Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 18, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-053

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

“The real change in performance is as a result of the Russian military being in the end-cycle of assimilation and distribution of combat experienced personnel, using adapted SOP’s, whereas the Ukrainian’s are in the end-cycle of a decline and deterioration of their accumulated combat knowledge. The former only increases in strength, as force survival rates and thus combat knowledge accumulation steadily increase, the latter is the reverse, both cycles interact and influence each other, further accelerating the speed of the respective incline/decline cycles. The terminal glide path of Ukrainian combat effectiveness steepens daily, Western ISR/logistical/training support and sporadic deployments of high-end systems could only buy time, not reverse this age old phenomenon; however, this is how the intellectually mediocre and competency-challenged gamblers, who currently run the West, operate. Anything to extend their reign, days literally bought with the blood and tears of those they supposedly serve.”
Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2024 17:48 utc | 41
I took the liberty of taking ths above passage and through chatGPT I asked for it in ‘iambic pentameter”:
In the realm of military strategy’s plight,
The Russians, with their seasoned, skilled might,
In end-cycle of assimilation’s flow,
With SOPs adapted, they deftly know.
While Ukrainians, in their decline’s embrace,
See combat knowledge wither, lose its grace.
One rises strong, with force survival’s aid,
The other falls, with skills in sharp downgrade.
These cycles, intertwined, their paths entwine,
Each influencing the other’s design.
Acceleration mounts, with speed they turn,
Incline and decline, in dance they yearn.
Ukrainian effectiveness, on a downward glide,
Each passing day, a steeper, harsher ride.
Western aid, with ISR and logistics bright,
May stall, but cannot reverse their plight.
Yet the rulers of the West, with minds unclear,
Gamble on, extending reigns with fear.
Buying days with blood and tears, they strive,
Their rule sustained, as many barely thrive.

Posted by: canuck | Feb 19 2024 12:41 utc | 201

“Yes, they are now, but it wasn’t always so. Before they decided to “de-communize”, they made amazing Antonov aircraft. The Ukraine produced remarkable people like engineers Sergei Korolev and Igor Sikorsky, composer Sergei Prokofiev, and skater Oksana Baiul. Sure, Baiul went to shit, but that happened pretty much at the same time and for the same reason the rest of the Ukraine went to shit: the embrace of western (US) culture. They sunk into turbo-delusion. Like a society of heroin addicts living in their dreams they let everything of beauty and value in the Ukraine turn to shit while they imagined how wonderful their lives could be if they were born into an American soap opera like Dallas or Baywatch. They absolutely loved Dallas… doubtless that is what they imagined typical life in capitalist society was like and so felt cheated and robbed by the Communists… delusional fools.
Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 18 2024 22:40 utc | 96
You summed up the Ukrainian twisted fascination of the West post 1991 in one succinct paragraph-marvelous.

Posted by: canuck | Feb 19 2024 12:47 utc | 202

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 18 2024 18:41 utc | 53
Except, the US countermeasures will come in 3-5 years late, several billion US$ over-budget, and only work on Tuesdays under tightly constrained laboratory conditions.
The Russian nationalized-MIC, combined with their high output of STEM-graduates, seems the better bet at rapidly developing effective countermeasures.
The US has lost the ability to engineer much beyond web-sites, and shady financial instruments.
Posted by: retroflecks | Feb 19 2024 9:30 utc | 179
Fishing trawlers, with reinforced keel, patrols.
Zig zagging on the way.
They can catch, they can ram, and when there is nothing to catch you get fresh fish as a bonus!

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 19 2024 12:59 utc | 203

As to Odessa, if Kiev collapses and they cheer Russian liberators, that’s fine. Odessa is still a long ways away, relative to movement in battle lines. The White House just announced that there is only “plan A” for Ukraine and nothing else. Russia can do better than such Western foolishness and still get what it needs. I don’t think any of us would wish to see Odessa end up heavily bombed.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 19 2024 13:02 utc | 204

Ukraine has no answer for the precision glider bombs. Russia can now wipe out large targeted areas. They have enormous quantities of FAB 500’s. This destroys morale and makes advancing much easier. Ukraine needs to surrender.

Posted by: Kurt | Feb 19 2024 13:03 utc | 205

“@112, apologies to Polsan, had a real bad day, no excuse, but we burried a friend today, who while having a mental break down, in their own home, was shot and killed by police conducting a mental wellness check…..such is the state of Health Care in Canada…..”
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 19 2024 0:10 utc | 114
My deepest condolences sean; my younger son is schizophrenic and my wife and I are quite fearful of ‘Health Care in Canada” and , of course, the rough , idiotic police forces here in Canada.

Posted by: canuck | Feb 19 2024 13:06 utc | 206

Posted by: Cynic | Feb 19 2024 1:01 utc | 127
Yup, just after expressing doubt’s about the nature of Jesus’ incarnation. The headline writers had a field day!
Posted by: AJ | Feb 19 2024 3:06 utc | 144
Not for the night bombing runs, then rivers were the principle waypoint check, hence Durham’s vulnerability, St Paul’s miraculous escape and Coventry’s fate.
The posters talking about exploitation after Avdeevka need to realise that the Russian Army has to meticulously plan operations due to the limitations of their rail-based logistics system, another inheritance from the Soviet era. What you see, in the aftermath of Avdeevka’s capture, might look like reactionary spontaneity but it’s simply a byproduct of careful coordination, contingency planning and timetabling. This approach is, by necessity, a cautious one and explains the current operational tempo, rather than invented conspirators interfering with the ‘Red Steamroller’, which was as fictitious a military concept as the Blitzkrieg.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2024 13:10 utc | 207

Another double Iskander strike hit in Selydove overnight. (Dima’s latest @ 6:33 mark)
Drone shot angle appears to be from the south looking north, impacts suggest targets around lat 48.140 |lon 37.301 a large school complex, one seems to have targeted the west side of parking lot, another the east wing of bldg itself.

Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 19 2024 13:12 utc | 208

200…this confirms my post few days ago…a known person after4 weeks training from Kharkiv now on frontline stating that behind them were Polish and UK military directing affairs .

Posted by: Jo | Feb 19 2024 13:19 utc | 209

Passerby @ 53

The British marine drones are a pest. What to do? Perhaps the easiest way to solve the problem is give a few of these “Sea-Doo” marine drones to the Houthis.

