Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 01, 2024

Lloyd Austin Doubts Protective Value Of NATO

Newsweek is lying with this headline:

NATO Will Be Drawn Into War With Russia if Ukraine Loses: Lloyd Austin

It wording leaves out the (faulty) reasoning Austin attempts to apply:

Speaking at a Republican-led House Armed Services Committee hearing to discuss his recent absence while hospitalized for complications from prostate cancer surgery, Austin predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not "stop" if Moscow wins the war in Ukraine.
...
"We know that if Putin is successful here, he will not stop," Austin said. "He will continue to take more aggressive action in the region. And other leaders around the world, other autocrats, will look at this and they'll be encouraged by the fact that this happened and we failed to support a democracy."

There is however no evidence, as in zero, that Russia is interested in taking even the whole of Ukraine or, moreover, anything beyond that.

Austin's logic is also faulty with regards to a different aspect.

The original claim was and is that Ukraine should enter NATO because that would protect it from being attacked by Russia.

But if Russia would, as Austin claims, attack the Baltics, i.e.beyond Ukraine, it would attack NATO member states. That claim thus puts the whole theory of a protective value of a NATO membership into question.

Meanwhile the Wall Street Journal has published parts of the draft peace deal that had been negotiated in spring 2022 between Ukraine and Russia:

Document From 2022 Reveals Putin’s Punishing Terms for Peace (also here)
Draft peace deal drawn up shortly after Russia’s invasion shows Ukraine was confronted with becoming a neutered state

The agreement was not punishing, but according to Ukrainian sources, very much in favor of Ukraine. It would have been kept as a wholesome sovereign state and could even become a member of the EU. The only restriction being to not join NATO and to have some limits on the size of its armed forces. Those conditions were much better than anything Ukraine will be able to achieve in any future negotiations.

The results of those will look much different:

The Kremlin said that the draft peace agreement from March-April 2022 is no longer relevant - Strana (machine translated)

Russian presidential press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the draft peace agreement of March-April 2022 is no longer relevant.

"The conditions have changed," Putin's spokesman told reporters.

He claims that the peace talks were stopped by Ukraine "at the command of London."

According to Peskov, the Kremlin would not like to publish the draft of that document.

Recall that today its individual provisions were published in The Wall Street Journal.

From this publication, it follows that Russia was ready to withdraw its troops from the territories captured after February 24, 2022.

That is, judging by Peskov's statement, the conditions for the withdrawal of troops are no longer relevant.

Earlier, David Arakhamia stated that Ukraine did not agree to sign that agreement , including because of the position of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Posted by b on March 1, 2024 at 16:53 UTC | Permalink

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the Undead Domino Theory rises from the grave

Posted by: c | Mar 1 2024 16:58 utc | 1

13 months ago. Sworn Congressional testimony by Secretary of Defense Austin: "Russia has been defeated. Russia has been defeated tactically. Russia has been defeated operationally. Russia has been defeated strategically." Note past tense more than a year ago.

Posted by: Arby | Mar 1 2024 17:02 utc | 2

Undead domino theory: All too true. You should patent that, c.

Posted by: mjh | Mar 1 2024 17:03 utc | 3

Obrigado b, por mais este texto esclarecedor.

Posted by: Soviético | Mar 1 2024 17:07 utc | 4

Putin and his government are sitting in the same seat as Jack Kennedy in autumn 1962

Posted by: paddy | Mar 1 2024 17:11 utc | 5

The West has moved from this wrong assumption:

Biden:

“Our sanctions are likely to wipe out the last 15 years of Russia’s economic gains [...] We’re going to stifle Russia’s ability for its economy to grow for years to come.”

to this wrong assumption:

Austin:

We know that if Putin is successful here, he will not stop [...] He will continue to take more aggressive action in the region.

I call that progress.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Mar 1 2024 17:15 utc | 6

Johnson, Biden, Austin, Blinken---four numbskulls---screwed the Ukraine (plus McCain, Kerry, Nuland, Payett, Vindman, and others).

Russia was the only country that actually ever cared about the Ukraine and its people.

Posted by: Jane | Mar 1 2024 17:15 utc | 7

Jane@7 and c@1 have got it right.
Jane's point is a reminder of the dozens of countries and tens of millions of people killed off by Imperialist hypocrites using the domino theory as their last line of defence.
Like the islamophobia and crude racism being wheeled out in the UK to protect politicians from facing the consequences of their corrupt and indefensible support of genocide in Gaza, the domino theory has been used too often to convince any but the foolish.

Posted by: bevin | Mar 1 2024 17:21 utc | 8

Putin and his government are sitting in the same seat as Jack Kennedy in autumn 1962

Posted by: paddy | Mar 1 2024 17:11 utc | 5

"I knew Jack Kennedy. And Putin is not Jack Kennedy..."
Putin knows exactly the limits of all the American, British and European Dirtbags so he won't be doing a victory tour of Dallas anytime soon.
But thanks for the dark humor.

Posted by: kupkee | Mar 1 2024 17:23 utc | 9

Oh. And Jack Kennedy could ride around comfortably in the autumn of 1962 for Dulles hadn't got everyone on side for the assassination until 1963.
The USA then, as now, is a cheap Hollywood Movie.

Posted by: kupkee | Mar 1 2024 17:28 utc | 10

Russia might not want to take all of the Ukraine, but if the Ukrainian army and government collapse they will have little choice but to step into the power vacuum.

Posted by: Gregory Purcell | Mar 1 2024 17:29 utc | 11

nato is what brought us here historically.. that and the hate on for russia... sure - everyone needs security, but apparently russia doesn't, lol... so nato can keep expanding right to russias border with the takeover of ukraine in 2014 and onward... this is all on NATO.. they brought this war to us and they own it... the liars that are regularly featured in the western msm - politicians and the lot of them.. they can just fuck right off.. you can only bullshit people so much and then people realize it and never believe a word you say again..

Posted by: james | Mar 1 2024 17:37 utc | 12

Sigh...

Kayfabe. Try to remember the word. Kayfabe. Austin, Macron, Nuland, they're just spouting a line that has nothing to do with reality or intentions. The US is abandoning Ukraine, but needs to do it by controlled demolition so they can keep the Euro-peons in line for the next cold war. Helicopters on embassy rooftops are too chaotic, they promote too much backlash. Austin is just helping to keep the American population divide and angry with whatever faction individuals don't adhere to.

Kayfabe.

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 1 2024 17:37 utc | 13

you can only bullshit people so much and then people realize it and never believe a word you say again..

Posted by: james | Mar 1 2024 17:37 utc | 12

Until imperialism replaces them with some new faces...that will go on to do exactly the same thing.

If this lot gets too unpopular they'll set up some private sector jobs for them and then have a casting call for a new young, diverse, friendly looking crowd of mercenaries to carry on the atrocious foreign policy.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Mar 1 2024 17:43 utc | 14

That draft peace proposal is being leaked by the empire side because they want to force Russia back to those agreement points which are way better than what will be offered currently.

We are now to the phase where empire starts calling Russia current demands delusional...and the SMO grinds on at increased pace.

What will empire/NATO do as it becomes clear that Ukraine military is near collapse?

That is what we are watching unfold.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 1 2024 17:44 utc | 15

Russia might not want to take all of the Ukraine, but if the Ukrainian army and government collapse they will have little choice but to step into the power vacuum.

Posted by: Gregory Purcell | Mar 1 2024 17:29 utc | 11

That would be doing the west a favour. I suspect they'll reintegrate Novorossiya, drop an iron curtain and leave Ukraine to the vultures. If you look at a demographic map of 1991 Ukraine the further west you go the less Russian it becomes and the more they hate the Russians. They already stepped on that rake in 1920 and then again in 1945. I doubt they'll do it again.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 1 2024 17:46 utc | 16

NATO represents a consortium of the world's pre-eminent colonialist terrorist countries. NATO has militarily wrecked Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Libya, Iraq, Vietnam and many others. NATO has economically wrecked many Western countries insofar as the people have endured decades of austerity or the pathway to austerity and privatization for the benefit of the racketeers who manage NATO as a criminal enterprise designed to enrich the Military Industrial Silicon Valley Surveillance Censorship Wall Street Think Tank Deep State Complex at the expense of most of the common people. NATO espouses "freedom", "democracy" and "human rights" in direct contradiction to its actions that eliminate those things wherever possible, whether in NATO countries or the rest of the world. For its stated purposes, therefore, NATO is unnecessary, a sham, and needs to be dismantled.

