Israel To Launch Major Escalation?
At Naked Capitalism Yves Smith links (thank you) to yesterday's Moon of Alabama piece:
Two Israeli Actions Misfired, Pushed Netanyahoo Into Retreat
She comments:
IMHO, this is a premature call. Israel so far has made only small-beer placating moves. Per above, it is doubling down on attacking Rafah, something the Biden Administration has noisily opposed.
Well, may be.
Yves also says this:
Someone with very strong diplomatic contacts described a specific, major escalation that Israel is primed to make. Would make the Iran embassy strike look like peanuts in terms of ripple effects. Am hoping to get a post from him. It would be hard to think the region does not wind up in a major conflagration if he is correct.
Ominous.
A direct attack on Iran?
Or what else might that major escalation be?
Posted by b on April 9, 2024 at 14:28 UTC | Permalink
next page »SITREP daily round up
https://www.palestinechronicle.com/all-eyes-on-netzarim-resistance-roundup-day-185/#
Comment - southern Front - the single IDF brigade remaining in Gaza is a juicy target for the resistance units. These IDF regulars must feel like they‘ve been made into bait by the Likud. 2 jubilant videos. Northern Front - usual compliation of attacks on IDF. 1 video. eastern front - no update
Tally of Merkavas remains at 172.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 9 2024 14:37 utc | 2
Invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah will respond from Lebanon and Syria. US will get drawn in with air and missile strikes first. Shia in Iraq also. That might get Iran to close the Persian Gulf.
Posted by: JackG | Apr 9 2024 14:37 utc | 3
I posted yesterday that my money is an attack on Lebanon to draw Iran into direct conflict, which would justify an American intervention to save Bibi and the Zionists (sounds like a demented barbershop quartet).
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 9 2024 14:38 utc | 4
The mosque? That would set the region on fire.
https://www.songforisrael.org/news/indexphp/2022/9/red-heifers-arrive-in-israel-what-does-this-mean
The cows were inspected by rabbis and found to be red and unblemished, which means they are ritually pure for sacrifice as stipulated under the law of Moses.The farmers in Texas knew enough of the requirements and did not tag the ears of these cows, leaving them unblemished. No other nation has been able to produce the unblemished red heifer. The Christian organization, Boneh Israel, located the cattle and, along with the Temple Institute in Jerusalem, was responsible for getting them to Israel.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 9 2024 14:42 utc | 6
There was a TG video yesterday (or the day before) from Israel showing a convoy of sizeable ballistic missiles being transported down a main highway, seemed like a demonstrative act given they could have been moved at night and with better cargo covers.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 9 2024 14:42 utc | 7
Nuke.
State terrorism as a last resort, unbelievable but here we are.......
Posted by: Winston, journalist | Apr 9 2024 14:44 utc | 8
Per M. K. Bhadrakumar: IRGC general (Retd) & professor at Supreme National Defense University of General Staff of Iranian Armed Forces, Ahmad Gholampour: "Israel has fallen into a quagmire and in order to get out of it, it is seeking to drag Iran into this war as a direct participant.'
Militarily, an escalation with Iran would be suicide for Israel. But ... Bibi is backed into a corner, facing loss of office and possible jail time if he admits defeat. It is in his personal best interest to keep the war going or even escalate it.
I am skeptical that the U.S. would be drawn into an expanded war with Iran. The U.S. public is weary of foreign wars and the U.S. military is overextended and vulnerable. But then again, we are ruled by fools and psychopaths.
Posted by: Dan Lynch | Apr 9 2024 14:51 utc | 9
Wiki on the poor suckers left behind in Gaza - the Nahal Brigade
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nahal_Brigade
Summary -a light infantry unit, composed of foreign volunteers and apparently conscripts. It seems to be focused on „police“ duties in West Bank for last few years although the wiki article has a long list of embarrassing failures such as this example;
On 4 September 1982, a four-member Palestinian squad attacked an observation post manned by eight soldiers from the Nahal brigade. All the Israeli soldiers surrendered without firing a single bullet. Israel was then forced, in two separate exchange deals, to release almost 6000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the captured Nahal soldiers. The deals were severely criticized in Israel, for being extremely "lopsided". The less than heroic behaviour of the Nahal brigade soldiers was also pointed out. The Nahal Brigade Commander Gilboa went as far as branding the soldiers of his own brigade as "eight cowards".
Conclusion - Likud couldn’t care less if these sad sacks get killed. They‘ve been left behind as bait.
Posted by: Exile | Apr 9 2024 14:53 utc | 10
OT a bit, but McDonalds is buying out all McDonalds restaurants in Israel from the franchise owners, and is still supplying IDF meals.
A few days after Oct 7 it announced it had donated 10000 meals to the IDF, sparking calls for boycott, which has indeed caused it to miss revenue and earnings forecasts, as well as lowering guidance.
If anybody here still eats that garbage...
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 9 2024 14:55 utc | 11
"I posted yesterday that my money is an attack on Lebanon to draw Iran into direct conflict, which would justify an American intervention to save Bibi and the Zionists....
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 9 2024 14:38 utc | 4
That's my idea as well.
BIBI AND THE ZIONISTS
LIVE (as zombies can be) AT THE LONDON LORDITORIUM!
A TOTAL SELL-OUT!
Featuring their cover (Mossad) version of "Burning Down the House"
Posted by: MFB | Apr 9 2024 15:00 utc | 13
Posted by: UWDude | Apr 9 2024 14:55 utc | 10
#####
Sounds like asymmetric-5D chess tactics. Death by Happy Meal. 😂
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 9 2024 15:04 utc | 14
Netanyahu must do something drastic to forestall the fall of the coalition government which is now split due to his withdrawing troops from Gaza without full war cabinet consent. IMO, we need to think what he would do to forward his and the Zionist public's eschatological mania and thus win political support so he remains in charge of government instead of being sent to jail along with his wife. Netanyahu's mania is Iran and every effort he's taken to goad Iran into retaliation has failed, and in his opinion he must have that to get the Outlaw US Empire to fight Iran for him. Since he's destroyed international law by attacking one Iranian diplomatic post, he may do the same to others, while ignoring the host nation. The man's a megalomaniac, so we know he'll do something but guessing exactly what is the issue. Crooke mentioned the fact that Iran's nuclear installations are buried within mountains and thus protected, but that doesn't mean the maniac won't try as he doesn't care who or how many he kills, and he seems to think he has Divine impunity. If the target is Iran, missiles will be used as Iran's AD will hit Zionist jets. Is he crazy enough to use nukes? IMO, yes as the public currently will back such craziness.
