Ukraine Open Thread 2024-067
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on March 3, 2024 at 14:44 UTC | Permalink
next page »Or it may be that the interests which NATO serves is hinting at leaving the sceptical US behind.
Posted by: jared | Mar 3 2024 15:08 utc | 2
On top of the planned German Taurus missile attack on the Kerch/Crimea bridge we have this.
"Russia's Ministry of Defense (MoD) says it has thwarted Ukrainian "terrorist attacks" using drones on targets in Crimea.
Russia’s air defenses intercepted dozens of "hostile drones" after Kiev launched a swarm of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into the Crimean Peninsula overnight, the MoD announced on Sunday.
"An attempt by the Kiev regime to carry out a terrorist attack using 38 unmanned aerial vehicles was prevented,” the ministry said in its early morning bulletin.
So far, there have been no reports of any damage or injuries on the ground from the Ukrainian "hostile drones."
On Saturday, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) officers intercepted an explosive-rigged vehicle attempting to cross into Crimea from Russia’s Kherson Region.
According to a security source talking to Russian media, an improvised explosive device (IED) made from parts supplied to Ukraine by NATO member states had been discovered."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 3 2024 15:30 utc | 3
Hey b, no separate topic on the eavesdropped Luftwaffe oficers discussing the deplyment of Taurus cruise missiles? I'm kind of surprised since it's a big scandal in many ways.
At the surface, there is the blanket suppresion of reporting, not only in the compliant cartel media, but also including actual censorship of X accounts that republished the audio. The former is not surprising at all, but the latter looks like a clear escalation of efforts into the - cough cough - defense of democracy.
A lot of reporting in alternative channels suggests that the German army planning and wargaming the use against Russian targets of German weaponry supported by, or even actually by, German military personel while Germany is not formally at war with Russia is somehow problematic. While the incident is obviously diplomatically a cause of embarrassment, it is realisticaly the task of any military to investigate and evaluate all scenarios (though I wonder if they ever wargame scenarios involving kicking the USA occupier out of German territory.)
The real scandal that I have seen hardly mentioned anywhere, except as hinted at by Russia's foreign minister Lavrov, is that the German military plans for deployment of Taurus cruise missiles expressly mentioned secrecy and official deniability. In other words, outside of the prying eyes of the German Bundestag and the German public. Now that would clearly be an unconstitutional act and may even be considered an act of treason.
It does not seem reasonable that wargaming acts of treason is part of the German army's mission. If the German body politic fails to investigate the hierarchical scope of this deep-reaching transgression or fails to respond appropriately and proportionally to it, the German people have all reason (as if they hadn't enough already) to revolt against a political class complicit in various acts of treason.
Obviously, the blatantly incompetent military officers who let themselves be eavesdropped should be court-martialled and sacked, and probably jailed. Such a stunning show of incompetence.
Posted by: Lurk | Mar 3 2024 15:37 utc | 4
Posted by: Lurk | Mar 3 2024 15:37 utc | 4
I can't see the Americans allowing that to happen.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Mar 3 2024 15:41 utc | 5
[email protected] offense, but so many people focus on the death count, on both sides, I find it a little ghoulish. And I'm not sure of the need to know, is it like a drive by gawk, or maybe a 'liar liar pants on fire' if the numbers are wrong, fudged, like specific post WW2 death counts for a specific group of people. Russia lost millions during the last take over attempt, what's a few hundred thousands deaths to protect your assets this time around....that is what the Western Oligarchs want. It's always about the Mammon and who was given the right by God to control that.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 3 2024 15:42 utc | 6
So Genocide Joe Biden ups the sanctions on the RF, all 27 EU countries agrred to up sanctions as well aloneg with the uk
The administration of US President Joe Biden has announced a fresh wave of economic sanctions against Russia ahead of the second anniversary of the country's "special military operation" in Ukraine.
The Treasury Department announced on Friday that it will impose 500 new sanctions on Moscow, which will notably target the Mir credit card system, set up by Russia to avoid reliance on US-based networks.
The department also said it was targeting investment funds and regional banks to target "Russia's core financial infrastructure."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 3 2024 15:44 utc | 7
target the Mir credit card system ... targeting investment funds and regional banks to target "Russia's core financial infrastructure
"all wars are bankster wars."
Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 3 2024 15:49 utc | 8
[email protected] was a stroke Military Diplomatic genius....
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 3 2024 15:50 utc | 9
An update on the Taurus leak. The following argument currently makes the most sense. Russia - like other countries - will have a great many recordings of Germany and others. Anything else would be strange in view of professional intelligence services. This only raises the question: why was this conversation published now of all times?
Firstly, because there were probably criminally few security precautions. This means that Russia can "safely" publicize the leak without revealing its more advanced eavesdropping methods and sources. After all, using Webex in a hotel is so negligent that it would probably not happen again in the Bundeswehr.
But the second point is the really important one. This ultimately sent a "message" to NATO. So far, NATO has always crossed "red lines", but Russia has always "turned a blind eye" and never held a NATO country directly responsible. In this case, Russia would have to assume a de facto act of war if countries such as the UK were actively involved in the sinking of Russian warships. This is apparently now a thing of the past. For Germany at least, this was something of a "yellow card": If the Crimean bridge were now actually destroyed with Taurus missiles, Russia would automatically be at war with Germany. And Germany would not be able to invoke NATO Article 5, as this only applies if the NATO country in question is attacked and does not attack itself.
But the warning is probably not even primarily directed at Germany. It can be assumed that Russia also has recordings of the much more active British or Polish countries. For them, the publication may have been something of a final "shot across the bow".
Posted by: xblob | Mar 3 2024 15:56 utc | 10
In case you missed it, German state TV for kids - ZDF Kinderkanal (KIKA) - tells our kids it's good to send Taurus sooner to UA better than later. Even the Scholz blaming has its place here.
https://youtube.com/shorts/kgsVFZXnkAE?si=_o6QiYUa-OO7Z_tR
WOLLT IHR DEN TOTALEN KRIEG, KINDER?
Posted by: Tortuosit | Mar 3 2024 16:03 utc | 11
As I mentioned before. Russia leaked the call because they view the massive attack on Crimea and the bridge as imminent.
The decision has already been taken at the highest level (Genocide Joe, Nuland, Brits, French and Germans)
There is no going back to these lunatics. Crimea will be a crater and the bridge will be at the bottom of the black sea.
The question now is what is Russia going to do?
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 3 2024 16:04 utc | 12
>Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 3 2024 15:42 utc | 6
>[email protected] offense, but so many people focus on the death count, on both sides, I find it a little ghoulish. And I'm not sure of the need to know,
Casualties are the very essence of a war of attrition, which is why every wants to know the numbers and why both sides (but especially the losing side) hide the numbers. Equipment can eventually be replaced (especially Ukrainian equipment losses, given the immense potential USA/NATO production capacity), but humans are in limited supply. If either side loses too many humans, they lose the war of attrition. There is also the issue of morale. Big losses might lead to social upheaval. That's what happened in 1917 after the big losses of the 1916 campaigns. You can forget all the other details and just look at casualty numbers to know the ultimate conclusion of this war.
However, both raw death count and raw permanent casualty counts only tell part of the story, because it also matters who is being lost plus some permanent casualties are not as bad as others. For example, a man who loses a leg below the knee then gets a prosthesis can still lead a full life. Different story for a quadriplegic.
Regarding who is lost, deaths of murderers and other violent criminals in the penal battalions are no big loss to society, whereas loss of a 35yo experienced pilot with many potential years of work ahead is a tremendous loss.
Posted by: anonposter | Mar 3 2024 16:06 utc | 13
2Plus 4 contract from 1990
.
In Russia they are preparing to terminate the treaty with the Federal Republic of Germany, which has been the basis for peace in the region for the last 35 years.
The reason: Contrary to the provisions of the treaty, German weapons are being used against Russia (as the legal successor to the USSR).
The document on the "Final regulation of relations with Germany" was signed in Moscow on September 12, 1990. It came into force in March 1991. It is also known as the "2 Plus 4 Treaty" - GDR and FRG plus USSR, France, Great Britain and USA.
Key position from Article 2:
Regarding the reunification of Germany, it was declared "that the united Germany will never use any of its weapons" and "that only peace will emanate from German soil."
Key position from Article 3:
This article stipulates the “renunciation of the production and possession of and control over nuclear, biological and chemical weapons”.
Key position from Article 5:
It was stipulated: "After the withdrawal of the Soviet armed forces from the area of today's German Democratic Republic and Berlin has been completed, German armed forces units can also be stationed in this part of Germany...", i.e. no foreign contingents and NATO troops can be stationed.
As a result, the treaty was valued more highly than a peace treaty.
The legal scholar Klaus Stern writes:
“An additional peace treaty is therefore neither planned nor does it make sense. Everything that a peace treaty should contain is therefore regulated. The two-plus-four treaty, by virtue of its content aimed at more than just peace, replaces any peace treaty with the war opponents.”
📌Editor’s note
The actions of the federal government are in total violation of this treaty. The question arises, what does it mean if Russia annuls this treaty?
This means that Germany de jure falls back under martial law after 1945. And there is no longer a peace treaty with Russia.
The consequences for Germany are unforeseeable. The federal government has done it! We are once again on the threshold of the annihilation of Germany - it didn't even take a NSDAP or a Hitler.
The traffic light, Pistorius, Baerbock, Scholz and other “funny characters” who are no longer funny, managed to do it faster than the Third Reich.
Source - 2+4 contract / German
https://www.1000documente.de/index.html?c=document_de&document=0046_zwe&object=translation&st=ZWEI%20PLUS%20VIER&l=de
Posted by: Ossi | Mar 3 2024 16:07 utc | 14
"In this case, Russia would have to assume a de facto act of war if countries such as the UK were actively involved in the sinking of Russian warships. This is apparently now a thing of the past. For Germany at least, this was something of a "yellow card": If the Crimean bridge were now actually destroyed with Taurus missiles, Russia would automatically be at war with Germany. And Germany would not be able to invoke NATO Article 5, as this only applies if the NATO country in question is attacked and does not attack itself.