Speaking of NATO (and the CIA), b covered this the other day, but here's more from CAM:
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2024/02/28/cia-spills-the-beans-about-deep-involvement-in-ukraine-part-of-ploy-to-undercut-republican-congressional-opposition-to-war/

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 1 2024 17:46 utc | 17

"He will continue to take more aggressive action in the region. And other leaders around the world, other autocrats, will look at this and they'll be encouraged by the fact that this happened and we failed to support a democracy."

Well, that's the usual strategy that comes from these people, they always want to escalate so that they can exploit their superior military potential - and that was very successful when Roosevelt explained to the Americans, who were unwilling to go to war after the experience of the first world war and the great depression, that Hitler wanted to conquer the entire world - whether that is still a good strategy today, when the Russians and Chinese also have a few nuclear weapons, remains to be seen.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Mar 1 2024 17:47 utc | 18

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 1 2024 17:44 utc | 15

EEEEEExactly. They're only leaking this now because they want to somehow make Russia accept the terms of the original, pre-500,000-totally-unnecessary-deaths, version of the peace deal.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 1 2024 17:48 utc | 19

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 1 2024 17:48 utc | 19

Hhe.,
Fortuna has a shaved well oiled back of head.
Once her beautiful tresses have move past ..

Posted by: MAKK | Mar 1 2024 17:59 utc | 20

Hi b., look at our old comrades at Bundeswehr. They talk about crashing the Crimea-Bidges with TAURUS. Would not change the outcome of the war, but be a good selling point since the rocket is not "battle-hardened" yet. That`s why the hawkish german media is pushing so hard to supply it and bashing Scholz for his hesitating. Anyway:going under cover is recommended in the region (linke in the RedSea):if Bundeswehr fires you never know where it hits (-;

https://www.rt.com/news/593555-audio-german-crimean-bridge-attack/

Posted by: Mathias | Mar 1 2024 18:00 utc | 21

@ Ahenobarbus | Mar 1 2024 17:43 utc | 14

i think we can continue this stupid circus, merry go round for only so long...

more people need to wake up to what @ Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 1 2024 17:46 utc | 17

thanks for both of your posts...

Posted by: james | Mar 1 2024 18:02 utc | 22

For the sake of argument, does any sane person actually believe that Russia is afraid of a war with NATO if Russia's existence is threatened? The hot air coming from the collective West is a sign of panic and genuine fear that in war with Russia NATO stands no chance. Nuclear sabber-rattling is also useless since Russia is capable of bring the whole show to a tragic end for everyone. Most of the propaganda of the West is aimed at its docile citizenry.

Posted by: Steve | Mar 1 2024 18:02 utc | 23

Seems like the usual BS to me, trying to mislead the public yet again to promote the new line that Russia most certainly will attack more nations once it's done with Ukraine. This BS was anticipated--well, it was already put out there--and refuted yet again by an article written by Russian Ambassador to Italy Alexander Paramonov: "Russia vs. the West: Myth or Reality?". Perhaps some of our Italian barflies can tell us if they read the article when it was published by La Repubblica a week ago on the 22nd.

In other news, at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, Lavrov was asked the following question and provided his answer:

Question (retranslated from English): The media have published a conversation between German officers about how they plan to blow up the Crimean Bridge. Can you comment on this?

Sergey Lavrov: I read today what was posted on social media and announced by Margarita Simonyan with reference to relevant sources. On the one hand, it's amazing. On the other hand, no.

I have already mentioned that we know for certain about the participation of military personnel from NATO countries, who are sometimes disguised as mercenaries, sometimes as people who do not belong to the armed forces of the alliance.

There are some interesting things about this conversation. German generals discussed how to "more cunningly" supply Ukraine with long-range weapons (mentioned TAURUS) for an attack on the Crimean bridge and ammunition depots. And to make sure that they are not noticed, because German Chancellor Olaf Scholz allegedly does not like this, and the Americans and the British are already there. There was a conversation about whether it was possible to guide missiles remotely without being in Ukraine. One of the generals said it would still be a direct involvement. They know what they're talking about. In one of the exchanges, it is said that there are "guys from the United States in civilian clothes."

I don't know what to call it, but the face of our NATO colleagues is completely down. Let's see how they will communicate with their population.

Lavrov supplied two links from Margarita Simonyan: audio of a conversation between Bundeswehr officers, and this transcript posted to her VK page. The transcript is quite long--the conversation lasted over 30 minutes--so I'll just post her header to it and its opening few paragraphs:

On February 19, 2024, the following conversation took place between the head of the operations and exercises department of the Bundeswehr Air Force Command Graefe, the BBC inspector of the Bundeswehr Gerhartz and the employees of the Air Operations Center of the Bundeswehr Space Command Fenske and Frostedte.

Gerhartz: Greetings, everyone! Grefe, are you in Singapore now?

Graefe: Yes.

Gerhartz: Okay. We have to verify the information. As you have already heard, Defense Minister Pistorius intends to carefully work out the issue of supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine. We have a meeting with him. Everything needs to be discussed so that we can begin to work on this issue. So far, I do not see that the moment of the beginning of these deliveries has been indicated. It wasn't like the chancellor said to him, "I want to get information now and tomorrow morning we'll make a decision." I've never heard anything like that. On the contrary, Pistorius assesses the whole unfolding discussion. No one knows why the Federal Chancellor is blocking these deliveries. Of course, the most incredible rumors appear. Let me give you an example: yesterday I received a phone call from a journalist who is very close to the Chancellor. She had heard somewhere in Munich that the Taurus missiles would not work. I asked her who had told her that. She replied that someone in military uniform had told her so. Of course, this is a low-level source of information, but the journalist latched on to these words and wants to make a story out of it under the headline: "Now we know the reason why the chancellor refuses to send Taurus missiles - they won't work." It's all stupidity. Such topics are available only to a limited circle of people, but we see what nonsense is spreading in the meantime, they are talking complete nonsense. I want to coordinate this issue with you so that we do not move in the wrong direction. First of all, I have questions for Frostedte and Fenske. Has anyone talked to you about this? Did Freuding contact you?

Frostedte: No. I only talked to Graefe.

Fenske: It's the same thing, I've only talked to Graefe.

I'll post the full translated transcript to my substack as soon as I finish this comment, then I'll return to provide the link.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 1 2024 18:03 utc | 24

What do the UK based barflies think about Galloway's resounding victory yesterday? More Gaza related, for sure, but I know he's been critical of NATO in the past.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 1 2024 18:06 utc | 25

@Mathias | Mar 1 2024 18:00 utc | 21

"Anyway:going under cover is recommended in the region (linke in the RedSea):if Bundeswehr fires you never know where it hits (-;"

Ha ha - maybe they could manage to take out some of those western surveillance assets that are overly abundant in the region - this time proving effectiveness by actually hitting the target :-)

Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 1 2024 18:07 utc | 26

Thanks james, obviously we are in agreement on NATO. I would argue that this is very on-topic reading.

https://roburie.substack.com/p/the-cia-and-the-decline-of-the-american

Excerpt from an otherwise pretty long article:

Oddly, given recent history, the claim that the CIA is the President’s secret army still appears to be the received wisdom in Washington and New York. This is odd because while the CIA appears to be acting as Joe Biden’s secret army in Ukraine and Israel, it went to war with (the duly elected President of the US) Donald Trump for his entire four years in office. While Mr. Trump played the victim of the US intelligence agencies to perfection, he didn’t do what many normal humans would have done in his circumstance--- clear out the top few levels of management at CIA, the FBI, and NSA and see where this leaves ‘us.’

Implied is a reversal of political causality whose proof can only be deduced. Is Biden directing the CIA, or is the CIA directing Biden? For instance, while Biden was Barack Obama’s point-man in Ukraine before, during, and after the US-led coup there in 2014, Mr. Obama was publicly arguing that Ukraine was of no strategic value to the US. With Donald Trump following Mr. Obama as President, the CIA likely saw its 2014 coup in Ukraine going to waste. This interpretation sheds a different light on the Hunter Biden laptop fraud perpetrated by 51 current and former CIA employees.

