Ukraine SitRep: Retreat Continues For Lack Of Defense Lines
On February 17, after Ukrainian units in Avdeevka had started to leave their position, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Syrski, announced a retreat to new defense lines:
"Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of the military, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines," Syrskyi said.He emphasized that Ukrainian soldiers had fulfilled their duty with dignity, did their best to destroy the best Russian military units and inflicted significant losses in manpower and equipment on the enemy.
"The lives of servicemen are the highest value. We will take back Avdiivka anyway," the Chief added.
As some had already predicted it turned out that the "more favorable lines" Syrski promoted did not exist.
On February 17, the same day Syrski announced the retreat, Strana already reported on the lack of new defense lines (machine translation):
Ukrainian photographers Konstantin and Vlada Liberov, who document the war, wonder around which Ukrainian city, next after Avdiivka, the Russians will try to push through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.They report this in their Instagram.
"So what is the next "fortetsia" - Pokrovsk? Or just Konstantinovka?", - write Liberov, criticizing the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine because of the lack of a second line of defense in Avdiivka.
"Where is the second line of defense? If you use the Deepstate map, "claws" around the city began to form almost a year ago. It certainly wasn't a surprise. So where's the second line of defense?" The Liberovs ask themselves.
"While the military was waiting for weapons for the Zaporozhye counteroffensive, the enemy passed through the fields, concreted trenches, built entire underground cities… Why didn't we do the same in Avdiivka? Moreover, a blind defense, the purpose of which is to deplete the enemy's forces, is like our official strategy.
Others confirmed the observation (machine translation):
West of Avdiivka, no significant defense line has been built for Ukrainian troops, and the Russian army continues to advance.This was announced by the editor-in-chief of Censor, Yuri Butusov, following his trip to this area.
"There are no words. Gap: here in Kiev, the supreme commander-in-chief says one thing, but at the front something completely different is happening. I want to say that no field lines of fortifications have been built beyond Avdiivka so far. I saw Russian drones attacking our soldiers in their burrows in the middle of a field, " Butusov said.
According to him, no conclusions are drawn from previous failures.
"If the government can't find builders to build at least basic rear lines of defense, if they can't find engineers to maintain modern equipment, drones, sensors, communications, if they can't find workers and technologists to produce ammunition, then there will never be enough attack aircraft," the journalist added.
The government claimed to have allocated money to local authorities for building defense lines. But such money always seem to drain away before the first fortification gets finished.
A lack of serious organization and incompetence add to the picture (machine translation):
In the absence of fortified trenches in the east of the country, the engineering services of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are to blame.This was stated in the social network X military engineer with the nickname Corsair.
As stated in a series of his posts, the heads of engineering services of brigades "do not know how to plan ahead and do not submit requests on time."
"When I arrive at a place, I have neither a map nor a proper justification. As a rule, they say: "We need to dig from that stump to planting." But that's not how it works. The defense should be solid, " Korsar wrote.
According to him, engineers do not have wood and concrete either, because "the brigades do not have the willpower to insist on this, and the AHS (operational-tactical group - Ed. ) do not have money."
For construction equipment, you need to sign contracts with businesses, but no one does this.
Since the loss of Avdeevka the Ukrainian forces had to fall back again and again. There are no natural barriers that could be used for defenses and there is no equipment and material to build defense lines across bare land.
Today even the New York Times took note of this:
Surprisingly Weak Ukrainian Defenses Help Russian Advance (archived) - New York Times, Mar 2 2024
Russian forces continue to make small but rapid gains outside of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, attributable in part to dwindling Ukrainian ammunition and declining Western aid.But there’s another reason the Kremlin’s troops are advancing in the area: poor Ukrainian defenses.
Sparse, rudimentary trench lines populate the area west of Avdiivka that Ukraine is trying to defend, according to a Times review of imagery by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite company. These trench lines lack many of the additional fortifications that could help slow Russian tanks and help defend major roads and important terrain.
Avdiivka became the site of a fierce standoff over the last nine months, emerging as one of the bloodiest battles of the war. When Russia captured the city on Feb. 17, its first major gain since last May, the Ukrainian Army claimed it had secured defensive lines outside the city.
But Russian troops have captured three villages to the west of Avdiivka in the span of a week, and they are contesting at least one other.
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The Ukraine friendly Live UA map from where the above maps were copied is not fully up to date. The town Orlivka, still shown as Ukrainian, is already in Russian hands.
The next geographic feature that might be useful for defense is the north-to-south river and reservoir line 12 kilometer west of Orlivka. Nothing in between was prepared for a serious defense. It can not be held against any serious attacker:
Ukrainian commanders have had ample time to prepare defenses outside Avdiivka. The area has been under attack since 2014, and Ukraine has had a tenuous hold on it since Russia launched its full-scale invasion two years ago.But the Ukrainian defenses outside Avdiivka show rudimentary earthen fortifications, often with a connecting trench for infantry troops to reach firing positions closest to the enemy, but little else.
But instead acknowledging that and instead of retreating to that river line the Ukrainian command is again throwing reserves into the already crumbling defenses.
Mr. Hrabskyi said Russia was currently preventing Ukrainian troops from shoring up their defenses by relentlessly bombarding them, including with powerful glide bombs carrying hundreds of tons of explosives that can smash through even well-prepared fortifications.“The quality of these defensive lines cannot be good enough to resist massive bulldozer tactics by the Russian forces,” Mr. Hrabskyi said.
The current political uproar in Europe and the U.S. about the war in Ukraine is an acknowledgment of the fact that Russia is certain to win this fight. I do not expect any serious consequences coming from it.
It will simply take a few more weeks of discussions until resignation sets in.
Posted by b on March 2, 2024 at 16:40 UTC | Permalink
next page »Back to historical context - unavoidable when discussing the patch-work state of what used to be known as Ukraine. Especially useful to understanding the massacre/ethnic cleansing of Poles/Jews by the Banderites in late WWII - and how this group of nationalist fanatics became supported by CIA/MI6 post WWII and then from 2008 up to the present. Little errors by Lenin, Stalin, and Kruschev also contributed to present god-awful mess created by USA.
I found it very useful - hope readers do too.
The Polish-West Ukrainian Conflict Over East Galicia in 1918−1919
Posted on March 2, 2024 by Yves Smith
Yves here. Europeans, and arguably even more so eastern Europeans, are acutely aware of their national and ethnic histories. This short Polish-Ukrainian conflict in east Galacia played a key role in souring relations between the people in the two areas.
By Dr. Vladislav B. Sotirovic, Ex-University Professor, Research Fellow at the Centre for Geostrategic Studies, Belgrade, Serbia ([email protected])
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 2 2024 16:53 utc | 2
German Ministry of Defense: a military conversation about plans to attack the Crimean Bridge was intercepted
A German military conversation about plans to attack the Crimean Bridge was intercepted, a Defense Ministry spokesman told DPA. The Ministry of Defense cannot say whether the recording of the conversation was changed before publication, the agency reports.
On March 1, the editor-in-chief of the Rossiya Segodnya media group and the RT television channel, Margarita Simonyan, published an audio recording of a conversation allegedly between high-ranking Bundeswehr officers that took place on February 19. Officers discussed the potential use of long-range Taurus missiles by Ukraine, including for attacks on the Crimean bridge.
The German Ministry of Defense reported that it was checking the information. Der Spiegel, after first analysis, classified the recording as genuine. The Bild newspaper wrote that many things indicate the authenticity of the materials. According to Welt, the military considers the recording “authentic.” Earlier today, March 2, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised to quickly comment on the publication of the recording.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6551505
Scholz promised to quickly comment on the publication of recordings of conversations of German military personnel
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised to quickly comment on the publication in Russia of recordings of German military conversations about the possible use of long-range Taurus missiles on the Crimean Bridge, DPA reports on the social network X.
