The Resistance Axis Penetrated The Zionist Security Screen
On October 7 2023 Hamas breached the fence around Gaza. It infiltrated military installations and Kibbutzes with the intent to take as many hostages as possible. These were to be taken into Gaza for future prisoner exchanges.
Despite local warnings the leadership of the Zionist entity was surprised by the move. Its overreaction and the Hannibal directive led to the death of many hostages.
The event was a shock to the Israeli public. It had felt secure. October 7 and the six months of fighting in Gaza and at the northern border have changed that.
But the danger so far came only from mere militia, Hizbullah and Hamas. While those are capable they do lack the instruments of a full fledged nation state.
Still overconfident of its own capabilities the leadership of the Zionist entity made a second mistake. It had already attacked Iranian envoys in Syria and Lebanon. It topped that with an attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria. It did not expect Iran to respond to it.
But pushed by its own population Iran had to respond. It had to do so in a way that was convincing but would not lead to further escalations. A very difficult to achieve balance.
Its attack on Israeli airbases in the Negev and a Mossad base on the Golan heights were successful despite the facts that:
- Israel and everybody else was warned of the strike
- several Israeli allies - the U.S., UK, France, Jordan - added their significant means to help Israeli air defenses
- the targets were one of the most difficult to strike.
As Scott Ritter opines:
The U.S. has an advanced AN/TPY-2 X-band radar stationed at Har Qeren, in the Negev desert. Its mission is to detect Iranian missile launches, and pass targeting data to Israeli Arrow and David’s Sling and U.S. THAAD ABM batteries deployed to protect sensitive Israeli sites, including Dimona and the Nevatim and Ramon air bases.Iranian missiles struck both Nevatim and Ramon air bases. The best surveillance radar in the world, working in concert with the most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world, were impotent in the face of the Iranian attack.
I would argue that the "best surveillance radar in the world" and the "most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world" are likely whatever the Russians have.
But anyway.
The attack pushed through all defenses and hit the assigned targets. (How precise it did so will not be known for quite some time.)
It was a technically impressive and resoundingly successful operation.
Israel will likely refrain from hitting back. If simply because it has no effective defense against a similar strike and certainly not enough of anything to fend of a series of such strikes.
Just ask yourself. What would happen:
- if Iran were to strike without warning?
- if Israeli allies were unprepared or unwilling to counter a strike?
- if Iran would hit more valuable and/or non-military industrial targets?
Any such attack could be catastrophic for Israel.
Security for its Jewish population is the core reason of the Zionist state. It was the argument Israel made to further immigration.
Israel is no longer secure. It can no longer do as it wants without having to fear the consequences.
It will take some time for this fact to sink into the Zionists' mind.
But it will.
In consequence of October 7 and April 14 the Zionist population of Israel may well decrease.
Posted by b on April 15, 2024 at 13:20 UTC | Permalink
next page »B, the ultimate aim of the current Israeli regime is to pull the United States into a broader war with Iran, while itself staying free of nuclear attack from Russia and KSA. There is no target important enough to genuinely threaten Israel as a state without provoking that war, so that "catastrophic" attack is not going to come.
But the October 6th attack was so successful that further Iranian retaliation isn't strictly necessary. Israel knows it is in very serious trouble, and eventually Benji is going to get shot by his own security staff if that's what it takes to calm things down.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Apr 15 2024 13:29 utc | 2
One notes that the Iranian strikes killed no women and no children. One notes that no hospitals were destroyed. One thinks that for months and years the Izzyhells have been swaggering and braggering about their slaughter of innocents. Such heros killing babies and starving entire populations. Now that the grown ups have stood up, the thieving little bullies are scared and running away. Unfortunately for the world, where ever they run to will be polluted by their "Me-Mine" mentality.
Posted by: Formerly Miss Lacy | Apr 15 2024 13:34 utc | 3
Agree, b.
So what the west media have been doing in the past 48 hours, self-congratulating on the intangibles, such as US leadership, joint efforts with some Arabs, and not much visible damages. Have you seen any discussion on the collapse of the myth of Fortress Israel and its historical significance?
Of course not. They are only good at narratives. Rhetorical spinning will not win wars, only hard resolve and strength win wars.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Apr 15 2024 13:41 utc | 4
If anyone wonders what is happening in Ukraine (that ongoing "fighting until the last Ukrainian") - just google for "population Odessa 1870", and you will find out who once lived there, and why this war of ukrainian depopulation maybe has a deeper sense, and who will live there again in the future.
For me that all it feels like "Games of Thrones"...
Posted by: Klaus | Apr 15 2024 13:41 utc | 5
If anyone wonders what is happening in Ukraine (that ongoing "fighting until the last Ukrainian") - just google for "population Odessa 1870", and you will find out who once lived there, and why this war of ukrainian depopulation maybe has a deeper sense, and who will live there again in the future.
For me that all it feels like "Games of Thrones"...
Posted by: Klaus | Apr 15 2024 13:41 utc | 6
Historians will one day note how Putin taught warfare and diplomacy to the world - while the West shut it's eyes and ears. A measured, cerebral approach from Iran that accomplishes its purpose while the Western media brays propaganda. If Israel isn't afraid, they should be. Iran is learning.
Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 15 2024 13:44 utc | 7
(1)
thanks for the great read, highly topical yet to my surprise 12 years old
Posted by: lm | Apr 15 2024 13:52 utc | 8
Plus support of Germany and likely The Netherlands … Mark Rutte pro-Israel biased as VVD leader, fan of NATO since July 2014, will be rewarded by Joe B. (see Dilan Yesilgöz as successor, darling of Dutch Likud lobby CIDI, against ban on Quran burning by Pegida, against pro-Palestine protest)
Window of Opportunity for the U.S., a Coalition to Defend Israel and Complicit in Murder of Palestinians
"In consequence of October 7 and April 14 the Zionist population of Israel may well decease."
Fixed it for y'all.
Posted by: Rubiconned | Apr 15 2024 13:55 utc | 10
Below is what I posted before I went to bed last night plus a smarmy Reuters posting title this morning
ZH has a posting up with the title
'Not Looking For A Significant Escalation' - Israel Threatens Imminent Response To Iranian Attack, Then Walks It Back
What does that tell you about the effects of the Iranian strikes?