(FBI informant Alexander Smirnov has been convicted of nothing related to the new charges of ‘Russian interference.’ As was proved with Russiagate, charges are easy to make, difficult to prove. No one--- not a single person, was convicted on the now antique charges of Russian collusion. Those who were convicted were convicted on process charges unrelated to the collusion charges. This use of the law as a political weapon is called lawfare).

The view in this piece is that Donald Trump was elected in 2016 because Barack Obama threw several trillion dollars at the malefactors on Wall Street who blew up the global economy while he pissed on the unemployed, the foreclosed upon, and every working person in the US. In so doing, an income and wealth chasm was rebuilt between the public welfare recipients who run Wall Street and Big Tech and the former industrial workers whose jobs were sent abroad as the final solution to the ‘problem’ of organized labor.

With the current panic in the US over the rise of the BRICS (China and Russia), the same politicians and economists who thought it wise in 1995 to gut the industrial base with NAFTA are now busy launching WWIII. These people never learn from their mistakes. For instance, it apparently never occurred to them that outsourcing military production might come back to bite when geopolitical tensions inevitably flared again. Likewise, just-in-time production and inventory management produced economic brittleness / fragility that created problems when the Covid-19 pandemic hit.

Biden was a known quantity when he was appointed by Barack Obama to be President in 2020. The CIA, acting in league with the FBI, had spent prior years softening up the American public with lies about US foreign policy, lies about American history, lies about Donald Trump and his supporters, lies about their own roles in rigging American elections, lies about the American-led coup in Ukraine, lies about Russian military ambitions, and lies about US plans for the destruction of Ukraine. To be clear, these American agencies weren’t lying to the Russians. They were / are lying to the only people who believe their bullshit--- Americans.

So, where is this going? With the CIA’s and FBI’s undermining of the elected President’s (Trump) political agenda and its open efforts to rig the 2020 election in favor of his opponent (Biden), it certainly appears that the CIA is now running the US. Biden’s foreign policy team---Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, and Victoria Nuland emerged from the Clintonite death cult buried deep within the bowels of the American foreign policy establishment, That they appear to be as uninformed and arrogant as their policy outcomes to date suggest they are is only a surprise inside Washington and New York.

However, this is at best a partial explanation. What is surprising about US foreign policy is how ignorant of world history, US history, basic diplomacy, military tactics, economic relations, and basic human decency the American political leadership is. It’s almost as if the answer to every foreign policy conundrum of the last century has been to bomb civilian populations, kill a whole lot of people, and then pretend it never happened. Vietnam? Check. Nicaragua? Check. Syria? Check. Iraq? Check. Ukraine? How can the body counts be hidden from beleaguered, clueless, citizens so effectively?

Some recent history: the US launched a war against Russia when it (the US) invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked coup there in 2014 (see here, here, here) and ousted its elected government. The Russians had taken issue with the US / NATO surrounding it with NATO-allied states (maps below). Years earlier, as Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in his recent interview with Tucker Carlson, Mr. Putin had approached former US President Bill Clinton about Russia joining NATO. Mr. Clinton ‘spoke with his people’ before telling Mr. Putin no to joining NATO as he reneged on George H.W. Bush’ s promise to keep NATO away from Russia’s border.

A bit of additional history is needed here. The USSR was dissolved in 1991 to be replaced by non-communist Russia surrounded by former Soviet states. Ukraine is one such state. The political – economic reference point of post-Soviet Russia was an anachronistic form of neoliberalism. Recall, Americans had been told since at least the early twentieth century that ‘communism’ was the ideological foe of Western liberalism. Current Russian President Vladimir Putin is proudly anti-communist. But the US MIC (military-industrial complex), of which the CIA is a part, needs enemies to justify its existence.

Following the dissolution of the USSR (1991), there was discussion inside the US regarding a ‘peace dividend,’ of redirecting military spending inflated by the Cold War towards domestic purposes like schools, hospitals, and civilian infrastructure. However, the CIA had been so hemmed in by Federal budget constraints that it had inserted itself into the international narcotics trade forty years prior in apparent anticipation of just such an event. With the (George H.W.) Bush recession of 1991, an election year, the peace dividend was rescinded.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 1 2024 18:10 utc | 27

https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1763579973015576743

On the phone conversation between the Bundeswehr officers about planned attacks against our country

Our historic adversaries, the Germans, have once again turned into our archenemies. Just take a look at how thoroughly and in what detail the krauts are discussing long-range missile strikes on Russia’s territory, and are picking out targets and the most workable ways to harm our Motherland and our people. And they are doing so without leaving out the deceptive rhetoric about Germany’s non-involvement in the conflict.
Just a little while back, could anyone have imagined this?
And how to react to this in a diplomatic way?
I don’t know…

But I do know this one thing.
The Second World War-era call has once again become relevant: DEATH TO THE FASCISTS!


Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 1 2024 18:15 utc | 28

https://www.rt.com/russia/593564-france-troops-ukraine-media/

Strategic dilemma? Why? Haven't they targetted 'advisors' before? It's Kinzhal time.

Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 1 2024 18:17 utc | 29

Bernhard, I hope you are well (to be honest you amaze me - you are even older than me).

My education about Russia, did not come friends who have actually been to Russia and now China...but from The Saker..I may have been one of his first fans ...I read him, from before he had been outed - and celebreated by posting a photo of himself with a pint...I thought that was brilliant.

And Dmitry Orlov, who has now shaved his beard off now he is back in Russia. He writes extremely well. I have bought both their books.

Bernhard - I just want to see a photo of You. I have never known anyone like you. I guess you never had the time to write a book...as you write live almost every day.

Thank you for educating me...about all sorts of stuff including the song. I hadn't heard it since The Doors.

I normally meet Americans, Russians, Germans, Spanish, Greeks and Indians and people from Thailand in eg Thailand

or down my local my pub, with The Turkish, in fact everyone - watching The Band drinking alcohol...At the end of the day we are all the same...We don't want to hurt or kill anyone, even if they are a complete and utter arsehole...just give them that "look" as you slowly walk away...from the piece of detritius.

Don't need any guns.

Tony

Posted by: tonyopmoc | Mar 1 2024 18:18 utc | 30

Looks to me, as I have commented previously, that all this NATO sabre rattling is designed to send a message to Russia that NATO really really means business - and you had better agree to a cease fire pretty soon - otherwise this thing may escalate into WW3. Trouble is Russia won't back down and Western Leaders think they will - at least IMHO. Shades of summer 1914...but with nukes. I hope wise heads prevail but I see very few on one side of this struggle.

Posted by: marcjf | Mar 1 2024 18:21 utc | 31

This is the question what will Nato when Russia cements its victory in Ukraine, will it galavnise and attack Russia via Ukraine leading to a huge conflict, surely China at the every least would do everything in its power to help its neighbour and business partner nation, for China would be next if Russia fell as would North Korea.

Could the Nato nations even agree to go to war with Russia, I think there would be much doubt and bickering over it, and what are the consequences for us in different scenarios, ie, Russia wins, Russia loses, and would the Global South standby and watch or participate, and could clouded judgements over the fog of war lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

One way or another the west will surely rue the day that they did not allow Zelensky to sign those peace terms.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Mar 1 2024 18:24 utc | 32

thanks b.
Yes, the issue is that Lloyd has no clue, what is behind the corner.

With Russia, it is so, that if the West refuses to concede, RF will just go on. If you do not talk today, Russian military is tomorrow somewhere else. You regret any lost moment that you refused to talk.

I have to thank someone that send the link to Martyanov talking to herr Colonel Baud, a smart Swiss guy I had the privilege to meet mote than once in my life. In that conversation between the two military professionals, it is noted that incompetence in the top echelons of the Western armies is overwhelming, they have no understanding what is going on and how is Russia doing the war. Baud also mentions a 4th Ukrainian army being destroyed currently. His book is out, and I have to have it, as it is the best content the Western military expertise and experience can offer at the moment.
Martyanov books are interesting read too.

I do not know who is advising Lloyd, but he has no clue that the war is already lost. Russians have the objective and in the West nobody defined what does it mean to win the war for the West except "must destroy Russia".
Lloyd doesn't even see or understand that, let alone anything else.
What he wants is to bring more fear amongst NATO, so they fork moneys to the USA weaponry manufacturing community. It is likely that some Rheinmetall will burn soon or in the meantime. As the same as NS2.

Posted by: whirlX | Mar 1 2024 18:28 utc | 33

Military prediction distinguish between an opponent's intent and that opponents capability.

