Stephen Bryan continues with his valuable summaries of the situation in Ukraine:
A number of counterattacks by the Ukrainians, in some cases using reserve forces, have taken place along the line of contact. While reports are not yet complete, it appears that all the Ukrainian attempts to roll back Russian gains have failed, with the possible exception of Robotyne.
Meanwhile the Russians have either taken or will soon take a number of villages including Ivaniska, Bilohorivka, Berdichev, Pobjeda and Novomikhailovka.
Since February 28, the Russians have destroyed three Abrams tanks. The most recent was knocked out on March 4 by an anti-tank missile, probably a Russian Kornet. The first two Abramses were hit by low-cost Russian drones carrying RPG-7 warheads.
The Russian forces continue with their slow grind all over the front. Ukrainian losses have been increasing. Over the last two weeks the reported daily number of killed and wounded more often exceeded 1,000 than not.
The slow grind, and no big arrow movements, is a carefully calculated way of operation. As one observer remarked:
The longer this [slow grind] goes on the greater the chances of the Euros doing something stupid. Or your neocons. We’re already directly responsible for the shelling of a nuclear power station and it was only Shoigu phoning around the Foreign Ministers that put paid to the Ukrainians fooling around with dirty bombs.
So it’s a balance. The Russians move too fast and there’s a danger they’ll set the psychos in Washington and Berlin/Brussels/Westminster off. Too slow and it gives the psychos more scope for such tricks. All one can do is hope the Russians get the balance right.
Today's report by the Russian Ministry of Defense mentioned an unusual aerial target:
Over the past 24 hours, air defence units shot down nine U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles and one French-made AASM Hammer guided aerial bomb.
This is the first time that an AASM Hammer bomb were mentioned in these reports. These are rocket assisted glide bombs in the 250 kilogram class with a reach of more than 70 kilometer beyond the drop off point. France had promised to deliver 50 of these per month. There have been no reports I know of that Ukrainian Soviet era air force jets have been adapted to release these bombs. But the other potential carriers are well known:
The current main AASM operator is Rafale, there were also trial launches performed by the F-16, Mirage 2000, and the Mirage F1 which was additionally equipped with Hasas (Hammer Stand Alone System). Also, India used to buy these bombs in 2020 to integrate with Tejas.
The shot down by Russian air defenses of an AASM Hammer may well mean that the long announced F-16 jets are now up in the Ukrainian air. If that is the case it will not be long before the Russian air forces will report the first F-16 as casualty.
Those few French bombs will not help. Russia can lob hundreds of its own bombs per day from the many platforms it uses. Ukraine is restricted by the small number of delivery vehicles it has as well as their exposure to counterattacks.
Down on the ground, the only place that counts, the Ukrainian lines are weakening by the day. As Bryen remarks:
Ukraine counterattacked the Russians rather than falling back to new defense lines for the simple reason that there were no pre-prepared fortifications for their army even though they were supposed to have been built. This has created a significant controversy and there are hints that the money for the materials needed for the fortifications was siphoned off (stolen). Corruption in Ukraine is rampant and despite some efforts to curtail it, it is growing.
As Ukraine’s situation deteriorates, get-rich-quick and exit schemes are growing.
A recent CNN report also emphasizes the issue. New defense lines get budgets and are announced. But months later the soldiers notice that that those lines are just marks on a map and that no stone has been moved to create them.
It should by now be obvious to anyone that Ukraine has lost the war and that Russia is winning the contest. The recent panic actions by various European leaders are pointing to that conclusion.
Saner heads are acknowledging the facts and are calling for talks:
How to Pave the Way for Diplomacy to End the War in Ukraine – Charap, Shapiro / Foreign Affairs, Mar 5 2024
The challenge of discerning an adversary’s intentions is nearly impossible in the absence of dialogue. Therefore, it is necessary to open channels of communication so as to be in a position to take advantage of the opportunity to pursue peace when that opportunity comes.
…
Yet mutual mistrust between belligerents is a feature of every war, and thus of every negotiation that ended those wars. If trust were a prerequisite for communicating, belligerents would never start talking. The parties can and should begin talking despite their mutual mistrust.
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Getting to the table will not be easy, but the alternative is an endless, grinding war that no side claims to want and both sides lose by continuing to fight.
I can not imagine that the current U.S. administration will go for talks with Moscow. It is already in the middle of an election campaign and any leaks about talks with Moscow would destroy its anti-Russia strategy. As the U.S. is now leaving it to Europe to pay the bill for the misadventure in Ukraine it would surely be helpful if some European negotiators could jump in.
Unfortunately I fail to see any European leader who might be willing or able to do so.