Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 08, 2024

Ukraine SitRep: Finally A Wonder-Weapon That Does What It Promised To Do

The battle of Avdeevka is about to be finished.

The city of Avdeevka, (not to be confused with the small town of Andreevka near Bakhmut), is situated immediately north-west of Donetsk city. It has been used for years as a Ukrainian fortress well positioned for artillery attacks on Donetsk. The whole city, and especially the coke and chemical plant in its northern sector, was well prepared to defend against Russian attacks.

But despite all attempts to hold on to it the Ukrainian garrison within the city is about to be encircled and fall.


Source: Live UA Map - bigger

The Russian attacks are coming from multiple directions and are more progressed than the Ukraine friendly map above is showing. The biggest danger to the Ukrainians is the Russian move in the north west which threatens to cut the city off from its supply line through the northern coal and chemical plant.

The Russian victory in this battle was accomplished with the help of one type of weapon created during the current war in Ukraine.

In the early 1990s the U.S. developed a strap on kit for unguided bombs that turned dumb weapons into precise ammunition.

The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) is ...

... a guidance kit that converts unguided bombs, or "dumb bombs", into all-weather precision-guided munitions. JDAM-equipped bombs are guided by an integrated inertial guidance system coupled to a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, giving them a published range of up to 15 nautical miles (28 km). JDAM-equipped bombs range from 500 to 2,000 pounds (230 to 910 kg).[5] The JDAM's guidance system was jointly developed by the United States Air Force and United States Navy, hence the "joint" in JDAM.
...
The JDAM is not a stand-alone weapon; rather it is a "bolt-on" guidance package that converts unguided gravity bombs into precision-guided munitions (PGMs). The key components of the system are a tail section with aerodynamic control surfaces, a (body) strake kit, and a combined inertial guidance system and GPS guidance control unit.

The JDAM kit, of which more than 500,000 were produced, allowed for the use of large piles of cold-war era bombs with previously unknown precision.

After the 2022 start of the war in Ukraine Russia engaged in a program to develop an equivalent to the JDAM kit. The program was finished by the end of 2023. The Russian version can be strapped onto a 500kg or a 1,500 kilogram dumb bomb extending their range by attaching wings, guidance kit and control surfaces to already existing dumb bombs.

Prototype of a FAB 500 with (folded) wings and guidance kit

bigger

After being programmed with target coordinates the bomb gets dropped, turns 180 degree around its length axis and unfolds its wings. The wings enable the bomb to fly some 50 miles before hitting the ground. This allows the planes dropping these bombs to stay outside of the enemy's air defense envelope.

The guidance kits are cheap and can easily be mass produced.

Yesterday some 65 FAB500 and FAB1500 were used against targets in Avdeevka.

The use of these bombs, which carry 300 kilogram and more of explosives, near one's own troops requires careful planing and observation. Observers on the ground have to make sure that their own troops are outside of the deadly circle of these bombs and that the coordinates of targets are submitted in a disciplined but secure and timely manner. Pilots have to make sure that the received coordinates are programmed into the bombs and that their release is done at the right attitude and positions.

This kill chain requires intensive training and disciplined soldiers. Yesterday's attacks demonstrate that the Russian army and air-forces have mastered this discipline.

Any detected resistance or position of Ukrainian troops was visited by a precise FAB attack within just a few minutes.

There is no defense against these weapons. It is no wonder then that any resistance against the Russian onslaught is breaking down. Russian troops can proceed through bombed out Ukrainian positions without taking losses.

Previous reports have talked about a Russian superiority in artillery by a factor of 5 or higher. But consider that a 155mm artillery round has a weight of some 50 kilogram, 60% of which are explosives. One FAB carries 10 to 30 times the explosive equivalent of one artillery round.

The Ukrainian army has nothing comparable in its arsenals.

The introduction of mass FAB500 strikes onto the Ukrainian battle field have given the Russian forces a new qualitative advantage that will change the course of the war (though not its outcome). The U.S. political and military specialists who still believe that attrition is a viable strategy for the Ukrainian army are clearly way off the path of reality.

On February 1 the German broadsheet Bild reported of the conflict in the Ukrainian leadership:

The Bild publication writes that Zaluzhny wanted to withdraw troops from Avdiivka a few weeks ago, but Zelensky refused him this and on December 30 he personally went to the city to the front line to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters.

So all the coffins that arrived from near Avdeevka to Ukraine since December 30 are solely on the conscience of Zelensky and his passion for narcissism.

Zelenski had asked Zaluzny to resign which the General rejected. The Ukrainian president has since made clear that he wants to fire the more popular general but is still looking for the right time and reason to do so.

The loss of Avdeevka may give him a marketable excuse to finally do that even when it is clear that it was Zelenski's narcissism, and not Zaluzny's advice, that has caused high Ukraine losses while inevitably losing a not holdable position.

Posted by b on February 8, 2024 at 12:38 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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At least the US finally came up with a wonder weapon in the Ukraine war. Too bad it ended up on the wrong side.

Posted by: Chicago Bob | Feb 8 2024 12:52 utc | 1

Russia knows well when to hit and hard. I am waiting anxiously for the day that happens in Kiev.

Posted by: AI | Feb 8 2024 12:52 utc | 2

I wonder: could it be that the purpose of the continuous use of FABs across the Dniepr in Kherson over the last several months was to hone and train this kill chain?

Posted by: Palm & Needle | Feb 8 2024 12:59 utc | 3

Why is the bomb painted in a very American style?

Posted by: CIROC | Feb 8 2024 13:06 utc | 4


" a new qualitative advantage that will change the course of the war " Ok, so will Russia take that advantage to Syria, Iran, make it available to the Red sea and Gaza resistance or will Russia use the weapon to help Israel finish off Gaza? Russia already has the advantage in Ukraine?

likely this weapon will not see action outside of the SMO.

Posted by: snake | Feb 8 2024 13:12 utc | 5

Is Zaluzny a skilled and effective military leader? Is he doing well given his current context?

Posted by: Afro | Feb 8 2024 13:12 utc | 6

Zelenski himself is a wonder weapon - a loose cannon that shoots friendly fire
and plays the piano.

Posted by: librul | Feb 8 2024 13:13 utc | 7


The Ukrainian army has nothing comparable in its arsenals.

Of course, even if they did, it would require an airforce to deliver which they do not have either.

Which means that unless the US plays the F-16 card right now and supplies UKraine with JDAMs, Ukranistan is "SoL" ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 8 2024 13:14 utc | 8

I am relieved to see that the number of casualties might eventually decrease with the use of more decisive weapons by Russia. Some countries in West Asia may also find this kit useful to get rid of unwelcome guests.

Posted by: Richard L | Feb 8 2024 13:18 utc | 9

Some countries in West Asia may also find this kit useful to get rid of unwelcome guests.

Posted by: Richard L | Feb 8 2024 13:18 utc | 9

They'd need an airforce first as well as effective A2/AD networks. Unfortunately, only Izzrael could make immediate use of these weapons ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 8 2024 13:22 utc | 10

Is Zaluzny a skilled and effective military leader? Is he doing well given his current context?

Posted by: Afro | Feb 8 2024 13:12 utc | 6

Given the tools he has to work with, given the handicapped and corrupt leadership he has to work under and given the moronic back-seat drivers from NATO/USA he has to deal with, I would say he is certainly "skilled".

I doubt Ukrainistan would still be fighting and killing Russian soldiers if Zaluzny had not been around.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 8 2024 13:30 utc | 11

Massive Russian strap-ons.. the headlines write themselves.

I guess what we have here is, availability plus an order of magnitude (or more) less cost and maybe more destructive power than most missiles that are in use. That means that less urgent targets can get some attention and easily repaired things like linear targets can get more frequent repeat visits.

Posted by: Billb | Feb 8 2024 13:35 utc | 12

About technology. Yesterday the US killed an Iraqi militia leader and two others. They were traveling in a car on a Bagdad street. The weapon used was a Hellfire missile dropped from a drone. The drone we can assume was flying at high altitude to avoid being shot down by a personal weapon. We’ve seen this before. Moving car, 9:30 pm. The precision is incredible. The other aspect is intelligence. They had to know who was traveling when. In a hostile environment.

Does Russia have an equivalent technology?

