A 22 minute condensed version with English subtitles of the Russian film about the taking of Mariupol, At The Edge Of The Abyss. Very good, worth watching.

Posted by: Roger | Feb 29 2024 4:59 utc | 104

@62 Espelho Mágico.
O F-16 não é melhor do que um Mig-29.
É é muito menos robusto.

Posted by: Soviético | Feb 29 2024 6:16 utc | 106

“However, it is also possible that NATO snuck in some tactical warheads there and Russia blew them up with a conventional strike, possibly not even being aware they were there. Notice that there are actually two huge explosions in the video, it’s not just one.
… maybe it will actually trigger a chain reaction.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 22:45 utc | 59”
Not a chance, pure fantasy.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Feb 29 2024 6:36 utc | 108

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 29 2024 4:56 utc | 104
Collapsing, eh? What exactly does that mean, in terms of political and military facts, rather than just a bunch of new conscripts and frightened cauldron meat “stepping back”, as the popular mappers call it.
Mate, serious question:
Do you really see Zelensky, Syrsky, Budanov, the collectove Rada, Austin, Biden, soon saying “Ok Vlad. Were collapsing. You’ve collapsed us. We’ll call the remaining 400k troops back to barracks if you stop shooting and storming us. Now what is it you want to stop advancing from today?”
You say “when the country will be forced to admit defeat”. And you think Moscow will just say, “Oh, and by the way, we want the Zhirin…ovsky Map, that is everything east of the Dneiper and all the Black Sea Coast plus over to PMR, even though we haven’t fought for it, just because we collapsed you in the Donbass” ?????? Do you seriously think it will come THAT easily?
And what exactly is this thing called “collapsing”? It’s just a trendy catch phrase, a pro-Russian narrative, despite it being increasingly true for the last 18 months (ref McGregor, Ritter). Yes, village after village is being taken. But do you really think the AFU (with jingoistic encouragement from the west) is not going to keep reinforcing various defence positions west of the present frontines, and continue to throw munitions at Russia until all they have left is corn cobs? The Kiev mob and the AFU and its masters all think they can fight on through this mythical “collapsing”. As Zelensky believes, collasping is not a possibility. He believes he has F16s coming; Abrams in the garage; Tauruses to yet wheedle out of Germany. Have you never seen a deluded and wounded man keep on fighting beyond all possibility and commonsense of survival?
And even if Biden’s current 60 Billion package doesn’t get through to Kiev this time, who’s to say there won’t be another 100 billion coming down the pipeline by Dec elections. Anything to prevent collapsing (ie, losing) is their mantra.
OF COURSE it won’t win the war. But it will certainly stretch out this mythical “collapsing” another 9 months or even more. When exactly is the “collapsing” house going to lay flat on the ground, standing no more, and the guns fall silent?

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 6:59 utc | 110

I don’t see barflies understanding the the Ukraine military is collapsing and when that occurs there will be no need to invade Kiev, Odessa or other areas because the country will be forced to admit defeat.
Coming soon to a civilization war theatre in our world…..
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 29 2024 4:56 utc | 104
Here’s hoping that will happen with rapidity!

Posted by: jpc | Feb 29 2024 7:13 utc | 112

@snake | Feb 29 2024 3:22 utc | 99

Negotiating with Russia could get ugly very soon
Remove all sanctions
dissolve and disband NATO
Return to the nuclear test band treaty with open inspections.
open-source swift
No NATO bases or weapons within 500 miles of a Russian Border
restore Nord stream II at the losers cost..
compensate Russia for its losses to western weapons
Europe to resume using cheap oil from Russia.
Western forces to permanently depart Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Ukraine totally administered by Russia
No western equipment, military or commercial interest in, on, or over the black sea.
present all participants (militants and politicians) in the war in Ukraine for human rights trials to be held by an international Tribunal.
russian language and Russian history to be taught in Ukraine..