On March 1, the editor-in-chief of the Rossiya Segodnya media group and the RT television channel, Margarita Simonyan, published an audio recording of a conversation allegedly between high-ranking Bundeswehr officers that took place on February 19. They discussed the potential use of long-range Taurus missiles by Ukraine, including for attacks on the Crimean Bridge.
The German Ministry of Defense reported that it was checking the information. Der Spiegel, after first analysis, classified the recording as genuine. The Bild newspaper wrote that many things indicate the authenticity of the materials. According to Welt, the military considers the recording “authentic.”
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6551479
Posted by: daffyDuct | Mar 2 2024 16:55 utc | 3
It's a relief that in at least in eastern Europe the imperialists are being routed. If only such a resistance could materialize in the middle east to check the beastiality of the Zionazis.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Mar 2 2024 17:03 utc | 4
@daffyDuct #3
'They discussed the potential use of long-range Taurus missiles by Ukraine, including for attacks on the Crimean Bridge.'
Inevitable - if not Taurus then other - a 'spectacular' if successful - but no effect on outcome of SMO - simply an increase in RF strikes on infrastructure (of all types). On front lines Ukrainians are in retreat - but still quite a way to go [imho] before Lenin's 'little error' is fully rectified.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 2 2024 17:11 utc | 5
Transcript of Taurus/Crimea discussion. Of note a reporter heard that the Taurus "doesn't work". Ouch!
"Gerhartz: Do you think we can hope that Ukraine will be able to do everything on its own? After all, it's known that there are numerous people there in civilian attire who speak with an American accent. So it's quite possible that soon they'll be able to use everything themselves, right? After all, they have all the satellite images."
...
Fenske: I would like to add something regarding the destruction of the bridge. We've been intensely studying this issue, and unfortunately, we've come to the conclusion that due to its size, the bridge is akin to a runway. Therefore, it may require more than 10, or even 20 missiles.
Gerhartz: There's an opinion that the Taurus can achieve this if the French Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft is used. [By who???]
Posted by: daffyDuct | Mar 2 2024 17:18 utc | 6
Posted by: daffyDuct | Mar 2 2024 16:55 utc | 3
###################
It's not just that the Western leaders are evil, they are also stupid. If Germany is planning to directly attack sovereign Russian territory, those conversations need to be held in the utmost secret. I am sure the Russians are planning and expecting many eventualities, but they should never be leaked to the public. Not just for the tactical disadvantage but since the West invests so heavily in control by propaganda, breaks in the narrative can be fatal.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 2 2024 17:19 utc | 7
While the Ukrainian fortifications may be relatively feeble, they slow down Russians quite efficiently. Unfortunately for Ukrainian "boots", the slow progress of Russians stimulates Ukrainian commands to organize counter-attacks that slow down Russians with a heavy price in blood.
Importantly, besides trenches, fortifications require a lot of bunkers, to survive artillery barrages and bombs, to place artillery, to story ammunition, to shelter FVP operators and front-line command. The fastest method to make bunkers is to convert basements in villages and towns. Bunkers that may survive heavy bombs are not fast to make.
Russian strategy requires to bleed Ukrainian army so much that eventual defense of large cities like Kharkiv, Zaporizhe, Odessa and less than a dozen of others will not be effective. This would avoid mass destruction.
There was a report in Strana.ua that even in Western Ukraine, few people are eager to be mobilized into meat grinders, but it is hard to predict when the fighting spirit will collapse.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 2 2024 17:21 utc | 8
zaluzhny got out while the going was good... maybe that was a set up for replacing the puppet zelensky, so zaluzhny can be the new puppet.. either that or macron doubles down on his stupidity and the military wizards in germany over ride sholtz to get the long range weapons into the ukrainian hands, with help from their nato friends of course... can nato walk away from this? they are already letting their rehearsed lines slip into a threat of direct intervention... well, it's nice the bullshit mask has come off and they are accidentally or otherwise having their true intentions voiced...
i encourage russia to take its time here..
Posted by: james | Mar 2 2024 17:31 utc | 9
@6
This translation is just manipulated. In the audio recording (ok, maybe it got manipulated too), available from here:
https://m.vk.com/video561960677_456241522
There is around 26:30 not even the slightest hint of the words Dassault or Rafale.
It's just pure imagination.
The Germans throughout the whole conversation mentioned french military only otwice, but were quite often referring to British and US military. They seem to be involved on the ground quite intensively.
Really crazy that French technicians are doing QA work on ground, checking if storm shadows are installed and programmed the right way.
Sure, no direct involvement at all ;)
Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Mar 2 2024 17:34 utc | 10
U have been wrong before. By ur writing I thought it would be over by 2022 but here we r.
I do hope it is over by the end of this year and the empire is not able to spin this
Posted by: A.z | Mar 2 2024 16:52 utc | 1
In B's defence you can only make an educated guess based on the information you are presented with. If the 'west' ignors Ukrainian losses and keep reanimating the corpse by supplying Ukraine with money, arms and new capabilities then the educated part is irrelevant and all you are left with is a guess.
Just for fun who in April 22 predicted Ukraine would still be fighting Russia in 2024 armed with F-16's, Abrams and Leopard tanks and state of the art British / French cruise missiles? I don't remember reading that anywhere.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 2 2024 17:37 utc | 11
Weeb Union report says AFU counter-attacked around Selenivka. There is not a lot of data, but apparently the attacks were stopped with new pictures showing some destroyed T-72, BMP and self propelled artillery system. Ukraine side of that line is across a minor river and an upslope and they will probably continue attempt to hold that position but the trenches on top of the hill are not very sturdy.
Problem of AFU is the west will send insufficient amount of AFV, artillery system and shell replacements, and mobilization has slowed down since January.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWIQxrOH4ek
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2024 17:40 utc | 12
If collective western strategy against Russia is to attack selected targets deep inside Russia, conduct acts of terrorism where ever Russian presence is found, and use high explosive technology to destroy the bridge and other landmark sites, then there is little need for Ukrainian defense of any kind.. Let Russia have all the territory in Ukraine Russia wants; just condition that gift of land with the caveat that where ever Russian presence is found, inside of or outside of Russia, the collective west will attack it forever.
Why bother to establish any kind of defense on the ground in Ukraine against Russia?
Posted by: snake | Mar 2 2024 17:41 utc | 13
@ snake | Mar 2 2024 17:41 utc | 13
maintaining an ongoing facade, is the wests specialty! this is nato - russia war... the sooner the masks come off, the better..
Posted by: james | Mar 2 2024 17:45 utc | 14
I sadly believe the West will triple down. I can easily see May coming around the corner and seeing full regional wars in both Lebanon and Eastern Europe.
We now know based on the leaked German call that what Numand was referring to when she said "we have some surprises for Putin" is that a gigantic attack on Crimea is coming.
The Russians leaked the call for one reason only. Because they believe the attack is imminent.
The lunatics in the West won't blink and go through their plans.
Nobody really cares about the Ukrainian defense lines. And this won't matter once Crimea is a smoking crater and the bridge is underwater.
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 2 2024 17:46 utc | 15
As some had already predicted it turned out that the "more favorable lines" Syrski promoted did not exist.TextText
Of course no serious lines of defense west of Avdeyevka. These cost Western Treasure, and the Ukrainian elites are not working so hard to get all that Western Treasure to just spend it on no stupid defense lines, especially the Syrsky faction, as they just got their hands on the full allocated Western Treasure to the Ukrainian military, and so have not had much time to swindle all that much.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Mar 2 2024 17:48 utc | 16
Ukraine Weekly Update, 1st March 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-cc1
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Mar 2 2024 17:49 utc | 17
🇷🇺🇺🇦The governor of the Leningrad region reported that air targets were intercepted over the Gulf of Finland and the coast in the Lomonosov region.According to the head of the region, there were no casualties or destruction. Shortly before this, operating restrictions were introduced at St. Petersburg Pulkovo Airport , which have now been lifted.
