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March 10, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-075
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Cnn is running an article bemoaning the fab1500. The fab500 was bearable but the 1.5 ton version causes too much blast damage.
That’s all you need to know about how this war works. Russia is just killing and maiming anybody who fights for any reason.
This explains Russias lackadaisical attitude towards taking territory. This explains natos fear to jump in. Nato soldiers can’t stand blast any better than Ukrainian ones.
First it was just artillery some soldier says now it’s This.
Just wait until the russian analouge of the French hammer bomb starts dropping a 100 km behind the front line.
Cnn will run much bemoaning.
Although the jet assisted glide bomb is a question mark in terms of a IR signature for interception. The jury is still out on it.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 10 2024 16:17 utc | 1
Ukraine credit limit in the US Senate
NATO Can Have Ukraine or the USA—Not Both, March 9
Marking the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg proclaimed that “Ukraine will join NATO….It is not a question of if, but when.” Fortunately for the United States, the admission of Ukraine into NATO cannot be forced upon us by the unilateral dicta of global elites. Nevertheless, Stoltenberg’s shocking display of hubris and blatant disregard for sovereignty reminds us exactly why a nation should not be added to the NATO alliance without weighing the risks.
[…]
Although its recent behavior would suggest otherwise, NATO is not a social club. At its inception, NATO is a military alliance rooted in shared security interests in the transatlantic area of responsibility. NATO is not a catch-all, feel-good get-together of democratically inclined nations. Admittance is not a stamp of global approval or a reward for good behavior—a framework antithetical to a military alliance. In fact, at this point, the alliance neither needs nor should seek additional members to achieve its stated “defensive” aims. We should consider new members only when they bring demonstrable and credible hard power, promote greater burden sharing across existing member states, and conceivably reduce the chances of sending allied troops into war. This is the only standard by which collective defense may work.
Ukraine is incompatible as a member on all fronts. What strategic value would Ukraine bring to the alliance? But for the goodwill of international donors, Ukraine would still be operating with Soviet-era weaponry and bygone military doctrine.
[…]
This op-ed has been updated to reflect the current debate over NATO troops entering Ukraine.
Posted by: sln2002 | Mar 10 2024 16:25 utc | 2
What’s the fundamental difference between Russia fighting attritional warfare in the Ukraine and 1968-era USA saying it was killing more Vietnamese soldiers than the country could replace?
Posted by: Afro | Mar 10 2024 16:28 utc | 3
Posted by: Afro | Mar 10 2024 16:28 utc | 7
We know the latter wasn’t true, for RF we will see.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 10 2024 16:31 utc | 4
Ukraine Weekly Update, 8th March 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-260
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Mar 10 2024 16:34 utc | 5
You can see Russia is catching up with the media war but still losing that battle.
That video the West made before the Summer offensive when the Ukrainian soldiers had a finger at the mouths mimicking Shuuush. With F16’s flying above.
Where’s the spoof video after such a calamity ? Russian video editors should be having a field day with that nowadays.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Mar 10 2024 16:38 utc | 6
reply to 7
A fair question
I think jungle/guerrilla warfare is more ambiguous than this trench conflict. Also, we have abundant testimony about desperation for soldiers, abandoned SIMS cards and overflowing cemeteries.
There is growing testimony about the demographic crisis in Ukraine, including experts in the country itself. The birth rate was bad and now, it’s awful, among the lowest on earth – which is not surprising given the war. Eric Prince of Blackwater mentioned how Ukraine is destroying itself demographically.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 10 2024 16:41 utc | 7
@Neofeudalfuture | Mar 10 2024 16:17 utc | 4
BMA has an article up on the Russian glide bombs. Ukraine has no effective means to counter the munitions themselves so they risked moving long range AD close to the line of combat to attack the aircraft releasing them. Consequently the AD systems were destroyed.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 10 2024 16:42 utc | 8
well some people have long insisted that there’s no “proof” NATO soldiers are directly involved in the fighting in Ukraine. Everything is just Putin lies.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240310/nato-military-personnel-already-in-ukraine-polish-foreign-minister-admits-1117243553.html
Posted by: Surferket | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 9
The Dneiper is a problem for the RF but the Soviet army established several bridgeheads on the river (certainly at a high cost) before pushing the Axis forces further West in 1943.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | Mar 10 2024 13:00 utc | 332
RU is already on the other side of the Dnieper, and has always been — it can go south to the west of Kiev, or towards Zhytomyr, or even further west, from Belarus. And did so in the first hours of the SMO.
There is no need to cross the river at all.
But that will require SMO V.2, with the full cooperation of Lukashenko.
Which means that Lukashenko will have to be given guarantees he won’t be left holding the bag. That is the reason after the initial fiasco (and not so much the military one, but the proposed deal in March 2022) Belarus has been off-limit for the SMO, except for occasional use of its airspace. Lukashenko doesn’t want the same experience as the people in Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, and now increasingly deeper into Russia have been enjoying for nearly two years now.
He got his nukes as a defense against NATO thinking about starting something from Poland and Lithuania, but he can’t nuke Kiev, for the same reasons Moscow can’t — it’s their people, brainwashed as they might be — and if Gomel and Brest are subjected to MLRS barrages with lots of civilian deaths, there won’t be much he can do. Sure, he can do decapitation on the Ukrainian leadership, and he does have the balls to do it, but the Kremlin would not allow it.
So for now Belarus is off-limits.
But if the Russian army is finally routing the Banderites and rapidly advancing towards the Dnieper from the east, and there are clear guarantees a big arrow west of Kiev will be similarly effective, that front can be reactivated and the whole discussion about crossing the river will be moot.
Also, if the Ukrainians are pushed to the river, they will blow up the bridges themselves. Likely the dams too — with the specific purpose of causing as much death and destruction for the Russian to have to deal with afterwards.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 10
What’s the fundamental difference between Russia fighting attritional warfare in the Ukraine and 1968-era USA saying it was killing more Vietnamese soldiers than the country could replace?
Posted by: Afro | Mar 10 2024 16:28 utc | 7
No real difference actually. Just like Vietnam had ample supply lines, which the USA were never able to fully cut, Ukraine has such supply lines and enough meat to be able to fight for a long, long time.
The whole idea of attrition is a bit ridiculous actually. The only successful example is France and the UK forcing Germany to negotiate in 1918. But in this case, these countries had actually managed to effect a sea blockade and cut Germany from access to raw materials and food.
Here we see it’s not the case, far from it. Take a look at this article from Courrier International.
This article states what is now obvious : Ukraine has cleaned the whole western part of the Black Sea. Odessa’s port thriving. Exports and imports work, Ukraine is able to generate much-needed revenue selling its wheat. Compare to two years ago, where, as one passer-by says, “you could see Russian warships from the port”.
NATO has broken Russia’s blockade and the Black Sea fleet. On land, supply flow unabated. Ukraine still has hundreds of thousands of meat ready to be sacrificed. In these conditions, the conflict could go on for years. On top of that, the whole western bloc is innovating constantly, see the new sea drones and the steady progress in air drones. True, they will probably never match Russia in sheer artillery power, but maybe it won’t be necessary – the drones by themselves are already a nuisance and, as we see in the Black Sea, have completely upended the calculus. The situation is in some ways similar to World War II, which saw the demise of the destroyers and battleships and the rise of the aircraft carrier. Here, we see the demise of big surface ships and missile carriers, with no efficient parade against sea drones yet found.
As always in the last two years, Russia is reacting, not acting. And its adversaries are growing bolder every day.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 11
NATO has broken Russia’s blockade and the Black Sea fleet.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 15
Note that the Kremlin didn’t even try to impose a blockade.
