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February 28, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-064
Comments
In the case of Ukraine, what will “collapse” mean?
First, I think they will be hard pressed to avoid hyperinflation and severe poverty. Once Ukraine loses its value of harming Russia, funding will evaporate. Their economy has been propped up by foreign money to the point that much of their economy doesn’t exist – besides bombing and loss of workers. Loss on the battlefield may mean they can’t collect taxes or enforce laws. Agriculture is in trouble and much of their industry is gone. People will freeze and starve. And much land will be ruined by mines and unexploded munitions.
As for the battlefield, will Russia cut off Odessa and link up with Transnistria? And will Romania/Hungary/Poland establish protectorates (by Russia’s blessing)? Perhaps Russia could benefit Moldova with gaslines and improved Black Sea access.
Another question: will millions more run away to the EU? (or try to)
I think real collapse would involve some cities suing for peace or whole divisions surrendering.
And I could see Zelensky still in charge, no matter what the losses. Nobody stands up to get rid of him.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 29 2024 23:33 utc | 201
Posted by: Milites | Feb 29 2024 22:12 utc | 194
I recognise that the term collapse is not a cliché per se, but that it is interminably used as one, and has been by RF supporters, “experts” and laypersons alike (ref McGregor, Ritter, Dima, Simplicius, et al) for over a year. So all calls of collapse have been, imo, over-egged.
And I don’t argue with your superior military and historical knowledge. But my main issue with use of the term is what will it actually look like, militarily and politically — not so much today, village by village, but when the final conflagration is unavoidable. Will it FORCE negotiations for an unconditional surrender Kiev <> Moscow <> Washington or will the dummies just keep throwing rocks at the Russians within fields of blood and keep talking up “more of this, more of that” until 5000 tanks surround Kiev and Lvov? When will the collapse stfu all those Ukie supporters, or will it just transplant the fighting to different places in different ways. What if a retreating 400k troops from the Donbass are commanded back into Kiev and defend there? War still not “collapsed”.
Despite our clear understanding of segmented AFU collapsing (to some degree in some places), what exactly does that look like to Kiev and Washington? I just don’t see Biden giving in to any threat of collapsing — partial or complete. The last thing he wants is a Western loss before December. The collapse will be resisted for as long as Zelensky has blood in his veins. He’s dug a hole he can never climb out of.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 23:40 utc | 202
At this stage Mercouris is embarrassing himself. Diluting his excellent geopolitical analysis.
” the financial Times says this the financial Times says that ” The financial times, the financial times. The financial times.
These are the people you are supposed to be challenging Alexander the war mongers. Not playing away at neoliberal Utd and using their ” framing ” and ” narratives” regarding money. They have consistently lied about it for decades, ever since the Berlin wall was put on wheels and they changed their official money ” story “.
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Feb 29 2024 23:42 utc | 203
And I could see Zelensky still in charge, no matter what the losses. Nobody stands up to get rid of him.
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 29 2024 23:33 utc | 203
I think, following a complete Russian rout of Ukraine, I think the people would get rid of him, like say Ceaucescu … Mutiny at the palace … a perfect antidote for Maiden 2014 !!! That’s the best result for Moscow — the Ukrainians waking up for a fresh start and correcting 10 years of shit. Perhaps, just perhaps, Yanukovich might reboot Ukraine, a pre-2014 balance of politics. 🙂
But Zelensky is a dead man walking, even now.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 23:52 utc | 204
It’s quite a feat that Duran subscribers went to bed dumber than they woke up this morning. Especially from a channel That provides decent geopolitical analysis.
It is such a sad, sad, sad, sorry state of affairs.
But When you invite an ideologue on your show that simply can’t wait to massage their own and their audience confirmation biases and completely ignore the facts. Then seriously, what do you expect ?
Posted by: Echo Chamber | Mar 1 2024 0:25 utc | 205
For those who find Andrei Martyanov useful as a commentator, notwithstanding his mixing up Macron with Melanchon, have a look at his show with Jacques Baud. Baud is quite popular in France … even though his biography is from the Swiss military (and some NATO).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QirQ0LLM4IQ
Talk about a man crush. ha ha. Andrei can barely contain himself.