FOR THE FIRST TIME – U.S. CENTCOM confirms Yemeni undersea drone attack in Red Sea taking place yesterday – marking major development in the waterway.
Between the hours of 3:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. (Sanaa time), Feb. 17, CENTCOM successfully conducted five self-defense strikes against three mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, one unmanned underwater vessel (UUV), and one unmanned surface vessel (USV) in Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. This is the first observed Houthi employment of a UUV since attacks began in Oct. 23.

https://t.me/IntelRepublic/34212

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 19 2024 13:22 utc | 210

Posted by: Jo | Feb 19 2024 13:19 utc | 209
Martyanov in a recent video said that one AFU troop captured was asked where his commander was. He said the commander is somewhere 20km behind the front line.
In the Soviet motor rifle regiment structure, commanders can often locate 1 – 2 km behind the first line of defense. Sitting 20 km away could indicate a broken chain of command. Albeit of course you could factor some communication technology advancements, but still.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2024 13:10 utc | 207
Most likely capturing Avdeevka will help to consolidate Donetsk as a large railhead, enabling bringing stuff much closer to the front than before. At least that was someones analysis.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 13:27 utc | 211

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 13:27 utc | 211
Yup, railheads have always been the key to Russia’s operational successes and a contributory cause for their failure when absent. The capture of Avdeevka also means those supplies stockpiled for its capture can be redirected to open other offensives or continue this axes, their likely decision wedded to the maxim the Soviets inherited and the Germans forgot, regarding reinforcing failure.
Re: Soviet command doctrine, they’ve altered it significantly regarding offensive action, with HQ elements more likely to remotely control operations, thus reducing the risk to command elements from the lethal synergy of the ISR-PGM combo, experienced early on.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2024 13:48 utc | 212

Zelensky and his generals travel around the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I started with Kupyansk, then there will be Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk and Zaporozhye.
In the general Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, rumors are actively circulating about the preparation of a negotiation process by Yermak with the participation of Erdogan and emissaries of the United Arab Emirates. That Western aid is becoming less and less, and the daily losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasing.
If the rumors are true, Zelensky is really trying to understand what the actual bargaining is for, how many territories he will lose and in what dynamics.

https://t.me/budnisvo/3356

Posted by: too scents | Feb 19 2024 13:49 utc | 213

“The man deserves our respect for his forbearance.”
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Feb 19 2024 10:11 utc | 184
Definitely. You provided excellent and valid points, which makes this issue so complicated and controversial.
I wish to emphasize one more point which is difficult to reconcile with Putin’s gullibility and friendliness-toward-the-West theory. It is his sharp criticism of Western policies delivered at the Munich security conference in 2007, which marked the date when the West started to see Putin as an enemy.

Posted by: Pagan | Feb 19 2024 14:00 utc | 214

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 19 2024 13:22 utc | 210
Those class of ships could hear those glorified torpedoes from approx 100-200km away, I’d also guess an outer perimeter with dunking sonars or sensor buoys is being used, or a SSN is sprinting and drifting.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2024 14:03 utc | 215

#167…there been “light” bombing of one street of the Prague in the very end of the WW2 in the MAY of 1945 in …maybe Honzo ..know more about it…

Posted by: sejmon | Feb 19 2024 14:15 utc | 216

—-
This is the first observed Houthi employment of a UUV since attacks began in Oct. 23.
https://t.me/IntelRepublic/34212
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 19 2024 13:22 utc | 210
—-
Houthis getting strats from MoA bar. /sarc
Also I saw news the UK Rubymar ship that was hit yesterday is now abandoned and at risk of sinking, and they also claimed (video only shows something at thousands of feet in the air blowing up, and no real indication of where video was taken) they took out another us mq-9 over the weekend, which would be the second in the last 30 days if memory serves.

Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 19 2024 14:17 utc | 217

Re the Duran reporting that Putin hates Merkel so much for her lying over the Minsk treaty.
I do think that they and VVP ‘protest too much’.
To start with She ain’t there anymore.
Second she as all other German post war chancellors are simply heading a military occupied state – the yanks and Brits have never withdrawn their ‘victorious’ forces as Russia did from ALL its gains.
So even though she thought she was negotiating in good faith the Caesars and Imperial Generals had a veto over everything. She was used because they thought Putin was likely to accept her seniority and changing circumstances in European politics. Macron – no would trust as far they could spit at him even. The Brits and Yanks likewise knowing their roles in being the states that supported and protected nazios.
The actions of pushing the response from RF with bombing Donbass started only after she left.
There was no such action whilst she was there.
She was instrumental in getting NS2 built for German and EU energy security.
Now given such facts – VVP saying that the last person he would ever trust and deal with as the interlocutor in the coming peace talks and surrender is Merkel – in my book makes her exactly the only person who would be acceptable to both sides. Also between the Multipolar and unipolar. Well unless they want to go for someone from the Global South.
Mutti knows best.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 19 2024 14:21 utc | 218

The BBC’s News website is working overtime pumping out Russophobic propaganda lies today.
This is the latest – Complete with endearing photos of her saintly-self:
“…… In a video statement, Navalnaya vowed to continue her husband’s work and called on those watching not to be afraid. “What we need is a free, peaceful and happy Russia… The country Alexei Navalny imagined” ….. ”
In other words – Regime change.
The voice of the CIA and the Soros crowd.

Posted by: Engineer-John | Feb 19 2024 14:27 utc | 219

Some interesting facts I wasn’t aware of:
– Ukrainian troops have shelled Donetsk and the surrounding countryside each year multiple times per year since the Maidan revolution in 2014. No wonder, Russia was VERY determined to conquer Avdieevka. I assume that the same story applies to the city of Bachmut.
– The Ukraïne had ammassed in february 2022 some 60.000 soldiers to attack Donetsk and that region.
– Syrski had concentrated his troops in Adievka. There was another reason why he had “concentrated” in that region. Concentrating those troops over there also meant that the ukrainian army were able to make sure the ill trained troops wouldn’t flee from Adieevka and e.g. surrender to russian troops.

Posted by: WMG | Feb 19 2024 14:34 utc | 220

Russia now storming Robotyne.
That’s the last village taken during the “clusterfuck-fensive” last summer.
So, the entire shitshiw hyped by western stooge media last year is about to become a complete fail.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Feb 19 2024 14:54 utc | 221

The Follow The Money series
Anyone care to dispute or provide more detail on exactly why ‘to the last Ukrainian (with landowning rights perhaps?) needs to be minced?
“ Who owns the lands of Ukraine for 2024 – suddenly someone forgot.
In 2021, the law on the sale of land came into force in Ukraine. As the Australian National Review neatly reported, “companies from the United States have used the new legislation to make massive investments in the country.”
Now Cargill, Monsanto and Dupont (investors – Vanguard, Blackrock and Blackstone) own 40% of Ukraine’s arable land. For permission to sell land, Ukraine received a $17 billion loan from the IMF, and offices of all three corporations were opened in Kiev.
GMA-Monsanto Corporation directly and through a number of intermediary companies already in 2022 owned 78% of the land fund of Sumy region, 56% of Chernihiv, 59% of Kherson and 47% of Mykolaiv region, She also has 34% of the land in the Kiev and Dnipropetrovsk regions pledged.
Also in 2013, the South China Morning Post reported that China (represented by Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps) had acquired 3 million hectares of Ukrainian land — land the size of Belgium “leased for 99 years with the right of redemption.”
“28% of Ukraine’s arable land is owned by a mixture of Ukrainian oligarchs, European and North American corporations, as well as the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia.”
The scientists also reported that the owners of Ukrainian (on paper) agricultural holdings “have long been American NCH Capital, French AgroGeneration, German ADM Germany, KWS, Bayer and BASF, Saudi PIF and SALIC.”
In the end, American researchers come to an amazing conclusion – the Russian SMO “takes place on chernozems sold to foreigners for a long time” “
https://t.me/vicktop55/21514
That’s why I say there is no need to invade the whole of the borderlands. Let the peace come and let democracy decide. The regions can have referendums on which side they want to belong.
The Polish, Hungarian or Romanian parts. The RF and its social welfare part. Or the Rump that the bankers will inherit?
One thing for sure what the wankers think they bought that is under direct RF borders – they will never own. Regardless of how many contracts they have shelenskis signature on.
That’s why the lobster eaters of Munich are crying- their masters drive them on.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 19 2024 14:57 utc | 222

“THE BUTCHER’: Ukraine Sends Troops To MEAT GRINDER To Prevent Retreat”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv4DQfpRd3E