But the warning is probably not even primarily directed at Germany. It can be assumed that Russia also has recordings of the much more active British or Polish countries. For them, the publication may have been something of a final "shot across the bow"."
Posted by: xblob | Mar 3 2024 15:56 utc | 10
Good insight, thanks.
Some interesting posts on current Ukrainian naval drones:
The age of big ships has not gone away, that’s true, comrade. Fisherman.You can point to simulacra like the “mosquito fleet” as much as you like, but their main merit lies in our outright failures.
Either the landing craft in the middle of the night, God knows, or the banal booms were installed for months.
A timely response to threats is necessary: increase the number of machine guns on board to combat the MBEC, put on board the required number of thermal imagers (not hunting), UAV operators and even FPV drones, to the horror of the valiant naval command. Everything is not certified and not accepted for service, and a non-standard machine gun on self-tapping screws/bolts can generally shock respected people.
It is unreasonable to talk about the “passing of an era” of large ships, because a ship is just a platform. Like old T-72s with thermal imagers and Tu-95MS with new equipment, the ships are capable and will carry out their assigned tasks if they are promptly prepared for modern challenges, and not write tons of crap on paper. Which no one reads yet.
1/2 Today we are reviewing the crown of Ukrainian shipbuilding, the unmanned boat Magura, named after the former bus driver, and now the President of Venezuela, Maduro. Magura is a very thin and flimsy mold of a boat, reinforced with boards from a nearby construction site and parts from a grandmother’s closet. The body is so fragile that it can be penetrated by firewood. Therefore, dead magura on the shore is not uncommon. The hatches are made from barrel lids. The engine compartment (MTO) is aluminum, integrated into the boat using construction nanofoam. The production is quite obscene, even for a disposable product. Between the MTO and the outer top cover there is a space that is blown through by two bags. There are boxes with equipment there. This solution simultaneously cleans the engine from fuel vapors and reduces the thermal heating of the boat cover = thermal visibility. Inside the engine compartment there is an almost unchanged Chinese jet ski. It is so unchanged that its instrument panel is fixed with glue inside the boat's hull and is viewed by a webcam (in the photo the instrument panel has already fallen off). The system for adjusting this telemetry by bending the plate through a specially trained slot is especially delightful. Magura communicates with the outside world using two Starlink antennas, as well as a satellite communication antenna from Kymeta. This set of communications tells us that not everything is going smoothly with Starlinks. Either they are banned, or they themselves die in the sea, but inside there are actually two full-fledged parallel communication channels implemented, + kUmeta. Another communication channel is the industrial dual-SIM cellular router RUT956. In the coastal zone (up to 40 km from the tower), it can cling to terrestrial mobile Internet. We assumed earlier that one of the modes of operation of sea drones is to approach the shore directly using GPS, pick up the mobile network there and then aim at the target in hand. The router has GPS, but its antenna input is not connected, but both mobile antenna inputs for both SIM cards are connected and there is a connection trace on the LAN2 connector. This means the router is still in use.
2/2 There is trash and waste in the on-board electronics. A surprising combination of assorted Chinese boards from alishkas, boxes, from plastic serial ones to home-made aluminum ones with rivets and sealant, with neat assembly on spacers and with tips (!!) on plates specially cut for blocks. Even for the goat video capture card EasyCap, costing 300 rubles (by the way, it is responsible for digitizing AI telemetry) there is a special plate with holes for ties. The basis of the boat's intelligence is a lot of raspberry pi pico breakout boards, shoved in all directions. The creators of this miracle clearly did not know how to use embedding, so they programmed each relay activation separately under Linux. There, literally every function is included on a separate RPi board! Even inside one box! 😭 The boards have an isolated CAN on the ADM3053, but none are connected to the jet ski ECU, and the telemetry is read by a camera. Autonomous orientation is performed on orangecube and pix. Most likely, only heading data is used to make it easier for the pilot to steer by hand. In marine conditions, the cube will not provide any long-term orientation. Streams of data from the Starlink Zoo flow into Mikrotik rb962. Most likely, control on Starlink is organized through tunnels, which is why the microt is located there. The pile of RPi wasn’t enough for them, so they also added some kind of PC to the center. Alas, they didn’t let me unscrew the cooler, so you can write in the comments what kind of computer it is. Thermal imaging camera from Flir, visible spectrum - another webcam, similar to looking at the tidy of a jet ski.The cost of such a magura is 250 kilobucks, just for a moment.
Actually, always remember that no matter how much pomp the Ukrainians present their product, inside there will be snot, drool, grandma’s closet and Mikrotik on tape.
Here the critic will exclaim: but it works! Why don't we?
Sometimes it works, efficiency is ~1:10. And we also have a fleet. What do crests have to drown with them?
And geraniums also work well for ports.But if suddenly people from the fleet are reading me, show the dragadmiral the anti-torpedo nets and grooves. Well, to be honest, it’s not funny anymore...
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 3 2024 16:17 utc | 16
Ukraine Weekly Update, 1st March 2024: May be Useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-cc1
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Mar 3 2024 16:18 utc | 17
Posted by: xblob | Mar 3 2024 15:56 utc | 10
British tankers might be the best way to respond Britain sinking Russian ships. Say, 4 tankers for Moskva, 1 tanker for Ropuchka, and 2 tankers for the missile frigate. Call it even again (for now).
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2024 16:19 utc | 18
@ 10
Re UK sinking Russian ships.
It is no accident that the Houthis have sank one UK ship. Then damaged another UK ship yesterday, so bad it had to drop anchor and be evacuated. Also the Houthis have sent that Uk destroyer running back to Europe after hitting it with drones.
WW3 is being fought on a global scale. It is Death by 1000 cuts in 1000 different places to nato.
Just because Russia has not retaliated directly against UK or other countries that have crossed red lines. Does not mean Russia is not doing so thru their proxies or in other countries. Like kicking France out of Africa.
Posted by: go;ddigger | Mar 3 2024 16:21 utc | 19
The conversation of German generals that was intercepted and also confirmed.
Whether Chancellor Scholz had it posted on social networks himself, i.e. it was NOT intercepted by Russians but German services, remains an open question?
It benefits the German Chancellor, who was under strong pressure within his own ranks, to release Tarus.
NOW things might be a little different!
Abstract :
The fact that Russia is not spreading disinformation, but that this conversation actually took place and was intercepted, was confirmed by the Ministry of Defense after some time. The inspector of the German Air Force Ingo Gerhartz, the head of the operations and training department Frank Gräfe in the Air Force Command in Berlin and employees of the Space Command named Fenske and Frohstedte were involved in the conversation.
How can Taurus missiles be delivered to Ukraine without becoming a party to the war?
According to the transcript published by Simonjan, Gerhartz said that no one knows why Chancellor Scholz is not delivering the Taurus to Ukraine. A lot of nonsense is being spread. Gerhartz wanted to know what consequences the political decision to deliver Taurus rockets could have, what problems existed and how they could be solved.
According to Gräfe, the Taurus rockets would only be ready for use after 8 months so that there would be no incorrect use. It would take 6 months just to attach the necessary attachments to a fighter aircraft, which the Ukrainians would have to do anyway. Training Ukrainians for maintenance and deployment would take 3-4 months. You could ask the British to help with this and provide them with databases, satellite images and planning stations.
Gerhartz interjected that training could be quicker, as we could see at Patriot. Fenske confirmed this, saying he expects it to be less than 12 weeks. The operation could then also be supported technically via a secure connection from Blüchel. However, the Bundeswehr appears to be having difficulties with a secure connection, as the intercepted conversation shows.
Gerhartz argued that such a direct connection between Büchel and Ukraine could cause politicians to worry about involvement in the war. But you could use the “trick” to process the information about the MBDA arms company in Schrobenhausen. You could send one or two specialists to him. The manufacturer of the Taurus rockets is Taurus Systems GmbH in Schrobenhausen, a joint venture between MBDA and Saab Dynamics.
Gräfe spoke out strictly against using such tricks. One had to ensure from the start that Germany did not become a warring party. You just have to imagine what happens when the press finds out that “our people” are in Schrobenhausen or that we are driving cars in Poland. That is unacceptable.
Fenske explained that the target information, which also includes satellite images, could also be transmitted to Poland or brought by car. Six hours after receiving the information, at best an aircraft could carry out the order. We need to think further about the organization of information transfer. The Ukrainians are already receiving satellite images from the Bundeswehr. Fenske announced that he would travel to Ukraine on February 21st, apparently to prepare for training.
Gerhartz said the Taurus would not change the course of the war. You can initially deliver 50 rockets. But this is a political matter, the British and French are now pushing Germany because they have already delivered Scalp and Storm Shadow missiles. But the Germans should “not add fuel to the fire like others are doing with Storm Shadow and Scalp.”
It is then discussed that there are two possible targets: ammunition depots and, above all, the Crimean bridge, which is difficult to hit because it is so small. You might have to use 10 or 20 rockets to destroy it. Everyone would know that the Ukrainians want to destroy the bridge. Only a short training period is required for the depots and a longer one for the bridge.
NATO personnel have long been working in Ukraine to provide military support
It emerges from the conversation that the Bundeswehr wants to support Ukraine in destroying the Crimean Bridge, even if it doesn't want to have anything to do with it directly, as the Chancellor explained. Scholz had already indicated that France and Great Britain have personnel in Ukraine to support the deployment of Storm Shadow and Scalp.
The fact that CIA employees have been in Ukraine for a long time and that the Ukrainian troops are being supplied with satellite and target data by the Pentagon was recently highlighted without being contradicted by the New York Times, even though it avoided talking specifically about Patriot, which also means Russian aircraft were said to have been shot down in Russian territory.