The Zionists are proven homicidal maniacs and have tools they can use to vastly increase the number of their victims. IMO, if they use nukes, nukes must then be used on them as that will be the only way to put a stop to their murderous reign.
I’ll chime in as well that the most likely move is an invasion of Lebanon. The Israeli government needs to prove to its own people that they can protect them in the north.
Posted by: KMRIA | Apr 9 2024 15:07 utc | 17
Why, and how (!) would a country in dire economic, military,political and certainly societal trouble, a country formally warned to stop committing genocide, and widely despised in the wider world, attack Lebanon, Iran or any such target?
Only if the US and Comp approve.
In any case, should some such move by the Zionist terrorists actually be made, Israel will be destroyed.
Not that many would shed a tear.
Posted by: JB | Apr 9 2024 15:11 utc | 19
It looks once again US Empire's proxy force become uncontrollable even to empire ruling classes itself.
The Afghan jihadists and bin Laden also lost control of the US in the end.
USA funding and arming made a Monster. Always.
Posted by: Nokaz | Apr 9 2024 15:19 utc | 20
Nuke a port in Lebanon, then invade South Lebanon and attack Hezbollah in the confusion? Maybe Nuke Damascus instead and then finish off Gaza and fully take West Bank? So many options, so little sanity.
Posted by: Matt | Apr 9 2024 15:25 utc | 21
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 9 2024 14:42 utc | 6
"What to me is the multitude of your sacrifices?"
says the Lord;
"I have had enough of burnt offerings of rams and the fat of fed beasts;
I do not delight in the blood of bulls,
or of lambs, or of he-goats.
When you come to appear before me,
who requires of you this trampling of my courts?
Bring no more vain offerings;
incense is an abomination to me.New moon and sabbath and the calling of assemblies --
I cannot endure iniquity and solemn assembly.
Your new moons and your appointed feasts my soul hates;
They have become a burden to me,
I am weary of bearing them.When you spread forth your hands,
I will hide my face from you;
even though you make many prayers,
I will not listen;
Your hands are full of blood."[Isaiah 1;12-15]
Posted by: juliania | Apr 9 2024 15:26 utc | 22
@james 17
"what is yves smith prediction track record?? "
I hold NC in high esteem but that´s a rather good question.
All along unknown but trusted sources had us warned of the worst in UKR (think Patrick Lawrence, Seymour Hersh, McGovern etc.)
May be that´s a way to save the world. Which is fine.
Of course Israel is UKR with nukes. That makes things much worse and difficult to judge.
I myself with my 2 cents argued earlier that ISR in theory could nuke with impunity if things are pictured that way. To descibe the state of lawlessness.
But neither did the US nuke RU out of the orbit when they could have done so without any conquences for themselves until the 1960s.
But what comes then? ISRs are crazy but not idiots. You have to keep the engine running first and foremost.
Posted by: AG | Apr 9 2024 15:28 utc | 23
Perhaps an attack directed at al-aqsa mosque? Wonder whether the red heifer has been sacrificed already? Otherwise I'd go with the bar-fly consensus and place my 2cents on an invasion of Lebannon.
Posted by: ibnGibbon | Apr 9 2024 15:37 utc | 24
@ AG | Apr 9 2024 15:28 utc | 22
thanks.. i agree with you in your quote - crazy but not idiots... as fir yves smith track record - who knows...
there is a mars/saturn conjunction tomorrow night - april 10th tel aviv time around midnight.. this is a type of astro war signature that happens every few years.. no guarantee anything comes of it, but it shows a level of frustration and pent up energy that badly wants to be released (mars), but is being cautioned against doing so ( saturn ).. we'll see how it goes.. maybe someone is following astrology, lol..
Posted by: james | Apr 9 2024 15:39 utc | 25
@ Posted by: JB | Apr 9 2024 15:11 utc | 18
Why, and how (!) would a country in dire economic, military,political and certainly societal trouble, a country formally warned to stop committing genocide, and widely despised in the wider world, attack Lebanon, Iran or any such target?
After a certain point, the only option left is to double down. Actually, no longer having to pretend to be the "most moral army in the world" (in retrospect, it seems like that title belongs to the Russians, who have so far managed to only destroy a handful of Ukrainian cities, and without the mass casualties Israeli bombs have caused) has untied Israel's hands. They can now be the genocidal eschaton immanentizers they always were, or at least the current crop of religious freaks in charge always have been. While Palestinian resistance has always been largely secular (the PFLP, DFLP, etc., were always Marxist-Leninist atheists), it is increasingly secular while Israel is increasingly of a religious reactionary persuasion. Hence the support from Christian reactionaries in the US, who are taking breaks from gay-bashing and trans-bashing to deep throat Israeli cock.
Posted by: fnord | Apr 9 2024 15:41 utc | 26
The IDF operates under its own nuclear umbrella, having with US technical support about 240 tactical nuclear weapons in storage in the Negev Desert strategic base.
This allows them to basically threaten everyone and anyone.........at any time.
Would they use them on the Iranians, or on Hezbollah? Possibly, if they felt they were in danger of being over run. This war cabinet is composing of the most radical Zionist in creation, surely they would vote for the nuclear option if they felt their "chosen land" was threatened.......
Remember in the '73 war they had an A4 Skyhawk fighter-bomber orbiting over the Sinai, just in case the Egyptians made the final breakout into Israel proper........that Skyhawk was carrying a tactical nuclear warhead with the Aswan dam written all over it.........