If there is further escalation, I expect it to be sooner rather than later because Occupied Palestine is running out of directions to go and there are no rumors of unconditional surrender like in Ukraine, yet......grin
Occupied Palestine is forced to do stupid things to retain what seems like the initiative....what does more ugly look like?....I don't want to know.
From Reuters this morning
Israel says it shot down Iranian salvo 'shoulder-to-shoulder' with U.S.
Its called lipstick on a pig
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 15 2024 14:01 utc | 11
Iran has had 40+ years to prepare to teach Jewrael a lesson it'll never forget. All Iran asked for was a ceasefire in Gaza. That would have averted its recent attack on Jewrael. But that was probably too simple a concept for Jewrael and its Western jew$lave$ to grasp.
So if jewrael attacks Iran in revenge, I'm predicting that Iran will destroy Jewrael's ability to bomb Gaza from a safe distance before it declares Mission Accomplished.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 15 2024 14:04 utc | 12
How likely is it that Russians supplied Iran with advanced hypersonic glide warheads? There are insinuations that these type of weapons were used in Iran’s attacks.
Posted by: Milos | Apr 15 2024 14:05 utc | 13
Contrast the Iranian missiles strikes on purely military targets, with the IDF slaughter and maiming of over 100,000 innocent civilians in the West Bank and Gaza.............
....and then tell me there were no war crimes committed by the IDF...............
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Apr 15 2024 14:05 utc | 14
A lot will be migrating to Argentina. Milei’s installation?
Posted by: bbeer | Apr 15 2024 14:07 utc | 15
Ooohh burn ! Thanks for the laugh b.
“I would argue that the "best surveillance radar in the world" and the "most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world" are likely whatever the Russians have.
But anyway.”
It is true about how much would burn if the Resistance were to make an unannounced 360 degree attack! Imagine 3000 such items sent over not 300. Pretty much the whole infrastructure could be levelled without targeting actual ‘civilians’ of the Illegal Apartheid Entity. No energy or water or sewage - kinda biblical.
As a poster on a previous thread has noted there appear to be queues at airports of illegal settler colonists going somewhere. Whether that is on a holiday for Passover or the vanguard of the new Passover Exodus back to where they belong is not clear yet.
If it’s the former they are the wisest imperialists who have seen they are done and going before forced.
I advise the rest of the Zios to Get The Hell Out of Dodge, in a organised fashion instead of scrambling to get on planes and trying to take more luggage than allowed to some refugee camps in the Waste.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 15 2024 14:09 utc | 16
I can't believe that Ritter, who to be fair does tend to get excitable, says the Iranian's breached the "best surveillance radar in the world" and the "most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world"
As B states the "best surveillance radar in the world" and the "most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world" are likely whatever the Russians have.
Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 15 2024 14:09 utc | 17
They call me Mister 2
Poor little Israel is now threatened by nuclear attacks from Saudi Arabia and Moscow. Pause .. sob... sob ...sob.
Poor little Benji is now threatened by attacks from his own security guards. Sob....sob....sob.
Victim playing after demolishing Gaza and shutting off the water and food.
I feel sick.
Posted by: Giyane | Apr 15 2024 14:10 utc | 18
@ Milos 13
As I said on the other tread.
Any medium-range missile, when the warhead reaches the target, develops hypersonic speed.....The only country with a true hypersonic missile is Russia with the Zircon.
Russia wouldn't give away anything like that to Iran or any other country.
Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 15 2024 14:18 utc | 19
This is understated, imho:
Israel will likely refrain from hitting back. If simply because it has no effective defense against a similar strike and certainly not enough of anything to fend of a series of such strikes.
Stopping the first wave is one thing, stopping the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and also the seventh wave
is quite another thing.
Lead with your pawns - your weaker but more numerous weapons - then gradually build, including more and more of the blockbusters.
Can Israel afford to chance putting that to the test?
Posted by: librul | Apr 15 2024 14:20 utc | 20
Posted by: Milos | Apr 15 2024 14:05 utc | 13
Iran announced successful hypersonics some time ago. I assumed at the time that Russia gave them at least a start on it.
However, I think it was Simplicius who noted in his analysis of video that the Iranian missiles appeared to possibly be faster on entry than Russia's.
Iranians are very, very advanced in science & math. So could go either way.
Yemen also recently announced their 1st successful hypersonic test, with plans to manufacture in house. I'm pretty sure they got the tech from Iran. No time to develop when you're under constant attack from Zionist US.
Posted by: Mary | Apr 15 2024 14:21 utc | 21
Imagine trying to convince the Likud that’s it’s time to cut their losses and accept the pre-1967 lines for a lasting and secure peace as offered by the Arabs.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 15 2024 14:23 utc | 22
Thanks b for your analysis. I made some of the same points in my post on the last thread. I imagine that the Empire is squirming in their diapers about now. What to do, what to do. Schadenfreude is most enjoyable right now. The futures so bright, I have to wear shades. Hahaha.
Posted by: Immaculate deception | Apr 15 2024 14:23 utc | 23
Once Israel realizes it has to play on an even playing field, it will have to change its political culture. No more bully tactics with the US holding its hand. The war hawk Republicans in Congress are rushing to Israel's defense, but the popular polls say something else. Both Israel and the Israel-bought-Congress will get the message eventually.
Posted by: Janet | Apr 15 2024 14:25 utc | 24
First of all, oct 7 was a LIHOP, and triggered deliberately by Israel, either directly (through agents in Hamas) or indirectly via provocation. The brilliance of Hamas was in first, out-performing expectations in the raid into Israel, and second, understanding and preparing for the Israeli counterstrike to prolong the conflict, which Israel cannot sustain on its own. The conditions created by the SMO in Ukraine also mean that Israel's backers in the west have limited ability to come to Israel's aid.
US power projection is already on the wane globally. It faces a choice between 1) a carefully managed retreat to a zone that it can control more effectively and that has less power to resist (the Americas); 2) an externally forced withdrawal via shut down of the Persian Gulf; or 3) Existential conflict that the US cannot win and which they and everyone else will probably lose very badly.
