Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 28, 2024

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-064

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on February 28, 2024 at 17:09 UTC | Permalink

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 28 Feb 2024 by 19:02⚡️

🔻#Kherson Direction:
🟡In #Krynki, the AFU are trying to bring reserves in. By a diversionary manoeuvre, they thought to pull our forces to the #Peschanovka - #Podstepnoye site. The plan failed. Moreover, our forces have reduced the grey zone west of Cossack Camps. There are fights ongoing in the #Krynki village itself.

🔻#Zaporozhye Direction:
🟡In the #Orekhov Section, our army again expanded the control zone in the western and southern parts of #Rabotino. But in the north, the AFU managed to hold positions under heavy fire from our artillery.
📌 It must be understood that there is virtually nothing left of the village itself. For the AFU this site is important for maintaining heights. Having lost them, they will have to retreat at least 5 km and finally say goodbye to the meagre successes of the "counteroffensive".
🟡In the #Gulyaypole Section, in the area near #Gulyaypole, there is also a movement of our army, but its prospects are still unclear, our forces do not have a large grouping there.

🔻#SouthDonetsk Direction:
🟡In the #Maryinka Sector, in #Novomikhaylovka, many AFUshniks surrender under air bomb attacks. Footage of damaged Russian equipment is spreading online. Despite this, those on the other side of the front admit that their garrison will suffer the same fate as #Avdeyevka. Combat work is underway at #Krasnogorovka. Ours have crossed the railway line, fighting is going on at the Car Repair Plant, on the approaches to the main fortified area, the Refractory Plant.

🔻#Avdeyevka Direction:
🟡In the #Orlovka Sector, our troops managed to storm half of #Orlovka and take control of a section of the #Berdychi - #Tonenkoye road that runs across the village. That is, the AFU logistics is disrupted. In #Tonenkoye, the AFU are gradually retreating, they have only one dirt road left to #Umanskoye. In #Berdychi, our troops clung to the eastern outskirts.
📌 The order of the AFU is to hold the defence along the #Berdychi - #Semenovka #Umanskoye line along the cascade of reservoirs. Probably, the AFU command hopes to gain time and prepare the defence line of #Ocheretino - #Kamyshevka - #Karlovka villages at heights and covered with large reservoirs.

🔻#Bakhmut Direction:
🟡In the "Chasov Yar" Sector, our Forces are assaulting the AFU positions in #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye), about half of the village is behind ours.
📌 Information about the full liberation and withdrawal of the AFU from the field has not been confirmed, but this is a matter of the near future.

🔻#Svatovo Direction:
🟡In the #Seversk Sector, without changes in the frontline.
🟡In the #Liman Sector, the AFU in #Sinkovka are trying to attack in small groups, maneuvering, trying to create an imitation of large numbers. Ours are going around the village from the west, but so far without much success.
🟡In the #Kupyansk Sector, also no changes.

☠️ The AFU wounded a resident by shelling in #Gorlovka, and five in #Suzemki. UAVs were shot down again over Russian regions.

💥 Our Aerospace Forces attacked the headquarters of the AFU Donetsk Grouping in #Pokrovsk. In #Odessa, Geraniums hit the port infrastructure, and a naval drone warehouse was previously hit. In the #Kharkov region, there were attacks on warehouses and deployment sites and so far in the Ukrainian part of the #DPR.


https://t.me/sitreports/23742

Posted by: Down South | Feb 28 2024 17:22 utc | 1

As military analysts predicted, after the fall of Avdeevka, the Donbass front became the main one for the Ukrainian Armed Forces at this stage of the war.

The Russian army continues to develop its offensive, and the operation to capture Avdeevka was not just a success for the enemy, but also a big blow for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian army managed to capture the main fortified area of ​​the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which had been preparing for battle for about 10 years. The settlement of Severnoye near Avdeevka is also occupied by the Russian army. The Russian Armed Forces entered the settlement. Berdychi and Tonenkoye, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces are retreating in Orlovka. At the same time, which is typical, Ukraine does not have a second line of defense - this is openly stated by the chief editor of Censor, Yuri Butusov, who back in November 2023 declared the need to prepare one. That is, now the front is steadily moving south.

The situation is difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and to the north, in the area of ​​Chasov Yar - the village of Ivanovskoye, the main outpost between Chasov Yar and Bakhmut, has already been half taken under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

As we see, the loss of reserves and the poor command of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky began to seriously affect the situation. The destruction of one group or another has become a matter of time, and losses in positions where the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have time to gain a foothold are unacceptably high.


https://t.me/rezident_ua/21837
Russia found a weak spot in the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

With the liberation of the settlement of Petrovskoye (Ukrainian name - Stepovoye), the front near Avdeevka aligned along the line Petrovskoye - Lastochkino - Severnoye - Vodyanoye. One can judge the “domino effect” after the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Avdiivka on February 17. In just 11 days, the Russian army occupied several settlements at once, which the enemy abandoned so as not to be surrounded. And we will probably borrow a few more in the coming days.

Obviously, we have found a weak point in the battle formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Now, in order to prevent the collapse of the front, the Ukrainians will be forced to transfer reinforcements here from neighboring areas. And this, in turn, creates a window of opportunity for us to make breakthroughs elsewhere. And the greater the losses the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffer, the more difficult it will become for them to “plug the holes with their bodies.” The Russian army continues to advance.


https://t.me/geromanat/21564

Posted by: Down South | Feb 28 2024 17:25 utc | 2

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 “🅾️brave” complete the assault on Orlovka beyond Avdeevka, the enemy is fleeing!
▪️The forces of the “Center” group with attached units of 1 AK broke through to Orlovka a couple of days after the liberation of Lastochkino.
▪️Yesterday, Russian fighters had already gained a foothold on the outskirts and began to move forward from house to house.
▪️This morning our soldiers were already at the school in the southeastern part of the village, approaching its center.
▪️Powerful blows were delivered these days to the part of the village occupied by the enemy.
▪️In the afternoon it became known that at least some of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to flee from the village.
▪️Now information is coming that the 114th brigade with the forces of the Central Military District is completing the defeat of the enemy.
▪️Also, the Russian Armed Forces continue the assault on Tonenky and Berdych, heavy fighting is underway.

https://t.me/geromanat/21575

Posted by: Down South | Feb 28 2024 17:29 utc | 3

Saying this war would be 'Russia vs. NATO' misses what is near to coming about. One could get only a little closer saying it would be "Russian Armed Forces vs. NATO."
Why not try the truth, "Russia vs. Western Europe?"
Understandably, terrifying.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Feb 28 2024 17:40 utc | 4

President Micron hosted a clutch of fools yesterday pretending they were going to do something. The snag is that the only intelligent things to do are mentally impossible for them, so they are stuck contemplating only palpably stupid and/or futile things.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Feb 28 2024 17:43 utc | 5

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Feb 28 2024 17:40 utc | 5

Is US or collective west Vs Russia or Row.

Collective west is loosing bad in Ukraine, not winning in ME.

It will take time, maybe decades but collective west and US is doomed.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 28 2024 17:44 utc | 6

The PMR situation can blow up very rapidly.

This is how the war started originally -- the DNR and LNR asked Russia for protection. The reason they did it when they did being that there was a large Ukronazi army gathered and ready to invade and slaughter them all.

Looks like NATO has been gearing up to now play the Transnistria card, which is presumably why the all-PMR deputy council had to gather (for the first time in 18 years) and ask for protection from Russia. I already see rumors of mobilization in Moldova.

But I can't imagine they did this without consulting and coordinating with the Kremlin first through unofficial channels.

Which means that the Kremlin presumably does have plans for what to do kinetically in case the PMR is attacked.

And that is where things get really scary, because obviously Russian forces are 250 kilometers away and on the wrong side of the river, so there is nothing they can do other than missile launches. But what kind of missiles are those going to have to be to actually protect the PMR?

The alternative is 600,000 people slaughtered, which the Kremlin cannot allow...

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 17:45 utc | 7

Kit Klarenberg with commentary on a 'timely' piece run by Politico a few weeks ago.

https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/collapsing-empire-how-us-broke-kosovo?

No need for me to draw the comparisons to Ukraine (both Kit and Politico do, of course). But I did want to confess I had absolutely no idea that the place is full of statues and streets named after American neocons! Crazy. Wonder if Kiev will rename their main avenue after Joe Biden.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 28 2024 17:57 utc | 8

In the long run, the plan is the complete obliteration of Europe the way you know it. Ever wonder why in the last 2 years so many companies [including German industrial base] are fleeing to the US along with billions in capital outflows.

Posted by: AI | Feb 28 2024 18:00 utc | 9

Why not try the truth, "Russia vs. Western Europe?"

