Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Back to Main
March 17, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-081
Comments
📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 19 March 2024; pub. 07:01📍
💥In the #Belgorod region, the enemy continues massive shelling. Grayvoronsky and Shebekinsky urban districts, Belgorod, Borisovsky and Krasnoyaruzhsky districts, the city of #Belgorod are under attack. Over the past day, civilians, including a child, have been killed again.
🎯Our air defence systems regularly shoot down air targets, but they fail to intercept everything. Enemy MLRS begin maneuvering immediately after the release of the last missile, and therefore the counterbattery fighting of the RF Armed Forces does not achieve effect. The previously destroyed Vampire installations, as can be seen from the recordings, were hit by Lancet loitering ammunition.
🔹In the #Kursk direction, under enemy attacks, settlement #Tyotkino. There were no breakthroughs of the State Border by enemy forces.
🔹In the #Kherson direction, the enemy is building fortifications in coastal villages. The AFU are trying to throw small groups of infantry on boats under fire from the RF Armed Forces into #Krynki on our shore, and there is a decrease in the quality of enemy personnel. There are assault operations, the frontline is unstable.
🔹In the #Zaporozhye direction, the RF Armed Forces are advancing northwest of #Verbovoye, another AFU stronghold has been taken. There are mutual artillery duels, drones are being used very actively.
🔹North of #Maryinka, heavy fighting is underway in #Krasnogorovka, the enemy is counterattacking.
🔹West of #Avdeyevka, they report on the advance of our troops in #Orlovka. Fighting is going on in the direction of #Novokalinovo, at #Berdychi, #Tonenkoye, #Pervomayskoye.
🔹In the #ChasovYar direction, the AFU are holding a fortified area on the outskirts of #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye). The Russian Army continues its offensive.
💥In the #DPR, a teenager born in 2008 was killed. Two civilians were injured. The enemy fired 143 rounds of ammunition at the peaceful population.
🎬 #Zaporozhye Front, #Rabotino – we have repeatedly helped you, dear readers, with one of the best antitank units of the Russian Army. Antitank crews of the 42nd Guards Motorised Rifle Division. We are proud to meet you. Work Brothers!
Posted by: Down South | Mar 19 2024 6:43 utc | 301
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Frontline #Summary for the Morning of 19 March 2024; pub. 08:08⚡️
🔹On the #Zaporozhye Front, there are oncoming battles in #Rabotino and northwest of #Verbovoye, where the RF Armed Forces are consolidating their positions that were ⚠️taken from the AFU. Both sides are striking with long range weapons. (Fig. 1)
🔹On the #Donetsk Front, fierce fighting is taking place on the #Tonenkoye – #Orlovka – #Berdychi line. The RF Armed Forces continue to press the enemy, but ⚠️the advance of the Russian troops cannot be called rapid.
📌 Firstly, this is due to the fierce resistance offered by the AFU in this area, and secondly, due to the actions of the RF Armed Forces leadership, who are trying to preserve their personnel, avoiding frontal attacks if possible. (Fig. 2)
🔹In the #Kharkov and #Sumy Direction, the AFU has again returned to the tactics of small groups. SRGs periodically attempt to infiltrate into #Tyotkino and #Kozinka in groups of 6-8 men, but ⚠️no results from these operations have been observed so far.
💥 Ukrainian artillery continues to launch massive strikes on the territory of #Belgorod and #Kursk regions, killing civilians and damaging civilian infrastructure. The attacks have become a daily occurrence, and air defence alone cannot solve the problem.
📌 Competent and operational counterbattery warfare is needed in this area. (Fig. 3)
Posted by: Down South | Mar 19 2024 6:44 utc | 302
About the elections of the President of Russia, where Putin gained the maximum votes thanks to the actions of Western countries, which themselves created such circumstances due to incorrect actions towards Russians, who were “humiliated” by their actions, and did not encourage those who left the Russian Federation, etc.
1. The elections will be recognized de jure, but information will be told that they are illegitimate. It’s just a play on words for “pink ponies.”
2. The public rhetoric of Western countries will not change anything in the real political sector.
3. This will not affect the war, but on the contrary, Putin has strengthened his position and we think he will have more requests for the Ukrainian case, right up to Odessa and Kharkov.
It is also worth understanding that Putin held his elections in these conditions, but the “democratic” Zelensky hides behind “martial law” (not war, there is officially no war) – he does not conduct it. Afraid of losing.
