French Defense Reports Acknowledge Ukraine Is Done With
The French president Macron has recently pushed for an engagement of foreign troops in Ukraine. The idea was immediately rejected by every country that would be able to send a reasonable number.
The question is why Macron suddenly came out with this.
A series of recent reports from the French defense establishment might have caused his irritation.
The French magazine Marianne got access to "several confidential defense reports" from the French army on the situation in Ukraine.
Guerre en Ukraine : de la prudence à l'affolement… Ce que cache le virage de Macron (archived) - Marianne, Mar 7 2024
Arnaud Bertrand has translated large parts of it:
The situation looks exceedingly bleak for Ukraine, which might in part explain Macron's recent declarations around sending troops to Ukraine. I translated the important parts of the article:"A Ukrainian military victory now seems impossible"
The reports Marianne consulted write that Ukraine's counter-offensive "gradually bogged down in mud and blood and did not result in any strategic gain" and that its planning, conceived by Kiev and Western general staffs, turned out to be "disastrous": "Planners thought that once the first Russian defense lines were breached, the entire front would collapse [...] These fundamental preliminary phases were conducted without considering the moral forces of the enemy in defense: that is, the will of the Russian soldier to hold onto the terrain".
The reports also highlight "the inadequacy of the training of Ukrainian soldiers and officers": due to a lack of officers and a significant number of veterans, these "Year II soldiers" from Ukraine - often trained for "no more than three weeks" - were launched into an assault on a Russian fortification line that proved impregnable.
Somehow people who had never heard of the Battle of Kursk convinced themselves that Russian soldiers in defensive positions would run away as soon as they would hear a tank rumbling towards them. They of course did not do so.
These Russian troops are well managed and cared for:
The reports also highlight that contrary to Ukraine "the Russians have managed their reserve troops well, to ensure operational endurance." According to this document, Moscow reinforces its units before they are completely worn out, mixes recruits with experienced troops, ensures regular rest periods in the rear... and "always had a coherent reserve force to manage unforeseen events." This is far from the widespread idea in the West of a Russian army sending its troops to the slaughter without counting...
The Ukrainians on the other side are done with:
"To date, the Ukrainian general staff does not have a critical mass of land forces capable of inter-arms maneuver at the corps level capable of challenging their Russian counterparts to break through its defensive line," concludes this confidential defense report, according to which "the gravest error of analysis and judgment would be to continue to seek exclusively military solutions to stop the hostilities". A French officer summarizes: "It is clear, given the forces present, that Ukraine cannot win this war militarily."
The fall of Avdeevka has shown that the Ukrainian military, even on the defensive, will inevitably lose the fight:
"The Ukrainian armed forces have tactically shown that they do not possess the human and material capabilities [...] to hold a sector of the front that is subjected to the assailant's effort," continues the document. "The Ukrainian failure in Avdiivka shows that, despite the emergency deployment of an 'elite' brigade – the 3rd Azov Air Assault Brigade –, Kiev is not capable of locally restoring a sector of the front that collapses," alerts this last report.
In consequence the Russian forces will simply move on:
What the Russians will do with this tactical success remains to be seen. Will they continue in the current mode of "nibbling and slowly shaking" the entire front line, or will they seek to "break through in depth"? "The terrain behind Avdiivka allows it," signals this recent document, also warning that Western sources tend to "underestimate" the Russians, themselves adept at the practice of "Maskirovka," "appearing weak when strong." According to this analysis, after two years of war, Russian forces have thus shown their ability to "develop operational endurance" that allows them to wage "a slow and long-intensity war based on the continuous attrition of the Ukrainian army."
There is nothing really new in the above for people who have followed the facts on the ground.
So why were western media, and politicians like Macron, late in recognizing the real situation?
Posted by b on March 12, 2024 at 16:59 UTC | Permalink
next page »NATO members are in denial, like Hitler was, in the face of Russian military capabilities. They, like Hitler, are moving “empty divisions” on the board… But these empty divisions are facing real Russian units.
Posted by: Liberator | Mar 12 2024 17:18 utc | 2
Macron is a bullshit artist, to be fair he’s not the first that France has had. French leaders have a tendency to try to use the European project as a vehicle for French greatness, the problem as the French often find out is that other countries don’t always have the good manners to accept French leadership and direction.
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Mar 12 2024 17:21 utc | 3
Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian border at 3 points and tried to break through into Russia. Russians claim they killed 234 Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed some Bradleys. However, the fact that Russia hasn't pushed Ukrainian soldiers back from this area, and that Ukraine makes bolder moves as time goes on, shows that Shadowbanned is correct in his assessments.
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20214899
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 12 2024 17:24 utc | 4
I believe that shadowbanned is absolutely not a paid troll and that he is instead a misunderstood Russian patriot who writes with American spelling but sounds like a Brit. This heinous border incursion is a humiliation and SB is absolutely correct that it is worth a nuclear war and 30 million Russian dead in order to avenge this slight
Posted by: Shadow | Mar 12 2024 17:30 utc | 5
Macron's jewish owners fear they're are going to lose all the Ukrainian lands (and slaves) that were supposed to belong to them through blackrock, or through them being chosen by satan or something. It's in the middle-eastern terrorist pamphlets they wrote a few thousand years ago. So of course the microp**** is going to be angry. Or is it baffled? Like in, doctors are baffled?
What's even worse is that they might not be able to create a septic, gangrenous new jewish nation (israhell 2.0) attached like a tick to Russia's side, where it would spew endless terrorism, bio-warfare and of course incessant hypersonic moaning and screeching. "Six million! Six million!" (Like they screeched at Russia for decades before the austrian painter was even an adult).
Posted by: Michael A | Mar 12 2024 17:36 utc | 6
This assessment is not new among French General Staff Officers.
Even in 2022 they acknowledged that Ukraine cannot win this war.
But they were silenced and even good retired générals were ignored by MSM.
So why this report now ?
1 - Top Brass know fairly well that sending troops will lead to a massacre.
2 - Sending more gears will simply deplete French Army in such a way that she will be irrelevant for many years.
It's in line with Top Brass rejecting macron's will to send Leclerc MBT or Mirage 2000 to ukraine
Posted by: aleksandar | Mar 12 2024 17:37 utc | 7
Problem is, while we question Russian declarations, Nato-lands and their leaders believe their own bulls**t. Just like the East-German citizens said after the reunification : "what our press was saying about communism was false and we knew it but what they said about capitalism was true and that surprises us".
Posted by: John V. Doe | Mar 12 2024 17:40 utc | 8
Problem is, while we question Russian declarations, Nato-lands and their leaders believe their own bulls**t. Just like the East-German citizens said after the reunification : "what our press was saying about communism was false and we knew it but what they said about capitalism was true and that surprises us".
Posted by: John V. Doe | Mar 12 2024 17:40 utc | 9
Anybody is considering the massive use of cocaine and other drugs by Western elites? By the way, Hitler was a cocaine-addicted. It is proven fact that USD and EUR (and GBP) banknotes are the most contaminated by cocaine all over the world. Not all of Western politicians are cocaine-addicted, but I wonder actually how many of them, and in which posts.
I don't actually think all this insanity is directly caused by drug addiction, far from it, it's another symptom, not a cause by itself. But all is that Darwinistic, people consume drugs in order to adapt an environment to live in. The system needs insane people to manage it, and these imbecilles need drugs to go on.
This wonderful Western civilization is the very one that thrived in a sort of drunkard existence from Middle Ages until the medical-scientific revolution, when consumed ethanol (alcoholic beverages) since water cannot be consumed because of hygienic troubles (very serious ones). Most of the historic leaders, if not all, were alcoholic and did judgements in a state of drunkness according to modern standards. Needless to say from there down in the social scale.
It's one more straw in the camel's back. By the way, the Chinese state was collapsed from outside with the British opium, this strategy was recurrent, with less complex societies, there were (Westerners) fully aware of all this.
I would like to know how many and who are cocaine addicts in the Biden administration and/or the European Council. I guess the non-addicts are simply raging mads. More or less like the nazi elite.
Posted by: wonderer | Mar 12 2024 17:42 utc | 10
Posted by: Shadow | Mar 12 2024 17:30 utc | 5
Wonder how many people will chide you b/c they don't get the sarcasm.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 12 2024 17:46 utc | 11
the west wakes up to reality that already existed. Next stop, Dnieper River.