Posted by: RB | Feb 8 2024 13:35 utc | 13

I know that these JDAM kits were designed to upgrade dumb bombs but I wonder how the cost compares between a dumb bomb + JDAM kit vs a PGM glide bomb? Is it cheaper to continue making dumb bombs and JDAM kits or is that just a means of using up your old arsenal.

(BTW I may take a peak at youtube 'combat veteran reacts' channel to see what spin he's using today. Everyday he posts along the lines of 'Russia has another devastating loss')

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Feb 8 2024 13:43 utc | 14

Why is the bomb painted in a very American style?

Posted by: CIROC | Feb 8 2024 13:06 utc | 4

Better yet why did Americans paint their bombs Russian style in WW2? Watch videos of Russians fighting on the east front of WW2 ... notice how they were painting slogans and pictures on their tanks and bombs before the USA even entered the war.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 8 2024 13:44 utc | 15

About technology. Yesterday the US killed an Iraqi militia leader and two others. They were traveling in a car on a Bagdad street. The weapon used was a Hellfire missile dropped from a drone. The drone we can assume was flying at high altitude to avoid being shot down by a personal weapon. We’ve seen this before. Moving car, 9:30 pm. The precision is incredible. The other aspect is intelligence. They had to know who was traveling when. In a hostile environment.

Does Russia have an equivalent technology?

Posted by: RB | Feb 8 2024 13:35 utc | 13

No they dont because this technology is useless against a peer enemy. It has only uses to kill whatever you want to kill in underdeveloped countries.
Russian Military doctrine is self defence and not Terror.
That is why they will not invest in those things.

Posted by: Knullpi | Feb 8 2024 13:47 utc | 16

Posted by: RB | Feb 8 2024 13:35 utc | 13

Russia AFAIK didn't specifically develop large drones, which are able to carry guided missiles.

Why? Because the concept objectively seems pretty inefficient. For the US, this is not a factor, since efficiency is not a key parameter in the occasional, low intensity random strike at someone or something. In Ukraine conflict, efficiency is a much more important criteria in causing as much damage as possible to the enemy.

A very large drone (it has to be to carry a missile) has only minor advantages in terms of survivability to a close air support plane or helicopter. The drone flies very slowly, significantly slower than a plane or helicopter, meaning it has probably a very long turn-around time (launch, fly to launch at a target, RTB, reload). The only advantage could be more loitering time, and more time to obtain a target of opportunity, that was not necessarily determined before the sortie.

A few precision strikes on US air bases in the Middle East, hosting missiles, equipment and facilities for the drones, will effectively render such drones useless, as they will probably need to be operated from Crete or Sicily, as recently in the Black Sea.

Nevertheless, Russia has recently developed a carrier for ATGM missiles, they will probably be tested out. The advantage is longer loitering time. A large drone is competing with CAS aircraft. So far a new effective role for CAS has been found with long range guided bombs. It seems the focus is more on much smaller tactical drones which are fit for a conflict such as Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 8 2024 13:58 utc | 17


Does Russia have an equivalent technology?

Posted by: RB | Feb 8 2024 13:35 utc | 13

I doubt it. In a war with peers that drone is just a slow moving target for air defences. They have loitering munitions that can strike in a similar fashion and they've developed AI for it that allows them to seek out targets autonomously. These munitions are small enough and built of radar absorbing material so they don't show up on air defence radars.

I can't think of a reason for Russia to need the ability to remotely assassinate people in countries they aren't at war with and don't have air defences. They're pretty good at assassination up close and personal which is a dam sight cheaper than developing a kill chain that requires $billions in R&D + technology just to assassinate someone.

If they REALLY want to assassinate someone from afar there's always Kinzhal.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 8 2024 13:58 utc | 18

Russian Military doctrine is self defence and not Terror.
That is why they will not invest in those things.

Posted by: Knullpi | Feb 8 2024 13:47 utc | 16

Not sure why high precision missiles can only be used for terror. Russia only does defense? What about those JDAMS?

Posted by: RB | Feb 8 2024 14:07 utc | 19

Abbreviations and Acronyms

I have updated the list of 3 and 4 letter abbreviations/acronyms seen on MoA that I posted several weeks ago. The list has grown 30% to more than 120 items now. I keep thinking I must have captured them all, however, most days bring one or two new ones that I hadn't seen before. Click the link below to access the current list. Please reply to this post to suggest any omissions that you find and wish added.

http://tinyurl.com/3468brhd

Posted by: Alchemist | Feb 8 2024 14:07 utc | 20

About technology. Yesterday the US killed an Iraqi militia leader and two others. They were traveling in a car on a Bagdad street. The weapon used was a Hellfire missile dropped from a drone. The drone we can assume was flying at high altitude to avoid being shot down by a personal weapon. We’ve seen this before. Moving car, 9:30 pm. The precision is incredible. The other aspect is intelligence. They had to know who was traveling when. In a hostile environment.

Does Russia have an equivalent technology?

Posted by: RB | Feb 8 2024 13:35 utc | 13

Yes, they do -- the Orion, and the Su-70 will enter service soon too, in an entirely separate class of a UCAV.

But that misses the point -- you don't see the Orions much in action in Ukraine, just as the Bayraktars quickly disappeared from the scene on the other side.

Because if the enemy has functional air defense, these platforms are sitting ducks with a life expectancy measured in minutes and hours.

The only reason that MQ-9 drone was able to kill the Iraqi militia leader in Baghdad is that Iraq doesn't have functional air defense, and so the drone was able to hover over Baghdad and fire the very short-ranged Hellfire missile at its target.

If the Iranians wanted to, they could shut down the airspace over Iraq completely with their air defense systems, which are nearly as advanced as the Russian ones. It isn't done for the sake of escalation management.

But in terms of technical capability, good luck having an MQ-9 last for more than a few dozen miles into Russian, Iranian, Chinese, etc. airspace. It will be shot down immediately.

And this is why Russia never invested much in UCAVs (and the same applies to many other classes of systems) -- the war they have been preparing for is a defensive existential strategic one, not aggressive neocolonialist beating up on largely defenseless third world failed states. For that you need highly advanced doomsday weapons that will deter anyone who might get the wrong idea of attacking.

Or at least that was the thinking. In practice things have worked out differently, but the large UCAVs are still useless.

P.S. What Russian planning has to be criticized for is the absence of a large fleet of RQ-4 Global Hawk-type AWACS drones. That is very much needed. Desperately so in fact. But it does not exist.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 14:22 utc | 21

Re US drone plus hellfire missile. The Turk drones did well in other conflicts prior to Ukraine. In Ukraine, they were utterly useless to the point the Turk company refused to supply any more.

The heavy use of glide bombs recently could be due to ramp up in production of kits after a testing phase, but there has been an increase in pressure the entire length of the frontline in the last few weeks. In the month or so prior to that was reports of Russia heavily targeting ukie air defenses all along the frontline.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 8 2024 14:25 utc | 22

All those reports, portraying Zelenski as a decision-maker, keep on fascinating me...

Posted by: andy | Feb 8 2024 14:27 utc | 23

I know that these JDAM kits were designed to upgrade dumb bombs but I wonder how the cost compares between a dumb bomb + JDAM kit vs a PGM glide bomb? Is it cheaper to continue making dumb bombs and JDAM kits or is that just a means of using up your old arsenal.


Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Feb 8 2024 13:43 utc | 14

Like the Saab kit glider + obsolete rocket, there are several major advantages:

1. You already have the weapons and you're unlikely to have conditions to use them

2. the kit itself is probably cheaper than the disposal cost for the old hardware

3. Manufacturing is almost civilian grade and assembly

4. Probably done by others, not those already doing the modern stuff

faster, cheaper, not competing with other weapons for ressources

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 8 2024 14:32 utc | 24

by unimperator | Feb 8 2024 13:58 utc | 17

28 years ago, before Putin, hypersonics and drones and 5 nm chips:

"On 21 April 1996, while using a satellite phone, Dudayev was assassinated by two laser-guided missiles, after his location was detected by a Russian reconnaissance aircraft, which intercepted his phone call. At the time, Dudayev was talking to Konstantin Borovoy, a deputy of the State Duma in Moscow. Additional aircraft were dispatched (a Su-24MR and a Su-25) to locate Dudayev and fire a guided missile. Exact details of this operation have not been released by the Russian government. Russian reconnaissance planes in the area had been monitoring satellite communications for some time trying to match Dudayev's voice signature to the existing samples of his speech.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 8 2024 14:38 utc | 25

On February 1 the German broadsheet Bild reported of the conflict in the Ukrainian leadership:

The Bild publication writes that Zaluzhny wanted to withdraw troops from Avdiivka a few weeks ago, but Zelensky refused him this and on December 30 he personally went to the city to the front line to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters.

