William Gruff | Feb 18 2024 22:40 utc | 96
*** Like a society of heroin addicts living in their dreams they let everything of beauty and value in the Ukraine turn to shit while they imagined how wonderful their lives could be if they were born into an American soap opera like Dallas or Baywatch. They absolutely loved Dallas… doubtless that is what they imagined typical life in capitalist society was like and so felt cheated and robbed by the Communists… delusional fools.***
The dumb bastards should have watched Hollywood movies rather more closely — especially the obsessively numerous car-chases. What happens? — the top characters amusingly crash though lots of the property of (usually) much poorer people leaving it and often its owners in ruins … about which nobody gives a damn.

Posted by: Cynic | Feb 18 2024 23:13 utc | 103

Big game changer!
Dima said AFU officers from outside Avdeevka were communicating with Russian officers telling them not to kill the surrounded AFU soldiers abandoned in Avdeevka. Apparently some dealings have been made that led to some surrenders.
This paves the way for potentially more communication anywhere in the front. That is equivalent to small mutinies popping up here and there. Kiev regime would of course like everyone to die.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 18 2024 23:20 utc | 105

Ecuador as a state will loose even more, but USA will help getting more loans. Such are the pleasures of gaining favor of the “leader of the free world”.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 18 2024 23:15 utc | 104
I believe Ecuador changed its mind, and will continue to sell bananas to Russia.

Posted by: UWDude | Feb 18 2024 23:33 utc | 107

unimperator@105….it’s called professional courtesy among the ranks, regardless of side, soldiers are soldiers at the end of the day.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 18 2024 23:46 utc | 109

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 18 2024 21:59 utc | 91
Which is why the Ukrainians are already holding an internal enquiry about the Third Brigades failure to achieve its designated combat mission of acting as a barrier force. The made up statistics (accurate BDA without possession of the battlefield is just a guessing game), are just there to create a palatable narrative for those who are devoid of critical thinking skills, or disinterested in challenging the official ‘story’. How did the Russians lose so many men, when the Ukrainian defenders and their reinforcements were more interested in retreating or surrendering, why so few armoured vehicle losses compared to infantry, and why the Russian force density, to enable such casualty generation, to take largely undefended territory. These are the same people, who disseminate this garbage, who shut the world down for a virus outbreak that killed very few without co-morbidities and claimed postal voting on a massive scale allowed a genuine reflection of US public opinion.
Expect to see these numbers constantly repeated in every media, until it becomes a ‘fact’ which is then repeated to serve as justification for the whole sordid enterprise in the forthcoming CYA manoeuvres, when Ukraine goes to hell in a hand basket. Interestingly, using the projection filter deployed, proof that in the last few days Ukraine lost over a thousand KIA in Avdeevka alone.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 18 2024 23:54 utc | 111

unimperator@105….it’s called professional courtesy among the ranks, regardless of side, soldiers are soldiers at the end of the day.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Feb 18 2024 23:46 utc | 109
Yes, because mass surrenders are just a professional courtesy. “Oh, I’m sorry are we in your way. Please let us lay down our arms, and you can take the territory we’re trying to defend.”

Posted by: James M. | Feb 19 2024 0:09 utc | 113

Anyway, some speculation here about why Russia took Avdiivka faster than expected. The short answer is: Russia is bigger, stronger, and better than Ukraine. US and Western aid delayed the inevitable a little bit, but only a little.
Once Moscow got serious about this SMO – ramping up industrial capacity, recruiting more soldiers – the outcome was all but assured.
I suspect any aid Congress passes, if it ever does, will come far too late. Six more months and Odessa is in play. Zelensky should have taken the deal when he had the chance. Now the only decision he’ll have to make is whether to flee to Italy or the US.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 19 2024 0:17 utc | 115

I suspect any aid Congress passes, if it ever does, will come far too late. Six more months and Odessa is in play. Zelensky should have taken the deal when he had the chance. Now the only decision he’ll have to make is whether to flee to Italy or the US.
Posted by: James M. | Feb 19 2024 0:17 utc | 115

Scott Ritter and Mike Mihajlovic concluded the aid money from either EU or USA makes diddly squat difference for the soldier on the front.
Simply because the aid money will be distributed into contracts for purchasing weapons, at that point when the contract is made, maybe a manufacturer in the US will begin planning a new production line, they hire new people to make them, etc. Everything is new production. Scott said nothing is going to happen before September, anyway.
The other thing you need is trained soldiers, something which either Nato or Ukraine doesn’t have. A week is nothing, a month is something but even that not much. So send week trained mobilized to hold a trench or make another attack on any position better than a pile of sandbags and watch them die in droves.
But what seems to be the most relevant issue here is actually the FPV drones. Supposedly some new methods of detecting FPV drone operators have been created, and there supposedly are some sort of dedicated drone operator hunters in service whose only job is to find enemy drone operators. After the FPV drones are few and sporadic, one of the major obstacles for any arrow offensive is removed.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 0:25 utc | 117

