Ukraine SitRep: A Collapse Is Coming - And Then?
In the last Ukraine situation report I discussed the choice of General Oleksandr Syrski as the new Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He is likely to support the more aggressive choices the Ukrainian president Zelenski will make.
For mostly public relation reasons Zelenski demands constant attacks on Russian forces and no retreat of Ukrainian forces until absolutely necessary. Syrski is willing to deliver on that even as history says that he is unlikely to be successful:
Syrski, who was born as a Russian, had lost the cauldron battles of Debaltsevo (2015), Soledar (2023) and Bakhmut (2023). Currently Avdeevka is in a cauldron and likely to fall.Rumors say that Syrski has already ordered reserves to reinforce the troops in Avdeevka.
The latest news says that some reinforcements have indeed arrived:
Some units of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Avdiivka have been replaced by other units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Source: Ivan Sekach, Chief of Public Relations of the 110th Separate Mechanised Brigade named after Marko Bezruchko, in an interview with Radio Liberty on 13 February
Quote: "We lack sufficient capabilities to maintain control of the city, but reinforcements are arriving, and we rely on friendly units. For the first time in almost two years of the 110th Separate Mechanised Brigade's operation, some of our units have been fully withdrawn from combat for rest and rotation. Indeed, reinforcements have come. I won't specify [which] unit, but it provides substantial support. We feel a bit more at ease since its arrival."
We do not know for sure which brigades have replaced the completely worn down 110th Mechanized. Rumors have it that the 3rd Assault Brigade was sent to relieve Avdeevka. The 3rd had evolved out of the 'nationalist', i.e neo-nazi, Azov militia. Other news said that at least parts of the planned reinforcements for Avdeevka were successfully attacked on their march while still being far away from the city.
All lines of communications to Avdeevka are under Russian fire but have yet to be physically cut. After a few days of sprints the Russian attacks have noticeably slowed down. This may be because of increased resistance from the Ukrainian side but could also have plenty of other reasons. Large scale FAB500 bombings continue to destroy the city and its defenders.
The Russian army is now on attack along the whole frontline. This is reflected in unusually high Ukrainian losses as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Today's report lists up to 1145 Ukrainian casualties - double the number than usual. Material losses on the Ukrainian side are also high. In total some 23 armored vehicles and over 60 trucks were reported to have been hit during the last 24 hours. The number is a lot higher than on the days before.
The mismatch between armored vehicle losses and the losses of mere trucks, which earlier in the war was one to one or even two to one, has now held up for several weeks. My interpretation of these numbers is that Ukraine has lost so many armored vehicles that it needs to use trucks to ferry troops and supplies to the front lines. Many of those get destroyed by the proliferating use of First Person View drones.
Reports of Ukrainian artillery pieces hit by Russian counter battery fire are down by a large margin. Months ago some 20 or more gun kills per day were normal business. The reported numbers have now come down to just a handful per day. I associated this with a lack of ammunition on the Ukrainian side. Guns which have nothing to shoot do not have to reveal their position and are more safe than guns which actively fire.
While the carnage along the frontline continues every day, Russian artillery forces use long range drones and missiles to hit weapon production facilities and troop agglomerations deep within Ukrainian territory. As the Ukrainian air defense also lacks ammunition more of these attacks are able to successfully destroy their targets.
The Ukrainian army is lacking ground forces. As previously described:
Yesterday a Washington Post article, sourced from interviews at the Ukrainian front, describes the utter shamble the Ukrainian forces are in:In interviews across the front line in recent days, nearly a dozen soldiers and commanders told The Washington Post that personnel deficits were their most critical problem now, as Russia has regained the offensive initiative on the battlefield and is stepping up its attacks.
Even if efforts to raise more personnel succeed, at high economic costs, it will take months until they will reach the frontline:
The new Ukrainian mobilization law, which is supposed to refill the army with fresh bodies, is still creeping through the Ukrainian parliament. It will likely come into force only by April. The first new troops conscripted under it will take until July to be combat capable.
But even if the existing Ukrainian forces can hold out that long they still will lack the ammunition to hit back at Russian efforts. Even if the U.S. agrees soon to spend more money on Ukraine, which seems unlikely, it would take many months to refill the Ukrainian arsenals.
For all these reasons I expect that the Ukrainian frontline will break rather sooner - within weeks - than later - i.e. within months.
Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism takes a look at what will probably happen beyond that point:
Ukraine now resembles a patient with a terminal disease who is staring to exhibit multi-organ failure. His longevity is still uncertain but is measured in months, not years. It’s not obvious which system will go first and whether that one by itself will be fatal or will kick off the terminal cascade. But the odds of pulling out of the current trajectory are poor.We’d like to step back and consider what Russia’s choices might be as Ukraine starts coming unglued.
...
“Collapse” means a combination of widespread surrenders, retreats/abandonment of positions, and Russian captures of Ukraine forces because they are surrounded and lack the ammo to fight back.
...
[Why] a big arrow move toward the Dnieper might be seen as suboptimal is the unhinged state of the West. You do not make sudden moves around crazy people. Yet another reason to watch and see how Ukraine comes apart is the administrative burden of occupying territory. That is likely a reason for Russia bulking up its military so much.If Russia did want to rachet up pressure on Kiev, some sort of re-run of its 2022 pining operation might be a preferred move. If Russia is lucky, the government will decamp to Lvov, which would be an admission that they expect to lose Kiev and much of central Ukraine.
The reason for trying to engage in a bit more granular thinking is that many commentators can envision some end states Russia would like, but how to get from A to B is not obvious.
The best Russian move may well be to continue on a slow pace:
So aside from possibly pinning Kiev and finishing incorporating the missing parts of the four oblasts, one possible path is for Russia to keep biting off pieces as what is left of the central government and the US and NATO are forced to watch and are relegated to missile and drone attacks, but not enough to change the direction of travel. Kharkiv might be next on the menu due to proximity (and therefore less Poland / Baltic freakout) and high proportion of ethnic Russians. Taking Odessa is a logistical challenge; the best train lines are either through Krivoy Rog or from the northeast across the country.
Back in March 2022 I looked at the future constellation of Ukraine and concluded that Krivoy Rog and Odessa, for ethnic, historic and economic reasons, should be part of the Russia friendly area:
When the war to disarm the Ukraine started to my utter surprise I asked what Russia would desire as the geographic end state of the war:
It is difficult to discern what the planed end state of this operation is. Where is this going to stop?
Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorossiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.
biggerThis would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection.
The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.
...
Novorossiya roughly includes the red and yellow areas in the above map. It also includes the valuable Soviet developed iron ore mines and factories of Kryvyi Rih [Krivoy Rog] west of the Dnieper river.
My best hunch is that the Russian government has come to the same conclusion.
Yves continues her outlook:
But the other reason for being maddeningly slow, aside from getting better data, is that with hyperinflation and a highly-likely baked-in economic collapse in non-Russian controlled Ukraine, is that things may get so bad that having Russia come in and take charge may start looking less bad to many of the locals. Again, the longer Russia hangs back and lets more of Ukraine drift into failed state territory, the more this dynamic has the potential to kick in.
I am not saying any of these are givens. But Russia still needs to move carefully and deliberately if it is to increase its odds of having what is left of Ukraine not merely be neutral as the result of an imposed settlement, but have a very sizeable majority of its citizens be so sick of war and war-related privations that they will be highly resistant to NATO and CIA efforts to turn them back to being its pawns.
Yves's ruminations point to a quite plausible longer term state of the Russian operation.
It will continue to be a very slow walk for Russia which will give the West time to come back to its senses.
This also fits well with the latest RAND paper on the war which urges for early U.S. negotiations with Russia and for finding a long term security agreement to prevent a future deterioration of East-West relations into a larger war.
Posted by b on February 13, 2024 at 16:30 UTC | Permalink
next page »Thanks for the post b.
Your description of the fall of the Ukraine domino in our civilization war is the truth that is not being spoken by the MSM and much appreciated.
