Ukraine's Demographics Again Dictate To End The Fight
The neoconservatives have launched their probably last attempt to save their project in Ukraine.
Edward N Luttwak @ELuttwak - 13:42 UTC · Mar 16, 2024
In Ukraine the age of conscription is 27, that is when people have started to work & have children. Naturally not many show up. Now they are discussing lowering the age to 25, still absurd. 18 is the right age, with bodies of growing strength. The Ukraine army is much too small
Following Luttwak's urging, a neocon Senate stooge jumped in:
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) called on Ukrainian lawmakers Monday to quickly pass a mobilization bill that would make more citizens eligible to be drafted into the military, and he sharply questioned exempting men under 27 from the fight.Graham called for the swift legislative action — even as U.S. lawmakers remain unable to reach their own consensus on aid for Ukraine — while visiting Kyiv, his first trip to the Ukrainian capital since he abruptly turned against a $60 billion aid package for the country last month.
...
Ukraine is already short of soldiers and ammunition, and Russia is advancing on the battlefield, having recently seized the eastern city of Avdiivka after a Ukrainian retreat. Ukraine’s new mobilization law, which has been under debate for months as the country faces a severe shortage of battle-ready troops, proposes lowering the country’s draft age to 25. Although citizens can voluntarily join the military starting at age 18, and men between 18 and 60 are banned from leaving the country under martial law, the draft has until now protected younger men — many of whom are students — from being forcibly mobilized.“I would hope that those eligible to serve in the Ukrainian military would join. I can’t believe it’s at 27,” he told reporters Monday. “You’re in a fight for your life, so you should be serving — not at 25 or 27.”
“We need more people in the line,” he said.
Hmm - who is this "we" please? Is this meant as a pluralis majestatis or as an admission that the whole war is not about Ukraine but about the selfish aims of some lunatic clique in Washington DC?
Neither Luttwak nor Graham seem to have any knowledge of Ukraine's demography. I pointed out six month ago that there are hardly a significant number of 18 to 25 year old left in Ukraine. If that cohort gets further diminished by senseless dying Ukraine's future will be even more bleak than it is now. Even the British nuts who earlier proposed to draft 18 year old Ukrainians have learned to shut up about it.
The graphic below, taken from Wikipedia's Demographics of Ukraine, presumes that Ukraine has a population of some 40 million:
bigger
But the real population number in the areas under control of the Ukrainian government is by now only about 20 million, half of which are people of retirement age. Drafting the few men of age 18 to 25 will not help to win the war but will, over time, further depopulate Ukraine.
The new mobilization law in Ukraine is slow to move through the parliament. There are many reasonable objections to it. The law will probably pass in April to be signed in May and to be fully enacted by June. It will increase the real mobilization numbers by only a few percentage points.
If those who will be mobilized under it the new law will get the training required they will join the front only by fall. It is unfortunately more likely that they will be immediately send to the front line to die. Either way there is no doubt who will win the fight.
Alex Vershinin of RUSI correctly describes this is as a war of attrition:
Attritional wars require their own ‘Art of War’ and are fought with a ‘force-centric’ approach, unlike wars of manoeuvre which are ‘terrain-focused’. They are rooted in massive industrial capacity to enable the replacement of losses, geographical depth to absorb a series of defeats, and technological conditions that prevent rapid ground movement. In attritional wars, military operations are shaped by a state’s ability to replace losses and generate new formations, not tactical and operational manoeuvres. The side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining terrain is most likely to win.
The West is not prepared for this kind of war.
But Russia was prepared for this, just as it had been during previous wars. It is the side which has accepted attritional warfare. It will win.
There are currently more daily losses in the Ukrainian army than newly mobilized men joining it. To surrender to the Russian forces is seen as a real opportunity.
It is high time for Ukraine to give up. Its supporters should urge it to do so.
As Vershinin closes:
Unfortunately, many in the West have a very cavalier attitude that future conflicts will be short and decisive. This is not true for the very reasons outlined above. Even middling global powers have both the geography and the population and industrial resources needed to conduct an attritional war. The thought that any major power would back down in the case of an initial military defeat is wishful thinking at its best. Any conflict between great powers would be viewed by adversary elites as existential and pursued with the full resources available to the state. The resulting war will become attritional and will favour the state which has the economy, doctrine and military structure that is better suited towards this form of conflict.
If the West is serious about a possible great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its industrial capacity, mobilisation doctrine and means of waging a protracted war, rather than conducting wargames covering a single month of conflict and hoping that the war will end afterwards. As the Iraq War taught us, hope is not a method.
Make peace you fools.
Posted by b on March 19, 2024 at 9:56 UTC | Permalink
next page »It's a clique in the city of London pushing this. The City is an independent country and imperial metropol run on East India company principles with three top tier comprador colonies, UK, US, and Zion, and many lower tier ones - 2nd tier is EU, Japan, Canada, Anzac... There may be nuances but this is the best basic framework
I should think once President Zelensky's term expires at the end of March, either the Verkhovna Rada will demand that he step aside to allow it to raise a delegation of politicians prepared to negotiate peace terms with Moscow or a group of officers and soldiers in the AFU will find a way to frag him.
As long as Zelensky stays in power, and Syrsky continues to take orders from him and send more soldiers into the meat-grinder, Ukraine will continue to commit slow suicide.
So either Zelensky goes, off into exile in Miami or Italy, or into another dimension altogether, or the whole of Ukraine goes, with the east and southeast going to Russia, and what remains being dismembered by Poland, Hungary and Romania leaving behind a carcass around Kiev (and maybe not even that).
As for the likes of US Senator Lindsey Graham and his ilk, they've got their greedy little pig eyes focused on all that lovely land ripe for corporate GMO exploitation. If they can only find a way to get rid of all the military cemeteries taking up the space ...
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Mar 19 2024 10:33 utc | 3
Politicians are always quick to send other people's children to fight wars they are responsible for starting, especially the Yanks.
Posted by: Menz | Mar 19 2024 10:37 utc | 4
GDP per capita
Ireland (5) - Switzerland (10) - U.S. (15) - Germany (25) - Canada, UK, France (33-35-37) - Poland (59) - Russia (75) - Ukraine (140)
Economic growth EU -Euro area- @ 1,25% is near stagnation over period 2010-2023
Borrell the gardener only pulling weeds ….
Russia and the Axis of Resistance have decided to use this method of attrition as it is the best option. US and Israel are nuclear armed powers and if their backs were against the wall, would probably use them. An open full-on conflict between Russia and NATO would inflict huge damage, even if Russia came out on top. So the trick is to feed the wound just enough to cause pain that saps strength, but not enough to provoke a massive response. US and Israel need to be under the impression that they are in the dominant position, even as they are being sucked down into the mire. Russia could quite easily have advanced to Kiev and taken it, but that would have provoked huge propaganda against it. Just as the West invested huge time, money and energy in undermining the Soviet Union and eastern European countries under the sway of communism in the 1990's, so now Russia and the Axis of Resistance will look to internal decay as the way to defeat US and Israel. The more weakness becomes apparent in foreign relations, the more pressure there will be internally. The US presidential elections will be a huge source of pressure.
Posted by: aniteleya | Mar 19 2024 10:38 utc | 6
I was in Ukraine several times before the 2014 coup. I actually had wonderful times in Odessa. Being an American, many young people I spoke with wanted to get out of Ukraine back then. I can't imagine what it is like there now. I doubt seriously they will be able to conjure up another group of young men to die for nothing but US geopolitical games.
Posted by: Chicago Bob | Mar 19 2024 10:41 utc | 7
Conscription ought to be a war crime. It is a form of slavery.
It is only the greed and arrogance of the political leadership that requires shanghaiing unwilling men to be sent to war to die, and this is a form of murder.
Soldiers should be volunteers.