Still, Baud is quite brilliant and seems to have a lot in common with Martyanov.
Posted by: N Hanrahan | Mar 1 2024 0:35 utc | 206
Some videos for today.
Russian forces storm enemy positions in the abandoned village of Rabotino on the Zaporozhye front:
https://rutube.ru/video/8ac915b389bc8fc8c0c01b771990e5c8/
Russian Giatsint-S self-propelled howitzer pounds enemy position near the DPR’s Avdeyevka:
https://rutube.ru/video/bde71b78fda61d7138eb2238e6c94926/
Russian drones strike enemy positions and military equipment near Avdeyevka:
https://rutube.ru/video/75dc0594ec35ad4278631d0ac405f8e4/
Russian Lancets strike enemy military equipment on the southern DPR front:
https://rutube.ru/video/07594fb50fe0605d314c53595fc596b0/
Russian Msta-B howitzer opens fire near Donetsk:
https://rutube.ru/video/5be441c0a8df22c92a9fa09d49045811/
Posted by: Nate | Mar 1 2024 2:10 utc | 207
We are a ways from collapse. Expect Russia to set up another meat grinder.
Posted by: JackG | Mar 1 2024 2:25 utc | 208
(at least the Saker had an alibi)
Posted by: joey_n | Feb 29 2024 23:25 utc | 202
The activation and subsequent rise to power of the National Democratic Azerbaijani Popular Front Party in the early 1990s was generally met by Azerbaijan’s Russian population with disbelief, although from the advent of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict local community organizations unanimously supported the Azerbaijan’s position with regard to Nagorno-Karabakh.[11] The deterioration of the Azerbaijani-Russian relations and the ensuing anti-Russian propaganda of the Popular Front played contributed to the concern of the Russian population for its future in Azerbaijan. Although, according to the then Russian ambassador to Azerbaijan Walter Shonia, the new government did not pursue the policy of suppressing the Russian population, the press and some party leaders in their speeches supported the nationalist feelings by mentioning Russia as an ally of Armenia in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and a power which sought to deprive Azerbaijan of its newfound independence.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Azerbaijan
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Mar 1 2024 2:44 utc | 209
@ joey_n | Feb 29 2024 22:32 utc | 196
Okay, I’m not entirely heartless. I think the following
restore Nord stream II at the losers cost
Europe to resume using cheap oil from Russia
would be excellent rewards Russia could grant the Eurotoadies once they reject American hegemony and their own local quislings.
Not holding my breath though.
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 1 2024 3:04 utc | 210
You are born as an an Indian Man
Posted by: spare_truth3 | Feb 29 2024 21:56 utc | 191
Baloney!
born in England. And his parents weren’t directly Indian either:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rishi_Sunak#Early_life_and_education_(1980%E2%80%932001)
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 1 2024 7:44 utc | 211
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 23:40 utc | 204
The collapse can not be resisted.
In Adveeka, apparently, soldiers withdraw on a personal decision, not by others of the command.
In other places there are rumors that some withdrawing Ukraine soldiers have been shot by Ukraine soldiers.
When you have few soldiers, insufficient weapons no logistic, you are not in a position to fight, Zelensky or Sirsky can order whatever they want.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 1 2024 10:12 utc | 212
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 1 2024 3:04 utc | 212
Europe can only recover through dismantlement of EU.
Most likely this will not happen all at once, but EU will fall apart, aided by BRICS influence in Balkans.
A hardcore EU enclave will be left in northern Europe which will become a dystopia, living hell for their citizens. That will eventually cause final dismantling of EU.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 1 2024 10:19 utc | 213
In other places there are rumors that some withdrawing Ukraine soldiers have been shot by Ukraine soldiers.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 1 2024 10:12 utc | 214
Azov was said to be tasked as barrier troops. ( cosy job )
In Avdiivka they seem to have been the first running.
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 1 2024 10:33 utc | 214
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 1 2024 10:33 utc | 216
I don’t think it’s important who did the deed.
Even if it had happened by mistake it’s a sign that the army, or part of it, is not properly working.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 1 2024 11:32 utc | 215
RT has a “40-minute conversation between high-ranking Bundeswehr officers”. Bundeswehr Air Force inspector, who participated in the discussion of the strike on the Crimean Bridge, allowed the transfer of 100 Taurus missiles to Kiev (…) discussed the possibility of using these missiles for the attack, with the help of the Rafale fighter. “require 10 or even 20 missiles” to destroy the bridge.