Hear, hear…

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 29 2024 7:27 utc | 114

Germany had 6.5 million soldiers in 1945, and a force pool of over 10 million, it didn’t help. There is little, if anything, that Ukraine can now do that will prevent the inevitable, just as nothing the Germans did could prevent their fate. The time for Ukrainian strategies to avoid this situation was a year ago, wasting the best part of an army on pointless counter-attacks, which helped weaken the strategic reserve and consumed the majority of their artillery ammunition was the critical point in the conflict, sealing the fate of the country. Just as the offensives in NW Europe and the Eastern Front sealed Germany’s, nearly 80 years ago.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 29 2024 0:44 utc | 87

This is pretty much what happened.
From what I am seeing the UAF can’t hold the front anymore because they don’t have any fortified positions behind Avdeevka. FABs are already scary enough even when the troops receiving them are entrenched, now imagine being on the receiving end of those monsters while lacking decent cover….
They will need to fall back behind the river to hold if at all. What remains to be seen IMHO is the situation in Vugledar. I expect it to fall soon and then the frontline in the south will collapse completely.

Many of you are totally delusional. You have swallowed russian propaganda like a bunch of useful idiots.
Read Anatoliy Golitsyn. The commies have mindfucked you all. Wake up!
Posted by: Jack A | Feb 29 2024 4:12 utc | 100

Commies? Seriously? The only commies I know are in Cuba. Have you just woken up from a 35 year coma?

Posted by: Modern Stoic | Feb 29 2024 7:49 utc | 116

And even if Biden’s current 60 Billion package doesn’t get through to Kiev this time, who’s to say there won’t be another 100 billion coming down the pipeline by Dec elections. Anything to prevent collapsing (ie, losing) is their mantra.
OF COURSE it won’t win the war. But it will certainly stretch out this mythical “collapsing” another 9 months or even more. When exactly is the “collapsing” house going to lay flat on the ground, standing no more, and the guns fall silent?
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 6:59 utc | 112

Ah this is a mistaken view. Ukraine does need money but it is a tertiary priority. What the country needs is trained men along with trained officers and weapons to fight. It lacks all the above and can’t compensate in any way. A collapse of an army isn’t a continuous phenomenon by definition. It is an event. When it happens it will be obvious. In a way you are correct that the terminology “collapse” isn’t appropriate, the UAF are shrinking but they still fight. The only certain thing is that a collapse of the UAF is imminent regardless of mobilisation. Why? Because the UKIES are lacking officers. You can recruit cannon fodder all day but without officers to lead and coordinate them, they have zero combat efficiency.

Posted by: Modern Stoic | Feb 29 2024 8:02 utc | 118

[The AFU] … will need to fall back behind the river to hold if at all. What remains to be seen IMHO is the situation in Vugledar. I expect it to fall soon and then the frontline in the south will collapse completely.
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Feb 29 2024 7:49 utc | 118
There it is again — that phrase, “the frontline will collapse completely”.
What happens then? What EXACTLY does this “frontline collapsing” thing look like?
Will 400k Ukie troops just sit down in the fields, awaiting Russian POW busses to pick them up with lunch?
Or will the Ukie soldiers turn around and walk slowly west while the Russian army drive 2000 tanks westwards at 5kph, like herding sheep into their home pens?
Or will the local commanders get orders from Kiev to load everybody into their non-existent 100,000 Toyota pickups to drive overnight to Lvov for reassembly?
Or will the Russians surround them all with tanks and IFV guns, then make a call to Kiev “Hey Volodymyr. We’ve got 400,000 of your guys here. Do you want them back?”
I just don’t get why people keep using this term collapsing without considering the practical ramifications of it. It’s just a cliché. Obviously it will take a realisation by Zelensky that his army is irrevocably defeated, plus permission from Washington on what to say and do next. A “complete collapse” allows Russia only two options — a gradual human slaughter of the AFU, or a phone call to Bankova. But will Zelensky pick up?
It seems crystal clear to me that Z & Co are far from accepting that. So, to say Ukraine is collapsing is way premature and incongruous with military realities. It’s like saying at 5 minutes past midday that the day is collapsing. Well yes, the sun is technically on its way to setting, but it is still far away from sunset and dark.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 8:37 utc | 120

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/28/british-soldiers-help-ukraine-fire-missiles-olaf-scholz/
The western media is abuzz with olaf saying the quiet part out loud. UK troops fire the missiles in Ukraine they supply. And boy did he get roasted for saying what we all know.

