Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 16:52 utc | 189
Hi Shadowspinner
How mentally underexposed you must be to post such rubbish here.
Any attack on any of these positions would result in a full nuclear response.
See your psychiatrist!

Posted by: Oberbayer | Mar 9 2024 18:34 utc | 203

It would be more interesting to discuss why the collective west has not scaled up production of shells, patriot rockets and other weapons and still lag behind RF.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 9 2024 17:14 utc | 194

You know, it just dawned on me that if Putin continues to be a cuck, they don’t have to.
This was is a rebellion/civil war inside another rebellion/civil war inside another rebellion (but not a civil war)
Level 1: the L/DNR (and conscious Russians in Ukraine more generally) against the Banderites who had taken power.
Level 2: Ukrainian Banderite traitors (and modern day Vlasovites inside Russia) against the Russian motherland
Level 3: Russia rebelling against the global American empire
These asymmetries carry to the battlefield.
The L/DNR didn’t have much of a chance against the rearmed AFU. They fought well in 2014-2015 when the Russian army supported them against the much weaker AFU, but they had neither the manpower, nor the local MIC industry to resist without heavy Russian support.
Similarly, Ukraine has no ability to really resist against Russia without heavy external support.
And it has almost no MIC industry now either as the Russians destroyed most of it.
Then it moved to a proxy war of attrition, which Russia, thanks to the Soviet legacy, is always going to win — at some point the West will not be able to send enough stuff and then Russia will prevail.
At least that seems to be the plan.
But there is a catch — that plan works as long as Russian MIC industry is safe deep in the rear. If NATO destroys Russian industry in the rear, then Russia will be in the same position with respect to NATO as Ukraine is to Russia, without NATO having to go into total war mode. Unless China steps in and becomes the Russian rear, but that is still a loss for Russia — you are no longer a great power the moment you acquiesce to being bombed without responding.
Before anyone jumps in and says that the Kremlin won’t allow it, go back to early 2022 and consider whether two years later a third of the BSF would have been sunk by NATO with NATO suffering just one MQ-9 drone as loss on the other side? But be honest about it. Well, it was unthinkable back then but it happened and is fully normalized now.
Past behavior is the best predictor of future actions.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 18:48 utc | 205

Apparently 1 S-300 system and 2 Patriot PAC-3 launchers were struck today in the DPR area.
Kiev is forced to move its air defenses pretty close to the front now, they continue trying to ‘ambush’ Russian aircraft delivering bombs but at a hefty cost.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 18:54 utc | 207

@207 shadowbanned
I think you post too much too often and should rather contemplate more about your worldview and baseless assumptions.

Posted by: Rudi Ruessel | Mar 9 2024 18:56 utc | 209

On the contention regarding ‘act of war’ I agree with Peter AU1 here, although I agree with several observations Jake makes.
NATO, the US, and in particular the UK and France are clearly executing operations to cause serious harm against Russia and Russian citizens.
My view is that given NATOs blatant disregard for international law (not their hegemonic unipolar rules based order), their disregard for critical agreements to prevent NATO expansion into the Russian sphere, well, all bets are off.
My feeling is we are nearing a point where Russia will have no choice but to demonstrate a show of great force against NATO. Some pain is a good motivator.

Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Mar 9 2024 19:21 utc | 211

India is non-aligned. That has been its diplomatic position since independence. It’s hard for westerners (or Russians?) to really understand this, they think “is India in the Western camp? Is it in the Russian camp?” India is in India’s camp. Non-aligned means non-aligned. It does business with Russia, it does business with America, it does business with Europe. It really doesn’t like America and even more so Europe telling it who it can or can’t deal with, it reminds Indians of colonialism. But at the same time, it is not a Russian ally. It is not anyone’s ally. Unlike Turkey trying to play all sides, “I’m really on your side”, India is open about being non-aligned. People just have trouble understanding.
Indians view Russia as a low-maintenance friend. To be America’s friend is hard, America always asks you this or that. Russia doesn’t ask anything. Just don’t sanction us. Keep trading with us. And we will veto anti-Indian resolutions at the UN, we will sell you weapons, we will now sell you energy on the cheap that will make some Indians incredibly wealthy overnight reselling to the West.

