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Ukraine SitRep: The Power Plant War – Ideological Losses – More Signs Of Corruption
The Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski is lobbying Congress through U.S. media for more weapons and monetary support. It requires him to finally depict the situation as dire as it is:
Speaking to the PBS news hour on Tuesday, April 16, Zelensky underlined Ukraine’s air defences' critical condition.
“I'll give you a very simple example,” he said.
“Eleven missiles were launched towards the Trypillya [thermal power] station, upon which the electricity supply in the Kyiv region depends. We managed to intercept the first seven, but the remaining four hit Trypillya. Why? Because we had zero missiles left. We have exhausted all the missiles that were defending Trypillya,” the President added.
…
In response to the targeting of critical infrastructure, Zelensky used this example to once again call upon Ukraine’s allies to urgently supply the weapons Kyiv needs, particularly air defense launchers and missiles.
“Frankly speaking, without this assistance, we stand little chance of victory, because we need to be significantly stronger than our adversaries. The current ratio of artillery shells stands at 1 to 10. Can we endure for much longer? No,” Zelensky said.
It is good to see that Zelenski is finally noticing the situation Ukraine is in.
The electricity infrastructure is indeed a critical point. John Helmer, via Naked Capitalism, suggest that Russia is using the destruction of Ukrainian power plants to press for its unconditional surrender.
Helmer quotes the Colonel Cassad blog site:
Boris Rozhin, whose Colonel Cassad military blog broadly represents General Staff thinking, reports the operational breakthrough demonstrated on April 11, and explains what the maps of current targeting foreshadow for the next round of strikes, and the rounds after that. Rozhin republishes his analysis from RT, the state media organ.
“By the evening of April 11, Ukrainian sources reported that air-launched X-69 missiles could be used to hit the Tripolskaya TPP [Thermal Power Plant]. So far, there is no confirmation of this information, but it is worth studying these missiles in more detail. Their range is almost 20 times less than that of the X-101 missiles [equivalent to about 250-500 kilometres], the carriers of which are strategic aircraft of the Aerospace Forces [Tu-95]. In their [X-69] function, they are closer to the foreign [Anglo-French] Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, which are being attempted for strikes on the Crimean Bridge. The [X-69’s] long range of the 300 km could be enough if the launches of missiles were carried out from the territory of the Bryansk region. If the use of missiles is confirmed in the future, it will mean that no energy facility of the Ukraine on the Dnieper River can work safely, and the strike capabilities of the Aerospace Forces have multiplied.” https://t.me/rt_russian/197065
The lack of power supply is not the only unsolvable problem Zelenski has.
The situation at the frontline is deteriorating. One of the critical sectors in now Chasiv Yar, some 10 kilometer west of Bakhmut, where the Russian forces recently managed to make some crucial progress.
Chasiv Yar – April 1 2024
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Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: The Power Plant War – Ideological Losses – More Signs Of Corruption
The Resistance Axis Penetrated The Zionist Security Screen
On October 7 2023 Hamas breached the fence around Gaza. It infiltrated military installations and Kibbutzes with the intent to take as many hostages as possible. These were to be taken into Gaza for future prisoner exchanges.
Despite local warnings the leadership of the Zionist entity was surprised by the move. Its overreaction and the Hannibal directive led to the death of many hostages.
The event was a shock to the Israeli public. It had felt secure. October 7 and the six months of fighting in Gaza and at the northern border have changed that.
But the danger so far came only from mere militia, Hizbullah and Hamas. While those are capable they do lack the instruments of a full fledged nation state.
Still overconfident of its own capabilities the leadership of the Zionist entity made a second mistake. It had already attacked Iranian envoys in Syria and Lebanon. It topped that with an attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria. It did not expect Iran to respond to it.
But pushed by its own population Iran had to respond. It had to do so in a way that was convincing but would not lead to further escalations. A very difficult to achieve balance.
Its attack on Israeli airbases in the Negev and a Mossad base on the Golan heights were successful despite the facts that:
- Israel and everybody else was warned of the strike
- several Israeli allies – the U.S., UK, France, Jordan – added their significant means to help Israeli air defenses
- the targets were one of the most difficult to strike.
As Scott Ritter opines:
Cont. reading: The Resistance Axis Penetrated The Zionist Security Screen
Palestine Open Thread 2024-110
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Ukraine Open Thread 2024-109
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The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-108
Last weeks posts on Moon of Alabama:
Middle East:
Ukraine:
Iran:
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-108
Iranian Missiles Hit Israel
Iran fired several hundred drones, cruise and ballistic missiles towards Israel.