So think about who is the player at the table and who is the lame duck.
Our source reports that Bankovaya is trying to speed up the mobilization bill, telling deputies that US financial assistance depends on it.
Another condition for the deputies is that the bill must be “tough” so that it is easy to recruit the required amount of infantry to stabilize the front and even advance at the expense of manpower, which will be sent en masse for assaults.
If earlier Bankovaya waited with the draft law on mobilization, now they are doing their best to warm it up behind the scenes. Conducts tenders with financial groups.
Still, they understand that all the current deputies will be thrown into the dustbin of history, which means we need to have time to squeeze the maximum out of them, then making them scapegoats who passed the historical anti-people bill (but will recognize it as such in the future, first it will help ZeErmak extend his power).
Posted by: Down South | Mar 19 2024 6:47 utc | 303
hmmmm….sputniknews reports a USA Reaper UAV lost its base connection flying out from Poland and had to make an emerency landing somewhere …
EW anyone?
Posted by: Jo | Mar 19 2024 6:48 utc | 304
“Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 17 2024 18:27 utc | 41”
This stupid NAFO AI bot continues to malfunction. Whatever idiot wrote the program seems to some weird sexual fixation with nuclear weapons too, reminds me of Dr. Strangelove movie plot. The AI-bot internet data scraper that obtains the raw data for this AI must have included some old movie footage, maybe a Peter Sellers fan.
All these trolls convinced NATO has some mythical “miitary power” they are hiding in the back of the closet, behind the underwear drawer. “NATO has millions of men”…ha ha ha, too bad they only have the second-rate equipment for a small fraction of those to actually go into batle. The shovel, so popular among Russian armed forces, can be copied by NATO, and they can use garbage can lids for shields too. Or they can take their gender senstitivty training papers, and make paper airplanes.
Try reading the GAO report from 3 days ago on the F-35, and then get a grip on reality: on paper NATO has a 4-1+ advantage over the Russian Air Force. On paper. When you factor the maintenance issues, readiness rates, and actual sortie rates, which are abysmally low, NATO may have about at best 20% of its’ claimed airplane stength that is actually able to enter combat. And that would be almost all American, the rest of NATO has a few 1/48 scale plastic models they can supply. On the first day. After that it will go downhill rapidly, as Russian missile strikes would probably destroy most NATO airplanes on the ground, since they require such long hours of maintenance between flights that those planes spend most of their time in the hangar. After a few weeeks, there would not be many NATO planes left flying, and fewer pilots left to fly them, and there goes NATO’s only area of advantage.
NATO ground forces are incapable of fighting the Russian Army, due to 30 years of budget cutbacks – note how many NATO nations talk a big game, but they have failed to actually increase military production, nor expanded their armed forces. Then there is the issue of GPS, in a real war, Russia would destroy that system over Ukraine, and NATO won’t be targetting anything, since almost everything NATO has is GPS dependent. Pencil in that NATO war on Russia for 2040, orlater, they won’t be ready before then.
On paper, NATO is mighty and strong. In the real world, as they say in Texas, they are all hat and no cattle. Competent NATO generals know this, all 2 or 3 of them, the rest toe the party line to get a promotion, and a cushy job in the MIC after that.
So I think you can rule out false flag attacks now, since the purpose of those would be to bring NATO into the war – except NATO is incapable of militarily defeating Russia and would lose such a conflict. The Ukrainians will no doubt continue to try to effect provocations on Russia, bassed on the assumption that “then NATO will enter the conflict to save us!”. Which only proves how stupid Ukrainians are, again. If Urainians had any brains, they would have known they could never win a war against Russia, and never started this war. But when you are dumb as box of rocks, you are dumb as a box of rocks. I have cans of soup in the cupboard that are smarter than the entirety of the Ukrainian nation.
Posted by: FUBAR111111 | Mar 19 2024 6:48 utc | 305
🇺🇦🇺🇸Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) called on Ukrainian lawmakers Monday to quickly pass a mobilization bill that would make more citizens eligible to be drafted into the military, and he sharply questioned exempting men under 27 from the fight.
Graham called for the swift legislative action — even as U.S. lawmakers remain unable to reach their own consensus on aid for Ukraine — while visiting Kiev, his first trip to the Ukrainian capital since he abruptly turned against a $60 billion aid package for the country last month.