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 19:37 utc | 213

Posted by: Global southerner | Mar 9 2024 19:27 utc | 214
It is pretty obvious all these ‘war economy’ mental gymnastics in the EU are only accelerating its decline. And they still want ‘green investments’, now they also want ‘war economy investments’, the two by themselves are mutually exclusive and contradictory. EU countries are cutting back every other budget to spend more on buying weapons from US companies, which they can’t afford. Economy is going into the toilet.
All the EU leaders have gone completely bananas and are throwing money around, into black holes and into the oven. So SMO has definitely accelerated the decline of the west, they are doing things without thinking which merely hurts themselves. They started going crazy when the evidence points to Ukraine gradually crumbling, not enough men or weapons to hold, and the prospect of Trump abandoning EU.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 19:54 utc | 215

Posted by: SlowSoft | Mar 9 2024 20:07 utc | 218
Ok Mr. Chessmaster lets have it your way.
Russia sent an army (from Belarus?) to ‘seal’ Lwow border in March 2022. Now all the Nato trained partizans and nazis began a massive guerrilla resistance in western Ukraine, while AFU overran Donetsk and Lugansk with the +200k troops they had piled in there. They slaughter a million civilians in Donbass. Mariupol would still be in Nato hands, and some Tochka-U hit the Crimea bridge from Mariupol.
Ukraine sent raids into Belgorod and other border area from Kharkov aided with the large pre-war stockpile of Nato weapons, because all the Russian army was busy in Lwow.
Any sporadic RU defense get ambushed and Javelins are much more effective in non-coordinated sporadic encounters with no strategy, because Russian army is trying to ‘seal Lwow’.
Non of the initial goals of the land bridge and annihilating the initial AFU army in Donbass would be achieved.
Chessmaster move sounds more like a recipe for disaster.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 20:18 utc | 217

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 18:48 utc | 207
As usual your is just projection.
It will not require much time to have Ukrainians combat with shovels.
Kuleba did told that a few days ago.

Posted by: Mario | Mar 9 2024 20:26 utc | 219

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 9 2024 20:33 utc | 222
If you look at AFU reported numbers and compare to something like Mediazona casualty numbers (throw in another 50 % on top), about 70 % of AFU reported numbers are made up excess.
While Russian numbers are relatively accurate or even conservative, considering they don’t really measure rear strikes accurately (it might have gotten a bit better over time as they have better ISR).
The AFU is more like copying Goebbels outright lies. Russian don’t lie in what they say, they just omit reporting sometimes.
The ‘mobilization methods and scale’ in Ukraine and drafting cripples as told by various Ukraine opposition channels are pretty indicative, the easy pool of manpower is long gone and it’s a struggle or scraping barrels now.
I have not seen a single video of forced mobilization from the street in Russia. Nor a video where Russian troops blockade a sanatorium, drag all the patients out and send them to Avdeevka.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 20:47 utc | 221

Mario@194
They lack gun cotton – produced in China and for some reason they cannot acquire it.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 9 2024 17:39 utc | 196
Xinjiang cotton is what has been used. Apparently high quality/best quality for the propellant process. The US sanctioned the west out of propellant when it sanctioned the Uighur’s.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 20:53 utc | 223

It is not anyone’s ally. Unlike Turkey trying to play all sides, “I’m really on your side”, India is open about being non-aligned. People just have trouble understanding.
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 19:37 utc | 215
Not true. They are techically US’ and Israel’ ally. And legally. Even more since they’ve approved 3 US navy repair bases last year and a long list of other things as part of their new military coalition, publicly created against China. you can easily google, but you prefer to invent things. And they’re not interested in brics projects either.

Posted by: rk | Mar 9 2024 20:54 utc | 225

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 20:53 utc | 225
Even if, and ibeg your pardon, I don’t buy it it’s anyway another giant fuck up of the collective west.