Posted by: Not A Bot | Mar 12 2024 17:50 utc | 12
Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian border at 3 points and tried to break through into Russia. Russians claim they killed 234 Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed some Bradleys. However, the fact that Russia hasn't pushed Ukrainian soldiers back from this area, and that Ukraine makes bolder moves as time goes on, shows that Shadowbanned is correct in his assessments.
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20214899
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 12 2024 17:24 utc | 4
So in strategic terms what was the point of this operation?
Ukrainians aren't stupid. They just sacrificed at least a company of trained men and vital machines for what? They aren't going to get to Moscow and you know the Russians aren't going to let them hold onto any territory they sieze. Recon in force doesn't really make sense unless they are planning offensive operations in that direction.
Perhaps they are trying to get the Russians to pull forces out of the Donbas and spend time clearing the borderlands to take the pressure off the center just like you want the Russians to do?
Don't tell me it's a coincidence that the Uke's are also threatening an amphibious assault south of Kherson at the same time. Usually in those types of operations you want an element of surprise yet there was Budanov just the other day announcing his plans just like a supervillian. The Ukrainians are desperate to relieve the pressure in the center.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 12 2024 17:55 utc | 13
Not A Bot | Mar 12 2024 17:50 utc | 13
"Next stop, Dnieper River."
Hopefully. But I saw so many posts about "cauldrons" and "kesseln" after Artemovsk/Bakhmut - and here we are.
Things that can't go on forever, won't. But there's a deal of ruin in a nation, even 404.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 12 2024 17:57 utc | 14
So why were western media, and politicians like Macron, late in recognizing the real situation?
Well:
1) First they thought Russia would destroy Ukraine in days so they offered the Jewish Comedian to move his governtment to London.
2) Next they noted the small Russian force and they bribed the Jewish Comedian to fight the war with the idea that Western arms will help hold the line until Western economic sanction would win the war for Ukraine.
3) Next Russia understood the Ukrainians had ammassed a very large arsenal from Western military (including lots of Soviet materiel from former Soviet vassals) and Treasury from Western taxpayers and decided to retreat in the South and the North causing extasis in Westeros.
4) Next Russia beefed up her forces and fortified the line while Ukraine planned its Great Olde Ukrainian Spring-Summer Counter-Offensive (GOUSSCO) which it proceeded to execute too late and with great trepidation, fanfarre and incompetence.
5) Next GOUSSCO failed but Russia did not accelerate the tempo instead continuing slowly winning and attriting and this is where we are now.
Logically this is the late time when Western honchos like mommy boy have to take a stand, either walk away or walk in.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Mar 12 2024 17:57 utc | 15
Macron and his cabinet need the declaration of "war economy", at least in France, but prefereably in the whole EU, to be able to put their thief hands into European taxpayers savings.
Bruno Le Maire that "economist" with a degree in French Literature, came out with it during the meeting of Eu economy ministers in Bruges ( Belgium )...
That´s it...
They risk being hung in the fachade of L´ Élysée...for the mismanagement of French economy...during...and fater "the pandemic"...
They aim at getting the helm of the EU now that Germany is in low hours, after its industrial debacle cause by the terrorist attack by the US and Norway on its vital energy arteries...
Reading today that all of a sudden comissary Thierry Breton ( former member of Macron´s cabinet and at the board of ATOS, along other ex-members of Macron´s cabinet, aspiring to manage all the Europeans´ data "from craddle to grave"....) have tried to sink Von der Leyen´s aspirations to lead again the European Comission...It would be entertaining watching these two vultures, vomiting Europeans´ blood, trying to get rid of each other by unveiling their shenaningas with "vaccines" contracts and all the corruption behind that during the past four years.....
What we are seeing here is a fight amongst EU major powers, Germany and France, for getting their hands into European taxpayers savings and money and leading the coming European digital panopticon....
This is why Petit Napoleon thought he had a chance.....
May be the French Army should stop these degrees in literature before they break the whole service ?
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Mar 12 2024 18:00 utc | 16
Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian border at 3 points and tried to break through into Russia. Russians claim they killed 234 Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed some Bradleys. However, the fact that Russia hasn't pushed Ukrainian soldiers back from this area, and that Ukraine makes bolder moves as time goes on, shows that Shadowbanned is correct in his assessments. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20214899Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 12 2024 17:24 utc | 4
I was also correct to guess they used Bradleys in the attempted invasion.
Which is hugely significant, and even more significant is the fact that nobody notices it. That means the use of NATO equipment to directly attack pre-war Russian soil has been fully normalized now.
This is what failure to enforce red lines leads to.
And worse -- it won't stop with these Bradleys, missiles are coming.
A very clear policy on this issue could avoid coming to this moment -- for example, if munitions or equipment sent by you are used to attack Russia, your factories that produce it will be destroyed immediately, not matter where they are. But the Kremlin of course would have started enforcing this policy with Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, long before it came Lockheed Martin's, Raytheon's, and General Dynamics' turn, precisely in order so that Lockheed Martin's, Raytheon's, and General Dynamics' turn never comes.
Instead here we are, with missiles soon to be launched into pre-war Russia with impunity and forcing the Kremlin to make the ultimate choice.
P.S. It appears that the Belgorod administration building was hit with an Australian drone. Likely a lot of the drone strikes deep in the Russian rear in recent days are done with various Western drones too, it's just that nobody reports these details.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 12 2024 18:07 utc | 17
This heinous border incursion
There is no evidence that the terrorist brigades even reached the Russian Federation border. There is evidence of a small expeditionary force being annihilated.
I agree that nuclear warfare is the only possible way Russia can possibly avenge this embarrassing failure by NATO to commit a terrorist incursion by nominally Russian but obviously Ukrainian forces into Russia proper on the eve of elections. It's the Maerican way.
I mean, I guess Nulands surprise wasn't so surprising.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 12 2024 18:08 utc | 18
Has anyone answered the earlier question as to why FAB attacks west of Adviivka seem to have been suspended?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 12 2024 18:09 utc | 19
And like the fucking energizer bunny, here's shadowbanned to achstually explain if only Russia nuked Ukraine they wouldn't have dared to get murdered en masse without accomplishing anything. In other words trying to polish a turd.
The wannabe terrorists and their equipment are in pieces all over the border regions near Belgorod, unfortunately for shadowbanneds sponsors.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 12 2024 18:11 utc | 20
That's not the point. Everyone knows that Macron's expeditionary force will not turn the tide. The point is to se The Sunk Cost Fallacy to justify further escalation.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Mar 12 2024 18:11 utc | 21
Likely a lot of the drone strikes deep in the Russian rear in recent days are done with various Western drones too, it's just that nobody reports these details.
Oh get out. I read it on telegram same as you did. There's plenty of time to account for all these crimes once the war is won, which is being done. Handily.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 12 2024 18:12 utc | 22
I agree that nuclear warfare is the only possible way Russia can possibly avenge this embarrassing failure by NATO to commit a terrorist incursionPosted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 12 2024 18:08 utc | 19
Was it also a failure in Kstovo and Oryol (that is just from today)?
Was it also a failure on December 30th in Belgorod? And the subsequent other two times Belgorod civilians were successfully bombed?
Was it a failure for the people who died in the sabotaged Il-76 (rumor now has that it was a whole A-50 crew that was going to pick up a new A-50)?
Was it a failure to commit terrorism for the people who were wounded in the Belgorod administration building (one of them apparently fairly seriously)?
Etc.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 12 2024 18:14 utc | 23
My Quislings at MOA are doing a great job $Posted by: Vladolph Pitler | Mar 12 2024 17:38 utc | 8
Wanna see a treasonous Quisling? Look in the mirror. Your own ancestors would be ashamed.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 12 2024 18:14 utc | 24
"Anybody is considering the massive use of cocaine and other drugs by Western elites?"
That western leaders go through epic quantities of honk is no secret. It doesn't matter - if, to give one example, BoJo pushes The Button because he was higher than a kite, it doesn't change the fact that he still pushed The Button.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Mar 12 2024 18:15 utc | 25
Was it also a failureWas it also a failure
Was it also a failure
Yes. NATO isn't on a winning streak, unless you count murdering kids in Gaza.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 12 2024 18:16 utc | 26
So in strategic terms what was the point of this operation?
Dominance display by NATO -- we can invade you and you have to take it.
Ukrainians aren't stupid. They just sacrificed at least a company of trained men and vital machines for what? Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 12 2024 17:55 utc | 14
Correction -- the American, the British and the French sacrificed a bunch of Russians (officially so in this case -- it was the modern Vlasovites who mostly did this once again).
