Generals are members of the armed forces. They are state employees whose job it is to defend their country to their death. They have no more to do with politics than a manager at the department of sanitation does.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 1 2024 20:44 utc | 301
I would say this is how politics and generals are SUPPOSED to be related.
However I heartily disagree that it is reality.
Mark Milley is a recent example.
The modern general is a political animal and a powerful one may be more influential than a high ranking senator or cabinet member.

Posted by: Archetypex | Apr 1 2024 21:10 utc | 304

He’s only reflecting the ponderous timelines of the Yes-men. Just the other day Simplicius said he doesn’t expect the Russians to even reach Odessa, let alone take it, for a few years yet. And most here are very content with that notion.
Posted by: flying dutchman | Apr 1 2024 8:38 utc | 192
——————
Those people flip-flop on their timeframes all the damn time, such as making a big deal about FPV drones recently. As if that hasn’t been a factor, that worked both-ways for two years.
Fact of the matter is, as soon the SMO was clearly a longer term affair. Ukrainian demographics dictate the timeline more than anything.
The current AFU “burn-rate” is awful and the younger age cadres are severely limited due to Ukraine post-Soviet birth/death spiral, assuming that pool is “untapped” by recruitment, privilege or flight. Which it isn’t.
This conflict is closer to the end than the beginning on that basis alone. At least on a conventional basis.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Apr 1 2024 21:57 utc | 306

bored | Apr 1 2024 22:16 utc | 307
Set up a fire square, aim from the distance of 15 km, have drones up in the air.
Fire 20-30 rounds. Hit or a near hit. Rinse, repeat. It is not that one needs 200 shells for that. ATGM are galore. Btw. Russians indeed lost some armor. but they succeeded in their mission. That counts.

Posted by: whirlX | Apr 1 2024 22:24 utc | 308

Posted by: bored | Apr 1 2024 22:16 utc | 307
They didn’t, this is Business insider reporting the ISW version from Ukraine, therefore an article that is transparently agenda-driven, to claim that Ukraine can win if the West go for just one more aid push. Not saying Russia didn’t lose vehicles, but the incident did not unfold the way the article claims, neither are its wishful analyses of the current situation accurate.
Posted by: whirlX | Apr 1 2024 22:24 utc | 308
That’s all that counts in a war, period.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 1 2024 22:47 utc | 310

This got to be the April Fools’ joke of the day.
https://thehill.com/opinion/4566466-ukraine-is-not-losing-us-assistance-must-continue/

Posted by: Someone | Apr 1 2024 23:02 utc | 312

How? How is Ukraine doing this?
Posted by: bored | Apr 1 2024 22:16 utc | 307
Answer? Theyre not. Its a complete fabrication. Its designed to boost seriously flagging morale on the front line and amongst western supporters. Business insider is a lying rag.
Regards
HERMIUS

Posted by: HERMIUS | Apr 1 2024 23:08 utc | 314

Trying to cross-reference the Business Insider burble with a map and the Russian MoD daily report it looks like Ukraine lost another Abrams tank, if it’s the same skirmish.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 1 2024 23:15 utc | 316

Posted by: whirlX | Apr 1 2024 20:48 utc | 302
I always liked the design concept, and aesthetics, of the Object 490a Buntar.
https://tankandafvnews.com/tag/object-490/

Posted by: Milites | Apr 1 2024 23:19 utc | 318

Milites | Apr 1 2024 23:19 utc | 318
I had read some of the concepts of the Amarta were taken from a late Soviet experimental/concept tank.
The Amarta was seen in the back areas of the SMO but have heard nothing about it being combat tested.
At the moment I have no Idea if Russia decided money was better spent elsewhere, they wanted to develop or test it further but it went from announcement of large scale production back to a small batch.
I think the Amarta was also designed to be able to take a 152mm gun.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 2 2024 0:29 utc | 320

Didn’t T14 Armata have a Trophy like system? Should be easy to configure it to shoot down drones instead of super fast rocket projectiles.
Maybe they wanna wait till this system, Afganit it think it’s called, is fully ready.

Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Apr 2 2024 0:51 utc | 322

@Posted by: Wisco | Mar 31 2024 22:34 utc | 107
MAGA led by Trump, though, is very weak tea. Trojan Horse type of thing. Or if you prefer, “controlled opposition”. Leading the flock astray.”
I believe that the Tea Party folks turned to Trump after being betrayed and shunned by the Republican establishment. They bet that Trump would be different because he was an outsider. They were right, he did change things up for sure, but the uniparty came together to undermine him from both sides and his agenda ground to a halt. Love him or hate him, he fixed the economy, unemployment was down near 3% and Black American unemployment came down below 6% for the first time ever. Not sure what his foreign policy success would have been if he wasn’t being undermined by his subordinates.

Posted by: Paranaense | Apr 2 2024 0:57 utc | 324

Just did a quick readup on the T-80. It has parts from both the T-64 and the T-72 so I assume a number of interchangeable parts amongst these tanks.
I think it was Macgregor that said the Abrams was not good under current ISR due to its large heat signature from the turbine but I assume the T-80 is similar. From an earlier comment it this thread the info that Russia was using the T-80 to draw fire and expose firing positions – checking the power to weight ration compared to the Abrams, and being lighter, I would assume far more agile.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 2 2024 1:21 utc | 326

Peter AU1 | Apr 2 2024 0:51 utc | 323
Parts. And training.
Brian Berletic, a year, maybe 18months back spoke (somewhat humorously) of his first experience operating a tank. He recounts how his instructor had a Herculean task to prevent Berletic and crew from killing themselves (and him).
An advantage of sticking to the familiar models is that there’s a deep pool of trained tank crews.
I remember buying new cars.~ things are standardised now, ~ but back in the day, a new car could have the wipers/ indicators reversed. I’d spend the first week or so turning the wipers on every time I indicated.
I’d adjust, but then, even some time later, in a quick-reaction / semi-emergency, the old reflex would override more recent habit, and on would go the wipers, not the indicator.
Berletic says you need deeply ingrained reflexive responses in a tank. Changing to a Amarta would need a bunch of guys to train up.
Interested to see what sensible barflies weigh in with.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 2 2024 1:38 utc | 328

I refresh the page, and here’s Karl.
Top tier among the “sensible” barflies.
Tanks, m8.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Apr 2 2024 1:42 utc | 330

Melaleuca | Apr 2 2024 1:38 utc | 328
For the tank crews, its probably harder for an experienced crew to get to that stage than a new crew.
When flying it took me about three hundred hours before I was pretty much flying without thinking. At about a thousand hours, I instantly reacted to every weather condition without think or trying to analyse the situation before correcting.
I modified the machine over time, small improvements here and there that were quick and easy to adjust to.
I only flew a different machine once, and that required constant concentration as I didn’t have a feel for it. That was just on a single test flight. But still it would have been what you mentioned, if I had started flying that machine for a long time, it would take awhile to lose the habits from the other machine.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 2 2024 1:55 utc | 332

Melaleuca | Apr 2 2024 1:42 utc | 330–
Thanks for your reply. I do get a little time at days end when daughter and grandson go home for the night. But that time doesn’t last long! Ta!

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 2 2024 2:01 utc | 334

Peter AU1 | Apr 2 2024 1:41 utc | 329
Drones require anti drones. And the top side armor protection designers must find the way to protect the crew and prevent cook-off much better. Also smoke shielding with reflective micro foil particles are possible good defense. The new research has a smoke shells that should make the cloud dome of 100 m around and above the vehicle. That would require mini radar or a similar trigger. Also what happened to EW module on every tank? Or a mini radar on a drone. So much tech, so little implemented irl.