Posted by: WMG | Feb 19 2024 15:09 utc | 223

If there is still a massive amount of Ukro troops left to fight then I hope they are mostly of the conscripted, 2-week training variety and are easily mowed down or want to surrender!!
The Avdeevka collapse NEEDS to be the catalyst that stops this fighting and sends sane individuals to the negotiating table pronto….
Happy Family Day to those relaxing at home, at the hearth!😀

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 19 2024 15:12 utc | 224

I don’t get any impression that Ukrainians have lost the will to fight. The Nazis remained a dangerous enemy until very close to the end and as they were pushed over long geographies. Same with the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia. European armies are not Arabs or Persians that get routed.
Also, there remain significant dangers from mines and drones for open terrain advancement. This is why we don’t see blitzkrieg tactics, much.
Avdiivka was a rout at the very end. But required months of preparation with artillery and air bombardment, as well as two significant breaching operations (the south and center). And the south one was pretty lucky/innovative with the tunnel. Again, it was a rout at the end, but the Ukrainians held well for many months.
This is not a video game. The Russians understand all of the above. Next moves will be deliberate and have significant planning and probing. It won’t be some keyboard warrior fantasy.
Oh…and look at a map, Odessa dreamers. Just look at the map.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 19 2024 15:44 utc | 225

I do have some hopes that Lastditchkno (funny name) can be taken. But it’s interesting that it wasn’t right away.
And also, the defenses in Stepove maintain their teeth and have confounded the Russians for months. Not saying that nut doesn’t eventually get cracked. But if it does, it will take some significant effort. Won’t just be a video game speed run.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 19 2024 15:48 utc | 226

Just reported NTV/ Germany
Russians sacrificed more than 50,000 soldiers, 130 tanks, and around 78 guns and 7 jets for a militarily insignificant city?
As expected, the city was insignificant
Russians offered 50,000
This wouldn’t have happened with F16.
Conclusion: Putin sacrificed soldiers for his positive news before his elections.
Presented by an analyst who has never held a weapon in his hand, it wasn’t his analysis that was bought, the whole analyst was bought!
But the city itself is totally insignificant for Ukraine.
Well, we in Germany have gotten used to forgetting what TV stations and the press write.
And we “old” people from the former GDR (Eastern Zone) NEVER believed the press, we grew up with their lies!
But we also grew up with Russians and can form our own opinions, who from here can say that?

Posted by: osssi | Feb 19 2024 15:57 utc | 227

Maxim Kuzminov, the Russian pilot that flew a helicopter to Ukraine in 2023 has been murdered in Spain. Two other crew members were shot in conjunction with the event. Kuzminov bragged he was paid $500k, and supposedly had problems with alcohol and drugs.
Police suspect Ukraine’s special service murdered Kuzminov as an inconvenient witness.
https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1759606892425269444

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 15:58 utc | 228

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 19 2024 15:44 utc | 225
“I don’t get any impression that Ukrainians have lost the will to fight. ”
Me neither.
It may be the worst is yet to come. Sort of like the Battle of the Bulge

Posted by: Johnny Dollar | Feb 19 2024 16:01 utc | 229

by Honzo | Feb 19 2024 4:59 utc | 154
Look at a map. Odessa oblast abuts Moldova and Romania, both of which are currently hostile to Russia.
And that is exactly why Russia should emerge on that NATO border.
It blocks NATO totally in the whole Northern part of the Black Sea, thus making Crimea safe.
Odessa, as a city is not important at all. It will surrender on its own, when, and not if, surrounded.
The main success would be for RF to cut the Odessa Oblast in half, connecting to Transnistria and troops there, getting Izmail and the Northern Danube Delta, peeking over the Focsani gate, that opens the direct view to the Central Europe.
That is why NATO recently moved 101st Airborne to Constanta.
For a RF to take that area is not easy, but in a combined air naval assault, with lots of preparation is very doable. That is a small area, swamps mostly, very few roads, no big cities.
For that to work well, a NATO’s ISR take-down is a prerequisite.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 19 2024 16:05 utc | 230

Posted by: osssi | Feb 19 2024 15:57 utc | 227
Please change your nickname,troll.
n-tv (RTL) is a liars around the clock lying tv-station…
Und freundliche Grüße an Ossi

Posted by: Oberbayer | Feb 19 2024 16:08 utc | 231

It may be the worst is yet to come. Sort of like the Battle of the Bulge
Posted by: Johnny Dollar | Feb 19 2024 16:01 utc | 229

seeing how the west wont stop pouring weapons into this conflict, along with vacationeers, this is going to escalate bigly, to paraphrase trump.
their drone coalition already anounced that they will send “thousands of ai swarm drones” to the ukraine.
annalena the nazi boasts already about the 13th sanctions package, with secondary sanctions against china/india. some uae banks are now introducing restrictions to financial transactions with the russian federation, and on and on.
they will never stop. they have invested their soul into ukrainian lands. the sunk cost phallacy (yes, i am spelling that intentionally this way) among the garden cannot allow them to pull out.
all their pr and propaganda cannot be reversed, and they are afraid of explaining to the people that it was all a lie, so double, triple, quadruple, all the numbers down.
they are now also calling protesting farmers kremlin supporters.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 19 2024 16:13 utc | 232

#231
.
Wrong my friend!
The Ossi is also the Ossi, it was just a typo, AND neither of them is a troll! The article about NTV was intended to show what fairy tales we are told in Germany. Just maybe, misspelled.
And yes, I am an East German who has my own experiences with Russians and dictatorship…who worked in Russia (Ukraine) for 12 years…
But that’s just by the way…when I tell you what I’ve seen in about 12 years, no one will believe it! And I don’t know who else can and certainly will read everything here.
Experiences of an Ossi, sorry

Posted by: Ossi | Feb 19 2024 16:17 utc | 233

“If Russia can grab Chasiv Yar and a few small villages, the opportunity to roll up pretty big chunks of territory will present itself.
Posted by: Eclavdra | Feb 19 2024 3:02 utc | 143”
———-
That’s the naive video game, keyboard warrior fantasy. I’m not saying they don’t get Chasiv Yar. But to just blithely say it, like no big deal, shows a lack of understanding.
Bakhmut was taken a year ago and they didn’t roll into Chasiv Yar. Heck, they didn’t even take Ivanivsky.
Chasiv Yar is on a ridge, has very serious fortifications, and is not in a salient (not even really on the front yet). It will take serious preperation and execution to take Chasiv Yar. Lots of bombardment from the air (and if close enough artillery), envelopment of the flanks, rotation of units to allow this, etc. Again, not saying it’s impossible. It’s actually a conceivable next step. But it’s a serious big deal and will be another several month slog, like Bakhmut or Avdiivka. Not some Internet typer handwaving..

