Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 29, 2024

Ukraine SitRep: Syrski's Interview - Mobilizing - De-Energization

General Syrski, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian army has given an interview to a Ukrainian media platform.

His description of the war seems overly optimistic:

The situation at the front is really difficult. However, it cannot be any different at the front. Undoubtedly, every day requires maximum effort from our soldiers and officers. But we not only are on the defensive, but also move forward in different directions every day. Recently, the number of positions we have returned exceeds the number of lost positions. The enemy did not manage to advance significantly in strategic areas, and his territorial gains, if any, are of tactical importance. We are monitoring this situation.

The various people who map the front lines seem to disagree with him.

February 1 2024

bigger
March 29 2024

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More Syrski:

The experience of the past months and weeks shows that the enemy has significantly increased aircraft activity, using KABs - guided air bombs that destroy our positions. In addition, the enemy resorts to dense artillery and mortar fire. Several days ago, the enemy's advantage in terms of ammunition was about six to one.

However, we learned to fight not by the amount of ammunition, but by the skill of using the weapons that we have. In addition, we make the most of the advantages of unmanned aerial vehicles, although the enemy is trying to catch up with us in this effective weapon.

With an artillery advantage of 6 to 1 it does not really matter how good the gunners are. The side with more shots will evidently win. Ukrainian drone supremacy is likewise a very dubious claim.

These numbers though are even worse:

It is clear that these are statistics, but it is important to know that in February-March of this year alone (as of March 26), the enemy lost more than 570 tanks, about 1,430 armored fighting vehicles, almost 1,680 artillery pieces and 64 air defense systems. At the same time, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to keep key heights and defense areas under control. Our goal is to prevent the loss of our territory, exhaust the enemy as much as possible, inflict the greatest losses on him, and form and prepare reserves for offensive operations.

It is also very significant that the enemy's activity in the air was also reduced, of course, thanks to the skills of our air defense units. In just ten days in February, they shot down 13 enemy aircraft, including two strategically important A50 early warning and control aircraft.

Since February 1 2024 the Russian Defense Ministry has claimed the destruction of 202 Ukrainian tanks, 550 Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles and 686 Ukrainian artillery pieces. Syrski claims that the Russian losses are twice to three times that high? I have more than serious doubts that his numbers are right. A commander should not deceive his troops like this.

As for the aircraft only one A-50 has likely come down and two other planes seem to have been confirmed losses. In fact the numbers in February were widely laughed at and the Ukrainian air force has since stopped to issue such claims.

Syrski is asked about the hot potato in current Ukrainian politics:

Q: Earlier reports said that 500,000 more people had to be mobilized to maintain combat capability and ensure the rotation of units and formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front. How realistic is such a figure now?

A: Following the revision of our internal resources and clarification of the combat composition of the Armed Forces, this figure was significantly reduced. We expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland. I am talking not only about the mobilized, but also about volunteer fighters.

No matter how far the number of needed men will get reduced the chance to persuade enough Ukrainians that their service and lives are needed to save the country are near to zero.

Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 15:43 UTC · Mar 28, 2024

This suggests that over 1,000,000 men in Ukraine are on wanted lists of police for draft dodging even before new drastic mobilization law comes into force: "In the Poltava region, about 30,000 people did not show up at the TCC and SP departments. The TCC appealed to the police with an appeal to deliver these people to the military commissariat." And about 40,000 men are on wanted list for the same in Ivano-Frankivsk Region.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/...

The social contract in Ukraine provides that those in power are allowed to loot as long as they do not bother those below them. That is not a society that allows to draft people for aims which are only supported by a minority of the population. Out of six draft notices send out only one gets responded to. The new conscription law that is slowly creeping through parliament procedures will not be able to change that.

Noticeable is that The Economist is blaming Zelenski for this:

But in Ukraine attempts to raise fresh recruits are still stuck in the coils of the democratic process; more than 1,000 amendments have reportedly been tabled to a bill in Parliament that would give the government more scope to raise the army it needs. Short of cash and fearing unpopularity, President Volodymyr Zelensky has not tried hard enough to get his way.

There were in fact over 6,000 amendments to the bill of which some 4,300 have gone through the committee with more to come. It will still take months until that law is enacted. It is likely to have little effect.

The Ukrainian government had announced that in future the country itself would produce the weapons it needs for the war. The Russian response is a new campaign to de-energize those Ukrainian regions with the most industrial facilities:

Ukraine said on Friday it had imposed emergency blackouts on three regions after Russia fired dozens of missiles and drones at its power stations overnight.

Moscow has stepped up its aerial bombardment of Ukraine in recent weeks, targeting energy infrastructure in response to deadly Ukrainian assaults on Russia's border regions.

National grid operator Ukrenergo said its dispatch centre was "forced to apply emergency blackout schedules in the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kirovograd until the evening".

Restrictions were already in place in the major cities of Kharkiv and Kryvyi Rih following a Russian strike last week.

There are only a few air defense systems left in Ukraine. They are needed to cover the front, to protect energy facilities and political centers. Currently they can not do either. Even if the U.S. would resume its support for Ukraine there would not be enough systems available to keep Ukraine covered.

There are rumors of an upcoming big Russian offensive. I don't buy those yet. There is still enough of the Ukrainian army left to continue the slow grinding process that has already eliminated large parts of it.

Posted by b on March 29, 2024 at 15:38 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Thanks for the update b.

Posted by: jo6pac | Mar 29 2024 15:48 utc | 1

"We expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland" Very telling that he uses the word "their", or is it just a wrong translation? This shows that he is fully integrated in the NATO command structure.

Posted by: hubert | Mar 29 2024 15:57 utc | 2

Time for Syrski to have a chat with his close relative in the FSB - for a spot of fact and copy-editing.

What the feck is a Russian doing trying to lead the AFU anyway?

Might be time for poor Syrski to cop himself on and to bring an end to this Slav-on-Slav slaughter which only serves the odious Banderites and Nulandites.

'Nuff said.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 29 2024 15:58 utc | 3

Thanks for the posting b

I was struck by this statement by General Syrski

But we not only are on the defensive, but also move forward in different directions every day.

Is that anything like running in circles screaming and shouting?

What is the percentage of denazification and demilitarization that have already occurred and what is left before enough?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 29 2024 15:59 utc | 4

The slow way is the best way.

The Russians refuse to lose the initiative and become reactive. The Kremlin dictates the tactics and tempo of this conflict as they have since it began.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 29 2024 16:03 utc | 5

The economist is nearly there making the connection

"more than 1000 amendments"
"stuck in the coils of the democratic process"
"short of cash"

mobilization is a business - customer has to pay up

Posted by: pxx | Mar 29 2024 16:04 utc | 6

good wrap-up, b. To believe what officials are saying - especially in war - is naive or dumb, so any information is doubtfull. You have highlighted this above. The Russians may also overestimate their successes, but knowing their superiorty in ammo, mancount etc one may believe their numbers more than the numbers of 404 / west .
The money from US-Gov, EU and Blackrock & Cie were not gifts, but according to a kind of lend/lease contract, which Joe has signed in 2022. Similar to the original form 1941, the ukros has to pay back "after Victory". Of course they have to pledge all assets they have (agriculture, industry, pension funds, shares.. everything. Now, approximately 80% of those deposits are located in the east, now under russian control. And THAT is a real problem. If the war is going down the pipe for 404 OR a peace contract would show up, that money would be lost. Everybody invested in Blackrock would switch to panic mode and there would be a "Blackrock-run" . This would be a real black swan event with the power to bring down the whole US-$ System.
Vicci dumbfuck was eliminated because she told the astonished listeners that there is no plan b. So she is responsible for that desaster of biblical quantity.
Now, the US is desperatly trying to move the EU into a war with russia, hoping to bully them into another lend/lease and secretly put in the debt of 404 to that agreement - US is rescued, EU would go bankrupt. Doesn`t matter. Not realy the wanted outcome but better as going down the pipe completely.

