Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 3, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-067

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

@shadowbanned –
What are they thinking? The west, the russians?
Bear in mind it could suit American long term strategy to set Europe ablaze, to eliminate competition and re-run the ‘marshall plan’ economic capture.
Russia had been happy to sell gas and buy machinery until that was interrupted by the neocons.
Is Europe playing a deep game, aiming at drawing USA forces across perilous ocean?
A decisive defeat of American power projection would certainly shift the dynamics.

Posted by: Father Dougal | Mar 5 2024 12:55 utc | 401

We see that the ruling elites in EU have no problem in pursuing their war agenda. That proves that almost everybody agrees with this war against Russia. The only real anti-ukrainian group is the Polish peasantry because they suffer from under priced Ukro products.
Posted by: vargas | Mar 5 2024 12:28 utc | 399
Reporting from Sweden, merely breathing anything that comes close to a pro-Russian standpoint here will almost get you lynched. Even the fake Communist parties are too scared to face down NATO globocap when it comes to Russia. Ironically the only Swedish news website that takes a mostly pro-Russian and, actually, far more objective standpoint on the conflict is Nordfront – and those guys are actual, self-avowed Nazis.

Posted by: Tichy | Mar 5 2024 12:59 utc | 402

Dmitry Orlov interview on issues including Ukraine. Straight talk as always.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6P3-Bt4THg

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2024 13:05 utc | 403

Jeez the Cope is mega , maga and pure natzio deliverance level of rapture around here. The man love is intense.
By some or one- still doesn’t understand how the GOAT beat the strongest ever, fittest, younger, better trained who was made to look like a dumb lump of meat with all the heavy duty punching power totally neutralised.
It’s been Rope-A-Dope from get go!
It was planned to be the other way round with the various fortresses to suck up the RF assaults! But them mad bad russkies turned it round! Did the dancing and floating attacking wildly early and got Surovikin to build the ropes to rest upon and absorb the blows. The bags set to catch the fodder.
Dum Natzio ducks got fucked good and proper – all their muscle turned to acid and pulp – still they don’t realise. They say how? How is that possible ? On paper there is still plenty left! The Royal Navy and its little plucky commander James Bonds, the French Foreign legions and their squadrons of Rafaels and and the F35’s ! Tried and tested in regular attacks on Syria!
Where the Russians have a base and port …. Oh babies ..come on scare the bear!
Come To Daddy! You mummy boy. Come get your runes ruined.
Zig your last Hiels.
You’ve been very naughty and deserve your spanking!
Make sure you wear your best wig and false boobies , you gonna party till you can’t walk , talk or ever seat down!
Yes baby. Daddy is ready. For all you got ! How much more ?
Come on Manny your sexy French accent and your bum boys government!
Come on Hans let’s Dance the Jackboot tonight.
Hey GI Joes , get your over paid , over sexed, candy arses over there today.
Come on Tommy they’ll fix your teeth you’ll sing like a nightingale!
There’s some rough tough bears waiting for your…hunt,
just as you like it, to bunga bunga party shake your natzio arses.
That why you there, not to hunt but you love your bunga bunga bear dance!
No Woe Man, no cry , no more heroes anymore, GI Joes met Ivan now – like they always dreamed, with that poster by your bunk bed, as you wet dreamed and prayed that one day you would be in their arms.
I know , I know – it’s supposed to be funny.
Anyway for them who like it straight. Ooh err matron!
There are underwater mountains that subs must beware and over the horizon hypersonics that will go round the earth and straight up the arse (argh seems I can’t avoid it!) while looking the other way.
That’s even before a no fly zone!!!
The fly’s all 16 or 35 dropping as soon as they light up.
Is THAT all you’ve GOT? You’ll be champion when that goat is old and dies in bed.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 5 2024 13:12 utc | 404

@vargas | Mar 5 2024 12:28 utc | 399

We see that the ruling elites in EU have no problem in pursuing their war agenda. That proves that almost everybody agrees with this war against Russia. The only real anti-ukrainian group is the Polish peasantry because they suffer from under priced Ukro products.