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Feb 28 2024 17:40 utc | 5

---

Because "Western Europe" is not sovereign.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 28 2024 18:01 utc | 10

...Macron is losing everywhere, so he is raising the stakes. A huge number of NATO troops are already in the Ukraine, they are just trying to legalize their presence there to gradually get Europeans used to the thought that sooner or later they will have to fight in the Ukraine... - YURI PODOLYAKA

https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/1713

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 18:03 utc | 11

Posted by: AI | Feb 28 2024 18:00 utc | 10

Exactly. See that article I linked just prior to your comment. That's exactly what is going to happen first to Ukraine and then wherever else the corrupt warmonger profiteers see an opportunity (including ones made themselves). Disaster capitalism with the ultimate aim of funneling money back to (mostly) American profiteers.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Feb 28 2024 18:06 utc | 12

🇵🇱🏴‍☠️🇺🇦Poland prepares full closure of border with Ukraine.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/102219

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 28 2024 18:08 utc | 13

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 17:45 utc | 8

Keep it in your pants that this is another of your wet dreams that will end in delusion.

Who and how will kill all of the transinstrian population?

Keep in mind that even the usukis didn't succeed in killing 600000 in Gaza in 5 months.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 28 2024 18:41 utc | 14

Rocky Road to Dedollarization: Sergei Glazyev Interview

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240228/rocky-road-to-dedollarization-sergei-glazyev-interview--1117034183.html

https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/10287

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 18:53 utc | 15

There are news that Tonenke has supposedly been liberated, and AFU retreating from Orlivka. There is nothing but 10km of empty fields to the west.

That could be a prelude that also puts Pervomaiske in encirclement also from the north and potentially north-west.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 19:05 utc | 16

N-tv Germany today

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Moskau-raeumt-Schutz-seiner-Buerger-Prioritaet-ein-article24771252.html

They re preparing western public for war with Russia

Pro-Russian separatists in the breakaway region of Transnistria are asking Moscow for help because of an alleged threat from Moldova. For Joachim Weber, the justification is nothing more than “outright nonsense”. The security expert suspects that Russia is using it as an excuse to "subjugate more areas of the country."
In a resolution, separatists in the breakaway region of Transnistria ask Moscow for help. Russia reacts promptly. The Kremlin's words do not calm the situation. Moldova speaks of propaganda.

Russia has described "protecting" residents of the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria as a "priority". Russian news agencies quoted the Foreign Ministry in Moscow as saying "protecting the interests of Transnistrian residents, our compatriots, is one of the priorities." The pro-Russian separatists in the region had previously asked Russia for “protection” from Moldova.
Wegen einer angeblichen Bedrohung aus Moldau bitten prorussische Separatisten in der abtrünnigen Region Transnistrien Moskau um Hilfe. Für Joachim Weber ist die Begründung nichts weiter als "ausgesprochener Unsinn". Der Sicherheitsexperte vermutet eher einen Vorwand Russlands, "sich weitere Landstriche zu unterwerfen".

INTERESTING!
Kosovo was a breakaway region but …….?
Only lying lying & lying
How do u wan to negotiate with pathological liars?

https://youtu.be/ZtkQYRlXMNU?si=iVCpSaBsRuO7ijNp

In einer Resolution bitten Separatisten in der abtrünnigen Region Transnistrien Moskau um Hilfe. Russland reagiert prompt. Die Worte des Kreml sorgen nicht für eine Beruhigung der Lage. Moldau spricht von Propaganda.

Russland hat den "Schutz" der Bewohner der abtrünnigen moldauischen Region Transnistrien als eine "Priorität" bezeichnet. Russische Nachrichtenagenturen zitierten das Außenministerium in Moskau mit den Worten, "der Schutz der Interessen der Bewohner Transnistriens, unserer Landsleute, ist eine der Prioritäten". Zuvor hatten die pro-russischen Separatisten in der Region Russland um "Schutz" gegenüber Moldau gebeten.

Posted by: SlowSoft | Feb 28 2024 19:09 utc | 17

Andrei Martyanov notes that


"The problem with Macron is that he is a bank teller, Napoleon was an artillery officer. And he would do just fine if he would stay away from Russia, but no-o-o, he wanted it all and as a result Russians entered Paris in 1814. Russians do not want to enter Paris--there is nothing much to do there--St.Petersburg will do just fine, but if Macron wants the war with Russia, Russians may oblige. With France's 30 operational tanks and who knows how many... tens of Rafales flying--they will get a very warm reception. Melenchon also better learn about strategic ABM and why French nuclear deterrent which is operationally valid only through 4 SSBNs of Triomhant class may not be even that "deterring". I omit here 54 ASMP air-to-ground missiles with the range of 300 kilometers. Ah, this COFM (Correlation Of Forces and Means)--Russians love to calculate it.

So, the result is--French chihuahua barked and everyone laughed. But French are determined, LOL."

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/02/there-is-huge-difference.html

But perhaps Finian Cunningham puts it best; some few years ago, the French President characterised NATO as a "brain-dead" organization. And he had a very good point, which led some to believe that Macron was showing better sense than the rest of the NATO chihuahua.

Who's Brain-Dead Now, Macron?

Alas, that good sense has abandoned the French President.

Posted by: N Hanrahan | Feb 28 2024 19:10 utc | 18

Aurelien has another Must Read about the 'sediment' - the myriad of old, unexamined statements, assumptions, theories, prejudices, etc, upon which the latest round of fatuities are precariously perched. Makes the 404 morass in which the West flounders, a little more understandable, if not forgivable.

Posted by: Waymad | Feb 28 2024 19:22 utc | 19

And he would do just fine if he would stay away from Russia, but no-o-o, he wanted it all
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/02/there-is-huge-difference.html

Posted by: N Hanrahan | Feb 28 2024 19:10 utc | 19

Those, who want all, have always nothing at the end. (Manstein, Verlorene Siege)

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 28 2024 19:23 utc | 20

Posted by: N Hanrahan | Feb 28 2024 19:10 utc | 19

The problem with Andrei Martyanov is that he does know nothing about france... Melanchon is the guy that fight almost alone against the craziets warmongers.
So, pretending to know about french politics and taking Melanchon for Macron and vice versa is totally irresponsible.
This is not the first time I see that Andrei Martyanov pretends to know about france and tell this kind of bullshit. Beside that this guy is just full of himself.

Posted by: Un Cop Era | Feb 28 2024 19:33 utc | 21

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 18:53 utc | 16

I really like Sergei Glazyev. He comes at things from the Keynsian tradition. You can tell in the link you posted he is not a fan of mythical neoclassical equilibrium models ( IMF).

This link here is exactly what Glazyev is talking about.

http://www.bondeconomics.com/2024/02/what-is-neoclassical-economics.html#more

Can't wait to see what they come up with and gets analysed via a MMT lens. Interest rate targeting will definitely be a problem to what he is trying to achieve.

The spot and forward price for a non perishable commodity imply all storage costs, including interest expense. Therefore, with a permanent zero-rate policy, and assuming no other storage costs, the spot price of a commodity and its price for delivery any time in the future is the same.

Why MMT'rs advocate for ZIRP - permanent zero rate policy, stop issuing debt completely and issue granny bonds to allow the domestic population to save.

However, if rates were, say, 10%, the price of those commodities for delivery in the future would be 10% (annualised) higher. That is, a 10% rate implies a 10% continuous increase in prices, which is the textbook definition of inflation! It is the term structure of risk free rates itself that mirrors a term structure of prices which feeds into both the costs of production as well as the ability to pre-sell at higher prices, thereby establishing, by definition, inflation.

Why Elvira Nabiullina has the whole interest targeting thing backwards. She is helping inflation every time she hikes interest rates. The cost of credit effects all goods and services as the increased cost to borrow gets passed onto the consumer via higher prices.

Along with It is the term structure of risk free rates itself that mirrors a term structure of prices which feeds into both the costs of production as well as the ability to pre-sell at higher prices, thereby establishing, by definition, inflation.

And of course increased interest payments to those who hold government bonds = fiscal stimulas.

The natural rate of interest is zero

Here:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=elP2tfVDj-o&pp=ygUkV2FycmVuIG1vc2xlciBpbnRlcmVzdCBhbmQgaW5mbGF0aW9u

I'm not sure reading what Glazyev is saying if he gets it.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Feb 28 2024 19:34 utc | 22

I meant Mélenchon, not Melanchon...
JEAN-LUC MÉLENCHON: La France doit négocier la paix en Ukraine

Posted by: Un Cop Era | Feb 28 2024 19:42 utc | 23

The Russians have basically made Ukrainian forces play whack-a-mole, which is wearing the Ukrainians out rapidly, lacking a pool of reserves...Look for a cascading collapse in the next months....