Ukraine is already short of soldiers and ammunition, and Russia is advancing on the battlefield, having recently seized the eastern city of Avdeevka after a Ukrainian retreat. Ukraine’s new mobilization law, which has been under debate for months as the country faces a severe shortage of battle-ready troops, proposes lowering the country’s draft age to 25. Although citizens can voluntarily join the military starting at age 18, and men between 18 and 60 are banned from leaving the country under martial law, the draft has until now protected younger men — many of whom are students — from being forcibly mobilized.
“I would hope that those eligible to serve in the Ukrainian military would join. I can’t believe it’s at 27,” he told reporters Monday. “You’re in a fight for your life, so you should be serving — not at 25 or 27.”
“We need more people in the line,” he said. – The Washington Post
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/91849
Posted by: Down South | Mar 19 2024 6:52 utc | 306
@the pessimist | Mar 19 2024 0:15 utc | 296
In a war of NATO vs Russia NATO surveillance assets are fair game and some of the advantages Ukraine now enjoys disappear.
Sputnik:
Why Did US Reaper Drone Make Emergency Landing in Poland?
A US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone that lost contact with its base made an emergency landing in northwestern Poland, the country’s armed forces general command said.
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 19 2024 7:21 utc | 307
hmmmm….sputniknews reports a USA Reaper UAV lost its base connection flying out from Poland and had to make an emerency landing somewhere … EW anyone?
Posted by: Jo | Mar 19 2024 6:48 utc | 304
I’ve searched that “Mirosławiec” area on the map, it’s relatively close to the sea, so probably not EW although it is possible in theory. But Russia lets any drone fly near Crimea and over Putin’s head in Sochi and you think they care about Kaliningrad being scanned 24/7? nato is allowed to shoot down Russian planes, like in Syria from Turkey or in Russia from Ukr, the other way is not permitted
Posted by: rk | Mar 19 2024 7:33 utc | 308
@rk | Mar 19 2024 7:33 utc | 308
I’ve searched that “Mirosławiec” area on the map, it’s relatively close to the sea, so probably not EW although it is possible in theory.
We don’t know if EW was involved, but it wasn’t likely to spying on its own base.
Sputnik:
It is noted that as early as May 2018, several MQ-9 Reapers began regular flights from the Polish Air Force’s 12th Air Base at Miroslawiec, located 250 kilometers from the border with Russia’s Kaliningrad region.
The fact that it lost contact with its base probably means it activated a pre-programmed procedure to return to the home base. The interesting point wrt. possible EW is not where it landed but where it was when it lost contact.
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 19 2024 7:53 utc | 309
“NATO personnel already in Ukraine for arms control, intelligence operations and military training” (El Pais, Spanish newspaper, 100% owned by the American “Liberty Acquisition Holdings“)
Notice how the article tries to weasel. “personnel” “representatives”, “retired foreign servicemen” instead of “soldiers”.
A date that marks the entry of the first NATO soldier into the conflict is absent.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 19 2024 8:18 utc | 310
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 19 2024 8:18 utc | 310
Putin remarked in one interview that 5000 ‘military men from Nato countries’ are already killed or wounded in Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 8:26 utc | 311
Très Joli feu d artifice dimanche soir à La Courneuve, banlieue de Paris. Bravo à tous ceux qui ce sont mobilisés et rejouis de la belle et grande réélection de Vladimir Poutine.
Posted by: Dubourg | Mar 19 2024 8:27 utc | 312
Posted by: Down South | Mar 19 2024 6:47 utc | 303 & 306
“recruit”
—
I’m reminded of The Princess Bride, “I do not think that words means what you think it means” memes.
That bill isn’t about ‘recruiting’, they are well past that, it’s about collecting\harvesting, and lucy as usual out there cheer-leading other people to their demise as usual.
Posted by: Jo | Mar 19 2024 6:48 utc | 304
Perhaps, perhaps not, doubt the US would admit it if it was the case though.
Posted by: knighthawk | Mar 19 2024 8:34 utc | 313
FUBAR111111 | Mar 19 2024 6:48 utc | 305
“All these trolls convinced NATO has some mythical “miitary power” they are hiding in the back of the closet, behind the underwear drawer. “NATO has millions of men”…ha ha ha, too bad they only have the second-rate equipment for a small fraction of those to actually go into batle…
On paper, NATO is mighty and strong. In the real world, as they say in Texas, they are all hat and no cattle…
NATO is incapable of militarily defeating Russia and would lose such a conflict.”