Nah he’s just making excuses for Russian incompetence.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/102123

Posted by: Surferket | Feb 19 2024 0:30 utc | 119

Posted by: James M. | Feb 19 2024 0:09 utc | 113
The act of surrendering IS a mutually beneficial professional courtesy extended to combatants who judge further resistance to be pointless, but one that needs to be coordinated to reduce mistakes or misinterpretations. Seems the Ukrainians are increasingly voting with their feet and ignored the festung Avdeevka orders.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 18 2024 23:27 utc | 106
As were many such structures in WW2, Cologne Cathedral’s walls, for example, are pockmarked but the exterior structure remarkably untouched, and Durham Cathedral claims a fortuitous fog bank shielded them from German bombers.

Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2024 0:39 utc | 121

The act of surrendering IS a mutually beneficial professional courtesy extended to combatants who judge further resistance to be pointless, but one that needs to be coordinated to reduce mistakes or misinterpretations. Seems the Ukrainians are increasingly voting with their feet and ignored the festung Avdeevka orders.
Posted by: unimperator | Feb 18 2024 23:27 utc | 106
Oh, I know that it is. But sean the mini leprechaun was dismissing outright that the mass surrenders of Ukrainian troops could become a trend. A few surrenders of retreating troops, that’s fine, but when whole brigades are encircled and give up rather than fight, speaks to something larger.
How’d they allow themselves to be encircled anyway? The best of the best of the UAF, routed. There’s a morale problem in the Ukrainian Army, and it’s only going to get worse. I expect to see more retreats, I mean orderly withdrawals, and mass surrenders, I mean professional courtesies, by the UAF in the not so distant future.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 19 2024 0:47 utc | 123

Just wait until the Ukrainian refugees in Western Europe and North America turn. And they will turn, of that there’s no doubt. Have you ever seen how angry a person gets when he or she feels deceived and manipulated, has been abandoned and impoverished, and has had his or her home burned to the ground for the benefit of an alien society with which he or she hasn’t a single historical, cultural, familial, or linguistic bond? That’s a burning grievance that doesn’t go away – ever. These unpredictable time bombs in the form of human beings are very well distributed in very vulnerable places throughout the European Union, the Retard Republic, and the Ukrainian Nazi protection colony otherwise known as Canada. What is it that the Americans call what’s coming? Blowback? Indeed.

Posted by: Matthew | Feb 19 2024 0:51 utc | 125

Milites | Feb 19 2024 0:39 utc | 121
*** Durham Cathedral claims a fortuitous fog bank shielded them from German bombers.***
But if I remember correctly, in the 1980s and with
a very politically correct / wokist bishop,
it did get hit by lightning.

Posted by: Cynic | Feb 19 2024 1:01 utc | 127

I honestly thought they would adopt this strategy early in 23, and that all the talk about counter offensives was just strategic deception. Oh, well.”
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 18 2024 16:45 utc | 26
Astute analysis-the only thing I ponder is won’t Russia go after Odessa before they marcheed on Kiev?
Posted by: canuck | Feb 18 2024 21:12 utc | 80
I doubt it. It’s possible that the AFU will weaken the defenses of Odessa and Kherson enough in trying to shore up other fronts that it could be done, but it is a very high-risk operation under the best of circumstances, and there’s no motivation for the Russians to take risks.
The closest possibility would be to retake Kherson, which might result in the evacuation or even surrender of Odessa. Russia does not want to have Odessa become a Bakhmut or Avdeevka, so if they can isolate it, they are more likely to leave it alone until after the fall of the Ukrainian state anyway. The problem here is that Odessa cannot be fully isolated, as it borders Romania. All in all, it makes much more sense to destroy the Ukrainian state elsewhere. The Russians will probably not attack Odessa directly unless somebody declares it the capital of Ukraine.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 1:19 utc | 129

Peter AU @ 97
Used to work like that, that was then this is now.
Many folks in all western countries are waking up and they’re getting pissed OFF and most will sit in a jail cell rather then do the establishments bidding. Ain’t gonna happen!
In a recent Palestine thread we read in a link that more and more reserves in the IOF are refusing to go back “to work”.
Fool me once…..

Posted by: bisfugged | Feb 19 2024 1:40 utc | 131

There may be niches for conventional artillery for some time but it has been made obsolete with the emergence of small drone technology.
Small drones, precision glide bombs, missiles, ISR.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2024 22:09 utc | 93
Effective counter-battery fire is the main thing making conventional artillery obsolete. Passive acquisition of enemy firing positions when they make a shot coupled with a very short response cycle. Small drones are a useful method of the short response cycle, but if an enemy is weak in counter-battery operations, they are very inefficient because of their tiny charges and a variety of other vulnerabilities that are beginning to show.
I suspect that disposable heavy-weight artillery platforms may be a coming innovation. The US is already trying to field artillery/glide bomb combinations, but this doesn’t resolve the counter-battery problem. If the launch platform is simple and cheap and can deliver a massive strike, let the enemy blow it up after it has done its job. Move the crew to a great distance before firing. A simple enough launch platform could be hauled into position under cover, and left for remote firing. Even if it was hit after launching, it’s very likely that it could be easily returned to service. Imagine a hundred such platforms able to launch FAB 500 or FAB 1500 in a single sector of the line. With the right launch system, this whole operation could be cheaper than a single SU25, and, as a whole, much harder to destroy.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 1:49 utc | 133