I think it was FighterBomber who commented on it to the tune of “People are asking why we are not sinking the ships that go in and out of Odessa. The answer is not that we can’t — we can do it within minutes — but that there is no order. That is all to it — there is no order”
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 16:47 utc | 12
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 10 2024 16:42 utc | 12
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/renaissance-of-the-bomb-gliding-fabs?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Posted by: Surferket | Mar 10 2024 16:48 utc | 13
——
As always in the last two years, Russia is reacting, not acting. And its adversaries are growing bolder every day.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 15
Infact thay had gteat success with the boldef counteroffensive. 🤔
Posted by: Mario | Mar 10 2024 16:50 utc | 14
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 10 2024 16:17 utc | 4
https://t.me/milinfolive/117935
Some details have emerged about the newest UMPB ammunition, which has recently begun to be used by the Russian army.
Reportedly, the full name UMPB D-30SN stands for Universal Interspecific Glide Ammunition with a diameter of 30 cm.
This product is a unified ammunition capable of being launched both by aviation (then the bomb does not yet have a jet engine) and the Tornado-S system (then the bomb is equipped with an engine).
Thus, the UMPB is not a conceptual analogue of the Powered JDAM, as previously assumed, but rather of the GBU-39/B SDB bomb. This aerial bomb is used by the United States for its intended purpose for air strikes, and in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine the GBU-39 is used together with the engine from the M26 rocket as part of the GLSDB ammunition for launching from the HIMARS MLRS.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 10 2024 16:51 utc | 15
On March 8, a funeral service for Gonzalo Lira was held in Santioga de Chile.
https://interferencia.cl/articulos/video-exclusivo-el-funeral-de-gonzalo-lira-en-santiago-de-chile
Posted by: Apollyon | Mar 10 2024 17:01 utc | 16
@16 SB
Re: odessa blockade
There’s no point in blowing up grain ships in odessa, even if weapons are hidden in civilian transports because the overland routes are wide open.
Those routes are wide open because fighting right beside Poland would bring in overwhelming nato intervention.
Russia can’t fight nato and win therefore it must fight just hard enough to stay below the threshold.
But it can’t let ukraine cleanse russian and russian culture out of its old territories either.
Therefore we have this situation which seems to be particularly hard to
understand.
But to win Russia needs to kill Ukrainians till they break and learn that the west only wants to see them die and leave the territory so they can use it as they see fit.
They can do this best fighting in the east churning up already abandoned and destroyed settlements.
Russia can beat ukraine though because ukriane is running out of people, it was before anyways.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 10 2024 17:01 utc | 17
Seems Ukraine is still making some counter offensive moves.
Still shelling Russian lines.
How low on ammo do they have to get for that to stop?
Posted by: southfront fan | Mar 10 2024 17:03 utc | 18
@Afro | Mar 10 2024 16:28 utc | 7
Interesting comparison. Estimated population of N Vietnam in 1968 = ~18 million. NVA estimated manpower deployed to the South at time of Tet offensive 325,000. US deployment at that time 550,000.
Current population of Ukrainian held territory – unknown. Perhaps around 20-25 million, but demographics of the population are radically different than 1960s Vietnam. Strength of UAF – who Knows? 500,000? Population of Russia ~140 million. RF forces deployed to SMO – ~300,000+ ??
Russian industrial base dwarfs Ukraine’s and Russia’s industrial output can be focused by the State. Western stockpiles of weapons have been depleted and industrial output cannot be easily coordinated or expanded.
For the US the Vietnam conflict was not existential (as it was for the NVA), for Russia the SMO is.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 10 2024 17:14 utc | 19
#3 & #11
The difference between Viet fucking nam and Ukraine is the NVA had unlimited supplies of ammo and men & women. Attrition warfare in Ukraine means less and less men and very limited ammo supplies from their patrons in the west who can’t keep up the production levels necessary.
Have you lads not been keeping up?
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Mar 10 2024 17:15 utc | 20
Afro #3
You illusion to Vietnam is incomplete.
The Russians are not backing corrupts left over from Euro colonialism. Russia are attacking the NATO version.
It is the U.S. using body count and terror not related to strategy, as in SVN
Posted by: paddy | Mar 10 2024 17:22 utc | 22
Probably good news, good luck to the new guy.
https://t.me/milinfolive/118008
❗️It is reported about the resignation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, and the appointment in his place of Admiral Alexander Moiseev, who previously commanded the Northern Fleet.
Rumors about such a personnel decision have been circulating for a long time, especially against the backdrop of the recent removal from his post of commander of the Black Sea Fleet Sokolov.
These high-profile reshuffles are taking place against the backdrop of complete paralysis of the fleet leadership, which is unable to both provide the ship’s personnel with sufficient protection from new threats and change approaches to tactics.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 10 2024 17:23 utc | 23
How low on ammo do they have to get for that to stop?
Posted by: southfront fan | Mar 10 2024 17:03 utc | 18
With good ISR, very little ammo is required. As the Chechen general said in his conversation with Ritter, nothing can be concentrated by either side for a large scale offensive as any concentration, men or material will be hit.
With this war, Russia settled in early on for a marathon, whereas Nato were are only capable of a few short sprints then they are out of the game. US has left its ISR in place but has otherwise dropped out.
Seven hundred thousand names that were mobilized/conscripted/press-ganged, now unaccounted for. Poorly trained recruits dumped on the frontlines with average life expectancy of days if not hours.
So many knuckle dragging knee jerkers that seem to think Russia should be able to defeat the entire west without taking losses itself otherwise the Russian leadership is incompetent…
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 17:24 utc | 24
@17
Russia can fight NATO.
The side that falters will use nukes.
Obvious to most not advising genocide Joe
Posted by: paddy | Mar 10 2024 17:25 utc | 25
paddy@25
Europe will not use their nukes in any case. Suicide. The US will not either as this would unleash MAD. Russia could conceivably use tactical nukes in case of a full on attack by NATO, but likely an initial response would be use of conventional weapons against critical NATO assets, and escalation to nukes only in response to imminent use of same by the West.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 10 2024 17:36 utc | 26
Apparently the password to join in the call to discuss the attack on Crimea bridge using German-made Taurus missiles was as easy as Eins Zwei Drei Vier.
Posted by: AI | Mar 10 2024 17:39 utc | 27
As always in the last two years, Russia is reacting, not acting. And its adversaries are growing bolder every day.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 11
STOP TALKING BOLLOX…..
Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 10 2024 17:41 utc | 28
Strange, someone pointing out that Ukraine was now generating needed wealth selling wheat.
S&P put the Ukrainian debt in CC.
Someone must call S&P and tell them they must be wrong.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 10 2024 17:48 utc | 29
pessimist | Mar 10 2024 17:36 utc | 26
The main danger may be if the Euro’s launch conventional war which they would quickly lose. The Euro elite are desperate now just because they have lost the proxy war.
Doubling down to direct conflict – and quickly losing that – doubly desperate. As far as I know, its only the Brits and French that are nuclear armed, but Putin seems to think direct conflict is most likely to go nuclear.
If for some reason Russia was taking unsustainable losses, it too would go nuclear, but I don’t see Russia taking unsustainable losses in very short period of intense conventional war which is all European, logistics, manufacturing, military manpower would allow for.
As has become clear, there can be no concentration of forces or equipment in the type of war now being fought but that is all that Nato forces have trained for whereas Russia has already learnt to operate without concentrations.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 17:49 utc | 30
7 – Russian propaganda in Russian is fairly effective but seems to neglect international propaganda.
Propaganda is what it is. During the Thirty Years’ War, the Protestant/anti-Hapsburg side was better at propaganda than the Catholic side, the actual state of the war was irrelevant. A fairly typical Protestant engraving showed Gustavus Adolphus poking the Pope’s belly with a long stick and making him vomit up towns captured by the Swedes.
Posted by: Waldorf | Mar 10 2024 17:57 utc | 31
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_intervention_in_the_Thirty_Years%27_War#/media/File:Swedish_progress_continues.jpg
The engraving.
Posted by: Waldorf | Mar 10 2024 17:59 utc | 32
Those routes are wide open because fighting right beside Poland would bring in overwhelming nato intervention.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 10 2024 17:01 utc | 17
Did not shutting down those routes result in NATO staying out of this?