Your discussion of what comes as a result of the fall of Ukraine, IMO, needs to be looked at in the context of all of empires efforts to retain unipolar control of finance. The leading to a bigger war scenario is just empire saying they will threaten extinction more than currently.
The fall of Ukraine will effect Occupied Palestine, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Germany.....dominos are going to fall
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 13 2024 16:50 utc | 3
10 year anniversary
It is now over 10 years from the start of the conflict, It is thus time to review old analysis and prognosis and see how they align with later developments. I offer my thoughts from February 7, 2014. Pay attention to the bolded parts.
On the situation in Ukraine (February 7, 2014)Yanukovych can not order the police to use batons on the rioters because of fears of Western economic sanctions. Not only sanctions, but direct military aggression, using terrorist insurgents. In the current situation, even light bludgeoning and arrests are impossible. The fact is, the situation would require armored military forces brought to Euromaidan Square in 1989 Tienanmen style. This is impossible, as it would lead to direct military threats from the West .
Yanukovych will only act after he gets the necessary security guarantees from Russia. A guarantee that Russia will secure the Ukrainian economy in case of EU and U.S. economic sanctions, and assurance that the Russian armed forces will secure Ukrainian airspace against a Western "no fly zone".
Putin can not provide the security guarantees before the end of the Sochi Olympics .
We should therefore expect accelerating provocation from the West as long as the Olympic Games continue. What happens after the Olympic is beyond predictable.
***
From the point of view of Western geopolitical strategy it would be very desirable to see Soviet tanks in the streets of Kiev. In the absence of Soviet tanks Russian tanks will do – if not in Kiev, then at the very least in the Crimea. Western strategy is the same as that in Afghanistan, get Russia tied up to its own Vietnam. Russia must be internationally condemned and isolated from the "international community."
For a successful outcome it is not even necessary to see Russian troops in Ukraine. The mere fact that Yanukovych uses force to disperse the demonstration is a symbolic Soviet tank - for the West and its presstitute media every blow of the truncheon represents Putin's tyranny and Stalin's crimes. In a way the Western media is right, as even the whacking would happen in the shelter of "Putin's" nuclear umbrella.
Looks like my worst fears have come true. Europe will now be divided by a new Iron Curtain and face 50 years of Cold War.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Feb 13 2024 16:56 utc | 4
The slow russian advances also de-incentives western investment in weapon production. A sudden Russian advance to europe would scare them into doing it. Hanging back keeps them pacified and hopeful they can win on the cheap.
I've been looking for new factories opening up but I don't see any, just longer backlogs to existing factories with extra shifts, particularly with US artillery shell production.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 13 2024 16:59 utc | 5
I agree, the eminently logical approach when the opponent is doomed and ever weakening. Let it bleed out, don't provoke it into lashing out while still strong. I would do a general offensive, slow motion, just keep chewing them up, but taking ground here and there as it becomes easy. They will collapse, too much damage has been inflicted.
BTW, nice to see you got off your a$$ and did some work today! (that would be a JOKE- I feel constructive if I post a piece every two weeks or so)
Thanks B!
The fall of Ukraine will effect Occupied Palestine, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Germany.....dominos are going to fall
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 13 2024 16:50 utc | 3
You have the 'psycho' part right...
Posted by: El Oso de Los Llanos | Feb 13 2024 17:02 utc | 7
I think the whole point about Ukraine is to make space for new settlers.
The war is just a single little event in a chain of events, that depopulated Ukraine from 51Mio to 20Mio today, and of these 20Mio are 11Mio Sovjet-Citizens now Pernsioners.
It's like conquering America by European settlers, but without having trouble with Indianers.
These 9 Mio still living Ukrainiens, 1 Mio is in the army and will die, and minimum 50% are ready to leave asap if somehow possible.
There will be new settlers in Ukraine. Which type of settler, that's what you have to figure out by yourself - but it's not so hard to understand if you look at an ethnic map of 1894 from Odessa, for instance.
Posted by: Klaus | Feb 13 2024 17:04 utc | 8
This is an incredbly story about the Maidan and the USA using youth to create and Ukrainian Arab spring and infiltrating the political establishment and the police- intelligence forces:
https://laisvas.info/aiskeja-a-butkeviciaus-vaidmuo-per-kruvina-perversma-kijeve/
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 13 2024 17:06 utc | 9
Point of no return for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
LARGE frontline summary of February 5-12, 2024 from journalist Marat Khairullin (text version)
The most important thing that happened this week at the front became clear - the Armed Forces of Ukraine are finally losing control.
https://t.me/voenkorkhayrullin/2158
https://t.me/voenkorkhayrullin/2159
https://t.me/voenkorkhayrullin/2160
https://t.me/voenkorkhayrullin/2161
https://t.me/voenkorkhayrullin/2162
https://t.me/voenkorkhayrullin/2163
Posted by: marat posts | Feb 13 2024 17:07 utc | 10
okay, "the Ukrainian frontline will break rather sooner - within weeks - than later" -- skip forward to a "longer term state of the Russian operation" with the patient on life support and failing organs.
strange times ahead.
Posted by: annie | Feb 13 2024 17:08 utc | 11
fascinating b... i hope it works out.. i can't see usa backing down, but maybe they will have to.. that is my prayer for ending this whole mess that never had to happen.. ultimately it is for the better and the world has changed since this began - whatever the start date..
Posted by: james | Feb 13 2024 17:11 utc | 12
It will continue to be a very slow walk for Russia which will give the West time to come back to its senses.This also fits well with the latest RAND paper on the war which urges for early U.S. negotiations with Russia and for finding a long term security agreement to prevent a future deterioration of East-West relations into a larger war.
Which is what Russia was asking for before this nightmare unfolded.
Posted by: Mike R | Feb 13 2024 17:17 utc | 13
Posted by: Who Cares | Feb 13 2024 16:41 utc | 1
It is actually logical. If the Russians see AFU throwing more stuff in close contact toward them, they would probably slow down any existing offensive efforts and hunker down.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 13 2024 17:25 utc | 14
"In a sign that a new escalation of the global war between the major powers is being prepared, newly-installed Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun pledged last month to support Russia in its war with the US-led NATO military alliance in Ukraine."
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/02/13/fpsx-f13.html
So, this site shares a lot of the delusional thinking of US imperialism. That China supported Russia with "no limits" was clear as day to sane observers at least a year ago, if not from the outset of the SMO. Oddly, this "vanguard" party didn't seem to pick up on that.
Nonetheless, this article is interesting in that it picks up on a quantitative change in the direction of more direct and open Chinese military support for Russia in Ukraine.
The conclusion of the article also shows a serious problem with this site in terms of it's political line on Russia/China.
They conclude: "The decisive question is mobilizing the working class internationally in a socialist anti-war movement. While the imperialist powers are targeting Russia and China, states that descend from the October 1917 Russian and 1949 Chinese revolutions, such a movement can only be based on opposition to the Chinese Stalinist and Russian ex-Stalinist regimes. Since their restoration of capitalism in China and dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1989-1991, they cannot and will not make any appeal to workers."
While it's true the RC of Russia/China is also a bourgeois elite with opposing interests to the working masses of both countries, both countries are also being preyed on and attacked by US imperialism. In light of that I think any class conscious worker would call for a critical (of the class nature of both states) support for Russia/China in it's struggle with the clear enemy of workers (humanity, really) internationally: US imperialism.
What say you, barfolk?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 17:28 utc | 15
I should think that any postwar Russian plans include a couple of protected installations near the Polish and Romanian borders where hypersonic missiles could be housed. These would serve as a counter force to the missile installations aimed at Russia in Poland and Romania.
Such forces would deter further adventures on the Russian border and into a Ukrainian rump state. Having every European capital within five minutes of a launch from Russian missile batteries in western Ukraine would serve a very noble purpose
Posted by: posa | Feb 13 2024 17:30 utc | 16
I suspect Syrsky's Russian origin makes him a potential scapegoat if things go wrong for Kiev, as is likely. His greater militancy has obvious psychological roots - he has something to prove. But at the end of the day he can be dismissed as another katsap.
Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 13 2024 18:05 utc | 17
The bottom line.
As seen over 2 years.
Ukrainian leadership/oligarchy don't care about the casualties.
Completely irrelevant details.
That's the real horror.
And if you recall the economic direction of the Ukraine since it inception in 91
The removal of Ukrainians has been been actively pursued.
It's not about the ejection of Russians
It's the removal of the Slavic population.
Posted by: jpc | Feb 13 2024 18:10 utc | 18
IF Russia knows the staging areas of troops as in Selidovo, why not cut the rail links in and out?
A tactical nuke is another option. Leaves the area irradiated and unsafe for any sort of human activity.
These cockroaches should have stayed behind the cupboards.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 13 2024 18:10 utc | 19
What are the effects of a slow walk vs. major moves on the US presidential election?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 13 2024 18:12 utc | 20
The change to Syrski might be the reason that the Russians slowed down. Zaluzny was preparing to bail, that would have meant no more (or a lot less) bodies for the grinder so why bother keeping the place under Ukrainian control. It is expected that Syrski will sacrifice every single soldier he can get to keep Avdeevka thus incentivizing the Russians to keep the grinder going.
Posted by: Who Cares | Feb 13 2024 16:41 utc | 1
Syrsky is an ethnic Russian career officer, which is probably why he was appointed to replace Zaluzhny. As near as I can tell, he's not a Banderite, which suggests that he's a logical candidate for taking the blame for the collapse of Ukraine. He also has a solid history of losing, which fits that purpose well. The question is, is he a consistent loser because he's incompetent, or is he incompetent because he's a deep sleeper agent of the RF? If the latter, of course RF will allow him to feed Nazis into the cauldron. If the latter, he may well be the source of targeting data on the Nazis just blown up at Selidovo, which strike has had the bonus effect of spurring a massive witch-hunt to search for 'Russian spotters' in the civilian population. In current conditions, this kind of move has to alienate even more of the population.
I don't know enough about Syrsky to know where his true loyalties lie, and neither, I imagine, do the CIA and Zelensky's clique- although what Zelensky knows or doesn't know is immaterial. There have to be questions in the minds of western controllers, whatever the underlying truth might be. Traitor Syrsky is a mighty convenient narrative to explain the loss of Ukraine, whether it's true or not. Meanwhile, the top Nazi is going to be ambassador to Perfidious Albion, where he may end up running the Ukrainian Government in Exile. Elensky, neither a nazi nor a military man, is not qualified for the job.
Anyway, with or without Syrsky's connivance, the AFU is heading toward a series of major defeats in the near future, and Syrsky is likely to be the scapegoat.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 13 2024 18:12 utc | 21
What say you, barfolk?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 17:28 utc | 15
I say the Fourth International are a bunch of bourgeois cucks.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 13 2024 18:15 utc | 22
The future events in Ukraine are foreshadowed by the post Gaddafi situation in Libya, where they are waiting for Godot.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 13 2024 18:17 utc | 23
China is increasingly standing up to support Russia because the US has already opened up an active front on China’s border and increasing military activity. The hope is to get a bunch of Taiwanese killed and create a Cold War wall in Asia.
Posted by: Bob | Feb 13 2024 18:20 utc | 24
Ahenobarbus @ 15
What say you, barfolk?
Chinese volunteers go through preparation at the Russian Northern Military District
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 13 2024 18:23 utc | 25
Looks like my worst fears have come true. Europe will now be divided by a new Iron Curtain and face 50 years of Cold War.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Feb 13 2024 16:56 utc | 4
Good stuff. Pretty much my thoughts during the Maidan- Yanukovich screwed either way, and Russia having to decide what kind of screwing to take. The situation within the RF, with Georgia, with Chechnya, and Belarus were all unresolved. Russian tanks in Kiev was a non-starter. Securing Crimea was the limit of their objective capabilities at the time- a condition Putin was already working hard to correct.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 13 2024 18:24 utc | 26
The Russian army cut Avdiivka in half, cutting off the south of the city!
▪️Now the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern part of the city is under great threat. Resources working for the Armed Forces of Ukraine write about this in a panic, publishing maps of the changed situation.
▪️Also before that, the Ukrainian military correspondent reported that the "Road of Life" had been cut by Russian fighters.
▪️Now, on the maps of the enemy, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation occupied the fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the motor depot and reached the edge of Avdiivka - Industrial Avenue, now advancing in both directions on the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine divided into 2 parts.
▪️In the morning, Ukrainian analysts reported that "in the northern part of Avdiivka, there are battles in the area of western dachas, a motor depot, along Chistyakova Street and the lane of the 50th anniversary of Avdiivka Coke."
▪️"In the south of Avdiivka, Russian troops continue assault operations along Soborna Street, Chernyshevsky Street and in the area of the Vynogradniki 2 garden partnership.
Now, much of this is under the control of the Russian army.
Posted by: Avdiivka | Feb 13 2024 18:31 utc | 27
Syrsky, unlike Zaluzhny, has a reputation of a commander who does not stop at heavy losses on the battlefield. This blood-thirst bastard would clean up of what's left with a heart beating in Ukraine.
Posted by: AI | Feb 13 2024 18:36 utc | 28
Now, much of this is under the control of the Russian army.
Posted by: Avdiivka | Feb 13 2024 18:31 utc | 27
Well, it looks Syrsky might have to feed the remaining Nazis into a different cauldron. It's okay, there will be plenty more, soon.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 13 2024 18:36 utc | 29
The important part of changes from Zalnutzy to Sursky, The Butcher of Ukraine:
In 2013 he was stationed at NATO's headquarters in Brussels.[15].
In an earlier wiki article he was mentioned as the liason ofiicer from Ukraine to Nato. This has now dissapeared.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Syrskyi
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 11 2024 20:28 utc | 57
18 commanders of the Ukrainian Military has been fired.
It is now Nato Gereral Sursky, with his loyal nato officers.
Remember that the US assigned Gen. Aguto to Ukraine i mid Dec. He has not been seen since.
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 13 2024 18:37 utc | 30
What say you, barfolk?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 17:28 utc | 15
Stalin was right and the Trotzkyists at wsws are wrong.
Sometimes they have some good takes, but it's astonishing how difficult it is for those Trotzkyists to actually apply some dialectical thought.
Posted by: Roland | Feb 13 2024 18:40 utc | 31
https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1755938152626172237
Some good has come from Tucker Carlson's VP interview.
At least there appears to be some media in the UK who pretends to be adversarial?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 13 2024 18:44 utc | 32
Petri Krohn @ 4
Honzo @ 26
Looks like my worst fears have come true. Europe will now be divided by a new Iron Curtain and face 50 years of Cold War.
Way back at the start of the SMO a barfly, I don't remember who, noted that this time all the resources, capital, industry, and innovation are on the other side of the Iron Curtain. The entire collective west will turn into Soviet era Albania. Most of the UK and USA are already half way there, been barreling down that road since Thatcher and Reagan, only reason they've stayed afloat and kept their populations placated through the decades of de-industrialization is because of low margin global mega chains selling cheap goods thanks to the - resources, capital, industry, and innovation in the RoW. Now, just wait until the wall is finished and the Clown Kings slam the gate shut, pull up the castle's draw bridge, and realize they left all the provisions, water, and food back in the town, in hands of the barbarians.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 13 2024 18:48 utc | 33
AI @ 28
Syrsky, unlike Zaluzhny, has a reputation of a commander who does not stop at heavy losses on the battlefield. This blood-thirst bastard would clean up of what's left with a heart beating in Ukraine.