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 19 2024 16:25 utc | 234

I don’t think either of those countries are crazy enough to send troops against the Russian army.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 19 2024 7:09 utc | 165
If you get any denser you’ll form a black hole. They will send supplies, and maybe some mercs. Interdiction would be a nightmare. Until the government of Ukraine capitulates, Odessa and Lvov can be supplied by the west. It’s quite possible that Ukro/western ‘strategy’ going forward will consist of measures to force Russia to have an Avdeevk-like battle in Odessa.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 16:33 utc | 235

Glide bombs are not a wonder weapon, but just a part of an overall issue for Ukraine, which is the Russian superiority in the air. Just an aspect of air bombardment, which is only one of the uses of aviation. And it’s “superiority”, not US-style air “dominance”.
The obvious Ukrainian counter would be air defense. Both ground-based and fighter aircraft. This is theoretical and easier said than done. It’s one thing to dump a bunch of Cold War armor and artillery and ammunition on the Ukrainians (much of which will be necessarily misused, since they lack training and proficiency). It’s another thing to just waste vast amounts of fighter aircraft (Ukrainians can’t quickly become good at using them), which are way more expensive. And ground-based AD weapons systems from the West are quite good, but very limited in numbers.
Realistically, the Ukros are not going to suddenly get sophisticated AD (ground or air). So they have to try to respond in other ways. Using cheap and small drones for their own ISR and combat air support. Dispersing forces. And just kinda sucking it up. Germans and Japs (and Brits) got bombed a lot also. They just endured it.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 19 2024 16:37 utc | 236

but they will get their ad according to that 15 states airdefense coalition.
the west has to deliver, they cannot quit project ukraine. sunk cost phallacy is trough the roof already.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 19 2024 16:42 utc | 237

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 19 2024 16:42 utc | 236
It really depends on what that 15 states really have and can deliver.
First I was convinced that Ukraine could not possibly win without direct intervention from Nato and I suppose I was right.
Now I believe that even a direct intervention from Nato will be a loosing one, staying conventional.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 19 2024 16:52 utc | 238

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 19 2024 15:48 utc | 226
You seem to not fully understand what’s going on.
Lastochkino was only necessary during the capitulation in Avdeevka, because it allowed to hit retreating troops from the northern flank. Additionally, the routes out of Avdeevka were remote mined, and the withdrawal could be funneled through a specific route, south of Avdeevka and make it a kill zone.
Azov 3rd was supposed to actually counter attack from Lastochkyne and push the Russians east and south. They made a few high PR sorties with a M113 vehicle or something similar, but didn’t achieve much. Latochkyne lost its immediate importance as the AFU withdrawal of whatever it had left capable of moving west had already done so.
Obviously all those low-land villages like Sieverne and Tonenke will be gone pretty soon. The next defense barrier is the narrow river north west of Avdeevka. But any next offensive might not occur past that at all, it could occur in a completely other direction.
Regarding it ‘taking months to get Avdeevka’. It was built up for 10 years, especially underground tunnels connecting the place, underground storages, the bunkers and trenches and minefields. Well, let’s compare to ISrahell fought to full standstill in Gaza, and US spending 9 months against goat herders in Mosul. Avdeevka was the most fortified place on earth.
Certainly trenches are minefields are easier to setup, but after the Tsar’s hunt and breaking through Middle Avdeevka to the western part, there was really nothing anymore which AFU could hold on to.
There are major problems with concrete production near the fronts, which require large amount of water, electricity and sand. Such a massive enterprise near with potentially large amount of dump trucks and water trucks moving in and out of some location close to the front won’t go missed. There won’t be another Avdeevka. Another problem is misappropriation of money, or outright stealing of money allocated to cement production.
Kramatorsk and Slavyansk might have something, but they are probably pre-existing basements of buildings. There was never ‘prewar’ or rather Donbass-ATO timed construction projects.
The Russians will continue poking randomly at lines in various places and force AFU keep moving, and stripping ammunition, fuels and troops from one place to another. At some point they will be in the wrong place in the wrong time, or in other words they simply won’t exist.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 16:53 utc | 239

“they cannot quit project ukraine. sunk cost phallacy is trough the roof already.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 19 2024 16:42 utc | 236”
It will take much more time and pain before this to happen. Despite the “Odessa dreamers”, it’s pretty clear that Russia is not rolling through the country like the Germans in Poland.
Western neoliberal elites need time to get bored of this side project. And they feel much more attached to fighting for globohomo against their “Putin used Carter Page to defeat Hildabeast” fantasies. It can happen. But not right away. Things are/feel different in DC and London and Paris and the like.
I actually think Putin would agree to a neutral Ukraine and frozen boundaries. He has hinted at it a lot, already. He can see what a slog it is to progress. It’s the West (and Ukraine) that is not ready yet. Maybe in 2026. Look how long it took the US to give up on Afghanistan.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 19 2024 16:56 utc | 240

I actually think Putin would agree to a neutral Ukraine and frozen boundaries. —
Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 19 2024 16:56 utc | 239
Who is supposed to guarantee a neutral Ukraine? Promises of the West? He already knows what they’re worth. The minimum target is probably the Dnepr, then NATO will also advance to the Dnepr and the Dnepr will become the 38th parallel in Europe.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 19 2024 17:08 utc | 241

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 19 2024 16:56 utc | 239
Again, why do Russia need to have Odessa immediately? That’s kind of making illusionary goal posts and then saying the side that can’t achieve the said illusionary goal posts suck.
Same as saying US despite having reserve currency and basically unlimited global power for 50 years has been unable to colonize Venus and Mars and unable to establish an outpost on Pluto. A great power should have certainly been able to achieve that.
Odessa will become a backwater, perhaps even given up automatically if/when eventually front moves over the Dnieper river toward Krivoy Rog. But before that happens AFU in Donbass and Lugansk need to be defeated. Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk are under massive attacks, but still no one expects them to fall anytime soon. There seems to be no hurry though, because Russia can defeat any force Nato can throw at it if they want to come to eastern Ukraine. Britain wanted to create a coalition to man the Dnieper river bank and they wanted to mobilize everyone in Britain and suddenly the story died away.
The attrition strategy will win eventually but it’s not for ADHD people.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 17:10 utc | 242

RT: Scott Ritter: Helping Crimea recover from decades of Ukrainian misrule is a tough but necessary challenge
Interesting article on Scott’s visit to Crimea in January.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 19 2024 17:16 utc | 243

228 – Or the Russians got him, for revenge and to “encourage the others”.

Posted by: Waldorf | Feb 19 2024 17:16 utc | 244

Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 19 2024 14:57 utc | 222
Thanks for that update on 2024 #’s, I’d seen the numbers for ~2022, but not any fresh reviews of that since incorporating the additional sell offs (at least the known ones) since then.
Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 19 2024 15:12 utc | 224
We are not remotely at that stage yet.

Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 19 2024 17:20 utc | 245

Wrote

Honzo | Feb 18 2024 17:14 utc | 35
Zelensky’s one and only mistake was to allow himself to be induced to run for president […] His sin is putting his face on all this.


Though I find myself in agreement upon many your comment, at this one I shall object.
For it is true, that, if no one partakes in the deeds of evil, they would not be done.

Posted by: persiflo | Feb 19 2024 17:31 utc | 246

@DunGroanin | Feb 19 2024 14:57 utc | 222
This is why Trump said that the US could lose 100s of billions if Russia makes a peace with Ukraine without US interests at the table.
If Trump is elected this will be his sole focus regarding Ukraine – save US oligarch’s investments. If Russia takes Ukraine to the Dnipr and Odessa port those investments will be worth squat.

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 19 2024 17:34 utc | 247

‼️JUST IN: Zelensky has approved a list of cities and towns that are not of strategic importance to Ukraine. The list is classified. The name of each city and town will be announced as soon as it is lost.
https://twitter.com/OlgaBazova/status/1759551718897938556

From now on, any town will not be of strategic importance.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 17:46 utc | 248

Those class of ships could hear those glorified torpedoes from approx 100-200km away, I’d also guess an outer perimeter with dunking sonars or sensor buoys is being used, or a SSN is sprinting and drifting.
Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2024 14:03 utc | 215

The performance of German diesel subs in exercises with the US Navy seems to speak against that assessment.