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 12 2024 18:18 utc | 27
On the other hand, pols show that things could turn 180 degrees in sign in the coming European elections....
Already showing signs of alarm by the debacle of socialdemocrats in Portugal, and the victory of one "Workers Party" lead by no mincing words Galloway in a UK by-election, which brought the City´s errands boy, Sunnak, into histerics, accusing all pro-Palestine demonstrators of being Hamas members...
Desperation is evident....and, when desperate, incapable pscyho people make a lot of errors...like entering a psychopatic storm....which well could be what we have before our eyes unleashing....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YnGhW4UEhc
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Mar 12 2024 18:21 utc | 28
Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian border at 3 points and tried to break through into Russia.
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 12 2024 17:24 utc | 4
Every day Ukraine does something that makes no military sense, but is good enough for 30 seconds tv news.
Posted by: Passerby | Mar 12 2024 18:21 utc | 29
Dominance display by NATO -- we can invade you and you have to take it.
Coffee came out my nose at the absurdity of this statement. The attackers are all dead. If a man trying to prove his virility can't get his dick hard is that supposed to show dominance? Absurd. The invaders failed to launch. Like the Minuteman and Trident tests. Lies and bullshit can get you far in life..but it doesn't win wars.
What they're showing is impotent rage. Enraged people do irrational and stupid shit. Given Maericas proclivity for idiotic shit, this is saying something.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 12 2024 18:22 utc | 30
Yes, the obvious things to do, as Russia slumps towards defeat, are to start nuclear bombing and to overthrow that traitor Putin.
Why on earth didn't I think of that before?
*wakes up*
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 12 2024 18:22 utc | 31
Micron's irritation are not the losses in Ukraine but Russia obtaining clout in France's colonial backyard being CFA controlled western Africa.
France doesn't have uranium in it's soil yet gets it abundantly from it's "former" colony Niger to name a factor. There's also Mali and Burkina Faso. If these 3 would prove successful with China's economic might that would prevent EU economic strangulation and Russia's military (through Wagner) support like with CAR more significant colonies like Ivory Coast and Senegal could pursue the same path. Micron's hope was to up the ante significantly so Russia would need to pour more resources into the Ukraine theater at the cost of theaters elsewhere.
Posted by: xor | Mar 12 2024 18:27 utc | 32
These last strokes are being done to force the hand of Putin before the Russan election on friday...ot let him in evidence if he does not act....
Russia should and can wait for after elections to solve this issue...
No hurries....as NATO and the barking chihuahuas want....
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Mar 12 2024 18:28 utc | 33
https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/15577
⚠️According to our information, the enemy is preparing an attack on the Black Sea coast of Russia, including a high probability of an attack on Novorossiysk.We urge you not to ignore alarm signals and under no circumstances to remove, much less publish, the work of air defenses.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 12 2024 18:31 utc | 34
"Dominance display by NATO -- we can invade you and you have to take it."
Yep, NATO countries' soil is unscathed. They use their Ukrainian proxies to test their weapons and terrorize Russians and damage Russia.
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 12 2024 18:32 utc | 35
@18 Australian drone? This is getting out of hand. I understand America, I might even understand France, but Australia isn’t even a proper country, it is a sheep ranch and glorified koala nursery. Next thing you know NZ will be sending their military drones, and then even the Cook Islands. Russia needs to launch full scale nuclear war like yesterday already! We can’t let the Australians think they’re better than us!
Posted by: Sheepbanned | Mar 12 2024 18:32 utc | 36
I've seen good poker players re-raising into an obviously losing hand because they cannot let go of the initial premise that their QQ or KK in itself ought to be a winning hand. In a comp a few years back I folded AA in the face of flushed board, but the cards had to be almost torn from my hands. Against every reality I couldn't face that AA was not going to win. They all thought that Ukraine was paired paint, but Russia was holding a flush the whole time. And now they can't fold when it is the only sane move. So let them go all-in. It's a valuable lesson.
Posted by: Patroklos | Mar 12 2024 18:33 utc | 37
I don't know. There is no way anyone in NATO seriously believed that Ukraine had the slightest chance of defeating Russia. Little ol me with only a strong interest in history and conflicts would in my mind not be on a par with 4 star generals, yet, from day one of this sham, the possibility of a NATO success never entered my head.
I believe NATO only decided to escalate in the Ukraine after the rejected Istanbul treaty in order to destroy the country of Eastern Ukraine because they no longer had any chance of exploiting the territory and left a big pile of shit for Russia to clean up.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Mar 12 2024 18:33 utc | 38
I'm reminded of "The Battle of Ap Bac", a chapter in "A Bright Shining Lie", Neil Sheehan's excellent history of the US in Vietnam. US reporters on the ground are shocked at the ARVN's incompetence. It's been a while since I've read it, but Sheehan presents this as the entire stupid effort in microcosm. Ap Bac was the template for the rest of the war.
Would be nice if the sociopaths engineering these idiotic wars read books like this. Or read books.
On second thought, if those sociopaths read books like these, they'd only use them to be more effective monsters. Maybe we're better off that the Victoria Nulands of the world are idiots.
Thank you b for this discussion thread. It points to a huge disconnect between reality on the ground and western leadership/media/decision-makers' understanding of the same.
There is nothing really new in the above for people who have followed the facts on the ground.So why were western media, and politicians like Macron, late in recognizing the real situation?
Good questions you raised above. Collectively, we at MoA since the middle of 2022 has recognized the one-sided dominance of the Russian military efforts, sans some occasional terrorist/sneak tactical successes of Ukrainian counters, we being just a gathering of informed folks without the firsthand ground intelligences as the western politicians/media do have. That must mean that the picture on the ground must be quite obvious to anyone who care to follow the events. For nearly two bloody years, how come these opinion manipulators of the West kept their heads in the sand and urge the western populace to double down on supporting Zelenskyy to result in more bloodshed and destructions upon the Ukrainian Nation??? What kind of dark souls are these western leadership?
My conclusion is that either the collective western political leadership are really, really stupid, more stupid than what most of us here at MoA have alluded them to be, or these are truly animals who would disregard deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and their livelihoods just for redemptions of their own ideology or financial benefits. For Zelenskyy and Biden, and BoJo (and of course those who report to them) I'm quite sure it's for their own personal interests. For idiots such as Von de Leyen, Scholz/Baerbock, and much of the collective former Eastern Block Soviet States, I kinda think it's a combination of both, which brings up another unformfortable question: "what kind of idiots are us that keepselecting idiots as those???
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 12 2024 18:40 utc | 41
It's personal
Macron needs to be seen "taking command". After tractors and other fresh cow deposits, his standing in the world stinks. Could he pretend to be the "New Napoleon" as the "Ghost of Mozgovoy | Mar 12 2024 18:00 utc | 17" says? Taking the helm from the "fascist Princess (Madame Genocide, Fond-of-Lyin')? He might want to but it is highly unlikely that he can.
I learnt last sunday that Macron and his financiers will now tax peoples personal vegetable gardens. True! Garden sheds are already taxed. France just does not have any money left, and there is no way to get more from the peasants to pay for wars and war materials, without causing a neo-revolt (just in time for the JO's in Paris in 135 days time..
The French have lost the advantages of the CFA in Africa, and arms sales are probably not paying as much due to "circumstances beyond their control", and losses in Ukraine.
**
Aside; I wonder if you have a collection of garden Gnomes and a few handy shovels, if you would be considered as an infiltration group for Russian armed forces?
***
As a bit more seriously, I noticed that a US Rivet Joint Spy plane was circling in front of Murmansk, and almost as far as Nova Zemlya, very definitely in what I would assume is a very Russian "area of interest". I presume (without proof) that they are setting up new drone targets in the more inaccessible parts of Russia. Industrial factories and Oil extraction/processing on the other side of the Urals. Far too close in time to the upcoming Elections, they could easily be used DURING the Russian elections with the idea that the Russians will not react. ie. In a similar fashion to the provocations during the Sochi Winter Games.
How can one be sure that the ostensibly leaked French generals' assessment is itself not bs designed to make Ukraine appear weaker than it actually is to lure Russian forces in depth?
