Russians report Ukrainians are building defensive lines in the Kherson region 10s of kilometers long and have a network of strongholds.

Defense line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kherson region.
Since the capture of these territories, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have thoroughly prepared for defense, creating a defensive line tens of kilometers long.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also creating a whole network of separate large strongholds along the main line of defense.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/116011

Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 10 2024 22:45 utc | 103

The crucial question: How long would it take for Europe to mobilize its meager forces and then transport them to the front?
Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 10 2024 18:13 utc | 34
How much of the younger European generation is of migrant origin? What will the reaction to mobilisation be?
Reliable data seems hard to find.
“Historically, we measured non-UK born population levels using the Annual Population Survey (APS) and published a series of estimates of population by country of birth and nationality based on this source. This was discontinued in October 2022.”
So we’re whistling in the dark.

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 10 2024 22:50 utc | 105

If we assume that Russia uses a tactical nuke, then the west replies with nukes on Russia (say taking out 25% of key nuke sites quickly) and then Russia replies with its doomsday list or equivalent
Posted by: watcher | Mar 10 2024 21:31 utc | 85

Here is what you fail to grasp — the US is not going to nuke Russia over Russia nuking any country other than the US itself.
They will face the choice of losing their empire or dying, and yes, ideally they should not be placed in that situation, but if they are rational, they will choose not dying.
If they are not rational, then, from a Russian perspective, there was no escaping the nuclear war anyway, because then it was always going to come to that.
This means that Poland and Romania could have been evaporated, Ukraine sealed, and all the US would have done is to tuck its tail between its legs and leave it there.
P.S. I only ever called for tactical nukes to seal the borders. If you are to strike e.g. Poland, it has to be strategic, so that nothing survives to demand retaliation.
P.P.S. Russia already used tactical nukes (assuming it was their missiles that detonated in Khmelnytskyi and not NATO warheads that were stored on that site). The US didn’t launch an open nuclear strike on Russia, instead everyone agreed to not comment at all on what happened.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 23:02 utc | 107

https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/1270

March 10
“Black Colonel” V. Alksnis
The main horror story that propagandists use against the use of tactical nuclear weapons by our army in the Northern Military District zone is that they scare us – if the Russian Federation uses tactical nuclear weapons, the immediate provision of such weapons to Ukraine by the United States of America will follow.
By the way, according to my feelings, mostly anti-nuclear propagandists have a Kyiv residence permit and are paid in . TsIPsO (Center for Information and Psychological Operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). They are really frightened by the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia and that is why they come up with such horror stories.
I am forced to upset them, Ukraine will not see any tactical nuclear weapons – the answer, if there is one, will be NON-NUCLEAR.
The other day, interesting information appeared in the American media on this matter:
“… American officials, during a period of concern about the possibility of a potential nuclear strike by the Russian Federation on Ukraine, considered a non-nuclear response as a retaliatory step, including a “conventional” attack on units that “launched nuclear weapons,” writes the New York Times, citing administration officials: “Administration officials said the US response must be non-nuclear. But they quickly added that there would have to be some kind of dramatic response – perhaps even a conventional attack on the units that launched the nuclear weapons.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 23:09 utc | 109

The question for NATO will be what mobilisation will do with an entirely untrained Population. Germany ended the draft about 20 years ago. Short of declaring invasion every draftee can object, a lot would. Just mustering and the medical exams would be a nightmare. Once draftees are trained, what to equip them with?
I fondly remember the draftees lining up at roll call with a third in olive drab, a third in camo and the remaining in cute blue training dresses because no boots were available.
Basic training in Feb without carcinogenic gloves also wasn’t particularly effective.
Firing 28 shots in 9 months also doesn’t inspire confidence in the basic training either. Those were the troops supposed to be mobilized in 6 to 9 month after start of a conflict.
Kind of a gap to the 10 days of ammo there are. Even more of a gap to the 5 years it would take to produce artillery and ammo.
Even if Germany sent the Bundeswehr to the “home front” near Kiev and Belarus they would be barely 60km from the Russian border. Daily pot shots with drones would set in pretty quickly, this would look quite ugly.
With the “professional” troops it also won’t take long until the first Nazi badges and tattoos show up either.
I have no idea what a Bundeswehr general would tell the Chancellor about readiness, the risk profile or scenarios.
You wonder how this looks for Denmark or the French.. “oui, mon general”.
Memories of Maginot.
It’s also clear that the US just exited left, Elvis has left the building.. these body bags will be ours.
I wonder how the EU service economy would fare when 40% of GDP have to go to the military.. goodbye welfare state, hello war bonds, we gave gold for iron.
Maybe I have to watch talk shows again to get an idea what our politicians are “thinking”.