It also distinguishes between what is most likely and worst case real possibilities.

There is zero evidence that Putin intends to take all of Ukraine, much less to go further. There is very little evidence that anyone in Russia has even discussed that as serious possibility.

There is zero public evidence that Russia is mobilizing or moving forces in ways that would support such broad, truly massive new moves, and if Austin had such information he ought to have said so.

However, NATO has disarmed itself, left itself totally vulnerable. It has sent away its ammunition and even artillery itself. It has sent off much other weaponry. It readiness has been allowed to collapse to little more than bad jokes about France's ability to go on safari in Africa or Britain's ability to half-fill a football stadium with its entire military. The US is also drained, while over-extending itself to other conflicts.

So it could be said that worst case, it is possible the Russians could overrun the EU, because it has made itself defenseless and the US could not alone defend it.

Thus, Austin was not wrong in military theory to say it is possible, but that ought not to be overinterpreted as a prediction that it is likely, nor that Putin/Russia actually intend to do so.

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Mar 1 2024 18:29 utc | 34

Until imperialism replaces them with some new faces...that will go on to do exactly the same thing.

If this lot gets too unpopular they'll set up some private sector jobs for them and then have a casting call for a new young, diverse, friendly looking crowd of mercenaries to carry on the atrocious foreign policy.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Mar 1 2024 17:43 utc | 14

Precisely my thoughts too. Even though I at times disagree with your approach, that was a splendid post. The concept of the PR savvy neoliberalism and imperialism.

Posted by: Constantine | Mar 1 2024 18:30 utc | 35

Posted by: Mathias | Mar 1 2024 18:00 utc | 21

It looks like your Federal Chancellor Scholz's risk management has spared Deutschland's air attack alarm systems for the time being, but unfortunately the French and the Brits' don't seem to be very happy about it. :)

Grab your popcorn, 'tis the season of retarded "superpower" cowards blaming each other to save their own complicit ass!

Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Mar 1 2024 18:33 utc | 36

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 1 2024 18:03 utc | 24

Is there any claimed source for the audio? Anyone who wanted to make the protagonists look bad would be at the top of the list.

Yesterday:

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-slammed-claims-france-uk-help-ukraine-target-missiles/

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 1 2024 18:50 utc | 37

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Mar 1 2024 18:29 utc | 34

Also, if one watched The Duran. Alexander Mercouris rips the EU plan of Eurobonds and 'war economy' apart.

EU has no capability to become a meaningful or relevant arms manufacturer given the long term decay and more recent short term deliberate destruction of up and downstream industrial chains. They can't even keep Michelin tire manufacturer operating in EU and huge chunk of chemical producers are shut down.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 1 2024 18:51 utc | 38

Posted by: ThirdWorldDude | Mar 1 2024 18:33 utc | 36

Snap =)

Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 1 2024 18:52 utc | 39

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 1 2024 18:15 utc | 28

The post in TG is more to my taste, the final statement:

DEATH TO THE GERMAN-FASCIST OCCUPIERS.

Plus a poem, but poetry is safe from bad translations.

https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/457

Posted by: Paco | Mar 1 2024 18:54 utc | 40

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 1 2024 18:15 utc | 28

The post in TG is more to my taste, the final statement:

DEATH TO THE GERMAN-FASCIST OCCUPIERS.

Plus a poem, but poetry is safe from bad translations.

https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/457

Posted by: Paco | Mar 1 2024 18:54 utc | 41

Here's the transcript I referenced at 24 above, "German Military Going Against its Parliament: Intercepted Conversation". It reveals quite a lot.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 1 2024 19:00 utc | 42

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Mar 1 2024 18:29 utc | 34

It all comes to self-fulfilled prophecies. Just as Hitler unleashed a war asserting that the German and European civilization was targeted for destruction, only to see these fears realized BECAUSE of his actions, so his heirs call for war with Russia on the basis of the latter being a threat to their supposedly superior civilization. WEll, just like Hitler they may fulfill their own fearful prophecies due to their own actions.

Take Finland. THis country had profitted handsomely from its neutral status and could continue to do so. Instead, with the advent of liberal minions of the Anglo-American empire, it opts to abandon its beneficial neutrality to become a forward outpost for the anti-Russian crusade, ostensibly to defend its own sovereignty threatened by the Asiatic hordes. It may very well come to war and the very fear the liberal Finnish politicos and their muppets invoked could become a reality they created.

Posted by: Constantine | Mar 1 2024 19:00 utc | 43

it's just like lloyd is saying, "soon the rats will leave the sinking ship."

Posted by: andreweed | Mar 1 2024 19:07 utc | 44

Raytheon bought itself a Secretary of Defense (SOD).

Did you know that Raytheon, before he became SOD, handed Lloyd Austin (LA) a basket load of assets?

LA had retired from the Pentagon as a multi-star general.

He then opened a shell of a company, a "consultancy".
Where? I wish a reporter would track this down, I wouldn't be surprised if it was little more than a mail slot in some
obscure back alley in Kansas. I don't know.

Well, Raytheon was so bowled over by this critical "consultancy" that it merged it - yes, merged it -
into Raytheon. Merger means that they handed Austin a basket full of stock, so much stock that he
was now on the Board of Directors at Raytheon.

Austin was so pleased that he decided to become Secretary of Defense in Raytheon's honor.
The lobbyists of Washington got to work and plied their rolodexes, contacting all the right people.
Lloyd Austin was to be nominated.

But there was a problem. The law says that one cannot become Secretary of Defense until one waits several
years (four or is it five?) after retiring from the Pentagon. This law was enacting so as to control abuse of the
Washington "revolving door". No matter, Congress voted an exception for Lloyd Austin.
"Power to the People Rolodex".

That is how it is done in Washington.
That is how Raytheon bought itself a Secretary of Defense.

Posted by: librul | Mar 1 2024 19:10 utc | 45

Mobilization kills.

In Ternopil, military commissars use the favorite tactics of the TCC, which are used throughout the country.
1. Kidnapping of a man
2. His detention for an indefinite period, as a hostage.
3. They feed him like a “dog” if he doesn’t want to sign.
4. Apply moral pressure.
5. Pressure and bullying.
6. Beating.
7. After videos were leaked online showing military commissars beating people in “their barracks.” Phones are now being taken away from men. No, they didn’t install video cameras to make the process transparent, but on the contrary, they immediately began to take away the men’s phones.

They are afraid of scandals. This means that no one refused the whole practice of coercion/bullying. Of course, they do, this is on the instructions of Bankova and personally the Head of the OP Ermak, who is in charge of the mobilization case.

As a consequence of all this lawlessness, another death of a disabled person in the TCC, and the government and its propaganda are trying to hush up the matter. The SBU was given an order to force people to remain silent and endure.

The nation is gradually turning into slaves... but the slogans about freedom and democracy sound louder.


https://t.me/legitimniy/17355
Ukraine mobilizes farm workers in desperate attempt to replenish army strength

Ukraine is recruiting critical agricultural workers into its army in a desperate attempt to strengthen its armed forces, Bloomberg writes. After two years of bitter fighting, Ukraine is once again in need of fresh troops, putting the future of many farms in jeopardy.

In 2023, Kyiv created a system to protect workers in critical industries from conscription. But as volunteer numbers dwindle and more are needed on the front lines, more farmers are being called into service. On paper, agricultural workers are ideal candidates for the Ukrainian military. They are accustomed to handling large equipment and driving tractors, which gives them the skills they need on the battlefield.

As a result, Ukrainian officials are faced with a dilemma: they are forced to balance between preserving the economic core of Ukraine and protecting the country's sovereignty. The outcome of this balancing act affects livelihoods and global food supplies, as well as the state of the Ukrainian military.

Kyiv's efforts to replenish its dwindling army are raising concerns among farmers who fear they won't have enough people to work with, especially during the spring planting of corn and oilseeds, which has already begun in the south of the country.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/21858

Posted by: Down South | Mar 1 2024 19:12 utc | 46

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 1 Mar 2024 by 19:52⚡️

🔻#Kherson Direction:
🟡In the #Tyaginka Sector, AFU groups are moving from #Krynki to the west, towards Cossack Camps. It is still unclear whether the remnants of the garrison escaped from the fire of our artillery or the AFU groups landed on our shore and advanced in the grey zone between the villages.