Posted by: MAKK | Feb 19 2024 18:06 utc | 249

NBC: US wants to give Ukraine longer-range ATACMS missiles for attacks on
from Anti-Spiegel
February 19, 2024 6:25 p.m
The US began delivering ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in late 2023, but so far only older medium-range missiles have been delivered
The US government wants to provide Kiev with a new version of ATACMS missiles with a longer range for attacks on remote areas of Crimea. This is reported by the television station NBC News, citing sources.
It is noted that the US began delivering Army tactical missile systems known as ATACMS to Ukraine in late 2023, but so far only older medium-range missiles have been delivered. According to a report from NBC News, the US is now leaning toward delivering a longer-range version of the missile that would allow Ukraine to attack remote areas on the Crimean peninsula.
According to the television channel, the prospects for financing arms sales to Ukraine remain uncertain due to opposition from former President Donald Trump and his Republican allies in Congress.
Defense Department officials told NBC News that the U.S. has a limited supply of ATACMS, so Washington is unlikely to send the missiles to Kiev unless it has money to increase its own arsenal.
According to US officials, if Congress decides to increase funding for Ukraine, the US could include longer-range ATACMS systems in one of its next military aid packages. “The US also has ammunition and artillery that it can immediately send to Ukraine if funding is approved,” the TV channel’s sources added.
U.S. officials did not rule out that the U.S. “might ask allies to supply Ukraine with missiles and resupply ATACMS.”
.
https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2024/nbc-usa-wollen-der-ukraine-atacms-raketen-mit-groesserer-reichweite-fuer-angriffe-auf-die-krim-geben/

Posted by: Ossi | Feb 19 2024 18:11 utc | 250

There were/are still civilians in Avdeevka, perhaps 1k. “Russia has come. I feel good.”

Posted by: the pessimist | Feb 19 2024 18:12 utc | 251

by Anonymous | Feb 19 2024 16:56 utc | 239
The West is lagging in time already, really. NATO basically has openly declared the war, as a last resort. No negotiations, until Russia is defeated and Crimea part of NATO. Sending all possible missiles and ammo, as we speak. Also ATACAMS with a long range targeting. All-in.
I am sure that Russia will observe all this at the distance and mind its own business, until exactly when?
This is going to escalate badly for the West, the way it goes.
Not seeking a conflict with Russia, but a war that cannot be fought. Biden gone, with Kamala bringing her black agenda directly, while seconds a low level of a support for Ukrainian cause, dismantles any partisanship in the USA, even if during the current 2 weeks break. After that comes a chaos, that weakens the deep state too. That foggy bottom would be shaking the EU pretty much, as a positioning there are and running almost a third political generation against the wind namely Hungary, Slovakia, some important German Federal politicians, Swedes are not too happy, Finns, I guess, play it as cool, as it goes.
That is the start of a time-frame for China, Russia, Arabs and Iran, to use as a push towards better strategic position and together at once. It is possible to change the World in 6-7 month.
Everything else, ends in a long-term failure and a drag.

Posted by: whirlX | Feb 19 2024 18:16 utc | 252

🪂 Zaporozhye direction.
The Russian Armed Forces are using the tactics of the Avdeevka tactical operation and the enemy garrison at Rabotino is being cut into two parts by our troops.
Moreover, one of the parts of this garrison is literally squeezed onto a narrow strip of territory northwest of the village of Verbovoye.
The Uko-fascists, who mined this area so that we could not transport provisions and ammunition, as well as evacuate the wounded, were forced to avoid being caught by their own mines and maneuver between them.
In addition to dividing the enemy group, our troops are pressing from the southern part of the village of Rabotino, and the enemy is forced to stretch its forces along the entire front line.
Well, the Kiev junta began to pull parts of its reserves from the Kherson direction to Zaporozhye and abandon them in the Orekhov area, fearing a breakthrough of our army in this area.
We continue to advance in the Verbovoye-Rabotino sector.
The fighting is heavy, the artillery cannonade does not stop for a second, and what is especially pleasing is that we now hear more exits from our side than arrivals from the Ukrainian side.
The battle line is dynamic; it is necessary to highlight the situation in the moment, since behind the fog of active hostilities it may no longer be relevant in an hour.

https://t.me/two_majors/19431

Posted by: Down South | Feb 19 2024 18:16 utc | 253

No way will the War Party allow Kiev to negotiate a peace treaty. The War Party wants to fight to the last Ukrainian. Still a few million to go

Posted by: Exile | Feb 19 2024 18:20 utc | 254

The West is lagging in time already, really. NATO basically has openly declared the war, as a last resort. No negotiations, until Russia is defeated and Crimea part of NATO. Sending all possible missiles and ammo, as we speak. Also ATACAMS with a long range targeting. All-in.
Posted by: whirlX | Feb 19 2024 18:16 utc | 251

sadly, thats the way the west wants to hurt russia. a strategic defeat as they say. in reality, they want to kill russians for the simple fact that they defy their fascist agenda.
denmark stating they are going to give all their artillery and munitions, the drone coalition stating they are going to send “thousands of ai swarm drones”, germany preparing for the coming war in 5-8 years, us and the atacms. serbian rockets were found (shame on vucic), and then theres the increasing secondary sanctions enforcement around the world. uae already stated they will have to “restrict” financial transactions to russia because of fear of secondary sanctions.
i am ususally not a pessimist, but i fear for my children.
the west clearly has lost their marbles.
czech minister calls protesting farmers “kremlin sympathizers”. they see a red under their bed i think. completely insane.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 19 2024 18:27 utc | 255

Posted by: ghiwen | Feb 19 2024 12:32 utc | 198
I’m not defending the post you were replying to because it’s not my argument but, on the subject of measure and countermeasure, this is an abstraction of only conditional validity, engineering and technical considerations are the reality of which received wisdom and rules of thumb are merely handy approximations.
As battlefield surveillance leaves fewer and fewer places for anything to hide, their seismoacoustic signature and atmospheric heat blooms will make artillery guns almost unmissable under general use conditions.
Saying that the same goes for rocket artillery launchers doesn’t cut it because it’s far cheaper to range-extend artillery rockets or to strip the cost of the rocket launch platform down to a disposable level, guns cannot compete on the former at sensible pricing and simply cannot do the latter.
There is no cat & mouse argument that can dial out the cost of artillery guns or their inherent technical characteristics. They are cost effective so long as they can survive to fire a certain number of effective shots, otherwise they are not.
The fact that artillery shells costing $70k…$150k are being used says a lot. The fundamental weaknesses of gun artillery are now being tested: high platform cost, limited range of commodity shells, high / very high cost of shells that can even pretend to compete with rockets on range / precision, that are still limited to a relatively modest payload, i.e. inherently limited payload and range-vs-cost potential, very high cost of guidance options due to launch stresses.
Strange that mainstream discussions of artillery almost always manage to gloss right over all this.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 19 2024 18:28 utc | 256

Russia and VVP will never settle for a frozen front in any peace talks…..its way too late for all that Minsk non-sense.
Russia knows full well that any pact like that will never be respected and the Minsk debacles prove that 100%.
Russia needs achievable goals and those goals must be to take and hold Odessa, cut off the Nazis from any seaport just like NATO did to Serbia. Odessa in Russian hands stops the seaflow of ammo and supplies to the Ukrainian NATO state, and creates a front border with Moldova and Romania.
Russia has learned the lessons of Serbia – NATO war 1995-1999 very well, achieve strategic victory !
The NATO operation “Storm” in 1995 was specifically designed to deprive the Serbs of the Adriatic port of Split. Time to return the favor……..