Posted by: Mario | Mar 9 2024 20:57 utc | 227

https://t.me/intelslava/55857

Well, I will state the obvious here:
A lot of these videos, destruction of Patriots, S-300, NASAMS, HIMARS etc.
They are “old” videos from up 6 months ago. For example in the famous HIMARS video, the launcher is surrounded by yellow wheat fields, i.e. it was destroyed by summer.
It is no secret that Russia, especially the MoD does not show or shows very little of what it records, from destruction of important systems to simple drones blowing up in the face of soldiers …
Do you think that there are not as many or more videos of the most disgusting characteristics, with Ukrainian soldiers cut in half, as the Ukrainians strive to show and spread to the four winds?
Yes, there are, and many more.
The MoD simply does not show anything, in the same way that they hardly communicate anything when bad things happen (like destruction of ships).
Elections are near in Russia, and now all these films are coming out …
Russian planes have been operating for months as if Ukrainian air defence did not exist, so it is not difficult to imagine the chronological order of these events …

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 9 2024 21:06 utc | 229

In regards to why Russia hasn’t taken out Ukraine’s electrical grid, HB Norica made a point I hadn’t considered – that doing so would risk meltdowns in 404’s nuke plants and a major catastrophe. I had thought that Russia held back because blacking out Kiev would cause a humanitarian catastrophe. No potable water, normal life essentially shut down, and the entire city would have to empty, or most of it. I read somewhere that when the electrical grid was being attacked in ’23, Kiev was makings plan for the inevitable shutdown. But Russia held off, at least for the winter, because of the civilian damage it would produce.
At any rate the shutdown of Kiev via the electrical grid would create a mass migration into Europe that is the last thing Europe want to see. My question is, is shutting down major Ukrainian cities even possible without risking the nuke plants melting down? And if it is possible, is such a shutdown, and the migration crisis it would cause in Europe, a trump card that Russia is holding close to its vest? In other words, something like ‘you take out our bridge, and we send a million refugees your way in a short time.’

Posted by: Mike R | Mar 9 2024 21:08 utc | 231

There has been a lot of talk about “Poseidon” here.
How much of it matches the reality of the US nuclear weapons tests conducted as “Crossroads” out in the Pacific Ocean? Shouldn’t the claims made here be observable in some of those tests? Even at a smaller scale?

Posted by: ed4 | Mar 9 2024 21:12 utc | 233

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 21:13 utc | 236
You are projecting fails of the west on RF.
It’s the west that lag behind the RF weapon production, not the other way around.
NATO is clearly a paper tiger, US + UK, did attack Houthis, as you suggest RF should do with nato, but they didn’t go anywhere, in the same way that they will go nowhere attacking RF with a handful of drones.
Remember, RF is much more powerful than Houthis even if they are backed by Iran.

Posted by: Mario | Mar 9 2024 21:21 utc | 235

Mario | Mar 9 2024 20:57 utc | 229
I tried doing a little more research on source material for western/US propellant but difficult to find anything really solid.
It seems though that the US, and I assume Europe had been importing most of their nitrocellulose for the manufacture of propellant rather than the raw material. It is also used in a lot of other things and comes in different grades.
The raw cotton also has various grades, sorted according to the type of nitrocellulose that will be produced from it.
Apparently the best grade for propellant come from that Turkic stans region which runs through into western China. Russia has bee buying most of their supplies from the likes of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
According to a US gun nuts forum, the price of propellant in the US seems to have nearly doubled in the last couple of years and apparently the US had been importing most of its nitrocellulose from China and Russia.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 21:40 utc | 237

Posted by: Spinworthy | Mar 9 2024 21:27 utc | 238
Good sensible post.
I more or less know its tone now so skip quickly and ignore, but it is irritatiing – like head lice or toe fungus.

Posted by: watcher | Mar 9 2024 21:43 utc | 239

unimperator | Mar 9 2024 21:12 utc | 234
I did see the US production rate of interceptors some time ago in relation to both Ukraine and Israel. Production rate is very small compared to the rates they were being used.
Having them fire million dollar+ interceptors at cheap drones quickly drains the inventory.
In Ukraine, it looks like whatever of the patriot systems remain have gone mobile and pop up for a sniper shot here and there with the few remaining interceptors.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 21:51 utc | 241

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 21:05 utc | 230
LOl. I will take the RF words over yours. I don’t think things are as dire as you say. I don’t have the same emotional attachment to it as you do though. Russia may lose a few skirmish here and there but they will prevail in their SMO objectives. Your words remind me of the time I had a bunch of CISIS candidates over for a BBQ. Those people have very weird ideas/beliefs.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Mar 9 2024 21:54 utc | 243

Mario:
Maybe. Or maybe the Russians get tired.
Or maybe both sides get tired and we end up with a Korean War solution. Note that territory DOES matter there, since the line get’s frozen at the line of contact. You ain’t getting Odessa that way. You ain’t even getting all the annexed oblasts that way.
But in any case, the current Ukrop stabilization of the line and the RFA failure to push forward, post Avdiivka, sure puts to shame all the “rout” claims and all the “can’t hold because no prepared defenses further back” claims. Sure looks like mid-FEB Avdiivka wasn’t the magic time for a phase change in the combat fluid.