Posted by: ableman | Mar 29 2024 16:05 utc | 7

Irrelevant person: ´Oh. I know I know. Me, me me.´

Knowing person: ´Ok, go ahead. Say what you’re thinking.´

Irrelevant : ´If you just listen to what he says it doesn’t make sense. I mean, they are totally losing the war. Right?´

Knowing : ´ Well, sure. But we understand the psychological necessity called, CYA.´

Irrelevant: ´Yes, Ok. But if you take what he says, and change the word enemy to Ukrainian, it kind of makes sense. The enemy is Russia and Ukrainians who are Russian Orthodox, so that’s the real message here.´

Knowing: ´Ok, if that were true, why would the Ukrainian side fight there own brothers? ++ that really isn’t reasonable since it can’t explain two years of war against the invader.´

Irrelevant : ´ oh. Guess you’re right. Sorry’

Posted by: Nothingburgers | Mar 29 2024 16:11 utc | 8

@hubert | Mar 29 2024 15:57 utc | 2

Sirsky's motherland is Russia.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 29 2024 16:14 utc | 9

thanks b...

it's all messed up.. who whudda thunk it? i guess that is why 404 has to resort to terrorist attacks hey?

so how long can the cia - m16 and friends keep this gong show running? find the answer in a box of cracker jacks...

some music to sooth your soul..

too little, too late, too bad....

Posted by: james | Mar 29 2024 16:16 utc | 10

dang... b doesn't like bandcamp links... look later, lol..

Posted by: james | Mar 29 2024 16:17 utc | 11

Isn't a figure missing in this sentence?
"Out of six draft notices send out only gets responded to."

Posted by: Rolf Nilsson | Mar 29 2024 16:23 utc | 12

It all makes sense when you consider that Syrsky represents the Russian position.

Posted by: CIROC | Mar 29 2024 16:32 utc | 13

So it loos like the attacks on energy generators are motivated by things like

- Make it harder for AFU to wage war with difficult access to energy
- Remove Ukraine's ability to export electricity to EU
- Make domestic weapons production impossible

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 29 2024 16:32 utc | 14

"Syrski claims that the Russian losses are twice to three times that high? I have more than serious doubts that his numbers are right. A commander should not deceive his troops like this."

Maybe a commander shouldn't do that, but here we're talking about Ukraine, home of the Idiotic Hyperbole.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Mar 29 2024 16:44 utc | 15

Recently france committed another 78 Ceasars artillery to ukraine. That alone gives some scale to the losses.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 29 2024 16:46 utc | 16

Posted by: Rolf Nilsson | Mar 29 2024 16:23 utc | 11

you can guess is ONE.

Posted by: AI | Mar 29 2024 16:49 utc | 17

"There are rumors of an upcoming big Russian offensive. I don't buy those yet. There is still enough of the Ukrainian army left to continue the slow grinding process that has already eliminated large parts of it."

Two more months of grind in my view, give or take. After raw recruits and returned wounded, that will reduce the UAF by around 30,000 men - in the combat arms - already I suggest seriously understrength by up to 50%. Of course they can redeply the LOC guys, but what will they fight with? The ground dries towards the end of May. 6:1 artillery probably means 10:1.Plus Russia air superiority. Plus numercial and mobility advantage, as well as training and officers/NCOs. Russian troops are rotated and becoming increasingly seasoned whilst the UAF vets are becoming fewer and more worn. Morale is holding up surprisingly well in the UAF but I wonder for how much longer with few replacements and limited resupply? And now I think, after Moscow, the Russians will be out for blood. But a stepped up RF series of limited attacks now will force the UAF to expend reserves and supplies. They will not have enough come summer (I think) to defend everything.

Also a step up in long-range strikes and after Crocus - the gloves are off. I suspect foreign "volunteers" will also be a favoured target, as well as senior Ukrainian military and intelligence leaders. A few more helicopter accidents involving senior NATO officers is to be expected.

Oh,and watch the price of oil go up. And maybe the odd bridge collision or some such. Possibly futher distractions, eg Horn or Africa, or maybe Korea. Or Taiwan. Or financial crises. Or internet outages.

But at least the "adults are back in charge" in DC. Makes me feel safe.

Posted by: marcjf | Mar 29 2024 16:49 utc | 18

Syrsky is an amazing character, what is it like to be born and study in Russia and end up fighting for NATO, the Nazis and LGBT? I read somewhere that one of his sons is in Australia and supports Russia, but Syrsky does not maintain contact with his parents and family. What's wrong with him?

Posted by: Psycho | Mar 29 2024 16:54 utc | 19

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 29 2024 16:32 utc | 13

################

Ukrainian trains run on electricity. By compromising electrical distribution, Russia is making it more difficult to Ukraine to move troops and materiel around.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 29 2024 17:20 utc | 20

@LoveDonbass | Mar 29 2024 17:20 utc | 19

Excellent point, thank you. I knew this, but somehow forgot to mention it.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 29 2024 17:24 utc | 21

"...The social contract in Ukraine provides that those in power are allowed to loot as long as they do not bother those below them." b

A very good point, and one that explains the curious conscription law in force which only drafts men over the age of, I think it is 27.

Most drafts call on the young-18plus-first, but this one exempted them. In fact the new bill aims at extending the draft to include the very people that would usually have been first in line.
If it is passed, which will be long after Zelenskyy's term has expired, it will require foreign troops to enforce it.

Posted by: bevin | Mar 29 2024 17:26 utc | 22

Syrsky is DELUSIONAL…! And Ukraine’s situation is HOPELESS…!
A decent officer would recognize the reality and recommend peace negotiations OR resign.
Retired Polish Gen. Andrzejozak recently stated he estimates millions of Ukrainians have vanished… many of these are bodies swallowed by the mud or cremated by thermobaric artillery.

I will not second guess Russian high command, but it seems likely that Russian forces will move westward as soon as the ground has dried enough to support Russian armour which is lighter than NATO tanks. I suspect Abrams, Leopard 2s and Challengers will be abandoned by fast retreating Ukrainian troops. The main weakness of these tanks is their weight which will keep them immobilized while Russian armour moves along.

R.I.P. UKRAINE

Posted by: Liberator | Mar 29 2024 17:29 utc | 23

Agreed. The Russians will NEVER jeopardize their soldiers needlessly. Only when Ukr has been decimated using stand-off weapons will Russian offensive action take place. Remember: There is no rush and time is working in Russia's advantage.

Posted by: NewJerseyJoe | Mar 29 2024 17:32 utc | 24

Salman Rafi Sheikh endorses b's view and says that
"The Magnitude of Western defeat in Ukraine is higher than expected"

"...Europe is in a state of desperation; the continent is losing in Ukraine despite the ‘mighty’ strength of NATO; and European leaders are now vowing for a ‘stronger’ response, including via sending their own forces to combat Russian military forces in Ukraine. Will this decision, if it is ultimately taken, bring any meaningful change to Ukraine’s slow fall is, however, a moot question. What makes it a moot question is the scale of Ukraine’s fall and the depletion of Western stockpiles of weapons and ammunition that it is already finding hard to refill. Russia, on the other hand, is already outpacing its rivals in the West as far as the production of more – and better – weapon systems is concerned. A report in The Guardian noted that “Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners” primarily because they cannot match this level of military preparedness and the sheer ability to sustain the fighting for two to three years.

"The EU’s leader, Josep Borrell, recently noted after two years of high-intensity supply of weapons from EU allies, mainly from existing stocks, European states’ existing stocks are now depleted and “the conflict has evolved from a war of stocks to a war of production”, which, as the said report shows, Russia is clearly winning.

"This information is now public, reinforcing, alongside some recently leaked Pentagon documents, the reality of Russian dominance in Ukraine. Propaganda notwithstanding, these leaked documents show that the Pentagon believes that Russian losses in Ukraine have been far less than losses publicly stated by US officials. For example, as opposed to various publicly stated estimates, Russia is said to have lost around 200,000 troops. But the Pentagon documents from February and March 2024 put the figure at around 17,000 only. Such is the scale of propaganda and the magnitude of the fear surrounding the collapse of the NATO expansion agenda that the West is now taking steps to hand over seized Russian assets to Ukraine to fund their war on Russia. They’re probably running out of enough money too!

