Ukraine Open Thread 2024-081
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on March 17, 2024 at 14:29 UTC | Permalink
next page »Bill Clinton praised Putin's honesty:
https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/1768479658415362142?s=20
That is a surprising deviation from the narrative.
Thoughts?
Posted by: Afro | Mar 17 2024 14:58 utc | 2
SlowSoft | Mar 17 2024 14:18 utc | 548
they will appreciate his good will for ceasefire same way like grain deal, minsk 2, ns2,......
Dont remember any head of state with such childish naivity
Other paying a bloody price for vlads naivity
Posted by: tesla | Mar 17 2024 14:52 utc | 1
Vlad's naivity?
Who is this person called "Vlad"?
Posted by: Moscow Exile | Mar 17 2024 15:09 utc | 3
Lord of War reporting an alleged drone attack on a Russian MI-8 helicopter in Transnistria.
Does that mean Moldova is now in the war zone?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 17 2024 15:16 utc | 4
Posted by: Afro | Mar 17 2024 14:58 utc | 2
Interesting. Deviating from the stupid Western narratives is a luxury, a luxury of self-respect that only someone like Bill Clinton (and a few others that are well-known to us) can afford.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Mar 17 2024 15:18 utc | 5
Re: Post by: YetAnotherAnon on Mar 17 2024 15:16 @ #4
Lord of War reporting an alleged drone attack on a Russian MI-8 helicopter in Transnistria. Does that mean Moldova is now in the war zone?
In this mornings' Military Summary, Dima said that Russian citizens in Transnistria will be voting today. He expected terrorist attacks on voting queues so this is benign compared to non-combatants being slaughtered by Ukraine.
Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Mar 17 2024 15:32 utc | 6
On top of the attack in Transnistria, another Russian oil refinery was successfully attacked today, and more civilians were killed in Belgorod. Far from being on the defensive, it seems like Ukraine/NATO is taking the fight directly to Russia.
Posted by: bored | Mar 17 2024 16:00 utc | 7
Posted by: bored | Mar 17 2024 16:00 utc | 7
Stop glorifying terror attacks like a Banderite loser.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 17 2024 16:05 utc | 8
Democracy inside the new Russian territories is doing very well! Final turnout for new constituent entities of the Russian Federation:🔺DPR - 88.17%
🔺 Zaporozhye region - 85.02% (as of 15:00)
🔺 LPR - 87.12%
🔺Kherson region - 83.87%.
https://twitter.com/NovichokRossiya/status/1769394294584922164
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 16:07 utc | 9
On top of the attack in Transnistria, another Russian oil refinery was successfully attacked today, and more civilians were killed in Belgorod. Far from being on the defensive, it seems like Ukraine/NATO is taking the fight directly to Russia.
Posted by: bored | Mar 17 2024 16:00 utc | 7
That does not look like fear to me. More like growing assurance that Russia will not react. Check out this article in Le Figaro.
You've got an analyst from an American think tank in France confidently claiming France has the means to (and should !) "physically destroy Russia".
I will pull the old Mafia analogy again, but if someone had ever uttered a similar threat against the Corleonesi in the eighties, he would have been dead soon after. The clock is ticking for Russia - its passivity and weakness (not to say cowardice) is pushing us all into the abyss. Paul Craig Roberts was right.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 17 2024 16:11 utc | 10
@10 micron
Re: Russian weakness in the face of terrorism
Nato needs to get russian forces out into the open. This will make it easier to destroy them. That's why they get provoked constantly. The nato strikes have no military significance otherwise.
By not rushing out of their defensive lines(which extend the entire border) russia can keep inflicting fire damage on Nato forces, which is making them desperate. This desperation leads them further down the road of shameless terror attacks.
You see russia needs to defeat nato forces in the same way, but it's seeming weakness and passivity hasn't succeeded yet in luring nato into the donbass. Where their troops and supply lines can be targeted directly.
But based on Macrons statements it's getting close to working. Also based on the comments here I'm thinking this psy op is working pretty good.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 17 2024 16:19 utc | 11
its passivity and weakness (not to say cowardice) is pushing us all into the abyss. Paul Craig Roberts was right.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 17 2024 16:11 utc | 10
For a start, Russia is not US mafia. Secondly its the absolute passivity and apathy in the sheeple of the west that is taking us into the abyss.
Russia can and will if pushed destroy the entire west.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 17 2024 16:19 utc | 12
Somebody is happy today, "bored ukrop" i "micro macron"! Enjoy while you can, it won't last!
Posted by: Preki | Mar 17 2024 16:20 utc | 13
Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian army cannot stabilize the front in the Avdeevsky direction due to intense shelling by artillery and aircraft. Syrsky is forced to transfer more and more reserves while the construction of defensive structures near Selidovo is underway.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22053
Our source reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have now entered a phase where they are losing more infantry per day than they are mobilizing new ones.
In summer, the deficit can reach a critical 1 to 4 (for one mobilized person there are 4 “departures”.These are the wounded/dead). As a result, Ukraine will lose its last advantage, which could be used to “put out fires” and “show off attacks.”
https://t.me/legitimniy/17461
Our source reports that the chaos in the mobilization case has reached the uttermost level of absurdity.
In 80% of cases, kidnapped Ukrainians stopped signing TCC papers even under threats and pressure. Now TCC cashiers brazenly draw their own signatures instead of the stolen ones.They are so insolent that they are not afraid of courts and prosecution, since the Office of the President gave them verbal permission to do as they please. It is important for the bank to recruit manpower, since 90% of them will never return or will never prove their case in the courts.
That is why the way out of this situation is public and media coverage. Some abductees even resort to suicide attempts to resist the lawlessness of the authorities.
The second option is to have lawyers’ numbers and immediately download the case and publicize it publicly.In the future, Ukraine will face many lawsuits in the ECHR. This government may be recognized as “dictatorial” in the future.
https://t.me/legitimniy/17467
Total mobilization continues, and none of the military commissars even checks the documents, they simply load them into buses and send them to units.Lawlessness of the TCC in Lvov - military commissars forcibly pushed volunteer Taran Kirill into the bead without presenting a summons
As the volunteer’s wife later reported, during the arrest his jacket was torn, his glasses and phone were also broken.
The incident occurred on March 16, and now the man is already in the military unit of the city of Rivne.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22054
Posted by: Down South | Mar 17 2024 16:34 utc | 14
Russian attacks against NATO territory would be exactly what would be used to convince western public opinion to support mobilization, with all its attendant costs, which while would not yield anywhere near the amount of equipment pro western supporters imagine would still be a non trivial amount.
As things stand the manpower/equipment prospects of the ukrainian army should not be a pretty sight or else western pols would not be running around as if their hairs were on fire. Their tone was very different just few months ago...
Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 17 2024 16:39 utc | 15
ts passivity and weakness (not to say cowardice) is pushing us all into the abyss. Paul Craig Roberts was right.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 17 2024 16:11 utc | 10
that`s funny BS. Russia doesn`t respond to every little and useless attack. They decided to accept minor losses. That is a common militarily thinking.
