IIR the DPR and LPR formally ceceeded from Ukraine and declared themselves independent states – ratified by their legislative bodies – then they formally appealed to Russia to accept them into the Russian Federation. The Russian duma accepted this appeal and Putin signed it. Then these regions requested protection as a formal part of the RF, and this Russia agreed to provide via the SMO.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 20 2024 21:59 utc | 96

They became a part of Russia in 2014? That would mean Ukraine was attacking Russia since then. Why did Russia and the Donbas oblasts have a referendum in September 2022 on whether to join Russia if they were already a part of Russia from something Putin signed before the war?

Posted by: Cheney | Mar 20 2024 22:51 utc | 104

“At some point in the near future, the Ukies will have no reserves left to plug holes and the front will start to collapse. That’s what the Europeans are really scared of, a general military collapse and quite possibly individual generals doing deals with the Russians – including for Odessa. The Russians must take Odessa to maintain control of the Black Sea and save Transnistria. The US is already starting to build a huge military base just across the border in Romania….
“I expect a continual steady intensification of the Russian attacks until the Ukies break, that day may not be far away.”
Posted by: Roger | Mar 20 2024 22:02 utc | 97
The Russians lose strategically in the SMO if they don’t take Odessa. They should take Kharkov as well but its optional.
I predicted the line would be broken by August as I thought Adeevka [sic] would have take longer-my new estimate in ennd of May early June.
That’s my too scents

Posted by: canuck | Mar 20 2024 23:04 utc | 106

Posted by: SlowDL | Mar 20 2024 21:42 utc | 91
The correct word is “liberation“. The liberation of Novorossia from the nazis.
During ww2 it is what the Soviets did: they liberated Europe from the nazi plague. Same now.

Posted by: Naive | Mar 20 2024 23:52 utc | 108

Addendum – I believe that in 2014 both DPR and LPR wished to hold referendums to join Russia, but Moscow said no, that they wouldn’t support this as they wished to make a political settlement with Ukraine (minus Crimea) that would solve the geographic divide with a federal system granting oblasts more independence and ability to set language rules, etc – the Minsk agreements were the outcome of this policy. DPR could have taken Mariupol in 2014 but this was not supported by Moscow – probably one of Putin’s “regrets”.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 21 2024 0:46 utc | 110

Interesting interview with Jacques Baud a Swiss Intelligence officer. He gets into some real interesting details on what he was seeing during the Maidan in 2014. For a start those “little green men” in Crimea weren’t Russians at all but a force of 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers who tore off their insignia and defected to the Russians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3blJYEH3Ovw

Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 21 2024 0:57 utc | 112

Odessa dreamers. Take put a map. Look at it.
Now look at the line of contact at the Black Sea. Are the Russians making any attacks at Kherson? Did they abandon it last year?
Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 20 2024 23:40 utc | 107
——————-
It’s not about a map, it’s about the forces mustered by both sides. The AFU is being whittled away, the RAF is steadily building up.
Given the 5x-to-6x population disparity, Ukraine could never win a prolonged conventional war.
Also no, the Russians didn’t abandon Kherson in 2023 it was 2022.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Mar 21 2024 1:14 utc | 114

re “With Nuland’s 2014 invasion of Kyiv, those republics became independent. Later, they asked Russia to come to their defense.”
and other comments. So soon and already history is being forgotten and or morphed. Yet I too make such errors of memory too. fwiw and iirc …
The LPR and DPR self-declared their independence which is not the same as being independent. There was no format under Kiev govt constitution for them to do that. Same with Crimea. No one recognized their independence, only russia recognized crimeas and they annexed it after the kiev/internationally unrecognized referendum.
Initially the “republics” asked to be coem part of Russia, Putin refused, then they asked for formal military defense from russia, putin again refused. and instead created the Minsk agreements
Minsk provided a “form of autonomy” from the national govt for the OBLASTS not as Republics under a new Federal style national arrangement for Ukraine …. than what existed before, which was not a federal system. see USA collection of independent nation states joining together united ….
Putin forced this down the throats of the “republics”, Ukraine, Germany, France and the UN …. no one liked it – no one. So nothings was ever done by Ukraine to implement it…. and no one put pressure on them to do it, instead they US/Nato supplied and trained up a 500K army instead!
MINUTES before the SMO bega, Putin then requested agreemnet by the DUMA to Recognise the two republics as independent entities/states. Once that wa sdone they requested military assiastnce from attack by UKR forces which was happening …. Feb 2022.
Putin formally recognized the republics (still no one else has, maybe nth korea?) and agreed to come to their aid militarily, and THEN the smo began.
Putin Russia still refused to accept these 2 republics into Russia proper, even though they still were asking for this in 2022.
after the SMO went totally off the rails, and getting the DUMA approvals and law changes – then Russia arranged for Referendums in the “occupied territories” incl these 2 still only “self-declared republics” if they wanted to leave UKR and join russia.
In September 2022, Russia proclaimed the annexation of the DPR and other occupied oblasts ……
On 30 September 2022, Russia formally annexed the two regions, in addition to two others. As a result, the DPR and LPR dropped their independence claims, as REPUBLICS
Under Ukraine Law this was totally illegal outside the Constitution. To date no one internationally has recognized the referendums as valid, nor the annexation into Russia as legal, except for Russia.
As far as the rest of world and UN and UKR sees it, the four oblasts are still Ukrainian territory …
Only North Korea and Syria have recognized the Russian annexation of four partially occupied regions of Ukraine.
The UN’s Under Secretary General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo rejected the referendum and said, “Unilateral actions aimed to provide a veneer of legitimacy to the attempted acquisition by force by one State of another State’s territory while claiming to represent the will of the people, cannot be regarded as legal under international law”.
Russia vetoed the UNSC resolutions on 30 sept 2022 which rejected the annexations.
On 12 October 2022, the UN General Assembly passed Resolution ES-11/4, titled “Territorial integrity of Ukraine: defending the principles of the Charter of the United Nations”, with 143 nations voting in favor, 5 against and 35 abstaining. It condemned the “illegal so-called referendums” and the “attempted illegal annexation” and demanded that Russia immediately reverse its decisions and withdraw its forces from Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_annexation_of_Donetsk,_Kherson,_Luhansk_and_Zaporizhzhia_oblasts_of_Ukraine#Reactions