"The situation, according to a French newspaper’s investigation – which also claims to have consulted many official reports – is “critical”, with many French military officials ridiculing the idea of sending French troops to Ukraine, where the French army of “cheerleaders” can hardly fight a battle handed Russian military. But France is not an exception here. Most European military forces share this state of affairs, with very little active hardware or few troops to offer. Surely, Europe cannot send in everything, since it will leave the continent itself unprotected..."
continued at
https://journal-neo.su/2024/03/29/the-magnitude-of-western-defeat-in-ukraine-is-higher-than-expected/

Posted by: bevin | Mar 29 2024 17:35 utc | 25

"over 6,000 amendments to the bill of which some 4,300 have gone through the committee", for the new conscription law.

that sounds radical. is that normal?

Posted by: annie | Mar 29 2024 17:38 utc | 26

A Su-35 plummetted to earth in a fireball over Crimea. Pilot ejected. Possible "friendly fire" incident, though Ukraine will undoubtedly claim that they shot it down.

Posted by: AJ | Mar 29 2024 17:41 utc | 27

I think he forgot to mention that they had already shot down 98% of the missles from Russia in April :)

Posted by: James T | Mar 29 2024 17:47 utc | 28

"over 6,000 amendments to the bill of which some 4,300 have gone through the committee", for the new conscription law.

that sounds radical. is that normal?

Posted by: annie | Mar 29 2024 17:38 utc | 25

###################

Corruption in Ukraine is normal, so if there is any money attached to promoting or blocking of amendments, then this looks like what the next-generation Ukrainian political economy may look like.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 29 2024 17:52 utc | 29

There are rumors of an upcoming big Russian offensive. I don't buy those yet.
----

Not impossible, but nor do I buy it yet.
It all seems more a product of western press and commentary circles either wish casting or purposeful raising of false expectations to help push their funding agendas than anything based on Russian MoD statements or actions, or even that of any ru politicians for that matter.

Posted by: knighthawk | Mar 29 2024 17:57 utc | 30

thank LoveDonbass, it seems extraordinary. i read the accompanying link to kiev post. it said most of the amendments had been proposed by Zelensky’s party, which was "holding up the process". i wonder if it has to do with Syrski's assertion that there's no need to mobilize 500K for the front. i'd imagine lots of money changing hands, and with zelensky bitching about the billions just hanging out in the US,'just give us the cash', smth's up

Posted by: annie | Mar 29 2024 18:08 utc | 31

Test

Posted by: John Tasker | Mar 29 2024 18:08 utc | 32

Ukraine is a huge country, but it's exceedingly underpopulated (even moreso now for obvious reasons), I truly think the only thing that could possibly stop the Russians at this point is "a nuclear incident" either in Ukraine or Russia itself, which need not even be that cataclysmic, but enough to generate great alarm among the Russian public, government officials, and allies such as the Chinese. However I hope there's a secret understanding between the US and Russia that that simply cannot and shall not be allowed by either party, because ultimately this is a pincer movement and economic squeeze against the EU and especially Germany, which is all but entirely energy resource impoverished, with the exception of Norway. Making of the EU an economic power without its own ability for independent hegemonic projection as a bloc, thus living on borrowed economic power following the collapse of the Berlin Wall, especially as far as the US empire is concerned vis a vis the latter's pursuit of total mastery of Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

Posted by: Ludo | Mar 29 2024 18:14 utc | 33

Translated by Anti-Spiegel
.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy has said that power facilities in the Ukrainian regions of Dnieperpetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kirovograd and Cherkasy were damaged in nighttime airstrikes. As a result, power cuts occurred in some regions of the country.

Ukraine is currently trying to hold territory and is preparing reserves for a new offensive, said Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Aleksander Syrsky.

TASS has collected the events surrounding Ukraine.

Course of the operation
Russian forces repelled 13 Ukrainian counterattacks in the past 24 hours, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. The enemy lost more than 525 fighters, the ministry said.

The ministry also said that on Friday night, the Russian armed forces “carried out a group attack with long-range air, sea and land-based precision weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, as well as drones on energy supply and air defense facilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces “would have carried out.

In addition, Russian air defenses destroyed 175 Ukrainian drones and fired 21 missiles from HIMARS and Vampire multiple rocket launchers during the day.

Kyiv is preparing reserves
Ukraine is currently trying to hold territory and is preparing reserves for a new offensive, said Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Alexander Syrsky. He cited maximum wear and tear on the enemy and the infliction of heavy casualties as the main objectives.

Syrsky added that Ukrainian forces are also on the defensive in the Kharkov region and are strengthening their positions. An “extensive complex of works to fortify areas and create a complex system of barriers” is being carried out there, he said.

Problems in the energy sector
As the energy company Ukrenergo announced, there are power cuts in some eastern regions of Ukraine. The company cited “the lack of sufficient generation capacity in the system to meet consumption in certain regions of the country” as the main reason. Shutdown plans are being introduced in the Dnieperpetrovsk and Kirovograd regions, as well as in the areas of the Zaporozhye region controlled by the Ukrainian armed forces. In addition, restrictions on electricity supply continue to apply in the Kharkov region.

According to the director of the Ukrainian Energy Research Center, Aleksander Kharchenko, Ukrainians will have to expect power outages and restrictions on electricity consumption in the summer. According to him, power outages may occur especially in the second half of July and August, as the summer peak of electricity consumption falls during this period.

Tusk convinces Macron
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he had convinced European partners, including France, not to block arms purchases for Ukraine outside Europe. “The Ukrainian soldiers don’t care where the missiles come from – Africa or Asia,” he said. According to the Polish Prime Minister, 80 percent of the 100 billion euros spent on ammunition and equipment comes from non-European suppliers. Tusk also emphasized that military aid to Ukraine should continue.

Bilateral
A possible Russian attack against the troops of a NATO country, in particular France, in Ukraine cannot serve as a basis for the application of Article 5 of the NATO Charter (on collective defense). This is the conclusion reached by experts from the German Bundestag when they analyzed the possible consequences of sending French ground troops to the former Soviet republic.

According to the experts, a collective alliance response would only be possible in the event of a Russian attack on a NATO country or a Russian attack on its territory. The Bundestag experts are of the opinion that “the military participation of French ground troops on the side of Ukraine would be based on the right to collective self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter and would therefore be permissible under international law.” However, sending ground troops from a NATO country to Ukraine does not automatically make the entire alliance a party to the conflict, but only the state that decided to send its troops.

Russia is not a threat to NATO
According to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, NATO countries are not threatened by an attack from Russia. Regarding Ukraine, he noted that “Russia will never agree to this country joining NATO,” as it would mean moving the alliance closer to Russia’s borders. The Hungarian Prime Minister suggested that the Politica Itical map and said that it would be ideal for Ukraine, as Russia's direct neighbor, to create a "buffer zone with security guarantees", otherwise Ukrainians could lose their land.
.
Machine translated
source

https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2024/kein-nato-verteidigungsfall-und-stromausfaelle-die-ereignisse-des-29-maerz/#comment-264156

Posted by: ossi | Mar 29 2024 18:15 utc | 34

Someone said that the russian offensive will start when the ground is dryer. I.e. from say early or mid May. Is this also a rumour ? I don't know.

Posted by: WMG | Mar 29 2024 18:21 utc | 35

skim off Russian billions
.
The EU no longer wants to transfer the proceeds to Kiev, but instead wants to keep them for itself
The EU does not want to transfer profits from funds frozen in the EU to Ukraine after all, reports Politico
.
Third-party funds for construction projects that will not begin
Russia's foreign currency reserves in Europe, amounting to around 300 billion euros, were also affected by the sanctions and were frozen. About 200 billion euros are in the European Union, mostly in the accounts of Belgium's Euroclear, the world's largest clearing system for international securities.

