Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 15, 2024
Ukraine – France Already Lost In Odessa

The French president Emmanuel Micron has gone a bit crazy:

Europe’s credibility will be destroyed if Russia is allowed to win in Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron has warned, as he defended his refusal to rule out sending troops to the country.

The war in Ukraine is “existential for our Europe and for France”, Mr Macron said in the interview on France 2 and TF1.

“Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Romanians and the Bulgarians could remain at peace for a second [in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine]?” he asked. “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility would be reduced to zero.”

Micron fails to recognize that Europe does not have any credibility it could lose. Just ask those ~150 countries who have not sanctioned Russia. They know very well that the 2014 U.S./EU coup in Kiev started the mess and that the failure, especially of France and Germany, to force Kiev to implement the Minsk agreements led to its escalation.

Failing as the guarantor of agreements without any attempts to enforce them leaves one's credibility behind.

Trying to regain land for Ukraine that it had lost a decade ago is similar nonsense:

"We are doing everything we can to help Ukraine defeat Russia, because I will say it very simply: There can be no lasting peace if there is no sovereignty, if there is no return to Ukraine's internationally recognized borders, including Crimea," Macron said during the TV interview.

Interestingly Micron does not say how he will attempt to achieve that. The front is cracking everywhere and Ukraine is running out of men who are capable and willing to fight.

France could probably send 30,000 troops to Ukraine but what good could those do? It does not have the troops and equipment for a real fight with Russia. The logistics alone, vulnerable to Russian attacks, would be a nightmare.

The France dream of ruling Odessa already died during the chaos at the end of the first world war 105 years ago (edited machine translation):


December 12, 1918. Renault tanks unloading in Odessa – bigger

Emmanuel Macron's statement about the possibility of introducing French troops to Ukraine and, in particular, to Odessa fell almost on a round date: exactly 105 years ago, the French army was already on Ukrainian territory. Very briefly, though. But the French had a considerable influence on the course of events. Although not at all in favor of Ukraine: they did not allow the capture of Odessa by the troops of the Ukrainian People's Republic, transferred formal power over the city to the Russian White Guards, actually quarreled with the local rule of Hetman Grigoriev, who went over to the side of the Bolsheviks, which played a huge role in the subsequent military collapse of the UPR.

In the end, after several months of being in Southern Palmyra, the French troops were thoroughly decomposed by Bolshevik agitation, sang "Internationale" in pubs, and as a result, the French command decided to leave Odessa in early April 1919, calling it "unloading" the city in order to reduce the food shortage.

There were at that time French, Polish, Serbian, Greek, German, British and other troops involved. The Russians had split into Reds and Whites and several nationalistic Ukrainian groupings tried and failed to win a war against everyone else. The Cossack Hetman Grigoriev was probably the most interesting character of all. As is historically typical for his kind he and his troops fought for practically all parties in the war changing loyalties on a whim whenever convenient.

If France would again go to Odessa who could it really trust in a fight? The Nazi groupings? The government in Kiev which they mostly oppose? The Russia partisans who increase their activities in Ukraine day by day?

How would it react should such a missile strike, even by chance, would hit its troops camp?

Russians With Attitude @RWApodcast – 13:46 UTC · Mar 15, 2024

From what we have seen from Ukrainian media so far, today's Russian missile strike against an AFU temporary base in Odessa killed:
– Alexander Gostishev, former head of the National Police in Odessa, commander of the "Tsunami" "Assault Regiment" (formed from policemen, fought in Bakhmut, part of the "Liut" Brigade, an ongoing project to militarize and mobilize Ukrainian police staff to the frontlines)
– Sergey Tetyukhin, former deputy mayor of Odessa, who volunteered to join the AFU last year
– Dmitry Abramenko, deputy head of the National Police in Odessa
As the day goes on, more names might appear.

The French people for one do not seem to be interested in joining the mess:

In an Odoxa poll, 68 percent of French respondents said Macron's comments on Western troops in Ukraine were "wrong."

Macron's party will likely lose in the upcoming election to the European parliament. Let's hope that other leaders do not fall for the electioneering stunt he is providing with such nonsensical talk.

Comments

Posted by: ld | Mar 16 2024 20:45 utc | 406
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 16 2024 22:49 utc | 438
Much appreciated. No problem!

Posted by: Down South | Mar 17 2024 7:38 utc | 501

karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 22:20 utc | 432 and canuck | Mar 16 2024 22:55 utc | 442
I cited Karl Rove in my answer to Passerby (post 399) because he had pointed out Macron’s accusation of Russian attacks on French hospitals. My point was that that most of the public will spontaneously link Russia to any high profile hacking attack. That’s the new reality and it is nothing to deride.
In Rove’s time, the fabricated reality was of course that Saddam was Hitler, somehow had a hand in 911 and was responsible for the anthrax mail attacks. This new reality is what enabled the public’s acquiescence for war. Mobile labs, remember those?
This manipulation of opinion has been used very successfully for just about every single belligerent adventure by Team US. We gotta hit back at Afghanistan for what they dun to us in 2001 ; we gotta lay siege to those poor Iranians because they suffer from the evil Mullahs ; we gotta bomb those poor Libyans because of Qaddafi ; and on and on.
And of course, it works every time and the neocons get their wars. The public may be unhappy about other stuff, but has no qualms with military adventurism.
In my opinion, portraying the information war as nothing more than the aggressive sale of a “we’re winning” narrative is mis-characterizing the whole idea.