Posted by: SOS | Mar 10 2024 23:13 utc | 111

In the end, this war shall become a nuclear war.
We all know that,

Posted by: vargas | Mar 10 2024 23:16 utc | 113

Post 11 has the Vietnam analogy the wrong way round . It’s the South Vietnamese Diem regime which is like Kyiv because they’re both US proxies.

Posted by: Mr T J Putnam | Mar 10 2024 23:19 utc | 115

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 10 2024 20:17 utc | 62
##############
I presume nuclear strikes will have redundancies. It is unlikely that each city only get hit once.
And for massive damage, hitting those areas of communication, transport, and energy generation are likely priorities.
Not a lot of value in nuking Kiev or DC when hitting the infrastructure will accomplish the same thing in a much larger area.
Don’t overlook the value of EMPs over areas of high technological density.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 10 2024 23:39 utc | 117

The US, militarily speaking, could have won the war,
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 10 2024 20:20 utc | 64
Physiology plays a big part in any military. Perhaps the UDS could have won by total genocide perhaps not. The US, militarily speaking, could have won the war,
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 10 2024 20:20 utc | 64
————————————————————————–
Physiology plays a big part in any military. Perhaps the UDS could have won by total genocide perhaps not. The Vietnam were defending home soil, the Americans were not.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 20:41 utc | 68
==================================================
There was a DMZ serving as a boundary between South and North. The North came South, which was not home soil. JFK may have had Diem (South) assassinated, maybe not. Followed by another corrupt leader inviting more visitors from up North. The Viet Cong were armed local, loyal opposition. NVA brought them arms and military bodies and indoctrination lessons. The SVA army did not much believe in warfare letting the US do most of the bloody work.
I stand by my analysis. Reading up on stories by mid-level US military participants convinced me of the military part of the story. The political part is another story, well rehearsed.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 11 2024 0:09 utc | 119

Some videos for today.
The Kiev regime continues shelling civilian areas of Donetsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/edf4cf111b5df6a00ecdb3c3ef5db785/
Russian D-30 howitzer conducts counter-battery fire near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/e137522533a2935d16e97780c2089820/
Russian Grad launchers firing at night on the southern DPR front:
https://rutube.ru/video/233bc52f611977d23b71e6773ab5dddb/
Russian Mi-8 and Mi-35 helicopters in action near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/ab3174ce35dedba2da0a44b02c070b3c/

Posted by: Nate | Mar 11 2024 0:17 utc | 121

In conclusion, I respect SB’s argument and believe it may be correct in isolation. “Tit for tat” responses have their place. However, there are a lot of counter-arguments that lead me to think that it would be wise to look at the bigger strategic picture when considering the question of why Russia does not immediately retaliate with equal or greater force when it suffers a tactical loss.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 10 2024 21:53 utc | 91
————————————————————
SB is likely a collective of MI6 social media ‘influencers,’ as some of us, me included have suggested.
You would do well perusing past discussions in this space of ‘Tit for Tat’ (TFT) which has been extensive. Every single time, SB pushes TFT as a mantra. The past discussion certainly warrants your perusal. Showing lack thereof might explain your view of SB.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 11 2024 0:26 utc | 123

The whole idea of attrition is a bit ridiculous actually.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 11
————————————————–
Not at all. That’s a daft statement. It’s the fundamental necessity of demilitarisation (killing fighters who refuse to surrender, and whose government won’t disarm by agreement) and denazification (killing fighters who refuse to surrender, and whose government won’t denazify by agreement).
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 10 2024 22:46 utc | 104
———————————————————-
War is about taking away the enemy’s will to fight. (Old quote).

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 11 2024 0:30 utc | 125

Lovedonbas
Nuclear war!
Hiroshima bomb was 15 kilotons, killed 80,000 plus.
Bombs nor are at least 40 it, some much larger.
USA in whole country has 80000 ICU beds.
One big city would need more from a 40 it…..
Let genocide Joe get his war!

Posted by: paddy | Mar 11 2024 0:37 utc | 127

Re Ships vs Sea Drones.
Might not adding suitable armourplate, or even reactive armour, along the waterline not work? This could feasibly be done even *in the water* at Rostov shipyards. Of course size and height above waterline of attacking explosive must be considered. Perhaps super-plated troop barges could be built to storm Odessa with ferocious air support after artillery and HIMARS are neutralised. Little defensive EW and antidrone gun port holes at waterline could be built into the next generation of warships, or even retro-fitted.
CC’d to RFMoD. 🙂

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 11 2024 0:41 utc | 129

I stand by my analysis. Reading up on stories by mid-level US military participants convinced me of the military part of the story. The political part is another story, well rehearsed.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 11 2024 0:09 utc | 119
If there is little will to fight, no amount of firepower on paper will make up for it.
That is just part of the psychology of war. War can’t be looked at as purely military equipment and mindless human zombies to man it.
We see that time and again.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 11 2024 0:46 utc | 131

All you guys speaking of Nuke war are missing a very important point. Everything RF has done so far is about keeping ROW on-side. RF won’t be the initiator, however if the other side starts it, RF will happily oblige in ending it. And btw MAD likely doesn’t apply. Better weapon delivery as well as defense. It will just take a few responses for the toothless tiger to be exposed and the wars end. Are they stupid enough to let RF expose them? Unlikely.