It worked for Grant and Stalin. Of course they were on the right side, at least the side history was tending. The people running Ukraine aren't' giving up, doesn't seem like the population is either, it's going to get uglier, for everyone, good guys and bad guys alike. That's what USA putting Syrsky in charge is signaling. No more Mr. nice guy, the Russians will respond in kind. Myself, I'm about uglied out.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 13 2024 19:00 utc | 34
"This also fits well with the latest RAND paper on the war which urges for early U.S. negotiations with Russia and for finding a long term security agreement to prevent a future deterioration of East-West relations into a larger war."
The RAND paper is full of the usual bullshit.
a) They want Ukraine intact so in the future they can try again.
b) Want to keep extracting rent from what they can in Ukraine.
c) Freeze the conflict to protect a) and b) and then pivot towards aggression against China.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Feb 13 2024 19:03 utc | 35
Trump's statement that the US will lose hundreds of billions $$ if Russia does a deal with Ukraine that excludes the US tells all. The US wants to keep the agricultural land and port of Odessa, protect investments of Western agribusiness and the ability to extract rents from Ukraine. Also preserve the opportunity to rearm a subjugated client state on Russia's border. I predict they will get nothing.
Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 13 2024 19:23 utc | 36
@21 top Nazi is going to be ambassador to Perfidious Albion,
He goes to Albion and he will likely be Skripled with Novachuck? Terrible. They will have to impose more sanctions on Russia and start confiscating Russian owned rubber duckies all over the world.
Freeland will tell her black (faced) pet poodle to raise a massive tantrum
Posted by: Angelo | Feb 13 2024 19:24 utc | 37
Thanks b, many things are still unclear, really.
Could it be, that it is a Ukrainian last war cry?
Disturbing the siege of Avdeyevka, temporary for a few weeks, but losing gradually everywhere else, while winning fat bill from the Congress? Is the deal with Sysrsky just a temporary solution until total NATO takeover of the Ukrainian paramilitaries and Dad's armies, after RF is done with a few strong-points? Next Bakh/Avde is Toretsk, near by, having significant defensive strategic point, high at the right side of the river. Chasov Yar well fortified, uphill. Arty base and some more.
Syrsky hates NATO doctrine and standards. He was, after all, a Gerasimov's student.
I do not believe that Ukrainians are so, so depleted, as surely some serious armor numbers sent vs. destroyed/verified are not corresponding well. It seems that much of the front-line in-fillings are more and more LEGO-ed with women, mid aged, mixed with foreigners, with certainly more on the way. Ex NATO-NATO soldiers, as an excuse.
I am sure that SAS is hunted around too, it is a matter of time for the UK public sake. "Gotta sell the War, Humphrey."
Where are Challengers and Abrams, where is Armata?
Did RF just wiped a few Ukrainian BTGs with 3 consecutive strikes?
Sounds like gloves off, indeed.
But, no cigar. GPS jamming stopped over Poland and Baltics.
It is also possible that somewhere someone, deep down, talks in the background with Kremlin. Just an assumption.
Posted by: whirlX | Feb 13 2024 19:42 utc | 38
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President is urgently preparing a response to the critical situation in Avdiivka, due to the loss of the main supply artery for the city garrison.The reserves that arrived as reinforcements were unable to change the situation; the enemy concentrated serious forces and maintained control over the situation.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21648
Posted by: Down South | Feb 13 2024 19:48 utc | 39
Putin said "demilitarize and denazifu".
Two ways to fulfill that goal, destroy or divide.
The strike was done to paint a stark contrast in blood, between former CiC and CiC now, to cause internal division, thereby achieving "denazification and demilitarization" without destruction of Ukraine.
Watch next as rumors begin to swirl that Syrskyi is working with the Russians, and then evidence planted
Zelenski will know it is false, and Zaluhzny will know it is true. A left right divide forms between right sektor and neoliberal.
A change in leadership would not mean victory if unity persisted.
On Feb 22, 2022, Russian high command launched plan A, bur had plans B through Z lined up in the likely event A failed.
Z
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 13 2024 19:50 utc | 40
The bigger question is how does US respond to the loss in Ukraine?
Militarily they can't do a thing. They've already shot their wad. They also do not know how to accept defeat. I don't expect nukes to start flying, I will expect something truly amazingly stupid.
Replying to several posts above. Last time I witnessed the Fourth International in action they led demos into kettles. Purely working with the police. And they even looked like cops. Why anyone was so foolish as to follow them beats me. (I led my immediate group to safety as it was fucking obvious it was a trap.)
Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 13 2024 19:53 utc | 41
Defusing Ukraine the article in the National review on Feb 2022 is how these people think.
https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2022/02/21/defusing-ukraine/
A right wing fuck fest.
Tamás Orbán, columnist and political analyst, currently working as a senior research fellow at the Budapest-based think tank, the Danube Institute.
John O'Sullivan O'Sullivan served as vice president and executive editor of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty from 2008 to 2012. Since 2017, he has been president of the Danube Institute, a Fidesz government-financed think tank based in Budapest, Hungary, and a member of the board of advisors for the Global Panel Foundation, an NGO that works behind the scenes in crisis areas around the world. An adviser To Margaret Thatcher and wrote her memoirs.A former editor of National Review from 1988 to 1997.
Nothing comes out of Orban's mouth unless The Danube Institute says so. The Danube Institute is The neoconservative hub of Eastern Europe. Ironically someone Conservative Putin thought he could trust.
The RAND paper is just a continuation of that right wing GROUPTHINK as things progress. As they try and come up with a new strategy to shaft the Russians.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Feb 13 2024 19:55 utc | 42
What say you, barfolk?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 17:28 utc | 15
I say the Fourth International are a bunch of bourgeois cucks.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 13 2024 18:15 utc | 22
Tend to agree after watching them go full Dem on culture questions once trump got elected and now currently calling for him to be removed from the ballot in the name of "democracy". And their immediate vilification of Russia at the outset of the SMO and their continued warmings to Russia about the power of US imperialism, etc, etc.
What say you, barfolk?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 17:28 utc | 15
Stalin was right and the Trotzkyists at wsws are wrong.
Sometimes they have some good takes, but it's astonishing how difficult it is for those Trotzkyists to actually apply some dialectical thought.
Posted by: Roland | Feb 13 2024 18:40 utc | 31
Stalin and his epigones were unwitting agents of imperialism and thus pissed away an empire putting Russia and the world in a very precarious situation.
As for failed dialectic: true in regard to the leadership, but not the whole membership, of this little group. I often wonder if agents are among their leadership based on some of the wild (and always favorable to imperialism) turns in the line since trump.
Ahenobarbus @ 15
What say you, barfolk?
Chinese volunteers go through preparation at the Russian Northern Military District
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 13 2024 18:23 utc | 25
Awesome link! Thanks, light-years.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 19:55 utc | 43
@Ahenobarbus @ 15
WSWS have some interesting articles, but I agree: boy, are they delusional.
They are a microscopic left sect.
Every article ends with boilerplate: "And now the workers must rise up in their mighty hordes and throw off their chains to enter Earthly Paradise!"
Posted by: JulianJ | Feb 13 2024 19:58 utc | 44
Below is one of the parts of the latest NATO exercises running through June as I recall
BRILLIANT JUMP II 13 - 28 February PolandBrilliant Jump II, linked to Steadfast Defender 2024, and led by Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum, aims to test and train the NATO Response Force (NRF) 2024 in planning and executing early deployments. It focuses on assessing the readiness of the NRF during peacetime and when on stand-by, ensuring the force can promptly respond if any situation arises.
What could go wrong?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 13 2024 20:05 utc | 45
Another great piece. Your day offs are fruitful!
I continue to suspect that, just as cracks are appearing in the Ukrainian high command of late, so also will increasingly manifest internal turmoil in the leading Western nations driving all this. This is why Putin et alia patiently await their allies within the Western nations to effect a 'reset' as their engendered mayhem steadily unfolds. Once the Western nations effect a major sea-change, then Ukraine's situation might be like night and day, making things like denazification and demilitarization a snap.