🔻#Zaporozhye Direction:
🟡In the #Orekhov Section, Russian aircraft are hitting the AFU trenches in #Rabotino, which lead from the southern part of the village to the north.
📌 On the ground, our military uses the tactics of "swing", they enter the grey zone, fight and retreat to the initial positions. Due to the inability to gain a foothold in the ruins, #Rabotino must be completed in one throw. And to do this, exhaust the AFU with a carousel of infantry, aviation and artillery attacks.

🔻#Avdeyevka Direction:
🟡In the #Orlovka Sector, there are battles on the western outskirts of #Orlovka itself, #Berdychi and #Tonenkoye. Our forces are putting the squeeze on the enemy. North of #Stepovoye (now #Petrowskoye), our troops knocked out the AFU and leveled the frontline between the railway line and #Berdychi. We managed to expand the front zone near #Nevelskoye, and for sure the attacks will become more active there.
📌 The AFU are resisting fiercely, trying to gain time to strengthen a new line of defence 5-7 km from the current line.

🔻#Bakhmut Direction:
🟡In the "Chasov Yar" Sector, fighting continues in #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye) and the surrounding area. The AFU are trying to keep control of the #Ivanovskoye - #Kleshcheyevka road, the only non–rural supply route to #Andreyevka and #Kleshcheyevka. Further to the west there are hills, which are also controlled by the AFU. In the village of #Ivanovskoye itself, our troops are advancing from the centre of the village. Information about the abandonment of the village by the AFU and the transition of the western outskirts to the grey zone has not yet been confirmed.

🔻#Svatovo Direction:
🟡In the #Seversk Sector, our forces expanded the control zone north of the industrial zone's the water utility and approached #Belogorovka (again) from the west.
🟡In the #Kupyansk Sector, our troops destroyed another pontoon bridge of the AFU across the #Oskol River, near the Kupyansk-Uzlovoy Station, the logistics hub of the AFU.
📌 With the approach of the front to the #Oskol, the vulnerability of all crossings has increased, but the AFU continues to actively build new ones. Residents from #Kharkov report that the number of trains sent with grain, flour, etc. has increased significantly. In addition, supposedly local SBU officers are taking their families out of the city.

☠️ The AFU shelling killed two people in the #DPR. Another AFU attack on #Crimea was repelled in the afternoon, according to preliminary information, up to 10 missiles were shot down, possibly Storm Shadow and several drones. The Russian Ombudsman announced the readiness to transfer to #Kiev the bodies of those killed in the Il-76 crash in the #Belgorod region.


https://t.me/sitreports/23829

Posted by: Down South | Mar 1 2024 19:13 utc | 47

NATO is All Hat and No Cattle:
1. They needed CNN to tell them they had lost their war in Afghanistan. The clowns had their heads so deep in their asses they were still thinking they were winning the war when the Taliban had already captured the entire country including Afghanistan.

2. Their assessment of their own strength vs that of Russia was completely wrong. NATO thought they had prepared a baited trap that would destroy Russia's army within days. Turns out those NATO-clowns with the tin bling on their chests don't have the first clue about fighting a war were the enemy isn't a poor country with no air defense and no army to speak of. (not they NATO would win against those, either, but at least NATO's failure was a bit less obvious in Syria and Libya).

3. NATO is the biggest waste of money of all known government projects. 1.5 Trillion per year, 30 times Russia's defense budget - and they run out of ammo after 15 months. Even worse: ramping up production takes NATO years whereas Russia's defense industry was running like a smooth machine within months of the start of the war. The same goes for the army, by the way,which was dead in the water 30 years after the cold war. A year ago, they were - correctly - ridiculed by Prigoshin (and NATO), now they are more efficient than Wagner ever was.

NATO's worst mistake: 2 years ago, Russia wasn't a threat at all. Now Putin has a well-oiled war machine that could overrun if not Europe, then at least its neighboring countries before NATO had even mobilized its first defense line.

Macron's "Brain-dead" was a correct description of NATO back then, it is even more correct now.

Posted by: Marvin | Mar 1 2024 19:14 utc | 48

Today's Bhadrakumar column at Indianpunchline is worth a read:

https://www.indianpunchline.com/china-resumes-shuttle-diplomacy-as-ukraine-war-drums-get-louder/

The message is not about China. It's about China's leery concerns of a pending expansion of the SMO. The prospect of NATO (i.e, 'Murica/5-Eyes/WesternEurope/et al participate in escalation in terms of providing satellite-based intelligence and targets, plus longer-range weaponries to strike deeper into Russia as a means inciting domestic fear and antsy to pressure their own government is very real. From what NATO has done since 2014, these animals are capable of anything besides sending their own soldiers as yet. China reads the tea leaves and wants to do something before all get out of hand.

I'm in agreement with China's concerns. We have come to a crossroad where the western hegemony is existentially at stake. The West themselves know it; the RoW knows it. Both sides know also it's inevitable. But the west ain't going down without a big kick of the bucket, especially they thought they have as yet nothing to lose since Ukraine is still some arms-length away from being down to the last man while the Baltics/Poles/Moldovan/Bulgars are obdiently standing by to render services as directed. Yup! Things are indeed looking terribly dangerous. I hope China's latest effort will come to something positive.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 1 2024 19:19 utc | 49

anon2020 | Mar 1 2024 18:50 utc | 37--

Thanks for your reply. Lavrov says there're sources but I found none in the VK posting. This is now RT's top news item and says this: "She reported that Russian security officials had leaked the recording hours earlier and has pledged to release the original audio shortly." The RT article again contains no links to the published material. There's a second RT article as well. I don't post RT links as they usually block the comment from being posted. It's clear a massive can of worms is now spilt all over the Narrative.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 1 2024 19:20 utc | 50

The Ukrainian army is collapsing, and given the fact NATO's special forces have attacked Russian civilian targets, I don't foresee Putin compromising on his demands..It's not like the NATO or the US military constitute a major threat to Russia, having given most of their munitions to Zelensky..

Posted by: pyrrhus | Mar 1 2024 19:22 utc | 51

We must profusely thank Bojo for stopping Putin from throwing away a victory during the negotiations in Turkey. Giving all of the territory won with the blood of Russians and the Donbass back to Ukraine? Probably still remaining thoroughly sanctioned by the West (as Iran found out sanctions are forever no matter how many agreements you sign) and with a Ukraine still loaded with biological warfare factories, the CIA and able to once again rearm? For what, a Minsk III?

Now with all the extra blood, the Russian survival of the sanctions, and the votes to join Mother Russia, Putin can no longer make such a brutal mistake. Crush the Ukrainian Army and take the whole of Ukraine, and forget all that legal training and act like a war leader. The West is weak, don't let it regain strength.

Posted by: Roger | Mar 1 2024 19:23 utc | 52

@ bevin 8

Actually, the domino theory is entirely accurate but only in the inverse: if Russia gets what it wants, the necromancy holding imperial vassal states hostage will shift and "an other" way through the newly-minted idea of sovereignty in spheres of influence. Of course, this is not a newly-minted idea but seems to harken back to pre-1914 but this time with nuclear deterrents.

The west's imperial spokespersonx IS telling the truth, because Russia will be able to engage in bilateral trade w/o western hawks standing over the shoulder of these states. They will have "won" new territory..

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Mar 1 2024 19:27 utc | 53

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Mar 1 2024 18:29 utc | 34

"Military prediction distinguish between an opponent's intent and that opponents capability.

It also distinguishes between what is most likely and worst case real possibilities."


The last time, I succeeded in connecting was in the gym when I was 14. My best mate was seriously annoying me and all the girls in our class - so I hit him and sent him flying... I admit I have very occasionally tried since whilst under extreme provocation (usually about girls) but then I just get a pile of girls jumping on top of me - crashing us to the dance floor.

If you are in a pub its good to have some girl friends in support whilst the blokes chuck chairs in the way and try not to laugh.

That way, your opponent gains your utmost respect...cos I wanted to hit him...cos he was being an arsehole.

The next time we meet we hug each other.

Posted by: tonyopmoc | Mar 1 2024 19:30 utc | 54

Reminds me of the Vietnam war. The US presence there was endlessly defended with the domino theory. But in the end the only dominoes that fell were Cambodia and Laos and they had been drawn into the conflict by the US.