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Apr 9 2024 15:44 utc | 27
I suppose for the murdering Zionists creating a wider scale conflict in the region might draw some attention away from their genocide of the Palestinian people, currently the Zionists don't allow the foreign media in to check what's actually going on in Gaza, a wider scale conflict, of which the Zionists would surely need the help of its allies to pursue, would see the eyes of the world's foreign journalists focus more on that reporting wise because they would have access to it.
As for the target of the Zionists and its genocide enabling allies, I'd imagine that a direct attack on Iran would be a bit much, possibly Yemen or Lebanon would be the targets.
However we won't know for sure until it unfolds.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Apr 9 2024 15:47 utc | 28
Maybe nutjobby will declare UDI. That Israel is the sole arbitrator of Israel 's actions and is not answerable to the United Nations and its Resolutions in favour of Palestine in the past.
I certainly think that the US has told Israel that both countries are likely to be in breach of the ICJ and that the US , for its own part , can no longer afford to continue to be seen to be assisting genocide with immediate effect.
If Israel breaks away from the International community, it may, in its total self-delusion , think that it can cause enough sabotage to any superpower that challenged its behaviour to make them think twice.
This psychotic delusion forgets that if everybody in the world was united Against Israel under international Law, a whole new spectrum of new military interventions would automatically be put in place.
Then when they push into their neighbours' countries like Hitler did raising their in their eyes momentous flag over for example Amman, a United RoW would intervene too late.
Nutjob is a Nazi who believes that Jewish financiers who control the world want what he wants. But he'd be shocked to find out that they'd much prefer to stay in Moscow , London and New York.
Netanyahu is mad.
Posted by: Giyane | Apr 9 2024 15:48 utc | 29
i thought it was oddly sunny as well. himmleryahu has kept hinting he'll green light the attack on rafah any time now and the ashkeNAZIs never stick to a cease fire anyway.
technically, they already attacked iran since they hit their embassy (oddly right around the time ecuador stormed mexico's).
the "israelis" are rabid, stupid dogs. always have been. they've been given carte blanche for 100+ years and have made it clear they love the hatred aimed at them. they'll start WWIII for beachfront property so it will take turning tel aviv into a smoking crater to stop them. just look at the video of bibi barely containing his malevolent glee after thw WCK slaughter if you need evidence.
Posted by: bornhard | Apr 9 2024 15:48 utc | 30
[email protected], eh? Can't we just boycott the shit hole, freeze all their assets, stop all trade except for humanitarian food shipments, at least show them how real charity works, and save countless thousands, millions, billions, oh, and the planet from such complete unnecessary turmoil.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 9 2024 15:48 utc | 31
Are the ultra orthodox planning some sort of BBQ? Wow, that is alot of beef?
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Apr 9 2024 15:48 utc | 32
I think the continued murder of innocents and driving the rest into the desert is enough of an escalation.
Am hopeful the delay in Iran's response to Israel murders in Syria indicates something going on behind the scenes that works toward a ceasefire and retreat of Israeli hostilities.
For the 'major escalation' game going on: I vote for an Israeli false flag that requires direct confrontation with Iran.
Cheers!
Posted by: gottlieb | Apr 9 2024 15:52 utc | 33
Posted by: Nokaz | Apr 9 2024 15:19 utc | 19
##############
Unintended consequences. It seems to be the only consequence America can produce reliably these days.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 9 2024 15:56 utc | 34
Karl is right: the historical irony of this war is that, in the final analysis, it is all about whether Netanyahu can cobble together a majority in the Knesset without giving clinically insane fanatics the power to dial up Armageddon.
The fault, of course, lies with the US (its allies have long since been intellectually castrated) which- one suspects even to Netanyahu's embarassment- refuses to lay down the law.
Without US permission the Israelis could not entertain the idea of attacking Lebanon let alone Iran. But the US is paralysed by decades of self induced stupidity and a political system which ensures the survival of those least fit for office. (Cut to video of Biden at 'work' in the Oval office.)And, significantly, we have heard nothing from the oligarchs who have everything to lose if the US is led to disaster by Tel Aviv. It's a peculiar system: the oligarchs select the government but then they leave them to it. Anyone who expects Gates or Bezos or Soros to introduce some sanity is going to be disappointed.
The net result is that the madmen in Israel's cabinet have the support of the US- Netanyahu is hoist by his own petard, wriggle though he may he will be forced to attack Rafah, which will be a military, political and, oh yes, a humanitarian catastrophe, by the US which refuses to tell him that he cannot. It may tell us that it tells him that he should not. It may tell the world that it wishes that he would not. But it cannot form the simple word NO regarding Israel's Right to Kill whoever it chooses.
The truth is that the US has lost its agency in this matter. What Sissi, Erdogan or MbS decide is critical: it it probably beyond their power of comprehension but they could end this war very easily. The net result might be some sleazy photos in the tabloids or some videos of "live boys and dead girls" unclothed but their names would live forever in the muslim world.
As to attacking Iran, whether that is viable depends entirely on how seriously Iran's alliances with Russia and China are taken-by the Russians and Chinese. Again a word from either of those powers could be crucial.
'b's overly optimistic prediction yesterday is a perfect example of the madness of this war. By any rational calculation he was right: Israel had to be looking for a way out. But when Israel, where the public appears to be completely behind this genocide,is concerned all rational bets are off. We are dealing with a ruling elite which has no doubt of its superiority to the rest of mankind, and finds every new massacre, every fresh revelation of depraved serial murdering, only confirmations of its power and strength, its impregnability.
Of course those involved could all relocate in the US or Canada or wherever they chose tomorrow, they all have access to enormous wealth and if they have any skin in the game it can easily be replaced if need be. Israel is drunk on the power of its impunity, dizzy with the euphoria that only a sadist could understand, the sense of power that comes from surveying the fresh corpses of thousand of victims around him.
Posted by: bevin | Apr 9 2024 15:56 utc | 35
[email protected] was a regular at the Saker site, Mundo maniac, I think, I always enjoyed his astral projections. No different than any other belief system.....except planets in motion, at times do collide.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 9 2024 15:57 utc | 36
regarding Yves'track record - I've noticed an occasional tendency to make "dark horse" predictions, analogous to what many sports writers do. Coin flip.