By definition you lose 100% of the wars that you decide to concede without a fight
Let them try to fight directly. And the earlier that action had been taken, the lower this risk would have been. NATO was genuinely acting scared in the first months. It took a lot of bluffs being called to get to the current situation where they are openly talking about directly intervening.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 18:12 utc | 33
Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 17:49 utc | 30–
The crucial question: How long would it take for Europe to mobilize its meager forces and then transport them to the front? As soon as they enter Ukraine, they become targets. To base and enter from Poland or Romania merely makes those nations additional targets. NATO assumed Outlaw US Empire carrying the main burden in any conflict with Russia, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. How many jets can the Euro’s muster as that’s Ukraine’s #1 shortfall followed by artillery and its ammo? From what is seen from France’s reaction to Macron’s insanity is rejection by all political factions. There’s similar talk from a few Poles, but those that matter are against the idea. IMO, more listened to Putin recently than usual. And having been defeated by the Outlaw US Empire and now its Colony, I doubt few want to suffer a second defeat at their own hands by attacking Russia.
Why are EU elites desparate to escalate this war even more then USA elites?
Posted by: vargas | Mar 10 2024 18:15 utc | 35
If you look at the Rand think tank’s plans, they always envision fighting Russia “Over there” through proxies. At the moment, that is Ukraine.
They plan the same thing for China, except that in that case the “let’s you and him fight” proxies to be thrown into the grinder includes Australia, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
Putin had said before that the Russians were not going to save the world again by losing millions on their own land, that this time the perps were going to pay, but so far the war is being fought solely on Russian land, and it is mostly Russians dying.
Just like the Rand and the US Deep State planned.
I can see why Russians would be pissed off about this. This is the third time in a century the rest of the world looks to them to bring down an evil empire, and seem copacetic with Russian losses, as long as the war doesn’t spread.
I’m not Russian, but I do like to read Shadowban’s take on things. Down South tells us the Russian military situation, Karlof1 tells us the Russian government’s statements, and Shadowbanned tells us of ordinary Russians taking the hits from NATO. I consider all this info to be valuable.
I was glad when Russia avenged the deaths of the citizens of Belgorod by blowing up the French mercenaries. I was glad when Russia took out the newly medaled NATO troops who sunk the Sergei Kotov.
I will be ecstatic when Russia liberates Odessa.
But every Russian death is to be mourned. They are dying because FUKUS are forcing them to die, while the overlords are safe in their lands, and it is just not right.
So carry on, SB, and ignore the cancel culturers who call for banning views they don’t want to hear. That’s one of those “western values” we hear so much about, but I, for one, disapprove of cancel culture in any form.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Mar 10 2024 18:17 utc | 36
As always in the last two years, Russia is reacting, not acting. And its adversaries are growing bolder every day.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 11
STOP TALKING BOLLOX…..
Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 10 2024 17:41 utc | 28
What exactly is “BOLLOX” here?
It’s 100% true — the Kremlin has been in purely reactive mode since the time Khrushchev took the reigns. Arguably even Stalin spent most of his 30 years in power playing defense, but he legitimately didn’t have the resources to do otherwise so he gets a pass.
The result was first the USSR falling apart, and now this.
Even the usually cited examples of “decisive action” — Crimea, Syria and the SMO — were also reactive, not proactive measures, taken because of being painted in a corner with no other option left but total defeat.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 18:18 utc | 37
Russia reacting….. any side for that matter reacting in war.
Move and countermove, wunderwaffe and response. Always the same in war. What counts is that all reactions are within the larger strategy rather than reactive strategy.
Strategy right at the start must allow for the absolute fact that the other side will come up with some surprises so there must be enough room within the strategy to account for this.
We have very much seen that with Russia, its ability to respond quickly to changes.
That period when Nato fielded its second army, and the kerfuffle at Kharkov, kneejerkers were kneejerking and carrying on, Russia was unfazed, large military exercise in the east carried on as usual ect. The mobilization, knocking the rust out of that, re-training the mobilized for some months, introducing just sufficent fresh force to destroy the second Nato army in just a few months, Then digging in and waiting for the vaunted southern offensive of the third Nato army.
Russia at no time was thrown off balance, at no time forced to resort to short term poorly thought out reactions.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 18:19 utc | 38
Posted by: Afro | Mar 10 2024 16:28 utc | 3
«What’s the fundamental difference between Russia fighting attritional warfare in the Ukraine and 1968-era USA saying it was killing more Vietnamese soldiers than the country could replace?»
The USA was attacking an enemy thousands of km away, the RF is defending against an enemy attacking them on their border, this has huge political and logistical consequences. The main similarity is that in both cases South Vietnam/Ukraine are expendable pawns in the USA’s geopolitical “domino strategy”.
Posted by: Blissex | Mar 10 2024 18:23 utc | 39
karlof1 | Mar 10 2024 18:13 utc | 34 “IMO, more listened to Putin recently than usual.”
I ran onto something in that regard a day or so back. Something about a big change in Switzerland due to Carlson’s interview with Putin.
Judging by the number of views that interview has had, it was a world wide, western world wide viewership rather than just Americans.
There might be something going on with Macron France, Poland and the Baltics. But then Poland, tusk of course is Tusk but the rest seem to be waking up, so perhaps there will be something put together to partition off western Ukraine…
The Brits are the main problem. perhaps they will trigger something to draw the timid Euros in.
To me, this could still go either way but it seems reality is settling in with the bulk of the Euro’s, some professional ex military names starting to speak out and that sort of thing.
Then the other side I look at is some of the really stupid decisions made by collapsing powers in the past but hopefully that danger is starting to pass now, especially with the US pulling out rather than escalating.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 18:35 utc | 40
Why are EU elites desparate to escalate this war even more then USA elites?
Posted by: vargas | Mar 10 2024 18:15 utc | 35
Easy.
because US influence on media has rather sweeping and effective influence in Europe, especially Germany.
Media here are herding politics towards escalation. Say something wrong and you get the hysteric McCarthy anticommunist treatment. ( independent of topic: Ukraine or Israel )
Olaf Scholz uses his heels but gets near zero traction.
And then we have the “Panzerfahrer” ( politician-lobbyists that advocate excalation: faster pussycat, faster!! )
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 10 2024 18:36 utc | 41
#37
The Bollox is that Russia is reactionary. When you have a whole host of crazy countries trying to destroy your country, reactionary methods are basically all you have and the Russian reactionary methods are working out quite well. What else can Russia do? What the crazies want and always wanted is retaliation by Russia on one of their crazy countries, can’t you understand that.
And what soviet comrade khrushchev has to do with modern Russia or the SMO is more bollox.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Mar 10 2024 18:43 utc | 42
The Western press is writing with might and main that Russian bombs have increased the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and are wiping out Ukrainian defense structures from the face of the earth. We write about this constantly.
It is worth understanding that this problem will be impossible to solve without powerful air defense on the LBS line.
As we know, air defense is in short supply, defense structures are temporary, there is no money for full-fledged fortifications, and the onslaught of the Russians is getting stronger.
At the same time, the Russians are expanding the variety of gliding and even guided bombs. Now they are already using some new bomb (UPMB is a universal interspecific glide munition. It can be used on different installations, etc.). They say such a toy flies 80-90 km, and the classic FAB/KAB flies 50 km.
By the way, now the threat to the Odessa coast is increasing, as we have written many times.
As we see, Russia is now accelerating its military-industrial complex to maximum levels, which will have an impact on the course of the war. Especially given the fact that the West has now slowed down the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Our experts confirmed the information about the losses of mobile Patriots, while noting that in order to combat Russian aircraft that drop KABs, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ air defense systems are forced to move to the front line, which is why they fall into the affected area.
Experts also do not exclude the factor of betrayal. That is, one of the Ukrainian military, according to this version, notified the Russians about the Patriot’s route of movement.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21967
Western media confirm information about losses in mobile air defense suffered by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but so far they describe one case per week, while our sources reported the loss of 3 mobile groups.