Posted by: Wim | Mar 1 2024 19:30 utc | 55

Apparently, Lavrov was asked more than one question at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum and is reported by RT as follows:

"Pentagon chief’s NATO remarks reveal US intent – Moscow: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has claimed Lloyd Austin made a “Freudian slip”"

Testimony given to the US Congress by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is evidence that Washington clearly has plans for direct NATO involvement in a conflict with Russia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed on Friday.

During a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Thursday, Austin said that “if Ukraine falls, I genuinely believe NATO will be fighting Russia.”

Lavrov was asked about Austin’s remarks during an interview at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Türkiye.

He simply made a Freudian slip to reveal what they [the US] had in mind,” the Russian diplomat said. “They used to say they can’t allow Ukraine to lose, because Russia won’t be satisfied and would attack the Baltic states, Poland, [and] Finland next. It turns out, according to Mr. Austin’s frank words, that everything is exactly the opposite. We do not and cannot have such plans, but the Americans do.”

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has already commented on Austin’s remarks, wondering if they were a direct threat to Russia or an attempt to generate excuses for Ukraine.

“Either way, it’s madness,” she said. “But now everyone sees that Washington is the aggressor.”

According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Austin’s testimony proved that “NATO regards Ukraine as its own territory,” which proves that Russia’s military operation is “absolutely justified and correct.” [My Emphasis]

Usually Friday's a dull, slow news days. This March first Friday is not that at all, unless you're in the West and only get propaganda.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 1 2024 19:35 utc | 56

NATO nations have been thoroughly subverted by Sino-Soviet intelligence.

"Russia good, West bad"
"Russia good, West bad"
"Russia good, West bad"

If you repeat it enough it will become true, right?

Juxtapose climate change & critical race theory with military plans of Russia and China... it will come into focus.

Read Anatoliy Golitsyn.

Posted by: Jack A | Mar 1 2024 19:40 utc | 57

When "Security Queens" Panic

Macron is threatening Russia--without NATO. This security queen is writing grandiose checks that his modest military cannot cash. Is he banking on the US flying in as Superman to save the day?

https://www.beyondwasteland.net/p/when-security-queens-panic

Posted by: KevinB | Mar 1 2024 19:41 utc | 58

@Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 1 2024 19:19 utc | 49

China is doing what it does well, playing the good guy while Russia plays the bad guy. Bhadrakumar needs to take a chill pill rather than over-reacting to Western statements designed to coerce Putin into throwing away his pending victory in a negotiated defeat. All of the supposed "Western escalations" have turned into duds, the Crimean bridge rebuilt, the few Russian vessels sunk or damaged, the attempted drone swarm attacks upon Russia turning into sad failures, and now a few pin prick attacks on an odd pipeline - which will be straight-forwardly fixed. While at the same time the Russians have learnt how to shoot down many of the Western rocket and missile wunderwaffe, now of course the Abrams has been added to the list of failed Western wunderwaffe. If the very old in the tooth F16s ever arrive they will meet the same fate.

None of this effects the actual increasingly successful ground offensive in Ukraine. And many nations, including the US and Germany, are holding back from delivering new missiles that could hit Russia deeper. NATO may be a bunch of animals, but they know what would happen if they tried to take Russia on directly - WW3, and there are enough balanced animals to yank the chain of the idiots (especially within the military).

You are verging on being a concern troll here, as is Bhadrakumar, very disappointing.

Posted by: Roger | Mar 1 2024 19:49 utc | 59

Poor ol' Austin ...

No-Sex, Lloyd Lies, and those Kiev videotapes ...

The poor dear! No lead in his pencil!

Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 1 2024 19:50 utc | 60

@56,

This explains Putin reminding the empire that this is existential, and close to the nuclear trip wire.

Putin is in same seat as JFK in 1962.

Posted by: paddy | Mar 1 2024 19:50 utc | 61

Suppose tomorrow the Ukraine war is over. Does the US have enough arms and resources left to repeat the Ukraine gambit, but this time using Taiwan against China? Or will the US first need a decade of inventory building?

Posted by: Passerby | Mar 1 2024 19:55 utc | 62

... the liars that are regularly featured in the western msm - politicians and the lot of them.. they can just fuck right off.. you can only bullshit people so much and then people realize it and never believe a word you say again..

Posted by: james | Mar 1 2024 17:37 utc | 12

Wish that were true, but contemporary western society seems to dwell in a time/space warp that the managers repeatedly exploit with their highly developed propaganda. Kike Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, the good people wake up every day and hear the same old same old BS, repackaged a bit, and accept it again and again as God's truth. It looks like the entire western world has been through a prefrontal lobotomy.

Posted by: Mike R | Mar 1 2024 19:57 utc | 63

Posted by: Mike R | Mar 1 2024 19:57 utc | 63 . . LIKE Bill Murray. . .

Posted by: Mike R | Mar 1 2024 19:58 utc | 64

"NATO nations have been thoroughly subverted by Sino-Soviet intelligence."

LOL! Good one. Did it come from The Onion or Babylon Bee?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 1 2024 20:04 utc | 65

There is no evidence Russia is interested in anything beyond Ukraine. Agreed. There is reason to suspect some countries would feel which way the wind is blowing and move away from NATO.

Posted by: oldhippie | Mar 1 2024 20:08 utc | 66

Down South:

Thanks for the update. Definitely seems like a slowdown in Russian progress. Not the end of the world, but it is what it is. Some people (cough, cough, Kalibrated) got ahead of their skis with comments that Berdiche, Orlivka, and Tonenka were Russian controlled.

I think the U calculus is smart here, to buy time. And the R will have to move troops up and organize to take the various villages, somewhat complicated by the open ground and vehicle passage restricted to roads. And of course if the R never commit sufficient forces to push the U out, they can even just sit at the current front.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I would give the R the upper hand and the better situation. But still shows how some cheerleaders on the R side get too confident. And how the U have will to fight. Have not turned into a horde of running away Arabs or the like.

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 1 2024 20:09 utc | 67

The US is abandoning Ukraine, but needs to do it by controlled demolition so they can keep the Euro-peons in line for the next cold war.. . .

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 1 2024 17:37 utc | 13
==============

Per Tom Luongo at Interpro, dialoging with Alexander Mercouris, the big guys duking it out behind the scenes, or in public but misinterpreted, are von der Leyen and the EU-crats trying to destroy commercial and central banks everywhere vs. Wall Street, which prefers for US commercial banks not to be destroyed.

https://www.theinteldrop.org/2024/02/29/the-holy-grail-for-european-integration-w-tom-luongo-live/

Luongo has been saying this for a long time---I recall for at least a year, and he recalls for longer. Now he ties in this clash of the financial titans into the Ukraine war and Europe's attempt to float war bonds.

This is the central point---bonds---affecting the balance of power between the USA and the EU.

Per Luongo, European war talk re Ukraine is just an excuse to force EU countries to give up their sovereignty to Brussels as the latter seeks to impose taxes etc. to make the euro a real currency and financial system. But they cannot do this as long as the US interest rate remains high. To bring down American banks they have to break up the USA. But Powell is holding interest rates at 5.5%. I can understand Luongo's explanation of how this Calder-like finance mobile works, but I cannot recap it.

Per Luongo the primary struggle in the West is actually between Brussels and the USA. This certainly aligns with much that Michael Hudson has said about what the Ukraine was is really about for the US--destroying Germany and Europe as competitors---although Luongo's terms seem to be different. (I would love to see a podcast with Luongo and Hudson discussing this.)

I cannot recap Luongo's arguments properly---the connection between high interest rates, Eurobonds, and the viability of the two economies and financial systems----and I suggest that everyone watch the video if possible, because Luongo's logic makes sense to me even though I can't recap all of it and explains much of the EU posturing over Ukraine (basically, the EU, like the US, is using the Ukraine and its war).

https://www.theinteldrop.org/2024/02/29/the-holy-grail-for-european-integration-w-tom-luongo-live/


Posted by: Jane | Mar 1 2024 20:10 utc | 68

@ Mike R | Mar 1 2024 19:57 utc | 63

prefrontal lobotomy.. yeah, maybe that is it...

@ tom - cia running things... that is how i see it too, or that the politics don't know whether they are coming or going with all the ''intelligence'' insights that are given from various ''unnamed'' sources and etc. etc... essentially the usa doesn't know its ass from a hole in the head and that is where we are at present.. the blind leading the blind, except i always maintain there is an economic driver behind it all... pat lang used to call me an 'economic determinist'.. i guess he was right...