Posted by: pyrrhus | Feb 28 2024 19:49 utc | 24

@sb 8

Re: what kind of missles?

Don't be silly russia isn't nuking moldova for it. They can easily hit a few concentration points with regular missles. I'd bet moldova doesn't have many weapons or soldiers it wouldn't take much to tilt the balance so they lose another war against transdinistria.

With ukraine soaking up so many resources there won't be a lot of nato supplies coming in. My guess is if a first push bogs down moldova won't have long term staying power and will try to freeze the conflict again.

If ukraine really does intervene I would expect an end to the smo and a full declaration of war with every volunteer and russian conscript attacking all areas of the front in ukraine.

Which might be successful at this stage now.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 28 2024 19:58 utc | 25

Russian forces are completing the assault on Orlovka beyond Avdeevka, the enemy is fleeing!
The forces of the Center group broke through to Orlovka a couple of days after the liberation of Lastochkino.
Yesterday, Russian fighters had already gained a foothold on the outskirts and began to move forward from house to house.
This morning our soldiers were already at the school in the southeastern part of the village, approaching its center.
Powerful blows were delivered to the enemy-occupied part of the village these days.
In the afternoon, it became known that the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fled the village.
Information is now coming in that the 114th brigade with the forces of the Central Military District is completing the liberation of the settlement.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation also continue to storm Tonenke and Berdych, heavy fighting is underway.
t.me/RVvoenkor

Posted by: MiniMO | Feb 28 2024 20:00 utc | 26

The alternative is 600,000 people slaughtered

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 17:45 utc | 8

Again a very stupid remark. Even after 5 months the genocide in Gaza does not show such amounts despite the very big differences with the means of destruction.

Looks like, rumors, in case, if, if , if... it is all this agent provocateur has to offer.

Typical.

Posted by: Naive | Feb 28 2024 20:19 utc | 27

🇵🇱🏴‍☠️🇺🇦Poland prepares full closure of border with Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/102219
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 28 2024 18:08 utc | 14

Presumably to keep Ukrainians in Ukraine, not to keep them from leaving Poland.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 28 2024 20:37 utc | 28

There are news that Tonenke has supposedly been liberated, and AFU retreating from Orlivka. There is nothing but 10km of empty fields to the west.

That could be a prelude that also puts Pervomaiske in encirclement also from the north and potentially north-west.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 19:05 utc | 17

All good if confirmed.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 28 2024 20:37 utc | 29

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 28 2024 18:08 utc | 14

Donald Tusk is the representative of globo-homo bloc. Morawieczki wasn't necessarily, he was very anti-EU.

If one had to guess, most likely the border will be closed for one or many of following:

a) EU/Polish farmer protests are such a big issue for Ursula VDL before 'election'
b) They see AFU is losing, and want to guarantee as many Ukrainians get drafted and slaughtered while the game still lasts (before perhaps eventual coup and losing control of Kiev and nazis killed by partisans etc.)
c) Preparation to send Nato 'peacekeeping force', and Ukrainians will get sent to front
d) Nato preparing takeover of west

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 20:41 utc | 30

The Russians have basically made Ukrainian forces play whack-a-mole, which is wearing the Ukrainians out rapidly
Posted by: pyrrhus | Feb 28 2024 19:49 utc | 25

It is fascinating how, probably the great minds from Uk, still order attacks on boats, again and again, in different places. It was another one now, 4 boats with 20 kamikaze, or something like that. Must be team tiktok in action.

Posted by: rk | Feb 28 2024 20:43 utc | 31

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecs9IFzfj6Q

Ukraine lied about building defenses and then retreating to them. Photos show they don't exist. More evidence that they are simply retreating with no end in sight.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 28 2024 20:45 utc | 32

"So, pretending to know about french politics and taking Mélenchon for Macron and vice versa is totally irresponsible."

Posted by: Un Cop Era | Feb 28 2024 19:33 utc | 22

This isn't entirely clear. Are you claiming that Martyanov mixed the two politicians up?

Also, the subsequent link you gave didn't put Mélenchon in a particularly good light - if only because his interlocutor interrupted him so many times that he could not complete a sentence. That's not an interview; it's an interrogation. I got almost nothing from that in translation.

"This is not the first time I see that Andrei Martyanov pretends to know about france and tell this kind of bullshit. Beside that this guy is just full of himself."

ha ha. No problem. I still find some of what he provides useful and I just need to separate the wheat from the chaff. As with everybody else.

Cheers.

Posted by: N Hanrahan | Feb 28 2024 20:49 utc | 33

🇵🇱🏴‍☠️🇺🇦Poland prepares full closure of border with Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/102219
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 28 2024 18:08 utc | 14

Bu,bu,bu, but what about that Polish law last year giving citizenship rights to Ukraine, and vice versa, making them a brotherly united people? :_( So sad!

Oh, I know! This is how Poland prevents Ukrainian machine-alcohol-grade grain from emigrating across the border. ;) Clever. This way they won't take the jobs of Polish grain. This way the grains won't get in knife fights in the bread aisle.

Posted by: titmouse | Feb 28 2024 20:54 utc | 34

Posted by: N Hanrahan | Feb 28 2024 20:49 utc | 35

The video is just to show that Mélenchon is not allowed to express himself on the medias, for the reason that he express some views for peace and it is not acceptable. I have not see more than 10 seconds of the video. I do not see anymore the mainstream lies for over 10 years. So, the link to the video was just to show you how the warmongers are behaving when facing someone who is on the peace side. And again, Martianov does make confusion; and I know for sure that the only knowledge he gets about france or french politics is just from the mainstream media - it prooves me that this guy is really not brilliant. And yes,he wrote Mélenchon instead of Macron, this is what I do understand - but maybe you know more, so please explain me what is wrong with Mélenchon regarding Ukraine war, if not, avoid spreading far right propaganda.

Posted by: Un Cop Era | Feb 28 2024 21:05 utc | 35

but no-o-o, he wanted it all and as a result Russians entered Paris in 1814.


Posted by: N Hanrahan | Feb 28 2024 19:10 utc | 19

A lot of trouble might have been avoided if they'd stayed.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 28 2024 21:06 utc | 36

Well, I do my best to be clear. I know as well that it is not the case - sorry for that. But if you read the mainstream media in france, Mélenchon is the guy they have to kill because he is the only one to not be a sionist.

Posted by: Un Cop Era | Feb 28 2024 21:12 utc | 37

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 28 2024 19:58 utc | 26


I believe a Russian Guards Armored Division is stationed in Transnistria. Given that they're Russian, they are probably well dug in by now. A military attack on Transnistria would require a lot of troops and supporting fires to have any chance of success, and would incur great losses. I don't see anyone doing that from either direction. The Romanians are the only ones with the capacity to give it a go, and I imagine all their airfields would be smoking ruins by the time they crossed into Moldova. Romania can't afford to initiate a shooting war with Russia. NATO won't come to their aid, they'll move their assets to safety.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 28 2024 21:13 utc | 38

Krynky and this, what are they up to??? It's not madness, they are up to something they think very important. Guess we'll have to wait 20ys after it's all over for someone to write the big book on the war to explain it:

https://t.me/ChDambiev/28194

Here's a map:

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/102248

I live on the water and I know townies that save half their lives to buy a boat like that, most just dream of it, the USA and UK are giving these thing away by the hundreds if not thousands, like rubber duckies.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 21:16 utc | 39

Un Cop Era | Feb 28 2024 21:12 utc | 39

No doubt there is much wrong with Melenchon. Just as there was with Corbyn's confused and ineffective
attempts to transform the Labour Party.
But both are so much better than anything competing with them that they deserve our almost unconditional support. Thank you for reminding people that there is a real revolutionary tradition in France.
Jean Jaures also made errors but he will be remembered eternally for fighting against war.

Posted by: bevin | Feb 28 2024 21:18 utc | 40

Who and how will kill all of the transinstrian population?

Keep in mind that even the usukis didn't succeed in killing 600000 in Gaza in 5 months.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 28 2024 18:41 utc | 15

Again a very stupid remark. Even after 5 months the genocide in Gaza does not show such amounts despite the very big differences with the means of destruction.

Looks like, rumors, in case, if, if , if... it is all this agent provocateur has to offer.

Typical.
Posted by: Naive | Feb 28 2024 20:19 utc | 28

I wasn't aware Gaza has been deblockaded, IDF has completely pulled out, food and medicine are streaming in, they are rebuilding, and there will be no more victims.

As to who will slaughter the people in the PMR, it will be a mixture of Ukronazi death squads, NATO soldiers, and various mercenaries. Same thing that happened in Kharkov in September 2022, but much more brutal and thorough.

