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February 25, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-061
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Von der Leyen and Baerbock both visited Kiev this week – last chance to pick up a few suitcases of cash 😀
Posted by: Exile | Feb 25 2024 14:13 utc | 3
Ukraine is on the backfoot, but they’re still holding back, the Abrams hasn’t been used yet. The UK has supplied hundreds of missles and they have lots of drones still.
It’d easy to get carried away and then be crushed when something doesn’t happen.
The war will continue at least till summer for the f16s. And then? Well it’ll depend on a lot of unknowables at this time.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 25 2024 14:19 utc | 4
Several commentators are making references to WWII Eastern front for the analogy to the current campaign but I keep seeing the American Civil War being played out again. Maybe it’s because I am American and that conflict is more real to me (having walked Civil War battlefields). A nation (Confederates, South) initiates the conflict against the larger, better equipped adversary (Union, North), scores some successes, and then is gradually squeezed to death by attacks all across the theater until total collapse occurs and unconditional surrender happens. There were multiple battles won by the South that grabbed headlines but the industrial might of the North was never truly threatened during the war. There was a tipping point (Vicksburg/Gettysburg battles) where the initiative shifted to the North and never really returned to the South. The Union found a commander (Grant) that understood attritional warfare and kept up the pressure on the Confederates no matter what the casualties to the North were. Foreign support of the South (Britain) were not enough to overcome the disparity between the South and North in industry and manpower. Interestingly, Russia was instrumental in the American Civil War in keeping Britain from getting further involved.
Now I would like to see a blockade like the US Navy set up around the South executed by Russia today, but geographically that is much harder to do in Ukraine than it was in the Civil War. The analogy with the US Civil War isn’t perfect (as is the WWII Eastern Front analogy), but I think there are parallels that are playing out before us.
Posted by: mtw | Feb 25 2024 14:28 utc | 5
Navalny died precisely because of a blood clot — Ukrainian Military Intelligence head Budanov
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/101793
Posted by: Apollyon | Feb 25 2024 14:41 utc | 6
New analysis about the situation in Ukraine on Black Mountain Analysis by Aleks.
Some very interesting thoughts, especially how the war could end.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/olympus-has-fallen
Abrams hasn’t been used yet
They haven’t been used because Maerica still hopes to sell munitions in the future, despite their inferiority, including the Abhrams. Having a bunch of them destroyed after accomplishing nothing doesn’t help sales.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 25 2024 15:15 utc | 8
The reason the final defeat is being postponed so long with new weapons and money constantly being sent to Ukraine could be because of the grandiosity of The Plan.
US using proxy armies to eliminate its adversaries. First in Europe to take Russia down, splitting it in minor regions all dominated by US (or in chaos) and achieving control over the western border to China.
Until recently in ME with SA fighting Iran, and – coming up – pushing Taiwan, Japan and SK to sqeeze China with US (or probably another proxy) now on the western border.
A grand plan for the history books if it was to succeed.
If true it was probably cooked up before Trump suddenly appeared and wreaked havoc in the sceme, but still so great that he was not “allowed” to cancel it.
Now the grand plan seems to fail. The pressure on the instigators to take the blame are increasing and unless they have the power to kick all the chess pieces off the table, the reckless plan and its masterminds are going to get revealed …
Posted by: Baddy | Feb 25 2024 15:25 utc | 9
I was super busy this last week and haven’t had time to comment much, but this from two threads ago deserves following up on:
The real question b should be asking is : are the US winning ? Is NATO winning ? I contend that yes, the US for now has mostly a positive balance out of this.
– Their MIC is going gangbusters. Look up the numbers. They are selling their F-35 left and right (I don’t care about the F-35 being a piece of shit. the fact is : they’re selling it)
– Their energy exports are going gangbusters
– their competitor (Europe) is sinking slowly
– They have severed all possible links between Russia and Europe
– Russia has been materially weakened and sucked into a conflict which will take years if not decades
– NATO itself has been enlarged (Finland, Sweden…) and is in fact BIGGER than before the war
– Prerequisites are being prepared so that Europe as a whole can act as a base for an eventual conflict against Russia (look up military Schengen).
You have to look at things with the correct assumptions. And ask yourself if I’m really wrong.
Posted by: Micron | Feb 24 2024 9:03 utc | 324
==>
The fact of the matter is : the US has not suffered one bit throughout the last two years. People may hallucinate otherwise, but that’s truth.And that’s the essence of shadowbanned’s point. The US has not had to suffer any negative consequence because Russia has not dared to retaliate.
I mean of course serious consequences. Little pinpricks like banning diplomats or the export of certain stuff doesn’t count.
In the grand scheme of things, Russia lost 100.000 able-bodied men, two A-50 worth more than their weight in gold, its flagship cruiser, and so on and so on… What did the US lose ? A global Hawk ? Peanuts. On the positive side of the balance sheet their military complex has been making tens of billions of dollars. That’s the hard truth we all have to face. And that Russia will have to face if it wants to get serious.
Posted by: Micron | Feb 24 2024 12:31 utc | 360
and:
I don’t want to sound like the shitty concern trolls, but I do want to get this out there.
NATO will be/is moving long range missiles into the Ukraine. They will strike targets deep in Russia. What do you suppose NATO will target? Airfields? Maybe. Critical industries? Perhaps. Nuclear power plants? Definitely.
You’re thinking wrong, and the Russians are as well. psychohistorian thinks this is a gentleman’s fight, perhaps slapping one’s opponent with your kidskin glove. Naive nonsense. From the imperial perspective this is a knock-down-drag-out, winner-takes-all and death to the loser street fight. I doubt many here are at all willing to contemplate just how dirty the Empire of Chaos is willing to fight. I’ll try to provide some ideas.
Consider video of St Basil’s cathedral in flames. What wonderful propaganda that would be for the Empire! You are a naive fool if you don’t think the Empire’s strategists are salivating for that, ‘specially if they can hit it when it is packed to capacity with worshipers.
How about video of rescue workers carrying corpses out of the smoldering ruins of the Bolshoi Theater? Prime target of the Empire, folks.
Or how about just popular shopping malls demolished while filled with shoppers? Crowded movie theaters leveled to the ground? Crowded parks or skating rinks? Music festivals? Stadiums hosting major sporting events?
These are the things the Empire is going to hit. You are naive fools if you refuse to see it, but I am laying it out now so you cannot pretend it is inconceivable when it happens.
And it will happen.
Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 23 2024 22:53 utc | 170
and:
There is another disproportionate vector Russia could utilize: directly taking out the top-level deep-state decision makers, rather than wasting resources on their government and military stand-ins.
Eliminating 1 or 200 family estates hidden well out of the public’s awareness would effectively cripple US/UK government for the next 50 years.
Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Feb 24 2024 1:29 utc | 251
That is correct — the only place where “they” can be hit and that will really hurt is going after the Western oligarchy directly. No amount of military deaths will really move the needle much — the last time some of the elites sent their progeny to actually fight was in Vietnam, and it was only some of them. Now it’s just regular grunts from rural and depressed urban areas.
What Putin could and should have done, probably already in mid-2022, when the West first started meddling directly, certainly after the first attacks inside Russia, and absolutely after the mass murder in Belgorod, is to come out with a list of Western oligarchy members that will be liquidated with missile strikes or through other means, no matter where they are in the world, and then start working on that list. It probably wouldn’t be ranked simply by wealth, although the Forbes list would also do the job — I can imagine the GRU and the SVR know who is really responsible for decision making that results in Russians getting killed. And from then on for every terrorist attack inside Russia, on a one-to-one basis in terms of casualties, the people on that list get taken out.
That should in principle end the whole thing immediately, unless the people on that list have always been completely crazy, in which case nuclear war was inevitable anyway.
This should really have been done on a one-to-one basis with respect to overall casualties, not just civilians, and for both Russians and Ukrainians. Putin is on record now talking about how this is a civil war. Well, if it is a civil war forced on you by the West, then the West is responsible for both the RF an AFU deaths, and they are both your own casualties, not somebody else’s. Start acting on it then. The rest of the world would have understood if you had framed it that way.