Posted by: robin | Mar 17 2024 8:01 utc | 502

re: Julian | Mar 17 2024 1:49 utc | 481
Ukraine is on the point of political and military collapse. The Russian war of attrition has succeeded. Regardless of how much money the US and EU decide to earmark for Ukraine, there are no longer significant stores of munitions and weapons available for purchase (and Israel gets first pick). A Russian breakout is in the offing; let us see where things stand in 4 months, you might be surprised.
Medvedev just provided his peace terms with Ukraine (which Karlofi posted). I found #6 to be interesting:
6. Official recognition by the provisional parliament of the former “Ukraine” that its entire territory is the territory of the Russian Federation. Adoption of the act on the reunification of the territories of the former “Ukraine” with Russia.

Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 17 2024 8:01 utc | 503

Macron is now ‘proposing’ a cease fire in Ukraine for the duration of the Olympic games.
So the west wants a cease fire to get more time to rearm and regroup Ukraine’s army.
If there’s a better tell tale sign of things are at their worst in this moment than before, you’d probably have to be God to know it.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 8:12 utc | 504

first of all, it is necessary to clarify wherefrom FR gets the energy (uranium, oil) and startegic commodity/ressource. If there are no secure sources, no save delivery etc than this is just a talk show.
For the French,
if he anyone wants to explain everything, sounds same Wikipedia, talk always about 3,5% economic growth, wants to save french lives, smiles like a complete idiot exchange him very fast. This are very bad signs

Posted by: theo | Mar 17 2024 8:16 utc | 505

@ 331
He’s an upper caste Hindu turd.
Only someone with a single digit iq would be impressed by him.
Grow up.

Posted by: Jogesh99 | Mar 17 2024 8:32 utc | 506

Dima from the border:
-AFU controls a few buildings on the west side of Kozinka
-They might try to use the forest SW part of Kozinka to move unhindered by drones to the central parts
-So far it looks like there is little chance to develop anything bigger, they are getting bombed all the time
-AFU sends drone strikes randomly, most are downed but some get through
-Significant number of Vampire and Uragan MLRS rockets downed
-So far on the morning of March 17th, the voting has already reached 60 %
Also, Budanov and the Ukro insider channels already acknowledged the border incursion was a failure. The purpose of drone strikes is to scare people from voting, i.e. pure terrorism.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 8:39 utc | 507

@Julian | Mar 17 2024 1:49 utc | 481

Weren’t you saying Zelensky would be gone by February 2024 and wouldn’t see the 10th Anniversary of the Maidan Coup?
I think you were.
Still there mate.

You are correct, I did say that. So for now I have been proven wrong. But we shall see for how long the collapse is delayed.

Hahahahahaha. Russia still hasn’t even controlled Donbas, let alone Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Chenihiv in over 2 years – and you think in 4 months (July 2024) – Russia will be marching West of the Dnieper!!?!?
WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING?!?

I am not smoking or drinking, maybe you are projecting. I am watching the developments and the course is set. Timing may be a little off, but the end is certain.
Notice Putin now refers to “the Neo-nazi Kiev regime”. That means it will be defeated.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 17 2024 9:00 utc | 508

@unimperator | Mar 17 2024 8:12 utc | 505

Macron is now ‘proposing’ a cease fire in Ukraine for the duration of the Olympic games.

Does that mean that he intends to let Russian athletes to compete in the Olympic games?

Does Macron have any logic in his head?

First he gives Kiev French missiles to attack our population centres. Then he says we must defeat Russia. Then he wants to send troops to Ukraine to fight us directly. And suddenly he asks President Putin to stop the SMO for the duration of the Olympic Games (26 July to 11 August) in Paris.

And I have a question: does Macron remember that our athletes were not allowed to take part?
— Marat Bashirov, politologist

https://t.me/ukraine_watch/18597

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 17 2024 9:12 utc | 509

Does that mean that he intends to let Russian athletes to compete in the Olympic games?
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 17 2024 9:12 utc | 510

Well, probably not. And not that it really matters.
What matters is Nato probably wants this so-called ceasefire to rearm Ukronazis, create more defensive lines, and most importantly, insert Nato troops to occupy important places in Ukraine. Odessa would probably be the most important place.
But just a few days ago a 1.5 ton volumetric bomb supposedly wiped out a large chunk of the Kraken nazis in Odessa, obviously that is a message what awaits any Nato force, regardless how high quality Nato super-dooper-special-pooper-forces are sent to occupy Odessa.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 9:27 utc | 510

@unimperator | Mar 17 2024 9:27 utc | 511

But just a few days ago a 1.5 ton volumetric bomb supposedly wiped out a large chunk of the Kraken nazis in Odessa, obviously that is a message what awaits any Nato force, regardless how high quality Nato super-dooper-special-pooper-forces are sent to occupy Odessa.

According to Mercouris, the widely reported strike in Odessa is not the same as the strike on the Kraken nazis (causing hundreds of casualties).

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 17 2024 9:35 utc | 511

Medvedev just provided his peace terms with Ukraine (which Karlofi posted). I found #6 to be interesting:
6. Official recognition by the provisional parliament of the former “Ukraine” that its entire territory is the territory of the Russian Federation. Adoption of the act on the reunification of the territories of the former “Ukraine” with Russia.
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 17 2024 8:01 utc | 504

This is indeed interesting. I previously predicted that Russia would shut off the electricity to Ukraine, causing large-scale movements of the civilian population out of Ukraine.
I was wrong – and this posting by Medvedev gives a clue why I was wrong. If Russia plans to reunite Ukraine with Russia, they don’t want the civilian population to leave – they’re needed to keep Ukraine as a viable part of Russia. They also don’t want the civilian population of Ukraine to hate Russia, they want them to hate the Kiev government, because there will be elections.
Instead, Russia seems to want to maximize losses of the Ukraine army while simultaneously minimizing losses of the Russian army. To do this, I predict Russia will continue doing what they’re doing – letting Ukraine feed the meat grinder along a long, static front. The blame for this slaughter will go to Zelensky and Syrsky, since the Russians can plausibly claim they’re just protecting civilians in Donbass.
Almost all commentators note that the Ukraine army is almost out of manpower and weapons, and that the meatgrinder strategy has almost run its course. Sometime in 2024, Medvedev’s terms will be imposed on Ukraine.