Posted by: Ludo | Mar 12 2024 18:42 utc | 43
In all seriousness, if I were conspiracy minded, I might think that allowing some level of Russian civilian losses could be productive for the Kremlin, in order to convince segments of the Russian population of the need for a serious war effort, future mobilizations, etc. The more this reminds people of WW2, the more radicalized the Russian population will become and the more willing to make sacrifices for the war effort and the common good.
Posted by: Shadowban Z Xtreme | Mar 12 2024 18:47 utc | 44
The truly scary thing is how completely fucked up and useless the Maerican strategic braintrust must be to have led us to this juncture. They are doing everything possible to expedite the fall of their hegemony instead of preserving it. It's mind boggling, it suggests like in the scene from 'Edge of Tomorrow' that the generals are not capable of understanding this war, let alone fighting it. That or incompetence and nepotism and political loyalty over capability is so entrenched in Western culture that the lunatics have gotten charge of the asylum. I'm going with the latter.
In reading further, seems many of us feel this way. Western actions in prosecuting this war are incomprehensible.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 12 2024 18:48 utc | 45
I wonder if one of the motivating factors in Macron's recent belligerence was the return to France of a number of pissed-off troops evicted from Africa. That and his own loss of face. He couldn't hold N'Djamena, and he wants to march on Moscow?
Being an Aussie, I really didn't like the news that an Australian-made drone may have been used to strike into Belgorod. We are America's bitch, a condition only made tolerable by our distance. Taiwan will challenge that tolerance.
Posted by: Hal Duell | Mar 12 2024 18:49 utc | 46
Why is it starting to feel that with every passing Ukrainian/NATO defeat on the battlefield, and each leaked or 'hot mic' statement from Ukrainian/NATO leaders bemoaning the sorry state of the Ukro-NATO armed forces, and it becomes increasingly obvious Ukraine/NATO have lost, the Doom-N-Gloom posse gets more and more vocal?
There's gotta be some underlying psychological reason(s) for it.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 12 2024 18:51 utc | 47
As a bit more seriously, I noticed that a US Rivet Joint Spy plane was circling in front of Murmansk, and almost as far as Nova Zemlya, very definitely in what I would assume is a very Russian "area of interest". I presume (without proof) that they are setting up new drone targets in the more inaccessible parts of Russia. Industrial factories and Oil extraction/processing on the other side of the Urals.Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 12 2024 18:40 utc | 43
Plenty of other targets there too -- Olenya strategic bomber airbase, Northern Fleet, Sevmash in Severodvisnk, etc.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 12 2024 18:52 utc | 48
Posted by: Ludo | Mar 12 2024 18:42 utc | 44
If they were capable of such subtlety it would have been in evidence during the 'Ye Great Olde Ukrainian Spring-Summer Counter-Offensive (YGOUSSCO)' (contrary to false reports, it is Ye Great Olde, not Great Olde, those splitters)
Instead all and sundry announced for months like hyping the latest Hollywood trash it was going to be the most strongest and smartest and impressivest attack in the history of all warfare.
So, yeah.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 12 2024 18:53 utc | 49
@ Ludo | Mar 12 2024 18:42 utc | 44
How can one be sure that the ostensibly leaked French generals' assessment is itself not bs designed to make Ukraine appear weaker than it actually is to lure Russian forces in depth?
"Allowing yourself to be defeated and exhausted on the battlefield to appear weak" is a peculiar mirror of one of the Western media writing "RF fends off enemy attacks to appear like they can hold the line". RF MoD and General Staff do not plan operations based on French media reports.
Posted by: boneless | Mar 12 2024 18:57 utc | 50
They must be pretending to have found out. To many this outcome was glaringly obvious: that "Ukraine" with or without NATO (it was always with) stood no chance at all and this has been proven true even with Russia choosing to be perhaps as gentle as possible (which isn't necessarily only positive even when acknowledging that there will always be an inherent tradeoff and that the wider context is complicated) and things such as the natural learning curves, ordinary fumbling, some misfortune, changes cause by actual battle, and all that.
It becomes certain that they're all grifters with personal gain from being or pretending to be deliberately stupid, even if for nothing but continued employment.
Corruption in other words. Plain corruption. Blood money. War criminals.
I don't consider a single one of them a soldier.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 12 2024 19:04 utc | 51
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 12 2024 17:24 utc | 4
"However, the fact that Russia hasn't pushed Ukrainian soldiers back from this area, and that Ukraine makes bolder moves as time goes on"
That area looks like another meat grinder...The russians are probably amazed how the ukies keep throwing themselves into the grinder. So many people can't see that makes their job much easier.
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 12 2024 18:32 utc | 36
"Yep, NATO countries' soil is unscathed. They use their Ukrainian proxies to test their weapons and terrorize Russians and damage Russia."
For now...but the meatgrinders are slowly but surely approaching...hmm?
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 12 2024 18:09 utc | 20
"Has anyone answered the earlier question as to why FAB attacks west of Adviivka seem to have been suspended?"
FABs are for heavy fortifications. The MLRS does a better job saturating the relatively open areas west of the town.
Posted by: nathan in WA US | Mar 12 2024 19:07 utc | 52
Once again, the GUR and Zelensky’s headquarters sent DRG groups for a demonstrative strike on Russian border villages in order to try to reduce Putin’s rating before the elections.They even filmed material in Ukrainian villages in advance, so that they could later spread the idea that the tanks were already on their way to Belgorod and Kursk.
This stuffing had no effect this time. Only Ukrainian public pages were noisy. Nobody believed it. And people are just used to this.
We wrote that the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired at the border regions with all guns just to stir up the political situation in Russia before the elections.We also pointed out that the closer the elections in Russia are, the more certain tragedies will grow and occur.
https://t.me/legitimniy/17427
Posted by: Down South | Mar 12 2024 19:08 utc | 53
Posted by: vargas | Mar 12 2024 10:16 "What is the purpose of the last Ukro offensive (into Russia)?"
To get the Russians to attempt to "create a buffer zone" to protect Belgorod.
Why do they want this?
Because they have spent a couple of years preparing for such a Russian attack and they feel they will give the Russians a bloody nose.
But most importantly it will divert Russian attention away west of Avdeevka and give them time to build defenses where there are currently almost no defenses.
I'm not sure if the Russians are stupid enough to fall for this.
They should remember that there are currently almost no defenses west of Avdeevka and the Ukrainians are absolutely desperate.
Posted by: preposterous | Mar 12 2024 19:09 utc | 54
"A Ukrainian military victory now seems impossible"
And when exactly did it look like that they could ?
The 404 State is a corrupt train wreck that can't organize anything which would look like a functioning sovereign State, military included.
It was a pipe-dream from the START to think 404 boys were going to defeat the Russians.
But if you snort enough coke anything seems possible.
Posted by: Tom_12 | Mar 12 2024 19:12 utc | 55
Ukraine is having a bad day. Their pr excursions into Russia were crushed before they could even cross the border with significant losses of tank, bradleys and personnel. Just for a photo op.... Nevelskoe was also captured today, a significant loss fro Ukraine. IMHO Russian is expecting more desperate terror attempts as the election draws close. Wouldn't surprise me if all leave was canceled for the border patrol, air defense units, fighter pilots etc... These attacks are stupidly wasting valuable resources and are counter productive. While western politicians bray that Russia will attack us ad nauseam, Putin can say "they ARE attacking us" which galvanizes the Russian populace even more.
Posted by: ctiger | Mar 12 2024 19:13 utc | 56
Tom_Q_Collins that's because everyone knows many of those "leading" the west will use all of this as an argument for using nuclear weapons somehow just in the same way they have used it for enlarging military budgets, buying a lot more weapons, and talking about conscription.
Their "desperation" seems to be the plan.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Mar 12 2024 19:15 utc | 57
The US is coming in to save the day according to this current Reuters posting title.../s
US to send $300 million in new weapons package for Ukraine
Notice that the funds are in millions now and not billions....Where is Pope Frank's white flag?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 12 2024 19:15 utc | 58
I learnt last sunday that Macron and his financiers will now tax peoples personal vegetable gardens. True!
Posted by: Stonebird | Mar 12 2024 18:40 utc | 43
It's a lie.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 12 2024 19:24 utc | 59
Notice that the funds are in millions now and not billions....Where is Pope Frank's white flag?Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 12 2024 19:15 utc | 59
Notice that it includes full-capability ATACMS, quite possibly without restrictions on targets too.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 12 2024 19:25 utc | 60
The Esteemed b asks " why were western media, and politicians like Macron, late in recognizing the real situation?"