The problem is that I can immediately tell you the reasons why nothing of the sort has been done:
1) Russian elites, Putin included, still don’t want to cut all ties with Western elites
2) Putin doesn’t have the guts, regardless of 1)
3) He is afraid that in response some Russian oligarchs will get taken out too, and then he may get couped. So it’s better to just keep taking the hits, after all it is regular civilians and soldiers dying, not anyone who matters…
But if Western escalation is not checked, that leads to the following bifurcation — either Russia loses and ceases to exist, or we do get the global nuclear war. Clearly that is understood within the Kremlin — Medvedev spelled it out in the most explicit terms possible a week ago. But still no action beyond empty “would you please stop?” rhetoric is taken to cut off Western escalation…
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 15:28 utc | 10
MTW’s analogy to the American Civil War is shared by Alexander Mercouris. But the war between the States lasted 4 years and the consequences of the destruction and abuse of the South were still being felt into the 1920s maybe even today. The SMO will probably be seen in the future as a slavic civil war but with some important facets:
In an area that was so integrated as Little Russia, a new “national identity” had to be invented for Ukraine. UKUS found that in the neo nazi movement.
Of course, to make this brew potable, they needed a figurehead. Everything is in the discourse! A “brand” like Uncle Ben’s had to be invented: who better than a little jewish stand up comedian dressed like Che Guevara. They found their boy playing the piano with his penis.
The fastest way to end this war if the arrest of Zelensky and his cabinet and pack them off to Moscow to stand trial for their crimes. It is the best way to slap those UKUS faces. As they squeal, the secrets might be revealed for all to see.
Posted by: Stierlitz | Feb 25 2024 15:29 utc | 11
The following is not my theory instead it is a different argument which I heard at a party.
If and when an attacking party, (i.e. Russia or Israel) decides to attack Nation state protected space; the attacking party (i.e. Russia, Israel) should avoid targeting military operations and facilities in nations foreign to the nation being attacked. Instead, the attacking party should target the assets, real estate and other assets of the foreign private owners or foreign private service providers doing business in the nation under attack (i.e. Ukraine or Palestine).
Are persons and their assets, located in a homeland foreign to the nation under attack, but with a presence of some sort in the nation being attacked (i. e. Ukraine and Palestine), fair game during wartime? Instead of limiting wars to government managed militaries, the theory would expand war to all parties, domestic or foreign, who hold a presence in the nation state at war? Remember this is not my theory, i am just posting what I heard several people argue about.
In a global one government world, there are no nation state boundaries, so who would respond to defend or avenge such an attack and how would the attacker decide what to attack?
Under a one world government it would be difficult to pit one government against another government?
Posted by: snake | Feb 25 2024 15:53 utc | 12
Subtle warning:
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/30671
German Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock arrived in Nikolaev today after visiting Odessa.
The German newspaper Bild writes that the convoy in which Bärbock was traveling was pursued by a Russian drone.
On the way to the desalination station, a reconnaissance drone approached the motorcade. Members of the delegation triggered an alarm on their smartphone, and “drivers began trying to avoid the drone.” But he was flying behind the column.
The drone then changed course, but the visit to the station, which is located by the sea, was cancelled.
But still no balls to do anything meaningful
That whole circus with Western leaders parading throughout Ukraine should never have been allowed.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 15:54 utc | 13
Meanwhile:
https://t.me/treugolniklpr/21847
Enemy tactical aircraft in the air.
Attention. There will be an announcement of alarm
3x Su 24
https://t.me/treugolniklpr/21850
Possibility of simultaneous launch.
6 x Storm
2-6 Anti-radar
+ from the ground
We will try to warn in a timely manner about launches
https://t.me/treugolniklpr/21864
Missiles were launched from aircraft
18-33.
The direction is being clarified
https://t.me/treugolniklpr/21865
At the moment, 2 Storm shootdowns have been confirmed.
We do not indicate areas.
Now the question immediately comes up how, after all the shootdowns and strikes on airfields, Ukraine still has abundant Su-24s to launch ALCMs with? Where are those Su-24s hidden so effectively?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 16:02 utc | 14
Ukraine Weekly Update, 23rd February 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-67d
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Feb 25 2024 16:02 utc | 15
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/30662
Belarus, according to the President, together with Russia is considering different scenarios for the development of events and countering this.
“We will always be united with Russia. In such a situation, we can resist any enemy,” said Alexander Lukashenko. “Because the current world is power, they understand only power. If we, forgive me, let go and fight for democracy and some ephemeral freedom – you saw what kind of “democracy” they have…
Therefore, we need to see our goals, our interests, be sincere, pursue a policy of justice. Then this will be the unity of our people. Not without the fact that someone will crawl out of- under the baseboards, he blathers, but this happens in any society. Therefore, all these scenarios are unrealistic. We see it all perfectly well. You don’t even have to worry.”
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/30663
The President of Belarus about the union state:
“Two sovereign, independent states. We are smart people to create such an association so that we can be stronger. Neither Russia nor Belarus will support the unification of the two states. Such a step will only make things worse . “
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 16:03 utc | 16
…the only place where “they” can be hit and that will really hurt is going after the Western oligarchy directly…
Bingo!
Unfortunately not realistic with this naive weak braindead kippers in Kremlin
Posted by: SlowSoft | Feb 25 2024 16:03 utc | 17
@Stierlitz | Feb 25 2024 15:29 utc | 11
The SMO will probably be seen in the future as a slavic civil war
I disagree, I am convinced it will be seen as the west is describing it: Trying to eliminate Russia as a unified power, split it up and steal its riches. All in the tradition of Napoleon and Hitler. The only question is who in the west gets to be (justifiably) blamed this time, there are many to choose from.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2024 16:11 utc | 18
not realistic with this naive weak braindead kippers in Kremlin
Posted by: SlowSoft | Feb 25 2024 16:03 utc | 17
—
The Kremlin is not the vanguard you seek.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanguardism
Ansar Allah has a grassroots movement and something big seems to be coalescing around anti-zionist sentiment.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2024 16:14 utc | 19
shаdοwbanned@10….Johnson and Trudeau in Kiev and Russia couldn’t even do a Drone drive by flag drop ffs.
Shoigu says wrapping it up next year, BloJo and Canada’s Mr Dress Up sign on the line for another 10 years, free flow blow; Shoigu miss the memo? He sure as fuck missed the target.
NATO at the Deniper? Long range missiles and F 16s…..opening in theatres soon, pass the popcorn.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 25 2024 16:25 utc | 20
The Kiev authorities need to engage in talks with Russia, because otherwise, Ukraine’s days are numbered, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said. “If the West keeps ‘helping’ Ukraine in the same manner, then Ukraine’s days are numbered,” he told reporters after casting his ballot in the country’s parliamentary and local elections.
Posted by: AI | Feb 25 2024 16:36 utc | 21
According to Mercouris, the formidable Vasily Nebenzya at the UN said something like “Ukraine can still exist in some form” if it removes the Banderites, remains neutral outside NATO and guarantees equal rights for all language groups, etc.
But given this is not happening with the current regime, it needs to be removed. Unless it is done by someone in Ukraine, the implication is they will end up as 404.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2024 16:45 utc | 22
Abrams hasn’t been used yet
They haven’t been used because Maerica still hopes to sell munitions in the future, despite their inferiority, including the Abhrams. Having a bunch of them destroyed after accomplishing nothing doesn’t help sales.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 25 2024 15:15 utc | 8
They have been used, and at least one has been destroyed. They are generally kept well to the rear, but current conditions are forcing them into combat, unless the US manages to take them back. In any case, US doesn’t want to talk about it.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 25 2024 16:47 utc | 23
The Kiev authorities need to engage in talks with Russia
Posted by: AI | Feb 25 2024 16:36 utc | 21
—
Do you think that the agitators that instigated the conflict with Russia can negotiate for themselves a pardon for prosecuting an unjust war?
Before a negotiated settlement is possible it will be necessary to replace Ukraine’s leadership with people who are not in jeopardy of criminal conviction.
Posted by: too scents | Feb 25 2024 16:48 utc | 24
21
Luka the slavic BloJo is babbling like the Chessmaster
Next he will draw red lines in rainblow colors like his Chessmaster?
