Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 15, 2024
Ukraine – France Already Lost In Odessa

The French president Emmanuel Micron has gone a bit crazy:

Europe’s credibility will be destroyed if Russia is allowed to win in Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron has warned, as he defended his refusal to rule out sending troops to the country.

The war in Ukraine is “existential for our Europe and for France”, Mr Macron said in the interview on France 2 and TF1.

“Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Romanians and the Bulgarians could remain at peace for a second [in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine]?” he asked. “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility would be reduced to zero.”

Micron fails to recognize that Europe does not have any credibility it could lose. Just ask those ~150 countries who have not sanctioned Russia. They know very well that the 2014 U.S./EU coup in Kiev started the mess and that the failure, especially of France and Germany, to force Kiev to implement the Minsk agreements led to its escalation.

Failing as the guarantor of agreements without any attempts to enforce them leaves one's credibility behind.

Trying to regain land for Ukraine that it had lost a decade ago is similar nonsense:

"We are doing everything we can to help Ukraine defeat Russia, because I will say it very simply: There can be no lasting peace if there is no sovereignty, if there is no return to Ukraine's internationally recognized borders, including Crimea," Macron said during the TV interview.

Interestingly Micron does not say how he will attempt to achieve that. The front is cracking everywhere and Ukraine is running out of men who are capable and willing to fight.

France could probably send 30,000 troops to Ukraine but what good could those do? It does not have the troops and equipment for a real fight with Russia. The logistics alone, vulnerable to Russian attacks, would be a nightmare.

The France dream of ruling Odessa already died during the chaos at the end of the first world war 105 years ago (edited machine translation):


December 12, 1918. Renault tanks unloading in Odessa – bigger

Emmanuel Macron's statement about the possibility of introducing French troops to Ukraine and, in particular, to Odessa fell almost on a round date: exactly 105 years ago, the French army was already on Ukrainian territory. Very briefly, though. But the French had a considerable influence on the course of events. Although not at all in favor of Ukraine: they did not allow the capture of Odessa by the troops of the Ukrainian People's Republic, transferred formal power over the city to the Russian White Guards, actually quarreled with the local rule of Hetman Grigoriev, who went over to the side of the Bolsheviks, which played a huge role in the subsequent military collapse of the UPR.

In the end, after several months of being in Southern Palmyra, the French troops were thoroughly decomposed by Bolshevik agitation, sang "Internationale" in pubs, and as a result, the French command decided to leave Odessa in early April 1919, calling it "unloading" the city in order to reduce the food shortage.

There were at that time French, Polish, Serbian, Greek, German, British and other troops involved. The Russians had split into Reds and Whites and several nationalistic Ukrainian groupings tried and failed to win a war against everyone else. The Cossack Hetman Grigoriev was probably the most interesting character of all. As is historically typical for his kind he and his troops fought for practically all parties in the war changing loyalties on a whim whenever convenient.

If France would again go to Odessa who could it really trust in a fight? The Nazi groupings? The government in Kiev which they mostly oppose? The Russia partisans who increase their activities in Ukraine day by day?

How would it react should such a missile strike, even by chance, would hit its troops camp?

Russians With Attitude @RWApodcast – 13:46 UTC · Mar 15, 2024

From what we have seen from Ukrainian media so far, today's Russian missile strike against an AFU temporary base in Odessa killed:
– Alexander Gostishev, former head of the National Police in Odessa, commander of the "Tsunami" "Assault Regiment" (formed from policemen, fought in Bakhmut, part of the "Liut" Brigade, an ongoing project to militarize and mobilize Ukrainian police staff to the frontlines)
– Sergey Tetyukhin, former deputy mayor of Odessa, who volunteered to join the AFU last year
– Dmitry Abramenko, deputy head of the National Police in Odessa
As the day goes on, more names might appear.

The French people for one do not seem to be interested in joining the mess:

In an Odoxa poll, 68 percent of French respondents said Macron's comments on Western troops in Ukraine were "wrong."

Macron's party will likely lose in the upcoming election to the European parliament. Let's hope that other leaders do not fall for the electioneering stunt he is providing with such nonsensical talk.

Comments

@Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 20:33 utc | 402
Probably west of Dniepr.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 16 2024 20:36 utc | 401

Twenty years ago, the United States purchased from Russia Mi-17 helicopters for the Afghan army. Today, these very same helicopters are used to attack Russia. This is not a confidence-building exercise for the U.S.
2022:
The U.S. is transferring a fleet of Mi-17 helicopters, originally purchased for Afghanistan’s deposed government, to Ukraine. (WaPo, 2022/04/20)
2024:
Russian military destroy Ukrainian helicopters … at least one of the destroyed ones (helicopters) was apparently a Russian-made Mi-17V-5, supplied by Moscow to the now-defunct US-propped Afghan army in the early 2010s. (RT)

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 16 2024 20:39 utc | 402

And by the way, the nation that has a high level of interest in Crimea and the Black Sea Coast is the United States. It would greatly help us and damage Russia if we had control of the Black Sea. Most likely that is why the Ukrainians bring up the Crimea. Not so much that they want it, but it is them knowing that their primary backer, the United States, wants control of it.
Posted by: Jmaas | Mar 16 2024 19:53 utc | 392

This.
Nobody cares about Ukraine (or Georgia), democracy or “our values”; everybody cares about Sevastopol and control of the Black Sea.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Mar 16 2024 20:44 utc | 403

Down South | Mar 16 2024 19:36 utc | 387
Every day I thank you

Posted by: ld | Mar 16 2024 20:45 utc | 404

re:Norwegian | Mar 16 2024 20:36 utc | 403
perhaps a bit further?
https://t.me/vicktop55/22632
Lavrov on the possibility of a direct clash between Russia and NATO:
“Apparently, they will be cunning. Or like the Germans: “Here we will remotely direct deadly weapons against Russian cities.” Or they will say that they are just instructors who sit and watch what Ukrainians are doing there.”
What else did the Russian Foreign Minister say in an interview for the program “Evening with Vladimir Solovyov”:
— the refusal of European ambassadors from an invitation to meet with him is rudeness, Russia will take into account this attitude;
— The West wants to give the “Zelensky formula” a final look in Switzerland, and then hand it over to the Russian Federation;
— Zelensky’s “ultimatum” is a dummy: “I’m not even going to discuss it.”
RT in Russian (https://t.me/rt_russian/192680).
“Zelensky’s ultimatum” is not a dummy, it is an ultimatum. And the nomination of this ultimatum by the West and Zelensky speaks to the understanding in the West of the objective fact that this war has only two options for ending and peace – it is the surrender of the West and Ukraine, or the surrender of Russia. The answer to “Zelensky’s ultimatum” was “Dmitry Medvedev’s (https://t.me/vicktop55/22614) ultimatum” published yesterday. There, the existence of Ukraine as a state is excluded and the territory of the former Ukraine is returned to Russia. It is this option that will be the end of the war. Because the West will not be able to defeat Russia on the battlefield without using nuclear weapons against it. But Vladimir Putin spoke about it. Everything is clear here and in the West they realized that, in this case, they would not hide across the ocean

Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 20:48 utc | 405

@Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 20:48 utc | 407
Sure. Everything west of Dniepr is west of Dniepr.

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 16 2024 20:55 utc | 406

re: Norwegian | Mar 16 2024 20:55 utc | 408
LOL

Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 21:03 utc | 407

Wait, the Odessa in spring crowd told me that the Russians would roll over everything post Avdiivka. That the Ukrops couldn’t get lines built in time at Komyshivka or Orlivka. But heck…the Russians still can’t get past Berdiche, etc. Heck the three villages that the Duran and Kalibrated told me had already been taken in FEB (but weren’t).
Oh well…back to muh attrition cope.