Posted by: rk | Mar 1 2024 11:36 utc | 216
Full transcript of the German military discussing a strike on the Crimean Bridge (RIA Novosti, March 1, 2024 — in Russian)
Posted by: S | Mar 1 2024 11:41 utc | 217
How about exchanging 10 – 20 British LNG tankers for the bridge? Is that a fair trade?
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 1 2024 11:47 utc | 218
Who participated in the discussion of a strike on the Crimean Bridge (RIA Novosti, March 1, 2024 — in Russian)
The editor-in-chief of the Rossiya Segodnya media group and the RT television channel, Margarita Simonyan, has published on her VK page a transcript of the conversation between high-ranking Bundeswehr officers discussing a strike on the Crimean Bridge with Taurus missiles.
The conversation includes the head of the Operations and Exercises Department of the Bundeswehr Air Force Command Frank Graefe, Bundeswehr’s Inspector of the Air Force Ingo Gerhartz, an employee of the Air Operations Center of the Bundeswehr Space Command Stefan Fenske and an employee of the same department named Frostedte.
Here’s what we know about them.
Frank Graefe
Brigadier General of the Bundeswehr Air Force, head of Operations and Exercises Department of the Air Force Command. Former German military attaché to the U.S.
Born in Saarland (West Germany). He began his military career at the age of 20. Commanded various units of the German Air Force. Supervised pilot training as an employee of the German Ministry of Defense.
He has been to Afghanistan several times. In 2017, he headed the group that investigated incidents related to the German Air Force group in Jordan. In 2019, Graefe was the military attaché of Germany in the United States, same year he received the rank of Brigadier General.
Ingo Gerhartz
Lieutenant General of the Bundeswehr Air Force. Since May 2018 he is the Inspector of the Air Force.
His military career began in July 1985 with service as a conscript in the 2nd Training Regiment of the German Air Force in Budel (the Netherlands). By 2000 he rose to the rank of a Major.
For the next three years, Gerhartz commanded the Jagdgeschwader 73 “Steinhof” flight group. For this purpose, he retrained on the Soviet MiG-29 fighter, which this aerobatic team is flying.
From 2005 to 2007 he was Press Secretary of the German Air Force.
In 2010 he joined the Air Force Command. Since 2017 he was Deputy Head of the Strategy and Operations Department of the German Ministry of Defense.
In 2023, on his initiative, a 12-day international large-scale exercise, Air Defender 23, was held in Germany. 250 aircraft and about ten thousand soldiers took part in it.
Stefan Fenske
Since February 2016, he has headed one of the departments of the Air Operations Center of the Bundeswehr Space Command.
Lives in the town of Strausberg. In 2013, he was awarded the Bundeswehr Cross of Honour for his “heroic actions” while putting out a fire in the barracks.
Posted by: S | Mar 1 2024 12:16 utc | 219
UK Is Pushing Germany to Send Taurus Missiles to Ukraine (Bloomberg, Alex Wickham & Michael Nienaber, March 1, 2024)
Posted by: S | Mar 1 2024 12:28 utc | 220
Putin Drops Economic Bombshell, Russia Bans ALL Gasoline Exports, Ukraine Fears Summer Defeat
Putin just made his annual state address and declared a strong Russian economy. In addition, Russia just made a 6 month ban on gasoline exports and Ukraine is in total panic with a big fear of defeat coming within months. Here’s what you must know!
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 1 2024 12:44 utc | 221
Rolling defeats for Ukraine following the political dismissal of Zaluzhny.
“You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone”
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Mar 1 2024 12:46 utc | 222
In previous attacks on Crimea, the defense was easy to saturate. The same with attacks on the Black Sea fleet. 3-4-5 missiles and 5-10 drones and boom. So the number of “10-20” missiles to hit multiple sections of the bridge seems plausible. I don’t know how many missiles like that a single plane can have, but if nato has found enough kamikaze pilots, 20-30 f16s can be in Ukr almost instantly. The only question is what happens after they get hit and why retards from natostan’s army think that bridge means something for someone. The bridge alone will only make madam Z to complain at UN
Posted by: rk | Mar 1 2024 12:50 utc | 223
Posted by: rk | Mar 1 2024 12:50 utc | 225
Any defense is easy to saturate if you throw enough stuff against something.