Oh man what weak losers with empty words re in key positions. Insane
Posted by: SlowSoft | Feb 25 2024 16:50 utc | 25
Ukraine has admitted to 31,000 dead
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68397525
Posted by: The Accountant | Feb 25 2024 16:50 utc | 26
shаdοwbanned:
I thought the union state would adopt the Russian Ruble as common currency.
Posted by: Stierlitz | Feb 25 2024 16:53 utc | 27
I notice that the more clear it becomes that Russia is winning, the more complaining there is about how slowly they do it, and how weak, incompetent or just plain cowardly the Russian leadership. Well, what else can western propagandists do try to keep people from defecting? This is all they have left.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 25 2024 16:53 utc | 28
Just got this off Jewpedia on Patrick Lancaster:
Patrick Lancaster is an American vlogger, podcaster and influencer.[2][3] Although described as “pro-Kremlin”, Lancaster’s videos covering the Russian invasion of Ukraine regularly reveal compromising Russian military information, which is used against Russia by Ukrainian forces, western intelligence agencies, and western media, leading to Lancaster being called a double agent. [4][5][6][7] Lancaster is known for regularly filming staged scenes and attempting to pass them off as real, and has been referred to as a fake master.[8][9]
I can’t even …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 25 2024 16:57 utc | 29
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 25 2024 16:53 utc | 28
Exactly right. These posters are either simple minded trolls or are obviously insane and want a nuclear exchange. Please keep pointing out this sort of shit.
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Feb 25 2024 17:12 utc | 30
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 15:28 utc | 10
So Putin is someone who has his trousers full.
The anti-hero of your dreams. Paul Craig Roberts is proud of these kinds of creatures who always find fault with Russia.
But never in the USA itself.
I think time will bring about a leap from quantity of miscalculation-like yours-and Western “elites” to a new quality of Russian/Brics dominance.
That will also be painful for me as a German pensioner-if I live to see it…
Posted by: Oberbayer | Feb 25 2024 17:13 utc | 31
Trying to eliminate Russia as a unified power, split it up and steal its riches. All in the tradition of Napoleon and Hitler.
Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 25 2024 16:11 utc | 18
And of course not in the tradition of the British Empire – they only wanted to export civilisation: What ever happens, we have got, the Maxim gun, and they have not !
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 25 2024 17:17 utc | 32
I notice that the more clear it becomes that Russia is winning, the more complaining there is about how slowly they do it, and how weak, incompetent or just plain cowardly the Russian leadership. Well, what else can western propagandists do try to keep people from defecting? This is all they have left.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 25 2024 16:53 utc | 28
It appears to me the Russians are moving faster now, little flowers all along the line now, no waiting for months for something to happen. The collapse of Adveevka makes a difference, lots of resources freed up for new adventures, lots of turmoil on the other side.
Posted by: Bemildred | Feb 25 2024 17:18 utc | 33
What happens if a Western ‘principle’ visits Ukraine on official capacity and something happens, e.g. by drone, and Putin is immediately blamed, because he’s a ‘psychopathic dictator’ and NATO has casus belli, but more to the point, a novel way to intensify pressure on China and a lever to further vilify Russia in the eyes of the Global South?
Posted by: Ludo | Feb 25 2024 17:36 utc | 34
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 25 2024 16:57 utc | 29
thats precisely why i have teached my kids that wikipedia is not a reliable source when it comes to history and politics with regards to the “current enemy” of the west.
they actievly preach this to anyone that uses wikipedia as a source, and even show them the video of the co-founder of wiki telling exactly that.
its the only thing one can do to preserve the truth among the empire of lies as a normal person.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 25 2024 17:37 utc | 35
Posted by: Ludo | Feb 25 2024 17:36 utc | 35
Where and when did you ever see that RF has been vilified the eyes of global South?
Tho opposite infact did happened and, be aware, whatever the collective west is thinking or forced to rhink is not what the Row people are thinking.
Posted by: Mario | Feb 25 2024 17:41 utc | 36
Again, the people here who constantly complain that Russia isn’t aggressive enough are asking for Russia to act the way that the US would. But the US hasn’t won any wars that way. It has only made messes it can’t clean up. And what the US wants is precisely to get an escalation.
An important part of strategy is to deny the opponent what it wants and needs. Denying the US a significant escalation is part of a cost-benefit calculation. Matching escalations is a different cost-benefit calculation. And both need to be considered within a deep analysis of the opponent. None of us have all the information necessary to run those calculations. Some of us pretend to and reach conclusions like “missile attack London” to shut the Brits up. Cathartic maybe but not necessarily smart.
Posted by: Lex | Feb 25 2024 17:42 utc | 37
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68397525
Volds maths isn’t the best.
A recurring theme.
Posted by: jpc | Feb 25 2024 17:43 utc | 38
@ mtw, §5:
Interesting parallels.
I would have thought it would be much easier for the Russians to blockade the Ukraine in the Black Sea than it was for the Feds. to block the Confeds. in the Atlantic.
In addition, there´s only one way to get into the Black Sea . . . through the Bosporus.
There´s no such bottleneck in the Atlantic.
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 25 2024 17:46 utc | 39
The Accountant @26: “Ukraine has admitted to 31,000 dead”
That sounds pretty close when we consider the Ukrainian Nazi regime understates their losses by at least 90%.
Gotta keep up morale or the meat may refuse to climb into the grinder.
Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 25 2024 17:55 utc | 40
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 25 2024 16:53 utc | 28
No Honzo. The intensity of the complains has to do with western escalation. The imperialists are becoming more unhinged instead of backing down. For many people within Russia and beyond, the lack of fear of consequences exhibited by western elites (and large segments of the western citizenry too) is what fuels this behaviour. Attitudes and policies that would have been unthinkable during the SOviet era, indeed even a few years ago, are adopted in a casual fashion by the Anglo-American elites and their craven vassals.
Now, one can easily make the obvious argument that the USSR was – at least seemingly – in a far stronger position. But that is precisely the reason why Russia must establish red lines that would see the obliteration of the Maidanist regime without many more losses.
Again, part of said weakness was the immeasurable damage done in the 90s. That includes a demographic disaster unparalleled in peace time. Putin has struggled for more than two decades to reverse the process, but the last years the efforts have failed to yield appreciable results, to put it charitably. And that was before the war, which has claimed the lives of fairly young people in productive and reproductive age.
Now, the culprit for this bloodbath is not the decrepit Ukro-fascist regime, but NATO operating directly in Ukraine. And yet, its leaders, instead of backing down in fear of provoking a very serious Russian retaliation, continue to operate certain in their convictions that their will be none.
Do you find it odd that some people find this extremely disturbing and ask for explanations or even some solutions? Or do you demand that no such questions should be allowed and anyone posing them must be denounced as a “western propagandist”?
Posted by: Constantine | Feb 25 2024 17:58 utc | 41
The power of propaganda. To think that those “journalists” didn’t try to put any questions to Zelenski bullshit claim of “only 31.000” casualties, speaks volumes…
Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 25 2024 18:00 utc | 42
Posted by: The Accountant | Feb 25 2024 16:50 utc | 26
Even with an extra zero, the reported Ukrainian losses would still be short of the actual death toll. But they have to maintain domestic support in the west to continue their criminal policies. It is extremely unlikely that the Ukrainians, at least those still remaining in the country, believe such blatant falsehoods.
Posted by: Constantine | Feb 25 2024 18:04 utc | 43
The power of propaganda. To think that those “journalists” didn’t try to put any questions to Zelenski bullshit claim of “only 31.000” casualties, speaks volumes…
Posted by: JamesBond | Feb 25 2024 18:00 utc | 43
There aren’t many if any journalists in msm.
There’s a multitude of narrative regurgitatiors .
Asking questions real questions gets you fired.
Posted by: jpc | Feb 25 2024 18:12 utc | 44
@14 shadowbanned
Re: su24s where and how
In total there have been about 1400 su24s produced worldwide, Russias fleet was 270. So at max there’s 1130 su24s available to fly for ukraine. Now of course some have been lost, so you got a range of x-1130 planes available. The number of missles supplied and the number of missions a plane can perform before destruction is what you need to figure out how long it can continue.
Finally they can be stored outside of ukraine and brought in as needed under cover.