Tonight, Ukrainian formations have already tried to attack St. Petersburg with drones: a residential building in the north-eastern part of the city was damaged.
#Russia #St. Petersburg #Ukraine
@rybar
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 2 2024 17:51 utc | 18
I keep wondering if the Ukrainians are so short of ammo why dont they drop faster.
Maybe it faster than it seems to me.
The Israelis are evil scum and so is anyone that supports them.
In any case, does anyone know whats happened to wion news?
I can find pcs on you tube but having trouble connecting with the site.
Has it been shut down?
Southfront was attacked awhile ago, someone here told me how to find it again, and again thx to whoever that was.
So anyone know anything concerning wion. Thx in advance if you do.
Posted by: southfront fan | Mar 2 2024 17:52 utc | 19
https://t.me/readovkanews/75040
In the city of Karabulak in Ingushetia, special forces blocked the militants of the “Islamic State” * who were planning a terrorist attack - a CTO regime was introduced in the city. ACTO regime was introduced in the city of Karabulak in Ingushetia, reports the regional operational headquarters. At the moment, FSB special forces have blocked members of an international terrorist organization who were planning a terrorist attack in crowded places. Eyewitnesses share footage of a shooting battle in the area of Oskanova Street.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 2 2024 17:58 utc | 20
https://t.me/readovkanews/75036
Readovka
Cars with Russian license plates must leave Lithuania and “the entire European Union” within the next week - otherwise they will be confiscated. The Lithuanian Customs Department has warned that vehicles with Russian license plates must leave the territory of the republic by the end of next week. Not only do Lithuanian border guards demand that cars be taken out of the country as quickly as possible, but they also demand that the entire European Union be cleared. On what basis they declare on behalf of all EU countries is not stated. Vehicles with Russian license plates will be subject to confiscation, and, according to Article 155, confiscation will be followed by a fine. Moreover, the department did not forget to distinguish itself with Russophobia, emphasizing that the numbers are Russian.
Exceptions are only for transit cars. Similar restrictions are already in place in Latvia, where new amendments to the Road Traffic Law have come into force, allowing the confiscation of cars with Russian license plates. The authorities issue a fine ranging from €750 to €2 thousand and confiscate the car, then comes the interesting part. Confirmation has not yet appeared, however, according to media reports, all confiscated vehicles are sent to Ukraine “as a sign of solidarity.”
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 2 2024 17:59 utc | 21
U have been wrong before. By ur writing I thought it would be over by 2022 but here we r. I do hope it is over by the end of this year and the empire is not able to spin thisPosted by: A.z | Mar 2 2024 16:52 utc | 1
Utter nonsense, you Nazi-loving f***.
Several of us posters here—myself included—thought this war would be over much more quickly than has played out. I cannot speak for others, but for myself I failed to recognize the likelihood of fully fledged, undisguised NATO support for Ukraine. I honestly thought the threat of WWIII erupting would deter the fools currently in charge of the collective West. I was wrong.
b, on the other hand, has always been meticulously conservative in his forecasts about what may or may not happen, and has always buttressed any speculation he may engage in with reference back to indisputable facts on-the-ground.
So unless you can come up with some sort of quotation of b’s work to which you can provide us all with a URL, then kindly take your Nazi-loving ass back into whatever hole you crawled out of and lick your own ass clean of the diarrhea your own weak stomach is spewing forth as you watch the systematic, calculated, and inevitable eradication of that artificial “state” that was once phantasized as “Ukraine”.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Mar 2 2024 17:59 utc | 22
https://t.me/readovkanews/75035
In Gorlovka, a Ukrainian kamikaze UAV flew into the windshield of a car with a married couple inside - people burned alive, 18+Ukrainian militants deliberately attacked a car with a married couple inside with a kamize drone in the Nikitovsky district of Gorlovka. The UAV flew into the windshield and detonated. Civilians burned alive in their own car.
The footage shows the bodies of people and what remains of their car - a pile of metal.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 2 2024 17:59 utc | 23
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2024 17:40 utc | 12
Dear unimperator, and others.
West is not able to provide more, simply as that, at least if data in the public domain can be trusted.
Taurus: public data states that bundeswear have 600 in total of them max 300 are ready to be delivered.
Patriots: production is less than 500 in a year maybe can double in a couple of years. It means 3 missile available per day if all of them are deployed in Ukraine. Do you think they will be useful when RF can launch 30+ German per day and some nasty iskander/kinzal?
155 shells: once again even if they had delivered the promised 1millon she'll it means less than 3000 shell per day, RF is said to use 5000+ per day.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 2 2024 18:02 utc | 24
WION here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9LK0kPd74o
SouthFront here
www.southfront.press
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 2 2024 18:03 utc | 25
length of war...
i thought it would go on a long time.. i guess i am in a minority, but no one can know how long something like this will go on for.. my sense is this is a slow build to ww3 and nothing suggests anything different at this point - unfortunately..
Posted by: james | Mar 2 2024 18:04 utc | 26
@ Don Firineach | Mar 2 2024 16:53 utc | 2
Thanks for that! An excellent—I’d argue, necessary—background to not only the current conflict, but also the history of the run through of both World Wars and all of Soviet and post-Soviet history, right up to the present day.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Mar 2 2024 18:04 utc | 27
@Pacifica Advocate | Mar 2 2024 18:04 utc | 27
Glad you enjoyed it. Historical context always matters to understanding ...
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 2 2024 18:07 utc | 28
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Mar 2 2024 17:59 utc | 22
The problem in evaluating the length of the war was precisely based on the assumptions used. The total commitment of the west, and the total control of Ukraine by nazi's and SBU to the point they can mobilize anyone and everyone and the willingness to destroy the demographic future of that country maybe was not part of original assumptions and everything has changed.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2024 18:11 utc | 29
It occurs to me that, perhaps, the Russians are being generous to Germany by publishing the Taurus discussion. By doing so they may have tried to stop the unpopular vassal government of Scholz & co doing something even more harmful to Germanys' long term interests. I don't think Russia is bluffing about retaliation but the US would be willing to see Germany take this step and risk the wrath of Russia.
Is this generosity likely? Perhaps not. But I live in hope of the retreat of the USA from Europe and the rebuilding of relationships. It will be a long process though.
Posted by: Judge Barbier | Mar 2 2024 18:12 utc | 30
The time to get cracking is when your opponent is reeling. Don't give him time to reorganize, rearm, regroup, reflect on mistake or get better leaders. Kick 'em while they're down and keep kicking them so they never get back up.
Keep. Their. Heads. Ringing.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Mar 2 2024 18:19 utc | 31
The total commitment of the west, and the total control of Ukraine by nazi's and SBU to the point they can mobilize anyone and everyone and the willingness to destroy the demographic future of that country maybe was not part of original assumptions and everything has changed.Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2024 18:11 utc | 29
I agree completely. I am honestly baffled by the mindlessness of the Ukrainian leadership in its prosecution of this “war”—it’s rather like cattle marching into a slaughterhouse without any sort of prodding.
I don’t mean that for the rank-and-file Ukrainian soldiers—clearly, a LOT of “prodding” has been used there—but at the elite political level there is just so much delusional phantasizing going on about where this war is taking the world that one can only presume Hunter Biden’s drug abuse was merely a symptom of what has been going on in the back rooms of the political and judicial (ie: also political) “leadership” (in which I include the Seekrit Police Agencies like the FBI and MI-7/GCHQ/5-eyes and the CIA/MI-6 etc) of the collective West.
Hunter Biden as the enfant terrible of the collective West…that’s an idea I’ll happily sign my name to, now, in the wake of this war.