That used to be uncontroversial at this site. All those war games came out with a Russian victory (and this was before Russia’s big mobilization over the last year and a half), Russia certainly would win a conventional war against NATO at any level of intensity, etc…
So why has it recently become part of the Yes-man copium party line here that part of the reason Russia allegedly “can’t” defend itself against attacks across its pre-2022 border, liberate the Donbass, and take the initiative to fight and end a real war, is that it can’t run the risk of “provoking” a war directly against NATO, because NATO is stronger and would defeat Russia in such a war?
I’m not talking about escalation to nuclear war. I now see a dozen comments a day saying Russia is weaker, the empire is stronger, and Russia can’t win a conventional war.
(I’m no longer sure what to still believe about the hype over Russian capabilities. I still remember, though it’s taboo to mention it now, how it was the party line at the Saker and elsewhere, and a standard opinion here, that there would be no invasion at all because “stand-off” weapons firing from within Russia would effortlessly obliterate the Ukrainians shelling the Donbass, and therefore the Donbass could be liberated and delivered from terrorism “without a single Russian soldier setting foot across the border”, as the cliche had it.
Yet I still think Russia could pretty easily attain its war goals in the Borderland any time it chooses to assume agency and take the initiative to fight a war and finish it. And I still believe Russia would win a conventional war against NATO.
Not that I think it would ever come to that, since I’ve always thought and still think the empire is a cowardly bully which would back down if Russia assumed the escalation dominance it ought to have in theory but in practice has ceded to the empire.
Of course it’s long been the party line here that the US is not a coward and is itching to fully escalate, therefore Russia has to live in fear and walk on eggshells.
But I think it’s those commenters who are indelible cowards at their core and are simply projecting their own cowardice onto Russia, revaluing it as prudent caution through the prism of Putin’s own character, which is ambivalent at best. That’s one of the main reasons they subscribe to a celebrity cult of Putin’s personality. But cultism is never a helpful way to assess reality.)
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Mar 19 2024 8:41 utc | 314
WHY don’t they (US) use these nuclear weapons ???
Posted by: ghiwen | Mar 18 2024 15:00 utc | 232
Because the US is winning hands down. They have Russia bogged down in Ukraine, not knowing what to do next, and no way they win outright or sue for a peaceful resolution.
Russia still doesn’t have a US/Nato security agreement and will never get one now.
Russia will not be able to nail down a secure border anywhere near Ukraine.
Russia will not be able to create a buffer zone between it’s border and Ukraine / Nato forces to stop missiles and drones hitting targets in Russia.
Russia is essentially stuck between a rock and a hard place.
And is a pariah sanctioned to hell by the EU and the OECD west … with restrictions everywhere they look.
The US has not lost a soul of note and this war has been cheap as chips.
What could the US gain by nuking Russian forces or Russia itself?
Nothing.
And that is exactly why Russia should go very very very hard and using conventional weapons and relentlessly bomb the shit out of NATO bases (and other military command, ammunition, intel, manufacturing transport assets) all over eastern Europe and inside Germany Poland and Romania especially and naval and EW drone assets …. because there is NOTHING the US or NATO can do about it, more than they are doing now, where the situation Russia faces will be no worse than it is now.
What are they going to do? Declare War on Russia and go all in on WW3? No. The Americans are too gutless. The Europeans and the US do not have sufficient arms to take Russia on right now. Later they will. But they don’t want to — they want the easy no war RAND Corp version of Victory not a full on war.
That’s why Russia needs to strike now especially with their hyper-sonic missiles. Maybe they are waiting until they have a larger stock pile? Who knows. But if Russia does not strike the US and NATO this summer, and then collapse the Ukraine Military at the same time, then they may as well given back Crimea and the other Oblasts to Ukraine and walk away.
Because at the end of the day 500 million in Europe and 330 million in the US with all the know how in the world behind them literally kills 180 million Russians.
Russia is playing with fire. The Americans don’t give a shit about anyone. They will happily drag Russia to hell if there is no other option … and right now it’s like shooting fish in a barrel for the Americans.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 19 2024 8:51 utc | 315
Of course Russia will not do what I am suggesting because they are too timid and believe they are so much smarter than the Americans, and the Europeans will eventually see reason.