Russia has to fight against basically the whole Warsaw pact so my gut says they got more planes than missles right now.it could take years to eliminate the supply.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 25 2024 18:13 utc | 45
Russia has to fight against basically the whole Warsaw pact so my gut says they got more planes than missles right now.it could take years to eliminate the supply.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 25 2024 18:13 utc | 46
Destroy them in the Warsaw Pact countries then.
P.S:
https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1761648755516768353
The AWACS A-50 aircraft was reported as shot down by the American Patriot system. Thus, since NATO is shooting down Russian planes over Russia from the territory of Ukraine, it means that Russia can shoot down NATO planes over NATO territory from the territory of Ukraine.
I still doubt it was a Patriot, but if it was, it was not just a Patriot, but a Patriot with a previously undisclosed capability of shooting much further than the publicly announced range.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 18:20 utc | 46
@47 SB
Re: patriots and bombing outside ukraine
Clearly Russia can’t afford nato the opportunity to declare war on them with bombing Poland for instance. I think you understand that perfectly well.
A50 shootdowns: I’ve seen video of Ukrainian air defence being destroyed close to the front line s300 and something called a “frankensam” mixing patriot and s300 stuff together.
My thoughts are ukraine has stripped AD from the cities to inflict ambushes on the front.
It’s nothing new, just risky tactics and ambushes.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 25 2024 18:27 utc | 47
Zelensky says the topic of questioning his ‘legitimacy in Ukraine’ (after the elections are cancelled in April-May) is Russian disinformation.
The only relevant effect this could have is to lead to increased partisanship in Ukraine.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2024 18:28 utc | 48
Again, the people here who constantly complain that Russia isn’t aggressive enough are asking for Russia to act the way that the US would. But the US hasn’t won any wars that way. It has only made messes it can’t clean up. And what the US wants is precisely to get an escalation.
Posted by: Lex | Feb 25 2024 17:42 utc | 38
Look, 30 people were massacred at a Christmas market in the middle of Belgorod by a NATO missile strike just before New Year’s Eve. That was not responded to in any way, so it was repeated several times since then, and now we are talking about strategic (but conventional for now) strikes on the Russian inferior. I literally just listened to one Western analyst being asked this question and replying that “the Russians haven’t done anything every time we crossed their red lines, they won’t do anything in this case either, so let’s do it”.
This is what “not acting the way the US would” results in.
You will either get destroyed or you will have to finally respond in a drastic way.
P.S. This has nothing to do with how the US would response. It is basic defense of the country stuff. You can’t have someone attacking you daily and just take the punches unless you want to become a failed state. Such as Syria.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 18:31 utc | 49
Clearly Russia can’t afford nato the opportunity to declare war on them with bombing Poland for instance. I think you understand that perfectly well.
A50 shootdowns: I’ve seen video of Ukrainian air defence being destroyed close to the front line s300 and something called a “frankensam” mixing patriot and s300 stuff together.
My thoughts are ukraine has stripped AD from the cities to inflict ambushes on the front.
It’s nothing new, just risky tactics and ambushes.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Feb 25 2024 18:27 utc | 48
Ukronato is making small ambushes here and there. They deploy an air defense in the middle of the night into a forest and let the Nato drone off Sevastopol or Novorrossyisk do their work and activate the thing for a target of opportunity.
Obviously it makes no sense from Russian POV to bomb a single target in Nato. The only thing that would make sense is go full-bore and obliterate everything, because that is what Nato will do in the event of however miniscule event. That initially sets a higher bar, since there are much fewer levels of escalation to nuclear weapons than in some other more lenient scenario.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2024 18:31 utc | 50
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 24 Feb 2024 by 20:15⚡️
🔻#Kherson Direction:
🟡At #Krynki, precise strikes by our artillery and drone operators reduce the AFU presence on the left bank. They are wiping out the best AFU units, the Marines.
🔻#Zaporozhye Direction:
🟡In the #Orekhov Section, there is progress in #Rabotino at a great price. The recaptured part in the centre became grey zone. The dense work of the AFU drones forced us to retreat some distance. There is a bloody struggle for every meter. Ours continue to eliminate the ledge created by months of AFU attacks.
🔻#SouthDonetsk Direction:
🟡In the #Maryinka Sector, our forces entered #Krasnogorovka from the south, and are fighting street battles on the outskirts. In #Novomikhaylovka, fierce fighting continues, and our army is advancing. The AFU, trying to improve the position of their forces there, counterattacked at #Sladkoye and retook some of their lost positions. At #Pobeda, our troops repulsed the AFU counterattack and held their positions.
🔻#Avdeyevka Direction:
🟡In the #Orlovka Sector, after stabilisation of the front in #Lastochkino and #Severnoye, the our next target is #Tonenkoye. Today, after aviation and artillery preparation, our army entered the eastern outskirts of the village with successes, some of the enemy’s forces have moved to the west. Also, our forces are attacking from #Lastochkino towards #Orlovka.
🔻#Bakhmut Direction:
🟡In the “Chasov Yar” Sector, according to the most optimistic reports, our army was able to break into the centre of #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye). The enemy confirms its gradual withdrawal to the western outskirts.
🔻In #Svatovo Direction:
🟡In the #Seversk Sector, Our military is conducting combat reconnaissance at #Belogorovka.
🟡In the #Liman Sector, our assault groups almost approached #Terny. The AFU position unenviable. Behind them there is the deep valley of the Zherebets River. If the enemy does not disperse towards #Nevskoye or #Torskoye, there will be nowhere to retreat.
🟡In the #Kupyansk Sector, Syrsky and Umerov urgently go around the advanced AFU positions. Apparently, they are worried that new battles may unfold there.
☠️ Our Air Defence hit six Ukrainian drones over the #Belgorod region and the Black Sea. In #Donetsk, there are wounded again by AFU strikes.
💥 Our Aerospace Forces attacked targets in #Ukraine. The focus of our attention is on air bases. It is known about explosions on the territory of airfields in the #Nikolayev region and #Starokonstantinov in the #Khmelnitsky region. region. The Belkozin Plant in #Priluki and the Polychem Plant in #Shostka were also hit. In #Konstantinovka (#DPR), a railway junction and a train station were destroyed by an air bomb.
Posted by: Down South | Feb 25 2024 18:35 utc | 51
Looks like we are getting closer to WWIII. Will Zelensky figure out how to use Sergeant Scholz to get it started? Or will it get fired off somewhere else? Either way, it looks closer all the time. How will anyone survive it? https://folkpotpourri.com/a-cold-and-lonely-future/. Some may call it fearmongering, but I’m becoming a prepper.
Posted by: Ozark Grandpa | Feb 25 2024 18:35 utc | 52
I would like to address two instances of what I see as ‘appeal to authority’ logical fallacies.
In the spirit of not just believing what the victorious writers of history say, I invite anyone reading this to consider the following.
Posted by: Thomas | Feb 25 2024 14:53 utc | 7
Thomas you perpetuate the myth that possibly Azov “calls the shots” on some matters and is “a threat” to zelensky or the power structure in UK.
Tell me, what evidence of this is there ?
What things will be different now they are gone and not able to influence things ?
What things that occurred in the past that were done because Azov wanted them done but Kiev disagreed with ?
If Zhlushny was so hard to get rid of but in the end is now gone, how can anyone seriously suggest that Azov are the hidden true commanders of the entire country while fighting on the ground at the same time ?
How convenient for the real shot callers that this
dynamic is entertained at all.
Posted by: mtw | Feb 25 2024 14:28 utc | 5
There is enormous evidence that the generals from the north were going from town to town in the south and killing women and children and many of the Confederate soldiers were leaving the army to protect their own families.
The punishing of civilians in such a way as described above is on display today in the IDFs actions and in NATO ZOGs actions in Ukraine.
Posted by: ryanggg | Feb 25 2024 18:36 utc | 53
The situation is still unclear and difficult and we should not run into conclusions.
Is Russia fast enough to inflict enough damage before the wesrern production of shells increases?
Are Ukrainians mad enough to mobilize another galf milion?
Posted by: vargas | Feb 25 2024 18:36 utc | 54
I would have thought it would be much easier for the Russians to blockade the Ukraine in the Black Sea than it was for the Feds. to block the Confeds. in the Atlantic.
In addition, there´s only one way to get into the Black Sea . . . through the Bosporus.
