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March 8, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-073
Comments
Posted by: Ed | Mar 9 2024 3:47 utc | 83
The fact that US put in place a ‘clean up guy for failed US policies’ and isn’t sending money to Ukraine means Ukraine project is over as far as US goes, and US have much less ability to set policies regarding Ukraine. They will keep making BS statements of victory (while leaving, like Afghanistan).
Dmitry Orlov said the only thing US can try to do is make Russia bite too much of Ukraine in hopes that Russia will get sucked into a black hole and choke on it.
EU is trying to take over, but contrary to what you could think of all the hubris, is in a much weaker position to prop up the Kiev regime or its ability to wage war.
Russia isn’t intending to ‘choke on’ Ukraine, they will just neuter its ability to wage war and wait till eventually Kiev regime loses control of eastern and central parts. No one knows the exact future but the odds are actually indicating that EU might retain control in the west, per the government-in-exile plan but they won’t be able to retain control over much more.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 6:12 utc | 101
James M @96
No shared border until 1957 Chinese invasion of Tibet. Mostly sea trade before. Opium trade via British India in XIX Century as well.
Posted by: AJ | Mar 9 2024 6:18 utc | 102
Re RF revenge attacks on the meddlesome Englishmen, I just can’t see Putin agreeing to any strike on anyone OUTSIDE of Ukraine. He’s too legalistic to break international laws or sovereign borders, >>> with the following exceptions:
A missile or a fighter jet or a drone departing foreign soil and landing within mainland Russia (including its presently formalised oblasts). That would effortlessly qualify as an act of war by a third party and would no doubt be punished. I predict maybe one or two diplomatic cautions before lightening would strike.
If you look at Putin’s/Lavrov’s so-called designated redlines, they have been threatened and skirted but not technically crossed … yet. Most redlines have actually been spectators’ imaginings or wishful thinking.
Ukraine launching foreign weapons at RF forces and into mainland RF does not, in Putin’s world, warrant any international retaliation.
Nor does any country’s adviser’s or controllers or instructors or operators. All such people of any nation are seen as combatants within “his” battle playground and are duly fair game for elimination — as will be any French troops popping in to defend Odessa as promised by Macron. 15,000 visiting Froggies are just 15,000 more FAB targets — maybe 15 days extra work. No biggie. Certainly not worth striking the Eifell Tower for.
The Brits are essentially no different to any other UKR visitors and supporters, only more zealous and fixated and motivated by their failing military empire. I think sooner or later their citizenry will tire of the many pounds being burned up in this useless exercise, as have the US Congress. It’s interesting how little UK Parliamentary dissent there has been. But George Galloway MP will soon change that!
I think the MoDs approach, as sensible although annoying as it is, is just to keep on with daily attrition of anyone and any weapon which ventures into Ukraine. I don’t think external strikes will do anything other than make for a massive escalation.
So the SMO just rolls on, tediously consuming everything fed into its jaws. I think a tipping point will come when RF weapons stock and tech developnent will just overwhelm everything the West can throw at it. By which time RF will probably be at Bankova’s doors with a surrender for Zelensky to sign. I’m quietly confident about things.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 9 2024 6:20 utc | 103
Jake Blanchard | Mar 9 2024 6:20 utc | 103
Best to look up war for the legalistic aspect. Although it uses Ukraine as a figleaf proxy, UK is very overt in its strikes on Russia.
What the Brits are doing have been doing and continue to do more transparently all the time are acts of war.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 6:26 utc | 104
A missile or a fighter jet or a drone departing foreign soil and landing within mainland Russia (including its presently formalised oblasts). That would effortlessly qualify as an act of war by a third party and would no doubt be punished. I predict maybe one or two diplomatic cautions before lightening would strike.
Already happened, multiple times. But not “proven”
Ukraine launching foreign weapons at RF forces and into mainland RF does not, in Putin’s world, warrant any international retaliation.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 9 2024 6:20 utc | 103
Let them start moving the nukes into Ukraine then, Putin won’t do anything, by that logic.
If Putin allows Russian industry and military infrastructure to be destroyed night after night by NATO drones and missiles (because that is exactly what is starting to happen right now) under the pretense that it is the Ukrainians doing it and not NATO, there must be a coup in the Kremlin immediately and he must be replaced by someone who will reestablish deterrence.
Because otherwise that is a one-way pathway to total defeat.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 6:33 utc | 105
I think a tipping point will come when RF weapons stock and tech developnent will just overwhelm everything the West can throw at it. By which time RF will probably be at Bankova’s doors with a surrender for Zelensky to sign. I’m quietly confident about things.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 9 2024 6:20 utc | 103
There won’t be such a tipping point if the ammunition factories and the huge ammo depots that were thought to be safe deep in the Russian rear are blown up one by one while Putin is sitting on his hands.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 6:35 utc | 106
unimperator @101
The man to replace Nudelman was in chatge in Afghanistan, overseeing the worst-executed withdrawal since the night Hunter Biden was conceived. While throwing reserves into the fight, slowing down the inevitable Russian advance, the US need to develop a fall-back plan, the most logical one would be to fall back (pun intended) to the Western bank of the Dnyepr and try to negotiate a cease-fire. As it is an election year, and it would look like a defeat, it probably will not happen, though.
Posted by: AJ | Mar 9 2024 6:36 utc | 107
Was catching up with all the comments this morning and it seems the shadowbastard has attracted a lot of attention. Shadowbastard is what is called a faulty fruitcake. He is too variable, not consistent. One moment he will advocate that Russia nukes everything, the next he will display a humanist slant, and might even support Putin’s strategy in Ukraine. Shadowbastard is entirely too variable to take seriously.
To give an example, Prigozhin was also a faulty fruitcake with too much variability. One day he was fighting Russia’s enemies and the next he was leading armed insurrections against Putin. Prigozhin was entirely too variable to tolerate so he got bumped off. In any war you want consistency and constants, variables get eliminated to make matters manageable.
And right now shadowbastard is harping on his latest fixation, the drones hitting Russia. Russians are not pussies, some few drones aren’t going to faze them too much. Russia is so big that the Russians can move industries to safer, remote areas, where no drones are allowed within a thousand kilometers as there are no civilians or houses within the thousand k’s. Prep that boundary area with lots of drone detectors and anti drone weapons and the actual industries surrounded by multi layers of fences hundreds of meters high with lots of those old German WW2 flak towers and the industry is safe from drones. Drones are an irritation to Russia, not an existential threat as shadowbastard is making it out to be.
If the drones are a threat to Russia then Russia will have to go harder into Ukraine, as simple as that. Since Russia is still taking her own sweet time in Ukraine it stands to reason that Russia is not threatened by the drones. Of course shadowbastard wants Russia to go fullscale into Ukraine, with nukes as well, so he over-dramatises the drone threat. Putin decides what gets done, and when things get done, not shadowbastard.
Of course I’d like to see Russia hitting Europe with drones as well, those dykes and pump stations in the Netherlands make an excellent target. But that will have to wait till later unfortunately.
Posted by: gT | Mar 9 2024 6:45 utc | 108
Posted by: https://www.cfr.org/ | Mar 9 2024 6:05 utc | 99
Oh my, you read one article online and you think you’re an expert. I know all about the Quad, and its lack of institutionalization. Ever heard of the SCO? No? Ever heard of Hand-in-Hand? No? Sino-Indian military cooperation goes back a long ways, long before the Quad. And that’s not to mention BRICS or bilateral trade relations.
As for Modi and his nationalism, which is a relatively new phenomenon, at least in terms of the Sino-Indian relationship – its not going to have a long term impact. There are limits to it and doesn’t even verge to hindutva. I mean they should worry about the Sikhs first at least. Anyway, Modi’s philosophy doesn’t extend to anti-Sino sentiment to the point India is going to join some “anti-China” coalition.
You call me naïve, but look at your chain of logic: A news item stating that an Indian citizen was lured by criminal elements to fight in Ukraine for Russia is a Western propaganda piece designed to what – cleave India from Russia because Russia isn’t anti-China enough? And India is part of the anti-China west? Yet still trades heavily with China, its leaders attend meetings, and India didn’t impose sanctions on Russia.
I know you have an agenda, and just want to lecture your talking points to whoever will listen, as most all posters here tend to do. But you’re simply wrong about this. Bottom line – India’s not part of any “anti-China west”, at least not yet, and not part of the West at all.
Posted by: James M. | Mar 9 2024 6:54 utc | 109
James M. | Mar 9 2024 6:54 utc | 109
It is the second such article in several months. Learn to read bullshit. Possibly there could be some scammers operating trying to cash in, likely local to those countries. But Russia running scams to entice people around the world to join their military is bullshit.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 7:03 utc | 110
No shared border until 1957 Chinese invasion of Tibet. Mostly sea trade before. Opium trade via British India in XIX Century as well.
Posted by: AJ | Mar 9 2024 6:18 utc | 102
It is somewhat more complicated than that, which is why there are still disputes today. China has claimed that border region for centuries through the tribute system. Its borders at the time of the Opium War in 1840 incorporated Nepal (Hyer, Pragamtic Dragon: UBC Press, 2015) Also, Chinese dynasties did expand into India, but never unified the subcontinent.
Posted by: James M. | Mar 9 2024 7:13 utc | 111
It is the second such article in several months. Learn to read bullshit. Possibly there could be some scammers operating trying to cash in, likely local to those countries. But Russia running scams to entice people around the world to join their military is bullshit.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 7:03 utc | 110
There are scammers everywhere in the world. I get emails from Nigerian princes, Japanese lawyers, American companies, whatever. Russia isn’t immune to that.
Do you think it is plausible that some members of the Russian military and/or government are corrupt? I think so, every country has corruption. Do you think it plausible that some of these corrupt officials are running this scam, along with/or recruited by organized crime? I think that as well.
Maybe some individual bribed other individuals to get out of military duty, and his replacement was an Indian. That’s more reasonable than “Oh Western propaganda” every time you see a news item. Think things through.