So all the coffins that arrived from near Avdeevka to Ukraine since December 30 are solely on the conscience of Zelensky and his passion for narcissism.

____

Crucially important to note that the quoted passage, and especially the judgment in the latter paragraph, does NOT come from Bild.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 8 2024 14:41 utc | 26

But if anyone missed the point in b's article, it is not the bomb itself.

It's the kill chain.

It's the RF reaching the level of the US in the precise weapons, comms and procedures.

Furthermore, not highlighted in the article, the anti-AD and intelligence to allow the usage without too much risk. Remember that for a bomb to glide the plane has to come high, even a BUK can kill it at 50 kms (no need for S300 level of AD).

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 8 2024 14:47 utc | 27

Russia has long had guided bombs, in the kab family with various sizes and guidance...laser, glonass and tv. This new kit allows them to quickly and more inexpensively convert older free fall bombs to guided weapons.

Posted by: nook | Feb 8 2024 14:47 utc | 28

Russia has long had guided bombs, in the kab family with various sizes and guidance...laser, glonass and tv. This new kit allows them to quickly and more inexpensively convert older free fall bombs to guided weapons.

Posted by: nook | Feb 8 2024 14:47 utc | 28

Exactly! and if the Saab kit with rocket integration is 40.000, this one and made in RF, it should be a tenth of that.

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 8 2024 14:50 utc | 29

The situation in Avdiivka for the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues to deteriorate - Russian troops have again advanced in the northern part of the city. The Russian Armed Forces are focusing on consolidation in the old Avdeevka and the dacha village near the coking plant.

In addition, they are trying to occupy the bridge over the railway. It is also reported from the scene that the Russian Armed Forces are attacking the Ukrainian Armed Forces coordinating point in the 14-story Khimik building, striking the front line and adjusting artillery fire.

At the same time, according to Bild military observer Julian Röpke, the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Avdiivka is beginning to resemble Bakhmut.

As we see, Avdiivka is “broken”. And the situation in the Ukrainian Armed Forces is even worse than in Bakhmut, since Avdiivka is practically surrounded. That is, the authorities will have to either leave the city or put all their forces there, probably with a large number of people surrendering, which will once again hit Zelensky’s rating.

In fact, the current situation is a “political cauldron” for the Office of the President, where they “slept” the time when it was possible to prevent the Russian army from tightening the “noose” over the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Avdiivka. But the authorities went exactly according to Bakhmut’s scenario, which is why experienced military personnel again died in battles, who will never be replaced by freshly mobilized civilians.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/21555

Posted by: Down South | Feb 8 2024 14:50 utc | 30

P.S. What Russian planning has to be criticized for is the absence of a large fleet of RQ-4 Global Hawk-type AWACS drones. That is very much needed. Desperately so in fact. But it does not exist.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 14:22 utc | 21

In peer warfare, global hawk type drones are also sitting ducks. US has spent trillions on bling to impress third world countries whereas Russia has concentrated on what is required for peer to peer warfare.
Main difference is in satellite numbers. Much more expensive to deploy.

Russia is currently defeating the proxies without widening the war. The Brits and Europeans may well take that step but until then, Russia seems intent on working within the limitations of not widening the war. The escalation snowball.... who will start it rolling? Who is stupid enough to start it rolling?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 8 2024 14:51 utc | 31

🔥🔥Tactics of small boilers. Avdeevka. Azovstal 2.0

During the campaign, the Russians again used their favorite trick of 2022, “small cauldron tactics,” which they reinforced with complex tactics for suppressing the enemy, worked out at Bakhmut and Rabotino.

After they failed to secure a large cauldron around Avdeevka with a sudden massive attack, they changed tactics.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces then hastily transferred reserves and even formed a strike force in the Selidovo-Novogrodovka area. Probably to break through a possible encirclement. However, the encirclement did not happen. First of all, due to the lack of a breakthrough in the Northern area, which made it possible to maintain logistics.

However, the capture and retention of the waste heap on the northern face of the Avdeevka stranglehold predetermined the further course of events.

A series of successive attacks from different directions reduced the width of the Avdeevsky ledge.

The RF Armed Forces also carried out active work to deprive the garrison of equipment:

✅ Positions were filled with “lighters”,

✅ The delivery route was constantly under fire.

Then there was a breakthrough in the “Tsar’s Hunt” area, which the entire Ukrainian “patriotic” telegram laughed at, but it was this that became decisive☝🏻

The best units that were inside the city were transferred to eliminate the breakthrough, which weakened other areas, and the Russians immediately carried out a strike from the opposite side through the private sector.

To maintain the breakthrough, they cut off Starlink, and also completely transferred air strikes from the rear areas to units directly involved in the hostilities.

At the moment, they have about 500m left to the main artery - Industrial Avenue. After which the units located in southern Avdeevka (Khimik district) will remain in the operational environment.

Yes, there will remain a road through the fields, along which mosquito logistics can be carried out at great risk. However, already now few people want to travel along it; there is practically no transportation.

However, the biggest problem is not that it will be difficult to provide transportation, but that it will be impossible to ensure the exit of the garrison. There is no more evacuation ☝🏻

https://t.me/ZeRada1/18057

The situation in Avdeevka is very difficult; headquarters refused to withdraw units from the city despite Zaluzhny’s position. There are almost three thousand military personnel in Avdeevka; if the city is closed in a ring, this can lead to serious consequences.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/21563

Posted by: Down South | Feb 8 2024 14:53 utc | 32

The escalation snowball.... who will start it rolling? Who is stupid enough to start it rolling?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 8 2024 14:51 utc | 31

My money is in the UK ....

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 8 2024 14:53 utc | 33

@infantmilitario writes:

Russia has initiated the use of an electronic warfare system near Avdeevka that intercepts Starlink signals, a tactic it had previously attempted several times in the Zaporozhye region. Access to Starlink has been disrupted throughout entire Avdeevka.

Orders and intelligence from NATO to the Ukrainian central command are typically transmitted to underground control centers in Avdeevka via Starlink and then relayed to the fortifications through old-style wired telephone lines.

With Starlink disabled, orders and intelligence would either need to be relayed by messengers over a distance of 20 km or transmitted using NATO communication systems, which could be instantly monitored by Russia. Mobile internet and applications may also be subject to interception. Such a development would severely undermine Ukraine’s command and control structure.

Russia has implemented a similar system in the Orekhov area, where it discovered and destroyed numerous headquarters and control posts by intercepting Starlink signals.

Today, along the Avdeevka line, at least 70, and possibly up to 100, airstrikes were carried out with glide bombs weighing between 500 and 1500 kilograms. This sudden escalation could also be attributed to the use of large-caliber bombs and bunker busters against underground command centers via Starlink network traffic.

Thus, both Starlink transmitters, satellite signal flow, command infrastructure, and closed telephone lines can be neutralized through the simultaneous use of thermobaric and concrete-piercing bombs.

In Avdeevka, Russia is employing a scaled-down version of the complex tactics it plans to utilize in the future. Bakhmut was the first attempt, Kharkov Oskol was the second attempt, halting the Ukrainian counterattack in the Zaporozhye region was the third attempt, and Avdeevka represents the fourth attempt.

The fifth attempt will be much larger and deadlier. The Russian Armed Forces have practiced light infantry attacks and coordinated artillery and air support respectively in the first case, resumed mechanized attacks and joint warfare tactics in the second, tested defensive and counterattack organizational structures and various UAV and electronic technologies in the third. The next stage will combine all of these elements, creating a comprehensive and significantly more challenging scenario.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/88079

Posted by: Down South | Feb 8 2024 14:54 utc | 34

Some more on why Russia didn't have certain things:

I know that these JDAM kits were designed to upgrade dumb bombs but I wonder how the cost compares between a dumb bomb + JDAM kit vs a PGM glide bomb? Is it cheaper to continue making dumb bombs and JDAM kits or is that just a means of using up your old arsenal.

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Feb 8 2024 13:43 utc | 14

It is cheaper to strap JDAM kits onto FABs, if only because the FABs already exist in vast quantities.