Repeatedly, the British could be asked to take on certain tasks when using Taurus missiles. It can also be concluded from this that British soldiers are active in Ukraine and that Great Britain - as well as France and the USA, and probably other NATO countries - have thus become a party to the war, even if the ground troops appear in civilian clothes. After asking whether Ukraine can do everything on its own, Gerhartz said it is known that in Ukraine “there are a lot of people in civilian clothes who speak with American accents.” At least they have the satellite images that also come from Germany.
Unlike some members of the traffic light coalition, the Chancellor doesn't want that. In fact, after the “Great Patriotic War” against the Nazis, it may be more provocative for Russians if German missiles attack Russian targets than if British or French ones do so. Medvedev also expanded on this:
“After all, our eternal enemies – the Germans – have become archenemies again. Look at how carefully and in detail the Krauts discuss attacks on our territory with long-range missiles, the selection of targets to hit and the most likely ways to inflict the greatest possible harm on our homeland and our people. Not to be forgotten is the use of false rhetoric about Germany's non-participation in the conflict. Who could have imagined this until recently? How can you respond to this diplomatically? I don't know it…"
It is also interesting how officers are trying to find ways and tricks for Pistorius to deliver Taurus, train Ukrainians and use the missiles without the Bundeswehr being directly involved in the operation. It is obvious that the Ukrainians will not only attack targets within Ukraine's 1991 borders with Taurus, as this also happened with the Patriot systems.
Putin's problem?
It is an open secret that experts and soldiers from NATO countries are working in Ukraine to provide military support to the country. It is not known whether they are involved in the warfare, but it is quite likely. The fact that Russia was able to eavesdrop on the conversation of the German officers - and this is probably not the only hack - is a big problem for the Bundeswehr, also in relation to its partners who may no longer trust it.
However, Putin has had the bigger problem for some time now, after one red line after another was crossed by the NATO states without Russia really reacting to it, apart from warnings. That's why the West is already arguing that we can move on quietly because Russia wouldn't dare take action against a NATO country or use nuclear weapons. This contradicts the widely propagated enemy image of imperialist Russia, which will attack other NATO countries after Ukraine's defeat, which is why Ukraine must be supported with all means possible.
But so far Putin has accepted any military support for Ukraine. But if it now becomes more and more publicly known that NATO states, through the participation of civilian soldiers and secret service employees, are directly supporting Ukraine with target data and in general in attacks with Western rockets and cruise missiles and are thus becoming parties to the war, then Putin, who is propagating that Russia is defending itself in Ukraine, the problem of showing weakness and just being stupid if nothing is done about it.
It is obvious that Russia cannot compete against a NATO weakened by the Ukraine war and therefore avoids a direct conflict. But if the attacks on Russia continue to increase and Western weapons are openly used, Putin will lose support in Russia if there is no military response. The uprising staged by Prigozhin was the first sign of this. By publishing the intercepted conversation between the German officers, the Russian leadership may have harmed itself - if only because the Bundeswehr now has to try to close the security gap. Simonjan may have gone too far here. The question is whether the publication was coordinated with the Kremlin. She says she received the recording from “comrades in uniform.”
.
These generals also confirmed that France and England are actively programming their cruise missiles in Ukraine!
Posted by: ossi | Mar 3 2024 16:24 utc | 20
https://t.me/milinfolive/117593
French AASM-250 gliding bombs were first used by Ukrainian aviation to strike the Avdiivka coke plant, controlled by the Russian Armed Forces.Ukrainian sources report this. Previously it was believed that the American JDAM-ER aerial bomb was used for the attacks.
Let us recall that earlier the Minister of the French Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu stated that from January 2024 it is planned to supply 50 AASM bombs to Ukraine every month.
And already at the end of February, speaking before the commission on issues of the French National Assembly, Lecornu added that Ukrainian MiG-29 and Su-24M aircraft were modernized for these aerial bombs.
The French AASM Hammer family consists of bombs weighing 250, 500 and 1000 kg with the ability to install rocket boosters and various target guidance systems.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 3 2024 16:27 utc | 21
Currently, Poseidon P-8A in its usual position over the Romanian Black Sea coast and FORTE10 Global Hawk also circling about 70 Nm below Yalta, Crimea.
GPS jamming is pretty heavy over the big chunk of North-Eastern Poland and most of central Baltic Sea.
And it is hard to say what is happening, but apparently also many SU-xx planes over the Black Sea - not a rumor but a direct info from the friend in the region.
Or a Kerch bridge goes boom again, or some soon to be decommissioned ship or some port gets damaged. But it is tense, as never before, except since Mariupol, says my buddy over there.
In any case, I hope they do not touch Sochi, where the World Youth Games are attended by more than 160 nations.
That would ignite a bigger conflict very quickly, guaranteed.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 3 2024 16:30 utc | 22
The Germans didn't leak that conversation. That's the kind of 4D chess that Internet commenters believe in. There is useful intel in that conversation, even though it was just discussion of a potential mission, in the limitations of the various missile systems, and the support/training for them.
Internet commenters think this is all a video game or a hackneyed Hollywood spy movie. High ranking military officials don't act that way. Neither do the German politicians. Plus Sholz can say what he means or hint at it, without having to release this sort of 40 minute call. Put down the Q-anon crack pipe.
Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 3 2024 16:33 utc | 23
Posted by: ossi | Mar 3 2024 16:24 utc | 20
"It is obvious that Russia cannot compete against a NATO weakened by the Ukraine war and therefore avoids a direct conflict."
Am I reading this right?
Russia, which has stomped the shit out of NATO / Ukraine is scared that NATO might jump in?
Posted by: Morongobill | Mar 3 2024 16:36 utc | 24
by Morongobill | Mar 3 2024 16:36 utc | 24
You are right. This is some major trolling there, by Russians.
A same as:
“Dear Mr. Joseph Biden, President of the United States of America!We, Russian Warriors, express our sincere gratitude to you for the Abrams tanks that the United States provides to Ukraine.
As you probably know, we receive bonuses for the destruction of these tanks. We kindly ask you to send more, as the ones already sent are very few, there are not enough for everyone. We have to spend a lot of time and effort to find them.We are ready to transfer 10% of the bonus to your "MIR" card for each tank destroyed. We believe you are a true patriot and the best president of America.We sincerely hope for mutually beneficial cooperation.
Together we will win.”
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 3 2024 16:45 utc | 25
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 3 2024 16:30 utc | 22
I was expecting a big PR move soon after the Adveeka route.
They, at least in Europe, relayed for a very long time on Navalny death.
It took a surprisingly long time for this wannabe big hit.
By the way the su-xx, if not russian are a legitimate target, let's how it plays out.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 3 2024 16:46 utc | 26
Warsaw is waging a “grain war” with Kiev, which is being carried out with the full support of the Polish authorities.
And this is a purely internal Polish case - the government’s position is not very strong, and with the support of farmers they are trying to “gain points” in the country and take the electorate away from Law and Justice.At the same time, the total losses of the state budget of Ukraine due to the blockade of checkpoints on the border with Poland have already amounted to 20 billion hryvnia (more than $523 million), of which 8 billion (more than $209 million) - in February of this year.
However, Ukrainian grain is a minor matter, because the Polish government, understanding the growing fatigue in society from the influx of Ukrainian refugees, wants to play this electoral card too. Thus, the Polish Cabinet of Ministers is working to tighten the rules for the stay of Ukrainians in Poland.
Among other things, it is offered:
▪️Cancel temporary protection for leaving for Ukraine: in this case, the state will record that the refugee considers staying in their homeland more dangerous than it does. Now travel is available for Ukrainians for 30 days.
▪️Cancel the “lift” for new arrivals in the amount of 300 zlotys.
▪️Check more carefully people who have payment arrears - many refugees do not compensate for half of the costs for accommodation and food in accommodation centers.It is noteworthy, but some evil tongues claim that this situation indicates that the Ukrainian authorities are simply “reaping the fruits” of their boorish relationship with Poland, having lost all the credits of trust received since 2022.
https://t.me/MediaKiller2021/11738
The grain war will go down in the history of relations between Ukraine and Poland, when our closest ally became the main economic enemy, and the question is not about big money or benefits. The Office of the President could not prevent this conflict and now any of the options is bad for Ukraine, it either quarrels our countries among themselves or the government abandons its farmers.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21881
The Poles, “brothers,” continue to harshly show the Ukrainians their place, blocking all checkpoints.They block everything, even military/humanitarian aid to Ukraine. This is being done in order to force Zelensky to agree to Warsaw’s conditions. This is called taking advantage of the situation and position and bending your “brother” at the most vulnerable moment for him, saving your “skin” and receiving excess profits. They just raise the stakes. Ze can’t do anything, he has driven himself and the whole country into a corner.
Even at the moment when Zelensky was showing off, we insided that the Poles would bend Kyiv and Vladimir Alexandrovich personally. Everything is leading up to this. Yes, we are right as usual.
What should have been done? The answer is simple, think not situationally, but strategically, like a statesman. Do not drive the country into a situation where you are dependent on someone, especially if this someone has long had interests in your territories and cities, but is waiting for the right moment when you can take a bite out of it at minimal cost. Or get it for free.
If the Minsk agreements had been implemented, this would not have happened.We are generally silent about the Istanbul Agreements; this may have been the last good chance, but someone set the whole country up because of their ambitions and desire to be popular.
https://t.me/legitimniy/17368
Posted by: Down South | Mar 3 2024 17:22 utc | 27
Over the last few days things have clearly escalated to uncharted territory.
NATO has put Russia in the tough position. Against the wall forced to declare war on NATO.
They have no choice. NATO has put them in a lock.
What will they do?
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 3 2024 17:24 utc | 28
Germany was accused of complicity in genocide at the International Court of Justice
.