Posted by: James M. | Mar 9 2024 7:23 utc | 112
@shadowbanned #105
…there must be a coup in the Kremlin immediately and he must be replaced by someone who will reestablish deterrence.’
Just a little reminder … in case you have a spot of memory loss … a little quiz
Who has re-established RF sovereignty since the Chicago boys and gals had their grasping claws around the testicles of the Russian economy and its Citizenry a quarter century or so ago?
A: Ronald Regan
B: Charlie Chaplin
C: Vladimir Putin
D: Catherine the Great
D:
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 9 2024 7:24 utc | 113
James M.
https://amolak.in/web/sino-indian-border-the-way-forward-by-j-thomas/
The other area is the high plateau, I forget its name. There are two British lines, one north, one south. One is named the Johnson line. They are in wikipedia. This is the area of the Galwin valley incident, where the Indian side crossed the agreed line of control. Modi, the cunning rat he is, waited to see if US would back India militarily against or just with words before winding it down.
But from your comments you display a total lack of knowledge on anything China or India related.
Until you do some actual research, it is a total waste of time responding to you any further.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 7:26 utc | 114
@KMRIA | Mar 8 2024 20:30 utc | 30
Always welcome to the Emerald Isle.
Let’s stay in touch on the blog.
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 9 2024 7:30 utc | 115
What the Brits are doing have been doing and continue to do more transparently all the time are acts of war.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 6:26 utc | 104
No, mate. You’re wrong. Either a war must be signalled verbally, via its parliament PLUS its President/PM, or through an act of war by one military force against another ***from within its own sovereign territory to the others sovereign territory***. No Western country has legally, formally declared war upon Russia nor fired anything from Britain or Poland or Germany or Romania *into* Russia. Clear and simple. Nor has Russia actually declared war upon Ukraine. Therefore Russia is not at war with any of Ukraine’s allies nor they with Russia.
This is where YOU need to take YOUR own interpretations to the Duma and argue with them not me. Of course we all know this is a massive proxy war, a clandestine, a Claytons war. Just like Syria — it’s clearly a big fucking 8 sided war. But is Israel at war with Russia with Turkey with US with Syria with Iran. No. There’re all happily killing their enemies and tiptoeing around allegiences. But noooo, “nobody is at war round here. They are just operations”. Lol.
That’s the new way, fighting OUTSIDE the conventions of war. And that’s why they are called stupid euphemisms like “Operation Freedom Wank”. Did you know the US was never “at war” with Afghanistan. Same thing. 20 fucking years “not at war”. Similar to Nam. Australia was never at war with Vietnam, despite that being the theatre. Australia was at war with “the evil commies marauding southwards” to threaten our righteous “democracies. Australians — you my valourous friend — were equivalent to a Frenchman defending Odessa. Does that justify a 1972 Nixon-upon-Hanoi-style levelling of Paris???.
But Peter, it’s not my problem nor yours. It’s Putin’s right to exercise *his* judgement on where to cross his own and his Duma’s lines as to what constitutes war. Can you imagine Rushi Sunak address the British people — “We are now at war with Russia”. That would be his right if Russia shot a RN ship in the North Sea. Up until that point it is not war. It’s just helping out some friends. Yes, lies, lies, lies.
Look Pete, I agree 100% with you. It’s fucked. And I too would love to see Britain get smashed in the face for their slimy duplicitousness. But Putin can’t, he just can’t, or he’ll deepen an SMO into a war which sucks even more roubles and patriots. He’ll just plod on to win one day. Russian may end up a little bloodied, but certainly not buried, which is his primary goal, is it not? But the west will be humiliated and humbled and defeated far far more, and then it will leave Russia alone.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 9 2024 7:34 utc | 116
There won’t be such a tipping point if the ammunition factories and the huge ammo depots that were thought to be safe deep in the Russian rear are blown up one by one while Putin is sitting on his hands.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 6:35 utc | 106
There are thousands of ammo dumps. One by one wont do anything. There are hundreds of thousands of other targets, and the drone attacks are attacks of opportunity, not any kind of coherent strategy.
Look at the map of the strikes, and the strength, and tell me you can tell what the actual strategy is, oil in the Donbass? Ammo Dumps in the rear? Drone workshops? Civilians in Bolgogorad?
You can not, because it is clear all ukraine is doing is looking for weak spots where they can hit, without an actual coherent strategy.
The nest you can argue they are doing is trying to keep Russian AD spread apart and occupied, but their clearly os no main target or strategy. If there was, they would be conserving drone and missile stocks for massive swarm attacks on ammo dumps, or fuel depots, but on a certain focused “logistical weakspot” that could help turn the tide on the front in a certain area, and not just hodge-podge all over the map and on whatever they think they can slip some through with.
ALL there rear hits have not made ONE IOTA OF DIFFERENCE on the front, EXCEPT to keep AD spread and less concentrated at the front.
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 9 2024 7:39 utc | 117
One moment sb will advocate that Russia nukes everything, the next he will display a humanist slant, and might even support Putin’s strategy in Ukraine. Shadowbastard is entirely too variable to take seriously.
Posted by: gT | Mar 9 2024 6:45 utc | 108
Maybe, just maybe, he’s on the turn … after absorbing so much challenge to his worldview. Lol. Lol.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 9 2024 7:40 utc | 118
Jake Blanchard | Mar 9 2024 6:20 utc | 103
Best comment I have seen for a while.
Posted by: Tim | Mar 9 2024 7:41 utc | 119
But from your comments you display a total lack of knowledge on anything China or India related.
Until you do some actual research, it is a total waste of time responding to you any further.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 7:26 utc | 114
I don’t use wikipedia, that’s for sure. As for not doing “actual research” my Phd, journal articles, and book with Routledge would beg to differ. I know more than you do on this subject, period. You’ve lost this argument so now you want to run away. Fine, I don’t care. One of us does publish real research on this topic the other one uses wikipeida links and rants and raves to strangers about conspiracies. I spend too much time here as it is, so I’ll leave you with your delusions.
Posted by: James M. | Mar 9 2024 7:41 utc | 120
UWDude | Mar 9 2024 7:39 utc | 117A post, perhaps on the lllast thread said it all about shadowspammer. ‘A drone had collapsed the roof of a blast furnace’.
Bloody clown. A blast furnace does not have a roof.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 7:43 utc | 121
Russia has given Germany an ultimatum and wants an explanation why the Luftwaffe wanted to attack the Russian Federation with nuclear missiles! Berlin has until Monday! The German Embassy in Moscow received a war demarche! In response to the wiretapping revelations, Victoria Nuland was fired as US Deputy Secretary of State!
According to German media, German ambassador Alexander Lambsdorff in Moscow received a military demarche on Monday with an ultimatum that he demands from Germany, a defeated World War II power, an explanation of the hostile act of planning a war strike with Taurus missiles against Russian territory, namely missiles that are capable of nuclear deployment.
The demarche demands Berlin’s response by 12 noon on March 11, 2024. The German channel Compact TV [2] informed about it. The Russian State Duma will meet on Monday and consider the retaliation and response to the attempt of the German Luftwaffe to attack Russian territory, and at this moment it is no longer about the Crimean bridge, but about the suspicion that Berlin wanted to launch a military strike against the Russian Federation and disguise it under the colors of Ukrainian Army.
In addition, it turned out that GRU did not disclose everything last week, and generals were talking about something else, apparently about directing attacks on Russian airfields deep in the Russian interior. Germany appears to have committed an act of war, and therefore all Western embassies in Russia have issued warnings of possible attacks in Moscow, destabilization in Russia, and for people not to travel to Russia.
In response to this crisis, US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland was removed from her position, which according to American journalists was fired for incompetence and failure to ensure the communication security of the German generals, as the German generals were caught with dirty hands wanting to shoot and drive from Germany’s missiles against targets in Russia. The war démarche handed to the German ambassador in Moscow on Monday raised fears in the Pentagon that Russia was not bluffing and led to the withdrawal of Victoria Nuland.
It was apparently her who was behind Taurus delivery plan behind Olaf Scholz’s back, and missiles were to be controlled from Germany from the Taurus missile manufacturer’s production center in Schrobenhausen. Germany thus attempted an act of war against Russia, planning not only strikes on the bridge in Crimea, but also deep into the Russian interior. And these missiles would be guided to the targets via the German Luftwaffe satellite directly from Schrobenhausen. The Ukrainians would not actually control anything, they would only physically launch the missile from the territory of Ukraine, but its control would then be taken over directly from Germany by the Luftwaffe. And that is an act of war!
Russian State Duma seems to be concerned that Olaf Scholz has lost control of German armed forces, and they are not controlled by German government, but by American Deep State and people like Victoria Nuland. And if German government does not control the German armed forces, Germany becomes a dangerous country for Russia and its security. The demarche of war and the ultimatum given by Berlin until 12 noon on March 11 shows how explosive the situation is.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/03/since-it-is-8th-of-march-friday.html#comment-6409324198
Posted by: chop | Mar 9 2024 7:50 utc | 122
US warship attacked off Yemen with 37 drones – only 15 were downed by AD. If so then it means there’s a high probability US warship has suffered multiple drone hits.
https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1766370802893750621
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 8:00 utc | 123
The West is now going to start terror attacs via drone swarms. Russia cannot retaliate because they want to avoid war with NATO at any cost.
By not reataliating in the earlier stages of this war, by being unprepared, Russia has endangered herself and the world.
Putin still hopes for some begotiated solution. He still doesnt understand the wesrern mind. By being moderate you only make those psychopaths more agressive.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 9 2024 8:09 utc | 124
unimperator | Mar 9 2024 8:00 utc | 123
Interesting. Seems to be a bit happening. In the Palestinian thread somebody post about a meeting with various Palestinians factions in Moscow. The post above yours by Chop. Not sure what is in that, as going to the comment at Martyanov’s blog, it is linked to a Czech media source.