You have to understand what the PMR is, and why it is such a red rag to the UkroNATONazi bull.

First, look at the map. The very existence of a Russian region there reveals how fake the whole Ukrainian nationalist project is. Because how it is that Ukrainians are ubermensch who have nothing to do with the subhuman Russian orcs, and how is that there are no Russians in e.g. Odessa, yet there is this Russian region on the other side of Ukraine that was never invaded by Russia?

Of course, the whole idiocy about the Ukrainian ubermensch is already an absurd proposition the moment one learns that Zelensky is a Russian Jew, Yermak's parents are from Leningrad and still live in Russia, the commander of the AFU is a Russian, whose parents and brother live in Russia, Danilov is a Russian from Lugansk whose brother is a colonel in the FSB, etc. etc. But those are details that one has to actively learn, which most people don't.

Second, the PMR has kept all the Soviet symbols. It has a hammer and a sickle in its flag, Lenin statues are everywhere, the coat of arms is the old Soviet one with red star, the hammer and the sickle and the sheaves of wheat, and it's everywhere too, etc. etc. Sure, it has been surviving in cutthroat capitalism mode, by being the smuggling capital of the world, for the last three decades, but still, it has kept all those symbols. Now unleash a bunch of Nazi thugs from Ukraine and Europe on that Soviet island frozen in time, and you can imagine what will happen...

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 21:22 utc | 41

The Empire is preparing the dirty vassal states for full support to Ukraine.
Today Serbian president promised that the production of artillery shells would be increased to 100% of the capacities. That all goes to Ukraine.

Posted by: vargas | Feb 28 2024 21:25 utc | 42

@sb 8

Re: what kind of missles?

Don't be silly russia isn't nuking moldova for it. They can easily hit a few concentration points with regular missles. I'd bet moldova doesn't have many weapons or soldiers it wouldn't take much to tilt the balance so they lose another war against transdinistria.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 28 2024 19:58 utc | 26

Moldova doesn't have the soldiers or the weapons. It's why the PMR is a thing in the first place -- cis-Nistria was agrictulural, trans-Nistria was the industrial center, and all the weapons were there too. So when they split up Moldova didn't have the military capacity to retake it.

BTW, the PMR did not split from independent Moldova, it split off a year BEFORE Moldova declared independence, when they were both inside the USSR. Which Gorbachev was extremely pissed about, and the Kremlin tried very hard to push them back inside Moldova. In fact, the Kremlin kept trying to do that all the way into the early 00s.

So it won't be Moldova retaking it. It won't be the AFU on its own either, they will need to send 40-50K to do that, which they can't afford right now.

It will be mostly Romanian soldiers with assistance from other NATO forces and some of the particularly brutal AFU Nazis that otherwise stay in the rear. In fact for the last couple years Moldova has been filling up with Americans and other NATO scum, precisely in preparation for escalation against the PRM (and presumably, Odessa too eventually).

That should answer your question who those missiles will be for.

P.S. That Khmelnytskyi ammo depot in May last year aside, in which no civilians or civilian infrastructure were harmed, it is firm Russian policy that they will not nuke any part of the former USSR. Moldova is still 15% Russian and 40-50% pro-Russian, nobody will bomb Kishinev.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 21:25 utc | 43

Posted by: Honzo @ 40

The also have a PMR militia that fought a civil war much like the Donbas militia in 2014. I just looked it up and it was ~10,000 strong plus Russian volunteers that came in support. That was early '90s so who knows what still exists of it, maybe it's bigger and better or maybe there's little left. I have no idea what the terrain is like, if it's mountainous then they can put up long, hard fight.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 21:28 utc | 44

The Zherebets river front is collapsing as well. Makeevka was liberated, and there's some prospects for Terny. That will either force the AFU between them and only a single bridge across the river to leave, or get encircled. Theoretically they might swim across the river but they will never get any equipment.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 21:38 utc | 45

@23 echo chamber

If demand goes down due to price increases from inflation, which they do, this means that price will then come down due to weakening demand and increasing competitiveness.

What continues to royally screw with this system of natural value-seeking is the fed's hand which continues to juice its Frankenstein prize-fighter (the American economy with an unlimited printing press).

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 28 2024 21:41 utc | 46

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 21:22 utc | 43

You have a lot of imagination. You imagine things which will not happen. You are doing what the western governments are doing since 2019-2020: instilling fear.

You are never commenting positive facts for Russia.

With every one of your comments, it is obvious that you are an agent provocateur.

Posted by: Naive | Feb 28 2024 21:46 utc | 47

P.S. That Khmelnytskyi ammo depot in May last year aside, in which no civilians or civilian infrastructure were harmed, it is firm Russian policy that they will not nuke any part of the former USSR. Moldova is still 15% Russian and 40-50% pro-Russian, nobody will bomb Kishinev.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 21:25 utc | 45

Are you implying Khmelnitsky was a nuke? It certainly looked like one. Some physicists have implied so as well.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1762815435043451142

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 21:51 utc | 48

I wasn't aware Gaza has been deblockaded, IDF has completely pulled out, food and medicine are streaming in, they are rebuilding, and there will be no more victims.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 21:22 utc | 43

Strawman fallacy.

Posted by: Naive | Feb 28 2024 21:51 utc | 49

Interesting homage to Russia today by William Schryver: The bitter pill of decisive strategic defeat

Posted by: Peter b | Feb 28 2024 22:01 utc | 50

Are you implying Khmelnitsky was a nuke? It certainly looked like one. Some physicists have implied so as well.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1762815435043451142

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 21:51 utc | 50

That was the one red line the Kremlin may actually have enforced semi-publicly.

If you recall, that happened after the UK sent the DU rounds, and then the Kremlin said that it will treat this as a radiological attack. And it was reportedly the DU rounds, plus possibly some Challenger tanks, that were in that depo and were vaporized.

They weren't seen on the battlefield after that.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 22:02 utc | 51

The also have a PMR militia that fought a civil war much like the Donbas militia in 2014. I just looked it up and it was ~10,000 strong plus Russian volunteers that came in support. That was early '90s so who knows what still exists of it, maybe it's bigger and better or maybe there's little left. I have no idea what the terrain is like, if it's mountainous then they can put up long, hard fight.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 21:28 utc | 46

It's as flat and low as it gets, and with zero strategic depth -- the PMR is a narrow strip of land barely 20 km wide.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 22:04 utc | 52

Alas, that good sense has abandoned the French President.

Posted by: N Hanrahan | Feb 28 2024 19:10 utc | 19

I mentioned the same yesterday.
The abandonment of good sense by the French.
What happened?
Macron is a total turd.
This isn't going to polish him up in the eyes of the French population.
There have been a raft of budget cuts however which are really pissing the French off with more to come.
That's the next flash point in France.

Posted by: jpc | Feb 28 2024 22:08 utc | 53

Khmelnitsky ammo depot was probably vaporized with an Iskander-M with 1-5 kT warhead (a very small one). That would ensure it gets the job done.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 22:10 utc | 54

What if PMR is a a Russian move?

Boom!

Posted by: Suresh | Feb 28 2024 22:17 utc | 55

shаdοwbanned @ 54

It's as flat and low as it gets, and with zero strategic depth -- the PMR is a narrow strip of land barely 20 km wide.

Then they're fucked. Russia will have to abandon them and deal with it at a later date.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 22:21 utc | 56

Khmelnitsky ammo depot was probably vaporized with an Iskander-M with 1-5 kT warhead (a very small one). That would ensure it gets the job done.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 22:10 utc | 56

There were satellite pictures of the crater a couple days later.

The nuclear simulator:

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

Reproduces it with a 1-2 kt surface explosion.

The ammo depot is at 49.451312889223374, 26.87617215485546.

As you can see, it consists of lots of separate caches, many of them isolated from each other with earthen embankments. That kind of configuration does not explode all at once like that, even if it did hold a couple thousand tons of ammunition, it is a series of secondary explosions.

However, it is also possible that NATO snuck in some tactical warheads there and Russia blew them up with a conventional strike, possibly not even being aware they were there. Notice that there are actually two huge explosions in the video, it's not just one. Although that really shouldn't happen as there are supposed to be all sorts of safeguards -- back when that ICBM silo blew up in 1980 in Arkansas the warhead shot up in the air and landed some distance away, but did not explode. There is a difference though -- it explosion came from below and ejected the warhead in the air. While if the explosion happens in such a way that it breaches the bomb casing and causes a cave in of the core, maybe it will actually trigger a chain reaction. I have no idea -- none of us knows these details.

But that should be kept in mind as a possibility too.