Posted by: MG | Mar 11 2024 0:54 utc | 133

But didn’t the USAF, US ground forces, and ARVN make a serious effort to sever the Ho Chi Minh trail, and strangle the NVA/VC logistics lifeline? As best I recall, US and South Vietnamese forces did indeed aim for this strategic goal, but failed.
Correct me if I’m wrong. But my impression is that NVA/VC’s tenacity in keeping the trail open was one of the chief reasons the US ultimately concluded that the war as unwinnable.
Posted by: GW | Mar 10 2024 20:45 utc | 70
——————————————————–
On again/Off again interdiction was dictated by politics in DC (imagine Kissinger selecting targets) as well as MACV in Saigon. The pilots were angry as all can be with bad targeting (McNamara’s listening posts turned a lot of trees into toothpicks) and interruptions when they were doing well. The Ho Chi Min trail was expanded to go through Laos and declared off-limits, except for some black ops. There is a lot more and it makes me angry to be reminded of the waste of life and treasure. Carpet bombing by the B-52s was very effective in some areas. I prefer not to get started.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 11 2024 1:00 utc | 135

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 11 2024 0:26 utc | 123
> SB is likely a collective of MI6 social media ‘influencers,’ as some of us, me included have suggested.
I do not understand why MI6 would waste their time and resources on us here.

Posted by: hopehely | Mar 11 2024 1:04 utc | 137

Shadowbaned,
What’s your assessment of the situation with Pashinyan in Armenia? How do you think Putin should handle it?
Posted by: Afro | Mar 11 2024 0:16 utc | 120

Armenia has two paths forward:
1) Applying for admission into the RF as an autonomous republic
2) The Turks and the Azeris finishing what they started in 1915 and a new greatly enlarged Turkish state appearing through the merger of Turkey and Azerbaijan and the absorption of Armenia (with zero Armenians being left on that territory).
Option #2 is a total red line for both Russia and Iran and absolutely must be prevented.
But Pashinyan is conducting exactly the kind of policies that inevitably lead to it. Worse, he is doing it boiling the frog style, bit by bit. Six months ago it was surrendering Karabakh, three years ago it was not really fighting in the war that sealed Karabakh’s fate, at the moment the discussion is about ceding a handful of additional villages to the Azeris, next on the agenda will be the Zangezur corridor.
The Azeri intentions are made absolutely clear and open — they have repeatedly referred to Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan”.
But if they invade Armenia now, Russia will be in a tough spot, with Armenians officially adopting a hostile position towards Russia and Russia distracted by the war in Ukraine. Plus they don’t even have a direct border, they have to go over Georgia, which is not exactly a friendly state either. Azerbaijan is not an easy opponent — it has been heavily armed by the Turks and the Israelis, and you need to get over the mountains and then you are in totally hostile territory as the Azeris are Turks, not Slavs, and most of them have been born during the demographic boom after the USSR collapsed, i.e. they have zero affinity towards Russia, unlike many Ukrainians. You are left with stand off strategic bombing as the main option to exert pressure.
Ideally the Azeris attack Armenia, then the Russians and the Iranians join forces, absolutely crush them, and Azerbaijan is subsequently partitioned — the Russians take over the mountains and the plain northeast of them, which are mostly populated by Avars and Lezghis anyway, Iran takes the rest (most ethnic Azeris actually already live in Iran and are generally loyal and well integrated — e.g. even Khamenei is of Azeri origin), and then they deal with the problem internally. But would they really want to, and will Turkey stay out of it if it comes to that?
If neither the Iranians nor the Russians do anything militarily, and Pashinyan relies on the French to save him, Armenia will be no more.
But again, they have a relatively clean way out of this — apply to join the RF. Then the Turks and the Azeris would have to go to war with Russia, which they will not dare do. Given that the other option is total annihilation, and that nobody will do anything bad to them inside the RF — Armenians will keep their language, local institution, etc. — it is the much preferable option. It is how they were saved from total extinction previously, though it was Russia actively conquering the territory back then, even if they have forgotten it by now. But it not an option with Pashinyan in power.
This whole clusterfuck is a perfect illustration of the point about reactive versus proactive policies that was discussed previously in the thread. How did the Kremlin allow this situation to develop in the first place? How do you fall sleep on this one? I know the usual argument — the USSR got tired of expending its precious resources on fixing other people’s messes. But it doesn’t work like that in the real world — if you do not defend the near abroad from encroachment, you will lose it, and then the attacks will move onto your own territory.
In this case the long-term Turkish game plan is to first merge with Azerbaijan and thus gain access to the Caspian (thus the vital importance of the Zangezur corridor, and the total idiocy of whoever agreed on Nakhichevan having a direct border with Turkey — something that was specifically insisted on when the post-WWI demarcation treaties were being signed, which tells you that already a century ago some people saw where things would eventually go, it was that obvious). Then they have a direct link to the Turkish *-stans in Central Asia (only Tajikistan is Persian, the others are Turkic). From there they can gain control over those — a process already in motion culturally, as they watch a lot of Turkish TV and movies in those countries. Which would be a gigantic geostrategic defeat for Russia. It wouldn’t stop there — inside Russia you have Chuvash, Tatars, Bashkirs, Altais, Tuvans, Yakuts, etc. Some of them have already exhibited serious secessionist tendencies in the past, now imagine how it would be if the pan-Turkic program gains serious momentum.
You see how that can snowball in the long run, all as a result of ceding control over that narrow strip of land that is southern Armenia.
It’s absolutely not a minor manner.
But the Kremlin might once again be saved by external factors (e.g. Boris Johnson saved Russia from Putin two years ago), though in this case friendly — this is existential for Iran too, again because of its own huge Azeri minority (it’s 20% of the Iranian population and occupies most of the north of the country), so if the Kremlin decides to yet again resort to its usual solution — that is, if we aggressively ignore the problem, it will go away on its own — the Iranians will not sit idle.
How it will play exactly I have no idea though.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 11 2024 1:06 utc | 139