Posted by: whirlX | Apr 2 2024 2:06 utc | 336

I see Pepe has a new article, “The Sahel’s ‘Axis of Resistance'” that’s OT for this tread but melds with Russia’s Africa policy.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 2 2024 2:07 utc | 338

There are drones that have a net capability already in use in… unfortunately Israel.
I will post the original story about the IDF using them if I can find it again, it was about IDF drones using nets to stop drones.
Here is a story about testing one model, the Sparrowhawk from SearchSystems in the UK. (Alongside other anti-drone tech.)
https://www.wired.com/story/watch-anti-drone-weapons-test/
That tech is already here and in use even though it might be at Mod 1 Mark 1 level.

Posted by: Archetypex | Apr 2 2024 2:17 utc | 340

James M. | Apr 2 2024 2:15 utc | 339
From what we see in Ukraine, most are getting knocked out on open ground. It’s that ‘if you can be seen, you will be hit’ is very much in play here.
And with thermal and assorted optics, it seems most things can be seen.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 2 2024 2:42 utc | 342

@Posted by: Honzo | Apr 1 2024 5:36 utc | 175
“The most vocal ‘patriots’ of the 1960s were pro-government, pro-war reactionary conservatives, but I was involved in anti-war activities with a lot of ex-mil anti-war patriots.”
So I’m curious about what turned the anti-war element of the Democrat party into such rabid war hawks. Do you think it was 9/11 or Obama turning the party upside down or something else? I’d appreciate an insider’s perspective. Thanks.

Posted by: Paranaense | Apr 2 2024 4:12 utc | 344

This looks to be the tube launched flying bomb. A cutout for the wings to fold into the rocket section.
https://twitter.com/CheburekiMan/status/1775017252888478078/photo/1
https://twitter.com/CheburekiMan/status/1775017252888478078

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 2 2024 5:28 utc | 346

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 2 April 2024; pub. 07:00📍
🎯At night, Geran UAVs hit enemy targets in #KrivoyRog, #Pavlograd, #Dnepropetrovsk and #Zaporozhye. FABs with UMPC once again hit targets in #Kharkov and the #Kharkov region. Russian analysts have revealed the tendency of official enemy speakers to exaggerate the results of the defeat of #Ukraine’s energy facilities in order to mislead our command. So, in #Kharkov, despite the defeat of CHPP-5, blackouts in many areas do not exceed 4 hours a day. Also, the enemy’s statements about the degree of damage to the #Dnepro HPP turned out to be exaggerated, although they are significant.
🔹In the #Kherson direction, the AFU attempted to expand the control zone in #Krynki, small groups of infantry launched counterattacks, but the Nazis were driven back into basements by return fire. The destruction of enemy boats on the #Dnieper continues.
🔹On the #Zaporozhye front, the RFAF offensive from the south is stalling. Constant attempts to attack in #Rabotino from the southern part are fraught with difficulties, it is in the lowlands. Now our forces are holding positions on the Village street, near the school and the post office in the centre. The heights beyond #Orekhov from the north are of the greatest interest, but this would require a wider coverage of the area by strike units and the highest degree of coordination. The pressure on #Rabotino from the west continues, and our troops are advancing northwest of #Verbovoye.
🔹West of #Avdeyevka, heavy fighting for #Semyonovka is ongoing. Our troops are also breaking through in the direction of #Tonenkoye – #Umanskoye, there they report the RFAF advance to a distance of up to 1 km. Russian units are pushing the AFU in #Vodyanoye and #Pervomayskoye.
🔹From #ChasovYar’s outskirts, the Russian advanced units are about 600 m away. An important forest belt has been taken. There is progress from #Bogdanovka. The AFU are strengthening in the town, turning residential buildings into strongholds.
🔹At a height above #Belogorovka, they report the capture of 3 strongholds, which had previously been the subject of bloody battles, by our special forces. The replacement of our assault brigades and, accordingly, the mid-level command had an effect. The previous assaults, according to field estimates, with significant losses, looked very strange.
🔹In the #KrasnyLiman direction, the enemy is transferring units of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (the backbone of the Azov terrorists) to #Borovaya and #Izyum, which are located 20 and 50 km from the current frontlne, respectively. Apparently, the AFU command is considering the option of withdrawing to the river. Splintering and holding positions on advantageous lines, while simultaneously stretching our units in depth and slowing down the advance of the Russian Army due to their units left for slaughter.
💥Strikes from MLRS and drones continue in the #Belgorod region. 10 civilians were injured. At the same time, air defence shoot down most targets: 36 Vampire MLRS rockets and 5 aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed yesterday. In the evening, 6 UAVs were reportedly destroyed over the Black Sea.
🎬 Kherson direction – another group of guinea pigs (sea pigs) goes to the bottom before they can land. For what and why?