1) is the obvious choice for the US, and we can see steps being taken in that direction- narrative change, gradual purging of some of the worst neocons, delays, symbolic rather than materially effective responses, and so on. The US power structure, however, is a supertanker full of monkeys who are all able to access things that affect the course of the ship of state in various ways. It's a slow process to turn such a vessel around, and there are perils if the wrong monkeys get their hands on key controls. Monkey-on-monkey conflict within and around the apparatus of state is going to increase until the ship is on a new course, or until full scale war or economic collapse intervene, at which point there will probably be a housecleaning one way or another.
What the RoW wants and is trying very hard to manage is option 1), and for the internal conflicts in the US power structure to be worked out without breaking out into large scale violence, which could lead to option 3) in a heartbeat. There are those in the US power structure who desire the same thing, but there are also those that for reasons ranging from psychopathy to inordinate pride to complete ideological delusion, will risk anything to continue on the Neocon course. The Neocons will eventually lose, because they are ancient and dying off, if nothing else, what remains to be seen is how much of the rest of the world they can take with them.
Posted by: Honzo | Apr 15 2024 14:25 utc | 25
After the demise of Israel, there will be no new Jewish State.
There is no Country in the World that could or would welcome a new Jewish enclave populated by deranged psychopaths armed with nuclear weapons, as a neighbour.
How long would it be before that enclave decided to widen its borders at the expense of its neighbours?
How would Europe, (or anywhere else), like to have the hornets nest that is the present “Israel” in its midst?
My family has Jewish roots; I don’t feel the need to share my living space with crazies like Netanyahu and his ilk.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Apr 15 2024 14:27 utc | 26
@b
The @IbnRiad account - the "resoundingly successful" link - in this thread's OP is blocked in most of EU by Twitter by legal demand, supposedly. If there is a screenshot or a way to bypass the block, it would be appreciated.
Posted by: pilipili | Apr 15 2024 14:34 utc | 27
This CNN headline is something else: "Israel delays Rafah offensive plans amid heated debate over response to Iranian attack" - https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/15/middleeast/israel-war-cabinet-iran-debate-intl/index.html
While I don't think the facts are quite so literal, having major US media running headlines to the effect of "Iranian intervention delays and disrupts planned war crimes" is kind of amazing.
Posted by: Bob | Apr 15 2024 14:36 utc | 28
DunGroanin 16
==============
That is what they always do---get outta dodge when whatever umbrella power they have latched on to starts to falter.
See, e.g., sassoon
Posted by: Jane | Apr 15 2024 14:37 utc | 29
@Old Sovietologist | Apr 15 2024 14:09 utc | 17
Maybe Scott meant "best" not best. Scott can also be sarcastic. Or maybe he meant best in the West. Or maybe it got a little rhetorically away from him.
He's better informed about Russian AD than most people on the planet so he could have stated that better.
Posted by: Another James | Apr 15 2024 14:40 utc | 30
@ Mary 21
You're right If the Iranian's have developed a true 'hypersonic' missile they have done it indigenously, which they could have However, I remain unconvinced they have developed anything like the Zircon.
As I have said any medium-range missile, when the warhead reaches the target, develops hypersonic speed so the Yemenis are not lying.
Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 15 2024 14:40 utc | 31
In consequence of October 7 and April 14 the Zionist population of Israel may well decrease.
What the people of Israel believe about October 7th and what *potential* new arrivals believe
about October 7th is what matters.
It doesn't matter what actually happened on Oct 7th it is what people believe.
There is the official version, there is what actually happened and
there is what people believe.
We have the official versions of, for example, September 11th, the JFK assassination,
Saddam's WMD etc, etc, etc, etc. In each case it took time for the number of people
understanding what bs the official versions is to increase. But over time more and more people understood.
It isn't officials that will be leaving Israel, it is people.
What people believe or come to believe is what matters.
The official version of Oct 7th will probably be just what you expect it to be.
Do I even need to state what that is here?
In whose interest is it for you to believe the official version?
And for how long will it take before you come around?
Posted by: librul | Apr 15 2024 14:43 utc | 32
This was not only a slap to the face of Israel, but to the face of every media-savvy so called "Iran expert" in the west who kept telling us Iran has no such capabilities.
Evidently their knowledge on the subject, or with anything regarding Iran, is of zero value.
Posted by: never mind | Apr 15 2024 14:46 utc | 33
First wave of this weeks's attack was a rather small swarm of Shahed-136. The so-called moped. They cost as much as a better moped and are assembly line produced like mopeds. This time it was swarms of fifty. Iran can launch a swarm of 1000. And keep on launching such swarms quite a while.
This was a modest demonstration and proportional response. Israel and US/UK/Jordan also demonstrated what they can do. One side was throttling back at idle. The other side was at their maximum capability and will have trouble even doing as much a second time.
Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 15 2024 14:50 utc | 34
There's here, in Eastern Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_Autonomous_Oblast
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 15 2024 14:50 utc | 35
pilipili | Apr 15 2024 14:34 utc | 27
I can see the tweet (don't have X so can't see the account) from my VPN which is currently near Berlin.
https://twitter.com/IbnRiad/status/1779525231440249260
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Apr 15 2024 14:55 utc | 36
That's some image of Iranian missiles flying over the Israeli Knesset, the game has changed Israel is no longer untouchable, right this minute the English PM is giving a speech on what to do about the strike on Israel, the English PM and its parliament appear to be still dazed at Iran's success but one thing is constant England supports Israel no matter what said the English PM.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 15 2024 14:56 utc | 37
There are Western commentators who are claiming that it was an indiscriminate attack on Israel and that massive loss of civilian life was avoided because of the effectiveness of the Israeli and allied defences.
The authorities on the ground however know the truth, and this will inform their future action.
Posted by: Peter Plail | Apr 15 2024 14:57 utc | 38
To try and prove there was a winner in this exchange between US/Israel and Iran is, in my mind, silly.
All three remind me of competing school yard bullies whose main concern is saving face so that rest of the school yard knows who is on top of the heap.