Posted by: Osori | Apr 9 2024 16:00 utc | 37
sean the leprechaun | Apr 9 2024 15:48 utc | 30--
Thanks for your reply. Yes, we should do all those things you listed, but as I wrote none of that's likely to deter the sort of person Netanyahu is or the Zionist public as they have a very different way of thinking as Crooke's been hammering away at trying to get us to see just that. Megalomaniacs and serial killers are irrational and capable of just about anything. And there're nutjobs within the Outlaw US Empire that are of a similar mind and thus will support whatever crime the Zionists commit next.
I was hoping to read of some progress in action by Russia/China with Lavrov's trip to China, but what I've read says nothing new. I'll be posting a report on that trip at my substack later today.
The daily account of Gazan casualties (deaths) had dropped to about fifty a day over the past week, but tripled overnight. This included more direct attacks on aid distribution. Hundreds of decopmposed bodies are being unearthed at al-Shifa. If diplomats are privately sharing information that Israel has something even worse in the works…it’s hard to fathom the malignant cruelty as it is.
Rafah invasion? There doesn’t appear any practical logistical preparation for such an operation at this time. 40,000 tents are hardly sufficient at all, and reference to such may be merely information management. The continuing threats to invade Rafah may likewise be negotiation ploys.
Israel has so far failed to achieve its war aims, and is gradually becoming cornered (isolated). A stunning shocking escalatory act would serve no strategic purpose in the war as is, and would draw the Americans in only as a desperate response to a massive response to the shocking event. The Israelis can dish it out, but they can’t take it, and the Resistance has the means to respond in great depth. The Americans and Europeans also have insufficient public support for taking Israel’s side, and going “all-in” after a major atrocity will further destabilize the domestic scene.
However, two weeks ago Nasrallah stated “90 percent” certainty that a regional war would not break out, but after last week’s embassy bombing he advised that people should be “prepared” for a regional war. Israel's war cabinet meets shortly.
Posted by: jayc | Apr 9 2024 16:06 utc | 40
Today's article by Thierry Meyssan, voltairenet. According to him, the US is making both kinds of weapon shipments - to Ukraine, and Israel - under blackmail by Ukrainian nationalists and the Zionists - threatening to go nuclear if shipments were to be stopped.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article220708.html
I don't know what to say, what to believe. Would explain some of Western behavior. Doesn't exactly cheer me up.
Posted by: grunzt | Apr 9 2024 16:08 utc | 41
Thanks for the report b.
I’ve always been on the side of Iran having MAD deterrence. The empire can’t claim ignorance, if there is an attack on Iran proper, in which case, we can all bend over to hold our ankles, and kiss our asses goodby. If there is an attack on Iran, Iran’s reply would be to go large — that is, empty all barrels, all at once. We’ll see who will be suing for peace, and the world economy, well, that will be damned for sure.
I’ve written here, in these very pages before: the only way to end an Iran war is nukes. Once one nuke is detonated, many more need to follow. Even a decapitated Iran will have it’s armed forces intact and will lash out.
I think all the yapping from the chihuahua has more to do with an empire-Iran deal, for Iran not to attack the entity — in response to the embassy attack —for the reciprocal action of ending the war in Palestine.
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Apr 9 2024 16:08 utc | 42
Operation Barbarossa led to the downfall of Nazi Germany and history, as demonstrated in Gaza, continues repetitively. Israel launching an offensive attack against Iran would be unfathomable, matching the great lunacy of the 20th century.
Posted by: Wilikins | Apr 9 2024 16:10 utc | 43
bevin | Apr 9 2024 15:56 utc | 34--
Thanks for your addition. I have nothing more to add at this time as events will speak first. One thing I will say is the Zionists have no place in the multipolar world as they're outliers to the max just as are those within the hegemonic West incapable of changing their ways. IMO, those afflicted by megalomania and pleonexia are incurable and must either be eliminated or removed from contact with Humanity until they expire. The world of the future has no room for such creatures.
@ sean the leprechaun | Apr 9 2024 15:57 utc | 35 /
thanks.. i think they used to visit moa, or someone else did who would offer some astro overview... i take it with a big grain of salt, lol.
Posted by: james | Apr 9 2024 16:16 utc | 45
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Apr 9 2024 16:08 utc | 41
################
I have heard that Iran possesses the ballistic missile capability to do to Israel what a nuke would do, without the radiation.
I believe the knowledge of that is what has been staying Israeli and American hands for some time.
So many people think the Iranians are Mexico or some other dysfunctional nation with backwater capabilities. I suspect the average IRGC soldier is as good as most in the world, and obviously, their Generals are excellent planners.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 9 2024 16:17 utc | 46
what is yves smith prediction track record??
Posted by: james | Apr 9 2024 15:11 utc | 17
She believes in apocalyptic man-made climate disruption so she's O-fer there.
Posted by: Phil R | Apr 9 2024 16:28 utc | 47
...
Ominous.
A direct attack on Iran?
Or what else might that major escalation be?
Yesterday, Bibi announced that he has set an undisclosed date for a jewish rampage through Rafah.
He was pissing into the wind. All that will get him is wet shoes. If he doesn't order a ceasefire in Gaza Very Soon Iran will reinstate its payback plan for Jewrail's Syrian war crime on the Iranian Embassy.
One suspects that Bibi is going to learn, The Hard Way, that believing too much of your own bullshit is bad for your health.
Very bad.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 9 2024 16:32 utc | 48
No one in the Middle East is going to retaliate against Israel in any meaningful way as long as America is around, and everyone knows it. They do little pin prick assaults here and there to save face but Israel is going to do whatever the hell it wants so long as it's Golem is protecting it.
Posted by: bored | Apr 9 2024 16:39 utc | 49
Stirring up more chaos when US pols start to get cold feet is par for the course. Guess we'll see the specifics.
Posted by: pxx | Apr 9 2024 16:43 utc | 50
True story this.