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 16 2024 21:06 utc | 408

“Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Romanians and the Bulgarians could remain at peace for a second [in the event of a Russian victory in Ukraine]?” he asked.
That’s a really puzzling comment. Does he mean that those countries would attack Russia if the Ukraine cannot (somehow, against any realism) win? Or is he feverishly imagining that Russia would attack Bulgaria (through Turkey or Romania??)?
And why would Russia reach out to attack Poland? And how? With isolated Kalinigrad as the beach-head?
Micron is imagining simply crazy scenarios.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Mar 16 2024 21:11 utc | 409

Dima says that there are no red lines for use of western weapons while attacking Russia. There is no respect for Russia any more.
This is a serious situation. Ukrainians overloaded Russian AA systems.
Very likely, tomorrow Ukrainian would launch everything they have against Russia. Probably the whole package received from US.
That would make enlightened EU citizens happy.

Posted by: vargas | Mar 16 2024 21:12 utc | 410

Here is the cited selection from “Only a God Can Save Us” from those interested:

SPIEGEL: Let us return to where we began. Would it not be thinkable that we see National Socialism, on the one hand, as the actualization of this “planetary encounter” and, on the other, as the last, worst, strongest and, at the same time, weakest protest against this encounter between “planetary technicity” and modern man? Obviously you have in your person a [certain] polarity that brings it about that many by-products of your activity are to be explained properly only by the fact that different sides of your nature (that do not touch your philosophical core) cling to many things that as a philosopher you know have no firm base — for example, concepts such as “home,” “rootedness” and the like. How do these things go together: planetary technicity and home?
Heidegger: I do not agree. It seems to me that you take technicity in much too absolute [a sense]. I see the situation of man in the world of planetary technicity not as an inextricable and inescapable destiny, but I see the task of thought precisely in this, that within its own limits it helps man as such achieve a satisfactory relationship to the essence of technicity. National Socialism did indeed go in this direction. Those people, however, were far too poorly equipped for thought to arrive at a really explicit relationship to what is happening today and has been underway for the past 300 years.
SPIEGEL: Do the Americans today have this explicit relationship?
Heidegger: They do not have it either. They are still caught up in a thought that, under the guise of pragmatism, facilitates the technical operation and manipulation [of things], but at the same time blocks the way to reflection upon the genuine nature of modern technicity. At the same time, here and there in the USA attempts are being made to become free from pragmatic-positivistic thinking. And who of us would be in a position to decide whether or not one day in Russia or China very old traditions of “thought” may awaken that will help make possible for man a free relationship to the technical world?
SPIEGEL: [But], if none of them has this relationship [now], and the philosopher is unable to give it to them. . . .
Heidegger: How far I come with my own effort at thought and in what way it will be received in the future and fruitfully transformed — this is not for me to decide. In a special lecture on the occasion of the jubilee of the University of Freiburg in 1957, under the title, “The Principle of Identity,”34 I finally ventured to show in a few steps of thought to what extent there is opened up for man in the age of technicity (insofar as we thoughtfully experience what the genuine nature of technicity is based upon) the possibility of experiencing a relationship to an appeal to which he is not only able to attend but of which he is much rather himself an attendant. My thought stands in an unavoidable relationship to the poetry of Hölderlin. I consider Hölderlin not [just] one poet among others whose work the historians of literature may take as a theme [for study]. For me, Höderlin is the poet who points into the future, who waits for a god, and who, consequently, should not remain merely an object of research according to the canons of literary history.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Mar 16 2024 21:18 utc | 411

Hard to believe that any real Ukies are still naive enough to believe that Zelensky and “The West” have their interests at heart.

Posted by: Wisco | Mar 16 2024 21:22 utc | 412

It is clear that the West is going to attack Russia very soon.
Why do we see no leaks like during Vietnam war (Pentagon papers)?

Posted by: vargas | Mar 16 2024 21:27 utc | 413

It is clear that the West is going to attack Russia very soon.
Why do we see no leaks like during Vietnam war (Pentagon papers)?
Posted by: vargas | Mar 16 2024 21:27 utc | 415

And another agent provocateur. Who is spreading lies like all ukronazis supporters.

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 21:33 utc | 414

Consider the unlikeliness of the sentence by replacing one capitol for another.
Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 16 2024 20:16 utc | 397

Very good catch.
Like for Eurovision.
The west is becoming more fascist every day.
They said for months that Ukraine is winning, and now that Russia will not stop at the Ukraine border.
So which one it is? Lying cowards!

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 21:36 utc | 415

Hard to believe that any real Ukies are still naive enough to believe that Zelensky and “The West” have their interests at heart.
Posted by: Wisco | Mar 16 2024 21:22 utc | 414

They have to kidnap people to find meat to throw in meat grinders. One such victim got training for 2 weeks before being sent to the grinder. A phone (found by the Russians on the corpse of a fellow ukrainian) with a video is testimony that this man knew nothing about weapons before being kidnapped.
Now they want to send women to the grinders.

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 21:41 utc | 416

Posted by: vargas | Mar 16 2024 21:27 utc | 415
“Why do we see no leaks like during Vietnam war (Pentagon papers)?”
Because the US and Russia have basically swapped ideologies since that Ellsberg time 50 years ago. Ellsberg and many others wouldn’t be given the big MSM platform, nor the accolades he received then if he was doing similar now. It’s all about who/whom. The 60s-70s “liberals” hoi polloi used to be anti-war and “peaceniks”, now they are the biggest war mongers against Russia-Russia-Russia and Putin-Putin-Putin. Propaganda works the same everywhere.

Posted by: Wisco | Mar 16 2024 21:42 utc | 417

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 16 2024 21:06 utc | 410
And another agent provocateur. Who understands nothing about strategy. Anonymaous of course. Bye, bye!

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 21:45 utc | 418

So Zelenskyy and the West want to regain all lost territories. Donbas and of all places Crimea?
Here’s the remedy: You must take Moscow, being the ruling center. However.
Field Marshall Bernard Law Montgomery: Rule 1, page 1, Book of War: “Do not March on Moscow”
Goodluck and may microbe Macron & other Western psychopaths be damned by the Gods.
Butchering, slaughter, morbid wasting of human lives: incarcerate them in a gulag near Kolyma with Russian guards and Chinese re-educators. May after many years, after confessing everything, implicating everybody, the-hoped-for-bullets enter their brains. Real bullets.

Posted by: Zoals Ik Het Zie | Mar 16 2024 21:54 utc | 419

Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 20:48 utc | 407–
What was published from that interview can be read here, “Evening with Vladimir Solovyov & Lavrov”. I placed Medvedev’s complete “Formula” in the comments to that thread.
And here’s my latest, “The Fabric of Reality”, that is my comments on Crooke’s outstanding essay that to my amazement no barfly has noticed.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 21:55 utc | 420

Circumstances @ 361
Well,well,well.
Thanks

Posted by: Suresh | Mar 16 2024 21:55 utc | 421

Posted by: Stierlitz | Mar 16 2024 14:35 utc | 304
Onfray (my emphasis):
“The sovereignist that I am can only unconditionally deplore the invasion of Ukraine, a free and autonomous country, by the sole will of Putin who returns the Western glove by claiming in turn, like BHL and his friends, a right of interference to legitimize its imperialism! The whole sovereignist theme is validated by what is happening. Because what is the fight of the Ukrainians if not that of a country and a people who do not want to lose their sovereignty and do not want their vassalization by Putin’s Russia?
The Ukrainians are right against Putin, who should not be confused with the Russian people – or even with anything Russian:”
Putin = Botul…
“free and auotnomous country”. Sure…! Not a single word on the ukronazis or the banderists.
What a moron.
Btw he migrated from Sud-Radio to CNews which is an extreme right radio. Asinus asinum fricat.

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 21:58 utc | 422

Posted by: vargas | Mar 16 2024 21:27 utc | 415
“Why do we see no leaks like during Vietnam war (Pentagon papers)?”
We did actually see one leak by one of those old-school old-timers from the 70s, Seymour Hersh.
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

Posted by: Wisco | Mar 16 2024 22:00 utc | 423

‼️🇷🇺💥🇫🇷🏴‍☠️🇵🇱🇬🇪 All night long, NATO aircraft took out the seriously wounded who fell under our missiles yesterday in the Odessa Mriya rest house.
In the morning, they were still pulling corpses out from under the rubble. Mostly 🇫🇷 French, 🇵🇱 Poles and 🇬🇪 Georgians. Shortly before that, 🇺🇸 Americans and 🇩🇪 Germans also lived there. These were the operators and staff of the SAM complexes.
The exact figure for the killed mercenaries will soon be told by the chief doctor of the 411 military hospital of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Odessa, who manages the morgues on the territory.