If you fire 30 Patriots worth 60mln$ to shoot down 30 Drohnes worth only 180K$, you will lose any war. Anybody can grasp that - but not the Ukries. Now, they do not have enough ammo to fight. All, what they (but probably the brits and napoleons) can do is to ride some stupid, militarily senseless terrorist-style drohne attacks. Great! Wow! The result is, that russian people gather round the flag, supporting the government and army (not "Putin" or "Vlad")[Troll style]. Is that the case in he rotten West?
Posted by: ableman | Mar 17 2024 16:46 utc | 16
Down South: "Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian army cannot stabilize the front in the Avdeevsky direction due to intense shelling by artillery and aircraft."
----------------
Maybe. We'll se. But they've held it a month longer than the "got 'em on the run" and the "no lines prepared" and the "already took Berdiche" crew thought they would. Cough Duran, cough Kalibrated.
At this point, I'm really not interested in a single additional "any day now" prediction. If it's really coming soon, let's just wait until it actually happens. Not tease it.
I judge each side how I judge women. By their actions, not their words.
Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 17 2024 16:46 utc | 17
The clock is ticking for Russia - its passivity and weakness (not to say cowardice) is pushing us all into the abyss.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 17 2024 16:11 utc | 10
Fortunately, Putin seems quite capable of seeing the bigger picture: Maintaining and increasing the support from the parts of the world that are not NATO. Bombing Kyiw,sending sabotage teams to France, or sending arms to guerilla groups who use them to blow up American soldiers, war ships, planes would be easy - and change nothing.
Less than nothing: Right now, support for the western war mongerers is crumbling. Two years ago, 2/3 of the countries voted against Russia. Now, 2/3 are voting for Russia. Two years ago, 2/3 of the population in NATO countries wanted to support Ukraine, now 2/3 want to end the war. Last week, 3/4 of Germans Bundestag voted AGAINST sending Taurus missiles!
Blow up the Eiffel tower, kill large numbers of civilians, attack the infrastructure - and the public will support NATO again.
Much better to sit on the fence and let NATO show its true face: butcher of civilians.
NATO citizens have been willing to accept exploding prices and crumbling economies in order to fight a monster. They will not accept those hardships when they realize their own governments are the monsters, not the guy in Russia.
Posted by: Marvin | Mar 17 2024 16:51 utc | 18
"I judge each side how I judge women. By their actions, not their words."
Bloody brilliant! That's exactly how I judge deodorants.
Posted by: Victor G. | Mar 17 2024 16:53 utc | 19
a question to all energy engineers reading this blog: kommersant says that atmospheric and vacuum units were damaged in the latest refinery attack : https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6578527
do you know how long does it take to change them? (similar attacks in the previous days did similar damages)
Posted by: gigi | Mar 17 2024 16:53 utc | 20
The silly propaganda line for the Western MSM today is the Thompson Reuters feed this morning portraying the lines of voters going in to the polling places as: "Thousands of "Navalny" demonstrators protesting Putin by lining up to vote." You simply can't make up sophomoric garbage this laughable. Whoever the spook twerp was who came up with that line for today must have been deep into the sauce last night.
Posted by: wilsonK | Mar 17 2024 16:58 utc | 21
Attacking civilians or oil refineries are terrorist attacks that only have value as propaganda. Instinctively, I would like to see a strong Russian response, but the Russian strategy is the correct one and it will work out in the end: they are systematically destroying Ukrainian soldiers and NATO equipment with minimum losses. (Yes, civilians dying in a terrorist attack is tragic, but that doesn't mean the Ukraine is any closer to advancing into Russia.)
Russia has not responded to provocations because they know this war could expand into a war with NATO. Taking out Ukraine in a blitzkrieg would unite NATO, but this slow motion Russian advance has given time to increasingly divide NATO (witness France versus other countries about sending troops into Ukraine). Plus it has depleted NATO of weapons while giving Russia the opportunity to learn more about destroying Western weapon systems and improve their own tactics. Eventually, Ukraine will suddenly collapse, Russia will take over, and NATO will have to decide if they want to fight a war over a non-NATO partner that can potentially go nuclear, or let Ukraine go.
Posted by: Victor Scarpia | Mar 17 2024 17:04 utc | 22
Posted by: Victor Scarpia | Mar 17 2024 17:04 utc | 22
I don't believe those small payload drones have very large impacts or long term effects on refineries. When they hit a fuel tank, probably the tank is replaceable, but the lost fuel is the biggest thing. They can occasionally hit something flammable that produces a lot of smoke and a firework, but those fires have many times been isolated and localized into small areas.
Only if valves are not shut down and the fire is allowed to spread through the system can it cause large damage.
Usually they are pieces of pipe or a pump etc. that can be replaced. With China as a neighbor, pumps and straight and angled pipes are relatively easy to get and weld.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 17:08 utc | 24
NATO citizens have been willing to accept exploding prices and crumbling economies in order to fight a monster. They will not accept those hardships when they realize their own governments are the monsters, not the guy in Russia.
Posted by: Marvin | Mar 17 2024 16:51 utc | 18
I am not sure I would put it that way but certainly western governments while can fight cabinet and colonial wars cannot demand more that a certain level of effort from their people by feeding them the usual BS. And they have pretty much reached that limit.
The sort of western shitlibs who are the most enthusiastic about war are the least willing to put any effort into it short of a little bit of disruption. Certainly they will not enlist.
Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 17 2024 17:11 utc | 25
Heureusement pour nous les occidentaux, Poutine garde calme et sang froid.
Posted by: Dubourg | Mar 17 2024 17:14 utc | 26
@17anonymous
Re: the berdychi line of defence.
Your absolutely correct, there was way too much triumphalism after adveeka. I had noticed soon after the loss of adveeka syrsky decided to defend the berdychi line, followed up by counter attacks to push the Russians back east and secure those three villages.
However this just means the adveeka meatgrinder moved out of the city and into the that defensive lines low lands which is a terrible place to defend.
That means russia has to keep churning it up until reinforcements stop, which i judge to be until the fall. Be prepared for lots of seeming stalemate until ukraine goes further west to much better lines.
The only question is whether the Ukrainian army will still want to fight then. There's a few variables to quantify before that can be calculated though.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 17 2024 17:16 utc | 27
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 17 2024 17:16 utc | 27
The defense on the Berdychi line just reinforces the notion that the entire war of Ukraine is decided in the Donbass.
Because obviously, based on any criteria the mobilization is going quite poorly to put it mildly. They will never get 500k more people.