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 9 2024 22:01 utc | 245

Yes, I am projecting — projecting current trends into the future.
The conclusions of which exercise are fairly non-controversial and hard to argue with.
It is your job to explain what will happen to prevent that outcome.
Instead you reply with “as usual your is just projection”, as if that is an argument.
The facts are that:
1) NATO is striking inside Russia already.
2) The Kremlin isn’t doing anything kinetic to stop it
3) NATO has now announced its intention to ramp up those strikes
4) If the Kremlin does nothing to stop them, gradually its MIC and other strategic infrastructure will be destroyed.
What exactly is unfounded “projection” here?
What can stop it?
A) NATO, out of the goodness of their hearts, decides to no longer carry out such strikes
B) The Kremlin finally does something kinetic to force them to stop
Other options? I don’t see any.
But NATO stopping on its own is not going to happen, so that leaves the Kremlin finally waking up as the only option. If it doesn’t wake up, then we logically end up with 4) as the projected outcome.
Please explain to us how that is an incorrect conclusion?.

What is remarkably fascinating is that shadowbanned is one of the most level-headed barflies out there. This is a purely logical post, deprived of any emotion, which just proposes a (from my point of view) mathematically sound reasoning. Indeed, I cannot see any other scenario as the A) or B) you describe.
It’s that simple, really : it is up to Russia to stop NATO. And currently, NATO is striking Russia’s deep rear with impunity, or at least isn’t sufficiently deterred to do so.
All those people pooh-poohing it have apparently never witnessed a schoolyard fight or seen how as a bully operates. NATO is the bully. If you look the other way while the bully is pulling your pants or twisting your arm, it will not make the bully go away ; it will only embolden him to go further. Your only choices are A) fight or B) flight.
Russia cannot flight. It just cannot teleport itself on another planet. No, sir. So, the only choice left is to fight, and by that I mean : to inflict such incommensurate pain on NATO that it will break its will.
Currently, NATO’s will is not broken. Ask anyone in the street. I mean, I did. I talk to people in France. For them Ukraine is far away and they feel completely secure and self-justified. They have no fear.

Posted by: Micron | Mar 9 2024 22:11 utc | 247

@Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 21:40 utc | 239
As more correctly noted in your post ‘gun cotton’ is properly referred to as nitrocellulose, and while cotton was initially used to make it, these days cellulose from wood pulp commonly is used. Used for a large variety of products including (infamously) nitrocellulose film which is subject to spontaneous combustion.
A bit on pre-wwii manufacture:
http://www.greenacre.info/RNCF/page25.html
I guess outsourcing to cheap labor venues has led to supply issues for some countries.
I didn’t know these things.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 9 2024 22:12 utc | 249

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 9 2024 22:01 utc | 247
Time will tell.
I guess Noone was expecting Adveeka falling in such a short time.
Korean solution is probably exactly RF goal.
My take is that new border will be on Dniepr but Odessa is a must.
Not shure how and when but RF will not stop.
RF getting tired or frozen conflict is wishful thinking of the west.
They where expecting the conflict would naturally freeze in winter so that they can push some more weapons in Ukraine.
Unfortunately RF didn’t play on their line.