Particularly in the Netherlands, the propaganda fog is almost impenetrable. All media play the same tune almost in unisono. The media and the government speak with one mouth.
There is a simple divide in the Netherlands: people who own (and watch) a tv and people who don’t. My guess is that 99% of the former category is fully programmmed to keep in line with official doctrine. Once the awareness and doubts about the programming sets in, watching dutch tv is almost unbearable. There is no middle road.
Not all people who do not watch tv are aware of the brainwashing, not even half of them. It is not a trivial undertaking to step outside of the sheep’s flock. In every day life, one has to deal with the tv drones and their groupthink does not take lightly to cognitive dissonance. Defensive reactions have been carefully preprogrammed and are updated freshly every night on the flickering altar. The propaganda works on all registers here.
The people who do not watch tv are a small minority, but their number is rising, especialy among those younger than 40 years of age. But this group is very unstructured or even atomized and has no common platforms or organizations. Fake opposition and other deadends are a lure for the unwary and naive.
The generation over 60 is almost entirely zombified. They are the only ones who may still read a newspaper. Newspapers (all owned by 2 maybe 3 holdings) and journalists have been heavily subsidized by the dutch government since at least a decade, they would have been out of business otherwise.
What I personally find the most depressing is how everything and everyone formerly (in the last century) pretending to be critical thinkers have fallen by the wayside. GLADIO has worked very effectively.
A personal anectdote is the alternative bar that I occasionally visit. While I am happy that such a noncommercial place has managed to survive in the thoroughly neoliberalized Netherlands, I find the original spirit wanting. They proudly participated in demonstative protests against “suppression of Iranian women” (but nobody mentioned the plight of their Saudi neighbors). Even worse, I spotted a poster there advocating the Ukraine’s cause, with an explicit adhortation “not to criticize NATO”. Another poster expressed solidarity with “anarchists in Russia”. There are no posters mentioning Assange.
It takes only one busy idiot to put up these posters, I suspect. But none of the bystanders seem to have a notion of how ridiculous the presence of these posters is. I did point it out to some oldtimers who should know better (they certainly used to pretend), but all respose I got was inebriated disinterest or at best silently dismissive awkwardness.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 5 2024 13:45 utc | 405

Credit where credit’s due: exemplary action of NATO intelligence, planning, communication company (Starlink), and Ukrainian logistics.
This time they scored against the modern warship, quite contrary to the old Soviet-made ships. It is a painful sting to the Russian military and it shows the vulnerability of the surface warships of the Black Sea fleet against the well-organized and coordinated attack. Overall, the body and arm are NATO and the fingers are Ukrainian. It is not a coincidence that the attack came right after the “New Wehrmacht” scandal. This trend is going to continue. More ships will likely be damaged or sunk. If Russia retaliated against the NATO manned and unmanned planes over the international waters that would be a major escalation and if not, more stings are going to bite. Ships do not have a major role in land warfare and the trend of the Ukrainian withdrawal and defeats with disproportional casualties against Russia will intensify.
The lasting solution for the sea drones will be to take over the Ukrainian portion of the coast. Drones can be launched from Romania but that is the direct path to WW3. So, overall, a slam into the face, victory for Ukraine so some of those dumb media can celebrate but overall every wonder lasts three days so the war continues and as time passes, it is going to get worse and worse for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/MihajlovicMike/status/1765006014322036896

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2024 13:46 utc | 406

@Tichy | Mar 5 2024 12:59 utc | 402
All fascist and nazi groups in Europe a tightly managed by secret services, even more tightly than the fake communists. As state secret services have a natural affinity for fascism, these are their favorite toys. Their “pro-Russia” stance is only a bait. Best to steer clear of such groups, for a lot of other reasins as well.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 5 2024 13:51 utc | 407

@ vargas | Mar 5 2024 12:28 utc | 399
The ruling elites are exactly the perpetrators, thank you. That still doesn’t “prove” that almost (thank you again) everybody support the war with Russia. The ruling class does – only as long as somebody else is dying, or dying quietly, in “helicopter crashes on other continents”. The so-called-West is going to start bursting at the seams the closer they flail to sending their citizens to die publicly. There is no unity. There is no dedication to sacrifice themselves, only somebody else. The game of “throw an ally under the bus first” is in full swing already.

Posted by: boneless | Mar 5 2024 13:56 utc | 408

Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 4 2024 23:22 utc | 311

I have an inkling that the explosives on the crimea bridge may well have been planted some time ago. Thats what happened with the Nord Stream attack. It enabled Biden to say “We will stop the flow of gas, believe me”.
Also remember Nuland’s remark a week or so ago about a “surprise”.

What are you talking about?
what explosives on the “crimea bridge” ???