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Feb 19 2024 18:43 utc | 257

@ ossi, §227:
Good points, ossi, which is why I, for one, value your posts.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 19 2024 18:50 utc | 258

Anonymous@234…..FABs make it exponential, everything speeds up going forward.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 19 2024 18:56 utc | 259

Avdeyevka fell without the need for prigozhin or his Wagner group.
Just the Russian army.
It fell faster than Bakhmut. With only half the drama.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 19 2024 0:58 utc | 126
Good point.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 19 2024 18:57 utc | 260

unimperator | Feb 19 2024 17:10 utc | 242
Some time back, Russia/Putin talked about the Ukraine regions having referendums. I assume that will be part of the Kiev surrender/peace treaty agreement.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2024 18:58 utc | 261

The next set of fortified towns, far NW of Avdeevka, namely Chasov Yar, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are apparently under heavy attack with cruise, ballistic missiles, MLRS and drones.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 1:02 utc | 128
Good. These “operational pauses” just give the enemy time to re-arm and re-group.
Better to keep their heads ringing.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 19 2024 18:59 utc | 262

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Feb 19 2024 18:43 utc | 257
i have to agree. nato set the precedent with serbia. and occupies it to this day, refusing to implement the un resolution.
its only fair if russia does the same since this is natos little adventure.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 19 2024 19:02 utc | 263

I have been thinking about Prigozhin and Wagner lately…thinking about what a scumbag Prig was and how unimportant he is in the greater scheme of things. In retrospect, and at fleeting times in the moment, he was the most obvious of traitors. His public tantrums were attributed by some to Russian ‘maskirovka.’ I think this was hopeful but wrong. Just before his “march” on Moscow, his blatantly traitorous public declarations undermining the entire cause of the Russian SMO screamed out like a bad Hollywood script, one can easily imagined was prepared by the idiots on our side, who think that perception is reality, that his pronouncement that Russia was to blame would magically overturn the lived experience of thousands of victims in the Donbass and neutralize their say in the matter. It is amazing how hardly anybody talks about him now. Very much like hardly anybody talks about Gorbachev.
Posted by: Activist Potato | Feb 19 2024 4:02 utc | 148
The idea that Russia, which has been comically bad at propaganda and even basic P.R. since the beginning of this war, would suddenly and seamlessly pull off an amazing next-level deception, beggars belief.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 19 2024 19:04 utc | 264

I don’t get any impression that Ukrainians have lost the will to fight.

They’ve certainly lost the will to die on behalf of their foreign masters.
Sure you aren’t mistaking ‘cocaine fueled psychosis’ with ‘will’?

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 19 2024 19:05 utc | 265

Neither Norway nor Australia, nor any country in Western Europe have some degree of militarism built into their culture, unlike the US.
I got off the boat in 1966 and was overwhelmed by ROTC, the American Legion, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and Miliary Academies for secondary and college instruction, the likes of which I have not seen anywhere else.
I am sure I missed many other contributions to what I think of as American militarism, but it is worth noting that there is a serious and deep strain embedded in the culture, so I say. The Pledge of Allegiance is just another part of it.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Feb 19 2024 9:19 utc | 177
Europeans were the chest-thumping nationalists who gave the world colonialism and imperialism, to name a few.
It was only after they met The Red Army that europeans became pacifist metrosexuals, deciding that this “the world belongs to the strong!” bullshit ain’t near as much fun when you are on the receiving end.
The Americans never had to learn that lesson in quote the same way, being on the other side of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 19 2024 19:09 utc | 266

The idea that Russia, which has been comically bad at propaganda

But transcendentally good at information operations and strategy. Witness warning Erdogan of the coup, or a half dozen other steps which preempted the moves of the West. Some worry the Russians have some kind of quantum interception device, but it is more likely explained by solid methodolgies.
Anyway, hot dog guy definitely flirted with the West, then reneged and this event was most certainly used to smoke out some local quislings. The whole thing embarassed the fuck out of some wannabe Jack Ryan’s that’s fo sho.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Feb 19 2024 19:10 utc | 267

“…In 2021, the law on the sale of land came into force in Ukraine. As the Australian National Review neatly reported, “companies from the United States have used the new legislation to make massive investments in the country.”
Now Cargill, Monsanto and Dupont (investors – Vanguard, Blackrock and Blackstone) own 40% of Ukraine’s arable land. For permission to sell land, Ukraine received a $17 billion loan from the IMF, and offices of all three corporations were opened in Kiev….
Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 19 2024 14:57 utc | 222″
When I lived in Kiev, all three of these companies had offices in Ukraine.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 19 2024 19:32 utc | 268

“czech minister calls protesting farmers “kremlin sympathizers”. they see a red under their bed i think. completely insane.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Feb 19 2024 18:27 utc | 255″
The Czech minister knows it’s bullshit, but the point is to provide a pretext for a crackdown.

Posted by: Feral Finster | Feb 19 2024 19:33 utc | 269

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Front #Summary for 19 Feb 2024 by 20:07⚡️
🔹In #Kherson Direction, without changes, an AFU boats were sunk again during an attempt to land on the left bank.
🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, our forces are heavily fighting for #Rabotino, both sides are digging into the positions. So far it is known that ours in fierce fighting have reached the geographical outskirts of the village from the west, south and southeast. The AFU positions are already being attacked from three sides. Advancement is also recorded near #Verbovoye.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, our units are advancing west of #Staromayorskoye and in the area of #Prechistovka. Our Artillery thwarted AFU attempts to rotate their forward positions.
🔹In #Avdeyevka Direction, our sappers report that the mining in the city is dense, there are many traps. They are not surprised to meet a lot of #NATO weapons. Meanwhile, our forces are attacking #Lastochkino, where the enemy’s presence remains. The AFU’s aim is to gain time to consolidate on the main defensive line. At #Nevelskoye, our troops advanced about 1 more km.
🔹In the #Bakhmut Direction, our army is approaching the outskirts of #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye) with a broad front from #Khromovo to #Chernobylts. The half-encirclement of the AFU in the village looms. And our military has already gained a foothold in its northeastern outskirts. Our Aerospace Forces, artillery and drone pilots continue to very methodically hit any AFU targets in the direction of .Chasov Yar up to pickups.
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, on the #Seversk front, our forces pushed the AFU back about 1 km on the approaches to #Vasyukovka and gained a foothold in the landing. In the #Liman sector, the further advance on #Terny is not easy. In #Kupyansk sector, after the liberation of #Krakhmalnoye and #Tabayevka, there has been no progress for some time. Meanwhile, our artillery is active. The reason that Zelensky is near #Kupyansk today is the high risk of activation of attacks from our army. It is said that there is a high accumulation of our forces.
💥The AFU struck #Makeyevka with MLRS today, damaged an oil depot, there is a wounded man. Three children in #Panteleymonovka and a resident of #Donetsk were injured. Furthermore they tried to attack a civilian facility in #Mariupol by a British kamikaze drone with 7 kg of explosives. It was intercepted and landed. #Ukraine reports that they have shot down two more Russian aircraft. So far it is known that our plane was shot down near #Mariupol. Moreover, according to the first version, by our own air defence. The MoD refrains from commenting which is not a good trend.
🎯Our Forces hit In #Kramatorsk enterprises used by the AFU to create armored parts for military equipment. In one of the hangars, a Bradley IFV was covered. In #Lvov, an enterprise producing drones burned at night. They write that the underground put down their security and set the plant on fire.

https://t.me/sitreports/23220

Posted by: Down South | Feb 19 2024 19:38 utc | 270

Today Judy BYINGTON (RUMOUR MILLS) reported Zelensky being captured by Russian spec.forces on 2/17/24 and transferred to Black Dolphin Prison in Russia….do not know what to think about it…b…..