The destruction of Patriot will widen the cracks in Ukraine’s air defense
The day before, in the Pokrovsk region in eastern Ukraine, Russian troops were lucky. Using the Iskander hypersonic missile, they managed to hit a convoy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which included at least two Patriot air defense missile launchers. Both complexes exploded, which almost certainly led to the death of their “experienced crews,” Forbes writes.
Thanks to this strike, the skies in the region became “much safer” for Russian aviation. In addition, as a result of this “just one disaster,” the Ukrainian army lost up to 13% of the Patriot launchers provided to it by the United States, Germany and the Netherlands, the publication claims.
According to Forbes, the destruction of American-made air defense systems will undermine the air defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in which “cracks are already visible.” Moreover, replacing lost systems will be very difficult. This may take months, if not years.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21970
Posted by: Down South | Mar 10 2024 18:46 utc | 43
“These high-profile reshuffles are taking place against the backdrop of complete paralysis of the fleet leadership… Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 10 2024 17:23 utc | 23” ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If the R.F.’s Navy is built like their Army, it’s not fragile! Think LEGOs.
Posted by: Ben Trovata | Mar 10 2024 18:48 utc | 44
Our source at the General Staff said that the Pentagon demanded that Syrsky stop using the Patriot as a mobile air defense until the situation with the reasons for the destruction of the launch systems is clarified.
The Americans are not happy with the loss of Partiot systems and the death of US military personnel who served the air defense.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21972
The President’s office was beside itself because of the publication of the UP about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of two Patriot installations; they gave the command to Bankovay to stop this information, declaring the news an enemy IPSO operation.
In fact, we lost three mobile groups out of five in two weeks, but the video only shows two strikes. The General Staff is already investigating how the routes of movement of mobile air defense groups could have been leaked.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21976
Posted by: Down South | Mar 10 2024 18:49 utc | 45
wagelaborer | Mar 10 2024 18:17 utc | 36
This is literally WWIII. Russia casualties to date are minor in that context. Today, Russian land is the Russian federation. The referendums were held specifically so Russian military would then be fighting on their land.
As yet, the SMO is a side issue for Russia (main focus is the civilian economy education ect not mobilizing the country for war), yet US has spent much money it does not have and still been defeated on that front.
Some fools think US can just keep printing money – it doesn’t need an economy…. For RF and China its just a matter off time till the US bubble bursts.
There’s still the US lead from behind war on China to come so long as US can keep its bubble from bursting but that will end in the same way as its foray against Russia.
Trump glitter and bling, martial arts trash talk… merica merica merica…
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 18:52 utc | 46
@anon2020 | Mar 10 2024 17:23 utc | 23
from wiki fwiw:
“Aleksandr Alekseyevich Moiseyev (Russian: Александр Алексеевич Моисеев; born 16 April 1962) is an officer of the Russian Navy. He currently holds the rank of admiral, and is commander in chief of the Russian Navy
After initially training in film repair, Moiseyev underwent military service, before studying at the navy’s technical institute. From there he joined the Northern Fleet as a submariner. After starting in the engineering branch, he moved into specialising in combat and warfare control. Commended for his service and promoted, he took command of his own boat, from which he performed the first commercial space launch in the navy’s history, as well as the first commercial payload that had ever been sent into orbit from a submarine. He undertook further study at the Naval Academy and the Military Academy of the General Staff, interspersed with the command of submarine squadrons. He received plaudits for his supervisory roles, and was awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation in 2011.
In 2018 he took command of the Black Sea Fleet, and oversaw a period of expansion within the fleet. He has also courted controversy with regards to relations with Ukraine following the Russian military intervention in Ukraine from 2014 onwards, and the Kerch Strait incident in November 2018. In May 2019 he was appointed commander of the Northern Fleet. In March 2024 he was appointed as commander in chief of the Russian Navy, replacing Nikolai Yevmenov.”
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 10 2024 18:54 utc | 47
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 18:52 utc | 46
We hear US is now having to ‘self finance’ its debt to a larger extent than ever before – the dealers at government bond auctions refuse to scoop up all the unsold debt.
In conjunction with the imminently imploding real estate and commercial housing market, and roll over of $9 trillion debt this year at over 4 % interest rate they probably can’t keep Ukraine project running. It’s literally a black hole.
So Europeans panicked and stepped up to the plate because they see the project is sinking. Lets hope we can avoid worst case, but it isn’t really probable.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 10 2024 19:01 utc | 48
To add a bit to the conversation and Macron’s part, it has been calculated that the French have enough ammunition to fight on a 80km front for THREE WHOLE DAYS. Magnifique!
I’d like to put in a plug for this young video blogger from Mariupol:
https://www.youtube.com/@VideosfromMariupol
https://t.me/s/videos_from_mariupol
He was born in Donetsk but was living in Mariupol before the SMO and stayed during it. The youtube videos are short – 3-8min mostly – and explain his position on Russia and the SMO and what went on during the fighting and how things are going since.
From his telegram: “Ukrainian channels found and identified me, like they doing with every pro-russian citizen of Novorossiya. They even made a post with my biography. Terrorists.
I expected this from this start, and i knew this gonna happen.
But i don’t give a fuck. Sharing truth with my channel is the most important thing to me now.
And SBU can suck me
Anyway, another video about reconstruction will be next week, and q&a video few days after, with a good sound since i configured my new micro :)”
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 10 2024 19:06 utc | 50
R.F.’s Navy is built like their Army, it’s not fragile! Think LEGOs.
Posted by: Ben Trovata | Mar 10 2024 18:48 utc | 44
Putin stood in the pouring rain one time, no umbrella or anything, to lay a wreath at a war memorial.
A young girl sometime asked him about this sometime later, worried he could become ill or something. He “I’m not made of sugar. I will not melt”
That question is about two minutes in and Putin’s complete answer, now that war is occurring again, is always worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zM-Kprv1LoA
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 19:08 utc | 51
unimperator | Mar 10 2024 19:01 utc | 48
That is close to my thoughts. Apparently the cost of servicing its dept is about the same as tax revenue. All US Gov tax income used to pay interest on existing debt. I don’t know how much is in that but have been assuming US is somewhere around that point.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 19:13 utc | 52
Posted by: Ben Trovata | Mar 10 2024 18:48 utc | 44
The post alleges paralysis, not fragility.
Two years in we can only wonder at the sort of excuses and rationalisations that have served as worthless substitute for timely adaptation, yours might be one such example.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 10 2024 19:19 utc | 53
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 10 2024 16:17 utc | 1
Base bleed gas generators have a significantly lower IR signature than an actual propulsion engine. In fact you can even shroud it and place it backwards if you want to hide it more as the entire point of it is to raise the air pressure on the trailing edge thus reducing drag.
Posted by: badjoke | Mar 10 2024 19:27 utc | 54
Posted by: Afro | Mar 10 2024 16:28 utc | 3
What’s the fundamental difference between Russia fighting attritional warfare in the Ukraine and 1968-era USA saying it was killing more Vietnamese soldiers than the country could replace
Open the map and take look where are Russia and Ukraine relative to each other and where are the US and Viet-Nam.
Russia is fighting on Russian land. USA was fighting on Vietnamese land. Can’t be more fundamental than that.
Posted by: hopehely | Mar 10 2024 19:35 utc | 55
anon2020 | Mar 10 2024 19:19 utc | 53 “Two years in we can only wonder at the sort of excuses and rationalisations that have served as worthless substitute for timely adaptation, yours might be one such example.”
Timely adaption…. Timely adaption by an individual – timely adaption by a unit/small group, timely adaption by a large group – timely adaption by something as large as RF military. Al encompass different time frames.
You and some others seem to only use the time frame of the individual.
As per the Black Sea fleet and mass drone attack, that is a completely new part of warfare all navies around the world must adapt to and will take some time. Previous to this, focus had been on the future of aerial drone attack.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 19:38 utc | 56
Everyone focuses on nukes. What about rice blast? The Chinks have good wheat stockpiles but how long would that last without any rice being produced? A few gliders with race blast and China is done. How would Russia do against NATO without Chinese industrial backup?
Posted by: Jack A | Mar 10 2024 20:02 utc | 57
It is requested to supply facts.