Ukraine has long wanted to acquire this money and the US-led West has actively supported it by looking for legal ways to steal these funds. Zelensky already mentioned these funds during his visit to Belgium last year. He said he needed them to rebuild the country:

“You have Russian assets. They [Russia] destroyed us, so we can take this money. Let’s find the key to this Russian money and spend it on rebuilding Ukraine.”
.
But who knows where the stolen money would have gone. Probably where the money that the US-led West donates from its own budgets goes - into the pockets of the Ukrainian leadership. There can be no talk of rebuilding the country if the Ukrainian army is in retreat and Western weapons are not helping to hold the front.

Steal legally
Seizure of frozen assets is also not legally possible, something several politicians, including Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, understand:

“What we need is a legal framework and a way to do this without destabilizing international financial flows. The macroeconomic implications are quite large.”

The West may also be acting cautiously because it has assets in Russia that it is reluctant to lose. For example, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Russia has a list of assets that could be confiscated from foreigners in response to their actions.

When will Ukraine get fed up?
But the EU has come up with something different. It separates the assets and the profits generated from them, which amount to up to five billion euros. For Ukraine, this is a huge sum: according to Elene Galuschka, a representative of the pro-Kiev lobby, this sum is equivalent to “one year of the IMF program”.

But despite numerous discussions by American and European officials about transferring all assets to Ukraine, and despite begging from the Ukrainian government, the EU has decided, either out of fear or because it no longer believes in a Ukrainian victory, according to Politico , not to transfer the winnings to Kiev, but to leave them with Euroclear.

According to the EU Commission, these funds are intended to “cover the costs, risks and losses incurred by the CSDs as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.”

So people no longer want to transfer this money to Ukraine, but it remains a heavy anchor that is dragging the whole of Europe into the abyss. Ukraine's need for money and weapons is growing and hope for an early end to the conflict is dwindling. It is unlikely that European politicians themselves believe in a Ukrainian victory, but they are following the course set by the US.

In my new book "The Ukraine Cartel - The double game about a war and the multi-million dollar business of the family of US President Biden", I factually and neutrally, based on hundreds of sources, reveal previously concealed facts and evidence about the family's multi-million dollar business of US President Joe Biden in Ukraine. Given current events, the question arises: Is a small group of greedy profiteers possibly willing
to bring us to the brink of a third world war for their personal profit?
.
https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2024/die-eu-will-die-erloese-nicht-mehr-an-kiew-ueberweisen-sondern-selbst-behalten/

Posted by: ossi | Mar 29 2024 18:23 utc | 36

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/32251

After Russia's attacks on thermal power plants, Ukraine imports electricity from Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and Moldova.

Prime Minister Denis Shmygal announced this.

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/32248

Ukrainians publish photographs of our robots on the battlefield in the Avdeevka direction. The copter monitors the ground drone. The war is changing so quickly that by next spring people will be separated by a neutral zone where unmanned vehicles will fight. There is a war of technology, and this must be accepted. Connect artificial intelligence to existing models and get a scene from Terminator 2.

Alexander Kharchenko

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 29 2024 18:24 utc | 37

Test post:

I a previous thread I tried to post a link to Pepe Escobar's article on Strategic Culture Foundation. It never appeared. Neither did my following post with the SCF link replaced by a mirror on Zero Hedge. It seem that the TypePad platform blocks all links to SCF and bans users posting the link. Let's see if I am still banned.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 29 2024 18:24 utc | 38

Posted by: ossi | Mar 29 2024 18:23 utc | 35

There were news recently that EU plans to use the income proceeds from Russian assets. They aren't going to give it to Ukraine, but instead they are going to fund some sort of lawsuits against Russia with them.

In other words EU hopes to prop up its law industry to prop up services GDP, lol. Maybe it's one of the still few 'healthy' sectors left in EU.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 29 2024 18:28 utc | 39

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 29 2024 18:24 utc | 37
.
.
Remedy at least in an emergency:
Put a # before and after the link
Make a note for users to remove this # when copying

Posted by: ossi | Mar 29 2024 18:29 utc | 40

Pepe reads MoA

I tried to post this article by Pepe Escobar on Strategic Culture earlier, but my comment never appeared. Maybe it is because MoA's platform blocks links to SCF and Zero Hedge. Here is a copy via some random Wordpress site.

The Nuland – Budanov – Tajik – Crocus connection - Pepe Escobar, via xenagoguevicene

On a previous thread I commented on the possible links between Victoria Nuland's retirement and Crocus attack, but my comment did not inspire any meaningfull discussion. I am happy to see Pepe picked up on the angle and in part quotes me. He says it is "one of the FSB’s prime lines of investigation."

Pepe also links to Marat Khairullin's essay, as translated and reposted by “S” on the open thread.

***

I am not sure if the Strategic Culture site is blocked in the EU. I bypass EU censorship be using an American DNS server at IP address 1.1.1.1 - no VPN service needed!

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 29 2024 18:32 utc | 41

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 29 2024 18:28 utc | 38
.
,
The EU, here I am speaking for Germany, has long since come to an end.
Just if you look at our infrastructure, roads in the East are already broken down to GDR levels. About 4,500 bridges at the end, schools Marote ERGO the state has been bankrupt for a long time, only civil servants are becoming more and more, a idiot state for every government that comes, civil servants about 23,000 new ones in 2 years, appointed according to their attitudes... should probably slow down every subsequent government

Posted by: ossi | Mar 29 2024 18:34 utc | 42

I’ve seen videos of Ukrainian volunteers literally fighting a buncha dudes, just to get into the “anti press-gang” vans to go fight for their Ukraine.

you see them walking home backwards dejectedly, even birds are so dismayed they fly backwards too.

Posted by: Featherless | Mar 29 2024 18:35 utc | 43

Larry Johnson (www.sonar21.com):

- Zelenski fears that Russia will kill him.
- Russia is trying to eliminate Elon Musk's "Star Link" which was used for targeting russian (civilian ???) targets.
- Russia is stepping up attacks on the ukrainian energy powerstructures.
- Launching Taurus long range missiles is very dangerous because Russia can't determine whether or not these missiles are fitted with nuclear warheads and therefore will likely see a russian retaliation with nuclear missiles.

Posted by: WMG | Mar 29 2024 18:39 utc | 44

If Die Welt's assessment is accurate and the Ukrainian front begins to collapse in late May or early June, then there's a realistic possibility of Russian forces advancing towards the left-bank suburbs of Kyiv by the end of July. Of course, that means the Russian military must swiftly capture Kharkiv.

A more likely scenario is the Kiev manages to temporarily stabilize the front along the Dnieper then it may take Russia four months make a new breakthrough which of course it will do. So, either Ukraine is effectively beaten by the end of July or latest by the end of the year. The West doesn’t have the time to send a significant force to save the Ukraine.

Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Mar 29 2024 18:42 utc | 45

A friend recommended this live stream by Garland Nixon with Joti Brar of the communist party of great britain (marxist-leninist).

IMPERIALISM: DECADENT,PARASITIC, AND DOOMED WITH JOTI BRAR (9) - THE CORRUPT LEADING THE BRAINWASHED

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 29 2024 18:44 utc | 46

https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/ukraine-is-tip-of-the-iceberg-lavrov/

Ukraine is ‘tip of the iceberg’ – Lavrov

The conflict is just one facet of the West’s campaign to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia, the Foreign Minister has said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. © Sputnik

The Ukraine conflict is only one part of a wider stand-off between Russia and the West, which seeks to contain Moscow at all costs, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said.

In an interview with Izvestia published on Friday, Lavrov stated that after the Western-backed coup in Kiev in 2014, the new Ukrainian authorities unleashed “a war… against their own people” in Donbass.

The hostilities, the minister said, were only stopped by the now-defunct Minsk agreements, which were designed to give the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state.

However, Lavrov said that the governments of both ex-Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko and incumbent Vladimir Zelensky did their best in the meantime to crack down on the Russian language and culture, introducing stringent restrictions targeting its use in all spheres.