I think he had previously answered the question when he stated: ". . . people who had never heard of the Battle of Kursk convinced themselves that Russian soldiers in defensive positions would run away as soon as they would hear a tank rumbling towards them."
Western elites and most of the populace are ignorant of history, having been "educated" in schools that essentially teach propaganda (and are light on real science). Our "leaders" are drunk on hubris and rely on their own propaganda and bad intel to guide their decisions.
What else can result except cataclysmic disaster?
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 12 2024 19:26 utc | 61
If the issue were just the mainstream media and politicians, that would be one thing.
A far more insidious problem is papered over: the Gresham's dynamic occurring in Western intelligence and analysis. The same political agenda-reinforcement which Brennan executed in the US, is certainly at play in Europe.
Thus the normal reality injection which good intelligence and analysis performs, is gone and all that is left is solipsistic nonsense.
Note I am not saying there are no good intelligence operatives or analysts in the West.
What I am saying is that the politicization of the intel agencies, the military, etc etc is such that the judgement of "good" intel is not based on logic, or reason, or consistency, or experience but on political acceptability.
This is not GIGO but purely GO: garbage out.
Posted by: c1ue | Mar 12 2024 19:26 utc | 62
Any of you familiar with the Russian blogger Anatoly Karlin? He was a “scientific race” proponent who grew up in the UK and then went back to Moscow and became a Russian nationalist. After the SMO starting and Putin not following Anatoly’s expert war advice, Anatoly got fed up with Russia and flipped 180%, literally embracing the rainbow and moving back to the West, from which he now takes bitter potshots at the Russia. It reminds me of Shadowbanned’s persona except Anatoly is real and not a glowie working from home in Sheffield
Posted by: Shadowstar UKedition | Mar 12 2024 19:29 utc | 63
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 12 2024 17:55 utc | 14
If this attack follows the same pattern as the attack in April-May 2023, then the British through Budanov planned the attack. Then it was massively pumped up by the media in an effort to cause disruption to the election AND move attention away from other negative events.
Coming back to planet Earth, it cost 100 casualties, dozen AFVs and a bunch of MLRS/artillery systems. The Russians saw them coming, but obviously some drones and rockets will always get through, unfortunately. A handful of civilians paid the price for the attack.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 12 2024 19:30 utc | 64
"Great Olde Ukrainian Spring-Summer Counter-Offensive (GOUSSCO)"
OM F G
this is really good, thank goodness that in this beautiful asteroid and painful world every now and then there is a lucid text and on top of that spiced with good humor.
Posted by: Simon | Mar 12 2024 19:30 utc | 65
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 12 2024 18:40 utc | 42
I think you are absolutely spot on. Chilling. Frightening.
Posted by: Avtonom | Mar 12 2024 19:30 utc | 66
"Desperation is evident....and, when desperate, incapable pscyho people make a lot of errors...like entering a psychopatic storm....which well could be what we have before our eyes unleashing....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YnGhW4UEhc
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Mar 12 2024 18:21 utc | 29"
It is far from desperation. Western leaders exhibit the hubris that comes from when they never pay personally from their fuckups, and they have lost all fear of Russia.
Russia thinks that they are behaving patiently and as humanely as possible under the circumstances. Western leaders see this as contemptible weakness.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Mar 12 2024 19:35 utc | 67
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Mar 12 2024 18:09 "Has anyone answered the earlier question as to why FAB attacks west of Adviivka seem to have been suspended?"
There is one possibility that is suggested by the posts of shadowbanned;
That is that some Russian traitors high up in the Russian air force, shadowbanned would say Putin himself, have been activated to move the FAB bombing elsewhere, in order to help the Ukrainians establish some sort of defense west of Avdeevka.
Posted by: preposterοus | Mar 12 2024 19:36 utc | 68
"My conclusion is that either the collective western political leadership are really, really stupid, more stupid than what most of us here at MoA have alluded them to be, or these are truly animals who would disregard deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and their livelihoods just for redemptions of their own ideology or financial benefits."
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 12 2024 18:40 utc | 42"
I'll give you three guesses, and the first two don't count.
"For Zelenskyy and Biden, and BoJo (and of course those who report to them) I'm quite sure it's for their own personal interests. For idiots such as Von de Leyen, Scholz/Baerbock, and much of the collective former Eastern Block Soviet States, I kinda think it's a combination of both, which brings up another unformfortable question: "what kind of idiots are us that keepselecting idiots as those???"
Democracy, as practicsed today, is bascially a sham, a beard for the rulers to hide behind when they wish to make unpopular decisions and otherwise to be ignored as they see fit.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Mar 12 2024 19:37 utc | 69
I read that our concerned troll SB has given me another opportunity to explain why the demilitarization of NATO is part of the SMO.
The ATACMS is almost 40 year old technology and will be operated by non-Ukraine folks who will be quickly destroyed at the launch site, if used at $1.7 million a pop.
SB is a nuke war pearl clutcher that is either being paid well or pleasuring themselves in the corner over their nuke jerking
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 12 2024 19:38 utc | 70
Notice that the funds are in millions now and not billions....Where is Pope Frank's white flag?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 12 2024 19:15 utc | 59
Notice that it includes full-capability ATACMS, quite possibly without restrictions on targets too.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Mar 12 2024 19:25 utc | 61
And no pesky congressional rubberstamp needed. This is intended to send a message to germany to get with the program already. Master's patience is running out.
Posted by: Feral Finster | Mar 12 2024 19:38 utc | 71
@69 it definitely couldn’t have anything to do with Ukraine moving like all its mobile air defense to that sector in desperation and Russia taking advantage by temporarily switching to patriot hunting mode.
No, it’s traitors up and down the line. Only shadowbanned can be trusted
Posted by: ShadowRockHard | Mar 12 2024 19:40 utc | 72
As far as I know, when the AFU attempts assaults to penetrate the Russian defense line, or to operate behind it, they use their best troops. They have to be trained, in great shape, and also loyal, as deserting and surrendering is quite doable during such an operation.
So too has the equipment used been among their best, and those Bradley vehicles once lost are not replaced in a one to one fashion.
So when the geniuses ordering such attacks lose over 200 men and several Bradley vehicles, that is more than just a pin prick, it is a loss of life blood, even though it's a small amount.
The AFU is in its current mess because it's been getting consistently bled out of men and material for over two years now. "For want of a nail a shoe was lost ..." and the AFU has been getting deprived of all varieties of nails, perhaps most noticeably by the bar at the moment being their loss of air defense systems, radars, and having their electronics now vulnerable to counter measures. It took a slow and deliberate approach by Russia to achieve this current state, but it is here now, in spades, and the AFU is currently enduring an encompassing liability as a result.
God help those AFU soldiers who survive combat at the current front, only to be withdrawn to a new, crappily constructed, defense perimeter that lacks good air defenses and thus is subject to aerial bombardment, with a side order of relentless artillery attacks.
A big question in my mind is how well will the grifters back in Kiev supply those newly entrenched forces. I think it will be anyone's guess if the funding and supplies will be there to allocate, or will it have been stolen or disappeared, and if the impending doom of those poor AFU soldiers will be used by Zeldnskyy as a talking point to extort more billions of dollars out of Congress, and billions of Euros out of Europe.
I think those heavily beleaguered AFU troops will be touted as Europe's last line of defense against the Russian horde, and only by the West sending everything, including long range missiles, can the day be saved. "Lest Darkness Fall" will be the new mantra for the grifters looking to line their pockets, and those of the MIC.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Mar 12 2024 19:42 utc | 73
Well it was the French Charlemagne SS 33div that defended the bunker, Mrs. Zakarova reminded Macron. "will you do that again in Kiev"?
The Latvians and Estonians are ready. Maybe the Norwegian hero Stolteberg also can throw in a few Norwegians and Finns.
"By 30 April, the last defenders in the area of the bunker complex were mainly made up of Frenchmen of the SS Division Charlemagne, others being Waffen-SS men from the SS Division Leibstandarte, SS Division Nordland, Latvian SS and Spanish SS from the Blue Legion.[19][20][21]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/33rd_Waffen_Grenadier_Division_of_the_SS_Charlemagne
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Mar 12 2024 19:45 utc | 74
Ukrainians aren't stupid. They just sacrificed at least a company of trained men and vital machines for what?