But Russia had in fact developed all kinds of PGM glide bombs, in any format and with any type of guidance you can think of, many years prior to the war. And yet when the war started they were no where to be found. Why? Because the MoD hadn't ordered them in any significant quantities.

In Syria bombers were in no real danger, flying high above MANPADS range and against terrorists with no AD beyond MANPADS, so the Russian system that calculates the precise moment when a totally dumb bomb should be dropped so that it hits a pre-defined target just as accurately as a JDAM worked perfectly fine. No need for JDAMs or for the actual PGMs.

However, then a real WWII-type war started, and it turned out that you can't fly directly over targets and you need glide bombs, and you need them in vast numbers, presumably way beyond what the capacity for manufacturing the numerous KAB-500 and KAB-1500 varieties is. So they had to quickly get up to speed manufacturing glide kits. Problem is, while the US had decades of experience doing that, the aerodynamics of converting the old totally dumb FABs into glide bombs hadn't been worked out and that had to be done on the fly. So it took some time.

That story repeats itself all throughout the range of the various weapons systems.

The priority in the 2010s was hypersonics, new ICBMs, new SSBNs, Burevestnik, Poseidon, etc.

Still, in the background the design and construction bureaus had developed equivalent or superior conventional weapons to everything NATO has. Tornado-S is a much better system than HIMARS. But someone then had to procure these things and deploy them, and that hadn't happened, because the land army was on the bottom of the list of priorities, and the low-level VKS tasks (such as dropping JDAMs) were also there.

The hope was that by building up the strategic doomsday weapon arsenal NATO will finally listen to the "nyet means nyet" on further encroachment and the war will be avoided. A very foolish bet so far, because NATO didn't listen and has so far called all of the Kremlin's bluffs.

P.S. The worst part is that the war started before all those amazing brand new strategic systems have been fully deployed. Today the Kremlin was bragging about how the land-based strategic forces are "95% modernized" and the submarines are "almost 100% renewed". But what does that actually mean? It means the Topol-M TELs have been upgraded to MIRV-ed YARS, and the SSBNs now carry highly MIRV-ed Bulava SLBMs.

But these are not the 2018 crop super-duper gadgets. What about those?

How many Sarmats are actually deployed? Well, they are just getting started on rolling those out, and that after only two or three tests (where the traditional practice is to fire a dozen of them in tests before deployment).

Avangards? There was one regiment of those around Orenburg already in 2019, but not word about more since then, and that is still not enough to take out all US ICBMs before they are launched -- we are talking about a dozen UR-100N missiles with perhaps a dozen HGVs each. Not enough. The Sarmat is supposed to carry 24 of these, and with 20 such Sarmats you could perhaps disable the US ICBMs, but where are those 20 Sarmats?

Kinzhal? That one is operational, but that is only good for taking out NATO infrastructure up to around the Netherlands. Not for a strategic first strike.

Zirkons? Only deployed on two ships and one SSGN so far, if that. How many targets can you really hit with 24-36 VLS cells? And at what range (again, how do we take out those ICBM silos in Montana and North Dakota?).

Poseidon? There is only one sub that can carry those, and then only six of them. Nobody knows how many have been deployed so far. If they have quietly deposited several dozens of those immediately off the coast of all key NATO objects on several trips of the Belgorod sub in the last 18 months, then that programs has actually been carried out to a meaningful end point. But that is highly doubtful, it looks more like it is another capability that exists in principle, but is not yet deployed.

Burevestnik? Successfully tested, but how many have been built and how many are actually needed to make a difference?

S-500s and above? Reportedly the first battery only entered service in 2021-2022 to be tested. How many are needed to protect from a US strategic strike and how many have been rolled out since then? The situation with the A-235s is even more questionable.

Etc. etc.

The war started before Russia was actually ready. So yeah, Putin preempted them by making the first move and preventing a deep push into the Donbass and the huge destabilization that would have followed. But in the same time they preempted him by forcing him to make that first move before Russia was strategically ready for WWIII...

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 15:25 utc | 35

In peer warfare, global hawk type drones are also sitting ducks. US has spent trillions on bling to impress third world countries whereas Russia has concentrated on what is required for peer to peer warfare.

Main difference is in satellite numbers. Much more expensive to deploy.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 8 2024 14:51 utc | 31

Not really, they would operate from a safe distance around the front line, the way they do now around Crimea (sure, S-400s could take them out no problem, but NATO's longest range AD missiles only have half the range of S-400s), and the main thing Russia actually needs them for is to monitor its on vast territory for low flying cruise missiles and kamikaze drones, because the war has shown clearly that this is a huge vulnerability right now.

Ideally that would be done by A-50s, but those are few in number, cost even more and trained crews are even more precious, so the next best thing is unmanned drones.

And yes, satellites were another area of severe underinvestment, I should have mentioned them.

Meanwhile, what do we see here in the "Owners" column:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_yachts_by_length

We see that 20% of the list is Russian oligarchs even though Russia has only <2% of the world's GPD.

How many A-50s, satellites, submarines, etc. could have been procured with the countless billions spent on yachts and other totally wasteful consumption for the elites?

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 15:39 utc | 36

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 15:25 utc | 35

Meanwhile NATO has deployed a number of incredible weapons, generally known as wanderwaffen.😂

Given that UK mighty carrier didn't make it outside of the dock, I suppose that even the strategic force of US is largely wishful thinking.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 8 2024 15:40 utc | 37

Consider the possibility that getting lots of Ukrainian men killed is precisely what Zelensky and his Masters want.

Posted by: jim c. | Feb 8 2024 15:43 utc | 38

Russia is currently defeating the proxies without widening the war. The Brits and Europeans may well take that step ... <-- Peter AU1 | Feb 8 2024 14:51 utc | 31

It puzzles me why British ministers started to talk about conscription, defending British homeland etc. That would at the very least imply a war in which both sides are knocking down key economic objects of the other, like pipelines from Norway to UK. Most of North Sea is shallow, so pipes would be vulnerable to missiles and hard to repair, and with some additional damage to ports, the British would survive like in WWII, except that back then they had plentiful coal from their mines.

It seems that as their popularity plunges, the minister want to show that they are bolder and more decisive than everybody else. But Labour gains on that, because Starmer does not seem as reckless as Tories -- even if the current tops of Tories and Labour could be peas in the same pod from my point of view. Therefore I think that it is part of a wider phenomenon, militarization and curtailing "fringe thinkers" across the collective West. Mesmerize the majority and divert its attention from their peon status.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 8 2024 15:48 utc | 39

Comms for Internet of Things is relevant to weapons, sensors, drones etc, more so than regular wireless comms.

https://t.me/htech_plus/16813

Wi-Fi HaLow set a data transmission range record of almost 3 km

Wireless technology company Morse Micro has set a new Wi-Fi transmission record of 3 km using the HaLow (802.11ah) standard. The connection speed at this distance was only 1 Mbit/s, but this was enough to make a video call. This technology operates in the sub-GHz range, is resistant to interference, and overcomes the limitations of conventional Wi-Fi, allowing signals to be transmitted over long distances with excellent performance. HaLow was originally announced in 2016, but its implementation is just beginning to gain momentum, and now tests have confirmed the promise of the new solution.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 8 2024 15:48 utc | 40

This is very old news, which was well reported in Stern by Gernot Kramper on 26 April 2023 “Putins Luftwaffe ist wieder da – so tödlich sind die neuen, improvisierten Gleitbomben” and on 5 October 2023 “Putins Gamechanger? Russland setzt über 800 Gleitbomben im Monat ein” but on 8 February 2024 he headlined "Boeings Gleitbombe benötigt keinen Jet und kann Ziele 150 Kilometer hinter der Front treffen" and reported that soon Ukraine will have that American system, which he thinks would be even better and might win the war for Ukraine. Of course he's probably wrong about that, but do you have anything to add to that debate? If so, maybe it will be in your next article?

Posted by: Eric Zuesse | Feb 8 2024 15:50 utc | 41

"The Ukrainian army has nothing comparable in its arsenals."

It seems NATO already has plans to change this:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/21/ukraines-about-to-get-its-new-reverse-slipe-glide-bombs-ground-launched--munitions-that-can-strike-the-far-sides-of-hills/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_Launched_Small_Diameter_Bomb


The issue may once again end up being one of quantity rather than quality.