With the help of the U.S., UK and Jordan most of the incoming items were intercepted.
The expense of several hundred of air defense missiles, at a cost of more than $1 billion, was significant as these are currently hard to get items. More such attacks would soon deplete those which are left.
Iran's missiles, for which the drones flew cover, hit their targets. The Nevatim Air Base (vid) and the Ramon airbase (vid), both located in the Negev desert, experienced impacts.
How big the damage was can only be noted after fresh satellite pictures come in.
This is a good chance for both sides to declare victory.
Iran can claim that it successfully penetrated Israel's air defense and hit appropriate targets in revenge for the Israeli attack on Iran's embassy in Damascus.
Israel can claim that it has successfully defended its assets.
Israel may want to hit back on Iran. It would be stupid to do so.
Added: From a reliable analyst of the resistance axis:
Cont. reading: Iranian Missiles Hit Israel
Iran’s Retaliation Delay Keeps Pressure On U.S. And Israel
Earlier today the navy of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp boarded and seized the container ship MSC Aries near the Strait of Hormuz. The ship is operated by Zodiac Maritime, a company owned by the Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer.
The seizure of the ship can be understood as a warning to the U.S. and its Gulf allies to not get any funny ideas and to attack Iran. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would increase global oil prices and jeopardize Biden's re-election.
Iran has announced to revenge the Israeli attack on its embassy building in Damascus, Syria.
But it did not announce when, where or how it will retaliate.
By holding back on any hints it increases the anxiety in Israel and Washington DC.
“The pressure is now on Israel and the US rather than Iran. And yes, there are a lot of threatening remarks directed at Iran in the hope that the Iranians don’t act. But the die was first cast by Israel,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at John Hopkins University.
“And now people are trying to avoid what might be consequences.”
Biden does not want the US to be pulled into a war with Iran, particularly as he seeks reelection in November. But Washington’s default policy has long been to support Israel, Nasr added.
Would a real superpower ever do this (archived)?
The US has asked China and other countries, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to urge Tehran not to launch a retaliatory attack on Israel for its air strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria.
Neither of the countries asked has any reason to be helpful to the U.S. and certainly not to Israel.
The costs of keeping the watch up and the weapons manned will over time become unbearable for Israel as well as for the U.S.
It is thus better for Iran to wait with any bigger retaliation it may plan to carry out.
Russia Expects ‘Unconditional Capitulation’ Of Kiev Regime
During yesterday's UN Security Council meeting Vasily Nebenzya, the Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations, said:
"This is how it will go down in history – as an inhuman and hateful regime of terrorists and Nazis who betrayed the interest of their people and sacrificed it for Western money and for Zelenski and his closest circle.
In these conditions, attempts by the head of the Kiev regime to promote his formula and convene summits in support of the Kiev regime cause only confusion.
Very soon the only topic for any international meetings on Ukraine will be the unconditional capitulation of the Kiev regime.
I advise you all to prepare for this in advance."
Ukraine – To Hurt Russia Means Pain For Ukraine
Ukraine is trying to hurt Russia by hitting its refineries. But the attacks fail to have the desired effects on Russia. The Russian response though, in form of de-energization attacks on Ukraine, seriously endanger the state.
Today the Russian Federation continued with the de-energization of Ukraine (machine translation):
As a result of a massive Russian missile attack on the night of April 11 , the Trypillya thermal power plant in the Kiev region was completely destroyed.
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Located in the city of Ukrainka, Trypillia thermal power station was commissioned in 1973 and became the most powerful power plant in the Kiev region. It was also the largest supplier of electricity to the Kiev, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions.
Since the Zmiyevskaya TPP in the Kharkiv region was completely destroyed on March 22, and Russian troops occupied the Uglegorsk TPP in the Donetsk region on July 25, 2022, Centrenergo has now lost 100% of its generation.
After the complete destruction of the Trypillya TPP, the network recalls the statement of Centrenergo from August 2023 that the facility is equipped with physical protection "at 100%".
At the same time, it was reported that 70% of the work at the Zmievskaya TPP was completed. This facility was also destroyed by shelling in March of this year.
DTEK, another power supply company in Ukraine, also reported significant losses:
Cont. reading: Ukraine – To Hurt Russia Means Pain For Ukraine
Palestine Open Thread 2024-107
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Ukraine Open Thread 2024-106
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Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2024-105
News & views (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine) …
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-104
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Israel To Launch Major Escalation?
