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French Defense Reports Acknowledge Ukraine Is Done With
The French president Macron has recently pushed for an engagement of foreign troops in Ukraine. The idea was immediately rejected by every country that would be able to send a reasonable number.
The question is why Macron suddenly came out with this.
A series of recent reports from the French defense establishment might have caused his irritation.
The French magazine Marianne got access to "several confidential defense reports" from the French army on the situation in Ukraine.
Guerre en Ukraine : de la prudence à l'affolement… Ce que cache le virage de Macron (archived) – Marianne, Mar 7 2024
Arnaud Bertrand has translated large parts of it:
The situation looks exceedingly bleak for Ukraine, which might in part explain Macron's recent declarations around sending troops to Ukraine. I translated the important parts of the article:
"A Ukrainian military victory now seems impossible"
The reports Marianne consulted write that Ukraine's counter-offensive "gradually bogged down in mud and blood and did not result in any strategic gain" and that its planning, conceived by Kiev and Western general staffs, turned out to be "disastrous": "Planners thought that once the first Russian defense lines were breached, the entire front would collapse […] These fundamental preliminary phases were conducted without considering the moral forces of the enemy in defense: that is, the will of the Russian soldier to hold onto the terrain".
The reports also highlight "the inadequacy of the training of Ukrainian soldiers and officers": due to a lack of officers and a significant number of veterans, these "Year II soldiers" from Ukraine – often trained for "no more than three weeks" – were launched into an assault on a Russian fortification line that proved impregnable.
Somehow people who had never heard of the Battle of Kursk convinced themselves that Russian soldiers in defensive positions would run away as soon as they would hear a tank rumbling towards them. They of course did not do so.
These Russian troops are well managed and cared for:
The reports also highlight that contrary to Ukraine "the Russians have managed their reserve troops well, to ensure operational endurance." According to this document, Moscow reinforces its units before they are completely worn out, mixes recruits with experienced troops, ensures regular rest periods in the rear… and "always had a coherent reserve force to manage unforeseen events." This is far from the widespread idea in the West of a Russian army sending its troops to the slaughter without counting…
The Ukrainians on the other side are done with:
"To date, the Ukrainian general staff does not have a critical mass of land forces capable of inter-arms maneuver at the corps level capable of challenging their Russian counterparts to break through its defensive line," concludes this confidential defense report, according to which "the gravest error of analysis and judgment would be to continue to seek exclusively military solutions to stop the hostilities". A French officer summarizes: "It is clear, given the forces present, that Ukraine cannot win this war militarily."
The fall of Avdeevka has shown that the Ukrainian military, even on the defensive, will inevitably lose the fight:
"The Ukrainian armed forces have tactically shown that they do not possess the human and material capabilities […] to hold a sector of the front that is subjected to the assailant's effort," continues the document. "The Ukrainian failure in Avdiivka shows that, despite the emergency deployment of an 'elite' brigade – the 3rd Azov Air Assault Brigade –, Kiev is not capable of locally restoring a sector of the front that collapses," alerts this last report.
In consequence the Russian forces will simply move on:
What the Russians will do with this tactical success remains to be seen. Will they continue in the current mode of "nibbling and slowly shaking" the entire front line, or will they seek to "break through in depth"? "The terrain behind Avdiivka allows it," signals this recent document, also warning that Western sources tend to "underestimate" the Russians, themselves adept at the practice of "Maskirovka," "appearing weak when strong." According to this analysis, after two years of war, Russian forces have thus shown their ability to "develop operational endurance" that allows them to wage "a slow and long-intensity war based on the continuous attrition of the Ukrainian army."
There is nothing really new in the above for people who have followed the facts on the ground.
So why were western media, and politicians like Macron, late in recognizing the real situation?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 11 2024 20:23 utc | 71
The American voting public will never again have a choice between candidates for high elected office that represents any significant threat to the “establishment” (Wall Street, MIC, mass media, Beltway elite) status quo.
thanks to Tom_Q_Collings @168 for his post of the link to
https://tomdispatch.com/the-american-empire-in-ultimate-crisis/ it fills in much of the following:
Posted by: La Bastille | Mar 12 2024 21:04 utc | 109
Macron’s position can be summed up as a form of blackmail.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 12 2024 21:17 utc | 114
His position is very simple: to bankrupt the country and privatise everything. No blackmail, just a program to be carried to its end.
<=Worldwide, those with agendas use the nation state system [its law, treaties. politics, economy, trade agreements, militarized police, scientifically designed and engineered propaganda, etc.] to force the governed into environments that corrupt the purpose of government but enhance the private interest of those with agendas[profit is an agenda].
<=On both sides of the Atlantic and Pacific, the game has been to privatize the assets, rights, monopoly powers and resources owned by national governments. The so-called one world government is not intended to be a government in the true sense of the meaning of the word government; instead it is intended that all national governments will become departments within the global, privately owned, multi-national Mafia-like commercial enterprises. And of course it is the wealthy, powerful few who own these Mafia-like commercial enterprises.
Exclusive ownership of all monopoly power, exclusive ownership of all assets [tangible and intangible], exclusive ownership of all authority and rights of whatever kind or nature characterizes the initial condition of the governments that operate within each state of the 256 national governments within the nation state system. In theory, the government owns each human and everything the human can invent, discover or produce, the government exclusively owns all land, all improvements, all natural resources, all technology, all rights (including the right to print money and to murder or enslave its citizens (arguably humans rights are operative only when the governed humanity is powerful enough to enforce their human rights against government authority).