Nato is talking about concentrating the entire Ukraine + Nato air force on a single target with all the remaining Taurus and Storm Shadow missiles on a single target, it is obvious there is high chance of saturation.
But put it in context, Russia is concentrating a fraction of air force and drones every day on a single target in Ukraine, and they still saturate everything 70-80% of the time.
You don’t necessarily need to put it into a math formula – who do you think is winning the air war?
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 1 2024 12:54 utc | 224
Posted by: rk | Mar 1 2024 12:50 utc | 225
Crimea bridge is most a pr thing.
Don’t know how advanced it is but RF is already building a railway+road on the land.
Destroying Crimea bridge would be a nice hipe in Msm but will have little if any effect on war outcome.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 1 2024 12:59 utc | 225
I think there are aspects of this possible theft of Russian assets that haven’t been considered. First, any payments made to Russia for things the USA/EU can’t live without get complicated – perhaps this will encourage block chain ! It could further establish the ruble – and yuan – as reserve currencies by default because dollars can’t be used except perhaps as a pallet of currency.
Second, if the EU/US are looking at saving $ and fuel on the Russian Arctic passage, that’s a problem. Ships can be confiscated – and at an area in which Russia is utterly dominant ( with nuclear icebreakers). Indeed, I wonder about international court fights and military threats for years to come as property can be seized, if movable.
It would be hard to imagine how China reacts. Dump Treasuries? Pretend nothing has changed? They may not want to demand yuan for goods directly because it might make yuan too strong. OTOH, they may have no choice, given how irrational the US is becoming.
Posted by: Eighthman | Mar 1 2024 14:33 utc | 226
I don’t know how many missiles like that a single plane can have,
Posted by: rk | Mar 1 2024 12:50 utc | 225
IMU single item. it is a beast at 1400kg / 3000lbs
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 1 2024 14:45 utc | 227
In the case of Ukraine, what will “collapse” mean?
Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 29 2024 23:33 utc | 203
You have to keep in mind that Ukraine was basically Russian until 1991. There is still a population of Ukrainians sympathetic to Russia and Russians have no problem passing for Ukrainian. I don’t think a Ukrainian official could fart without a report being generated as to it’s odour. The Russians are very good at spycraft and infiltrating Ukrainian separatist movements has been a Russian priority since the 1920’s.
I suspect we’ll see a an uprising in Ukraine as Russia begins to turn the heat up from a simmer to a boil. The Russians are playing their cards close to their chest but I suspect they have agents in Ukraine working to get all the pieces in place. The Soviets were excellent at these sorts of operations and that knowledge hasn’t been lost.
Russia will get Novorossiya back and the rump will be supported by the “west”. I suspect Novorossiya will rebuilt with Chinese investment as the region is rich in natural resources. The rump is basically mortgaged to the west anyway so perhaps they’ll not want to damage their investment further by letting it fall to anarchy.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 1 2024 14:56 utc | 228
Crimea bridge is most a pr thing.
Don’t know how advanced it is but RF is already building a railway+road on the land.
Destroying Crimea bridge would be a nice hipe in Msm but will have little if any effect on war outcome.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 1 2024 12:59 utc | 227
Before the bridge was finally completed the Russians ran a ferry service to Crimea. The Kerch ferry road service is still operating … I’m sure it wouldn’t take much to get the rail service back as well.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Mar 1 2024 15:11 utc | 229
…. Destroying Crimea bridge would be a nice hipe in Msm but will have little if any effect on war outcome.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 1 2024 12:59 utc | 227
Maybe but there is also the argument that propaganda wins have been an essential component in keeping the Ukrainian population engaged for so long, against all common sense, and will remain a necessary component in rallying support and suppressing dessent across the whole anti-Russia alliance.
For every notable defeat Russian forces have inflicted on Ukrainian forces, there has always been a newsworthy response to prop up the the UA / Empire narrative. These are always discounted on purely military grounds, even when their purpose is clearly about preventing exactly the sort of organic collapse in UA resistance that has been hoped for all along as a natural early end to hostilities.