@ karlof1... thanks for your posts... as for germany.. it was a focus on nordstream - but apparently russia did it, lol... now it is the crimea bridge obsession, and i guess they will claim russia did that too, if these weasals and lowlifes are capable to fulfilling their wet dreams while sitting in buchel germany or where ever...

Posted by: james | Mar 1 2024 20:11 utc | 69

Lavrov about the OSCE.
Actually, the meaning of Russia’s presence in this structure has long been lost. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia leaves it in the next 1-2 years.

Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 1 2024 20:14 utc | 70

NemesisCalling | Mar 1 2024 19:27 utc | 53
True enough. NATO took the sort of gamble that gets individuals into big trouble. Without thinking very much, except wishfully, they decided to throw their long dormant and enormously hyped Alliance into a war that tghey had no doubt that they would win.
Already NATO is looking shabby, inefficient and unfit for the purposes advertised to the 16 new customers it has signed up since 1990,
Why would anyone want to join NATO now? Because it saves time thinking about armaments purchase- NATO members know they must buy American- or because it will lower defence costs? Hardly.
You can almost measure the political IQs of the leaders in places like Armenia and Georgia who still look on NATO as some kind of unbeatable combination as proved by....numerous exagerrated claims and windy orations by the third raters who get to front the Pentagon's European branchplant.
So, yes, you are right- the dominoes are falling inwards. And NATO's end- at least as a serious institution- is nigh.

Posted by: bevin | Mar 1 2024 20:14 utc | 71

Posted by: Jane | Mar 1 2024 20:10 utc | 68

P.S. Per Luongo the explanation of the Nikki Haley phonemenon is that many in the GOP want to see her as Trump's VP pick. So they keep propping her up like a zombie to slotted into the Trump administration.

Posted by: Jane | Mar 1 2024 20:17 utc | 72

I don't know how Austin can say the following with a straight face and not have us think of Gaza & Netanyahu's rampage:

"We know that if Putin is successful here, he will not stop," Austin said. "He will continue to take more aggressive action in the region. And other leaders around the world, other autocrats, will look at this and they'll be encouraged by the fact that this happened and we failed to support a democracy."

Posted by: Ludo | Mar 1 2024 20:18 utc | 73

by Passerby | Mar 1 2024 19:55 utc | 62

US first need a decade of inventory building?

Not only inventory.
It takes good 2 generations to educate proper military cadre to follow the mind of Russians and Chinese. In the meantime, there is no guarantee that Russia or China will not change and improve during this period.

As a Leopard tank is build for defending the Central Europe and its height might be an advantage in Schwartzwald forests or in defending Hof, the Russian tank is very low and is adopted to steppe. Now imagine Abrams with almost 3.60 m in hight and Bradley with 3.5 meters against 2.2 m T-72 or around 2 m high average Russian APC or IFV.

So, they have to rethink entirely new weapons and tactics. Out of time for that.
To go to war with China and Russia simultaneously, in a current state and the shape, generates a direct loss of the entire US Navy in a day.

Posted by: whirlX | Mar 1 2024 20:20 utc | 74

Posted by: Honzo | Mar 1 2024 17:37 utc | 13

Sigh...

Kayfabe. Try to remember the word. Kayfabe. Austin, Macron, Nuland, they're just spouting a line that has nothing to do with reality or intentions.

=============================

Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 1 2024 19:50 utc | 60

Poor ol' Austin ...

No-Sex, Lloyd Lies, and those Kiev videotapes ...

The poor dear! No lead in his pencil!

=================================================

I confess to not being able to 'get it up' for any story about this lump.

Plus he looks like the result of a biological experiment crossing a potato with a pineapple.

Posted by: Scorpion | Mar 1 2024 20:21 utc | 75

Down South @ 46:

I predict that you will soon be relaying news that Kiev plans to abolish high school education for people aged 12+ years, to force teenagers to work on farms from dawn to dusk, while adult agricultural workers are conscripted in a fifth mobilisation.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Mar 1 2024 20:22 utc | 76

Agree. There are multiple reports that state that the british prime minister was instrumental in destroying the agreement between Russia and the Ukraine.

Posted by: WMG | Mar 1 2024 20:23 utc | 77

"West bad"

Exactly.

On the one hand ...

TutMoses III and TiglatPileser III were fxxx amateur:

the West is the latest version of the Roman empire. The West is the deadliest and most fanatical military empire the face of the earth has ever seen because it is an old (ca. 500/1492-) and new (1967-) fusion of Roman imperial ideology and bloody Biblical fantasies.

On the other hand ...

Tomas de Torquemada was a fxxx amateur:

No one relevant can publicly step outside the gigantic Bubble: all the rag dolls of the Congress in Washington and the European puppets are obliged to follow 'the party line' on pain of ostracism. We are the envy of North Korea.


Posted by: Simon | Mar 1 2024 20:27 utc | 78

Thanks @ karlof1 | Mar 1 2024 19:00 utc | 42

Transcript really usefull.

It's a few second to midnight!
Dr Strangelove is Back On The Block

Posted by: La Bastille | Mar 1 2024 20:29 utc | 79

Also untrue that Ukraine is a democracy, and also untrue that the US is supporting it because it is such.

Posted by: Andrew | Mar 1 2024 20:32 utc | 80

tonyopmoc | Mar 1 2024 18:18 utc | 30

Tony!
Where have you been?
It’s been too long.

Posted by: auximenes | Mar 1 2024 20:39 utc | 81

ambiguity
ambiguity


a situation in which something has more than one possible meaning and may therefore cause confusion, or an example of this:


Protecting France’s strategic ambiguity he said “there is no consensus to officially back any ground troops. That said, nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we can to make sure that Russia does not prevail.”


ambiguity
homo or globohomo man woman woman rothschild banker man

the politics of dancing the politics of feeling good the politics of moving is that message understood.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1762307372327010514

Posted by: todd | Mar 1 2024 20:44 utc | 82

karlof1 | Mar 1 2024 18:03 utc | 24

Perhaps some of our Italian barflies can tell us if they read the article when it was published by La Repubblica a week ago on the 22nd

I didn't read it when it came out 'cause I never even heard about it. My wife, the Italian, the avid reader, the intellectual of the family, cut ties with La Repubblica many years ago. They've been sucking uncle sam's dick for a long time, you know, supporting every war, every policy, every mask, and every division cooked up by the atlanticist conglomerate. I think the Agnelli family bought it at some point...which is all you need to know.

Intended audience?

Well, just consider that about 90% of Italians took the clot shot.

Posted by: john | Mar 1 2024 20:46 utc | 83

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 1 2024 18:06 utc | 25
“What do the UK based barflies think about Galloway's resounding victory yesterday? More Gaza related, for sure, but I know he's been critical of NATO in the past.”

My thoughts on Gorgeous George are at the current Open Thread - where I believe they belong? You might not like them. Looks like enough disrupters on the boards today as it is.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 1 2024 20:47 utc | 84

Putin in front of the Duma:

You know that the word "elite" has largely discredited itself. Those who, without any merit for society, consider themselves a kind of caste endowed with special rights and privileges, especially those who in previous years filled their pockets through all kinds of processes in the economy of the 90s, certainly do not constitute the elite. I repeat, the real elite are all those who serve Russia, workers and warriors, reliable, proven people who have proven their devotion to Russia, worthy people.

Now compare with the yankeland or any other western country.

Posted by: Naive | Mar 1 2024 20:48 utc | 85

I do not know who is advising Lloyd, but he has no clue that the war is already lost.
Posted by: whirlX | Mar 1 2024 18:28 utc | 33

Raython is advising Lloyd and the war is not lost. There is still 61 billion to win.
Like Afganistan- left all their stuff so it had to be replaced. The Norwegian goverment just gave the national weaponproducer Kongsberg an infusion of 200 mill, no strings attached. 49% is owned by Raython. Sweeden and Finland have to be armed. Europe is in a buying frenzie. Lost?

And the stupid Ukrainians, have sold/ given away their country to Blackstone and Soros. Lost?

The Veteran Case is lost:

"On February 29, an international conference "Creating an Effective Veteran Policy in Ukraine: Using International Experience and Developing an Action Plan" was held in Kyiv, during which a wide range of issues related to social protection, medical care, psychological support and economic reintegration of war veterans and their families was raised.