Just want to say that Russia could have easily done it this way (a saturation attack combined with deep insertions) to all of Ukraine (all cities and border points) on day one. When it was clear they actually attacked (which I didn’t think they would since 1. there had been eight very long years of almost nothing despite all the fraudulent western claims, and 2. the SMO used a relatively small force in a very limited area ie. not an occupation or full war, which to me was unexpected) then that is what I thought they would do and why I thought it would be over in a few days (so I was doubly wrong :D).
I guess one could say I didn’t expect or find it in any way likely that Russia would choose to do “a Georgia” for a second time.
As for the exact reasons why Russia chose as they did (and still do) there are a lot of good suggestions that seem overwhelmingly likely to be true and which I wholeheartedly agree with and support but still we don’t truly know; we don’t know the precise considerations and the relative weights given to them.
It would be interesting to know.
· ·
Somewhat related (and only apparent a few months later) is that on the opposing side the entire western and ex-Ukrainian nazi military strategic and tactical approaches were self-conflicting and self-destructive from the start. They probably thought they were covering all bases/preparing all options but instead they created a mess of counteracting or mutually exclusive approaches. Maybe someone will go into detail about that and write books about it in ten or twenty years time (certainly not me).
NATO doctrine versus practical experience versus Soviet/Russian doctrine was just the icing on the cake on top of all such more fundamental problems.
· · · · · · · · · · ·
Peter AU1 re: US directed energy weapons.
It could depend on whether the “Blue Fire” stuff I’ve mentioned in the past is correct or not and whether they continued with it. I would say yes to both but that still doesn’t mean it exists at scale or is efficient and/or practical enough.
Directed energy weapons take a lot of juice, for me it’s the missing piece concerning Blue Fire; where in Area 51 and Groom Lake etc. area did they get the energy from? A military nuclear reactor? (A submarine or aircraft carrier one somewhere deep below ground?). I haven’t seen anyone talk about or consider the topic.
Also want to add that I think the cat got out of the bag a long time ago and that many countries have the same capabilities now. If any of it is true that is (if others and me can speculate along these lines then most governments can too, and they can take if further than speculation. A significant part of the difficulty of doing something is knowing whether it can be done at all).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Feb 19 2024 1:54 utc | 135

Reply to 129
Why can’t Russia simply cut Odessa off by linking up with Transnistria? As long as Ukraine can’t get to it, I wonder if that solves the problem. And maybe somebody ambitious enough would want to make it independent of Ukraine and Russia, like a Black Sea Singapore.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 19 2024 1:59 utc | 137

The danger is that Russian forces get overextended as they pursue the Ukrainians from Adveevka.

Posted by: Student of History | Feb 19 2024 2:10 utc | 139

@Student of History 139
That is not as big a concern as it might have been since the Ukranazis pretty much threw away their mobile attack ability in Ye Olde Greate Springe Counteroffensive.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Feb 19 2024 2:45 utc | 141

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 18 2024 20:28 utc | 75
Great analysis! How far do you think Russia has to push past Avdiivka before they can roll up chunks of territory?
It looks to be like 4 or 5 villages/towns need to be captured, all in the vulnerable lowlands?
The industrialized towns that Ukraine has been using as anchor points thin out after that. The next strong defensive line is another 30km or so to the west. I’d guess that’d be plenty of room for the Russian Army to maneuver.
There is a similar situation west of Bakhmut. If Russia can grab Chasiv Yar and a few small villages, the opportunity to roll up pretty big chunks of territory will present itself.

Posted by: Eclavdra | Feb 19 2024 3:02 utc | 143

This is the 3 Brigade version of what happened in Avdeevka yesterday, in their own press release:

Posted by: Paul from Norway | Feb 18 2024 21:59 utc | 91
Wow! One can say anything, can’t one?
My thought is that this hyper-propaganda is a reflex at this point, and not a viable attempt to shore up opinion for a new and serious effort. The defeat must be made to appear orderly and utterly explainable due to forces that have nothing to do with bad planning on the Western side, or superiority of Russian doctrine, but everything to do with a weakness in resolve of political opponents of the current media songwriters.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Feb 19 2024 3:31 utc | 145

@ Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2024 23:06 utc | 100
Faster than you would think.