https://t.me/two_majors/21629

Posted by: Down South | Apr 2 2024 6:20 utc | 348

Gilbert Doctorow:
Russia is stepping up the attacks on – among others – the power infrastructure in the Ukraine.
Zelensky seems to be changing his tune.
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/04/01/update-on-the-crocus-terror-attack

Posted by: WMG | Apr 2 2024 6:25 utc | 350

Ukraine is a terrorist country. Hexogen in icons! This is the first time I’ve seen this.
https://t.me/yurasumy/14184

Posted by: Виктор | Apr 2 2024 7:17 utc | 352

So I’m curious about what turned the anti-war element of the Democrat party into such rabid war hawks
Posted by: Paranaense | Apr 2 2024 4:12 utc | 344
Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 2 2024 4:57 utc | 345
What Bemildred said is largely accurate. But the short answer is – it depends on who is in power, especially recently. A Democratic President supporting a pro-war position will get Democratic support, (Libya, Ukraine, Kosovo), and Republican opposition, and the opposite is also true (Iraq).

Posted by: James M. | Apr 2 2024 7:42 utc | 354

“Alabuga SEZ in Tatarstan was hit by a Ukrainian UJ-22 Airborne drone ”
( en.topwar.ru/239615-po-ojez-alabuga-v-tatarstane-udaril-ukrainskij-bespilotnik-uj-22-airborne.html )
But the videos show a different thing, not the drone shown in the photo. It’s a full size small plane, Cessna style. Reminds me of the Red Square plane, back when these paper generals were in military school and their 80s teachers were as dumb as they are today.
They hit the dormitory buildings, not the factory itself. RIA doesn’t know what it was, they only report two drone hits. And TASS doesn’t report anything, it’s not about Israel ( tass.com/world/1768777 )

Posted by: rk | Apr 2 2024 7:54 utc | 356

@Rudi Ruessel | Apr 2 2024 0:51 utc | 322
At first it seemed like the Israeli APS system can handle projectiles coming in from the front and sides, but only if they come in from outside like 200m or something like that. If the projectile, from an rpg-7 say, comes in from less than 200m then the Israeli APS system doesn’t activate. But Hamas have been manually placing explosives on the APS of the Israeli tanks disabling the APS system so enabling the rpg-7’s to take the tanks out. So maybe that 200m zone is no more in effect. However the Israeli APS system can’t seem to handle top attack drones as they have been fitting their tanks with those cages above just like the Russians do.
It looks like none of the Russian and Ukrainian tanks in Ukraine have APS systems fitted. The Russians have some passive drone interference devices fitted, which confuse fpv drones within say a 150m range, but these won’t work with semi autonomous / rudimentary AI drones. Once all tanks are fitted with APS devices drones won’t bother tanks no more, but APS devices are for proper wars, not for this SMO. Having a good laugh over those claiming that drones have made tanks obsolete.