And what I am reading here more and more? Anti-Russian war propaganda by a bunch of agents provocateurs.
It goes as far as quoting a French “merdia” (shit journal) totally controlled by the enemies of Russia.
What are those agents provocateurs trying to do? To disrupt the unity of Russia as much as they can.
I really do not understand anymore the policy of this site.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 10 2024 20:06 utc | 58
Juxtapose the Moon of Alabama commenters response to Israeli warcrimes with the Moon of Alabama commenters response to Russian warcrimes.
Only Jews can be bad guys? I guess its alright to slaughter white men?
Posted by: Jack A | Mar 10 2024 20:07 utc | 59
Posted by: Jack A | Mar 10 2024 20:02 utc | 57
Crazy people want obviously that ww3 will start.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 10 2024 20:09 utc | 60
Even the usually cited examples of “decisive action” — Crimea, Syria and the SMO — were also reactive, not proactive measures, taken because of being painted in a corner with no other option left but total defeat.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 18:18 utc | 37
You’re a ball of confusion Mr Shadow. Is it “decisive action”, “not proactive” or “reactive” and how is Russia liberating Crimea and Donbas painting themselves into a corner?
Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 10 2024 20:12 utc | 61
You remember we’ve attacked Russian nuclear bomber aircraft in december 2022. What if the other side says “We’re under attack, hit the button, now.”?
Russia has 6250 nuclear weapons. Let’s assume 10% are duds. NATO is 32 countries. Let’s add Ukraine, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and you have 37 countries in NATO-plus. That is 150 Russian nuclear weapons per NATO country. Ask yourself: do I live in one of the 150 biggest population centers of the country?
As an example, one (1) mid-size nuclear warhead (SS-25, 800 kiloton) on London would result in 950,000 deaths and 2.300.000 injuries. Also, all windows within 18 km from central London are broken. Think hospitals.
Roughly speaking: if our face doesn’t look like fried bacon, it’s because of the temperate character and rational mind of Vladimir Vladimirovitch.
There are a couple of problems with these assumptions. 150 nuclear bombs per country is a bit unfair towards Luxembourg, and maybe too optimistic for the US. Also, the UK only has 76 cities, so you run out of cities to bomb.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 10 2024 20:17 utc | 62
I fail to understand why the Russians are still attacking enemy lines when they can just fab and iskander them to oblivion.
I also fail to get why those 60 year olds press ganged into Ukrainian service do not simply frag their officers,their expected lifespan is going to be a couple of months so what they are waiting for? they won’t see June one way or another.
Posted by: kanenas | Mar 10 2024 20:18 utc | 63
Posted by: Afro | Mar 10 2024 16:28 utc | 7
No real difference actually. Just like Vietnam had ample supply lines, which the USA were never able to fully cut
Posted by: Micron | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 11
—————————————————————
Micron, substitute willing for able and you will het the US military to agree with you.
The White House made on again/off again about interdicting supply routes, including the rail lines from China into Hanoi. Targeting decisions were made in the White House by LBJ and Nixon. Bush Sr. did not repeat that mistake.
The Ho Chi Minh trail could have been cut off with ongoing interdiction by the USAF, some based in Thailand and the USN carrier based strike craft.
The US, militarily speaking, could have won the war, but to what end? Replace one corrupt leadership with another one? Maintaining some form of colonial power with North Vietnam ready to pounce after the US diminished its presence?
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 10 2024 20:20 utc | 64
Posted by: Jack A | Mar 10 2024 20:07 utc | 59
Show us examples of Russian war crimes.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 10 2024 20:21 utc | 65
There is no possible comparison between Russia and “our (bloody) colonial project” (Vladimir Jabotinsky) founded (1917-) by fanatical Ukrainian, Polish, Lithuanian and Belarusian emigrants.
Russia is a civilized State which gives Citizenship.
The Zionist regime is pure Barbarism and does not recognize as Citizenship the population of the territory it controls, and puts you in a ghetto without civil rights and under military domination plus the usual killing and kidnapping raids.
Russia is a State; the Zionist regime is a Viking horde that worships itself.
Posted by: Simon | Mar 10 2024 20:28 utc | 66
There is no possible comparison between Russia and “our (bloody) colonial project” (Vladimir Jabotinsky) founded (1917-) by fanatical Ukrainian, Polish, Lithuanian and Belarusian emigrants.
Russia is a civilized State which gives Citizenship.
The Zionist regime is pure Barbarism and does not recognize as Citizenship the population of the territory it controls, and puts you in a ghetto without civil rights and under military domination plus the usual killing and kidnapping raids.
Russia is a State; the Zionist regime is a Viking horde that worships itself.
Posted by: Simon | Mar 10 2024 20:28 utc | 67
The US, militarily speaking, could have won the war,
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 10 2024 20:20 utc | 64
Physiology plays a big part in any military. Perhaps the UDS could have won by total genocide perhaps not. The Vietnam were defending home soil, the Americans were not. And like we are seeing with Iran, Hezbollah, Yemen and many others, there are ways to fight enemies that rely on superior fire power.
We see Gaza now seemingly being bombed into oblivion, but Hamas is still fighting and so long as the Palestinian will is there they will win.
In this case, the Palestinians had been already slated for genocide ethnic cleansing and knew it. They like every other non US country and people are fighting the empire, not just the immediate foe.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 20:41 utc | 68
@64
“The Ho Chi Minh trail could have been cut off with ongoing interdiction by the USAF, some based in Thailand and the USN carrier based strike craft.”
But didn’t the USAF, US ground forces, and ARVN make a serious effort to sever the Ho Chi Minh trail, and strangle the NVA/VC logistics lifeline? As best I recall, US and South Vietnamese forces did indeed aim for this strategic goal, but failed.
Correct me if I’m wrong. But my impression is that NVA/VC’s tenacity in keeping the trail open was one of the chief reasons the US ultimately concluded that the war as unwinnable.
Posted by: GW | Mar 10 2024 20:45 utc | 70
Open the map and take look where are Russia and Ukraine relative to each other and where are the US and Viet-Nam.
Russia is fighting on Russian land. USA was fighting on Vietnamese land. Can’t be more fundamental than that.
Posted by: hopehely | Mar 10 2024 19:35 utc | 55
Exactly.
There is a basic category error that many commentators even on the pro-RU side are making — this is a proxy war for NATO, but it is not a proxy war for Russia, Russia is directly defending the motherland.
None of the Cold War conflicts were like that, they were all proxy wars for both sides, never fought on their own territory.
The Cold War proxy war rules and limitations on engagement should not apply here. Yet the Kremlin is abiding by those even though NATO is not.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 20:48 utc | 71
There are a couple of problems with these assumptions. 150 nuclear bombs per country is a bit unfair towards Luxembourg, and maybe too optimistic for the US. Also, the UK only has 76 cities, so you run out of cities to bomb.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 10 2024 20:17 utc | 62
These numbers are a bit suspect for basic physics reasons (how do you fit all that within the total 10-ton payload?) but if the RS-28 Sarmat can indeed carry 24 Avangard HGVs, and each Avangard indeed carries a 2-Mt warheads, then the UK can be totally erased with just two or three of these. And fully disabled and then destroyed more slowly with just one.
Which has the added benefit that you can sneak in one ICBM past early warning systems much easier than a large salvo. There were many false alarms in the past, and often what saved us from everything being launched and the end of the world was the fact that people operating those systems realized that a real first strike would not consists of just one or a few missiles, thus what was showing on their radars was a likely some kind of an artifact. Well, that works the other way around too — if all you need is one missile for a smaller target like the UK, it can be disguised as such an artifact through various means.