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Mar 17 2024 9:36 utc | 512

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 9:27 utc | 511
The so called collective west was hoping/dreaming of a frozen conflict just after the failed counteroffensive.
Probably they thought the weather itself could help.
Russia, as usual didn’t play along their lines so they desperately needs something else.
Moreover the period of the Olympic games is possibly one of the best time to make big land operations.

Posted by: Mario | Mar 17 2024 9:39 utc | 513

Re the Olympics. I think the Russians remember what happened during the Olympics in Sochi in February 2014.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 17 2024 9:56 utc | 514

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Mar 17 2024 9:36 utc | 513
The standard method of mobilization, evident in videos of Ukraine TCC action suggest they will not scrape together another 500k people. Maybe they get 80k in the timeframe they want to get 500k. Ukraine is already full blown military dictatorship, all the toughest methods are already applying, going up to seizing of personal bank accounts for failing to appear in TCC.
Obviously, this blows up the banking system in Ukraine. The economy and exports is under blockade from Poland and Slovakia. EU is therefore committing more and more financial aid (note, the military aid is less relevant as EU is empty), and in the process weakening itself.
Failing to mobilize 500k means more exploitable gaps will develop on the front.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 9:57 utc | 515

How Russia expect to host 16st BRICS summit in october if they don’t control their airspace anymore ?
I read here there is some kinda agreements to avoid international incidents during foreign official visits in Ukraine but are the Banderists able to respect anything close ?
The West won’t accept the image of Indian, Chinese, South African leaders attending a summit in Moscow and handshaking warmly Putin. They will do anything to prevent it to happen : that would destroy definitively the MSM narrative of an isolated Russia.

Posted by: America is defeated | Mar 17 2024 9:58 utc | 516

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 17 2024 2:49 utc | 492
In 50 years time? Don’t forget the current AFV’s being used are already 40 years old, they’ve had numerous mid-service extension programmes, but the underlying platforms were designed and introduced in the late 70’s-80’s. Same goes for the majority of artillery, both tube and rocket, and WW2 small arms, or their descendants, largely equip both sides. As for reliability issues, electronic and electro-mechanical systems have increased in reliability, over the decades, as any classic car owner will tell you.
Just as the developed countries political and economic mechanisms are beginning to emerge and adapt to the post-Cold-War world, so will the weapon systems they use. The US, as ever, has led the way, leveraging her economic superiority, but it also has the biggest ideological and institutional barriers to overcome, as a result of a soft-coup, decades in the making, and only recently having been exposed. Russia has played a good game with a comparatively weak hand, exploiting its opponents errors, but the SMO has revealed many areas of improvement, especially antiquated logistics capabilities that have been routine since the Red Army mechanised. China is also facing difficulties, with large numbers of legacy platforms, and a strong force capability on paper, which many analysts believe will not translate to actual combat performance.
Like any transitional peer to peer conflicts, where new technologies are introduced, or legacy systems get to be used, there will be major changes and shifts in its aftermath, to the inherently conservative world of the military. Still, don’t be surprised to see these platforms in action 40 years laters as LDC’s battle it out over the usual list of conflict initiators.

Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 10:05 utc | 517

Macron is what they call a “loose cannon” on board of the European ship – an asset that, by lack of (self-)control, endangers the ship as a whole. Why? Because he cannot keep his mouth shut. When saying
“we would be ready to make sure that Russia never wins that war”
he subscribes to a formula that was coined during the early days of the SMO. Insisting to follow through with what has turned out to be an impossible plan, he locks himself into a corner. The danger is, to be carried away by ones own words and promises, the second danger is, to collect the applause of other players (especially lightweight ones, and therefore irresponsibly acting like Finland) and end up as the leader of the lynchmob, which hinders you to ever think again and change your mind.
Europe entering an unstable state like this, is worrying me more than whatever is coming out of Washington.

Posted by: grunzt | Mar 17 2024 10:21 utc | 518

📌 …The outcome of battles is decided by technology and non-standard solutions.
Posted by: Down South | Mar 17 2024 7:34 utc | 500

Whatever provides an edge when it counts, otherwise victory is counted in blood.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 8:39 utc | 508
Surveillance of the border region was too thin to preempt the first Grayvoron raid back in May last year, there were more Doesn’t Matter artists on these pages than there could possibly have been drone operators providing surveillance of the region in question, and yet here we are.
Great if there is a tip off of an impending attack but most of the border is open fields and county roads, obscuring vegetation can be felled / burned to improve visibility.
The trouble with rocket attacks is one thing, they can fire from tens of km and move under cover in seconds, but this business of men and vehicles attacking the border is something else.

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 17 2024 10:26 utc | 519

Insisting to follow through with what has turned out to be an impossible plan, he locks himself into a corner. Europe entering an unstable state like this, is worrying me more than whatever is coming out of Washington.
Posted by: grunzt | Mar 17 2024 10:21 utc | 519
The guy is a moron and a puppet, like his twin actor from Canada. They don’t do anything by themselves, they can’t even speak properly, they’re mentally at 16-18 at best. Now that ukroproxy is almost dead, the next ones will be activated, then again and again. But what’s the problem? Are you afraid the wars, which usually happen only to losers while Europeans enjoy it on TV, will this time spread all over EU? If you live there maybe it’s a good idea to prepare to take a long trip, otherwise this time you’ll be watching and enjoying the TV show.