Countries that have officially recognized Crimea as Russian (post March 2014)
Russia
Syria
Afghanistan
Cuba
Venezuela
North Korea
Sudan
De Facto Recognition
China
India
South Africa
Iran
Serbia
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Belarus (Lukashenka recognized Crimea on 30.11.2021)
Uzbekistan
Angola
Bolivia
Cambodia
Burundi
Comoros
Nicaragua
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Eritrea
Saudi Arabia – issues visas to residents of Crimea as citizens of Russia, i.e. recognized Crimea as Russian in fact.
https://www.aalep.eu/recognition-crimea-russian

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 21 2024 1:33 utc | 116

I think that one of the western fears is that a government could arise in Ukraine that would be willing to negotiate with Russia without their participation. Perhaps the bi-lateral agreements and introduction of troops are an attempt to gain a seat at the table without becoming explicitly co-belligerents, and to give them veto power over the formation of an independent government.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 21 2024 1:43 utc | 118

In the English language the term for an army of one country carrying out uninvited hostile action on another nations soil is called an “invasion”. It’s not a judgement … it has nothing to do with international law … it’s just what you call it.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 21 2024 0:48 utc | 111
Regardless of your mastery of the English language, there are specific terms that public international law does use to define varying types of combat.
Technically, the Russians were invited – by the people of the Donbas, who according to the Russians (although not the Ukrainians) were exercising their lawful right of self-determination. From 2014 to the present the Donbas war was a war of liberation, according to the Russians.
Therefore, if that is the case that the Donbas was in a war of liberation for self-determination then according to Paragraph 10 of GA Resolution 2105: “Recognizes the legitimacy of the struggle by people under colonial rule to exercise their right to self-determination and independence and invites al States to provide material and moral assistance…” to said movements.
Thus, while there is some legal gray area here, by and large, if the Donbas were truly seeking self-determination, and liberation by the Russians, then what the Russians did was not an invasion, but an intervention.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 21 2024 1:55 utc | 120

Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 21 2024 1:56 utc | 121
It’s not “irrationally offensive”, it’s wrong from a legal standpoint. See my above post to you. That comes from Akehurst’s Modern Introduction to International Law by the way, page 517, if you want to look it up.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 21 2024 1:59 utc | 122

Of course not 2014. 2022. You guys remember nothing?
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 21 2024 0:23 utc | 109
I agree … “memories, like the corners of my mind…” 🙂
and the pessimist | Mar 21 2024 0:46 utc | 110
yes correct as far as I recall.
RE
IIR the DPR and LPR formally ceceeded from Ukraine and declared themselves independent states – ratified by their legislative bodies –
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 20 2024 21:59 utc | 96
That is true as well, with the proviso knowing they had NO LEGAL basis on which to make such calls, without prior full agreement by the Kiev Government thru whatever format was legally allowed … and there was none.
What the LPR DPR did was 100% illegal and could never have been ratified by Kiev. And still is not.
The same as I cannot declare my cattle ranch an independent state after a vote, and the family and staff “ratifying” it.
Morally, what the LPR/DPR did is another matter – as is the long term facts on the ground. The problem being those “facts” are still fluid, as Russia has NOT YET won this war against Kiev, Nato, or the US ….. to force it’s will upon the entire world.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 21 2024 2:11 utc | 124

The exception is when someone else’s territory is being split up and it serves ones own purposes, but even then it is a risk to support this lest the shoe end up on the other foot at some point.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 21 2024 2:01 utc | 123
Yes, again I totally agree with you there. They all fear secession and revolts.
These issues as you say are all “political” and that is what makes “legal” in international law/s usually. What is politically “convenient” rules the day.
What is right and just, is another matter entirely.
My comments were only about such legalities …. and formalities. Putin was assuming his military power via an SMO would be enough to enforce his Politics in Ukraine and the world.
So far that has been a bad call … with no guarantee of success. kind regards