At Naked Capitalism Yves Smith links (thank you) to yesterday's Moon of Alabama piece:
Two Israeli Actions Misfired, Pushed Netanyahoo Into Retreat
She comments:
IMHO, this is a premature call. Israel so far has made only small-beer placating moves. Per above, it is doubling down on attacking Rafah, something the Biden Administration has noisily opposed.
Well, may be.
Yves also says this:
Someone with very strong diplomatic contacts described a specific, major escalation that Israel is primed to make. Would make the Iran embassy strike look like peanuts in terms of ripple effects. Am hoping to get a post from him. It would be hard to think the region does not wind up in a major conflagration if he is correct.
Ominous.
A direct attack on Iran?
Or what else might that major escalation be?
Two Israeli Actions Misfired, Pushed Netanyahoo Into Retreat
Several recent incidents have increased the pressure on Israel to end its war on Gaza.
There are serious signs that the Israeli government, under pressure from the U.S., is now moving towards an intermediate ceasefire state that all sides may be able to live with – at least for a while. The decision to do that however has split the Netanyahoo government and may well end the coalition which supports it.
After six month of operations in Gaza the Israeli government has reached none of its announced aims. Neither is Hamas defeated, nor have the hostages been released. There is no viable plan who, if not Hamas, will in future rule the Gaza strip.
Israeli settlers, who have been living near the Gaza strip and the northern border, are still not willing to return to their homes as the government lacks a plan to guarantee their security.
Pressure on the Israeli government comes from several sides.
The war has been extremely costly for Israel's economy. The called up reservists have been missing in their work places. The tourism business is down on its knees. Providing for those hundreds of thousands who have fled from their homes is costly.
Large protest have erupted within Israel demanding the return of the hostages.
International criticism of Israel has risen to unprecedented levels. Several UN resolutions have condemned it for its war crimes in Gaza. The International Court of Justice has ruled against it.
Only the support from the United States had allowed Israel to continue. But two recent incidents have jeopardized it.
The first was Israel's assassination of seven people who had been working for World Central Kitchen, a U.S. based charity with good connections to Congress. Forty members of Congress, including Nancy Pelosi, have since spoken out against further unconditional support for Israel. The U.S. government under Joe Biden had to acknowledge that. It finally threatened to end its support for the Israeli government.
Following U.S. threats Israel immediately increased the provision of food to the starving population in Gaza:
Cont. reading: Two Israeli Actions Misfired, Pushed Netanyahoo Into Retreat
Palestine Open Thread 2024-103
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Ukraine Open Thread 2024-102
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The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-101
Last weeks posts on Moon of Alabama:
Middle East:
Ukraine:
Russia:
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2024-101
Ukraine – Faking News Still Does Not Help Winning
I find it amusing how little western media have learned from their own reporting on the war in Ukraine.
Two years ago a mystic 'Ghost of Kiev' was allegedly shooting down Russian aircraft left and right. The ghost turned out to be a fake character. The Ukrainian air force had never had such successes.
Two years on it is still the same story. The Ukrainian government claims something and western media print it as if it had really happened.
When the claim is debunked, often sooner than later, its simply vanishes from the headlines.
Yesterday we had this media wave:
The Russia side confirmed the attacks but denied any significant damage:
Rybar Force @rybar_force – 9:58 UTC · Apr 5, 2024
During the night, the AFU launched drones into Russian territory.
🔻The primary target was the Morozovsk airfield in the Rostov region, where Ukrainian forces dispatched 44 drones. The exact type remains unknown and will be determined upon analyzing the debris. However, there is a high likelihood that these are the same UAVs that the enemy has been utilizing in recent weeks.
Out of these, 26 drones were intercepted by Pantsir-S1 air defense missile systems, and 18 by rifle squads. Based on the videos circulating online, it is evident that the drones were flying at an extremely low altitude, enhancing the level of stealth.
There was no significant damage to the infrastructure. The debris hit a few buildings. Additionally, the substation suffered damage, resulting in a temporary power outage.
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❗️ Thanks to the swift response of the air defense crews, any severe repercussions from the attacks were averted – claims from Ukrainian sources about the alleged destruction of six aircraft are fakes coming from enemy propagandists.
The Russia claim of no significant damage has been confirmed by the anti-Russian Institute for the Study of War:
ISW has yet to find any visual evidence that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed aircraft or infrastructure at any of the four Russian airbases targeted by drones on the night of 4-5 April.
Such news cycles of fake claims of alleged Ukrainian successes are a major reason why some in the western public still believe that the Ukraine can win the war.
That is however not the case. The situation requires a change of attitude:
Cont. reading: Ukraine – Faking News Still Does Not Help Winning
Palestine Open Thread 2024-100
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