Posted by: Mario | Mar 9 2024 22:16 utc | 251

Posted by: ed4 | Mar 9 2024 21:12 utc | 235
If you detonate in shallow water you get radioactive spray, the energy is transfered to the atmosphere.
You need depth to avoid that, so the energy is kept in the water at high temperature and lower density than cold seawater, thus expanding in all directions, including upwards to the surface. That is how you get the wave. The wave does not carry water, it just an oscillation until it gets onshore or reaches very shallow water. Waves can travel thousands of kms quite efficiently. It is easiest to do an energy balance. If just 1% of a 1 megaton bomb is converted to wave energy, 1000 km away you will still have an energy equivalent of some 3 kg of TNT per meter of shoreline. That is of course a lot of momentum in the water mass, enough to ram a cliff or invade a low coastline in depth.
Naturally, if the attacked nation can retaliate, we are in a civilization threatening event. If the chosen location is deserted, such as a deep Arctic lake or ice shelf, the resulting devastation would give everyone pause. I am afraid we are doomed, maybe not this decade or next, but likely over the course of one century or two. Our toys are way too complex and powerful compared to our capacity.

Posted by: biochar | Mar 9 2024 22:31 utc | 253

They were tested twice last week — NATO planes were heading straight for the Russian border over the Black Sea. First the British did it, then the French.
Testing the Russian resolve apparently. And they found it insufficient — Su-27/35ss were scrambled to escort those planes back but there was no shoot down.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 18:34 utc | 204
Why are you acting like this is some kind of a crisis? NATO /USA have been doing that on anywhere from a weekly basis to daily since 1946. They do it to test response time. The Russians reciprocate.
The Russians stopped for awhile after the USSR collapsed but started up again over a decade ago testing NATO response times.
Occasionally one side or the other take it too far and someone gets shot down. It hasn’t happened recently but it happened quite regularly during the cold war … especially in the early years.
You seem to be upset that NATO did this in Crimea. Are you not concerned about the even greater number of incidents in the Baltic like when the USAF flew a B-52 almost up to St Petersburg awhile back or all the intercepts that happen any time NATO runs exercises in the Baltic.
The USA has no intentions of going kinetic with Russia right now. China is their main strategic competitor and the USA is not in the best shape militarily, politically or economically. Their navy is short about 100 vessles and they no longer have the capability to replenish at sea. Their ships are aging, they spent big on vessles that turned out to be complete failures like the LCS. They have trouble scraping together air wings to man their carriers. They’ve been unable to meet their recruitment levels.
If anything the USA is looking for a way out of the Crimean war. The shit canning of Vicky Nuland and replacing her with the guy who was the architect of the retreat from Afghanistan has taken he place. This war has destroyed the Democrat party … they can’t speak the words but they are in full damage control right now … and a nuclear war with Russia ain’t gonna fix that problem.
IF the USA stumbles into a war with Russia it’ll be out of incompetence rather than guile. Wars are dangerous, especially when Russia and the USA are involved. I’ve lost sleep over this conflict however there’s nothing I can do about it. Neither Biden or Putin return my calls. There’s absolutely a risk that this war could go horribly wrong but it will be because of a mistake not because someone thought they can win a nuclear conflict

Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 9 2024 22:37 utc | 255

the pessimist | Mar 9 2024 22:12 utc | 251
I think there are about five different grades of nitro cellulose each having different end use. Additive for paint, film, and many other products.
Did read about wood pulp being also used as raw material. Something about it used for US military propellants as well.
Shortage may simply be due to offshoring. Exporting cotton, wood chips ect then importing refined, manufactured goods.
This report on nitrocellulose world markets is interesting and likely contains the reason for western propellant shortage.
https://www.industryarc.com/Report/16178/nitrocellulose-market.html
A science paper here on using civilian grade nitrocellulose for propellant.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0141391024000338
From that science paper it seems propellant grade is still mostly made from cotton, and from other reading it has to be the right grade of cotton.
Western shortages though seems to revolve around have previously offshoring of refining/manufacturing which includes basic nitrocellulose production.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 22:58 utc | 257

^ Guessing Zaluzhny got probably half the amount the rest went to kickbacks to people in the Kiev and UK governments that had to ok the ambassador deal.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 9 2024 23:31 utc | 259

I just posted this on the wrong thread….sigh….it belongs here
Reuters has a posting up with the title
Pope says Ukraine should have ‘courage of the white flag’ of negotiations
the sub-title

Francis made his comments in an interview recorded last month with Swiss broadcaster RSI. It is due to be broadcast on March 20.

On my dance card, I have Pope Frank as part of the God Of Mammon cult and so I see this as significant.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 9 2024 23:51 utc | 261

Posted by: Micron | Mar 9 2024 22:11 utc | 249

Russia cannot flight. It just cannot teleport itself on another planet. No, sir. So, the only choice left is to fight, and by that I mean : to inflict such incommensurate pain on NATO that it will break its will.