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 21 2024 2:18 utc | 126

Canuck – correct….Odessa is the key. Its the main NATO, really the UK naval base, its the most important strategic port complex, its the scene of the massacre of Russian unionist civilians in 2014, its the jumping off point for most UFA/UK attacks on the Crimea and Sevastopol……
Its also key to supporting the Russians in the Moldavian enclave, it must be taken at all costs….kind of like Stalingrad, it must be taken and held…..
Hopefully in a general collapse of the UFA forces this can be accomplished in the near term….stay tuned…

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Mar 21 2024 2:40 utc | 128

Posted by: James M. | Mar 21 2024 1:55 utc | 120

Technically, the Russians were invited – by the people of the Donbas, who according to the Russians (although not the Ukrainians) were exercising their lawful right of self-determination.

You started by saying “legal underpinnings are important” and I wholeheartedly agree. So lets look at the event leading up to the SMO from a legal perspective.
You said “technically the Russians were invited – by the people of the Donbas” That’s not exactly how it went.
Technically first the Russians recognized Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts as Russian territory. This is important legally because Russian law does not allow the Russian military to deploy outside of Russian borders but they do allow them to defend Russian territory so by recognizing the breakaway republics as Russian the Russian military could invade Ukraine without declaring war or changing Russian law.
Then under article 51 of the UN charter … the same article NATO used to justify the bombing and invasion of Libya … Russia invaded Ukraine claiming the right to protect Russian citizens in the Donbas. They didn’t just send troops into the breakaway republics to defend them … they invaded Ukraine.
I’m not saying they were wrong to do it … I believe Russia was fully justified. Invasion is just the act, it’s the moral justification behind the act that’s either right or wrong.

From 2014 to the present the Donbas war was a war of liberation, according to the Russians.

From 2015 to Feb 2022 it was a civil war. According to Jacque Baud who is a Swiss military intelligence officer they found no evidence of any Russians fighting in the Donbas or Crimea prior to the SMO … it was all Ukrainians. The Ukrainian military defected en mass. They brought their heavy weapons with them.
From Feb/22 on it is a war of liberation for the Russians since they are now fighting liberate Russians … not interfering militarily in a Ukrainian civil war.

Thus, while there is some legal gray area here, by and large, if the Donbas were truly seeking self-determination, and liberation by the Russians, then what the Russians did was not an invasion, but an intervention.

When the Russians entered Ukraine territory by force in February 2022 it was a military invasion. That is the correct legal word for it. There is no law that says an invasion is illegal and an “intervention” is legal. When you hear someone step to a podium and tell you about a “military intervention” it’s just weasel words for a military strike or invasion. It’s something thought up by some Madison Ave. PR firm to make it sound like they sat them down said enough is enough instead of bombing and killing them.
I don’t agree with that. It is what it is and if you don’t have the stomach to hear the unvarnished truth by all means use terms like “intervention” but don’t demand I do the same.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 21 2024 2:53 utc | 130

Technically first the Russians recognized Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts as Russian territory. This is important legally because Russian law does not allow the Russian military to deploy outside of Russian borders but they do allow them to defend Russian territory so by recognizing the breakaway republics as Russian the Russian military could invade Ukraine without declaring war or changing Russian law.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 21 2024 2:53 utc | 130

Before the war Russia recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states on 21 February 2022, not as Russian territory.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60470900
During the war they held referendums to absorb 4 oblasts because it made it easier for Russia to conduct the “special military operation”
due to their rules/laws, if they were on Russian soil.

Posted by: Cheney | Mar 21 2024 3:05 utc | 132

Cheney | Mar 21 2024 3:05 utc | 132
and I agree with you too cheney … the issue was about where “military conscripts” are legally allowed to operate. making 4 oblasts Russian made their personnel balancing acts easier once the SMO goals had turned to shit. irrespective of their moral high ground political framing in Sept 2022 they had refused to accept this for 8 years since Maidan in 2014 and the attacks on the people of Donbass, Odessa, Mariopol etc etc and their earlier requests for assistance.
The details will lost in the noise of the final historical narratives from all sides.
—-
What I’d like to know is have these 2000 French troops really entered Ukraine or not?