I also saw a short bit of video where both a French officer and British officer involved in the current provocation exercise on Russia’s border were asked if they were willing to attack Russia if ordered. Both said they were.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 8:17 utc | 125
ref. 96 and 99, James is closer to reality. Us southerners have long memories, and 5 centuries of colonial plundering and murder are not easily forgotten or forgiven. Modhi clearly is playing both sides for profit, but in the long run India is rather unlikely to join the colonial western lobby. BRICS and global south is where the future lies. 85% plus of global pop., bulk of future economic growth, and freedom from gunboat diplomacy of NATO (thanks to Russia). Yes, China-India relations will have rocky patches, but much easier to manage than the splits in western alliance, NATO, EU etc.
Posted by: Global southerner | Mar 9 2024 8:21 utc | 126
Posted by: Constantine | Mar 9 2024 5:27 utc | 90
“A bit odd that Bhadrakumar has suggested that Nuland was actually pushing for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements.”
—
On it’s face maybe, but my immediate thought was, if actually true (who knows), it was only to remove a good pretext for RU to act before she\nato desired, and in mean time get unfettered access for her boys to move right up to that part of the border.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 5:46 utc | 94
hmm. I was kinda thinking the opposite, that the shallower det depth produced the larger surface waves based on the small tests, blast and vapor hit the floor cratering, spread out and kinda bouncing to a degree. But idk know, it’s likely wrong for me to extrapolate to much from 30kt when we’re talking ridiculous orders of magnitude larger with hypothetical 50mt+ and results may not be liner even if principles are similar. That said, full throttle 100+ odd knots, a few zigs and zags, if real, nothings likely to intercept it in time (that we know of anyway) as sb mentioned, dash into where ever goes boom and forget about the whole area, waves or no waves at that sort of hypothetical tonnage.
Posted by: knighthawk | Mar 9 2024 8:25 utc | 127
Yemeni statement. Apparently a US cargo ship, and not one, but several destroyers have been targeted. The operation is regarded successful. There could be multiple destroyers struck.
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1766378863590805962/photo/1
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 8:26 utc | 128
Global southerner | Mar 9 2024 8:21 utc | 126
So that is why India stopped the BRICS/multi-polar international trade currency?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 8:29 utc | 129
knighthawk | Mar 9 2024 8:25 utc | 127
Something like my thoughts for a shallow detonation.
But to drive inland, rather than just some extra high curling wave type thing, a large mass of water behind it would be required.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 8:37 utc | 130
Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 8:29 utc | 129
Western propaganda mainly, to stress Indian objections. Current trend of de-dolarisation is quite fast, due to bilateral currency swapping. Some tech. issues to be resolved before BRICS trade currency launch. When time is on your side why rush. Just like SMO. Global S. has long view, unlike westerners looking for next headlines. Patience amigo!
Posted by: Global southerner | Mar 9 2024 8:38 utc | 131
So that is why India stopped the BRICS/multi-polar international trade currency?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 8:29 utc | 129
India hasn’t closed the door on it. They’re still studying the issue, which you’d know if you did research on the subject. But “stopping” a BRICS “currency” isn’t indicative of India joining the “anti-China west.” India has a trade deficit its trying to narrow by using its own currency.
Posted by: James M. | Mar 9 2024 8:41 utc | 132
Global southerner | Mar 9 2024 8:38 utc | 131
I’m talking about international trade currency which was a Russian initiative and much simpler for international trade than trading in national currencies. India shot itself in the foot with that one as many are using the Chinese RMB instead. Some using the ruble. Few if any using the rupee.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 8:44 utc | 133
Posted by: chop | Mar 9 2024 7:50 utc | 122
“In addition, it turned out that GRU did not disclose everything last week, and generals were talking about something else
Posted by: knighthawk | Mar 9 2024 8:45 utc | 134
In Britain, Zelensky was accused of disclosing a secret base for foreigners in Odessa
During his visit to Odessa, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky revealed the location of a secret base in the port area of the city, where unmanned boats were being prepared for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This was stated by British analyst Alexander Markouris.
📝 “The Russians were tracking his movements. Thus, they found out the coordinates of the base and then struck,” said Alexander Markouris. His words are quoted by the PolitNavigator publication.
Earlier it was reported that Zelensky arrived in Odessa on March 6 to meet with a delegation from Greece. On the same day, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces workshop where unmanned boats were being prepared for operation. – Ostashko reports
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1766375576984502463
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 8:47 utc | 135
Posted by: Aleholio | Mar 8 2024 18:52 utc | 12
Friend really, attempt to get a grip on reality. It shouldn’t be too hard to understand the glaringly obvious truth that NATO is getting its buttocks spanked by Russia good and proper in Ukraine. Russia is not finished, as you suggest. PRC is not finished either. The Ukraine is about to collapse. Could be s matter of months. The USA and Europe are not far behind either.
Peace and Love etc etc to you too.
Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Mar 9 2024 8:50 utc | 136
unimperator | Mar 9 2024 8:47 utc | 135
I assume Markouris is Mercouris of the Duran?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 8:53 utc | 137
Posted by: chop | Mar 9 2024 7:50 utc | 122
At first I was very excited by this news. But after a bit of a read-around I find it is actually 5 day old news, and quite a bit over-dramatised beyond the facts, and to which the Germans have already flippantly responded 2 days ago — bah humbug. So no, it’s not the harbinger of strikes upon Germany. Damn!
But the formal Russian warning may have well buried Taurus shipments for good, along with putting all the western hawks on notice that Moscow will not tolerate much if any more of this proxy weaponising shit. We can but hope.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 9 2024 8:53 utc | 138
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 8:00 utc | 123
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 8:26 utc | 128
Wondering when they would start with the swarms\saturation attempts, instead of far more limited likely to fail attempts (I use fail loosely because every couple sm2,sm6 etc wasted is a mini-win for them imho). Guess they were actually trying for hits this time instead of just learning and mag draining operation.
Wonder if they wanted to get some shots in before and supposed temp or otherwise cease-fire?
Posted by: knighthawk | Mar 9 2024 8:59 utc | 139
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 9 2024 8:47 utc | 135
Several day old news as well, but Mercouris isn’t the source for that he was repeating others too. But I don’t recall him saying it was Ze’s fault for them knowing the “secret” location, he was mentioning how they were tracking him and waited till he left the facility they were planning to strike to actually launch the iskander(s) at it, much to the dismay of a few on the ru side. Medvedev was trolling\memeing about it yesterday.
Posted by: knighthawk | Mar 9 2024 9:14 utc | 140
This is all becoming so very predictable. Former spook Ray McGovern:
“My best guess here is that the CIA and the Defense Department and the NSA got this message around saying, ‘look, Victoria’s got her own agenda here,’” said the analyst. “‘The president doesn’t really want to strike these ammo depots in Russia or knock down the [Crimean] Bridge. So we got to rein her in, I guess it’s time for her to go to early retirement.’”
Translation: one of these days the USA is going to strike ammo depots deep in Russia, or maybe we’ll knock down the Crimean bridge, or both. But it’s not us, nooo. (wink, wink)
For plausible deniability, typically gimmicks from Soviet times are added. The Engels air base was attacked using a (Raytheon?) modified Soviet Tu-141 drone. British maritime drones get detonators from Russian FAB-500 aerial bombs. So I wonder what the gimmick is going to be this time. Maybe they’ll mount a samovar on top of the missile, to make it look as if it’s Ukrainian?
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 9 2024 9:23 utc | 141
Crimean Bridge blocked apparently. It seems the Brits and Euro’s are definitely planning something for the very near future.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 9:39 utc | 142
@Posted by: Ed | Mar 9 2024 3:47 utc | 83
1. NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine. But Vicky Nuland should be peeing in her panties with excitement if that were true.
2. Biden is considering a nuclear attack on Russia. Not likely, though again Nuland might buy into such a plan, the neo-con that she is.
3. After the election, or soon enough before the election that it will be forgotten, Biden will force Zelensky (or remove Zelensky) to negotiate a peace deal or stalemate with Russia.
What say you?
4. Tactical move so she can take the same position in the next (Trump’s) administration.
Posted by: 2+2=5 | Mar 9 2024 9:50 utc | 143
From the latest Dima update, there shall be no negotiations.
“France is preparing for full scale war”
France is a nuclear power. It would be a very convenient move for the US to attack Russia from France.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 9 2024 9:51 utc | 144
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 3:45 utc | 82
Poseidon against stationary targets is far more likely, coastal attack where geologic and hydrodynamic factors are advantageous.
Attack sub role would require the device to emulate the decision making process of an expert crew in tracking enemy ships / subs, maybe doable … maybe not … plus the increased risk of getting confused, captured, disassembled.
Onboard nuclear material reduces eco self-destruct options, maybe a non-explosive meltdown to “slag” the internals and to hell with the leakage.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 9 2024 9:55 utc | 145
Posted by: vargas | Mar 9 2024 9:51 utc | 145
France is a nuclear dwarf.
Probably nor USA nor RF have first strike capability, let alone France or UK, even combined.
NATO without US and possibly even with US has no chance at all to go full conventional war with RF.
Going nuclear without US grants destruction of France, UK and possibly the rest of Europe.
Going nuclear with US will probably lead to worldwide destruction.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 9 2024 10:17 utc | 146
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Frontline #Summary for the Morning of 9 March 2024; pub. 10:02⚡️
🔹On the #Zaporozhye Front, there is fighting in the village of #Rabotino. The AFU is not giving up attempts to dislodge Russian troops from the village, but they ⚠️cannot succeed. The frontline has not changed significantly. (Fig. 1)
🔹The #Donetsk Front continues to be the scene of the most active fighting. The RF Armed Forces continue to ⚠️ break through #Novomikhaylovka.
▪️ In the area of the #Pobeda settlement, there are oncoming battles.