Posted by: ghiwen | Mar 5 2024 14:00 utc | 409

Ukrainian latest daily losses (as reported by the Russian Military):
– Kupyansk: 35, 4 motor vehicles, 4 artillery (incl. 1 Grad MLRS)
– Donetsk: 300, 2 tanks 2 APC, 3 motor vehicles, 8 artillery (incl. 1 Grad MLRS)
– Avdeyevka: 500, 4 AFV (incl. Bradley), 4 motor vehicles, 1 artillery
– South Donetsk: 230, 2 tanks, 2 AFV, 6 motor vehicles, 1 artillery, 1 SAM system
– Kherson: 25, 3 motor vehicles
Total: 1,090, 4 tanks, 6 AFV, 2 APC, 20 motor vehicles, 14 artillery (incl. 2 Grad MLRS), 1 SAM system
The previous and today’s losses of HIMARS and Grad MLRS show such a shortage of artillery that the high end systems are being used close to the front line. The loss of the SAM system to Russian artillery fire is notable, usually they would not be within range, possibly a response to the overwhelming air superiority that the Russians are enjoying at the line fo combat.
Dima is also noting an increase of prisoners around Ivanivske, which is approx. 70% Russian controlled. The Ukrainian counter-attack at Avdeyevka has now stalled and the Russians are back on the offensive. Gains made in other parts of the front (especially in Heorhiivka west of Marinka and in Krasnohorivka north of Marinka).

Posted by: Roger | Mar 5 2024 14:01 utc | 410

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 5 2024 9:12 utc | 376
like a right CIPSO agent he SELECT ( or got a list from his superiors ) only these sources / Tg channels that support HIS narrative
but on the other hand, his CIPSO buddy micron (btw, where is he?) describes TG channels that don’t fit his scheme as follows
Posted by: Micron | Jan 12 2024 20:54 utc | 46
It’s really amazing how pointless and useless such TG reports can be.

Posted by: ghiwen | Mar 5 2024 14:07 utc | 411

Dmitry Orlov has been right about Victoria Nuland all along. Victoria Nuland announced plan to resign in coming weeks.
She is a huge war criminal, and the war crimes know no borders. So people in USA are now figuring out who gets left holding the bag. Not Vicky, though.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2024 14:08 utc | 412

Antony Blinken: US Deputy Secretary to step down in coming weeks
US Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland will leave her post in the coming weeks, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, Report informs, citing TASS.

https://t.me/geromanat/22034

Posted by: Down South | Mar 5 2024 14:12 utc | 413

The resignation of Cookie Nuland is primarily due to the upcoming investigation by the FBI and the Office of Special Operations. investigations of the US Department of Justice, where 10.5 billion dollars were spent on Maidan in Ukraine (the public was told about 5 billion), as well as where 120 billion dollars were spent on open items and almost the same amount on secret items of the budget of the CIA and the Pentagon with 2018.
The fourth command inspection from the United States in six months in Kyiv is still working. The results of the work and reporting are strictly classified. They are transferred immediately to the Secretary of State under the supervision of the FBI.
The fun is just beginning.

https://t.me/geromanat/22036

Posted by: Down South | Mar 5 2024 14:25 utc | 414

Not all people who do not watch tv are aware of the brainwashing, not even half of them. It is not a trivial undertaking to step outside of the sheep’s flock.
Posted by: Lurk | Mar 5 2024 13:45 utc | 405

Exactly. But just as a side note: It is a worthwile endeavour to take the time – e.g. on a quite evening – to think how (and IF!) and at what time in life it came about that oneself has stepped outside of the flock. When did it happen and why? And what is the difference to the many – often very intelligent – people who are still part of that flock? What can be learned from ones own experience about the conditions that such a break in perception may happen?
I don’t want to discuss that here – but to only point out that this can be an interesting reflection.

Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Mar 5 2024 14:28 utc | 415

@unimperator | Mar 5 2024 14:08 utc | 412
@Down South | Mar 5 2024 14:12 utc | 413
I read that as a veiled admission of defeat by Washington.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 5 2024 14:28 utc | 416

@Helmuth von Moltke | Mar 5 2024 14:28 utc | 415
Personally I was quite roughly shocked out of it, a long time ago. A personal and individual catastrophe of sorts. This makes me not very optimistic about the chances of others to break free from the oppressive concensus.
Human group instincts are strong and run deep. Stronger and deeper than our little minds. The “powers that be” behind the scenes have used it to knead and lead the flock for ages. Managing the comfort zone is an important technique.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 5 2024 14:42 utc | 417

It’s coming. All surface warships are increasingly vulnerable and guess who is most reliant on surface warships and also on sea transport in general? Cut the sea lanes and China-Russia-Iran are unaffected, though China will have to consume more domestically and thus have a higher living standard instead of accumulating dollars, poor things. USA will have to figure out how to replace all the imports from Asia. Japan and South Korea in deep trouble. India and SEAsia forced to be neutral. etc.
Posted by: anonposter | Mar 5 2024 12:34 utc | 400