Nicaragua has accused Germany of complicity in genocide in the Gaza Strip before the International Court of Justice.
Nicaragua had already announced that it would sue Germany before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for complicity in the genocide in Gaza. Now the country has filed the lawsuit. In a press release, the ICJ informs about the receipt of the lawsuit. It says:
“The applicant notes that “each and every Party to the Genocide Convention is obliged under the Convention to do everything possible to prevent the commission of genocide” and that as of October 2023 “there is a recognized threat of genocide against the Palestinian people, which directed primarily against the population of the Gaza Strip.” Nicaragua argues that by providing political, financial and military support to Israel and cutting funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), Germany “is facilitating the commission of genocide and in any case in its obligation “Failed to do everything possible to prevent the commission of genocide.”
Due to South Africa's lawsuit against Israel for genocide against the Palestinians, which is also being heard by the ICJ, the Court decided in an emergency decision at the end of January that it considers South Africa's lawsuit to be justified and called on Israel to prevent genocide. For this reason, Nicaragua speaks in its lawsuit against Germany of the “recognized danger of genocide against the Palestinian people.”
However, the main proceedings in South Africa's lawsuit are still pending. With Nicaragua's lawsuit, members of the current federal government would face legal consequences in the event of a decision by the ICJ in the main proceedings in favor of South Africa. It would be the first time that members of a German government would have to justify themselves in The Hague for supporting genocide and face punishment.
The WHO has just reported that over 30,000 civilians have fallen victim to Israeli aggression in Gaza, “the vast majority of whom are women and children.” In addition, “more than 70,000 Palestinians” were injured. An Israeli attack on civilians waiting for humanitarian aid to be distributed on February 29 alone left 150 dead and 1,000 injured.
.
Although all Western states have conducted this court absortum...especially the USA
Posted by: Ossi | Mar 3 2024 17:25 utc | 29
Our source reports that all the commanders who took their soldiers out of the Avdeevka stranglehold for a couple of hours in advance, thereby saving the personnel, were decided to be removed and made scapegoats.The culprit was not Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, who, together with his office officials, pursued situational political goals, sending soldiers into the Avdeevka meat grinder, but ordinary military officers who “sent the top” and saved their boys. Now they are being made extreme.
Syrsky will thus completely destroy the morale of the army. Zelensky fully supported Syrsky, showing that he does not support “combat soldiers and officers,” but the “staff riffraff” who are to blame for Avdeev’s failure.
https://t.me/legitimniy/17370
Posted by: Down South | Mar 3 2024 17:27 utc | 30
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 3 2024 17:24 utc | 28
Why?
Unless there is a real treat to Russia or the smo there is no need to declare any war.
It's nato that is cornered, because Ukraine is largely lost without intervention and will be probably lost even with nato intervention.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 3 2024 17:30 utc | 31
"...Put down the Q-anon crack pipe."
Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 3 2024 16:33 utc | 23
Amen.
Posted by: bevin | Mar 3 2024 17:31 utc | 32
Posted by: Morongobill | Mar 3 2024 16:36 utc | 24
.
It is obvious that Russia cannot compete against a NATO weakened by the Ukraine war and therefore avoids a direct conflict."
Am I reading this right?
Russia, which has stomped the shit out of NATO / Ukraine is scared that NATO might jump in?
Posted by: Morongobill | Mar 3 2024 16:36 utc | 24
.
.
I quoted a report in the German media!
Which doesn't necessarily correspond to my opinion!
I know that NATO is at the end when it comes to weapons, ammunition and soldiers!
But you will NEVER hear that in German media, at least I don't and I live in Germany, but I also know Russia and, yes, Ukraine for 12 years
Posted by: Ossi | Mar 3 2024 17:33 utc | 33
[email protected] issue with, for lack of a better word, 'crazy people', is they don't know they are crazy, and with how the western leaders speak out of both sides of their mouths with forked tongues, they are stark raving mad. Insane lunatics.
They have fought themselves into a corner and they are winning, or are to afraid to admit defeat. Any sane person would admit defeat.
Regardless of how many 'armies' Russia has defeated, Ukie NATO French German, the crazy people still have the atomic ace, right now the are doing test runs.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 3 2024 17:34 utc | 34
Headline from TASS:
Ukraine tries to disrupt early voting at Russian presidential election in Kherson RegionDespite Ukraine’s provocative actions, the early voting was held without violations and complaints from our voters, said chairperson of the regional election commission Marina Zakharova
Such attempts at disruption aren't new, but I hadn't realized that the aforementioned chairperson has the same surname (and the same forename except for one added phoneme) as the Director of Communication and Press for Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Does anyone know whether they're related?
Posted by: David Levin | Mar 3 2024 17:35 utc | 35
according to telegram channel, https://t.me/s/ZandVchannel Canada is now willing to send "non combat troops" to Ukraine for training purposes.. Seems like more and more "trial balloons" are being sent up. IMHO, it's because of the dire straits the AFU finds itself in. I believe, sadly, that NATo forces will be sent into Ukraine as "peace keepers", non combat role. Possibly some of the NATO troops involved in those exercises will sent in. There was speculation that they would guard the border of Ukraine and Belarus, freeing up 100,00 + Ukies to be sent to the front lines. I really hope this doesn't happen, but if it does, Russia needs to hammer any foreign troops hard no matter where they are or what they are doing..
Posted by: ctiger | Mar 3 2024 17:39 utc | 36
Here, an expert on the French scene talks for 10 minutes and 1 second about Macron's plan to "create a strategic dilemma for Russia."
It's nice to find out what's going on behind the scenes - with our money in our name but without our knowledge.
“Paris is considering allowing special forces and other military units to cross the Ukrainian border.” – Le Monde
– Commandement des Opérations Spéciales (COS) / Special Operations Command
– Groupement des Commandos Parachutistes (GCP) / Commando Parachute Group
– 2e régiment étranger de parachutistes (REP)
– Marine Commando
– 13e Régiment de Dragons Parachutistes (RTP) / 13th Parachute Dragoon Regiment (reconnaissance and subversive warfare)
[https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commando_marine]
Posted by: Ossi | Mar 3 2024 17:41 utc | 37
" Hey b, no separate topic on the eavesdropped Luftwaffe oficers discussing the deplyment of Taurus cruise missiles? I'm kind of surprised since it's a big scandal in many ways.
Posted by: Lurk | Mar 3 2024 15:37 utc | 4 "
B is in Germany, I think hes being very careful right now on.
Posted by: Moonie | Mar 3 2024 17:52 utc | 38
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 3 Mar 2024 by 19:29⚡️🔻#Kherson Direction:
🟡In the #Kherson Sector, at #Antonovsky Bridge, there are still AFU groups.
🟡In the #Tyaginka Sector, the AFU maintains a presence in #Krynki and at Cossack Camps. Their drones are still active.
📌 So far, our team has not been able to completely knock out the enemy.🔻#Zaporozhye Direction:
🟡In the #Orekhov Section, the AFU are actively pulling up reserves for #Rabotino. Swarms of Ukrainian FPV drones are also flying there. The AFU is conducting remote mining, artillery is not silent. Our drone operators have already stopped a AFU counterattack. Our army, in turn, continues to move carefully along the flanks. Our Aerospace Forces are using RBK-500 cluster munitions. The impact of such a bomb turned the landing at #Novoprokopovka, where the AFU were hiding, into a lunar landscape. Admittedly, ours have not used such ammunition for a long time. But the transfer and active use of Western cassettes by the AFU left no choice.🔻#SouthDonetsk Direction:
🟡On the #Vremyevka Ledge, our forces hit a number of AFU positions in the plantings near #Urozhaynoye with an accurate strike by FABs. Now this is grey zone.
🟡In the #Maryinka Sector, ours troops made serious progress in #Georgiyevka in the centre of the village behind the Maryinsky Dam by almost 1 km, reaching the outskirts of the St. George Ponds. There is also progress in #Novomikhailovka, fierce battles are ongoing.🔻#Avdeyevka Direction:
🟡In the #Orlovka Sector, the AFU are still holding back our offensive. And this is not only the merit of the large reserves pulled up to the villages almost taken by ours, but also a number of our own miscalculations. The enemy publishes footage of our attack in #Berdychi, when the troops land in the village virtually without fire support and immediately fall under enemy fire. The price of underestimating the enemy is the lives of our military.🔻#Bakhmut Direction:
🟡In the #ChasovYar Sector, the fighting for the heights north of #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye) continues unabated. The village itself is grey zone. The AFU regularly counterattacks, but ours are pushing them to the outskirts. Strikes on the AFU reserves in Chasov Yar, #Grigorovka and #Bogdanovka are also continuing.🔻#Svatovo Direction:
🟡In the #Seversk Sector, our forces expanded the control zone south of the water facility industrial zone, approached the "White Mountain", the AFU fortified area at the chalk quarry (at #Belogorovka, I assume). Fierce fighting is ongoing, and at times the enemy counterattacks, trying to penetrate the industrial zone.
🟡In the #Liman Sector, info about the entry of our groups into #Terny is ahead of events. Our military is fighting in the beams a few km from the village. The fighting is heavy and so far without significant success.
🟡In the #Kupyansk Sector, an AFU speaker said that our forces have reduced the activity of attacks. On the ground it is indeed less active, but our Aerospace Forces are destroying pontoon crossings across #Oskol, hitting clusters and headquarters in the area. So our army has the initiative, they simply act smartly and, perhaps, prepare for attacks☠️ The AFU attack last night by 38 drones on the Crimean #Feodosiya, was repelled by our the air defence. After that, #NATO intelligence was actively working on the Black Sea. So after this massive drone raid on #Crimea, missile attacks are not excluded.
https://t.me/sitreports/23942
Posted by: Down South | Mar 3 2024 17:59 utc | 39
Against the background of a published conversation between German generals about the attacks on the Crimean Bridge the NATO Air Force entered the territory of Ukraine to practice strikes on CrimeaTwo F 16s and one F 35. The planes simulated missile strikes from the territory of the Mykolaiv region in the Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. Among other things, Patriot air defense systems and 3 mobile radars in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions actively accompanied these three aircraft.