▪️ In #Georgiyevka, the RF Armed Forces are trying to build on yesterday’s success on both sides of the reservoir.
▪️ In #Krasnogorovka, with the support of long range weapons, the RF Armed Forces continue to ⚠️advance from the southern side of the town.
▪️ In the area of #Nevelskoye there are oncoming battles. As a result of assault operations, the Russian forces managed to ⚠️advance from the northeastern side of the #Pervomayskoye settlement.
▪️ In #Orlovka, the AFU put up ⚠️fierce resistance, clinging to the western outskirts located on the heights, which allows them to actively fire at the Russian troops from long range weapons. Ukrainian reserves also continue to arrive there.
▪️ The situation is similar in the area of #Semyonovka and #Berdychi, where fierce oncoming battles continue. (Fig. 2)
🔹In the #Bakhmut Direction, the RF Armed Forces, supported by long range weapons, continue their assault operations in the area of #Kleshcheyevka and #Bogdanovka. The frontline ⚠️remains unchanged. In #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye), the AFU is trying to counterattack. ⚠️No result. (Fig.3)
🔹On the #Lugansk Front, Russian troops, supported by artillery, continue their assault operations near #Yampolovka and #Terny. At the latter settlement there are ⚠️minor successes of the RF Armed Forces, but the line of contact has ⚠️not changed significantly. (Fig. 4)
Posted by: Down South | Mar 9 2024 10:21 utc | 147
📋🇷🇺🇺🇦🇪🇺 On the Prospects for the Participation of #EU Countries in the War in #Ukraine📍
🔹The issue of open participation of soldiers of European #NATO countries in the war on the territory of #Ukraine is being actively pushed by the anti-people governments of the #EU countries at the highest level, despite rather poorly organised opposition and protests. #France and #Germany are the actual driving forces in this situation, although high officials are trying to accustom their population to this gradually.
🔹Against the background of the build-up of #NATO troops and infrastructure on the eastern flank and multinational exercises involving tens of thousands of soldiers, the construction of a military network is intensifying factories and supply chains. At the same time, only the #US and #England are interested in such actions, and military-industrial corporations are the beneficiaries.
🔹But at present, the same #France, led by the gerontophile Macron, has in its Army about 200 thousand people and just over 200 Leclerc tanks (for comparison: for the “counter-offensive” of the AFU last year, #NATO supplied a total of about 500 units of armored vehicles, in mostly Soviet). That is, for now a separate army
🔹Although Macron has already been taking measures to increase the combat readiness of the French army for a couple of years. Yesterday, data leaked online about the revision of the military doctrine of Paris to confront an enemy “who can compare with its army in firepower”
🔹The unthinkability of war against #Russia or #Germany is eliminated…by lack of education. 80 percent of young Germans are convinced that the #US won World War II, forgetting who took #Berlin. Hence the relatively “calm” public reaction to the leaked negotiations between German officers about the supply of up to 100 Taurus missiles, including for the destruction of the Crimean Bridge.
🔹However, #NATO countries are objectively not ready for a protracted war with #Russia on the territory of #Ukraine, even if we exclude the use of nuclear weapons by Moscow. Objectively, there will not be enough armored vehicles and artillery ammunition. Although our principles in the field of nuclear deterrence allow us to strike when “the enemy’s impact on critically important state or military facilities, the failure of which would lead to the disruption of the response actions of nuclear forces’ or ‘aggression against Russia using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.’
🔹Against the backdrop of the #EU countries actually preparing for open participation in the conflict in #Ukraine, we can say that Russia has 1.5-2 years before “closing the Ukrainian issue.” The production of weapons and military equipment in the #West has not yet been launched. Because the war benefits Western arms corporations and it is unlikely that any of them will want to reforge their swords into something else, cheaper.
🔹Of course, there is a well-founded point of view that the globalists intend to drive the peoples of #Europe into a frenzy in the face of global meat grinder and Armageddon, and then sharply offer a way out in the form of the loss of a significant part of freedoms in exchange for peace.
⭐️ But so far all the plans of politicians, their agreements and joint statements always end in a bloodbath.
Posted by: Down South | Mar 9 2024 10:22 utc | 148
The next round of public and behind-the-scenes bidding has begun on the Ukrainian case – source.
Macron’s statements should be classified as public auctions. The moment about Kyiv and Odessa is especially interesting. This means that the Russians continue to prepare for the Odessa operation.
The second point is that the situation at the front is heading towards a “catastrophe”, which can trigger a domino effect if all problems cannot be quickly solved at once (shortage of money, ammunition, air defense, artillery, heavy equipment, human resources, fortifications, aviation, infrastructure problems and, strangely enough, the fuel crisis, which can be solved situationally).
The Poles and others also got involved indirectly, saying that perhaps the stakes would be raised in some creative way, without directly entering the war (nobody wants World War III).
Against this background, Zelensky’s trips to the UAE and Turkey, where the peace case was discussed and, of course, bidding is already underway for many cases and even territories/zones of influence, look characteristic.
Posted by: Down South | Mar 9 2024 10:25 utc | 149
Our source reports that, at least situationally, Zelensky and Ermak defeated ex-commander-in-chief Zaluzhny, “making” him unfit to serve in health, forcing him to leave the army. But in the long term they have created a global competitor for themselves.
The image of the “iron general” remains behind him, which means he will maintain his rating against the backdrop of the military failures of Syrsky-Ermak-Zelensky.
The Britons will most likely take him under their wing, preparing him as a replacement for Zelensky in order to retain control over Ukraine.
Now Zaluzhny has been removed from Ukraine so that he does not prevent Zeh from fulfilling everything he promised to the “Western lobby.” Then Ze will simply be replaced by Za.
We are watching, but Ze has little time left to “steer.”
Posted by: Down South | Mar 9 2024 10:28 utc | 150
The unthinkability of war against #Russia or #Germany is eliminated…by lack of education. 80 percent of young Germans are convinced that the #US won World War II, forgetting who took #Berlin. Hence the relatively “calm” public reaction to the leaked negotiations
Down South | Mar 9 2024 10:22 utc | 149
These “two (dumb) majors” always have problems with logic. I don’t see any protests in Russia either. Do they suggest lack of education there? On the streets of Yemen there are more people than Vicky could attract with cookies in Moscow, and it’s not even for a problem inside their country. Oops. The reality is no one gives a sh.. about the smo.
4. Tactical move so she can take the same position in the next (Trump’s) administration.
Posted by: 2+2=5 | Mar 9 2024 9:50 utc | 144
That must be it, very soon we’ll see.
Posted by: rk | Mar 9 2024 10:34 utc | 151
Going nuclear with US will probably lead to worldwide destruction.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 9 2024 10:17 utc | 147
If the US can launch drones against the Kremlin, is Russia allowed to use drones against the White House?
Burevestnik wants to know.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 9 2024 10:50 utc | 152
In Taganrog.
The target of the raid was clearly the Beriev aircraft plant. This is where the BE-200 firefighting aircraft are made.
But the new A-50 (100), released a week ago, also appeared there, and that was what the news story was about (the Osintov crests found the hangar a couple of days later).
I would like to believe that by the time the story was published the plane was no longer there.
Yeah, and a fierce UAV was flying to Lipetsk, the Ukrainian equivalent of a bayraktar, but in the kamikaze version.
We have already written that large Ukrainian production facilities are being dragged into underground parking lots, hiding behind civilian infrastructure. You can’t make such a large drone in a garage.
Apparently, they have accumulated them and are now using them with all their might.
Unlike the PD-1 and the beaver, the fierce one can already carry a decent charge and cause significant damage.
In Taganrog, judging by the power of the explosions, they also worked.
If the production of these drones begins to flow, we risk seeing the end of the era of broken windows with charges of a couple of kg.
There is only one joy – the wingspan is 7 meters, clearly visible on the radar. (Ed: Not if it’s plastic)
The Defense Intelligence (DI) body of the British Ministry of Defense released a satellite image from Airbus, which captured an Iranian reconnaissance and strike UAV Mohajer-6 on the territory of the Crimean airfield, near the village of Saki.
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/31162
Updated jammer-proof receivers of the Comet modules were found in surviving Russian bomb correction kits.
The new type of “Comet” is equipped with a new 8-beam antenna system capable of simultaneously neutralizing seven sources of interference.
“Comets” are installed not only on aerial bombs with correction kits, but also on various drones, including the Geranium UAV.
If updated receivers appear on drones, this will also significantly increase their protection from Ukrainian electronic warfare systems.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 9 2024 11:10 utc | 153
Global southerner | Mar 9 2024 8:38 utc | 131
“I’m talking about international trade currency which was a Russian initiative and much simpler for international trade than trading in national currencies. India shot itself in the foot with that one as many are using the Chinese RMB instead. Some using the ruble. Few if any using the rupee.”
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 8:44 utc | 133
From what I understand the rupees are piling up in Russia as Russia is selling their oil to India for rupees. Here is a year old article
“NEW DELHI: India’s love for discounted Russia oil is widening its trade deficit ..(1)”
1.https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/indias-soaring-russian-oil-imports-render-rupee-trade-futile/97905753
(…) Macron’s statements should be classified as public auctions. The moment about Kyiv and Odessa is especially interesting. This means that the Russians continue to prepare for the Odessa operation.
Posted by: Down South | Mar 9 2024 10:25 utc | 150
Macron is just a pet barking around, trying to look as a credible figure with EU elections coming in June, and trying to avoid a humiliating defeat for his party against the national right and the far left (led by Bardella and Mélenchon).
Yesterday, french MoD Sébastien Lecornu adressed the MSM and declared that it is “out of question to send fighting troops on the ground in Ukraine”.
Translation for the dummies : don’t confuse elction campaign BS with reality. France ain’t gonna waste its tiny army in 8 days of combat capability against RF.
The US is already dumping Ukraine and Ze Cokehead. It is now an unbearable burden for the Democrats and a political tool against them for the Republicans.