Well there is always the option to surrender.
After all, Russia has been offering that very option to Ukraine from the very start of the conflict. But Ukraine choose to fight. So, here we are: Russia does not want to surrender to NATO, Ukraine does not want to surrender to Russia, the fight goes on.

Posted by: hopehely | Mar 10 2024 0:05 utc | 263

Mario @ 253

My take is that new border will be on Dniepr but Odessa is a must.

Huh? Can’t be both, and you can’t get there from here. It’s Kherson then Nikolaev then Odessa, all three or nothing. Purely militarily Odessa has become existential for Russia, RF can no longer have security guarantees w/ taking Kherson, Nikolaev, Odessa. No idea how they plan to accomplish it, either Kiev collapses, or the war is really just starting.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 10 2024 0:20 utc | 265

In response to
”
Right about the Mammon cult wrong about the significance. How’s the Church going to sell the Prince Of Peace con if they don’t play the part?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 10 2024 0:26 utc | 268
”
Pope Frank and his boys have been banking private interest/usury money since the Crusades. If Ukraine gives up to Russia, it is a dagger in the body of the God Of Mammon cult and it furthers the multipolar world which is going to lose christianity along with colonialism as it moves away from private finance…..what are the catholic church financial/art holdings and banking situation?….they are doing God’s work so don’t ask….

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 10 2024 0:54 utc | 267

notabot | Mar 9 2024 23:51 utc | 264 “terroir”
Thanks for that. Didn’t know the word existed so had to look it up.
……….
That takes it full circle back to the stans/western China area and Russia and China being the main exporters of nitro cellulose.

https://forum.cartridgecollectors.org/t/gunpowder-a-possible-shortage/58221
News from Shotshow 2024: I just got home from 4 days in Las Vegas at the shotshow, where I met with the people from the factories we work with, factory sales people, factory directors and owners, importers, etc. The big point of discussion seemed to be shortness in supply for nitrocellulose, which is the raw material used to make gunpowder and other propellants and explosives. Based on these conversations, the issue seems to be based on 2 factors, decreased availability in the supply chain and increased demand for the manufacturing of military ordnance. Getting into the details and a little more, a huge percentage of the nitrocellulose used to make gunpowder historically came from China and Russia, however according to my conversations with industry partners, the Chinese manufacturers who historically were the biggest suppliers at over 30% of the market share are no longer willing to ship raw nitrocellulose to the USA or NATO member countries in attempt to reduce the USA & NATO’s ability to supply Ukrainian forces with artillery shells, and of course Russia who historically was the 2nd biggest supplier is out of the supply chain as well.

And this
There was also another article I ran onto earlier about EU not being able to Ramp up production of propellant as it too had bought its nitro cellulose from China.
Then there is this one
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eu-imposes-china-sanctions-over-xinjiang-abuses-first-three-decades-2021-03-22/ “EU, China impose tit-for-tat sanctions over Xinjiang abuses”
Bloody clowns. Go to war with Russia and China then realize “oh shit. We got no powder”.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 10 2024 2:06 utc | 269

I think both (US / Russia) are caught in a trap of their own making. Neither side can take a step back, neither side can ‘win’ (control the situation in Ukraine alone) so it is a checkmate. It doesn’t really matter too much in the short term where the ‘LOC/border’ is.
The advantage however is with the US because they have many more options open to them that Russia. Putin cannot retreat, cannot back down. The US can wash it’s hands of Ukr and walk away to fight another day. Leaving Russia right where it was in Feb 2022 with no security agreements, only the border has moved slightly more westwards. Ukraine may not be in Nato but it is as close to being the same the 10 year bilateral military agreements in place now.
And no one was going to recognize any of these Oblasts as Russian. What does Putin do if/when Ukr and the US continue refuse to agree to a ceasefire or new security arrangement/treaty? Take Kiev and all of Ukr up to the Polish border? No. That places Russia right next door to Nato in Poland and Romania etc. Plus Finland too now. How is any of this better than before Feb 2022? It’s not better, it’s worse than ever.
So what is Russia’s exit strategy and resolution to this conflict with US/Nato over Ukraine and Russia’s security interests? Much like Bush II in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Obama in Syria, they do not have a practical strategy. This could go on seemingly forever like East and West Germany did.
They will continue with the lying and propagandizing but no one will be throwing nukes at each other.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 10 2024 2:12 utc | 271