Posted by: Rubiconned | Feb 8 2024 15:52 utc | 42

According to Yemeni media another US Special Forces team was "deleted" in Gaza by Hamas some time in the last few days.
7 men struck, 5 of which were KIA inside Gaza.
US has announced that X5 Marines were killed in a helicopter crash during training in the US.
Hmmmm.
The training loss excuse SOP is wearing a bit thin.
PS
Apparently several SEALS have also recently "retired". Likely due to injuries sustained during the capture of an armed Houthis boat were X2 SEALS were killed.
The crew of the boat mysteriously disappeared after capture by the US and are believed KIA.

Posted by: Mr Beans brother | Feb 8 2024 15:56 utc | 43

shadowbanned,

Yes, their newest systems are only now being deployed, but in the West there are generally no comparable systems anywhere near production.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 8 2024 15:58 utc | 44

Thank you, b, for another excellent report. Not having real-world combat experience I don't really understand such things. For example, am still unable to 'grok' why it takes so long to capture areas like Bakhmut or Avdveevka, nor why it has taken RF two years to be able to stop UKr lobbing bombs into Donetsk shopping areas and schools. The number and power of modern weaponry suggests to me that opposing forces shouldn't be able to stand such punishment for more than a few hours, but apparently it takes years of day after day pounding. Just can’t wrap my head around it.

Moreover, cannot imagine any joint command multi-national NATO force in the field able to mount, let alone sustain, long-term operations at this sort of scale and intensity.

That said, I instinctively share some of the skepticism voiced by Russian 'patriot/conservative' types who feel that the operations have been conducted in a half-hearted manner, confirming their suspicion that Putin is a tool of the international financial elites, who put him in power and still run the RCB, and is still looking to somehow unite Russia and Western Europe within the now rising Eurasian geographical and civilizational sphere.

Posted by: Scorpion | Feb 8 2024 16:02 utc | 45

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 8 2024 13:58 utc | 18
KH-47 for when you have to kill every motherfucker in the room, Accept no substitute.

Posted by: badjoke | Feb 8 2024 16:06 utc | 46

those american boeing bombs with the 150km range may end up as most of the other weapons:
as tools for terrorism. just fire them blindly and 150km away something will get hit. doesnt matter if its of value or not. if the bombs are already to be decommissioned anyways, and thus there would be no real loss if they just start lobbyng them around at civilians as usual.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 8 2024 16:06 utc | 47

Ill wager that the Russ bombers cut the bombs loose at Mach 2+. Some real war porn right there!

Posted by: Ralph Conner | Feb 8 2024 16:15 utc | 48

The war started before Russia was actually ready. So yeah, Putin preempted them by making the first move and preventing a deep push into the Donbass and the huge destabilization that would have followed. But in the same time they preempted him by forcing him to make that first move before Russia was strategically ready for WWIII...

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 15:25 utc | 35

Yes, this is true. However, it is important to remember that the US is even less ready for WWIII. What Russia is not ready for is a first strike that would eliminate the US' retaliatory capability. The US is incapable of this as well.
When comparing the two sets of capabilities, each is able to attack the other with nuclear weapons, neither is able to prevent a riposte- that's nothing new. Russia, however, has a definite advantage in that one nuke hitting NYC will result in the collapse of the US as a nation-state, while ten nukes hitting Russian cities will not collapse the Russian state. And of course, even in the event of a US first strike, Russian nukes will destroy many more cities than New York, the US has no defensive capability at all. So, Russian resilience would be the deciding factor in a nuclear war at the present time.

It's also important to remember that there is no one to come to the US' rescue after a nuclear war, whereas Russia's relationship with China ensures that people will get fed and infrastructure rapidly replaced. There is simply no one with both the motive and capability to do that for the US- or Europe, of course, which is likely to suffer even worse devastation in a nuclear war, because there's very little 'empty space.' Just striking military targets in EU would cripple civilian infrastructure.

No rational American leader would launch a first strike against Russia. Sadly, this does not mean that US leaders are not going to give it a shot. If nothing else, there is a significant cohort of Xtian loonies working to bring on the End Times.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 8 2024 16:17 utc | 49

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_Launched_Small_Diameter_Bomb


The issue may once again end up being one of quantity rather than quality.

Posted by: Rubiconned | Feb 8 2024 15:52 utc | 42

those american boeing bombs with the 150km range may end up as most of the other weapons:
as tools for terrorism. just fire them blindly and 150km away something will get hit. doesnt matter if its of value or not. if the bombs are already to be decommissioned anyways, and thus there would be no real loss if they just start lobbyng them around at civilians as usual.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 8 2024 16:06 utc | 47

Saab kits please, boeing currently is the king of PoS engineering

Mentioned them on this thread and before

Add 40.000 usd to outdated rockets and dumb small bombs and VOILA!

And this might be something RF can still try to do, double an HIMAR range would be practical using old stock as sunk costs

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 8 2024 16:19 utc | 50

Piotr Berman | Feb 8 2024 15:48 utc | 39

They seem to be living in a make believe world. Perhaps the world of their own propaganda. People promoted due to narrative loyalty ect. Part and parcel I think of general top down breakdown in western society. UK spending billions on war against Russia when their own economy is on the verge of collapse...

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 8 2024 16:21 utc | 51

35. How many are needed to protect from a US strategic strike and how many have been rolled out since then? The situation with the A-235s is even more questionable.

How much of the Maerican strategic nuclear arsenal..comprised mostly of what, 5 decade old Minutemen?..is actually functional? Their last test fire..and I'm sure they selected a missile in 'good' condition (for a grandfather) had to ditch into the sea.

For the strategic calculus, Russia must assume all of the US deterrent works, but reality is I would suppose a 50/50 failure rate with attendant catastrophic effects when ICBMs go off target. But hey let's talk more about those shiny new Russian weapons systems and how long they are taking to manufacture.

I mean, maybe Maerica can buy some?

My critiques rest mostly with Westrrn leadership because all of this is predictable and well exploited by Putin who has taken proverbial lemons and made one fucking heck of a lemonade. US look like rank amateurs, murderously tyrannical and stupid to boot. A heady combination in geopolitics indeed. Reality is increasingly asserting itself.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 8 2024 16:24 utc | 52

posted few days ago USA has old but 80000 bombs that are being developed adapted as ground launched but similar style missile as well to adapt to air launch.GLSDB.

Posted by: Jo | Feb 8 2024 16:26 utc | 53

It seems everyone is also talking about the new bomb/missile GLSDB

Here is a well presented WSJ video I saw. A few claims:

- 1 meter CEP accuracy

- Can be launched from existing MLRS platforms, including with different combinations of HIMARS and warheads

- Can be programmed to maneuver and alter its path to confuse AA defense, evade interception, or hit targets from multiple angles

"GLSDB: Ukraine’s Most Flexible Weapon Is Accurate to a Meter | WSJ Equipped"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeaHm8HxAYs&ab_channel=TheWallStreetJournal

It seems to be that with NATO's ISR overmatch a weapon like this could cause quite a few headaches for Russia no matter how strong their offense is or how effective their air defense has proven to be. We shall see.

Posted by: Rubiconned | Feb 8 2024 16:34 utc | 54

War...what is it good for?

It's like this:

Necessity is the mother of invention.

Invention is progress.

Progress is good therefore necessity is good.

Therfore necessity is desirable.

It's like Formula one.

They compete within the Formula until they reach the omega point.

Then they change the Formula.

The omega becomes the new necessity.

On and on and on they go...

The question one needs to ask is:

'Am I within the dialectic, resolving the contradictions or above the dialectic, watching the pendulum swing but above the motion?'

Are you in the movie or sitting in the auditorium with a fat tub of popcorn 🍿?

Play it again!

Posted by: FuturePeaceGonzo | Feb 8 2024 16:34 utc | 55

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 15:39 utc | 36

How do you think things would have progressed had Clinton won in 2016 and proceeded with a NATO attack on Russia as seemed plausible at the time?

Posted by: Afro | Feb 8 2024 16:36 utc | 56

whirlx your post re nato planes medevac spy etc re Romania should be here.....but thinks...any Nato forces directing efforts based in Avdeevka now cannot get out???Or any signs they are exiting?

Posted by: Jo | Feb 8 2024 16:46 utc | 57

It’s now obvious that the Zaluzhny- Zelensky rift is causing disastrous harm to the UAF.

I’m surprised that the CIA hasn’t taken out Zelensky (yet.)