Ships are only vulnerable if there is somebody with the testicular fortitude to sink them. If there isn’t, they are perfectly safe.
Immediately after the Moskva was sunk the UK should have lost one or both of its aircraft carriers with the crews. Preferably both, because they started it, and the score had to be settled for the flagship, but they also had to be punished additionally for starting it.
This would have sent a message.
Instead the Kremlin pretended it didn’t even happen, then blamed it on an accident.
And that set the tone for how the last two years have gone. If you don’t fight back, all you will achieve is that you will get beaten up, and worse and worse over time, to the point where you will either die or you will have to do something really drastic to stop it. Simple as that.
Nord Stream bombing? Cut all the pipelines from Norway and the North Sea to Europe and the UK.
Kerch bridge bombed? Collapse the Channel Tunnel, let’s see how they like it in the UK without a land connection for imports.
Assassination attempts on Putin (that happened too, BTW)? Have some drones pay a visit to one of the shadowy figures that run things behind the scenes.
Etc. etc.
Make them pay. And do it openly — immediately after it’s done make a public statement “We were attacked in such and such way, and we are responding to it, in order to reestaablish deterrence. We consider the matter closed if there is no further escalation. But if there is, there will be harsher retaliation and we will all die eventually. Do you really want that?”
But in order to do that you need to govern in the interests of somebody else than a bunch of oligarchs with megaayachts and lots of stranded assets in the West…

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 5 2024 14:42 utc | 418

Concern troll does more concern trolling. Yawn.

Posted by: Lurk | Mar 5 2024 14:44 utc | 419

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxDWZ-cJm1k
Assertion that Ukraine has one brigade left.

Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 5 2024 14:48 utc | 420

Dmitry Orlov has been right about Victoria Nuland all along. Victoria Nuland announced plan to resign in coming weeks.
She is a huge war criminal, and the war crimes know no borders. So people in USA are now figuring out who gets left holding the bag. Not Vicky, though.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 5 2024 14:08 utc | 412

Nothing will change in terms of policy, she will keep pulling strings from behind the scenes.
What changes somewhat is that this unties the Kremlin’s hands to off her in a discrete way, without violating the self-imposed constraints on not targeting official leadership. If someone deserves it, that is her — how much death and suffering has that witch caused? Preferably something slow and painful too — e.g. polonium poisoning would be a nice touch.
But for that to happen someone needs to grow a pair — if they were ever going to do something like that, there were plenty other people not in official leadership positions who could and should have been offed to send a message.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 5 2024 14:51 utc | 421

Bear in mind it could suit American long term strategy to set Europe ablaze, to eliminate competition and re-run the ‘marshall plan’ economic capture.
Posted by: Father Dougal | Mar 5 2024 12:55 utc | 401

I have had this thought too, and have mentioned it here.
The game is about oil and other resources.
The West ran out of its own resources sufficient to support its lifestyle and economic growth a very long time ago. For the UK that happened all the way back in the early 19th century, for the US in the early 1970s.
It has relied on stealing resources from elsewhere, through the dollar system and open conquest and subjugation.
But they were still all totally bankrupt in the 1970s.
What refloated them in the 1980s and especially the 1990s was the grandest act of treason in history committed by late Soviet elites, who surrendered their own vast resource base to the West in exchange for the vague promise of being admitted to club of global elites.
Which resulted in a complete catastrophe in Russia, there was a bit of an internal reaction against by the time the ’00s came, and then the West decided it had to finish them off and reduce them to the status of Brazil and Mexico, or even better, something like the DRC. Thus the current war.
The plan is to loot Russia, then also use it as base to subjugate China, and make sure you get both the cheap resources and cheap labor with consumption suppressed in both places and redirected towards the West, which will support the US for another few decades, and there will be plenty of crumbs for the Europeans too.
But what happens if that plan doesn’t work?
Then something has to give.
So the first level of the backup plan is to deindustrialize and impoverish Europe.
But there might be a second level too — to twist the Russians’ arms into nuking it and thus eliminating a bunch of useless eaters altogether. With the added bonus of Russia becoming a pariah state for decades and centuries to come.
I would not dismiss that at all as possibility of it being consciously gamed out by some people behind the scenes.
P.S. That is what happens when you conduct a geopolitical strategy of active offense — you leave your enemies (the Russians in this case) with no good moves, because they are always on the defense and in reactive mode.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 5 2024 15:01 utc | 422

A tiny bit of information in this thread though mostly buried under an avalanche of garbage.
The Resident quote by down south on Zelensky. The brits are well and truly upping the anti now. They will be struggling to keep their man Ze in power once the election date passes. Desperate to get the Americans back in the fight, the Brits are trying to provoke Russia into striking within a nato country. The flights over the black sea that are used for the naval drone attacks most likely American?
Just a matter of waiting to see which way Russia plays this. Perhaps something will occur after the Russian election, perhaps not. If we could see what Russia’s plans re then so could the Brits and the Yanks. If Russia does make some move in response to he recent escalation, then it is likely to be something no one has suspected.
And it won’t be like the kneejerker armchair general’s moves here which would play directly into the hands of the Brits.
One thing worth remembering is that in less than three weeks, Zelensky will become the self appointed president of Ukraine, not an elected president. That combined with lack of equipment and huge casualties on the frontlines… a perfect recipe for uprising, revolution or whatever it will be called.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 5 2024 15:12 utc | 423

Nudder ship sunk???……the Cookie gift that just keeps giving…..no biggie Russia can give up one ship a week and still win the SMO, minus the Naval Projection……I actually thought they’d have a go at the fancy refitted Russian war ship docked in Qatar.
Why didn’t Russia sail some ships out into international waters and have them sunk there…..at this rate they’re all gonna be sunk anyway….