With 24 2-Mt HGV warheads on a single Sarmat you take out Clyde, the key cargo ports, the most important air bases, the GCHQ, maybe London too, and then the rest will slowly starve to death with logistics completely paralyzed for weeks and months. But you can also put them out of their misery and finish them off once first disabled in such a way with cruise missiles nuclear strikes.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 20:51 utc | 72
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 20:48 utc | 71
While Ukraine is a proxy is also defending her homeland.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 10 2024 20:51 utc | 73
“We hear US is now having to ‘self finance’ its debt to a larger extent than ever before – the dealers at government bond auctions refuse to scoop up all the unsold debt”
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 10 2024 19:01 utc | 48
You hear wrong and still haven’t got the hang of it. Dealers are required to do so and cannot refuse.
There is
a) No need for them whatsoever.
b) issuing treasuries ( debt) is a left over from the gold standard and no longer needed.
Why MMT’rs plan to do away with them completely. It is nothing but corporate welfare.
Further reading:
https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=34071
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Mar 10 2024 20:55 utc | 74
The whole idea of attrition is a bit ridiculous actually. The only successful example is France and the UK forcing Germany to negotiate in 1918. But in this case, these countries had actually managed to effect a sea blockade and cut Germany from access to raw materials and food.
Attrition is to warfare as entropy is to nature. It is fundamental.
Attrition means to reduce in numbers size or strength. Yes you can have a surprise attack where there is no artillery preparation to soften up the enemy and you sneak by them to take a hilltop but at some point in the battle there’s a very good chance you’ll have to attempt to reduce the number, size or strength of your enemy to achieve your objective.
And the point of a sea blockade is to reduce the size, strength or number of the enemy by denying them food and supplies … it’s good old fashion siege warfare only by sea.
The ammount of effort an army has to put into wearing down the enemy varies depending on the conditions. WW1 machine guns and artillery made it difficult to move on the battlefield.
WW2 saw advances in the use of mechanized vehicles which meant you move more freely so more movement less attrition however there was still a lot of slugging going on to open up lines to advance along.
WW3 sees advances in ISR on both sides to the point that neither side can assemble the necessary force concentrations to break through the lines and advance quickly so were back to WW1 in the trenches.
As always in the last two years, Russia is reacting, not acting. And its adversaries are growing bolder every day.
Hold on there … most of the criticism around here against Russia is for NOT reacting. Now you say their fault is that they do nothing BUT react. Interesting point of view.
As for adversaries getting bolder don’t mistake impotent rage for courage. You can forgive European politicians rage because they were promised that sanctions alone would defeat the Russians and they were encouraged to invest in the Ukraine project in more ways than just supplying surplus weapons.
Unfortunately the USA just fired the Undersecretary of State and architect of the Ukraine war reportedly for being too “russia centric” and replaced her with a China hawk. The USA is washing it’s hands of Ukraine. The bill to give them $60B won’t pass. The question now is will the USA even stay in NATO after Trump gets elected let alone continue funding the Ukraine war.
Think about it for a minute.
The USA destroyed the EU’s relationship with Russia …
Europe is cold, has a short growing season and has no natural resources or energy reserves to speak of. Russia is rich in natural resources and energy and up until 2 years ago supplied Europe with cheap gas and raw materials.
So going forward Europe has lost their primary energy supplier. They have a dumpster fire raging in Ukraine and the fire department (USA) is rolling up their hoses saying it’s “not our problem” and may in fact stop serving the EU altogether leaving a very angry Russia on their eastern border and a manufacturing industry that can’t build anything because they can’t compete with China … which is getting cheap gas and raw materials from Russia
Posted by: Micron | Mar 10 2024 16:45 utc | 11
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 10 2024 20:56 utc | 75
A likely reason why various EU/NATO leaders like Macron are upping the “War with Russia” porn propaganda is because Brussels wants to be able to be able to tax the EU directly so it can issue bonds, thus Ukrainian War Bonds!
These EU leaders need to create an emergency situation so Brussels can grab direct taxation powers they currently don’t have. They don’t want to waste the opportunity of the Ukrainian war to create the required crisis. Never let a good crisis go to waste!
Later Brussels can issue more bonds for their current flavor of the day, like “Green” bonds.
Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Mar 10 2024 20:58 utc | 76
What’s the fundamental difference between Russia fighting attritional warfare in the Ukraine and 1968-era USA saying it was killing more Vietnamese soldiers than the country could replace?
Posted by: Afro | Mar 10 2024 16:28 utc | 3
What a dum-dum! The Russians have the logistical advantage due to their short supply lines. They have a production advantage due to their industry (not sent wholesale to China for “profit”). They are bigger than their adversaries and they see this as existential, just like the North Vietnamese. So stop being an idiot and look at the context.
Posted by: Activist Potato | Mar 10 2024 21:04 utc | 77
For the US the Vietnam conflict was not existential (as it was for the NVA), for Russia the SMO is.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 10 2024 17:14 utc | 19
A reality that is completely ignored in the western consciousness.
Posted by: jpc | Mar 10 2024 21:12 utc | 78
From today:
https://t.me/readovkanews/75464
An aircraft-type UAV was shot down over the Novgorod region – Governor
Governor of the Novgorod Region Andrei Nikitin reported that an aircraft-type UAV was shot down over the region. There were no casualties, injuries or destruction.
“We work in close contact with law enforcement and security agencies,” the governor said.
As usual, how are drones getting to Novgorod?
Then:
https://t.me/readovkanews/75467
In the south of St. Petersburg there is a serious fire near the airport – it can be seen from different parts of the city.
In the south of St. Petersburg there is a serious fire on the Volkhonskoye Highway – local residents report that a huge column of smoke can be seen in different parts of the city. It is reported that it comes from the direction of the airport – there is an industrial zone nearby, which includes many warehouses.
However, what caused the fire is not specified. Local residents report that where the smoke reaches, it is difficult to breathe.
https://t.me/readovkanews/75469
❗️As a result of a fire in St. Petersburg, two people were injured.
Emergency services report this. They clarify that the hangar is burning on an area of 1 thousand square meters. Extinguishing is complicated by the high fire load inside the warehouse.
https://t.me/readovkanews/75475
A UAV was shot down over the Tosnensky district of the Leningrad region.
Residents of the city of Tosno, Leningrad region, reported an explosion in the sky. As locals indicate on social networks, a drone was shot down near a populated area.
Governor Drozdenko reported that an aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicle had been discovered on the territory of the Leningrad Region. An airspace closure regime was introduced. Air defense forces destroyed the object near the village of Fornosovo, Tosnensky district.
https://t.me/readovkanews/75477
❗️At Pulkovo, restrictions on the reception and departure of aircraft have been lifted, the airport is operating normally – Rosaviation
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 21:12 utc | 79
While Ukraine is a proxy is also defending her homeland.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 10 2024 20:51 utc | 73
Not at all.
Ukraine is occupied by a Americans-British-Banderite coalition. Many of those Banderites literally came back to Ukraine after 1991 from Canada and the US. The rest are from Galicia, and then took over the whole country.
Ukraine except for the westernmost oblasts is core Russian territory.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 21:16 utc | 80
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 10 2024 19:01 utc | 48
The debt ceiling which is a complete farce won’t stop them either.
THE SEVEN SECRET FEDERAL RESERVE BOOKS WON THROUGH the freedom of information act.
https://www.crisesnotes.com/revealed-the-seven-secret-federal-reserve-books-i-won-through-foia/
Also the real kicker that will really crush your wrong world view of the monetary system.
The FED could just issue treasuries DIRECTLY instead. I’ll say that again, the FED could just issue treasuries ( debt) DIRECTLY instead.
Here:
https://www.crisesnotes.com/federal-reserve-issued-securities-not-such-a-crazy-idea-after-all/
By the way before the Mastricht Treaty was introduced and voted through. In the UK they just used to use the weighs and means account.
So what does that even mean in the UK, they just used the ways and means account ?
Treasury select commitee submission from 1999
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199900/cmselect/cmtreasy/154/cor15402.htm
You should pour yourself a cup of tea and read that unimperator. It is from November 1999 and describes the accounting and function changes that occurred as a result of Maastrict and with Bank of England independence.
The thing that was illuminating for me particularly was the explanation of how the Ways and Means account worked pre-1997.