The government has one and only responsibility, it is expected to provide from its assets, resources, and monopoly powers the best possible welfare for those it governs?
Taking the above as the starting point, it is easy to see that private interest have taken over the nation state system and assumed ownership of all assets and all rights, all resources and all monopoly powers. The only part of government remaining in national government is the obligation of government to provide for the welfare of those it governs<=but government no longer has the resources it needs to do that? IOWs humanity has been robbed, first by its government, and then by those who robbed the government.
Consider
Monopoly powers (copyrights, deeds and patents [CDPs], created by rule of law IOT transfer government owned assets and monopoly powers to a few private owners (corporation, partnership, trust or oligarch).
In light of the above, it is not difficult to see that governments have given so much of their assets and monopoly powers away; that governments no longer have the ability to direct the use of resources or to exercise monopoly powers to pursue their obligations to provide for the general welfare. These powers, assets and rights are now owned by private enterprise and private enterprise is owned by very very few selected from the masses.
Unfortunately Private enterprise has been taken over by gangsters-types who have been made so powerful by these transfers that they now own or control the governments that made them so powerful.
If the premise is true, that government owns everything and retains all monopoly powers and is constituted solely to use "its all" to provide for the general welfare, how would government ever justify war?
Posted by: snake | Mar 13 2024 7:05 utc | 266
This is just delusional:
https://ria.ru/20240313/putin-1932652995.html
– The fact is that the military of Western countries have been present in Ukraine for a long time, they were present even before the coup d’etat, and after the coup d’etat their number increased multiple times. Now they are present directly, in the form of advisers, they are present in the form of foreign mercenaries and are suffering losses. But if we are talking about official military contingents of foreign states, then I am sure that this will not change the situation on the battlefield. It’s the most important. Just as the supply of weapons does not change anything.
[…]
They use these British and American missiles. This does not change the situation on the battlefield. Yes, they simply cause us harm, of course. It is obvious. But in essence, this does not change the course of hostilities and the consequences that inevitably occur for the opposite side. We are now hearing what they have in the same Germany. And your channels, and foreign channels, and German channels show how many of them are out of order, how much they require improvement, modernization, and so on. Let them work.
Also, this is the first time ever he mentions Kherson:
– Vladimir Vladimirovich, but still, during the difficult moments of last year at the front, in connection with Kharkov or Kherson, did the thought of tactical nuclear weapons flash through your mind?
– For what? Despite the fact that, at the proposal of the then command, this group, on our part, a decision was made to withdraw troops from Kherson, but this did not at all mean that our front there was falling apart. There was nothing even close to this. This was simply done in order not to incur unnecessary losses among personnel. That’s all. This was the most important motive, because in conditions of combat operations, when it was impossible to fully supply the group located on the right bank, we would simply suffer unjustified losses of personnel. Because of this, it was decided to relocate to the left bank.
And the correctness of this choice was confirmed by what the Ukrainian command tried to do in certain areas of the left bank – in the same settlement of Krynki. They just threw their people in there like into a meat grinder and that’s it. They’ve been running around there barefoot lately, in the literal sense of the word. In the literal sense of the word. They tried to throw ammunition there by high-speed boats and drones. Well, what is it? Well? It was just for slaughter, they were just sent for slaughter.
The moment when it will be difficult to supply Kaliningrad will also come soon. Is he going to just pull out of there too?
Also, just meekly accepting the use of NATO equipment to invade Russia:
– I can’t help but ask, Vladimir Vladimirovich, these attacks on the Belgorod and Kursk regions are simply military actions that are taking place in our regions. Are they acting more brazen, are they feeling something? What causes this?
– The explanation is very simple. All this is happening against the backdrop of failures on the line of contact, on the front line. They did not achieve any of the goals they set for themselves last year. Moreover, now the initiative has completely passed to our armed forces. Everyone knows this, everyone admits it, here, I think, I won’t say anything new. But against the backdrop of those failures, they need to show at least something, and mainly attention should be focused on the information side of the matter. Here on the state border line the enemy tried to attack, first of all, with sabotage groups – here is the latest report of the General Staff – somewhere up to 300 people, including with the participation of foreign mercenaries. The enemy’s losses amounted to more than 200 people, approximately 230. Of the eight tanks used, the enemy lost seven, of nine armored vehicles – nine, of which seven were American-made Bradley. Other armored vehicles were also used, but mainly for transporting personnel: they bring them up, drop them off and immediately leave. This is on the Belgorod section of the border. There, a little further south, in my opinion, in one place, with much smaller forces. But nevertheless, the main goal, I have no doubt about it, is to, if not disrupt the presidential elections in Russia, then at least somehow interfere with the normal process of expressing the will of citizens. First. Secondly, this is the information effect, which I have already mentioned. But thirdly, if at least something works out, to get some chance, some argument, some trump card in a possible future negotiation process: well, we will return this to you, and you will return this to us. I said that it is easier to talk to people who are guided by the principles of “fed, drunk and nose in the known material”, because you can take into account what they are going to do. They will also try in some other areas. But we see it.
And not a word about the deep rear hits.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 13 2024 7:47 utc | 281
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