Please, please Mr. adult, wherever you are, you are needed desperately!
Posted by: Johnny Dollar | Apr 15 2024 14:58 utc | 39
thanks b..
so will israel change here?? i kind of doubt it... it might slowly fade away, but these folks don't seem the type to go silently into the night... what happens with israel here moving forward? and what about the usa? some say there is already a change inside the usa, but frankly i can't see it... fortress america is how a previous poster framed it.. @ 25 honzo does go into this later question.. thanks honzo..
Posted by: james | Apr 15 2024 14:59 utc | 40
Overnight raids killed 68 Palestinians with over 100 wounded. While chests be puffed, Palestinians still be dy'n.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 15 2024 15:00 utc | 41
Much fog still around the forewarning. Perhaps it was coupled to a counterintelligence operation.
Posted by: persiflo | Apr 15 2024 15:00 utc | 42
After the demise of Israel, there will be no new Jewish State.
There is no Country in the World that could or would welcome a new Jewish enclave populated by deranged psychopaths armed with nuclear weapons, as a neighbour.
How long would it be before that enclave decided to widen its borders at the expense of its neighbours?
How would Europe, (or anywhere else), like to have the hornets nest that is the present “Israel” in its midst?
My family has Jewish roots; I don’t feel the need to share my living space with crazies like Netanyahu and his ilk.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Apr 15 2024 14:27 utc | 26
Well, I wouldn't agree with the part about Israel and Judah, may I remind you that after Joshua, Israel, conquered Canaan (and left Gaza/Philistines alone), they lost to them but it was only after that Judah rose to prominence and unified Israel and Judah in Jerusalem. It is often good for understanding certain consistency problems to see Israel/Samaria and Judah as two different entities.
As for deranged psychopaths you might check the good neighborhood with Greeks in Cyprus 117 AD
not sound as off topic, the current state of the country Israel can be better understood as the decline of Israel (its apex already 35 years in the past, maybe it explains the fall of Labor in elections and the shift towards Likud ) and the birthing pains of Judah (that should be weaker than the Philistine for a short cycle of little more than a century, equivalent to the ending of the Judges section, don't consider this religion but social cycles in the are spanning millennia).
Posted by: Newbie | Apr 15 2024 15:09 utc | 43
The only big "if" to your conclusion about the Zionist ability/willingness to learn is the so-called "Samson Option". Israel cannot fight Iran with conventional means, and ultra-hardliners of the Ben Gvir and Smotrich ilk are already foaming by the mouth and asking for a "mad" response. This is a very dangerous moment indeed.
Posted by: Geraldo Luís Lino | Apr 15 2024 15:10 utc | 44
In search of lost manhood the IDF sent some foot soldiers across the Lebanese border to hunt down Hezbollah, but it appears they came off second best:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=N56Hs7MoxdE&si=v1TonML4u2EoPTlQ
It's been a long time since IDF soldiers have dared to venture into Lebanon on foot.
Desperation after last night?
Feeling the pressure to respond to Iran will they finally rush into Lebanon where even angels fear to tread?
(The setup resembles the events triggering the 2006 war. Is Beirut next on the menu?)
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 15 2024 15:10 utc | 45
Maria Zakharova bitch slaps Israeli ambassador ( metaphorically )
Ambassador Simona Halperin had earlier told the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti that her country expects “our Russian colleagues to condemn the unprecedented Iranian attack on Israeli territory.”
In a post on her Telegram channel on Sunday, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, responded: “Simona, remind me of when Israel condemned even a single strike by the Kiev regime on Russian regions? You don’t know? Nor do I.”
Posted by: Exile | Apr 15 2024 15:10 utc | 46
Rubiconned @10:
"In consequence of October 7 and April 14 the Zionist population of Israel may well decease."Fixed it for y'all.
Thank you. That statement is much more precise.
But know there are several ways for the zionist population to decline. The zionists could be killed, which some people would like.
The zionists could also move back to Newark, New Jersey. One wonders if zionist homicidal tendencies would be appreciated there? Perhaps the same US/EU crowd would still be cheering for the zionists if they were exterminating Black Americans instead of Palestinians.
The third possible cause for a decline in the population of zionists, and this one is by far my favorite, is if the zionists simply stop being zionists; just become human instead. The zionists need to take a deep breath and let go of the psychotic urge to kill, then perhaps take a look around and try to see those around them as their equals instead of as disposable animals.
But one way or the other, the zionist population is headed for significant decline.
Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 15 2024 15:15 utc | 47
Posted by: Milos | Apr 15 2024 14:05 utc | 13
Iran announced successful hypersonics some time ago. I assumed at the time that Russia gave them at least a start on it.
However, I think it was Simplicius who noted in his analysis of video that the Iranian missiles appeared to possibly be faster on entry than Russia's.
Iranians are very, very advanced in science & math. So could go either way.
Yemen also recently announced their 1st successful hypersonic test, with plans to manufacture in house. I'm pretty sure they got the tech from Iran. No time to develop when you're under constant attack from Zionist US.
Posted by: Mary | Apr 15 2024 14:21 utc | 21
Thanks, Mary well done.
@ Johnny Dollar | Apr 15 2024 14:58 utc | 39
Please, please Mr. adult, wherever you are, you are needed desperately!
Iran is the adult in the room who has spanked Israel soundly and sent them to bed.
But the question is. Will his friends will heed the warning, see the punishment and back off?
Posted by: golddigger | Apr 15 2024 15:25 utc | 49
Alternatively, if the line is now drawn at attacking sovereign territory or "pseudo-sovereign" territory (because embassy grounds are treated "as if" they were sovereign - a small but important difference), then "Israel" knows what not to do, or otherwise how to trigger direct Iran reaction.
By extension of the embassy sovereignty concept, nationals could also be considered sovereign "property". This because the notion ventured into regarding embassies is no longer a strictly territorial definition. Diplomatic immunity is an existing subsequent example.
So possibly the line could be moved further as prohibiting the targeting of Iranian nationals.
It also has to be asked if Iran only responded directly because of the level of international support against "Israel" at the moment.