Posted by: Hankster | Feb 29 2024 8:43 utc | 122

Ukraine does need money but it is a tertiary priority. What the country needs is trained men along with trained officers and weapons to fight. It lacks all the above and can’t compensate in any way.
A collapse of an army isn’t a continuous phenomenon by definition. It is an event. When it happens it will be obvious. In a way you are correct that the terminology “collapse” isn’t appropriate, the UAF are shrinking but they still fight. The only certain thing is that a collapse of the UAF is imminent regardless of mobilisation. Why? Because the UKIES are lacking officers. You can recruit cannon fodder all day but without officers to lead and coordinate them, they have zero combat efficiency.
Posted by: Modern Stoic | Feb 29 2024 8:02 utc | 120

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 9:00 utc | 124

Posted by: Modern Stoic | Feb 29 2024 8:39 utc | 123
that is irrelevant. ( always a good laugh: Russians shelling themselves.
but strangely nobody consuming Quality Media here notices the absurdity)
the “Why” is:
what has the US installed before Jan 2022 on site @ sapo NPP
that they admonish the Russians to not touch?

Posted by: MAKK | Feb 29 2024 9:01 utc | 126

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 8:37 utc | 122
Sigh! For the slow folks in class.
Germany fought WW11 on 4 “Fronts” – N. Africa, Italy, Russia & France
N. Africa collapsed May 1943, Italy – May 1945, Eastern (Russia) – Summer 1944.
Ukraine has only 1 frontline and apart from natural obstacles like rivers and main cities, has no prepared positions or manpower to hold back the opposing forces, hence the imaginary lines variously called FEBA/FLOT/Frontline is collapsing.

Posted by: Suresh | Feb 29 2024 9:19 utc | 128

Jake is forgetting morale. Once that ” collapses” people desert , suicide, frag the commanders, all sorts of things that further degrade a fighting ability of the whole force. No need to be chased by tanks to flee the battlefield or lay down weapons .from what I’ve seen they new recruits obediently stay in a hole until they are dead. More of a necrocide for the 4 hr soldiers of ukraine

Posted by: Hankster | Feb 29 2024 9:27 utc | 130

So, as long as ANY GOODIES keep flowing in, the Ukies will fight.
A collapse is both a slow continuum and a final event. My point is that too many are calling the collapse as soon, immanent — which it is not.
Officers are only an efficiency gain. Idiots can still shoot shit and wound Russians. And remember, there’s clearly lots of NATO officers in the game.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 9:00 utc | 126
you should have started with the bolded statement so as to preserve my time wasted on reading the rest of your answer. You have no understanding of war if you think that officers are an efficiency gain. You can’t grab a trooper and make him into an officer. NATO officers are already pushing up the daisies btw,

A collapse is both a slow continuum and a final event

False. It is the latter not the former. A wall isn’t collapsing for hundreds of years.

Idiots can still shoot shit and wound Russians.

Yes but this isn’t happening because the majority of the war is fought elsewhere. By the time they see the Russians assaulting their positions, it is already late for them. Also there is the matter of training. A tank needs an officer. An artillery system too. Who will train the rest of the crew if the officer himself in inexperienced with the hardware?

Posted by: Modern Stoic | Feb 29 2024 9:28 utc | 132

Jake is forgetting morale. Once that ” collapses” people desert , suicide, frag the commanders, all sorts of things that further degrade a fighting ability of the whole force. No need to be chased by tanks to flee the battlefield or lay down weapons .from what I’ve seen they new recruits obediently stay in a hole until they are dead. More of a necrocide for the 4 hr soldiers of ukraine
Posted by: Hankster | Feb 29 2024 9:27 utc | 132
Yes he is. He is also confusing the Collapse of a front with the Collapse of the army. They are not the same thing
Also new recruits without training can only hold the area with their presence. They are literally cannon fodder. They are only meant to be there as an obstacle to Russian pushes to attract artillery and bombs. If they fled then the Russians would advance unimpeded.