If a populace is unwilling to fight, if it is willing to accept defeat instead of death, so be it! Accept defeat and end the war.
Unwilling soldiers will not fight well, and cannot turn defeat into victory. There is no valid moral or ethical case for conscripting such men.
Posted by: ltexpat | Mar 19 2024 10:41 utc | 8
Outside of Avdiivka, the Russians remain hung up at the same line. Essentially there are a few lakes and some connecting creeks (not even rivers, very small, with tree lines). They have finally taken all of Orlivka, but not the lake and trees directly behind it.
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1770038030637629625
Tonenka, they haven't even captured all of the village yet, and it has a lake running through it. Berdiche similar story although they hold even less of that village. And Seminovka is located entirely behind a small lake, so they haven't even entered that yet.
Anyhow...here we are a month past Avdiivka victory and the incredible war machine can't clear out some tree lines. Yes...even with FABs. Gotta crank it up if we are going to drive towards the north Dnieper.
(Of course the people making comments like that don't even look at the map or do the math of distance versus rate of advance. Just like they talk about taking Odessa and seem ignorant that it is east of Kherson, which is completely unthreatened and has a very large river in the way.)
Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 19 2024 11:03 utc | 9
Plenty of Ukrainian men under 25....
... here in London.
Many more over 40 too.
Posted by: Mickey Droy | Mar 19 2024 11:03 utc | 10
Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 19 2024 11:03 utc | 9
Obviously you won't talk about the Ukies moving all their FPV suicide drones and artillery ammo to THAT frontline to stop the Russian advance at all cost. It's open country that the Russians must move through with no cover from drones.
Posted by: Surferket | Mar 19 2024 11:06 utc | 12
Posted by: Menz | Mar 19 2024 10:37 utc | 4
Politicians are always quick to send other people's children to fight wars they are responsible for starting, especially the Yanks.
There's no evidence for that! The truth is that only boys (men) are sent to fight wars, especially during draft/conscription. Even on this board there are toxic feminist - Schredinger feminists :) - posters who yap about "patriarchy", but will never volunteer to go to the front. Relatedly, where are the dumb ukranian bitches from FEMEN now? Anyone from them volunteer for the front? Crickets...
Posted by: Boo | Mar 19 2024 11:09 utc | 14
Can one explain to me how it is possible to have a male surplus in the ages of 18-25 ???
I thought that male are drafted first for military service and female only second and not in large quantities.
Thus it should be the other way around, no?
I'm no expert in statistics and after learning that a median can be calculated in 4 ore more ways, I've gave up...
Posted by: Tommy | Mar 19 2024 11:14 utc | 15
Indeed. A good piece, and many good comments.
But perhaps: this suits the western elites just fine. Throw the last dregs of Ukraine on the fire, burn the country to ashes, and if Russia wins it will conquer only ruin. Can you imagine trying to occupy the non-Russian speaking parts of Ukraine? It would make the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan look like a tea party, and bleed Russia white. But not occupying Ukraine would let the west continue to use the place as a launching pad for missile attacks on Russia.
The real issue now may not be the war per se, but how Russia translates military 'victory' into something that is not just a deeper quagmire. Putin may have figured it out, he's not infallible but he is smart, we will see.
Posted by: TG | Mar 19 2024 11:15 utc | 16
An extremely unpleasant situation for Ukraine has already developed along the entire front line. The advance of the Russian Armed Forces can be stopped only through the massive transfer of manpower from the rear. Now the question is what will end faster - the shells from the Russian Armed Forces or the people from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.And, judging by the forecasts of Western experts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will run out of people sooner. In particular, the former chief of the Polish general staff, Raimund Andrzejczak, said that Ukraine’s losses are estimated at “millions, not hundreds of thousands.”
“More than 10 million people are missing. According to my estimates, losses should be in the millions, not hundreds of thousands. The country has no resources, no one to fight. Ukrainians are losing this war,” he said in an interview with Polsat News.
Andrzejczak also mentioned shortcomings in the recruitment of troops, problems associated with the mobilization and supply of equipment. The general believes that the change in commander-in-chief could not change the strategic situation.
“There are no miracles in war. General Syrsky has the same dilemmas as General Zaluzhny. It turned out that he had to withdraw his troops and put the front line in order. All the problems that Zaluzny had remained,” says Andrzejczak.
It is noteworthy that the appointment of Bankova-controlled Syrsky really could not turn the tide on the battlefield, but there is a nuance. On the sidelines of the Ukrainian authorities there are already rumors that the Office of the President is in all seriousness preparing to “drain” Syrsky, since it is he (and not Zelensky, of course) who can be blamed for all the failures at the front.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22085
Posted by: Down South | Mar 19 2024 11:18 utc | 17
There is no doubt Ukraine would start conscripting younger then 18.
That is the only way to be loved by the west, what is the ultimate meaning of life there. Sometimes people must sacrifice their lives for a divine goal.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 19 2024 11:19 utc | 18
"It's a clique in the city of London pushing this. The City is an independent country and imperial metropol run on East India company principles with three top tier comprador colonies, UK, US, and Zion, and many lower tier ones - 2nd tier is EU, Japan, Canada, Anzac... There may be nuances but this is the best basic framework"
Posted by: stozi | Mar 19 2024 10:30 utc | 2
Another soul who has figured out whom or what is pressing the buttons for the West- The City.
We are a minority but our numbers are rising as Serfs lift the propaganda veil over their eyes.....
"Russia and the Axis of Resistance have decided to use this method of attrition as it is the best option. US and Israel are nuclear armed powers and if their backs were against the wall, would probably use them. An open full-on conflict between Russia and NATO would inflict huge damage, even if Russia came out on top. So the trick is to feed the wound just enough to cause pain that saps strength, but not enough to provoke a massive response. US and Israel need to be under the impression that they are in the dominant position, even as they are being sucked down into the mire. Russia could quite easily have advanced to Kiev and taken it, but that would have provoked huge propaganda against it. Just as the West invested huge time, money and energy in undermining the Soviet Union and eastern European countries under the sway of communism in the 1990's, so now Russia and the Axis of Resistance will look to internal decay as the way to defeat US and Israel. The more weakness becomes apparent in foreign relations, the more pressure there will be internally. The US presidential elections will be a huge source of pressure."
Posted by: aniteleya | Mar 19 2024 10:38 utc | 6
Best post I have read this morning and there are plenty of nominees!
aniteleya you should post more often.
US Secretary of War Austin just said "The US will not let Ukraine fail".
1) Ukraine already has failed.
2) The US is blaming Ukraine for the failure, which was predictable, predicted (Prof. Meirsheimer and many, many others, including US State Department) and therefore is the responsibility of and owned by the US, who provoked and funded the whole thing.
Posted by: bill wolfe | Mar 19 2024 11:34 utc | 21
Lindsay’To the last Ukranian ‘ Graham. Loved McCain… didn’t he ?
‘ Having never married or had children,[11] Graham has said, "I never found time to meet the right girl, or the right girl was smart enough not to have time for me." According to his memoir, while in law school, he had a girlfriend named Debbie, and two more during his time in the Air Force in Germany: a JAG officer named Carol who later served on Colin Powell's staff, and a flight attendant named Sylvia, whom he considered proposing to.[283] He has denied being gay.[284] ‘
Enough of that. The fool has no ‘skin’ in the future of humanity and is probably a misanthrope , hates humanity for the supposed bad cards he was dealt as a young man
His whole ‘career’ smacks of graft and forbidden love.
Maybe he has something to do with all the military generals and colonels strutting around in dresses and make up being they/thems … whatever.
He can’t be allowed to get away with ‘to the last Ukrainian’ that is a lot of blood on his hands and he wants more !