Should Hamas be disassembled and Gaza be turned over to UN or international forces for example, would the Houthis continue on shipping, or would Iran still reply to covert strikes ?
While most regional countries remain contained, Iran is not able to take "Israel" either. Syria and Hezbollah do not have the ability to take "Israel".
Therefore recent events have so far only recalibrated the line of interaction between "Israel" and Iran.
From a "western" viewpoint, "Israel" just shrugs off the Iranian attack and has Iran on warning, while continuing to erase Gaza.
"Israel" might soon respond directly to Iran also, at which point the upheaval would become regional.
The political stability in to now abstaining or complicit countries in the region would not be so certain, so possibly opening new fronts against "Israel".
The leaders of these countries will also "dislike" "Israel" for breach of any understandings and for threatening their own domestic stability. Local populations already dislike "Israel" more than they do Iran, even while their countries rely on western support as defence.
Who has say if it all goes in that direction is not clear, often that is decided by who is left standing.
In other words another regional war with millions of casualties might result.
So for "Israel" to retaliate now openly would have to be understood as purposefully to that end. As the US is understood to have a decisive say on "Israeli" choice, it will be understood as a US choice also.
Posted by: Ornot | Apr 15 2024 15:26 utc | 50
" oct 7 was a LIHOP, and triggered deliberately by Israel, either directly (through agents in Hamas) or indirectly via provocation. .." Honzo@ 14:25 utc | 25
If it was, and it wasn't, it was a miscalculation of historic proportions.
I agree with b: any warnings that Israel received were ignored and discounted for reasons which are obviously related to the basic flaw in the zionist project- a fanatical inability to recognise the equality of mankind.
A 'national refuge and home for the Jews' would have been established long ago and without much resentment from Palestinians were it not that Zionists have to hype themselves up into believing that they are superior to others and capable of doing anything that they choose.
These unattractive and ultimately fatal characteristics, which were part of the intellectual heritage of the Pilgrim Fathers, can also be found in the polity of the United States- the ultimate case of a person born on Third Base convinced that he is a triple hitter.
A hard rain is gonna fall.
Posted by: bevin | Apr 15 2024 15:27 utc | 51
First time that I disagree with our host.
The attack was not successful and not technically impressive. We do not know what was hit and how. The Iranians also dont know otherwise they would have telegraphed this to the whole world. It is more probable that nothing important was hit.
Also what some blogger says about an advanced US radar that allegedly failed to detect and instruct the interceptors is not an argument on which one can base future behavior of the involved states.
This weak showing just emboldened the already fanatic pro-israel public in the West that there are no consequences from the Islamic world for anything they may do.
Also, suddenly both Israel and Ukraine packages will now go through in the US.
But I guess we will know soon enough whether I am right. If Israel responds.
Posted by: alek_a | Apr 15 2024 15:31 utc | 52
@bbeer | Apr 15 2024 14:07 utc | 15
A lot will be migrating to Argentina. Milei’s installation?Plan C now that 404 is no longer available, perhaps.
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2024 15:32 utc | 53
@Posted by: bevin | Apr 15 2024 15:27 utc | 50
"A man convinced against his will
is unconvinced still"
I don't believe that you are hasbara or even unintentionally a hasbara supporter.
I believe that you simply have your heels dug way in
and it will be a long time before your ego
gets out of the way.
We will all be glad when you let yourself come around.
And will gladly then say, "Welcome, friend!"
Posted by: librul | Apr 15 2024 15:33 utc | 54
@Old Sovietologist | Apr 15 2024 14:18 utc | 19
Any medium-range missile, when the warhead reaches the target, develops hypersonic speed.....The only country with a true hypersonic missile is Russia with the Zircon.The missiles that hit were clearly accelerating in the terminal phase, as can be seen in several videos. The acceleration is much more than can be expected from gravity alone.
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2024 15:38 utc | 55
Israeli media: The attack on the night of April 14 represented the most concentrated and coordinated use of precision munitions in the history of global security.
https://english.almayadeen.net/shortnews
Posted by: JB | Apr 15 2024 15:40 utc | 56
Pro-Palestinian Protesters Spark Chaos At O'Hare International Airport
Pro-Palestinian protesters are blocking Terminal 1 at Chicago O'Hare International Airport on Monday morning, causing chaos for travelers trying to catch flights.
Local media outlet ABC7 reports that "all lanes were blocked on I-190 west between Bessie Coleman Drive and the airport."
Excuse me if this is a double-post. Doing too many things at once, lost track.
Posted by: librul | Apr 15 2024 15:42 utc | 57
Pro-Palestinian Protesters Spark Chaos At O'Hare International Airport
Pro-Palestinian protesters are blocking Terminal 1 at Chicago O'Hare International Airport on Monday morning, causing chaos for travelers trying to catch flights.
Local media outlet ABC7 reports that "all lanes were blocked on I-190 west between Bessie Coleman Drive and the airport."
Posted by: librul | Apr 15 2024 15:43 utc | 59
@pilipili | Apr 15 2024 14:34 utc | 27
Screenshot https://postimg.cc/9wDqtV6M
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2024 15:45 utc | 60
I am biased. I only have 2 friends who have been to Gaza, Mike and Brian, years ago. And acquaintance Kathy Kelly. I know many more that have been and some semi-recently to the West Bank and stayed with families to walk with those families children to school to lessen the size and frequency of stones being thrown at the children by armed teenager settler.
The settlers had ramped up their depredations and small scale raids prior to Oct. 7 coupled with the new overt coordination of these attacks with iOccF. These actions in the West Bank and against the Bedouins are increasing still in frequency and intensity.
I have no numbers, but the first to jump ship imho are the not-so-true believers who have convertible funds. Many of the the settlers are not as delusional as the followers of Jim Jones (who drank the koolaid laced with cyanide) - but still quite delusional. They are heavily armed and many will fight to their death. Weep for the children of Ramallah ...
Posted by: paxmark1 | Apr 15 2024 15:47 utc | 61
The missiles that hit were clearly accelerating in the terminal phase, as can be seen in several videos. The acceleration is much more than can be expected from gravity alone.