That said, recently I made I Ching calculations for Moscow, Beijing - and soon Jerusalem - based on the time of the New Moon in each particular location. (Linked to the name Scorpion in this post.)
The classic text's result for Moscow says this:
"Derived: 40 Deliverance
[Legge:] Liberation finds advantage in the southwest.
When the operation is completed, return to stability brings good fortune; if the operations are incomplete, best to finish them quickly."
Sounds like it's time to end the SMO, no?
(The Primary is 32 - Enduring, Holding Fast, changing line 3).
My overall Judgment is:
"After suffering many setbacks and depredations
Russia’s spirit has endured and will continue to sacrifice and hold fast
Peace develops from steadily devolving authority to municipal leadership
Releasing a flood of freedom ‘neath lightning flashes of joy ascendant
All involving the fearless proclamation of Truth aligned with God in Heaven."
(It’s a Wood Dragon Year: sparks might fly!)
The Russian army launched a powerful missile attack on a large concentration of Ukrainian infantry at the Selidovo military training ground. It is reported that up to 1,500 enemy soldiers were hit. They were supposed to be sent to Avdeevka as reinforcements.
According to Ukrainian information resources, the personnel of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine finished combat coordination on military equipment at the Selidovo training ground. The recruits were being trained to be sent as a reserve to Avdeevka, where fierce fighting is currently taking place.
According to preliminary data, the Russian army launched two strikes, both of them using cluster munitions. At the time of the first strike, according to preliminary data, there were up to 1,500 of the Ukrainian armed Forces at the training ground. This strike hit soldiers who were densely packed on the site.
The second strike of the Russian Armed Forces was delivered an hour later, when a mass evacuation of survivors began at the training ground, and a lot of personnel had gathered to help the wounded.
The dead and seriously wounded, military channels note, have been taken to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), then by an evacuation train to Dnipro (Dnepropetrovsk).
The military recalls that this is not the first time that it has been sent to this “unlucky” training ground. In August 2023, it was also hit by our Iskanders ,when the command staff of the 72nd Brigade of the Armed Forces of th Ukraine was there at the control point and the personnel of the 53rd brigade of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine.
Banderites now searching for a marketplace or bakery to strike back in retaliation.
Posted by: Moscow Exile | Feb 13 2024 20:13 utc | 47
The bigger question is how does US respond to the loss in Ukraine?
Posted by: oldhippie | Feb 13 2024 19:53 utc | 41
Just keep reading the manure that comes out of the Danube Institute in Eastern Europe and the Heritage Foundation in the US. The stink of the right that poisons the globe has been written in black and white for decades. Their shite is so bad it has made them jump the shark and even now call the WEF Marxists lol.
Ideologues - With followers who struggle to tell the difference between their own arsehole and their elbow.
A complete right wing horror show and still try and blame the left by repeating the words "radical left" 30 times in every interview. The voters inject it into their veins like Heroin. As they are moved from con trick into another. Call themselves patriots.
About as plastic and false as the Superbowl. A set of disco lights to keep the flock entertained.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Feb 13 2024 20:13 utc | 48
One of the great bloggers. Can’t remember if it was b, Simplicius or Andrei M described the post Uki counter oink Russian strategy as a “caffeinated SMO”. Attrition plus major and vicious attacks on the rear.
Dima of Military Summary Channel…
“Hello my dear friends!”
…Mentioned that Russia has launched 468 FAB bombs in the first ten days of February
Posted by: Anunnaki | Feb 13 2024 20:16 utc | 49
Ahenobarbus @ 15
What say you, barfolk?
Will continue following the end of the world in here, with the trusty Bastille 1789 single malt, East German bought chilled Afri-Cola, ice and filtered soda-water. Brother Ali as a background music.
Posted by: whirlX | Feb 13 2024 20:20 utc | 50
A huge number of Ukrainian militants have been killed in the DPR town of Selidovo, occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The incident in Selidovo was reported by a fugitive Ukrainian blogger Anatoly Shariy in his Telegram channel. He noted that confirmations of this information are already beginning to come in.
“Information about personnel having been hit at a training ground is beginning to be confirmed from a number of sources. There were at least two strikes, the second one hit those who had oame to pull out the dead and wounded” Shari said.
He later added: “4 fragmentation bomb pods, 1 rocket with 2 pods, 2 rockets with 2 pods”.
A number of sources also confirmed the information about the strike on Selidovo. Iskander-M OTRK missiles were used. On the spot, the war correspondents continue to give details.
“At 11:30, an Iskander missile system with cluster bomb missiles was launched at a Ukrainian Armed Forces training area. The strikes lasted for 20 minutes. At the time of the strike, there were up to 1,500 forcibly mobilized Ukrainian Armed Forces at the training ground. Later, after the beginning of the collection and evacuation of the wounded / survivors, a missile strike with cluster bombs was repeated”, military commander Vladimir Romanov wrote in his Telegram channel.
Writing on the wall?
20:43 02/13/2024 (updated: 20:56 02/13/2024)
“Ready to leave my position.” Syrsky has made an unexpected statement
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine Syrsky has said that he was ready to retreat in order to save soldiers
MOSCOW, 13 February – RIA Novosti. The Ukrainian army will retreat if it is necessary for the preservation of personnel, said in an interview with ZDF AFU chief Oleksandr Syrskyy, who has been nicknamed the “Butcher” because of his heavy military losses.
According to him, the Russian army had gone on the offensive along the entire front line, and the AFU have been forced to launch a defensive operation.
Posted by: Moscow Exile | Feb 13 2024 20:21 utc | 51
I would modify that map to include a generous buffer zone along the Russian border up to the Byelorussian border.
While there it makes sense to hold a bank of the river too..
Posted by: SOS | Feb 13 2024 20:22 utc | 52
Russia ought to save some cluster munitions for DC.
It would be awesome to see the entire Congress die in the most painful way possible. Burned alive, dismembered, etc.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 13 2024 20:27 utc | 53
All that's happening reinforces the hypothesis that Russia's preferred trajectory from the start was a slow and contained operation, for multiple reasons, among which are avoiding a situation where the "crazies" are given full leash, giving new alliances and multipolarity maximum time to evolve, giving the West maximum time to continue multidimensional decline, weaken NATO infrastructure, demilitarize and denazify as much as possible, maximize gain of military skills and knowledge, avoid demonstrating and revealing as much as possible new Russian military capabilities, give maximum time for Ukr population to understand and reject political class, give maximum time for Russian population to psychologically separate from the West, don't give the West a reason to categorically reject its current elite, which play an important role in its decline, etc.
Posted by: Sal | Feb 13 2024 20:29 utc | 54
"B", forgive me for publishing news from Brazil here. A video was discovered of a ministerial meeting to plan a coup d'état (that's right: they recorded everything on video). Below is a short report with a link and everything, duly translated into English!
Published by Caique Lima
Updated on February 8, 2024 at 1:51 pm
Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), removed the confidentiality of the coup meeting of former president Jair Bolsonaro, advisors and ministers held on July 5, 2022. The record was seized from a computer belonging to Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, former aide-de-camp of the then president.
The meeting was used by the then president to create narratives and guide fake news against the electoral system. At the time, he suggested fraud at the polls and in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), threatened to carry out a coup d'état and admitted that he predicted a defeat for Lula in the dispute.
The video supported the decision of the magistrate who authorized the operation against the former president and his allies this Thursday (8). According to Moraes, the meeting “clearly reveals the coup dynamic within the top leadership of the government, with all those investigated who took part speaking out”.
With several outbursts of fury and swearing for more than an hour, the then president threatened to “take the field using his Army and his 23 ministers”; attacks court ministers, saying they were receiving “millions of dollars” to rig the elections and guarantee Lula’s victory; and even offers a confidential PF inquiry into electronic voting machines to ministers.
The former president defended carrying out a coup d'état before the elections because Supreme Court ministers were “preparing everything for Lula to win in the first round, through fraud”. He also claimed that the victory of the PT member would generate “chaos in Brazil” and turn the country into “a great guerrilla”.