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 21 2024 3:15 utc | 134

HB_Norica | Mar 21 2024 2:53 utc | 130
My impression is that once Russia recognized the donbass as independent territories, those republics could then ask Russia for military assistance. It seems Russian volunteer troops can operate to a certain point outside Russian territory but conscripts and I would assume mobilized cannot.
From what I make of it, the referendums and mobilization went hand in hand, and the mobilized would then be fighting on Russian soil.
As were saw, both airforce and small numbers of special forces went to Syria. The bases I believe as part of the agreements are Russian sovereign territory yet where they are in combat there is outside the bases.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2024 3:43 utc | 136

When the Russians entered Ukraine territory by force in February 2022 it was a military invasion. That is the correct legal word for it. There is no law that says an invasion is illegal and an “intervention” is legal. When you hear someone step to a podium and tell you about a “military intervention” it’s just weasel words for a military strike or invasion. It’s something thought up by some Madison Ave. PR firm to make it sound like they sat them down said enough is enough instead of bombing and killing them.
I don’t agree with that. It is what it is and if you don’t have the stomach to hear the unvarnished truth by all means use terms like “intervention” but don’t demand I do the same.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 21 2024 2:53 utc | 130
How you want to classify the Russia-Ukraine war is your business, but there are legal connotations for your choice of words. Not every military intervention is deemed an “invasion.” Look at these scenarios: Iraq invaded Kuwait, the US invaded Iraq, the US intervened in Kosovo, the US intervened in Libya. In 1971 India intervened in East Pakistan, the CSTO intervened in Kazakhstan. Do you see the difference?
The main difference between those two words: invasion and intervention is the responsibility to protect protocol (RTP), whether that be protecting a people from genocide, or from oppression their right to self-determination. Normally, a party to the conflict or strife in a country also invites the third-party intervention. According to the Russians, their actions in Ukraine are a legal intervention to protect the Russian-speaking peoples of Eastern Ukraine. The US says otherwise. They see it as a land grab, ergo an invasion.
Words do matter, especially in instances where precision is important like in law. Just FYI this is how invasion is defined by Merriam-Webster: incursion of an army for conquest or plunder. And this is the definition of intervention (for our purposes): the interference of a country in the affairs of another country for the purpose of compelling it to do or forbear doing certain acts. Do you see the difference?
There’s little doubt that there is at least the pretext of legalism to Russia’s actions. It all depends on context and what you think the Russians’ “true motivation” is. You can certainly dismiss the pretext (which you seem to do) as just that and nothing more, but you cannot simply ignore it.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 21 2024 3:59 utc | 138

To me it seems that tonight, missiles of peace, rain again in Ukraine. I am just a bit wary of some additional non Ukrainian targets. Of course, before major skirmish, it is quite likely to happen, but we will not hear about it for sometime.There was an amount of NATO in the air today, ISR and air cover, as in couple of French Rafale planes, over the Black Sea. If there are two, the only one has the ID on.
I read on some Russian military newspapers online that 1 year training for paratroopers is ready and up to 20k that are trained to do helicopter supported air assault.Odessa and that part South of it to the Danube, is the key of the war.

Posted by: whirlX | Mar 21 2024 4:11 utc | 140

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2024 4:12 utc | 141
Yes, it all depends on context, and what you believe Russia’s true motivations for the war are. For instance, the 2022 agreement may not have mentioned Donbas independence, only Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization. But then, one might argue Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization meant Donbas independence. I believe that yes, Russia wants to protect the Russian-speaking peoples of Eastern Ukraine, while also seeking guarantees their own security.
International law always operates in a “gray area” because it is not uniformly applied. The old adage might makes right still holds. When was the last time a US president was held accountable for war crimes? Oh, that’s right never. The same will hold true for Russia.
Putin has just turned the whole legal argument the West uses to justify intervention against them. If you say the war is an invasion then you’re against self-determination. If you say the war is an intervention, then you legitimize Russia’s claims. We know which side the West has chosen.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 21 2024 4:49 utc | 142

J Baud … in crimea force of 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers who tore off their insignia and defected to the Russian speaking sides. became the little green men
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3blJYEH3Ovw
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 21 2024 0:57 utc | 112
Yes, I was just watching that discussion, it’s very good. from 8 mins to 12 mins They did the same thing in the donbass later that year thousands changed sides and took their armaments with them … there were never Russian troops deployed in Ukr until the SMO started in 2022 and I agree it makes sense to call it an ‘invasion’ because that’s what it was … whatever the reasons or cause.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 21 2024 7:39 utc | 144

re: 2000 (1 macron) of French troops being sent into 404.
I do not doubt for a moment that France wishes to and/or will expand their role in the Ukrainian “Festivities”, but there is another aspect of _officially_ sending in French troops that I haven’t seen yet suggested.
Accounting.
Seems like 6-8 weeks ago, _elensky kept discussing De-mobilization (pulling troops off the front line that had been there for 2 years). Dima (of Military Summary) suggested at the time that demobilizing 35,000 troops could provide the accounting cover to write-off the 700,000 missing troops. Bring 35,000 home to wave to the camera (and to become capitol shock-troops because they would supposedly be so grateful to _elensky for sparing their lives), and possibly to join the Recruitment Squads (as these 35k would have no sympathy for the “stay-at-homes”).
Back to the French…
(1) We all KNOW, that (ironic air quotes) “there are NO NATO forces in Ukraine.”
(2) In Kharkiv we heard some months back that France lost approximately 60 personnel, due to inconvenient placement of same near the impact site of a Kinzhal or some such.
(3) Assume for sake of argument that France has accrued 200 casualties in total (some number < 2000). (4) Send in 2000. Await Kinzhal. Expect 50-100 casualties. Publicly bring home 300 body-bags, because RussiaRussiaPutinPutin. (5) Gullible French public acknowledges that RussiaRussiaPutinPutin are bad, due to COMPLETELY UNPROVOKED attack.