Posted by: Modern Stoic | Feb 29 2024 9:34 utc | 134

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 8:37 utc | 122
What Zelensky and others are willing to accept is largely irrilevant.
War is not predictable as the sun path, it’s a largely chaotic succession of events.
Is more like a dam going to collapse, it starts with some little cracks and water dripping and it will end with a sudden crash.
You know that the dam is doomed but you can’t predict when it will actually happen.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 29 2024 9:43 utc | 136

Administrative news from Ukraine:
-US and IMF have denied Ukraine from raising AFU salaries, citing any further budget expenditure increases are unacceptable
-De-mobilization law by Zelensky quickly turned into another corruption scheme – the ‘unofficial’ cost for demobilization is $5k, and with no guarantee one will not be returned to the front anyway within some days.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 29 2024 10:22 utc | 138

Posted by: rk | Feb 29 2024 10:26 utc | 141
You are confirming what has long been told here on MoA.
It will be a victory, for Msm, to retain 80% of Ukraine.
All the grand plan of borders of 1990, disruption of RF e regime change memory holed.
THE 80% of Ukraine, expecially if isolated from the sea, with no people and a giant rebuilding cost will be practically useless for eu/Nato.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 29 2024 10:40 utc | 140

@whirlX | Feb 29 2024 0:56 utc | 89
> What I know of from 1990s is, that around 1993 there was a serious
> science paper doing rounds in Russian mil-science circles about
> no-radiation tactical 1-megaton nuke design.
See Gsponer 2005
https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0510071
Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons: Military effectiveness and collateral effects
“The paper begins with a general introduction and update to Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons (FGNW), and then addresses some particularly important military aspects on which there has been only limited public discussion so far. These aspects concern the unique military characteristics of FGNWs which make them radically different from both nuclear weapons based on previous-generation nuclear-explosives and from conventional weapons based on chemical-explosives: yields in the 1 to 100 tons range, greatly enhanced coupling to targets, possibility to drive powerful shaped-charge jets and forged fragments, enhanced prompt radiation effects, reduced collateral damage and residual radioactivity, etc.”

Posted by: Father Dougal | Feb 29 2024 10:53 utc | 142

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/28/politics/pentagon-considering-tapping-last-source-ukraine-funding/index.html
Just goes to show that the money problem is just stupid propaganda. They always find the money.

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 29 2024 11:03 utc | 144

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 29 2024 11:03 utc | 146
Yes, now go buy some unicorns for Ukraine. 😂

Posted by: Mario | Feb 29 2024 11:13 utc | 146

{interesting info}
Posted by: Father Dougal | Feb 29 2024 10:57 utc | 145
Thanks, that could be something.
Hmm, blatant copy of patented stuff ? :-)))
I am still irritated over the timing.

Posted by: MAKK | Feb 29 2024 11:34 utc | 148

Father Dougal | Feb 29 2024 10:53 utc | 144
There was discussion at the time, obviously with no proof, that the Beirut bomb matched the parameters of a possible FGNW.

Posted by: JohninMK | Feb 29 2024 11:52 utc | 150

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 29 2024 11:38 utc | 151
Would you mind to point out the third party country that could sell weapons? 🤔

Posted by: Mario | Feb 29 2024 12:02 utc | 152

Until the dollar becomes worthless, they will keep pumping this racket until there are no more living ukrops to fight with.
Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 29 2024 11:38 utc | 151
Very interesting point as the less commented on 2nd front that the Russians are gearing up for is the attack on the US$ that they are formulating within BRICS.
The problem that the US/EU has with sanctions is that every time the US cranks them up, especially with the latest assault on Mir, Russia’s desire to kick the door down is surely hardened and accelerated. Pure US arrogant stupidity again.
There must be a strong chance that the negotiations on unconditional surrender of Ukraine will be enhanced with a move on the US$ in international trade settlement. Putin in his speech this morning making a strong point on how much the BRICS+ countries are going to grow over the next few years compared to the G7.
The end of the war in Ukraine likely being an economic as well as military defeat, changing the World in ways the US never imagined.

Posted by: JohninMK | Feb 29 2024 12:06 utc | 154

@156,
Will see. Of course, BRICS can be the alternative to the US led world but I don’t see them as a homogeneous group yet. At least this is how I see it as of now. There might be more “democracy” in that group than it is in EU (for example) where countries like Hungary and Slovakia are pushed aside when it comes to this war in Ukraine.