Even Russia gets something like 200k volunteers per year. Forget about Ukraine getting 500k volunteers in 3-6 months. I doubt they can get 2000 volunteers. They only get volunteers from the west. The rest is force mobilized and it is getting even worse per Legitimnyi etc. channels.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 17:22 utc | 28
About Pope and "white flag". Horrors of mobilization seep to Western press, eg. Washington Post cited by b. Kidnapping scenes and resistance scenes circulate, I know them from Military Summary, and what is germane in the context of Pope, there is resistance in Galicia, the part of Ukraine that got converted to Greek Catholic rite of Roman Catholic Church (by Polish lords in late 17th and 18 century, that was undone under Russian rule elsewhere). IMHO, the Pope was responding to the requests of his Catholic faithfuls.
Initially, forcible recruitment seemed to be focused on Russian/surzhik speaking areas (Ukrainian/Russian mix, described as Russian vocabulary and Ukrainian phonetics + grammar, mind you, "Ukrainian vocabulary" that differs from Russian is in large proportion Polish with Ukrainian phonetics + grammar), but now it is everywhere, and Galicians are "not amused". How much Galician villagers care if Crimea, Donbass etc. are in Ukraine? This is a concept of the "intellectual class", compare farmers vs wokism in the West where farmers protest fertilizer rules, unfair competition from Ukraine etc., i.e. very concrete issues. Unlike villagers in the relative West (Poland is not THAT western), they face death or maiming.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Mar 17 2024 17:23 utc | 29
Posted by: bored | Mar 17 2024 16:00 utc | 7
Who knew, maybe Dmitry Medvedev will tweet some nuclear threats as 'retaliation' ?
Vladimir Putin and his clique really turned Russia into a joke.
Posted by: Capricorne | Mar 17 2024 17:34 utc | 30
@28 unimperator
Re: mobilization numbers
Yes, that's one of the variables that remains to be quantified. Also to be quantified is how many foreign mercenaries/cloaked nato soldiers are sent there.
I think that there's a lot more military potential that will be sent into donbass. The real question is if microns plan is implemented or not. I have no good information on that yet, no one does. Signals have been sent that support will be maintained until fall though.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 17 2024 17:39 utc | 31
An assessment of the current state of play:
Vladimir Putin: "The explanation is very simple. All this is happening against the backdrop of failures on the line of contact, on the front line. They did not achieve any of the goals they set for themselves last year. Moreover, now the initiative has completely passed to our Armed Forces. Everyone knows this, everyone admits it. I don’t think I’ll say anything new here. Against the backdrop of those failures, they need to show at least something, and, mainly, attention should be focused on the information side of the matter."
Ukraine continues to lose its most experienced soldiers and increasingly tries to replace them with raw recruits. As the conflict continues this process accelerates, so it is not just a matter of numerical replacement of bodies at the front, but also of military competence combined with material and logistical issues. For the moment the replacement of 200/300 with warm bodies masks the overall deterioration of competence. As the ability to find acceptable replacements declines the competence issue will become more pronounced. There are many other issues also impacting Ukraine's ability to keep manning the front including increasing resistance to mobilization, inability to pay salaries, social agitation for prisoner exchanges, increasing economic hardship for ordinary people, and gradual loss of the ability to maintain a functional state as the military effort siphons off the necessary human and material resources.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 17 2024 17:45 utc | 32
I judge each side how I judge women. By their actions, not their words.
Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 17 2024 16:46 utc | 17
My impression is that you consider 'how their boobs jiggle' "actions."
Have you actually looked at a map? The terrain west of Avdeevka has a significant water barrier of rivers and reservoirs. The Ukes built only the most haphazard fortifications here because the terrain multiplies their effectiveness. What 'serious' fortifications have been built are well west of the water barrier, and very few of these have been built. Perhaps the Ukrainian strategy is to slow- they certainly haven't halted- the Russian advance while they build fortifications further back, but in practice it seems that they are expending resources- men, equipment and ammunition- that they cannot replace just in order to support your superficial narrative. Yes, that slows down the Russians more than simply retreating would. So what? NATO? Their threats of intervention are a clear sign that Ukrainian combat capability is reaching exhaustion and can't be restored. What are one thousand Frenchmen going to do about it? Die, perhaps.
Posted by: Honzo | Mar 17 2024 17:47 utc | 33
American funding was stopped because A) they were running out of Ukrainians, and B) they were not getting sufficient returns on investment.
The coke snorter in command is throw as many bodies into the line as possible until the Brits and Europeans make some/their next Wiley E Coyote move against Russia.
The french poodle attacking the bear.... I guess Micron is a bit unhappy because his African colonies are booting the French out and inviting Russia in.
No negotiations Borrell - this will be settled on the battlefield. Stoltenberg in a constant state of agitation since the sanctions from hell failed to destroy the Russian Federation - much hand waving....
The Westphalian elite desperately trying to figure out how to attack the bear that just sits there and waits. Or perhaps, the bear that is raiding the beehive.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 17 2024 17:49 utc | 34
re: Afro | Mar 17 2024 14:58 utc | 2
you asked:
Bill Clinton praised Putin's honesty . . . Thoughts?"
Hillary is going to castrate Bill.
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 17 2024 18:01 utc | 35
American funding was stopped because A) they were running out of Ukrainians, and B) they were not getting sufficient returns on investment.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 17 2024 17:49 utc | 34
No, American funding was stopped because A) The goal of the war- complete subjugation of the EU- is well in hand and B) at this point, even the more or less 'organic' European leaders are so locked in to the conflict that in the absence of US support, they will, for awhile, continue to bankrupt themselves economically and militarily in order salvage something, anything, from the debacle. The individuals at the top of the EU are all selections of the US, but they are useful idiots, not policy makers. They are all low-IQ individuals that allowed themselves to bribed, blackmailed and coerced into embracing a war that was intended from the beginning to defeat Europe, not Russia. Their counterparts in the American Neocon community no doubt believed that bringing down Putin was at least a possibility, but the real architects- of the sanctions war, of the destruction of Nordstream, of, way back when, the breaking of the Iran nuke deal, and more recently the 10/7 war with the consequent closure of the Red Sea route to Europe, were building a trap for the EU all along. Scholz, Macron, Van der Looney, the whole gang thought they were allies, but now have been shown that they are minions. Sure, they're important figures in the US fleet- they're chained to the rowing benches.
Posted by: Honzo | Mar 17 2024 18:03 utc | 36
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 17 2024 16:19 utc | 11
Exactly. Running ahead of your air defense and into enemy air defense zones is just inviting NATO to do something stupid like an alpha strike with a few hundred aircraft on your poorly protected army. Best just to walk the line forward and not give NATO any juicy targets that they cannot resist.
Posted by: badjoke | Mar 17 2024 18:06 utc | 37
Hey everyone.
There is a rather crazy story on ZH regarding a Ukrainian adult film star doing an event with Ukrainian soldiers wounded in the SMO.
This just takes it up another notch for me. Sex and death. Plus a bunch of poor sods with prosthetics. And considering how much ((())) are involved in the porn adult film business, I see the not so hidden hand, or other extremity of elensky and Kolomoisky and whatever other -sky involved with this new low.