In addition to Bolsonaro, ministers Anderson Torres (Justice), Augusto Heleno (GSI), Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira (Defense), Mário Fernandes (General Secretariat) and Walter Braga Netto (former Civil House) participated in the coup-friendly meeting. .
All of them were targets of PF operations, which carried out four preventive arrest warrants and 33 search and seizure warrants. Precautionary measures were also imposed, such as the prohibition of contact between those investigated and the retention of their passports.
Posted by: Willian in The Sky | Feb 13 2024 20:32 utc | 55
Now, in panic mode, one german politician of the CDU (christian democratic union, what is a lie) has pounded out, that Germany has to make new 300bn ( no joke ) debt to reenforce the "Bundeswehr" and to make a preemptive strike on Russia.
One can see, that they are finished like "Fuehrerbunker April 1945"
The Russians may import some Chips and beer and enjoy the show..
Posted by: ableman | Feb 13 2024 20:40 utc | 56
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 19:55 utc | 43
Stalin and his epigones were unwitting agents of imperialism and thus pissed away an empire putting Russia and the world in a very precarious situation.
Wow, that's some statement. Would you be so kind and explain that one to me. Thanks
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Feb 13 2024 20:43 utc | 57
Wow, that's some statement. Would you be so kind and explain that one to me. Thanks
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Feb 13 2024 20:43 utc | 55
Please dont. Sick of off topic Ww ii history, trotsky vs stalinism vs leninism and jewish talmudic theories of intention.
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 13 2024 20:46 utc | 58
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 19:55 utc | 43
Stalin and his epigones were unwitting agents of imperialism and thus pissed away an empire putting Russia and the world in a very precarious situation.
Wow, that's some statement. Would you be so kind and explain that one to me. Thanks
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Feb 13 2024 20:43 utc | 55
Well, it's not the history of communism thread, but by eliminating any effort at an international revolution, misguiding critical revolutionary situations in Germany 1923, China 1929 and Spain during the civil war, then ultimately eliminating the Comintern completely all with the perspective of creating an isolated nation utopia, the USSR ultimately became fatally weak and was ultimately liquidated voluntarily by the last Stalinists led by Gorby. And here we are!
That's just a nutshell summary. I've got more but in deference to the bar, I'll save it unless you've got some particular questions.
Cheers, Clancy!
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 20:51 utc | 59
Posted by: Sal | Feb 13 2024 20:29 utc | 52
Yep, I've been saying that since March, '22.
The thing you leave out is that, in this context, there is no 'west.' This war is fundamentally a war of the US against Europe. By doing everything to claim it is against Russia is what made it work against Europe. They bought the bullshit, and broke their own economies by diving in. Any analysis of the word press economic/international news for the last decade and a half makes it clear- made it clear in the early 2010s- that the US could not sanction Russia or China into collapse and regime change. The 'attempt' to do that was carefully tailored to injure the EU in general and Germany in particular. The sanctions did little harm to Russia, not much to the US, but have devastated Europe. It's not a coincidence. This operation has been working out in the public eye since the Maidan (positioned to cut off Russian energy from Europe) and killing the Iran nuke deal (cut off new source of cheap energy, and keep the Eu away from a new market and major infrastructure projects, resulting in American-style QE by the ECB to 'stabilize' the economy- and make it very delicate and vulnerable to manipulation by the US). The only possible gain from war and saber-rattling against Russia, Iran and China is to isolate EU from them and make it completely dependent on the US hegemon.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 13 2024 20:52 utc | 60
Events are developing very interestingly in Belogorovka. After occupying the filtration station, our troops advanced northwest along Molodezhnaya Street almost to the Orthodox Church. And we almost completely control Lesnaya Street, from which the Village Council is less than 500 meters away.This is one of the areas about which the Ukrainians are silent, meanwhile, the situation here is developing so rapidly that Belogorovka could be surrendered at any moment.
The Ukrainians have already fled here - they simply abandoned some of their positions. If Belogorovka is surrendered, we will reach the Grigorovka-Serebryanka line. This means that we are on the direct road to Seversk. And just like that, an enemy group entrenched in Serebryansky forestry falls into the cauldron.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/88597
Posted by: Down South | Feb 13 2024 20:52 utc | 61
Wow, that's some statement. Would you be so kind and explain that one to me. Thanks
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Feb 13 2024 20:43 utc | 55
Please dont. Sick of off topic Ww ii history, trotsky vs stalinism vs leninism and jewish talmudic theories of intention.
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 13 2024 20:46 utc | 56
Agreed. Sorry dude, but it was requested.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 20:52 utc | 62
ArtemovskMost interesting thing is happening in the Artemovsky direction. At these hours, our army enters the outskirts of Chasov Yar. All the week before last, ours stormed Bogdanovka and entrenched themselves at the Bogdanovka-Old Khromov Cemetery line. And this week from two directions at once - along the railway through the forest and along the Khromovo-Chasov Yar road.
Unexpectedly, we advanced to the Chasov Yar microdistrict, which is located conditionally on the side of Artemovsk, behind the Seversky Donets canal. And now there are active battles in the dacha area. Or on the way to it.
Everyone expected that ours would continue to chew through Bogdanovka, and the Ukrainians threw all their forces there. But ours rolled back a little, dug in properly and unexpectedly struck in a different direction. That is, there is such a build-up.
This maneuver immediately put the enemy in a difficult position (although it was not easy anyway) - the most important village of Ivanovskoye was actually surrounded.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/88598
Posted by: Down South | Feb 13 2024 20:54 utc | 63
Territories that have acceded by vote into Russia cannot be hived off back into a separate Novo Rossyia for political credibility reasons. The other 1922 territories are discontiguous and not particularly viable as a stand alone state.
So I believe that in the absence of a negotiated settlement soon, Russia will complete the liberation of the Oblasts that have currently become part of
Russia. After that, Karkiv could the be next pressure point.
I have the sense that Russia would rather not fight for Odessa, but instead have it voluntarily accede after a peace deal is struck with Keiv. This would bolster the Russian contention that all the significantly Russia regions prefer being part of Russia without coercion.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Feb 13 2024 20:55 utc | 64
@Ahenobarbus @ 15
WSWS have some interesting articles, but I agree: boy, are they delusional.
They are a microscopic left sect.
Every article ends with boilerplate: "And now the workers must rise up in their mighty hordes and throw off their chains to enter Earthly Paradise!"
Posted by: JulianJ | Feb 13 2024 19:58 utc | 44
So true. But for the current leadership, they could become a real boy. Very close to correct in most of the overview analysis. They're way overdue for a split. I know that's third rail amongst Marxist, but it's the only thing that could save the SEP from it's utter impotence.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 20:56 utc | 65
@Honzo | Feb 13 2024 20:52 utc | 58
This war is fundamentally a war of the US against Europe.I totally agree, it is obvious.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 13 2024 21:05 utc | 66
The best Russian strategy should be to attack Kyiv again to take it. This will force all Ukrainian troops to rush to their doomed capital city to save it. That presents Russia with the opportunity to decimate Ukrainian troops and advance along Avdiivka and Odessa.
Posted by: Jason | Feb 13 2024 21:05 utc | 67
"Zelenski demands constant attacks on Russian forces and no retreat of Ukrainian forces until absolutely necessary. Syrski is willing to deliver on that even as history says that he is unlikely to be successful"
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." - Napoleon Bonepart
Posted by: Brian Bixby | Feb 13 2024 21:10 utc | 68
The war game names were always idiotic but at least they were macho. Brilliant Jump? Sounds like a sports commentator's comment watching figure skating. Woke goes to war.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 13 2024 21:11 utc | 69
Posted by: Moscow Exile | Feb 13 2024 20:13 utc | 46
Russians taking a leaf out of the Rhodesian play book I see.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 13 2024 21:13 utc | 70
Apparently, in the Chasov Yar / Ivanovske direction, Russiant troops have advanced through the forest west and bypassed three strong AFU defense belts which are on the field to the south of the forest belt. There is now fighting in the immediate east of Chasov Yar, if they hold it then it will put effectively all those belts and Ivanovske into a cauldron.