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/104581

‼️🇷🇺💥🇫🇷🏴‍☠️🇵🇱🇬🇪 The official data of the mercenaries killed in Odessa is 21 people. In fact, about the same number will not survive. They were taken to the intensive care units of the city with serious injuries.
11 people were immediately taken to Romania by NATO helicopters. There are about 60 more people with injuries of varying severity.
‼️The mercenaries were not only stationed in Mriya, there was a coordination headquarters for the entire foreign legion in the south of Ukraine.

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/104582

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 16 2024 22:01 utc | 424

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 21:55 utc | 422
It is Karl Rove who said that we create reality, and while you study that reality, we create another reality.
It looks like today Russia and the BRICS are creating a new reality to which the west is unable to adapt, let alone to study, being in complete denial of their power being lost bit by bit.

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 22:02 utc | 425

reganh48 | Mar 16 2024 12:11 utc | 275–
Thanks for combing your memory and your reply. All bits help!
canuck | Mar 16 2024 12:55 utc | 280–
IMO, a big part of the answer to your query is within Crooke’s latest essay I just linked to, which is also to say some of it lies within Todd’s analysis. My seemingly cryptic observation that we as Humanity have been here before historically is important as it relates to the Jungian philosophy that’s noted by Crooke but not elaborated upon. Plato’s Cave is the message that Humanity’s been in this situation before, just not globally as today.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 22:10 utc | 426

Dima is right. Czech Republic and France are about to let Banderists strike with MLRS on downtown Belgorod, civilians areas. Or destroy Crimean bridge, Or sink Russian navy.
France and Czech Republic (and any other NATO member, for that matters) are foreseeable : when they will give nukes to Kiev, they will still pretend not to be belligerant. What is not foreseeable is Russia’s response. When children in Donetsk are killed by CAESAR it can still be answered with Avdeevka capture.
But this… How to consider NATO countries as worth of any diplomatic relations after that. How not get in war against them ? And if war it is, how to punish them without any nuke strike on their soil ??
I just hope Russia won’t shake. When Khroutchev bow to Kennedy during Cuba crisis, it was the beginning of the end for Soviet Union.

Posted by: America is defeated | Mar 16 2024 22:11 utc | 427

Posted by: Stierlitz | Mar 16 2024 14:35 utc | 304
“Poutine est-il fasciste ? Oui, selon Michel Onfray.”
Is Putin fascist? Yes, according to Michel Onfray. As Putin once said: it is the one who says it who he is.

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 22:13 utc | 428

When Khroutchev bow to Kennedy during Cuba crisis, it was the beginning of the end for Soviet Union.
Posted by: America is defeated | Mar 16 2024 22:11 utc | 429
It was not Khrushtshyov who bowed to JFK, it was just the opposite.

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 22:17 utc | 429

Naive | Mar 16 2024 22:02 utc | 427–
Karl Rove may have said that but he in no way created anything. At best they tried to create an alternative reality but they failed miserably and further failed to attain their policy goals, which was excellent for Humanity. Why? Because the deindustrialization process and dumbing-down of Western intellect and related abilities was already 20+ years old and accelerating. The unrealistic Bubble Economies created by Greenspan was already creating Bubble #3 when Rove uttered his inanities. Do take note how that crew has vanished to enjoy their takings.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 22:20 utc | 430

Moscow, March 15 (SANA) The Russian Defense Ministry announced that more than 6,745 people were killed or injured and 915 drones and dozens of Western missiles were shot down over the past week.
The military entity said in its weekly report on the progress of the Russian military operation that during the period from 9 to 15 of this month, Russian forces launched 50 high-precision attacks against Ukrainian military airports, drone depots, unmanned ships, fuels. and weapons warehouses, as well as against sites and concentrations of mercenaries and foreign forces of the Ukrainian regime.
The ministry explained that Russian forces reinforced their positions on the Kupyansk axis in Kharkov province, repelled 22 attacks, eliminated 305 soldiers and destroyed 3 tanks and numerous armored vehicles and cars.
Likewise, the ministry noted that Russian forces foiled infiltration attempts by Ukrainian troops into the territory of Belgorod and Kursk provinces, eliminated more than 550 Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed 16 tanks and 19 armored vehicles, including 11 “ Bradley” American and other vehicles.
The report details that the Russian army repelled 71 Ukrainian attacks in the axes of Avdiivka, southern Donetsk and Kherson, leaving more than 3,960 soldiers dead and wounded, destroying equipment and weapons, including an American tank ” Abrams” and dozens of Western vehicles.
In addition, Russian forces devastated several American-made “Himars” and “Patriot” missile systems, as well as an “S-300” system and some radar stations.
Russian air defenses also shot down a MiG-29 fighter, two Mi-8 helicopters and 915 Ukrainian drones.

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 22:35 utc | 431

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 22:20 utc | 432
Yes!

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 22:36 utc | 432

Posted by: vargas | Mar 16 2024 21:27 utc | 415
“Why do we see no leaks like during Vietnam war (Pentagon papers)?”
We did actually see one leak by one of those old-school old-timers from the 70s, Seymour Hersh.
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream
Posted by: Wisco | Mar 16 2024 22:00 utc | 425
————————————————–
vargas, read the NYT, currently the mouthpiece for the CIA, which brought you decades of European interference. That is the single best hint of near term US policy direction.
Seymour Hersh got Nordstream completely wrong, other than that it fact, it was destroyed.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 16 2024 22:38 utc | 433

karlof1 | Mar 15 2024 15:54 said THIS:
“They found out that the German-sounding names did identify Americans. Not only that: none less than the former and the current Commanders of the U.S. Pacific Air Forces.”
Biographies of these two gentlemen on Wikipedia:
Kevin Schneider – Kenneth”>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Wilsbach”>Kenneth Wilsbach
Posted by: LongCovid | Mar 16 2024 14:21 utc | 301
———————————————————-
Both you guys are gems. Thank you.
vargas, please, take note.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 16 2024 22:39 utc | 434

More and more countries around the world prefer to keep their own gold and foreign currency reserves at home, gradually sending them back from Western countries. These decisions are dictated by the freezing of Russian assets, the value of which is around $300 billion.
Thus, around 68% of the leaders of the world’s central banks declare their desire to conserve these economic reserves. Two years ago, about half of central bank leaders preferred to keep precious metals in the West – mainly the USA and Britain. Experts estimate that by 2025, 75% of countries will prefer to completely get rid of such dependence on the West.

Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 22:42 utc | 435

Down South | Mar 16 2024 19:36 utc | 387
Every day I thank you
Posted by: ld | Mar 16 2024 20:45 utc | 406
————————————————
Let me join in expressing my gratitude and appreciation. The details are necessary items in this discourse.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 16 2024 22:49 utc | 436

I imagine Russia will agree not to cross over the Polish and Romanian borders.
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 20:33 utc | 402
Deveslu, Romania; Redzikowo, Poland; Rota, Spain. Aegis Ashore radars with Standard Missile 3 interceptors. Disputed by Russia as an American violation of the INF treaty. Being set up
as we speak.

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 16 2024 22:50 utc | 437

@ Norwegian who is asking me which East time frame is appropriate for my prognostication and has chided me in the past for making such prognostications.
I refuse to answer on the grounds it may incriminate me….grin
I only write what my body tells me to write….
Pure conjecture that is placed within a context that is believable….
I read The Art Of Conjecture by de Jouvenel in the late 60’s and express such prognostications when so moved.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2024 22:52 utc | 438

Posted by: Down South | Mar 16 2024 11:09 utc | 267
Notice the inability of the Ukrainians to operate above brigade strength, seriously impacting their offensive capabilities and resulting in a statement, not a roll back and consolidation, even though they achieved a numerical superiority.
The fighting, erupting all across the line of contact, is just the spasms of a dying regime, dangerous in defeat, but unable to stop its inevitable fate.
Posted by: Milites | Mar 16 2024 14:40 utc | 305
——————————————————-
Extending my appreciation to both of you as this winds down WW II style for another year or more. Gems you truly are, holding this fort since the beginning.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 16 2024 22:54 utc | 439

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 21:55 utc | 422
“It is Karl Rove who said that we create reality, and while you study that reality, we create another reality.”
Posted by: Naive | Mar 16 2024 22:02 utc | 427
At the time 2001 or 2002 Karl Rove was correct; the US was so powerful at that time they could actually mend reality into their own image,… for awhile.
Things have changed in the US.
The disastrous wars, sucking out the middle class, financialization, arrogance, a depleted diplomatic corps, de industrialization, Wokeness, educational deficiencies, institutions losing confidence of the people voila in 20 some years they have destroyed, by their own actions, the Golden Goose.
Pathetic!