The shitshow is left for the eurotards to clean, while pretending they didn’t see the whole affair was to destroy their own interests…
They are now in full narration control : they will not send fighting troops, but “peace keeping troops” (Blue Helmets alike BS), as far as possible of any front lines, and pretend they have saved the remnant western part of Ukraine from “evil Putin”, while in fact we all know that Russia isn’t interested in that part of the country. All they hope is that their population is gullible enough to believe that this utter defeat of all their true plans is indeed a “victory for Democracy”.
Then the curtain can fall on another wasted country, another bled out population left impoverished for decades and without any future.
Posted by: Pierrot | Mar 9 2024 11:39 utc | 155
just a few things happening in the so called “civilized western countries with values”:
Russian citizens will be deported from Latvia by force if they don’t leave voluntarily, the country’s migration chief has said
Finland has asked owners of cars with Russian license plates to leave the country by March 16 of this year in light of the ban on the entry and presence of vehicles registered in Russia in the country.
the “license plate” spiel going on in th eu is also just a hidden deportation act, nothing more, nothing less.
you can clearly see that the whole “west” with all its values and civilization and all the buzzwords that fascists like to use to deflect, is just doing another racists “cleansing” operation with russian people.
“kauft nicht beim juden” now on steroids.
and the people in the eu just go along with it. thats the worst and most depressing part of it.
if this shit would happen to any other people, then there would be calls and protests and whatnot. but since its only against the russians, its fine for the western value citizens.
the social programming in the west is truly amazing. credits where credit is due.
that aside, heres a little fun for today after i had a nice encounter with 2 policemen while working in my garden.
i was wearing a “z wie zorro” shirt (thats some japanese cartoon from the eighties or so, an old shirt i use wor work), and someone seems to had have issues with it having the letter z being so big on it on the front. well i got a visit of two policemen that wanted to “verify” that i am not using “Banned material”.
western values.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 9 2024 11:48 utc | 156
Russia could be invited to Ukraine-led peace talks
After two years of war, Zelensky now appears open to negotiating with Putin, though not on Moscow’s terms
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-russia-peace-talks/
Posted by: Apollyon | Mar 9 2024 11:56 utc | 157
canuck | Mar 9 2024 11:17 utc | 156
There is a lot of trade settled in national currencies but to do that, every country must negotiate an individual agreement with every other country. Russia has individual agreement with China India and no doubt others. Russia has also said it will accept payment in the Chinese RMB from others it does not have an agreement with. I believe a number of smaller countries had started using the Chinese currency for some trade. I think the RMB is also in IMF currency basket as trade currency.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 12:00 utc | 158
biochar @ 86
Interesting info and the asteroid is a good comparison.
Maybe the place to detonate Poseidon would be the Gulf of Mexico, ideally during hurricane landfall as multiplier. This would heve the potential to not only take out a large share of US oil platforms and refinery capacities as well as Houston and Chemical Alley. Most of Louisiana and a large swath of Texas would be permanently gone. The flood of refugees, the armed response to those and a few hits on bpoth coasts would send the USA into a death spiral.
Unfortunately it would also activate second strike capabilities, wrecking China and Russia, who in turn would destroy Europe too. Kiss a few billion bodies goodbye then. Poseidon may be mighty but it can not do much an SSBN can’t do as well.
As much as we all love some war porn and asserting our mental supremacy to the uninformed masses we can probably assume someone ran a serious model for first strike. There is a lot more escalation headroom before someone even would have to consider tac nukes. We’d rather see NATO troops extinguished for failure to achieve air superiority. Russia can safely kill those troops on Ukrainian soil, NATO is pretty constrained in its options already, chess works.
As to using nukes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EV-vU-HvlHI
Posted by: SOS | Mar 9 2024 12:02 utc | 159
One moment sb will advocate that Russia nukes everything, the next he will display a humanist slant, and might even support Putin’s strategy in Ukraine. Shadowbastard is entirely too variable to take seriously.
Posted by: gT | Mar 9 2024 6:45 utc | 108
The variability is a feature, not a bug. Shadowbinned is a paid for psyop and there are several contributors using the handle, to keep everyone busy. The aim is to mislead, obfuscate, sow division between regulars, distract rational discussion away from the topic at hand, etc.
It’s pro-trolling, best ignored.
Posted by: oldhand | Mar 9 2024 12:14 utc | 160
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 9 2024 12:00 utc | 160
You answered your own question here. Anyway India has its own economic interests to look after. It has nothing to do with the “anti China “ narrative. Yes, the Yuan is in the SDR but that doesn’t help India much in the short term.
Posted by: James M. | Mar 9 2024 12:19 utc | 161
@107 I don’t think any rational well-informed person can at this point (or for some time before) deny that Putin is a pussy. Even American military people know this. It’s well known within western policy making circles that Putin never escalates (which is why the SMO was itself so out of character for him and people look for conspiracy theories like an imminent Ukrainian nuclear weapon).
The question is not whether he is a pussy, the question is whether he can win his way or not. Take the hits (and Russia has taken a lot of hits since this started), keep your head down, don’t get distracted from your goals (to a galaxy level degree of not reacting to provocations), and grind grind grind, make efforts to force the other side into negotiations. The whole energy infrastructure strike thing (nights of the dead transformers) was 100% about coercing negotiations and nothing else. That’s why transformers were chosen, not the actual power plants. It was not about taking out the power, it was about convincing the Ukrainians to sit down.
Putin’s reaction to strikes on Russian military factories will be the same as his reaction to everything, after enough damage is done, he will try to improve defenses of the factories, move production if needed, do some slap-on-the-wrist retaliatory strikes inside Ukraine, and then I expect slog through with Russian production still growing. Big countries are really big, we can’t fathom how big they are from our daily experiences. It is not realistic for Ukraine or nato via Ukraine to significantly degrade Russian production. Ukraine still produces a ton of weapons domestically (likely much more than it did in 2021) despite Russia having expended literally thousands of missiles hitting targets inside the country
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 12:31 utc | 162
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 9 2024 10:50 utc | 154
Your comment doesn’t address my post.
By the way, actually if drones are used by US, it’s done under the umbrella of plausibility denialiby.
I was speaking by open war.
In this case, RF could attack US, probably not with shitty drones.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 9 2024 12:51 utc | 163
Chessmaster Z @ 164
Tell me you are American without telling me you are American.
The Chessmaster playing Tic Tac Toe or tit-for-tat.
What is this obsession with brinkmanship and driving every issue hard in spite of all evidence? Is this the famed rugged individualism or just a toxic trait?
How is “being a pussy” with all the associated toxic masculinity baggage a thing past schoolyardl age? Maybe we should start taking a hint from Frank Herberts books and start testing people with a Gom Jabbar?
To all those speculating around this, US has 300m population, EU has 500m, Russia 140m. Where is the benefit of crossing borders and risk triggering Article 5 when you can destroy military hardware inside Ukraine’s borders?
Why is Putin not making the same mistakes we would?
You entire post shows that Russia is well advised to treat the West as someone with psychological pathology. The Western democracies are infested with narcisssts, psychopaths and compulsive liars.
Posted by: SOS | Mar 9 2024 13:06 utc | 164
According to ZH the F35 is now certified to carry B61 nuclear freefall bombs.
With glide kits being a thing “EW scout” and “radar recon” flights of F35 just got a little more spicy.
Posted by: SOS | Mar 9 2024 13:24 utc | 165
The whole energy infrastructure strike thing (nights of the dead transformers) was 100% about coercing negotiations and nothing else. That’s why transformers were chosen, not the actual power plants. It was not about taking out the power, it was about convincing the Ukrainians to sit down.
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 12:31 utc | 164
So you believe the Russians should have disabled the entire Ukrainian electrical generation system and distribution grid?
If so what would you have done about Ukraines 4 nuclear power stations that rely on that electrical grid to run their cooling pumps that keep the coolant flowing in their reactor cores?
Please consider that it was the Russians who built these reactors as well as the rest of Ukraines power generation and distribution system. They know better than anyone what they can safely degrade in that system by military means without having a catastrophic nuclear incident that would dwarf Fukishima or Chernobyl.
Considerations like this is what separates real leaders and military men from even the most experienced “Call of Duty” players who offer their military / political expertise from the safety of their moms basement. You see when the war is in your computers memory you don’t have to worry about making the people you are trying to ‘liberate’ into irradiated refugees or having to fight a military campaign in the summer heat in full NBC gear.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 9 2024 13:28 utc | 166
Who is a spy for whom?
According to some of our btl luminaries here (oh see how they shine!😅)
There’s obviously a debretts directory that you can get which tells you and their contact details! All the Scarlett Pimpernels are helpfully listed there…
Who is a mockingbird now?
Oh just look up the CIA Factbook they are all listed there and which media and countries they work ..
Yes … yes … our spies are all on the books and we have their career earnings records and know exactly how much pension they are entitled to.
All spies everywhere and their work is obviously recorded for anyone to find out.
Who needs Smiley to sniff out the mole he should have just asked Moscow Centre for the payroll records of the Moles in the Circus.
Moronic sock puppet bs crap spreaders here think they can fool all of the people all of the time.
Here have a steak knife through the heart – in a finally admitted limited hangout the truth kernel of which has been known for decades.
“ Scappaticci: Report says Army’s top IRA spy cost more lives than he saved
Published
14 hours ago”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68510390
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-northern-ireland-68510319
Now – why does one suppose this is ‘officially’ coming out now? Even as it is still denied Officially, officially.
Yup double speak , even today – because it is to protect other even more heinous subterfuge by our unelected perma state and supposed independent political leadership who are not publicly acknowledged as being agents long recruited.
There were other Irish nationalists who were moles.
As there are currently many SNP who betrayed Scottish Nationalism- that hasn’t yet got to military actions by the independence seekers , yet, but as austerity strikes them, it will come.