AFAIK the place where there is fighting now is the top of a hill as well, so important point.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 13 2024 21:27 utc | 71
On China's support of Russia, one must read the 4 February 2022 Joint Declaration made by Xi and Putin to understand its nature, which is something I've been repeating since it was made, link to for barflies's convenience, which is then ignored until the issue arises again as it did today. And since the SMO began, there've been repeat performances of such solidarity, most significantly at the BRI Summit last Fall in Beijing.
Kharkiv is much more reasonable than Odessa.
If you can't/aren't/don't threaten Kherson, than how the hell are you going to go to Odessa? Teleporters? Look at a map. Odessa is way the heck away from the front lines. Yeah...I know you wants it. I want a pony! But first show me something at Kherson. Heck, show me something at Krinky!
Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 13 2024 21:31 utc | 73
Great speech by Irish MEP Clare Daly. The speech is part of Saint Brigid's day celebration, a bank holiday to celebrate Irish women.
https://youtu.be/SGI4CpZHaug?si=qK59rE7FTiHafzAz
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Feb 13 2024 21:33 utc | 74
by Milites | Feb 13 2024 21:13 utc | 68
Well, SpecNaz uses a 'fireforce' tactics, but using helis and a group low height jumps too. Good and efficient Rhodesian tactics, well alive.
Posted by: whirlX | Feb 13 2024 21:38 utc | 75
I remember reading that approaching 18 months combat units effectiveness starts dropping off markedly.
Given that the conflict is approaching 2 year's.
What state are Russian front line forces at.
Yes they are being rotated for more frequently than the Ukrainians.
And large call ups have been taking place.
But I saw this.
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2024/0213/1431853-russian-soldiers-wives-protest/
Posted by: jpc | Feb 13 2024 21:39 utc | 76
@Eoin Clancy | Feb 13 2024 21:33 utc | 72
Thank you. Clare Daly is one of the very few I look up to.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 13 2024 21:42 utc | 77
The best Russian strategy should be to attack Kyiv again to take it. This will force all Ukrainian troops to rush to their doomed capital city to save it. That presents Russia with the opportunity to decimate Ukrainian troops and advance along Avdiivka and Odessa.
Posted by: Jason | Feb 13 2024 21:05 utc | 65
The counter would be don't make sudden moves around crazy people to paraphrase Yves. Still I tend to agree, cut off the head. Imperialism is so overstretched and internally chaotic, what can they do besides nukes? Nonetheless, imperialism may just be that crazy at this point.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 21:51 utc | 78
500+ soldiers rumored to be killed in one Iskander attack
The Russians launched an Iskander attack on the temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Selydove area. Up to 1,500 Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters were concentrated in the strike area. Sources report the largest one-time losses since the start of the special military operation.https://t.me/geromanat/19806
The Russians continue to cut Avdiivka and they have achieved some success. In the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are facing an operational crisis.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 13 2024 22:06 utc | 79
5
asking re factories
note
Rheinmetall building new ammo plant at Unterlüß in northern Germany
Move strengthens Germany’s national security preparedness
Annual production capacity for 200,000 artillery shells, 1,900 tonnes of explosive as well as rocket engines and warheads
€300 million investment; 500 new jobs
Complete German value added chain planned
Posted by: Jo | Feb 13 2024 22:08 utc | 80
our own roger from moa - substack article.. i recommend it.. well stated and very on point..
Zelensky Plays Into the Russian Hands
Posted by: james | Feb 13 2024 22:11 utc | 82
Posted by: whirlX | Feb 13 2024 21:38 utc | 73
I was thinking of Operation Dingo. Wonder if the Ukrainians will use the ZANLA defence, if news of the events start to leak out more?
Posted by: jpc | Feb 13 2024 21:39 utc | 74
One fascinating aspect of battlefield psychology, that favours the defender, is that after two weeks of exposure to combat veteran soldiers become far more focused on self-preservation. Perfect for manning field defences and fortifications, problematic if you are attacking them, a pattern we certainly have seen in the SMO and countered by the traditional methods of combat rotation of units to blood them, but not strip them of their aggression.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 13 2024 21:11 utc | 67
I loved the 80’s German exercise, Panzerbar.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 13 2024 21:27 utc | 69
Recent Russian successes seem to be coming from misdirections and deceptions, suggesting a downgrading of ISR priority for Ukraine or the existing platforms being overwhelmed as the Russians are becoming increasingly adept at electronic ‘spanner’ tossing. Either way with Ukraine seemingly increasingly blind, traditional Soviet tactics could open up previously redundant solutions to the battlefront problems facing the Russian High Command.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 13 2024 22:11 utc | 83
@78 Rheinmetal building new ammo plant
Without the cheap Russian gas whatever weapons they produce is not going to be very competitive on the arms market. It would have to be government subsidized. Germany is already de-industrializing so financing that will be harder and harder as time goes on.
Not to mention where will they get the machine crafting, metal, explosives, resouces.. Europe does not have the supply chain (yet?) for building arms at scale.
Its an idea that looks good on paper if you ask me.
Posted by: One commenter | Feb 13 2024 22:18 utc | 84
By the way, there will be mud very soon. As the article linked by james depicts, it won't be as big of a problem for Russians who are already in Avdeevka and control a paved road, but it might be more of a problem for AFU coming in from the west and north-west of Avdeevka. They will be rolling slow through the mud, and you might expect to see similar 'road of life' (or road of death) as in Bakhmut.
Any offensive planned must also happen very soon.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 13 2024 22:21 utc | 85
If the Biden administration gets slowly convinced that Ukraine will lose the war, and the Village in DC agrees with that, Biden might decide to make lemonade out of that giant lemon, and broker a ceasefire and peace treaty, and declare he deserves a Nobel Peace Price. Trump would crow that he himself deserved credit for having predicted things, and wouldn't try to restart the war once in office.
So, what I postulate above would argue as support for the idea of Russia going slow being the smart move.
If Russia went fast, and succeeded but things were messy, then the West might rise up in outrage, refuse to accept it, and plant the seeds of there being a resistance in newly occupied Russian controlled territory, while funding the rump of Ukraine with missiles that could cause an escalatory response from Russia. The West might take the stance that would in effect make the rump Ukraine akin to what Formosa became when America decided it wouldn't accept the defeat of the Nationalists on the Chinese mainland. Trump would then likely have to more or less live with that.
So that scenario also argues for Russia going slow.
Though on the other hand, a quick collapse of the AFU, while Biden himself looks ready to check out, could be the opportunity for Russia to put itself in an insurmountable position in regards the West. They might choose to memory hole the whole war, call it old news, and as long as Putin promised by way of the back channels to abide by what he's long said publicly, concede the Ukraine.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Feb 13 2024 22:40 utc | 87
After a few days of sprints the Russian attacks have noticeably slowed down. This may be because of increased resistance from the Ukrainian side but could also have plenty of other reasons.
1) It is already several days that the ukrainian army is losing more than 1000 servicemen/day.
2) The Russian army is waiting for the reinforcements to enter the cauldron aka meat grinder of Avdyeyevka.
Posted by: Naive | Feb 13 2024 22:41 utc | 88
Any comments about Dima's latest video on the Military Summary Channel? He suggests hat the 3rd Azov battalion was sent towards Adveeka and then targeted by Russia Missiles. The Russians may have been tipped of by a Zelensky aid.
Dima's rationale is that the 3rd Azov was Zhaluzni's personal guard - now it's out of Kiev and decimated a few kilometres from the front. Zelensky can feel a little safer tonight.
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Feb 13 2024 22:41 utc | 89
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 17:28 utc | 15
wsws are fully deracinated idiots who have been propagandized into replacing any tribal identity a human being would naturally have with ideological abstracts.