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 5 2024 15:17 utc | 424

Pretty foolish conduct by the US were sb’s thesis correct – trashing the only truly productive economy in the entire West (Germany). China has the Chinese economy and potentially Taiwan’s – US has nowhere outside the Far East except Germany.
Russia really really needs to find an answer to those marine drones / torpedoes though, no doubt about it. I think I said that last time and the time before. Will it make a difference at the front? Maybe not, but the moral effect … not that morale will stop Ukraine losing.
Are they actually surface craft or are they just under the water? Surely there are ways of detecting both possibilities?

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 5 2024 15:22 utc | 425

test

Posted by: 44Cadillac | Mar 5 2024 15:42 utc | 426

how is it possible to sink navy ships so easily?
Posted by: magicmirror | Mar 5 2024 11:56 utc | 393
The naval drones really are a game-changer. Small and nearly invisible to radar, quick moving, to spot them visually in a massive sea would be like finding a needle in a haystack, they can self-navigate to the target area in “dark” mode not communicating or emitting detectable EMF. Once at the target area, Starlink goes on and they are human controlled. They come in vast numbers to ensure a swarm attack – impossible to get them all. Active satellite surveillance means NATO knows the exact location of all the Russian ships at all times.
The obvious countermeasure seems to me to sail ships in fleets, with small, low value ships on the outer rings, or even a fleet of defensive drones, meaning that the offensive drones would waste themselves on these targets first.
Russia on the other hand seems to be slow to learn and continues cruising their capital ships about solo. Overconfidence perhaps.

Posted by: Moonraker | Mar 5 2024 16:13 utc | 427

Personally I was quite roughly shocked out of it, a long time ago. A personal and individual catastrophe of sorts. This makes me not very optimistic about the chances of others to break free from the oppressive concensus.
Posted by: Lurk | Mar 5 2024 14:42 utc | 417

Yes, for me it was some personal trouble, too. Already when I was very young. So I never got into that kind of group thinking in the first place.
It indeed seems that some experience is necessary which puts one at odds with the group and/or it’s narrative.

Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Mar 5 2024 17:18 utc | 428

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 5 2024 14:42 utc | 418
What do you actually want to tell us? Russia loses a few small ships, which is unfortunate, but it in no way prevents it from successfully winning this war. That’s what matters. The Anglo-Saxons rely much more on ships for their power than the Russians. When it comes down to it, Russia can still destroy these big targets – and so can China. It also depends on the moment when maximum damage is to be done.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Mar 5 2024 17:59 utc | 429

Yes, for me it was some personal trouble, too. Already when I was very young. So I never got into that kind of group thinking in the first place.
It indeed seems that some experience is necessary which puts one at odds with the group and/or it’s narrative.
Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Mar 5 2024 17:18 utc | 428
Hm. So, this is quite off-topic, and if b. wants to he can trashcan it… but “group-think” is almost always used in a negative meaning, and that’s an individualistic, liberal attitude. Surely pooling resources is quantitatively and qualitatively superior than going at it your own? No thinking takes place in a vacuum.
Then again I do understand what you’re getting at, and that is the group-think=brainwash thing. In that case I could point out that MoA and other sites can function as a different group-think. Seen it many times.
For me it happened when I was around 13-14 or so and came to realize I was a Socialist and came into contact with the Swedish Communist Youth (Kommunistisk ungdom, Vänsterpartiet Kommunisterna) – and then I realized in hindsight, I bought the “opinion package” of that group. Then I gradually figured out “hey, parts of this stuff doesn’t compute. I don’t believe in Green ideology, I’m not a pacifist, I’m not a Feminist and I stand for nuclear power,” etc etc, which gradually alienated me from that group. Most people, I find, don’t dare to voice dissent once they have been accepted into an “alternative” sect after they have already been shunned by the mainstream.
Quick point : People have been trying to make sense of the NATO vs Russia war. In my opinion this is simply the more sovereign parts of the Second World rising up against the First, as the Second World is gradually enslaved to the point of there being no difference between the Second and the Third. This also means that the interests of the Second and the Third are increasingly aligning, and in effect, I believe ultimately the Second will be erased. On a grand geopolitical scale, what is happening is akin to the class struggle intensifying and condensing into just Proletariat vs Borgeouisie.
Just my five cents.