Posted by: gT | Apr 2 2024 7:58 utc | 358

Video in link

Early in the morning, drones attacked the city of Elabuga and its surroundings in the Republic of Tatarstan. Local public pages write about two attacks.
The first attack was on the Elaz-Nefteproduct oil refinery. The second, on the territory of the special economic zone “Alabuga” outside the city, where, as reported, the production of “Shaheds” has been launched.
Public accounts write that the arrival was through the factory and the hostel. According to the EDDS, five people were slightly injured during a UAV attack in Tatarstan.
Footage published by local media shows an explosion and damaged workshop.
Tatarstan authorities confirmed an attack on enterprises in Elabuga and Nizhnekamsk. According to them, the technological process has not been disrupted.

https://t.me/nabludatels/41097

The maximum thing the West needs Ukraine for is to deliver attacks like this on Russian internal territory with the following goals:
1. Create panic and fear
2. Weaken the domestic economy
3. Disrupt supply and production chains (everything, military or not. The main thing is economic damage at the hands of Ukrainians).
At the same time, tonight the power steering blew up a substation in Sevastopol. The level of damage and damage is unknown.
Even today, the Russian FSB exposed the preparation of a terrorist attack in the Russian Federation, which was again being prepared by the Ukrainian special services.
The cargo followed the route Ukraine – Romania – Hungary – Slovakia – Poland – Lithuania – Latvia – Russia, from where 27 improvised explosive devices camouflaged in icons and ready for use, 70 kg of industrially produced high-power plastic explosive, 91 electric detonators and shot parts were recovered to RPG-7.
That is why it is not profitable for the West to give a lot of money to Kyiv for a conventional war, which no longer brings such a profit to sponsors. It’s easier to carry out “raids” like this, which we wrote about back in 2023, and hang the military case on the Office of the President, obliging it to fight only with infantry.

https://t.me/legitimniy/17586

Posted by: Down South | Apr 2 2024 8:40 utc | 360

@DownSouth #348
🎯At night, Geran UAVs hit enemy targets in #KrivoyRog, #Pavlograd, #Dnepropetrovsk and #Zaporozhye. FABs with UMPC once again hit targets in #Kharkov and the #Kharkov region. Russian analysts have revealed the tendency of official enemy speakers to exaggerate the results of the defeat of #Ukraine’s energy facilities in order to mislead our command. So, in #Kharkov, despite the defeat of CHPP-5, blackouts in many areas do not exceed 4 hours a day. Also, the enemy’s statements about the degree of damage to the #Dnepro HPP turned out to be exaggerated, although they are significant.
Thanks for that. So it continues … and Dima reporting shortly that people are now leaving Kharkov.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 2 2024 8:59 utc | 362

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Ermak has completely purged the alternative opinion on Bankova, now Zelensky receives information and analytics only from the Head of the OP.
The purge of the entire vertical of power lasted for almost two years, but now the President is in a complete vacuum, and all reports are first agreed upon with Ermak and only then discussed at the meeting.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/22275

Posted by: Down South | Apr 2 2024 9:06 utc | 364

Posted by: Down South | Apr 2 2024 9:04 utc | 363
Old 2022 video. Please vet your sources.

Posted by: Nemo Ingenting | Apr 2 2024 9:50 utc | 366

What Bemildred said is largely accurate. But the short answer is – it depends on who is in power, especially recently. A Democratic President supporting a pro-war position will get Democratic support, (Libya, Ukraine, Kosovo), and Republican opposition, and the opposite is also true (Iraq).
Posted by: James M. | Apr 2 2024 7:42 utc | 354
Also correct. That fight seems to be over who gets to distribute the lions share of the spoils for however long they manage to stay in office. It was at one time actually called the “spoils system”. They can get quite pouty when left on the outside for too long. The Repubs tend to be less the smooth-talkers and more aggressive in their ramblings, e.g. Nikki Haley, John McCain, etc. the list is long. This has to do with the Dems attempts to portray themselves as “progressive”. If you go back 100 years the Pubbies were the more “progressive” of the two. FDR changed that and was hated for it. There was a general switching of sides during the Vietnam period and the Raygun revolution. They will both work together to maintain each other as “enemies” when threatened by 3rd parties or “insurgencies” by non-approved main party candidates.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 2 2024 10:35 utc | 368