In case of @107, Russia using taxtical nukes @Khmelnytskyi. Every sane person would think: big weapon dump being blown up, probably with DU ammution. But SB just believes the unbelievable and states this as a random quasi-fact. Yeah. It’s the mass Media news principle 🙂 just repeat the lie often enough, someone will believe.
Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Mar 11 2024 1:05 utc | 138

We’ve had literally hundreds of ammo dump explosions on video, including some huge Russian ones in the summer of 2022 when HIMARS appeared and the Russians were still too slow to adapt and distribute logistics.
None of them sent a column of bright red plasma high into the sky like that, plus usually there are lots of secondary explosions. And there should have been lots of those in this case too, as the ammo depot consisted of several dozen separate storage units, most of them separated by their own earthen embankments. It wouldn’t have been just two massive explosions.
This one was nothing like that.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 11 2024 1:11 utc | 141

The main problem I have with SB’s argument is he always goes directly to nuclear weapons. There are many pressure points Russia can use to retaliate in tit for tat. Many of these we will never see, or know they have taken place. It does not necessarily mean escalation to full-scale nuclear war.
Posted by: James M. | Mar 11 2024 0:41 utc | 130

I am all for non-nuclear response before it becomes unavoidable to use nukes.
Do you see such responses though? I don’t.
Could have at least had Mr. Iskander pay a visit to the Czech embassy in Kiev to personally express the Kremlin’s gratitudes for the Czech FM publicly laughing im Russia’s face about the New Year bombing in Belgorod.
Didn’t even do that.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 11 2024 1:11 utc | 143

Jake Blanchard | Mar 11 2024 0:41 utc | 129
I think with the progression in explosives technology we have seen, armour has mostly seen its day, similar the the medieval knights and so forth. Tanksw and things will still be armoured but will have to rely on active defense against dedicated anti tank weapons.
Using a plasma cutter a bit at the workshop for blowing off trussed and dirty bits of steel gives me a bit of respect for shaped charges. The very high temperature plasma just employed by them will cut through steel and ceramic alike. Tandem warheads bypass reactive armour.
If ships beefed up with armour, the surface drones used would be modified accordingly. Perhaps some for of mesh as we’ve seen employed on armoured vehicles can be used as a stopgap measure but what is required is active defense and tactics specifically for the new threat.
I believe is was around 13 naval drones that attacked the last Russian ship. It seems these things, being very low to the water and what is above the water mostly plastics would have a very small radar signature and be difficult to detect in choppy water. Possibly a specialized radar or at least software mods to existing radar as had to be done with the Pantsirs. And that mounted on a very fast multi barrel autocanon. Pantsir guns very likely not sufficient rate of fire for a swarming attack with too much time spent on each target.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 11 2024 1:15 utc | 145

@karlof1 | Mar 11 2024 0:52 utc | 132,

How long will the economic implosion take? How long will the EU last with a rapidly growing negative balance of payments that can’t be printed away?