Because, of course, it is also possible that they snuck in many more than that, which have not yet exploded in such a spectacular fashion, and are ready to be fired at Moscow.

This is why missiles fired at central Russia is such an extremely serious matter, regardless of who does the firing.

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 22:45 utc | 57

Israeli Ambassador to the UN Calls Ukraine an "Ally" and Compares Russia to Hamas in Recent Speech

Israel's UN ambassador, Gilad Erdan, addressed Russia in a recent speech, declaring Israel's commitment to providing early warning systems against missiles for Ukraine and referring to Ukraine as an "ally." Erdan also drew parallels between Russia and Hamas, criticizing Russia for hosting a visit by Hamas in Moscow. This statement appears to signal a shift in the relationship between Putin and the Israeli Prime Minister, marking the end of their association. This move, reminiscent of Amir Weitmann's previous viral statement, where he warned that "Russia is going to pay the price," suggests a significant development in the diplomatic landscape.

Israel's supportive stance towards Ukraine may have broader implications, influencing discussions on military aid in the United States.

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/102954

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 22:47 utc | 58

I mentioned the same yesterday. The abandonment of good sense by the French. What happened?

Posted by: jpc | Feb 28 2024 22:08 utc | 55

I have been on pins and needles for the last couple days because of this.

Everybody knows what open war with Russia means.

Yet these lunatics are going for it.

How is that possible?

Well, there are three options, neither of them good:

1) They have indeed lost their minds completely
2) They know it's total madness, but are desperate enough to try it, hoping that the Kremlin will fold one again instead of wiping them out.
3) They in fact have some military-technical ace up their sleeves that they are confident about it ensuring victory.

There is no positive outcome here...

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 22:51 utc | 59

Did F16 arrive in Ukraine to shoot down Russian aircraft?
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1871921/russia-ukraine-war-air-force-losses

Posted by: magicmirror | Feb 28 2024 22:59 utc | 60

LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 22:47 utc | 60
*** Israeli Ambassador to the UN Calls Ukraine an "Ally" and Compares Russia to Hamas in Recent Speech ***

Putin is too under Zio-jewish control to even object, never mind retaliate.

Posted by: Cynic | Feb 28 2024 22:59 utc | 61

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 22:51 utc | 61

4) Maybe a known Global Player from North America has no problem with war, in europe. First sell them weapons (do they have some left?), then "Help" with credits.
By the way, this is was Nuland and Co wished for, before the SMO started.

Posted by: 600w | Feb 28 2024 23:04 utc | 62

Lightyears from home #60

It was widely reported that in the wake of Oct 7th a couple of hundred Israeli 'specialists' left the Ukraine theatre to defend their country.

On the other hand Putin has treated Israel very gently, as always. He could have done more than have a meeting with the political wing of Hamas, but he didn't. Otherwise Manpads would have taken out Israel jets.

Posted by: scepticalSOB | Feb 28 2024 23:04 utc | 63

Miona | Feb 28 2024 17:25 utc | 3
It’s over 40c here. I’m seeing plenty hot sweaty chicks.
More in the market for some cool. Thanks anyway.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 28 2024 23:07 utc | 64

Now, in order to prevent the collapse of the front, the Ukrainians will be forced to transfer reinforcements here from neighboring areas. And this, in turn, creates a window of opportunity for us to make breakthroughs elsewhere. And the greater the losses the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffer, the more difficult it will become for them to “plug the holes with their bodies.”

https://t.me/geromanat/21564
Posted by: Down South | Feb 28 2024 17:25 utc | 2

That's the key right there, for those posters who don't understand what the Russians are doing. There's nothing the Ukrainians can do except slightly delay the inevitable. And if rumors of a major Russian offensive coming up are true then that collapse accelerates.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 28 2024 23:07 utc | 65

Well, there are three options, neither of them good:

1) They have indeed lost their minds completely
2) They know it's total madness, but are desperate enough to try it, hoping that the Kremlin will fold one again instead of wiping them out.
3) They in fact have some military-technical ace up their sleeves that they are confident about it ensuring victory.

There is no positive outcome here...

Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 22:51 utc | 61

A fourth option Brave Sir Shadowbanned - they are posturing because they know Russia will win, and there's nothing they can do about it. When France can't even commit troops to reverse a coup in Niger, because the coup leaders backed Macron down, what makes you think the French have any will to send troops openly against Russia?

Posted by: James M. | Feb 28 2024 23:16 utc | 66

>>> Moved from wrong thread. Sorry for the double post.<<<

Dima speculated an interesting possible reason for EU troops in West Ukraine, tied-in to Poland's ongoing border restrictions of everything flowing east to west across it.

He figures: If Russia is going to sometime advance into Kharkiv, Odessa and elsewhere, there will be millions of anti-Russian Ukie migrants making a rush towards the EU ... which, as we know, is sick to death of those slimeballs. So, with Poland and France and Germany and the other "security agreements", perhaps non-fighting EU border security is the concept Macron was foreshadowing. Of course the EU can't say they're doing it to corral the Banderites and social climbers.! They're saying it is to "block Russia attacking Europe" ... [eye roll]. It might be that NATO is, behind the scenes, greenlighting a sort of EU Coalition Army which is not bound by NATO rules and doesnt LOOK LIKE it is declaring war on Russia. Imo, the so-called security agreements are just flexi-docs to be used however the mood flows.

Plus, with the present Transnistria-Moldova tension, EU countries have multiple reasons to slip boots into Ukraine without a big hoo-ha, all to thwart Russia moving to protect PMR.

Plus, as some think, the current NATO exercises (Jan-May) are readiness against Russia moving towards Odessa. The Black Sea coast is precious to the US, so expect them to defend it anyway they can.

Conclusion: This SMO/war is far, far from over. People seem to ignore that Ukr still has 300k-500k troops in the field; another 500k it wants to mobilise; innumerable ground weapons and *some ammo* for it; some planes; some AD; lots of allies' ISR; lots of NATO helpers; lots of FPVs; and, worst of all, an intractable fantasy to win. So, lots of little falling villages in the Donbass DOES NOT signal the end is near for Ukraine nor happy days yet for Moscow.

Please everyone, stop thinking the end for Ukraine is just one more fallen stronghold away. There's still a LOT MORE demilitarisation to go.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 28 2024 22:00 utc | 65

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 28 2024 23:22 utc | 67

"If demand goes down due to price increases from inflation, which they do, this means that price will then come down due to weakening demand and increasing competitiveness.

What continues to royally screw with this system of natural value-seeking is the fed's hand which continues to juice its Frankenstein prize-fighter (the American economy with an unlimited printing press)."

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 28 2024 21:41 utc | 48

That's ideological drivel. Let's look at the real world shall we.

The neoclassical Keynsian, monetarist and Austrian view still believes that the economy tends to fix itself. If we just sit back economic growth will go back to its maximum. Which is exactly what you are saying in your first paragraph.

Unemployment will drop to 2% what we consider full employment That There are no business cycles. Remember that when the ideologues claimed the business cycle is dead. Yes, of course you remember but like 2008 it has been edited from memory.

However, you could have the purist free market economy in the world but still have big unemployment numbers because the system tends to move towards breakdown.

Why ? Why does the system tend to move towards breakdown ?

Why can’t it be that higher wages force firms to invest in better management techniques and the most advanced technologies in order to get the most out of their higher cost labour?

Why ?

That’s known as the paradox of productivity. Productivity improvements just lead to falling prices, so firms try to avoid doing productivity improvements and prefer to try and obtain monopoly power instead. That’s what a ‘market niche’ is.

Oh boy have we seen this monopoly power as the public sector was transformed into rent seeking monopolies.

Higher wages will lead to some firms failing, which releases people onto the labour market, driving down wages. If you try to hold those jobs up, and force losses onto the other side you end up with an investment strike and the whole house of cards collapses into stagflation.

Remember those privatised public services threatening the government with investment strikes after the pandemic. I do. Yes, of course you do.

Failing to match higher wages with higher product *must* result in *both* investment capital and the demanding wage earners taking a cold bath. The economic system is a referee. It must not favour either side in the football match.

And why would firms in a competitive capitalistic system ever try to avoid productivity improvements?

Simple-

Compare the cost of a concert violinist to a loaf of bread in the 19th century vs today. That’s what productivity increases do over time – because it takes less human time to produce an item, and time is really what everything ends up being priced in.

That’s the paradox of productivity. Productivity improvements ultimately leads to cheaper prices not increased profits. Because that’s what competition is there to do. The profits can go further – in that they can buy more stuff. But capitalists like to accumulate units of account - Money.

In essence the dynamics of pure competition leads to an oversupply in the market which brings prices down until firms start to go bust to eliminate the oversupply. Therefore market players try to stop competition happening by constantly seeking a monopoly perch on which to extract rent.