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 2 2024 10:35 utc | 368
A political analyst defined the two parties real differences as this, the Democrats use money to gain power, the Republicans use power to gain money, and both will unite if an entity threatens this. MAGA’s that entity, coming around for a second bite (Trump’s just the teeth) and the Uniparty are beginning to realise promoting people not based primarily on their shark-hunting skills is problematic.
As for the tank debate that continues to rumble on, I’d tentatively suggest some posters are confusing the viability of a platform with its employment. The tank has morphed from one role to another and back again, adapting to its environment and it’s able to do so because of its unique combination of firepower, mobility and protection. The T-14 was either a brilliant Soviet-style deception operation or a future project platform, or a bit of both. The Russians are certainly not going to field a new platform now, this isn’t ‘43 and they don’t need a totally unnecessary Panther or Ferdinand debut debacle.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 2 2024 10:58 utc | 370

One constant throughout this war – the Ukrainian government are liars, par excellence.
Dima’s latest shows a huge line of cars leaving Kharkiv.
Recall that the shitbirds lied and said the power was back there.
Another huge fucking lie from that shitter Zelensky.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Apr 2 2024 11:48 utc | 372

Melaleuca | Apr 2 2024 1:38 utc | 328

Interested to see what sensible barflies weigh in with.

Bugger ! That leaves me out. 😕

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Apr 2 2024 13:46 utc | 374

Sarlat La Canède@375….balloon type devises anchored to the ground with netting strung between. Tethered height can be preset or adjustable. The net would hang below the balloons kind of like a tennis net hanging 30/40 feet above the ground around areas where ground troops and equipment are present.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Apr 2 2024 15:42 utc | 376

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 2 2024 5:28 utc | 346
If it has suspension lugs it was almost certainly air dropped. If the body was designed to snugly fit a 300mm launch tube it logically shouldn’t fit with lugs attached, unless it also requires a sabot in that case, which would be kludgy.
An image search on “UMPB D-30SN” shows that the lugs are on the opposite side to the wings so it’s not clear which variant that is. I can’t find a wreckage photo of a model that definitely doesn’t have suspension lugs but the design goes out of its way to have a purely circular profile without suspension lugs, so should fit a circular launch tube.
Reports seem to often be mixing up this UMPB with efforts to repurpose FAB-250s as the warhead of Tornado-S rockets, these appear to be distinct projects, Also, it’s not clear whether UMPB uses a rocket or jet engine as a range extender – might be either or none depending on mission and availability.