Moscow repeatedly urged Kiev’s backers in the West to condemn and put a stop to the discriminatory policies which are also in violation of Ukraine’s constitution, Lavrov said. However, “not one of the Western countries that are now shielding Ukraine from all accusations has ever publicly condemned these absolutely illegal actions,” he insisted.

“The only explanation is that Ukraine is the tip of the iceberg. And that the declared goal of the West is to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.”

Lavrov added that in practice this implies that those who do the West’s bidding when it comes to this mission, “are allowed to do anything, including direct support for… Nazism. It is sad”.

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Ukraine conflict could have been easily avoided if the West had taken Moscow’s security interests into account. However, those interests “were completely ignored” as NATO moved closer to Russia’s borders by incorporating Eastern European states and former Soviet republics, Putin added.

The Russian president has also repeatedly said that the main goals of Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine are to “denazify” and “demilitarize” the neighboring state, as well as protecting the population of Donbass from Kiev’s attacks. The two Donbass republics, along with two other former Ukrainian regions, overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in the autumn of 2022. (RT)

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 29 2024 18:48 utc | 47

Ukraine Weekly Update, 29th March 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-256

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Mar 29 2024 18:53 utc | 48

Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Mar 29 2024 18:42 utc | 44

In the first months of SMO they had a strategy according to which towns should be encircled and be left to whither. However, surrounding towns require a separate blocking force left behind, and encircling towns would require lot of forces, which weren't available then.

This time, with a more or less comprehensive defeat of organized AFU resistance, I believe it is possible that larger towns and cities could be actually cut off and encircled.

Russia doesn't necessarily need to take large cities like Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk to achieve goals, only some chokepoint and rail hub cities like Pokrovsk. And Kiev is kind of in the periphery, they might not actually need it at all.

However, one has to remain skeptical of any large offensive after seeing what this war is like after 2 years. But perhaps encirclements are possible, certainly more potential now than 2022.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 29 2024 19:00 utc | 49

The interview with Commander-in-Chief Syrsky is an attempt to tell a fairy tale in a very bad situation. And pump yourself up, but as usual it turned out badly.

Three false messages were chosen;

1. Syrsky stated that the Russian Armed Forces outnumber the Armed Forces of Ukraine 6 to 1, they are covered en masse with FABs, which demolish any positions of the Ukrainian army, but at the same time the Russians are losing more manpower than the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Absurd!
* How can you fire fewer shells, sit forever under the blows of bombs and missiles, but at the same time say that the enemy is suffering more losses. How?

2. The situation at the front is difficult, but we are regaining more positions than we are losing: said Commander-in-Chief Syrsky.
Absurdity and lies!
*during this time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces only lost positions/cities/villages. What does he return there?

3. Ukraine is now exhausting the enemy and accumulating forces/reserves - Syrsky.
Absurd!
*exhausts with the help of injection of his manpower in order to somehow stop the advance of the Russians. After all, how can you be exhausting when everything flies at you, and at the same time everyone knows that the Russians are producing even more and more, which means there will be no end to it. The missiles will not run out. Bombs even more so.

The worse things are in the country and at the front, the louder the slogans and the sweeter the lies!


https://t.me/legitimniy/17565

Posted by: Down South | Mar 29 2024 19:02 utc | 50

The law on mobilization was not adopted, among other reasons, because there is a serious conflict between the military and civilians in Ukraine.

Zelensky and Ermak are trying to maintain their ratings and “turn the switch” in matters of mobilization to the military, trying to hide the fact that they are the ones who make political decisions. It is unlikely that the law will go to the Verkhovna Rada in the second reading until mid-April. And this is despite the fact that mobilization in the country has actually failed: it was not possible to recruit 140 thousand in 3 months, and recruiting 60 thousand in the remaining months is a utopia.

Let us remind you that for three months now the Verkhovna Rada has not been able to pass the law on mobilization proposed by Bankova. After the first reading, about two thousand amendments were submitted, as a result, the bill, which was voted in the first reading in early January, is still being “finalized” and is unlikely to have a chance of being adopted - the OP again does not have a guaranteed 226 deputies. In addition, the delay may be due to the expectation of funding from the United States - according to the Budget Committee, the target mobilization figure (500 thousand people) will require costs of $19 billion, or a quarter of all budget expenditures.

Meanwhile, the flourishing terror of the TCC on the streets of the country will finally discredit the very idea of ​​mobilization, provoking a deep split and rejection of the actions of the military commissars by the population, which is increasingly resisting the military commissars in an organized manner.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/22231

Posted by: Down South | Mar 29 2024 19:05 utc | 51

Our source reports that the Russians have dealt another blow to the gas infrastructure in western Ukraine. They are hitting the UGS controls and distributors, which are very expensive to repair.

In fact, the Russian Federation is hitting the gas infrastructure in order to deprive the West of the opportunity to store and accumulate gas. This will increase dependence on direct gas supplies, otherwise the EU could end up in a very bad situation, as well as Ukraine as a whole. Also, gas prices will rise, as will tariffs in Ukraine. The stakes in the game are rising.

The attacks are likely to continue. Gas this year may again show “golden prices” if there is no agreement behind the scenes. So far everything is going in a negative direction.


https://t.me/legitimniy/17566

Posted by: Down South | Mar 29 2024 19:08 utc | 52

Ludo @ 32

The whole nuclear incident scenario has always been a worry of mine since the region is littered with operating nuclear plants. Something like a Fukushima type incident will be survivable and it would make for great press in the media. Anything to make Russia look bad on the global stage is on the table for action.

Posted by: circumspect | Mar 29 2024 19:08 utc | 53

Addition to; ableman | Mar 29 2024 16:05 utc | 7

Blackrock through Cargill, Monsanto and Vanguard "own" 17 million acres of Ukraine land as well as all the other things you mention.
The Ukrainians are no longer fighting for "their" country but US corporations. (Who are apparently now trying to sell these territories to the UE to limit losses.?)
***

PS. The Grain deals" and the destruction of EU farming to allow GM grain, pesticides and untaxed produce into Europe, is a topic worth watching. "Peasant/farmer revolts have their origins in the Uke war and the attitude of Brussels to financially supporting it.
***

Forget the age of 27 for call-up, unless you call a photo of a bus load of college students (18-20) in a bus, in uniform, on their way to the front - a school outing

Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 29 2024 19:12 utc | 54

https://t.me/intelslava/56816

🇷🇺🇺🇦 There are also reports that there was an arrival at the turbine room of the Kanevskaya HPP.

The consequences are unclear...

That is, it has already arrived twice to almost all major hydroelectric power stations in Ukraine. All that remains is the Kiev hydroelectric power station and the Kiev pumped storage power plant right next to it. Tashlyk PSPP. And the second big prize of Ukrainian hydropower is the Dniester PSPP with a capacity of 972 MW.

https://t.me/intelslava/56817

🇺🇦 Apparently, the energy sector in Ukraine cannot cope with the load. In more and more new areas, emergency operation of the power system is being introduced.

Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk were joined by two more - Kirovograd and Zaporozhye.

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 29 2024 19:12 utc | 55

@WMG 34

Russia doesn’t recognise Zelensky as the Ukrainian President from May 21st so things will ramp up from the end of May at the latest with Kharkiv the main target.

One ongoing challenge for Russia is Ukraine's numerical advantage in drones, which continue to pose problems for Russian forces.

Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Mar 29 2024 19:12 utc | 56

@unimperator 48

Oh, I’m not suggesting that Russia will storm Kharkiv…the city is slowly being degraded through de-energisation. Come the winter the city will effectively be uninhabitable if still in Ukrainian hands.

Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Mar 29 2024 19:20 utc | 57

To the extent that there is any remaining good morale among nazi ex-Ukrainian troops it is likely a silver lining to how few survivors return from the front.

I'm guessing next to none.

I asked in the past: how many "Ukrainian" survivors have you seen or met? My own answer is perhaps two, neither of them confirmed.

Since that is such a ridiculously low and entirely unreliable number; how many have you seen pictured in any news? I am talking about survivors recuperating far from the front (you can't mend limbs and serious injuries on the front). I haven't seen any.