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 19 2024 11:42 utc | 22
repost edited from open thread
Me thinks a lot of people here are seeing things as either/or and their adversary as clowns equipped with rubbish. Reality is a somewhat more complex interplay of strengths/weaknesses/uncertainities/costraints of various nature.
Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 19 2024 9:19 utc | 322
and vargas and mario
Well sure. But most people don't bother to take the time to write a proper complex nuanced thesis that covers all the uncertainties possibilities variations to a theme which they might consider important .... it's a forum where mostly people just throw out their summary top line ideas without the details as general comments (some go deeper). No one is a Rand here or needs to be. A snap shot view is fine and however detailed one wishes to go is up to them.
@unimperator @325 ...
That's a good review, and quite possible. I'm less convinced the USA empire is about to tumble down as fast as you appear to be thinking it might.
While I instead keep pondering Russia's oft stated multiplex goals for the SMO and I'm still here scratching my head and going ... huh? How are you going to achieve all that now from here? Seemed like a good plan / goal in Feb 2022 ... now I'm far from convinced, but we'll see how they go from here.
Ukraine is obviously screwed, but even if Russia strikes a deadly blow and takes it all, or whatever piece they want now this year say, then what? Nothing has really changed much "security wise" since Feb 2022 except Ukraine has been wrecked .... what has changed is Russia will still be getting hit with drones and missiles and has totally lost it's naval and air freedom across the Black Sea.
Yes it's military has been reinvigorated, production is up, troop numbers, all great, but they also need it because now there are far more direct threats than ever there was in 2021. It might have 'survived sanctions' but it has gained anything really .... Ukraine is a burden now not an asset. It's a military drain for decades ahead surely. NATO isn't disbanding. Russia is now less safe.
Anyway, it is still very clouded where things really are today, and what might come next. Too much is hidden (as to be expected) So I'm not sure about anything myself. Beyond appearance appear not so great from Russia short or long term... as far as 'victory' is concerned. I cannot see how over 500K dead and more wounded Russians and Ukrainians and all the destruction has been worth what Russia has gained so far ----- versus simply defending their original borders from Ukr.Nato aggression and welcoming any UKr refugees into Russia with open arms instead.
Ukraine never was Russia responsibility to fix anyway! They made their choices, and cast their lots. All Russia really needed to do was protect their own borders and territory. They sure cannot do that now today.
The destruction of Ukraine and all that death doesn't look like winning to me. It just looks like destruction and death. That and this Rhetoric of how precious and how 'Russian' our Ukraine has always been from Putin .... it's awfully confected and bipolar imo and really stretches one's belief given the prior positions taken for decades.
No one has 'won' and no one will now. A POX on all their houses imo. It's all not credible Bullshit coming from every side now. And likely always was no matter how "good it sounded" in the beginning that this was a "noble endeavour" sold as one to stop a genocide of Ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Two years on and it is decidedly looking a really dumb decision for all concerned. But, I'll wait and see. I still assume anything might happen unexpectedly. None of us can know where this ends up.
Posted by: Lavrov's Dog | Mar 19 2024 11:51 utc | 23
"Ukraine never was Russia responsibility to fix anyway! They made their choices, and cast their lots. All Russia really needed to do was protect their own borders and territory. They sure cannot do that now today."
Posted by: Lavrov's Dog | Mar 19 2024 11:51 utc | 23
No, Russia can't protect their borders with the easily passable Ukrainian steppes being in possession of the Axis (which Ukraine was till 2014) and , it is now so it must be controlled.
Ukraine means 'border lands' it was and never will be a real country.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 19 2024 11:42 utc | 22
Graham‘s a filthy Necrocon ghoul alright. God knows what’s in the gimp dungeon.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 19 2024 12:25 utc | 25
Can one explain to me how it is possible to have a male surplus in the ages of 18-25 ???
Posted by: Tommy | Mar 19 2024 11:14 utc | 15
Note the caveat added to the WP graphic:
Ukraine population pyramid on 1 January 2023, estimations by the United Nations Note: Data and estimations after February 2022 are subject to considerable correction due to the effects of the war, emigration and the inability of authorities to gather timely and reliable demographic data.
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 19 2024 12:42 utc | 26
what has changed is Russia will still be getting hit with drones and missiles and has totally lost it's naval and air freedom across the Black Sea.
Posted by: Lavrov's Dog | Mar 19 2024 11:51 utc | 23
If Ukraine is taken then there will not be bases to launch them from with plausibile deniability. You can still do some terrorism but the level goes down.
And losing may have all sort of negative ramifications for NATO. Of course on the other hand Russia is stuck with a damaged Ukraine to rebuild.
That is the sort of take i was alluding to.
Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 19 2024 12:43 utc | 27
Putin's problem is that he is a rational person in an irrational world.
It was highly rational for Ukraine to accept the peace plan in 2022. But Ukraine, their society, is lead with only one goal: to please its western masters and gain sympathy from the west (devil). No matter how many would die because of that.
It was also highly rational to accept Russia as it was, specially for EU. It brought only profit from trade and cheap gas (for Germany). But Germany, EU, and USA are extremely irrational players. That is something Putin is slowly learning.
So, Putin could not have imagined the level of Ukrainian irrationality. And he made a terrible mistake to enter the total war in the moment when the total war was acceptable for Ukrainian society and the west (that was even a preferred option, they are ready and eager for die, up to the last one) and not for the Russian society.
Russia is now in a trap. The opponent has an immense escalation capacity while Russia cannot escalate against NATO. The optimal strategy for Russia is a slow war in Ukraine with the cost that it has to absorbe any hits form the West.
Russia cannot win if the opponent is not defeated. It is like WWII for Russia. And for the West it is just another easy going colonial war.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 19 2024 12:46 utc | 28
Posted by: vargas | Mar 19 2024 12:46 utc | 28
I've yet to see the immense escalation from NATO.
If any it have been better used last summer when afu was at his best.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 19 2024 12:51 utc | 29
If NATO escalates the game totally changes, with their ISR assets being taken out first. What do they do then?
If entering the war was a good idea, they would have done it a long time ago.
Posted by: Glasshopper | Mar 19 2024 12:58 utc | 30
Posted by: canuck | Mar 19 2024 12:11 utc | 24
I noticed a twist lately in the "papers"... quote "Ukraines' definition actually means **Our land** not borderland.. Another manipulation of reality brought forth to the masses.
Posted by: heavymetal101 | Mar 19 2024 12:59 utc | 31
They need more manpower to open new fronts in Russians rear. Stoltenberg arrived in Jerevan for consultations. Soon he will arrive in Georgia. Something is brewing
Posted by: SlowSoft | Mar 19 2024 13:14 utc | 32
Posted by: SlowSoft | Mar 19 2024 13:14 utc | 32
Azerbaijan issued ultimatum to Armenia. Unless Armenia hand over some border villages, Azerbaijan will attack Armenia.
Since Armenia has already resigned from the CIS security pact, it is no longer a Russian problem. The people get what they vote for.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 13:17 utc | 33
Putin's problem is that he is a rational person in an irrational world.
---
Posted by: vargas | Mar 19 2024 12:46 utc | 28
Nuts. The world is quite rational, it is people that are or are not crazy, depending on whether they adapt to the world or try to make the world adapt to them. Trying to make the world obey your wishes is like your thumb trying to attack your hand. It's not going to work out well for you.
Putin is a realist, he works with the world to get what he wants, and works hard. There is the secret of his success: hard work. We should try that instead of this "we make our own reality" bullshit.
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 19 2024 13:22 utc | 34
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Mar 19 2024 10:33 utc | 3
Your comment raises an interesting point. After March or sometime soon Zelensky's term expires legally (I've heard early May in a Dima video, but he cannot be considered authoritative.)
At that point, any Western pol visiting him is essentially like someone coming to the US and meeting with Trump, or that Guido guy they tried and failed to install in Venezuela. Zee's illegitimate.