Posted by: retroflecks | Mar 21 2024 8:10 utc | 146

Macron’s gesticulations are just the last burp of a bunch of delusioned people who reek of desperation.
Ukraine battle is lost. They all know it. What is left for them is to save face and to save Odessa. The Black Sea Pearl of Great Price.
Macron won’t send 20K troops because it is not possible. What would be the legal basis to send the whole expeditionary forces of the French army into a combat zone that is not under juridiction of a NATO member ? How many months will it take to effectively organize such a projection of forces by an army who has not done it since Algeria, almost 70 years ago, and at a time where conscription still existed in France ?
And they know that this “Corps expéditionnaire” would be destroyed up to 80% in a matter of 2 to 4 weeks given the current attrition rate at the front lines. Leaving a depleted and dysfonctional French army, and thousands of very angry families…
Pure propaganda BS.
The pathetic banksters puppet is starting to feel very uneasy… The inflation. The farmers protests. The expected spanking at the incoming EU elections. His Olympics starting to smell bad…
What he will do is make a stupid last gamble. Send 2000 “advisors” and “peacekeepers” around Odessa and cross his fingers that Ze russians won’t dare killing them all before taking the city.
They all believed that russians wouldn’t dare killing all the western soldiers in disguise managing the UAF forces. They were wrong. They all belived that russians won’t then dare killing foreign “advisors” wearing their home uniforms and badges as in Kharkov. They were wrong.
Now they believe that if they send a widely publicized force of foreign troops, offcially declared as “French” and wearing french uniforms, russians won’t dare to kill them, just because, you know.
Utter delusion and desperation leading to idiotic thinking. This is all what they’ve got to save face and to save Odessa.
What will the RF do ?

Posted by: Pierrot | Mar 21 2024 8:32 utc | 148

re: US cargo flight through Tblisi,Georgia to Almaty,Kazakhstan
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 20 2024 19:56 utc | 65
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 20 2024 20:50 utc | 78
There have to be hundreds of these flights all the time… doesn’t US have ~800 bases overseas? That requires a lot of logistics.
On the other hand, recall the train-tunnel explosion (to the NE of Lake Baikal) several months back. Does anyone here seriously believed that was the Ukrainians?
The flight you’ve been watching could be legitimate logistics resupply, AND still “accidentally” drop (parachute) a small spec-ops team into the hinterlands of Kazakhstan. Said team could subsequently hoof-it north for “fun and games” in Russia’s underbelly. The border in question is mostly steppe, with the Altai mountains at the east end… a LOT of territory to guard.
Pretty sure this thought has never crossed the minds of the Russians.
“И бойцу на дальнем пограничье,”
“Пусть он землю бережёт родную,”
(lines extracted from original context)

Posted by: retroflecks | Mar 21 2024 8:39 utc | 150

‘German living standards plummeted after Russia invaded Ukraine, say economists.’
As far as Hudson is concerned this is the plan, Ukraine is the means, any negative impact on Russia is a positive by-product.

Posted by: Inki | Mar 21 2024 8:49 utc | 152

I cannot figure out why, while the “collective west” is bombing civilians daily, we doubt Russia would decimate “adversary” troops as she does with her brotherly Slavs’ ones…
From a psychoanalytic point of view, two worlds are colliding:
the collective West, which imposed its own rules on the entire world in defiance of international laws, and has no limits.
Two years ago, it came up against those of the Russian Federation on Ukraine soil. Russia had clearly stated its limits several times. But the West was not listening. West’s situation is exactly like a tyrannical child discovering authority late in life.
For someone without limits, any frustration becomes existential.
Worse: without limits, he will eventually seek self-destruction.
We have a big problem with the pathetic president of my atomic country: he is limitless, frustrated in his very existence, on a path of self-destruction, with the possibility of taking us all with him.
Because for nuclear deterrence to work, we must value life (just like in a Sting song revisiting a Prokofiev’s romance).
He said recently (concerning the French health system) that “it’s easier to rebuild when all has been destroyed”.
C’est plus dur de réinventer quand tout n’a pas été détruit
It seems to me that it’s what simplicius said recently.