Oh boy we have we seen this happening time and time again. As the monopoly and mergers commission wave through merger after merger in the public and private sector.

The myths of free market beliefs say it all sorts itself out. It clearly doesn’t. The system has to force competition onto essentially reluctant players, and eliminating the clarion call of “what about the jobs” is one way of doing that – let bad firms go bust.

A company that can produce more with the same inputs (costs) is going to do that if there is a market for their product.

That’s the huge problem, there isn’t. Because the costs is the income that is used to buy the product (in aggregate).

If you expand output then you are selling to the same income which implies that the price must go down to shift the increased amount of stuff. Theoretically their competition will eventually learn to do the same and the excess profit will disappear.

Not theoretically. This is exactly what happens. The dynamics of market share maintenance kicks in and prices go down. You get a short uplift and then a nose dive. When you have been in business long enough you know it is better to find a niche than run up and down this escalator. Because items are ultimately priced in a person’s time used to make them. When it boils down to it actual demand must match actual supply at the point of EFFECTIVE demand.

What did Adam Smith REALLY say about it. The invisible hand

Here:

https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/02/mmp-blog-38-mmt-for-austrians.html

Can you pass it onto that nutter in Argentina when you see him.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Feb 28 2024 23:24 utc | 68

It's pretty clear that the NATO-sponsored Ukrainian gov was commiting slow motion ethnic cleansing in Donbas et al, which would only have accelerated and intensified even more over time, and that the MSM, effectively fully NATO-owned, would have given it the Gaza genocide exculpatory whitewashing treatment x 10, until the Ukrainian ultra-nationalist mission was done. And only after it was fully achieved (the slow motion anti-ethnic Russian decimation or expulsion of the native Russian population), would the prestige MSM, e.g. ask certain navel gazing questions about certain problematic excesses committed by the new 'democratic' Western-oriented Ukraine.

The baldfaced, NATO-facilitated, Israeli terror war in Gaza is precisely what was being prepared and actuated against Donbas in exponentializing lethality. However it was and would have continued to be entirely overlooked or outright denied by the Western MSM, thereby making them complicit by both ommission and commission. Russia's technically illegal invasion of Ukraine is incomparably less illegal than what Israel is presently doing in Gaza and in no manner racist—in the case of Russia—indeed it's rather anti-racist.

The delayed or retrospective lesson of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is this: if Eastern nations don't respond in time or in sufficient force to US-led Western military aggression, then Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Gaza potentially await, and the Western MSM will be utterly complicit in such genocidal neo-imperialist devastation until a moment of a posteriori convenience is achieved, at which point the New York Times might deign to pour over the ashes of US imperialism's post Cold War strategy of chaos. To wit, imperialism on the cheap: just control the resources and render the nation-state/civilization a Mad Max zone of maximal chaos, of no mercantile use to any other power, whether European or East Asian.

Posted by: Ludo | Feb 28 2024 23:37 utc | 69

Then they're fucked. Russia will have to abandon them and deal with it at a later date.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 22:21 utc | 58

https://www.german-economic-team.com/en/newsletter/war-in-ukraine-moldova-to-face-severe-economic-shock/

Maybe there is a "banana" solution (Ecuador).

Posted by: 600w | Feb 28 2024 23:43 utc | 70

@62

I read the Express article in your link. It's claiming that Ukraine shot down ten Su-34's and Su-35's in the days since Avdeevka fell.

But how many of these shoot-downs have been verified? I may be wrong, but I'm fairly certain that only one or two have been confirmed by sources other than the AFU, which has a history of lying in its press releases.

Remember, because of Avdeevka, the Ukrainian army is in big trouble. For this reason, Western media - under the influence of the Biden Administration, the State Department, and Brussels - is now producing a spate of spurious news reports portraying the war as a Ukrainian "victory in the making."

US/NATO and Kiev are desperate to prevent the American and European public from losing faith in Ukraine's military prospects now that it's abundantly clear that the AFU is being defeated.

If anyone has seen confirmation that Russia did indeed lose ten Su-34's and Su-35's in the past two weeks, then kindly correct me.

Posted by: GW | Feb 28 2024 23:43 utc | 71

Is Syrski still the commander of the ukrainian army after the fall of Avdeevka ?

Posted by: WMG | Feb 28 2024 23:46 utc | 72

@LightYearsFromHome | Feb 28 2024 22:47 utc | 60

Erdan was Ambassador to Washington ... tied at the hip to US State Dept.

He may be flying a kite - or a quid-pro-quo for more nasty stuff from Washington -

That said, should the air defence stuff go to Ukraine then previous careful stance of Israel towards Ukraine/Russia would have changed ...

... as then would RF stance on more stuff for Syria ....or a threat that Israeli planes be shot down over Syria ...

Dangerous game played by demagogue Erdan ...

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 28 2024 23:48 utc | 73

An attraction to the US of some kind of western takeover of Transnistria could be access to the vast arms depots there, probably containing more 152/122mm Soviet era shells than could be counted.

No doubt mined against such a move which if activated is estimated to cause an unimaginable explosion.

Posted by: JohninMK | Feb 28 2024 23:52 utc | 74

"If demand goes down due to price increases from inflation, which they do, this means that price will then come down due to weakening demand and increasing competitiveness.

What continues to royally screw with this system of natural value-seeking is the fed's hand which continues to juice its Frankenstein prize-fighter (the American economy with an unlimited printing press)."

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 28 2024 21:41 utc | 48

Back in the 1920’s a guy called Hotelling started to look at Monopolistic competition in terms of location and used the example of where would 2 ice cream sellers on a beach locate themselves. From a social point of view you would think they should locate themselves about one quarter way in on one side of the beach. The other seller would do the same at the other end of the beach. So that they divided the market in two and the consumers could access the ice cream. You would end up with a long beach with a seller at each end a quarter way in on the beach.

Hotelling then says let’s assume the ice cream sellers are mobile and one ice cream sellers moved a bit closer to the centre. In terms of distance starts to steal some of the consumption of the other seller. Which then forces this seller to move a bit closer to the middle of the beach to try and get it back. Hotelling noticed that what happens is eventually you end up with both sellers right in the centre of the beach beside each other. This is not optimal from the stand point of those in the long beach that would like to buy ice cream. The social optimum for the consumers and that is have the seller’s spread out across the beach has been destroyed by the competition between the 2 sellers. The 2 sellers will eventually come to a monopolistic agreement regarding their prices.

Then Hotelling says what happens if a 3rd seller sets up on the beach. Everything becomes unstable as the 3 sellers set up in different places on the beach every day and prices become unstable. Until eventually all 3 end up in the same place on the beach and work together.

Why in cities you have districts that sell the same product. You would expect them to be all over the city but you end up with Jewellers all in one area. Pubs and nightclubs, shopping centres, DIY stores.

So when you get a big 2 or 3 in any sector what do they do. What do the energy companies do ? The insurance companies do? The banks do ? What did the newspapers do ? What did the radio stations do ?

They head to the centre of the beach and form a MONOPOLY and work it between themselves how to extract the most rent as possible and take turns at hiking prices for their services. Or spread propaganda now there are only a few papers when there used to be hundreds. A wonderful life is an educational film.

They turned the public sector into a rent extracting MONOPOLY.

They threaten investment strikes and try and hold elected governments to ransom.

The free market tooth fairy believes that people are mutable between professions at the snap of a finger. That bakers can become engineers and Marks and Spencer cleaners can become train drivers the next day.

That people can be moved around like ignots of steel. They have found out the hard way this is never the case.

When people are unemployed there is never a list of private sector employers sat there with cheque books at the ready. When a down turn happens unemployment spreads through communities like a virus. Regardless what the free market tooth fairy says.

Why we need one of these:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=M-8RXC_vY2g&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fyoursforscotlandcom.wordpress.com%2F&source_ve_path=OTY3MTQ&feature=emb_imp_woyt

Now when we shop in the public sector we are faced with a few private companies that have moved to the centre of the beach. Now they have found their monopoly perch from which to extract rent.

When we shop on the high street we are faced with a wall of consortium's that own most of the high street who have all moved to the centre of the beach. Just look at the consortium's that applied for the loans during the pandemic and how much of the high street they own.

This idea that The neoclassical Keynsian, monetarist and Austrian view that believes that the economy tends to fix itself. If we just sit back economic growth will go back to its maximum and work for all. Is complete bullshit, a crack pipe for the ideologue. Adam Smith never even said it.