Nothing is stopping them from going but the optics of it are going to get really bad. I'm sure the usual stooges from the UK don't care, but it is an election year in the US and it may hurt their credibility to the point where the juice is no longer worth the squeeze.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 19 2024 13:22 utc | 35
As already thought some time ago: the Ukraine war will end when the Ukrainians run out.
Posted by: xblob | Mar 19 2024 13:23 utc | 36
"Posted by: canuck | Mar 19 2024 12:11 utc | 24
I noticed a twist lately in the "papers"... quote "Ukraines' definition actually means **Our land** not borderland.. Another manipulation of reality brought forth to the masses."
Posted by: heavymetal101 | Mar 19 2024 12:59 utc | 31
I hadn't noticed that-thanks for illustrating the neo-propaganda.
EU to impose tariffs on Russian grain – FT
this is getting farcical.
"Kauft nicht beim russen!" seems to be the new nazi slogan in the valued west.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 19 2024 13:27 utc | 38
Putin's problem is that he is a rational person in an irrational world.
---
"Posted by: vargas | Mar 19 2024 12:46 utc | 28
Nuts. The world is quite rational, it is people that are or are not crazy, depending on whether they adapt to the world or try to make the world adapt to them. Trying to make the world obey your wishes is like your thumb trying to attack your hand. It's not going to work out well for you.
Putin is a realist, he works with the world to get what he wants, and works hard. There is the secret of his success: hard work. We should try that instead of this "we make our own reality" bullshit."
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 19 2024 13:22 utc | 34
An excellent and successful rebuttal!
Posted by: Tommy | Mar 19 2024 11:14 utc | 15
Statistics can be confusing and are often used to mislead.
My interpretation of that graph is that the term "male surplus" only means RELATIVE to the number of women in that age cohort. So, for age 20, we see a tremendous drop in the overall population numbers of both men and women as the hourglass figure is in a "neck" or narrow shape. However, there may be slightly more 20 y/o males vs. females based on the ratio being higher than statistical or demographic normal, whatever that is (51/49? who knows.)
It does not mean there is a huge pool of 20 y/o Ukrainian men sitting around doing nothing. It just means that for some reason, the ratio of men to women at the age is higher than normal. Another poster MAKK @26 noted that this pyramid likely represents data from before the war, so it could be due to females getting out of Ukraine more easily in the pre-war period as they found jobs in the EU or got to the US as mail-order brides, or found sex work.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 19 2024 13:32 utc | 40
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 19 2024 13:22 utc | 34
The west is irrational. If you look at what they are doing, they are suffering a bipolar disorder, every second week they are all over the map, switching from doom and gloom, to everything is fine, to apocalypse and other rampage.
It would make no sense at all for Russian position to mimic the bipolar western position. They are practicing the 'steady as she goes' method. They are averaging out all the mood swings.
The western position is steadily deteriorating, the western elites are just jumping around the baseline curve of their own position which is sloping down.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 13:36 utc | 41
Kiev's mobilization programme, presumably to round up the 18-25's who haven't fled the country (I would guess 150k men), is I think deliberately stalled. They want Uncle Sam to turn the money stream back on, since a portion of that money goes into their pockets.
That will probably happen late this month together with the budget compromise. There are hints that US House Speaker Johnson has made a deal in principle on "the border" vs Ukraine aid + Israel aid. (which they will pass via a "suspension motion", a bipartisan tactic when the party leaders together are pushing something unpopular -- requiring 2/3 majority in exchange for eliminating debate and locking out contrarian blocs).
Once Kiev knows the money is on again, they will ofc also want to be mindful of the attritional situation and keep the profitable situation going for as many years as possible.
Posted by: pxx | Mar 19 2024 13:39 utc | 42
It seems like everyone has forgotten NATO's slinking away from the 20-year disaster in Afghanistan. Nobody even mentions Afghanistan because it has vanished down the media memory hole. The same thing will happen to the Ukraine debacle. The U.S. and its vassals will declare that the rump Ukraine has won a "victory" and leave the occupied smoldering ruins for Russia to rebuild. The sanctions will continue, Cuba style, forever, but Russia will not be harmed because it has reoriented its trade to the east. The U.S. is tracking the downward trajectory of the U.K. and will be reduced to progressively more foolish posturing as the slow poisons of militarism and predatory capitalism undermine its national welfare.
Posted by: HH | Mar 19 2024 13:40 utc | 43
unimperator @33
What's Armenian for "shooting yourself in the foot"?
Posted by: AJ | Mar 19 2024 13:40 utc | 44
Ukraine has twice as many women aged 80 years and over, than men between the ages of 20 and 25. Maybe they could go first?
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 19 2024 13:41 utc | 45
Posted by: aniteleya | Mar 19 2024 10:38 utc | 6
Well stated
Posted by: Chris N | Mar 19 2024 13:47 utc | 46
Can one explain to me how it is possible to have a male surplus in the ages of 18-25 ???
Posted by: Tommy
The females of that age cohort are scattered throughout the EU, enticing older men to marry them, or at least take them in as mistresses. You can find these plump-lipped sirens in most major cities and can be identified by their entitled attitudes.
The western position is steadily deteriorating, the western elites are just jumping around the baseline curve of their own position which is sloping down.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 13:36 utc | 41
Yeah. I think of it as "rope-a-dope", as in: "the Russians are rope-a-doping the West". The west throws in everything trying to "weaken" Russia, and Russia just blows it all up, waiting for the west to collapse like a rabid dog when it runs out of stuff to get blown up.
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 19 2024 13:50 utc | 48
Azerbaijan issued ultimatum to Armenia. Unless Armenia hand over some border villages, Azerbaijan will attack Armenia.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 13:17 utc | 33
Stoltenberg arrived in Jerevan for consultations. Soon he will arrive in Georgia. Something is brewing
Posted by: SlowSoft | Mar 19 2024 13:14 utc | 32
I read that the villages were given, as requested. Now Armenia has disabled Mir payments (tass.com/economy/1762005). It looks like Armenia is splitting the country as fast as possible to get into nato without territorial disputes. If not nato, then France can move troops there, Armenia looks like a French colony already, it's a much older project. Georgia is a high interest for nato. I read some news I wasn't interested to verify if true, that Abkhazia, where Russia is allegedly trying to build a naval base to escape from Crimea strikes they can't prevent, has refused Russian soldiers. Without soldiers I don't think there can be any naval base either. Could be fake news though, or it may change in the future, depending on how much money they milk from Russia.
Posted by: rk | Mar 19 2024 13:55 utc | 49
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 19 2024 11:42 utc | 22
You are so right. Little Miss Lindsey is a tortured soul. A sad closet case who apparently gets off by getting people killed.
Posted by: KMRIA | Mar 19 2024 14:03 utc | 50
Lindsay never ceases to amaze me.
I would think it would be a delicate matter to suggest sending younger people to die.
And I am sure that guy is in church every Sunday.
I seriously expect lightening to strike that guy down when he is at the peak of his shrill proclamations.
He is a study in mental illness.
It is transparently about serving western interests - which is an option, but not when it includes sacrificing young men.
I would think that young people subject to conscription at 27 should avoid having children.
Posted by: jared | Mar 19 2024 14:13 utc | 51
As long as Zelensky stays in power, and Syrsky continues to take orders from him and send more soldiers into the meat-grinder, Ukraine will continue to commit slow suicide.
I can’t help but continue to believe that Z is a Russian plant and has been giving an Oscar-worthy performance as Supreme Commander, all while effecting every policy and strategy that plays to Russian strengths and to the idiotic self-destruction of the West. While I’d also have to observe that the neocon-corporatist imperialists somehow keep finding the resources to infect and destabilize whole new areas of negative-sum aggression.
Don’t those vampire squids fear at all for their own safety, in the brave new world of Sarmat and Poseidon?