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 29 2024 12:16 utc | 156

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 29 2024 12:10 utc | 157
Except India the others are dwarf and possibly not willing to share their shells, expecially knowing that they would possibly never be restored.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 29 2024 12:30 utc | 158

Posted by: rk | Feb 29 2024 12:33 utc | 161
Dutch forces? Should I start laughing now or is better if I wait to see them on the Frontline? 🤔

Posted by: Mario | Feb 29 2024 12:36 utc | 160

@Colonelcassad:
One of the critical aspects determining the discussion behind enemy lines regarding the whereabouts of prepared fortifications west of Avdeevka is the enemy’s recent disbelief in the ability of the Russian Armed Forces to penetrate the fortified area of Avdeevka.
As a result, despite assertions about the construction of a secondary line of fortifications to the city’s west, these efforts were carried out negligently at best. More likely, a significant portion of the allocated funds was embezzled as usual. With the pretext that “the Russians won’t be able to capture Avdeevka, and no one will verify the construction of trenches behind Orlovka,” reports were submitted formally and perfunctorily.
However, when the retreating troops reached the purportedly “advantageously prepared defensive line” of Berdychi-Orlovka-Tonenkoe, it became evident that the talk of prepared fortifications was merely that – talk. The actual defenses were easily overwhelmed by the Russian Air Force bombs, making it difficult for the troops to hold onto any particular village. Similar challenges likely exist on the third line of defense west of the Berdychi-Orlovka-Tonenkoye line. Until recently, these areas were considered rear zones, with no anticipation of Russian troop presence in the fall. We will soon observe these realities in practice.
Thus, alongside other factors, the victory of the Russian Armed Forces in the Battle of Avdeevka also exposed extensive corruption and fraud within the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the construction of fortifications in urban and field settings along the Avdeevka direction.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/90174

Posted by: Down South | Feb 29 2024 12:48 utc | 162

In a way, it would be a bit of payback for the Russians on NATO soldiers if they ever get inside Ukraine to fight. However, the consequences could be catastrophic.

Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 29 2024 13:14 utc | 164

@23 echo chamber
“If demand goes down due to price increases from inflation, which they do, this means that price will then come down due to weakening demand and increasing competitiveness.
What continues to royally screw with this system of natural value-seeking is the fed’s hand which continues to juice its Frankenstein prize-fighter (the American economy with an unlimited printing press).”
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 28 2024 21:41 utc | 48
I am of a different opinion.
The Fed’s days of producing ‘magic money’ with no consequences is over.
If they were not the Fed would have already dropped its discount rate as they know the 2000% increase (from .25 % to 5.25%) in 18 months is killing the economy especially the commercial property sector; as well many banks are underwater if they marked their US bonds to market.
The Fed is now trapped: keep rates the same or raise them they kill their economy-drop rates and they kill the value of the dollar losing the reserve status.
That’s why constant war is on the agenda-it is the only way to escape bankruptcy.

Posted by: canuck | Feb 29 2024 13:40 utc | 166

Posted by: Down South | Feb 29 2024 12:48 utc | 164

As a result, despite assertions about the construction of a secondary line of fortifications to the city’s west, these efforts were carried out negligently at best. More likely, a significant portion of the allocated funds was embezzled as usual. With the pretext that “the Russians won’t be able to capture Avdeevka, and no one will verify the construction of trenches behind Orlovka,” reports were submitted formally and perfunctorily.

Simplicius also is noting this non-existent defense lines west of Avdeyevka.
I’ve been telling for a long time that corruption is the largest factor explaining the dynamics inside the Ukrainian civil and military management. It explains (1) why the Ukrainians ditched the peaceful arrangements from Istambul at the start of it all (they were bribed by chubby Jhonson), (2) why they split their forces during the Great Olde Spring Summer Couter-Offensive leading to a ridiculous result (they have to split Western Treasure for the offensive into three military factions), (3) why Zalushny was replace by Syrsky (the Syrsky faction wanted to control Western Treasure for some time BEFORE the lights went out), (4) why it took so long to change the military leadership (Zalushny was negotiating his faction’s severance package), and now (5) why there are no real solid lines of defense west of Adveyevka. The West is stuck with a pack of scoundrels both in the civil and military administration of Ukraine.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Feb 29 2024 13:58 utc | 168