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Feb 19 2024 3:48 utc | 147

Don’t you find it strange?
On the eve of the ukraine/nato debacle unfolding in avdeevka, navalny mysteriously dies in a russian prison.
Your thoughts please……

Posted by: HERMIUS | Feb 19 2024 4:22 utc | 149

they are very inefficient because of their tiny charges
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 1:49 utc | 133
Just a mater of scaling. anti personnel, anti armour ect. Large buildings, substantial bunkers there is missiles and glide bombs
Multiple launch rocket systems will likely be around for a while. Withe some form of guidance, individual missiles can strike individual targets in a single salvo. With longer range, more time to scoot before the return fire comes in – as in flight time for return fire.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2024 4:41 utc | 151

I doubt it. It’s possible that the AFU will weaken the defenses of Odessa and Kherson enough in trying to shore up other fronts that it could be done, but it is a very high-risk operation under the best of circumstances, and there’s no motivation for the Russians to take risks.
The closest possibility would be to retake Kherson, which might result in the evacuation or even surrender of Odessa. Russia does not want to have Odessa become a Bakhmut or Avdeevka, so if they can isolate it, they are more likely to leave it alone until after the fall of the Ukrainian state anyway. The problem here is that Odessa cannot be fully isolated, as it borders Romania. All in all, it makes much more sense to destroy the Ukrainian state elsewhere. The Russians will probably not attack Odessa directly unless somebody declares it the capital of Ukraine.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 1:19 utc | 129

If you assume Russian army strategy is guided based on mathematical odds, force multipliers etc. formulated by educated people in the GS (also what Martyanov says, which is probably true). Then, considering what is now occurring over several fronts, the cost opportunity of trying to land to Kherson is probably greater than the benefits. That doesn’t exclude small scale commando raids across the Dnieper, as have already evidently been taking place. Recently a Nato ammunition train was also blown up in Vinnytsa destroying 60 tons of rockets and artillery shells.
Rather, Russia has built several large forces in different places of the front. Those forces can keep making advances-of-opportunity in different areas – when they encounter serious resistance, they hunker down and begin positional artillery warfare. Meanwhile, in another place of the front they make another advance-of-opportunity, etc. This forces AFU to guess where the real attack might come, and forces them to move stuff, fuel, ammunition, and troops from one place to another. That is all a strain.
Eventually something will break.
So Kherson isn’t really needed at all at this point when there’s a possibility to collapse the entire front line in Donbass, through a move in Zaporozhye, or the Lugansk front in a move in Kupyansk. Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa will all come in the aftermath of any serious collapse anyway. Just .002.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 4:59 utc | 153

Posted by: Eclavdra | Feb 19 2024 3:02 utc | 143
From what I understand, the major challenge will be to penetrate the line of river and reservoirs that the villages anchor. If the Ukrainians can’t bring any AD to bear on the area, the Russians will probably be able to advance very quickly. After that line, a lot of options develop for the Russian side, as quite a few of the anchor points of the current Ukrainian front line on either side of Avdeevka are up in the air and their supply lines are in peril. I think that now that retreating is an option, quite a few of the hardpoints that are threatened with outflanking will be abandoned. Of course, that would be the smart thing, but it’s not as smart as it might have been because they will be trading hardened defense for whatever they can make in a few days.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 5:08 utc | 155

I like this idea: Odessa becomes an “international city”. And the neutral Russian-friendly Ukraine of the future would have access to the Black sea at the International Odessa.
Posted by: Alchemist | Feb 19 2024 4:49 utc | 152
What part of this bears any relationship to reality? The chances of there being a Ukraine of the future are essentially nil, and if there was any kind of Ukraine at all, there is no way that Russia would not take full control of Odessa and annex the oblast- and Kherson as well.
I am sure that the Russian government will be happy to ship grain from the area now known as Ukraine to the rest of the world via its port at Odessa. What possible reason could there be to put that in the hands of someone else?

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 5:14 utc | 157

Just a mater of scaling. anti personnel, anti armour ect. Large buildings, substantial bunkers there is missiles and glide bombs
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 19 2024 4:41 utc | 151
It’s not ‘just a matter of scaling.’ Every different scale brings with it its own set of problems that must be solved. Larger drones are more visible, more audible, have a large radar cross section, require more power, are more expensive to build, and all these factors make them more vulnerable and reduce their loiter time. No doubt there is a sweet spot of all these intersecting variables somewhere, and no doubt pretty much everyone in the world is trying to figure out where they are, but until they see combat, the balance of any particular design cannot be fully predicted, because enemy countermeasures cannot be fully predicted. One development that could be very effective is high-gain audio sensors mounted on helmets, that would detect and find the direction, vector and speed of sounds matching threat profiles. This would enable a variety of man- or vehicle-portable countermeasures. Passive detection is a very cost-effective system for low-density warfare. Plus, the helmets with bunny ears will be cute.