I am afraid that it will take much longer than you think and to the point that EU or the western europe becomes more or less irrelevant at the world stage. If people in the EU have not been brainwashed to live happily with
FREEDOM and DEMOCRACY, brought to you by amerikkkans (TM)!!, they will be soon.

Posted by: LuRenJia | Mar 11 2024 1:20 utc | 147

Peter AU1@145
It will be interesting to see if the new commander and his team can field a timely solution.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 11 2024 1:27 utc | 149

Shadowbaned thank you for post #139. Is Pashinyan just a puppet?
Karlof, I don’t agree that the question of Armenia is off topic, or at least not obviously so. I suspect that for a lot of people in Langley, Armenia is a different front to the Ukraine conflict, all focused on “weakening” Russia. Perhaps I’m wrong, but if this was 2008 would it have been ok to ask about Ukraine in the Georgia thread? We also have comments about Moldova and Poland in here.

Posted by: Afro | Mar 11 2024 1:30 utc | 151

Yes Pine Gap is important and several secret sites especially in WA, but I am inclined to think that if we are talking about a nuclear exchange lasting 48 hours …
Posted by: watcher | Mar 10 2024 22:43 utc | 102
Pine Gap is part of US advanced early warning and in-war tracking facility for anywhere the Northern Hemisphere can’t see, PLUS satellite to sattelite links. Sure, it has no nukes, but with Russia’s new via-the-south-pole ICBMs, it is VERY IMPORTANT to the Outlaw Empire.
Say Russia intended to strike mainland US (or some more southerly missile base) via its southern flight path, Pine Gap would be disabled ***JUST BEFORE*** their sneaky ICBMs appeared on US radars and/or to disable sattelite links. In nuke war, early warning would be the FIRST to go.
Only the Pentagon and Kremlin know what part Pine Gap might play in 0 – 48 hours. Probably even Canberra doesn’t know! Just no point in guessing from our loungerooms.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 11 2024 1:35 utc | 153

karlof1 | Mar 11 2024 0:52 utc | 132
Its difficult to put a timeline on it but certainly see the rush toward economic collapse speeding up now. More and more in Europe are starting to wake up to where their elite has led them. The desperation amount the Euro elite now that US has pulled the plug on the Ukraine project. Perhaps major turmoil throughout parts of Europe when when Ukraine frontlines collapse…
For the US much depends on how long the elite can maintain public faith in speculation bubbles which is all that that is behind the facade of the US economy. That faith goes and the whole thing collapses like a house of cards.
There has been a constant flow of gold from the west to the east, especially since the start of the SMO. Gold prices constantly rising.
At or just before the start of the SMO both the US and British governments said no bank was two big to fail and there would be no more bailouts. Along with the sanctions. I thought that was sure to collapse British and US economies but they were party poopers and bailed out some financial institutions – at least to sufficient extent to prevent a domino like collapse.
On top of that, the US simply ignored a number of its own sanctions on Russia – waivers and so forth.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 11 2024 1:38 utc | 155

In the end, this war shall become a nuclear war. We all know that,
Posted by: vargas | Mar 10 2024 23:16 utc | 113
No, *WE ALL* don’t know that. Get out from under your kitchen table, stop thinking like a fearful indoctrinated pussy, and start to think things through intelligently. Even sb doesnt say *it will* end up nuclear … unless he ends up running the Kremlin! And that’s as equally likely as Putin or Biden striking first. Wake up, idiot!

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 11 2024 2:06 utc | 157

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 23:45 utc | 118
Word perfect, imho, Peter.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 11 2024 2:23 utc | 159

Re: Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 10 2024 20:12 utc | 61

You’re a ball of confusion Mr Shadow. Is it “decisive action”, “not proactive” or “reactive” and how is Russia liberating Crimea and Donbas painting themselves into a corner?

You obviously know very little about recent history HERMIUS.
The ONLY reason Russia liberated Crimea and Donbas was as a REACTION to what The West did in Ukraine.
There was a coup in Ukraine and The West took control of Ukraine.
Prior to the coup in Ukraine in 2014 Russia effectively controlled 100% of Ukraine – after the coup, and until now, Russia has never controlled more than 25% of Ukraine.
Russia’s reaction to the coup – liberating Crimea and supporting Donbas – has only returned a fraction of Ukraine to Russian influence.
The fact you are completely ignorant that there was a coup in Ukraine in 2014 is pretty astonishing.
Why do you think Russia liberated Crimea and supported Donbas?
I’ll be interested to know your answer – both of these actions were 100% REACTION – yes, they were decisive actions – but entirely REACTIVE.