Posted by: rk | Mar 17 2024 10:47 utc | 520

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 17 2024 10:26 utc | 520
Things only matter if an action affects an opponent’s operational or strategic decision cycle. Forcing your will onto your enemy’s is the essence of warfare, if you can demonstrate how these border incursions affect Russia’s strategic or operational plans then they are significant. Otherwise they just demonstrate how Russian operational success is forcing the Ukrainians into ever-more desperate gambits. Even though they have attacked the Russian border, one has to ask, whose will is being imposed on whom?

Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 10:54 utc | 521

505
inwould wager my house that naive naive minsk 2 chessmaster will agree with a ceasefire

Posted by: tesla | Mar 17 2024 10:56 utc | 522

If you live there maybe it’s a good idea to prepare to take a long trip, otherwise this time you’ll be watching and enjoying the TV show.
Posted by: rk | Mar 17 2024 10:47 utc | 521
Correct. And when it spills over into “the garden“, then those that advocate for peace should be aware that they will be threated like the enemy from the rabid ones. Just as in the ukraine.
Either arm yourself and be willing to defend your peace with blood, or leave.
And my kids will not end up in such a situation, thats why we leave.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 17 2024 11:06 utc | 523

Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 17 2024 11:06 utc | 524
Where are you going?

Posted by: Nemo Ingenting | Mar 17 2024 11:24 utc | 524

Posted by: Justpassinby | Mar 17 2024 11:06 utc | 524
I’ll put my money on the contrary.
It’s easy to a warmonger when others are dieing and you’re comfortably sitting in front of the TV set or phone screen.
When it’s your turn, or your son, to go to the front I guess everything will change.

Posted by: Mario | Mar 17 2024 11:43 utc | 525

Europeans are brainwashed. I’m browsing a German newspaper, “Die Welt”, generally considered to be conservative. Some headlines:
Operation Self-Armament – In the secret weapons laboratories of Ukraine
How long will Russia’s money last for the war? “It’s always enough” (Oleg Vyugin)
Putin’s decade of stagnation “Stagnation in its purest form”
Moscow airports restrict flights after drone attacks
“Russians eat and drink their problems away”
The new ideal German citizen is the denouncer
The Germans, the born subjects
“Help, I’ve met a devout man”
“Lower-educated, conservative men are very unattractive on the dating market”
Anal sex survey: what goes down well with women

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 17 2024 12:04 utc | 526

Videos circulating in web about ukros in Gorkovsky
They Tore down the Russian flag and raised the ukro flag on russian territory
RWO is looking for strong partners but not for somebody who cant secure his borders from nazi scums
Last 2 years Putin turned Russia & Russian reputation in a laughing clown show
Good job 5d traitor!

Posted by: SlowSoft | Mar 17 2024 12:14 utc | 527

Things only matter if an action affects an opponent’s operational or strategic decision cycle. Forcing your will onto your enemy’s is the essence of warfare, if you can demonstrate how these border incursions affect Russia’s strategic or operational plans then they are significant. Otherwise they just demonstrate how Russian operational success is forcing the Ukrainians into ever-more desperate gambits. Even though they have attacked the Russian border, one has to ask, whose will is being imposed on whom?
Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 10:54 utc | 522
Ukrainians are at best disposable, their deaths are arguably a desirable outcome on the grounds that they are culturally Russian, the demographic of Russian orthodoxy, and it being far easier to dispossess the dead. Ukraine’s new corporate landlords will doubtless concur.
The problem with the Doesn’t Matter arguments is that they are, at base, nothing more than a defence of Russia’s least competent officers, an attempt to avoid accounting for who knew / did what and when. Someone who can’t arrange border surveillance, floating booms in a military harbour, anti-drone protection on warships, the defence of a dam, isn’t magically going to be able to operate at the strategic level, they will incur avoidable losses that are the constituent parts of the operational and strategic picture.
Russian planners were wrong-footed going into SMO and getting things back to a manageable routine has entailed compromises that sit very well within the parameters outlined by Barry Posen in 1994 and meaningful statements such as “to the last Ukrainian” and “neither side can win”. Whose will is being imposed?

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 17 2024 12:23 utc | 528

It’s always good to read Gilbert Doctorow’s opnion on this matter (I don’t always agree for the full 100%):
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/03/17/france-sees-no-red-lines-in-what-it-does-to-russia-there-will-be-consequences

Posted by: WMG | Mar 17 2024 12:30 utc | 529

Macron is now ‘proposing’ a cease fire in Ukraine for the duration of the Olympic games.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 8:12 utc | 505
Macron did not ask for a ceasefire in Gaza? Strange.

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 17 2024 12:34 utc | 530

Macron did not ask for a ceasefire in Gaza? Strange.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 17 2024 12:34 utc | 531
_____
Actually not strange at all, but I’m sure you were being ironic!

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 17 2024 12:42 utc | 531

What does the future look like for NATO and EUropean Union?
A military mutual defense alliance has no future when one member attacks another members’ infrastructure – Nord Stream.
The European Union might have survived, if – as a civilian organisation – it had focused on reconstruction after the war, and not on weapons and sanctions during the war.
On the other hand, if Washington wants you to stay in an organisation, who can afford to leave?

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 17 2024 12:44 utc | 532

Posted by: ryanggg | Mar 16 2024 17:00 utc | 347
Simply incoherent. The way you use ‘Bolshevik’ it could mean almost anything or anyone. Maybe you are Humpty Dumpty and a word means just what you say it does?

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 17 2024 12:57 utc | 533

It’s always good to read Gilbert Doctorow’s opnion on this matter (I don’t always agree for the full 100%):
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/03/17/france-sees-no-red-lines-in-what-it-does-to-russia-there-will-be-consequences
Posted by: WMG | Mar 17 2024 12:30 utc | 530

Doctorow also provides some numbers of how many “foreign soldiers” there are in the Ukraine.