None.

There is an easy answer as to why. They all die.

Hard to voice criticism or tell the truth when you're dead, thus some morale might remain.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 29 2024 19:27 utc | 58

It is a pity that Russia has to resolve this conflict by killing so many Ukrainians while the real architects of tos war pY np price or very low one.

The West can still print money and it is going very good with Wall street.

We can all imagine Ukrainian defeat bu the defeat of the collective west is still unthinkable.

Posted by: vargas | Mar 29 2024 19:29 utc | 59

...roads in the East are already broken down to GDR levels...

Posted by: ossi | Mar 29 2024 18:34 utc | 41

dont worry, here in bavaria we get a "its not in this years budget" answer when we ask our major when the pottholes on the main-road will get filled. for several years in a row.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 29 2024 19:30 utc | 60

Russia using miniature UGVs (unmanned guided vehicle?) in Berdychi. Small tracked vehicle with machine gun and 30mm grenade launcher.

https://twitter.com/T_90_M/status/1773744099327193295/photo/1

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 29 2024 19:30 utc | 61

https://t.me/s/belarusian_silovik

The best option for Ukraine would be to become a “buffer zone” between the West and Russia and receive security guarantees - Hungarian Prime Minister Orban.

We don’t have to go far back in history to find something similar.

The Austrian State Treaty (1955) and accompanying declaration of neutrality was unquestionably good for Austria and was the foundation of 40 years of that country's prosperity.

Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Mar 29 2024 19:32 utc | 62

Russia doesn't have to take risks, like storming Kharkiv. They can keep up the pressure.

No electricity in Kharkiv = no clean water, no functioning sewer system, no heating (yes, even gas furnaces have electric blowers), no communications, and virtually all forms of comfortable life grinds to a halt. The city will depopulate itself.

Posted by: Retaining_H2O | Mar 29 2024 19:36 utc | 63

There are rumors of an upcoming big Russian offensive. I don't buy those yet.

Agreed, but imo that's dependent on the AFU to continue to respond to Russian advances as if they might in part be probes that portend a much larger assault if Ukrainian defenses seem to be flagging in vigor.

If the AFU finds itself in the position that the Wehrmacht was in during 1944 and 1945, being ordered to hold the line with reinforcements that either didn't exist or didn't show up, then the Russians would again capitalize on such delusional (drug fueled?) thinking, and breakthroughs could start happening sooner rather than later. Granted, the AFU still has lots of bodies to plug holes in the line, even if they aren't getting properly rested, or getting proper support.

But as armies grow bone weary, mistakes become more likely to happen, and bad orders get issued more frequently, and proper orders more often either don't get made, or don't get delivered.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 29 2024 19:55 utc | 64

There are rumors of an upcoming big Russian offensive. I don't buy those yet.


It depends on what one means by 'big offensive.' The Russians are already on the offensive, and they are making steady progress. If one means 'big arrow offensive,' I don't buy that either, unless Ukraine is closer to economic, military and political collapse than I think is the case. However, it might not require much more than a handful of Ukie colonels or captains at the line of contact simply laying down their arms and opening big holes in the line, for the whole house of cards to come crashing down.

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 29 2024 20:00 utc | 65

After Russia's attacks on thermal power plants, Ukraine imports electricity from Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and Moldova.

I immediately wondered if payments were assured, and not in Ukrainian currency! Who would be the guarantor if these nations balked at trusting Ukraine to be good for it?

Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 29 2024 20:06 utc | 66

Reportedly a new version of KH-101 missile has been released. Warhead weight increased from 450 kg to 800kg and range maybe a bit.

Also DTEK regarding the fate of two power plants.

There is now an empty field and scorched earth where the Burshtynska and Ladyzhinskaya thermal power plants used to be...

Full excerpt from a speech by DTEK Executive Director Dmitry Sakharuk:

“Speaking of March 22, unfortunately, two of the largest plants received the greatest damage since the war began [the Burshtynskaya TPP and Ladyzhynskaya TPP are the two most powerful DTEK plants].

Eight missiles hit each of the stations. Unlike previous periods, for example last winter, the accuracy of the missiles is amazing. We're taking about a distance of ONE METER. If it used to be 100 , 200, 300 meters, they now arrive within a meter.

Unfortunately, we were not able to shoot these missiles down and the consequences are simply colossal. It's an empty field now – no roofs, no equipment, just scorched earth... ”

Commentary: What do you mean eight missiles that couldn't be shot down twice? Just like those other eight missiles that hit the DneproGES the other day (they weren't shot down either. I wonder if there's a single video of that happening, you clowns). I just want to ask the liars from the Ukrainian infodumps – what about those words you said about most of the missiles being shot down? 😂😂😂

Well, the most precious thing is that, according to the head of DTEK (the station operator), the Burshtynska and Ladyzhynska TPPs are now “an empty field... and scorched earth.” That is, they cannot be restored.

YURI PODOLYAKA
https://t.me/yurasumy/14120

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 29 2024 20:07 utc | 67

The Economist's choice of language in the excerpt B quotes in his post is very revealing of that rag's attitude towards democracy and the democratic process in apparently obstructing Zelensky's push for more cannon fodder. You almost think The Economist would support military conscription in Britain if its editors believed sending the Great Unwashed living on that island to the frontlines in eastern Ukraine would help Zelensky in any way.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Mar 29 2024 20:13 utc | 68

Russia using miniature UGVs (unmanned guided vehicle?) in Berdychi. Small tracked vehicle with machine gun and 30mm grenade launcher.

https://twitter.com/T_90_M/status/1773744099327193295/photo/1

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 29 2024 19:30 utc | 60


I've been expecting something along these line for a while, I know that Russian companies have been working on these since before the SMO began. I imagine some companies in the west are, as well. I recall as far back as five years ago seeing some video on YT by a small team building single-man AFVs/scouting vehicles with light armor, tracks, a machine gun and a grenade launcher, and their prototype was working. I suspect that that item could be converted to unmanned operation pretty easily, if the comms could be protected- always a challenge against the Russians.

It's not clear to me exactly what's going on in the photo you posted, the scale of the machine guns doesn't seem to match the scale of the terrain, and the tracked platforms look pretty small to be recycled hulls from the 50s/60s, but I'm just eyeballing. On the other hand they look pretty big to be scratch-builds- ie, bigger and easier to see/target than they need to be. I hope to see some reports from other sources.

If I were designing UGV assault vehicles, I think I'd go for a snake design- all-terrain, hard to see and target, with weapons that lie down along the spine until needed. I think you could pack all the needful into a 10-12 foot jointed cylinder about 16" in diameter.

I hope the war doesn't last long enough for those to make it to the field, but I suppose if somebody has already been working on it, it could happen next week.

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 29 2024 20:15 utc | 69

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 29 2024 20:00 utc | 64

Interesting proposition, and it has me wondering if the government in Kiev possibly lacking legitimacy soon might not provide the needed cover for such officers to decide, that without proper lawful civilian leadership, the military was obligated to trust in its own judgement.

Ha, and just this second I'm reminded of how on the TV show Babylon 5 a breakdown in the chain of command resulted in part of the Earth's military deciding they wouldn't follow the illegal orders coming from Earthgov.

https://www.astro.umd.edu/~avondale/Reviews/B5/s3-pointofnoreturn.html
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8h8s7a

Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 29 2024 20:23 utc | 70


No electricity in Kharkiv = no clean water, no functioning sewer system, no heating (yes, even gas furnaces have electric blowers), no communications, and virtually all forms of comfortable life grinds to a halt. The city will depopulate itself.
Posted by: Retaining_H2O | Mar 29 2024 19:36 utc | 62

That is the most cheap way of waging the war for Russia and besides nobody is killed. A kind of soft expulsion of population.

However, Dima says that Ukrainians lack nothing, they have a lot of HIMARS ammunition and everything. Russian army has a lot of problems and losses.

Posted by: vargas | Mar 29 2024 20:45 utc | 71

Ten day forecast has eastern Ukraine dry and warm. Its been that way a while. Mud season may end early.

Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 29 2024 20:47 utc | 72

circumspect @ 52

At Fukushima most radiation got sent over Pacific Ocean by prevailing winds.

Real information hard to come by. Discussion in fora like this one impossible. Que sera, sera.

Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 29 2024 20:55 utc | 73

If Russia begins a major offensive during the crucial phase of the US election year, he can bet on a massive response, motivated by the absolute need for the Commander in Chief to appear strong.

As long as the situation approximates a stalemate, Biden is politically limited to provocations like Crocus (painful though they may be).

Better to continue the slow grind until after the new administration takes over (if there is one). They might have a different approach anyway.

Posted by: Dave | Mar 29 2024 20:59 utc | 74

https://off-guardian.org/2024/03/28/a-very-curious-crocus-video/

Indeed a pretty interesting video.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 29 2024 21:04 utc | 75

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 29 2024 21:04 utc | 74

It is a strange video, and I'm not sure what the off-guardian commentary is implying. A false-flag? For me the guy with the police-dog needs explanation. Was it a sting op that went wrong? Let the conspiracy theories abound!

@bevin

Yes, western(ised) millennials will suck up pop culture like a vacuum cleaner, but they will never ever fight wars. Ever.

Posted by: Patroklos | Mar 29 2024 21:19 utc | 76

Unconfirmed reports (from my vantage point) tonight talk of cryptocurrency payments to the Crocus terrorists that links them via the blockchain to Ukraine. If so this is the equivalent of Gavrilo Princips being apprehended. As I havr often underlined Zelensky's official tenure as Pres. runs out tomorrow. A Russian demand to hand over the ruling clique in exchange for an honorable peace could end this sooner than we think.

Posted by: Stierlitz | Mar 29 2024 21:20 utc | 77

Those FAB 3000's soon to be deployed are sure to smash up treelines and trenched postions for a breakthrough.

Russia Launches Mass Production of FAB-3000 World's Most Destructive Bomb Amid Ukraine Conflict

There is question of which aircraft can deliver this massive device but I am sure the Russians have figured out a plan.

How Possible is to Turn 3-ton FAB-3000 Dumb Superbomb into a Smart Glide Munition and Which Aircraft can Lift It

Posted by: circumspect | Mar 29 2024 21:32 utc | 78

ahh they needed a traitor I got it

Posted by: Macpott | Mar 29 2024 21:34 utc | 79

Posted by: Patroklos | Mar 29 2024 21:19 utc | 75

Man, who knows. Off-Guardian has gone a little batshit in the days since the pandemic lockdowns and "vaccines" (speaking on their reporting from the American side and ostensibly for small business owners* - I know little to nothing about how it was handled in the UK or EU). But the author, who does live in Russia, seems to take pains to point out that everyone reacts a little differently (even strangely) in the face of such traumatizing events. The yellow jacket guy, the two dudes hanging out by the pole and the cop need an explanation, tho, IMO. Some in the comments are definitely making the false flag claim. As I tend to want to see all angles, I recommend you check it out.

One of them links to Edward Slavsquat piece on the Crocus attack. He also has some questions:

https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/crocus-terror-attack-question-more

*-In the US we had a "paycheck protection program" loan apparatus where small businesses could get loans ostensibly to cover employees' wages during the lockdowns, and which could be forgiven. Other than the restaurant owners I know, most SBs who received them have recovered. The restaurant business has always been fraught with risk in the States. I don't know if "ironically" is the right word, maybe "cynically" is better, but MANY of the loudest talking heads and ideologues in the US Congress who are against college loan forgiveness took out pandemic PPP loans (which - of course - did not end up going to employees) and had them forgiven. I guess the correct word is "hypocrisy", but that one's lost all meaning to our ruling elites these days.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 29 2024 21:45 utc | 80

My MSM feed is pumping and dumping the most bizarre propaganda stories left and right. They pop up, with big scare headlines, and then if I go back to look at them, they're gone. The gist seems to be that Tajikistan is Russia's "new enemy", millions of Russians have been warned not to leave their homes, and there's a wave of xenophobic anti-tajik violence sweeping the RF. Then there are wonderful pictures of anti-aircraft guns purchased by the US for Ukraine 'while they still had money.' Russia receives 'fatal warning' from Budanov.

I don't usually scroll the headlines, let alone read the articles, but sometimes when there's a lot going on I like to see what the Deep State wants me think. I think I'm going to give that a rest for a bit.

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 29 2024 21:57 utc | 81

ossi | Mar 29 2024 18:15 utc | 33
Thanks for that post.

…80 percent of the 100 billion euros spent on ammunition and equipment comes from non-European suppliers….

Lol. The Euro-peons really aren’t any good at this….
The U$ made sure from Day 1 and before, that “money for Ukraine” was mostly spent in propping up U$ military and stock holders.
Question. Who are these “non-Euro-peon” suppliers?
So euros are leaving Europe to bolster which economies?

Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 29 2024 22:00 utc | 82

Honzo some of them are very small, just a a meter or so. Both Russian and western ones. Small mobile platforms for slightly heavy infantry weapons.

As for the west they've been working on this stuff since all the way back to the early 1980ies and before. At that time they had some robotic M-113s they were testing. This was public in various civilian special interest military magazines. Actual machines being tested and worked on and not PowerPoint dreams although of course there was that too (some of the designs aired back then still blow everything else out of the water, they were really nice*, never seen trace of those since).

* Just in case anyone actually read the same stuff I'm in particular thinking of the low square four-wheeled thing with a central turret/platform and where all wheels were fully independent in 360 degrees and there was no real front, side, or back. It looked like an incredibly nimble and mobile design.

Of course depending on how one sees things the German nazis had small remote controlled tracked tank killers in WWII that saw some limited use, or one could go even further back to Tesla's radio-controlled boat.

I think there are three main reasons why one hasn't seen more of this kind of stuff earlier:
· Lack of perceived need since cannon fodder is cheap.
· Fear of self-harm from the simple easy solutions that just fire at anything living. This translates into feature creep that ramps up difficulty and cost.
· Cost efficiency (partially technical and computational limitations, some of which have improved a lot over the decades).

And of course if the people you've got are dumb or incompetent enough it doesn't matter how fancy the toys are. This whole "Ukraine" thing should make that obvious.

On snakebots: some have been made but they don't satisfy the KISS principle and are cumbersome and costly unless absolutely required. I think the serious one I've seen was intended for search and rescue in earthquake scenarios.

Anyway with Joker-10:
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240329/joker-10-whats-known-about-russias-unique-hibernating-fpv-drone-1117639682.html
we now fully live in the age of PKD's Screamers:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Screamers_(1995_film)

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 29 2024 22:06 utc | 83

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 29 2024 20:00 utc | 64

One TG post said it was an AGS-17 grenade launcher rather than a machine gun. Whatever it is there will be the question of how effectively it can be aimed.

What’s having an impact is equipment that can be freely purchased online and used as is, then whatever can be modified without too much technical expertise, then whatever can be easily built using standard designs and components, and that can be supported and repaired with minimal expertise by people who are being shot at.

If there’s a source for those little tracked drones and someone who can rig a mount for the grenade launcher the it’s only a question funds and initiative.

A project to produce designs and software for flexible weapon mounts might be useful because it could provide worked out solutions for fitting remote controlled weapons onto what are most often civilian platforms. These seem to be called “weapon stations” but the military gear is expensive and on the wrong end of the procurement-bureaucratic conga line.

Producing something that will make a difference using available funds, technology and expertise places enormous limitations on the space of plausible designs.

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 29 2024 22:07 utc | 84

Why russia is attacking the ukro energy sector almost in the summer & notin the winter?
Another of chessmasters 5d chess moves?
Infrastructure & railway Chessmaster will attack next full moon?

Posted by: SlowSoft | Mar 29 2024 22:11 utc | 85

On FAB-3000 glide bomb carrier - Kinzhal weights over 4 tons and is carried by Mig-31. Regarding Su-34 - there was a piece of news that a month ago Su-34 was used to deliver a Kinzhal missile.