@168 canuck
Your observations about the Fed are correct. This was predicted a long time ago by Austrian school economists. The creation of the Fed by a group of bankers on Jekyll Island in Georgia was the creation of a banking cartel that essentially removed the money creation equilibrium from market forces and its failure was/is inevitable. The justification for creation of the Fed was to tame the business cycle and that has never happened….actually it has allowed bubbles to go uncorrected until the correction becomes a financial disaster. It also has kicked the can down the road and allowed the appearance of invulnerability from the MIC.
This relates directly to support for the involvement in Ukraine by the Neocon element embedded in every level of the public/private sector collusion for perpetual war. Support for this approach is rapidly waning in the U.S. among ordinary citizens I think/hope. We have deep structural and cultural issues that have been cultivated by the PtB to keep us divided and distracted while allowing them to destroy the culture.
Of course the VIMA (Vertically Integrated Messaging Apparatus) colludes to push the propaganda and very effectively. In any case, the chickens are coming home to roost and the U.S. MIC has been exposed to anybody with half a brain as incompetent and corrupt to the core. May the world have mercy on us, though I don’t expect it.
And by the way, a debt of gratitude to B and the bar flies here for providing a truly interesting mix of ideas and information not available elsewhere.

Posted by: Giuseppe | Feb 29 2024 14:16 utc | 170

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/30832

Russia is not going to attack Europe, this is nonsense – Putin

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/30831

We are not going to place nuclear weapons in space, this is a fake – Putin

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/30830

The Sarmat complex has been delivered to the troops, we will demonstrate it soon – Putin

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/30828

Russia’s strategic nuclear forces are in a state of full readiness – Putin

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/30829

The Zircon sea-based hypersonic strike complex has already been used in battle; this system is already in service – Putin

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 29 2024 14:43 utc | 172

Posted by: dadooronron | Feb 29 2024 14:14 utc | 171
http://characterisationexplosiveweapons.org/studies/annex-e-mk82-aircraft-bombs/

A standard Mk 82 bomb (227kg) body produces a lethal area of approximately 80 m (across) by 30 m (along), giving a lethal area of approximately 2,400 m2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon

The KAB-1500S GLONASS/GPS guided 1,500 kg (3,300 lb) bomb also has a thermobaric variant. Its fireball will cover a 150 m (490 ft) radius and its lethal zone is a 500 m (1,600 ft) radius.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 29 2024 15:11 utc | 174

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 22:02 utc | 53

Are you implying Khmelnitsky was a nuke? It certainly looked like one. Some physicists have implied so as well.
https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1762815435043451142
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 21:51 utc | 50
That was the one red line the Kremlin may actually have enforced semi-publicly.
If you recall, that happened after the UK sent the DU rounds, and then the Kremlin said that it will treat this as a radiological attack. And it was reportedly the DU rounds, plus possibly some Challenger tanks, that were in that depo and were vaporized.
They weren’t seen on the battlefield after that.

simply a lying pig
the ammunition depot in Khmelnytsky was attacked on 13.05.2023
from Tue 5 Sep 2023 21.52 CEST
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/british-challenger-2-tank-destroyed-in-combat-for-first-time-ukraine-footage-shows

Posted by: ghiwen | Feb 29 2024 15:35 utc | 176

Khmelnitsky ammo depot was probably vaporized with an Iskander-M with 1-5 kT warhead (a very small one). That would ensure it gets the job done.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 22:10 utc | 56
The explosion was caught on camera. A nuclear explosion commences with a flash of light brighter than the sun and there was no light flash therefore no nuke. Size of the bomb doesn’t matter you get a blinding flash of light. Aside from that if the Russians or anyone used a nuke satellites would pick up the telltale flash and radiation would have been detected followed by a nuclear meltdown at the UN.
Thermobarics can cause an explosion that are similar in yeild to a tactical nuke. Many of the FAB-1500 strikes we sees are are doing the same job a small tactical nuke would do and they’re doing it without the need of NBC protection or cleanup for the assaulting troops. I suspect what we saw in Khmelnitsky was a large HE warhead to crack the nut followed by a thermobaric or incendary to torch the mess. That’s just my uneducated wild ass guess … definitely not a nuke though.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 29 2024 17:11 utc | 178

I think we can come up with a better solution today that allows for prosperity without the exploitation of capitalism.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Feb 29 2024 17:51 utc | 181
—
Which brings us to the quintessential question of all economics, “who is going to pay for it”?