That’s a very dumb move doomed to lead to defeat if that is what they are thinking.
On the otehr hand maybe they got some amazing plans that no one else has ever thought of, and they are just waiting for the right time. Who knows? No one here does on anywhere online.
Me, I’m guessing. Just like everyone else is guessing.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 19 2024 8:58 utc | 316
s USA/EU is ready to use nuclear weapons. The West is not afraid of anything, has no moral limits and is not a rational player.
Nobody would risk against such an opponent.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 18 2024 12:15 utc | 203
There are moral, legal, and domestic constraints that prohibit the (first) use of nuclear weapons by the US and UK. Besides which, there are multiple redundancies that also make it difficult. Just as there as never been an “accidental” launch, so too there won’t be a first launch. That doesn’t even consider the Russian nuclear deterrent.
Posted by: James M. | Mar 19 2024 9:02 utc | 317
Currently the USA is acting with complete Impunity
noun
1. exemption from punishment or freedom from the injurious consequences of an action
Unless Russia has the balls to change that equation, and fast, they will lose this fight big time.
Given history, the last 25 years, my money is on the USA winning…. even if they lose half or all of Ukraine.
And only getting a bloody nose for it’s trouble.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 19 2024 9:05 utc | 318
….
Given history, the last 25 years, my money is on the USA winning…. even if they lose half or all of Ukraine.
And only getting a bloody nose for it’s trouble.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 19 2024 9:05 utc | 318
It actually depends on how you define a US victory.
Main objectives of US, except weakening Europe, have not and will not be reached, in my opinion.
Same goes for Me.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 19 2024 9:12 utc | 319
The Russian establishment is blind: it could have stopped and neutralized Ukraine by resolutely supporting Syria and Lebanon. And yet it has time and again given permission for attacks by the Levant Entity.
Russia is a civilized state that gives you Citizenship; the Levant Entity is pure Barbarism: a brutal Viking horde that worships itself and does not recognize as Citizenship the population of the territory it controls.
The inferiority complex of the Russian ruling class is depressing.
Posted by: Simon | Mar 18 2024 9:18 utc | 179
This is an amazing post.
For centuries, the Russian elite was trying to gain luxury and wellness by exploiting peasants, just to be like European colonial elites. By imitating them, by adoring European culture, Russian elite (oligarchs) thought that the West would accept them. But they would not. Never. This is a huge inferiority complex of the Russians. There is an opinion that Russia would not retaliate in case of being attacked first by the West. Putin demonstrates that this is true.
In fact, the inferiority complex of elites is strong in China and Iran also. That is why these states, or those spared of that inferiority complex, there, have to be oppressive. Repression is the only way to keep a country together when you do not have an elite while under western attack.
Militarily, Russia can win this oar. Politically it can not if it does not defeat the west as a whole. Without China, Russia cannot do that.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 19 2024 9:12 utc | 320
Me thinks a lot of people here are seeing things as either/or and their adversary as clowns equipped with rubbish.
Reality is a somewhat more complex interplay of strengths/weaknesses/uncertainities/costraints of various nature.
Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 19 2024 9:19 utc | 321
Me thinks a lot of people here are seeing things as either/or and their adversary as clowns equipped with rubbish.
Reality is a somewhat more complex interplay of strengths/weaknesses/uncertainities/costraints of various nature.
Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 19 2024 9:19 utc | 321
You are right but the corporate/western military mind operates only in terms of strengths/weaknesses.
Russia is currently seen as very weak and inferior.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 19 2024 9:24 utc | 322
Zaluzhny proposed starting the construction of defensive structures back in the summer, but Zelensky refused this idea, which is why the ex-Commander-in-Chief gave a scandalous interview to The Economist, which became the reason for his resignation.
Now everyone recognizes that Ukraine started construction of the defense line late, which is why there are large losses among the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “Big Builder” Kirill Timoshenko is now responsible for fortifications and protective structures in the country
According to the Prozorro system, weekly contracts (March 9-16) for the construction of fortifications cost 6.33 billion. The bulk of orders were made by regional administrations. Active orders began only at the beginning of February 2024, when it became clear that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be forced to surrender Avdiivka to the enemy.