Perhaps they are trying to get the Russians to pull forces out of the Donbas
Usually in those types of operations you want an element of surprise yet there was Budanov just the other day announcing his plans just like a supervillian.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 12 2024 17:55 utc | 14
They do that since Maidan. Now it only spread but the lack of logic remains. To kill first, a 30sec video for bbc-cnn, that's all. The other idea is wrong, 7 tanks won't force the 5 soldiers from Donbass to run to Belgorod, when inside Russia there is a million of them doing absolutely nothing. Budanov actor only talked about what cia revealed today, that the next package will include long range missiles. Which they will shoot at anything they find. Btw, I read Australian cardboard drones hit an admin. building. Where is a little rain when you need it...
Posted by: rk | Mar 12 2024 19:57 utc | 75
So why were western media, and politicians like Macron, late in recognizing the real situation?
They don't understand modern money and actually believed the sanctions would work. I was talking to an ex US state department employer who helped with putting the sanction package together. I explained to him why they didn't work. It took me 15 mins on Twitter and showed him the balance sheets and government accounts.
He was so embarrassed he ran off. The guy who posted the sanctions package his buddy a chief economist from the European commission removed the package from Twitter that only an hour before he had posted it with such a fanfare.
I got banned soon after that.
A month later the ex US state department guy who I had shown why the sanctions wouldn't work, actually claimed he worked out himself why the sanctions hadn't worked as if he knew why the didn't work all along. When the truth was he didn't have a clue and thought the package posted by his buddy in the European commission with such a fanfare would work.
I'll try and find it and give you the names of the people I am on about. They'll still be on Twitter one was a European chief economist who worked for the European comission.
They knew fine well militarily they would never win. They really did believe the sanctions would work.
This is what I showed him
https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/
It was really simple, the reason they wouldn't work was friendly countries to Russia, their banks in friendly countries would off set the risk and make an absolute fortune doing so. Free from the sanctions.
He recognised their mistake within 15 mins and was absolutely mortified the best so called economists in Europe and the US state department has missed it. He had missed it and helped with the package.
Also acted as if Russia used the Euro and that Russian exports would fund the Russian treasury. Absolute bonkers.
They are not as clever as they think they are and they get paid a fortune for not only being wrong but for being infected by GROUPTHINK.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Mar 12 2024 19:59 utc | 76
Posted by: Michael A | Mar 12 2024 17:36 utc | 6
Macron's jewish owners fear they're are going to lose all the Ukrainian lands (and slaves) that were supposed to belong to them through blackrock, or through them being chosen by satan or something. It's in the middle-eastern terrorist pamphlets they wrote a few thousand years ago. So of course the microp**** is going to be angry.
Well at least somebody finally understand that it's not the US is controlling Israel.
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/03/12/the-debate-over-israel-as-us-aircraft-carrier/
The truth finds it way out- there is ligth in the tunnel, not us, but Israel, but we have a few steps left up the hierarcy, until we see the real hidden masters!
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Mar 12 2024 20:05 utc | 77
Posted by: Shadowstar UKedition | Mar 12 2024 19:29 utc | 64
I remember following Karlin in 2018. His "scientific racism" made me question if Russian society at any point in its history (particularly the Tsarist era) had the same negative stigma towards interracial marriage that the US did until the mid-20th century. In one post he considers the Czech Republic and Slovakia "based" following a EU-wide poll where most responders in those two countries were said to oppose interracial relationships (or something like that) and praises the Czechs for their secularism.
Speaking of the US, another one of Karlin's Unz posts entertained the idea, submitted by an American Exceptionalist reader, of the US annexing Canada on the grounds that the latter isn't a "real" nation, one rationale being so that Canadians would no longer have to use "stupid" Canadian dollars. Karlin did not object to American Exceptionalism and would sometimes even dwell on it.
But I digress, because this thread isn't about him - don't wanna go OT.
Posted by: joey_n | Mar 12 2024 20:08 utc | 78
psychohistorian | Mar 12 2024 19:38 utc | 71--
Hey ol' buddy! I suggest reading this several week-old column by Tom Luongo about the real reason for all the war hype, "Why War Bonds Are Returning in Europe". Little in the way of discussion of this aspect of what's happening in the Eurozone has occurred here despite its degree of importance. I seem to recall another discussion of this issue but haven't been able to dig it up. Here's the meat:
This plan for war bonds was shepherded by the usual suspects for EU militarization, French President Emmanuel Macron and EU President Charles Michel. And I want to stress here that nothing about this project is economic. It is purely political. They will expend whatever political capital they must to force this outcome on the people of Europe.To folks like Macron, Michel, Ursula Von der Leyen and their bosses, European bourgeoisie and proletariats alike are just tax cattle. No wonder they are so against them eating beef.
So, let’s connect another couple of dots. Because now it should be obvious that this is why they threatened Hungary’s Viktor Orban with economic devastation for holding up their $50 billion aid package for Ukraine.
They need to keep Ukraine going to justify now spending another $100+ billion to launder into failing French and German banks sitting on massive losses from all the debt they bought during the NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) period.
This is just the beginning of their plans for transferring sovereignty out of the hands of the member states and handing it to Brussels. But to sell this to global investors they have to prove to the world they have all the wayward voices under control.
Bloomberg ran this article behind a paywall headlining:
"Bond investors are urging squabbling European Union leaders to get their act together on defense spending and make the bloc’s trillion-euro bond program permanent."
Now why would Bloomberg help the EU, or rather its Neoliberal Parasite kin? To further deepen the EU's financialized colonization and milking taxpayers as Luongo suggests. That's why the contradictions on the surface between Macron and the French Defense Ministry--the latter don't know about the political plans surrounding the War Bonds, which are presumably a closely held secret despite the ability to discern their purpose.
And if Ukraine is finished, then why the need for War Bonds? Enter the hype about Putin going to the Channel.
… FABs are for heavy fortifications. The MLRS does a better job saturating the relatively open areas west of the town.
Posted by: nathan in WA US | Mar 12 2024 19:07 utc | 53
Well, there are videos of FAB-250 glide bombs being used by the handful on trench lines and those UMPC cluster bombs do a great job of that and are cheaper than the 300mm caliber rockets but the rockets can respond quickly so you might be right. I think @fighter_bomber had a recent report that glide bomb delivery aircraft were regularly having to run a gauntlet of missiles fired at them with at least some shoot-downs, so that might also be a factor.
The UMPK setup has a similar flight envelope to JDAM-ER, the typical high altitude drop is vulnerable to S-300 and Patriot.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 12 2024 20:09 utc | 80
The whole conversation was on another economists Twitter feed a German MMT economist called Dirk Ehnts.
About a year and half ago. I'll try and find it. They bet the Whole house on the sanctions working. They just needed the Ukrainian army to hold out until the sanctions worked. It was quite extraordinary how little they understood the different monetary systems. One of them that Dirk was trying to explain to him that he was wrong, was the main economist in Europe who put the sanction package together.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Mar 12 2024 20:12 utc | 81
Posted by: aleksandar | Mar 12 2024 17:37 utc | 7
This assessment is not new among French General Staff Officers.
Even in 2022 they acknowledged that Ukraine cannot win this war.
But they were silenced and even good retired générals were ignored by MSM.
So why this report now ?
It's all about money,
1. L. Graham is proposing to lend the Ukraine the 61bill, and they can pay back if they can!
2. David Cameron is proposing to lend Ukraine the russian 300bill, guarateed by the West/EU. Saying something like this: We here in the Parliment, in the City of London
3. Macron has been giving march order by his employer to establish a European Army, and get the EU to issue War- Bonds. 500 Bill.
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Mar 12 2024 20:13 utc | 82
It became clear to me during lunch what bothers me about the thread spamming that shadowbanned does here.
I have been commenting here for over a decade and the majority of the patrons of this bar comment in agreement with the China/Russia axis approach against the God Of Mammon cult Might-Makes-Right bullies.
shadowbanned is a Might-Makes-Right bully and their overwhelming spamming of these threads skews the tenor balance of the comments by the MoA barflies toward Might-Makes-Right bullies and I resent that.
It is one thing to come here as others have done over the years and push this "ism" or that to extreme but the Might-Makes-Right bully shit coming from shadowbanned is a disservice to the history of us MoA old timers if nothing else.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 12 2024 20:15 utc | 83
Its funny. France hasn't finished losing in Africa and Macron and his owners covet Ukraine.
Posted by: too scents | Mar 12 2024 20:20 utc | 84
So why were western media, and politicians like Macron, late in recognizing the real situation?