The Chinese will do what's best for the Chinese, they haven't been relentlessly beaten over the head with a ZOG 'united colours of Bennington' racemixed dystopoa brainmelting MKUltra torture session, and yes that includes the artificial construct "workers vs capitalists" as a divide and conquer subcategory.
Racial homogeneity has its benefits and you can be rest assured that no chinaman is viewing what is happening in the world through any lens other than a racial one.
The west is so shockingly deracinated that they cannot even bring themselves to consider this simple and obvious fact.
Posted by: ryanggg | Feb 13 2024 22:42 utc | 90
Yesterday when b. published his "You didn't even post today . . " page he included a link to a forbes article about the battle for Avdievka which featured quotes from commander of the Tavriya ukie group. One of these quotes was obscenely descriptive of how the ukie intend to hold the line under the new commander in chief “We strengthen the blocking line, set up additional firing positions and use fresh effective forces,” For those who don't know 'blocking lines' are squads of machine gunners placed well back from ukie troops in order to shoot any ukie grunt who retreats or tries to surrender.
Over the course of this conflict TG has featured several vids of surrendering ukies getting machine gunned from behind their own lines but the ukies along with their amerikan warmonger 'allies' have always denied it, now a ukie army boss talks about it as though it were a perfectly normal feature of a defending force. These types are unabashed self-confessed war criminals but because amerika backs em they will never be charged.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Feb 13 2024 22:48 utc | 91
Posted by: scepticalSOB | Feb 13 2024 22:41 utc | 87
Funnily enough, Putin in the Tucker interview did mention that he once asked Zelensky, why he is supporting neonazi's as his grandfather fought nazis.
And obviously, Zelensky is controlled by the nazis right now. His main job is to advertise Ukraine in foreign lands and bring in more money. If he can't do that, he turns useless, also in the eyes of the nazis.
So obviously, they wouldn't lose a nights sleep over some Azov's leaving for Bandera.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 13 2024 22:49 utc | 92
Why did Macron refuse to visit Ukraine?
Interesting details emerge regarding the death of two “volunteers” from France in Ukraine – winemaker Adrien Bodon de Monis-Pajol and technical specialist Gennady Germanovich. Let me remind you that on February 1, the head of the Kherson administration Prokudin announced the death of two Frenchmen as a result of a strike by the Russian Armed Forces, and later Macron himself spoke about their death. But according to my information, the situations are much more interesting.
First of all, they are not volunteers. This myth was quickly debunked, proving that Germanovich was a highly qualified specialist in the field of security. He was a former soldier of the French Foreign Legion and had close ties not only with representatives of the neo-Nazi movements of France, but also with the Belarusian regiment of Kastus Kalinouski.
Secondly, according to my information, the French were shot on the Odessa-Kyiv highway in the area of the Razdelnyanskaya community in the Odessa region, and not as a result of a Russian drone strike on a car in Berislav, as Prokudin said.
As I learned from my sources in the SBU, those killed as consultants were involved in organizing the visit of a high-ranking delegation from France, and their work included assisting the Ukrainian special services in carrying out some kind of provocation, probably for the subsequent accusation of Russia.
However, having found out the details of the Ukrainian special operation, the French refused further “cooperation” and hurried to Kyiv to urgently leave Ukraine. This refusal cost them their lives.
By a completely non-random coincidence, a few days after their deaths, the French President canceled his visit to Ukraine for security reasons.
I do not rule out that the Ukrainian security forces may soon return to the idea of carrying out a similar provocation, but with the participation of a delegation from another country. Conclusions are drawn and errors are analyzed.
Open source from T-G non-copywrite
src: glp: French media claiming Ukraine planned to kill Macron and blame it on Russia
Posted by: Peten Yop | Feb 13 2024 23:01 utc | 93
“Brilliant Jump II, linked to Steadfast Defender 2024, and led by...”
I’m looking forward to seeing OPERATION ADJECTIVE NOUN after some incompetent programmer breaks the program that’s supposed to substitute the random adjectives and nouns for the placeholders.
Posted by: Dalit | Feb 13 2024 23:03 utc | 94
The situation in Avdyeyevka is worse, much much worse than in Artiomovsk.
Posted by: Naive | Feb 13 2024 23:21 utc | 95
Captain Obvious here again but since this site gets so much traffic I think it is all worth repeating in the most simplest fashion.
Putin was talking to Ukrainians in the Tucker interview. He wants them more than any western ears to understand the shared history and to reject the western influence that is destroying their world. He has even proven this sentiment in how the SMO is functioning.
All of this because in the end they will all be brothers and sisters again and share in the potential future of the Multipolar World.
Posted by: jef | Feb 13 2024 23:24 utc | 96
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 17:28 utc | 15
wsws are fully deracinated idiots who have been propagandized into replacing any tribal identity a human being would naturally have with ideological abstracts.
The Chinese will do what's best for the Chinese, they haven't been relentlessly beaten over the head with a ZOG 'united colours of Bennington' racemixed dystopoa brainmelting MKUltra torture session, and yes that includes the artificial construct "workers vs capitalists" as a divide and conquer subcategory.
Racial homogeneity has its benefits and you can be rest assured that no chinaman is viewing what is happening in the world through any lens other than a racial one.
The west is so shockingly deracinated that they cannot even bring themselves to consider this simple and obvious fact.
Posted by: ryanggg | Feb 13 2024 22:42 utc | 88
Disagree. And by rejecting the material reality of class under capitalism, you sir are obviously and idpol promoter, as surely as any democrat. However, I would guess your idpol is more akin to that of the Ukronazis.
I'm going to guess from your angry intensity, you are also not a member of the bourgeoisie. So, you're a fellow wage slave who sadly carries political water for his cruel capitalist master by denying that class conflict even exists.
Very sad. Very sad indeed.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 13 2024 23:35 utc | 97
"2) The Russian army is waiting for the reinforcements to enter the cauldron aka meat grinder of Avdyeyevka.
Posted by: Naive | Feb 13 2024 22:41 utc | 86"
No they aren't. They Iskandered the reinforcements 30 km from Avdeevka, at training camp early this morning.
Posted by: Mary | Feb 13 2024 23:38 utc | 98
More speculation on the Azov brigade.
It makes a lot of sense, actually. Zaluzhny carefully husbanded the nazi forces, keeping them away from the front. At most, Azov and Aidar were used as blocking detachment and shooting conscripts from behind.
The reason they were husbanded by Zaluzhny, is because the next coup that would occur, would obviously be Poroshenko, backed up by Azov.
Finally, we see Azov, Aidar and other nazis being spent on the front line in order to eliminate or significantly weaken the possibility of a neonazi coup in Ukraine. If there is time for any coups, it would surely be approaching very fast.
The neonazis need to be eliminated one way or the other to have any chance of negotiating with Russia. The fact that, they could be intentionally be setup for a large precision strike (most of them concentrated in a single place) could indicate that someone wants to help the denazification objective to remove that obstacle from negotiations.
However, we will see what happens potentially in the next few weeks. Because Avdeevka is clearly one of the final point where last combat ready units are wasted.
This is only one scenario, there might be a lot of other factors at play too.
In any case, it does somewhat play into the Russian hand.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 13 2024 23:42 utc | 99
Chuck Schumer is working hard for support to Ukraine.
He and his family are Jewish,[12] and he is a second cousin, once removed, of comedian Amy Schumer.[13][14][15] His ancestors originated from the town of Chortkiv, Galicia, in what is now western Ukraine.[16]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Schumer
And Mr. Alexander Vindman, who leaked Trump's converzation with Zelinsky:
He and his family are Jewish,[12] and he is a second cousin, once removed, of comedian Amy Schumer.[13][14][15] His ancestors originated from the town of Chortkiv, Galicia, in what is now western Ukraine.[16]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Vindman
Jews, Zionists and Ukrainian
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 13 2024 23:50 utc | 100
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Posted by: Who Cares | Feb 13 2024 16:41 utc | 1