A couple of years ago, the divil sat down with China, the US and Russia. The divil asked China and Russia 'what country do you see as the biggest threat to mankind?'. They both answered Israel. The divil asked the US the exact same question and the US replied Iran.
The divil looked at all three of them and said, 'well lads, you know what needs to be done so. Of ye go and do it.'
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Apr 9 2024 16:44 utc | 51
karlof1 | Apr 9 2024 15:07 utc | 15
Apart from Nutty and internal issues, there is also the need of continued support from the US. Preceding the Hamas raid was was the mosque. Hams conducts the operation against Israel and Israel uses 'self defense as the figleaf for the genocide which the US also used. US position became untenable so a reset was in order.
If something is to happen then a provocation first so Israel/US can again use the figleaf of self defense.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 9 2024 16:44 utc | 52
Israel, and to considerable degree so does the US, treat Iran as a "stand alone" bad guy. Inaccurate. Important to remember the Triple Alliance which is the loose affiliation of Iran, Russia and China, all of which entail not only economic affiliation but also military. Also, Iran is perceived as strong and well respected in diplomatic relations across the Islamic world.
Inquiring minds wonder with whom Bill Burns, head of CIA, met with when he was in Egypt. Unusual that he would be directly involved in the hostage negotiations. However, Blinken has shown himself unable to in any way temper Netanyahu's war madness, which has trampled every red line. Note that Burns' presence in the middle east was announced after Israel bombed the Iranian embassy.
Inquiring minds also wonder if the current perpetuation of the Ukraine war is partly a means of keeping Russia's attention off of the Middle East. Particularly, since Russia-Israel relations are at an all time low.
Pundits predict the appearance of a black swan... The fall out from virtually any substantial nuclear weapon has the ability to poison much of the middle east, further enraging Israel's neighbors, all of whom are well aware of Israel's disrespect for the lives of the others.
Posted by: abierno | Apr 9 2024 16:48 utc | 53
Apart from all politics, what is Netanyahu doing in a tunnel annoying an obviously sedated cow on a mattress? Was the cow an Hamas hostage? Did you ever see a politician sitting in a tunnel with a cow?
This M*F* is sacrificing this red cow according to the Jewish tradition
https://twitter.com/BobbySeeta/status/1777702558510858314
https://twitter.com/BobbySeeta/status/1777702558510858314/photo/1
juliania | Apr 9 2024 15:26 utc | 21
Thanks.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 9 2024 16:53 utc | 54
re my @41, no sooner than I said a deal might be in the works, I see it in the media.
https://www.newarab.com/news/iran-hold-response-syria-strike-if-truce-agreed
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Apr 9 2024 16:55 utc | 55
Posted by: james | Apr 9 2024 15:11 utc | 17 what is yves smith prediction track record??
If you asked her she would say 100%.
She is a very vile person after all.
Posted by: v | Apr 9 2024 17:00 utc | 56
Bibi has been a puppet his entire career to Sara's family of crazies.
Posted by: Polli | Apr 9 2024 17:04 utc | 57
Posted by: bored | Apr 9 2024 16:39 utc | 48
############
I'd say that attacking 9 ships and shutting down Israel/Empire-related shipping between the Cape of Good Hope and the Red Sea is more than a "pinprick".
And then there are the strikes on the Eliat port. You must not know about those, as anything less than a Dresden-style firebombing doesn't seem to move your needle.
America has been so agitated by what Ansarallah are doing that they have launched missile strikes against those pinprickers!
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 9 2024 17:04 utc | 58
Agree with Sakineh, once you lost the miliary and political polarization game you are done. Likudnicks are at the end of the rope.
Posted by: ATH | Apr 9 2024 17:06 utc | 59
al Jazeera piece on the Texas red heifers.
T
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/9/what-do-texan-red-heifers-have-to-do-with-al-aqsa-and-a-jewish-temple
"They have come from halfway across the world and are kept under tight security and raised according to the strictest rules.They are five pure red heifers without blemish who have never worked, given birth, been milked or worn a yoke."
https://www.jewishvoice.org/read/article/update-building-third-temple
The importance to Orthodox Jews of rebuilding the Temple lies in its role in the redemption of the world, which they believe can only take place once the Temple is rebuilt. Gershon Salomon is director of the Temple Mount Faithful, an organization that has been trying to prepare Israeli society to accept and promote the rebuilding of the Temple through demonstrations at the Temple site, the construction of a cornerstone for the Third Temple, and the making of various Temple-related utensils. Salomon has said: “[Building the Third Temple] is an act which must be done to complete the redemption of the people of the Bible in the Land of the Bible.For Orthodox Jews committed to reestablishing the Temple, both the present problems of the world and the problems faced by the Jewish people will be solved only by rebuilding.
Crazies.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 9 2024 17:08 utc | 60
Word is that the State Department tried to buy Yemen off by saying that if those "pinprickers" will open up shipping again (the spice must flow!) then the US will "consider" taking the Houthis off of the terrorism lists.
Notice, the Houthis could care less about American sanctions which is an increasingly popular view in the RoW.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 9 2024 17:09 utc | 61
Posted by: fnord | Apr 9 2024 15:41 utc | 25
"After a certain point, the only option left is to double down".
Thank you for your comment. I do not agree. There is always an option, except when death is imminent. And even then an option may exist as to how to die.
All this talk about about rift between the US and Natanyahu is mere surface.
There is no strategic rift between them or a tear in the interests that bind them.
It is common in (to use a criminal law term) a joint criminal enterprise that the members will diverge in tactics, but not in goals and strategy.
There comes a point in such criminal enterprises that the master(mind) thinks the goals have more or less been achieved and the time has come to conclude the criminal effort which the master is paying for and enabling in every essential way. But the executioners on the ground may want to continue, so anger and arguments between the master and the executioners ensues.
Sometimes the master even publicly accuses the executioners of committing war crimes, which they in fact are committing thanks to the master. All that looks on the surface like a serious rift, a change of course by the master, his abandonment of the executioners. But not at all, as long as the master is still paying and supplying the executioners with all they need to go on, and to commit crimes.