Destroying warships with dumb-as-shit drone boats, taking pot shots at the Crimean Bridge, wiping out carelessly placed equipment or personnel with HIMARS, etc.., are all easy wins that fit into a necessary portrayal of Russia as fallible and defeatable.
The started goal is to string the conflict out so it costs Russia as much as possible without triggering an unmanageable escalation. If that causes a change in Russian leaders to a pro-western faction then all well and good, if not the conflict is still a win for its sponsors and curators.
We ought to have moved behind pretending that wartime propaganda isn’t itself a “front” with important wins and losses, and that trashing Kakhovka HPP, possibly taking out the Crimean Bridge or even doing enough damage to Zaporhizia NPP to make it unusable somehow aren’t “military” goals.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 1 2024 15:41 utc | 230
Ukraine Weekly Update, 1st March 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-cc1
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Mar 1 2024 15:46 utc | 231
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 1 2024 15:41 utc | 232
You are right, propaganda is a front of war.
Unfortunately is working only on the western side, and actually not that well.
Imagine to be on the Ukranian side, having a limited number of himars would you prefer them to be used to hit Russian troups, logistic hubs fuel deposit or to damage a bridge that can be repaired or bypassed?
Posted by: Mario | Mar 1 2024 15:54 utc | 232
The Russians have been working on the rail links between Rostov, Mariupol, Crimea, Donetsk, and Melitopol, but it’s difficult to find information on the progress of these efforts. The Ukrainians have been targeting these efforts with HIMARS with at least some success – as they also have done with the road bridges to Crimea. The taking of Avdeevka and continued push from there to the north will allow repair of additional rail connections to the Donetsk rail hub. The Kerch bridge is actually two bridges – double track rail and the road bridge. Quite hard to effectively put out of service for an extended period. Did the Russians manage to completely sever the rail link to Odessa from Moldova? They hit a key bridge multiple times with missiles but didn’t destroy the structure if I recall. Inflicted repairable damage. A FAB 1500 might do it.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 1 2024 16:05 utc | 233
Did the Russians manage to completely sever the rail link to Odessa from Moldova? They hit a key bridge multiple times with missiles but didn’t destroy the structure if I recall.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 1 2024 16:05 utc | 235
I didn’t see any news about that bridge either. Odessa region seems to be out of control, even if they send missiles and drones relatively often. Maybe that’s why the Macaron wants to send his clowns, for Odessa. He can set all bases and logistics at the borders, inside Poland and Romania and Moldova. Today French msm wrote some crap with the idea that if France enters in Ukr, evil Putin can’t conquer it anymore. This works with the other news that Bojo begs the offended sausage to send missiles, which we now know they’re meant to be used in Crimea.
Posted by: rk | Mar 1 2024 16:44 utc | 234
@rk | Mar 1 2024 16:44 utc | 236
Anti-Spiegel has a piece up on on the German leak. The discussions on hitting the bridge are inconclusive – “It’s like attacking a runway – 10 or 20 missiles might not be sufficient.” There is also discussion about hitting ammunition depots and the consensus is that this is an easier and probably more appropriate target – but the choice of targets would be up to the Ukrainians.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 1 2024 16:58 utc | 235
… but the choice of targets would be up to the Ukrainians.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 1 2024 16:58 utc | 237
Ukraine’s leadership has shown a very logical preference for attacks that support the narrative on which their own survival depends. Sometimes those attacks have made sense from a narrow military perspective, sometimes they’ve served the needs of Ukraine’s sponsors to shore up their own domestic position, other times they are simply retaliation to keep things level after an obvious setback.
Posted by: anon2020 | Mar 1 2024 18:19 utc | 236
@anon2020 | Mar 1 2024 18:19 utc | 238
What I posted is not my opinion – just what the participants in the conversation said, i.e. that the Ukrainians would choose the targets.
Posted by: the pessimist | Mar 1 2024 18:40 utc | 237
This is coming to a theater near you.
20 Days in Mariupol
The latest propaganda piece targeting Russia-Russia-Russia.