Yes the senior stenographers , editors who work the propaganda multiplier in the Collective Western mass media via the direct daily effluence of the 3 news agencies, are perforce spies. They wouldn’t be in the job otherwise. They wouldn’t follow D Notices.
They’d not standby and not only fail to defend Assange daily by direct action , they wouldn’t actively work to bury him as they have done- including the Top Cat himself.
They wear their disguises, in a spectrum. Left to Right. But from Spiked to Fox and all stops between they are nothing better than the Stasi and Gestapo were.
Scum of the Fascist West that we live in as some lala land of ‘freedom’ . Fuck them.
I told you about George Galloway, Laura Keunssberg, most of the staff of the Guardian… it brings out the smoke spreaders immediately.
We have heard about the German journalist who spilt the beans and suffered a quick death and his book disappeared!
Many other journalists.
We know of the integrity initiative and its tangled web.
So fucking yes the mass media and alternative media is full of spies more so than what Elsberg revealed in the 70’s ! By orders of magnitude. And yes these boards are infested by their sock puppet’s practicing narrative’s and rapid rebuttal scripts. This site escapes wanton destruction because of its limited size.
If it was as big as say Russell Brand got – they’d have sent a shape shifter doppelgänger to steal his show. Like Tucker did when he appeared and left Russell soon charged with slurs and booted off YouTube!
Instead we get a never ending name shifting agit prop and limited hangout scripts here – trying to protect their latest greatest super weapon to date – the kid super spy Joe 90, with his dad in the ‘company’ , who has now been promoted via his hothousing in the Mordork stable to the Voice of Treason and Top Cat – the indisputable leader of the gang! A teat for our dumb propaganda sucking addiction.
Not buying. Fuck off. Any more dumb dog shitters?
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 9 2024 13:32 utc | 167
POSSIBLE WAYS FORWARD FOR RUSSIA IN THE FACE OF CONTINUING WESTERN AGGRESSION
First posted 9th March 2022.
The first thing I would advise the Russian Federation to do would be to cut the supply of natural gas to Europe completely for a period of two weeks as a preliminary warning to western powers that this will become permanent and all supply diverted to China if their attitude does not change in the meantime.
This should deliver a salutary lesson in realpolitik to North America’s puppet states in Europe. If you wish to play hard ball, so be it. The issue we are fighting for in Ukraine is of supreme importance to us well above any other considerations, and certainly above any economic factors you clearly wish to impose upon us.
Ukraine WILL become a normal state again, ready to negotiate peace and liberty for its citizens, held under the thumb of both political and militaristic elites since the coup of 2014 in Kiev. Ukraine will see her fortunes rise to the degree that these elements are neutralised and eliminated. Russia has lost all patience with the untenable and unacceptable status quo held in place by western allies of Ukraine intent on replacing the president and system of governance of Russia thought the weaponized extremist elites within Ukraine.
Cutting the flow of vital natural gas to Europe will focus the minds of the elites there greatly as the effects of this termination hit their industrial output and supply to their populations. Clearly they need their arms twisted to treat the issues affecting Russian-Western seriously.
Secondly, a formal defensive alliance should be agreed and signed with China, both an economic, technological and military alliance that safeguards both nations and possibly others such as Iran and Syria from NATO attacks and the obvious aggressive intent shown by the western powers. An attack of any kind on one shall then be regarded as an attack on all and a coordinated response that delivers a proportionate effect in the West will be quickly agreed and applied.
As with the first option above this should have the effect of focusing the minds of the western power elites disabusing them of the idea that they can act as they please toward the Eurasian alliance with impunity.
Technologies to be transferred and upgraded across all alliance nations with strengths in one transferred to others while any weaknesses found or gaps in defensive strategies of infrastructure upgraded as soon as humanly possible to produce compatibility of use at the same standard across all alliance members.
In the economic field local currencies to be used throughout with the elimination of dollar transactions just as soon as possible without overly disrupting present arrangements. A movement to standardise credit arrangements across all allied nations to be rolled out with the Chinese Alipay and Russian Mir systems predominant. The massive resources accrued by the Chinese state to be used in greater part than now across alliance partners while maintaining support for the inroads to countries and cultures outwith the alliance, specifically in Africa and the near and far east.
Military technologies to be shared at all levels and software made compatible across all presently diverse systems to enable multi-partner use with ease. Multi-disciplinary projects to be initiated whereby all future military systems are made compatible in this multi-partner format of compatibility.
Ever-closer coordination across all Eurasian allies in the face of western aggression presenting a solidly uniform and fully robust face toward it with no possibility of the western powers dividing one ally from the others but maintaining a high level of trusted communication across all partners at all times.
Russia to remove all connections to western internet services in the medium term replacing them with its own in-house system. In the short term maintaining a ban upon the primary social media platforms that now exist in the West and steadily eliminating others as they are found to be problematic.
Russia to use the Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) never returning to the West’s SWIFT system of financial transaction messaging. In the meantime trades to be carried out if necessary by the older methods preceding the advent of SWIFT.
Russia to further develop its economic defence systems by innovations ending reliance on western tools, products and services. This will take time to effect to its fullest extent but much progress, awareness, lessons and expertise have been gained since 2014 to mitigate the effect of western sanctions and to find new markets in the east.
Russia to become ever more self-reliant and self-sufficient across a range of products and services and maximum use to be made of access to partner expertise, services and products.
Russia to protect its culture and traditions in ever more effective ways leading to a closer approximation of the Chinese system of hybrid economic-political control systems whereby central control becomes the rule rather than the exception and thus mitigating against the possibility of infiltration of alien western political and social concepts.
My most radical suggestion would be for the United Russia party to work in ever closer relation to the Communist Party of Russia, the official opposition party within the Russian Federation. In so doing a more robust net of protection could be created against the infiltration of subversive western concepts and CIA operatives within the nation. This would have the main function however of allowing movement toward the Chinese model mentioned above. Working together against the common western enemy would ensure that no energy would be expended on divisive political goals stemming from partisan ambitions within both parties.
These are the main areas I would suggest that Russia should contemplate in seeking to immunise itself from future western attacks. By creating a solid bulwark of partnerships that delivers a robust wall of defence against the West behind which relationships across all major areas of mutual interest, economic benefit for populations and defensive military strength combine to ensure all western plans against them be thwarted.
https://aearnur.substack.com/p/possible-ways-forward-for-russia-a68
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Mar 9 2024 13:40 utc | 168
Geroman Forwarded from Earlier then others. Almost.
❗️London is ready to help Berlin in solving problems that impede the supply of Taurus missiles to Kyiv, or consider the option of purchasing German missiles and transferring British Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said in an interview with the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.
407views geroman 07:58″
https://t.me/geromanat/22308
Haha So the ole well you will give them, so you can give them to us along with the data just like your audio call said update, and then we’ll take care of giving them to ukraine and putting them on the su-24’s, or since we’re running low on SS’s we’ll send more of those if can give us yours. Watch Olaf do just that, soon as he says no to something it’s only a matter of days or weeks till he always folds on it…thus far anyway.
Posted by: knighthawk | Mar 9 2024 13:40 utc | 169
With glide kits being a thing “EW scout” and “radar recon” flights of F35 just got a little more spicy.
Posted by: SOS | Mar 9 2024 13:24 utc | 167
What does this actually achieve from even a tactical standpoint. F-35 has a combat radius of 1000 km … Kinzhal (among a host of Russian missiles) has a range of 2000 km. lets say an F-35 destroys Russian air defences … Russia can nuke the air bases they flew from without ever getting within range or US fighters or SAMs. What would be the point of such an attack?
Russian strategic missiles have a range of 11,000km and are road mobile so well out of range of F-35’s.
So what you got in a nuclear armed F-35 is a weapon that can start a nuclear war but can’t finish one. No one wins a nuclear war between superpowers.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 9 2024 13:45 utc | 170
@168 lol this is a first, Russia couldn’t have taken out the Ukrainian grid without creating new Chernobyls. I don’t know, maybe the Ukrainians could have shut down the reactors before they melted down? Taking out the entire grid would have not happened like flipping a light switch, there were a lot of non-nuclear power plants that could have been hit, and higher capacity transformers which were largely untouched. It was a coercive campaign not fundamentally different than the original SMO.
A few months in, I heard the opening stages of the SMO described as a psychological operation that used the military as a prop. The whole point was to collapse the Ukrainian government suddenly, not take a giant country of 40 million people with a small expeditionary force. The transformer campaign was similar, the point wasn’t to take out the power, it was to force negotiations to end the war. I have a feeling that the Odessa strike when Zelenskyy and the Greek PM were there were in a similar vein. It was a warning, a prod, to Europe. If you look at Putin’s actions this way, they make a lot more sense
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 13:55 utc | 171
a giant country of 40 million people
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 13:55 utc | 173
Giant? 40 million?
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 9 2024 14:10 utc | 172
@ Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 13:55 utc | 173
The WARNING was to the Greeks. Duh.
Gawd you socks can’t even get matching pairs and need L and R to decide which feet to put them on! Kindly put one in it for a few pages eh?
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 9 2024 14:17 utc | 173
SOS@166….Western democracies are infested with narcissists, psychopaths and compulsive liars….and they have a nuclear arsenal…..hmm, what might wrong there?
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 9 2024 14:24 utc | 174
@Chessmaster Z
Up to now it is clear that Ukrainian society as a whole is ready to fight and to die.
There is no real discontent there just seldom incidents on individual level.
Their western dream is far more important for these people then their lives.
Therefore, Russia has only one choice. A total destruction of Ukraine or defeat.
I suspect, Putin would rather chose a Russian defeat.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 9 2024 14:32 utc | 175
The Greek PM was a convenient figure, from an unimportant country (it would have been a much bigger deal if it was the French president or British PM there) but still a country part of nato and of the broader western coalition.
And yes, a country of 40 million people the size of France is an unrealistically large country to try to take with the force Putin sent over at the start. The Russians were not complete retards, they knew this too
Posted by: Chess | Mar 9 2024 14:39 utc | 176
Comment by Mario | March 09, 2024 at 12:51 | Permalink
Nuclear war is unlikely.