If before this, fortification orders for the year amounted to 0.64 billion UAH. So, a month and a half later, another 17 billion UAH were ordered.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22082
Russian smart bombs are a new nightmare for the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Having failed to overcome the well-fortified Russian defenses, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now building their own long lines of deep trenches, minefields and “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank barriers. But at the same time, Ukrainian soldiers are faced with a new threat – glide bombs, writes The Times.
According to the publication, we are talking about modified Soviet-era bombs that are equipped with “smart” wings and thus turn into controlled, powerful weapons. Dropped from aircraft over Russian-controlled territory, they pose a “mortal danger” that Kyiv’s army is ill-prepared to combat.
In case of retreat, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to diligently strengthen their defensive lines, including in the Kupyansk area. But these positions would not be able to withstand the impact of 1,500-kilogram glide bombs, which clearly demonstrated “the extent of their destructive power” in the battle for Avdievka.
“These bombs completely destroy any position,” complained one of the Ukrainian soldiers in his Telegram channel. “After at least one of them hits, all that remains of any building or structure is a crater.”
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22081
Our sources in the General Staff reported that the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have increased by 70% this year, the reason being the massive use of aerial bombs by the enemy.
No one has built serious defense lines in 2023, which has become one of the main problems for the Ukrainian army, especially when the Russian army uses cluster munitions.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22083
Posted by: Down South | Mar 19 2024 9:34 utc | 323
Posted by: Mario | Mar 19 2024 9:12 utc | 319
Yes, we can agree (as has been MANY times already stated by US officials and politicians).
The primary objectives were:
-weaken Russian army
-weaken economy
-overthrow government
-break up into 20-40 parts
-install a Yeltsin duplicate (or worse)
Secondary objectives:
-break EUrope from Russia
-break EU trade and funnel all of it (not only Russia, but China and ROW through US control)
-suck EU industries into the US (cannibalization strategy, ‘two people in a boat in the middle of the ocean, who gets eaten?’)
-force EU to empty weapons to Ukraine and buy new weapons from US
We can argue the secondary set of goals is achieved, the primary goals have completely failed.
But since the US establishment doesn’t usually have longer than ‘quarter’ goals. Secondary set of goals is a pyrrhic victory for the US, since it will weaken the US ‘partner’ EU, make it collapse faster, make it poorer and ultimately make it a customer who can no longer afford US ‘stuff’.
They also didn’t account for Russia-China effectively integrating in economy and military, which is the major loss for US and according to Friedman et. al. should have been avoided at all costs.
Now all the uncontrollable dedollarization (why save in US bonds since US doesn’t have anything the non-west needs because China can supply anything US and more, and for much better prices). Will make the ‘global’ financial system crash.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 10:03 utc | 324
@325
Just to add. We could also see that in order for the secondary set of goals (isolated EU completely dependent on US) to work in the medium term, Russia would have also been needed to break up. Because only that will ensure that the ‘Vampire ball’ keeps going, keeping the US > EU > Rest Of World chain alive.
Now we have Rest Of World > (US > EU), of which US > EU is an isolated system.
No doubt US will force EU to pay more for imports and import more from US, which will crash EU. But EU will drag US down with it.
You can eat the other person on the boat, but eventually it will buy you just a bit of time as no further help is coming.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 10:13 utc | 325
@unimperator @235 @236
I mostly agree with your considerations while my opinion is that even the secondary objectives mostly failed themselves.
Those secondary objectives, having never be voiced publicity, can not possibl6 be part of the US victory PR, and, even if they could possibly be bought by USA public opinion, they will generate troubles in Europe and be easy target for Russia PR.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 19 2024 10:54 utc | 326
Me thinks a lot of people here are seeing things as either/or and their adversary as clowns equipped with rubbish.
Reality is a somewhat more complex interplay of strengths/weaknesses/uncertainities/costraints of various nature.
Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 19 2024 9:19 utc | 322
and vargas and mario
Well sure. But most people don’t bother to take the time to write a proper complex nuanced thesis that covers all the uncertainties and possibilities and variations to a theme which they can think of …. it’s forum where mostly people just throw out their summary top line ideas as comments. No is RAND here or running an army or a nation here . So to a nsap shot view, however detailed one wishes to go is up to each of us. (smile)
@unimperator …
That’s a good review, and quite possible. I’m less convinced is about to tumble down, as fast as you appear to be thinking it might.
While I keep pondering Russia’s oft stated multiplex goals for the SMO and I’m still here scratching my head and going … huh? How are you going to achieve all that now from here? Seemed like a good plan / goal in Feb 2022 … now I’m far from convinced, but we’ll see how they go from here.