Posted by: WMG | Mar 17 2024 13:07 utc | 534

Norwegian @515: “Re the Olympics. I think the Russians remember what happened during the Olympics in Sochi in February 2014.”
The Russians should return the favor. The Paris Olympics would be the perfect time for any “big arrow” moves if the Russians are considering them.
Imagine the frustrated butthurt of the `pean “garden dwellers” having their garden party spoiled and whining impotently that they should banish the Russians from their shitty little garden, only to realize they had already done so and they have nothing left to “punish” the Russians with.
That would be some sweet justice.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 17 2024 13:10 utc | 535

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 19:29 utc | 384
Exactly. Posters here should remember that the Kremlin has access to 1000’s of times more information on the Ukraine, the machinations of MI6/CIA, western history and weapons, the Russian AF etc. than any one person here.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 17 2024 13:15 utc | 536

Re: Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 17 2024 8:01 utc | 504

Ukraine is on the point of political and military collapse. The Russian war of attrition has succeeded. Regardless of how much money the US and EU decide to earmark for Ukraine, there are no longer significant stores of munitions and weapons available for purchase (and Israel gets first pick). A Russian breakout is in the offing; let us see where things stand in 4 months, you might be surprised.
Medvedev just provided his peace terms with Ukraine (which Karlofi posted). I found #6 to be interesting:
6. Official recognition by the provisional parliament of the former “Ukraine” that its entire territory is the territory of the Russian Federation. Adoption of the act on the reunification of the territories of the former “Ukraine” with Russia.

Yes yes yes, I’ve heard that Ukraine is on the brink of imminent defeat for two years now – you still don’t get it do you Perimetr – I should check whether you were one of those people saying the same thing in mid-2022 – my first instinct is that I bet you were.
As for Medvedev – he’s said exactly the same things for 2 years!! So what?!?
Words are empty – Actions – such as capturing Kiev & Odessa (even Kharkiv FFS) speak much louder!!!
I would give Russia a 10-15% chance of capturing Kiev or Odessa this year – clearly you give it a 100% chance!!!
Good luck with that – have you been asleep for two years?!?

Posted by: Julian | Mar 17 2024 13:24 utc | 537

Otherwise they just demonstrate how Russian operational success is forcing the Ukrainians into ever-more desperate gambits. Even though they have attacked the Russian border, one has to ask, whose will is being imposed on whom?
Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 10:54 utc | 522
I believe US and EU sanctions were supposed to put Russia in it’s place … and I saw that as a NATO defeat but lately it looks like plan B is a full fledged NATO air assault and these attacks on Belgorad combined with Macron’s “no red lines” statement are a provocation to get Russia to attack the Czech republic over the use of Vampire MLRS against Belgorad.
NATO has had 2 years to watch Russian operations and map every position and every movement. They’ve been watching so long they not only know where the Russians are but they can predict how the Russians will move based on past movements
NATO recently ran exercises along Russia’s borders and in the Baltic which is really just a big intelligence gathering operation.
Even when the Russians destroy NATO radars and SAMS they upload the data they collected on the missiles and drones that destroyed them they can then use to tweak their EW and missile seekers.
When Russia shoots down these pinprick drone attacks they reveal a lot about SAM sites and Russian EW.
I suspect the guys in Washington and Brussels pulling the strings don’t give a shit about Ukraine … they’re all basically Russians. This is just a mapping operation.
The combination of Macron’s “red lines” statement and now less than a week later Belgorad is being attacked with Czech supplied Vampire missiles is a provocation begging Russia to strike a NATO country.
Most countries militaries try to hide their weaknesses … the USA has press releases telling the world how unprepared they are. Just today they claimed 75% of F-35 aren’t operational … right at the moment Ukraine is shelling Belgorad and drones are striking all over Russia.
Losing Ukraine to Russia isn’t a disaster for anyone but Russia integrating economically and militarily is game over for the west. Sanctions were supposed to put an end to the partnership but they failed. Now the west has to choose between kinetic warfare against the weaker partner or geopolitical defeat and deep economic decline.
Right now is the window … they have good maps and intelligence and the Russian army is busy expending bombs and missiles killing fellow Slavs. If they allow the Russian to defeat Ukraine and regroup and rearm they face a battle hardened Russian army with a fully modernized MIC and Russia’s economic center of gravity moving steadily east out of reach. It’s now or never.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 17 2024 13:37 utc | 538

The problem for Russia is in the following:
Ukro losses are huge, but acceptable for Ukrainian society.
Russia losses are lesser, but not acceptable for Russian society.

Posted by: vargas | Mar 17 2024 13:42 utc | 539

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 17 2024 12:23 utc | 529
Extrapolating operational and strategic performances by assessing tactical competencies fails to take into account the way those levels of command operate, or the factors that influence them. Case in point, Rotmistrov, commander of the 5th GTA in ‘43 was demonstrably a mediocre commander, who twice rendered his command operationally incapable. II SS Panzer Korps was operationally more competent and tactically superior, regularly inflicting 10-12/1 loss rates on the 5th GTA, but the former formation benefited from a strategy that aligned its military, political and economic priorities, whilst the latter was actively hampered by it. Each level of command is supported or restricted by the one above and that also applies to levels of competence.
Russia is strategically superior to Ukraine, Russia will therefore win eventually, if you can think of an historical example otherwise please let me know. That does not mean, as in the case of 5th GTA’s, that incompetence, lack of flexibility, initiative or innovation does not have an impact, it just means the victories achieved are far more costly in blood, treasure and time than they would have been under competent leadership. War is NOT about the absence of mistakes, just making less than your opponent, the greater the disparity the quicker and bloodless, victory is achieved and conversely, the smaller, the greater the cost.

Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 13:48 utc | 540

It’s now or never.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 17 2024 13:37 utc | 539
Those are very big bets to have to cover should they loose.
That’s the western world I’m referring to.

Posted by: jpc | Mar 17 2024 13:48 utc | 541

Do you remember Martuynov, the strategist wizard?
He said, already in 2022. that Ukraine is defeated, he repeated: “cauldron, cauldron…”
It is better to talk about the real situation and huge problems that to talk bullshit like Martuynov.
Russia is on the side of good, humanity, but that does not guarantee the Russian victory.

Posted by: vargas | Mar 17 2024 13:53 utc | 542

It’s interesting, there is not much coverage or reports on the “terror attacks” or whatever you want to call them in the Western press. The usual suspects like Politico or Business Insider are quiet. I would caution everyone that it is wise to wait around 24-48 hours before drawing too many conclusions. Dima may be getting way over his skis. That usually results in getting re-acquainted with the laws of gravity.
That is not to say that this whole episode should be ignored. I hate to be an armchair general, but if I were Russia I would respond as such:
1. Call an urgent UN Security Council meeting (I know, it’s not going to do anything practical, but bear with me) and raise a motion to declare Czechoslovakia a terrorist state for selling the vampires that killed civilians.
I picked the Czechs because they are a small country, very reachable by hypersonic missiles in a short time. It is also bordered by Poland across which the hypersonics would need to fly.
2. Once the vote inevitably fails, with a possible abstention or even a yes vote from China, strike on NATO airfields and warehouses. Explicitly declare that this is in retaliation for the terrorist acts perpetrated by the UAF with NATO support.
There will be several beneficial consequences:
+ A sense of genuine fear will finally be put into NATO. Imagine everyday citizens waking up to the sounds of large explosions and fires in the Czech republic. Poland and France will also know that they can be next.
+Flying hypersonic’s right over Polish airspace and hitting targets in the Czech republic (maybe some factories that produced the weapons can be the primary target) will send a message that NATO is powerless to defend against such attacks.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 17 2024 13:54 utc | 543

Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 17 2024 13:37 utc | 539
There are many who believe the sanctions primary target was Europe not Russia. A European continent, replete with cheap Russian energy, would be counter to the GND strategy and the bifurcation, or ‘Great Cleaving’, that would be the foundation of the elites quasi-feudal project. Putin’s scalp was just a bonus that would bolster their credentials, amidst a wave of public doubt about their competency, after various ‘disasters’. They always try to win on every level and end up losing it all, but what’s to expect from entitled brats whose only successes are comprised of the the three D’s, deceit, disingenuousness and dishonesty.

Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 13:58 utc | 544

See they’re “protest vote” demonstrations at Russian embassies throughout Europe.
There’s a Russian woman on sky right now giving the reporter’s responses they don’t want to here.
Intelligent woman well informed!
Knows the score.
And being allowed to say it on sky.
Interesting!

Posted by: jpc | Mar 17 2024 14:14 utc | 545

@tesla
Hypocrites are liars too, because they lie to themselves
Russia has been excluded from Olympic games but this
Transbastard Micron demands a ceasefire for his games!?
Like always the weakling will again cave in the hope his western partners will appreciate his betrayal

Posted by: SlowSoft | Mar 17 2024 14:18 utc | 546

@Milites | Mar 17 2024 13:58 utc | 545
That is why the US bombed NS2. Germany suffers, not Russia.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 17 2024 14:19 utc | 547

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 17 2024 13:54 utc | 544
The reason MSM is silent is because the terror attacks on Belgorod are supposed to provoke an attack. Say for instance Russia attacks Czech, no one will remember or know attacks in Belgorod by Vampire MLRS rockets. They will just say it was an unprovoked attack, just like the ‘unprovoked attack in Ukraine’.
Simply put, the average population in EUrope is really dumb. The media has done a fantastic job in separating society into tiny blocs, and obfuscating the minority voices. That is a very bad indicator for what’s coming, the sheep will be easily marched into the slaughter.
The only thing one can do is see where the steamroller is heading and simply not be on its path. The empire will not give up its goal of dissecting Russia into 40 pieces, and have no problems sacrificing millions in effort to achieve it, even if the effort is futile.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 14:25 utc | 548

Calgary guy@479…..it’s more optics than anything. And as the Brits are also targeting Russian commercial vessels in the Black Sea, once the Ukie ships, any ships, enter territorial waters they will be potential targets.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 17 2024 14:26 utc | 549

Le Petit Bouffon is not only a class A clown but seems is a heavy drug addict or severely mentally damaged individual.
Maybe so many years of abuse from his life partner took a heavy toll on him
cest la vie

Posted by: Comandante | Mar 17 2024 14:26 utc | 550

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 14:25 utc | 549
That’s the most likely scenario, based on evidence.
I still maintain a bit of hope that someone will come to their senses, but it is awfully hard to see who, what, when, or where. Perhaps China could play a bigger role if they can ween themselves off of being an exporter to the US and Europe. Imagine the effect if China announced an export ban on all goods to the US and Europe, until a cease-fire with all parties to the war (not the US) hauled to a peace summit in Beijing?
I’m dreaming, now time to wake up. Most likely path forward is higher on the escalatory ladder. I know one thing – Russia won’t allow itself to become a Western vassal state. That will wake up the slumbering populace and if you live anywhere in Western or Eastern Europe, you won’t like what comes next.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 17 2024 14:34 utc | 551

The only thing one can do is see where the steamroller is heading and simply not be on its path. The empire will not give up its goal of dissecting Russia into 40 pieces, and have no problems sacrificing millions in effort to achieve it, even if the effort is futile.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 14:25 utc | 550

this is true. What The West wants, what EU millions are dreaming of is escalation, escalation escalation.
Macron knows that this idea of war with Russia is popular in the French society. Even if rationally, the people are against the war, the reality has been distorted by MSM and Hollywood, for years. Deep inside, many feel a need for purification, fear and destruction.