In addition to practicing strikes on the Crimea, the F 35 aircraft actively tried to track the location of Russian radars and radar on the front line.
The entire operation lasted about 32 minutes, after which all the planes left Ukrainian airspace.
We have already written that American fighters will be based in Romania. The peculiarity of the F-16 is their "capriciousness" The runway needs to be perfectly smooth. There are no such in Ukraine.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 17:59 utc | 40
@ Posted by: Comandante | Mar 3 2024 17:24 utc | 28
“ What will they do?“
Good question.
My guess : NO FLY ZONE.
Over the whole of the ukraine.
Natzio pilots will appreciate not going on kamikaze missions. The End.
————————————
It being a slowish news day, spring cleaning outside, high pollen, cold, no sermon today. Hot bath, dinner in the oven.
Time to catch up with MoA’s Sunday postings, thanks b.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 3 2024 18:02 utc | 41
Posted by: Tortuosit | Mar 3 2024 16:03 utc | 11
Peter komma der - Frühlingslied
Posted by: slothrop_tyrone | Mar 3 2024 18:03 utc | 42
… (TG) NATO Air Force entered the territory of Ukraine to practice strikes on Crimea … Two F 16s and one F 35. …
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 17:59 utc | 40
It was interesting that the claimed Bundeswehr intercept had one of the officers suggesting the French Rafale jet as a delivery platform, presumably on the grounds that it could operate much closer to opposing AD installations.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 3 2024 18:12 utc | 43
" Russia would automatically be at war with Germany. And Germany would not be able to invoke NATO Article 5, as this only applies if the NATO country in question is attacked and does not attack itself.
Posted by: canuck | Mar 3 2024 16:13 utc | 15 "
How would Russia attack Germany without going over some other NATO country's territory ? If they did that it would be considered an " attack" on said nation, meaning article 5 would be implemented.
You're underestimating the enemy's plans, a fatal mistake most times.
Posted by: Moonie | Mar 3 2024 18:20 utc | 44
"Why?
Unless there is a real treat to Russia or the smo there is no need to declare any war."
Umm if 100 missiles are fired into crimea destroying lots of infrastructure including the bridge. You still will claim there is no threat to Russia? Seriously?
A massive attack has already been planned. It's just a matter of when.
When that happens what will Russia do?
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 3 2024 18:21 utc | 45
What will they do?
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 3 2024 17:24 utc | 28
---
Russia has very clearly enunciated that they will strike locations where threats originate.
Isn't Moldova a lucky ducky!
Posted by: too scents | Mar 3 2024 18:22 utc | 46
How would Russia attack Germany without going over some other NATO country's territory ? If they did that it would be considered an " attack" on said nation, meaning article 5 would be implemented.You're underestimating the enemy's plans, a fatal mistake most times.
Posted by: Moonie | Mar 3 2024 18:20 utc | 44
kaliningrad - northsea - germany. easy.
article 5 is not a "all must now go to war" guarantee. read it first.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 3 2024 18:23 utc | 47
" Russia would automatically be at war with Germany. And Germany would not be able to invoke NATO Article 5, as this only applies if the NATO country in question is attacked and does not attack itself.
Posted by: canuck | Mar 3 2024 16:13 utc | 15 "
"How would Russia attack Germany without going over some other NATO country's territory ? If they did that it would be considered an " attack" on said nation, meaning article 5 would be implemented.
Posted by: xblob | Mar 3 2024 15:56 utc | 10
Good insight, thanks.
Posted by: canuck | Mar 3 2024 16:13 utc | 15
However, I do agree with xblob.
"You're underestimating the enemy's plans, a fatal mistake most times."
Posted by: Moonie | Mar 3 2024 18:20 utc | 44
Moonie, you are sloppy- try harder to get your post right.
Thanks.
NATO has obviously gamed every scenario and the best one is giving Russia a bloody nose in Crimea. That will stop it in its tracks and they will have to decide on the response.
Obviously Russia has gamed every response and most likely already knows the proper response.
But what is it? I have no idea
All we know is things have escalated to scary levels.
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 3 2024 18:30 utc | 50
A map of the possible deployment of the NATO military contingent has appeared...
https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/2047
I have no idea where this stuff comes from, "On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog" applies, but it's interesting. NATO is very much encircling and isolating Belarus, to prevent troops there joining the SMO or to attack it extending the front against Russia? I'm also suspicious of the Masno channel, could be a pro UKR site masquerading as pro RF, still it's one of the few place to catch stuff (usually ugly) that the RF channels hide.
Then there's this:
The NATO Sea. Lithuanian Ambassador to Sweden Linkevicius promised to "neutralize" Kaliningrad:"After Sweden was integrated into the Alliance, the Baltic Sea became an internal NATO sea. If Russia dares to challenge NATO, Kaliningrad would be "neutralized" first. Russia's previous false accusations that it is surrounded by NATO are now becoming a reality."
NATO is forging ahead, I see no signs it's wavering and looking for a way out. Only hope I see is the Russians keep buying time for the pitchforks and guillotines in EU, UK, and USA to hopefully turn things around, at the very least spray everything with enough cow shit to give everyone the dry heaves.
This is also interesting, too bad RFkjr is as inconsistent as Trump, only better manners and not having the attention span of a 6y/o separate him from Trump. My guess he was put in the race from the start only to steal votes from Trump. Still, these are worthy words to mobilize the pitchforks:
US presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr.:Yes, they [the Germans] are furious because we blew up the Nord Stream pipeline and deindustrialized Germany. And this is a completely different problem.
What are we doing in Ukraine? Let's establish peace there. Let's bring Russian gas back to Europe so that we can reindustrialize Germany, reindustrialize Europe. Let's keep our gas at home and use it to produce and reindustrialize America. Let's rebuild our industrial base at home.
This is the best way to do it, with cheap gas. You know, it's a choice. Boycott Russian gas. They still get it as liquefied natural gas. [We don't know who blew up the Nord Stream. I know that many people suspect the United States. And you think so too]. Yes, of course, we blew up the Nord Stream pipeline.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 18:32 utc | 51
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 3 2024 18:21 utc | 45
That's a big if.
As I've stated it depends on the treat.
100 missiles aimed at Crimea could well be a treat to Russia or smo but first Nato has to use them.
Actually is nothing but paper.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 3 2024 18:35 utc | 52
anon2020 @ 43
Maria Zakharova writes:I've read it again [the conversation of German officers]! Just think, the modern German leadership refers to the experience of the Third Reich! Yes, they have already gone insane!
Inspector (Commander) of the German Air Force Ingo Gerhartz in a conversation with senior Bundeswehr officers on February 19, 2024:
“We are now fighting a war that uses much more modern technology than our good old Luftwaffe.”
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/90357
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 18:35 utc | 53
"according to telegram channel, https://t.me/s/ZandVchannel Canada is now willing to send "non combat troops" to Ukraine for training purposes.. Seems like more and more "trial balloons" are being sent up. IMHO, it's because of the dire straits the AFU finds itself in. I believe, sadly, that NATo forces will be sent into Ukraine as "peace keepers", non combat role. Possibly some of the NATO troops involved in those exercises will sent in. There was speculation that they would guard the border of Ukraine and Belarus, freeing up 100,00 + Ukies to be sent to the front lines. I really hope this doesn't happen, but if it does, Russia needs to hammer any foreign troops hard no matter where they are or what they are doing.."
Posted by: ctiger | Mar 3 2024 17:39 utc | 36
I can only surmise that this sending 'non combat troops' to Ukraine from the Empires satellite- my sad Sovereign - is but a negotiating ploy to reach a better settlement.
Otherwise it makes no sense-if they were going to seriously mobilize they are about 26 months too late.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 18:32 utc | 51
The map of Nato deployment in Ukraine came from some NAFO chief troll on twitter.
However, considering Nafo is funded primarily by US state department, it means the plan could have leaked to a Nafo troll who then spread it.
Whether this particular plan is real or not, they are probably planning something like that.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2024 18:44 utc | 55
Also the Houthis have sent that Uk destroyer running back to Europe after hitting it with drones.
Posted by: go;ddigger | Mar 3 2024 16:21 utc | 19
Was there ever actually proof of this?
Posted by: BT | Mar 3 2024 18:52 utc | 56
Putin drew a big 'red line' should NATO combat forces enter the Ukraine to fight Russia. Biggest question now for NATO, did he draw it in Permanent Marker or Crayola Crayons.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 3 2024 18:55 utc | 57
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 3 2024 18:55 utc | 57
judging by all those dead "mercenaries" so far, he used a chisel to write it on a stoneslate.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 3 2024 19:01 utc | 58
LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 18:32 utc | 51
The victop55 channel definitely pro Russia. a Russian based in Belarus.
One Russian channel I do check on daily as it often covers a lot of ground, links to western media articles, various meetings and so forth.
Other than that I have stopped reading Russian channels as they are focused primarily on the small war which I do not blame them for doing so.
The big war is the utter defeat of Nato and destruction of US power in the world. The Ukraine conflict can never be fully resolved until the destruction of US power and Nato is achieved.
Ukraine is a war designed to bleed Nato white while improving Russia's own economy and military strength, rather than the conquest of territory.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 3 2024 19:02 utc | 59
" Moonie, you are sloppy- try harder to get your post right.
Thanks.
Posted by: canuck | Mar 3 2024 18:29 utc | 49 "
Addressing my point would be more constructive to the conversation then poor attempts at comedy. You're welcome.
Posted by: Moonie | Mar 3 2024 19:08 utc | 60
The glide kits for the FAB range of bombs have proved something of a game changer on the small war front lines.