Posted by: anon2020 | Apr 2 2024 15:59 utc | 378

Milites | Apr 2 2024 10:58 utc | 370
You can see Armata BMP firing here. It is pretty worn out, as it looks. Funny clip never the less. Very symbolic.
They were testing Armata platforms pretty intensively – issues are still there, followed up by the situation on the ground, meaning drones.
I agree that perhaps Armata was not the entirely sincere development, but you also rightly write about the role of the tank today. What I do not understand is the expected intensity as in a combined armored push.
In the Balkan wars, even when big ops were active to a plan, rarely more than 5 tanks were attacking together, more like 3 BMPs and 2 M-84. Only a few times there were more than 30 tanks mixed with a BMPs, in a formation.
A very simple Armbrust could easily defeat tracks, wheels and guns on Yugoslav M-84 and T-55 was the only one succumbing to it fully. Croats used to shoot a gun tubes on tanks with M-60 82 mm recoilless gun, from about 200m-600m and had a very high success rate.
But Croatia and Bosnia wars were a close combat ops. Terrain is a bitch there, and every hilly rocky forest is ideal for an ambush. Tanks were used mostly to terrify local unwanted ethnicity. Earth shakes, when tanks go, people flee. Also the tank shells one cannot hear incoming, as an artillery and mortar ones. Counter-artillery radars often do not register tank fire.
What I have seen online, so far, was far from the expected 100 tanks, BMPs and Terminators holding the line and progressing. With infantry following along and a few hours long ranged artillery preparation. Russians call this “soft plow”. What I saw was far from holding the line or frontal assaults. Mainly following the roads and maneuvering. Not a combination of anything.
So, I would also speculate that Russians are trying some new attacking tactics through the mine fields, that might be costly in a short run, but profitable in a long one, as they correct mistakes along and add elements to it.
But the tank – is still a king and here to stay. It is ideal for reinforcing the boots on the ground, much more convincing than the air support or anything of that sort.
Only a 12 years ago, average everyday drone that carries 5 kg cargo at 10 km was a dream, not because of weak motors, but battery wise. With better batteries, and a range and a load multiplied, but that is last 6-7 years where it get better.
FPV drones are just a personal shell delivery, but in a EW contested space, I think, not as reliable as 152 mm, 203 mm and 300 mm artillery that works overtime in a hundreds or a thousands. I would think, that about 1/3 targets are achieved in a drone warfare now in a comparison on 1/2 a year ago. Swarm attacks probably being the most dangerous, but never seen one on video. The trend of neutering drones will be rapidly accelerating, probably ending in a blockade of the certain heights and distances. It is an unstable warfare medium. Shells and missiles are still proven battlefield deterrence.
Armor in a big number assaults overwhelms drones – say out of 50 tanks 35 would always break through. So drones, yes, cool and interesting but, it is a fascination with a televised war close and personal.
I have not seen in any video out there more than 2 MRLS loads, on the same area. .
Wake me up when 20 Tornados and Grads do the show, or 50 Msatas or Akatsiyas concentrate on an area.

Posted by: whirlX | Apr 2 2024 19:59 utc | 380

Posted by: whirlX | Apr 2 2024 19:59 utc | 380
Spot on, the irony is, if you had a WW2 Guards tank division now, you’’d probably shatter the front line due to the simple reason of numbers. Modern anti-tank weapons are comparatively bulky, especially the ATGM’s, so not many are carried and drones only work if you can channel the attacking force, think of them as mobile aerial mines, so 3-400 T-34’s plus SPG’s would simply overwhelm the Ukrainians. Even though casualties would be horrific for the lead regiments, there’s always more behind and at the end of the day a mobile 85-122mm in amongst your rear lines is not a nice proposition.
As for drones they have been massively hyped in this war by both sides, with highly edited footage suggesting they are one shot one kill weapons, which is disproved by the number of vehicles they actively destroy. Same with any weapon system that makes the media’s hit parade. I’d venture most infantry casualties are by mortars, mines, snipers, AGL’s and machine guns, and most vehicle ‘kills’ are due to mines, LAW/MAW’s and ATGM’s, artillery and direct tank fire.
Like all wars we won’t understand what we are seeing for years to come, rather like watching the evening TV highlights of a match you’ve watched live that afternoon, to see what really went on.
As for the tank, I think technology will transform it into a mobile gun/missile system that will only use direct fire in specialised circumstances. Then again, with active, multi-spectrum camouflage and active and passive defences, who knows, go back to punching holes in armoured things and crushing squishy things!
The tactics the Russians seem to suggest they are beginning to employ the third stage of their Cold-War advance to contact drills, committing an entire battalion, not just a reinforced platoon or company. These attacks also seem to be having far more success than last year, so something has definitely shifted in both sides correlation of forces, hence the piece in the Hill, by Farkas, denying that fact.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 0:39 utc | 382