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 5:22 utc | 159

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 18 2024 23:20 utc | 105
Oh no, wait, how do we suss this out thru our boomer Nazi lens now ?
Help me barflys.
Is this good or bad that possible Nazis on the ground won’t just be killed off because propaganda has convinced us they are inhuman ?
Or are the bosses in Kiev who are commanded by a jew, are they they Nazis ? If they are then logic dictates nothing else matters but Nazis not getting their way.
Oh man, so much to decipher and figure out. I think I’ll just go rewatch some Shawshank redemption and reread Anne Frank until my firmware gets updated.
In the meantime I’m sure Russia will actually, no sarcasm intended here, treat the prisoners of war better than Ukraine treats Russians who surrender. And in a world where most Whites are more concerned about other races than themselves, that makes me happy.
So that makes the west Nazis ? Even though the west fought and destroyed the Nazis ?
Wow man, what a crazy confusing world we live in, huh ?!

Posted by: ryanggg | Feb 19 2024 5:56 utc | 161

Posted by: ryanggg | Feb 19 2024 5:56 utc | 161
The only point was there is communication between officers that bypasses Nato or the nazi joo in Kiev. And when it comes to the west fighting nazism? Seems they have acted mostly to nurture it, see how they applauded the SS man in the Canadian parliament, you know, the same guy who murdered a lot of those wrong ethnicity or religious types back in mother Lwow.
Ukraine is still largely a nazi terrorist state. They drop grenades on civilians.
https://twitter.com/AlternatNews/status/1759330296095236173
Even Arestovich said their ATO operation in the Donbass was completely illegal under any international law, since it involved using tanks, planes and artillery demolishing towns even before the Donbass resistance was formed. And every single participant in the ATO operation are criminals (albeit they are all probably gone by now). You know what that means? Russia is correct all along in responsibility-to-protect in Donbass. Otherwise, Donetsk and Lugansk would look completely like Gaza now with a million dead.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 19 2024 6:08 utc | 163

Look at a map. Odessa oblast abuts Moldova and Romania, both of which are currently hostile to Russia.
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 4:59 utc | 154
I don’t think either of those countries are crazy enough to send troops against the Russian army.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 19 2024 7:09 utc | 165

Posted by: Milites | Feb 19 2024 0:39 utc | 121
The whole cities were untouched in WWII: Cracow, Prague.

Posted by: RB | Feb 19 2024 7:21 utc | 167

I don’t think either of those countries are crazy enough to send troops against the Russian army.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Feb 19 2024 7:09 utc | 165
Molodova is nothing, but Romania is in NATO. No need to give an excuse for Article V. So far, Russia’s been pretty good at avoiding that kind of escalation.

Posted by: James M. | Feb 19 2024 8:34 utc | 169

Avdeyevka fell as all here and in many in other places expected, somewhat sooner than most of us expected.
There is no indication of a change in Russian objectives: de-Nazification and demilitarization, so one should expect no dramatic moves. There is certainly a morale loss with the Ukies, not fixable one would think. The Russians will be relentless in grinding their way West.
The Western leadership is still patting itself on the back for ‘defending Ukraine,’ their MSM aiding and abetting. Ukraine signing security agreements to come to the aid of France and the UK when attacked by Russia should be scored as comedy, something that Zelensky can claim to be in his experience set.
Germany’s economic decline might become the canary in the coal mine of Western ‘confidence.’ The US Democratic Convention will likely pull a rabbit out of a hat to defeat Trump or Kennedy. The US Congress might still throw Billions at Z, give it another month or so. I am glad the Russians are being so ‘Russian.’ Once wound up, they do not slow down and Putin stands out as an incredibly smart and competent leader.
‘And the grind goes on’ paraphrasing some sixties pop tune.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Feb 19 2024 8:39 utc | 171

The armchair side of the bar has exceeded itself in today’s thread. Best ever? Kudos.
I cannot keep up with all the detail, but for a bunch of barflies you guys are doing great. It does look as if we are experiencing a higher rate of change in the battlefield, so updates are great.
The politicians should be in for a rude awakening and I am not seeing anything on the horizon that would give them a cold shower. The populace is complaining, mostly about the Genocide in Gaza, but for the rest of it, I am not noticing anything worthwhile.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Feb 19 2024 8:48 utc | 173

The Ukraine today is a model of what the US and EU would be like without the wealth they rape from the rest of the world. That is where Taiwan is going to be when mainland China surpasses them in chip fab over the next couple years because the Taiwanese have the same stupid turbo-delusional fantasies about western life that the Ukrainians have.
Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 18 2024 22:40 utc | 96
————————————————————-
You are inviting a serious cultural anthropology discussion for which I am ill prepared at the moment. The theme would be on homogeneity and uniformity. The Japanese have worked that out pretty well, Taiwan following.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Feb 19 2024 9:03 utc | 175