Posted by: JTMcPhee | Mar 19 2024 14:15 utc | 52
@47 Milton
that chart is out of date anyway. there hasn't been a census in a long time, and the data that existed was based on a decade worth of birth/death rates (which at least were accurately reported prewar) and guesstimates about emigration.
Posted by: pxx | Mar 19 2024 14:21 utc | 53
How many Frenchmen can Macron spare to make up for what Ukraine demographics fall short?
Bonus question: how many french body bags will it take before Macrons citizens pull the guillotine out of the basement to explain to their leader what they think about sacrificing the lives of their sons and daughters for Selensky's reelection campaign?
Posted by: Marvin | Mar 19 2024 14:22 utc | 54
How many Frenchmen can Macron spare to make up for what Ukraine demographics fall short?
Posted by: Marvin | Mar 19 2024 14:22 utc | 54
Today? 2000.
"France is preparing a contingent for deployment to Ukraine, initially comprising about 2,000 soldiers, stated the Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Naryshkin."
But technically he can bring much more from France and he can intentionally attack from Romania and Moldova, where there are already French soldiers and bases, which will trigger a chain of events providing a few hundred thousand more losers by means of martial law.
Posted by: rk | Mar 19 2024 14:26 utc | 55
The current leadership of the country (France) does not care about the deaths of ordinary French people or about the concerns of the generals. According to information coming to the Russian SVR, a contingent to be sent to Ukraine is already being prepared. Initially, it will include around 2,000 troops. According to the Russian foreign intelligence chief, the French military "fears that such a large military unit cannot be transferred and stationed in Ukraine unnoticed. It will thus become a legitimate priority target for attacks by the Russian armed forces. This means that it will suffer the fate of all the French who have ever come to the Russian world with a sword"
Posted by: AI | Mar 19 2024 14:27 utc | 56
For those who don't know, Ms. Lindsey is a chicken hawk, someone who evaded military service but is always happy to send other people to die to improve their bottom line. The Rethuglican Party "leadership" is full of them.
Posted by: Brian Bixby | Mar 19 2024 14:34 utc | 57
this Ukie was wounded but refused to surrender so he was droned to death.
https://i.imgur.com/VRLwWkq.jpeg
Posted by: Surferket | Mar 19 2024 14:39 utc | 58
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 19 2024 13:22 utc | 35
"The powers of the President of Ukraine expire on the night of May 20-21, 2024 and cannot be extended, while those of the Verkhovna Rada can. After May 20, the Rada will be legitimate, but the president will be not," a member of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) Alexander Dubinsky wrote in his Telegram channel.
Posted by: AI | Mar 19 2024 14:46 utc | 60
There are several things to keep in mind on this matter. First we need to understand that people live primarily for "meaning" in most societies as anyone can see from the history of modern warfare. Ukrainians will fight and die for Ukraine not for victory but because their sense of meaning in their lives is that they are Ukrainian nationalists with all the mythology and propaganda backing that notion so you can send recruits trained or not to the frontlines to die willingly like the Japanese kamikaze pilots did in WWII.
Second, in the same way the neocons and ruling class types in Washington also will keep the war going for decades if necessary because it meets the needs of that class. How can that change? If an operative of the Deep State were to dissent even at a senior level they will find themselves out of the ruling class as happened to many people during the Iraq War who were purged like Chris Hedges and Donahue as well as others who had to resign or as was most common and perennial had to "stifle" themselves. Washington hates dissidents and will make them pay one way or the other. We have to remember the USA is NOT a Constitutional "democracy" anymore (nor will it ever return to that state in the foreseeable future) -- we have to understand that those of us who are dissidents (and know something about history and political science) know this is an oligarchy and the Capitol of a powerful and ruthless Empire. This war (and all wars) benefits the power of the ruling class--look at the Europeans falling all over themselves to please the virtual Emperor in Washington (the us "state" is ruled not by a POTUS but by a network of dukes (billionaires and heads of various crime families).
Third, Russia is unlikely to negotiate with the Empire because they know that the Empire will never keep its agreements--it only recognizes the use of physical force. The Empire will never negotiate either because its goal in this process it to force a sharp dividing line between the Empire and the rest of the world. Even if Ukraine is completely destroyed and the remaining population is scattered to the winds, it has won this war. It has forced Europe and parts of Asia to be subject to dictats from Washington by creating a regime (the EU/NATO) that can control opinion in that world--all media in Europe is clearly controlled by its CIA etc. handlers just as the US media is controlled by the intel community (which means all the "national security" agencies in government and beyond).
If Trump wins the election he will find out, like last time, that he is not and cannot ever be "in charge." As someone above posted the Russians can only play a kind of "rope-a-dope" strategy until the Empire either just "forgets" Ukraine or declares victory. Russia will be forever out of Europe and will be the source of all global ills for as far as the eye can see and I see no evidence that any serious political force in the Empire will arise if it should the security services will see they go back down--I saw this in the anti-war movement during Vietnam--they (the FBI/CIA) crushed us and are even more powerful now. Our only alternative is to change the culture through spirituality and love.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Mar 19 2024 14:54 utc | 61
I recall a theory way back when that the Soviets would target southern and mid-western US cities to change the demographics of the country to peace-loving liberals...
It makes me wonder if the west's strategy is to eliminate all the older Ukrainians who have some knowledge of life in the USSR, and preserve a mass of angry youth who suffered the least in this war, but are going to have to deal with indignities of Russian occupation. What better pool useful idiots? Of suicide bombers? Of easily swayed voters for the time when elections are brought back?
Posted by: Honzo | Mar 19 2024 14:55 utc | 62
Posted by: AI | Mar 19 2024 14:46 utc | 60
Thanks. So basically Z-man is down to two months.
What will the hidebound stooges in DC, London, and Paris do without their Z-boy? His boots tasted so good on their tongues.
They’ll have to create a new Z-man … is a candidate being groomed back in Langley?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 19 2024 14:56 utc | 63
Our only alternative is to change the culture through spirituality and love.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Mar 19 2024 14:54 utc | 61
Yeah, that worked in the sixties...
I agree to the extent that 'spirituality and love' means changing the culture from the ground up, but that's not easy to do with the corporate monopoly on cultural expression- music and film, especially, since nobody reads anymore. I recommend to anyone serious about this to get their hands on an old printing press or a mimeograph machine and to start your own little propaganda operation. It's hard to get 'views' that way, but it's even harder to completely suppress.
Posted by: Honzo | Mar 19 2024 15:00 utc | 64
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Mar 19 2024 10:33 utc | 3
If they can only find a way to get rid of all the military cemeteries taking up the space ...
Lindsey Graham could suggest the Ukrainians use biodegradable burial pods so the fallen can fulfill their Blut und Boden mission as they fertilize their land's famous black soil.
Posted by: lex talionis | Mar 19 2024 15:01 utc | 65
I agree that there are many excellent posts today. I thought I would add that I left Paris at midday with the city city under lock and key, battened down by Macron's riot police. I saw alot of people with labor union flags but the rumor is the government has welched on its agreement with the farmers who will shut the country down again. And yet, Maréchal Macron insists on deployment of troops to Ukraine. Interestingly, in the town where I live there is a paper pasted onto columns and walls showing a young French fellow of about 22 who has "gone missing" I think we're going to start seeing more of these and I have a macabre forboding that they will not tell the families of their loved ones are no more. France like other countries in the West is paying and will pay a high price for its fun loving belief in its' silly propaganda
Posted by: Stierlitz | Mar 19 2024 15:09 utc | 66
Posted by: Boo @ No. 14
'The truth is that only boys (men) are sent to fight wars, especially during draft/conscription.' And Boo goes on to complain that 'feminists' should insist that women share fighting chores equally.