Posted by: canuck | Mar 16 2024 22:55 utc | 440

As a matter of speculation, I think Macron’s problem is the loss of empire.
Posted by: Jmaas | Mar 16 2024 20:03 utc | 395
—————————————————
I, along with most MoA barflies here, think that the guy is ‘not big enough for his britches.’
American idiom can be so rich. For the over half the century that I have been here, I appreciate the colorful language, Texas contributing its very own, e.g. ‘All hat and no cattle.’ Given Micon’s performance to date, he is scoring ‘Lower than a snake belly in a wagon rut.’

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 16 2024 23:04 utc | 441

Good points made here……you can not activate an offensive operation against RF forces using brigade or regimental sized units.
You need to stage offensive operations with divisional, multi divisional or army sized groups.
Having no air support, UFA units basically can not field those divisional sized units, because those large scale concentrations are immediately subjected to missile and glide bomb and drone attacks.
UFA forces are done………Kieve needs to sue for peace on RF terms and quickly too, the huge collapse is coming and very soon, within the next month. LOL

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Mar 16 2024 23:06 utc | 442

they have destroyed, by their own actions, the Golden Goose.
Pathetic!
Posted by: canuck | Mar 16 2024 22:55 utc | 442
—————————————————-
karlof1 has a different and much deeper, more abstract take, which I find not easy to follow. There are different takes on what constitutes the ‘Golden Goose.’
I credit the transition points as 9/11, G.W. Bush and the Bamster. I hated it as all can be when I found myself working for DHS, a G.W. Bush created monstrosity.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 16 2024 23:10 utc | 443

Just watched most of “20 days in Mariupol” – a good bit of footage from the maternity hospital where the camera crew was hanging out with a bunch of Ukrainian soldiers and a police spokesperson. Footage only of civilian casualties – the most heart rending they had no doubt. No mention that the military presence at the hospital makes it a target. Later they visit an apartment basement where civilians are hiding and someone says “The fucking Ukrainian army is shelling us!” and the soldiers try to insist that it’s the Russian planes bombing them. The narrator says “the city is dying”, but we know that almost half the population is still there. Shameless propaganda without a shred or even pretense of objectivity.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 16 2024 23:13 utc | 444

“Every year a third of the reactor rods are renewed. Roughly speaking, you could say a nuclear power plant has at least two years of fuel any moment.”
I don’t think so, they don’t stock that much on-site. I read some nuclear expert who said he figured most reactors would have about 3-6 months supply on-site, the rest of the year’s supply would be assumed to be on the way via continuing shipments. Which won’t happen when the supply dries up, whatever is already on-site will be all there is.
Even if the reactor rod supply on-site is 2 years at every reactor in The West, the point is there is a finite limit, and it will surely be reached in most areas before any alternate supply comes online. Westinghouse USA still has an older smallish reactor-rod making system, but they can’t possibly supply all the customers, which is why they buy from Russia.
So if Russia cuts off supply, prioritzation comes into effect – US reactors get suppplied first by Westinghouse, and the ones in most important regions get supplied first, and not all in the US can be supplied. France may be OK, but probably not, they get uranium from Africa, which is a problem, I don’t know if they are even getting any now. Most other Western nations with nuclear reactors have no alternative supply and no production capacity at all AFAIK. Many Western reactors would be out of supply soon enough. Whatever nuclear fuel rod production capacity that exists in The West, it does not come close to meeting all demands, Russia is the only possible supplier that has capacity and ability to actually supply all needs, until they don’t.
The problem is not shortage of uranium, it can be found laying on the ground in many places. The practical problem blocking supply other than Russia is that absolutely no one wants the refining and rod manufacturing process to be done in their country. Who wants to have large radioactive lagoons and mountains of toxic radioactive waste in their backyard? Nobody. You want that production site near your house? Russia inherited the large capacity supply system from The Soviet Union, that does not exist anywhere else. Even if an all-out effort is made to create a new supply system somewhere else, that will be years out, long after the rods run out for many or most reactors. The lights won’t go out everywhere, but the economic effect will be the almost the same as if it did.
Note there was much talk from The West about cutting of Russian reactor rod supply by sanctioning Rosatom a while back, and then those plans were quietly dropped, they still buy from Russia, and don’t talk about it. Don’t ask, don’t tell. This issue has been endlessly debated already, the conclusions remain the same, from what I see.

Posted by: FUBAR111111 | Mar 16 2024 23:22 utc | 445

re: karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 21:55 utc | 422
Many thanks! The Crooke essay is remarkably insightful. It could also be titled “The War on Critical Thinking”.
I fully agree with your assessment that “ . . . elites can no longer be considered conservatives of any sort, neo or otherwise“.
I think psychohistorian would find Crooke’s words to be interesting:
The rush ‘free money’ at zero interest, called Quantitative Monetary Easing or QE – was launched in Japan in 2001. The total credit created by central banks through quantitative easing, or QE, is now more than $30 trillion.
QE quietly became the defining idea of our time. And as QE drove inequality, it polarised politics.
For the past 15 years, every major development in the Western economy and the cultural superstructure has rested upon it
: the explosive growth of social media and Big Tech, the property boom, the gig economy, Elon Musk, cryptocurrencies, fake news and woke capitalism.
Trillions flooded into the financial system. It was magic to the financialised world, but it had another effect too —
The rush of ‘free money’ gave Big Tech the power to buy up platforms that previously had relied on selling the news. They were replaced by entities beholden to advertisers that only cared about grabbing people’s attention and selling it to the highest bidder.
A new economy of attention arose — a machine for turning distraction and polarisation into investor returns.
The Power Structures ‘got it’: Words no longer need to have objective meanings in this market. Everything is about ‘attention’, however achieved. True or false. That’s what the advertisers wanted. Words could mean what those in power say they mean. The ‘truth’ behind the narrative became irrelevant.

Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 23:23 utc | 446

Thank you,karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 21:55 utc | 422, for the Alistaire Crooke essay. Here is a passage which strikes home for me:

“…The underlying reality, however, is that individual life stories of members of a community become enmeshed and intertwined. And the entanglement of our stories surges out to form the everyday weft and weave of communal life. The latter can and should never become funneled into a single ‘way of thinking’ — generated abstractly and imposed by Central Command.
Defending historical holism, however, implies ultimately, the defence of unique existence, in spite of any superficial contradictions within.
To defend the existence of your people, their unique culture and way of life as an organic, integral, and holistic culmination of the people’s historical existence, in itself is History viewed as a living organic thing…”

Not to spoil Crooke’s ending, but in Plato’s final dialogue, the Laws, the two participants are on their way to another cave, I think heading uphill (will have to check) — the cave of Zeus. When my power comes back on I will take a fresh look at that dialogue, candlelight being not quite sufficient.

Posted by: juliania | Mar 16 2024 23:24 utc | 447

re: FUBAR111111 | Mar 16 2024 23:22 utc | 447
you wrote:
Note there was much talk from The West about cutting of Russian reactor rod supply by sanctioning Rosatom a while back, and then those plans were quietly dropped, they still buy from Russia, and don’t talk about it. Don’t ask, don’t tell. This issue has been endlessly debated already, the conclusions remain the same, from what I see.
The deluded elite seem to think the US is immune from the same sort of power shortages the fools in the EU have created for themselves by going all-in on the Russophobic Ukraine War. I think one of these days they are going to wake up and find that Russian LEU is no longer for sale to the US.
Oops, there goes 20% of the electricity generated in the US from nuclear power.

Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 23:29 utc | 448

I posted on the current open thread a reply to Peter AU1 and Scorpion which considers a similar theme to that of Alistair Crooke in the essay you posted, karlof1 at 422. I had not read Crooke’s essay until now; thank you again.

Posted by: juliania | Mar 16 2024 23:31 utc | 449

Brief history
Brief history of the Anglo-Empire 2.0 latest version of the Roman empire:
(1) The Wall Street wars (1846-) superbly summarized in “War is a racket”. It is difficult to close the date because this history is entangled with the great crisis of the Anglo-empire 1.0 and last ‘end of the world’ (1914-1949)
(2) The Adolph 2 wars, where the Adolph left off Washington picked up (1945/47-1991)
(3) The Ziocon Wars (1997/2000-2020)
(4) The final delirium (2021-2049)

Posted by: Simon | Mar 16 2024 23:31 utc | 450

Dima is right. Czech Republic and France are about to let Banderists strike with MLRS on downtown Belgorod, civilians areas. Or destroy Crimean bridge, Or sink Russian navy.

While I wholeheartedly endorse Dima, he sometimes gets in front of his skis. He stated in today’s video that something really big will happen on March 17. He thinks that Zelensky will pull out all the stops.
It’s already March 17 in Moscow. I like when folks put a time box on their predictions, because it makes them testable.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Mar 16 2024 23:31 utc | 451

This one is for the Soft/Shadow/Feral/varga? variety cunts.
“Press Secretary of the Ukrainian Air Force Yuriy Ihnat has been fired.
Recently, absurd claims about air defense successes about 10 Su-34s, 20 Kinzhals, and 90% effectiveness of air defense have been ridiculed and provoked a public reaction”.

Posted by: Suresh | Mar 16 2024 23:34 utc | 452

Thanks for the replies. The visual I get is from Michael J. Fox’s antagonist in the Back to the Future series of movies who keeps getting reality dumped on him in the form of manure–The Elite attempt to construct an alternative reality has defecated on them and they can’t seem to free themselves from the mess they’ve created for themselves.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 23:35 utc | 453

Karl Rove was a fat and bald nothinburger from.Sparks, Nevada, a mouthpiece without any character. Kind of like Trump.

Posted by: Wisco | Mar 16 2024 23:37 utc | 454

“I posted on the current open thread a reply to Peter AU1 and Scorpion which considers a similar theme to that of Alistair Crooke in the essay you posted, karlof1 at 422. I had not read Crooke’s essay until now; thank you again.”
Posted by: juliania | Mar 16 2024 23:31 utc | 451
Sorry but that just reads like bureaucratic nonsense, to be polite.

Posted by: Wisco | Mar 16 2024 23:42 utc | 455

Medvedev listed one important requirement in his terms for Ukrainian surrender (thanks to Karlofi for posting). See number 6 in the list:
6. Official recognition by the provisional parliament of the former “Ukraine” that its entire territory is the territory of the Russian Federation. Adoption of the act on the reunification of the territories of the former “Ukraine” with Russia.

Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 23:48 utc | 456

@ Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 23:23 utc | 448 with the response to karlof1 and the Crooke piece with a shout out to me about the $30+ trillion of printing press running since 2008.
I wrote here for some time about being able to hear the printing presses running continuously after 2008 when the US debt was $800 billion and now it is $34+ trillion.
I don’t remember getting my $100 million, do you?
Where did all that money go?
What is the US public going to do about that odious debt?
Interesting times ahead if we don’t go extinct…..

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2024 23:56 utc | 457

Is Alastair Crooke to be trusted or can a leopard change its spots?
Crooke started his career in London banking. He later worked for nearly 30 years in the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) under diplomatic cover in Northern Ireland, South Africa, Colombia, Pakistan and the Middle East. His early work included helping provide weapons to jihadists fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Posted by: Siddhartha | Mar 16 2024 23:58 utc | 458

I can only imagine in a somewhat masochistic way what a media “conversation” between Bernard-Henri Lévy and Le Micron would look like. One cunt who deserves a cruel and horrible death is BHL Death from directed contempt and disgust.

Posted by: Ново З | Mar 17 2024 0:01 utc | 459

Seriously though. Many, manyabsolutely enlightening posts are on this here thread. It seems now to be devolving to the usual bitch-and -moan garbage about meaningless crap like “The Patriarchy” as if that is still a thing.

Posted by: Wosco | Mar 17 2024 0:05 utc | 460

@ Siddhartha | Mar 16 2024 23:58 utc | 460 who is questioning Crooke’s trustworthiness
I suggest you go read the background of Michael Hudson who worked for and provided strategy for the elite and now is exposing the historical background of our usurious form of social organization in a magnificent manner, IMO……I use to be critical of Michael because he didn’t call out private finance as clearly as I wanted it shown to be evil but now appreciate and respect his due diligence.
Measure folks by what they are saying and bringing to the public discourse currently. YMMV

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 17 2024 0:09 utc | 461

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was dissolved on 26 December 1991
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Maps_of_the_world_in_the_1990s#/media/File:Flag_Map_of_The_World_(1990).png
macron .. eats crow

Posted by: T S | Mar 17 2024 0:25 utc | 462

Is Alastair Crooke to be trusted or can a leopard change its spots?
Crooke started his career in London banking. He later worked for nearly 30 years in the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) under diplomatic cover in Northern Ireland, South Africa, Colombia, Pakistan and the Middle East. His early work included helping provide weapons to jihadists fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan.
Posted by: Siddhartha | Mar 16 2024 23:58 utc | 460
There’s a whole crew of these former operatives from the intelligence services, the military, corporate media and institutions of the executive like judgeships now leading the ‘opposition’ to the ‘Deep State,’ the incompetents, the corrupt, the greedy and stupid that comprise government as we know it and the ‘swamp.’ Crooke, Larry Johnson, Ray McGovern, Scott Ritter, Douglass MacGregor, Judge Napolitano, Tucker Carlson. Other than MacGregor, who was always on the side of right and justice (cough), they all have ‘redemption arcs’ that explain how they went from significant operators in the imperialist apparatus to enlightened opposition to the gang of thieves currently in control. Interesting…

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 17 2024 0:25 utc | 463

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 21:55 utc | 422
Excellent! As always…Thank you for your efforts.

Posted by: donten | Mar 17 2024 0:28 utc | 464

Their current outspoken views are probably due to their age – Alastair Crooke is 74 and Michael Hudson is 84.

Posted by: Siddhartha | Mar 17 2024 0:28 utc | 465

Siddhartha | Mar 16 2024 23:58 utc | 460–
Would Crooke write any of the things he’s written or uttered the words he’s said during just this year, plus he made a video address to the Conference to free Julian Assange just a few days ago–did you even know about it or try to further inform of its happening?
And as with Pq, can you provide any evidence that he’s not on the side he says he is? Or like Pq, are empty accusations all you can hurl? Have you read his book, The Essence of the Islamist Revolution? Here’s a review by Electronic Intifada, “Book review: Alastair Crooke’s “Resistance: The Essence of the Islamist Revolution” from 2009. The review is mixed and IMO fair. However, if Crooke lacked the credibility you and Pq says he does, then why does he have the trust of one of the West Asian Resistance’s important media outlets, Al-Mayadeen? And then there’re those who have vetted his credibility for their programs, like Judge Napolitano.
IMO, Crooke has a unique background based on his experiences, but isn’t nearly as blind as Larry Johnson is about the nature of the beast he once worked for. And I’ll ask, did you even bother to read his essay? Or like Pq, does your assumption about Crooke’s nature inform you it’s a waste of time?