There´s no such bottleneck in the Atlantic.
Posted by: John Marks | Feb 25 2024 17:46 utc | 40
Ukraine can be blockaded tomorrow.
This is entirely a political decision.
As has been commented by sources close to the Russian military repeatedly.
All the tools for a complete blockade are available and ready to use.
So are the tools to completely throw the US out of Eurasia. It can be done literally in a day. Not throw them out just Europe, from Eurasia, completely. In a day.
It is a political decision not to use those tools out of fear of escalation. It’s not clear why though — those bastards are going to then launch all out nuclear war and lose North America too? One would think they have more sense than that. And how much more escalation can you fear when they are openly attacking you on your own territory?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 18:37 utc | 55
A vacuum of legitimacy will emerge in Ukraine in May, but the Office of the President is confident in full control over the situation.
Zelensky commented on his status after May 20 – after the end of his presidential powers.
Zelensky is going to continue to fulfill the duties of President without elections; lawyers and politicians are already calling him “illegitimate” and “usurpation of powers.” In particular, Poroshenko’s supporters are raising this topic very actively. And ex-speaker Dmitry Razumkov said that the only legitimate way out of the situation should be the transfer of presidential powers from Zelensky to the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada.
Zelensky claims that the Kremlin is behind the debate about his illegitimacy.
“About legitimacy – this is not the opinion of Western partners or someone inside Ukraine, this is the narrative and program of the Russian Federation. All the G7 intelligence services have the relevant documents. For everyone, in principle, it is clear that this is a program of the Russians. Absolutely everyone is against this “, said the President.
According to Zelensky, some of the G7 leaders even tell him the names of those inside Ukraine who raise this narrative. “I know that some journalists in the United States also have these documents. The document even contains money, amounts allocated to certain institutions to raise this topic,” he added.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21805
Posted by: Down South | Feb 25 2024 18:40 utc | 56
Read today.
“The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, said that, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Alexey Navalny actually died due to a blood clot.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Feb 25 2024 18:42 utc | 57
The recent loss of the second A-50 AWACS aircraft this winter once again raises questions about increasing the operational number of these aircraft in the Aerospace Forces.
It is crucial to do so not only because having a radar, especially a airborne one, is better than not having one. The A-50 serves as a vital component of the VKS battle formation. In addition to overseeing the battle, it furnishes crucial information about the situation to the aviation group leadership, enabling them to plan future actions with clear foresight.
There has been a shortage of these aircraft even prior to the commencement of the SMO, and a sudden surge in upgrading the A-50 to the A-50U is not feasible due to various technical and organizational challenges. This is particularly applicable to the new A-100, which currently exists as a single unit undergoing testing.
This once again brings to the forefront the need for “ersatz-AWACS,” aircraft that could assume the role of a flying radar, albeit with limited capabilities, and be rapidly produced.
Nearly a year ago, a suggestion was made to create a substitute AWACS based on the An-12 military transport aircraft or the Tu-154 passenger aircraft currently in service or in storage. These aircraft could be outfitted with the Irbis radar from Su-35 fighters, as it is being produced in series and there is a technical inventory available. In the future, the production of these radars can be scaled up in anticipation of such deployment. Initially, obtaining at least a dozen such aircraft would be advantageous.
This system will undoubtedly have several drawbacks. For instance, a “fighter” radar cannot be housed in a “dish” above the fuselage like on the A-50, and even with an enlarged nose cone, a significant blind spot would remain. To address this, it might be necessary to install two radars on the aircraft – one in the tail. Nonetheless, this solution, though imperfect, is preferable to having no solution at all. In essence, we require dozens of aircraft of this type, at least a squadron per region, with several units being produced annually. However, achieving such numbers in the coming years for the A-50U or A-100 is unfeasible.
There exists an alternative. China has been mass-producing a specialized AWACS aircraft with an antenna in a rotating dorsal fairing based on the An-12, known as the KJ-500. Over the past decade, the PLA Air Force and naval aviation have acquired over 30 such aircraft. As a last resort, I recommend considering acquiring a certain number of these aircraft from China as an interim solution until a comparable model suitable for mass production is developed.
Posted by: Down South | Feb 25 2024 18:43 utc | 58
As someone else said, those two A-50s are worth to Russia as much as taking e.g. Sumy would be.
These are preparatory moves for a massive strategic strike on the Russian inferior.
Not some random ambush of opportunity. It is an extremely, extremely serious thing.
There is way too much nonchalance about it here. A-50 planes are strategic assets that are not easily replaceable, and there was already a dire shortage of them. There are very, very few things higher on the list of important assets in terms of the impact of taking out two of them — the SSBNs, the Voronezh-DM radars and the early warning satellites, what else?
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 18:47 utc | 59
Brilliant comments by Arestovych:
‘Oleksiy Arestovych, President Zelenskyy’s former spokesman, told the Unherd website that the root of Ukraine’s recruitment problem is that only 20% of Ukrainians believe in the anti-Russian Ukrainian nationalism that has controlled Ukrainian governments since the overthrow of the Yanukovych government in 2014. “What about the remaining 80%?” the interviewer asked.
“I think for most of them, their idea is of a multinational and poly-cultural country,” Arestovych replied. “And when Zelenskyy came into power in 2019, they voted for this idea. He did not articulate it specifically but it was what he meant when he said, ‘I don’t see a difference in the Ukrainian-Russian language conflict, we are all Ukrainians even if we speak different languages.’”
“And you know,” Arestovych continued, “my great criticism of what has happened in Ukraine over the last years, during the emotional trauma of the war, is this idea of Ukrainian nationalism which has divided Ukraine into different people: the Ukrainian speakers and Russian speakers as a second class of people. It’s the main dangerous idea and a worse danger than Russian military aggression, because nobody from this 80% of people wants to die for a system in which they are people of a second class.”’
https://www.counterpunch.org/2024/02/23/after-two-years-of-war-in-ukraine-its-time-for-peace/
Posted by: Ludo | Feb 25 2024 18:58 utc | 60
Zelensky claiming only 30k nazis liquidated in the course of the SMO.
Who is he kidding?
Posted by: Night Tripper | Feb 25 2024 19:08 utc | 61
Grieving Ukraine
Globalization’s Robin Hood-style levelling of global prosperity triggers a Western reactive crusade to slay the rising military power of so many anti-Western dragons.
https://www.beyondwasteland.net/p/grieving-ukraine
A couple of issues ago, and in the middle of some very informative comments and links, I happened to notice some very sharp comments directed at the late Colonel Lang.
Could I please take up space here to clear that up. Colonel Lang was a unique and deeply perceptive commentator who ran his site, as “b” here does, out of a firm belief that his country’s foreign policy had taken a wrong course. His credo was that he told the truth as it was given to him to know and he held to that right to the end.
Related to that, I should take up further space by rejecting the dismissal of the US and of the Western countries generally that surfaces so often in this comment section. As said before elsewhere:-
“America has not “gone rogue”. Nor will it. A few crazies in Washington have inched their way into power and influence over the last few years and this is the result.
One of the most experienced military/Intelligence experts, and a shrewd observer of the Washington scene, Colonel Pat Lang, watched it happen in real time.
“What was the “problem”? The sincerely held beliefs of a small group of people who think they are the “bearers” of a uniquely correct view of the world, sought to dominate the foreign policy of the United States in the Bush 43 administration, and succeeded in doing so through a practice of excluding all who disagreed with them. Those they could not drive from government they bullied and undermined …”
http://www.mepc.org/journal_vol11/0406_lang.asp
Alternative link:-
https://web.archive.org/web/20081129165544/http://www.mepc.org///journal_vol11/lang.pdf
Worth reading. It’s an insider’s account of how “the crazies got out of the basement.” They used to be called “hawks.” Now “neocons”. The terminology doesn’t matter. They are in charge in Washington now and our fate, and now that of the unfortunate Ukrainian PBI, is in their hands.”
Still is. The problems we in the West are currently encountering are not the result of some mass psychosis. As Macgregor so often insists, they result from actions taken by politicians in Washington, Berlin/Brussels, London and the other Western capitals whom we now permit to run our foreign policy for us. By none was that seen as clearly and as accurately as by Colonel Lang.
Hope that puts the record straight.
Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 25 2024 19:14 utc | 63
I have lurked here for over a year, rarely posting. I try to abide by b’s admonition to not attack other users. But I will break that now:
I am tired of the constant war-mongering by sean, shadowbanned, mtw, and others. Their only answer for anything is more death, more destruction, more escalation. Ukraine does X; bomb Kiev! Britain supplies cruise missiles; nuke London! The Americans supply weapons; sink a carrier group!
Apparently, they don’t read much else, otherwise they might realize that 1) the US is not near as powerful as it was, and more important, as it thinks it is, and 2) the US is stretched beyond breaking as it is today. There is no need for escalation.
They are apparently unaware that the US is close to a second civil war, and that the only thing likely to avert it is the appearance of an external enemy that would unify the Americans. A Russian escalation would be exactly what the Deep State craves – an attack that shames everyone into being ‘patriotic’. Netanyahu is playing the same trick in Palestine right now – it’s the only way he can cling to power.
So I am sick to f’ing death of reading their constant exhortations for ‘moar war’. As others have speculated, one has to wonder whose side they are really on. Like most sane people, I’d like to see the war over soon; these psychopaths want to expand it.
Posted by: FrankDrakman | Feb 25 2024 19:14 utc | 64
Sci-Fi guns becoming routine. Like a scene from The Terminator.
Russian video from Avdeevka. It’s worth a close look. It’s part of the proper EW strategy against FPVs. Once the route is secured from enemy personnel, dismounted teams with anti-drone rifles cover the route to provide cover for the troops using it against FPV attacks
https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/1449
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 25 2024 19:19 utc | 65
I agree that the western war profiteer ghouls should be the ones who pay. They are the ones pushing hapless conscripts into the meat grinder.
It is annoying when people call for the flattening of Kiev, because, in their minds, the US would surely back off if Kiev was destroyed. That is delusional.
Droning imperial puppets in Kiev is equally as useless.
Mass causalities at Davos or Munich, on the other hand, might cause a reaction. Would it be a standdown or nuclear war, is the question.
The safer way to do it would be an untraceable way, but I have no idea what that would be. An earthquake would be nice, but I’m not convinced that anyone has the power to do that. Plus, you have to rely on shoddy building construction. So, I don’t know.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Feb 25 2024 19:20 utc | 66
I think it was psychohistorian back on another post who gave an estimated, hoped for, guess that this all would end by Easter, so I just remind everyone that there’s a gap between Easters this year of over a month, as the four Orthodox Sundays of preparation before Lent begin today with the Feast of the Publican and the Pharisee.
Sooner would be better, even if still Lent for some. Western Easter(March 31) will only be the Orthodox second Sunday of Lent, and my calendar notes also “the Synaxis (assembly) of all the Saints of the Kiev Caves and Ukraine”, so a fine day that would be to celebrate.
Posted by: juliania | Feb 25 2024 19:21 utc | 67
by shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 18:47 utc | 60
Loss of a crew is more important than AWACS hardware. There is absolutely no credible and a clear evidence I have seen so far, on A-50. That plane is not based on anything Ilyushin is making. It is a Beriev airframe, pretty specific and only engines are, indeed, shared with Il-76. What Ukraine is claiming is a nonsense, what pro-Russian people write, too.
Posted by: whirlX | Feb 25 2024 19:21 utc | 68
I am tired of the constant war-mongering by sean, shadowbanned, mtw, and others. Their only answer for anything is more death, more destruction, more escalation.
Posted by: FrankDrakman | Feb 25 2024 19:14 utc | 65
You have it completely backwards — we want to end the war and are in complete desperation about the Kremlin’s self-defeating policies that prolong it.
This could all have been over with one nuclear strike on the NATO base in Rzezhow in April 2020 and about ten thousand mostly NATO military deaths.
Instead we have half a million, most of them ethnic Russians, dead two years later, and we are headed towards global nuclear exchange.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 19:29 utc | 69
Ukraine has admitted to 31,000
Posted by: The Accountant | Feb 25 2024 16:50 utc | 26
You do remember that after one year, their official dead count was 9k. That is nine. And for Russia they were saying over 100k. So 31k today is in the same logic of diversity hire at cia. I’m sorry to say most people in natostan do really believe it.
But the biggest nato propagandist is actually Russia. Always retreating, after referendum again retreating, protecting Ukr even today with the s(imulated)mo, no action in Kiev or outside Donbass. it’s a gift that keeps on giving
Posted by: rk | Feb 25 2024 19:31 utc | 70
Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 25 2024 19:14 utc | 64
“A few bad apples” story definitively ended last century—off the top of my head, during the Spanish-Ameridan Wars.
Posted by: sln2002 | Feb 25 2024 19:31 utc | 71
Posted by: whirlX | Feb 25 2024 19:21 utc | 69
The evidence of it being the A-50U are still non-conclusive. You can’t make out what type of aircraft it is from the footage. Someone also said the tail number indicated another type of aircraft than AWACS, and some claimed the tail was actually an IL-76 transport plane.
Next, the theories of S-200, or Patriot system sound very dubious. There simply isn’t enough range. What however was confirmed was the Global Hawk drone was off Sochi or Novorrossyisk at the time.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2024 19:33 utc | 72
@62
“Zelensky claiming only 30k nazis liquidated in the course of the SMO.”
Zelensky’s definitely lying.
Last summer, a NYT article reported that US officials estimated Ukie casualties as 70,000 KIA and 120,000 WIA. The same officials claimed Russia’s losses were 120,000 KIA and 180,000 KIA. (the NYT article is dated 8/18/23).
Obviously, US officials are certain to understate Ukraine’s losses and exaggerate Russia’s, although to what degree is impossible to ascertain.
Has anyone seen any updated estimates of Russian and Ukie casualties? I don’t mean figures released by Russia or Ukraine, as both sides have powerful incentives for spinning the truth.
But maybe some half-credible think tank or academic source has published casualty estimates recently?
Posted by: GW | Feb 25 2024 19:33 utc | 73
Zelensky claiming only 30k nazis liquidated in the course of the SMO.
Who is he kidding?
Posted by: Night Tripper | Feb 25 2024 19:08 utc | 62
well, they dont view the forcibly mobilized as their own, so they dont count for them…
Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 25 2024 19:35 utc | 74
I still doubt it was a Patriot, but if it was, it was not just a Patriot, but a Patriot with a previously undisclosed capability of shooting much further than the publicly announced range.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 18:20 utc | 47
Found this concerning the january incident.
Tomaž Vargazon
”
One way AWACS stay safe is by not being close to danger at any given time. Robotyne on the map is roughly the front line, the A-50 was over the Sea of Azov, some 150–200 km away from the front line. There are a few possibilities how this could have happened. It probably wasn’t Russian friendly fire again, Ukrainian action is by far the most likely.
The first option is a surface to air missile, but that would imply Ukrainians put a Patriot launcher right on the front line and engaged an aircraft on the very edge of the envelope of Patriot missiles. This would have been an extraordinary risky approach where potential gains are lacking. Shooting down an A-50 is nice and all, but not at the cost of a Patriot launcher or battery. You’d also expect the A-50 to operate in such a way to detect the launch and simply adjust course, the fact it’s on the very edge of the engagement envelope makes an evasion maneuver relatively easy. If it was a SAM it means Ukrainians obtained something with a longer range than the Patriot, the only common system is the S-400, but sources of that are lacking indeed.
The other and much more likely option is an air to air missile, such as AIM-120D AMRAAM. It would be possible for a Ukrainian fighter to launch an AIM-120D from approximately the front line and it could hit the A-50, but it’s again fraught with problems. To achieve this range the plane would have to be flying high and probably supersonic, Russians have their own fighters at all times in the air to intercept them. An AIM-120D is certainly possible, but it would again mean an extremely high risk mission for a comparatively low reward target. Russia won’t be running out of A-50s in the next few weeks, but Ukraine might run out of launch platforms.
And thus we reach the last option, the only one that doesn’t mean Ukrainians exposed themselves to undue risks to take out the A-50. There is a missile that fits the criteria, an air-breathing air to air missile, the Meteor.