Paul from Norway | Feb 18 2024 22:19 utc | 95 “new type of psycho-informational weapon.”
————-
“Why of course the people don’t want war.
Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders.
Hardly new. As Goering says, it works every time.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2024 22:40 utc | 97
———————————————————–
Neither Norway nor Australia, nor any country in Western Europe have some degree of militarism built into their culture, unlike the US.
I got off the boat in 1966 and was overwhelmed by ROTC, the American Legion, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and Miliary Academies for secondary and college instruction, the likes of which I have not seen anywhere else.
I am sure I missed many other contributions to what I think of as American militarism, but it is worth noting that there is a serious and deep strain embedded in the culture, so I say. The Pledge of Allegiance is just another part of it.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Feb 19 2024 9:19 utc | 177

The British marine drones are a pest. What to do?
Perhaps the easiest way to solve the problem is give a few of these “Sea-Doo” marine drones to the Houthis.
If the Houthis use these marine drones against US Navy warships, sooner or later the US will come up with effective countermeasures. And when the US has working countermeasures against these marine drones, you just copy them.
Posted by: Passerby | Feb 18 2024 18:41 utc | 53

Except, the US countermeasures will come in 3-5 years late, several billion US$ over-budget, and only work on Tuesdays under tightly constrained laboratory conditions.
The Russian nationalized-MIC, combined with their high output of STEM-graduates, seems the better bet at rapidly developing effective countermeasures.
The US has lost the ability to engineer much beyond web-sites, and shady financial instruments.

Posted by: retroflecks | Feb 19 2024 9:30 utc | 179

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 18 2024 22:40 utc | 97
it is the leaders of the country [nation state] who determine the policy.
the [governed masses] people can always be brought to the bidding of the [nation state] leaders.
<--Bring[ing] the [governed] people to the bidding of the leaders is one of the things the Oligarchs like about the nation state system. Each state can be considered a cell (in a 16 by 16 matrix of nation states)=256 nation states. Within each cell (nation) the culture system, the religious systems, the education systems, the defense of outer border systems, the protection of the political system from those who are the governed, the propaganda system, and the like can be tailored to suit the needs of those lead each particular nation state. Only those who agree to lead according to the whims of the multinational corporations and in accord to the wishes of oligarchs that own these corporations are allowed to lead the nation state. The privilege to lead is given by the Oligarchs and their corporations, not the voters, nor those who are the governed. Furthermore, leadership is conditional; if leaders fail to do as the corporations and oligarchs demand, they will be replaced. Once again, without direct citizen oversight of the activities of those who lead the nation state the citizens are but slaves blindly following orders. Because there are no external, independent systems that can audit and enforce standards of morality and standards of expected performance against those who lead a nation state, those who control the nation state, can do pretty much what they please and take pretty much what they want. For that reason the 2nd government (Audit Government) is needed to govern those who govern the masses. Additionally, humanity is like air, earth and sea, its a global resource that the nation states should not be allowed to use up, destroy, taint or abuse. Each human is born with a set of un-alienable human rights the second government would help to enforce those human rights against infringements by the traditional sitting government. The goal of the nation state system must be changed from serving the few to a nation state system that serves the masses. Every nation should be contributing to the welfare of every living human being. The most important purpose of the nation state system should be to maintain the quality of human life at its highest possible level.

Posted by: snake | Feb 19 2024 9:55 utc | 181

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 18 2024 18:57 utc | 56
That sounds reasonable as the mechanism behind the lack of enthusiasm of the major investor. Although large destruction of materiel in a short period of time may sound like more business for MIC, it may actually eats into current profits when service, maintenance and insurance clauses increase costs, and into future profits when the reputation of your product suffers too much in the battlefield. It may also be that the kind of materiel being destroyed has lower margins to begin with.
The other factor to take into account is that a lot of the investment does not go into the purchasing of materiel for the battlefield from which MIC may profit, but rather into the civil admin and military salaries of our proxy. Paying for ukrop politicians and government beaurocrats and technicians, pensions, police, doctors, teachers, generals, colonels, down to soldiers, has no profit margin at all for any of our particular investor, it’s all expenses and debt.
The fact that the major investor decided to go on vacation at a critical time of losses and change of military factions for the ukrop side fits the description of signals of the start of a collapse: delayed reaction times.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Feb 19 2024 10:04 utc | 183