A small town that Russian forces recently moved into had a narrow hardened defence line guarding the eastern approach. Four fab 500's utterly destroyed that line of defence and allowed Ru forces access to the town.
FAB's with glider kit and precision targeting are taking the role of very heavy duty close air support.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 3 2024 19:11 utc | 61
" kaliningrad - northsea - germany. easy.
article 5 is not a "all must now go to war" guarantee. read it first.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 3 2024 18:23 utc | 47 "
Look at the location of kaliningrad on the map and then re-read my point. Additionally, I see people like to talk in circles here. For instance.
" article 5 is not a "all must now go to war" guarantee. "
and then in the same breath they state
" Russia must not do anything to give the US the excuse to go to war as thats what the US wants "
So which one is it Justpassinby ?
Posted by: Moonie | Mar 3 2024 19:14 utc | 62
In response to
"
We have already written that American fighters will be based in Romania. The peculiarity of the F-16 is their "capriciousness" The runway needs to be perfectly smooth. There are no such in Ukraine.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/102796
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 17:59 utc | 40
"
Thanks for that confirmation of my guess about how the NATO F16s might get used......from outside of Ukraine. If this happens, I expect to only happen once and then the air base that the plane came from and associated command centers will be obliterated.
If Russia has their A50 planes operational I expect they will see the plane(s) making the runs take off.
This shows how close to capitulation that the Ukraine military is......its show time!
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 3 2024 19:14 utc | 63
Like I've said before these clowns in government are intent on making their citizens lives harder, poorer and poverty will become far more widespread, with Biden, the EU 27 and the UK announcing more sanctions against Russia, this time the excuse is the death of the CIA/Mi6 puppet Navalny, Russia is now retaliating in kind, and it we (The public across Europe that will suffer because of these sanctions)
Our Western governments don't give a toss about our welfare, and that is becoming clearer by the day.
"Russia has withdrawn from a decades-old fishing deal with the UK, following an announcement by Britain of new sanctions against Moscow.
Russia banned British fisherman from fishing in the Barents Sea. It was after the lower house of Russia’s parliament passed the relevant legislation on Wednesday.
Russia’s parliamentary speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said, “He [President Vladimir Putin] returned our fish to us, because the English, shameless, had been eating it for 68 years. They have imposed sanctions on us, while they themselves make up 40% of their diet, their fish menu, from our cod. Let them now lose some weight.”
On the same day, the UK imposed sanctions on six officials at the head of the Siberian penal colony where Alexei Navalny, Russia’s opposition leader died last week.
“The agreement was unfortunately one-sided giving the authority and right to fish only to our partners at the time,” Deputy Agriculture Minister Maksim Uvaidov said. He added that the agreement didn’t provide Soviet fishermen with similar rights.
British vessels caught 556,000 tonnes of cod and haddock in Russian waters in 2023 alone.
Last year, Sky News reported that up to 40% of cod and haddock consumed in the UK comes from Russia and the Russian territory. "
_____________________________________________
Oh and this from the Zionist genocide loving English PM, who's determined to cause us more pain and suffering in an economic sense and possibly in a physical sense if the keeps poking the Russian Bear.
"UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said that allied Western countries supporting Ukraine "must be bolder" in seizing frozen Russian assets.
In an op-ed run by The Sunday Times, Sunak called on the Group of Seven (G7) nations to find a “lawful way” to seize more frozen Russian assets and pass the proceeds over to Ukraine's government to aid its forces fighting against Russian troops.
“We must be bolder in hitting the Russian war economy … And we must be bolder in seizing the hundreds of billions of frozen Russian assets,” he insisted.
Allied Western countries began freezing Russian assets shortly after Russia began its special military operation in eastern Ukraine in 2022.
They have gathered about $600 billion in frozen Russian assets and funds; however, efforts to pass the money over to Ukraine have created legal issues, raising concerns over precedent, as well as the future of Ukraine’s economy."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 3 2024 19:14 utc | 64
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 18:35 utc | 53
More like a commentary on the unpreparedness of the current German airforce (Luftwaffe) than any neo-Nazi sentiments being expressed. The Germans did though make repeated attempts to bomb Remagen Bridge, finally badly damaging it, but by then it was too late, similar to the Kerch Bridge today.
Posted by: Milites | Mar 3 2024 19:17 utc | 65
" “The agreement was unfortunately one-sided giving the authority and right to fish only to our partners at the time,” Deputy Agriculture Minister Maksim Uvaidov said. He added that the agreement didn’t provide Soviet fishermen with similar rights.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 3 2024 19:14 utc | 64 "
Which begs the question, why would the Soviets agree to such an insult ?
Posted by: Moonie | Mar 3 2024 19:17 utc | 66
Peter AU1 @ 59
victop55 is absolutely credible and solid, and wound up, he might be Medvedev's little brother. The Masno channel is the one I'm suspicious of, but at least it finds individual stuff to post rather than just regurgitate like 95% of the others. Wonder where the few SMO tidbits of info and vids that go round and round start life??? MoD and AFU, so we in the peanut gallery are actually limited to the Popcorn, Goobers, and Raisinettes from the concession stand, at least it keeps us out of trouble.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 19:23 utc | 67
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 18:35 utc | 53
The German Air Force is the Luftwaffe. They simply admit that they are outmatched technologically.
Posted by: kspr | Mar 3 2024 19:26 utc | 68
Three Nato aircraft entered Ukraine for the first time though only for a short time near the black sea. Possibly a direct attack by Nato operating from Romania on the Crimean bridge is on the cards.
There has also been the recent fuss around Transnistria.
Also Putin's warnings to Europe.
Nato now require a major propaganda win, particularly European Nato and European elite. The Crimean bridge may well be where Nato escalate and become direct participants in the conflict.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 3 2024 19:29 utc | 69
by anon2020 | Mar 3 2024 18:12 utc | 43
Rafale is a now a native platform for French SCALP as it has a "bridge" that enables live data and programming. Mirage except few BLOCK 5 examples is mainly outdated for it. SU-24 is just improvised launch platform that can launch pre-programmed missiles, although Storm Shadow is in testing to be somehow ground launched. Typhoon is TAURUS ready, but also can do SS and SCALP. CAPTOR radar on all those frames is glowing for hundreds of miles, also the heat signature is pretty big.
I do not see those encroaching on Russia better than any other air-frame.
No USAF plane can launch any of those missiles.
Also the maximum range of both F/GB systems is 550 km, trimmed export version apparently down to 280 km.
TAURUS is capable of hitting the targets at around 520 km.
Apart from better RADALT (radar keeping the altitude steady) and TERCOM (terrain contour matching) it is not some 'never seen killer machine', or a 'wunderwaffe' destroying the Moscow, Kazan and Tula factories.
It is all BS, as nothing in NATO's inventory will help Ukraine. It'll just make RF more agile and prone to neutering anything NATO throws at them. Probably planes are next to figure out, thus letting them fly near and about is just a data collecting session.
On this field, I am not concerned at all, that RF will outshine NATO.
Ground-ops are different thing, where despite grinding and progressing, RF is not as fast as, I think, they intended to be at this stage.
In the WWII, at the peak of the speed of liberating Ukraine and Belorus, Red Army made 100 km in a 12 days somewhere and somewhere the double of that in 3-5 weeks. Such fast progress is possible today, as logistics should be capable of handling it. There were no transport helicopters and air-drops 80 years ago, still Red Army crossed Dnieper river at the width of 2 km with wooden pontoon bridges and barges.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 3 2024 19:41 utc | 70
The proper response to a bloody nose at the Kerch bridge (by the Russians) is to just soldier on. They have had to eat shit before. Look at Nord Stream. The Russians are not hysterical female Western politicians to need to make an immediate response, for public consumption and for false pride.
I predict they would just keep grinding in the Donetsk. Use the overland route for Crimea supply. Repair the bridge (unless it's deemed that the West can take it out again easily). But basically just keep fighting the war in the East. The counteroffensive was a way more serious threat to Crimea than the Kerch bridge PR show. It's like losing ships. Or even Nord Stream. Not good...but still not decisive to the war in the Donetsk. And nothing Russia can do directly about it.
And yes, I think the Russians would soldier on also, if Transnistria was taken also. At the end of the day, that's a very hard to supply garrison, that is in peril. And the Russians are not 17 year old girls learning to drive stick shift. They will just take the lump and keep pounding in the important area.
Now...if NATO started more openly fighting inside Ukraine...that would be...interesting. I doubt it happens. But I'm absolutely understanding of why they float the implicit threat. It's the same reason Putin floats the implicit nuclear threat. Both sides want to flex a little to say how they won't accept losing. But the fact that the West is the one doing it now, shows the West is losing now. BTW, I predicted this public trial balloon step months ago. It was a logical outcome once we realized the counteroffensive failed and that Ukraine was on the back foot.
Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 3 2024 19:43 utc | 71
RF is not as fast as, I think, they intended to be at this stage.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 3 2024 19:41 utc | 70
---
I have the feeling that pace is slowed by synchronizing a broad movement. Waiting on a crescendo where the entire frontline peaks at once.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 3 2024 19:48 utc | 72
In the WWII, at the peak of the speed of liberating Ukraine and Belorus, Red Army made 100 km in a 12 days somewhere and somewhere the double of that in 3-5 weeks. Such fast progress is possible today, as logistics should be capable of handling it. There were no transport helicopters and air-drops 80 years ago, still Red Army crossed Dnieper river at the width of 2 km with wooden pontoon bridges and barges.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 3 2024 19:41 utc | 70
That also included large casualties. The old adage about the ratio of attacking forces to defending forces. In general, during the long retreat back to Germany, Germany still achieved a good casualty ratio.
It seems that with today's ISR, WWII style offensives have become suicidal as with the Ukraine southern offensive.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 3 2024 19:51 utc | 73
Adding: too scents | Mar 3 2024 19:48 utc | 72
How many uncommitted forces does the RF have? Somewhere between 200'000 and 400'000 troops? More?
