. About this bunch, I've so far heard almost zip.
Maybe this lack of interest has something to do with staffing policy -- how the human resources department operates out at World CIA Kitchen. Larry Johnson has commented on the ex-military aroma of all those guys. Did we just see an echo of what happened to the USS Liberty?
Posted by: Aleph_Null | Apr 8 2024 15:02 utc | 78
[email protected] One? Meanwhile the audience rearranges the deck chairs on Das Boat..
If as you say Netanyahu wouldn't know how to give up.... obviously his life doesn't depend on it, maybe he got the same guarantee Zman of 404 fame got.....they always have a get out of jail free card for themselves.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 8 2024 15:04 utc | 79
Just thinking, I know a dangerous hobby. We know the entity is awaiting an Iranian strike. What if, what if the empire passed on Benny the butcher’s (B da B) geo-location to Iranians for the strike? It would solve multiple problems for the empire and RoW. Well, just a thought.
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Apr 8 2024 15:04 utc | 80
A giant outcome from the ICC finding of probable cause showing that Israel and its leaders may have perpetrated the crime of Genocide against the people of Gaza is that International law is likely to become legitimate and enforceable. Many have been trying to make International Law relevant to crimes against humanity for some time.
As the people of the world experience more and more nation state intolerance to human life, it is just natural that the governed people of the world will find a way both
1) to codify into legal statutes laws that allow adjudication and
2) to punish those who abuse or infringe on human rights anywhere in the world.
Abuse of human rights statutes would be effective against any person, group, corporation or nation state, or international body that is found guilty of, or is a contributor to those
who have been found guilty of crimes against humanity [genocide and assisting those who commit genocide for example].
International coordination against the "use of force" or "abuse of power"; something which courts can use to reign-in those, who until now, have operated as a corrupt and lawless holier-than-thou governing society or economic entity inflicting, at their pleasure, abuses against governed humanity, is in plain view because of the ICC probably of Genocide finding concerning Gaza.
Its time to push for a 2nd government [the Audit Government, a government tasked to impose protection of human rights as a duty on those who are the governed]. Such a 2nd government would govern those who govern us (members of the traditional governments).
Its time to subordinate everyone who governs, or who leads who operates under of authority of a fiction (government, corporation, partnership, trust, NGO, etc) to uphold and to defend the basic human rights: right to life, liberty, freedom, equal justice, and right to travel between nations without fear or abuse as a consequence of their travels or resettlement.
https://www.rt.com/news/595553-nicaragua-germany-genocide-israel-icj/
Posted by: snake | Apr 8 2024 15:06 utc | 81
If Hamas' tunnels are such a peril for Israel it should have developed an AI-based plan and announced it to the world as a strategic and more humane way of rendering Hamas inoperative in Gaza.
Posted by: Ludo | Apr 8 2024 13:06 utc | 34
The fact is their technology is rubbish and doesn't work.
Announcing it to the world would eventually expose it as the charlatanism and snake oil it is.
And there will vanish the myth of their technological prowess, along with the myth of their eternal victimhood, long with the myth of their entitlement to Arab lands.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 15:10 utc | 82
it all hinged on the usa.. interesting... usa - warmonger personified, had a change of heart with regard to israels warmongering..
usa might be able to get a deal with iran, but i don't think they get a deal with the houthis.. will they actually get a deal with israel is the question... how long before israel goes off the reserve again? i get the impression israel is ripe for serious change and i am not sure it is a good thing, but more of a radicalization of the culture with deep divisions within...
Posted by: james | Apr 8 2024 15:11 utc | 83
Let’s step back and review the military situation after six months:
1) The Likud believes this is yet another pesky Lawn mowing operation. The Likud believes the 800 meter killing zone created inside the periphery of the Gaza fence will provide security. Likud believes with the killing zone is nearly completely barren, it’s time to pull out and punish Lebanon. The Likud wants the hot war lawn mowing operation to end quickly
2) The various Arab resistance units believe they have, and continue to, decisively defeat the IDF units in ground combat. The Arabs believe a long hot war favors their goals.
Conclusion - if the Arabs can continue to force the IDF to stay mobilized ; if the Arabs can continue to raid in Israel proper - AND if the Arabs can keep this war hot for another 4 to 6 months; then maybe the Likud will finally come to the table and accept the Arab peace offer based on the 242 lines.
The risk for the Likud is that after 6 more months of military success, the Arabs maybe inclined to want a peace based on the 181 lines.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 8 2024 15:12 utc | 84
Its time to push for a 2nd government [the Audit Government, a government tasked to impose protection of human rights as a duty on those who are the governed]. Such a 2nd government would govern those who govern us (members of the traditional governments).
Posted by: snake | Apr 8 2024 15:06 utc | 80
No thanks, leave me out of your Satanic New World Order. I for one want nothing to do with the Chabad Lubovitch/Freemasonic plan for world domination.
Anarchy is the Way.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 15:12 utc | 85
It has been discussed previously, but I don't think World Central Kitchen is exactly a charity organization.