Ukraine is obviously screwed, but even if Russia strikes a deadly blow and takes it all, or whatever piece they want now …. then what? Nothing has really changed since Feb 2022 except Ukraine has been wrecked …. what has changed is Russia will still be getting hit with drones and missiles and has totally lost it’s naval and air freedom across the Black Sea.
Anyway, it is still very clouded where things really are today, and what might come next. Too much is hidden (as to be expected) So I’m not sure about anything myself. Beyond appearance appear not so great from Russia short or long term… as far as ‘victory’ is concerned. I cannot see how over 500K dead and even more wounded Russians and Ukrainians and all the destruction has been worth what Russia has gained so far —– versus simply defending their original borders from Ukr.Nato aggression.
The destruction of Ukraine and all that death doesn’t look like winning to me. It just looks like destruction and death.
That and this Rhetoric of how precious and how ‘Russian’ our Ukraine is …. it’s awfully bipolar and really stretches belief. No one has ‘won’ and no one will now.
A POX on all their houses. It’s all Bullshit from every side.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 19 2024 11:31 utc | 327
@ Jake Blanchard, §282:
Yeh, Constantza is inviting trouble.
RF, when it reaches the 1939 Ukie border with Poland, may offer a deal:
You guys leave NATO and demilitarize (i.e. no foreign troops) and Poland gets Galicia, Rumania gets Bessarabia.
So the Constantza base would have, if any, only Rumanian troops.
I think both Rumania and Poland might bite.
But Poland will have a rough time with the Galician Ukies.
Posted by: John Marks | Mar 19 2024 12:23 utc | 328
“Because the US is winning hands down.”
Apparently it’s open mike night at the comedy club, because this one’s a major laugher.
Remember Reagan vs. USSR? We bankrupted them in an arms race. Guess who’s going bankrupt now?
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Mar 19 2024 12:40 utc | 329
“SU bancrupted”
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Mar 19 2024 12:40 utc | 330
What (sadly) killed the SU was German Ostpolitik and the resultant opening followed by cooperation.
Look at NorthKorea for how long you can persist as an isolated entity.
If you think about it the US tries to recreate the Iron curtain scenario from the 50ties.
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 19 2024 12:47 utc | 330
Remember Reagan vs. USSR? We bankrupted them in an arms race. Guess who’s going bankrupt now?
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Mar 19 2024 12:40 utc | 330
You probably took away their small foreign exchange income by lowering the price of oil in a deal with the Saudis. The SU could no longer supply its satellites with cheap oil because they had to sell everything, and their economies collapsed. To this day we don’t know what the Saudlis got from you in return. But they don’t do anything for free.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Mar 19 2024 14:19 utc | 331
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 19 2024 10:03 utc | 325
For the Americans, Europe is just some capital that can be risked for the Endsieg.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Mar 19 2024 14:24 utc | 332
What are the REAL, UNDERLYING REASONS that Macron would/will send French troops into Ukraine? — not just the rhetorical, political ones, or the usual glib opinions about his insecurities.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 19 2024 19:45 utc | 333
Jake Blanchard | Mar 19 2024 19:45 utc | 334
*** What are the REAL, UNDERLYING REASONS that Macron would/will send French troops into Ukraine? — not just the rhetorical, political ones, or the usual glib opinions about his insecurities.***
Money, and the fact of France being several NATO countries away from the Russian border.
Though that said, being a fatcat political apparatchik of the West’s transnational Overclass, he couldn’t really care less what happens to “France” anyway.
Same as the scum who administer the UK on behalf of the US-empire.
But thanks to decades of mass-media indoctrination, too many — more than enough — of the public refuse to recognise that.
Just as they aren’t seriously bothered by Zio-Jews in Israel carrying out massacres while blatantly gloating about having broken most secular laws that ever existed, anywhere.
Any lie, however ludicrous, will do as an excuse not to think for themselves.
Posted by: Cynic | Mar 20 2024 13:10 utc | 334
Lavrov’s Dog@328….you covered it all dude…. completely fucked up….it really is about the money…imagine supplying your enemy with resources so they can make weapons to kill you….. btw for those hung up on contractual legalities, I’d turn them in to paper poopoons and Kinzhal them up a few asses.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 22 2024 14:17 utc | 335