You should read more Minsky. Think more deeply about Minsky's employer of the last resort. The Job Guarantee that FORCES competition onto reluctant players.

https://new-wayland.com/blog/uber-under-a-job-guarantee/

If you just leave it alone we move back 200 years to a time of the Wild West or when the clans ran Scotland. A big landowner or maybe 2 owns the lot including the railways. Owns most of the town and the law. The Church will tell you every Sunday how good it is to be poor. After the landlord provided the funds to build the Church.

Leaving it alone expecting it to fix itself. Just replaces an elected government with unelected landlords. We've been there centuries ago and we hated it.

We have left alone since Regan and Thatcher and just look at the landlords that have Squeezed their way into power ever since.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Feb 28 2024 23:54 utc | 75

No doubt mined against such a move which if activated is estimated to cause an unimaginable explosion.

Posted by: JohninMK | Feb 28 2024 23:52 utc | 76

I suspect that significant amounts of these things have redistributed to where they'll do the most good in the event of an attack. That doesn't mean that the main repository isn't a massive bomb now, but perhaps it won't be quite as widely devastating.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 28 2024 23:55 utc | 76

Posted by: JohninMK | Feb 28 2024 23:52 utc | 76

There have been occasional provocations toward Transnistria. The first one were in mid-2022 and it was arguably even worse than the one today.

If they didn't do it then, what would make them do it now?

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 23:59 utc | 77

Assuming Macron's foolish enough to send French troops into combat in Ukraine, I can't imagine the French public tolerating high KIA and WIA levels for very long. And this war means high casualties for any country participating, win, lose or draw.

I remember the French army's withdrawal from the Afghanistan war in 2012. Public pressure was definitely a driving force behind Paris's decision to bring the troops home.

In 2008, Paris Match published a scandalous article featuring Taliban fighters wearing flak jackets, helmets, and personal items taken from the corpses of French soldiers killed in the Uzbin Valley ambush. Less than 20 French troops were killed in that battle, but this was more than enough to sour the French people's willingness to remain in the war.

If the French public couldn't tolerate the low casualties incurred in Afghanistan, how would they react to the loss of dozens - or even hundreds - of French troops each day in Ukraine?

Posted by: GW | Feb 29 2024 0:02 utc | 78

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 28 2024 21:41 utc | 48

None of them can find equilibrium - Period.

They've been trying for decades. It is an illusive as the free market tooth fairy, that when you wake up in the morning everyone finds a job under their pillow.

https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/?s=Equilibrium

An ideological fairy tale that gets taught in every university in the country. Students leave dumber than they were before they went in.

To serve their masters.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Feb 29 2024 0:12 utc | 79

Cynic @63
Putin's mother's maiden name is Shelomova. Draw your own conclusions.

Posted by: AJ | Feb 29 2024 0:20 utc | 80

The Transnistria seems like a western engineered provocation intended to goad Russia to act in a way the west hope to exploit. Russia has had over two years to come up with a plan, so we will see how they respond. Dima suggested a full court press on all fronts plus perhaps a new one in the north to overwhelm Ukrainian ability to respond and cover a move around Odessa. Seems a bit far fetched, but we will see.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 29 2024 0:23 utc | 81

Even with well prepared defenses, if the VSU can’t keep the glide bombs from preceding Russian advances it won’t be able to stop those advances. There’s another 10km+ west of Avdeevka with nowhere to hide. The river probably won’t help enough for long enough. Each roll back under fire is fewer men and the ones who make it are far more battered. The probability of a significant break increases every day.

The pivotal information is the Russian assessment of the VSU’s capacity and stability, but especially its remaining air defenses. There’s an outside chance that the spring offensive could be an attempt cut Ukraine in half and solve all the problems with some big arrows. Doesn’t seem like Putin to me because there’s a lot of risk in it. If the VSU is on its last legs though it could work.

Posted by: Lex | Feb 29 2024 0:32 utc | 82

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 28 2024 21:41 utc | 48

One day you'll figure out - " We have been there already "

The populist right ideologues and money scarcity guys are offering absolutely nothing new. Apart from a time machine.

The majority hated it. They sacrificed themselves for a better life. Marched and protested and fought for certain rights.

The guy from Argentina is Dr Who. Wanting to take everybody back to the 15th, 16th century for the few and not the many. Who has repackaged and marketing the same old bull shit. Added a set of flashing disco lights to the mythical equilibrium. We've been heading there since the 80's under the banner of freedumb.

Freedumb for who ? Not fooking you or me, that's an absolute certainty.

Conservatism - Conserve the past. They just haven't told you what year they have in mind.

Posted by: Echo Chamber | Feb 29 2024 0:40 utc | 83

There have been occasional provocations toward Transnistria. The first one were in mid-2022 and it was arguably even worse than the one today.

If they didn't do it then, what would make them do it now?

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 28 2024 23:59 utc | 79


Lots of subsequent circumstances, ie,

* 2022 was only Kievan posturing and conspiracies about Russia advancing there. But not so now.
* Russia's probable move in 2024 on Odessa, linking it to PMR.
* Moldova's recent stirring up of PMR causing PMR's recent overtures to Moscow for integration/protection.
* Poland getting even more antsy about its border frictions with Ukraine. Something odd going on there.
* The weirdo "security agreements" which have, as yet, no clear motives.
* NATO's current "exercises" in
Finland, Estonia, Sweden, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovakia.
* EU border security against new waves of Ukies.
* Ukraine thought it could win in 2022 by snaffling the ammo dump. Now it knows it is losing the SMO, and can't get the ammo dump. It is way more defended now than in 2022.
* Ukraine and Poland were best buddies in 2022. Not so now. Poland may well have eyes on grabbing west Ukraine, with or without permission. In which case, if PMR becomes RF, Poland has Russia on its border. Hmmm, Warsaw not happy.
* West Ukraine was far less targetted by Russia back then. It is under much more intense surveilance now, as is PMR.

Enough (possible) reasons?

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 0:43 utc | 84

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 28 2024 23:22 utc | 69

Germany had 6.5 million soldiers in 1945, and a force pool of over 10 million, it didn’t help. There is little, if anything, that Ukraine can now do that will prevent the inevitable, just as nothing the Germans did could prevent their fate. The time for Ukrainian strategies to avoid this situation was a year ago, wasting the best part of an army on pointless counter-attacks, which helped weaken the strategic reserve and consumed the majority of their artillery ammunition was the critical point in the conflict, sealing the fate of the country. Just as the offensives in NW Europe and the Eastern Front sealed Germany’s, nearly 80 years ago.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 29 2024 0:44 utc | 85

The Transnistria seems like a western engineered provocation intended to goad Russia to act in a way the west hope to exploit. Russia has had over two years to come up with a plan, so we will see how they respond.
Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 29 2024 0:23 utc | 83

Well over two years. Russia has troops in Transnistria since 1992. Right now it's two Guards battalions and a headquarters battalion. Best guess is there are about 1,500 troops there. I would imagine there have been detailed, constantly updated contingency plans for them since at least the Maidan.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 29 2024 0:44 utc | 86

by shаdοwbanned | Feb 28 2024 22:02 utc | 53

It is hard to tell what kind of warhead it was - but it was not a classical nuke. That would blind camera and there was no thermal flash and no fireball.

What I know of from 1990s is, that around 1993 there was a serious science paper doing rounds in Russian mil-science circles about no-radiation tactical 1-megaton nuke design.
I am still trying to get some info on "a new physical properties" that was propagated often by Putin. Hyper-sonic is not in that category.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 29 2024 0:56 utc | 87

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Feb 28 2024 21:41 utc | 48

Where I live there used to be 32 NHS dentists in my area of the city. They were taken over by a private consortium and now there are 3. Who have all moved to the centre of the beach.

I'm frightened to sit down in the chair because of what the 3 have rigged between themselves as charges. That's what happens when you leave things alone and expect the invisible hand to sort things out for you. People can't get a NHS dentist now since these parasites could do whatever they wanted. It has happened all over the country. Free market makes things cheaper they cry via their propaganda outlets.

Once Dr Who takes us all the way back to the 17th century they'll be one big owner with a set of pliers charging 10 grand for an extraction.


Posted by: Echo Chamber | Feb 29 2024 1:14 utc | 88

Plus, as some think, the current NATO exercises (Jan-May) are readiness against Russia moving towards Odessa. The Black Sea coast is precious to the US, so expect them to defend it anyway they can.
...
Please everyone, stop thinking the end for Ukraine is just one more fallen stronghold away. There's still a LOT MORE demilitarisation to go.

Jake Blanchard | Feb 28 2024 23:22 utc | 69

Yup, very much afraid so.
If this were a two-player game (of somewhat rational players), Kiev would admit defeat and ask Moscow for its conditions. But US/UK have other plans, and still enough Ukrainian cannon fodder.