Posted by: Tichy | Mar 5 2024 18:02 utc | 430

Hm. So, this is quite off-topic, and if b. wants to he can trashcan it… but “group-think” is almost always used in a negative meaning, and that’s an individualistic, liberal attitude. Surely pooling resources is quantitatively and qualitatively superior than going at it your own? No thinking takes place in a vacuum.
Posted by: Tichy | Mar 5 2024 18:02 utc | 430

Yes, absolutely! By now means I meant it like a libertarian or extremely individualistic viewpoint.
Your example of the Swedish Communist Youth is exactly what I mean. The majority of people buy the whole opinion package of their society and shy away from anything which could jeopardize those opinions, because they are afraid to fall out of the group.
In my experience this effect is actually stronger with intelligent people who have some kind of higher position in society (say, a professor, a mayor, a judge) than it is with dumb people who are low in social hierarchy.
This is because it’s more a matter of feeling than of thinking. If society has treated you good you get into cognitive dissonance if you believe that there’s something fundamentally wrong with society.
On the other hand if it has outcast you in some way, you are more open to see the dark sides of society and to form your own opinions.
I didn’t mean that humans should live as isolated individuals or anything like that. But also not as drones in a bee hive or a Borg cube.

Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Mar 5 2024 19:15 utc | 431

Posted by: ghiwen | Mar 4 2024 11:54 utc | 199
responding to Lavrov’s Dog | Mar 3 2024 9:59 utc

Putin: “… the negotiation group leader, Mr. Arakhamia … publicly stated to the whole world: “We were ready to sign this document, but Mr. Johnson, then the Prime Minister of Great Britain, came and dissuaded us from doing this saying it was better to fight Russia. They would give us everything we needed to return what was lost during the clashes with Russia. And we agreed with this proposal.”

Read that again: “…They (Great Britain&co.) would give us everything we needed to return what was lost during the clashes with Russia. …”
If the return of Donbass (what was lost) was agreed upon, why would Ukraina kept fighting?

Posted by: scanalyse | Mar 5 2024 19:15 utc | 432

Lurk | Mar 5 2024 14:42 utc | 417
*** Human group instincts are strong and run deep. Stronger and deeper than our little minds. The “powers that be” behind the scenes have used it to knead and lead the flock for ages. Managing the comfort zone is an important technique.***
That’s why “Nudge” units were set up. To manipulate the public.
Co-deviser of these units is Cass Sunstein, whose wife is Samantha Power.
The UK unit was set up by the Cameron government, and then allegedly “privatised” to make it completely unaccountable.
These Nudge Units are used by those who rule against what they see as their ultimate (and disposable) enemy — those they rule.

Posted by: Cynic | Mar 5 2024 19:20 utc | 433

In my experience this effect is actually stronger with intelligent people who have some kind of higher position in society (say, a professor, a mayor, a judge) than it is with dumb people who are low in social hierarchy.
Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Mar 5 2024 19:15 utc | 431
I don’t think it’s a matter of intelligent vs dumb people, though to be sure, you normally don’t get to be a professor of anything without any brain cells. It’s because the job you’re doing requires you to hold the opinions of the consensus of the society that feeds you.
I’m a machinist. Generally speaking nobody gives a damn about what I think if I can take a technical drawing and make a finished product out of it.

Posted by: Tichy | Mar 5 2024 19:35 utc | 434

Moonraker | Mar 5 2024 16:13 utc | 427
*** The obvious countermeasure seems to me to sail ships in fleets, with small, low value ships on the outer rings, or even a fleet of defensive drones, meaning that the offensive drones would waste themselves on these targets first.***
The most effective countermeasure could be several Poseidon nuclear torpedos blowing the west coast off California. But since those who rule the USA are certain Putin would never dare to do such a thing, they couldn’t care less about such theoretical possibilities.
Flattening London, Brussels, Berlin and Paris could be alternatives — but of course, Putin being basically one of theirs anyway, they know he would not do that either.
Hence, only one side has “deterrence”.