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 8 2024 16:47 utc | 58

thanks b... well said - especially the last part - and all on target...

Posted by: james | Feb 8 2024 16:50 utc | 59

zelensky has pulled the plug..

Zelensky removes commander-in-chief of Ukrainian Army

Posted by: james | Feb 8 2024 16:53 utc | 60

After meeting with Zelenskiy: Saluschny confirms his replacement as commander-in-chief
.
Speculation that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy is seeking to replace the previous commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeri Zalushny, gained new fuel on Thursday. Both Zelenskiy and Zalushny posted reports on their respective social networks about a meeting that both of them met in Kiev.

In his post, Saluschny spoke of a “polite and serious conversation.” It was agreed that changes in strategy and approach were necessary. He would like to thank everyone who had worked with him up to that point.

Posted by: ossi | Feb 8 2024 16:53 utc | 61

Zaluzhny has been removed from office.
The order has been signed.

Very good news for Russia, very bad news for Ukraine.

Posted by: Apollyon | Feb 8 2024 16:54 utc | 62

Et Tu, Voldymyre?

https://www.rt.com/russia/592091-fires-top-general/

:))))))))

Posted by: Rubiconned | Feb 8 2024 16:57 utc | 63

by Jo | Feb 8 2024 16:46 utc | 57

Thanks, a wrong thread, indeed. But it is all so connected anyway and not very far away, distance wise.
It is about the Black Sea, not Avdeyevka. Just too many planes above it than ever before. But as it seems Zaluzhny is gone like 10 minutes ago and awaiting for the new hero leading entire NATO this time, to abyss.
I really expect shooting to start soon, as otherwise Russia will be unstoppable. That is how NATO thinks right now.
Will it help? No.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 8 2024 17:01 utc | 64

So, we have information that Zelensky and Zaluzhny held a 'polite conversation' after which Zaluzhny is effectively sacked. Zaluzhny said they had agreed that 'changes in tactics were required'. Zaluzhny will be replaced by Syrsky.

Now there's different ways you can interpret this. Considering that Zaluzhny was the one more likely advocating for 'pull-back and delay', can we assume that the 'new changed tactics' will be renewed attacks and offensives? Syrsky is Zelensky's guy, and Syrsky was also in charge of the Bakhmut defense. During his watch, AFU fed its best special forces and Nato trained mechanized units into Bakhmut, which later contributed to the botched counter-offensive.

We can then wonder what the new tactics will be and how it will affect in the balance of power.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 8 2024 17:01 utc | 65

The sack is in:

The Zaluzhny Sack

What about a coup next, or is that totally naive?

Posted by: CrazyTrain | Feb 8 2024 17:09 utc | 66

Dugin plays it down, but, he is totally right.

Tucker Carlson is a symbolic figure. He is now the main symbol of the America that hates Biden, liberals, and globalists and is preparing to vote for Trump. Trump, Carlson, and Musk, plus Texas Governor Abbott, are the faces of the looming American Revolution, this time a Conservative Revolution. To this already powerful resource, Russia connects. No, it is not about Putin supporting Trump, which could easily be dismissed in the context of war with the United States. Carlson’s visit is about something else. Biden and his maniacs have effectively attacked a great nuclear power through the hands of Kiev’s unleashed terrorists, and humanity is on the verge of destruction. Nothing more, nothing less.

One has to love brutal words sometimes.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 8 2024 17:10 utc | 67

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 8 2024 16:47 utc | 58

By firing his political opponent [Zaluzhny], Zelensky has sealed his fate. It's coming.

Posted by: AI | Feb 8 2024 17:12 utc | 68

"US funding failure will have serious battlefield consequences, says Ukraine"

They got that right. The top army commander gets fired.

Posted by: KingCobra | Feb 8 2024 17:16 utc | 69

Further evidence of war crimes committed by Ukraine. It is reminiscent of the photo that B recently posted on the Gaza conflict.

Here's to Alexey Motuz!
https://vk.com/search?c%5Bq%5D=Alexey%20Motuz&c%5Bsection%5D=auto&z=video258427548_456243895

It will become increasingly difficult to socialise in the future.
"Were you in the US Army?"
"Did you work for the US Army?"
"Were you in the British army?"
"Did you work for the British Army?"
"Were you in the French army?"
"Did you work for the French army?"
"Were you in Ukraine after 2014?"
...
No need to ask about affiliation to secret services.

Anyone who finds themselves in a situation like Alexey Motuz should behave in exactly the same way.
There is nothing more to gain, only more to lose.
The families of soldiers should be prepared for these situations.
No money, no communication - nothing, because they can't control the situation.
The Russian armed forces still seem to have deficits here. Until now, however, something like this was rather unusual in the modern military. Not torture, but approaching family members. Today's technical possibilities also play a role here.
But it is not decisive for war.
Sadists and the mentally ill might think they are currently in paradise in Ukraine.

Posted by: 600w | Feb 8 2024 17:24 utc | 70

On Germany's role in and for Ukraine
.
Now Scholz is in the USA for the third time and once again his trip comes at an important time. The United States has implemented the RAND Corporation paper of January 2023, the implementation of which I reported in detail last year. RAND had demanded that the USA stop its expensive financing of Ukraine because it no longer had anything to gain from it.

That year I speculated a lot about what would happen next. There were basically three possible scenarios. First, the West could have dumped Ukraine, which is essentially what RAND suggested, but I would have been surprised if it had happened that way, since the stated goal of the US is to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia. Even if this is impossible in Ukraine, the US can at least pursue its second goal and “inflict costs” on Russia in Ukraine, as Washington puts it.

The second option that RAND put forward was to freeze the conflict on the line of contact according to the “Korean model”. However, this possibility is unrealistic because Russia does not accept it. Russia wants a final solution, not a frozen conflict on its border that the US can then restart later.

The third possibility discussed in Washington was for the EU to continue supporting Ukraine while the US withdraws from Ukraine aid and focuses on Taiwan and its conflict with China. From the USA's perspective, this would have the advantage that tensions in Europe would remain, that the fight against Russia would continue, but that others would bear the costs: Ukraine sacrifices its land and its people for US interests, the Europeans sacrifice for them US interests their money and their wealth.

Obviously this third option was chosen. The USA is no longer giving money to Ukraine, but the EU has just released another 50 billion for Kiev. And as soon as that happened, the New York Times was already reporting on ideas from the White House that the EU should now buy US weapons for Kiev. This is a great plan, because not only would the USA no longer pay anything for Kiev, they would even earn money if the Europeans bought US weapons for Kiev.

And as luck would have it, Chancellor Scholz is on his way to Washington on the day of this report. In addition, the trip also coincides with the cessation of the Swedish investigation into the Nord Stream explosion.

Now the German Federal Prosecutor General is supposed to further investigate the explosion. Since the Federal Attorney General is bound by instructions from the federal government, Scholz in Washington could also be given “advice” on what the Federal Attorney General should find out in his investigations. Even the European Court of Justice criticized years ago that the German public prosecutor's office is bound by instructions and therefore that the German judiciary is not independent of the federal government.

Don't forget popcorn
So we can be curious to see how this trip from Scholz to Washington goes and what new findings the media and German investigators will present in the near future. After Bundesschlumpf Scholz's last two trips to the USA, it is very likely that this trip will be quite interesting again.

So we should keep the beer cold and stock up on popcorn, things could get pretty bizarre again in the next few days.

Posted by: ossi | Feb 8 2024 17:27 utc | 71

The proverbial Anonymous US Officials just confirmed the russian version on the downed IL-76:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/us/politics/ukraine-russia-patriot-missile.html

"A Russian plane shot down with a Patriot missile was probably carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, U.S. officials say.

Feb. 8, 2024Updated 11:39 a.m. ET"

Posted by: neutrino | Feb 8 2024 17:28 utc | 72

So... will Zelensky last until Feb 22 ?

Exactly 10 years after the US coup.
2 years after the SMO began.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 8 2024 17:36 utc | 73

The news arrived in Italy that Ze had removed Za.

Posted by: kamma43muri | Feb 8 2024 17:38 utc | 74

… Add 40.000 usd to outdated rockets and dumb small bombs and VOILA!