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2024 15:38 utc | 54
As a layman whose only experience of this is a decade of watching southfront videos of missile strikes, those missile strikes reminded me more of videos I've seen claiming to be Russian hypersonic strikes in Ukraine.
Whatever debate there may be over whether these were hypersonics or not it's certain they were in a league beyond anything the US and 'Israel' have subjected the middle east to in past decades.
Something new. Something deadly.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Apr 15 2024 15:52 utc | 62
@b
While you are almost certainly correct that Iran successfully demonstrated its capabilities, I believe you are wrong in thinking that this will deter Israel. To be more specific: Israeli leadership must either continue escalation with the objective of bringing the United States into active direct military support of Israeli objectives (i.e. attacking Iran) or be utterly discredited.
And so Iran's ability to severely damage Israel is irrelevant since Israel's present leadership, and much of its remaining population, consider that Israel is already potentially existentially damaged due to the piercing of Israel's veil of invincibility - and that the only remedy is to have a demonstrated puppeteer control over the US.
Posted by: c1ue | Apr 15 2024 15:53 utc | 63
Posted by: alek_a | Apr 15 2024 15:31 utc | 51
Agree with the exception that Ukraine aid will not go through the US Congress.
Not that the war whores aren’t trying, but Johnson is going to save his job by filibustering it in deference to MTG.
A stand-alone Israel package may sail through but Democrats could kill it out of spite.
We’re going to know soon.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 15 2024 15:53 utc | 64
@Norwegian | Mon, 15 Apr 2024 15:45:00 GMT | 58
Thank you!
Posted by: pilipili | Apr 15 2024 15:55 utc | 65
"In consequence of October 7 and April 14 the Zionist population of Israel may well decrease."
Oh no !!!! And where will all these angry, spiteful, frightened, humiliated and vengeful zionists come to live, if not at our back door ?
Posted by: Shahmaran | Apr 15 2024 15:58 utc | 66
Thinking outloud...
Publicly the US is saying that they will not support Israel in the next counter-attack upon Iran.
The US will actually help, but is the above public stance just so the US can save face when it all goes
to Shit?
Thinking outloud...
Posted by: librul | Apr 15 2024 15:58 utc | 67
I see the Jews "have no other option but to attack"
Let that be.
Sow the wind and reap the Zyklon.
Posted by: g wiltek | Apr 15 2024 15:59 utc | 68
The biggest mistake one can make is to think Israel is a rational, sane player. Because of this, all bets are off.
Posted by: gottlieb | Apr 15 2024 16:01 utc | 69
The biggest mistake one can make is to think Israel is a rational, sane player. Because of this, all bets are off.
Posted by: gottlieb | Apr 15 2024 16:01 utc | 70
@Johnny Dollar | Apr 15 2024 14:58 utc | 39
To try and prove there was a winner in this exchange between US/Israel and Iran is, in my mind, silly.
You can tell the Zionists lost because they're unable to let this go. No lives were lost. They claim 99% success of air defense. Why can't they let this go? Because it's not about retaliation. The Zionist regime has a political goal to attack Iranian nuclear sites. None of their usual enablers are willing to go along with that or shield the Zionists from consequences of trying it. So they're checkmated. The suggestion by Zionist enablers to 'make a proportionate response without escalating' misses this point. A 'proportionate response' would for example be to launch drones at Iranian military sites. That has no value to the Zionists even if it partially succeeds. It's attacking the nuclear sites they're after. That has nothing to do with retaliation and that's the escalation they're being ordered by their enablers not to make.
Posted by: Lyle A | Apr 15 2024 16:02 utc | 71
Consider how Russia could gain escalation dominance in the region by supplying Iran or Lebanon with Kinzhal and the personnel to operate it. That might rattle Bennie's cage a little. And apparently it's all right to do that - NATO seems to see nothing abnormal about letting Ukraine have professional help. You just have to really, really want to defeat the other side, and that makes everything okay. Eggs and omelettes, right? Russia certainly doesn't owe Israel anything.
Washington has made it clear that Israel must start negotiating with her neighbors because the Iranian attack was profound. Iran had no interest in massive casualties it just sent a message. We have to remember that Iran is led by a sense of morality that is not limited to Iranians or even Muslims whereas Israel is strictly tribal, i.e., what's good for the tribe (Jews) is moral and the rest of the world be dammed. Islam and Christianity for all their faults (and there are many) are universalist religions.
Once Israel starts moving away from their classic fascism peace will slowly come in the region. I'm pleased the Biden Administration is also seeing that peace may benefit everyone (except neocon fanatics). The genius of having the propaganda organs declare victory is the right move even if Iran has just ended Israeli hegemony in the region. The Empire is now, except in the covert ops department, a paper-tiger. Gradually, even Europeans may begin to see that over the next few years--though we aren't there yet.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Apr 15 2024 16:06 utc | 73
All I am asking is for the US and their puppets to let Israel fend for itself until next February.
Posted by: Viktor | Apr 15 2024 16:07 utc | 74
Posted by: librul | Apr 15 2024 15:58 utc | 65
If the US did not "help" Israel would not exist.
Posted by: Jonathan W | Apr 15 2024 16:16 utc | 76
Stephen Bryen, who writes for Asia Times, claims that Saudi Arabia directly participated in "Israel's defence", in a manner similar to Jordan. Where has this been otherwise reported?
That seven ballistic missiles struck important military sites in Israel is astonishing, and arguments otherwise claiming since "99%" of everything else was intercepted instead equals a "victory" for Israel and its supporters are minimizing the symbolic significance
of what occurred. Iran's effort was clearly crafted as a symbolic demonstration.
Posted by: jayc | Apr 15 2024 16:20 utc | 77
@Mark | Apr 15 2024 16:04 utc | 70
Consider how Russia could gain escalation dominance in the region by supplying Iran or Lebanon with Kinzhal and the personnel to operate it.Better to let Israel lose against "primitive" Irans domestically produced weapons.
Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 15 2024 16:22 utc | 78
There's a very good reason I titled my short note "Zionist Deterrence Myth Shattered: Rejoice!" as that's precisely what happened. Crooke in his talk with Judge Napolitano this morning shared the same conclusion. He also explained a bit about the paper he delivered in St. Petersburg that I teamed with a Lavrov presser, "Two Talks on BRICS: Lavrov and Crooke". The Equation has indeed changed, and there're excellent reasons why Biden has told Netanyahu to forget about retaliating for their lawlessness that the Empire won't help with: "You made your bed, now you'll need to sleep in it" is the esential message.
Will the megalomaniac Netanyahu and Zionists retaliate? If they desire more harm to come to them, then they will. IMO, they will attack Hezbollah to try and salvage something if they try anything.
Couple of notes.
1) As others have stated, this will likely result in an even more blatant Israeli attempt to create and draw the US into a larger regional, perhaps 'definitional' war.
a) This is almost certainly a complete fool's errand. Not only are members of Genocide Joe's cabinet awakening to the brutality and lawlessness of the Zionist regime, some have resigned and the election is just around the corner with the GOP circling like sharks and bizarrely accusing the Genocidal enablers of the DNC of not supporting Israel enough. LOL
b) Not only the political angle, but the US is overtaxed and desperate to pivot away from both the ME and Ukraine to "contain" China. Trust me, I follow the RFPs coming out of the DoD and they are ALMOST ALL Pacific "deterrence" related.
2) Expect a false flag any day should Israel get more desperate. USS Liberty for ex.
3) Judging by the volume of tweets coming from Pompeo, Cotton, and virtually ever R or D serving in the midwest, NY, CA and Florida, I expect something to occur soon. Seriously, they're tweeting 24/7 about our "ally" and the USA's "ironclad" support for the Zionist occupation regime.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 15 2024 16:26 utc | 80
Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev held talks with the Chairman of the National Security Council of Israel
https://russian.rt.com/world/news/1300514-patrushev-peregovory-izrail
This morning Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed the situation in the Middle East by phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian.
Quietly Russia is playing the role of mediator and exposes US impotence.
Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 15 2024 16:27 utc | 81
here is the article @ 75 jayc references from stephen bryen..
Preliminary takeaways of Iran’s assault on Israel
and a quote from the above article - "Israel was assisted by the US Air Force and Navy, and by Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Jordan used its F-16s and air defenses. I do not have a report yet from Saudi Arabia." i guess this means we are waiting for more info..
Posted by: james | Apr 15 2024 16:27 utc | 82
The usual propagandists are trying so hard right now to picture this as a "Zionist victory" : someone should tell them Public Opinion is not a plant : it won't be happier if you give it manure ...
One Israeli MP got it right tho : "How could Iranian missiles flying over the Knesset being see as a Victory ?"... well, be glad Iran didn't altered the deal further; for now IRGC only fly missile "above", far better as "into" :p.
Posted by: Savonarole | Apr 15 2024 16:27 utc | 83
Further to my post @79
It's also significant that the talks with Iran are taking place at the foreign ministerial whereas with Israel it's at the intelligence level. Russian & Israeli intelligence services have more cordial relations than many realize.
Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Apr 15 2024 16:37 utc | 85
"Israel is no longer secure. It can no longer do as it wants without having to fear the consequences.
It will take some time for this fact to sink into the Zionists' mind.
But it will."
Some of them will conclude their last chance is going nuclear on Iran. Will they get their way?
Some of them will conclude that if they speed up the removal of Palestinians the Eretz Israel from Damascus to Sinai will become strong enough to face Iran, which as a national of inferior peoples and religion cannot maintain its current strength, that the Western economic war might even topple the current system. And speeding up Palestinian removal can mean extermination. See for comparison the German Hunger Plan https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34907689/#:~:text=In%20the%20weeks%20leading%20to,Soviet%20civilians%2C%20Jews%20and%20gentiles.
The thing is, behind Israel is the US. Despite all the fascists here, Israel is not the tail that wags the dog. Nonetheless, Israel is a part of imperialism which is an irrational system driven by contradictions capitalism, and no chieftain like Biden or Trump, can possibly resolve. If they weren't already personally crazy, they'll still act crazy.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 15 2024 16:40 utc | 86
Without nuclear weapons Iran is very unsafe.
Pure morality won no wars in the past. That is something the west and Israel know pretty well.
That is something Rusia and Iran are going to learn in a hard way.
Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 16:40 utc | 87
Hi Barflies. Can any US based flies tell me what is the Israel Lobby (Aipac, Adl, Committee of Presidents the vile Wurmsers, Elliot Abrams etc), are calling for? They have had a dominant role in the past on many aspects of US middle East policies.
Many thx JB.
Posted by: Judge Barbier | Apr 15 2024 16:42 utc | 88
Yes Iranian military science, industry and technology are impressive—all the more so since they had to build it under sanctions. In the mid-90’s while wandering across the internet, I came across a 96 page article in English about Iranian built weaponry.including military planes of their own design.
The author was an ex-patriot Iranian who was a professor in Switzerland. You will recall that Iran was under heavy UN endorsed sanctions during those years. I remember being amazed by the variety of military planes and other equipment that Iran had to design and build from scratch with no help from Russia or anyone else. Having read of this sanction-busting ingenuity, I was not surprised when Iran a few years later was the first country to down and capture intact a U.S. Predator drone. People remember that? One can be sure that Iran’s indigenous technology is all the more sophisticated today….
Posted by: mjh | Apr 15 2024 16:44 utc | 89
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/israeli-f35-central-role-air-defence
The Israeli Defence Ministry in early July that year confirmed plans to expand its F-35 fleet with an order planned for 25 airframes under a $3 billion contract. The country’s defence budget is expected to be seriously further strained, however, not only due to the economic contraction caused from six months of war, but also to the recent Iranian strike. Just hours of intensive air defence efforts have cost $1.33 billion, according to Israeli sources, while a comparable amount was spent by the United States which extensively supported Israel’s defences. Thus the cost of defending against the strikes was not only far greater than that required by Iran to launch them, but also approached the full cost of the new F-35 contract.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Apr 15 2024 16:49 utc | 90
@formerly miss Lacey @1334
You hit on a central point descriptive of the chess master thinking of the Iranians...to create NO civilian casualties. When we consider the moaning, kvetching, along with the overwhelming weeping and wailing that would have emanated from those clinically insane masses who make up the vast majority of the Occupiers of Palestine...had even ONE single woman or child from that self-chosen population...we would have witnessed the newly embedded meme of "woe is us, we the Chosen...all those OTHERS hate us for our religion...Yada, yada, yada.