I hope Yulia Senyuk aka Josephine Jackson does a show with Vicki Nudelman with Robert Kagan dressed up like Sushkevich or Bandera. After all, Leopold von Sacher-Masoch was from Lviv. But I think it was a part of Poland at that time.
The stupid level has really been turned up a notch in the world. What is going on?
Idiocracy by Mike Judge helps me get by. As well as a few other things.
Posted by: lex talionis | Mar 17 2024 18:09 utc | 38
Oops. Lviv (Lemberg) at that time was in the Austro Hungarian empire when Sacher Masoch was alive.
Posted by: lex talionis | Mar 17 2024 18:15 utc | 39
Posted by: Marvin | Mar 17 2024 16:51 utc | 18
I wonder how 'the day after' looks like once the Eiffel tower is being blown up in pieces.
Posted by: AI | Mar 17 2024 18:20 utc | 40
By not rushing out of their defensive lines(which extend the entire border) russia can keep inflicting fire damage on Nato forces, which is making them desperate. This desperation leads them further down the road of shameless terror attacks.Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 17 2024 16:19 utc | 11
This is absurd cope.
What defense lines?
NATO is striking deep inside Russia itself.
Nothing short of missile strikes on leadership in the EU and/or something like sinking half the UK and/or French navy will restore deterrence at this point. And it's an open ended question whether even something like this will be sufficient, or what is actually necessary will be strategic countervalue nuclear strikes on some of the more belligerent NATO countries.
Because it is their weapons being used to shell Belgorod right now, and because of their condescending and gloating reaction to it, the Czechs are the first who have fully earned the right to be made an example of (sure, the Latvian president the other day publicly called for "Russia delenda est!", but Riga is a 50% Russian city, plus this is Lativa -- it can be handled easily without such strikes)
The other proven offenders right now are the Australians -- we know Australian drones were used inside Russia. And this would actually be cleaner politically -- Australia isn't in NATO -- and also a great demonstration of strength given the location.
Russian attacks against NATO territory would be exactly what would be used to convince western public opinion to support mobilization, with all its attendant costs, which while would not yield anywhere near the amount of equipment pro western supporters imagine would still be a non trivial amount. Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 17 2024 16:39 utc | 15
What other option exactly is there left?
If nothing drastic is done soon, they will next move from the refineries to the weapon manufacturing centers and the airfields. They already hit a couple of the big metallurgical plants and tried to attack airfields around Voronezh (we never heard of any damage there, but FighterBomber talked about in a way that did not sound reassuring that there was none; for op-sec reasons we are not going to be given such information). And then Russia will be done. The refineries themselves are already a huge issue -- if they hit another half a dozen, fuel shortage will become an entirely realistic prospect. Not for the military -- there are deep strategic reserves, many of them safe underground -- but imagine what the mood inside Russia will be when gas stations have no fuel for regular people...
This all could have been avoided with strikes on NATO ISR drones, all the CIA cells, the embassies in Kiev while they were evacuated to Lvov (so that they had nothing to return to), preventing the VIP parade in Kiev, and sealing the border crossings with NATO with regular strikes, all that done the moment NATO started meddling directly, which was early in 2022. Also with defining clear political goal and acting on them the moment Ukrainian terrorism started ramping up -- e.g. derecognition of Ukrainian independence, declaring Ukrainian leadership to be illegitimate terrorists, wiping them out, declaring all assistance to them to be an act of terrorism and an attack on Russia, etc. etc. Lots of things could have been. done. And, of course, the biggest one -- total mobilization the moment it became clear this problem will have to be resolved the same way it was in 1941-1945, which meant late April 2022 the latest. So that the war was finished ASAP.
None of that was done -- instead we had this schizophrenic not-war and an absurd desire by the Kremlin to maintain normalcy at all costs -- so here we are. The whole point of me, Paul Craig Roberts, and a few other sane voices ranting about this issue for 18 months now was that things should never have been allowed to get to this point, as the future of humanity is at stake. Once we have missed our chances to deescalate at a lower point on the escalation ladder, deterrence can only be reestablished with drastic measures.
And no, there will be no mobilization if e.g. Czechia ceases to exist. The exact opposite -- the only three countries that matter here are the US, France and the UK because they have nukes, and the public there is not going to go out calling for all out total nuclear war once someone has been made an example of what the consequences are.
that`s funny BS. Russia doesn`t respond to every little and useless attack. They decided to accept minor losses. That is a common militarily thinking. If you fire 30 Patriots worth 60mln$ to shoot down 30 Drohnes worth only 180K$, you will lose any war. Anybody can grasp that - but not the Ukries. Now, they do not have enough ammo to fight. All, what they (but probably the brits and napoleons) can do is to ride some stupid, militarily senseless terrorist-style drohne attacks. Great! Wow! The result is, that russian people gather round the flag, supporting the government and army (not "Putin" or "Vlad")[Troll style]. Is that the case in he rotten West?Posted by: ableman | Mar 17 2024 16:46 utc | 16
What alternative universe are people living in?
These are "little and useless attacks"?
First, right in Belgorod it is impossible to go outside, and has been for several days. It's double digit dead and wounded every day for a week now, with cars exploding all over the place, residential buildings being hit, etc.. There is zero indication anyone intends to finally get off their lazy asses and take Kharkov, so this situation is set to persists indefinitely. That is a little minor thing?
Second, a quarter of Russian refinery capacity was taken offline in a week. There is again no indication that anyone is going to do anything to stop it, so this will only get worse from here. That's "little and useless"?
There is no technological solution to drones at the moment -- they fly low and are hard to detect. There was talk about setting up balloons to observe the whole border, then get helicopters up to shoot down the drones. Might work, but that is some time off into the future. And then NATO will likely shoot down the balloons -- they will be in Patriot range and easy stationary targets too.
Third, the comment about the Patriots is just retarded. Nobody on the Ukrainian side is using Patriots to shoot down Shaheds, they are using them to target Russian planes, especially the high value ones. And the same equation works on the other side -- Ukraine is sending swarms of $5-10,000 drones, how much do you think it costs Russia to shoot those down?
Fourth, all of this is exposing the strategic positions of Russian air defense, and is also depleting it. Guess what that is a precursor of?
The only real defense against these attacks is to re-establish deterrence.
Fortunately, Putin seems quite capable of seeing the bigger picture: Maintaining and increasing the support from the parts of the world that are not NATO. Bombing Kyiw,sending sabotage teams to France, or sending arms to guerilla groups who use them to blow up American soldiers, war ships, planes would be easy - and change nothing.Posted by: Marvin | Mar 17 2024 16:51 utc | 18
As has been explained many times, Putin has been losing support from the rest of the world, not gaining it by being so weak. Remember that Samarkand summit in September 2022 when everyone was at peak multipolarity-Eurasianist delusion? What are the main participants in it and some other "friends" of Russia doing right now? Shall we run a quick summary?