And this might be something RF can still try to do, double an HIMAR range would be practical using old stock as sunk costs

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 8 2024 16:19 utc | 50

You have it slightly wrong, the SDB part of GLSDB is the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb that was designed with integral deployables wing and onboard guidance, it has only ever existed in this guided form, not as a kit for some kind of unguided bomb of similar dimensions. This is different to the glide kits discussed in the article and undoubtedly due to the fact that such a small gravity bomb needs to be accurately guided in order to be effective.

On costs, the US has produced 17k units of GBU-39 and has large stocks of the rocket motors so the only real cost is the integration into a single unit.

RF doesn’t have stocks of equivalent small guided bombs though I certainly agree that all efforts should be made to produce cost-effective guidance upgrade kits for relevant weapon systems, especially rocket artillery, where the shot cost of guided rockets is too high to permit wider use.

https://www.edrmagazine.eu/rafael-accurate-rockets-with-epik

It also makes sense for glide bombs to be fitted with booster rockets to allow the delivery aircraft to work even further from enemy AD, because it should be understood that glide bombs are only cost effective so long as the delivery aircraft can operate in relative safety, which should not be taken for granted going forward.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 8 2024 17:40 utc | 75

Rubiconned @| 54


- Can be launched from existing MLRS platforms, including with different combinations of HIMARS and warheads

80k of these won't help if Russia hunts your launchers with Lancets.
GLSDBs are GPS-guided so they will fail the same way other systems did.
How many HIMARS trucks are left, maybe 150?

Not a gamechanger but yes, terror weapon. I guess once Avdeevka is done some FABs will be spent on hotels. Baedeker bombing reimagined as Michelin bombing.

Posted by: SOS | Feb 8 2024 17:43 utc | 76

Elensky has finally sacked Zaluzhny and replaced him with....Syrsky. Who is despised by the Ukranazi track and file for ordering pointless suicide attacks.

Hopefully the Ukranazis will conscript Jihadi Julian Röpcke and Inkanazi1969 now.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 8 2024 17:46 utc | 77

Rezident_UA claims says Syrsky has 'promised Zelensky to keep Avdeevka'. They also say AFU HQ is refusing to withdraw anyone from Avdeevka, regardless of Zaluzhny's position.

Guess that answers that question then. AFU is going to try to hold on to Avdeevka through tooth and nails.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 8 2024 17:47 utc | 78

What about a coup next, or is that totally naive?

Posted by: CrazyTrain | Feb 8 2024 17:09 utc | 66

It is incredible how long Selenski has been holding himself in power. Would be great if he was replaced. Could only improve the situation. I'm just tired of seeing him. Same applies to Biden, and Stoltenberg.

Posted by: grunzt | Feb 8 2024 17:48 utc | 79

Borrell visited a ukraine UAV factory says doing so well it needs not EU support...can anyone track his travels to enable targeting this place?

Posted by: Jo | Feb 8 2024 17:49 utc | 80

Why is the bomb painted in a very American style?

Posted by: CIROC | Feb 8 2024 13:06 utc | 4

I suspect that ground crews have the same dark sense of humour regardless of where they are. Its a very long tradition too, going back to the availability of chalk and something to be hurled at the enemy that could be written on.

Posted by: JohninMK | Feb 8 2024 17:56 utc | 82

Ossi 71:

So we should keep the beer cold and stock up on popcorn, things could get pretty bizarre again in the next few days.

Mit Popkorn und Bier kann man das Agieren dieser Dreckregierung wohl kaum ertragen.
Jetzt verkaufen sie schon Postaktien um die Welteroberungsphantasien und den Ukrainekrieg ihrer Demokratenfreunde in den USA zu finanzieren, die für diese Politik im eigenen Land kein Mehrheit haben. Geht es noch trauriger in Deutschland ?

You can hardly tolerate the actions of this dirty government with popcorn and beer.
Now they are already selling postal shares to finance the world conquest fantasies and the Ukraine war of their Democrat friends in the USA, who do not have a majority for this policy in their own country. Can things get any sadder in Germany?
(Google trans)

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 8 2024 17:59 utc | 83

How do you think things would have progressed had Clinton won in 2016 and proceeded with a NATO attack on Russia as seemed plausible at the time?

Posted by: Afro | Feb 8 2024 16:36 utc | 56

They would have launched the war four years earlier. She was actively promising it during the campaign.

Trump was always going to be a complete disaster as a president, and he was. But there was no choice but to vote for him, in order to delay or possibly prevent the war. Well, it was delayed, but not prevented. And he was a complete disaster indeed.

It is not clear if that really worked out to Russia's advantage though -- back in 2017 the AFU would have been much easier to take out.

I maintain that when the mushroom clouds start going up in the sky, Putin will share much of the blame, for carrying out foreign policy in the interest of Russian oligarchs, not in the interests of the Russian state (and humanity as a whole), and thus looking to make a deal instead of winning decisively. The whole escalation cycle would have been cut off entirely had there been Russian troops in control of Lvov and Uzhgorod by May-June 2022.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 18:01 utc | 84

"Consider the possibility that getting lots of Ukrainian men killed is precisely what Zelensky and his Masters want."

Posted by: jim c. 38

Agreed.

That has been the plan right from the beginning. Mini Zee's assignment was to exterminate the Ukrainian Christian population in order to facilitate the take-over of Ukraine by the Self-Chozen.

They were expecting to create Israyelle North right on the border of the country they hate more than life itself.

Although it's not going so well for the scum bags for some reason...

Posted by: arthurdecco | Feb 8 2024 18:02 utc | 85

Guess that answers that question then. AFU is going to try to hold on to Avdeevka through tooth and nails.

What is, "historically catastrophic military decisions," Alex?

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 8 2024 18:05 utc | 86

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 8 2024 14:51 utc | 31

#######################

I can't speak to the integration of the individual states but the Axis of Resistance surely has many satellites in orbit now.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 8 2024 18:05 utc | 87

It seems everyone is also talking about the new bomb/missile GLSDB

Here is a well presented WSJ video I saw. A few claims:

- 1 meter CEP accuracy

- Can be launched from existing MLRS platforms, including with different combinations of HIMARS and warheads

- Can be programmed to maneuver and alter its path to confuse AA defense, evade interception, or hit targets from multiple angles

"GLSDB: Ukraine’s Most Flexible Weapon Is Accurate to a Meter | WSJ Equipped"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeaHm8HxAYs&ab_channel=TheWallStreetJournal

It seems to be that with NATO's ISR overmatch a weapon like this could cause quite a few headaches for Russia no matter how strong their offense is or how effective their air defense has proven to be. We shall see.

Posted by: Rubiconned | Feb 8 2024 16:34 utc | 54

It will be a serious problem, I don't know why people are so nonchalant. Sure, these should be easier to shoot down than HIMARS, but air defense cannot be everywhere, and we've seen how much damage HIMARS has done.

80k of these won't help if Russia hunts your launchers with Lancets. GLSDBs are GPS-guided so they will fail the same way other systems did. How many HIMARS trucks are left, maybe 150?

Posted by: SOS | Feb 8 2024 17:43 utc | 76

Wishful, detached from reality thinking. Compare the Lancet range with the GLSDB range. How many HIMARS have you seen taken out with Lancets? Zero.

It is way past time for RU to roll out those roaming Shaheds swarms with relayed controls that can take out moving and non-pre-determined targets deep in the rear in order to hunt down NATO's long-range strike capabilities.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 18:06 utc | 88

Already reports in TG of Ukrainian soldiers refusing orders to stay in Adviivka and retreating out of the city.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 8 2024 18:06 utc | 89

Meanwhile NATO has deployed a number of incredible weapons, generally known as wanderwaffen.😂

Given that UK mighty carrier didn't make it outside of the dock, I suppose that even the strategic force of US is largely wishful thinking.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 8 2024 15:40 utc | 37

Not how it works.

Nobody is touching North Korea even though it has a relatively small arsenal, and, more important to our discussion, nobody dared touched them already when they first broke out as a nuclear state and before they built up their current forces, which are now really serious.

Because they could deal unacceptable damage even though their total forces were small in comparison with those of their enemies.

It doesn't matter how decrepit the US strategic arsenal is -- if even just a third of the Minuteman missiles can successfully launch, it is suicide to go against the US. And that is just the land-based silo ICBMs, the Trident SLBMs are in a much better shape and much more difficult to stop,

If you are going to fight WWIII, you need supremacy, not just superiority, so that while you may still lose some cities, you don't lose everything. Which means that you need an overwhelming first strike capability plus robust missile defense. And not merely as worked out tech, but as actually deployed in the needed numbers systems.