Posted by: too scents | Mar 3 2024 19:53 utc | 74
too scents | Mar 3 2024 19:53 utc | 74
The figures I have heard in the past for uncompleted/reserve troops for the Ukraine front is usually up closer to the 400,000 than 200,000.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 3 2024 20:01 utc | 75
Anonymous | Mar 3 2024 19:43 utc | 71
Nato aircraft launching from Nato airfields to attack Russian targets, I think will be taken by Russia as direct Nato participation. Currently Nato uses the fig leaf of launching attacks from Ukraine territory and Ukraine uniforms to keep it a proxy war.
Western military aircraft undercarriages and engine air intake are precious petals that are not designed for battlefield runways.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 3 2024 20:06 utc | 76
Biggest question now for NATO, did he draw it in Permanent Marker or Crayola Crayons.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 3 2024 18:55 utc | 57
Just to point out both are permanent!
Posted by: jpc | Mar 3 2024 20:07 utc | 77
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 3 2024 18:32 utc | 51
Unless I’m mistaken, the long running Masno channel was recently shut down, in a way that suggested he’d been busted. The original Masno TG “NovichokRossiya” was reset and started anew by someone who claimed to not be the original author, it now has hardly any content or subscribers. The one you link is TG “ Novichok_Rossiya_2” which actually does look like the original author starting from scratch on the same lines as before.
It was a place to find things that were only hinted at or not covered at all in the overtly pro Russian channels but which subsequently turned out to be true. There’s bound to be some plausible rubbish slip through when attempting to tread that line.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 3 2024 20:10 utc | 78
https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/1263
The number of victims as a result of yesterday's UAV crash on a residential building on Piskarevsky Prospekt in St. Petersburg has increased to eight. Previously, six casualties were reported.The lack of reaction to this incident by President V. Putin is surprising. At least purely human.
After all, Leningrad-St. Petersburg is his hometown. He was born there, his parents and his brother, who died during the siege, are buried there. He is connected with this city by a thousand threads and has always emphasized this. All the years of his presidency. And then an extraordinary incident occurred, unprecedented since the time of the blockade, war came to his hometown, and the native St. Petersburg pretended that he did not notice it. This is wrong, Vladimir Vladimirovich, wrong!In this regard, the English proverb comes to mind: “In the house of a hanged man there is no talk of rope.”
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 3 2024 20:11 utc | 79
Also the Houthis have sent that Uk destroyer running back to Europe after hitting it with drones.
Posted by: go;ddigger | Mar 3 2024 16:21 utc | 19
Posted by: BT | Mar 3 2024 18:52 utc | 56
No, that didn't happen, but they do appear to have drained that destroyer's missile magazines. Almost as good.
Posted by: Ed4 | Mar 3 2024 20:16 utc | 80
What possible reason would there be to invade further?
The Red Army suffered millions of casualties in pushing the Nazis all the way back to where they started from.
It lead to occupation of Eastern European peoples who were not exactly enamoured by decades of occupation.
I’ll stick to my prediction- no dumb , bloody big arrows, even if incited. Which is what the natzio plan is now.
To tell that ‘story’, the need to self isolate behind a new iron curtain. To keep us the smug docile idiot propagandised Western Europeans insulated from the benefits of being part of a POLYCENTRIC world.
The latest Hollywood reimagining story is already in the pipeline, even before the SMO ends! Shelensky biopic. The Price of Victory!
Das Bunker without admitting the same nazis being defeated by the same Red Army 🤡 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 3 2024 20:20 utc | 81
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 3 2024 20:10 utc | 78
The Masno channel owner at some point told (or implied) living in Ukraine and in a location where he could 'hear/see' relative close events on the front.
As far as the Rezident/Legitimny channels go, someone said they might be channels of the banned opposition in Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2024 20:27 utc | 82
Hey b, no separate topic on the eavesdropped Luftwaffe oficers discussing the deplyment of Taurus cruise missiles? I'm kind of surprised since it's a big scandal in many ways.Posted by: Lurk | Mar 3 2024 15:37 utc | 4 "
B is in Germany, I think hes being very careful right now on.Posted by: Moonie | Mar 3 2024 17:52 utc | 38
Yes, I am aware of his residence and nationality. All the more reason to challenge him on this subject. Note that I did not link to the (supressed in Germany) leaked audio, nor asked him to link to it.Specifically I inquired about the implications in light of the Bundesverfassung (German constitution.)
Unlike the USA, which has a semblance of a half decent constitution, but which has ever increasingly been ignored by the executive powers for a long time, and the UK, which has but a feeble illusion of a rule of law, where instead the wanton word of the crown is final and when it has been spoken, can more often than not never be mentioned publicly.
In contrast, the Federal Republic of Germany has a modern and clear constitution and Germany has for half a century worked diligently to uphold it in its customary Grundlich fashion. Remember that Germany refused to join the coalition of the willing warcriminals in the wake of the events on September 11 2001.
Recently however, the course of the German ship of state has changed noticeably. The Nordstream pipeline sabotage and the subsequent German (non-)response is not a new phenomenon. Already the revelation of the extensive and invasive wiretapping of then Bundeskanzlerin Merkel by the USA and, more significantly, the media supression and memoryholing of that incident set the pace. A pace that has only been accelerating ever since.
The question here is: how much are the Germans willing to take from the USA (specifically up the arse, with steadily increasing violence.)
So that explains the gist of my question to b, a German who we all have come to know on this blog as a person of respectable discernment in these matters. Regardlessly, I would gracefully respect his decision to decline, without given notice or personal reasons, providing direct answers to these hotly burning questions.
And of course I am equally interested in the thoughts of the barflies, many of whom have been sharing valuable insights and wisdoms. It is what makes this such a fine watering hole in mediascape that has been desertifying at an alarming pace. (Unsurprisingly the same media that has deserted us will assure us that it is uniquely caused by climate change, and that we hoi polloi are entirely to blame for this state.)
Posted by: Lurk | Mar 3 2024 20:32 utc | 83
The Taurus conversation leak is amazing if you look at it.
Either two fairly senior army officers are discussing some serious operational matters , in the clear on a public network ( this seems unlikely unless they have completely lost the plot)
Or, they they thought they were on a secure system that isnt.
Posted by: Yarpos | Mar 3 2024 20:38 utc | 84
What possible reason would there be to invade further?
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 3 2024 20:20 utc | 81
It's not about a few fields east of the Dnieper. The operation was successful if NATO and the EU go deeper and deeper into the swamp, come back from Ukraine with a bloody nose, black eyes and burnt hair and, after this experience, avoid confrontation with Russia for the next years and have learned to respect the security interests of Russia.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Mar 3 2024 20:39 utc | 85
What possible reason would there be to invade further? The Red Army suffered millions of casualties in pushing the Nazis all the way back to where they started from. It lead to occupation of Eastern European peoples who were not exactly enamoured by decades of occupation.Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 3 2024 20:20 utc | 81
The Red Army's mistake was that they only Kaliningradized Kaliningrad.
Should have done it in Finland and the whole of Germany they controlled, plus what is now northern Poland too.
But the US had the bomb, and they didn't.
The result is:
https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/1245
Returning to the problem of a possible blockade of the Kaliningrad region, I would like to draw the attention of dear readers to the fact that our “sworn partners” are preparing for it in full swing. And not only preparation, but they have already begun to carry it out.The Lithuanian authorities have once again reduced annual quotas for cargo transit to Kaliningrad, said the Governor of the Kaliningrad Region Anton Alikhanov. “This year, Lithuania again “cut” quotas for rail transit to and from the Kaliningrad region to the main territory of Russia (-20% approximately). At the same time, the Lithuanians raised tariffs for transportation within their territory by almost 60%,” he wrote in his telegram channel. As previously reported, on July 13, 2022, the European Commission approved the transportation by Russia of sanctioned cargo to Kaliningrad only for the needs of this exclave and only by rail, but the volume of cargo is quotas and must correspond to the average amount of goods transported by rail over the past three years. Lithuania reduces these quotas every year.
Estonia and Finland are preparing to deploy anti-ship missiles on both sides of the Gulf of Finland to prevent Russian ships, both military and cargo, from entering the Baltic Sea.
Estonia is preparing a legislative basis for the introduction of a “contiguous zone” regime in the Gulf of Finland. Within its framework, Estonian intelligence services and supervisory authorities will be able to inspect ships if they suspect that they violate the country’s laws or anti-Russian sanctions. The authorities will organize inspections of ships in the Gulf of Finland at a distance of up to 24 nautical miles (about 40 km) from the territorial waters.
Finland plans to introduce a similar “adjacent zone” regime. As a result, the Gulf of Finland will be completely under the control of Estonia and Finland, and the passage of ships through it to the Kaliningrad region will be extremely difficult, and if necessary, prohibited.
It is unclear how the inspection of warships of the Baltic Fleet sailing from Kronstadt to the Kaliningrad region and back will be carried out.
It seems that the Kremlin is at a loss and does not know what to do in this situation, since it does not have any levers of pressure on Estonia, Finland and Lithuania. For now, the decision has obviously been made to use the proven method “Maybe it will resolve on its own.”
And from Gurulev today:
My feeling is that the latest NATO exercises in Europe are directed more against our main ally, the Republic of Belarus. They are working on an attempt to enter the territory of the Republic. The goal is to knock out our main ally and secure access to the borders of the Smolensk region.I have no doubt about the combat effectiveness of the armed forces of the fraternal state. NATO troops obviously do not conduct their exercises with the aim of protecting against us, this is nonsense.
Another point of tension is Kaliningrad. I see that many experts say that NATO today does not have the forces to seize this region. I am convinced that it is not a matter of the number of forces, we must in any case guarantee the highest level of protection. There is no need to be shy about saying that an attack on our territory will lead to an immediate nuclear strike on the territory from which NATO troops will depart. This is our doctrine.