The government simply spent according to direction from Parliament and this was expressed as money injected into the economy via the Bank of England. Then the Bank of England issued gilts (though always a liability of Treasury) solely with an eye on monetary conditions. In cases where not all of the government spending was drained – because the monetary objectives didn’t require it – then Ways and Means account simply acted as a balancing item.
The Ways and Means account was therefore basically analogous to an overdraft (as I know other folk in here have always understood it), an IOU of the Treasury. So even in this case, we have Treasury IOUs backing central bank money creation, but as explicit, overt, unequivocal money creation by government spending. And the only concern in this system is the monetary target, i.e. inflation.
Everything else is subsumed into that. All completely consistent with the claims of MMT.
Post-1997 we have the system that we have now. The Treasury (DMO) debt management office is now responsible for cash management which means it has to clean up after itself by issuing gilts to neutralise its spending.
This leaves the central Bank to focus on regulating the economy only with respect to prevailing conditions rather than the additional complication of government cash flows. So now when the BoE needs to add more money to the economy it cannot use any of the government’s direct spending (i.e. only drain part of it off) as before because the DMO has already drained it all.
So now it has to buy back some of the gilts that the DMO sold. Again, we have net money added to the economy backed by a Treasury IOU, though this time it is a gilt rather than an entry in the Ways and Means account.
Since the Mastricht Treaty there are now two targets in the system: On
(1) the Treasury’s balanced cash flow target;
(2) the Bank’s monetary target. In many cases the Bank will have to undo what the Treasury has done,
Instead of both simply acting together under one target as they did before Mastricht.
What this shows is that the changes in 1997 really did just obfuscate the reality and the EU tried to control the BOE. Oh boy do they love giving out corporate welfare now as if the UK is still on the gold standard.
When it should be …
1. that the spending happens first following Parliamentary direction
2. that spending creates money via accounts being credited as the central bank
3. that the only concern ultimately is monetary conditions (inflation not budgets)
4. that gilts are a monetary instrument that is no longer needed.
I am not saying this is new to anyone in here, but this is the most clear description I’ve seen from the horse’s mouth that shows that the claims of MMT are bang on and 100% correct.
So question .. When are you going to learn this unimperator ?
Instead of treating whoever it was that implanted the wrong thinking regarding the monetary system in your head like a crack dealer.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Mar 10 2024 21:21 utc | 81
Vast fortunes can be made by servicing Ukraine’s debt, both now and in the future, and government officials will one way or the other get their cut. Having Ukraine in NATO is but one method of ensuring the taxpayers will ultimately be on the hook for that debt, thus helping ensure that the servicing of the debt would be a grift that lasted forever.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 10 2024 21:24 utc | 82
reply to 48
https://www.the74million.org/article/a-slow-motion-crisis-gen-zs-battle-against-depression-addiction-hopelessness/
I think the above may be the most important single fact about economies and investment for the next 20 years or more. Society will fall apart because of massive mental illness in Gen Z. They won’t be able to hire enough cops or prison guards or people for boring factory jobs or engineers (because math is hard). Summary: there will be stagflation, shortages, bankruptcies, and more because Boomers etc, can’t hand off the economy to Gen Z. Forget MMT, this is critical.
And yes, this will curtail warmongering towards Russia/China – for a really bad reason.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 10 2024 21:28 utc | 83
Obviously the Russian fleet, as events proved, in Crimea was entirely vulnerable to long distance missile attack and relatively shorter distance drone air & seacraft. Clearly there’s no such thing as a sizable military vessel with an unbreachable hull or deck, resultant from an attack by even just a swarm of drones. Perhaps even the Russian submarine fleet if it were to be detected in shallower waters near Odessa would similarly be vulnerable to drone subs, etc. Which begs the question what if anything is the Russian fleet, any surface Russian fleet, good for at this point?
Posted by: Ludo | Mar 10 2024 21:30 utc | 84
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 10 2024 20:17 utc | 62
Pretty good. Perhaps optimistic. However you only need 1 for Luxemburg so 149 to send somewhere else. I would leave out Aust and NZ at this stage unless China is in the mix.
Here is a question for our shadow bots nuke em now.
If we assume that Russia uses a tactical nuke, then the west replies with nukes on Russia (say taking out 25% of key nuke sites quickly) and then Russia replies with its doomsday list or equivalent
Russia has 6200 nuclear bombs. If 25% of sites are neutralized quickly and if if 50% are duds which 2,500 sites in the collective west will be targeted. Now I am going to ask it of each of the “nuke-em-now” brigade.
So which 2,500 sites will be targeted
How many of the missiles will hit the target
How many people will be killed
How many of your own friends and relations will be killed
and of course the return – how many sites in Russia will be hit by USA and allies in a second strike.
and then how many US sites will be hit if China joins the battle?
Posted by: watcher | Mar 10 2024 21:31 utc | 85
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 21:16 utc | 80
What you think is irrilevant.
Ukrainians, or at least part of them, think they are fighting for their land.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 10 2024 21:41 utc | 87
WW3 sees advances in ISR on both sides to the point that neither side can assemble the necessary force concentrations to break through the lines and advance quickly so were back to WW1 in the trenches.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 10 2024 20:56 utc | 75
The smo is no ww3, ww2 or ww1. They did not lie, it’s a little police action, and even something that simple was badly prepared. Anyway, the +500k natokazes were erased with little effort and without moving outside Donbass. Kiev is as good as new because it’s still smo, but no one promised that peace automatically comes after smo.
Posted by: rk | Mar 10 2024 21:42 utc | 88
watcher | Mar 10 2024 21:31 utc | 85
Pine Gap and the US base at Exmouth are likely to be hit. Watched a bit of a youtube docu on pinegap that turned out quite good. interviews with people who researched it and tried a protest there. That was a big no no. They ended up escaping life in prison but some Australian laws were changed and the area around Pine Gap now is virtually a US shoot to kill zone. That encompasses the complete area the actual base may be visible from.
Pine gap is used for most US small missile and other targeting on this side of the world which includes up through the middle east.
Also something to do with US ICBMs.
Heaps of US bases in Australia so I assume there may be one or two more top secret bases that would be targets. I first learnt the extent of US bases from a bloke I met who’s mate contracted to do the security fencing around some of the bases. Perimeters of hundreds of kilometers for any. I later asked my brother about this as he had spent a number of year grading and had graded a lot of the roads in outback NT. He yeah, you only find out from the locals when near one otherwise they are out of site, out of mind. Nobody knows about them.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 21:47 utc | 89
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 21:31 utc | 86
Full of truths not fiction. Why this blog of b’s exists in the first place.
This jumping on an idea like a bitch in heat just because it massages a confirmation bias or gives some ideologue a hard on should be over.
If what is said does not match the actual government accounts and balance sheets and the assets and liabilities then it is a lie – period.
Not a maybe, not a if only, but a lie, a myth.
As humans and as members of the human race, regardless if you are left or right, lies should not be tolerated.
Especially, not accepted as fact just because an idea gave an ideologue a hard on or soothed their confirmation bias.
Or we will end up with one HUGE echo chamber.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Mar 10 2024 21:49 utc | 90
I’ve decided to write a rebuttal to Shadowbanned’s thesis that he/she keeps posting here. I don’t think SB is a troll. Too intelligent and clearly he/she knows Russian and Ukrainian history very well.
I also think Shadowbanned’s thesis that Russia is screwing up by not enforcing red lines and retaliating directly against NATO is a valid one and may in the end be proven correct. However, in the interest of trying not to attack the person and rather the argument, here goes:
SB = shadowbanned
1. THE ARGUMENT KEEPS SAYING THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AND DOES NOT INCORPORATE NEW INFORMATION
The core argument that Russia is not fighting the war properly by allowing NATO attacks deep into Russian territory reminds me of Lynyrd Skynyrd guitar solos. Each individual lick is impressive, but then they play the same thing over, and over, and over …
This war has being going on for 10 years since Maidan and has gone through many distinct phases. Surely something is behind Russia refusing to “react” to the many pinprick attacks and the no-so pinprick ones, like the sinking of their ships in the Black Sea. Newer evidence shows that patience pays off. Recently, several Patriot systems were destroyed by Russia and SB stays silent on those.