The key strategic question is who will control Odessa and the coast after the war. Whether the demarcation line runs along the Dniepr or some miles further west or east is of little importance.

So I wonder - is this Transnistria escalation an attempt to bait Russia into occupying southern Ukraine, thus potentially overextending its forces? Or would NATO forces move in once Russia starts an offensive there?

As for EUropean troops in western Ukraine - whether or not it would mean "instant confrontation with Russia", there's certainly a high risk of it. I'd expect some "unknown forces" creating incidents, i.e. shooting at both sides until they start fighting each other. EU leaders aren't stupid, they know this, too. So if anything, I could imagine EU military moving in to stabilize *after* the end of the war.

the pessimist | Feb 29 2024 0:23 utc | 83

Just see you posted sth similar. Really hard to know where to expect the "big move(s)"... RuAF (or Putin) seem rather risk-averse, so maybe this "big Russian offensive" won't materialize at all?

Posted by: smuks | Feb 29 2024 1:31 utc | 89

Echo Chamber | Feb 28 2024 23:54 utc | 77

Good effort, but I'm afraid it's really hopeless. Explaining actual economics to people babbling about the "eViL mOnEy-PrInTiNg FeD" is like playing darts with a blind person.

(Disagree with what you write about inflation @23, but maybe this isn't the place to discuss it.)

Posted by: smuks | Feb 29 2024 1:51 utc | 90

I don't think it is a question of baiting or motivation. Russia is extremely far from Odessa and even further from Transnistria. In addition, it would be quite an undertaking to cross the very wide river and go up the hills on the Ukrainian side (which have a height advantage, good EW, drones, artillery, etc.) And then after that, they are right back into have very perilous supply lines across the river (why they abandoned it last year).

Russia is properly targeting the middle of the Ukrainian lines (Avdiivka, etc.), where they are vulnerable and Russia has good supply lines. It is probably at least 12 months, more likely 24 before Russia has advanced far enough west to turn down towards Kherson (and still would involve a significant river crossing, even up there).

I think Russia has to contemplate the possibility of losing Transistria (even pulling there forces out). They have been practical before, look how they abandoned Kherson.

If there is a second front at Transnistria, Russia will have limited ability to supply their small force there. Granted the Moldovan military is also very small.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 29 2024 1:51 utc | 91

Posted by: Milites | Feb 29 2024 0:44 utc | 87


I don't disagree with anything you wrote, and you didn't disagree with anything I wrote. So I'm puzzled as to why you responded to my #69.

I didn't say, nor do I believe, that Ukraine can possibly win.

I didn't say, nor do I believe, that anything Ukraine or its allies do can help them to win.

I did say however, that Ukraine and its allies will be *trying anything they can* to fruitlessly prolong the inevitable.

I did say that "the fall of Avdiivka/Bhakmut/etc/etc" is NOT the beginning of the end for the AFU.

I did say that there is much more deluded fighting spirit in Kiev, the AFU, NATO and others which will, unfortunately, only prolong the inevitable.

And I do believe that this shitfight MUST continue apace to achieve all of Putin's set goals, no matter what the timeframe. And like your example of WWII, sometimes a just and necessary war must shed much blood to attain the "right" victory.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 1:55 utc | 92

Some videos for today.

Footage from the recently liberated DPR settlement of Lastochkino (to the west of Avdeyevka):
https://rutube.ru/video/6f893e4707a56736ffae3589ddf6c941/

Russian air defense troops defeat enemy drones:
https://rutube.ru/video/c061c2f76a89e5603b46435617a34741/

Russian Grad launcher fires on enemy position near Kupyansk:
https://rutube.ru/video/a15f0e784d0a2fcb9952ce0da80aa9fd/

Russian Ka-52 assault helicopter conducts airstrike near Krasny Liman:
https://rutube.ru/video/a2b5c57a85bd3a7b3745ab2df8e82fbf/

Posted by: Nate | Feb 29 2024 1:55 utc | 93

The Cradle has a posting up about the latest Z jet setting

Zelensky seeks Saudi support for peace deal with Russia

https://thecradle.co/articles/zelensky-seeks-saudi-support-for-peace-deal-with-russia

the quote

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky landed in Saudi Arabia on 27 February for talks with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MbS) regarding a possible peace deal with Russia.

"I had a meaningful and candid conversation with His Royal Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman," Zelensky said via social media. "We discussed the Peace Formula's points and the progress that can be made in implementing them. Saudi Arabia's leadership can assist in finding equitable solutions."

What does it say that Z is out talking peace plans? It looks like he is pushing mostly the same shit but not asking Mbs for money.

One a separate note I want to add to the commenter that said Ukraine and Occupied Palestine are getting closer....not surprising and it will make US politics more crazy....what are the Red team going to say?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 29 2024 2:33 utc | 94

Posted by: Milites | Feb 29 2024 0:44 utc | 87

Furthermore, like so many, you sound like you lament the lost possibilities of a negotiated SMO end in 2022 and of talkie-talkies since then. I am of opposite mind, in that Putin saw back then that the best approach was in fact to fight till the last Rada Member, the last AFU Commander, the last mercenary, the last town east of the Dneiper, basically attrition of all opposition to his SMO goals up until unconditional surrender. Yes, of course he talks about peace talks. All diplomats do. But a 2022 agreement would not have solved anything long term -- only suspended US vs RF tensions till an even bigger reprise. What? You think a Minsk-Ankara-3 would have fixed the root cause of all this? Hardly.

And even now, any peace deals will, in later times, work against Moscow. Peace talks are a wank. This geopolitical battle NEEDS this war. The US thinks so, RF thinks so.

Unfortunately Ukraine and its allies wilfully setup a situation (and still do) which requires bloodshed till the final capitulation. And sadly, arising from that, the Ukrainian populace need a few lessons they will never forget -- never poke the bear, never trust the west. That's why the fighting must/will continue to its organic end. Putin needs to bloody the NATO and the US lip.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 29 2024 3:05 utc | 95

Russia is extremely far from Odessa and even further from Transnistria. In addition, it would be quite an undertaking to cross the very wide river and go up the hills on the Ukrainian side (which have a height advantage, good EW, drones, artillery, etc.)

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 29 2024 1:51 utc | 93

Given what has been going on in the east and south for the last two years, I suspect that the Ukrainian troops facing Transnistria have been somewhat denuded by now of good EW, drones and artillery.

Posted by: Marduk | Feb 29 2024 3:20 utc | 96

Negotiating with Russia could get ugly very soon

Remove all sanctions
dissolve and disband NATO
Return to the nuclear test band treaty with open inspections.
open-source swift
No NATO bases or weapons within 500 miles of a Russian Border
restore Nord stream II at the losers cost..
compensate Russia for its losses to western weapons
Europe to resume using cheap oil from Russia.
Western forces to permanently depart Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Ukraine totally administered by Russia
No western equipment, military or commercial interest in, on, or over the black sea.
present all participants (militants and politicians) in the war in Ukraine for human rights trials to be held by an international Tribunal.
russian language and Russian history to be taught in Ukraine..

Posted by: snake | Feb 29 2024 3:22 utc | 97

Many of you are totally delusional. You have swallowed russian propaganda like a bunch of useful idiots.

Read Anatoliy Golitsyn. The commies have mindfucked you all. Wake up!

Posted by: Jack A | Feb 29 2024 4:12 utc | 98

Posted by: Un Cop Era | Feb 28 2024 19:33 utc | 22

Martyanov lives in US. As an almost ever true rule, all commentators from the anglosphere speak bullshit about France. They have as much understanding of it as a 14 years old French informed by the media.

Here for instance, everybody takes Macron'say at face value. Nobody understands that Macron is playing some trick, as he usually do.

Posted by: Parisian Guy | Feb 29 2024 4:15 utc | 99

Re: what kind of missles?

Don't be silly russia isn't nuking moldova for it. They can easily hit a few concentration points with regular missles. I'd bet moldova doesn't have many weapons or soldiers it wouldn't take much to tilt the balance so they lose another war against transdinistria.

With ukraine soaking up so many resources there won't be a lot of nato supplies coming in. My guess is if a first push bogs down moldova won't have long term staying power and will try to freeze the conflict again.

If ukraine really does intervene I would expect an end to the smo and a full declaration of war with every volunteer and russian conscript attacking all areas of the front in ukraine.

Which might be successful at this stage now.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 28 2024 19:58 utc | 26

-----------------

Yeah, Moldovans ain't fighting for Sandu or Moldova, for that matter. Many consider the "country" nothing more than a Stalinist cartographic joke after all.

It's a pressure tactic & a reminder of Romanian land-claims, with Russia defining the limits of same.

They've drumed this up before remember...

Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 29 2024 4:38 utc | 100

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