Posted by: fabrice | Mar 21 2024 9:17 utc | 154

ZH has a posting up with the title
France Blasts Russian Spy Chief’s Remarks As ‘Irresponsible’ Provocation
the quote

France’s defense ministry has angrily denounced remarks made by chief of Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR). SVR chief Sergey Naryshkin claimed Tuesday that France’s Macron is already preparing a large contingent of troops to be sent to Ukraine. “Initially, it will include around 2,000 troops,” he had said, but without providing any specific evidence to back the assertion.
France’s military condemned the remarks as a “provocation” – with a formal statement saying, “The maneuver orchestrated by Sergei Naryshkin, Director of Russian Foreign Intelligence, once again illustrates Russia’s systematic use of disinformation.” The defense ministry continued, “We consider this type of provocation irresponsible.”
Naryshkin had during an interview with TASS additionally alleged the Paris is covering up the true number of French soldiers who have been killed in Ukraine, fearing that the truth would unleash mass protests by French wishing to avoid major war with Russia.
The Russian intelligence chief hac further said the French military “fears that such a large military unit cannot be transferred and stationed in Ukraine unnoticed.”
He also threatened: “It will thus become a legitimate priority target for attacks by the Russian armed forces. This means that it will suffer the fate of all the French who have ever come to the Russian world with a sword.”

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 21 2024 9:44 utc | 156

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 21 2024 9:44 utc | 157
– “We don’t exclude sending troops” ———————————————————
———————————————- – “French are preparing a first batch of 2 000 soldiers”
– “You irresponsible provocateur !” ———————————————————
In French, there is a saying for that : “pompier pyromane”

Posted by: fabrice | Mar 21 2024 9:57 utc | 158

Someone summed it up very well the other day here — the only correct course of action towards “denazification” was to launch an extermination operation against the Ukrainian elites responsible for the nazification and to do everything possible to spare the regular people. Instead Putin did the exact opposite — genocide for the regular grunts, the elites are not touched.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 20 2024 17:49 utc | 36
Agree with this!

Posted by: Flash | Mar 21 2024 10:14 utc | 160

Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2024 10:57 utc | 164

Colleagues, we have to correct you. Our source in the Office of the President said that Zelensky and Yermak took the possibility of freezing the war according to Erdogan’s scheme very seriously.
After the loss of Avdiivka, in a situation with a delay in American assistance, the conditions proposed by Turkey could be quite called acceptable: Ukraine does not officially recognize any territorial gains of the Russian Federation, the status of Crimea is not mentioned in the document, Ukraine receives security guarantees and can join the EU.
But the main thing is that the Russian Federation, according to Istanbul-2, by 2040 must again, under international control, hold referendums with residents of four regions on the question of which country they want to live in.
In fact, the conditions of Istanbul-2 are no worse for Zelensky than the conditions of the first Istanbul and allow him to retain power. Ermak and the OP technologists considered that the failure to reach the 1991 borders could be attributed to weakened assistance from partners. Thus, Bankova would be able to present Istanbul-2 approximately as Poroshenko once “sold” the Minsk agreements – as an agreement that would allow Ukraine to gain strength at a critical moment.
The truth is that peace was close, but at the last moment the United States came out strongly against such approaches to the peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. In this situation, the “gray eminence” Ermak had to give in to the White House, but Bankovaya was able in return to negotiate from the Biden administration the allocation of urgent assistance in the amount of $300 million in urgently needed military support.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/22105

Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2024 10:59 utc | 162

🇷🇺🤝🇫🇷 The Russian Armed Forces will destroy all French soldiers who appear on Ukrainian soil – State Duma deputy speaker Pyotr Tolstoy to French channel BFM TV.
“The idea of sending French soldiers to Ukraine will end with coffins covered with the French flag arriving at Orly airport. And it won’t be Macron who will come to pick them up. The French must understand the consequences, that’s all,” the MP said in an interview with French TV.
“We will kill all French soldiers who come to Ukrainian soil,” said the deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma.
“You, the French, who want to send soldiers to Odessa, are provoking World War III,” Tolstoy added.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/92022

Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2024 11:05 utc | 164

watcher | Mar 21 2024 9:37 utc | 158
Intervention is a good term.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 21 2024 11:21 utc | 166

@the pessimist | Mar 21 2024 1:08 who wrote:

Actually, the exact path that was followed and its legal underpinnings are important – not simply a semantic exercise.
Compared to what was done to Yugoslavia and the attempt to designate Kosovo a separate legal entity without a referendum, Russia acted in accordance with the rules – such as they are.
Legal definitions of words are not necessarily coincident with ‘common’ usage and meanings.
Russia and Serbia have not accepted Kosovo as a legal state, in part based upon the deficient legal process that was followed in its creation. Of course they also have political reasons for withholding recognition.
Similarly, Crimea, DPR, LPR, Zaporizhizhia, and Kherson are not recognized as part of Russia – not because legal procedures were not followed, but for political reasons. Like the US not recognizing Maduro as president of Venezuela for political reasons, not legal ones.