Academy Award® Nominee: Documentary Feature Film
BAFTA Award Winner: Best Documentary
An AP team of Ukrainian journalists trapped in the besieged city of Mariupol struggle to continue their work documenting atrocities of the Russian invasion. As the only international reporters who remain in the city as Russian forces close in, they capture what become some of the most defining images of the war: dying children, mass graves, the bombing of a maternity hospital, and more.
After nearly a decade covering international conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war, for The Associated Press, Mstyslav Chernov makes his feature film debut with 20 Days in Mariupol. The film draws on Chernov’s daily news dispatches and personal footage of his own country at war. It offers a vivid, harrowing account of civilians caught in the siege, as well as a window into what it’s like to report from a conflict zone, and the impact of such journalism around the globe.
Made in partnership with The Associated Press, 20 Days in Mariupol has had a decorated run on the 2023 film festival circuit — including winning the Sundance Film Festival Audience Award for World Cinema Documentary and the Tim Hetherington Award at Sheffield Film Festival. The film was also honored with DocEdge Film Festival’s awards for “Best International Director” and “Best International Editing.”
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/20-days-in-mariupol/
“WGBH and its programs, including FRONTLINE, are supported by a broad mix of funding sources, including more than 150,000 individuals, along with foundations, corporations and the federal government. This prevents our reliance on any particular funding source and contributes to assuring our independence.”
“Additional funding is provided by the Abrams Foundation; Park Foundation; the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation; the Heising-Simons Foundation; and the FRONTLINE Journalism Fund with major support from Jon and Jo Ann Hagler on behalf of the Jon L. Hagler Foundation, and additional support from Koo and Patricia Yuen.”
“FRONTLINE Journalism Fund is provided by: The Arches Foundation, Joseph Azrack and Abigail Congdon, Charina Endowment Fund, The Clinton Family Fund, Suzanne and Mark Colodny, Shona Crabtree and Alexander Macgillivray, Laura DeBonis, Chris and Michelle DeLong, Emerson Collective, Jack Gordon, William H. Harris, James G. Hart Foundation, Bill and Lucile Hicks, Thomas P. Jalkut, Daniel Peightel, The Fredric J. Ridel Living Trust, Ruggles Family Foundation, Corey David Sauer, and Debra and Christopher Wysopal, Willett Family Foundation.
Posted by: librul | Mar 1 2024 19:46 utc | 238
Who saw it?
Exclusive: How US Tank Worth Millions of Dollars Was Defeated by Cheap Russian Drone
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240301/exclusive-how-us-tank-worth-millions-of-dollars-was-defeated-by-cheap-russian-drone-1117079419.html
Posted by: Elber | Mar 1 2024 20:47 utc | 239
Can anyone comment on this purported mass ‘protest’ in Moscow?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNbOCMxYYG0
Any truth to it? What is the full story?
Posted by: arthur brogard | Mar 1 2024 21:04 utc | 240
The collapse can not be resisted.
In Adveeka, apparently, soldiers withdraw on a personal decision, not by others of the command.
In other places there are rumors that some withdrawing Ukraine soldiers have been shot by Ukraine soldiers.
When you have few soldiers, insufficient weapons no logistic, you are not in a position to fight, Zelensky or Sirsky can order whatever they want.
Posted by: Mario | Mar 1 2024 10:12 utc | 214
Of course the collapse can be resisted — certainly not reversed or avoided in the end. But of course the drowning rats will still try to keep swimming. It’s survival instinct, not to mention a fixated ideological delusion of Zelensky and Co.
And, you are fantasising when talking about 10-50 mutinous troops leaving their positions on the front. Of course its true, but miniscule. I’m talking about the 400,000 AFU troops all over Ukraine. Do you realise any one of them will be imprisoned for maybe 15 years if they desert and are later picked up at home by the SBU.
Collapse, collapse, collapse, everybody says. Yes, but despite the trend of truthfully calling the Donbass battlefront a progressive military collapse, Bankova itself, UK, US, EU leaders, NATO commanders, are all far away from surrendering to that. Their EVERY DAY moves to ramp up and create more mischief for Moscow is PROOF PERFECT of their resistence to this reputed collapse.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 1 2024 21:33 utc | 241
Re the German transcript.