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 17 2024 0:31 utc | 466

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2024 23:56 utc | 459
There are basically two options.
Go back to monetizing the debt bubble, turn on QE again.
The problem is the interest rate which is high in context of ZIRP-NIRP. They can put on QE, but then the central bank will go even deeper into negative capital and accelerate the distrust and collapse of FIAT (it will happen anyway). Inflation will also go to the moon.
Or they can allow the debt bubble to implode, and at the same time you see the true meaning of ’emperor has no clothes’. Suddenly you are wondering why 50 % of western GDP was wiped out. Because to even sustain 0-1% growth require 10 % year-on-year growth of national debt. Plus all the hidden debt liabilities in pensions etc.
The third, less obvious solution is to create a global crisis that will crush demand and hide the credit bubble bursting, like another Plandemic, or… *DRUM ROLL*… war with Russia ought to do it.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 17 2024 0:39 utc | 467

Michael Hudson’s been outspoken since the publication of Super Imperialism in 1972–that’s 52 years, close to a lifetime for many. And to hear him talk about the quality of his university education during the 1960s is to hear more critiques of the system and for him and us clues to how it was/is manipulated.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 17 2024 0:41 utc | 468

They keep talking about defeating Russia as if it was normal to make such a statement. How can they openly claim such aggressive objectives without even taking the time to properly explain how they justify them. Let’s admit for the sake of argument that Russia did something wrong by intervening in Ukraine, how does this justify France having a say in this? Let’s also admit that Russia is a dictatorship, so are many countries in the world (including many who claim being exemplary democracies), how does that justify France wanting to defeat Russia specifically?
I keep wondering how public speech has been able to reach such a low in terms of lack of common sense and objectivity without their people reacting to having to listen to such nonsense by feeling like its time for a lynching mob to storm the castle and get rid of the deranged warmongering rulers before they bring devastation to their countries.
Unfortunately the answer to my question lies in generalized stupidity. The public discourse 20 years ago being of a much better quality in terms of paying as much attention to coherence as was allowed by the duplicity of the underlying intentions was apparently not a reflection of public opinion’s maturity but rather a courtesy extended by the ruling class. This is now over, we now get a discourse that matches the average intellect of the sheeple.

Posted by: Lebanese | Mar 17 2024 0:41 utc | 469

unimperator | Mar 17 2024 0:39 utc | 469–
There’s another option: Increase taxation on the 10% and all corporations by taxing those areas where their earnings actually accrue so revenues can vastly increase so the debt can be paid down. Otherwise, the debt gets written off entirely which means the 10% lose most of their assets as they consist of the 90% and the government’s debt. Obviously, the 10% want to avoid both, but the path they want to take isn’t at all sustainable and will eventually collapse.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 17 2024 0:46 utc | 470

The disastrous wars, sucking out the middle class, financialization, arrogance, a depleted diplomatic corps, de industrialization, Wokeness, educational deficiencies, institutions losing confidence of the people voila in 20 some years they have destroyed, by their own actions, the Golden Goose.
Pathetic!
Posted by: canuck | Mar 16 2024 22:55 utc | 442
Canuck,
You really need to read Marx, Lenin and Stalin. They have a very deep structural analysis of capitalism and imperialism that might adjust your perspective on this issue. In a nutshell, the mechanisms of capitalist accumulation have structural contradictions that lead inevitably to crisis. Capitalist crises are resolved by destroying rival producers through gobbling up weak competitors either in the ‘business’ world or through imperialist war. We see both of these things happening in the ‘EUkraine war’ of the US against Europe. The result is further concentration of capital, the cycle repeats, and capital comes under the control of a tiny minority of the elites. Because of this concentration of capital, crisis become more and more severe.
The Golden Goose was therefor always going to flap from one crisis to another. ‘They’ did not kill it, it kills itself and must be revived with the lifeblood of ‘outside’ wealth. Thus all the financial manipulations since the Dot/Com bubble, 2008, etc; and the constant aggressive wars in MENA to control energy- not always to seize control, but, as in the case of Libya, to prevent others from exploiting it. These keep the goose flapping a little longer, never mind the consequences for everyone who doesn’t own the goose. All of the brutality of the ruling class is a rational necessity for anyone who makes their living via capitalist accumulation. Vampires gotta suck blood.

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 17 2024 0:47 utc | 471

Macron is just one head of the hydra. The idea was for a while to get NATO on the ground in a non formal way. Hence many bilateral security treaties Bandera-Berlin, Bandera-London, Bandera-Warzsawa, Bandera-Paris. All of these countries are each NATO but by getting into alliances under their sole national banner, they enter Ukraine front without juridically being NATO.
Of course it makes no difference seen from Moskva and these troops will be hit equally well.
So it may seem that Macron is doing something off his own, but in fact not.
The weakness of this setting is that no EU country individually has the manpower to support a real war operation on the scale of whhat is happening.
France is committing ~1500 troops, they send 1/3 Légion Etrangère, 2/3 regular army. They would like to send 100% LE but not possible because they have to keep a minimal level of presence at their usual African posts, and these are already crubling. The advantage of LE is that nobody complains the casualties, no families to mourn them. 100% légios not beeing possible then wih 1/3 and 2/3 regulars, it means that if go front line, there will be french families complaining loss of their children and husbands.
Macron is going to face hard times. He is a walking corpse.
But then also other EU regimes doing the same.
No single country in EU , even the most populated ones, are going to take the amount of casualties that Ukraine’s population is suffering since mars 2022.
That’s what El Gringo in Casa Blanca doesn’t obviously understand.
Not even to mention the dumb prettentttious blondine Scandinavians.

Posted by: Timur | Mar 17 2024 0:49 utc | 472

Posted by: Siddhartha | Mar 16 2024 23:58 utc | 460
Just go to his articles, e.g. https://www.eurasiareview.com/13032024-out-of-touch-with-reality-white-house-fails-to-navigate-the-israeli-re-calibration-oped/
And decide by yourself.
I read his articles, watch his videos, and use his analyses. A good source for sanity.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Mar 17 2024 0:50 utc | 473

as for the practical details, and history of Macron decision:
23 Juin 2023: Lors d’un Conseil de Défense restreint, Macron confié : “l’année prochaine nous devrons envoyer des mecs en Ukraine”
Voici maintenant des informations publiés sur des réseaux russes et que je me suis permis de corriger ou compléter (précédé par un *)
20 février 2024 : Macron charge le ministère de la Défense d’étudier l’envoi de 3 compagnies de la Légion étrangère* en Ukraine.
* LE dans la tête de Macron ce n’est pas par rapport à un critère d’efficacité mais certainement pour être moins “emmerdé” par les familles en cas de pertes.
27 février 2024, 3 compagnies de combat de la Légion sont déployées en Ukraine * et/ou RPMIA, et en Roumanie (où il y a déjà un GTIA d’env. 1000 hommes.
5 mars 2024: l’état-major francais approuve le tableau d’effectifs d’un GTIA de 1 500 hommes.
Ce GTIA doit comprendre
– 6 Compagnies d’infanterie mécanisées et motorisées,*
– 2 Cies du génie,
– 1 Cie de logistique
– 1 Cie de commandement.
* et certainement des unités de blindés, d’artillerie et de défense antiaérienne.
Face au problème de disponibilité de la Légion (* déploiements actuels en OM et OPEX) le ratio final sera de 1/3 LE pour 2/3 réguliers.
Première quinzaine de mars, le GTIA a débuté la coordination opérationnelle sur le polygone de La Courtine. Il est prévu d’achever les préparatifs pour un déploiement en Ukraine d’ici la mi-avril 2024.

Posted by: Timur | Mar 17 2024 0:50 utc | 474

“Is Alastair Crooke to be trusted or can a leopard change its spots?”
He seems very good on many issues but not sure I totally trust him either. He seems to hold back. But he wouldn’t be discussed anywhere at all if he called it all out. Gotta be careful.

Posted by: Wisco | Mar 17 2024 0:53 utc | 475

Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 16 2024 22:01 utc | 426
Tonight Dima reported about 60, partly high ranking, officers from several NATO countries among the casualties of the Odessa attack. He mentioned some names and I found one of the two German names, one Jürgen Schmidt. Might be Brigadegeneral Jürgen Schmidt, head of department at the Bundesamt für Ausrüstung, Informationstechnik und Nutzung der Bundeswehr which is a federal office of the defence department in charge of armament / supply.

Posted by: Moses | Mar 17 2024 0:56 utc | 476

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 17 2024 0:31 utc | 468
My point about Crooke and Hudson is that they are now making their ‘anti-establishment’ comments in their dotage when they are (presumably) financially secure and ready to meet their maker. A real ‘hero’ is willing to do that no matter what the repercussions.
As regards the Julian Assange tragedy, I’m well informed on that subject having read Nils Melzer’s ‘The Trial of Julian Assange – A Story of Persecution’.