My interpretation of what the pessimist tried to say, with CAPS and [comments] by LongCovid.
Actually, the EXACT PATH that was followed and its LEGAL underpinnings are important – [it’s] not simply a semantic exercise. [LongCovid: SECONDED.]
CONTRARY to what was done to Yugoslavia and the attempt to designate Kosovo a separate legal entity WITHOUT A REFERENDUM, Russia acted IN ACCORDANCE with the rules – such as they are.
(… Legal definitions of words are NOT NECESSARILY COINCIDENT with ‘COMMON’ usage and meanings … ) [LongCovid: OK, but irrelevant]
Russia and Serbia have not accepted Kosovo as a legal state, BECAUSE of the DEFICIENT LEGAL PROCESS that was followed in its creation.
(… Of course they also have POLITICAL [?] REASONS for withholding recognition …)
[LongCovid: Irrelevant — all political reasons are ALWAYS political]
CONTRARY to that, Crimea, DPR, LPR, Zaporizhizhia, and Kherson are not recognized [by whom?] as part of Russia NOT because legal procedures were not followed, but for POLITICAL REASONS [LongCovid: Whatever, see previous].
(… Like the US not recognizing Maduro as president of Venezuela for ‘POLITICAL’ reasons, not LEGAL ones …) [LongCovid: Irrelevant, see previous.]

Posted by: LongCovid | Mar 21 2024 11:43 utc | 168

Douglas MacGregor lays the US plan in Ukraine. Zelensky will flee to Lwow and there insist rump Ukraine becomes part of Nato.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 21 2024 8:22 utc | 150
Whaaaat? Just walk away from, surrender, Kiev to Russia? Hardly. RF doesn’t “want” Kiev. It just wants it run by a democratic Rada of neutral non-Banderans. And Kievans don’t want to be Russian, or ruled by some proxy of the Kremlin. It’s a farcical fantasy. Besides, I doubt that even the Lvovians would harbour Zelensky after this fiasco of his! He’s lampost decoration.
The whole concept of “moving the captital to West Ukraine” would be a massive admission of strategic loss for US/UKR … especially without a fight. Laughable. Just not gunna happen.
I used to think McGregor always knew what he was talking about. But nowadays he says a lot of really inane shit. I’ve been trying to figure his underlying game:
1. Short term, angling for a top job in Trump’s regime come Dec.
2. Long term, fancies his chances as President AFTER Trump. There are so many saying “McGregor for Pres, McGregor for Pres”. Tucker Carlson is a yuge fanboy.
3. In the last few months, since taking the CEO of his new organisation “Our Country-Our Choice”, (I’d say a template for some new Independent Party come 2028), he’s been sounding a LOT MORE statesmanlike rather than just a retired army pundit. Now has a political opinion ON EVERYTHING.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 21 2024 11:52 utc | 170

🇷🇺🇺🇦 We received information about another target hit in Kiev. We are talking about the largest Ukrainian online store ROZETKA, whose extensive chain of warehouses and logistics was also used for storing and transporting military cargo.
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1770784763730669645

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 21 2024 12:11 utc | 172

Why are EU elites appearing as more zealous supporters of Ukraine then US elite that started the show?

Posted by: vargas | Mar 21 2024 12:31 utc | 174

Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Mar 21 2024 11:49 utc | 172
Weeb Union posted a video 23 hours ago. He hasn’t been posting updates as frequently as Dima, but I prefer his work to the latter as Dima has been getting over his skis a lot lately. Dima really fell for the fake Ukrainian Tik-Tok border videos.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 21 2024 12:54 utc | 176

by: Down South | Mar 21 2024 10:57 utc | 164
“According to the source, the proposal of Istanbul-2 was rejected by the Ukrainian side.”
Even now, such a radically pro-NATO proposal is rejected by the imperial handlers of the Kiev regime. Their belief in total victory still runs strong.
Well it’s a good thing they rejected it instead of fake-sincerely accepting it, thereby putting the ball in Putin’s court.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Mar 21 2024 13:10 utc | 178

Mario@168….it’s a family thing, any rising replacement is a puppet. Control is passed through family ties, peerage, not outsider ascension.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 21 2024 13:29 utc | 180

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 21 2024 13:29 utc | 183
If the House of Windsor didn’t exist, the basis for the special relationship between the USA and UK – Canada – would no longer exist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_union

Posted by: hh | Mar 21 2024 14:01 utc | 182

“As far as the rest of world and UN and UKR sees it, the four oblasts are still Ukrainian territory …”
In that case, Zelensky is “killing his own people”, which the US uses, when convenient, to attack and destroy other countries. Cases in point, Libya and Syria.
But when it comes to the Ukraine, they provide the weapons, the training, and the ISR. Plus, the Democrats impeached Trump in 2019 on the charge that he was holding up weapons to the Ukraine. Weapons they were using to “kill their own people”.
Hypocrisy much?