Posted by: too scents | Feb 29 2024 18:13 utc | 180

Posted by: too scents | Feb 29 2024 18:13 utc | 182
Which brings us to the quintessential question of all economics, “who is going to pay for it”?
Answer: All West Govs will pay it by un-allowed cashing all its “own” tax-payers – that’s true, ie. by V.D.Lion’s EU new election successfully have done.
Those “guys” like v.d.Lions, US-sponsored Merz(Deep state Germany), Scholz + all B-Bocks like women, will lead the “WORLD” into a new desaster, not by Hurricanes, not by Climate changes, but by a strategically worst “Military Dis-Calculation” for Europe.
The South and SE have learned that .. The West will hopefully do ..
UKR nowadays is going into a retreating defense OP-Mode ..
Let’s wait where all the new recruited UKR-Guys may come from (UK, France, GER?).

Posted by: spare_truth3 | Feb 29 2024 19:34 utc | 182

Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 8:37 utc | 122
I’d expect ‘collapsing’ to be major/ deep RuAF breakthroughs on different sectors of the front, with most of AFU just going home bc they have hardly any ammo left and don’t get paid (and commanders have probably already fled).
At the moment, what’s keeping Ukraine and the AFU afloat is money flowing in (from the EU). Gotta keep this thing going while the getting is good. But money doesn’t shoot down drones and planes.
There won’t be any further US support. It’s an election year, and more importantly, China doesn’t allow it.

Posted by: smuks | Feb 29 2024 20:32 utc | 184

Posted by: spare_truth3 | Feb 29 2024 20:52 utc | 187
After the Adveeka fall rfu operation gain a lot of speed.
That is how it al begins.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 29 2024 21:11 utc | 186

..with most of AFU just going home …
There won’t be any further US support. It’s an election year, and more importantly, China doesn’t allow it.
Posted by: smuks | Feb 29 2024 20:32 utc | 186
Rotflmao. All just too daft to argue with.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 21:52 utc | 188

Just goes to show that the money problem is just stupid propaganda. They always find the money.
Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 29 2024 11:03 utc | 146
—
Yup.
On that subject it’s the last day of feb and about 6 weeks or so ago I agreed with some other poster here that by the end of feb 2024, one way or another Ukr would get new significant US funding (above and beyond all the money still being spent on the project out of 3 letter agency budgets). Well last day of the month and I lost \ was wrong in that prediction. That said we’ll see what the next week or so brings, god only knows wtf is in this next CR\budget madness, I still expect it to be slipped in one way or another.

Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 29 2024 22:06 utc | 190

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 8:37 utc | 122
The definition of a collapse, regarding Armies is not a cliche, it is a term that reflects the end-state that a military organisation reaches, after exposure to irresistible forces. Rapid disintegration of units, and frontlines, and an inability to offer any organised resistance are all symptoms, as is the inability of command elements to understand, or react to enemy actions in an effective way. The term can imply a wholesale collapse, but often refers to sectors or fronts, which in turn can cause a cascade as flanks are exposed and the integrity of defences are undermined.
Russia is now closing for the endgame, likely massing forces for a multiple axes advance, where she will confront the increasingly paralysed Ukrainians with a seemingly endless and never-ending series of small arrow moves. The advances after the capture of Avdeevka, compared to the largely static performance after Bakhmut and the Summer ‘22 victories shows this process is well underway. The Ukrainian second line of defence has largely already collapsed, with the Ukrainian defenders relative lack of mobility, coupled with Russia’s air superiority and mechanised forces, meaning any attempts to trade space for time are costly endeavours, and largely ineffective. The Ukrainian reliance on drones, and their inability to stop armoured columns, without the help of fixed defences, is now also being exploited by Russia.
The real potential game changer would be if the tactical climate allowed the VDV to revert back to their air-assault role, which would be fitting, given the SMO opened with a number of rotary assaults