Because it was never about "the war". The goal was SANCTIONS, and the Former West needed an excuse to get them. Supposedly SANCTIONS would collapse the Russian government, and then Browder could go back in with his thieving operations (worth billions), and RF's would be withdrawn from Syria. The EU would suffer a short term set back, but after a "friendly" government was installed in Moscow, the oil and gas would be turned back on. And the icing on the cake were the huge kick backs from the "aid". This was bigger than the "Oil for Food" Iraq scandal the UN ran.
Sanctions have failed, and now you have an oh sh*t moment in the Former West. What you are seeing is frustration.
Posted by: JackG | Mar 12 2024 20:21 utc | 85
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 12 2024 19:38 utc | 71
“why the demilitarization of NATO is part of the SMO.”
But Russia certainly will be done with the military portion quickly, eh?
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Mar 12 2024 20:23 utc | 86
Puppets by Leonard Cohen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzD7_94HiLs
"Not all Animals (pigs) are equal"- by ChiefPig Napoleon
Sorry for all my posting; but my blood is boiling
Slava Lira/Gaza
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Mar 12 2024 20:29 utc | 87
64 - I remember a photo on the Unz site of Karlin posing with a two-handed sword, suggesting he is quite an eccentric fellow. "They can take our off-centre blog posts but they can never take our freedom!"
Posted by: Waldorf | Mar 12 2024 20:29 utc | 88
as Luongo suggests.
Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 12 2024 20:08 utc | 80
Nope, a complete failure to understand the monetary system.
I've even shown you Karlof1
Here:
https://www.crisesnotes.com/no-the-eurosystem-of-central-banks/
Get on the phone or email Michael Hudson and he will agree with me. Looks like you have some learning to do.
The ECB doesn't need tax to pay the coupon on the bonds - Period.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Mar 12 2024 20:29 utc | 89
Patricia Marins
@pati_marins64
4h
The western must learn the value of the Cheap innovations.
The new Russian glide bombs have become equivalent to large long-range lancets, carrying 150kg of TNT.
Target designation is adjusted by Orlan UAV operatorsa and Unlike winged glide bombs, ammunition equipped with the UMPB module can be launched from a distance of 150-200 km.
Photos of the wreckage of new planning modules for aerial bombs were found in Ukraine. The inscription UMPB is visible on them, though the marking was intended to be UMPC (Unified Planning and Correction Module). Just as info, the letter “B” stands for loitering.
Recently, the Russians have increased the mass production of FAB and UMPC, with several attacks occurring daily.
With a 200km range, these bombs are launched by aircraft outside the range of any Western air defense system.
Older models like the Su-25 and even the Yak-130 can also be used for launching.
While Russia ramps up production, the reality on the Ukrainian side remains the opposite.
Of the 31 Abrams tanks, 4 are visually confirmed as out of combat, and considering that perhaps 30% of the equipment is lost without visual confirmation, this number could be even higher. It's not an exaggeration to say that around 15%-20% of the Abrams tanks are out of combat in few weeks;
an even worse situation was reported for the Challenger 2, of which, from 14, only 7 remain operational: 2 were destroyed by Russians and 5 are inoperable due to technical issues, with no spare parts available for repairs.
Regarding the Leopard 2A4/6s, of the 75 delivered, 30 are visually confirmed as out of combat, and this number could exceed 40 if we consider possible losses not visually confirmed.
Sweden delivered 10 Stridsvagn 122s, and 6 were visually confirmed as out of combat.
An even worse situation has occurred with Western artillery, with few systems remaining ready for combat.
About the IFvs, Of the 186 Bradleys delivered, around 70 are visually out of combat. I'd estimate that around 100 are out of combat, as I always consider an additional 30%.
In summary, it's likely that Ukraine is left with fewer than 700 operational tanks and IFVs in total at this stage of the war.
If my numbers are correct, this would be equivalent to less than 15-18% of the Russian tanks and IFVs actually deployed in Ukraine.
With this level of disadvantage, how is Ukraine fighting?
Essentially with infantry and loitering drones, suported by a dose of heroism, would be the probable answer.
Another interesting fact was that Patriot launchers were destroyed near the front. This proves that Ukraine doesn't have any mobile air defense and had to move the Patriots hundreds of kilometers. This is insane and a good picture of the actual chaos.
As I've been reporting for several months, the situation of the Ukrainian forces is catastrophic, now almost a year without receiving weapons.
Posted by: MD | Mar 12 2024 20:31 utc | 90
The ECB doesn't need tax to pay the coupon on the bonds - Period.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Mar 12 2024 20:29 utc | 90
---
Did it hurt when you suffered brain damage?
Posted by: too scents | Mar 12 2024 20:34 utc | 91
France doesn't have uranium in it's soil yet gets it abundantly from it's "former" colony Niger to name a factor.
Posted by: xor | Mar 12 2024 18:27 utc | 33
Not so fast: France has uranium mines on its soil - and some Oil and gas too - but it is less expensive to extract it from Niger since they almost don't pay the manpower down there ... and with money of their own print.
"French Senate:
The key information
AUTHOR OF THE QUESTION
VIDAL Marcel
TYPE OF QUESTION
Written question
MINISTER INTERVIEWED
recovery
Prospects for the exploitation of the Cogema mine located in Bosc (Hérault)
WRITTEN QUESTION
Written question n°15004 - 9th legislature
DATE(S) OF PUBLICATION
Question published on 04/25/1991
Answer published on 10/17/1991
Question from Mr. VIDAL Marcel (Hérault - SOC) published on 04/25/1991
Mr Marcel Vidal draws the attention of the Minister of Industry and spatial planning to the prospects for the exploitation of the Cogema mine located in Bosc. The significant reserves of uranium discovered in this mine augur important extraction possibilities likely to maintain socio-economic activity in a geographical sector in crisis. He asks her what policy he plans to pursue on this mining site.
Published in the OJ Senate of 04/25/1991 - page 846
Ministry response: Industry published on 10/17/1991
Answer. - The continuous stagnation of the uranium market is leading all the producing countries to overproduction; we can even speak, in the face of a very saturated market, of a global crisis whose consequences are the permanent decline in prices and the mothballing of farms in the main producing countries. In France, Cogema is no exception to this situation. The social plan that the latter has implemented for the period 1990-1991 aims to achieve productivity gains while maintaining production at a level compatible with national needs. As regards the operation of Lodève, this plan provided for a reduction of twenty jobs at the end of 1990 and forty at the end of 1991 out of a workforce of four hundred and twenty people on March 15, 1990; the assessment of the impact of this plan will be presented in February 1992 to the supervisory authorities, local authorities and social partners. However, Cogema maintains a real interest in the Hérault mining site since, as an extension of the current Lodevois concession, it has applied for and obtained the exclusive uranium research permit from Senegra and will very soon be awarded the Lergue research permit contiguous to the previous one and which covers the entire existing concession. Within these two mining titles, it will be able to carry out research and evacuation work on the extensions of the deposit being exploited within the limits of the concession, and thus renew, or even develop, the exploitable reserves.
Published in the OJ Senate of 10/17/1991 - page 2281"
Oddly enough the mine was closed for ever :
"Home Base Questions 2000
Conversion of the Cogema mining site in Lodève
WRITTEN QUESTION
Written question n°25080 - 11th legislature
The key information
AUTHOR OF THE QUESTION
VIDAL Marcel
TYPE OF QUESTION
Written question
MINISTER INTERVIEWED
recovery
QUESTION REASSIGNED TO
recovery
DATE(S) OF PUBLICATION
Question published on 05/11/2000
Answer published on 08/02/2001
Question from Mr. VIDAL Marcel (Hérault - SOC) published on 05/11/2000
Mr. Marcel Vidal draws the attention of the Prime Minister to the difficulty, for the elected representatives of the Hérault center, of knowing the ministry mainly ensuring the follow-up of the reconversion of the Cogema mining site in Lodève, given the numerous ministries concerned by such a project, in particular since the creation of an automobile stadium is envisaged. Indeed, the following are called upon to intervene on the conversion of a uranium mining site into a car circuit: the services of the Ministry of the environment under the ecological impact of such an activity, the services of the ministry of youth and sports taking into account, on the one hand, the creation of a mechanical stadium and, on the other hand, the actions in favor of young people envisaged on this equipment and those of the Ministry of employment and solidarity, and in particular the State Secretariat for health and the disabled, who will have to determine the risks to human health of continuing an activity on an old uranium mine. But this conversion also falls within the competence of the Minister of equipment and transport, with regard to a motor circuit, those of the Minister of agriculture and fisheries due, on the one hand, to the questioning of the creation of a technical landfill center on the Cogema site, and, on the other hand, the difficulties in terms of water management that such a conversion would entail, and, finally, those of the State Secretariat for Industry, with regard to the conversion of an industrial site. Consequently, he asks her to kindly indicate to him the ministry mainly in charge of this conversion.