For every problem there’s a solution , ,well sort of, anti drone net shotgun shells. Made in China of course, here is a test, bird shot seemed to be probably better for efficiency and cost
https://youtu.be/vF2tnFC_q8A?si=WhtNljCdaE9JshGP

Posted by: Hankster | Mar 10 2024 2:17 utc | 273

Russians continue to advance. Weeb Union is similar. Not blitzkreig but moving forward.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 10 2024 1:45 utc | 270

I am actually not too worried about the rate of advance, although that is an unpleasant situation. Avdeevka fell much sooner, quicker and more easily than I expected, so not seeing a complete collapse immediately after that is not something I am freaking out about — I didn’t expect one any time soon anyway.
It will come sooner or later if NATO does not come up with another huge injection of weapons and ammo, if NATO does not join the war directly, and if NATO does not ramp up strikes inside Russia with Putin just accepting it. It’s those three things I am worried about.
Especially the last one — as I said, Russia is finished as a great power the moment the first serious open strike inside it happens and there are no missiles flying back towards Western Europe.
P.S. Let’s once again remind that something like that already happened three times in Belgorod, with lots of victims. What followed? RU protested at the UN, summoned the Czechs (whose weapons were used to carry out the strike) to give an explanation at the UNSC, then the Czech FM publicly laughed at RU and refused to appear. And that was it. Zero kinetic or any other consequences. So then, naturally, two more such strikes followed.
That was, to say the least, not a promising sign.
The original, quite officially issued too, promise was that if Western weapons are used to strike inside Russia, the factories making them would be destroyed. But the Tatra factories are fully intact still to this day.
They could have at least vaporized the Czech embassy in Kiev. The death toll from the Belgorod strikes is around 40 civilians at this point. I doubt there are that many Czechs in the Kiev embassy, but there has to be a couple dozen. And most of them were directly involved in the transfer of those weapons, so they deserve an Iskander on their heads. By “mistake”, as happened to the Chinese in Belgrade in 1999.
But even that was not done…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 2:24 utc | 275

For years I was wandering how b is managing to keep this site relatively clean of spammers.
As of lately things have changed. I am not sure if it is because over the years b has got tired or because MoA hasn’t been high on (whomever) priority list.
Some sites have filter so you can block posters you don’t want to see. I wish MoA has such feature.

Posted by: 2+2=5 | Mar 10 2024 2:59 utc | 277

It was necessary to knock out the ukronazis in the first days of Chessmasters SlowMo
From the beginning they had to seal the western borders
But therefore you ve to declare war and general mobilization.
With SloMo chessmaster has given Ukronazis & western partners valuable time
With every additional day his western partners getting more & more motivated to attack In the rear
Posted by: SlowSoft | Mar 9 2024 20:07 utc | 218
Shadowbanned and SlowSoft both stress the importance of sealing the western borders. I remember thinking at the beginning how Russia should destroy the bridges and crossings at the western border.
Russia has to figure out how to stop or slow Ukraine’s supply lines.

Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 10 2024 3:16 utc | 279

Posted by: pesec | Mar 10 2024 3:32 utc | 282

Full support of #277 shadowbanned.
Looks like you are the only one here who knows the subject matter. Others ( who write “crests” for xoxly) are extremely naive.

Wait, but that was him who did that… ah, you rascal you!

Posted by: hopehely | Mar 10 2024 3:51 utc | 281

Posted by: pesec | Mar 10 2024 3:32 utc | 282
You might as well do your out AI. Shadow Banned is a bot

Posted by: watcher | Mar 10 2024 3:58 utc | 283

Full support of #277 shadowbanned.
Looks like you are the only one here who knows the subject matter. Others ( who write “crests” for xoxly) are extremely naive.
Wait, but that was him who did that… ah, you rascal you!
Posted by: hopehely | Mar 10 2024 3:51 utc | 283
Another sockpuppet account. That Brave Sir Shadowbanned is a busy fella.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 10 2024 4:15 utc | 285