Posted by: Milites | Feb 29 2024 22:12 utc | 192

The Nord Stream pipelines should be compensated but not rebuilt, and the most damning thing Russia could do to the Eurotoadies is honor their request to cease all trade in fuels—fossil and otherwise.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 29 2024 14:43 utc | 173
That assumes that the USA did not gaslight* the European elites into doing so, or that such a decision was not part and parcel of US policy at all. Unless that is proven to be the case, I am with ‘snake’ (99) on those two points.

restore Nord stream II at the losers cost
Europe to resume using cheap oil from Russia

Some readers have pointed out that the USA, the global parasite that it is, has been at the forefront of deindustrializing Europe so to move its manufacturing sector to the USA if not China or Russia.
(* Pun not intended BTW)

Posted by: joey_n | Feb 29 2024 22:32 utc | 194

(I pressed ‘Post’ before I could finish writing)
And once NATO is dissolved, US bases are dismantled, sanctions are rescinded and the current European administrations (barring the likes of Orban and Fico) are replaced, perhaps the new leaders will be more amenable to buying Russian fuels again*.
(* assuming Russia wants to sell again. I have not heard of Russia wanting to cease sales to Europe – that was the latter’s undoing at the USA’s behest.)

Posted by: joey_n | Feb 29 2024 22:43 utc | 196

We all know that the Ukraine is running out of soldiers. A MAJOR part of the reason why can be traced back to the EU in the recent past.
From 2004/2005 onwards people in the EU were allowed to work in a different country in the EU. As a result of that men and woman from e.g. Poland, Romania and Bulgaria moved from eastern Europe to western Europe (e.g. Germany, Netherlands and the UK). The british government estimated that about 50 thousand people would move to the UK. Instead some 500 thousands came to the UK.
As a result of that shortages of workers in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria started to emerge. To aleviate those sortages of workers these 3 countries “imported” workers from the Ukraine. I assume that the EU approved the “import” of these ukranian workers. These workers were predominantly in the age bracket from 20 year up to 40 years. Precisely the main age bracket that are conscripted to fight in an army.
When the war started additional ukrainians fled to Western Europe. As the war progressed more and more ukrainians fled to the EU and Western Europe. They didn’t want to die in the “meatgrinder”. According to one source some 2 to 3 million ukrainians fled in 2022 and 2023 fled from the Ukraine.
Fleeing to the EU, to western Europe had some more advantages for those “refugees”. Ukrainian “refugees” in western Europe are being given free healthcare and free housing and other benefits “regular” refugees don’t enjoy/receive. That news does spread around and it’s attracting more “refugees” from the Ukraine. No wonder the country is bleeding men who otherwise would be able to be drafted into the ukrainian army. No wonder, ukrainian “recuiters” have to “hijack” men from the streets of cities and towns in the Ukraine in order to fullfill their “requiting” quotas.
In that regard the EU and governments of the EU has dome more harm to the Ukraine than the EU is willing to admit.
All this comes on top of the fact that the Ukraine was already in the proces of a shrinking population. The war only made the ukrainian population shrink even at a faster rate.

Posted by: WMG | Feb 29 2024 23:00 utc | 198

Martyanov lives in US. As an almost ever true rule, all commentators from the anglosphere speak bullshit about France. They have as much understanding of it as a 14 years old French informed by the media.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 29 2024 4:15 utc | 101
If this serves as a good counterexample, The American Conservative opposed the Iraq War of 2003 and commended France for refusing to fight in that fool’s errand.
Other than that, I used to be an Anglophile up until 2017 when I read about the Francophobia in England and the whole “Freedom Fries” thing the USA dabbled in. Apart from opening my eyes to the malfeasance of the CIA, MI6, NATO and the EU, it gave me a greater appreciation for Russia, notwithstanding the English-language Russian media some of whose readers regurgitate the same Francophobic tropes as the Anglo-American MSM.
How and why Martyanov chose to move to the USA, I don’t know (at least the Saker had an alibi).
But I digress.

Posted by: joey_n | Feb 29 2024 23:25 utc | 200