The Meteor is about the size of AIM-120, but uses an air-breathing ramjet engine. It has enough fuel for 200 km of powered flight, plus 80–100 km of glided flight. By contrast, the AIM-120 only has enough fuel for 30 km of powered flight, it glides the rest of the way. This is typical for intermediate range air to air missiles. The MBDA Meteor has enough range to perform this task without exposing Ukrainian aircraft to undue danger and it would be the weapon of choice to take out an AWACS in any event.
There is another data point we can use to gauge what the likely cause was. In the same incident, an Il-76 airborne reconnisance plane was damaged, but managed to land. We have images of damage from that plane.
The Il-76 was clearly a target of a missile. Damage is consistent with both a Patriot or a Meteor missile, but the extent of the damage is more in line with a smaller air to air warhead than the larger surface to air warhead. The difference is about a factor of 3, surface to air missiles have significantly larger warheads. We can’t completely rule out a Patriot simply exploding further away, but the damage on the tail, and the fact the plane landed safely, at are all more consistent with a smaller warhead of an air to air missile.
If my deducation is correct it would mean Ukrainians recieved Meteor missiles and integrated them onto a platform, MiG-29 seems most likely. This means Russian AWACS will be pushed back by another 100 km or more and no Russian plane above Crimea is safe. This is absolutely devastating, more so than the loss of ~12% of their AWACS fleet.
”
Posted by: 600w | Feb 25 2024 19:36 utc | 75
The fact of the matter is : the US has not suffered one bit throughout the last two years. People may hallucinate otherwise, but that’s truth.And that’s the essence of shadowbanned’s point. The US has not had to suffer any negative consequence because Russia has not dared to retaliate.
That might be true militarily. A few dead mercs and a drone or two lost, at least officially.
However I can assure you that serious damage was done to the US economically in 2022 with diesel prices hitting $6/gallon and inflation that is still ongoing.
Some of the rot has been since excised but the longer the war goes on the more the US fiscal picture deteriorates.
I almost wish the pants-sh1tter in chiefs $101B foreign aid package would pass, because it would speed up the inevitable collapse of the dollar even more. The current House rebels are helping keep at least part of the inflationary printing of fiat down.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 25 2024 19:37 utc | 76
Posted by: GW | Feb 25 2024 19:33 utc | 75
General Kryvonos, the retired chief of Ukraine’s security council (I believe he also took part in the Kiev defense) already talked in September 2022 of ‘hundreds of thousands of casualties’ on live TV.
Mind you, that was after the AFU Kherson offensive (which was complete head banging against the wallbut Russia still relied on ‘mobile defense’ which worked well for what it was), but before the attack originating from Kharkov through Balakleya to Izyum.
Zelensky is full of BS. And by full meaning they are omitting over 90% of casualties. Oh yeah almost forgot, the rest are just ‘missing in action’ that explains it all…
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2024 19:38 utc | 77
Some posts, #70 for instance, are so absurdly long as to constitute spam, even if unintentionally. Try checking the big egos at the door, eh?
Posted by: Robert E.Smith | Feb 25 2024 19:43 utc | 78
In a global one government world, there are no nation state boundaries, so who would respond to defend or avenge such an attack and how would the attacker decide what to attack?
Under a one world government it would be difficult to pit one government against another government?
Posted by: snake | Feb 25 2024 15:53 utc | 12
Really? So then no one has any power to resist the psychopaths running government?
Better solution: get rid of ALL GOVERNMENTS and their billion/trillion dollar militaries and other organizaions.
Governments are the biggest killers, biggest destroyers, and biggest thieves of any of mankind’s creations. Nothing else even comes close.
Then a couple of generations of rewarding individuals who have the same psychopathic flaws and behaviors governments have with a free eternal dirt nap will finally remove the animal world from man and man from the animal world.
Of course this can never happen because it is impossible for 99+ percent of mankind to stop being the animals they are designed to be.
Posted by: Drapetomaniac | Feb 25 2024 19:58 utc | 79
shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 15:28 utc | 10
Putin is on record now talking about how this is a civil war.
After 25 years (Chechenia) he finally understood?
These are and have always been Russian problems that have not been solved. Evil people say, which were created by the last Soviet governments. ( see Chrutschow — Crimea and Karabach, Ossetia, Transnistria — Gorbatschow )
* unresolved social problems,
* unresolved structural problems,
* unresolved political problems,
* unresolved national problems
( Ossetie, Chechenia, Karabach, Kasachstan, Baltikum,
the full list is a horror )
shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 15:28 utc | 10
Well, if it is a civil war forced on you by the West, then the West is responsible for both the RF an AFU deaths, and they are both your own casualties, not somebody else’s.
If Putin also said this, the realization was very short time.
25 yaers for 1 phrase and than game over again
(No problem, that’s why he was cheated on so many times)
The West want a benevolent government ( in evry country) and the play and pay or play and pay than.
Iran, Korea, China have a same wishlist, a benevolent government to them.
and this is ok too
Posted by: theo | Feb 25 2024 19:58 utc | 80
That is correct — the only place where “they” can be hit and that will really hurt is going after the Western oligarchy directly.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 15:28 utc | 10
About a week ago Russia executed such a move. Ecuador has some weapons made in Russia, and USA convinced the government there to let them buy it, with an obvious purpose. That would mean that Ecuador violates final destination clause that let the seller veto prospective further sales — standard in weapon exports, but…
Then sanitary authorities in Russia discovered some bugs in bananas from Ecuador, and Russia buys 20% of Ecuador banana exports. Is it crucial for Ecuador economy? Perhaps not, but the new president is a banana tycoon, so it went straight to his pocket. Finding alternative market takes time AND discounts, in the meantime some bananas will rot… Happy ending: ammo stays in Ecuador, bananas are back in their best sanitary condition.
But Russia does not have many possibilities of that nature. Russia confiscated jet liners leased from the West, or something close to it, and the affected companies were compensated (by EU? my memory is hazy). Typically, CEOs of companies loosing assets or markets in Russia are not hit on their personal pockets, or only a little.
Looking closer, how much did Russia loose through miseries inflicted on her oligarchs, properties lost, funds frozen… ? As a country, perhaps nothing. Oligarchs cannot safely park profits abroad, they have to invest (or deposit) at home. Russia was running trade surplus partially because of “export of private capital”, so now she needs less exports for a given amount of imports, and gets more private investments.
Conceptually, a war “to the last oligarch/financial tycoon” would be nice, but we do not have feudalism anymore.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 25 2024 20:01 utc | 81
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 19:29 utc | 71
The destruction of Rzeszow airport did NOT require a nuclear attack. You treat the use of nukes very casually, ignoring further consequences.
Rzeszow could have been targeted with devastating strikes after offering dire warnings. The Norwegian pipeline could have been blown up. Global Hawk and other unmanned reconnaissance aircraft could have been targeted after the west ignored warnings not to utilize NATO ISR or after the first attack on the An-50. But none of that requires the use of nukes, tactical or strategic.
Posted by: Constantine | Feb 25 2024 20:15 utc | 82
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 25 2024 20:01 utc | 83
I wasn’t talking about hitting their businesses.
I was talking about physical liquidation of the individuals and their families.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 20:15 utc | 83
People who comment here have much more knowledge than me. I would like some information. I don’t know what was the production (quantity) of weapons produced in the USA – England – France etc., which were delivered to Ukraine. They say that stocks in these countries are at critical levels. Does anyone have this information? How many HIMARS, Storm Shadow, MIM-104 Patriot, SCALP-EG missile systems were built and delivered to Ukraine?
Posted by: Michel | Feb 25 2024 20:17 utc | 84
Hmnn.
If I was Russia at this point, I would be quite happy to see a reasonable number of Abrams and F16s deployed. I ( Russia) have shown all other weapons developed by the West, including sophisticated missiles, to be vulnerable to russian countermeasures.
This is a propaganda victory,especially if the US elites then have to go into a bitter, poisonous election with a backdrop of burned out Abrams and shot down F16s.
Not really good for instilling fear into smaller nations or vassals…
Posted by: Judge Barbier | Feb 25 2024 20:18 utc | 85
The destruction of Rzeszow airport did NOT require a nuclear attack. You treat the use of nukes very casually, ignoring further consequences.