-- The Azeris are supplying Ukraine with shells as fast as they can and also killed several Russian soldiers in Karabakh, with zero consequences
-- Armenia is soon going to kick the Russians out and invite NATO in.
-- Kazakhstan will sell its old Soviet planes to Ukraine
-- The Pakistanis sold hundreds of thousands of Grad rockets to Ukraine
-- There are persistent rumors that even the Indians (!!!) are about to start selling weapons to Ukraine
-- We know the Serbians have been selling ER Grad rounds, because in fact right now Belgorod is being shelled with Czech RM-70 Vampire MLRS, but the rounds are Serbian.
Does that looks like winning and "maintaining and increasing the support from the parts of the world that are not NATO"?
And yes, let's see the big picture.
The big picture is that there are now NATO bases all over Scandinavia and that pre-war Russian territory is being under direct military attacks daily, with very painful hits on civilians and on strategic infrastructure.
Do you see Houston and New Orleans being under 24/7 Grad fire and the refineries along the Gulf Coast going up in flames one by one?
Attacking civilians or oil refineries are terrorist attacks that only have value as propaganda.
When Russian gas stations hang up the "out of gas" signs, we will see whether the only value of these strikes is propaganda.
Russia has not responded to provocations because they know this war could expand into a war with NATO.
Because the turn-the-other-cheek approach has absolutely not expanded the war. To deep inside Russia...
Taking out Ukraine in a blitzkrieg would unite NATO
Taking out Ukraine in a blitzkrieg back in 2022 would have ended the war right then and there. And we wouldn't be in this situation. NATO was stil scared back then
but this slow motion Russian advance has given time to increasingly divide NATO (witness France versus other countries about sending troops into Ukraine).Posted by: Victor Scarpia | Mar 17 2024 17:04 utc | 22
Peak delusions right here.
The only dissent in NATO is from Hungary and Slovakia, and even that is mostly verbal. Everyone else is following their orders. The attack on Nord Stream made sure about that.
I don't believe those small payload drones have very large impacts or long term effects on refineries. When they hit a fuel tank, probably the tank is replaceable, but the lost fuel is the biggest thing.Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 17:08 utc | 24
They are not hitting fuel tanks, they are hitting the distilation columns. The most sensitive and hard to repair parts. And small payload drone work very well on refineries because refineries by their very nature only need a spark to go up in flames.
Posted by: shĐ°dÎżwbanned | Mar 17 2024 18:27 utc | 41
I wrote here for some time about being able to hear the printing presses running continuously after 2008 when the US debt was $800 billion and now it is $34+ trillion.
I don't remember getting my $100 million, do you?
Where did all that money go?
What is the US public going to do about that odious debt?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2024 23:56 utc | 459 (Previous thread)
————-
The predatory class has definitely taken their cut but how much of that money is real?
If we see a 75% drop in real estate, a 90% drop in the stock market and who knows how much money go up in smoke in the derivatives market.
Posted by: financial matters | Mar 17 2024 18:33 utc | 42
I find it interesting that after the strike close to the place and time when the Greek PM was in Odessa first Macron and now Grant Shapps cancelled trips there, Shapps was supposed to visit Odessa, maybe Macron too. Strange too, after so much recent bluster and chest pounding. They definitely planned on following up the bold talk with a trip.
Maybe the Russians are finally taking the gloves off w/ regards to NATO? Maybe back channels said straight up, show up in UKR and your safety is no longer guaranteed. Really, think about it, the President of France and the UK SecDef are genuinely worried of getting killed by the Russians? It would be unprecedented, and about time.
Even if Macron has a hormone shot for the testicular fortitude 3/4 of France would be out on the streets banging pots and pans and cheering his demise. His handlers will make sure he avoids Ukraine.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 17 2024 18:40 utc | 43
@SB
You should focus your replies. I will say there are physical defence lines that prevent territory from being taken in Russia. The long range drone strikes are the equivalent of throwing a few dozen grenades at hundreds of vast industrial enterprises. The losses are easily bearable by Russia as long as the will is there. Which it seems to be.
I recommend a scientific approach to this war. Develop a theory and wait for natural conditions to test it under real world conditions. The.emotional bomb everything model clearly isn't working.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 17 2024 18:41 utc | 44
Whew! I hate to follow such a great amount of verbal diarhea. It might run down the page onto me. This comment from Down South "The Ukrainian Armed Forces have now entered a phase where they are losing more infantry per day than they are mobilizing new ones." is telling. I have thought of Nathan Hale many times in the last week. For those who were not indoctrinated by US schools, he is the Revolutionary spy who said as the noose was being tightened around his neck "I regret that I have but one life to give for my country." It is beginning to look as though Ukraine is running out of Nathan Hales. Perhaps SB can volunteer soon and talk the Russians into submission.
PS Thanks a lot Down South for sharing the gleanings from the Internet with us.
Posted by: Quid Me Vexari | Mar 17 2024 18:46 utc | 45
lex talionis | Mar 17 2024 18:09 utc | 38
I saw the pics the ukroids were posting not long back.
Sex and death. I guess that about sums up neo-nazis.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 17 2024 18:53 utc | 46
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 17 2024 18:40 utc | 43
The Russians can and will kill Nato honchos if they want, but out of courtesy they don't.
And the other reason is it will make no difference as these honchos are irrelevant anyway. Because in reality, all those politicians in the west - non of them have won an election in reality, they were only delivered as candidates before indoctrinated to be US vassals. And the votes made up by electronic voting machines and in backend algorithms for skewing votes a la Dominion.
So kill one idiot, another one takes their place. And now Nato has just more stuffing to sell to the western audience because 'authoritarian Russia took out our democratically elected leaders'.
But I wouldn't put it pass that British officials will get whacked, eventually. Britain is the current beta leader of the pack and whacking them would probably have more significance in making the gamma pack members like the Balts and Finns shut up, even for a while.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 18:55 utc | 47
[email protected] foreign diplomats and dignitaries have been thumbing their noses at Russia, flying in and out of 404 like they owned the place....
.....I don't think NATO at present has an answer for the double tap Iskander (can't imagine a multiple tap, likely reserved by Russia for demonstration purposes), other than higher life insurance premiums for
participants.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 17 2024 18:57 utc | 48
Honzo | Mar 17 2024 18:03 utc | 36
For the Anglo's its always been about the heartland. Anglo America deep state is a bit divided, but it did go for the heartland. Like Ukraine, old Europe was just another tool to use towards that end.
To keep going for the heartland now, which they wanted to take down before tackling China, was a failure so now deep state opinion has swung to the other faction that wants to go straight for China.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 17 2024 19:01 utc | 49
@Honzo | Mar 17 2024 18:03 utc | 36
Are all Europeans dumb to hell and not able to see thru the amerikkkan real intention? Since the foundation of the west Europe is quite deep after 400 years of preying, it seems to me the decline may take years to "appear" to the populace to realize the amerikkkan true color. There is a possibility that people in the west Europe are politically brain-dead and never wake up. If there were people in the west Europe, primarily in France and/or Germany, can see thru the smoke and propaganda, why don't their views/voices be heard/seen to stop or mitigate the self-inflicted damages by its "leadersheep"?!