According to the initiator and organizer of the conference, the head of the NGO "Free and Faithful", volunteer serviceman Vitaliy Hersak, Ukrainian and foreign experts, politicians, military, volunteers and representatives of public organizations united on one communication platform so that in the tenth year of the Russian-Ukrainian war and in the third year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an effective state policy on the protection of veterans finally appeared.

Authoritative representatives of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, as well as the Ministry of Veterans Affairs of Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Prosecutor General's Office, the Office of the President of Ukraine, and people's deputies of Ukraine took an active part in the conference. Thematic reports were made by such well-known American figures as Prince Taylor - a well-known veterans advocate, former military man, author of many programs for the adaptation of veterans, Bonnie Carroll - president and founder of TAPS, Andre Hollis - head of Tiger International Advisors, ex-employee of the US Department of Defense, Nathan White-Wilson - head of Gallant Knights Private Security Services and others.


The participants of the conference were unanimous that the study of the American experience and the development of an action plan for its adaptation to Ukrainian conditions will be an important step forward in reforming state policy in the field of veterans' protection.

The next step will be the creation of an expert working group that will adapt the most successful international experience of veteran policy to the Ukrainian context and formalize it in the appropriate Action Plan. Further, this plan will be made public at the upcoming international conference in Washington, after which it will be presented to members of the US Congress and proposed for practical implementation to Ukrainian government officials and parliamentarians.

https://zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/ukrajina-vivchatime-amerikanskij-dosvid-pidtrimki-veteraniv-vijni.html

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Mar 1 2024 20:53 utc | 86

The Mental Software

The Mental Software of the western ruling class is the time and again renewed fusion of Roman imperial ideology and the bloody and fanatical brutality of the book of Deuteronomy.

Posted by: Simon | Mar 1 2024 20:53 utc | 87

RE: "We know that if Putin is successful here, he will not stop," Austin said. "He will continue to take more aggressive action in the region. And other leaders around the world, other autocrats, will look at this and they'll be encouraged by the fact that this happened and we failed to support a democracy."

Posted by: Ludo | Mar 1 2024 20:18 utc | 73

Translation: “Please Congress, pass to us at Raytheon the 60 billion Joe wants so I don’t have to speak these tropes and sound like an idiot day in and day out publicly. Signed:
Lloyd.”

Posted by: Trubind1 | Mar 1 2024 20:58 utc | 88

RE: Posted by: Paul from Norway | Mar 1 2024 20:53 utc | 86

Just a note: Blackstone, Monsanto, Soros “plans & contracts” hardly matter if they don’t have a field to plant, a plot to build on or a Media to own and run.
Just saying, they gambled & lost. All the best lands are gone or will be, including Odessa. They’ll have to fight over the bones of the rump that’s left, if even existent Ukraine.
Business is business.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Mar 1 2024 21:06 utc | 89

@Jane | Mar 1 2024 20:17 utc | 72

It doesn't matter that much these days who is Pres or VP

The 'Blob/MIC' and the 'Lobby' will still reign supreme.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 1 2024 21:13 utc | 90

Just a note: Blackstone, Monsanto, Soros “plans & contracts” hardly matter if they don’t have a field to plant, a plot to build on or a Media to own and run.
Just saying, they gambled & lost. All the best lands are gone or will be, including Odessa. They’ll have to fight over the bones of the rump that’s left, if even existent Ukraine.
Business is business.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Mar 1 2024 21:06 utc | 89

Believe me, they will be compenzatied, they will not lose. If they bougth something in POltava, that will be russian, they will get real estaste in Kiev. They will of cource co-ordinate the re-building of Ukraina with European money.

So, no it's not lost. As you say: Business is business.

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Mar 1 2024 21:13 utc | 91


The Ukrainian army is collapsing, and given the fact NATO's special forces have attacked Russian civilian targets, I don't foresee Putin compromising on his demands.
Posted by: pyrrhus | Mar 1 2024 19:22 utc | 51

NATO can still unleash immense airstrikes and kill many Russians. USA has thousands Tomahawks. Some would be destroyed by AA defense, but not all.
Russia did everything to prevent conflict with NATO until know because Russia is afraid of that kind of conflict.
And that is logical.

Posted by: vargas | Mar 1 2024 21:14 utc | 92

So many things in that transcript. German officials freely discussing hot topics with someone in Singapore. Being surveilled, published by Russia. That alone is criminal and massive egg on their faces.

The fact that planning around Taurus scenarios happens is not even critical, that can't be done the day before a political decision. The "generals" are sort of balanced even more careful about red lines than the politicians.

Interesting how they immediately proceed to stalling tactics and precluding direct participations. Defending against political stupidity.

Of course Ukraine wants to waste the missiles on political targets like the bridge. Funny how targeting the pylons doesn't get mentioned, a bridge is nothing like a runway.

It takes six months to mount Taurus to planes so nothing is especially quick here. There is no confidence to deal with AD other than locating and avoiding radar. With these considerations downing A50s makes a lot of sense.

Admissions about British and French operations are damning too. Same for the singint provided to UKR.

Leaking all this is terrible OpSec or almost treason, wonder how this happens.

In any case this is scorched earth, that project is dead, probably intentionally. Sounds like somebody badly wanted to kill a really stupid idea.

Posted by: SOS | Mar 1 2024 21:15 utc | 93

RE: Posted by: Jane | Mar 1 2024 20:10 utc | 68

Germany is destroying themselves.
It’s their national theme. It’s always been that way.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Mar 1 2024 21:18 utc | 94

THX! b

Posted by: AG | Mar 1 2024 21:20 utc | 95

It's interesting to watch Russia/Putin fighting in Ukraine; they're moving slowly, kicking ass; but doing so so slowly and deliberately so as not to set off any alarms; and we're talking (NATO/US/UK/"the West") big and bold, throwing all we can to help the Ukrainians. Putin is no fool, and not interested in conquering land, but protecting Russian interest and Russian peoples. I guess you ignore the threats but yet still have to logically and factually answer. We don't look much different from Israel the IDF at this point--the neo-cons are behind the planning on both fronts. I fear my country, what we may do, and what we can do. I worry more for my kids. Their mother is from Algeria, and I figured decades ago that would likely be a better place to live than Dallas TX. Dallas is booming economically, despite sabotage by the state GOP, the Federal gov't and our allies. I predicted back then that Algeria, being the #2 gas supplier to Europe would benefit while Russia would take on the heat (Walter Payton running behind Refrigerator Perry) I hate being correct. Maybe my daughter can wrestle for Algeria's national team in the Olympics; maybe we can still get over there, the benefits may become easy to see; all too soon. I was in Algeria when the Russian/Georgian crisis unfolded, when Putin showed that W was bluffing. That was embarrassing, but this might be catastrophe. You don't avoid embarrassment by doubling down, and doubling down again and again. Putin ain't bluffing and is about to call.

Posted by: scottindallas | Mar 1 2024 21:24 utc | 96

Hiding behind the manufacturer is also an interesting idea. Guess Ryssia has some new locations on their missile lists now if they didn't know Schrobenhausen before.

It will also not sit well with the manufacturer - why assume that liability? Deniability is also laughable, the company can do nothing across borders without top level political approval.

The deal is planning missions under the guise of "training data" now.

Ukrainians would also be handed the missiles with no control (seen as participation) so hitting Moscow would be an obvious danger.

Russia can start treating any advisor as combatant now legally.

Arms export controls probably also violate the constitution in various ways.

Not the least interesting is the approach of shipping missiles via armored carriers.a

"Driving cars in Poland" and the "Munich press question" are hilarious insights into the German military mindset.

Politicians all, not generals.. Gesundheit!

Posted by: SOS | Mar 1 2024 21:24 utc | 97

@Trubind1

"Germany is destroying themselves.
It’s their national theme. It’s always been that way."

That's bullshit.

Posted by: Apollyon | Mar 1 2024 21:25 utc | 98

"Guess Ryssia has some new locations on their missile lists now if they didn't know Schrobenhausen before."

They surely did. That's where the Taurus system is manufactured.

Posted by: Apollyon | Mar 1 2024 21:27 utc | 99

Liburl 45; It sounds to me like you were talking like Mick Jagger in "Far Away Eyes" "I was pleased with this I ran 4 redlights in his honor. Thank you, Jesus. Thank you Lord.'

Posted by: scottindallas | Mar 1 2024 21:35 utc | 100

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