There is an evolutionary reason among humans for males to do the fighting and women to remain 'protected.' The human reproductive cycle is long: once fertilized, the egg requires nine months in utero to be viable, then an additional one to two years nursing. So, one female can produce a healthy baby every two years. Even then, the puny baby human needs care and training for at least a dozen years before it can be a 'fighting unit.'
Human reproduction requires the male to be present only for a few minutes at the beginning of the cycle. A night away from the fighting front Is sufficient. And, one male can do a lot of the work. Maybe a couple if you want to ensure some genetic diversity.
So, if a war-like human society wants to ensure its continued existence, it must keep enough women alive for enough years to ensure a continuing supply of cannon fodder.
Posted by: Eclair | Mar 19 2024 15:12 utc | 67
What better pool useful idiots?
Posted by: Honzo | Mar 19 2024 14:55 utc | 62
Those millions of ukro refugees who are now basically prisoners in "West", but they don't know it yet. Some are normal, those will be kept as free/cheap workers. But most will eventually be sent back to fight, their children taken Barnevernet-style (humanium.org/en/unraveling-norways-barnevernet-examining-childrens-best-interests), "you don't want something bad to happen to your mommy, do you? now put this bag under that car".
Posted by: rk | Mar 19 2024 15:14 utc | 68
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 19 2024 14:56 utc | 63
No replacement found yet.
Posted by: AI | Mar 19 2024 15:16 utc | 69
I found out this interesting bit of information about Lindsey the ghoul Graham on ZH.
He isn't quite a full-fledged chickenhawk: He served 33 years as an Air Force and USAF Reserve officer -- but as a lawyer. His mobilization for the first Gulf War saw him dispatched not across the world but to a National Guard base in his home state of South Carolina where he churned out wills for service members deploying to the war zone.
Posted by: lex talionis | Mar 19 2024 15:17 utc | 70
“Can one explain to me how it is possible to have a male surplus in the ages of 18-25 ???
Posted by: Tommy | Mar 19 2024 11:14 utc | 15”
1. Make it illegal for men to leave.
2. Women get the hell out of Dodge.
3. Do the math.
Posted by: Dalit | Mar 19 2024 15:21 utc | 71
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin said. "Sooner or later, Macron will have to reveal the ugly truth, but he will try to delay the ‘confessions’ as long as possible. As they say in the Elysee Palace, the number of French killed ‘has already crossed a psychologically significant threshold.’ The disclosure of such sensitive data could provoke citizens to protest, especially against the background of farmers' massive anti-government campaigns across the country," Naryshkin noted.
According to the intelligence head, the French Army is "visibly concerned" over the growing number of French citizens killed in Ukraine. "It has been registered that ‘dozens of French citizens’ were killed when Russian forces destroyed a temporary deployment facility for foreigners near Kharkov on 17 January alone. Since then, ‘such attacks have become the norm in the Ukrainian conflict.’ As the French Ministry of Defense unofficially admits, the country has not suffered similar losses abroad since the Algerian war in the second half of the 20th century," Naryshkin underscored.
"The military leadership is also concerned about the discontent among active middle-ranking officers in the French army. They are ‘disproportionately numerous’ among the dead and already at the present stage there are problems with finding ‘volunteers’ to rotate and ‘replace the casualties’ in the Ukrainian theatre," he said.
Posted by: AI | Mar 19 2024 15:22 utc | 72
Bemildred | Mar 19 2024 13:22 utc | 34--
Putin's not the only one working hard. The list of tasks spelled out in his Address to the Federal Assembly not quite 3 weeks ago has created a large mass of work for government ministers as his meeting with them prior to the election shows, "Implementing the Federal Address". Russia's GDP is growing at a rate of 5% and the inflation bug is solved for the time being as it's at 0% for the first several weeks in March. That translates into their being plenty of resources available for all the infrastructure work and other projects being planned or already in operation. And the SMO grinds on. Currently, politically within Russia there's no opposition; all parties are in favor of the plans that were put forth. And last night, all the candidates were on the stage in Red Square celebrating the 10th anniversary of Crimea's return to her port. Yes, the square was filled on a chilly night. Neither Ukraine nor NATO, nor the wannabes Moldova and Armenia have the public elan Russia has, and it's very doubtful their treasonous leaders will survive to become the next Ukraine.
For those who don't know, Ms. Lindsey is a chicken hawk, someone who evaded military service but is always happy to send other people to die to improve their bottom line. The Rethuglican Party "leadership" is full of them.
Posted by: Brian Bixby | Mar 19 2024 14:34 utc | 57
Right. Oh, those "Rethugs", but it seems the war on Russia in Ukraine was spearheaded by the nice virtuous Dems. Both parties are crap, but to focus on the party out of power, with a substantial opposition to more Ukie funding is suspicious to me.
This seems like a variant of the attack on some tiny freaky sect of Christians in the US (which I have never seen or heard in person) for the genocide carried out by the Zionazis and supported by the US RC.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Mar 19 2024 15:38 utc | 74
Putin's problem is that he is a rational person in an irrational world.
It was highly rational for Ukraine to accept the peace plan in 2022. But Ukraine, their society, is lead with only one goal: to please its western masters and gain sympathy from the west (devil). No matter how many would die because of that.
It was also highly rational to accept Russia as it was, specially for EU. It brought only profit from trade and cheap gas (for Germany). But Germany, EU, and USA are extremely irrational players. That is something Putin is slowly learning.
I disagree. The West is not irrational.
Russia's move in the Ukraine represents the gravest challenge to the Empire. It is an open act of defiance against the rules-based world order, which is just a nice way of saying "US hegemony over the rest of the world".
So, it is rational, from my point of the view, that the collective West (US + appendages) is doing everything to counter Russia. It's a question of precedent. The US simply cannot allow Russia to get off with this, unless it wants other countries to follow suit. What is at stake is the preeminence of the US in the world, including for instance the dollar reserve status.
If the US accepts to be downgraded, it won't collapse, but its relative economic advantage won't be as high, which could translate into hundreds of billions of dollars and a noticeable decline in standards of living.
So I do think they are completely rational in trying their utmost to weaken Russia. Russia is, I would say, half-rational : they have taken the correct course against NATO in Ukraine, but do it half-heartedly and are steadily losing track of the strategic goal by being afraid of escalation.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 19 2024 15:46 utc | 75
Zizek losing his mind over Russia, did someone spike his coffee? What a complete charlatan.{
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1769801014356451544
Posted by: Roger | Mar 19 2024 5:30 utc | 161
Zizek has always been a low-intellect tool. He used to be more circumspect about his ramblings, I suppose he is on the payroll these days.
Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 19 2024 15:31 utc | 73
Thank you for your comment. I have been watching Putin a bit over 20 years now, it is obvious as can be that he has a stable team around him, self-assembled I assume. He is loyal to his people and they are loyal to him, and he doesn't defenestrate anybody just for being wrong about something, he rewards loyalty, industry, and obedience when a decision is made. Only disloyalty, laziness or abject incompetence gets you defenestrated, and even then he will still acknowlege the good you have done, e.g. Prigozhin. How could it be any other way, given the results? We all learn as we go along. There is no substitute for experience.
In other words, Putin is a leader, not a boss.
Such a team, once assembled, is not to be casually thrown away. And that is why term limits are a stupid idea, intended more to hamsting the government rather than to make it work better. What is needed for good government is accountability of the government to the governed, prompt and reliable accountability, most of all for dishonesty and failure to do their job, failure to understand that it is a job.
One can contrast this with US politics, which is a dog-and-pony show performed on top of a cesspool of personal ambition and greed. Everybody wants to be the boss, blathering on all the time about "leadership".
Hereditary elites will always make a mess of things.
And thanks again for all your work.