Posted by: Siddhartha | Mar 17 2024 1:14 utc | 477

I try to avoid MSM as much as I can but this caught my eye on Apple News.
“Ukraine’s Victories Over Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Reopen Vital Grain Corridor” in WSJ.
Is that true?
There are over 400 comments here, I don’t know whether this was mentioned.

Posted by: Calgary guy | Mar 17 2024 1:31 utc | 478

@ Siddhartha | Mar 17 2024 1:14 utc | 478
I’m utterly indifferent as to the question of whether Crooke and Hudson merit “hero” status; all that matters to me is whether they are articulating honest and intelligent analyses. Sometimes even reformed villains (e.g. Jeffrey Sachs) can be especially useful.
Oh, and you really ought to familiarize yourself with the definition of “dotage.”

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 17 2024 1:45 utc | 479

Re: Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 20:33 utc | 402

re: “France will propose to Russia a ceasefire in Ukraine during the Olympic Games”
And exactly where will Russian troops be at that time?
I imagine Russia will agree not to cross over the Polish and Romanian borders.

Hahahahahaha. Russia still hasn’t even controlled Donbas, let alone Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Chenihiv in over 2 years – and you think in 4 months (July 2024) – Russia will be at the Polish/Romanian borders!!?!?
WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING?!?
Re: Posted by: Norwegian | Mar 16 2024 20:36 utc | 403

@Perimetr | Mar 16 2024 20:33 utc | 402
Probably west of Dniepr.

Weren’t you saying Zelensky would be gone by February 2024 and wouldn’t see the 10th Anniversary of the Maidan Coup?
I think you were.
Still there mate.
As for “West of the Dnieper”.
I will repeat what I just said.
Hahahahahaha. Russia still hasn’t even controlled Donbas, let alone Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Chenihiv in over 2 years – and you think in 4 months (July 2024) – Russia will be marching West of the Dnieper!!?!?
WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING?!?
There is so much delusion on these boards! It’s unlikely Russia will be “West of the Dnieper” this side of the US Presidential Election.
Very very unlikely.

Posted by: Julian | Mar 17 2024 1:49 utc | 480

J. Helmer has a new post with evidence suggesting the USAF leaked the German conversation about Taurus missiles.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 17 2024 1:56 utc | 481

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 17 2024 1:45 utc | 480
The definition of Dotage – the period of life in which a person is old and weak. You don’t think that is an apt description of Crooke and Hudson?

Posted by: Siddhartha | Mar 17 2024 1:59 utc | 482

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 16 2024 22:54 utc | 441
If both combatants fought with the intensity and tempo of WW2 the timeframe would probably closely match that of the conflict. Reducing the intensity and force density lengthens the conflict. It’s not too difficult to understand.
BTW, both paragraphs quoted were mine.

Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 2:00 utc | 483

@ Siddhartha | Mar 17 2024 1:59 utc | 483
Care to try again, this time using an actual dictionary?

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 17 2024 2:03 utc | 484

Was watching Dima, the Russians released the names and nationalities of some of the NATO officers they tapped in Odessa on the 15th, Yanks, Germans, French….he said likely up to maybe sixty from NATO alone not including the Ukie contingent of high ranking officers. Apparently Zman stomped his little feet, jumped up and down, then screamed. Bet he has company…….
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Mar 17 2024 2:06 utc | 485

The definition of Dotage – the period of life in which a person is old and weak. You don’t think that is an apt description of Crooke and Hudson? Posted by: Siddhartha | Mar 17 2024 1:59 utc | 483
Nope. Fit Biden perfectly.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Mar 17 2024 2:07 utc | 486

But heck, just for the shits and giggles:
“The definition of Dotage – the period of life in which a person is old and weak”
That Crooke and Hudson are old can be conceded. In what way(s) are they weak, and how would user Siddhartha know?

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 17 2024 2:14 utc | 487

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 16 2024 19:13 utc | 379
A good weapon system never dies, it just waits around for the right opportunity. Just a correction, Ukraine uses the T-64, Russia was mocked for supplying the militias T-62’s and IIRC T-55’s, until they started providing direct fire support, that is.

Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 2:24 utc | 488

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 16 2024 21:55 utc | 422
Thanks Karl.
…no barfly has noticed.… = the volume of dreck and shite … 400+ posts and only 10%? Worth reading.
Thanks to those making value contributions.
A big fuck you to the barfleas and similar spreading your spam faeces all over thread after thread.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 17 2024 2:32 utc | 489

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 16 2024 22:54 utc | 441
If both combatants fought with the intensity and tempo of WW2 the timeframe would probably closely match that of the conflict. Reducing the intensity and force density lengthens the conflict. It’s not too difficult to understand.
BTW, both paragraphs quoted were mine.
Posted by: Milites | Mar 17 2024 2:00 utc | 484
—————————————————–
Clearly, and duly noted. Thank you.
Posted by: joey_n | Mar 16 2024 8:07 utc | 246
French have always had a good military reputation
Posted by: Milites | Mar 16 2024 11:03 utc | 267

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 17 2024 2:38 utc | 490

@Milites | Mar 17 2024 2:24 utc | 489
Built right staying power. Will any of current western (or Russian) systems still be serviceable in 50 years? Maybe not a fair question given current the reliance on a mix of mechanical and electronic systems and interfaces. Maybe control systems can be upgraded as long as underlying mechanical systems are sufficiently robust.

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 17 2024 2:49 utc | 491

Karlof1@substack.com ‘The Fabric of Reality’ was excellent reading and is about all of this.

Posted by: Inki | Mar 17 2024 3:28 utc | 492

“Macron is just one head of the hydra. The idea was for a while to get NATO on the ground in a non formal way. Hence many bilateral security treaties Bandera-Berlin, Bandera-London, Bandera-Warzsawa, Bandera-Paris. All of these countries are each NATO but by getting into alliances under their sole national banner, they enter Ukraine front without juridically being NATO.
Of course it makes no difference seen from Moskva and these troops will be hit equally well.”
Posted by: Timur | Mar 17 2024 0:49 utc | 474
Those bi-lateral security treaties are not just to get NATO in, de facto , but also to TIE DOWN the future foreign policies of those governments, [Germany, France, UK, Poland, Canada, etc.] regardless of change of government taking place in the next 10 years or so. The idea is also to hamstring those who follow the current fawning Banderist fan-boys in those NATO regimes.
This points to the fake democracies being even more fake than they already are.

Posted by: N Hanrahan | Mar 17 2024 4:28 utc | 493

…no barfly has noticed.… = the volume of dreck and shite … 400+ posts and only 10%? Worth reading.
Thanks to those making value contributions.
A big fuck you to the barfleas and similar spreading your spam faeces all over thread after thread.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 17 2024 2:32 utc | 490
I have noticed, but still value the 10% of sensible posts. There is a hell of a lot of cockroach shit here at the moment- must be a slow news day.
nevertheless, for what it is worth I think the wall of non- realistic (often contradictory) babble being currently uttered by various European “leaders”, together with very little open bellicosity from Washington indicates that things are not going too well on the Ukraine front. Seems that there is some despair in these Western power centres which could be a worry.
Odessa seems to be the focus of attention for the armchair generals-including myself-, and just how the RF gains control over the city and entire Black Sea coast will be interesting to watch. But in my opinion, the RF has no option but to accomplish this for its long- term security. This will be difficult, and I doubt it will be quick. Nevertheless, I suspect that the atmosphere of doom and gloom in the West has resulted from realising this is the ultimate RF goal-if it wasn’t bleedingly bloody obvious from the beginning of 2022, if not 2014.
Anyhow, enough speculation for now so its back to divination over insect droppings.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Mar 17 2024 4:33 utc | 494

Those bi-lateral security treaties are not just to get NATO in, de facto , but also to TIE DOWN the future foreign policies of those governments, [Germany, France, UK, Poland, Canada, etc.] regardless of change of government taking place in the next 10 years or so. The idea is also to hamstring those who follow the current fawning Banderist fan-boys in those NATO regimes.
This points to the fake democracies being even more fake than they already are.
Posted by: N Hanrahan | Mar 17 2024 4:28 utc | 494
Those bilateral are to ensure that Russia does not allow Ukraine to exist.