Posted by: Julian | Mar 11 2024 2:38 utc | 161

I’ll be interested to know your answer – both of these actions were 100% REACTION – yes, they were decisive actions – but entirely REACTIVE.
Posted by: Julian | Mar 11 2024 2:38 utc | 161
Yes, I know. Everything in life is a “reaction” Mr Julian. Thats what I’m saying. The people of Crimea, for example, reacted to the violent Right Sector thugs who attacked coaches returning from Kiev, during Maydan, who had staged a counter-Maydan protest. All the people on the coaches were crimeans. They were forced out the coaches told to kneel and sing the Ukraine national anthem. Humiliation creates a powerful emotion the victim. Anyway, that event was the straw that broke the camels back, so-to-speak. Thus the people of Crimea rose up and took control of their own lives.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 11 2024 2:55 utc | 163

March has three weeks to go. That should be enough time for Europe to decide what it ought to do.
Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 11 2024 0:26 utc | 122

Very good summary Karlof1. By the way, I also very much like your articles on the speeches by Putin and Lavrov,
My feeling is that Kiev is preparing a new counter offensive later this year. NATO countries might very gradually deploy additional troops in Ukraine until the EU starts to feel real pain and leaves it there, after more thousahd troops loose their lives in the process.
The logic here is that the politicians of Europe are bound by their poor decisions of the past to support Ukraihe. The next decisiohs are going to be taken at lower levels and without good coordination. NATO will get more freedom to direct the armed forces. Anyway the allegiance of the personnel in the NATO forces is largely, in my view, an allegiance to NATO/US above the home country. Individual countries will start noticing only after the number of national casualties cross some level,

Posted by: Richard L | Mar 11 2024 3:16 utc | 165

Do you see such responses though? I don’t.
Could have at least had Mr. Iskander pay a visit to the Czech embassy in Kiev to personally express the Kremlin’s gratitudes for the Czech FM publicly laughing im Russia’s face about the New Year bombing in Belgorod.
Didn’t even do that.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 11 2024 1:11 utc | 143
So you’re thinking of a “non-nuclear response” is still a missile launched at a NATO member state (yes an embassy is the territory of a member state), which would trigger Article V. How is that a tit for tat response? The US hasn’t fired any missiles at Russia.
This is a proxy war – so proxies would carry out any response Russia has in mind.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 11 2024 3:26 utc | 167

Barrel Brown | Mar 11 2024 3:28 utc | 168
A few here simply come across as being anti authority/anti government but post on a range of topics.
Shadow spammer posts only on the Ukraine threads for the sole purpose of discrediting the Russian leadership. Civilian and military. Has no problems using ukroid links to back up its assertions. After the ghost of Kiev and having tracked a number of early bayracktar videos back to Azerbajan/Armenia/ libya ect, I work on the principle of kill it all and let god or hindsight sort fact from fiction.
A very definite agenda on the part of the spammer.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 11 2024 3:43 utc | 169

@Jack A | Mar 10 2024 20:07 utc | 59
When I asked the same question back in November, one of the veteran posters on MoA explained that most of the crowd on this site are on the left side of the political spectrum, and folks on the left look at issues from a group identity perspective–Russian good, Jew bad, etc. It seems strange to those who try to look at issues and apply general principles to understand what’s happening and what should be done (national sovereignty, right of self-defense, etc.) Kind of weird, but if you hang out on this site you’ll get used to it.

Posted by: Paranaense | Mar 11 2024 3:51 utc | 171

167
proxy war, red lines, article 5,…..
who cares?
western partners re lying, manipulating, performing terrorist attacks on russian soil, ……

Posted by: tesla | Mar 11 2024 4:05 utc | 173

Paranaense | Mar 11 2024 3:51 utc | 171
And who would that ‘veteran’ poster be? Don’t worry, if the post I remember is the one you are referring to…. A couple of communists post here, most. lt’s just one mostly now but they’re ok. A number of an older left. Very little difference between conservative right and conservative left if any. The newbie American right, they go in a grouping of their own. Its usually only Americans that divide everything into left and right. Left bad, right good and vice versa.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 11 2024 4:10 utc | 175
Come now, Peter. Are the Aussies really so much more politically advanced?

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Mar 11 2024 4:16 utc | 175

western partners re lying, manipulating, performing terrorist attacks on russian soil, ……
Posted by: tesla | Mar 11 2024 4:05 utc | 174
So the response would be the same, not a nuclear-tipped missile to DC. Russia has many proxies in the world, many pressure points to cause pain for the West.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 11 2024 4:43 utc | 177

Last night my time on the last Ukraine thread I posted the following comment that I want to follow up on
Reuters has a posting up with the title
Pope says Ukraine should have ‘courage of the white flag’ of negotiations
the sub-title

Francis made his comments in an interview recorded last month with Swiss broadcaster RSI. It is due to be broadcast on March 20.