In SB’s defense, many other analysts fall to the same tendency, to fall in love with their own arguments despite new evidence. See Ritter, as a prime example.
2. SHADOWBANNED DOES NOT CONSIDER THAT SOMETIMES WEAKNESS CAN BE STRENGTH.
I agree with SB that Russia looks particularly weak in not escalating or responding in kind to the naval drone attacks that have damaged or sunk part of the Black Sea fleet. But just like Obe Won Kenobe said, sometimes there are other ways to fight vs. directly. We don’t know many things, such as whether NATO mercs such as the dead Frenchies were killed in response to specific actions by NATO. Privately, a message may have been sent there by Russia. We also don’t know how Russia might be planning a big response at a time and place of their choosing.
I consider this a possibility, but in SB’s defense sometimes you have to concede that Russia is acting weak in not immediately responding to something like the sinking of the Moskva with a hit directly on NATO assets, such as shooting down more Reapers or perhaps turning a part of Ukraine full of western relief workers into a mass graveyard.
3. SHADOWBANNED MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING HOW STUPID AMERICANS ARE AND HOW THEY WOULD REACT TO A MASS CASUALTY EVENT FEATURING THEIR OWN PEOPLE.
I still remember the post 9-11 period and the first Gulf War (when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.) The sheer jingoist and anti-Muslim fever was immense.
As long as Ukrainians and a few sheep-dipped mercs are doing the dying, nobody in the US cares. The list of things they care about more than dead Ukrainians includes:
a. This weeks’ March Madness basketball games;
b. Taylor Swift’s dress
c. The GDP of Bolivia.
Therefore, Russia may be playing things smart by not kicking a sleeping dog.
A big news headline about 100+ dead NATO soldiers including Americans might be just the thing to convince Americans to stop gambling on the latest AI stock, get behind a real war, send their kids to die, and pass more aid for Ukraine, currently in the deep freezer.
4. BECAUSE REACTING IN A “TIT-FOR-TAT” MANNER TO PROVOCATIONS COULD INDUCE OTHER COUNTRIES TO GET INVOLVED, RUSSIA IS SMART TO PLAY IT COOL.
If you look around the room, Putin is playing it cool while NATO leaders like Macron, Borrell, and others act like panicked monkeys. Russia seems to have no deadlines. Biden has a deadline – he’s toast by November 2024. Russia has thus far fought the war on their own terms, by keeping the front very close to their own borders and supply lines, while NATO has to send weapons through long supply chains involving oceans, mountains, and many countries. Logistics win wars, not headlines.
In conclusion, I respect SB’s argument and believe it may be correct in isolation. “Tit for tat” responses have their place. However, there are a lot of counter-arguments that lead me to think that it would be wise to look at the bigger strategic picture when considering the question of why Russia does not immediately retaliate with equal or greater force when it suffers a tactical loss.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 10 2024 21:53 utc | 91
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 10 2024 21:24 utc | 82
It’s possible one of the reasons we hear about ‘rebuilding Ukraine with 1 trillion dollars’ is because it provides another liquidity sink for western currencies, and potentially enables US to keep printing dollars just a teeny weeny bit longer because some of it gets sucked into another black hole project. And they will actually get the Europeans to pay the trillion or whatever they plan on injecting to Ukraine.
Of course, the rebuilding means mostly US companies getting contracts and building some stuff in Ukraine, which could partially slow down US losing its status and slow down the employment crisis. But at this point, to be honest it will be like peeing in the pants in extreme freezing temperatures.
Apparently US is also servicing the Israelis’ debt and funding increasing gaps in the Israeli economy. US pension funds have bought Israeli bonds and US is also propping them up by paying Israel’s expenses.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 10 2024 21:54 utc | 92
Echo Chamber | Mar 10 2024 21:49 utc | 90
Your trash echonomics is a bit like shadow trash. Something I just skip over now after reading one or two. Your style of trash echonomics relies on speculation to create bubbles. This is what the western world has embraced particularity since the collapse of the soviet union. Manufacturing, technology, medicine, education. Everything required for and actual economy has been gutted in the pursuit of speculation bubbles. Speculation trading and GDP at the expense of all else. GDP – the total money changing hands at a casino.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 22:02 utc | 93
@54 bad joke
Re base bleed gas generators.
Very interesting information thank you, I hadn’t heard that term before.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Mar 10 2024 22:07 utc | 94
unimperator | Mar 10 2024 21:54 utc | 92
I suspect the nation building crap was just a carrot to keep the Ukrainians fighting till the last Ukrainian.
Some of the idiot or more to the point corrupt Europeans may send some money for ‘nation building’, but the split between Ukraine officials and oligarchs and the corrupt EU officials would already have been negotiated.
Broad acre farming and large scale mining, which is what American companies are buying up, doesn’t require much population.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 22:12 utc | 95
@ vargas, §35:
That´s a most interesting question, vargas. I suspect, especially after Mike Benz´s revelations on Carlson´s §75, that the long-hidden control of Europe by America has now been blown wide open and bathed in bright sunlight.
The exposed, wriggling worms that are the current European leaders – especially Sunak, Macron and Scholz – are revealed as the tyrannical puppets they are, all cheer-led by the EU witch, Ursula fond-of-Lying, who is as corrupt and venal as any of the Mafiosi running Washington.
And they´re getting desperate . . .
Posted by: John Marks | Mar 10 2024 22:27 utc | 96
I was merely emphasizing what i imagine is enough talent and ability at the top level when I made the comparison to “LEGOs”, after I’d clearly prefaced this with the word “If” which anon2020 later buried! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If the R.F.’s Navy is built like their Army, it’s not fragile! Think LEGOs.
Posted by: Ben Trovata | Mar 10 2024 18:48 utc
Posted by: Ben Trovata | Mar 10 2024 22:27 utc | 97
The Abrams tanks do burn well.
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1766891196989706377
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 22:27 utc | 98
“Your style of trash echonomics relies on speculation to create bubbles. This is what the western world has embraced particularity since the collapse of the soviet union. Manufacturing, technology, medicine, education. Everything required for and actual economy has been gutted in the pursuit of speculation bubbles. Speculation trading and GDP at the expense of all else. GDP – the total money changing hands at a casino.”
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 22:02 utc | 93
If you think that is what is on offer then you are a clown Peter. Dumb infact. Not read the 30 year economic literature. You have guessed what You think it is. Lazy thinking as per usual, instead of You know, actually reading the academic work.
You put it in a box in your brain marked – does not fit my confirmation bias or ideology without even taking the time to understand it. Your TV and internet told You what to do with it because You are lazy.
You can’t provide solutions to world problems if you don’t know how money works Peter.
Once you do understand you don’t need people’s taxes for revenue and you don’t need to issue debt and rely on investors. Then you can concentrate on what really matters skills and real resources.
Here:
https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=61549
Now how stupid do you feel ? After harping on about bubbles and constant GDP growth ? That link is the complete opposite of your lazy thinking claims. Better take it out of that box in your mind that you put it in.
Once you understand money there’s a million and one ways to skin this cat. But you don’t understand it and will continue to provide the wrong solutions – Period.
You’ll end up with exactly the kind of economy you have just ranted about above. Money Scarcity will cause 2008 all over again.
Can’t you even grasp that Peter ? As you worry incorrectly and foolishly that your taxes will have to go up to pay for it ? Which stops anything getting done apart from war.
Here we are !
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Mar 10 2024 22:31 utc | 99
Even the usually cited examples of “decisive action” — Crimea, Syria and the SMO — were also reactive, not proactive measures, taken because of being painted in a corner with no other option left but total defeat.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 18:18 utc | 37
That is correct. Russia reacted in Crimea because it didn’t want to lose its naval base, and in Syria they finally reacted to prevent the government from falling as Russia would have lost its naval base there too. And it only reacted to Ukraine’s attack on the Donbas after 8 years.
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 10 2024 22:37 utc | 100