That is what we are seeing between the US and Israel/Natanyahu. Nothing at all has changed in the US military and related support for Israel, although some public rhetoric has hardened. That is not as big a deal as commentators make it out to be.Only deeds count, and the weapons and all other types of US support are flowing and flowing.
Israel is totally dependent on the US, it can not provoke a wider regional conflict (attack Lebanon or openly directly attack Iran) without US knowledge, approval and support.
Israel will be destroyed if it makes any such moves with or without US blessing or at US behest.
Circumstances have greatly changed, fear of the US (and of Israel) is gone, anger is boiling and hatred of them both is very high, determination to stop the bullies once and for all is strong and those who are ready do do it are numerous, capable, prepared, wise and experienced. Their morale is high because they have a just cause.
Posted by: JB | Apr 9 2024 17:17 utc | 62
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 9 2024 16:17 utc | 45
So many people think the Iranians are Mexico or some other dysfunctional nation with backwater capabilities. I suspect the average IRGC soldier is as good as most in the world, and obviously, their Generals are excellent planners.
When we were at Carnegie-Mellon in the sixties until just before Iran Revolution, Iranians made up largest contingent of foreign students in engineering.
Iranians were largest group over-all of foreign students in US universities, including not least the Iveys. Pahlavi had the money and the ambition for the nation.
Oh, and that empire thing? Persia did it first.
Posted by: ChasMark | Apr 9 2024 17:19 utc | 63
Posted by: grunzt | Apr 9 2024 16:08 utc | 40
Thank you for sharing the formidable Voltaire essay. It does explain a lot.
I believe it.
I advise others to check it out
scary stuff
Posted by: ld | Apr 9 2024 17:29 utc | 64
"Nobody move or the bunny gets it!"
-- Con Air
It is hard for me to see any such move that might actually make the Izzies situation better, but that may not matter. Crooke's eschatology argment may apply.
Bluffing is mothers milk to both Israel and Uncle Sugar, the "Crazy Guy" strategy they call it. Not really a strategy at all.
And FUD too.
Iran's interior is very hard to hit, except with ballistic missiles, and Israel is a piece of cake.
I would say it is about time for the blow off, one way or another though. "Time will tell."
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 9 2024 17:36 utc | 65
Lysias @5
Nuke?
A few days ago UWDude raised the possibility that Israel doesn't have nukes. of course he got pushback since everyone "knows" (including me) that Israel has nukes. However, being too lazy to plow through the reams of evidence concerning the possibility Israel has/hasn't got nukes I decided that it's just simpler to game all scenarios through this option since it's only two ply:
Israel has nukes
/ \
no yes
\
yes, but they won't use them
From Wikipedia's entry on the Sampson Option:
However, over the years, some Israeli leaders have publicly acknowledged their country's nuclear capability: Ephraim Katzir in 1974, Moshe Dayan in 1981, Shimon Peres in 1998, and Ehud Olmert in 2006.[7]
During his 2006 confirmation hearings before the United States Senate regarding his appointment as George W. Bush's Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates admitted that Israel had nuclear weapons,[7] and two years later, in 2008, former US president Jimmy Carter stated the number of nuclear weapons held by Israel to be "150 or more"
But did any of these acknowledgements/claims come with any evidence? It's much easier, cheaper and safer to just claim or imply that one has nukes, an ingenious variation of Nixon's "Madman theory". And with a madman like Nuttyahoo in charge...
But I absolutely refuse to go through this process for Jewish space lasers!
Posted by: Gerry L Forbes | Apr 9 2024 17:41 utc | 66
Apart a ground invasion which I don't think, Lebanon is already being attacked.
Few mention Syria and the question there is if Russia has set a strong line. Either way the country is attacked regularly.
Directly against Iran is not likely but possible, if so refinement complexes and similar. The pretext being that Iran is verging on capability, or is capable.
For Rafah, possibly tunnels have been mapped by seismic reflection given there has been much opportunity to do so, and a very heavy depth bombardment will be used.
Anything else, at one point Cairo was minutes away, apparently.
All guesses.
Iranian conventional missiles are not deterrence, nor those from Hezbolah, much as there is a large capacity .
The trouble is :
"Israel" is making it, or has made it, so that it has no means of retreat.
The rest is to fear.
Posted by: Ornot | Apr 9 2024 17:41 utc | 67
But I absolutely refuse to go through this process for Jewish space lasers!
Posted by: Gerry L Forbes | Apr 9 2024 17:41 utc | 65
##############
As I read this, I couldn't help but think of Rick Moranis in Spaceballs.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Apr 9 2024 17:45 utc | 68
But I absolutely refuse to go through this process for Jewish space lasers!
Posted by: Gerry L Forbes | Apr 9 2024 17:41 utc | 65
The main question about Izzie nukes is whether they have been well maintained, they would seem to be quite old.
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 9 2024 17:59 utc | 69
Gerry L Forbes @65
Sorry. should have reviewed the post: obviously that diagram didn't turn out right.
Posted by: Gerry L Forbes | Apr 9 2024 18:01 utc | 70
@ crone
meant to include you in my last post.. thank you.
@ Phil R | Apr 9 2024 16:28 utc | 46 // v | Apr 9 2024 17:00 utc | 55
thanks! i don't follow her...
@ ld | Apr 9 2024 17:29 utc | 63
thanks for pointing out grunzts post id.. will check it out.. thanks grunzt @ grunzt | Apr 9 2024 16:08 utc | 40
Posted by: james | Apr 9 2024 18:07 utc | 71
Netanyahu will do anything to remain in power. Fortunately, he is running out of options. This threat of “something major” if it occurred would be the agonal last gasp. Whatever it is, the world would go on but Israel will not be in it.
Posted by: Moses22 | Apr 9 2024 18:11 utc | 72
A direct attack on Iran?Or what else might that major escalation be?