I wonder what you envision the west Europe, where the former colonial "powers", would end 10-20 years from now? Would they become irrelevant at the world stage and back to kind of dark age 2.0 after its wealth gets suck dry and empty by the vampire imperial amerikkans? Thanks.
Posted by: LuReJia | Mar 17 2024 19:08 utc | 50
The USUKIS/CIA/Mossad/MI Conglomerate must've installed ALL the current European and EU NATO Sycophants and Order Takers. What a coup! EU countries self destruct as ordered. What a sick, demented world!
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Mar 17 2024 19:12 utc | 51
Posted by: financial matters | Mar 17 2024 18:33 utc | 42
The debt bubble will probably implode under pressure of demographics caused lower housing demand, and all the ZIRP real estate debt accumulated during 2009 - 2021, in addition to mass layoffs now in industrial and tech sectors across the west, and the general unsustainability of rising living costs and employment collapse in quantity and quality.
The debt implosion will cause a major financial crisis in the west. We are at the point were precious metal bullion is being drained fast from bullion dealers in the west. There is a major buying spree in China, who views advocating saving in gold and silver as a way to diversify from the dollar. Essentially, citizen savings in PMs is replacing the dollar dependency, and silver and gold will have an important place in the BRICS reserve system.
Bitcoin will collapse along western FIAT system. Till that happens, one could make still lot of profits with it (measured in western fiat). When western fiat no longer can buy physical precious metals and other commodities, that is when the implosion of the system is near.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 19:13 utc | 52
Dear and honored Vladimir Vladimirowitsch!
Congratulations from heart for your reelection as president of the Russian Federation!
In your 24 years long tenure you brought wellfare, proud and peace not only to women, men and children of your own country but also to many other countries. You also brought back the deep and large culture of your great Russian nation to the world. Russian music, literature, movies, paintings and ballet are of immense worth to our world and they will never be forgotten in the history of the human race!
May God the Almighty bless your path and life and may the great Russian nation prevail and live in happiness!
Greetings from Switzerland
Posted by: Aarsupilani | Mar 17 2024 19:17 utc | 53
@52
Related here is also Putin's comment: 'the Vampire ball of the west is ending'. Think about it and you probably will see the economic connection.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 19:20 utc | 54
@Aarsupilani | Mar 17 2024 19:17 utc | 53
I second your sentiment!
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 17 2024 19:20 utc | 55
Posted by: Aarsupilani | Mar 17 2024 19:17 utc | 53
Well-put, Aarsupilani! May your life go well...
Greetings from Southern California
Posted by: donten | Mar 17 2024 19:23 utc | 56
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 17 2024 16:19 utc | 12
Micron is a French neonazi supporting his brothers of the Kiew regime. What he writes has no importance at all.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 17 2024 19:23 utc | 57
And then Russia will be done.
Posted by: shĐ°dÎżwbanned | Mar 17 2024 18:27 utc | 41
Ukraine has been attacking russian airfields since 2022. Last time I checked the VVS, never mind Russia, is still there.
Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 17 2024 19:25 utc | 58
Posted by: Aarsupilani | Mar 17 2024 19:17 utc | 53
Did you sign the initiative to restore the swiss neutrality?
Posted by: Naive | Mar 17 2024 19:25 utc | 59
Posted by: shĐ°dÎżwbanned | Mar 17 2024 18:27 utc | 41
More lies from sob. Why do I come here if to read the same lies and other ones as in the corrupt western medias?
Posted by: Naive | Mar 17 2024 19:29 utc | 60
Aarsupilani @ 53
Well said.
I see the trolls are in panic mode with their nonsensical whimpering sounding very much like an episode of Jerry Seinfeld on repeat.
@ 41, I gave up reading after.."Russia should".....and was instantly rewarded with ignoring the rest of the long winded garbage posted by this loser.
Posted by: Suresh | Mar 17 2024 19:38 utc | 61
Au secours, la France mon beau et doux pays est dirigé par un malade mental, sniffeur de coke et marie avec un transexuel.
Posted by: Dubourg | Mar 17 2024 19:45 utc | 62
Au secours, la France mon beau et doux pays est dirigé par un malade mental, sniffeur de coke et marie avec un transexuel.
Posted by: Dubourg | Mar 17 2024 19:45 utc | 63
Posted by: Dubourg | Mar 17 2024 19:45 utc | 62/63
Et ce malade mental qui sniffe de la coke et marié à une transsexuelle, est directement responsable de l'anéantissement prochain de Toulouse.
Posted by: Matthew | Mar 17 2024 19:50 utc | 64
Some washing powder manufacturers monopolize supermarket shelves. They sell the same washing powder under half a dozen different brands, in order to get maximum shelf space for themselves, and push out competitors. Don't know why this crossed my mind reading this blog.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 17 2024 20:10 utc | 65
FREE DRINKS AT THE BAR ALL EVENING FOLKS!
To celebrate the re-election of President Putin
🅔🅝🅙🅞🅨
Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 17 2024 20:17 utc | 66
People in Sumy are starting to question the wisdom of turning Kursk and Belgorod into active combat zones. Many people are beginning to speculate that it's a ploy by the Western Ukrainians for Russia to destroy the Russian speaking parts of Eastern Ukraine. Many civilians have started to leave the area.
Scorched Earth, that's USA UK Brussels fallback plan, leave Russia land that looks like the surface of the Moon.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 17 2024 20:20 utc | 67
gigi @ 20
I would guess three months if they can get the replacement parts. It depends on the extent of the damage. Some of the strikes were to tank farms which are fairly inconsequential. Usually there are a plethora of unused tanks in tank farms that can be brought into service
It takes an army of skilled workers to make these types of repairs. Motors, pumps, valves, compressors, control wiring, and control systems probably took the brunt of the damage. If the columns and vessels are destroyed it would take longer. Pipes not so much.
Different refineries in the US usually manage their maintenace projects by staggering which which refinery goes into maintenance mode due to the lack of skilled workers to run such projects. These projects are planned long in advance with parts purchased and vessels delivered before maintenance starts.
With so many refineries down and with imports of refinery equipment cut off they will have trouble. The export of refinery equipment has been blocked and that has to hurt as well. On the other hand it gives China a chance to build its refinery equipment market to compete with the West.
I am sure some eneterprising individulas will export the needed equipment through China and mark it up. Meanwhile global prices will go up. The oil press keeps a close eye on these issues so they can make money on their options. Time will tell.
I suspect some of these drones were launched from units operating inside Russia. They certainly need to move to war footing internally if they want to protect their critical fragile infrastructure.