Hmm, I read it and have my doubts about authenticity. It reads like kindergarten banter sprinkled with some names and facts. I realise I am not au fait with the German Military Staff, but do they really talk like that?!?! Lol. Kind of moronic.
I suppose RT would thoroughly check their sources. But it could still be an elaborate psyop by Russia to embarass Sholz, to implicate all the EU/UK Miltary, and TO PREVENT dangerous missiles strikes upon Crimea through “public exposure”. I guess we won’t know unless/until the Bundestag investigates and those Generals’ heads roll for clearly plotting against their Chancellor. Smells fishy to me. Did those Top Security Bunderswehr personnel really let a tape of theur skullduggery get out. Now, THAT’S incompetence! After all, it is technically treason for appointed senior military officers to plot against their elected Commander-in-Chief. Or is that how the deep state works in Germany?
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 1 2024 21:53 utc | 242
I don’t know how many missiles like that a single plane can have,
Posted by: rk | Mar 1 2024 12:50 utc | 225
IMU single item. it is a beast at 1400kg / 3000lbs
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 1 2024 14:45 utc | 229
correction euroFighter can carry 2 Taurus (just seen imagery):
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/russland-bundeswehr-abhoeren-102.html
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 2 2024 9:48 utc | 243
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 1 2024 21:53 utc | 244
informal Teleconference ( and remember it has been translated more than once? DE to RU, RU to EN? )
ever listened to an informal teleconference? ( showing apparent front lobe damage 🙂
could still be faked, sure!
( I await political fallout to _maybe_ show up with some info )
Posted by: MAKK | Mar 2 2024 9:53 utc | 244
Posted by: Elber | Mar 1 2024 20:47 utc | 241
I’d guess just like the Russian tanks. All a drone is, like the one pictured, is, is a remote, guided platform for delivering munitions previously fired by an AT system. An M1, like any tank, was never designed to withstand top attacks by HEAT rounds, something the Soviets lacked during the Cold-War (their artillery delivered cluster rounds were largely HE designed for suppression tasks and counter-battery). Tops and bottoms, always a tank’s weakness to the cheapest of munitions available, you just have to hit them and drones give frontline soldiers that ability.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Mar 1 2024 21:33 utc | 243
Although using historical examples is fraught with dangers (witness the debate about human wave attacks that misses a central point about battlefield perceptions, and is largely irrelevant), Germany in ‘45 can provide some useful pointers about what is, and what might be, happening. Fighting on two fronts, with similar and dissimilar dynamics, shows the role of ideology in artificially sustaining a conflict, whilst tactical collapse mechanics and their operational impacts, show the reverse is true for traditional defence postures and fortifications. The inconsistent nature of the ‘collapse’ of German armed resistance also points to an uneven but inexorable reversal of Ukrainian fortunes, a perception that was, and is now, countered by talk of striking a massive blow against the enemy, that will lead to victory.
In summary, the four T’s (Troops, Tactics and Tempo and timing) have all started to change in the end state, driving the incline decline cycles that power both armies actions.
Troops: Russian forces are able to retain more of their experienced combatants, boosting the overall forces combat effectiveness, meaning better:
Tactics: increased combat effectiveness and higher survival rates combine to make more effective tactics, using better use of:
Timing: the ability for a unit to be able to process and carry out its orders quickly, whilst supporting services are equally rapid (kill chains etc) leading to an increased:
Tempo, the speed of these veteran troops, employing effective tactics quickly, leads to an increased number of operations being conducted in an offensive cycle.
You could also add a fifth ‘T’, Technology to the mix, but that really is a force multiplier for the above, improving, boosting, accelerating all the core components of the cycles.
When the distance between the two cycles reaches a certain point the duration of a conflict is measured in days or weeks, such as the Coalition had reached in its pre-operational deployment during the Gulf War, or Germany in France ‘40, or the Reich’s last moments.
Posted by: Milites | Mar 2 2024 11:20 utc | 245
For German speakers…the audio tape that was leaked has been published by RT DE:
https://rtde.team/inland/198064-taurus-leak-verteidigungsministerium-bestaetigt-echtheit-des-mitschnitts/
enjoy
Posted by: grunzt | Mar 2 2024 19:58 utc | 246