The American way of war is bombing from 30,000 feet until the other guy gives up. Shooting at guys who can’t shoot back. That’s not an option with Russia.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 9 2024 14:43 utc | 177
Scum of the Fascist West that we live in as some lala land of ‘freedom’ . Fuck them.
I told you about George Galloway, Laura Keunssberg, most of the staff of the Guardian… it brings out the smoke spreaders immediately.
We have heard about the German journalist who spilt the beans and suffered a quick death and his book disappeared!
Many other journalists.
We know of the integrity initiative and its tangled web.
So fucking yes the mass media and alternative media is full of spies more so than what Elsberg revealed in the 70’s ! By orders of magnitude. And yes these boards are infested by their sock puppet’s practicing narrative’s and rapid rebuttal scripts. This site escapes wanton destruction because of its limited size.
“If it was as big as say Russell Brand got – they’d have sent a shape shifter doppelgänger to steal his show. Like Tucker did when he appeared and left Russell soon charged with slurs and booted off YouTube!
Instead we get a never ending name shifting agit prop and limited hangout scripts here – trying to protect their latest greatest super weapon to date – the kid super spy Joe 90, with his dad in the ‘company’ , who has now been promoted via his hothousing in the Mordork stable to the Voice of Treason and Top Cat – the indisputable leader of the gang! A teat for our dumb propaganda sucking addiction.
Not buying. Fuck off. Any more dumb dog shitters?”
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 9 2024 13:32 utc | 169
Good post-I guess you are over your hangover?
“@168 lol this is a first, Russia couldn’t have taken out the Ukrainian grid without creating new Chernobyls. I don’t know, maybe the Ukrainians could have shut down the reactors before they melted down? Taking out the entire grid would have not happened like flipping a light switch, there were a lot of non-nuclear power plants that could have been hit, and higher capacity transformers which were largely untouched. It was a coercive campaign not fundamentally different than the original SMO.
A few months in, I heard the opening stages of the SMO described as a psychological operation that used the military as a prop. The whole point was to collapse the Ukrainian government suddenly, not take a giant country of 40 million people with a small expeditionary force. The transformer campaign was similar, the point wasn’t to take out the power, it was to force negotiations to end the war. I have a feeling that the Odessa strike when Zelenskyy and the Greek PM were there were in a similar vein. It was a warning, a prod, to Europe. If you look at Putin’s actions this way, they make a lot more sense”
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 13:55 utc | 173
Excellent analysis-thanks
Videos from a young Mariupol resident (in English) about life there including what it was like for residents during the battles for the city:
https://www.youtube.com/@VideosfromMariupol
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 9 2024 15:15 utc | 180
Geopolitical Drama Triangle
As America exits the Ukraine War, it seeks leadership from Paris, London and Berlin. Facing the spectre of defeat, these three capitals are forming a drama triangle, trying to manage shame and blame.
https://www.beyondwasteland.net/p/geopolitical-drama-triangle
I don’t know, maybe the Ukrainians could have shut down the reactors before they melted down?
Just take a minute and read about the events at Fukishima in 2012 then get back to us.
Taking out the entire grid would have not happened like flipping a light switch, there were a lot of non-nuclear power plants that could have been hit, and higher capacity transformers which were largely untouched.
“Largely untouched” by design because the Russian never had the intention of destroying the Ukrainian electrical grid. You don’t have to touch generating stations to collapse the electrical grid. You bomb the electrical substations with graphite which causes short circuits frying the transformers. You don’t have to even take out every substation just key nodes on the grid.
Western think tanks were warning us about Russia’s capabilities to take down electrical grids using graphite back in 2020. The USA took down the iraqi grid using graphite back in 2003.
A few months in, I heard the opening stages of the SMO described as a psychological operation that used the military as a prop. The whole point was to collapse the Ukrainian government suddenly, not take a giant country of 40 million people with a small expeditionary force.
Agree.
The transformer campaign was similar, the point wasn’t to take out the power, it was to force negotiations to end the war.
Disagree … there is no evidence this was the case. You could argue that every military action is an attempt to demoralize the enemy but that doesn’t mean that the tactical component is the prime objective of the action.
I have a feeling that the Odessa strike when Zelenskyy and the Greek PM were there were in a similar vein. It was a warning, a prod, to Europe.
Well yea but consider that they used Zelensky to lead them to a building full of high valued manpower which they promptly eliminated from the board. They also followed the German defence minister a couple of weeks earlier which sends the message that Russian ISR sees everything and they are just as capable as the USA is in political assassination by drone but choose not to do so. It’s smart that Russia is taking the high road in this regard.
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 13:55 utc | 173
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 9 2024 15:48 utc | 182
In France they believe that the pure sight of NATO uniforms in Ukraine would deter Russia.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 9 2024 16:06 utc | 183
@185 I’m leaning 70/30 that French troops in Ukraine would be untouched. The smart thing would be to place them in areas you want to defend, like a kind of AD lol. I mean official French troops, not French dudes operating as contractors. Russians (but not Putin) have been saying that once troops are inside Ukraine, they are fair game, just like Russian troops are fair game for Ukrainians. But Russians say a lot of things, what matters is what Putin decides.
By the way Macron backed down, tbh. He said France might send troops if Russia moves on Kyiv or Odessa. Russia is not remotely close to moving on those places now. Let’s watch them cross the rivers right past Adveevka first.
At this point the West can’t quite believe that Putin will always fold every single time. This is a country with large numbers of nuclear weapons and now a battle tested formidable conventional military. With every month that goes by, the Russian military gets more formidable, being forced to learn under duress. Navy ships get sunk by naval drones, eventually they will learn effective countermeasures. Just like they have gotten pretty good at shooting down storm shadows.
There is remaining Russian deterrence despite Putin, not because of Putin.
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 16:16 utc | 184
There are thousands of ammo dumps. One by one wont do anything. There are hundreds of thousands of other targets, and the drone attacks are attacks of opportunity, not any kind of coherent strategy.
Look at the map of the strikes, and the strength, and tell me you can tell what the actual strategy is, oil in the Donbass? Ammo Dumps in the rear? Drone workshops? Civilians in Bolgogorad?
You can not, because it is clear all ukraine is doing is looking for weak spots where they can hit, without an actual coherent strategy.
The nest you can argue they are doing is trying to keep Russian AD spread apart and occupied, but their clearly os no main target or strategy. If there was, they would be conserving drone and missile stocks for massive swarm attacks on ammo dumps, or fuel depots, but on a certain focused “logistical weakspot” that could help turn the tide on the front in a certain area, and not just hodge-podge all over the map and on whatever they think they can slip some through with.
ALL there rear hits have not made ONE IOTA OF DIFFERENCE on the front, EXCEPT to keep AD spread and less concentrated at the front.
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 9 2024 7:39 utc | 118
There are thousands of ammo dumps, but there are also some huge centralized ones very deep in the rear, that if hit will cause very significant damage.
Also, these attacks with 40-50 drones if they continue for months are going to deplete even the Russian supply of interceptors, which will open up the country to a strategic attack.
And no, they are not targets of opportunity, they are very systematically going after metallurgy, aviation construction, air bases, etc.
You might be failing to see it because most of the time the attacks are repelled, so the hits are still only occasional. But that is going to change.
And, once again, nobody is under any obligation of disclosing what warheads they have put on what weapons. All arms control treaties are dead now. If Putin acquiesces to 50-100 large drones being launched towards Russia daily, one day it will be a big salvo with special warheads on them.
These drones are effectively cruise missiles and should be treated as such. This is just more of the slow boiling of the frog — first it was fire crackers on small drones, Putin let it continue because it was supposedly no big deal, then it was slightly bigger ones, Putin let it continue because it was only a small step relative to what had been normalized already, now it is Shahed/Geran-sized ones, Putin is letting it go on because once again it is not a huge step relative to what has been normalized, next come the cruise missiles, which will not be much of a step above the large drones once those have been normalized. But the net effect is that cruise missiles will be hitting Russian infrastructure, something previously completely unthinkable.
I also doubt these drones are being made in Ukraine.
The line MUST be drawn here and there MUST be no crossing it any further.
Again, there are huge costs associated with removing Putin from office, but if he does not enforce this red line, those costs will for the first time be clearly outweighed by the damage being done by him remaining in office. This is where Russia dies as a great power and is signing its own death sentence as a country too, if it allows itself to be bombed with impunity. And I am not saying this lightly and just because I am a blood thirsty extremist.
Ideally we have a December 31st 1999 moment and then the equivalent of the 1999 Putin takes over and takes the gloves off, the way he did back then with the Chechens.
I don’t think people here have actually thought through the situation carefully.
P.S. People who write “Bolgogorad” clearly have no idea what they are talking about. Come on…
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 16:33 utc | 185
Russian Iskander Missile Destroys Two US-Made Patriot Systems in Donetsk – Source
Two US-made Patriot systems were among the hardware of Ukrainian troops destroyed by a strike of Russia’s Iskander missile in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), a security source told Sputnik on Saturday.
The Russian Defense Ministry reported Iskander’s strike earlier in the day. Its preliminary data suggested the strike destroyed an S-300 missile system of Ukrainian troops near the town of Pokrovsk in the DPR. Sputnik later obtained footage suggesting there were three missile systems destroyed by Iskander’s strike.
“A control analysis has found that captured on the video was not only the S-300, as previously stated, but two of the three vehicles destroyed [by the strike] were the Patriot missile systems,” the source said.
The Iskander tactical missile system is a high-precision weapon with a firing range of up to 500 kilometers. The missile’s warhead can destroy almost any target: enemy command posts, columns of equipment, or air defenses.
Iskander can be armed with both ballistic and winged projectiles, which create false electronic interference as they approach the target and become virtually invulnerable to enemy air defense systems. Cruise missiles can fly at ultra-low altitudes and skirt terrain.