On my dance card, I have Pope Frank as part of the God Of Mammon cult and so I see this as significant.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 9 2024 23:51 utc | 263
Today ZH has a posting up with the title
Pope Francis Urges Ukraine To Have ‘Courage Of The White Flag’ & Negotiate End To War
The quote

Pope Francis has sparked fresh controversy after he said in a new interview published Saturday that Ukraine should have the “courage” to sit at the negotiating table with Russia and end the war through a peace agreement.
In particular his referencing the “white flag” is drawing outrage from European and Ukraine officials. “I think that the strongest one is the one who looks at the situation, thinks about the people and has the courage of the white flag, and negotiates,” Francis told Swiss broadcaster RSI.
….
Almost immediately in the wake of the interview being released, the pope was widely accused of siding with Russia. For example, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski posted on X, “How about, for balance, encouraging Putin to have the courage to withdraw his army from Ukraine? Peace would immediately ensue without the need for negotiations.”
As The Associated Press noted on Sunday, Ukrainian officials agreed with statements comparing to the Pope’s comments to being willing to compromise with Hitler:

In a separate post, Sikorski drew parallels between those calling for negotiations while “denying (Ukraine) the means to defend itself” and European leaders’ “appeasement” of Adolf Hitler just before World War II.
Andrii Yurash, Ukraine’s ambassador to the Holy See, said that it was “necessary to learn lessons” from that conflict. His post on X appeared to compare the pope’s comments to calls for “talking with Hitler” while raising “a white flag to satisfy him.”

Pope Frank’s comments are part of some strategy as indicated by saying the comments were originally scheduled to be released March 20 and, as bolded above, we see that they were published Saturday, the 9th.
I continue to posit we are watching end game in Ukraine currently unless NATO steps in and I don’t see that happening….and if it does happen it may be the defining moment in the SMO.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 11 2024 4:57 utc | 179

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-31124-patriots-blown-up-as
No worries. Putin got that message that Odessa and Black Sea belongs to NATO so he won’t cross that red line. He knows when NATO means NO.

Posted by: Surferket | Mar 11 2024 5:12 utc | 181

As always in the last two years, Russia is reacting, not acting. And its adversaries are growing bolder every day.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 11
Reaction is an action. It is called learning. You mock Russian water power being diminished at the same time as stating the obvious: the whole nature of war has changed.
Well it’s that change that has knocked Russian seapower. i.e. Russian seapower goes down but so does everyone else’s.
You are kinda mixing by inference past and present: inferring that Kiev ( I refuse to call it Ukraine. The Ukraine it claims to be includes 10 million people it declared ethnocide on ) has won a naval victory by ‘defeating their fleet’ which is past reality as used to be and bringing it to the present where it doesn’t belong. Naval realities much different.
I think Russia’s only real adversaries are the lunatic ‘leaders’ we see on display who are really merely sycophants to the Americans and those behind the scenes oligarchs or mega money things like Blackrock.
By which I mean the millions of the western world are not Russia’s adversaries at all. Their biggest sin, and it is a pretty big once (witness Israel) is disinterest and apathy. They’ll walk like sheep up the race to the slaughter floor. And they’re doing it in Ukraine.
But they are not ‘getting bolder’. Perhaps unfortunately, you know?
The ‘getting bolder’ is only on the part of the lunatic ‘leaders’. You have to put it in quotes nowadays. There’s not a leader amongst them.
And they are getting found out. They are doomed to extinction.
Don’t worry. Russia’s effort here don’t forget is Donbas Ukrainians effort – 10 million of them. It’s the effort of many all around the world. It is working. It grows stronger day by day.
We’re sort of watching a street fight if you like. Ever seen one? Got to have lived in more primitive times and more primitive places than perhaps you have. I don’t know.
But we’re watching a street fight. And we’re seeing a couple of staunch allies fend off the attacks of over 30 nations and we’re watching the tactics they employ and we’re making decisions as to whom we think is the worthy party in this conflict.
Ever been there? Ring a bell? The mob comes to a consensus. An understanding. A judgement. Right? You can feel it. You all feel it. It grows like the mutter, the murmur in a football crowd when they see foul play.
The world is watching, I think. The world is the crowd. The mob. And day by day they see more clearly the utter foulness of the west.
That’s the world. For sure. Part of the crowd, a tiny part of the crowd, is the Western populations. They’re the most unaware and dumbest of all. But like an ink stain spreading through blotting paper even they are beginning to see.
It is fairly inescapable when Kiev kills thousands and thousands of children in Gaza and that’s how it reads to them. They conflate the two. As they should. It is the same overseer in Kiev and Tel Aviv orchestrates the same anti human violence. You approve of the USA in Kiev means you approve of murdering in the most horrible ways the children in Gaza. Inescapable.
I’d say don’t worry. At the most horrific cost it will all come good in the end and what’s ‘come good’ mean? ‘Ukraine’ wins? (meaning Kiev, not Ukraine, Ukraine lost the minute it decided on civi war ethnocide) Russia wins ( meaning Russia and 10 million donbas Ukrainians) ? No. What the world needs now is for the western masses to wake up. That will be the victory. That’s how I see it.