Posted by: circumspect | Mar 17 2024 20:25 utc | 69
Au secours, la France mon beau et doux pays est dirigé par un malade mental, sniffeur de coke et marie avec un transexuel.
Posted by: Dubourg | Mar 17 2024 19:45 utc | 63
C'est un problème qui se résout tout a fait seul. Dans quelques années, le président de la France sera un homme sain d'esprit, qui ne consomme ni drogue ni alcool et de moeurs et coutumes traditionnelles. Certes, il ne sera pas français, mais personne n'est parfait.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 17 2024 20:30 utc | 70
The defense west of Avdeevka that slowed Russia down was a wave of counter attacks. And that’s because there weren’t prepared defensive lines for those retreating troops. Everyone has consistently commented that preparing a large scale breakthrough is difficult on the modern battlefield because it requires concentrating forces and equipment. Had Russia done that and there was a successful HIMARS strike, people like shadowbanned would be here immediately to tell us how dumb the Russian MoD is. Instead the crew tells us how dumb they are because they didn’t exploit the fall of Avdeevka.
Posted by: Lex | Mar 17 2024 20:30 utc | 71
Some interesting memes surfacing about the corruption in the Russian 2024 elections, but the evidence presented comes from the establishment’s fortifying of the 2020 elections in the US. There is definitely a seismic shift occurring, with tremors increasingly starting to radiate from across SM.
Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 20:31 utc | 72
This CNN headline on the MS greeting page caught my eye: "Putin set to extend one man-rule in Russia after stage-managed election devoid of credible opposition." First sentence "President Vladimir Putin is set to tighten his grip on the country he has ruled since the turn of the century, with early results from Russia’s stage-managed election indicating a predictably large victory for the Kremlin leader in a result that was a foregone conclusion."
Yes, they never stop with their alternate reality. America must have its enemy.
Posted by: Mike R | Mar 17 2024 20:47 utc | 73
its passivity and weakness (not to say cowardice) is pushing us all into the abyss. Paul Craig Roberts was right.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 17 2024 16:11 utc | 10
Russia must play this game. It cannot escalate against the stronger opponent. Russia can only go nuclear against the West. Conventionally, Russia is weaker against the whole NATO and France is too far away.
So this slow strategy is the only Russian option.
They need to destroy just UKarine, and make life inside Ukarine impossible.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 17 2024 20:49 utc | 74
Bill Clinton praised Putin's honesty:
That is a surprising deviation from the narrative.
Thoughts?
Posted by: Afro | Mar 17 2024 14:58 utc | 2
---------------------------------------------
Interesting. Deviating from the stupid Western narratives is a luxury, a luxury of self-respect that only someone like Bill Clinton can afford.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Mar 17 2024 15:18 utc | 5
------------------------------------------------------
The Russians honor all their agreements with great care. Hard not to notice, just like conformance to the Western Russophobia creed. They are still selling Uranium to the US to keep our powerplants going.
Bill is still free to say what he wants and I am glad he said it.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 17 2024 20:54 utc | 75
So, Russia cannot attack NATO countries.
But that is not the problem.
But the problem is that Russian society doesn't understand that this is a total war.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 17 2024 20:55 utc | 76
3/4 of France would be out on the streets banging pots and pans and cheering his demise.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 17 2024 18:40 utc | 43
I doubt that. Fr (and It) have the oldest or some of the oldest populations on the planet. They are Macaron's supporters, they keep electing him and loved him even more during lockdown when he made fun of the working people pretending to protect the old people. Macaron's voters are pro war, they don't care, the same working losers will go to war. And protests in Fr end with no results anyway
Posted by: rk | Mar 17 2024 20:58 utc | 78
Dima says that the stories about "collapse of Ukraine" are just maskirovka and that Ukraine is preserving shells and that we can accept a huge Ukro offensive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkyPb_wNljM
Posted by: vargas | Mar 17 2024 21:00 utc | 79
Pepe Escobar threw out that in the new administration Lavrov might be replaced. I don't know enough about the pantheon of Russian honchos to make an educated guess and Pepe is usually so far out over his skis he's already in the apre ski bar holding a beer while his tail is still getting off the lift, but if the last two years was 1939-1941, then Russia should best reorganize for 1942-1945. Maybe time for some cold hard bastards for the west to talk to, Naryshkin, Patrushev, Medvedev instead of Lavrov?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbmAlXwoamI
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 17 2024 21:05 utc | 81
vargas @ 79
Dima says that the stories about "collapse of Ukraine" are just maskirovka and that Ukraine is preserving shells and that we can accept a huge Ukro offensive.
Duh. I keep saying it, here it is again, when in the history of warfare is someone running out of men, weapons, and ammunition make such a thing public? Of course it's maskirovka on one side, and propaganda on the other to keep the western sheeple tuned in and forking over money. It's like those old Jerry Lewis telethons where they'd bring out crippled kids to get your emotions up and ask you to send money.
And as for Ukraine dragging people off the street that's propaganda too, or at least anecdotal and minor, but inflated from the pro-Russia side. For a press ganged army that doesn't want to be there someone is sure putting up a hell of a fight.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 17 2024 21:17 utc | 82
The debt bubble will probably implode under pressure of demographics caused lower housing demand, and all the ZIRP real estate debt accumulated during 2009 - 2021, in addition to mass layoffs now in industrial and tech sectors across the west, and the general unsustainability of rising living costs and employment collapse in quantity and quality.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 18:55 utc | 47
--------------------------------------------------
Why so gloomy?
I have learned never to bet against Wall Street. They ran the CIA in the fifties. The latter are still destroying Europe, who knows for how long with WS as beneficiary. The Vietnam War provided the trigger to get the US and the world off the gold standard, much to the chagrin of Western Europe, vassal-Germany helping the US.
Quid Me Vexari? We have a MoA Barfly by that moniker, based on a Latin edition of Mad Magazine, posting today.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 17 2024 21:17 utc | 83
Posted by: rk | Mar 17 2024 20:58 utc | 78
Remember the "yellow vests" protests? French police killed 11 protesters. 14 lost an eye. 143 heavily wounded.
The number of police suicides spiked, too.
We caÄşl ourselves democracies.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 17 2024 21:21 utc | 84
On this election day, a tribute from the late Russian patriot Alexander Solzhenitsyn:
“Putin inherited a ransacked and bewildered country, with a poor and demoralized people. And he started to do what was possible, a slow and gradual restoration. These efforts were not noticed, nor appreciated, immediately. In any case, one is hard-pressed to find examples in history when steps by one country to restore its strength were met favorably by other governments.”
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 17 2024 21:22 utc | 85
More broadly, anybody who has looked into strategic bombardment will not fail to notice how much actually difficult is to deliver a decisive blow against the war making capabilities of a large state with conventional weaponry. The number of potential targets to service is mind boggling and what is actually more critical, less resilient, replaceable etc. can be hard to guess beforehand even if there are some obvious priority targets, such as the fuel industry.
Ukraine taking down Russia with some drones is a fantasy scenario.