… I suspect that disposable heavy-weight artillery platforms may be a coming innovation. …
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 1:49 utc | 133
Artillery rockets fired from low cost launch vehicles, such as standard chassis adapted to the purpose or even rocket packs adapted to be abandoned, driven away from, and then remotely fired via a comms link, are the closest obvious thing. The key is that solid rockets are cheap, disposable, easy to produce from commodity materials, and can substitute, on an almost completely like-for-like basis, for artillery cannons.
There are practical size limits, for instance a FAB-250 and with a sufficient booster for long range flight would be huge. Tornado-S rockets, which carry 250kg warheads, are all approximately 2000kg launch weight, which is no joke but, in principle, could be carried singly in a launch tube bolted into the back of a standard military logistics truck. 500…1000kg warheads would be ridiculous yet are practical for jet bombers.
For warheads closer to cannon artillery (say 25 … 100kg) it’s a different story. Rockets carrying this sort of warhead would be easy enough to handle and adapt to different launch platforms.
I think that gliding warheads are also relevant here (which is why I don’t discount GLSDB as rubbish) because it’s a very sensible way to trade speed for range rather than trying to increase range by using ever bigger rockets, the weight of which can then become an operational hindrance itself.
These UMPC glide kits have proven to be excellent but if the AD risk were to increase sufficiently they would cease to be cost effective overnight. Equivalent calculations apply to artillery cannons but they are cheaper and more numerous than jets so the cut off is more gradual.
Like glide kits delivered by jet bomber, cannon artillery is only cost effective so long as the cannon can be operated safely enough to get a certain number of effective shots out of it. Otherwise it is not and artillery rockets, though more expensive on a per-shell basis, would be better value given the low cost of the launch platform.
It is also much easier and cheaper to integrate electro-mechanical / electro-optical guidance and aerodynamic elements into rocket payloads than into artillery shells due to the relatively modest acceleration force of rockets.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 19 2024 10:31 utc | 185

…
On a different note, Adveevka fell sooner and more suddenly than I expected. I wonder what the cause was? …
Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Feb 18 2024 14:42 utc | 3
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A whole lot of things added up since ~Oct/Nov when RUAF renewed ops in this area.
As for the slowly and then all at once, good planning and the ability to capitalize when the time was right. TIMING. After getting a foot hold breach in both south and north, there was no better timing to go all in than ~week where local moral would be about as bad as it was ever going to get.
– Political and military infighting, zel,zal,ski,etc
– Political infighting comes to head with change of command, and not just one person, but many which even in the best of times is going to cause of a week or two of turbulence and comms breakdowns.
– On going rotation problems in location for several units + increasing sense locally of being surrounded.
– Delay in any US money, and growing hesitancy among some others in similar regard.
– Head clown out of country.
Remember that 2’ish day period where we weren’t getting much detail in updates from ru side and only some generic ones from ua side expanding the gray areas massively. My guess is that was when the unauthorized pull backs started, along with no doubt some of the calls to Volga. At that point it was game over, and quietly no doubt orders were given to bail (which was happening regardless), they delayed saying it publicly for days because zel’s trip and because you never announce stuff like that till you’re done or mostly done. The rest seems just the long forecasted blame game and finger pointing that would ensure after it’s fall.
In the end Avd had a very hard outer shell and far less so interior, thus once that shell was cracked in a few places (at significant cost in time and labor), it was cooked.
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“The war has not achieved the goals Washington had in mind . ”
Posted by: Cheryl | Feb 18 2024 17:03 utc | 33
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In terms of taking down Russia or “Putin”, sure. In terms of various other goals (arguably secondary\tertiary) they have achieved some. By no means the full list, but just for an example or two, taking vassal germany (and some others) down by cutting it off from cheaper ru natgas, to their own benefit. Another secondary was profits and orders for MIC spending all while saddling mainly the EU at large with costs of immigration wave. Tertiary Get both sides to continue the depopulation destruction of Ukraine and diverting ru spending (and frozen reserves) they otherwise would have put to better use.
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“The fall of Avdeevka triggered the retreat of many units; if the Russians continue the pressure”
—
re that,
Indeed, but since when have we really seen the Russian side continue the pressure when they have a group “on the run” to an extent. I can’t think of a time in this conflict yet outside of the opening months. In the past it’s seemed a lack of follow-on forces available to exploit such opportunities, or risk aversion (for better or worse idk).
Perhaps they (RUAF) are in a position to do that in this case, but as of yet (the dust is still settling…but that’s exactly the time to exploit), not seeing it materialize outside of maybe lastochkne. We’ll see soon enough, but I sense it’s a very short window, one that may have already closed considering we’re usually getting info at public level belatedly.
—
Posted by: Honzo | Feb 18 2024 20:28 utc | 75
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Yup, as alluded too in ^, lot of forces still in that area, not sure window to do break out from adv is as open as some think. shrug, we’ll see.
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“Tass quotes retired Ukrainian officer Igor Lapin saying that the city of Zaporizhzhia is preparing for capitulation. ”
Posted by: Marvin | Feb 18 2024 20:40 utc | 76
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Igor getting a little ahead of himself imho. It’s 35km drive a way, with some pretty challenging terrain features in between. Long road to hoe before getting there imho.
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Posted by: Oliver Krug | Feb 18 2024 21:16 utc | 81
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Look it’s great that adv is finally taken, but it didn’t happen over night, it took ~9 years of work, lots of blood, and months of dedicated specific effort. Ru should celebrate the victory, and the folks in Donetsk even more, but while the daily sounds of war from the northwest will be more muted now, the 155 and himars rounds landing on them isn’t going to abate too much, since mid 2023 most of that hasn’t actually originated from inside avd. Like you mention I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Ukr pulls PR strike of targeting civs there (or elsewhere) in the coming days either.

Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 19 2024 10:43 utc | 187

Posted by: Jo | Feb 18 2024 21:22 utc | 82
Depleting own stocks is a great strategy.
Posted by: Mario | Feb 18 2024 21:36 utc | 84
Years ago one DK political party wanted to replace the military
with an answering machine “we capitulate” when being voted into power.
ref: https://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/a-431929.html

Posted by: MAKK | Feb 19 2024 11:00 utc | 189

Posted by: jpc | Feb 19 2024 9:59 utc | 182
Half of the problems of Germany economy would be solved by exposing the authors of ns blows, tell them to fuck off, remove useless sanctions with RF and start doing business as before. 😉

Posted by: Mario | Feb 19 2024 11:16 utc | 191

Posted by: Activist Potato | Feb 19 2024 4:02 utc | 148
Prigozhin’s death, though shocking at the time, has proven to be entirely justified and has cleared the air of whatever residue might otherwise have persisted, but I think you’ve done the subject a disservice by mashing it all together, getting critical elements the wrong way around, and ended up with a mess that likely misinforms anyone who wasn’t trying to follow it at the time so I’ll present how I see it as an alternative analysis:

I have been thinking about Prigozhin and Wagner lately…thinking about what a scumbag Prig was and how unimportant he is in the greater scheme of things. In retrospect, and at fleeting times in the moment, he was the most obvious of traitors. His public tantrums were attributed by some to Russian ‘maskirovka.’ I think this was hopeful but wrong. Just before his “march” on Moscow, his blatantly traitorous public declarations undermining the entire cause of the Russian SMO screamed out like a bad Hollywood script, …

I think there was an almost Trumpian self interest to Prigozhin, perhaps a Ruso-Trumpian quality overall, that pushed him to orchestrate his obscene “rebellion” in an attempt to retain control over the wealth and power of the Wagner formation in the face of an officially sanctioned scheme to defang Prigozhin and absorb Wagner’s forces into regular military command structures. That Prigozhin was dangerously volatile is not now on question.
Agreed that talk of Maskirovka was BS and serves as an warning against taking that kind of formulaic response at face value, I don’t put any more stock in claims of higher dimensionality or “doesn’t matter” either, but I see Prigozhin as a ruthless opportunist and self-promoter, who set himself against the politically dominant faction of the Russian MoD for his own benefit, but not a traitor as such.
Take senior figures from any military-bureaucratic-industrial complex and present them with a scenario that is enormously to their disadvantage, see how loyal they are then. If you judge Prigozhin to have been disloyal rather than a traitor you should clarify as much.

one can easily imagined was prepared by the idiots on our side, who think that perception is reality, that his pronouncement that Russia was to blame would magically overturn the lived experience of thousands of victims in the Donbass and neutralize their say in the matter. It is amazing how hardly anybody talks about him now. Very much like hardly anybody talks about Gorbachev.

One shouldn’t. Russia’s worst enemies did nothing but authentically attack Prigozhin, and everything he did and claimed to stand for, before his “rebellion”, they gloated at his impending demise (how they knew ahead of time is worth pondering) and crowed over his death.
Towards the end Prigozhin made some wildly false claims about the genesis of the conflict (reports of finding a large stash of cocaine are eminently believable) but he also aired grievances that would be no surprise to a Russian audience and whose substance is only disputed by the financially motivated …. Prigozhin spoke in his own interest but what was true or false takes more effort to determine.
Unlike Gorbachev, the absurd sellout creep, Prigozhin was someone the “west” genuinely seemed discomforted by, those who are glad to see the back of him for primarily self-interested reasons make for truly unlikely and unfortunate bedfellows.
That’s all I have on the subject, which is little enough, so I would greatly prefer to hear the perspectives of Russian commentators who don’t have an axe to grind or sponsorship to earn.

Posted by: anon2020 | Feb 19 2024 11:32 utc | 193

Posted by: jpc | Feb 19 2024 11:24 utc | 192
With no end to that in sight, in fact it’s spread.

Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 19 2024 11:38 utc | 195

In addition to the alleged sabotaged ammo train I noticed this one this morning:

[machine translated]
On the night from Saturday to Sunday, Lviv underground fighters cut out the guards at the Lviv plant at Antonovicha/116 with knives, after which they doused the facility with gasoline and burned it to the ground. The fire covered an area of ​​more than 400 sq.m.
The news in the Ukrainian segment of the Internet was modest, in one line, neither the causes of the fire nor the plant’s products were mentioned.
❗️The burned plant actually produced 5,000 UAVs per month for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Their products include Furiya UAV, Leleka 100, RAM II UAV and other types of UAV.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/113572

Posted by: knighthawk | Feb 19 2024 12:03 utc | 197

Posted by: Honzo | Feb 19 2024 2:07 utc | 138
Thank you again.
Your thoughts here are very much in line with my own regarding the initial phases of the SMO and now the current developments. But you express them much better than I could.
I shall continue reading and learning from your future posts.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Feb 19 2024 12:32 utc | 199