Posted by: wagelaborer | Mar 21 2024 14:14 utc | 184

3 : WEALTH OUT OF THE WOE AND SWELTER OF EUROPE
BUT it is not only in the matter of her population that
America has good cause to ponder her position.
America took part in the World War, entering the conflict in April, 1917, when it was 2 years and 8 months old.
Before coming in, she had, as a powerful neutral, the source of most important foods and war materials, made much war profit.
War profit is, we know, quite legitimate, whether derived from the sufferings of our own or another nation, but the Americans, as has been often pointed out, are an idealistic people, and President Hoover, a man of just and generous spirit, reminded America that duties and responsibilities went with extravagant war gains.
On February 1st, 1917, two months before America declared war, he uttered a prophecy which has been abundantly fulfilled:

America will be rich, prosperous and wealthy as the result of this war.
We shall have made untold millions of this wealth out of the woe and swelter of Europe. The money which has come to us from these people is money in trust, and unless America recognises this trust she will pay dearly and bitterly for its possession.

Fabulous profits accrued to American contractors during and after those thirty-two months of warfare which preceded this utterance.
Britain sold out her dollar securities to pay her American bills, and she borrowed from America to help her European Allies. The Allies also borrowed directly from America.
In 1920 the borrowing account stood thus :
Million £
Lent by Britain to France, Italy, Belgium, Russia, etc. 1,850
Lent by America to Britain, France, Italy, Belgium, etc. 1,984
Lent by America to Britain only .. .. .. 866
So that Britain lent far more to her Allies than she borrowed from America ; she would have had no cause to borrow from America if she had not so lent.
This did not prevent Mr. Mellon, as Secretary of the United States Treasury, in stating publicly (1926) that

“ England borrowed a large part of the War Debt for purely commercial as distinguished from War purposes.”

That was not a just statement, but it is true, and should be recorded here, that American financial aid was of very great importance to the Allies.
The War Debts are an evil which burden the life of Europe and form a constant source of ill-will making for war. They have been “ funded ” (as the formalization of a State debt is termed) and astounding agreements have been made pledging heavy payments by Europe to America for two generations.
The discourteous wordy warfare at the Hague in 1929 was symptomatic of the disastrous effect of the agreement upon international relations; many of the articles and cartoons relating to that unfortunate affair breathed hate, contempt and resentment.
The British public was led to believe that, to quote a phrase actually used, Britain had become the “ milch
cow of Europe.” In each disputing country the popular national view was very much of the same order. Each looks upon the formalized debt as an unjust burden, and each has good reason to do so.

Can War Be Averted? (1931)
by Leo George Chiozza Money
https://archive.org/details/Money-CanWarBeAverted1931/page/n174/mode/1up
https://ia600103.us.archive.org/5/items/Money-CanWarBeAverted1931/MONEYL.C.-Can_War_Be_Averted_1931.pdf#page=175

Posted by: hh | Mar 21 2024 14:26 utc | 186

hh@189…the Mammon thing, nice post. That’s really what it all boils down to, the money.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 21 2024 14:47 utc | 188

Posted by: hh | Mar 21 2024 14:26 utc | 189
“And while the UK dutifully pays off its World War II debts, those from World War I remain resolutely unpaid. And are by no means trifling. In 1934, Britain owed the US $4.4bn of World War I debt (about £866m at 1934 exchange rates). Adjusted by the Retail Price Index, a typical measure of inflation, £866m would equate to £40bn now, and if adjusted by the growth of GDP, to about £225bn.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/4757181.stm
What’s a little debt between friends ?

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Mar 21 2024 14:48 utc | 190

Even now, such a radically pro-NATO proposal is rejected by the imperial handlers of the Kiev regime. Their belief in total victory still runs strong.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Mar 21 2024 13:10 utc | 181
“They” don’t exist. “They” are actors. In the lastest visit in Ukr, yesterday I think, Sullivan’s message was that Russia has failed or lost or something like that, didn’t say what, but that was the message of the meeting. These talks about negotiations are for nato propaganda, keep their own losers calm, but in 1-2-3 years the ukros will be dead, euroidiots poor and angry, and the forced kamikaze purge will spread in EU. If no logistics were needed for ukros, why some people believe nato plans logistics for nato “troops”? The most fun will probably happen in Germany, high energy cost is not the only reason large companies already move to US and China, they won’t have workers anymore, it’s Africa time.

Posted by: rk | Mar 21 2024 15:00 utc | 192

An intervention is when you act to change or interfere with something. Russia certainly intervened in Ukraine … they intervened by mounting an invasion.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 21 2024 0:48 utc | 113
Intellectuals arguing semantics. For the “street smart” folks, we call it a “bitch slap” to the NAZI bullies. Which they richly deserve. Hope this helps you sort out your language squabble.

Posted by: Cea Clearly | Mar 21 2024 15:05 utc | 194

Those French rifles brought into Ukraine will be valuable.
“Never fired, dropped once” will be the marketing schtick on the Russian market.
The surrender monkeys never learn

Posted by: JoeDontSurf | Mar 21 2024 15:38 utc | 196

Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Mar 21 2024 11:49 utc | 172
No problem

Posted by: Down South | Mar 21 2024 15:43 utc | 198

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 21 2024 15:01 utc | 196
If playing by the rules is killing elites servants by the thousands, so yes, Russia is playing by the rules.

Posted by: Mario | Mar 21 2024 16:23 utc | 200