Big Pharma and the Myth of Mental Illness (look it up and read it) has destroyed every last vestige of scholarship and learned consideration in the West.
And that’s quite the achievement, because frankly there wasn’t much there to start eliminating.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Mar 2 2024 18:29 utc | 32
"It's a relief that in at least in eastern Europe the imperialists are being routed."
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Mar 2 2024 17:03 utc | 4
You think the people getting killed and injured and poor from this war are "imperialists" being "routed"? And this provides you with "a relief"?
what a bunch of war-mongering fools hang out in this bar. I am glad I've never paid my tab.
I like this blog but the anti-war voice gets censored. I don't think my posts show up here any more. But back during "Disarming Ukraine: Day 8" these anti-war viewpoints could sometimes come through. Why so sensitive now?
Pray for this filthy smash and grab war to end as soon as possible with as little loss of life as possible.
Posted by: Patrick Constantine | Mar 2 2024 18:40 utc | 33
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 2 Mar 2024 by 17:48⚡️🔻#Kherson Direction:
🟡In the #Tyaginka Sector, the activity of enemy AFU groups remains on the islands opposite the section from #Krynki to Cossack Camps. Our troops continue to "smoke out" the AFU remnants from #Krynki.🔻#Zaporozhye Direction:
🟡In the #Orekhov Section, at #Rabotino, our forces are attacking from the southeast and southwest. AFU positions are hit in the landings. To the northwest of #Verbovoye, the AFU periodically send small groups to reconnoitre lost positions. Probably they will try to retake them.🔻#SouthDonetsk Direction:
🟡In the #Maryinka Sector, our army is advancing in #Novomikhaylovka from the east and south. Ours identify and hit the AFU drone control points in the village. The powerful assault on #Krasnogorovka continues, our troops are attacking on armored vehicles. The AFU try their best to hold the city.🔻#Avdeyevka Direction:
🟡In the #Orlovka Sector, #Berdychi is still contested. Our forces took control on about 2/3 of it. The area west of the pond now remains for the AFU. However, it is not easy for ours to get the remaining part. The AFU is bringing in a large number of reserves and equipment, probably preparing a counterattack. Whereas our offensive capabilities are limited by the proximity of #Ocheretino, from where the AFU artillery fires from the heights. #Tonenkoye is controlled by 3/4, as from the field is estimated. There, as well as to #Orlovka, the AFU is deploying reserves.
📌 Kiev is making efforts to slow down our advance as much as possible and timely to strengthen its defences.🔻#Bakhmut Direction:
🟡In the "Chasov Yar" Sector, enemy resources insist that the AFU left #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye). Although according to available data, the advanced positions of our army are still located near the centre of the village. It is important that the key heights remain under AFU control, which slows down and complicates our advance. The artillery and aviation of our forces literally overwhelms the AFU positions in Chasov Yar with shells and bombs, preventing them from gathering reserves. There are also battles in #Bogdanovka. Info about its liberation is premature.
📌 The AFU has reasons to bite into positions like that. The loss of #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye) and #Bogdanovka will put the AFU garrison in Chasov Yar in a critically difficult position.🔻#Svatovo Direction:
🟡In the #Kupyansk Sector, the AFU declare that they have pushed back our units in the vicinity of #Tabayevka. In fact, we are talking about a grey zone, where the periodic presence of the AFU was already recorded. As a result, no changes.📌 Interestingly, Syrsky changes the commanders of several brigades and battalions at a critical moment. Officially, due to miscalculations. Unofficially, because of the open requests of a number of commanders to return Zaluzhny. But Tarnavsky, loyal to Syrsky, responsible for the failed defence of #Avdeyevka, retained his position.
☠️ The AFU killed a married couple In #Gorlovka, as a result of a targeted drop from a drone onto a car. In the #Belgorod region, 4 aircraft-type drones were shot down. At night, St. Petersburg was attacked by a Ukrainian drone, an explosion occurred at a residential apartment building on Piskarevsky Avenue. The house is damaged, windows are broken, with no casualties. There is an oil depot nearby, which was probably the target. According to preliminary data, there was also a second drone that crashed in a wooded area northwest of St. Petersburg's outskirts.
💥 Our Aerospace Forces, at night, struck Geraniums at military and industrial facilities of the AFU in the #Kharkov and #Odessa regions. There are no data on targets yet.
https://t.me/sitreports/23881
Posted by: Down South | Mar 2 2024 18:42 utc | 34
Counterattack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and progress of the Russian Armed Forces: the situation in Avdeevka on March 2.
Thin: The Russian Armed Forces advanced from the south and southeast and took control of up to 3/4 of the village. The main part of the combat work of the artillery of the RF Armed Forces is concentrated in the area of the Radyanskaya Donechina SNT and near the ponds. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to periodically transfer reinforcements there from Netaylov and from the Novoselovka First and Uman ponds. The idea of the Ukrainian army in the case of Tonenky is to prevent the advance of the Russian Armed Forces to the west for as long as possible and to hold the so-called. pressure point, where all the attention and reserves of Russian forces will be concentrated.
Orlovka: the village is controlled by the Russian Armed Forces, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine deployed part of their reserves in this direction, which were initially supposed to restrain the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Avdeevka. Ukrainian artillery is deployed partly behind Yasnoborodovka, partly between Skuchnoye and Ptichye in the west, and also between Kalinov and Karlivka. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are little by little trying to carry out counterattacks towards Orlovka, but the lack of air superiority quickly wears down units in “meat assaults.”
❗️Berdychi: statements about the complete liberation of the village are STILL not true. Behind the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the moment is the territory to the west of the pond and cemetery, the concrete block of the former airfield, where tanks regularly jump out, and the intersection of the street. Kazberov and Central. A large number of infantry are being transferred to this area from the north and north-west of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They are probably preparing a counterattack.The village is located lower relative to the offensive line, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still able to work through it from the north and north-west. Ukrainian artillery is actively pouring there from Ocheretin, including 155-mm shells.
⚠️ At Zhelannye station, 17 km to the west, as well as in Selidov and Novogrodovka, additional reserves are expected to arrive in the near future. They, among other things, are necessary so that the engineering units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can get additional time to prepare defense lines behind the cascade of reservoirs.🪖It is also curious that against the backdrop of troop movements in some brigades of the Ukrainian army, the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, initiated a change of brigade and battalion commanders. The timing for this was, to put it mildly, not the most successful, and the decision itself was greeted “coolly” in units with heavy losses.
https://t.me/geromanat/21815
Posted by: Down South | Mar 2 2024 18:48 utc | 35
Looking at the before and after maps is most accurate. Not much progress.
Only an idiot would have predicted Ukraine's success on the battlefield.
Only a ruthless command-figure would have said let's do it this way. Applies to both murderous sides.
Russia had a decade (ten years) to prepare. For this?
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Mar 2 2024 18:51 utc | 36
by Comandante | Mar 2 2024 17:46 utc | 15
I am puzzled by the fact that the core of the Ukrainian army is still held together, after so much carnage got inflicted upon.
I have no insight by exactly who or how, as the weapons influx is certainly not helping that much, even in that manner of a cohesion.
My suspicion is that its entire core now is a foreign run, manned and supplied. Ukraine, Syrsky and the others that we are focused on, act as a cover, Ukrainians just act as a worm fodder. That NATO involvement is becoming official, as we read this, even more in the coming days.
In my view, NATO in full engagement against Russia, upping it in the last 2 month is yet to come open.
I have also a serious doubt that SU-24 is the only plane flying about the Southern Black Sea delivering those SCALP/SS missiles. So Typhoon, or Rafale, certainly is involved, at least under the guise of escorting AWACS. Taurus and SCALP/SS can be dropped from a great hight, igniting its engine when it falls under the certain level threshold where the radar low scatter begins - at around 50-100 m above the sea level. So, it is very difficult to spot the launch. Those missiles can also fly around, taking hooks and curves. If fired, say, close to Crimea it might take around 20 minutes until it is discovered to fly to the target from an unexpected direction and has a short intercept time.