Posted by: Satepestage | Mar 17 2024 21:24 utc | 86
Posted by: Down South | Mar 17 2024 16:34 utc | 14
Our source reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have now entered a phase where they are losing more infantry per day than they are mobilizing new ones.
In summer, the deficit can reach a critical 1 to 4 (for one mobilized person there are 4 “departures”.
Thanks for all the info in your post, I'm focusing on the one tidbit I quoted.
Imo, partly due to how near impossible it is to investigate and report on, we see relatively little in the way of commentary as to how the AFU is more and more becoming an army with a large proportion of troops that are referred to as being little more than poorly trained cannon fodder, and less and less a self repairing organic whole that can rebuild its units when they are given some respite, and it is losing the ability to build and maintain an "insitutional memory" throughout itself.
In the past I've made the analogy between Ukraine and a farm, one where the farm has fallen on hard times, and then finally desperate times, wherein the family operating the farm has to eat its seed corn over the winter in order to avoid starving, and burn planks from their barns so as to stay warm.
In a lot of its units that have been battered in combat the AFU can't maintain a high enough number of trained veterans to be sufficient to educate and ingegrate the influx of replacements. And limited training aside, the AFU seems to have been compelled to treat all replacements as being fungible with each other, and the out of commission soldiers they are replacing, even though larger units need an assortment of trained specialists.
Much has been made, and rightly so imo, of Russia's growing ability to parlay its dominance in the air into being a potent adjunct to infantry assaults. In essence, that is just the Russian coalition flexing the power of having a fully rounded out force at the line of contact, and immediately behind it.
But there are other less obvious resources that Russia is employing that the AFU more and more is demonstrating its lack thereof. Drones and electronic countermeasures have in the last year come more to the fore when thorough reporting of how the war is unfolding is being done. But the list of key logistics that are making a difference at the front line is a long one, and Russia is demonstrating that it had the latent and quiescent resources and abilities on hand to fully flesh out a very large army in a reasonable amount of time. Ukraine and NATO, even acting in concert, not so much.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 17 2024 21:27 utc | 87
rk @ 78
Both Macron and Meloni got elected with around 27% of the vote. And, unlike the USA where only 50% of the population vote, affluence is still pretty high in those countries. 3/4 of the people didn't want either of those clowns yet they got into power, Macron, over and over. It's a feature not a bug of Eurolandia. But yeh, I was exaggerating, if the Ruskies dared Kinzhal the French President the French people might be a somewhat miffed even if he's a dick. Be fun to find out though...
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 17 2024 21:28 utc | 88
Posted by: shĐ°dÎżwbanned | Mar 17 2024 18:27 utc | 41
mehehehe I dont like to comment your stuff, but what about the russian bases in africa that have been popping up since 2 years? ;)
Posted by: Macpott | Mar 17 2024 21:33 utc | 89
The Giant Galactic Scale Ponzi that undermines neoliberalism will collapse, and here's a secret, it already has, but they have a new trick, this time they are not going to tell you. No panic, no mass unemployment, no over night breadlines, just a slow creep to destitution. Look around you, get it yet?
The slow managed collapse will allow them to drag it out for decades, which is where the war with China and Russia comes in.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 17 2024 21:37 utc | 90
Russia's oil refinery capacity idled by drone attacks in Q1 seen at 370,500 barrels per day (Reuters)
China's oil refining capacity is 19.3 million barrels per day.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 17 2024 22:00 utc | 91
Posted by: vargas | Mar 17 2024 21:00 utc | 79
Dima needs to chill. How would he know such information?
Remember he needs to create drama to attract viewers and monetize them.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 17 2024 22:10 utc | 92
On Bill Clinton praising Putin's:
Bill Clinton is a communist agent.
Putin is an admitted socialist.
It all fits.
Posted by: Jack A | Mar 17 2024 22:10 utc | 93
I see our resident concern troll ShadowBanned has really hit the panic button @ 41.
One would think if Ukraine can afford to lob missiles at the same city (Belgorod) just 30 km from its border, the Ukrainians have plenty of ammunition to keep the Russians away from the frontlines to Ukraine's eastern and southeastern borders.
Anyway, no point in trying to calm down ShadowBanned as long as the troll keeps revealing NATO tactics and eventually strategy against Moscow.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Mar 17 2024 22:11 utc | 94
Lex Talionis @ 38:
"... There is a rather crazy story on ZH regarding a Ukrainian adult film star doing an event with Ukrainian soldiers wounded in the SMO ..."
For a moment you had me thinking President Zelensky was demonstrating his piano playing abilities to Ukrainian soldiers to show them that all is not lost when you have no arms and/or no legs left.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Mar 17 2024 22:13 utc | 95
Passerby @ 91
Russia's oil refinery capacity idled by drone attacks in Q1 seen at 370,500 barrels per day (Reuters) China's oil refining capacity is 19.3 million barrels per day.
Sean Foo pointed that out too, and it's not much of a problem bringing in refined fuel from China. And China is not a fair-weather friend, if it comes to war with NATO Russia will not lack anything.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 17 2024 22:16 utc | 96
Refineries...
Refineries are those big stills. Everything else just pipes tanks pumps and so forth perhaps some units for removing sulfur and that sort of thing.
Houthi's hit the Saudi stills a few years back. Compared to Houthi's Ukraine and its enablers are running nothing more than a propaganda campaign.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 17 2024 22:22 utc | 97
Russian oil refining capacity approx 7m bpd. Some portion had been taken offline previously to meet OPEC targets. Russia had announced a ban on export of some refined oil products some time back. Estimates of what Ukraine's drones have taken offline is likely inflated, especially as some facilities received only minor damage and will soon be returned to service. Russia surely has strategic reserves as well. What is the impact of Ukrainian sabotage? More than zero, but less than press reports guess in all likelihood.
There was some noise from Russian sources that the private oil concerns had been less serious about defending their facilities than was prudent. If so then they will likely be 'encouraged' to improve such defenses.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 17 2024 22:39 utc | 99
Posted by: shĐ°dÎżwbanned | Mar 17 2024 18:27 utc | 41
I knew the post was yours long before I reached the "posted by" line. Could not bring myself to read it in full length, it's just too long for me. Instead I keep wondering how many of Mikron, Marvin, Capricorne, Satepestage are also pseudonyms of shadowbanned - given the similarity of their complaints, and the fact that I see all those names for the first time here. Well, that's also a way of lending weight to your views, by making it look like all those people agree with you - while, in reality, it has all been written by shadowbanned. I think this method is called astroturfing.
Posted by: grunzt | Mar 17 2024 22:53 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
SlowSoft | Mar 17 2024 14:18 utc | 548
they will appreciate his good will for ceasefire same way like grain deal, minsk 2, ns2,......
Dont remember any head of state with such childish naivity
Other paying a bloody price for vlads naivity
Posted by: tesla | Mar 17 2024 14:52 utc | 1