I am not a supporter of nuclear war. But since Soviet times, in case of aggression against us, we have been practicing the offensive of troops after a series of successive nuclear strikes. If we have no options, then we will act this way.
A year ago we talked about the fact that the Poles are being trained for the second echelon for Ukraine. They will be forced, even if they resist with all their might. They will force the Romanians, Bulgarians, and Priblats. No one feels sorry for them; for the Anglo-Saxons they are consumables.
The way things are going, the Russian leader after Putin might realize that there will be no lasting peace not only unless Ukraine is de-Ukrainized, but also unless much of Europe is subjected to Kaliningradization...
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 3 2024 20:41 utc | 86
Re: The (alleged?) German conversation intercepted by Russia, the accusations of wild conspiracy theories (Qanon), etc.
What am I missing? Did someone say that Germany leaked their own evidence? I thought it was an intercepted communique and verified within Germany.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 3 2024 20:44 utc | 87
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 3 2024 20:41 utc | 86
About ships sailing the Baltic to and from Kaliningrad: military escort. If they want to board and inspect them then go ahead and find out.
Besides, boarding in international waters is akin to piracy.
Posted by: alek_a | Mar 3 2024 20:51 utc | 88
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 3 2024 20:41 utc | 86
Most likely the 'blockade' in the Baltic Sea is resolved by simply ignoring the 'inspection' attempts. So see if they try to sink a ship, if they sink a ship, there is a casus belli which should be drummed for the entire world to hear. The so called blockade is a war act.
As far as Nato invading Belarus, Belarus is under the Russian nuclear umbrella.
They might try to infiltrate Polish nazis into Belarus. If they come from Poland, it is yet again a war act. Seems then Nato would try to use Ukrainian territory to infiltrate Polish or Ukrainian nazis into Belarus, it's most important to cover it.
Both of these problems already occurred in 2022. Kaliningrad was resolved by replacing trains with ships. But whether Finland or Estonia will sink a ship remains to be seen.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2024 20:51 utc | 89
As far as the Rezident/Legitimny channels go, someone said they might be channels of the banned opposition in Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2024 20:27 utc | 82
That has been my thought. From one of the neutral parties that pushed to go with the Minsk agreements. Those pro Ukraine political parties that were pushing for the Minsk agreement to be followed have all been barred by the Zelensky crew or at least since Zelensky came to puppet power status.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 3 2024 20:53 utc | 90
Would also add Kaliningrad is Russian core or sovereign territory, and EU or Nato has no jurisdiction to interdict anything moving from one Russian core territory to another.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2024 20:54 utc | 91
Shadowbanned, cease the concern trolling. Any attempt at interdiction of Russian shipping between St Petersburg and Kaliningrad, or even more outrageously, attacking Belarussian territory will be met sternly by Russia. Quite possibly with nuclear weapons. NATO would not dare risking this. And the Baltic chihuahuas? If an escalation such as this occurs, their sovereign statehood will be a thing of the past, and outside of descending into the abyss of mutually assured destruction (mainland USA will not be spared) NATO will be utterly incapable of doing anything about it, having overcommitted itself already in the failed Ukraine adventure.
Posted by: Lurk | Mar 3 2024 20:55 utc | 92
by Peter AU1 | Mar 3 2024 19:51 utc | 73
Red Army was fielding a massive barrage power, They would flatten everything starting at the distance of 2 km from the front-lines, move to 4 km, 6 km and pending on the 3rd line of Nazi defense tried to hit everything behind it. When one fields 300-500 tubes per 1 km combat line length is rather easy and it didn't require that many casualties. I am thinking Bagration and onward. Most of the Red Army casualties were until and during the Stalingrad siege. Kursk was not too much affecting RA, and after that, only at the German border there were weeks of massive arty exchange and certainly losses.
It is just numbers that matter for the speed. SMO is very scaled down, in comparison. That is why I love to call it a skirmish. Some disapprove.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 3 2024 21:01 utc | 93
In a recent speech, Putin mentioned the fate of historical invaders of Russia and promised a similar or worse fate for contemporary contenders.
Russian troops marched through Paris.
Russian troops marched through Berlin.
Soon, will Russian troops march through Brussels? London?
If the conflict festers long enough, the USA may in due time have undermined and hollowed out itself to such an extent that, while yet seemingly unthinkable, Russian troops eventually shall march through Washington.
Posted by: Lurk | Mar 3 2024 21:09 utc | 94
Shadowbanned, cease the concern trolling. Any attempt at interdiction of Russian shipping between St Petersburg and Kaliningrad, or even more outrageously, attacking Belarussian territory will be met sternly by Russia. Quite possibly with nuclear weapons. NATO would not dare risking this.Posted by: Lurk | Mar 3 2024 20:55 utc | 92
NATO just bombed a residential building in St. Petersburg and wounded eight people.
This after it killed dozens in Belgorod, including a baby in a stroller.
And then laughed about it on Twitter.
The Kremlin didn't do anything in response.
When exactly do you think nukes will fly given that consistent pattern of turning the other cheek?
I will "concern troll" once again -- if Czechia had been wiped off the face of Earth by a couple dozen Iskanders and Kinzhals with 100 Kt each after their foreign minister laughed in the face of the Russians when they protested about the mass murder in Belgorod carried out using Czech weapons, maybe everyone else would have gotten the message and thought twice about escalating further.
But nothing happened at all. Not even destroying the Tatra factories (which would have required just a couple 1-kt warheads), or a conventional warhead on the building of the Czech Foreign Ministry, which was the minimum required response in this situation (and also what had been promised several times before that particular red line got crossed).
So here we are with regular drone attacks being launched from Estonia/Finland, which already destroyed important infrastructure a few weeks ago, and now hurt significant number of civilians too, and with NATO getting ready for open attacks on Russia.
Which will leave no other option than a large-scale nuclear attack on the whole of Europe. Either that or the Krelmin folds and Russia is no more...
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 3 2024 21:09 utc | 95
@ Lurk (4)
Regarding the leak of sensitive German info, the fact is that German High Command would be negligent in their duties if they did not plan for *any* eventuality. Militaries plan for all sorts of things. There seems to be a genuine belief that Russia will not stop until it reaches the English Channel. This is utter nonsense. Europe's population dwarfs Russia's, likewise, the combined military budgets of the EU, again, dwarf what Russia is spending. Why would Russia even want to conquer these places? The Baltics pretty much hate Russia from the moment of birth, do you really think Russia would want to govern such a hate-filled place for ... what? Resources? Russia has all she needs. Do you think that Russia wants to start a nuclear show-down? HOWEVER ... all that said, one cannot discard the possibility of a miscalculation, or a simple stupid mistake - the EU and the USUK have committed dump trucks full of stupid mistakes - could indeed set the ball rolling. Germany may not want a war with Russia, but that decision is not in Germany's hands. Therefor, they do indeed need to plan for more US stupidity.
They're just pissed because this became public.
Posted by: rgl | Mar 3 2024 21:15 utc | 96
by shаdοwbanned | Mar 3 2024 21:09 utc | 95
If you had in your life, any business with Russians, then you should know that they always come for their money, clear and straighten the bill and then talk about the future prospects.
I am convinced that every mischief done by NATO will be on the long to-do list - until done.
Search for the Target 21 in Berlin.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 3 2024 21:25 utc | 97
NATO has put them in a lock.What will they do?
Posted by: Comandante | Mar 3 2024 17:24 utc | 28
Youve got it the wrong way around, pal, like so much of western crap these days, like up is down and white is black. Its NATO that is in the lock. They have had to respond to the successes of Russia on the battlefield. Russia itself has not budged ONE INCH in its original goals of the SMO. Its the west that is reacting, and, I might say, making grave mistakes in its panic reactions.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Mar 3 2024 21:26 utc | 98
Republicofscotland | Mar 3 2024 19:14 utc | 64
You would think that someone with Sunak's financial connections, which are largely with India, would be a little less cavalier when talking about confiscation.
I don't think that he is clinically insane but he has no political or moral judgement whatever: Johnson, Truss, Sunak and Starmer in the wings with Rachel Reeves and David Lammie for counsel. God must be very angry with the UK.
Posted by: bevin | Mar 3 2024 21:30 utc | 99
One thing to notice with the drone attack to St. Petersburg was some drones were shot down nearly immediately west of St. Petersburg, between the mainland and Kronstadt as they were flying east over the sea.
While it's not impossible they were launched from Estonia, it's still more probable AFU has some long range drone they set to fly along the border, and come in from the west to increase the likelihood someone thinks it comes from Nato.
If one has been following, every single thing AFU has done pretty much since the beginning is try to create media events, claims or optical illusions that either 'Russia attacked Nato' (S-300 fell in Poland), Nato attacked Russia (drone coming over gulf of Finland), Russia attack Nato (drone debris fell into Romania), and now these drone events in Pskov and St. Petersburg.
They are also doing it out of desperation. Zelensky was supposed to initiate war between Russia and Nato back in mid-2022 already.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 3 2024 21:35 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Rather than following the fantasy numbers published by Ukraine for Russian casualties, I have tracked Mediazona’s number for the 5 weeks that have days in January 2023 every few months since then.
Right now:
12/29 - 01/04 - 687
01/05 – 01/11 - 618
01/12 – 01/18 – 705
01/19 – 01/25 - 644
01/26 – 02/01 - 735
Total = 3389
The total in December was 3040
The total in October was 2993
The total in September was 2776
The total in April was 1604
That is more than double the value three months after the first numbers were posted.
You can check this yourself, for any month, by using the Way Back Machine.
Has anyone seen any numbers for Russian MIAs?
Posted by: Ed2 | December 27, 2023 at 13:20
Posted by: Ed4 | Mar 3 2024 15:03 utc | 1