So, it is similar to a glide bombs style we see RF is using, but it manoeuvres .
The issue is that RF obviously knows all that, and has all the flights radar records for a later reference. I don't think that RF will try to argue in front of the UN before they retaliate.
Russia will just strike somewhere critical target in the West and play dumb afterwards.
NATO will know that RF did strike, but it'll keep quiet.
It did happen before in Syria, with Wagner taking down F-15 and in Bosnia Spetsnaz specialists took down French Mirage 2000.
It was never in the media or press. There were other stories placed that twisted those events about.
But, you, as everyone else here who claims that upping the ante by the West is imminent - is very right.
Only a few mysterious facts are missing to complete this puzzle.
This all will end in a terrible catastrophe, at many levels, mainly for the West, but - @ SHADOWBANNED - no nukes.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 2 2024 18:54 utc | 37
Jeez, what's wrong with these fanatical ukie army boys and girls? Back in the old days, every soldier had a shovel and an engineering degree.
Seriously though, evidence if evidence was needed that the ukies have no will to fight anymore, the poor bastards are realising too late what the definition of a pawn is.
This fact of no secondary defence line will be remembered throughout history of how despicable and militarily incompetent NATO was since the 90s and why this cabal of insanity finally came to an end.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Mar 2 2024 18:59 utc | 38
In Simplicius' new article he noted that there is a power struggle in Ukraine pretty soon as Zelensky loses legitimacy on May 20th. Any potential competition to Zelensky has been already branded as Putin dis-informants and agents.
Recalling Colonel Trukhan in the recent BMA interview, he said that if Zelensky remains in his position, it could foment more partisan movements against the regime, so it might actually work to Russian advantage.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2024 18:59 utc | 39
Russia had a decade (ten years) to prepare. For this?Posted by: Elmagnostic | Mar 2 2024 18:51 utc | 35
Russia is cruising towards a total defeat of and unconditional surrender by the Ukrainian leadership. It is doing so with relatively light losses among a highly motivated and strongly determined set of armies which have demonstrated their determination and capabilities at destroying whatever the Collective West throws at them.
Moreover, Moscow has repeatedly stressed its resolution to take on all of NATO in a full-blown WWIII, while NATO and the Collective West have demurred that possibility at every opportunity.
It seems pretty clear to me which side is ready-and-willing for a fight, and which side isn’t.
The only question NATO is asking itself now is “What can we get away with before it’s too far?”
Russia, OTOH, is only asking itself: should we, or shouldn’t we?
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Mar 2 2024 19:00 utc | 40
Macron said troops could be sent to Ukraine. Many other heads of state initially poo-pooed the idea. The Duran and Alex Christoforou have speculated about why many have been saying maybe they could now support sending troops to Ukraine. One wonders about the change of heart, but Macron’s original statement may not be his own idea but a reflection how the French military feels about the large losses of the “humanitarian volunteers” in February. It was reported that Zelensky was forced to become more hard line due to pressure from the Azov units in the military. The same pressure may have been exerted on Macron by his own military, hungry for revenge. Remember that on 22 August 1962, in retaliation for de Gaulle's decision to accept the independence of Algeria, an assassination attempt nearly claimed his life. There was more than one attempt. Mark Twain said “history doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes.” I don’t believe Macron is anyone’s idea of a courageous person but is more of a puppet. Who controls the strings?
Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Mar 2 2024 19:07 utc | 41
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 2 2024 17:19 utc | 7
Evil and stupid usally come together. In fact they are very stupid.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:13 utc | 42
The Ukraine had a good deal going before 2014. They could fence-sit all they wanted and bill themselves as "the bridge between east and west", just so long as they did not overtly declare themselves for either side.
To their eternal misfortune, they already had CIA ops sunk too deep into them with the Bandera revivalism.
Now they are set to be left holding all the bags at once. Paying the price for the greatest betrayal in all of East Slavic history that one sub-ethnos country committed against another, its reputation completely ruined and facing centuries of being on their best behaviour before their neighbours stop looking down their noses at them - and held liable for the entire operation's failure in the eyes of their Western would-be honoured masters, as a scapegoat with all of their failures and sins committed in the process ascribed to them alone in the Western world's eyes.
Betrayal really, really, really doesn't pay. Especially when you think yourself oh so clever and believe you can scam all the sides, you'll just get all the bad outcomes at once.
Posted by: Red Outsider | Mar 2 2024 19:14 utc | 44
Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Mar 2 2024 19:07 utc | 39
And he is the most stupid of all of them.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:14 utc | 41
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:14 utc | 45
This fact of no secondary defence line will be remembered throughout history of how despicable and militarily incompetent NATO was since the 90s and why this cabal of insanity finally came to an end.Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Mar 2 2024 18:59 utc | 36
Hear here!
Moreover, it is the Biden/Clinton/Obama/Schumer/Pelosi junta of CIA-allied stage-actors who will be most filthily polluted by this chiarascouro that the Western Evangelicals have so enthusiastically signed on to.
Trump is their initial foray into politically authoritarian dictatorship. Trump himself doesn’t even recognize this. Nor do any of the politically confabulist morons of Gen X/Millenials/Gen Z’ers who consider themselves “libertarian”: each and every one, no matter how irreligious, will fall into line with the Evangelical dictact about how “society” should be “ordered”.
With only an easily eradicate few who will raise objections against the emerging totalitarian state.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Mar 2 2024 19:19 utc | 46
Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Mar 2 2024 19:07 utc | 39
By the way, the French military would hate to send troops to Ukraine. Macron is taking his orders from Rotschild. Please, do not accuse the French military. The time of OAS is gone. Several dozen years ago.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:19 utc | 47
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-deluge
Big Serge provides a detailed analysis of the current conduct of the war and the ongoing slugfest that might take a few years.
He faults Zaluhny for his what I would call his Colin Powell posture. Big Serge is a warrior and it shows.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 2 2024 19:21 utc | 48
This fact of no secondary defence line will be remembered throughout history of how despicable and militarily incompetent NATO was since the 90s and why this cabal of insanity finally came to an end.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Mar 2 2024 18:59 utc | 36
Why to build defence lines when:
1) They were sure to defeat the Russian army and get back Crimea;
2) Money was more useful to buy buildings in France, yankeeland, UK, Switzerland (Gstaad for instance), etc.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:22 utc | 49
Interesting to note that neither Ukraine nor US (and anyone in Nato) does not produce any new artillery barrels. Russia is not only producing and re-rifling them, but also expanding production of barrels which could double or triple production within 10 months.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2024 19:23 utc | 50
At night, St. Petersburg was attacked by a Ukrainian drone, an explosion occurred at a residential apartment building on Piskarevsky Avenue. The house is damaged, windows are broken, with no casualties. There is an oil depot nearby, which was probably the target. According to preliminary data, there was also a second drone that crashed in a wooded area northwest of St. Petersburg's outskirts.
Those drones came from the West, above the lake Chudskoye bordering with Estonia. There was the RAF Globemaster flight from Brize Norton to Tartu a week ago. The obvious British job, again.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 2 2024 19:24 utc | 51
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Mar 2 2024 18:51 utc | 35
Another antiRussian agent provocateur. Brings nothing positive. Understands nothing. Exactly like the yankees and the ukronazis.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:26 utc | 52
" Utter nonsense, you Nazi-loving f***.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Mar 2 2024 17:59 utc | 22 "
Totally uncalled for and against bar rules.
Posted by: Moonie | Mar 2 2024 19:26 utc | 53
"Utter nonsense, you Nazi-loving f***."