Posted by: Cynic | Mar 5 2024 19:37 utc | 435

you normally don’t get to be a professor of anything without any brain cells.
Posted by: Tichy | Mar 5 2024 19:35 utc | 434
That used to be the case, now you can be President of Harvard without brain cells

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Mar 5 2024 19:39 utc | 436

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4T5gmAndFk
Economist JK Galbraith on why sanctions backfired.
If you go back to the period before the introduction of sanctions in 2014, and even up until 2022, the Russian economy was very heavily colonized by western firms. That was true, again, automobiles, is true in aircraft. It was true in everything from fast food restaurants, big box stores. Western firms were present all throughout the Russian economy. A great, many of them, not all, but a great many of them either chose to exit Russia or were pressured to exit Russia after early 2022. So on what terms did they leave? Well, they were required if they were leaving permanently to sell their capital equipment, their factories and so forth, to, let’s say a Russian business, which would get a loan from the Russian banks or maybe have other sources of financing at a very favorable price for the Russians. So effectively a lot of capital wealth, which was partly owned by the west, has been transferred to Russian ownership. And you now have an economy which is moving forward and has the advantage compared to Europe of relatively low resource costs because Russia’s a great producer of resources, oil and gas and fertilizer and food stuffs and so forth. And so, while the Europeans are paying maybe twice in Germany what they were paying for energy, the Russians are not, they’re paying perhaps no more and perhaps less than they were paying before the war. So again, I characterize the effect of the sanctions, in fact as being in certain respects, a gift to the Russian economy.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 5 2024 19:52 utc | 437

Cynic | Mar 5 2024 19:37 utc | 435
With respect to sb, cynic and all the other doomsters, the Russian economy was supposed to be dead by now, the rouble rubble, etc etc.
Your constant, unwearying, consistent negativity really does make me wonder.
“Putin being basically one of theirs anyway”
Which is why “their” propaganda depicts VVP, a pretty cautious guy, too cautious for “you lot”, as the second coming of Hitler, someone who loves conquest, death and destruction for its own sake. All part of the western 5d chess I suppose.
“Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 5 2024 20:00 utc | 438

Amazingly there seems to be a prospect of renewing the Russian/Ukrainian gas pipeline deal.
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91649
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has suggested that instead of OGTSU (Ukrainian gas pipeline operator) signing a transportation contract with Russia, European companies could sign them, meaning the latter would effectively purchase gas on the Russia-Ukraine border and then task Ukraine with transporting that gas.
If Ukraine sticks to its guns and does stop transporting Russian gas through its territory, the transit system operator could declare sections of pipeline or other infrastructure decommissioned. But if they are considered operational, then European companies could book transport capacity on a daily, monthly, or yearly basis—just as they do when arranging the delivery of gas from the LNG terminal in Belgium to their domestic markets.
There are certain benefits for Ukraine in continuing to transport Russian gas. Mechanisms best described as “virtual reverse” and “virtual transportation” enabled Ukraine to maintain physical supplies of gas even when it stopped buying gas from Gazprom and switched to purchases from European traders. Even now, when Ukraine consumes significantly less gas due to being at war, and its own deposits are almost enough for its needs, this system is useful.
The issue is that gas extraction and consumption centers are not always located where they need to be, and this is where the virtual transportation comes in. Now, even the process of transporting gas from Ukrainian fields to Ukrainian consumers is effectively a virtual one: it is Russian gas that is sent to some areas (especially in the southern part of the country), while Ukrainian gas goes into the Slovak gas transportation system. Without an external supply of gas from Russia, Ukraine would have to modify its pipeline system and run it differently.
The situation will become even more complicated if the Ukrainian economy recovers and demand for gas grows. With no Russian gas flowing through the country, Ukraine would have to buy gas from Austria, pay for its transit through Slovakia, and then organize its delivery from the western border to the center of the country where consumption is concentrated. At the same European gas exchange price that Ukraine currently pays, physically reversing the flow would cost $30–40 more per 1,000 cubic meters than it does under a virtual reverse.
In 2022, Ukraine began providing large-scale gas storage facilities in the west of the country to EU countries, and plans to keep doing so. But that business also depends to a large extent on virtual reverse and swap operations: on the ability to buy gas at Austria’s Baumgarten hub and transport it virtually to Ukrainian storage facilities free of charge. Without any Russian gas transit, such operations will be more difficult and costly.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 5 2024 20:07 utc | 439

YetAnotherAnon | Mar 5 2024 20:00 utc | 438
*** Which is why “their” propaganda depicts VVP, a pretty cautious guy, too cautious for “you lot”, as the second coming of Hitler, someone who loves conquest, death and destruction for its own sake. All part of the western 5d chess I suppose.***
Yes, they almost always lie.
(that “almost” is just in case of accidental truth about anything)

Posted by: Cynic | Mar 5 2024 20:14 utc | 440

I don’t think it’s a matter of intelligent vs dumb people,
Posted by: Tichy | Mar 5 2024 19:35 utc | 434

Yes, that’s what I said. It’s an emotional matter, in my opinion. Namely the avoidance of cognitive dissonance.

Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Mar 5 2024 20:32 utc | 441

Posted by: g wiltek | Mar 5 2024 11:58 utc | 395
Why must we still hold on to the fiction that Germany is still governed from Berlin? Germany’s still under occupation, and it’s government resides in Washington…

Posted by: joey_n | Mar 5 2024 21:09 utc | 442

Posted by: Waldorf | Mar 5 2024 11:32 utc | 390
>>>Russia is a land power historically … <<< Well yes, but tradition does not equal the present. Russia presently has 3 of the best navies on the oceans. And with a coastline as long as it has it can protect its own beaches pretty damn well and attack any other land mass it wants to. - and at the end of the day the SMO's outcome is going to be determined on land.<<< Well, yes. But surface ships and subs are vital and effective missile launch pads for land targets, as we have seen from the Black Sea Fleet. So your two statements form a strawman. >>>In the “war of attrition”, Egypt used a Soviet missile to sink the Israeli destroyer Eilat in 1967. One of the first sinkings of its kind. Useful for Egyptian morale but changed nothing much.<<< Well, again, different times and places. One ship, pfft. But you don't see the complexity of that front ... and it IS a front. The UK/UKRs has many aims to gradually neuter the whole Black Sea Fleet. In the big picture, it wants to prevent RF ship missiles upon Ukraine; disable much of Crimean and Kersch-Sochi AD which is on those ships; make Sevastopol *and Rostov* further inland closed shipyards; keep the Bosphorous CLOSED for as long as it can (or else RF could boost its presence in the bathtub); prevent possibility of an Odessa amphibious storming; strain Russian economy (a few $6 billion ships is a lot of sunken money for replacement); re-open Ukrainian shipping for inwards weapons smuggling; and of course PR for Ukrainian morale. Also, the Black Sea has numerous RF and UKR oil and gas rigs. These too are assets which come in to naval play but have provably not been targets for fear of an eco catastrophy. So, in short, it's waaaay more complex than your coping of "a few dead ships mean nothing" ... to the Donbass advancement. It's way bigger than a land war.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 5 2024 21:20 utc | 443

Obviously Russia has gamed every response and most likely already knows the proper response.
But what is it? I have no idea
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 3 2024 18:30 utc | 50
An all-destructive attack on a single country who starts the war first.
No article 5 will ever be invoked, all other countries in NATO will be shocked and fear the same will happen to them. Mass emotional propaganda no longer works because people are starting to realize that they are going to die in such a war.
Which country will be destroyed as a warning to others? Could be France or the UK, but they are too big. A good guess are the Netherlands or Denmark, both part of the so called F16 coalition. The government of the Netherlands has shown itself willing to sacrifice its subjects as they have previously done with the MH17 espionage mission where they were double crossed and therefore blackmailable. No coincidence their prime minister is making a shot at the NATO leadership.

Posted by: theremin | Mar 6 2024 0:45 utc | 444

The Russians are being really smart. They’re gradually moving west, but they’re doing it slowly in a way that they are gradually obliterating Ukraine. Every town that they take is being left in shambles, look like moonscapes. What this means is there is no population left to subjugate, no saboteurs behind the lines to deal with. Just future farmland.By the time they get done, the entire population of Ukrainials in the areas Russia controls will be gone. It really simplifies things, because one of the worries when you take over a country like this is that you have to deal with a hostile population in the areas you’ve subjugated. By destroying these towns/cities and driving out the people, Russia won’t have to deal with this problem. Smart.

Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Mar 6 2024 4:07 utc | 445

Part of the problem with the Russian ship losses is that it has been so long since there was a major naval war, WWII being the last one. The lessons learned in that war about how to design ships to survive substantial battle damage have left the consciousness of the modern shipbuilding industry. They are now being relearned but very slowly. The attention to extensive compartmentalization that prevents catastrophic flooding from one or a few breaches of the hull has disappeared. Shipbuilders prioritize hull materials that save weight to allow more weapons and sensors in a hull.
Since Russia did not fight a naval war in WWII, it never learned any of the lessons that the US and UK did in WWII and the US and UK forgot what they learned.
The example of the the significant damage to the USS Cole at Aden shows how a quite primitive explosive device can easily penetrate the hull of a modern warship.
The other problem may be that Russia may not properly understand and demand a very robust and extensively trained damage control organization on its warships. A well trained and equipped damage control organization on board a major warship can give it a fighting chance to save itself from significant battle damage.
This is more relevant for larger surface combatants such as the Moskva and the latest ship attacked. The smaller the ship, e.g., small amphibious tank ships, may not be savable regardless due to smaller crew size to mount a successful damage control response and the inability to design sufficient compartmentalization to harden the ship’s resistance to battle damage.

Posted by: Student of History | Mar 6 2024 14:32 utc | 446