Rzeszow could have been targeted with devastating strikes after offering dire warnings. The Norwegian pipeline could have been blown up. Global Hawk and other unmanned reconnaissance aircraft could have been targeted after the west ignored warnings not to utilize NATO ISR or after the first attack on the An-50. But none of that requires the use of nukes, tactical or strategic.
Posted by: Constantine | Feb 25 2024 20:15 utc | 84
It’s a very large object, it would have taken hundreds of missiles. And you ignore the issue of what the mere fact of detecting such a salvo flying towards Europe with no idea what they are carrying and what their targets are would trigger.
But sure, if technically possible, do it with conventional missiles. The point is, it should have been destroyed, so that the gravity of the situation is made clear to the idiots in Europe — “you carry on with this, you will be destroyed and no Article 5 will save you, it is that important to us”.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 20:19 utc | 86
I love how the usual suspects are posting actual Ukr propaganda. Under the guise of the “RF not doing enough”. When Russia is methodically knocking the crap out of the AFU.
Case in point: “two A-50’s shot down” when the first one was clearly a hoax, the second wasn’t confirmed to date.
Meaning the only AWACS loss happened on the ground. Last f**king year and the valuable part I.E the crew survived.
We’re seeing the (re)cuing up of the old NATO/US hasn’t lost anything trope. Well I suppose, aside from being dysfunctional, misgoverned, debt-ridden messes with decaying armed forces.
On that last note, I will reiterate something again for the slower wits:
NATO DOESN’T FIGHT THOSE WHO CAN FIGHT BACK HEAD-ON! EVER!
Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 25 2024 20:23 utc | 87
The Belarusians can thank all the gods of this world that the Russians recognized the game there. Thanks to all the gods that we don’t see the same show there too.
There the Kremel talk and explanatory Masters get the show or Luka help him there. Luka is sure a patriot
( Medwetschuk get 2022 only some Billions $ and we see ? )
Posted by: theo | Feb 25 2024 20:24 utc | 88
Does anyone have this information? How many HIMARS, Storm Shadow, MIM-104 Patriot, SCALP-EG missile systems were built and delivered to Ukraine?
Posted by: Michel | Feb 25 2024 20:17 utc | 86
The short answer — a lot more than was publicly declared.
But how much exactly nobody without inside connections knows.
As to what the production levels are, that is one of the underappreciated mysteries of the war. Everywhere you look into the Western MIC, you see that fully de novo production of all kinds of stuff either ended altogether years ago, or was drastically curtailed. It’s not even clear what exactly they produce currently. F-35s, sure, air-to-air missiles in some quantities, some SAMs, some HIMARS missiles, but what else?
As far as I know, nobody in Europe or the US was building new tank hulls at the moment the SMO started. Not the British, not the French, not the Americans, not even the Germans. Only the Koreans and the Turks in the broader NATO/”West”. Tomahawk missiles are not being built from scratch, but refurbished from older stock. Etc. etc.
What was the plan here exactly all this time? Unless it was never to need these things and directly move to other means of destruction…
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 20:24 utc | 89
Case in point: “two A-50’s shot down” when the first one was clearly a hoax, the second wasn’t confirmed to date.
Meaning the only AWACS loss happened on the ground. Last f**king year and the valuable part I.E the crew survived.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 25 2024 20:23 utc | 89
It’s the exact opposite — the one on the ground was not lost at all.
The other two were confirmed by FighterBomber.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 20:26 utc | 90
85
Soros & son…..
Soros = colored revolution = rusophobia = anti slavic = anti orthodoxy
Posted by: tesla | Feb 25 2024 20:31 utc | 91
Party over in Kiev kids – you’re going to the front.
https://twitter.com/Darthprophet/status/1761510407703793753
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 25 2024 20:34 utc | 92
Everyone knows that there is no financial “magic”.
Building a system like Patriot takes months, if not years. And the cost is astronomical. Just the system, without the missiles.
The price of a missile exceeds 2 million dollars. There is no war that can be sustained with these costs. They said that a 155 mm grenade produced in Europe went from 5 thousand euros to 14 thousand.
Multiply that by the 8,000 daily shots they say Ukraine fired? We’re talking about ammunition. There are thousands of other items that must be taken to the battlefield.
Posted by: Michel | Feb 25 2024 20:34 utc | 93
In the villages west of Avdeevka.
1. Petrovskoye (formerly Stepovoye) – part of the RF Armed Forces, part of the gray zone – the enemy has retreated to Berdychi and is shelling the western part of Petrovskoye.
2. Berdychi – completely under the enemy.
3. Orlovka – completely under the enemy.
4. Lastochkino – mostly under the RF Armed Forces, the enemy fled to Orlovka during the day, there is no photo/video evidence yet from our side from the western outskirts.
5. Severnoe – at least part of the village under the RF Armed Forces. There is no evidence of complete control yet. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not yet officially announced the capture of Severny, as well as Lastochkino.
6. Tonenkoe – there are reports of battles already directly in Tonenkoe. There is no photo/video confirmation yet.
Posted by: Down South | Feb 25 2024 20:39 utc | 94
In 2003. there was some resistance in Europe against the invasion on Iraq. But now, there is no political resistance against wars in Ukraine and Palestine.
So in 20 years European countries lost their sovereignty.
How has this happened? It was not so long period.
Posted by: vargas | Feb 25 2024 20:43 utc | 95
Posted by: Urban Fox | Feb 25 2024 20:23 utc | 89
Dude, this isn’t a pissing contest, but a debate in an internet site. That is the purpose of it after all.
Your point about NATO being unwilling to confront real opponents who fight back has plenty of merit. But when NATO personnel uses advanced assets to harm not insignificant numbers of troops and civilians, all the while masquerading as “Ukrainians”, its goals are fulfilled. When therefore those attacked are UNABLE to actually “fight back” precisely because NATO hides behind the Ukrainians, there is a problem as per your own point.
Furthermore, the argument of so many posters for Russian restraint is exactly the opposite of yours: that NATO is very much willing to get involved in the fight and all it requires is an excuse offered from the Russians. Your point (and it may well be the correct one) is that they would not get involved because the Russians are not as weak as other targets. Which is why the NATOists fight behind Ukrainian backs and playing with rules of fraudulent plausibility so as to deny the Russians the ability to effectively “fight back”, the very factor that you emphasized.
Posted by: Constantine | Feb 25 2024 20:48 utc | 96
71
even if Putin would plan to kill as many russians as possible he wouldnt reach the number of 500k dath russians. But with his braindead slow SMO he killed & still kills so many Russians
This man is the worst and most incompetent Russian leader in history! Moreover he is a naive weakling and traitor!
Sorry but this must be said
He has the tools to finish of all ukrojewnazis & his western partners within one day but he choosed the bloody way
Posted by: tesla | Feb 25 2024 20:50 utc | 97
Reuters is making shit up now
Russia will try new offensive in Ukraine this summer, Zelenskiy says
What is or was the old offensive? Ukraine won’t make it until this summer, IMO
tick-tock, tick-tock, crash!
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 25 2024 20:55 utc | 98
You have it completely backwards — we want to end the war and are in complete desperation about the Kremlin’s self-defeating policies that prolong it.
Posted by: shаdοwbanned | Feb 25 2024 19:29 utc | 71
#######
Pick up a rifle, son. All of this Internet Warrior stuff is seriously cutting into your anime time.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 25 2024 20:56 utc | 99
‘In 2003. there was some resistance in Europe against the invasion on Iraq. But now, there is no political resistance against wars in Ukraine and Palestine.
So in 20 years European countries lost their sovereignty.
How has this happened? It was not so long period.
Posted by: vargas | Feb 25 2024 20:43 utc | 97’
Modern liberalism happened.
Nonstop torrents of virtue-signalling propaganda that simultaneously promotes western supremacy through a superior culture and morality and further offers justification for the criminality of the politicos and their masters. Mostly it’s the ultra-prog variety with the less common conservative themes wherever needed.
Add to that a consistent and sophisticated policy of rewarding those subservient to the Anglo-American empire with material affluence and social prominence (again, the bonus of the propaganda tropes just mentioned), whether its the political class or the presstitute media and you end up with the current abasement of the EU to the diktats of Washington and London.
Plenty of examples, but Finland tops the cake.
Posted by: Constantine | Feb 25 2024 20:56 utc | 100