Posted by: Pacifica Advocado | Mar 2 2024 19:00 utc | 38
You are better than that; beat him with your arguments not your juvenile name calling.
Now they are set to be left holding all the bags at once. Paying the price for the greatest betrayal in all of East Slavic history that one sub-ethnos country committed against another, its reputation completely ruined and facing centuries of being on their best behaviour before their neighbours stop looking down their noses at them - and held liable for the entire operation's failure in the eyes of their Western would-be honoured masters, as a scapegoat with all of their failures and sins committed in the process ascribed to them alone in the Western world's eyes.Betrayal really, really, really doesn't pay. Especially when you think yourself oh so clever and believe you can scam all the sides, you'll just get all the bad outcomes at once.
Posted by: Red Outsider | Mar 2 2024 19:14 utc | 42
They face really none of that because there will be no "they" outside of the diaspora in Canada.
The remaining possibilities are:
1) Global nuclear war and we all die
2) If Putin does not find the balls to do it, someone else will eventually come with the proper equipment on him and will carry out de-Ukrainization to completion.
Russia is left with no other option at this point.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 2 2024 19:28 utc | 55
Found this:
We can massacre 30,000 Palestinians, we can massacre 1 million Iraqis, we can massacre hundreds of thousands of Yemenis, there is no problem, but a Russian pro-American crook dies in a prison, it becomes a cataclysm on a global scale. These values are not shared either by the Western peoples despised by their leaders in their majority or by the rest of the world.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:31 utc | 56
At night, St. Petersburg was attacked by a Ukrainian drone, an explosion occurred at a residential apartment building on Piskarevsky Avenue. The house is damaged, windows are broken, with no casualties. There is an oil depot nearby, which was probably the target. According to preliminary data, there was also a second drone that crashed in a wooded area northwest of St. Petersburg's outskirts.Those drones came from the West, above the lake Chudskoye bordering with Estonia. There was the RAF Globemaster flight from Brize Norton to Tartu a week ago. The obvious British job, again.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 2 2024 19:24 utc | 49
That was early in the morning, around 5:00 am.
In the early evening there was another attack and the drones were shot down over the Gulf of Finland before they hit anything.
In that case it was even more obvious they didn't come from Ukraine, or if they were by some miracle launched from Ukraine, they had to fly over NATO airspace for hundreds of kilometers to come from that direction. Which cannot happen without active NATO participation.
The Kremlin has all the casus belli needed to wipe out a few NATO countries and with full legal justification to do so too. But they are pretending nothing is happening instead...
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 2 2024 19:31 utc | 57
Russia is left with no other option at this point.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 2 2024 19:28 utc | 53
Another stupid comment showing the lack of imagination. Of course there are other options. This s-o-b- is really asking for a genocide.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:34 utc | 58
Will there be a peace treaty, or will the Ukrainians just pull back and regroup and go at it again at a later date with the aid of the west? and even if Ukraine does sign a peace treaty will it adhere to it? I doubt it will, for there's far too much bad blood between the two countries now, and the west will want to keep it that way.
No I don't foresee this conflict being over especially not in earnest from the Ukrainian/Wests angle.
German chancellor Merkel lied to stall Russia, and to allow Ukraine to be ready to go to war with Russia, I think the west along with Ukraine will use that tactic again in the near future.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 2 2024 19:35 utc | 59
U have been wrong before. By ur writing I thought it would be over by 2022 but here we r.
I do hope it is over by the end of this year and the empire is not able to spin this
Posted by: A.z | Mar 2 2024 16:52 utc | 1
I disagree. The only unknown which makes any futurology useless has been the continuous irrationality of NATO responses. These people's decision making process indicates our future humanity survivability may not be certain.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Mar 2 2024 19:37 utc | 60
There is a long impressive bridge near Hamburg and Elbe in Germany the Koehlbrand bridge. It is about 3.6km long.
I think Russia should destroy it.
Posted by: g wiltek | Mar 2 2024 19:38 utc | 61
"Macron said troops could be sent to Ukraine. Many other heads of state initially poo-pooed the idea."
Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Mar 2 2024 19:07 utc | 39
I believe it was a trial balloon to se what the European public would take-the Empire gave him the task just as the Empire let Canada drop its ICJ defense of Israel by pledging another $3 billion to Ukraine.
Or perhaps to bluff escalation to prompt negotiations?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 2 2024 19:28 utc | 53
NATO is left with no other option, RF can keep hammering ukranian/Nato army for a very long time.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 2 2024 19:42 utc | 63
Macron said troops could be sent to Ukraine. .....One wonders about the change of heart, but Macron’s original statement may not be his own idea but a reflection how the French military feels about the large losses of the “humanitarian volunteers” in February.
I don’t believe Macron is anyone’s idea of a courageous person but is more of a puppet. Who controls the strings?
Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Mar 2 2024 19:07 utc | 39
--------------------------------------------------------
Good thinking, but words are still cheap. More handwringing to come, for sure.
Sending a polyglot set of troops with gear to Ukraine begs the question of who is in charge. It is clear to where the body bags will be sent.
I take my reading from the epistles of Swiss Intelligence analyst Jacques Baud, a NATO expert, etc. who at the beginning of the Russian SMSO explained Putin's reluctance at having been forced his hand by the planned genocide of East Ukraine. Baud mentioned that Russia was not yet prepared for the large scale industrial warfare that would follow. Two years later he was still right and the slugfest between the two Russian - Slavic sides continues. The Russians will not run out of patience unlike the rest of us.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 2 2024 19:46 utc | 65
You really have to wonder how this SMO ends.......
- Total and rapid catastrophic collapse of the AFU forces ala Kabul 2021?
- Gradual collapse over several months ala ARVN 1975?
- Massive NATO/Uke attack on Crimea and the RF Black Sea fleet?
- Massive NATO/Uke cruise missile attack on the Russian capital cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg with Taurus and Storm Shadows?
Will NATO throw all in for a game of guts or cut their losses and let the whole thing go down in a thump?
What ever, this is a massively dangerous time, after all massive attacks on Moscow or St. Petersburg would result in RF counter attacks on NATO bases in Poland and Romania and the UK....does NATO understand this?
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Mar 2 2024 19:46 utc | 66
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:45 utc | 62
Replace # by . and = by /
Add www.
Complete audio in German of course of the discussion between the German militaries about the use of Taurus on the Kertch bridge.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:47 utc | 67
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:47 utc | 65
It is very interesting to listen to them, sometimes laughing. It looks like a bar discussion.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:48 utc | 68
Vovan and Lexus prank an Australian mercenary already resigned from AFU. They pretend a story that Poroshenko is preparing his own PMC and promises good pay for mercs.
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1764001261123182910
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2024 19:52 utc | 69
Posted by: g wiltek | Mar 2 2024 19:38 utc | 59
Childish reaction.
Russia does not care to target civilian infrastuctures. They are not so stupid as to waste their missiles. As for PR it would also be the most stupid thing to do.
But typical stupid western mentality.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:52 utc | 70
NATO is left with no other option, RF can keep hammering ukranian/Nato army for a very long time.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 2 2024 19:42 utc | 61
NATO is in no state to win a war. For those old enough to have done compulsory military service this is easily checked, just take a look at the barracks where you did your military service. If NATO is unable to win conventionally, NATO will tend to escalate to nuclear.
Russia, on the other hand, has an intermediate level between conventional and nuclear: hypersonic missiles with conventional charges. These missiles have proven their worth, e.g. against underground bases.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 2 2024 19:56 utc | 71
And now Bild and the Bundeswehr are asking X to block the accounts which publish the now famous conversation about the destruction of the Kertch bridge.
See comments #62 & 65 above.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 20:01 utc | 72
What's worse than not having a proper second line of defense is having a leadership which for political reasons pretends that one does exist, and directs the military to operate in accordance with that fantasy.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 2 2024 20:05 utc | 73
"Childish reaction.