Posted by: lex talionis | Apr 8 2024 15:15 utc | 86
The risk for the Likud is that after 6 more months of military success, the Arabs maybe inclined to want a peace based on the 181 lines.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 8 2024 15:12 utc | 83
The bigger risk for Likud (and Izrael) is that this time the Arabs may not want peace at all, along any lines ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 15:19 utc | 87
What is happening with the highway the IDF was building in Gaza from the sea to the Jordan border? Alternate route to Suez Canal. That started almost immediately with the invasion of Gaza. Surely that project will not be abandoned.
Posted by: Alpi | Apr 8 2024 15:27 utc | 88
Let's hope the assessment is correct and Iran can indeed pressurize Israel and the US into a stable ceasefire.
Unfortunately, however, fake withdrawals are a popular tactic for terrorist regimes: let the other side think they won, wait for them to come out and celebrate on the streets - then pound them with everything you got. Besides raking lots of people, this move destroys morale and the will to fight like nothing else.
Of course, this works both ways: Netanyhu thought he won for some time now. Hard to see how he could possibly survive, even physically, a permanent "ceasefire" that could only be seen as unconditional surrender.
Posted by: Marvin | Apr 8 2024 15:29 utc | 89
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 14:27 utc | 64
######
I think it is important to remember that Hamas' goal wasn't to kill Israelis or to bloody the Empire's nose.
Anything less than a Palestinian state is a failure.
As Sinwar has indicated several times, "Victory or death."
I don't believe that Brooklyn Jewish "settlers" can to meet that level of commitment.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 8 2024 15:30 utc | 90
Surely that project will not be abandoned.
Posted by: Alpi | Apr 8 2024 15:27 utc | 87
The Netzarim Corridor has not been abandoned. An IDF force has been left to guard it.
It may potentially be the last thing in Gaza the IDF chooses to hold, even in the event of a withdrawal.
And if so, failing all else, they would at least achieve the goal of splitting the Gaza concentration camp into an even tinier corral ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 15:30 utc | 91
@Exile
Good analysis. The West particularly Israel and the US are under economic duress and can Ill afford another six months of war in the ME. Shipping rates have skyrocketed, arms are being depleted (and cannot be shifted to Ukraine), and Israel’s GDP has shit-napped.
Now gold and oil are breaking out too.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 8 2024 15:32 utc | 92
"“If Israel cannot achieve a framework for this, and I don’t know of one, then we are entering a very big problem for Israel,” he concluded."
Do ya think?! Maybe you should have thought about it a bit before jumping head first into a trap.
The military and political brilliance of this operation is really amazing. Not the Apartheid State one. They have led them around by the nose from the moment they broke out 10/7.
Posted by: snake | Apr 8 2024 15:06 utc | 80
You meant ICJ not ICC, right?
Posted by: AI | Apr 8 2024 15:49 utc | 94
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 8 2024 13:04 utc | 33
It's all bark from the Poles and then it will be a big NOTHING.
I'm willing to bet that Israel will give ZERO compensation to the murdered man's family.
------
I will not take the bet. Although UK and US governments may need to show something positive, the domination of Friends of Israel shows some cracks... the deference of Galut to Aliya is also less solid. Perhaps a small even bet...
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 8 2024 15:50 utc | 95
I don't see anything in the news so far that indicates that either Hamas or AnsarAllah are going to take orders from anybody until they get what they have demanded from the beginning of this fandango; and I don't see that anybody is in a position to make them. (Hamas would seem to be in a less secure position, but their opponents are not in a secure position too; if they can hold out, time is on their side. The chance won't come again.) I am waiting to see if Iran asks them both to "reasonable" or not, and under what conditions. So far, all of Iran's conditions have been addressed to the Izzies and Uncle Sugar. They must produce a cease-fire, let in aid, etc.
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 8 2024 15:52 utc | 96
The backing of Iran by Russia and China has 2 positive effects. Firstly, the Iranians haven't lashed out at Israel, and secondly, the US can't play the terrorist Iran card when Russia and China are backing up their non terrorist state ally.
Israel is in a very precarious place, they need to calm down quickly. Bibi is a lunatic, but he is the key to solving this madness.
I suspect the US will push for the removal of all corruption charges against Bibi and guarantees for his safety. This would be the smart move.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Apr 8 2024 15:57 utc | 97
The metrics that I will be looking for are, 1. a severe diminishing of the Mossad assassination programs for Hamas (and Iranian scientists, etc.). 2. The Gaza fisherman being able to go out and further out for fishing. 3. A cessation of israeli strikes on the Bekka region and north of the Litani. 4. 600 trucks a day minimum with vetting of cargos done by Egyptians, UN, etc. etc. 5. Water and electricity restored.
I still reel over Smotrich's 6 sq km land steal on the West Bank after one of the worst year in decades for land grabs in the West Bank.
Posted by: paxmark1 | Apr 8 2024 15:58 utc | 98
Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 14:56 utc | 74
Whatever deals the Iranians cut with the Great Satan are not being observed by the Houthi
Seems the Houthi have other ideas.
Posted by: john | Apr 8 2024 16:00 utc | 99
The metrics that I will be looking for are, ...
Posted by: paxmark1 | Apr 8 2024 15:58 utc | 98
I'm afraid you will little to no meaningful improvement in those metrics.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 8 2024 16:00 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Good news
Posted by: merkin scot | Apr 8 2024 10:56 utc | 1