New UKR mobilization law - my feeling is that UKR parlaiment tries to bloc it by obstructimg it. Two weeks ago there were only 2500 proposed amendments. Now it is almost double.

UKR army - credit to them they keep fighting and they are still counterattacking. Read daily reports of RUS general staff. Big question is for long will UKR be able to fight as single organized army.

Attacks on UKR hydro-electric stations - someone on X pointed out that they are used to balance electric grid as they can be phased in during few minutes. This means that without them there will be constant risk of unbalanced grid and outages. It will be impossible to run any industrial facility, outages will cause major production losses.

Posted by: J_Schneider | Mar 29 2024 22:14 utc | 86

The disabling of the Ukro electrical generation and distribution system is a most welcome development -
Especially if the Ukros are proposing to manufacture more of their own weaponry in-house.
You can't run heavy industry without a reliable supply of serious amounts of electrical power.
Let's hope for more of the same.

Posted by: Engineer-John | Mar 29 2024 22:16 utc | 87

Re: Questions about Crocus, I have another meta-question. Why did Off-Guardian's Riley Waggaman publish at Off-Guardian, under his own name with no attribution, exactly verbatim what Edward Slavsquat published at his Substack 2 days prior, here:

https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/a-very-curious-crocus-video

It's the exact same piece as I linked at Off-Guardian above.

Is Riley Waggeman a nome de plume for Edward Slavsquat? Or is it the other way around? Or just poor journalistic ethics by Off-Guardian? The radio call mentioned in both articles links to the same Riley Waggaman YouTube video. Did I just dox one of these guys, is Riley Waggaman Edward Slavsquat?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 29 2024 22:16 utc | 88

Ha. I guess it wasn't a secret. All I had to do was go to his Twitter/X account, and yes, apparently Slavsquat is Waggaman's "pen name" at Substack.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 29 2024 22:17 utc | 89

thanks b.
Very nice compilation to be documented. Someone should compile a book on Western failures of strategic proportions, to be studied in the future. In a high-school. As an example of stupidity.
Now the whole EU will jump in help to supply Ukraine with the electricity, making the field for extra high prices and additional taxes. When things go bad, rob your population, to make it worse. Expect panic soon.
Also, the last atom of the energy that Ukraine has, it must keep for a few nuclear power-plants cooling and a balance in the net. Water generated energy one can keep at max production when the demand is high, while with the nuke based generation operator must reduce the production output due to a higher pull. Since 60s, the Ukrainian and for good measure the whole East European distribution system was upgraded almost every 5-7 years, but still that remains the issue.
It looks like Russia is marking the dark map of the territory they want to liberate and keep. The famed buffer zone included.

Posted by: whirlX | Mar 29 2024 22:20 utc | 90

Attacks on UKR hydro-electric stations - someone on X pointed out that they are used to balance electric grid as they can be phased in during few minutes.
Posted by: J_Schneider | Mar 29 2024 22:14 utc | 85
=============================================
I guess this is referring to pumped-storage capacity which can be made available in a few minutes - as and when required.

Posted by: Engineer-John | Mar 29 2024 22:21 utc | 91

You can't run heavy industry without a reliable supply of serious amounts of electrical power.
Let's hope for more of the same.

Posted by: Engineer-John | Mar 29 2024 22:16 utc | 86

You can't run heavy industry without workers, either. Where are those going to come from?

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 29 2024 22:30 utc | 92

@ Tom_Q_Collins 87

An interesting one... Russian social media is full of Conspiracy theories at the moment, like dubious videos about two different groups of attackers and it's not what the Russian Authorities need right now. However, it's helpful to the likes of MI6 who are trying to create confusion. This is classic stuff.

Meanwhile "An-Naba”, IS's magazine, has a statement by its speaker Abu Huzaifa Al-Ansari, saying the atrocity was organized and dedicated to the 10th anniversary of the founding of IS

Three terrorists did the shooting, while the fourth was setting fire to the building using a flammable mixture. An-Naba, said there could have been more victims, but the weapons became unusable, and the terrorists then retreated from the scene of the attack.

Al-Ansari emphasized the group had not been destroyed, despite the statements of many politicians (he said “infidels”), and then promised more attacks.


Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Mar 29 2024 22:33 utc | 93

On snakebots: some have been made but they don't satisfy the KISS principle and are cumbersome and costly unless absolutely required. I think the serious one I've seen was intended for search and rescue in earthquake scenarios.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 29 2024 22:06 utc | 82

I'm surprised you say that. One of the great advantages of snakebots is their simplicity. I may have seen the earth-quake related snakebot you mentioned, the difficulty with it was that it was composed of three inflatable/deflatable tubes that ran the length of the body, so the whole snake attempted whatever maneuver was being tried. The upside was that it could fit in very small holes and go a long way in.

A combat snake bot would have a solid exoskeleton of armored rings with internal 'muscles' of twisted fibers. Torquing the ends would cause contractions, and it would behave very much like a snake, with a very simple mechanism of operation. Rather than three full-length muscles, it would have overlapping triads of much shorter muscles, enabling fine control. If it's remotely operated, I don't think it would be difficult to build, there's really no technology needed that hasn't been around since the early twentieth century, it's just a matter of organizing it differently.

PKD is my favorite prophet, btw, with the possible exception of Neil Stephenson.

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 29 2024 22:46 utc | 94

https://ria.ru/20240329/terakt-1936753824.html

The FSB stopped the activities of three foreigners planning a terrorist attack in the Stavropol region. No mention of which Central Asian country but I suspect it was Tajkistan.

Does anyone else think we have entered a new phase of terrorism against Russia?

Posted by: Old Sovietologist | Mar 29 2024 22:53 utc | 95

Whatever it is there will be the question of how effectively it can be aimed.


Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 29 2024 22:07 utc | 83

That's always an issue, but I think it might be solved pretty directly for most applications by sending them out in threes and fours with little counter-battery audio locators. If you're pointed the right general direction and there's a gunshot coming from there, hitting the source shouldn't be too hard. I'm waiting to hear about someone fielding 'bunny ear' helmets for the troops, with similar audio location gear. It would be very handy in many circumstances, and might give soldiers a 'heads up' when FPV drones are approaching.

Also waiting on lidar point-defense directors for armored vehicles. Make every tank a mini-pantsir.

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 29 2024 22:55 utc | 96

Honzo | Mar 29 2024 22:55 utc | 95

There was something a week or two back that I think a Russian company developed. It detects the light frequency or something like that reflected off a lens. I forget the details now, but I assume all these robotic gadgets will have some form of a lens/visuals.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 29 2024 23:00 utc | 97

Petri Krohn | Mar 29 2024 18:32 utc | 40

That Tajik terrorist group is quite interesting, especially the various link ups. I think it also connects into the Kazakh colour revolution where to business jets left for London just an hour before the CSTO planes landed. I assume that was a Brit Tajik show. The US Islamic terrorist grouping, conversion to Wahhabism seemed a pre-requisite, but the Brit/'ISIS-K/Tajik show doesn't seem to include wahhabism and suicide bomber types.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 29 2024 23:12 utc | 98

Tom Q Collins @ 74, Patroklos @ 75:

I had heard or read online somewhere, can't remember where, that the terrorists had shot dead the security guards in the CCH building before proceeding into the foyer and the auditorium. That might suggest that some of the guards in the video you saw were the terrorists themselves, wearing the guards' jackets.

Edward Slavsquat and Riley Waggaman are indeed one and the same. He is an American journalist living in Russia.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Mar 29 2024 23:12 utc | 99

I have watched a lot of different video from Russia over the last ten years. In the rural and remoter regions especially, a lot of men wear ex military clothing. I have assumed this is bought at military surplus type stores and simply cheap hard wearing clothing.

As for the Crocus thing, there were others involved, not just the shooters. I think eight or nine have been formally charged now. Quite a few pulled in for questioning apparently.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 29 2024 23:27 utc | 100

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