Posted by: vargas | Mar 17 2024 14:46 utc | 552

Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 13:58 utc | 545

There are many who believe the sanctions primary target was Europe not Russia.

I don’t buy that as a primary objective … keeping Germany in check may be a bonus but not primary. China is the USA’s primary competitor and Russia fully integrated with China as an economic bloc is far more damaging to the USA than the any competition with the EU. The USA doesn’t do anything without a coalition and their primary partners are European.
The US / UK goal since 1917 has been to make Russia militarily weak and economically dependent on the west. That hasn’t changed. In 1939 the Austrian corporal saw that Germany needed Russian resources to become a world power capable of competing with the USA / UK’s naval power which starved them into submission in 1918. That hasn’t changed and China today is in the same position as Germany was in 1939. The USA has to stop that.

Putin’s scalp was just a bonus that would bolster their credentials,

Putin’s crime is kicking the carpetbaggers out of Russia. Americans have an evangelical belief that if you scratch any Russian you find an American underneath … they believe you scratch anyone on earth they find an American and if you don’t they are just part of a minority of animals to be put down.
With Putin at the helm the Americans face a Russia and China fully integrated … that’s game over. That makes the US navy and air force irrelevant in a big power conflict with China because all their supply lines are internal. They can damage China but they can’t defeat them or credibly threaten them with conventional means. With Brics in place western economic sanctions are irrelevant and as we’ve witnessed in Ukraine may in fact hurt the USA more than China / Russia. North Korea and Iran are no longer isolated.
The USA has to get rid of Putin and either replace him with a western friendly government they can re-intergrate with Europe or an impotent leader leading a destroyed Russia. Any other outcome is a loss for the USA.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 17 2024 14:57 utc | 553

Posted by: vargas | Mar 17 2024 14:46 utc | 554
Macron is not completely stupid. He needs to “war game” it out.
Spoiler – it ends with a few million dead Frenchies and Paris a smoldering ruins.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 17 2024 15:12 utc | 554

Was the Ukranian pressofficer for the Ukraian Airforce fired becourse off the kill-strike in Odessa? If they had a bigwig meeting there and could not protect it….

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Mar 17 2024 15:14 utc | 555

Most likely path forward is higher on the escalatory ladder.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 17 2024 14:34 utc | 553
No!!! You think so?
Mi8 helicopter was destroyed by drone attack in Transnistria ( t.me/RWApodcast/983 ). Also dead and wounded in Belgorod ( https://t.me/rybar/58249 )

Posted by: rk | Mar 17 2024 15:17 utc | 556

Karl Rove
WE are creating our own reality- Ukraine is winning- Putin is Hitler and Russia are useless loosers
When you studie it-
We create a new reality- Putin is still Hitler but russia is now a treath to the rest of Europe

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Mar 17 2024 15:18 utc | 557

Ghost of Zanon @544: “I picked the Czechs because they are a small country…”
Bad idea, and by suggesting it you demonstrate that you don’t understand how gangsters/pack animals operate.
It is true that the alpha dog in the pack (the USA) is acting worryingly infirm, but the beta dogs (Britain and France in particular) have stepped up and are barking loudly. The pack still feels confident though because the strongest beta dog replacing a declining alpha as head of the pack is a natural part of pack/gang dynamics.
Czechistan isn’t anywhere near being a beta dog. They are not even omega. Like the Baltic statelets, they are best thought of as a gamma dog. They are like the snarling little chihuahuas that the rest of the pack tolerates because they are harmless and nonthreatening despite their noise and posturing. None of the pack takes them seriously, but they are still technically part of the pack.
The problem with this dynamic is that stomping the chihuahua does nothing to impress or frighten the pack/gang. On the contrary, it telegraphs weakness to the pack since the pack members higher in the pack hierarchy wouldn’t even bother attacking the gamma dogs if they got annoying. Only a weakling would do that.
What this means is that Russia striking at one of the little piss-ant Euro states is far more likely to trigger a major escalation. One of the beta dog states, or ideally the alpha dog, needs to get its nose conspicuously bloodied if the intention is to put the entire pack on the back foot.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 17 2024 15:19 utc | 558

Ghost of Zanon @545: “It’s interesting, there is not much coverage or reports on the “terror attacks” or whatever you want to call them in the Western press. The usual suspects like Politico or Business Insider are quiet.”
That is because these attacks are failing so abysmally that western presstitutes will have some of their precious but dwindling cache of credibility incinerated if they tried to build a jingoistic narrative around the terror attacks. Best for their cause if they just pretend it all never happened.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 17 2024 15:33 utc | 559

“Bad idea, and by suggesting it you demonstrate that you don’t understand how gangsters/pack animals operate.
It is true that the alpha dog in the pack (the USA) is acting worryingly infirm, but the beta dogs (Britain and France in particular) have stepped up and are barking loudly. The pack still feels confident though because the strongest beta dog replacing a declining alpha as head of the pack is a natural part of pack/gang dynamics…”
Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 17 2024 15:19 utc | 560
“The Wild still lingered in him and the wolf in him merely slept. He was a silent fury who no torment could tame. Fear urged him to go back, but growth drove him on. White Fang knew the law well: to oppress the weak and obey the strong.”
jack London, “White Fang” , 1906

Posted by: canuck | Mar 17 2024 15:33 utc | 560

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 17 2024 15:33 utc | 561
I second that.
The first day, or maybe, for a couple of day the attacks were reported but they faded away fast.
Next week or couple of weeks Msm will push on the elections ‘explaining’ how Putin is much weaker than he pretend to be.
Probably, also all the Macron buzz will subside.