Russia does not care to target civilian infrastuctures. They are not so stupid as to waste their missiles. As for PR it would also be the most stupid thing to do.
But typical stupid western mentality."
Indeed, let's be grown up about it, make it Ramstein!
Posted by: g wiltek | Mar 2 2024 20:07 utc | 74
Thank you b.
A most comprehensive and detailed report on that front.
I can only Idly speculate how it ends.
The fact that RF are never going to invade more than minimal required has screwed the Natzios plans.
They were expecting Red Army human waves.
There is no reason.
When the SMO is over. Part of the surrender terms , sorry I mean Peace Deal, might include that Ukraines regions hold a referendum. Do they want to go East, West or stay a neutral rump.
I’d say at best East, or Neutral, lot of value in that! Think Switzerland ! At worst join the fast degrading Europe and get the shit end of the stick.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 2 2024 20:20 utc | 75
"For construction equipment, you need to sign contracts with businesses, but no one does this."
Another way to say this is that the national interest is hollowed out by privatization.
Posted by: Al Havermann | Mar 2 2024 20:30 utc | 76
Tonight, Ukrainian formations have already tried to attack St. Petersburg with drones: a residential building in the north-eastern part of the city was damaged.
#Russia #St. Petersburg #Ukraine
@rybar
Contrary to what the most here think, NATO has a lot of options.
The last attack on St. Petersburg is an example. We can imagine massive, devastating drone attacks, that can bring a lot of devastation to St. Petersburg. The last attack shows that NATO is not afraid, it is a bitter reminder to Russia, what they can do, what they are not afraid ti do. There is no chance that this attack came form Ukraine. This is a direct attack from one of NATO countries. The collective West has spoken.
They are ready for nuclear annihilation and day are not afraid. Possibly they think that Russia would be afraid to retaliate, no matter the victims.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 2 2024 20:35 utc | 77
Red Outsider | Mar 2 2024 19:14 utc | 42
*** Betrayal really, really, really doesn't pay. Especially when you think yourself oh so clever and believe you can scam all the sides, you'll just get all the bad outcomes at once.***
Something that Armenia may come to realise.
Posted by: Cynic | Mar 2 2024 20:40 utc | 78
By the way, the French military would hate to send troops to Ukraine. Macron is taking his orders from Rotschild. Please, do not accuse the French military.Posted by: Naive | Mar 2 2024 19:19 utc | 45
Oh my. Only taking orders now? Where have we heard that before? Only taking orders from Macron, who's only taking orders from rothchild. Please please, can we all just have a little bit of compassion, and don't ever accuse the military or Macron. Of course, many people would say rothchild can't be accused either because hey, the jews have suffered so much.
I say, unless the military takes its shitty beloved Macron down, they should all go to the gallows but not before being castrated. And the same goes for the swiss military for protecting Davos so faithfully. And the entire Nato army, whatever scraps of official and non-official troops of various nationalities it's made of, along with every single politician and doctor who took part in the US military created "vaccinations".
O-only taking orders.
Posted by: Michael A | Mar 2 2024 20:43 utc | 79
Who is going to build new defensive lines? Likely that military engineers would be necessary if only to ensure that they could be forced to continue to work under Russian bombardment. Does the AUK specifically draft civilians into defense construction?
Posted by: dadooronron | Mar 2 2024 20:44 utc | 80
Posted by: vargas | Mar 2 2024 20:35 utc | 75
but nato is afraid, or else they would have attacked russia fullscale a long time ago to protect their investment in the ukraine. thats why they only try those little prinpicks.
"watch, we can hit you, but this time we only try some drones!" "just you wait, our next mini drone attack will surely make you "behave"!"
no. nato in continental europe is afraid. they are losing, and they hope to get russia to back off of their ukraine investment by pretending that they can hit with some drones. most likely british anyways. they think they are "safe" across the channel.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 2 2024 20:45 utc | 81
@Elmagnostic
"Russia had a decade (ten years) to prepare. For this?"
But the Imperial stool has three legs. Each must be leveled evenly. If any one leg disappears too quickly, the Emperor’s men may panic and hit the big red button. That’s not Vlad’s goal. No, he wants peace. On his terms, of course. And he wants a profitable victory at the same time. Which means he must move smoothly, even if it means appearing too slowly. All thing come to those who wait. And the wait’s not idle. No, the fog of war covers a lot of what’s happening at the other two legs.
https://wmbriggs.substack.com/p/russias-patience-russias-victory
Posted by: Apollyon | Mar 2 2024 20:46 utc | 82
Is it not the time for Russia to break diplomatic relations with Germany?
Wouldn't that be a good move?
Posted by: Vargas | Mar 2 2024 20:50 utc | 83
Who is going to build new defensive lines? Likely that military engineers would be necessary if only to ensure that they could be forced to continue to work under Russian bombardment. Does the AUK specifically draft civilians into defense construction?Posted by: dadooronron | Mar 2 2024 20:44 utc | 78
A video on Simplicius' blog showed the AFU serviceman attacked with FPV drones as they were trying to dig a trench or install one of those triangle shaped anti-tank obstacles.
And regardless whether they can actually build some stronger line further back raises the question who is going to be defending them after counter-attacks and forward deployments committed on the current line.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2024 20:52 utc | 84
Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 2 2024 20:45 utc | 79
The founder of BlackRock Inc. just said the west 'should let Russia keep Crimea and Donbass to freeze the conflict'.
Seems the oligarchs are scared they will lose all their investments in Ukraine now. That would also imply the muppet politicians would try to find a way out for their overlords.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2024 20:56 utc | 85
Just da hammer:
If you speak German, highly informative:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/bundeswehr-wiretap-bombshell-german
Germany is desperately begging for arrivals. I just hope this project is dead on arrival now.
Posted by: C | Mar 2 2024 20:57 utc | 86
" But the Imperial stool has three legs. Each must be leveled evenly. If any one leg disappears too quickly, the Emperor’s men may panic and hit the big red button.
Posted by: Apollyon | Mar 2 2024 20:46 utc | 80"
I dont buy that. The ZioAmericans have publicly made it clear they will use nukes preemptively for any number of reasons. Therefore logic dictates, that they will resort to nukes eventually , especially, if they were to lose their dominate position in the world. Of course, some people will say the Americans are just bluffing, well if thats the case, then Russia should call their bluff. However, if they arent, then the bombs will fly anyway. Therefore, logic dictates Russia should just go full bore as it has nothing to lose.
Posted by: Moonie | Mar 2 2024 21:20 utc | 87
@unimperator
Ukraine's vaunted 'bread basket' soil is now toxic
Two years of war has left roughly one-third of its territory polluted, with dire potential consequences for the world's food supply
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-soil-contamination/
Posted by: Apollyon | Mar 2 2024 21:20 utc | 88
"surprisingly weak Ukrainian defenses" is rich. Surprise is naturally a function of expectations.
Posted by: Pym of Nantucket | Mar 2 2024 21:22 utc | 89
The recent news of Russian air defences destroying drones coming in over the Gulf of Finland. Could have been launched from Either Estonia or Finland. The war is widening. It seems likely that rather than sending forces into Ukraine, Europe will use guerrilla or hit and run style tactics. UK planned a major ramp up of these style attacks for the run up to the Russian presidential elections.
Finland president? talking about the need to base nuclear weapons in Finland. Crazies.
A major anti terrorist operation now underway in one city in Ingushetia where a jihadi terrorist cell is holed up.
Another drone attack on an apartment building in Moscow no doubt launched from close by.
This looks to be a likely UK led plan, no doubt along with EU/European collaborators to provoke Russia into launching a strike against a Nato member country - I would assume with the never ending intention of drawing US into direct conflict with Russia.