Even without those key military thinkers who were wiped out in Iran's consulate in Damascus; the insights of the strategists of the Iranian state, as those master chess-players displayed...assiduously took their time, debated all possible strategies and fallout of various mistakes which COULD have become part of the script and devised a master plan which delighted the strategic mind of Scott Ritter and his interviewer deluxe, George Galloway.
Not only did Israel miss out on emotional outbursts of grief...leave that to the Resistance forces in Gaza...but they also were totally unable, even with the assistance of the Imperial storm-troopers of the U$$A, France and Perfidious Albion...to protect the Zionist State's #1 military airfield, along with two other highly strategic targets.
Major Ritter almost chortled in the above mentioned interview, that the British-imposed Arabic satellite, the only Arab state which abetted the "defense" of the Zionist Entity, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan...itself having a majority population of Palestininans...will not be long for this world, as it enraged the entire Islamic ummah, particularly fellow Arabs by their treacherous kow-towing to the Imperialistic colonializers. Ritter expects "King" Abdullah to flee to his actual home in the environs of the land of his first language, England.
Posted by: aristodemos | Apr 15 2024 16:49 utc | 91
Posted by: bevin | Apr 15 2024 15:27 utc | 50....These unattractive and ultimately fatal characteristics, which were part of the intellectual heritage of the Pilgrim Fathers, can also be found in the polity of the United States- the ultimate case of a person born on Third Base convinced that he is a triple hitter.
A hard rain is gonna fall.
Well said, great post.
That said, I have a niggle with b's ending:
In consequence of October 7 and April 14 the Zionist population of Israel may well decrease.
If millions of Jews start leaving Israel they will go back to European countries, further delaying their long overdue reform period. Which is why, selfishly, even though I think the Palestinians have been unjustly treated ab initio, I still would like to see a Jewish State in the Middle East succeed so that more Jews will live there, peacefully and happily, and so less will remain to interfere in Western polities nor have much reason to do so.
Enjoy the calm now before the storm.
Us & uk have appeared to distance themself publicly from israel retaliating.
That means netinyahoo will bomb Hezbula in Lebanon from the air, becouse it can.
IRAN has said retaliation from israel will be met with a quick response from Iran.
At that point the US & UK will support israel.
And all hell will be let lose.
Russia will support Iran, Syria.
Remember the future of this world hangs in the balance, in the hands of netinyahoo and he's derainged.
We could all be dead in 3 days time.
Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 15 2024 16:51 utc | 93
Posted by: vargas | Apr 15 2024 16:40 utc | 85
"That is something Rusia and Iran are going to learn in a hard way."
And this 'analysis' is based on . . . what?
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Apr 15 2024 16:52 utc | 94
It seems to me that we are one escalation away from the situation getting completely out of control.
I would not put it beyond Israel to include nuclear weapons preemptively, rather than wait for some massive Iranian/Hezbollah retaliatory strike.
Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 15 2024 16:52 utc | 95
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Apr 15 2024 13:28 utc | 1
Thank you, Jams. Very interesting article, especially as it's from 2012.
Posted by: Patrick al-Henrygazh | Apr 15 2024 16:53 utc | 96
Will the State of Israel retaliate for the Iranian attack? Better minds than mine seem to be split on the issue here.
I would like to suggest that now is a state of extreme heightened danger for Al-Aqsa from the settler zealots and others of their ilk, who directly brought on Al Aqsa Flood by their desecrative activities just prior to October 7th.
Their desire to build the 3rd Jewish Temple(plus USA Christian Zionists desires) knows no bounds, they believe God is on their side and that God wants Al Aqsa razed to the ground, replaced by the new temple.
I seriously doubt that Israeli security forces would try to stop them.
And of course, the Palestinians are in no shape to stop the destruction.
Such an action would certainly invite a true Holy War from Islam, possibly an Armageddon type war.
This religous war would be something impossible to contain or manage.
I believe such an attempt to destroy Al-Aqsa may occur, possibly quite soon.
The other possibility that crosses my mind might be an attack on the holy city of Qom in Iran, either by terrorism or Israeli state action.
I really don't think that the above ideas are outlandish, and are fully within the settler mentality.
Posted by: morongobill | Apr 15 2024 16:53 utc | 97
Rubiconned @1355
Quite right: The Ben-Gurion Airport will bring in sloughs of $hekels, with their outbound flights constantly and consistently overbooked by rats deserting the sinking ship. Arrivals will continue to feature numerous "Untouchables" from India who will take on the roles of serfs for foreign masters.
Posted by: aristodemos | Apr 15 2024 16:56 utc | 98
There are, actually a few questions remaining.
How many ballistic missiles did Iran really launch - and how many could Israel really shoot down? So far we have Israeli claims of 120 of which all but 7 were shot down. I don't believe Israel's claims Iran would shoot 120 ballistic missiles.
Second question - did Iran hit the structures it targeted on the two airfields and intelligence base? Yet something we again cannot know.
As far as the intelligence base, supposedly Israel has implemented a complete media blackout on it.
More than anything, it was probably a test and a learning experience for Iran. They will probably make the conclusion that such type of drone saturation attacks are cost-effective, and has the potential to bankrupt the Anglozion empire. If you think of it, they did send up a huge amount of fighter aircraft, used tons of Iron dome missiles (hitting remaining of surviving drones and decoys from cruise and ballistic missiles). The primary attack weapon, the ballistic missiles seemed to have hit pre-mentioned four targets.
The Iranian general did claim the attack was more successful than expected. It might be precisely due to the learning experience, and the damage caused in the 3 targets. The missiles and warheads are probably very accurate.
Posted by: unimperator | Apr 15 2024 17:01 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
"In consequence of October 7 and April 14 the Zionist population of Israel may well decrease."
Let us fervently hope so. Here is a forecast of the future:
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Apr 15 2024 13:28 utc | 1