Posted by: arthur brogard | Mar 11 2024 5:53 utc | 183

@ Doctor Eleven | Mar 11 2024 5:14 utc | 183 with the nice response to the OT thread obfuscate and lie barflea…thanks
Not quite as smarmy as ShaddowBS who continues to cast bad light on the MoA commenters with their ongoing pushing of nuclear actions by Russia when it is Western empire with the cult of barbarians that would consider and have already used nukes to defend their anti-humanistic form of social organization.
ShaddowBS is paid to be an ongoing disservice to this blog as is evidenced by the volume of ongoing nuke drum beating here when most barflies are quite conscious of our MAD world where tactical nukes are a myth…

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 11 2024 6:01 utc | 185

….And it is clearly the best strategy…,
yeah right the very best strategy where russia has lost 100k own soldiers and another 100k ve been wounded
What a price for denazification & demilitarization
Seems like the small man in kremlin is running a SMO 2.0 for russian male under a hidden slogan „demalefication“
Posted by: tesla | Mar 11 2024 3:56 utc | 173
—————–
Lol, even if those ass-pull numbers were true. We’re talking about a country of 150 million.
Even before you factor in pro- Russian Ukr refuges & territory/population gain.
In perspective Greater Germany with about half the population of the RF, lost over 100’000 taking Poland & France etc.
They figured they got off lightly.
—————
No worries. Putin got that message that Odessa and Black Sea belongs to NATO so he won’t cross that red line. He knows when NATO means NO.
Posted by: Surferket | Mar 11 2024 5:12 utc | 182
——————–
Um no, at that point the paltry forces NATO could deploy would be a scant obstacle.
After all, an RF approach to Odessa. Has the AFU being shattered as a prerequisite.
Kiev is a different matter, but if the RF decides to go for, they’ll not be stopping because a handful of Euro-NATO’s hired-hands happen to be standing nearby.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Mar 11 2024 6:38 utc | 187

What would be the right timeframe to consider the events in and around the war in Ukraine?
Is it a never-ending SloMo, with its alternating successes and failures?
Or is there another one? The one which sees consolidation of the EU under NATO in 10-15-20 years? The one for which current events are just a preliminary act, a justification?
It would see the submission, impoverishment of the peoples – and even deeper corruption of political class – of Europe just the way that finally led to the Maidan in Kiev, Ukraine.
This brings up another question: could Russia survive a new cold war which – supposing the West would somehow be able to keep the financial reigns of the World – would eventually lead to the same corruption and disillusionment that finally destroyed the Soviet Union?
***
And if Europe owns the war in Ukraine in its totality – acting like it is nations not NATO –, would it mean that US intelligence assets like Starlink are safe from harm?
I know, a fool can ask more questions in a minute than a wise man can answer in an hour, but still, it’s been on my mind – the horizon of time.

Posted by: js | Mar 11 2024 8:03 utc | 189

What the world needs now is for the western masses to wake up. That will be the victory. That’s how I see it.
Posted by: arthur brogard | Mar 11 2024 5:53 utc | 184
I think they are stirring Arthur – very slowly.

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Mar 11 2024 8:30 utc | 191

Membrum Virile | Mar 11 2024 8:33 utc | 193
Qaddafi’s viagra returns from the dead. Long time no see. Thought you must have karked it. Times must be getting tough for empire and its every bag of bones to the front.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 11 2024 8:42 utc | 193

Peter AU1 @191
Lmao. Oh Peter, you are so quintesentially Australian. I was going to be a little less diplomatic and tell him to fuck off and learn the basics of any subject before wasting other people’s time on his own ignorance, but witheld my tongue as I suspect I’m getting known as a rudeboy round here! Perhaps some other kindly newbie might explain it all to him.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 11 2024 8:48 utc | 195

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Mar 11 2024 8:46 utc | 195
Shure 800000 shells, if this is the batch for this year afu can use an astounding 2000 a day, RF is rumored to use 10000+ a day.
For the black sea no one noted that RF has sunk 2 Ukrainian ships of the already inexistent Ukraine fleet a couple of days ago.
I second you, the effect will be seen in a few months.

Posted by: Mario | Mar 11 2024 8:56 utc | 197

What the world needs now is for the western masses to wake up. That will be the victory. That’s how I see it.
Posted by: arthur brogard | Mar 11 2024 5:53 utc | 184

The western masses won’t wake up. They are happy with the current situation. They feel themselves superior to all others. They are happy consumers. They touch touch-screens.
There cant be more in their lives.

Posted by: vargas | Mar 11 2024 9:07 utc | 199