Posted by: Mario | Mar 17 2024 15:58 utc | 561

Posted by: sln2002 | Mar 16 2024 16:53 utc | 345
That makes good reading. I’ve visited Emporias in Catalunya several times – it is a marvel. Still being excavated. Thousands of years have passed, their settlements and terraces for olives around the Mediterranean shaped pre Roman Europe and MENA.
In fact there are many such towns and cities around with their fascinating pottery, wine and oil shops -which were ‘man powered’ a euphemism now of indentured slavery of these days.
There was plumbing built from such oil mills in buildings that led directly to the ships in the port to fill the massive vats on board! That’s in Puglia btw.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 17 2024 16:27 utc | 562

In fact there are many such towns and cities around with their fascinating pottery, wine and oil shops -which were ‘man powered’ a euphemism now of indentured slavery of these days.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 17 2024 16:27 utc | 564
The artisans driving these ancient industries were not necessarily slaves; more often the folks who lived in these settlements as mostly free citizens.
Mines, on the other hand, were quite a different affair. But the idea that all ancient idustries were types of Roman latifundia is incorrect.

Posted by: Constantine | Mar 17 2024 17:06 utc | 563

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 17 2024 15:19 utc | 560
Interesting point about the pack mentality.
Certainly there would be much pleading from the lap dogs like Czech Republic to get the big dog off the porch. The possibility you’re missing is what happens after the “alpha” dog is shown to have no balls?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 17 2024 17:20 utc | 564

I finally had to give up…
After reading many of the comments I am driven to conclude y’all are engaging in an intellectual circle-jerk.
Going on and on about how many angels can dance on a pin head. Yikes!
No constructive ideas on how to fix the mess, and No One has answered my question: what about Russia are you Russophobes afraid of?

Posted by: OldFart | Mar 17 2024 17:40 utc | 565

Ghost of Zanon @566: “The possibility you’re missing is what happens after the “alpha” dog is shown to have no balls?”
Then the beta dogs scuffle to determine which is new alpha. I think that is actually what we are seeing play out right now.

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 17 2024 17:58 utc | 566

@567
Não sabemos, Old.
Somos na maioria russofilos…
Que tal ir fazer esta pergunta em algum site da “imprensa” ocidental?
Tenha uma boa semana.

Posted by: Soviético | Mar 17 2024 18:24 utc | 567

Posted by: vargas | Mar 17 2024 13:42 utc | 541
The problem for Russia is in the following:
Ukro losses are huge, but acceptable for Ukrainian society.
Russia losses are lesser, but not acceptable for Russian society.

Ukrainian losses are huge, but Ukrainian society doesn’t know how huge, so currently accept them.
Russia losses are lesser, but Russian society knows how many, and whilst sad, they are currently acceptable.
I’m living in a small town in Sverdlovskaya. Every death in the SMO is marked by a placard in a prominent place in each mikro-raion (suburb). A photo of the deceased, name, date of birth and date of death. They are in a line from the first death to the latest. It is nearby to the factory memorial to the fallen in the Great Patriotic War. I walk by it frequently with my eldest daughter and my youngest granddaughter in her pram. The latest death was a schoolmate of my daughter.
At the beginning of the SMO, my daughter ran into the mother of a good schoolfriend and wished that her son would be safe. He is in the VDV and was probably at Gostomel at the time. The mother’s reply would make a Lacedaemonion proud. She said that her son may die, but he would die ensuring that there would be no more Kiras and Kristinas – the Gorlovka Madonna and child. Russian society accepts that there will be many deaths in the SMO, but those deaths will save many, many more innocents.

Posted by: Peter Williams | Mar 17 2024 18:40 utc | 568

Posted by: Peter Williams | Mar 17 2024 18:40 utc | 570
All I can say is I hope we can all soon go back to walks with our children and grandchildren without thoughts of the carnage going on in Ukraine or worrying about what horrors the next escalation brings. I don’t speak for all Canadians but I can assure you that in my social circles there are Canadians who know history and are aghast at our governments ignorant actions in their support of Ukraine. I think this is a watershed moment where we will find out if NATO is serious about escalating the confrontation with Russia or whether support will wane and die out.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 17 2024 19:48 utc | 569

Reminds me of the childrens nursery rhyme depicting futile military blustering – “Oh the grand old Duke of York, he had 10000 men. He marched them up to the top of the hill then he marched them down again.”

Posted by: Lactrum | Mar 18 2024 9:35 utc | 570

“Russia is strategically superior to Ukraine, Russia will therefore win eventually, if you can think of an historical example otherwise please let me know. ”
milites 542
I do have one example: Heraclius the Easter Roman Emperor was fighting against the Sassanids, Persians, and in 615 AD all he had left of his Empire was the fortress Constantinople. Heraclius went to the Priests and had all the Church gold melted down and took the gold on a ship and in along the Black Sea recruited another army with his gold and a few years later he was victorious.(1)
However, the Eastern Roman Empire was exhausted from the long war as was the Sassanids which left their territories vulnerable to the Arab invasions.
1. https://www.thecollector.com/byzantine-sassanian-war/

Posted by: canuck | Mar 18 2024 11:33 utc | 571

“Mines, on the other hand, were quite a different affair. But the idea that all ancient industries were types of Roman latifundia is incorrect.”
Posted by: Constantine | Mar 17 2024 17:06 utc | 565
Mines and slave galleys were the worst-remember ‘Ben Hur’?

Posted by: canuck | Mar 18 2024 11:35 utc | 572