Posted by: sejmon | Feb 19 2024 19:38 utc | 271

Acco Hengst @ 177

I am sure I missed many other contributions to what I think of as American militarism, but it is worth noting that there is a serious and deep strain embedded in the culture, so I say.

To create the country they had to genocide native Americans and enslave Africans, despite attempts at self reflection and growth, the brief years of reconstruction and the 1950-60s, they never really moved beyond original sin. Witnessing the post 1970s culture wars and the ease with which the culture regressed back to the 19th century I’d say ultimately Americans relish their flaws more more than their virtues. It’s an indictment across the culture I’d rather not make, if we were talking about an individual you would say, he is disturbed, maybe in 20 minutes it will pass and I’ll be more optimistic.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 19 2024 19:44 utc | 272

sejmon @ 271

Today Judy BYINGTON (RUMOUR MILLS) reported Zelensky being captured by Russian spec.forces on 2/17/24 and transferred to Black Dolphin Prison in Russia….do not know what to think about it

His lucky break.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 19 2024 19:54 utc | 273

Finian Cunningham has an article at Strategic Culture Foundation in which he references RF President Putin’s recent interview in Russian-language media.
The link is here:
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/02/19/putin-regrets-not-acting-sooner-in-ukraine-sorry-to-say-but-i-told-you-so-vlad/
Cunningham pats himself on the back for pointing out that the Russian President now admits that he should have “acted sooner” to protect the ethnic Russians in the Donbass area.
However, there is no attempt here to address the issue of the theft of the state reserve currency, the extreme sanctions, the combined military efforts of NATO countries, the state terrorism such as with the blowing up of the NS pipelines, etc., for which the Russian Federation had to, realistically, be prepared for.
Saakashvili’s attack in August 2008 must have revealed the perfidity of the NATO regimes already and the Russian President in 2007 recognized this in his rightly famous Munich speech.
In fact, the political opposition in the Russian Parliament/Duma had been long calling for action from the government. I mean here years and years. Literally. So, nothing new here but it is worth remembering how the SMO of Feb 24 2022 had – in hindsight – such an inevitable quality about it, even given the reluctance of the political leadership of the Russian Federation to go that route.
It’s not particularly compelling IMHO to find fault with a government which views war as a last resort. The contrast with the conduct of the US-led NATO regimes could not be more stark.

Posted by: N Hanrahan | Feb 19 2024 20:00 utc | 274

The performance of German diesel subs in exercises with the US Navy seems to speak against that assessment.
Posted by: MAKK | Feb 19 2024 18:06 utc | 249

Guess you ment the Swedish subs ..
https://youtu.be/L26RZdmQ2nE

Posted by: blueswede | Feb 19 2024 20:06 utc | 275

See this Pet Shop Boys, Go West music link from the start of the 90′, i remember the song well, but seeing it now gives me a whole different perspective:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNBjMRvOB5M
Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 18 2024 22:19 utc | 95
That is quite the globohomo erotic propaganda video!
Not that there is anything wrong with that, I am sure it stirred the loins of many a young gay communist
Posted by: jopalolive | Feb 19 2024 7:19 utc | 166
I never realized that that incredibly effective propaganda piece was a root cause of the SMO. I did wonder at the pictures of VVP riding Baerbareback and shirtless, but didn’t imagine that he was a cultural marxist (the term, at that time, for ‘globohomo’). It implies that the operation won’t end with the surrender of Kiev, but will continue until he takes LA.
Саму

Posted by: Samu | Feb 19 2024 20:06 utc | 276

Today Judy BYINGTON (RUMOUR MILLS) reported Zelensky being captured by Russian spec.forces on 2/17/24 and transferred to Black Dolphin Prison in Russia….do not know what to think about it…b…..
Posted by: sejmon | Feb 19 2024 19:38 utc | 271
Why would Russia bother capturing a puppet like Zelensky?
Russia could easily kill him, but they don’t, because he is more useful working for Ukraine, and keeping a competent leader from taking charge.
If Zelensky were killed, nothing would change, in fact, Ukraine might even be stronger because of it.
This is clearly a silly rumor made by a simpleton for cheap clicks and views.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 19 2024 20:07 utc | 277

I’d like to compare the electricity price of Algeria, Spain, Italy and Germany.
Electricity price for homes:
Algeria: electricity 0.040 USD/kWh, Spain: 0.222 USD/kWh, Germany: 0.393 USD/kWh, Italy: 0.424 USD/kWh.
Electricity price for industry:
Algeria: electricity 0.035 USD/kWh, Spain: 0.151 USD/kWh, Germany: 0.285 USD/kWh, Italy: 0.573 USD/kWh.
How are we supposed to compete? What action is the European Union taking?
The European Union has now agreed on a 13th sanctions package against Russia, and a 14th sanctions package is expected in the coming weeks.
What I am wondering about: Has a goal been defined for the sanctions? What does the exit strategy look like?

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 19 2024 20:07 utc | 278

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 19 2024 20:07 utc | 278
Not shure where you get data from or when.
Actually, in Italy consumer electricity is less than 0,25€ per kWh.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 19 2024 20:14 utc | 279

“I don’t get any impression that Ukrainians have lost the will to fight. ”
Me neither.
It may be the worst is yet to come. Sort of like the Battle of the Bulge
Posted by: Johnny Dollar | Feb 19 2024 16:01 utc | 229
The will to fight depends on many things.
Very few are undeterred by the risk of death. (Adrenalin junkies, fools, fanatics)
Most can be made to fight through manipulation or coercion.
If the veil of manipulation and coercion is removed, the will to fight ends.
With a very small group of unwilling people, coercion leads to resistance and manipulation to laughter.
The following can currently be observed using the example of 3rd Azov:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jSUlzE1PjZA
The approach seems less coordinated, there is chaos.
A lot of video material is being published at ever shorter intervals, which also affects the quality. It seems like panic. However, there are also financial interests at play here (best quality on demand).
There is a lot of editing, the individual scenes are short.
There’s probably not much to be pleased about.
The soldiers joke that they actually applied to be snipers, medics and motarman in order to escape the front line and are now closer than they wanted to be.
In one shot, someone enthuses about the best job in the world.
The Ukrainian good-for-nothings who are in Germany, for example, have the greatest “will to fight”.
They campaign for support (for the burning of their compatriots), collect money for weapons and disrupt social peace in the long term.
They claim that state financial support has no influence on their behaviour.
But they don’t explain why they take the support, because unlike asylum seekers, they are allowed to work.
This lot see themselves as intellectuals, which means they behave like petty bourgeois who haven’t met anyone else who can read.