Russia's intention appears to be that of riding this out, defending against but also absorbing hits that do get through until the inevitable collapse, both economically and socially of the west.
Cuban missile crisis was triggered by US installing nuke missiles in Turkey...
Cold war was about western elites preventing working class revolutions in the west, but by instantiating this war with Russia back in 2014, it looks like the European elite t least have sealed their fate by pinning everything on the collapse of the Russian federation and now they are desperate.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2024 21:33 utc | 90
What is one of the real problems is "private or personal entreprise".
(Today)); The 30 million dollars allowed for keepng the Kiev metro functional, was simply stolen. All of it. The defensive lines, and the money allocated has also disappeared in large quantities. So there isn't any left.
Never mind, all that cash will be transferred to the EU and other nightclubs..... err banks.
How on earth does anyone expect a country like that to win?
Even the poor slobs in the ditches (trenches would be a luxury) are wondering what they are fighting for - as they cannot buy land in their own country as it has already been "sold" to US Corporations.
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The latest theory making the rounds is that it was the British who blew up North stream, by using their specialized divers carried by a submarine. Reasonable supposition, considering they are probably behind the sea-drone attacks as well. They and the French provide missiles a gogo. But of course neither are involved in the war are they?
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One thought about Macron wanting boots on the ground is that - Most EU countries and the US, must have already lost many "soldier-mercenaries", Officers and specialists after two years of war. This must make a rather large group of cadavers to recycle discretely. How have they been hiding the bodies from the public? One or two helicopter accidents won't make up the required number.
fyi
G. Doctorow today:
"....Meanwhile the German authorities have banned the X (Twitter) accounts which initially disseminated the recordings...."
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/03/02/german-officers-plot-taurus-missile-attack-on-the-crimea-bridge/
German officers plot Taurus missile attack on the Crimea bridge
".....This news was commented upon by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who called up the German press to show their independence and question German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock about this plot, which runs directly against what Chancellor Scholz was saying at the time about the inadmissibility of introducing the Taurus into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The transcript of the plotters is available here:
It makes for good weekend reading....."
Posted by: michaelj72 | Mar 2 2024 21:38 utc | 92
Seems the oligarchs are scared they will lose all their investments in Ukraine now. That would also imply the muppet politicians would try to find a way out for their overlords.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 2 2024 20:56 utc | 83
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All they want is to make more money. War, peace, does not matter as long it is a reliable revenue stream. BX is a truly gigantic financial monster. Ukraine? Meh.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 2 2024 21:39 utc | 93
Pacifica Advocate @ 32
Sources are necessarily hearsay but since you bring up the subject I will say the ruling class is rotten with cocaine and most everything else. Starting the kids with heavy pharma products (psych meds) at age 2 does not bode well. Hunter Biden may be flamboyant about it, he is typical.
A good six years back we had a winter vacation in DelRay Beach. Friend's condo we stayed at had literally been purchased on a postman's pension in early 90s. That demographic now gone. New Yorkers sat at sidewalk cafés completely open about snorting powder and smoking crack. You could buy it from your bartender. Worse now.
As the oldhippie I get asked about availability of LSD fairly frequently. All staid solid citizens and an occasional moneybag. My usual response is the elderly should refrain, hard on your heart. They find it somewhere else.
It is become totally normal that salesmen and any in advertising work are users. That means real estate sales and financial products sales, not mom and pop retail.
Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 2 2024 21:42 utc | 94
Wow. I check in for the first time after a heavy work week and the quality of discussion in the comments has really declined. Lots of aimless bickering and aphoristic gotcha quips. Light on analysis—except of course that of the host, which is excellent (thank you b, as usual).
My 2¢, there appear to be three strategies. The first is a campaign in the media to prepare western populations for 'unprovoked™ Russian aggression' in Europe. The second is a campaign to provoke it. The US must maintain plausible deniability, so the UK (proxy-in-chief, est. 1941) wheels out Q to fire gizmos at apartment blocks. Meanwhile in central Asia... ISIS pops up in the Caucasus. The third strategy is to undermine morale in Russia and erode confidence in its leadership: lots of little drones adds up to death by 1000 cuts for Russia. How long can its population endure the uncertainty of random violence?
That said, the Russians have been wargaming this for decades and their brains trust is orders of magnitude more superior than the LGBTI committees that run State/Pentagon, etc. So I'm sure they're on it, but I'd still like to know what the counter-strategy is against needling provocation. Like Iran, there's only so many slaps across the face you can cop before the rest of the world takes you for a cuck.
In Russia's case, I guess the answer is in Ukraine itself: there is an Augean stables into which the Don has been diverted. But NATO's raison d'etre has, is being, undermined. I don't see this being over for a long time yet, at least not without a decisive war followed by a completely redefined world security/governance framework a la 1648 or 1815 (or even 1945).
Posted by: Patroklos | Mar 2 2024 21:45 utc | 95
Fed 24th to Mar 1st, RF MOD reporting over 7000 dead or wounded/dying Ukrainians, that's up and down the front, not including rear hits. Wonder what a route might look like? Someone might have to come and help.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 2 2024 21:46 utc | 96
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2024 21:33 utc | 88
Agree, complements what I'm thinking too.
Posted by: Patroklos | Mar 2 2024 21:48 utc | 97
Stonebird | Mar 2 2024 21:34 utc | 89 "How have they been hiding the bodies from the public?"
Most countries have laws to do with 'classified secrets'. My father in law had a medal from the war in the pacific. When he died some years back, the family tried to find out why he had received that medal. The circumstances it turned out are still classified even to this day. It's odd as the rest of his war record and the very little he would talk about, he was in air defense. Main job was guarding US airfields in NG and the pacific islands until the Aussies shot down too many yank planes and the yanks booted them out. He had a great dislike for the Americans and liked talking about shooting down the yank planes as they returned to their airfield. He never talked about the Japanese and did not seem to have any hatred or dislike of them.
But those french - perhaps friends are simply told they enlisted in the Ukraine military as mercenaries and the family is shut down via official secrets laws.
When a kiwi was killed in Ukraine, the Kiwi military said he had taken leave without pay to fight in Ukraine and about 100 more Kiwi active duty soldiers had done the same.
I assume all other countries will use similar work around to send their forces into Ukraine - their pay still coming from their governments via funds allotted to 'Ukraine aid'.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 2 2024 21:53 utc | 98
Is it not the time for Russia to break diplomatic relations with Germany? Wouldn't that be a good move?Posted by: Vargas | Mar 2 2024 20:50 utc | 81
It's quite possible that will never happen, i.e. Russian diplomats in Western countries will be sacrificed.
If you break up diplomatic relationships and pull out all the staff, that might tip off the other side to the fact that you plan a first strike.
Given the overwhelming importance of striking first and the fact that you are going to take huge casualties regardless, diplomatic staff is a rounding error in the grand scheme of things, and may be expendable in such a scenario.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 2 2024 22:00 utc | 99
Ah, defense lines in the Donbass. Well that was done in WW2 and the Germans have most of the maps, so do the Russians.
As for contractors, all the local contractors have been gutted and men wasted, so importing a contractor.. that has to contend with loosing his equipment and men (or women) is very dubious unless fuel is guaranteed in advance, in fuel containers and then only well out of the range of the Russian heavy rocket artillery, so that just leaves the East bank of the Dniapro.. and the West bank. In between the Donbass and the Dniapro the land is way flatter with less defendable features.. Russia will fight this slowly all the way to the Dniester and Bug until a guarantee of de-Na%if!cat!0n.. NATO is doomed.
Posted by: T S | Mar 2 2024 22:00 utc | 100
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U have been wrong before. By ur writing I thought it would be over by 2022 but here we r.
I do hope it is over by the end of this year and the empire is not able to spin this
Posted by: A.z | Mar 2 2024 16:52 utc | 1