Yours is a good guess, b. The only other escalation that is comparable in significance to this would be the use of nuke on Yemen. The significance is ghastly HUGE in that Israel so far has kept mum about possession of nukes meaning to imply they have none (although obliquely they have hinted at official level numerous times that they have fire power to drag the rest of the world with them if they were to perish, LOL!).
Since Dubya's second term of office Israel has been abetting and egging the Empire to move on wiping out Iran. The sarcasm among geopolitical punditry has been to urge Israel to make that move on its own. If you're so full of yourselves why don't you GO??? I think b senses that them Zionists are ready to make that kind of an ultimate move, now that since Oct. 7 their global image is shattered beyond recovery and a loss in this war logically means loss of their existence in the Middle East. To someone with bipolar bent, I mean the Netanyahu Clan of officials in the present Zionist administration, it is now, or never!
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 9 2024 18:14 utc | 73
Today's article by Thierry Meyssan, voltairenet. According to him, …
Posted by: grunzt | Apr 9 2024 16:08 utc | 40
An interesting article but it contains the following incredible claim:
During the Yemen war, Saudi Arabia bought tactical nuclear bombs from Israel and used them, but it does not seem to have them permanently at its disposal, nor to have mastered the technique.
Does anyone believe this to be the case?
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 9 2024 18:23 utc | 74
I do not doubt Iran has the capability of building nuclear weapons quickly. If I were them, I would have one or two ready should Israel get any ideas.
Posted by: Moses22 | Apr 9 2024 18:27 utc | 75
anon2020 | Apr 9 2024 18:23 utc | 73
Thierry Meyssan is somewhat challenged when it comes to separating fantasy from fact to put it mildly.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 9 2024 18:36 utc | 76
I think it's highly likely that Iran has nuclear weapons. It's why Iraq and Syria are often struck but Iran never is.
It would suit everyone to keep it quiet. The US Empire and Israel don't have to acknowledge a policy failure and the security of all nations is improved if a large scale war against Iran or an Israeli first strike are off the table. Realists in Washingston DC surely understand that war with Iran is their Gotterdammerung and the Neoconservatives who push for it are a greater danger to America than the Mullahs.
If North Korea can manufacture nuclear weapons i'm sure Iran can as well.
Posted by: SB | Apr 9 2024 18:37 utc | 77
Posted by: MFB | Apr 9 2024 15:00 utc | 12
I thought Bibi and the Zionists did a cover of the Cure's 'Killing an Arab'
Standing on a beach
With a gun in my hand
Staring at the sea
Staring at the sand
Staring down the barrel
At the Arab on the ground
To see his open mouth
But I hear no sound
I'm alive
I'm dead
I'm the stranger
Killing an Arab
Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 9 2024 18:38 utc | 78
Let's think about that piece of propaganda for a bit (everything is propaganda...I do propaganda , do you ?).
What could be the IOF objective ? Dragging the boyz in.
What could be the means ? Terrorism, spec op or precision airstrikes.
How to combine the objective and the mean ?
Then try to assess the consequences ?
Advertising for nuke option is pure fearmongering when you ask some simple feasibility questions... more so if you ask the consequences question.
Also, I modestly wonder if any lasting sanity have not leave the room at this point regarding this conflict and that's pretty grim if I could say so ...
Posted by: Hiro Masamune | Apr 9 2024 18:45 utc | 79
Israel was then forced, in two separate exchange deals, to release almost 6000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the [4] captured Nahal soldiers. The deals were severely criticized in Israel, for being extremely "lopsided"
They are correct. If one israeli life is worth 10,000 goyim, they should have released 40,000 prisoners.
Posted by: c matt | Apr 9 2024 18:46 utc | 80
Somewhat OT to this thread, but since Sino-Gringo relationship is globally linked to any issue I'll make this personal observation here anyway:
Yellen just concluded her visit to China, sans the ceremonial meeting with Xi Jinping to at least cosmetically give some false impression of harmony. On the day she left, Lavrov arrived and had an audience with Xi right away. Given China's practice of careful management of diplomatic nuances, this contrast in diplomatic interaction has to be intentional! In addition to Xi not receiving Yellen, the Chinese press is VERY negative on Yellen's pronouncements and attitude. This is rather unusual, given China's motto of either saying something nice or shut the hell up routine in diplomacy.
Blinken is to arrive next. Is Xi going to forego a handshake session with him too? We shall see. And if so, this means a new stance in China's protocol with respect to the Gringos. Given Gringo's history of temper with respect to loss of diplomatic face, this would be an oblique signal from China of its readiness for war, if it comes to that. And given the bull-in-a-china-house antics of Israel in Gaza, the Middle East is very likely the use to the next BIG powder keg.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 9 2024 18:46 utc | 81
Jewrael's Nukes?
Has anyone bothered to read the Made-for-Media story of Modechai Vanunu? What a crock of crap!
It's easy to forget that jews are greedy liars. If Jewrael ever got enough money together in one place to start a Nuclear Weapons program, the ~12 Ruling Families (of which Mrs Netanyahu is a member) would steal it and turn it into luxury yachts, luxury apartments in EU, and blood diamonds. To greedy jews too much money could never be enough...
If Jewrael launched some Nukes it would be the world's first (and last) non-Muslim suicide-bombing.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 9 2024 18:47 utc | 82
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 9 2024 18:36 utc | 75
Shame about that because it’s an otherwise interesting perspective.
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 9 2024 18:54 utc | 84
Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 9 2024 18:38 utc | 77
The "stranger" in the song is Meursault from the Camus novel "The Stranger" in which a French settler colonialist murders an Arab with a pistol while lashing out in a kind of heatstroke fever dream.
Not a bad analogy to the rabid dog that is Zionist Israel. In my version of the metaphor, Bibi is merely an engorged tick stuck to the dog.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 9 2024 18:55 utc | 85
to James # 17. Not so great. She does sell herself well though...
Posted by: Formerly Miss Lacy | Apr 9 2024 18:56 utc | 86
During the Yemen war, Saudi Arabia bought tactical nuclear bombs from Israel and used them, but it does not seem to have them permanently at its disposal, nor to have mastered the technique.
Does anyone believe this to be the case?
Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 9 2024 18:23 utc | 73
Agreed. I think there is zero chance this is the case.
But let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater.
I do find it conceivable that Zionists planned blackmailing JUSA with nuclear armageddon in Israel and Ukraine. And more than plausible they worked in conjunction to achieve global domination through: genociding, disempowering, controlling all the oil, all the water, all the food and all the weapons. (see the beggaring and disarmament migrant invasion of EU... et al)
Trillions spent on the global food basket by zionist corporations who thirst for all of Russia's juicy bits. I can see their keen interest on the continuation of Russia's destruction.
A plan this nefarious may take a hundred years to pull off.
1917- the time is now
Posted by: ld | Apr 9 2024 19:07 utc | 87
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 9 2024 15:07 utc | 15
Karlof1, Col. McGregor on Judge Nap this morning said two or three times that he thought Israel might use tactical nukes against Hesbollah if things got bad.
https://www.youtube.com/live/7DSSSuhF64s?si=ZtHKHPpl2Hm7J9UA
Posted by: Morongobill | Apr 9 2024 19:07 utc | 88
If that escalation would be in military avenue - it would proabably be attack at Lebanon
But i'd rather expect symbolical-historicval terrorism, like demolition of Al Aksa mosque
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 9 2024 19:10 utc | 89
Next time you see a Bibi Press Conference, ask yourself:
"How drunk is this crittur?"
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 9 2024 19:12 utc | 90
The "stranger" in the song is Meursault from the Camus novel "The Stranger"
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Apr 9 2024 18:55 utc | 84
No shit. Mate you really have to stop assuming that we all need an education. And it's Camus' novella L'Étranger if were going to start teaching each other to suck eggs.
Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 9 2024 19:12 utc | 91
I think they will either take out high level Hezbollah leadership with missile or drone strikes or they will take out that Iranian reconnaissance ship parked near Yemen along with top Houthis leadership.
Direct attack on Iran proper is less likely at this point. If Israeli actions go unanswered then a direct attack on Iran is on the cards.
Posted by: Al | Apr 9 2024 19:18 utc | 92
Re: Likud‘s Nukes ?
Given the enormous gap between the narrative of the unbeatable IDF and its miserable amateurish performance over the last 6 months…..why would anyone believe that Israeli nukes would actually function if they even exist ?
Posted by: Exile | Apr 9 2024 19:20 utc | 93
> During the Yemen war, Saudi Arabia bought tactical nuclear bombs from Israel and used them
> Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 9 2024 18:23 utc | 73
Used? Definitely not. Remember Chernobyl or Fukushima, in no time winds and sea currents spread contamination so that even remote lands (Western Europe and USA) measured it.
Also, from purely tactical viewpoint nuking Houthi would give very little, yet could expose KSA themselves to the fallout.
Bought? Almost surely not. Why would Israel sell those, if it has? Israel does not have factories rubber-stumping those nukes like hotdogs. Even if it has any still working chain of factories - it is a chain of clandestine ones, so no spy could for years report any proof on them. Such factories - if ever existed, still existing and still operating - can only be of rather limited production rate. How would've Israel resupplied the lost nukes?
Also, having the warhead is only good for blowing yourself. You also have to have "means of delivery". What does Israel have? CAS-fighters like F-35? Those can drop free falling bombs, maybe gliding bombs like JDAM, but the range is still short. I did not hear about Israel producing some 1000-miles range attack rockets, for their alleged nukes. Hence what exactly would KSA buy then? Demon cores?
Meanwhile there are Pakistan and Nothern Korea and maybe India too, where KSA could purchase nuclear rockets, both warheads and vehicles, if they really would want.
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 9 2024 19:22 utc | 94
(false flag) ISIS attack on major US embassy, base or ship getting Congress to 100% authorize declaration of war.
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 9 2024 19:10 utc | 88
"But i'd rather expect symbolical-historicval terrorism, like demolition of Al Aksa mosque"
Of course that would be the ultimate "f_ck you" to the world and possibly a bridge too far even for the most rabid Zionists*, because as surely as night follows day, the Holy War of all religious wars would break out.
*No guarantees that the Zionists are smart enough to read the tea leaves.
Posted by: Morongobill | Apr 9 2024 19:26 utc | 96
> ...getting Congress to 100% authorize declaration of war.
> Posted by: scorpion | Apr 9 2024 19:23 utc | 94
On which nation exactly? USA would just blow few random places in Syria or Iraq and claim revenge done.
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 9 2024 19:28 utc | 97
anyone watch the ICJ German defence and the b******s show of Cameron and
Blinken this evening and able to summarise all this vomit?
Posted by: Jo | Apr 9 2024 19:28 utc | 98
This is of course assuming Yves is not engaging in exaggerated speculation. My impression of recent history is that it's all very much in line with the last 500 years.
That said, it is interesting to watch how the US deals with Bibi. Usually the US has 'its man' at the helm. Saddam was its man in Iraq until he got uppity and thought he was in charge of Iraq, and that Iraq should be governed for the Iraqi people. Israel is obviously a special case, but the State Dept do have contingency plans for dealing with leaders who go off-script. Yves may be right, and Bibi might be insane and cunning in equal measure, but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Bibi were to have an accident at some point. Stalin was reputed to have said: "There is a man. He is a problem. No man—no problem."
Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 9 2024 19:31 utc | 99
> and possibly a bridge too far even for the most rabid Zionists
> Posted by: Morongobill | Apr 9 2024 19:26 utc | 95
for Netanyahoo himself it maybe would not make a lot of difference, to go out with a bang or rot in jail. And hist henchmen, facing the same choice.
also for a while there is a premonition there is a cult in the world which reads the Scriptures (Book of Revelation, etc) as "instructiuon manual" and see the god as a kind of kitchen appliance. You just have to learn which buttons to press. They might see trigerring the war at Megiddo a good think to force heavenly Gethsemane open the doors for them.
Posted by: Arioch | Apr 9 2024 19:33 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Hope Nasrallah is safe ...
Posted by: Erast Fandorin | Apr 9 2024 14:37 utc | 1