Posted by: 600w | Feb 19 2024 20:15 utc | 280

Not sure where you get data from or when.
Posted by: Mario | Feb 19 2024 20:14 utc | 279
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Italy/electricity_prices/

Posted by: Passerby | Feb 19 2024 20:29 utc | 281

The death by a thousand needles. The Resistance is multipolar
‘You sink our ship in a small pond with your high tech perfidious drones. Be surprised that some Resistance suddenly by passes your defences in the much bigger ponds.
Or do we have to get to the ‘you sank my battleship!’ Levels ?
Just surrender and cut your loses now. Or else! ‘
It’s done unless the Waste wants to see a Carrier Group wasted.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Feb 19 2024 20:38 utc | 282

Not sure where you get data from or when.
Posted by: Mario | Feb 19 2024 20:14 utc | 279
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Italy/electricity_prices/
Posted by: Passerby | Feb 19 2024 20:29 utc | 281
Data is relative to June 2023. Tariffs are changing at least quarterly or even less.
Actually prices are what I told.

Posted by: Mario | Feb 19 2024 20:41 utc | 283

Data is relative to June 2023. Tariffs are changing at least quarterly or even less.
Actually prices are what I told.
Posted by: Mario | Feb 19 2024 20:41 utc | 283
Energy prices are local, based on the power plants in the area.
In the pacific northwest, where I am, it is very cheap, compared to the rest of the USA because we have hydro power… (Something the leftists also want to destroy).

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 19 2024 20:50 utc | 284

DunGroanin | Feb 19 2024 20:38 utc | 282
I don’t quite understand what you are saying there.
But since you bring up the subject, can you (or anyone else) give me an actual count of Russian warships that have been lost to NATO attacks in the present conflict?

Posted by: robin | Feb 19 2024 20:52 utc | 285

Dima says Russian army HQ has changed the front line definitions. Whereas before there were 5 separate directions, now there are only 3 directions. Kherson and Zaporozhye are connected together, Novomikhalovka/Ugledar are the same, Avdeeva/South Donetsk are connected together, and Kupyansk/Lyman are connected together. This might imply some more coordinated, mutually supporting larger moves.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 20:52 utc | 286

On the reported death of the helicopter thief/daring hijacker – remember he didn’t just betray Russia for money, he was responsible for the death of his two crew-members, “shot while trying to escape”.
” We hope that we will be able to scale up now, said the Head of GUR. We were able to find the right approach to the pilot, move his entire family [out of Russia] unnoticed, and finally create conditions where he was able to move this aircraft with the crew without them knowing what was going on. After they realized where they landed, they tried to run away. Unfortunately, they were killed. It would be better if we could [capture] them alive, but it is what it is.”
Russia certainly has a motive – avenging the dead crew members. I’m not sure I’d blame them.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 19 2024 21:07 utc | 287

UK keeps donating UUVs and FPVs to fukraine to attack Russian ships. To get some traction on game theory application, Russia should give Houthis similar weapons to target Brishit ships in the MENA area. Looks like they have forgotten that they are an island.

Posted by: Jason | Feb 19 2024 21:10 utc | 288

Some Russian commentators close to the Russia’s defence ministry claimed reports about Kuzminov’s killing were planted by Ukraine’s intelligence services to fake the pilot’s death. “Don’t get too excited,” Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-appointed official in southern Ukraine, wrote on Telegram. “They want to create a new biography with a clean slate and a new name for the traitor.”
It’s a wilderness of mirrors…

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 19 2024 21:17 utc | 289

Many good, informative posts here, particularly unimperator at 239 and anon2020. Thanks

Posted by: dadooronron | Feb 19 2024 21:18 utc | 290

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon @ 287
Early on in the SMO IIRC two RF oligarchs, one with his wife and daughter, were killed in Spain. Not the best place to hide, FSB in the Spanish sun, primo gig, must be a reward for good skills.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 19 2024 21:20 utc | 291

Wrong thread really, but the British ship Rubymar targeted by the Houthis has reportedly sunk.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 19 2024 21:26 utc | 292

unimperator @ 242

Britain wanted to create a coalition to man the Dnieper river bank and they wanted to mobilize everyone in Britain and suddenly the story died away.

Sunak looks like he has to buy his suits in the boys department of Brooks Brothers or whatever is the Brit equivalent. Lions led by a miniature pony, I don’t see too many Brits charging behind his battle cry.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 19 2024 21:35 utc | 293

In the pacific northwest, where I am, it is very cheap, compared to the rest of the USA because we have hydro power… (Something the leftists also want to destroy).
Posted by: UWDude | Feb 19 2024 20:50 utc | 284
8 cents/Kilowatt hour USD, from the Roosevelt/Columbia River Treaty Dams, plus or minus. How Europe is going to survive and thrive when energy is the backbone of an economy, beggars the imagination.
And FWIW, City Armchair Environmentalists have NO CLUE WHATSOEVER about the hundreds of miles of beautiful, productive valleys that were drowned so they could have cheap electric power.
p.s. Generation and Transmission costs are about half of the 8 cents, the rest is taxes and jobs for friends of the system.

Posted by: kupkee | Feb 19 2024 21:35 utc | 294

Dima offers some surprising opinions/claims ! That Zelensky is polling field commanders as to how long they can continue fighting in holding Russia back. This is interpreted as preparation for surrender. There is a claim that Ukr. army is abandoning Kupiansk. I guess the question is, are they actually on the run from the front? Has panic set in?

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 19 2024 21:35 utc | 295

so they could have cheap electric power.
Posted by: kupkee | Feb 19 2024 21:35 utc | 294
And flood regulation.
And water to irrigate what was a desert.
And absolutely no pollution whatsoever.
Dams are the best power source there is, bar none.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 19 2024 21:39 utc | 296

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 19 2024 21:26 utc | 292
Sorry replying- should be other thread but I suspect there is some Russian tit for tat. Anyway the story seems true.
Apparently the crew have abandoned the ship and it was taking in water. So yep sunk

Posted by: watcher | Feb 19 2024 21:47 utc | 297

Posted by: Ossi | Feb 19 2024 16:17 utc | 233
Just curious: what was the experiences of the members of your family during WW2?

Posted by: Naive | Feb 19 2024 21:47 utc | 298

@ Feral Finster, §269:
There´s no way Pavel and Fiala would win an election in Czecho today.
Like Macron in France and Scholz in Germany, they´re American NATO puppets, i.e. governors of occupied territories.

Posted by: John Marks | Feb 19 2024 21:48 utc | 299

This should be worrysome:
https://www.rt.com/russia/592680-ukraine-us-chemical-weapons/
Ukraine has used US-made chemical weapons – Russia
Moscow claims that Washington and Kiev have violated the articles of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
Washington and Kiev have violated articles of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) as Ukrainian forces have used illegal munitions on the battlefield, Russian Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov has claimed.
The head of Russia’s Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Protection Forces provided several examples of Kiev’s alleged use of banned chemical weapons and non-lethal chemical agents that he said were obtained from the US.

There has been no response from the OPCW despite all of this evidence being presented to the organization four months ago, the general said, accusing it of being run by Washington as a tool to target its political opponents.
In November, Russia lost its seat on the OPCW Executive Council after failing to get enough votes from other members of the organization. Kirillov said Moscow was effectively “pushed out” of its seat and was replaced by Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, who he claimed were pursuing an obvious anti-Russia policy.
Appologies if this has been posted before.

Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | Feb 19 2024 21:48 utc | 300