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Apr 3 2024 6:10 utc | 383
Most FPV drone attacks seem to make linear attacks, often trying to match the targets vector, so fitting 180 degree arc netting, full-spectrum, rapid-maturing obscurants would not be hard. The radar sensors for APS (Active Protection Systems) are calibrated to detect projectiles moving at 100’s of metres a second, so 150 Kph drones should be easy.
There’s also a weight issue that favours the target, in that every counter measure forces the drone manufacturers to respond, which invariably adds weight and therefore lessens range or increases the target profile. Case in point: Milan was a highly mobile, compact, ATGW system, but due to Soviet counters: smoke projectors, reactive armour, increased engagement ranges, it had to fire heavier, longer ranged. stand-off probe, then tandem charge missiles, whilst mounting bulky TI optics. It’s targets; however, were largely unaffected, in fact mounting composite armour arrays that reduced weight, whilst being fitted with ever-evolving reactive armours. This in turn forced more modifications, so Milan 1 weighed in at 16-17 kg, and Milan 3 is approximately 7-8 kg’s heavier.
I’ll say it again, the SMO is the Golden Age of drones, and their impact will considerably lesson as their target platforms start deploying ever-more sophisticated defence mechanisms, moving from ad-hoc field modifications to standardised kits and finally organic defences, with SOP’s and eventually doctrines matching this evolutionary track. The danger for the Ukrainians is their reliance on drones could be exploited with devastating effect if Russia launched an offensive with vehicles that were largely immune to their effects. As a Milan commander said to me, ‘what happens when my gunners hit their targets but they aren’t destroyed, what then?

Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 9:33 utc | 384

Anyhow, just my musings on the subject, and I’m sure competent military engineers would have considered this type of anti-drone defence.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Apr 3 2024 6:10 utc | 383
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Flying submarine nets, a concept waiting to be born.
I am in favor of quickly rechargeable laser taps (directed ebergy) with autonomous targeting. Hard on flying wildlife. The US Aegis AN/SPY-1 radars had to detuned after trying to kill off the bees over Lebanon.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 3 2024 10:59 utc | 386

2 points based on reading through this thread.
1. The answer to drones will be anti drone drones And then anti anti drone drone etc … each one bigger or smaller than the last until they are flying swarms – like flies above a battlefield of dead..
2. Re : Tanks and MacGregor
I used to give the stentorian wind bag some credence at the beginning when he seemed to be spouting contrary opinion of the SMO. Then his nonsense about the big arrows turned me off him a bit as it seemed he was trying to goad the RF into such folly.
Finally I gave up on the old fart over Depleted Uranium shells being deployed.
He had claimed using them himself in Iraq ! And considered them to be totally safe for after effects and long term toxicity! When there is plenty of proof that they are not.
No regrets about that fake war on fake WMD and his pride in being part of that destruction trail in the MENA and Afghanistan- just another imperial mercenary lackey.
Yup it turned out he was just a pig in a poke and not the real deal. Same goes for Napolitano and various other such talking heads who were just posturing for the fake election season – their main interest is batting for Republicans while calling the Democrats ‘Marxists’ when there is not any difference to the majority of USAians or the rest of the world.
Contrived, controlled Opposition is all.
DU not toxic! What a Git. Eff him.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 3 2024 12:35 utc | 388

Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 3 2024 12:35 utc | 388
I won’t address the DU issue because I’ve heard diametrically opposite scientific evidence, but as for MacGregor he is only viewing the situation from a perspective fashioned by his doctrinal training. For decades his image of the Russians was of the ‘Red Machine’ using big armoured arrows to overwhelm opponents, so he reacts according to his synaptic memory, ingrained during his training and service. I stopped listening because his analytical insights became more predictable, so I used my knowledge base to create, I believe, a more evidentially robust model of Russian operational procedures. I refine the model from time, but it seems in good shape, and more importantly allows me to make tentative predictions that generally survive contact with reality.

Posted by: Milites | Apr 3 2024 14:12 utc | 390