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 19 2024 15:59 utc | 76
So, if a war-like human society wants to ensure its continued existence, it must keep enough women alive for enough years to ensure a continuing supply of cannon fodder.Posted by: Eclair | Mar 19 2024 15:12 utc | 67
Apparently someone forgot to deliver the memo for, well, whoever actually represents Ukrainian interests today. Zelensky? The nazis? I find it hard to see who is actually representing Ukrainian interests these days.
Nevertheless, most of the 18 - 40 year old women are already scattered throughout the west, mostly EU. And there seems to be no limits in drafting those who remain in Ukraine. The best hope is as many simply surrender so they can be part of rebuilding Ukraine (non-western controlled).
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 16:03 utc | 77
That demographic diagram is basically extrapolating old data, as Ukraine has not held a proper census for many, many years. The population is at best 20 million, with that reduction (from 40 million) overwhelmingly from the younger generations. How many 18-25 year olds are even still in the country given that they are the most free to travel (no assets, children etc. holding them back), and flocked abroad in huge numbers even prior to the SMO? They are also the most physically capable of trying to hike their way out of the country.
The Ukrainian army is now faced with losses significantly outnumbering additions, a decline in numbers, while at the same time the additions are at the level of ill-trained cannon-fodder. A smaller, less effective force. At the same time they are throwing their best men to delay the Russian advances, and in stupid publicity stunts in Krynki and at the Russian border, but do still have strongholds such as Krasnohorivka that favour the defenders - even badly trained ones. The surrender of a full platoon of Ukie soldiers at Heorhivka (west of Marinka) is interesting, as they had only just arrived at the front having been bombed and shelled en route and found the group that they were supposed to be replacing already gone. Perhaps a start of a trend with new troops committed to the front line, especially if they are full of people forcibly conscripted.
Soldiers Of The 59th Brigade Surrender En Masse
Russia is being extremely careful with its loss levels while it continues to grind down the Ukrainians, hence the slow pace of advances. With Orlovka and Tornenke now taken, things will start to move again in the Avdiivka area.
re: AI @ 56
Do you have a link for the information coming from the Russian SVR that France is preparing a force of 2000 troops to be sent to Ukraine? thanks
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 19 2024 16:09 utc | 79
The US simply cannot allow Russia to get off with this, unless it wants other countries to follow suit. What is at stake is the preeminence of the US in the world, including for instance the dollar reserve status. So I do think they are completely rational in trying their utmost to weaken Russia.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 19 2024 15:46 utc | 75
That can't be it. Russia only reacted to sanctions and nato expansion (and badly, not prepared, the smo also not prepared), but none was initiated by them. The end was when nato, using Ukr, started to kill everyone in Donbass. It would have been 100% Gaza, they still try where they can, hits on ZNPP have resumed on large scale.
It's all designed by US. You can say they are so stupid that their plan worked, but exactly the opposite way. So the more they try, the worse it gets. It's not "rational" and it's not based on economy. They want to kill as many as possible, nothing else. But even so, in the end Russia still has more nukes than the world combined, and some of which the world doesn't have yet. How many could be broken and not fly? Who cares? a single Satan 2 can erase all France. I'm sorry to say it, many people are dead now and more will die, but this story as a movie or book is just pure comedy. Remember Gonzalo's sort of crazy laugh? Like that
Posted by: rk | Mar 19 2024 16:11 utc | 80
ECB pressuring banks to leave Russia
CERN to cut ties with 500 Russia-linked specialists – RIA
Ukraine wants Australia to censor ‘pro-Putin’ documentary
and other such things in the past few weeks months regarding athletes, artists, culture etcpp.
it is clear as day that the "west" is keen on cutting ANY and ALL ties with russia. for one to make war easier. no ties with the enemy makes war a lot easier and less "bad".
but then theres the other thing.
with all those sanctions and edicts against anything russian, how will this translate to the post-war situation?
if russia wins, then they (west) will insist on keeping the new iron courtain, or die neue mauer, up. sore losers.
if russia loses... well, it will be balkanized, so no russia, all those sanctions etc will evaporate into air and you know the drill.
my question is what about all those "russlanddeutsche" etc in other countries?
will the eu go full nazi and do to them what they did with the juden? we are already seeing the erasure of russian culture in the west, so all those people will be threated like second class or worse, just look at the baltics and how they treat them.
and if those people refuse to be treated as such, will the eu start with deportations? or will it be slightly more underhanded, like they started this clownshow with the "numberplates on cars" issue, slowly taking everything away from those evil russians that live in the eu? first the car, next the house, then the bankaccount? you know, for sending money to your mother or something? until those people leave "on their own"?
and how will the western citizen take this? will they keep staying mum just as they stayed mum back then while the nazis did their thing?
is this where we are heading? for me it looks like we are.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 19 2024 16:12 utc | 81
Vershinin predicted in 2022 (see "The Return of Industrial Warfare" ) that the loss of the industrial base in the US and NATO meant that the West could not match the Russian output of weapons and munitions -- that a conventional war in Ukraine would be lost by the US and NATO.
Of course, this assertion went completely against the official Western narratives, which have served as propaganda masquerading as "news" during the last two years. Hence, we arrive at the present day with most of the Western public -- and the Western political elite -- still believing the mantras that "Russia is weak, Russia has lost 50% of its army, Russia is running out of munitions, Ukraine can win the war".
It seems that even the best psyops and false narratives cannot change the facts on the battlefield. Much to the chagrin of the neocons and neolibs, Russia is clearly winning the war in Ukraine, while the Russian economy booms and the evil dictator Putin is re-elected by an overwhelming majority (by the 70% of Russians who voted in the Russian presidential elections).
The preponderance of lies and corruption in the West have convinced the delusional ruling classes that facts don't matter as long as you control the narrative and have the police/security agencies to back you up. While such methods can be used to maintain control within the realms of a national security police state, they certainly won't work when fighting a war against a determined extra-national enemy armed with massive conventional and nuclear forces. All the lies in the world will not change the fact that the war in Ukraine is lost.
Thus, there is panic in Europe, where the European emperors are desperate to prevent the populace from seeing that they sit naked on their thrones in Brussels, London, Paris, and Berlin. In the US, the Biden regime also faces the danger of losing the upcoming presidential election -- what risks will it be willing to take to forestall defeat in Ukraine, at least until the elections are over?
Assuming we get past the coming defeat in Ukraine without winding up in a war with Russia, will the West continue down the same path of confrontation and war? The facts that Vershinin lays out in "The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine" will be used by the US War party and EU militarists to push for the complete conversion to war economies -- this must be done to defeat the evil Russians. All this while civil society in these nations is coming apart at the seams, with crumbling national infrastructure, huge immigrant populations, and an angry populace that is on the verge of massive civil disobedience.
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 19 2024 16:15 utc | 82
France is preparing to send a contingent of 2,000 military personnel to Ukraine, according to Russia's Director of Foreign Intelligence - TASS
Also stated was that foreign troops would be a high priority. Which means Mr kinzhal has an appointment waiting for them. Obama visit to London was no coincidence, the next phase of ww3 has gone beyond the talking points
Posted by: Hankster | Mar 19 2024 16:17 utc | 83
It would seem NATO is prepared to defend the EU states that border the Ukraine, I highly doubt they will enter 404 as a group.
Some countries, France, may choose to act unilaterally. Russia tapped another foreign Merc facility in Odessa last night, much mayhem. Can't imagine what the French are thinking.....drinking canal piss maybe.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 19 2024 16:20 utc | 84
@ rk | Mar 19 2024 13:55 utc | 49
You write absolute crap. Anyone with even an ounce of geographical knowledge can see that your propaganda is ridiculous. A naval base on the Caspian Sea is utterly pointless, particularly as a substitute for one on the Black Sea.
Why do you type that kind of worthless dribble? Who do you think your audience is?