In your concrete example, sure, the UK aircraft carrier barely works. That is completely irrelevant -- the UK doesn't even have nuclear ALCMs, it only operates SSBNs with Tridents. And those are in decrepit state too, but the Tridents are relatively new and working. Can you sink the one SSBN that is always out there somewhere in the global ocean before it can fire those 16 Tridents? You can't do that reliably? Then do you have a way to shoot the Tridents down mid-course before they release the MIRVs? You don't? Well, then you are looking at 128 x 400-kt nukes taking out all your major cities...

Yes, their newest systems are only now being deployed, but in the West there are generally no comparable systems anywhere near production.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Feb 8 2024 15:58 utc | 44

See above.

It's also important to remember that there is no one to come to the US' rescue after a nuclear war, whereas Russia's relationship with China ensures that people will get fed and infrastructure rapidly replaced.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 8 2024 16:17 utc | 49

Unfortunately, already during the Cold War US nuclear war plans always featured a simultaneous attack on China in the event of an all out war with Russia. Because why should the godless communists inherit the planet? Plus there is plenty of ammo for both anyway. I highly doubt that has changed in recent decades, as the reasoning behind it has only grown stronger.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 18:08 utc | 90

GLSDBs are GPS-guided so they will fail the same way other systems did.

Posted by: SOS | Feb 8 2024 17:43 utc | 76

That's the thing western reporters never acknowledge- anything dependent on GPS is going to be of limited use against Russia. They have the best EW in the world. Part of their current assault on Avdeevka is disabling Starlink by non-kinetic means. Does anyone think GPS is less vulnerable? It's a much older and more primitive technology, and there have been lots of opportunity to study it not just in civilian uses but in military operations.

The Ukrainians will certainly get a few shots in with the latest wunderwaffe, but, as you say, they are going to be much use as a terror weapon than as a military weapon.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 8 2024 18:09 utc | 91

Does Russia have an equivalent technology?

Posted by: RB | Feb 8 2024 13:35 utc | 13

Yes, Russia does have a missile similar to the Hellfire but, like most Russian military products it doesn't have a catchy, marketing tested name.

It is the LMUR-305 or Izdeliye 305 or 9A-7755 and is pretty much the same but with far less R&D so there are fewer versions, like none with the 'sword' warhead.

Posted by: JohninMK | Feb 8 2024 18:09 utc | 92

Russia is currently defeating the proxies without widening the war. The Brits and Europeans may well take that step but until then, Russia seems intent on working within the limitations of not widening the war. The escalation snowball.... who will start it rolling? Who is stupid enough to start it rolling?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 8 2024 14:51 utc | 31

Until recently, there was little danger of imminent direct NATO-Russia war. For the simple reason that NATO hadn't started moving assets close to the potential front lines. This with all caveats about how that will primarily be a missile war with nukes -- it still matters where you are launching those from.

That has now changed, with the new US bases in Sweden and Finland (and the extremely ominous provision for absolutely no control over what types of weapon the US brings there), and with all the activity in Poland and the Baltics.

It may well start even before 2024 is over.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 18:11 utc | 93

Volodymyr Zelensky appoints new commander-in-chief of the armed forces
The Ukrainian army chief Valeriy Zalushnyj has been removed from his post. “The time for such a renewal is now,” Zelensky said.

Ukrainian General Valeriy Zalushny is no longer at the head of the military there. President Volodymyr Zelenskyj replaced him with the previous army chief Olexander Syrskyj. In a post on the online platform X, Zelensky said he thanked the general for his service. “The time for such renewal is now,” said the President of Ukraine in a video message.

Selenskyj offered Saluzhnyj to “remain part of the team”. He also discussed with him “who could be in the renewed leadership of the armed forces.”

Posted by: John Heartfield | Feb 8 2024 18:14 utc | 94

Yes, Russia does have a missile similar to the Hellfire but, like most Russian military products it doesn't have a catchy, marketing tested name.

It is the LMUR-305 or Izdeliye 305 or 9A-7755 and is pretty much the same but with far less R&D so there are fewer versions, like none with the 'sword' warhead.

Posted by: JohninMK | Feb 8 2024 18:09 utc | 92

The Hellfire analog is the 9K121 Vikhr missile.

The LMUR warhead is three times bigger than either of those, and the range is longer.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 8 2024 18:16 utc | 95

@32

So, Kiev is saying only 3,000 troops are at risk of encirclement in Avdiivka. Any chance Kiev is understating the total? Someone on this forum said the truth is more like 10,000 to 20,000.

As I see it, the greater the number of Ukrainian troops that surrender, the greater the degree of demoralization which will ensue among the Ukrainian population.

Posted by: GW | Feb 8 2024 18:18 utc | 96

Our sources from the OP were again the most prompt and accurate, Zaluzhny’s resignation took place, and without real reasons. Andrey Ermak continues to clear the political and military landscape before the vacuum of legitimacy that will come on 03/31/24

https://t.me/rezident_ua/21565
Our source in the OP said that Andriy Ermak had been promoting Syrsky to the position of Commander-in-Chief for a year, and today Zelensky said that he had appointed General Syrsky, formerly the commander of the Ground Forces, as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/21567

Posted by: Down South | Feb 8 2024 18:21 utc | 97

by Ghost of Zanon | Feb 8 2024 18:06 utc | 89

I mean, when tonnes of bombs fall in a small area and in a succession, even if they do not hit directly, everyone is so shell-shocked, can barely function and the only urge is to leave as far as possible, ignoring everything else, even if wounded.
The same effect as in the WWII of a famous Red Army salvos of artillery, of all calibers and explosives, towards dug Nazi army.
The greatest fear is from the tank fire, as those one cannot hear coming.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 8 2024 18:25 utc | 98

The third possibility discussed in Washington was for the EU to continue supporting Ukraine while the US withdraws from Ukraine aid and focuses on Taiwan and its conflict with China. From the USA's perspective, this would have the advantage that tensions in Europe would remain, that the fight against Russia would continue, but that others would bear the costs: Ukraine sacrifices its land and its people for US interests, the Europeans sacrifice for them US interests their money and their wealth.

Obviously this third option was chosen.

Posted by: ossi | Feb 8 2024 17:27 utc | 71

That's not the 'third option,' that's 'Plan A' since 2014. Europe is America's prime target in the war, anything that happens to Russia is gravy.

It's simply not credible to believe that the real movers and shakers in US policy could not see that sanctions would not topple Putin or cripple the Russian economy. Based purely on open source, widely disseminated material I've known that since 2008. BRICS, BRI, joint projects between Russia and China, the crushing of the Atlanticist oligarchs- how dumb do you have to be to think that Russia in 2022 was vulnerable either to sanctions or the feeble onslaught of Ukrainian forces? Our leaders are greedy and arrogant, but they're not actually stupid and they certainly aren't ignorant of basic economic facts.

What they are, most significantly, is captives of the system they rule. As much as the WEF crowd would like to transition to technofeudalism, it's not something they can just decide to do and pull off in an afternoon. The war against Russia is in reality a war against Europe, with the aim of first creating utter dependency on the US, and second of imposing the most totalitarian measures on the population, first of Europe and then of the US itself. Part of this effort is the forced deindustrialization of the EU, especially Germany, and the transfer of its technological production base to the US- probably along with a significant fraction of the skilled workers that operate and maintain it. This will restore Fortress America's supply chain, and at the same time create an elite, and therefor loyal, cadre of foreign workers while continuing to keep most American workers out of the industrial production sector that Uncle Karl told us leads to revolutionary consciousness. That's the point at which 'money' ceases to represent value at all, and bears no relationship to the costs of production. It becomes purely a tool for controlling behavior. Be nice or starve, you're free to choose.

I think there are reasons that they won't be able to pull it off, but it's not stupid, it's brilliant given the other options available. The execution, on the other hand, tends to be ham-handed, because the True Believers tasked with it are for the most part not so bright, very corrupt, and poorly informed. That's almost a precondition for employment. It's hard to get good help these days.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 8 2024 18:27 utc | 99

We have collected the most famous operations of Syrsky, the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

▪️Debaltsevo-2015
▪️Soledar-2022
▪️Bakhmut-2022
All these operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces ended in encirclement and defeat for them.


https://t.me/geromanat/19275

Posted by: Down South | Feb 8 2024 18:27 utc | 100

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