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 17 2024 5:09 utc | 495

Those bilateral [i.e., bi-lateral security treaties between the Banderist regime and various NATO regimes] are to ensure that Russia does not allow Ukraine to exist.
Posted by: Honzo | Mar 17 2024 5:09 utc | 496
That seems dubious. A Treaty between country A and country B to determine the future actions of country C doesn’t make any sense. Care to explain?

Posted by: N Hanrahan | Mar 17 2024 6:59 utc | 496

⚡️ Report from the border
On the situation on the Belgorod border.
As of today, the enemy has completely stopped offensive operations on the section of the state border in the area of the settlement Sdaryushino. There was a one-time attempt to approach the damaged tank, our guys worked on the enemy with a mortar, there was no more desire to approach the tank. The activity of using FPV drones by the AFU in this area has decreased.
A decrease in enemy activity was also recorded in the Nekhoteevka section of the automobile checkpoint and in the section of the state border in the area of the settlement Ghuravlik. There has been a noticeable decrease in the number of cases of the Armed Forces of Ukraine using FPV drones, as well as Baba Yaga-type copters used to drop mines and RPG shots. Mortar and artillery strikes were carried out on identified enemy concentration areas.
At the moment, the hottest spot is in the village of Kozinka, Grayvoronsky District. Throughout the day, the enemy continued to try to gain a foothold with infantry in the north of the village. We tried to move along the street. Mira went deeper into the village. All enemy attempts to occupy the village were repulsed by border guards and units of the Russian Defense Ministry. Men from the 2nd Special Forces Brigade successfully destroy the personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At the moment, the enemy has made another attempt to gain a foothold in the village of Kozinka, using significant infantry forces and several armored vehicles. Units of the RF Ministry of Defense continuously inflict fire on the enemy using artillery, MLRS, our aerospace forces are working, dropping FAB-500s on the enemy’s heads.
The city of Grayvoron came under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces with cluster munitions. The windows of many houses were broken. There are no reports of casualties

https://t.me/two_majors/20663

Posted by: Down South | Mar 17 2024 7:31 utc | 497

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Frontline #Summary for the Morning of 17 March 2024; pub. 10:02⚡️
🔹The #Zaporozhye Front remains the scene of heavy, but mainly position battles. Active fighting continues in #Rabotino with the support of long range weapons from both sides. North of #Verbovoye, the RF Armed Forces are attacking the positions of the AFU, with some ⚠️small successes. (Fig. 1)
🔹On the #Donetsk Front, the Russian Army is developing success on the #Tonenkoye – #Orlovka – #Berdychi line, pushing the AFU towards #Semyonovka. There is an ⚠️advance of our troops in all three settlements. (Fig. 2)
🔹In the #Bakhmut Direction, the RF Armed Forces are attacking in the area of #Bogdanovka. ⚠️Without success. In #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye), the RF Armed Forces artillery and aviation are working on the western outskirts. A similar situation in Chasov Yar, from where the AFU is receiving reserves. (Fig. 3)
🔹In the #Kharkov and #Sumy directions, by the end of the day the main military operations were developing in the area of #Kozinka. There the AFU did not give up attempts to break through our defence line using armoured vehicles and artillery. ⚠️Without result. (Fig. 4)

https://t.me/sitreports/24627

Posted by: Down South | Mar 17 2024 7:33 utc | 498

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 17 March 2024; pub. 08:56⚡️
🔹The current period is characterised by the enemy conducting a full scale Kiev army operation in the #Kursk and especially #Belgorod regions in order to disrupt the elections of the Russian President. The simultaneous connection for IPSO of Russian traitors from the RDK/LSR and other fugitive scum like ex-deputy Ponomarev caused a backlash and led to an increase in turnout to spite the enemy.
🔹The Nazis are hitting the civilian population, the #Belgorod region is under the main strikes. Our military command was aware of the upcoming provocations and took appropriate measures, and the Border Guards, the RFAF, the Russian Guard and the Defence Forces hold the State border line like granite, and not without unpleasant moments like a long hunt for several Czech RZO “Vampire”, as well as the inclusion of horizontal non-departmental connections to solve combat tasks.
🔹The elections are taking place confidently, but the middle link of the political center is overly reinsured, trying to avoid the shadow of internal instability. Probably, realising such a reverent attitude, Kiev strives to target polling stations in the #Kherson and #Zaporozhye regions with drones and artillery at all costs and sends quite large groups of infantry, supported by armored vehicles and all available firepower, to attack the #Belgorod section of the border. At the time of preparation of the report, fighting was reported on the border at #Sporadyushino and #Kozinka, at 08:00 (Moscow time) #Belgorod was shelled again.
🔹The week was also marked by systematic attacks by enemy UAVs on our rear. They purposefully knock out refineries, while aiming not at reservoirs, but at technologically important units, damage to which leads to the shutdown of plants. The enemy knows where to hit. On Sunday morning, another oil refinery was attacked by an UAV in Slavyansk-on-Kuban, #Krasnodar Territory. Rich corporations have been hinted at for more than a year by both deputies and the media about the need for independent protection (capitalism, comrades), but the footage of unsuccessful repulse of attacks, for example, on the Ryazan refinery contained only the sounds of small arms. By the way, with the 👉 same defence In the #Belgorod region, a drone was successfully landed from civilian shotguns (large buckshot) yesterday, see.👇
🔹At the front without significant changes. The RFAF are conducting offensive operations along the entire frontline, even in the #Kherson direction, despite the futile retention of the AFU zone in #Krynki and at the #Antonovsky Bridge, the RFAF conducted a raid on the enemy coast by special forces. Our troops are advancing on the #Zaporozhye front in the #Rabotino – #Verbovoye bag, southwest of #Ugledar, in three directions from #Maryinka, west of #Avdeyevka, rushing to Chasov Yar, taking #Belogorovka and seriously exhausted the enemy forces west of #Kremennaya. Nevertheless, everywhere the promotion is tactical in nature.
📌 Thus, the Russian Army has restrained attempts to break through large enemy forces in the border areas of the #Belgorod and #Kursk regions, and continues to advance in local battles in other sectors of the front. With the saturation of both sides with drones and high-precision weapons, combat tactics have undergone drastic changes, in which the involvement of large forces in a narrow sector of the front is associated with a high risk of serious losses. The outcome of battles is decided by technology and non-standard solutions.

https://t.me/sitreports/24626

Posted by: Down South | Mar 17 2024 7:34 utc | 499

‼️🇷🇺🏴‍☠️Battles on the border: the enemy attacks with the support of tanks and artillery
▪️The enemy continues attacks on the border during the Russian presidential elections.
▪️The enemy conducts artillery preparation and then attacks our defenses, both in small groups and units with armored vehicles. FPV drones are actively used, terrorists are trying to hit our vehicles and surveillance cameras with them
▪️The enemy is still concentrating his main efforts in the Belgorod region. There are head-on attacks on Spodaryushino and Korzinka, as well as attempts in small groups to pass through forest belts in the Gravoronsky district.
▪️Our tanks have been deployed to the border and are actively meeting the enemy along with howitzers and MLRS.
▪️Border guards, infantry, airborne forces and special forces conduct shooting battles with the advancing enemy
▪️During the day, a number of attacks were repelled, the enemy retreated with losses.
▪️The Armed Forces of Ukraine are firing at residential areas of Belgorod, Grayvoronsky and Shebekinsky districts, trying to cause panic among the population.
▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russian Army are actively using kamikaze drones, our Lancets are hitting enemy equipment in the immediate rear.
▪️The movement of equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the “GUR Legion” and other gang groups continues in the concentration areas closest to the border in the Sumy and Kharkov regions.
▪️Helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces are hunting for enemy equipment, and bombers continue to strike, by FABs along the border, and by FABs controlled by UPMK at places where enemy forces and equipment accumulate in rear areas.

https://t.me/geromanat/22860

Posted by: Down South | Mar 17 2024 7:36 utc | 500