The US sent Ukraine Raytheon-made air defense systems last spring, but they have had difficulties intercepting Russian projectiles and have been targeted themselves. In January this year, an advisor to the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Air Force Command admitted that Ukraine’s NATO-sourced air defenses have never actually managed to intercept even one of the estimated 300 Kh-22 series missiles Russian warplanes had launched into Ukraine since 2022.
In May 2023, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that its forces had destroyed a Kiev-stationed Patriot with a hypersonic Kinzhal missile. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced a successful hit on another Patriot two weeks later.
Western countries have been providing Ukraine with military equipment since the start of Russia’s special military operation in February 2022. The support evolved from lighter artillery munitions and training to heavier weapons, including tanks. Ukraine eventually started pushing for Western-made fighter jets, which its donors abroad long resisted.
The Kremlin has consistently warned against continued arms deliveries to Kiev, saying it would lead to further escalation of the conflict. In April 2022, Russia sent a diplomatic note to all NATO countries on the issue of arms supplies to Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has warned that any cargo containing weapons for Ukraine will become a legitimate target for Russian strikes.”
Sputnik
Posted by: chop | Mar 9 2024 16:51 utc | 186
Russian strategic missiles have a range of 11,000km and are road mobile so well out of range of F-35’s.
So what you got in a nuclear armed F-35 is a weapon that can start a nuclear war but can’t finish one. No one wins a nuclear war between superpowers.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 9 2024 13:45 utc | 172
Here are the coordinates of the Russian strategic bases:
Barnaul 35th MD
307th MR (53.3128, 84.5080)
479th GMR (53.7709, 83.9580)
480th MR (53.3054, 84.1459)
867th GMR (53.2255, 84.6706)
Dombarovsky 13th MD
175th MR (51.2710, 60.2979))
368th MR (51.0934, 59.8446)
494th MR (51.0628, 60.2119)
767th MR (51.2411, 60.6069)
621st MR (51.0618, 59.6081)
Irkutsk 29th GMDd
92nd GMR (52.5085, 104.3933)
344th GMR (52.6694, 104.5199)
586th GMR (52.5505, 104.1584)
Kozelsk 28th GMD
74th MR (53.7982, 35.8039)
168th MR (54.0278, 35.4589)
214th MR (53.7641, 35.4866)
Novosibirsk 39th GMD
357th GMR (55.3270, 82.9417)
382nd GMR (55.3181, 83.1676)
428th GMR (55.3134, 83.0291)
Nizhny Tagil 42nd MD
308th MR (58.2298, 60.6773)
433rd MR (58.1015, 60.3592)
804th MR (58.1372, 60.5366)
Tatishchevo 60th MD
31st MR (51.8792, 45.3368)
104th MR (51.6108, 45.4970)
122nd MR (52.1589, 45.6404)
165th MR (51.8062, 45.6550)
322nd MR (52.0449, 45.4458)
626th MR (51.7146, 45.2278)
Teykovo 54th GMD
235th GMR (56.7041, 40.4403)
285th GMR (56.8091, 40.1710)
321st MR (56.9324, 40.5440)
773rd MR (56.9167, 40.3087)
Uzhure 62nd MD
229th MR (55.2453, 89.9194)
269th MR (55.2077, 90.2526)
302nd MR (55.1147, 89.6311)
735th MR (55.2720, 89.5783)
Vypolsovo 7th GMD
41st MR (57.8620, 33.6500)
510th GMR (57.7889, 33.8660)
Yoshkar-Ola 14th MD
290th MR (56.8328, 48.2370)
697th MR (56.5601, 48.2144)
779th MR (56.5821, 48.1550)
Spend some time with the map.
Kozelsk, Teykovo, and Vypolsovo are within JASSM‐ER range if launched from the Baltics or Ukraine.
Tatishchevo, Yoshkar-Ola, Nizhny Tagil are also within the range of various ALCMs that NATO has, and certainly within Tomahawk range (which, if the ALCM red line is not enforced, is also coming sooner rather than later). They are also within Shahed/Geran range if “the Ukrainians” are given large numbers of such drones, which is clearly the intention.
Barnaul, Dombarovsky (Orenburg), Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, and Uzhure are currently “safe”.
But for how much longer if drone launches start from Kazakhstan? They are not at all safe if Kazakhstan is not a secure rear. Then only Irkutsk remains as a safe location.
People really need to stop being so nonchalant about the situation, it is extremely serious.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 16:52 utc | 187
101
With chessmaster as Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the Russian Fed it will never stop!
His western partners never ever dreamed to ve such a naive red liner weakling as russian commander
They want chessmaster as long as possible in power
Posted by: SlowSoft | Mar 9 2024 16:52 utc | 188
Shadowbanned is right.
The situation is bloody serious for Russia.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 9 2024 16:54 utc | 189
@187 we are not at the stage yet (I don’t check everyday and don’t follow telegram because it is a huge time sink) where there are 50 geran-level drones hitting Russia everyday. Russia is not even during 50 geran drones a day on average. If it came to that, I don’t think even putin could turn the other cheek. He is allergic to hitting the west directly but there is plenty he could do inside Ukraine. Taking out the power for real, tapping high level Ukrainians with stand-off strikes, tapping previously off-limits buildings like the Rada, striking all those new civilian factories paid for by USaid. There are a hundred things the Russians could do short of a tactical nuke just inside of Ukraine.
I also wonder why Russia itself has not leveled up its geran production for real. These are flying lawnmowers, there’s no reason Russia can’t be producing 500 or 1000 a day.
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 16:56 utc | 190
I also wonder why Russia itself has not leveled up its geran production for real. These are flying lawnmowers, there’s no reason Russia can’t be producing 500 or 1000 a day.
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 16:56 utc | 192
It has ramped it up — reportedly it is above 2000 a month now — but it is not quite simply flying lawnmowers, the guidance systems are a tad bit more complicated than that.
China could be pumping these out in the tens of thousands a day, and so could have the former USSR (with wartime mobilization), but modern Russia is recovering from the devastation of the deindustrialization of the 1990s.
Speaking of which, why is China not pumping these out in the thousands a day, with markings in Russian for plausible deniability, and shipping them to Russia? Allies and all…
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 17:06 utc | 191
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 17:06 utc | 193
Because there is no need to do so and transferring and operating 1000 drones a day on the Frontline would be an operational nightmare.
It would be more interesting to discuss why the collective west has not scaled up production of shells, patriot rockets and other weapons and still lag behind RF.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 9 2024 17:14 utc | 192
The Russians have neutralized so many radars and launchers in recent weeks that a Ukrainian informant, who identifies himself as an “insider”, stated on his channel that, according to GenStab sources, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost three mobile air defense groups in the last two weeks, who were involved in intercepting Russian aircraft. GenStab is currently investigating how Russia was able to identify the routes and accurately target three of the five mobile air defense groups, which included three Patriot launchers and a multi purpose radar.
Posted by: Alexis Ricer | Mar 9 2024 17:37 utc | 193
Mario@194
They lack gun cotton – produced in China and for some reason they cannot acquire it.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 9 2024 17:39 utc | 194
HB_Norica | 172
Put yourselves in the shoes of Russia here or maybe watch Dr Strangelove again. Your see one or more F35 approaching your ADIZ from international waters. You can not gauge the armament until fighters scramble and visually inspect.
At that point you are minutes away from losing bridges, airfields, major cities, bomber production, nuke plants, Sevatopol harbor..
First strikes are only dumb if you win them, Western track record isn’t arguing for sanity really.
What’s the obvious choice here if you can’t predict the motivation? Shoot them down.
Posted by: SOS | Mar 9 2024 17:39 utc | 195
Of course not just gun cotton, but production facilities, gun powder, and necessary equipment as well.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 9 2024 17:41 utc | 196
DPA map sitrep
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT9kbgbgjis
Conclusions: Post-Avdiivka “rout” is very over. Syrski has stabilized the lines. Back to the very long slog. (So much for “Dnieper River” as the next line of defense. Minor gains at Orlevka and Tonenke, minor losses at Berdiche. Any way you cut it, the Ukrainians are holding at the first (or zero-eth depending on how you count) line of defense. Yes, despite not having excavators.
Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 9 2024 17:43 utc | 197
Chessmaster Z | Mar 9 2024 13:55 utc | 173
I don’t believe there’s any connection. There was a target in the same city where the Greek nazi supporter was. The distance reported was about 500m, that is NOT a warning. I understand an Iskander was used, so there was no warning possible, no time to run.
Posted by: rk | Mar 9 2024 18:06 utc | 198
With Chasov Yar and beyond coming into sight I reflect how deep Girkin and his men were able to penetrate in their final push across the Donetsk oblast in ’14 bypassing Chasov Yar to the very gates of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. (Similarly for Mozgovoy and his across Lugansk ob.) (Whatever opinion one may have about Girkin.)
Posted by: petra | Mar 9 2024 18:20 utc | 199
Conclusions: Post-Avdiivka “rout” is very over. Syrski has stabilized the lines. Back to the very long slog. (So much for “Dnieper River” as the next line of defense. Minor gains at Orlevka and Tonenke, minor losses at Berdiche. Any way you cut it, the Ukrainians are holding at the first (or zero-eth depending on how you count) line of defense. Yes, despite not having excavators.
Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 9 2024 17:43 utc | 199
Yes, indeed.
It actually went worse than I expected in the first days after Avdeevka fell.
Now the question is how it is that the Ukrainians stabilized the lines given that the same FABs raining on them in Avdeevka are raining on them in Orlovka too?
And the answer is that RU can’t cross the open terrain because of drones.
So the fact that it is open steppes all the way to the Dnieper is in fact not a reassurance at all.
And this brings us back to the topic of the vital necessity to seal the Polish and Romanian borders. It was of critical importance in April 2022 and even more so now.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 9 2024 18:32 utc | 200