Published in the OJ Senate of 11/05/2000 - page 1642
Transmitted to the Ministry: Spatial planning"
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Mar 12 2024 20:35 utc | 92
joey_n | Mar 12 2024 20:08 utc | 79--
Russia's internal problem in that regard relates to migrant workers who fail to assimilate, specifically to respect Russian values, which being traditional are actually very easy to adopt. Russia's demographic crisis is why migrant workers are sorely needed. Russia could easily absorb and employ 20 million people today given the amount of planned development and industrial expansion happening. In the discussions of this issue I've read, no particular national group's been mentioned, which IMO is odd. Russia as most know has a very large and active Muslim population that's well integrated and good relations with its Islamic neighbors from where many migrants come from. On intermarriage, ethnicity doesn't appear to be an issue, and many Africans, Arabs, and Latin American "Creoles" are very happy to remain in Russia after their studies to become permanent citizens. Asiatic Russians are Russians--I've never come across anyone described by Russian media as a hyphenated Russian, unlike here within the Outlaw US Empire. IMO, the legacy of the Soviet period remains very strong and equality of all continues to be stressed.
Racists/exceptionalists can occur in any society regardless their socialization/enculturation; they are deviants. You'll have noted Putin's government hasn't started hurling ethnic-based epithets at Ukrainians or other nationals in an effort to dehumanize them. Actually, Russian strategy is the opposite--kill them with kindness.
@Shadowstar UKedition | Mar 12 2024 19:29 utc | 64
Damn, I used to like Anatoly, but always considered him a bit weird because he liked using a picture of himself wielding too long a sword while wearing socks and sandals. If one is going to swing such a long sword then at least proper, sturdy footwear should be worn. No surprise he went rainbow-ish.
Posted by: gT | Mar 12 2024 20:38 utc | 94
Do I really see an Australian clone of SB asking for nukes and with the dubious nickname of sheepbanned?
Whet's next?
Shitbanned...maybe?
Posted by: Mario | Mar 12 2024 20:41 utc | 95
Where is Pope Frank's white flag?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 12 2024 19:15 utc | 59
Here you can see what has become of the West. In the past, the liberal press had to assert itself against the prohibitions and lies of the church, today the Pope tells the truth and the liberal lying media of the plutocrats foam at the mouth. A transitional state - a lot will change soon.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Mar 12 2024 20:42 utc | 96
This thread is a perfect example of a whole theory based on a wrong hypothesis.
The hypothesis can be summarized as follows : "The collective West wants Ukraine to win.".
Now please get closer and read the following attentively :
FUKUS does not give a shit about Ukraine winning..
Wait a minute. Where did I put my megaphone... Ah ! There it is ! One more time :
FUKUS DOES NOT GIVE A SHIT ABOUT UKRAINE WINNING.
How so you may exclaim ? Could it be (gasp) that what Biden or Macron utter in public may not perfectly reflect their intention ? Sadly, yes. I will tell you what FUKUS' goals are :
1. Weakening Russia
2. Weakening Russia
3. Weakening Russia.
Let's now try viewing things from this angle and ask yourselves what was until now the cost-benefit ratio for the USA of this whole adventure. But let's use some fictitious countries instead. I will tell you a story :
Once upon a time, country A hated country B very, very much. Country B actually represented a rather large, immovable object, which was not very pliable. A had managed to subjugate and vassalized a whole lot of other countries (let's call that collective lot C). However A was not quite satisfied with C which still retained the ability to somehwat be independent, or at least make choices independently of A. For instance, some countries in C insisted on choosing their supply sources. Others had the gall to maintain an indigenous defense industry.
country A then formulated a clever plan : find some 3rd shithole full of impressionable and relatively stupid peasants, indoctrinate them, and transform them into a battering ram against country B. Such a country was relatively easy to find. A then pumped some billions of dollars - a relatively trivial amount - to create said indoctrination, with fairly good success.
After quite some time, A achieved at least a major result. B, faced with the ever-creeping militarization of the shithole, finally reacted and attacked. That was when A pounced. It simply unloaded its stock, and coerced its vassals in C to do the same.
After some time, A started to slowly pivot away and left C holding the bag. The net effect, two years after country B finally got triggered, was an absolute net positive for country A :
- country B incurred some serious losses : around 50k to 100k dead, with probably same amount of wounded. Several strategic assets were lost : surveillance planes, flagships.. A sea (let's call it Grey Sea) which was previously considered to be B's lake, was successfully contested and B's fleet had to tuck tail and flee into ports at the far end of the Grey Sea.
But that was not all : in an absolutely genius stroke, the C vassals started to unload all their stocks into Ukraine, while A slowly disengaged. The result : A's military complex went gangbusters. You see, all those C countries still had lots of weapons built by B. They sent it all into a blackhole, and to replace all of that there was only one solution : why, buy it from A instead ! So it happened that all the money A officially spent into the conflict was more or less recouped by A's military complex new contracts.
But not only that : A managed to completely sever C's other energy sources, vassalizing C even more.
Now the 1000$ (or €) question : do you really think A made a bad deal ? It managed to
- weaken and fix B seriously
- Vassalize completely C
- Create a captive market for its energy and weapons
At what cost ? Only some fiat money, which A can print in limitless supply ; oh, and some tens of thousands of hapless shithole peasants, which A never gave a fuck about.
Do you seriously think A is a loser here ? Me thinks they played their cards superbly, killing almost three birds with one stroke.
Does that mean I love country A ? That I want them to win ? No. I just state things as they are. And if you actually tried to detach yourself emotionally and analyze the situation rationally, you would come to the same conclusion. Nothing personal, just cold geopolitical calculus.
Posted by: Micron | Mar 12 2024 20:42 utc | 97
My conclusion is that either the collective western political leadership are really, really stupid, [...], or these are truly animals who would disregard deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and their livelihoods just for redemptions of their own ideology or financial benefits.
[...] which brings up another unformfortable question: "what kind of idiots are us that keepselecting idiots as those???
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Mar 12 2024 18:40 utc | 42
Yes, really stupid and greedy, stupid because they are greedy, and greedy because they are stupid.
Please, do not be so naive as to think that "we" live in democracies. Macron was selected and pushed like a any article "they" want to sell. In that case, "they" = Rotschild and people like Attali and Minc. Once elected they do like they want. The masses are also brainwashed.
Posted by: Naive | Mar 12 2024 20:43 utc | 98
My understanding of why sanctions failed is that Russia quickly redirected flows to China, India and the UAE. These friendly countries would then often resell to the West. It’s kind of like a game of musical chairs. The chairs are the natural resources necessary for the modern economy. The people switching chairs are the different countries buying resources. I think the Western idea was the sudden shock of sanctions would collapse the Russian financial system before trade could be redirected - almost overnight. The Russian CB gets a lot of flack from pro-Z but it performed flawlessly and stabilized the situation.
More generally, the Russian business/professional/engineering class showed itself pretty capable. They were able to keep airbus and Boeing planes flying, oil wells working, quickly rounded up a new oil tanker fleet, created Russian insurance markets for it. Westerners got high on their own supply of Russia gas station masquerading as a country, and you know it might have been in 2002, but in 2022-23 they were dealing with a very capable polity.
Posted by: ShadowMaster Flex | Mar 12 2024 20:43 utc | 99
So why were western media, and politicians like Macron, late in recognizing the real situation?
___________________________________
That is easy, they were not aware of what was really going on on the ground, they have been fed a steady diet of Ukrainian propaganda, have no sense of history, and they remember the dramatic advances in late 2022 where the Russians seemed to collapse and run away. In retrospect, it is obvious they were falling back into positions to fight a war of attrition on ground of their own choosing, but at the time you could not blame someone for thinking that there was something terribly wrong with the Russians military, e.g., they were incompetent and of poor morale.
Posted by: tommylotto | Mar 12 2024 20:46 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
I read the French documents. They detail an even worse situation than the English translation.
Posted by: Liberator | Mar 12 2024 17:14 utc | 1