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Mar 19 2024 16:20 utc | 85
Edward Luttwack was a Major in the IDF and a fanatically extremist Likudnik. So……he’s all
about Ukrainian Slavs dieing.
Signed - someone who studied under Luttwack for 3 years in the late 1970s. :)
Posted by: Exile | Mar 19 2024 16:24 utc | 86
@Posted by: Figleaf23 | Mar 19 2024 16:20 utc | 85
Caspian Sea? that is another sea. This is absolutely hilarious. Please write again, as often as possible, don't ever leave this site
Posted by: rk | Mar 19 2024 16:30 utc | 87
he females of that age cohort are scattered throughout the EU, enticing older men to marry them, or at least take them in as mistresses. You can find these plump-lipped sirens in most major cities and can be identified by their entitled attitudes.
Posted by: Milton | Mar 19 2024 13:48 utc | 47
I just had a flash of Victoria Nuland and Chrystia Flealand. Ugh ... recovering now
Posted by: Angelo | Mar 19 2024 16:33 utc | 88
Ukrainian formations continue massive shelling of the Belgorod region. In Razumny, four people were injured, including a 14-year-old teenager whose arm was partially torn off. Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced the evacuation of 9 thousand children to other regions.At the same time, Russian UAV crews often detect the location of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ rocket artillery, but the MLRS manage to leave the position. The reason is organizational issues that prevent the timely delivery of fire damage to uncovered priority targets.
The issue of eliminating them is now extremely urgent: this will not only significantly increase the effectiveness of counter-battery warfare, but will reduce the intensity of enemy attacks on Belgorod and other populated areas.
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 19 2024 16:33 utc | 89
@ Justpassinby | Mar 19 2024 16:12 utc | 81
and how will the western citizen take this? will they keep staying mum just as they stayed mum back then while the nazis did their thing?Yes, that was the idea with the "covid" thing. Teach them a lesson, make them obedient.
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 19 2024 16:34 utc | 90
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 19 2024 16:09 utc | 79
Statement in Russia from SVR Director Sergey Naryshkin's mouth.
Posted by: AI | Mar 19 2024 16:36 utc | 91
Posted by: Eclair | Mar 19 2024 15:12 utc | 67
Realizing the risk of derailing the thread, will try to be concise.
That's precisely the traditional view that you're espousing: that men and women are different, men are disposable and the women/children/etc. should be preserved at the expense of men. The modern view is that women and men are the "same" and interchangeable, modern feminists insists on equality of outcome, and yet we don't see a lot of them volunteering for the front for some reason. As I said, Shredinger feminism: a woman is simultaneously a victim and empowered, until something happens then she chooses which state benefits her the most. The ukranian women voted with their feet (and other parts of their bodies).
Posted by: Boo | Mar 19 2024 16:36 utc | 92
Anonymous - Comment 9
So your observation is that the Russian advance is slow. Aside from the type of warfare against Ukraine and NATO (iin part) that calls for smaller, highly mobile groups, rather than larger arrow offensives, consider the massive loss of Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield, and the destruction of munnitions, heavy guns, air defenses, drone operations, logistics/ supply hubs. And most importantly, the destruction of belief in victory, and in will to fight.
Posted by: Áobh Ó'Sheachnasaigh | Mar 19 2024 16:38 utc | 93
Assuming we get past the coming defeat in Ukraine without winding up in a war with Russia, will the West continue down the same path of confrontation and war? The facts that Vershinin lays out in "The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine" will be used by the US War party and EU militarists to push for the complete conversion to war economies -- this must be done to defeat the evil Russians. All this while civil society in these nations is coming apart at the seams, with crumbling national infrastructure, huge immigrant populations, and an angry populace that is on the verge of massive civil disobedience.
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 19 2024 16:15 utc | 82
Thank you for your comment, well said.
They can babble all they want about a "war economy", it's not going to happen any quicker than it took to throw what we once had away, and that took more than 30 years, any way you figure it. The "outsourcing" was observably happening already in the 70s and was not really finished until Clinton got done with it in 2000, we were still making some quality stuff in the 90s. That was just in time for Bush-Cheney to pretend to global omnipotence. The re-creation of the industrial working class and the regulatory structures to govern it will take a generation or two as well, and NONE of that is going to happen while the political system runs on big money, impunity, egotism, and lies.
As I said above, it it going to require work, lots of work.
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 19 2024 16:40 utc | 94
@70
That makes Ms Graham a REMF, maybe half a step above a chickenhawk.
Posted by: Fred777 | Mar 19 2024 16:50 utc | 95
The West is not rational.
It had no essential need to coerce Russia from 2000. until now.
The West gains more from good relations with Russia.
It is like having good relations with a neighbor, but then you decide to kill him and take his property. It is not rational. This is how psychopaths contemplate.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 19 2024 16:50 utc | 96
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Mar 19 2024 16:20 utc | 85
The Constanza base was discussed earlier too. It's possible Nato sees the 'future line' (i.e. see high chance they won't get Odessa) and hence are reinforcing the narrative on 'iron curtain' by building more 'permanent' bases on the future iron curtain border.
An alternative is the base is being built in anticipation of supporting Nato future occupation in SW Ukraine. The bases is also important to maintain internal control in Romania, and prevent any ideas of trading or having diplomatic relations with Russia.
In a war scenario. If Russia controls SW Ukraine and maintains connection to Transnistria. In that case the Romania base is pretty much irrelevant. What will Nato do with such a base? Fly recon on the border? Perhaps. But Russia has their buffer for Crimea, they are able to overmatch any Nato fleet in the Black Sea due to vast technological advantage of weaponry. Comparing it is like comparing the age of musket men vs. age of machine gunners.
So the base is relatively useless to support a Nato fleet.
Airbase then? Perhaps. But again, if things stabilize then Russia maintains edge of fighter and air defense weaponry, reaching deep into Romania itself, and able to control any Nato aircraft on the border.
The most likely conclusion is the base set to be a narrative for an iron curtain. Of course, some clowns in Washington may actually think it has real military value where it might not.
If Ukraine 'disappears' as seems likely, the house of card of the empire in eastern and southern Europe could collapse.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 16:52 utc | 97
This line jumped out as self-evident truth:
"Any conflict between great powers would be viewed by adversary elites as existential and pursued with the full resources available to the state".
In so much as we observe in DC, a cadre of neocolinicons [aka neocon&econs] clinging to this war in Ukrainia because they have "hung their political hats" on this to be the "culmination" of their "brilliant" 30 year campaign to remake the USA into a remake of the failed English empire.
Posted by: S Brennan | Mar 19 2024 16:55 utc | 98
Posted by: Bemildred | Mar 19 2024 16:40 utc | 94
It will take at least a generation to reverse liberal ideologies and install competent leaders.
Until that happens, little will change in economic or industrial policies in the EU. Martyanov also said it is impossible to set up real industrialism without energy and raw materials, especially when trade connections to China about to choke, and the Euro currency is in serious peril in terms of utility outside the west.
It is up to the US, but US is overrated in everything, especially in the decade long propagandization of the western population. A lot of them really seriously think US is a powerhouse of 1945, arsenal of democracy just around the corner etc.
Just look at the delay of the next generation SSN X attack sub pushed into 2030s, the shell production debacle and need of $100 billion more funding, F-35, Boeing and the collapse through DEI, etc. Plus all the mythical weapon system reputations blown out of the water in Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 16:56 utc | 99
Did they forget the women who supposedly have the same rights and obligations as citizens? Are the Ukrainian leaders worry about having to send their daughters or wife to the front ?
Posted by: Virgile | Mar 19 2024 17:02 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
When are the Ukrainians going to realise that the western world leaders couldn't care less about them.
Their families.
Or country?
Just collateral damage.
Thank you for your service and onto the next proxy.
Posted by: jpc | Mar 19 2024 10:20 utc | 1