India is non-aligned. That has been its diplomatic position since independence. It’s hard for westerners (or Russians?) to really understand this, they think “is India in the Western camp? Is it in the Russian camp?” India is in India’s camp. Non-aligned means non-aligned.
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 19:37 utc | 215
Indeed, which is why it is ludicrous to think of India in the “anti-China western” camp. Having issues with China over their border (which there are multiple mechanisms to use to resolve that issue – bilaterally and multilaterally) isn’t the same thing as being in the western camp. But some posters here don’t understand the history of the region, or India’s foreign policy.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 10 2024 4:21 utc | 287

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 2:24 utc | 277

It will come sooner or later if NATO does not come up with another huge injection of weapons and ammo, if NATO does not join the war directly, and if NATO does not ramp up strikes inside Russia with Putin just accepting it. It’s those three things I am worried about.
Especially the last one — as I said, Russia is finished as a great power the moment the first serious open strike inside it happens and there are no missiles flying back towards Western Europe.

So what if Russia is finished as a great power? Why should we worry or care about status and prestige of any state in general, and Russia in particular?
Enough with this ‘exceptional nation’ crap.

Posted by: hopehely | Mar 10 2024 4:26 utc | 289

Especially the last one — as I said, Russia is finished as a great power the moment the first serious open strike inside it happens and there are no missiles flying back towards Western Europe.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 2:24 utc | 277
As long as Russia has its nuclear arsenal and can exert influence in its near abroad it will be a great power. The US is still a great power despite its losses in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is no longer the hegemon, and is somewhat diminished, but not to the point it isn’t a great power. Same will be true for Russia.
Not responding to a cheap shot by a nuclear-armed alliance in a tit for tat situation doesn’t diminish Russia. There are other leverage points Moscow can use: asymmetrical responses, ground operations, propaganda, election meddling, economic and legal leverage, proxies, etc. if, and it is still a monumental if, a NATO member openly attacks Russia. A nuclear strike isn’t necessarily the first option.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 10 2024 4:57 utc | 291

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 4:16 utc | 288
You are not a bot when you post ordinary short comments so their is a real person behind the bot, but your long diatribes are mostly bot generated or copied/pasted.
Thing is SB you are repetitive and always say the SAME thing. there is no subtlety to your stuff and no nuance. That is what is like a bot.
You repeat the SAME stuff, over, and over, and over and over again.
You have made your simplistic list of points. Why keep repeating them seventy times each thread. I read your stuff the first 100 times now I do not bother.
So for newbies here Shadow band says:
1. Rockets/drones hitting Russia ooohhh ahhh! Red lines cross Russia should nuke someone – Ukraine or NATO
2. Putin is pussy because he hasn’t nuked anyone yet
3. Coup now in Russia because Putin is pussy.
Now if there is anything more erudite to say please do but it is only AI jargon saying the same thing in 5,000 words.

Posted by: watcher | Mar 10 2024 5:12 utc | 293

Posted by: James M. | Mar 10 2024 5:05 utc | 294

It’s just a way to categorize states, used mostly by political scientists, historians, and policy analysts and makers.

Right. So for the rest of us, like ordinary people, that designation should be irrelevant.
But since Sir Shadowbanned worries greatly about it, he must be someone important… Or he is just channeling Viktor Alksnis here. Maybe that is him actually?!?

Posted by: hopehely | Mar 10 2024 5:36 utc | 295

Not responding to a cheap shot by a nuclear-armed alliance in a tit for tat situation doesn’t diminish Russia. There are other leverage points Moscow can use: asymmetrical responses, ground operations, propaganda, election meddling, economic and legal leverage, proxies, etc. if, and it is still a monumental if, a NATO member openly attacks Russia. A nuclear strike isn’t necessarily the first option.
Posted by: James M. | Mar 10 2024 4:57 utc | 293

I can’t believe what I am reading.
The nuclear arsenal is not going to exist once the facilities needed to replenish it have been bombed to bits. How hard is that simple point to grasp?
What kinds of weapons is Iraq producing today? Or Lybia?

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 10 2024 5:44 utc | 297

Of course this is long term thinking, based on successful SMO. But, many a slip……

Posted by: Global southerner | Mar 10 2024 5:59 utc | 299